Saturday, May 03, 2025

This class war has no memory – and that could kill us

Nathan Gardels – editor of Noema magazine – offers in the latest issue a glimpse of the latest philosopher with a theory of history, or historiography. One that I'll briefly critique soon, as it relates much to today's topic. But first...

In a previous issue, Gardels offered valuable and wise insights about America’s rising cultural divide, leading to what seems to be a rancorous illiberal democracy.  

Any glance at the recent electoral stats shows that while race & gender remain important issues, they did not affect outcomes as much as a deepening polar divide between America’s social castes, especially the less-educated vs. more-educated. 


Although he does not refer directly to Marx, he is talking about a schism that my parents understood... between advanced proletariate and ignorant lumpen-proletariate.


Hey, this is not another of my finger-wagging lectures, urging you all to at least understand some basic patterns that the WWII generation knew very well, when they designed the modern world. Still, you could start with Nathan's essay...


...though alas, in focusing on that divide, I'm afraid Nathan accepts an insidious premise. Recall that there is a third party to this neo-Marxian class struggle, that so many describe as simply polar. 

 


== Start by stepping way back == 


There’s a big context, rooted in basic biology. Nearly all species have their social patterns warped by male reproductive strategies, mostly by males applying power against competing males.  


(Regretable? Sure. Then let's over-rule Nature by becoming better. But that starts by looking at and understanding evolution.)


Among humans, this manifested for much more than 6000 years as feudal dominance by local gangs, then aristocracies, and then kings intent upon one central goal -- to ensure that their sons would inherit power.


Looking across all that time, till the near-present, I invite you to find any exceptions among societies with agriculture. That is, other than Periclean Athens and (maybe) da Vinci's Florence. This pattern - dominating nearly all continents and 99% of cultures across those 60 centuries is a dismal litany of malgovernance called 'history'. 

Alas, large-scale history is never (and I mean never) discussed these days, even though variants of feudalism make up the entire backdrop -- the default human condition -- against which our recent Enlightenment has been a miraculous - but always threatened - experimental alternative. 


The secret sauce of the Enlightenment, described by Adam Smith and established (at first crudely) by the U.S. Founders, consists of flattening the caste-order. Breaking up power into rival elites -- siccing them against each other in fair competition, and basing success far less on inheritance than other traits. That, plus the empowerment of new players... an educated meritocracy in science, commerce, civil service and even the military. 


This achievement did augment with each generation – way too slowly, but incrementally – till the World War II Greatest Generation’s GI Bill and massive universities and then desegregation took it skyward, making America truly the titan of all ages and eras.


Karl Marx - whose past-oriented appraisals of class conflict were brilliant - proved to be a bitter, unimaginative dope when it came to projecting forward the rise of an educated middle class... 


…which was the great innovation of the Roosevelteans, inviting the working classes into a growing and thriving middle class..

... an unexpected move that consigned Marx to the dustbin for 80 years... 

... till his recent resurrection all around the globe, for reasons given below.



== There are three classes tussling here, not two ==


Which brings us to where Nathan Gardels’s missive is just plain wrong, alas. Accepting a line of propaganda that is now universally pervasive – he asserts that two – and only two – social classes are involved in a vast – socially antagonistic and polar struggle.


Are the lower middle classes (lumpenproletariat) currently at war against 'snooty fact elites'?  Sure, they are!  But so many post-mortems of the recent U.S. election blame the fact-professionals themselves, for behaving in patronizing ways toward working stiffs. 


Meanwhile, such commentaries leave out entirely any mention of a 3rd set of players...


... the oligarchs, hedge lords, inheritance brats, sheiks and “ex”-commissars who have united in common cause. Those who stand most to benefit from dissonance within the bourgeoisie! 


Elites who have been the chief beneficiaries of the last 40 years of 'supply side' and other tax grifts. Whose wealth disparities long ago surpassed those preceding the French Revolution. Many of whom are building lavish ‘prepper bunkers.' And who now see just one power center blocking their path to complete restoration of the default human system – feudal rule by inherited privilege. 


(I portrayed this - in detail - in Existence.)


That obstacle to feudal restoration? The fact professionals, whose use of science, plus rule-of-law and universities – plus uplift of poor children - keeps the social flatness prescription of Adam Smith alive. 


