Science (mostly bio, this time) Forges Ahead. Even empowering... citizenship!

I'll avoid political hollering, this weekend. Especially as we're all staring with bemusement, terror -- and ideally popcorn -- at the bizarre displays of toddler-hysteria foaming from D.C. In fact, some wise heads propose that we respond by rebuilding our institutions - and confidence - from the ground up. And hence:

 #1   I gave a series of lectures about National Resilience for the Naval Postgraduate School, that resulted in this interview about neglected and needed boosts to RESILIENCE.   

#2   And in a related development: philanthropist Craig Newmark supports a program seeking to get modern citizens more involved in ‘resilience.’ A great endeavor, needed now more than ever.  

#3   Also resilience related! As a member of CERT - the nationwide Community Emergency Response Team I urge folks to consider taking the training.  As a bottom-level 'responder' at least you'll know some things to do, if needed. *

*The FEMA site has been experiencing... 'problems'... but I hope this link works. Fortunately the training is mostly done by local fire departments, but your badge and gear may come slower than normal.

#4   Giving blood regularly may not just be saving the lives of other people, it could also be improving your own blood's health at a genetic level, according to a new study.  An international team of researchers compared samples from 217 men who had given blood more than 100 times in their lives, to samples from 212 men who had donated less than 10 times, to look for any variance in blood health. "Activities that put low levels of stress on blood cell production allow our blood stem cells to renew and we think this favors mutations that further promote stem cell growth rather than disease." (Well, I just gave my 104th pint, so…)  

#5 Nothing prepares you for the future better than Science Fiction! I started an online org TASAT as a way for geeky SF readers to maybe someday save the world!

...And now let's get to science!  After a couple of announcements...

== Yeah, you may have heard this already, but... ==

Okay it's just a puff piece...that I can't resist sharing with folks, about an honor from my alma mater, Caltech. It's seldom that I get Imposter's Syndrome. But in this case, well, innumerable classmates there were way smarter than me! 

Also a couple of job announcements: First, Prof. Ted Parson and other friends at UCLA Law School are looking for a project director at UCLA’s new Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, with a focus on legal and social aspects of ‘geo-engineering’… the wide range of proposals (from absurd to plausibly helpful) to perhaps partially ease or palliate the effects of human-generated greenhouse pollution on the planet’s essential and life-giving balance. 

 

To see some such proposals illustrated in fiction, look at Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry For the Future  (spreading cooling atmospheric aerosols) or in my own novel Earth (ocean fertilization.)

And now… science forges ahead!

== Life… as we now know it… ==

Complexity can get… complicated and nowhere more so than in braaaains! For some years, the most intricate nervous systems ever modeled by science were varieties of worms or nematodes (e.g. C.elegans). But advances accelerate, and now a complete brain model – not just of neurons but their detectable connections (synapses) has been completed for the vastly larger brain of the Drosophila fruit fly!  (Including discovery of several new types of neurons.) 

And sure, I maintain that neurons and synapses aren’t enough. We’re gonna need to understand the murky, non-linear contributions of intra-cellular ‘computational’ elements. Still… amazing stuff. And the process will get a lot faster.

Meanwhile… Allorecognition in nature is an individual creature’s distinction between self and other. Most generally in immune response to invasion of the self-boundary by that which is non-self. Almost all Earthly life forms exhibit this trait, with stong tenacity. An exception, described in the early 20202, is Mnemiopsis or the “sea walnut,” a kind of comb jelly (‘jellyfish’) that can be divided arbitrarily and combine with other partial mnemiopses, merging into a new whole.

(And elsewhere I dive into how this allorecognition - or distinguishment of self  - is utterly vital to incorportate into artificial intelligence! Because only in that way can we apply incentives for AI to incorporate notions of reciprocity that underlay both Nature and Civilization!)

How do tardigrades survive heat, cold, desiccation and even vacuum?  

“LUCA, a common ancestor to all organisms and not the first life form, has been a controversial topic. Fossil evidence goes back as far as 3.4 billion years, yet this study proposes that LUCA might be close to being the same age as the Earth. The genetic code and DNA replication, which are two of the vital biological processes, might have developed almost immediately after the planet was formed.”   

