== Why are we at war again? ==
I'll be concise here, laying down reasons why thousands of U.S. service members - and eventually millions of the rest of us are being thrown into danger amid gaudy explosions that terrify - and sometimes kill - a people we want as friends.. I'll briefly offer some bullet points, many of them I've already elucidated, in other locales. But one thing is certain...
...that this is not about Iran's nuclear program. Sure, the Mission Accomplished 'deal' that Donald Trump will eventually bray will claim that's the reason for it all. It's not. Even remotely.
1. Elsewhere, I speak of Republican Bipolar Foreign Policy. The GOP always ... and I mean literally always... veers sharply between isolationism and imperial thuggery. We saw this manic-depressive mania under Nixon, Reagan, Ford, and both Bushes (remember the Neocons braying "We're an empire now!").
2. When Republican presidents do wage war, it is with an unmistakably different style of military action than Democratic presidents. I've seen no one comment on this, even though it expresses a fundamental difference in character. And yes, it expresses diametrically opposite attitudes toward the fantastically professional men and women of the US military officer corps....
3. ...whose demoralization is a core aim of the Trumpists. Take how Pete "Filthy Fingers"* Hegseth commanded 500 of the world's finest professionals -- generals, admirals and top sergeants - to drop their work all over the world and hurry to Quantico, where 'former' alky Hegs and Trump berated them as "too fat and too woke to fight." just 6 weeks before they performed the most spectacularly complex and competent raid (in Caracas) in the history of the world. A raid that exposed many of our secret methods and tools to scrutiny, without liberating any Venezuelans from their criminal masters (We'll say more on that.)
But yes. Demoralization and culling of the Officer Corps is a feature, not a bug. Trump fired the JAGs whose task includes advising military folks about the legality of orders. And he's been reaming out dozens of flag officers who demur over sending boots into American cities. Now why would he do that?
4. Then there's distraction. Trump is not the first to use war to divert attention away from domestic failures and discontents. Nixon did it. Reagan several times. As did Bush Jr. But Donald Trump is truly desperate to sidetrack. Now with Operation Epstein Slurry... I mean Epic Fury.
Which brings us to something that many of you keep falling for.
5. This Iran war is not even remotely about oil. Except as he's been able to get Venezuelan oil export revenues diverted into offshore slush accounts that he controls. And sure, he likely intends the same re: Iran. And starving Cuba could lead to the option described below. But the USA - as a nation - does not benefit from war-seized oil. We got none from the Iraq wars - and I want you to read this sentence several times, till that fact sinks in. "We did Iraq for oil" is an idiotic incantation worthy of MAGA.
Anyway, the US got energy independence under Obama and is a net exporter. So STFU about that cliché.
6. Except that shutting down Iranian oil does boost world prices, benefiting his fellow oligarchs. So, okay. Maybe a bit.Indirectly.
7. This is not about toppling despots! Decapitating the top capo of the Venezuelan and Iranian gangs is classic mafia technique, that is not meant to liberate the people of those countries! DT has already made offers to the Iranian Republican Guard and Religious Police etc to make deals with him to stay in power, in exchange for them kissing his ring. In Venezuela, Argentina, El Salvador etc. - and possibly soon in Cuba - the aim is never, ever to establish democracy or to liberate citizens from their oppressors.
The pattern is perfectly that of mafiosi. Take over another gang's territory by decapitating its top capo, then get allegiance (and resulting vigorish) from the terrified sub-capos of the gang that's left in place. This pattern is now so repeatedly blatant that no other theory is even remotely tenable,
Oh, and Marco will ensure that Miami crime families will slip in atop the Castro power structure in Cuba. This is a Mafia gang and the capo di tutti capi - even above Don - was named Vlad. Though the power of his blackmail files to coerce western elites into obedience may be fading! For reasons I'll go into, elsewhere. (Hint: because of AI.)
8. I mentioned the exposure of hard-won military secrets and methods, each time we go to physical war. Sometimes, that can't be helped. Russian and Chinese observers are all over eastern Ukraine, for example. Mostly amazed by the brilliance and effectiveness of most Western systems and studying hard how to copy or counter them. But Ukraine is an actual need. Perhaps Iran is, too. But this factor belongs on the balance sheet.
9. Russia's interest. Look up The Great Game of the 19th Century between the Russian and British Empires, as the former kept maneuvering and jostling, trying to win its way to a southern, ice-free port into the Indian Ocean and from there to the rest of the world. Iran/Persia was always a major part of that great-powers struggle and if most in the west don't remember it, you can be sure that Russians do. Above all, the very last thing they want is a free, secular and democratic Iran. Far better to divide power there with the Trumpist gang. Whose relations with Putin are the ghosts at the banquet.
10. Okay, this final reason for the war is harsh. It is speculative, but makes perfect sense,
Another aim is to foment anger, to re-enrage the forces in the Middle East who want to do terrorism on America. Riling up enough enemies to deliver us into another 9/11 attack. One that Old Two Scoops imagines might save him from having to face devastating elections, this fall.
