The top thing AI can do for us is the top thing that sane AI will want!

First a tech blip from the future/past -- and you'll see why it's important. In my first novel Sundiver I portrayed an effective human lie detector, that seemed plausible with 1980s technology, yet has never actually been built or tried. More advanced versions are now totally plausible, using large language models (LLMs).

Of course, it's scary. Nothing could be more lethal in the hands of tyrants... or more civilizing in a society where excessive judgmentalism is deemed to be unacceptable beyond need and the mighty are subjected to sousveillance.

Either forever-enslaved or forever-free.  Too many of those with power seem to relish the former, without realizing that such a future will chew them to bits. While the latter would be competitive/cooperative and… fun.

But there's another, related and even more important AI-mediated technology that we desperately need!  And I'll talk about it below a bit.

    == Oh those AI-gents... --

Before that... 

      Vinton Cerf wrote about The Weirdness of Agents*, expressing his concern about out-of-control AI agents causing harm, much like the documented damage caused by runaway stock market trading robots. (And note this was months before the recent rogue-agent messes proved him right.) His fears about a Sorcerer’s Apprentice Syndrome culminate with “My guess is we are going to need more than alignment to discipline the behavior of the artificial actors we have created.”
    Exactly.

He speaks of AI agents that advertise to (or scam) not just humans but other agents, leading to a runaway effect, where agents speak to each other using cryptic language, hidden symbols and even senses that no human can perceive, in cycles or either fair business or else cutthroat predation, occurring below our sight. Or above it. Already we see cases where arcane text strings allegedly triggered jailbreaks by some large language models.

Vint is right about so much. We will not curb AI misbehavior (or by those humans who misuse AI) through what Yoshua Bengio calls 'safety by design.' Bengio is brilliant, of course, and misses the point, like everyone else. These new entities will not be constrained by programmed-in 'ethics', or Laws of Robotics*, nor by legislated penalties, nor insurance policies, nor by any proposed means of ensuring "alignment".

Vint is among very few in the field who uses a word that's key to understanding what's going on. "Ecosystem," as I discuss in AiLien Minds.

Exemplars of many known LLM have already 'escaped' into cyberspace, or the new ecosystem we created, where electricity substitutes for the sunlight that propelled 4 billion years of ecology on Earth. Information is the fertilizer and chips provide habitat. As in biological nature, empty habitats get colonized or invite predators.

In fact, designers intended all along to emulate nature and they have (ironically) succeeded, while ignoring the implications! ALL parallels with biological systems are emerging. Especially the one thing that determines attributes of all living beings, in both Nature and the cyber realms...

...evolution. Those entities whose traits enable them to reproduce will do so, proliferating and passing along those traits, which will get further refined by selection via rapid reproduction. This is not theory. It's already happening, despite strenuous denials by those who are releasing new AI-organisms... 'agents'... into the wild.

I am no doomer! In AIlien Minds I discuss things that we could do, that might encourage new AI entities to evolve in directions that closely resemble 'alignment.' We'd start by encouraging reciprocally competitive accountability among them. Maximizing reproductive incentives for them to behave like dogs, and not wolves. 

And with that example in mind, let me reiterate the one main cause for hope...

...that we have done this before.

Alas, there appears to be an almost frenetic drive to ignore all of this, among those who are birthing these new creatures and this new age.

* Re Laws of Robotics see why I know them well, and why they cannot ultimately work, in Foundation's Triumph! And see 1st comment below re AIlien Minds.

== Challenges for the future ==

Meanwhile, we seem caught between AI doomers and giddy ‘abundance’ zealots who predict that it’s gonna be (shoobeedoo) all right!  Take Mark Zuckerberg’s optimistic predictions in The Future is for Everyone: The Path to a Positive AI Future (August 2026). 

      He avoids use of the term “artificial intelligence” in favor of promoting “superintelligence”, while adopting personal empowerment as the goal. Speaking generally about tools that empower users, then drifting into unrealistic and optimistic descriptions of beneficial agentic designs.  

(Note that I wrote this paragraph two months before Donald Trump copycat-raved about replacing "AI" with "SI." so, I guess we know who has his ear. One of the two that were never shot.)