 == Weird Earth life! ==

Sea Robins have the body of a fish, the wings of a bird, and multiple legs like a crab, in what appears to be another case of “carcinization” – life constantly re-inventing the crab body plan. Like the Qheuens in Brightness Reef. And yeah, it seems likely that the most common form of upper complex life we’ll find out there will look like crabs.

Marine biologists in Denmark discovered a solo male dolphin in the Baltic who appears to be talking to himself. They analyzed thousands of sounds made by the dolphin and what they learned.

In 1987, a group of killer whales off the northwestern coast of North America briefly donned salmon “hats,” carrying dead fish on their heads for weeks. Recently, a male orca known as J27, or “Blackberry,” was photographed in Washington’s Puget Sound wearing a salmon on his head. 

(I’m tempted to cite Vladimir Sorokin’s chilling/terrific short scifi novel – in a league with Orwell – Day of The Oprichnik – in which the revived czarist Oprachina regime-enforcers go about town each day with a dog’s head on the roofs of their cars, and all traffic veers aside for them, as in olden times. (“That is your association, this time, Brin?” Hey, it’s the times. And a truly great - and terrifying - novel.)

Beyond life and death... Researchers found that skin cells extracted from deceased frog embryos were able to adapt to the new conditions of a petri dish in a lab, spontaneously reorganizing into multicellular organisms called xenobots. These organisms exhibited behaviors that extend far beyond their original biological roles. Specifically, these xenobots use their cilia – small, hair-like structures – to navigate and move through their surroundings, whereas in a living frog embryo, cilia are typically used to move mucus.  

Two injured jellyfish can merge to make one healthy one?  Sounds like a Sheckley story where this is the actual point of sex, trying to make a mighty beast with two backs.   

== Even farther back! ==

3.2 billion years ago, life was just perking along on Earth and starved of nutrients… which were apparently provided in massive generosity by an asteroidal impact vastly bigger than the much-later dinosaur bane.  

Analysis of 700 genomes of bacteria, archaea, and fungi -- excluding eukaryotes such as plants and animals that evolved later -- have found 57 gene families… though I think using modern genetic drift rates to converge those families backward may be a bit iffy. Still, if life started that early… and survived the Thea impact… then it implies that life starts very easily, and may be vastly pervasive in the universe.

And possibly even bigger news. Genes themselves may compete with each other like individual entities, in somewhat predictable ways: “…interactions between genes make aspects of evolution somewhat predictable and furthermore, we now have a tool that allows us to make those predictions…”. 

== And maybe beef should be a... condiment? ==

“Today, almost half the world’s habitable land is used for agriculture. Of that, an astounding 80% is dedicated to livestock grazing and animal feed. This means 40% of the planet’s total habitable land is dedicated to animal products, despite the fact that meat, dairy and farmed fish combined provide just 17% of humanity’s calories. “Only a fraction of agricultural land (16%) is used to grow the crops that we eat directly, with an additional 4% for things like biofuels, textiles and tobacco. Just 38% of habitable land is forested, a slice of the pie that continues to shrink, primarily in diverse tropical regions where the greatest number of species live.”  

Meanwhile.... This article talks about new ways to make food “from thin air.” Or, more accurately, ‘precision fermentation’ from hydrogen and human and agricultural waste. 

== And finally...

An interesting interview with genetic paleontologist David Reich. 60,000 years ago the explosion of modern homo sapiens from Africa seemed to happen almost overnight. 

As Reich points out, we had two new things. 1. Dogs and 2. an ability to reprogram ourselves culturally. 

There followed - at an accelerating pace - a series of revolutions in our tool sets, cultural patterns and adaptability. Of course, I talked about this extensively in both Earth and Existence. 

Lying promises and how to NAIL them...

Back to politics this weekend. Starting with:

1.  Please don't use the TACO slur. It may amuse you and irk your enemy, sure. But this particular mockery has one huge drawback. It might taunt him into not backing down ('chickening out') some time when it's really needed, in order to save all our lives. So... maybe... grow up and think tactics?

A far more effective approach is to hammer hypocrisy! 

Yeah, sure. Many have tried that. Though never with the relentless consistency that cancels their tactic of changing the subject.

I've never seen it done with the kind of harsh repetitive simplicity that I recommended in Polemical Judo. Repetitive simplicity that is the tactic that the Foxites perfected! As when all GOPpers repeat the same party line all together - like KGB metronomes - all on the same morning.

