WHY we are at war again? Ten reasons not in the news.

== Why are we at war again? ==

I'll be concise here, laying down reasons why thousands of U.S. service members - and eventually millions of the rest of us are being thrown into danger amid gaudy explosions that terrify - and sometimes kill - a people we want as friends.. I'll briefly offer some bullet points, many of them I've already elucidated, in other locales. But one thing is certain...

...that this is not about Iran's nuclear program. Sure, the Mission Accomplished 'deal' that Donald Trump will eventually bray will claim that's the reason for it all. It's not. Even remotely.

1. Elsewhere, I speak of Republican Bipolar Foreign Policy. The GOP always ... and I mean literally always... veers sharply between isolationism and imperial thuggery. We saw this manic-depressive mania under Nixon, Reagan, Ford, and both Bushes (remember the Neocons braying "We're an empire now!"). 

Only now these frenzied veers are gyrating daily, as Trump brags America First! Then "I settled EIGHT WARS! (Not one of which happened.) And "I'm the Peace President!" While he's bombed TEN other countries in just his first 13 months. And eviscerated the Foreign Service, driving away thousands of skilled experts on other nations and cultures.

2. When Republican presidents do wage war, it is with an unmistakably different style of military action than Democratic presidents. I've seen no one comment on this, even though it expresses a fundamental difference in character. And yes, it expresses diametrically opposite attitudes toward the fantastically professional men and women of the US military officer corps....

3. ...whose demoralization is a core aim of the Trumpists. Take how Pete "Filthy Fingers"* Hegseth commanded 500 of the world's finest professionals -- generals, admirals and top sergeants - to drop their work all over the world and hurry to Quantico, where 'former' alky Hegs and Trump berated them as "too fat and too woke to fight." just 6 weeks before they performed the most spectacularly complex and competent raid (in Caracas) in the history of the world. A raid that exposed many of our secret methods and tools to scrutiny, without liberating any Venezuelans from their criminal masters (We'll say more on that.)

But yes. Demoralization and culling of the Officer Corps is a feature, not a bug. Trump fired the JAGs whose task includes advising military folks about the legality of orders. And he's been reaming out dozens of flag officers who demur over sending boots into American cities. Now why would he do that?

4. Then there's distraction. Trump is not the first to use war to divert attention away from domestic failures and discontents. Nixon did it. Reagan several times. As did Bush Jr. But Donald Trump is truly desperate to sidetrack. Now with Operation Epstein Slurry... I mean Epic Fury.

Which brings us to something that many of you keep falling for.

5. This Iran war is not even remotely about oil. Except as he's been able to get Venezuelan oil export revenues diverted into offshore slush accounts that he controls. And sure, he likely intends the same re: Iran. And starving Cuba could lead to the option described below. But the USA - as a nation - does not benefit from war-seized oil. We got none from the Iraq wars - and I want you to read this sentence several times, till that fact sinks in. "We did Iraq for oil" is an idiotic incantation worthy of MAGA.

Anyway, the US got energy independence under Obama and is a net exporter. So STFU about that cliché.

6. Except that shutting down Iranian oil does boost world prices, benefiting his fellow oligarchs. So, okay. Maybe a bit.Indirectly.

7. This is not about toppling despots! Decapitating the top capo of the Venezuelan and Iranian gangs is classic mafia technique, that is not meant to liberate the people of those countries! DT has already made offers to the Iranian Republican Guard and Religious Police etc to make deals with him to stay in power, in exchange for them kissing his ring. In Venezuela, Argentina, El Salvador etc. - and possibly soon in Cuba - the aim is never, ever to establish democracy or to liberate citizens from their oppressors. 

The pattern is perfectly that of mafiosi. Take over another gang's territory by decapitating its top capo, then get allegiance (and resulting vigorish) from the terrified sub-capos of the gang that's left in place. This pattern is now so repeatedly blatant that no other theory is even remotely tenable,

Oh, and Marco will ensure that Miami crime families will slip in atop the Castro power structure in Cuba. This is a Mafia gang and the capo di tutti capi - even above Don - was named Vlad.  Though the power of his blackmail files to coerce western elites into obedience may be fading!  For reasons I'll go into, elsewhere. (Hint: because of AI.)

8. I mentioned the exposure of hard-won military secrets and methods, each time we go to physical war. Sometimes, that can't be helped. Russian and Chinese observers are all over eastern Ukraine, for example. Mostly amazed by the brilliance and effectiveness of most Western systems and studying hard how to copy or counter them. But Ukraine is an actual need. Perhaps Iran is, too. But this factor belongs on the balance sheet.