Do I have any evidence for that last one? Other than vows of revenge that are already echoing across the region, for the blatantly dumb targeted assassination of Iran's 82-year old paramount religious leader?
Well, it would explain why Don fired over half of our counter-terrorism folks. And can you think of anything less than a major national trauma that'd provide the excuse he needs for martial law?
Put it all together folks.
Prepare, in that event, to chant "Reichstag Fire!"
But also keep in mind another word. One that shows we finally understand what's going on. Phase 9 of the 25 year recurring psychic schism between pro- and anti-modernity Americans. Our never settled civil war. And hence one word that will efficiently show our grit, our determination, our courage... our firm intent.
APPOMATTOX.
* Filthy Fingers Hegseth. Look up how many times, on Fox, he (drunkenly) bragged: "I don't believe in germs; I haven't washed my hands in a decade." Though I'll admit. Most Trump appointees are even more crazy and even less qualified.
62 comments:
Spotted another (which may be a variant on #8)
U.S. war in Iran risks depleting munitions for Ukraine now, Taiwan later
I tend to be wary about accusations that military campaigns are meant as domestic distractions. Not this time.
David,
That's an interesting theory for the war.
I must say that Trump is conducting war a bit differently than prior administrations. Trump 2.0 seems determined not to put boots on the ground. Our twin "forever wars" taught him that these actions end up destroying political power.
Instead, he seems intent on sending air power and special forces in to break stuff,, and hope the populace will rise up and topple the existing power structure. Historically, it took ground pounders to topple governments. Air power alone wasn't enough. Wiping out the leadership class combined with air power and special forces raiders is kinda a new strategy for regime change. Who knows if it will work.
This is ENTIRELY consistent with you likening it to a mob war, especially with targeting the top leaders. Before, conventional war strategy didn't aim for elites with the idea that if you knocked them off, you'd have no one to surrender. It was also convenient for the elites to feel safe. If you target top leadership, the other guys might retaliate.
What use is it getting to the top if you're too dead to enjoy your loot?
Now that Trump is stuffing treasure into his pockets unlike most prior presidents, this manner of warfare makes sense. However, you imply that Obama should get credit for making the US oil independent. I don't really think he did much to achieve it. The primary reason was the oil industry developing fracking tech, isn't really something the lw likes much.
Obama was pushing green energy initiatives, and the oil industry short circuited this move by learning to get production from fields that weren't profitable before. So, to me, our current energy independence was more in spite of lw politicians.
Corrections. The amount of munitions used to hit Iran is - my completely amateur impression - very minor compared to any day of Ukraine.
JV Trump does NOT want a successful democratic uprising in Iran. That would be an un-controllable democracy. I give odds he'll make a deal to leave Ayatollah types in Charge... tho here's an essential conflict with Israel, who want Iranian democracy since Iranian city folk like Israel and would restore that only alliance.
So if Treebeard is right, then I'll be wrong and democracy will prevail, dest[ite Trump's mafia wishes.
JV you may be right but I'll gladly (simplistically) give BHO credit.
The pattern is perfectly that of mafiosi. Take over another gang's territory by decapitating it's top capo, then get allegiance (and resulting vigorish) from the terrified sub-capos of the gang that's left in place.
No argument here, as both the Mafia & the US federal government utilize violence (or the threat of violence) as a foundational tool to compel obedience, establish order and enforce rules within their respective spheres of influence.
It's hardly a new observation either, ever since John Brunner offered up the same analysis in his 1975 novel 'Shockwave Rider', but one that's been adequately addressed by Robert Heinlein, A.E. Van Vogt, the OST's 'A Piece of the Action' episode and the glorious US Second Amendment.
It's also the entire rationale behind all of our fine host's 'Union Kepi' blather, too.
To which I reply:
You're singing to the choir, brother, though my cap be grey and my flag be bonnie blue, and we'll all be fine here, thank you, as opposed to an unarmed EU, now occupied by 50+ million foreign males, making it well & truly screwed.
Best
We've already lost the war with Iran for the same reason that Putin lost the war in Ukraine.
Drones.
Cheap, simple , effective and deadly drones that can be made in any garage using parts from radio shack have changed warfare as much as tanks did in WW2. All this high tech weaponry and all we've done is recreate stalemate trench warfare of WW1
And Iran is world's premier producer of drones:
(Summary from ChatGPT)
is iran the world's biggest producer of drones?
Iran is not definitively the world's largest overall producer of drones, but it has emerged as a major global power in low-cost, loitering munition (kamikaze) drones. While China dominates the global commercial and consumer drone market (over 70% share via DJI), Iran leads in producing cheap, effective, and battle-tested military drones, with Russia now mass-producing Iranian-designed drones.
Key Details on Iran's Drone Capabilities:
Mass Production Capability: Iran has moved from a regional player to a global supplier, with the ability to produce thousands of drones (such as the Shahed-136) at low cost.
Russia Partnership: Russia is manufacturing Iranian-designed drones (Geran-2) in a facility in Tatarstan, aiming to produce thousands annually, which leverages Iranian design with Russian manufacturing.