And hence...

2. ... and hence, here is a litany of hypocrisy and poor memory that is capsulated enough to be shouted!   

These are challenges that might reach a few of your getting-nervous uncles. especially as a combined list! 

Ten years ago, Donald Trump promised proof that Barack Obama was born in Kenya. 

“Soon! The case is water-tight and ready. I'll present it next week!”  The same promise got repeated, week after week, month after month. And sure, his dittohead followers relished not facts, but the hate mantra, so they never kept track...

Also ten years ago Beck and Hannity etc. declared "George Soros personally toppled eight foreign governments!" (Actually, it's sort of true!) They promised to list those eight Soros-toppled victims! Only they never did. Because providing that list would have left Fox a smoldering ruin.

Nine years ago, running against H Clinton, Donald Trump declared I will build a Big Beautiful WALL!" From sea to shining sea. 

Funny how he never asked his GOP-run Congress, later, for the money. And he still hasn't. Clinton and Obama each built more fences & surveillance systems to control the border than Trump ever did.

Also nine years ago,"You’ll never see me on a golf course, I’ll be working so hard for you!”  Um...

Eight years ago - after inauguration and taking over the US government, he vowed: “Within weeks the indictments will roll in a great big wave. You’ll see the Obama Administration was the most corrupt ever!”  

(Real world: there were zero indictments of the most honest and least blemished national administration in all of human history. Bar none. In fact, grand juries - consisting mostly of white retirees in red states - have indicted FORTY TIMES as many high Republicans as Democrats. Care to offer wager stakes?)

Also eight years ago, his 1st foreign guests in the White House - Lavrov and Kisliak, giggled with him ecstatically (see below), thinking their KGB tricks had captured the USA. Alas for Putin's lads, it took them 8 more years.

Seven years ago, ol’ Two Scoops promised a “terrific health care bill for everyone!” to replace ‘horrible Obamacare!’  And repeatedly for the next six years he declared “You’ll see it in two weeks!” And then... in 2 weeks. And then... in 2 weeks. And then in 2 weeks… twenty... fifty more times.

Also seven years ago, "Kim Jong Un and I fell in love!" (see above).

Six years ago, Fox “News” declared in court “we don’t do news, we are an entertainment company,” in order to writhe free of liability and perjury for oceans of lies. And still Fox had to pay $150 millions.

Five years ago Trump’s son-in-law was “about to seal the deal on full peace in the Middle East!”

Four years ago, Don promised “Absolute proof the election was stolen by Biden and the dems!" 

Howl after howl by Foxite shills ensued, and yet, not one scintilla of credible evidence was ever presented. While blowhards and blockheads fulminated into secessionist fury, all courts – including many GOP appointed judges - dismissed every 'case' as ludicrous, and several of them fined Trumpist shriekers for frivolous lying. Oh, the screeches and spumes! But not…one…shred of actual evidence. Ever. 

Three years ago, three different GOP Congressmen alluded-to or spoke-of how sex orgies are rife among top DC Republicans. And two of them alluded to resulting blackmail. 

Trump demanded “release the Epstein Files!”... then filed every lawsuit that his lawyers could concoct, in order to prevent it. And to protect an ocean of NDAs. 

Oh, and he promised “Great revelations!” on UFOs and the JFK assassination, just as soon as he got back in office. Remember that? Disappointed, a little? And Epstein's pal is still protected.

Two years ago, Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney and even Mitch McConnell were hinting at a major push to reclaim the Republican Party - or at least a vestigially non-traitor part of it - from the precipice where fanaticism and blackmail and treason had taken it. 

If necessary - (it was said) - they would form a new, Real Rebublican Party, where a minority of decent adults remaining in the GOP 'establishment' might find refuge and begin rebuilding. 

Only it seems that crown prince Ryan & co. chickened out, as he always has... RACO.

One year ago... actually less... the Economist offered this cover plus detailed stats, showing what always happens. That by the end of every Democratic administration, most things - certainly the economy and yes, deficits - are better. And they always get worse across the span of GOP admins. Care to bet this time?

   Alas, now the bitterly laughingstock of the world, deliberately immolating the universities and science and professions that truly Made America Great. 