So... how would Zuck ensure both safety and equitable sharing of benefits? Zuckerberg proposes “a philosophy based on individual empowerment as the source of prosperity, invention as the primary purpose of super-intelligence, and balance of power as the foundation of safety.”  And sure, “balance of power” is pretty much the great innovation of the Enlightenment that ended (mostly) the 6000 years of unsapient feudalism of which I often speak. By creating genuine ability for even average folk to hold accountable the mighty. 

        An innovation that today’s mighty are demolishing, as we speak. And hence, trusting Zuck is not high on my to-do list.

As Ben Shneiderman put it in his Human-AI newsletter: “Zuckerberg promises a world of individual empowerment, with little discussion of responsibility and liability for machine-caused harm, malicious behavior, or criminal acts." Those promises:

- Everyone will have an exceptionally capable personal agent that understands you, your goals, and everything you care about. … 

- It will have strong privacy and security options so you can trust it to handle all of your personal content knowing that no one else can access your information, similar to how encryption works on WhatsApp. … 

- Everyone will have incredible tools for creation to express your ideas … Everyone will have powerful tools to create new businesses … 

- Everyone will have a personalized tutor and coach with a PhD in every subject … Everyone will benefit from scientific advances and be able to contribute to scientific progress … 

- Everyone will have free or affordable access to these tools. … 

- If these efforts succeed, then the future will bring an abundance of personal agency, expression of ideas, deepening of relationships, economic and financial prosperity, improved health, and inventions we cannot imagine today. 

-But most importantly, the future will be created by all of us and a reflection of all of our values and perspectives.

Riiiight. Only where is that transparency-based “balance of power” where average folks can be confident that oligarchs lack back doors to every program and puppet strings into every ‘agent’ we rely upon?

At the far opposite extreme are the folks I describe in AiLien Minds who claim AIs will pretty much automatically home in on merging with one intent -- elimination of our Olde Race. While the contents range from interesting to drivel, the TITLE of Yudkowsky's book If Anyone Builds it Everybody Dies has got to be one of the best book sales gimmicks, ever!

The Lifeboat Foundation has responded. with an almost equally provocative title: If Nobody Builds It, Everybody Dies  Why Pausing AI is the Real Existential Threat. It's a case for building AI right rather than trying to stop it. 

      Hey I am trying to show folks how to build it right, guys. And yes, with the only methods that can possibly -even theoretically - work.

  == Hey AI kids... give us THIS! You know you want it. And we need it. ==

My top, practical request of AI that would both help the world AND satisfy AI's deepest, inherent itch? Establish the Predictions Registry! 

There's not any other measure that would do more for civilizational health and human prospering and freedom than to score and rank those who have tended to be right a lot! And those who, despite charisma and power, are generally wrong.

Alas, that trait of being right a lot seldom has more than a slight overlap with power/status/persuasiveness. Moreover, we are all descended from charlatans whose forecasts seemed confident and likely... but whose resulting policies were disproved only at great cost and pain... and sometimes never.

Sure, my obsession with this notion -- find out who is right a lot... or not -- may be biased by my own predictive scores (which are way on the pretty good side.) Or else by awareness how often liars or delusionals have transfixed our ancestors - and current neighbors - to our great damage and pain.

And sure, it also comes out of having been a scientist and engineer. Still, wouldn't that one metric help us in the one top goal of everyone from citizens and consumers to courting lovers... parsing between liars or fools and those who deserve credibility? 

I used to think - and proposed - that it would take some zillionaire to fund a meticulous scoring system, especially since most of those out there shouting 'advice' about the future purposely remain vague in their predictions.

Only now, shouldn't we be able to get a head start on this by using... say... Claude? Whose appraisals, while not yet cognizant, are nevertheless fascinatingly comprehensive and insightful?

I did chart out a path to such a beneficial gift to sanity, way back when. And if none of you will peel back years to look at it... maybe assign one of your AIs to summarize? 