Key Models: The Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 are widely used, notably in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Global Proliferation: Iran has exported drone technology to multiple countries and proxies, including Sudan, Venezuela, Tajikistan, and Hezbollah.
While Ukraine has recently reported high, localized production numbers (up to 4 million drones annually, including small FPV drones), Iran remains a top player in the specific, strategic category of long-range, loitering
(End summary)
A single kamikaze drone costs between $100 and $55,000 depending on range and sophistication.
By comparison a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) costs $125 million and carries cargo worth $130 million.
Do the math.
There is no defense against a swarm of 100 drones when only one of them has to get through.
Like I said, we've already lost.
That and not having a strategic plan to actually win the war doesn't help either.
Dr. Brin,
I think he DOES want an uprising to put pressure on Iran's leaders to cave. Doesn't mean he won't hang them out to dry when they've served his purpose.
If we really cared about freedom we would be invading the far worse regime in North Korea.
But then NoKo doesn't have any oil.
Funny how we only liberate countries that have oil.
If I'm reading your ladder of logic,
(a) Your premise is that Iran wins the war as long as their are able to maintain a blockade of the straights of Hormuz.
(b) From that premise, you then examine "does Iran have the capability to maintain a blockade on Hormuz indefinitely"? You conclude that it can, and therefore that Iran will win in the end.
I'm not convinced by your premise.
The US doesn't import oil from the Persian gulf, so I don't think a blockade of Hormuz is going to be devastating for the US economy.
What does "winning" look like for the US?
(1) destroy (or at least heavily attrit) Iranian nuclear capabilities. - closing Hormuz has nothing to do with that
and/or
(2) regime change in Iran - closing Hormuz to tanker traffic doesn't prevent that either.
(3) make Trump look good (for arbitrary values of "good") - I don't think sinking tankers is going to have much impact here. Sinking the Abraham Lincoln would, of course. But She's a pretty hard target for drones unless she wanders to close inland.
Heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"Iran's totally-obliterated nuclear program healed as quickly as Trump's ear."
This morning's BIG STORY on France24 seems to support Celt's assessment:
How will the Iranian Conflict affect the Summer Travel Season?
The West has become so decadent, trivial & unserious that it has already lost.
Best
Also heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"The only difference between Trump and Jim Jones is that Trump would charge you for the Kool-Aid*."
* Yes, I know it was really Flavor-Aid. We've known for centuries that "oxygen" is a misnomer, but what can you do?
So the dow, which started with a loss Monday morning has almost recovered to its Friday afternoon close.
And oil prices, while up from Friday's $67/barrel were only as high as $73 before retreating back closer to $70.
What do the Epstein Class know that we don't?
Celt,Iran has three paths and only one includes attacking us.
1: most likely. The IRG etc cut a Mafia deal with Trump. Israel would prefer full democratic conversion since they know they are popular on the streets. But they can live with this. Putin can live with it.
2. Complete popular uprising is successful, Full transition to modernity and democracy. I cannot vouch for Netanyahu (damn him) but most Israelis and Americans would want this. But Putin and Trump would hate it.
3. The Iranian regime resists Trump effectively and galvanizes a resurgence in world terrorism. This benefits Trump in the biggest way, because a new 9/11 excuses martial law in the US.
"No argument here, as both the Mafia & the US federal government utilize violence (or the threat of violence) as a foundational tool to compel obedience..." Garbage. An adversarially accountable and transparent justice system and a government that is regularly and competitively audited is not a mafia gang. But we've learned that it can be dismantled and corrupted by traitors.
Unserious? Because a travel professional is worried about travel? Gawd you are clutching at straws. Europe is re-arming and training hard. Putin made a BIG mistake getting distracted and letting his own forces wither, revealed as incompetent buffoons. A pack of grumpy Finnish cub scouts could march into St. Petersburg. And be welcomed as liberators.
Cplus, are you saying the collapse of European and Asian economies won't negatively impact the US? The world financial system? International trade? Ruin our alliances and diplomatic standing?
We don't have to be directly affected in order to be wrecked by Iranian drone strikes.
The IRG won't be rational after this. Think of a much larger and more radical Taliban on steroids, with larger numbers, more sophisticated technology and better financing. All we've done is disturb the wasps nest.
My advice to everyone is not to get on board a plane anytime soon.
You all have to watch this interview with Prof Jiang who predicted that Trump would win in 2024, he would attack Iran, and that America would lose that war.
https://youtu.be/4Ql24Z8SIeE?si=Qtj7_jlqshAuQfS2
Iran's primary weapon would be drones attacking the most important facilities in the middle east.
Desalination plants.
For example, if they destroy Riyahd's desalination plant a city of 10 million would be without water in two weeks.
That's easy to do with cheap drones.
Without desalination the Gulf countries can't function. They are then unable to underwrite the American economy with investments in AI data centers the current linchpin of the American economy. Everything collapses like a house of cards.
When our fine host says Europe is re-arming and training hard, I believe that he is referring to 'Readiness 2030', a 5 year plan that promises European military preparedness by 2030, a prospect that has most likely reduced Putin to a state of abject terror, possibly due to his passing familiarity with Soviet-style 5 year plans.