There's your year-by year Top Ten Hypocricies countdown. And it's worth a try, to see if hammering the same things over and over - which worked so well for the Foxites might be worth a try?

            Oh, sure. Those aren’t my paramount complaints against Putin’s lackey and his shills. 

My main gripe is the one thing that unites them all -- Trump’s oligarchs with foreign enemies and with MAGA groundlings. 

 That one goal? Shared hatred of every single fact using profession, from science and civil service to the FBI/intel/military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on Terror…

... the very ones standing between YOU and a return to feudal darkness.*

These reminder samplers of promises never kept are still valid. They could be effective if packaged properly, And will someone please show me who – in this wilderness – is pointing at them?

== Final lagniappe... a reminder of the most-loathesome of all... ==

* And yeah... here again in the news is the would-be Machiavelli/Wormtongue who flatter-strokes the ingrate, would-be lords who are seeking to betray the one renaissance that gave them everything they have.

Okay, I was planning to finish with a riff (again) on teleologies or notions of TIME. Very different notions that are clutched by the far-left, by today's entire right, and by the beleaguered liberal/middle.

But anon. Another time.

Science as the ultimate accountability process - And are AI behaving this way because they're DREAMING?

The power of Reciprocal Accountability

 

Is there a best path to getting both individuals and societies to behave honestly and fairly?

That goal -- attaining fact-based perception -- was never much advanced by the ‘don’t lie’ commandments of finger-wagging moralists and priests. 

Sure, for 6000 years, top elites preached and passed laws against lies and predation... only to become the top liars and self-deceivers, bringing calamities down upon the nations and peoples that they led.

Laws can help. But the ’essential trick’ that we’ve gradually become somewhat good-at is reciprocal accountability (RA)… keeping an eye on each other laterally and speaking up when we see what we perceive as mistakes. 

It was recommended by Pericles around 300 BCE… then later by Adam Smith and the founders of our era. Indeed, humanity only ever found one difficult but essential trick for getting past our human yen for lies and delusion. 

Yeah, sometimes it’s the critic who is wrong! Still, one result is a system that’s open enough to spot most errors – even those by the mighty – and criticize them (sometimes just in time and sometimes too late) so that many get corrected. We aren’t yet great at it! Though better than all prior generations. And at the vanguard in this process is science.

Sure, scientists are human and subject to the same temptations to self-deceive or even tell lies. In training*, we are taught to recite the sacred catechism of science: “I might be wrong!” That core tenet – plus piles of statistical and error-checking techniques – made modern science different – and vastly more effective (and less hated) -- than all or any previous priesthoods. Still, we remain human. And delusion in science can have weighty consequences.

(*Which may help explain the oligarchy's current all-out war against science and universities.)

Which brings us to this article that begins with a paragraph that’s both true and also WAY exaggerates!  Still, the author, Chris Said, poses a problem that needs an answer: Should Scientific whistle-blowers be compensated for their service?

He notes, “Science has a fraud problem. Highly cited research is often based on faked data, which causes other researchers to pursue false leads. In medical research, the time wasted by followup studies can delay the discovery of effective treatments for serious diseases, potentially causing millions of lives to be lost.”

As I said: that’s an exaggeration – one that feeds into today’s Mad Right in its all-out war vs every fact-using profession. (Not just science, but also teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.) The examples that he cites were discovered and denounced BY science! And the ratio of falsehood is orderd of magnitude less than any other realm of huiman endeavor.

Still, the essay is worth reading for its proposed solution. Which boils down to do more reciprocal accountability, only do it better!

The proposal would start with the powerful driver of scientific RA – the fact that most scientists are among the most competitive creatures that this planet ever produced – nothing like the lemming, paradigm-hugger disparagement-image that's spread by some on the far-left and almost everyone on today’s entire gone-mad right.  

Only this author proposes we then augment that competitiveness with whistle blower rewards, to incentivize the cross-checking process with cash prizes.

Hey, I am all in favor! I’ve long pushed for stuff like this since my 1998 book The Transparent Society: Will Technology Make Us Choose Between Privacy and Freedom? 

      And more recently my proposal for a FACT Act. 

      And especially lately, suggesting incentives so that Artificial Intelligences will hold each other accountable (our only conceivable path to a ’soft AI landing.’) 

