Supernovas, Mars, and solar sails!

We just returned from Pasadena, where Caltech - my alma mater - installed me as Distinguished Alumnus. An honor that I sincerely never expected, given the many brilliant minds I knew when I was there. Reflecting on that is humbling - even 'imposter syndroming' - though people kindly urged me to think otherwise.

In today's delayed posting, I'll be mostly taking a pause from politics... though the topic of my previous blog - about the likelihood of blackmail poisoning top levels of the U.S. republic - remains horrifically plausible... 

...especially now that prominent members of one party are openly admitting that their party is suborned in this way, by foreign powers.

Only now, let's move on to news from out there!

== Space News! ==

I've already posted elsewhere about the incredible "chopstix" landing-grab of a returning heavy-lift SpaceX booster stage. The concept is now proved, even though a whole lot more incremental steps are needed. 

Don't let any polemical jibber-distractions take away from the wonder that was achieved by Gwynne Shotwell and her SpaceX team.

Anyway, as for that distracting blather... well... I recall when there was a similar problem with Frank Zappa -- vast accomplishments that he seemed bent on contiuously spoiling with audience-insulting rants -- until (at last) Zappa listened to the fans shouting he should "Shut up and play your Guitar!" 

The ratio of ravings to accomplishments seems similar, this time. And what will be remembered (whether or not that wise example is followed) is the 'guitar.'**

 == The next steps in space exploration? ==

On this Future in Review (FiRe) podcast, I'm interviewed by the brilliant Berit Anderson - focusing on the near and mid-future of human spaceflight, especially Artemis and other planned missions to the Moon. (Incidentally, the annual FiRe Conference - one of the most visionary gatherings on the planet - has been postponed due to landslides.)

Also.... Just released: a newly-updated version of  Project Solar Sail: 21st Century Edition: A collection of stories and essays exploring the future of lightships and solar sails in propelling interplanetary... and then interstellar... exploration!

This volume (which I edited with Stephen W. Potts) offers classic contributions by Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac Asimov, Larry Niven, Poul Anderson, Jack Vance, and others... plus new material, including by JPL scientists exploring the latest technologies and vast potential for sails in the future of space exploration. 

== A Red/WET Planet? ==

Geophysical/seismic data from the old Mars InSight lander indicates a lot of water – frozen or even liquid – sloshing deep, deep under the surface of Mars. If the water-rich layer now detected deeper below the surface were consistent around the entire globe of Mars, there would be enough water to fill ancient oceans, and then some. 

And while we’re there…

NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC) - is pleased to announce the 2024 NIAC Phase III award to the mighty pioneer of applications of spaceflight to future biology, and vice versa, Lynn Rothschild: “Mycotecture Off Planet: En Route to the Moon and Mars.”  

In other words, growing space habitats with the help of fungi and mushrooms! A house that protects you from vacuum and radiation... and that you can eat!  For a list of all early stage NIAC research, please visit the Funded Studies page. 

The Curiosity Mars rover rolled over a rock, accidentally crushing it open to reveal yellow crystals of elemental sulfur! - the first time sulfur has been found in its elemental form on Mars.

A fine article about my friend & colleague (and half of a mighty fencing team) Geoff Landis, epic scifi author and incidentally superstar NASA scientist, proposing ways to explore Venus. See also Land-Sailing: Venus Rover, where Landis introduces younger readers to methods of exploring - and traveling across - the surface of Venus.

Speaking of Venus…. re-analysis of data from the 1990s Magellan probe appears to show that volcanoes there are still active!

== Gettin’ a little galactic wit it ==

Many of you are familiar with Lagrange points – L1 through L5 – where gravity balance between two objects (the smaller orbiting the larger) creates ‘tidepools’ where even-smaller things can gather. Temporarily or (in the case of Jupiter’s Trojan asteroid clusters) permanently. Here Anton Petrov talks about a (slim) possibility that there might be such a point between our sun and the galactic center.  It would not be able to collect much, with other stars whipping by over millions of years. But still… I do talk about galactic tidepools in Infinity’s Shore!