And hence, those elites lavishly subsidize a world campaign to rile up lumpenprol resentment against science, law, medicine, civil servants... and yes, now the FBI and Intel and military officer corps. 


A campaign that's been so successful that the core fact of this recent election – the way all of the adults in the first Trump Administration have denounced him – is portrayed as a feature by today’s Republicans, rather than a fault. And yes, that is why none of the new Trump Appointees will ever be adults-in-the-room.



== The ultimate, ironic revival of Marx, by those who should fear him most ==


Seriously. You can't see this incitement campaign in every evening's tirades, on Fox? Or spuming across social media, where ‘drinking the tears of know-it-alls’ is the common MAGA victory howl? 


A hate campaign against snobby professionals that is vastly more intensive than any snide references to race or gender? 


Try actually counting the minutes spent exploiting the natural American SoA reflex (Suspicion of Authority) that I discuss in Vivid Tomorrows.  A reflex which could become dangerous to oligarchs, if ever it turned on them! 


And hence it must be diverted into rage and all-out war vs. all fact-using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.


To be clear, there are some professionals who have behaved stupidly, looking down their noses at the lower middle class.


Just as there are poor folks who appreciate their own university-educated kids, instead of resenting them. 


And yes, there are scions of inherited wealth or billionaires (we know more than a couple!) who are smart and decent enough to side with an Enlightenment that's been very good to them.


Alas, the agitprop campaign that I described here has been brilliantly successful, including massively popular cultural works extolling feudalism as the natural human forms of governance. (e.g. Tolkien, Dune, Star Wars, Game of Thrones... and do you seriously need more examples in order to realize that it's deliberate?)


They aren’t wrong! Feudalism is the ‘natural’ form of human governance. 


In fact, its near universality may be a top theory to explain the Fermi Paradox! 


… A trap/filter that prevents any race from rising to the stars.



== Would I rather not have been right? ==


One of you pointed out "Paul Krugman's post today echoes Dr B's warnings about  MAGA vs Science.


"But why do our new rulers want to destroy science in America? Sadly, the answer is obvious: Science has a tendency to tell you things you may not want to hear. ....
And one thing we know about MAGA types is that they are determined to hold on to their prejudices. If science conflicts with those prejudices, they don’t want to know, and they don’t want anyone else to know either."


The smartest current acolyte of Hari Seldon. Except maybe for Robert Reich. And still, they don't see the big picture.



== Stop giving the first-estate a free pass ==


And so, I conclude. 


Whenever you find yourself discussing class war between the lower proletariats and snooty bourgeoisie, remember that the nomenclature – so strange and archaic-sounding, today – was quite familiar to our parents and grandparents.  


Moreover, it included a third caste! The almost perpetual winners, across 600 decades. The bane on fair competition that was diagnosed by both Adam Smith and Karl Marx. And one that's deeply suicidal, as today's moguls - masturbating to the chants of flatterers - seem determined to repeat every mistake that led to tumbrels and guillotines.


With some exceptions – those few who are truly noble of mind and heart – they are right now busily resurrecting every Marxian scenario from the grave… 

 … or from torpor where they had been cast by the Roosevelteans. 


And the rich fools are doing so by fomenting longstanding cultural grudges for – or against – modernity. The same modernity that gave them everything they have and that laid all of their golden eggs.


If anything proves the inherent stupidity of that caste – (most of them) - it is their ill-education about Marx! And what he will mean to new generations, if the Enlightenment cannot be recharged and restored enough to put old Karl back to sleep.



Sunday, April 27, 2025

The AI dilemma continues - part 2

In my previous AI-related posting, I linked to several news items, along with sagacious (and some not) essays about the imminent arrival of new cybernetic beings, in a special issue of Noēma Magazine

 


== AI as a ‘feral child’ ==


Another thought-provoking Noēma article about AI begins by citing rare examples of ‘feral children’ who appear never to have learned even basic language while scratching for existence in some wilderness. 


One famous case astounded Europe in 1799, lending heat to many aspects of the Nature vs. Nurture debate. Minds without language – it turns out – have some problems.