9. Russia's interest. Look up The Great Game of the 19th Century between the Russian and British Empires, as the former kept maneuvering and jostling, trying to win its way to a southern, ice-free port into the Indian Ocean and from there to the rest of the world. Iran/Persia was always a major part of that great-powers struggle and if most in the west don't remember it, you can be sure that Russians do. Above all, the very last thing they want is a free, secular and democratic Iran. Far better to divide power there with the Trumpist gang. Whose relations with Putin are the ghosts at the banquet.

10. Okay, this final reason for the war is harsh. It is speculative, but makes perfect sense, 

Another aim is to foment anger, to re-enrage the forces in the Middle East who want to do terrorism on America. Riling up enough enemies to deliver us into another 9/11 attack. One that Old Two Scoops imagines might save him from having to face devastating elections, this fall. 

Do I have any evidence for that last one? Other than vows of revenge that are already echoing across the region, for the blatantly dumb targeted assassination of Iran's 82-year old paramount religious leader? 

Well, it would explain why Don fired over half of our counter-terrorism folks. And can you think of anything less than a major national trauma that'd provide the excuse he needs for martial law? 

Put it all together folks. 

Prepare, in that event, to chant "Reichstag Fire!" 

But also keep in mind another word. One that shows we finally understand what's going on. Phase 9 of the 25 year recurring psychic schism between pro- and anti-modernity Americans. Our never settled civil war. And hence one word that will efficiently show our grit, our determination, our courage... our firm intent.

APPOMATTOX.

* Filthy Fingers Hegseth. Look up how many times, on Fox, he (drunkenly) bragged: "I don't believe in germs; I haven't washed my hands in a decade." Though I'll admit. Most Trump appointees are even more crazy and even less qualified.

War, loverly war. In Ukraine and in the USA.

Been distracted from posting. Trying to prep my long-gestating Big Book on Artificial Intelligence! (Isn't everyone writing one?) But let's zoom in on current events.

First off, they are deliberately distracting you from what's important. For example, while I am ticked-off at the blatant banishing of some late-night comedians and the rampage of masked, tattooed gang-bangers and ex-cons kidnapping innocents off the street or even from courthouses... all of that has driven from the news things that are even more important -- much more important.

For example, the Trumpist-KGB gang has severed the sinews of Law, in profoundly dangerous ways.

I cited the firing of nearly all of the Inspectors General in most agencies, eliminating the skilled professional auditors and their staffs, dedicated to keeping those agencies generally honest and law abiding. See where years ago I urged that Democratic Congresses strengthen and protect those primly meticulous officials, as dedicated to non-political competence and rule-of-law as the men and women of the US military officer corps... who are also right now under siege.

Only now...

...Now it's JAGs*! The ones who advise generals what's legal. Now why would the Kremlin... I mean Republicans... want to do that?

And then there is the cashiering of 400 Internal Revenue Service CPAs who had been assigned to audit zillionaire tax cheats.

Plus disease researchers at the CDC and universities across America. (And the very idea of universities -- the topmost pride of the WWII GI Bill Generation -- is now under relentless, moronic attack.)

Which brings us to the assault on skilled professionalism that is scariest of all -- the gutting of anti-terrorism and counter-espionage experts, laying us spread-eagled and wide open to enemy attack. (Bush did that months before 9/11 and it sure worked for him.) All of which suggests two terms that you need to look up: - the 'Reichstag Fire'

and

- The Gleiwitz Incident ... and be prepared to chant those words when we hit the streets, after whatever fell tragedy Vlad & his DC stooges have planned for us, to serve as a pretext for martial law.) Still, you might stock up canned foods too. And realize that it may be your turn to praise the 2nd Amendment.

ADDENDUM: Those of you quoting the poem: "First they came for the Jews..." Well, first they are coming for the professionals. Yes, what's happening to immigrants is terrible! But that is not their core goal! Which is to wage all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.

Now who would want that?

*JAG = Judge Advocate General: the most primly meticulous law folks on the planet, who would make an ascetic monk seem lascivious. JAGs and IGs were the men and women protecting you, even more that the counter-terror folks and soldiers with Javelins. And they have been flushed away. By monsters.

** Vlad and his KGB (sorry, slightly relabeled FSB, with the same commie agents dedicated to the same goal: our downfall) hold kompromat on all high Republicans. Do I need to prove that, when Congressional GOPpers have ALL laid down to allow ALL of this, and so much more?

== End times... again already? ==

Veering in another -- frighteningly related -- direction. A recurring mania is apparently rising again... millennialist declarations that the fervently-desired apocalypse is coming! 

It's moronic stuff, of course, recurring every couple of years for the last 2000 or so... and in this essay I laid out for you why the 2030s will be an especially fraught time for those of us with Revelations-obsessed neighbors... or politicians.