And, yes, a promise to defend yourself from violence FIVE YEARS FROM NOW is the very definition of 'unserious', especially when faced with violence today.
I expect little else from a meek & conquered people who still rely on the protection of the US Mafia & Don Trumpeone, lo these many years.
I served in all commissioned ranks from second lieutenant to Major General. And during that period I spent most of my time being a high-class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street, and for the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer for capitalism. I suspected I was just part of the racket all the time. Now I am sure of it.
These were the words of Major General Smedley Butler, the most decorated US Marine in American History & author of the revelatory tell-all called War is a Racket, published in 1935. It's a short read.
https://archive.org/details/war_is_a_racket_1903_librivox
Best
The regime wins the war if it survives and maintains a stranglehold on their citizens.
Trump wins the war if it successfully deflects from his (other) crimes, misdemeanors, plots & failures, If He can affect the November elections.
To a lesser degree, this also true for Bibi.
The Arabs win the war if they can leave the Iran shattered, disunited, ruined and in civil war. They have acted in such manner in Africa, Sudan.I doubt the Arab Lords want a stable Iranian democracy.
European reliance on Oil/Gas
Europe used to be very very relant on supplies of oil and gas from Russia
Then Russia invaded Ukraine and Europe did two things
(1) Arrange for supplies from other countries
(2) Accelerate the transition to renewables
The US/Iran war will disrupt (1) - which is important but is much less important than it was due to (2)
And with China reducing its need for gas (renewables) there are a number of non middle-east countries that have been staring down the barrel of a massive drop in demand and will be able to step into the gap
locum knows what reality he wants to live in. He doesn't dare read and understand what, say, Canadian analyst Shankar Narayan has to say about tracking European disengagement from US dependency as fast as can be managed, and simultaneously building out a new web of trade agreements that are not subject to the whims of a single man. Yes, it will take some time for Europe to fully cut the cords to Washington, but Johnson's saying about hanging and concentration applies. Besides, regardless of what Russia, America, or even Hungary say, the Ukrainians will be continuing to build out their synergies with Europe. Four years of blood, sweat and tears have transformed Ukraine into the world's foremost authority on drone warfare. Even if Ukraine's strategic campaign to hamstring Russia's logistics eliminates the land threat, the Europeans are going to take over whatever components of NATO they can extract and build a new model armed forces with it.
'Meek and conquered' rhymes with 'nation of shopkeepers' or with 'yellow-bellied Yankees'. Fans of 'martial cultures' always sneer at methodical, slow-to-anger democracies. But Napoleonic France, Confederate America, the Axis, and now Putinist Russia burned themselves out with performative displays, while Regency Britain, the Union, the Allies, and the European Union built for the long haul. None of them found easy or quick victories -- but victory they found.
War, by the way, is a racket. We were such towards the 'banana republics' in the first half of the century, and Butler spoke truth with every word. Memetically, the whole point of changing to a Department of Defense was to steer away from that paradigm without dropping our guard; the 'racket' switched from plundering abroad to pork-barreling at home, which Eisenhower warned about. Switching back to War was a deliberate signal that the old racket was back in town, and lo and behold, the regime has proceeded on exactly that path.
With American credibility making a lovely light in the fireplace, the fat and lazy dinosaurs of the Military-Industrial Complex are staring at lean times ahead... unless they can replace foreign trade with supplying fascist oppressors instead. Did you know ICE is buying military equipment like hotcakes on Mardi Gras?
Iran and Russia both need components from the West and China to build their drones. We can do far better... if we learn from the Ukrainians instead of talking down to them, if we can get nimble startups to do the job rather than the dinosaurs, and if we can get strategy out of the hands of careerists and men still plotting post-imperial counterinsurgency training.
Big ifs, but then five years ago, I would have said locum was right about the Europeans. Needs must when the devil drives, and we have devils aplenty at the moment.
Oh, and I almost forgot to comment on an unarmed EU, now occupied by 50+ million foreign males, making it well & truly screwed.
'Unarmed' how? Not militarily (see above). 'Unarmed' in the sense that European nations (except Switzerland) do not have 2nd Amendment societies? (And even the Swiss keep their weapons under lock and key.) But then the lack of guns applies equally to those locum deems 'foreign'.
I can only come up with '50M+ foreign males' by including all intra-European migrations as well as all intra-European minority groups. Am I supposed to be fretting about the Romani in Bulgaria, or the Serbs in Hungary and Hungarians in Serbia? Occitans in Italy and Catalans in Spain? Is Britain truly destabilized by having residents from other parts of the Commonwealth?
And even if there were a mass migration crisis ongoing (instead of a spike in 2015 generated primarily by foreign actors attempting deliberate destabilization of Europe), what makes anyone think the migrants want to 'screw' their hosts? Why would the vast majority of them not want a society much like the one they moved to? What impulse is preventing such a future?
I'm just asking questions, right?
Will TACO save us from this forever war?