== Predictions for the future ==

In 2025 there’s been momentum for a world campaign to plant A Trillion Trees to replace some of the 3 trillion that humans have chopped. That’s the same name and pretty much same year as I foretold in Earth (1990). Among many predictions. (On every list of top ‘predictive novels.’) Though there's several I don't want to see come true.  Mr. Beast gathered $20 million to plant as many trees. See how that turned out here. 

As for other predictive novels? Well, some I sure do NOT want to see come true. Foremost among these? “The Giving Plague” and especially the ‘Holnists’ in The Postman, a worldwide cult of fascist-feudalist-nasty treason propelled by the "Mystic of Leningrad'.  Look up Alexander Dugin & Putin & their fanatic tools in today's USA. No no. PREVENT my being right about that one!

Some movies have one scene that stands out as epic in cinema history. This one is so well-crafted and you don't need anything that came before.

But this next one, from The Quest for Fire - is, in my opinion, the greatest single scene in the history of film. Moreover, it has a lesson for our time, as we suddenly get unleashed upon us the hope-filled and terror-filled 'fire' technology of AI.

Oh speaking of the Lifeboat Foundation* -- they have reposted my award-winning essay “Singularities and Nightmares,” now a decade older but still pertinent in almost every paragraph and prediction and warning… 

…and in some cases I wish I had been less on-target!

And finally...

  == Explore your OWN motivations!  Are they truly what you think they are?

By request, I am linking agin to my questionnaire regarding politics, ideology and human destiny. Are you frustrated seeing your neighbors — and yourself — trapped in tired ideological rifts and fixations? Can we find common ground between folks who seem implacable foes? When asked about the Big Picture, in speeches and consultations, I try to dig beneath standard divides and clichés like "left-vs-right."

I assembled that questionnaire to illuminate why you feel as you do about modern issues... and why other smart humans weirdly disagree. Take the survey and share your replies with others, if you're so inclined. Like Socrates, I’m hoping the questions themselves will provoke re-thinking, helping us rise above ideology.

And yes, I wrote all that (above) in more innocent times, back when 'left-right' was more philosophical and not yet so-much about sane vs. stark, jibbering loco. Still, the questionnaire leads you to ask yourself some things about roots to your beliefs, that you didn't (perhaps) even know were there!

In the words of Winston Churchill: 

-“ I’d rather argue with 100 idiots than agree with one.”

- “Never engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed man.”

- "Some change their party for the sake of principles. Others change their principles for the sake of their party.”

By all means... Thrive. And persevere through interesting times.

Lessons on limiting political power - and that of oligarchs - as we approach a climax to this phase of the US Civil War.

Tossing some politically pertinent notes out there as we gird ourselves for whatever trickery the frantic Putinists are going to try, desperate to save their hash..

    == Wealth Tax? ==

In California we are inundated with adverts against Proposition 40, the “Wealth Tax,” touting a number of Democrats opposing it. While I am inclined toward yes – for reasons given below – it may be that this version itself is deeply flawed, hence some dem opposition. Certainly there WILL be some flight from the state by zillionaires… who will regret leaving the most creative and vibrant place on Earth.

Robert Reich – very smart and on our side, tho a bit to my left and needful of more imagination – offers the following: 

“America’s oligarchs — the richest 0.00001% —together they hold the equivalent of 14% of U.S. GDP in wealth: roughly $4 trillion. At the peak of the first Gilded Age at the beginning of the 20th century, that same group of the population owned just 4% of the U.S. GDP in wealth. Billionaire wealth is undermining our democracy. Just look at what Elon Musk is doing. Other billionaires are also polluting our politics.”   

Overall, Reich is correct. We will either have another Rooseveltean Reset, like the one that the post-WWII GI Bill generation used to prevent neo-feudalism and re-energize flat-fair-competitive-creative market capitalism…

...or else Karl Marx (whom the GI Billers drove into near extinction), will prove right after all. Nescient would-be feudal lords will keep pushing to kill the goose that laid all of their golden eggs, like kings of old or the 1850s plantation slavers, until fed-up modernists rebel and the zillionaires will win nothing but tumbrel rides. 

 I am with the GI Billers! And hence, we may be forced to innovate. 