Mysterious brightening of a distant galaxy: Did this galaxy suddenly brighten, doubling in infrared frequencies, a 10 fold increase in X-rays)… because its central black hole ate a star?

Getting cosmic. Has the James Webb Space Telescope allowed researchers to resolve the “Hubble Tension” or discrepancy in the rate of expansion of the universe?  It may have just been exaggerated… or possible we simply needed a better tool. 

Two huge galactic clusters were colliding at 1% of light speed, billions of years away/ago, heating their gas clouds prodigiously as drag slowed them down… "These cluster collisions are the most energetic phenomena since the Big Bang…"  But while drag slowed the gas and stars, the galaxies’ dark matter apparently kept rolling on ahead at the original velocities, separating dark from regular matter clumps. This is pretty good reporting on how much detailed sleuthing is involved in figuring all this out.

== Truly mind-stretching! ==

Incredible. About 20 seconds into this video by Anton Petrov (one of the best ‘casts about new discoveries in space) you’ll see an amazing image from the Webb Space Telescope. A very deep field photo that dives into the faint past, beyond redshift-3, this one image captures eighty(!) supernovae taking place ‘simultaneously’ (as seen from Earth today) in a single, narrow frame. Each in a different galaxy. 

There are so many things this tells us.

1. Since any one supernova only remains stand-out visible for a few weeks (maybe a bit longer in infrared, the Webb specialty), this means there ‘are’ absolute gobs of them happening out there…

2. …or there used to be gobs of them, since we are in this case peering way back in time, making it a wee bit less surprising, since early star formation must have led to a great many giant, 1st generation stars, of the kind the burn bright and then blow themselves up with core-collapse supernovas… seeding later generations with heavier elements. Certainly, nothing like this rate is occurring “today”… (our redshift <1 era.) Though Betelgeuse is simmering...

3. Since each of the circled supernovae happened in a different galaxy… and it had to be happening a lot, in order for these brief bursts to be so common in one patch of deep sky... it gives you a truly boggling idea how many galaxies there are. A mind stretch that I can only perform for a few seconds at a time. Read more: NASA's Webb opens new window on supernova science..

That we are a civilization capable of building such a wonder as the Webb… and perceiving and marveling at such wonders… fills me with joy! And also fear that we might throw it all away, in a fit of anti-modernity angst, Pushed by powerful fools bent on restoring us to feudalism’s darkness.

More impact news...

Recent chemical and isotopic analyses from samples obtained by coring into the Chicxulub, Mexico's crater site in the Yucatan peninsula, indicate that the 66-million year old mass-extinction event was likely caused by the impact of a carbonaceous asteroid, originating from the outer solar system, rather than a comet.

As for the moon... Bombardment and impact vaporization of meteorites hitting the lunar surface appear to replenish and maintain the moon's extremely thin atmosphere.

Watch this simulation of a black hole tearing apart a star. 

And...You can help find black holes: a new app, Black Hole Finder - enables citizen scientists to help identify singularities in astronomical images collected by BlackGEM telescopes in Chile. 

And yeah. Again. ALL of this is under threat by ingrates with a lunatic grudge against not only scientists, but every fact-using profession. A too-seldom-mentioned aspect of this dire fight for the only civilization that ever brought us all these wonders... and that now stands poised to venture the stars.

If we decide not to blow it.

====

====

** Patrick Farley's Electric Sheep Comix appears to no longer support the beautiful series DON'T LOOK BACK, which featured Guitar spaceships!  You could nag him to repost it?  

Or else enjoy... and be terrified by... APOCAMON, revealing what fate some of our neighbors believe and fervently salivate for, from from the Book of Revelation. OMG read that one and know what they want and plan for us! People who want this are not nice and they are openly telling you what they want for you.

Galaxies, Black Holes, Supernova... PLUTO... and More Space!

From Mercury to Venus, Mars, Ceres, Pluto, and comets… It’s been an amazing year for space! 