And by the way, kudos to Joe Haldeman for giving us the phrase 'forever war'.
https://hotair.com/generalissimo/2026/03/02/i-got-him-before-he-got-me-they-tried-twice-well-i-got-him-first-n3812419
A long post about the real reasons for attacking Iran and the word “Israel” never appears once? Absurd. Your blind spots and biases are so big you’re beclowning yourself now.
@John Viril Yeah, bomb a country, kill its spiritual leader, blow up government buildings, police stations, hospitals, schools—that’s how you get people to side with you against their government. You’ll be greeted with flowers just like Iraq and Afghanistan. What an insane idea. When has that ever worked?
@Celt More importantly, North Korea isn’t an immediate concern of Israel and the wacko cultists who worship it.
@mcsandberg That is some pure clown world zio-Christian neocon analysis. I bet this dude was doing the same triumphalist dance a few days into the Afghan and Iraq wars too. These freaks sniff their own glue so hard they can’t distinguish exceptionalist delirium from reality, no matter how many times they fail. The only thing you can do with their kind is put them down like rabid dogs, imo.
And props to governor Newsom for mentioning the 150 girls killed at an Iranian school and asking what the imminent threat was justifying what amounts to state terrorism. Were they shooting are your ships, Alfred? Congrats America, you're a rogue state now--the villains of your own deranged movie.
This would be monumentally stupid.
The North Koreans maintain a large army by starving he populous... and they can rain ruin on nearby South Korean cities.
We don't f*ck with them because it's not worth it.
Freedom isn't priceless. It always comes with a price.
I won't be defending shooting at schools... here or there.
I don't see Iranian leadership as a threat. Much.
I don't minding shooting back at them, though, when they send missiles to kill ships and pilots who are out there to suppress piracy.
Best explanation as to why weak minded fools and bigots will never leave the maga cult
https://youtu.be/eqDJP7SaGO0?si=VRd3iubEBWhKo4yl
There are four reasons
Leaving the Trump cult means losing their personal identity and community, which is why any attack on Trump is seen as an attack on themselves. And therefore facts mean nothing to them.
Trump followers live in their own digital version of a cult compound, a media version of the branch davidian compound or Manson family ranch. The first rule of any cult is to isolate it's members from family. With face book algorithms and right wind hate casting MAGA can self isolate.
Trump keeps his cult hooked on vengeance and fear. They need those dopamine hits they get from hating Hispanics gays trans Muslims DEI liber media, etc. Trump promises to hurt these bad people, making his followers feel safe. That dopamine hit is the reason why they don't mind their shitty lives caused by Trump's own policies provide the people they hate and fear are hurt. Cruelty and violence are the points.
Leaving means losing everything, especially the pain of having to admit they were wrong. Being part of a tribe is a great emotional fix forgotten people in dying towns without a future. Trump made them feel powerful for the first time in their pathetic lives.
So what can we do to help these people?
Not a damn thing.
Because you can't fix stupid.
They know he is a p3do and protecting other p3dos. They know he is corrupt and incompetent. They know he is a racist hatemonger as are they. They know he is burning down America and poisoning everything good about America.
And they don't care.
They love it.
So fuck them.
They deserve every bit of suffering coming their way from loss of health care to homes to good paying jobs.
Yeah, fuck these guys.
A single boomer off shore from noko can turn the country into radioactive glass with 5 minutes warning.
Obviously alfred you just don't love freedom enough.
And the fact remains that we only "liberate" countries with oil.
"More importantly, North Korea isn’t an immediate concern of Israel..."
Was Venezuela a concern of Israel? I think your own blind spots are showing.
I'm not disputing that Israel had much to do with the attack on Iran, nor that there's an Epstein connection. But to you, every problem seems like the metaphorical nail.
"So what can we do to help these people?"
It's been obvious for quite some time that we can't save MAGAts from the consequences of their own stupidity. The pertinent question is what can we do to minimize the harm they cause the rest of us.
This is an accurate desciption of what happened:
Not one, not two, but thirty pieces of ordinance that go boom were dropped on the Khamenei compound in the first wave of Shock and Awe II: Shockier and Much More Awesome. Thirty. And the eyes and ears on the ground were so prevalent that the photographic proof of the Supreme Leader's dead body had reached Jerusalem and Washington, and then the rest of the world, before the Iranians could find somebody who knew someone who had once met someone else they believed was once in the chain of command somewhere.
Five hundred distinct targets were struck from land, sea, and air over a surface area roughly the size of Alaska. By mid-day Sunday, that number of targets had reached well over 1,000. The U.S. claims to have sunk nine ships in Iran's Navy. Mobile missile launchers were quickly targeted and dispatched by the hundreds. Iranian inventories of F-4's and drones dwindled with each precision strike. By Sunday night, American B-2's had come calling to blow up several underground ballistic missile storage bays.
The Iranians starting point for their negotiations was:
“ In that first meeting, both the Iranian negotiators said to us directly, with no shame, that they controlled 460 kilograms of 60% and they're aware that that could make 11 nuclear bombs, and that was the beginning of their negotiating stance. So that's - they were proud of it.
They were proud that they had evaded all sorts of oversight protocols to get to a place where they could deliver 11 nuclear bombs.