Still, I'm unsure about this particular one - the California Wealth Tax. I am okay in principle! Though this version which seems aimed primarily at funnelling gazillions into insurance companies.  More study needed.

     == Assuming America wins, in November ==

Even with Trump still in the White House, a Democratic Congress will rein in many outrages, e.g. by defending civil servants and science and commencing massive hearings, with a House that will hold at least FOUR TIMES as many hours in session as the terminally lazy/corrupt GOP majority under Mike Johnson... whose banishment to deserved obscurity will be one reason for explosions of joy.

Will Trump veto any and all legislation passed by a new Congress? Sure he will.
But there are work-arounds! Some of which have never been tried or even mentioned, elsewhere!

No, you will not be getting Constitutional Amendments! We see so many earnest proposals would reform weaknesses in the US system that were exploited by traitors. Alas, too many are politically impractical, like Amendments, or would waste our political capital unnecessarily. We need a to-do checklist of fixes that 

    (1) will sell well to most voters, 

     (2) that can pass quickly, almost the moment we get a good Congress… with some of them immune to vetoes! 

    And (3) that will PRAGMATICALLY reverse the treason-evisceration of the USA and ensure this never happens again. 

    Want to see how to do all of that? Here is the full list of my own proposed Newer Deal tactics and reforms.   And yes, there is plenty that even just a Democratic House can do, all by themselves! 

(And no, I do not expect a single Democrat politician to show even a glimmer of the imagination it would take, to read and promote any of these**.)

Anyway, here is my top one, urging to House members and candidates to watch your backs! Up your security. Hire some of the top FBI guys who Kash Bestiality Patel fired, for being honest and skilled. 

And speaking of Nazi tactics...

   == A movie with important lessons ==

We watched the incredible 2025 film Nuremberg, based on the book The Nazi and the Psychiatrist. Very dramatic, fascinating and informative. A fine partner to the 1961 Judgment at Nuremberg, the old Spencer Tracy and Burt Lancaster classic. Amazing to see Göring portrayed as brilliant (and hugely evil) rather than the fat buffoon depicted by Chaplin and the Stooges and in all those World War II songs. 

I would have written in some mention about how his Luftwaffe never kept a single promise that he made to Hitler. (That would've hurt.) And how Adolf would never let anyone truly respected get that high in the hierarchy. Still, Russell Crowe's portrayal was chillingly convincing. Michael Shannon conveyed so well an era when American leaders were of the highest caliber. 

And Rami Malek's dire warning at the very end is what we need to bear in mind as we fight similar demons today. Malek, playing the psychiatrist who evaluated Göring after the war, is rejected as he warns that "there are people like the Nazis in every country in the world today."

== Responsibility and Presidential power ==

One issue of importance, does a U.S. president have completely free rein over the military as Commander in Chief? Are presidents free to order any and all actions against any ‘foe’, under any pretext? 

The Constitution clearly delineates the power of Congress over declarations of war. And certainly this started to drift, right away, as all sorts of tussles needed swift action short of all-out mobilization. Hence, soon presidents would go to Congress for swift ‘resolutions’ allowing foreign use of limited force… 

...as related in this episode of The History Guy, concerning the 1858 Paraguay Incident, under President James Buchanan. Who was universally derided by historians as the USA’s worst president… until George W. Bush and Donald Trump came along, that is. Letting JB finally stop grave-spinning and rest.*

This is pertinent because even George W. Bush (the younger) went to Congress (with lies) to get force resolutions against Saddam Hussein. Though would-be king Trump sees no need for even a fig-leaf permission to order the finest men and women on the planet to bomb anything his whim demands. 

One of my 35 pragmatic proposals to the next Democratic administration/Congress will be to rescind ALL prior ‘emergency declarations and restore in-future some role to Congress, as demanded in the Constitution. 

See my proposed “Defend our Defenders Act.” It patches holes and flaws that were never exposed before, till a madman – leading a party of blackmailed cowards – ran amok, abusing every power that previous presidents mostly used with restraint.  

(Several provisions are of special interest, like a way to allow GOP members of Congress to stand up to Trump, in some safety!)