Okay here's your Pluto reminder. Tomorrow is the AWESOME encounter day, when our little robot emissary -- New Horizons -- flashes past the Ninth Planet (of our youth).  Here's my recent posting about that -- and here's a graphical guide to the Pluto Flyby. Follow the coverage on NASA TV. Celebrate. Talk to kids about it. See if you can rouse your neighbors and co-workers to feel a flicker of pride and curiosity.

== Other News from Space! ==

Astronomers may have seriously over-estimated the number of smaller-fainter galaxies there were in the early days of the universe. The universe may be less crowded than we thought...

...but black holes more abundant: By detecting the highest-energy X-rays, which can penetrate through enshrouding gas and dust, the NuSTAR satellite has been able to detect super-massive (and very active) black holes in half a dozen galaxies, invisible to other wavelengths.  This suggests that such super-busy gobblers may be more common in the modern era than previously thought.  

What would happen if you met a black hole? “According to Samir Mathur. professor of physics at The Ohio State University, the recently proposed idea that black holes have “firewalls” that destroy all they touch is wrong. He believes that a black hole converts anything that touches it into a hologram — a near-perfect copy of itself that continues to exist just as before.  Mathur says if our world could be captured by a black hole, we wouldn’t even notice.”

Okaaay!  Very interesting.  Though of course the thing to be recorded would be your bloody mess, after being tidally squished, on your way to the holographic absorption layer.  Still, this is weirdly and wonderfully reminiscent of a scene from volume three of Liu Cixin’s The Three Body Problem.  Volume one is up for a Hugo Award, with my blurb on the cover; get it! Volume II, The Dark Forest will be out in August. But you won’t get to see vol.III – terrifically translated by Ken Liu – till late 2016.  I have, though!  Nyah nyah...

Now...zombie black hole: this massive black hole has awakened after 26 years of dormancy!

Zowee.  Type 1a supernovas are special.  They occur when a neutron star or white dwarf or giant star hauls enough mass from a neighbor to just barely hit the Chandrasekhar Limit where an in-collapse triggers the Big Kablooie (A technical term for use only by we licensed astrophysicists.)  This threshold effect meant that type 1a supernovae are all the same… and hence perfect “standard candles” for measuring distance… the Nobel winning work that refined not only the age of the universe, but the big news of accelerating expansion. (The reason we now believe in ‘dark energy.”)  

Only now… might type 1a supernovae NOT be all the same?  Might some of them be yanked over the Chandrasekhar Limit by an excess of Dark Matter? Yipe!  This could change a number of things. Oh, such times to live in.

Gobbling galaxies! Elliptical galaxy M87 may have swallowed an entire medium -sized galaxy over the last billion years.

==What's next for NASA? ==

A submarine to explore the seas of Titan -- the depths of Kraken Mare?

NASA has selected seven technology proposals for continued study under Phase II of the agency’s Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Program. The selections are based on the potential to transform future aerospace missions, introduce new capabilities or significantly improve current approaches to building and operating aerospace systems. The selected proposals address a range of visionary concepts, including metallic lithium combustion for long-term robotics operations, submarines that explore the oceans of icy moons of the outer planets, and a swarm of tiny satellites that map gravity fields and characterize the properties of small moons and asteroids.

“This is an excellent group of NIAC studies,” said Jason Derleth, NIAC Program executive at NASA Headquarters. “From seeing into cave formations on the moon to a radically new kind of solar sail that uses solar wind instead of light, NIAC continues to push the bounds of current technology.” (I am proud to serve on NIAC's External Council of advisers.)

== Looking ahead ==

Details of the still-tentative plans for a Europa-Clipper mission to visit and study that fascinating Jovian moon.  I wish one of these articles would expand upon such a mission’s obvious secondary purpose, to be a general probe continuing our surveys of both the biggest planet and its other moons. Speak up, if you find information about those aspects and report it here, under comments!

Is Venus geologically active? Analyses of Venus Express observations have detected multiple hot spots on the planet. 