When someone says that, you’ve got to bomb them—and we did. [ https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2026/03/03/trumps-top-middle-east-negotiator-dropped-a-bombshell-about-iran-and-its-nuke-program-last-night-n2672184 ]
Ok, maybe it just took another day for the implications to sink in.
Dow down 1500 so far today
Oil up to $77/barrel
Out of all the drooling nonsense spewed by MCS and the ent, Treebeard's first sentence was actually on-target. It's true that I obitted Israel's - or Netanyahu's - role in inciting this war. They have three reasons:
1. Weaken the one state on the planet that is openly frothing for death to all Jews (DTAJ), instead of giving lip service to that 80 year goal (as has been ranted in every Wahabbi financed Arab textbook given to children across the Middle East.)
2. Strengthen growing alliances with the Sunni states Iran is bombing, despite their own continuing to push DTAJ... as does Treebeard and MCS.
3. maintain the Netanyahu-Trump alliance.
#3 is a tragic madness. But note that 1&2 do not necessarily work with Trump's interests.
Dig it. BenjNetanyahu is a wretch and a criminal. But unlike Putin and Trump, BN does not seek to WEAKEN AMERICA. A strong America is in Israel's interest. And second, Israel benefits immensely if the Iranian people succeed in restoring democracy and modernity. That will end the threat permanently, whereas Trump's mafia deal with Ayatollahs will not.
Despite many connections, I have no special knowledge about this war. Still, here are some things folks might watch:
(1) Harbor cams in Norfolk, San Diego and Bremerton. If all the ships vanish - especially all the carriers - then the Navy knows something we're not being told and you should do that big Costco run. (Do it anyway.) In fact, if the carriers vanish - or all of the transports from March AFB or Fort Bragg - put out an alert.
(2) Can anyone tell if the urban barracks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the morals police etc. or their strongholds in Tehran have been targeted? Or the gates of the political prisons? Things that would actually weaken the regime's ability to repress citizens? If all of those have been spared, then it supports the notion that our mafia boss wants to make a deal with their mafia, after decapitating their boss-capos and beating them up a bit. And screw the people. As he screwed Venezuelans and the people of Argentina and El Salvador.
(3) Now that Trump has re-ignited Middle-Eastern terrorism (our skilled professionals who off'd bin Laden had it quelled), we need to get word out, around the world:
"Hey, angry young men with your super-empowered means of taking revenge: if you truly do want to hurt Trump, then do NOT give him the thing he most wants, as a result of all this: a traumatic super 9/11 exuse to slam down martial law.
"If you quell your wrath and show patience, America will deal with these wretches. As the People of Iran and Venezuela, etc. will eventually get rid of theirs. And Zelensky will help decent Russians to rid the world of the capo-di-tuttii-capi.
"But if you just can't control your rage, then hey, do not to attack New York again! Or California or any blue state that's on record deeply opposing the Confederate-Putinist monsters who hijacked our military to use as YeeHaw! toys of jizz-spasm violence. Mobsters who would stupidly make a martyr of an 86 year old tottering religious leader."
This war is a spasm by... for... and of the Confederate States of America, (phase nine). Do a search on that name and look at who empowered all the craziness. I am not asking you to attack those neighbors, who eventually will snap out of their madness. Please don't!
Still, look at a map, will you?
It ain't us, babe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/02/mideast-iran-israel-war-civilians/
A strong America that bombs Israel's enemies is in their interests. That's all these tribal psychos care about. If things change here, as they’re going to, and we get leaders who aren't sold out to Netanyahu and the zio-militants, the zios will discard America in a heartbeat and become its enemy. These are people with rabbis who make statements like "a million gentile lives aren't worth a single Jewish fingernail", and political leaders who make genocidal statements that a large fraction of the Israeli population agrees with. These are not America’s friends; they have no loyalty to American ideals, American people or anybody outside their tribe. Israel has a lot of these psychos, their power is growing, and they actually do have nukes. That is a menace to humanity far more dangerous than the timid old men in Tehran. And if we could take a poll, I’d wager that about 90% of the world’s population agrees with me. So maybe it’s not democracy that’s the issue, but the attitudes and behavior of the og exceptionalist-supremacist cultists, who apparently think they can wage war on the world and win because a genocidal tribal god is on their side.
I highly doubt Trump has much strategy beyond: "make things go boom! and get the blackmailers and donors off my back". You are giving him too much credit. The fact that Trump has done a 180, turned against many of his own biggest supporters and become worse than the neocons he claimed to be against tells you who must have the goods on him. How else do you explain his political suicide? Hint #1: it ain't Putin; he’s a friend of Iran. Hint #2: it probably has something to do with the Epstein and Mossad-connected Maxwell prostitution/blackmail ring. Is 2+2=4 still too simple for you?
How much you want to bet that Trump doesn't have an exit strategy?
I want to be normal again.
I want those days back when Ronald Regan and Tip O'Neal could have a beer together after 5 o'clock.
@Celt: Exit strategies are details for inferior minions.
All true leaders of men / Delegate now and then / Try to keep their minds totally blank
To appreciate loftier matters / Things that mostly go over my head
(Five points to anyone who gets that reference without assistance.)