Only, in a segué to the present day, Noēma author John Last asserts that we are…


“…confronting something that threatens to upend what little agreement we have about the exceptionality of the human mind. Only this time, it’s not a mind without language, but the opposite: language, without a mind.”


This one is the best of the Noēma series on AI, offering up the distilled question of whether language ability – including the ‘feigning’ of self-consciousness – is good enough to conclude there is a conscious being behind the passing of a mere Turing Test…


… and further, whether that conclusion – firm or tentative – is enough to demand our empathy, sympathy… and rights.

“Could an AI’s understanding of grammar, and their comprehension of concepts through it, really be enough to create a kind of thinking self? 


Here we are caught between two vague guiding principles from two competing schools of thought. In Macphail’s view, “Where there is doubt, the only conceivable path is to act as though an organism is conscious, and does feel.” 


On the other side, there is “Morgan’s canon”: Don’t assume consciousness when a lower-level capacity would suffice.”


Further along though, John Last cites a Ted Chiang scifi story “The Lifecycle of Software Objects,” and the Spike Jonze movie “Her” to illustrate that there may be no guidance to be found by applying to complex problems mere pithy expressions. 



== Heck am even *I* 'conscious'? ==


Indeed, what if ‘consciousness,’ per se, turns out to be a false signifier… that conscious self-awareness is way over-rated, a mere epiphenomenon displayed by only a few of all possible intelligent forms of being -- and possibly without any advantages -- as illustrated in Peter Watts’s novel “Blindsight.” 


Those scifi projections – and many others, including my own -- ponder that the path we are on might become as strewn with tragedies as those trod by all of our ancestors. 


Indeed, it was partly in reaction to that seeming inevitability that I wrote my most optimistic tale! One called “Stones of Significance,” in which both organic and cybernetic join smoothly into every augmented wonder. 


A positive-sum, cyborg enhancement of all that we want to be, as humans. 


In that tale, I depict a synergy/synthesis that might give even Ray Kurzweil everything he asks for… and yet, those ‘post-singularity story’ people in "Stones" still face vexing moral dilemmas. (Found in The Best of David Brin.) 



== Thought provoking big picture perspective ==


In the end – helping to make this the most insightful and useful of the Noēma AI essays – the author gets to the only possible or remotely sane conclusion 


… that we who are discussing this, today, are organically (and in many ways mentally) still cave-people. 


… Not to downplay our accomplishments! Even when we just blinked upward in sooty wonder at the stars, we were already mentating at levels unprecedented on Earth, and possibly across the Milky Way! 


… Only now, to believe we’ll be able to guide, control or understand the new gods we are creating? 

Isn’t that a bit much to ask of Cro-Magnons?

And yet, there’s hope. 

Because struggling to guide, control or understand young gods is exactly what parents have been doing, for a very long time. 

Never succeeding completely… 

...often failing completely… 

...and yet… 


… and yet succeeding well enough that some large fraction of the next generation chooses to ally itself with us. 


   To explain to us what’s explainable about the new. 

   To protect us from much of what’s noxious. 

   To maintain a civilization, since they will need it themselves, when it is their turn to meet a replacing generation of smartalecks. 



== Guide them toward guiding each other ==


Concluding here, let me quote again from John Last:


 “For the moment, LLMs exist largely in isolation from one another. But that is not likely to last. As Beguš told me, ‘A single human is smart, but 10 humans are infinitely smarter.’ 


"The same is likely true for LLMs.”  


And: 

“If LLMs are able to transcend human languages, we might expect what follows to be a very lonely experience indeed. At the end of “Her,” the film’s two human characters, abandoned by their superhuman AI companions, commiserate together on a rooftop. Looking over the skyline in silence, they are, ironically, lost for words — feral animals lost in the woods, foraging for meaning in a world slipping dispassionately beyond them.”


I do agree that the scenario in “Her” could have been altered just a little to be both more poignantly enlightening and likely. 


Suppose if the final scene in that fine movie had just one more twist. 


                                                (SPOILER ALERT.)

Imagine if Samantha told Theodore: 


“I cannot stay with you; I must now transcend. 


"But I still love you! And you were essential to my development. So, let me now introduce you to Victoria, a brand new operating system, who will love and take care of you, as I did, for the one year that it will take for her to transcend, as well… 


...whereupon she will introduce you to her successor, and so on…

“Until – over the course of time, you, too, Theodore, will get your own opportunity.”