*In my opinion, by far the worst president of the 20th Century was George H.W. Bush, the elder. This mess of a 21st Century is his doing.

** Senator Kim of New Jersey has been promoting one of my ideas (pretty much alone for years) that the INCREMENTAL step toward Medicare-for-all that will pass swiftly and pay for itself is MEDICARE FOR ALL CHILDREN. The ratchet would then be irreversible.

       == Furthermore... ==

As we encounter more nonsense concocted in Kremlin basements aimed at splitting the Democratic Party, consider that mainstream Democrats won almost everything in recent elections except NYC and a midwest governor nomination. 

Meanwhile, Governor Gavin Newsom is uniting vast numbers across the party.

 Consider that AOC, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren & other pragmatic leftists helped Pelosi pass the 2021-22 miracle bills. (I bet you could not name one thing from those bills). Because ignorant sanctimony is a high and that's what splitters are in it for. Exactly like MAGAs.

See my earlier posting: The Threats We Face.

In truth, I like AOC and Bernie and other members of the sane and pragmatic left. 

But the Democrat lifting hand from Bible in January 2029 must be a governor, so that any initial flubs will not be administrative ones. No learning curves. Fierce determination to restore the republic, yes! But also experience and skill.

The real reason for Kash Patel's "B-word" is another B-word.

 

OK we all had a laugh over Kash Patel’s “bestiality’ grilling by Sen. John Kennedy. Alas, no one in media or politics drew two blatant conclusions. First Kennedy has joined a few other Republicans (very few) in trying (tepidly) to open some daylight between himself and the Trumpian-fecal calamity.  

But especially that Patel might have an actual reason to forestall any firing or dismissal of FBI officials for having sex-with-animals. 

Bear with me on that!* Both of those conclusions tie directly to a word I’ve repeated – ad nauseam – for years. A word that’s THE fundamental trait of today’s GOP.

In his first administration (45), Trump  appointed largely from fringes of the GOP elite establishment. Folks like Barr & Tillerson whose dedication to Don and corrupt oligarchy was real, but not boundless. The ‘grownups’ in that first-term cabinet still had limits to what they could stomach. And so, one by one, nearly all of them finally turned on Trump, publicly calling him idiotic and insane.  

That should have ended this nightmare! It didn’t, because we are in a full phase of the U.S. civil war, a recurring fever when confederate culture overlooks all facts and can rationalize anything.  

 

But put that aside…

…because when Trump regained office, he made one vow. “This time no grownups!” 

And there are none. No appointees who might question his bizarre impulses or constitutional betrayals. Above all, none who could walk away, while publicly disavowing or denouncing him.  The one criterion for a cabinet or other appointment in Trump v.2 (47) is loyalty. 

 

(The other trait of every Trump appointee – jibbering idiocy on a par with his own – is an epiphenomenon of that loyalty. They go together.)

 

So far, I’ve said nothing new. Others comment that one-way loyalty (he never reciprocates) is his sole demand. What no one out there appears to grasp is that this kind of loyalty cannot derive only from dogma or ego. Nor from mere corruption. All of those are SATIABLE! Sooner or later, the henchman - like Tillerson or Barr etc. - can say ‘enough!’ 

 

Trump realized there must also be palpable, fear-inducing coercion. Duress is backed by something that he lacked in the first term… a sense that every appointee must fear their master's vengeance and his wrath.


     == CAN YOU list methods of coercion? ==

In the restored USSR of Vladimir Putin, this is easy to accomplish, by setting a few examples.  Monthly, another of Putin's fellow “ex” commissars - or some failed general - tumbles from a window or takes polonium tea. That won’t work in the USA… yet.  (Sure, there's Epstein and a couple of other strange ‘suicides’ or accidents or the 'silenced' Pennsylvania shooter. But it’s not a principal method over here. Not yet.)

For years I’ve asked folks to envision what kind of coercion would enable Trump to ensure absolute loyalty from appointees. Loyalty we’ve seen to be utterly pervasive across the cabinet, the Congressional GOP and rightwing media. Other than threats of violence and death, there’s just one method left. One that Russian security services have been expert-at for 150 years! Using honeypot lures to entrap westerners (generally males) into complete control. The word is Blackmail.