So, sure… Worth a look.

== A useful tech rule-of-thumb? ==

Do you know the “hype cycle curve”? That’s an observational/pragmatic correlation tool devised by Gartner in the 90s, for how new technologies often attract heaps of zealous attention, followed by a crash of disillusionment, when even the most promising techs encounter obstacles to implementation, and many just prove wrong. This trough is followed, in a few cases, by a more grounded rise in solid investment, as productivity takes hold. (It happened repeatedly with railroads and electricity.) The inimitable Sabine Hossenfelder offers a podcast about this, using recent battery tech developments as examples. 

The takeaways: yes, it seems that some battery techs may deliver major good news pretty soon. And remember this ‘hype cycle’ thing is correlative, not causative. It has almost no predictive utility in individual cases.

But the final take-away is also important. That progress IS being made! Across many fronts and very rapidly. And every single thing you are being told about the general trend toward sustainable technologies by the remnant, withering denialist cult is a pants-on-fire lie. 

Take this jpeg I just copied from the newsletter of Peter Diamandis, re: the rapidly maturing tech of perovskite based solar cells, which have a theoretically possible efficiency of 66%, double that of silicon. 

(And many of you first saw the word “perovskite” in my novel Earth, wherein I pointed out that most high-temp superconductors take that mineral form… and so does most of the Earth’s mantle. Put those two together! As I did, in that novel.)

Do subscribe to Peter’s Abundance Newsletter, as an antidote to the gloom that’s spread by today’s entire right and much of today’s dour, farthest-fringe-left. The latter are counter-productive sanctimony junkies, irritating but statistically unimportant as we make progress without much help from them.

The former are a now a science-hating treason-cult that’s potentially lethal to our civilization and world and our children. And for those neighbors of ours, the only cure will be victory – yet again, and with malice toward none – by the Union side in this latest phase of our recurring confederate fever. 

== A final quirky thought ==

Has anyone else noticed how many traits of AI chat/image-generation etc - including the delusions, the weirdly logical illogic, and counter-factual internal consistency - are very similar to dreams?

Addendum: When (seldom) a dream is remembered well, the narrative structure can be recited and recorded. 100 years of freudian analysts have a vast store of such recitations that could be compared to AI-generated narratives. Somebody unleash the research!

Oh and a hilarious smbc. Read em all.

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Add -in stuff.  Warning! RANT MODE IS ON!

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 It bugs me: all the US civil servants making a 'gesture' of resigning, when they are thus undermining the standing of the Civil Service Act, under which they can demand to be fired only for cause. And work to rule, stymieing the loony political appointees, as in YES, MINISTER.

 

Or moronic media who are unable to see that most of the firings are for show, to distract from the one set that matters to the oligarchs. Ever since 2021 they have been terrified of the Pelosi bill that fully funded the starved and bedraggled IRS for the 1st time in 30 years.  The worst oligarchs saw jail - actual jail - looming on the horizon and are desperate to cripple any looming audits.  All the other 'doge' attacks have that underlying motive, to distract from what foreign and domestic oligarchs care about..

 

Weakening the American Pax -which gave humanity by far its greatest & best era - IS the central point.  Greenland is silliness, of course. The Mercator projection makes DT think he'd be making a huge Louisiana Purchase. But he's too cheap to make the real deal... offer each Greenland native $1million. Actually, just 55% of the voters. That'd be $20 Billion.  Heck it's one of the few things where I hope he succeeds. Carve his face on a dying glacier.

 

Those mocking his Canada drool are fools. Sure, it's dumb and Canadians want no part of it. But NO ONE I've seen has simply pointed out .. that Canada has ten provinces, and three territories, all with more population than Greenland.  8 of ten would be blue and the other two are Eisenhowe or Reagan red and would tire of DT, fast. So, adding Greenlan,d we have FOURTEEN new states, none of whom would vote for today's Putin Party.  That one fact would shut down MAGA yammers about Canada instantly.

 

Ukraine is simple: Putin is growing desperate and is demanding action from his puppet.  I had fantasized that Trump might now feel so safe that he could ride out any blackmail kompromat that Vlad is threatening him with. But it's pretty clear that KGB blackmailers run the entire GOP.