It has been readily stated for many years that Netanyahu ("Bibi"), MBS (Prince "Bonesaw" of Saud), and MBZ ("Bribemaster" of Abu Dhabi) specifically have been maneuvering our wannabe emperor into launching this war for years. Along with Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Hungary, and a few other autocracy-curious influencers, this is the transnational (even 'globalist'?) mafia conspiracy now trying to do business openly as the so-called "Board of Peace".
Has anyone spelled out whose bombs hit that school? I find it difficult in the extreme for even suborned American military personnel to target a girls' school... but you could find Israelis and Sunnis who would, and Russians wouldn't think twice. It is in the interests of all autocratic parties, including the Iranian regime, to tell everyone Americans did such a thing. I suspect there are people in three-letter-agencies who know the answer, and are staying mum while a known foreign asset occupies the office of the DNI.
As for leaving MAGA, the trouble is that MAGA builds on multiple prior projects to cultivate cults of victimhood in rural parts of the United States. The movement-conservatism project, with its religious-right, gun-nut, talk-radio/Foxite, 'libertarian', and other fronts, has been building back the mindset once derided as 'Birchers' since the Ford administration.
Prior to that was the 'cowboy' propaganda nurturing the notion of government by vigilante. The pulp fiction and superhero genres were failed attempts to create the same notion in other media, but authors and artists were able to mostly wrench the themes towards supporting civilization. Even generations of effort could not erase the origins entirely, but it is striking that projects like Watchmen and The Boys are seen as subversions of the genre -- when they actually harken to what the genre was originally funded to be! Horror stayed closer to the mark -- read N.K. Jemisin's Cities duology for a piercing takedown of Lovecraft's virulent racism -- but it mostly wound up becoming a bulwark for domestic patriarchy instead. (First rule of surviving any Hollywood horror flick: utter chastity.)
But the most long-term successful victim-cult of all is that of ye olde Lost Cause. Departing that now-venerable toxicity is hardest of all, given all the layers built over many generations to reinforce the notion that one of the most unforgiving chattel regimes in all history not only deserves sympathy and pity but (by virtue of blood or cultural descent) deserves to command ongoing allegiance.
Dr Brin:
"Out of all the drooling nonsense spewed by MCS and the ent,..."
The impression I'm getting is that those two are not in alignment. MCS is fer the war and Treebeard is agin' it.
* * *
Celt:
"How much you want to bet that Trump doesn't have an exit strategy?"
How much you want to bet that they consider an exit strategy to be a sign of weakness?
Catfish 'N Cod:
"...along with Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Hungary, and a few other autocracy-curious influencers..."
Do you think Putin's Russia wanted us to attack Iran?
I'm really asking.
One of my favourite TV series was "Halt and Catch Fire", because I lived those years and many of those situations. Mnemonics, anagrams, and metaphors were big back then. I get the current fascination with Transformers by tech bros and their AI cultists.
I note that Fiery CPU is an anagram of Epic Fury.
It appears that it was an Iranian missile that hit the school. This video clearly shows it losing trajectory https://pjmedia.com/david-manney/2026/03/02/un-weeps-on-cue-while-tehran-writes-the-script-n4950170
Do not give them a new 9/11
But with the origional 9/11 Bush ended up doing everything that Bin Laden wanted him to do!!
The middle east was (slowly) quieting down and becoming more secular before 9/11 and more importantly the US responce to 9/11
Certainly not. The Mideast powers have wanted this attack for quite a while; I am guessing Russia used its influence via Syria and Lebanon to forestall all-out war. That's one more sign Vlad is no longer top capo -- he can't prevent such things any longer.
If you use their lens, viewing national institutions as assets and the holders of the Purple Files as the actors with agency, what we are watching is less "corruption of American government and world order" and more "maneuvering to manipulate the aging and demented titular capo, as the made men scramble to grab whatever they can." It's not an accurate assessment, but it is useful to predict their actions and viewpoints, because they *do* believe it.
Well ... Russia certainly benefits from the war.
First of all, it distracts from Ukraine (which has, in the last week, almost regained all territory lost during the last Year.)
Second, it increases the oil prices, allowing Russia to survives just a bit longer.
Third, the US are rapidly depleting their stockpiles, and so Ukraine can buy less of it; and certainly, that factor has made Taiwan much more vulnerable, too.
Finally, Putin will have a much easier time justifying his own war crimes.
"the US are rapidly depleting their stockpiles, and so Ukraine can buy less of it"
But doesn't that work the other way too? Iran no longer can supply Russia with excess weaponry?
It's a wash now, LH, but there were downsides as long as Russia still had assets worth protecting in the Mideast. At this point they're barely able to keep up the illusion of conventional progress in Ukraine; Russia will soon go from specialists in asymmetric warfare to being an asymmetry-only power. Which is very far from nothing, but it also won't keep supplies flowing to Siberian outposts and Ukrainian front lines.