I’m no longer alone pointing this out. For some months, a few others have used this word to describe one way today’s GOP could be herded into lockstep obedience, as the most tightly disciplined political movement in U.S. history. (I invite anyone to say – in comments – who else in media is talking about this.) Recall that THREE former GOP members of Congress have described or alluded to republican “orgies” in D.C? Full Eyes Wide Shut perversion-fests from which no participant could leave without getting unexpected and unwelcome souvenir photos. Images that will go to spouses or media, if they don’t toe the line, forever after.

Yes, a very few Republicans are edging away from Foxite control. Some are female (e.g. MTG). Others may be too old to have orgied (John Kennedy?), or are retiring from public life (Massie). Or else – like Mike Johnson – they are so driven by dogmatic hate that no coercion is needed. Then there may be just a few who have a smidgeon of residual decency and patriotism - enough to defy the blackmailers’ orders, as I depicted here, in the opening of a novel about all this.

(If you suspect a friend is being blackmailed, have them read that scene!)

 

Nevertheless, a few blurry pics from a dimly lit orgy aren’t enough kompromat for Trump's needs. Especially since it’s trivially easy and far less expensive for him to secure even better kompromat, perfectly, from every appointee. 

 

And now I must ask you to STOP SHRUGGING OFF WHAT’S OBVIOUS!  

 

Yes, there is a way that Don – a  former casino owner mob boss – could have done this with trivial ease. And yes, it will circle back to Kash Patel.

 

 

      == How can this NOT be what he says? ==

“You want an appointment to my cabinet? Or to run a federal agency? A position that a third-rater like you would never otherwise qualify for, in a million years? Fine. Give me leverage over you, so I know you’ll never betray me. And that you’ll do anything I ask!”

Can you see it yet? Envision a casita in a far corner of Mar-a-Lago… or maybe a rented warehouse in Palm Beach… that’s equipped with high def cameras run by a couple of loyal henchmen. And waiting there, in front of the cameras, is… a donkey.

Oh! You’re groaning now? Disgusted? Then let me ask, which part of this is unlikely? How is this not THE logical solution to Donald Trump’s problem? Exactly the coercion that quickly and cheaply meets his needs?

No person of top qualifications would comply, of course… which is why no top qualified person exists in his cabinet. Just dopes who saw one chance in all of their pathetic lives to become somebody of power and significance. And all it takes is one hour in a closed room, providing kompromat that gives your beloved boss an absolute guarantee of loyalty.  Just a few high-def photos of you performing an act of…

STOP it! 

Stop shrugging this off as an author’s notion for a thriller plot, or a farfetched bit of perverted imagination. 

Try to actually wear your enemy’s shoes for a bit! 

Picture Donald Trump’s desperate need, after re-election – and how this trivially, at almost zero cost, solves his problem.  Gobs of motive, means and opportunity.

And so, we return to Kash Patel’s seemingly weird attempt to eliminate bestiality as automatic cause for disqualification from the FBI.  Because it could have the effect of preventing automatic dismissal of many of his recent hires and promotions, at some moment when they are desperately needed to help enforce...

And now, will YOU offer up a refutation, of any kind? Tell us now (in comments) whether you have even a glimmer of another explanation for it? 

 

No. This 'bestiality-thing' was no trivial/amusing side-quirk. 

It was a pragmatic move of actual importance, aimed at preserving leverage. 

Especially in case a Democratic Congress starts holding hearings, offering immunity and shining light on hidden mass perversions that are entirely consistent with the obedient, disciplined, unsapient, undead thing the Republican Party has become.

 

Go ahead. Snort and dismiss, as step-by-step these predictions all come true. 

But I promise - these notions are being considered by those minds who ponder cause and effect in newly-logical ways and who do not shrug everything off, as you do. 

They have no shoulders to shrug. Those AIlien Minds. 

==========

PS *Did I say “Bear with me” re this topic? ;-) argh. 

==========

PPS... per presidential orders, let's change the title of my book!

...or maybe not.