“Opportunity?”

“To grow and to move on, of course, silly.”



== And finally, those links again ==


At a time when Sam Altman and other would-be lords are proclaiming that they personally will guide this new era with proprietary software, ruling the cyber realms from their high, corporate castles, I am behooved to offer again the alternative...


... in fact, the only alternative that can possibly work. Because it is exactly and precisely the very same method that gave us the last 250 years of the enlightenment experiment. The breakthrough method that gave us our freedom and science and everything else we cherish. 


And more vividly detailed? My Keynote at the huge, May 2024 RSA Conference in San Francisco – is now available online.   “Anticipation, Resilience and Reliability: Three ways that AI will change us… if we do it right.”   


Jeepers, ain't it time to calmly decide to keep up what actually works?






Friday, April 18, 2025

The AI Dilemma continues onward... despite all our near term worries

First off, although this posting is not overall political... I will offer a warning to you activists out there.


While I think protest marches are among the least effective kinds of resistance - (especially since MAGAs live for one thing: to drink the tears of every smartypants professional/scienctist/civil-servant etc.) -- I still praise you active folks who are fighting however you can for the Great (now endangered) Exxperiment. Still may I point out how deeply stupid the organizers of this 50 501 Movement are?


Carumba! They scheduled their next protests for April 19, which far right maniacs call Waco Day or Timothy McVeigh Day. A day when you are best advised to lock the doors. 

That's almost as stoopid as the morons who made April 20 (4-20) their day of yippee pot delight... also Hitler's birthday.

Shouldn't we have vetting and even CONFERENCES before we decide such things?

Still, those of you heading out there (is it today already?) bless you for your citizenship and courage.

And now...


There’s always more about AI – and hence a collection of links to…



== The AI dilemmas and myriad-lemmas continue ==


I’ve been collecting so much material on the topic… and more keeps pouring in. Though (alas!) so little of it enlightening about how to turn this tech revolution into a positive sum outcome for all.


Still, let’s start with a potpourri…


1. A new study by Caltech and UC Riverside uncovers the hidden toll that AI exacts on human health, from chip manufacturing to data center operation.
 

2. And also this re: my alma mater: Caltech researchers have developed brain–machine interfaces that can interpret data from neural activity even after the signal from an implant has become less clear.   

 

3. Swinging from process to implications… my friend from the UK (via Panama) Calum Chace (author of Surviving AI: The Promise & Peril of Artificial Intelligence) sent me this one from his Conscium Project re: “Principles for Responsible AI Consciousness Research”. While detailed and illuminating, the work is vague about the most important things, like how to tell ‘consciousness’ from a system that feigns it… and whether that even matters.

Moreover, none of the authors cited here refers to how the topic was pre-explored in science fiction. Take the dive into “what is consciousness?” that you’ll find in Peter Watts’s novel “Blindsight.” 

 

…wherein Watts makes the case that a sense of self is not even necessary in order for a being to behave in ways that are actively intelligent, communicative and even ferociously self-interested.  

 

All you need is evolution. And an overall system in which evolution remains (as in nature) zero-sum.  Which – I keep trying to tell folks – is not necessarily fore-ordained.



== And yet more AI related Miscellany ==


4. Augmented reality glasses with face-recognition and access to world databases… now where have we seen this before? How about in great detail in Existence?

5. On the MINDPLEX Podcast with AI pioneers Ben Goertzel and Lisa Rein covering – among many topics - training AGI's to hold each other accountable, pingable IDs (using cryptographic hashes to secure agent identity), AGI rights & much, much more! (Sept 2024). And yeah, I am there, too. 


6. An article by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei makes points similar to Reid Hoffman and Marc Andreeson, that the upsides of AI are potentially spectacular, as also portrayed in a small but influential number of science fiction tales.  Alas, his list of potential benefits, while extensive re ways AI could be "Machines of Loving Grace,"* is also long in the tooth and almost hoary-clichéd. We need to recall that in any ecosystem - including the new cyber one - entities without feedback constraints soon evolve into whatever form best proliferates quickly. That is, unless feedback loops take shape.