Want something even more moronic? Twice per decade since I was ten, recurring episodes of UFO Mania have swamped media, along with declarations that this time all will be revealed, for sure! My fairly recent posting is about the sub-branch of "UAP sightings" by US Navy jests and such. Oh, fer....

Same thing. Upward prayers for a cheat code, rather than do the work to save and improve the first civilization worthy of the stars. One that we crafted, for ourselves.

== Ukraine and now... Poland? ==

Was the Soviet - um, Russian - swarm-probe of drones into Poland 'an accident'? Disproved by extra fuel tanks. Western analysts deem a 'test of NATO abilities &resolve.' A test that Poland and her allies - except the USA - passed brilliantly.

Only the reason for Putin's recent spate of near-attacks on NATO is one more of hundreds of things that were familiar to my parents' GI Bill/ WWII generation, but that time has erased from living memory.

In this case, the root is a tendency of national leaders in war time to assume that the enemy's home population lacks any virtues, including courage.

While this tendentious mistake was shown (somewhat understandably, but still immorally) by Churchill, "Bomber" Harris, Curtis LeMay and R. Nixon, it was a flat out religious tenet of Hitler and the Japanese imperialists... and Stalin. The leaders who ordered devastation of cities all shared a self-satisfying and delusional assumption...

...that the citizens of Antwerp and London, Hamburg and Berlin, Tokyo and Osaka and Hanoi, and now Kiev, would despair and knuckle-under. Instead, they almost always picked their way through the rubble and redoubled efforts in their roofless and windowless factories. (Destroying those factories certainly made sense and worked for the allies.)

Adolf so needed to believe this that he delusionally thought Londoners would buckle in 1944 when a few hundred V1 and V2 flying bombs murdered a few hundred civilians... a small fraction of those who died two years earlier, in the Blitz, inspiring their neighbors to strive harder, in revenge.

For more than three years we have seen Vlad Putin follow exactly this pattern, hurling destruction at Ukrainian cities and civilian populations, blatantly (and publicly avowed) in order to cow them into toppling Zelensky and submitting to Russian yokes. And all it accomplished was to solidify - diamond hard - Ukrainian national identity and passion to resist.

Note that most Ukrainian drone and missile counter-attacks into Russia have been aimed at infrastructure, war assets and strategic materials. Leading now to gas shortages across the whole country. Note also that last winter the AFU could have trashed urban heating systems plunging Moscow etc into dark and cold... ass did happen to Ukrainians. But they did not, because of sapient realization of what I am talking about here... that enemy-inflicted privation thends (not always) to make populations more determined. Though THIS winter will likely be different. Because Russians are by now ready to pin blame where it belongs.

Which brings us back around to Putin's drone probe of Poland. Which not only showed NATO strengths and served as a perfect training exercise. It also revealed Vlad's insistence on the feel-good narrative of enemy cowardice. And 'surely now - after 3 years of insistence 'hey will fold any day now!' It should be obvious to those surrounding Vlad that belligerent insanity is no longer an excuse. Rather, obstinate stoopidity.

== US political in a pathological state ==

I keep seeing calls for restored calm negotiation between parties, even though one side has unambiguously declared phase 8 of the American Civil War. * Now the latest meme spread on on social media? "Debate" training is supposed to calm everyone down?

Seriously? I took two paths in high school. BOTH speech/debate and science. The former was useful, but mostly at appraising my opponents' argument for polemical flaws to attack. The latter taught me the sacred catechism of science: "I might be wrong." With its corollary: "Ain't it cool? Let's find out!"

It's no accident that former debaters like Alex Jones and his ilk are in full-blown attack upon scientists and universities in general. Because facts, well-presented, can crush polemics! As every single position of today's gone mad right can be demolished by actual evidence.

Which is why the MAGA cult - spurred by "ex" commissars in Moscow - wages all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.

Look, I am all in favor of returning to friendly, fact-centered and courteous argument aimed at negotiation! But it is one side that ended that in America. Look up DENNIS HASTERT! Whose Hastert Rules in 1995 ended all negotiation in DC and declared total war on science by banishing the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment. A total campaign that has continued with the gelding of OSTP, the disbanding of most anti-terror and counter-intelligence units, demolishing the audit divisions of the IRS and firing most of the executive agencies' Inspectors general.

Reprising earlier parts of this missive. This is not the GOP of Ike or Lincoln or TR or Barry Goldwater or Reagan, who would spit in the eyes of Kremlin stooges helping "ex" commissars to rebuild the USSR. This cult is at war vs. the entire Western Enlightenment, including the universities that were the pride of the GI Bill generation and that truly made America great.

And no, I will not be calmed down into being nice about it anymore. Not till their Appomattox. Then it will be "malice toward none and charity toward all..."

Which their cult will not show to me, if they win. They have already told me so. And they are telling you, daily.