Russia insourced a Shahed production line before this, so they aren't SOL. But we are not at all optimized to conduct sustained air war: our doctrine and industrial base assumes we will quickly establish air superiority over absolutely anyone. Kegsbreath and his master have no idea of any of this, of course, and are shocked, shocked to learn that the American armed forces, for the last eighty years, have actually been designed to make outright conquest hard.
Here's a classic of stop-motion from the 1970s. Way... way... WAY pre-AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZJ16X58EDU
I don't believe it. This must be fake.
https://www.militaryreligiousfreedom.org/2026/03/mrff-inundated-with-complaints-of-gleeful-commanders-telling-troops-iran-war-is-part-of-gods-divine-plan-to-usher-in-the-return-of-jesus-christ/
Perhaps one officer did this, maybe two. And even that is frightening. Visit APOCAMON to see what hate-drenched loons - like P Thiel - avidly wish for, wallowing in the Book of Revelation's frothing delusions that are diametrically opposite to every teaching of Jesus in the Beatitudes and in the Sermon on the Mount. Every generation, sadists have pushed that wretched wish fantasy, eagerly calling for gruesome eternal damnation to seize every neighbor or fellow citizen - and all creatures on Earth - who don't happen to chant exactly the same incantation of bilious, masturbatory wrath.
Notes:
1: The BoR became part of Christian canon by ONE vote at an early council and that was by a pagan emperor. Martin Luther despised it, as has every good and decent Christian theologian, ever since.
2. Ingrates take for granted every comfort and brilliance provided by an Age of Science, in which blatantly we are doing the Creator's work as apprentices, learning His skills and craft, as any decent Father would want. Indeed, every exclamation of joyful "Wow!" discovery in a lab is the very best kind of prayer. But yes, you nerds should also read Bible! Get to know the BoR's vile sadism... and its utter, utter refutation. In Isaiah and Daniel and especially in Jonah.
3. BoR fetishists who 'love Israel' do so with a core assumption that they never speak aloud, that Israel must be destroyed in Armageddon and that all but 100,000 Jews (who must repent and convert) will be damned to torment thereupon for all eternity. You may not have known that, but Israelis do, which is why they keep these 'supporters' at arm's length and absolutely refuse to "rebuild the Temple." Which BoR maniacs used to insist is the signal for the end. (A plot element in HEART OF THE COMET!)
Giving up on the Temple thing, they can be relied upon to seek other 'signals.' Like AI-generated jpegs of Trump - the poster child for every one of the Deadly Sins - as their 'agent of the Lord.' When, in fact, he fits down the line, another familiar character in Revelation.
Visit APOCAMON and see what they want for you!
https://www.electricsheepcomix.com/apocamon/
Russia and Turkey are united in not wanting regime change in Iran. Turkey cause of Kurds. Russia for Shaheds.
But the most long-term successful victim-cult of all is that of ye olde Lost Cause. Departing that now-venerable toxicity is hardest of all, given all the layers built over many generations to reinforce the notion that (the most unforgiving regimes in) history not only deserves sympathy and pity but (our) ongoing allegiance.
Catfish's syllogistic repudiation of the Cult of the Lost Cause (aka the Cult of Underdog & 'The Superior Virtue of the Oppressed' fallacy) made me snort coffee out my nose, mostly because every cult-like adherent of Israel, Union Kepis, the LGBT & Climate Change here fancies themselves to be a poor widdle 'victim' who is entitled to use violence against their oppressors by 'punching up'.
I do have some empathy for Israel & absolutely no love for Iran, yet this in no way justifies the selective validation of underdog & victim status for a nuclear-armed Israel over a nuclear-ambitious Iran.
Additionally, I do feel pity for those loser nerds who spend their short lives as victims, cowering in a hole, never recovering from primary school playground abuse, but that does not entitle them to resort to the violence of 'punching up' anymore than the relative unhappiness of their childhood bullies entitles them to 'punch down' upon the nerdish loser.
Even so, one lost cause & one self-identified victim seems just as valid & just as invalid as any other, so until that fine time when our fine host discards his Union kepi and strikes his colours first, I do intend to keep my grey cap and confederate battle flag handy, just in case we have another 'Victim Olympics' anytime soon.
Best
_______
News Alert for Nerds!!!
Robert Carradine, aka 'Lewis Skolnick', star & hero from the 1984 film 'Revenge of the Nerds', has died at age 71 by suicide. It therefore follows that all further Nerd Revenge is eternally cancelled & all nerds everywhere are hereby directed to surrender & grovel at the feet of the nearest jock, baller or fratboy immediately.
That is all.
Elvira Bary has an interesting take on Epstein, etc.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn86C4ZwBSg
That one shows two things. (1) locum's vitamins kicked-in and he's bving very cogent within his context and brain attribute limitations. (2) Those contextsand brain attribute limitations are truly nuts.
While Ukraine has recently regained a substantial chunk of 'open fields' territory in the SE, it has certainly not 'regained nearly all the territory lost during the last year'. In that time, Russia has gained and still holds Huliapole, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Siversk. They've also lost a lot of men and equipment in doing so. Looking at published casualty lists, the fighting now seems to be waged primarily with infantry and drones, but that may be just the season.
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