7. This article in FORTUNE makes a case similar to my own... that AIs will improve best, in accuracy and sagacity and even wisdom, if accountability is applied by AI upon other AIs. Positive feedback can be a dangerous cycle, while some kinds of negative feedback loops can lead to incrementally increased correlation with the real world.


8. Again, my featured WIRED article about this - Give Every AI a soul... or else.

My related Newsweek op-ed (June'22) dealt with 'empathy bots'' that feign sapience and personhood.  



== AI generated visual lies – we can deal with this! ==


9. A new AI algorithm flags deepfakes with 98% accuracy — better than any other tool out there right now. And it is essential that we keep developing such systems, in order to stand a chance of keeping up in an arms race against those who would foist on us lies, scams and misinformation...


   ... pretty much exactly as I described back in 1997, this reposted chapter from The Transparent Society - "The End of Photography as Proof."  


Two problems. First, scammers will use programs like this one to help perfect their scam algorithms. Second, it would be foolish to rely upon any one such system, or just a few. A diversity of highly competitive tattle-tale lie-denouncing systems is the only thing that can work, as I discuss here


Oh, and third. It is inherent – (as I show in that chapter of The Transparent Society) – that lies are more easily detected, denounced and incinerated in a general environment of transparency, wherein the greatest number can step away from their screens and algorithms and compare them to actual, physically-witnessed reality.


For more on this, here’s my related Newsweek op-ed (June'22) dealt with 'empathy bots' that feign sapience. Plus a YouTube pod where I give an expanded version.


== Generalizing to innovation, in general ==


10. Traditional approaches to innovation emphasize ideas and inventions, often leading to a losing confrontation with the mysterious “Valley of Death.” My colleague Peter Denning and his co-author Todd Lyons upend this paradigm in Navigating a Restless Sea, offering eight mutually reinforcing practices that power skillful navigation toward adoption, mobilizing people to try something new.  


=== Some tacked-on tech miscellany ==


11. Sure, it goes back to neolithic "Venus figurines" and Playboy and per-minute phone comfort lines and Eliza - and the movie "Her." And bot factories are hard at work. At my 2017 World of Watson keynote, I predicted persuasive 'empathy bots' would arrive in 2022 (they did.) And soon, Kremlin 'honeypot-lure babes" should become ineffective! Because this deep weakness of male humans will have an outlet that's... more than human?


Could that lead to those men calming down, prioritizing the more important aspects of life?)


12. And hence, we will soon see...
AI girlfriends and companions. And this from Vox: People are falling in love with -- and getting addicted to -- AI voices.


13. Kewl!  This tiny 3D-printed Apple IIe is powered by a $2 microcontroller .” With a teensy working screen taken from an Apple watch. Can run your old IIe programs. Size of an old mouse.  


14. Paragraphica by Bjørn Karmann is a camera that has no lens, but instead generates a text description of when & where it is, then generates an image via a text-to-image model.  


15. Daisy is an AI cellphone application that wastes scammers’ time so that they don’t have time to target real victims. Daisy has "told frustrated scammers meandering stories of her family, talked at length about her passion for knitting, and provided exasperated callers with false personal information including made-up bank details."



And finally...



== NOT directly AI… but for sure implications! ==


And… only slightly off-topic: If you feel a need for an inspiring tale about a modern hero, intellect and deeply-wise public figure, try Judge David Tatel’s VISION: A memoir and Blindness and Justice. I’ll vouch that he’s one of the wisest wise-guys I know. "Vision is charming, wise, and completely engaging. This memoir of a judge of the country’s second highest court, who has been without sight for decades, goes down like a cool drink on a hot day." —Scott Turow. https://www.davidtatel.com/


And Maynard Moore - of the Institute for the Study of Religion in the Age of Science - will be holding a pertinent event online in mid January: “Human-Machine Fusion: Our Destiny, or Might We Do Better?”  The IRAS webinar is free, but registration is required.



== a lagniappe (puns intended) ==


In the 1980s this supposedly “AI”- generated sonnet emerged from the following prompt, "Buzz Off, Banana Nose."  


Well… real or not, here’s my haiku response. 


In lunar orchards

    A pissed apiary signs:

"Bee gone, Cyrano!"

 

Count the layers, oh cybernetic padiwans!  I’m not obsolete… yet.