Here's a lovely infographic of our solar system's extraterrestrial oceans -- now believed to exist on Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Enceladus, Titan, Mimas, Triton...

DARPA is already engineering the organisms that could terraform Mars -- genetically engineered extremophiles capable of surviving in the red planet's arid terrain. Will we see the onset of Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars/Green Mars scenario? 

In 2019, Russia intends to land a spacecraft, Luna-25, on the moon's polar region, rather than near the equator where all other landings have occurred.

Meanwhile... The Russian government doubts the U.S. moon landings? Actually, it’s not as lurid as that: “We are not contending that they did not fly [to the moon], and simply made a film about it. But all of these scientific — or perhaps cultural — artifacts are part of the legacy of humanity, and their disappearance without a trace is our common loss. An investigation will reveal what happened,” said the official demanding investigation of disappearance of some of the original 1969 footage.   Still, notice how this works at multiple levels.  As with Fox News in the US, all you have to do is imply in an arched way, and let your … “challenged”… viewers bay after rumors, all by themselves.   

Again, celebrate Bastille Day with New Horizons!  Say hello to Pluto!

Oppose the cynics!  Burnish your hopefulness and pride at being a member of a civilization that does cool stuff!

Then turn and be determined to used the same can-do spirit to solve problems down here too, and make a better world.

Marvels of the Universe

I just returned from Cape Canaveral for a meeting of NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts group, where I am on the Council of External Advisors.  NIAC is the small team within NASA charged with taking big risks (with little money) on highly speculative and "far-out" potential technologies. Small seed grants are handed over for clever (and a few almost-crackpot) endeavors that might bear fruit some distance down the road.

Past grants have included ventures in quantum entanglement communication, "torpor" suspension of human metabolic activity, haptic-reactive space suits, submarines for Titan and Europa, prodigious space telescopes, extrusion-construction of girders in space, and a supersonic jet that swivels 90 degrees in order to land!  Some prove to be... well... blue sky. Others have won major followup investment from agencies and even industry, such as a way to "print" concrete buildings on Earth, or do the same with sintered regolith on the moon. Be proud to be a member of a civilization that invests (modestly) in notions on the borderline with science fiction!

 Tune in to watch some of this year's presentations -- including glimpses of Buzz Aldrin, Frank Drake, Penny Boston and me (et al) asking questions.

== More excitement from space! ==

Despite major efforts to diss science and to turn us against each other and pump up cynicism (admit it: many of you wallow in that drug), our civilization is actually doing great things! Here's just one of many cures for that vile high of cynicism.

Everybody watch these 90 seconds: Space Suite -- using stunning images from NASA and ESA -- with 3D image processing by visual artist Lucas Green.  A lovely reminder of our ambitions to explore... and seek out strange new worlds...

You get to be a member of a civilization that does stuff like this. I cannot reiterate that too often. Your civilization did this.  Yours. And your neighbors are not sheep. (Well, a lot of em aren't.)

Also, zoom in on the gorgeous super-high-resolution panoramic view of the Andromeda Galaxy: Gigapixels of Andromeda, the largest image ever compiled of our neighboring galaxy. Awe-inspiring!

Cynical despair is just plain dumb.

== Making the universe show herself! ==

Going to the Ends of the Earth to Discover the Beginning of Time: Watch this wonderful TEDx talk by my pal Brian Keating, professor of astrophysics at UCSD, whose membership in both teams that probed the first trillionth  of a trillionth of a second of the universe, already has him under discussion in the preliminary, penumbral zones of Nobel-dom! 

Okay, it's a wild ride and maybe the results were premature.  Certainly, science is doing its proper job -- applying competitive reciprocal criticism to test and double test bold assertions! (Exactly as it has been doing re Climate Change.) So, I guess we'll just find out!  No movie plot could be more exciting.

Still... Brian does a wonderful job explaining new developments in cosmology... culminating in a way-cool/fun stunt at the end!  You will have fun! That's not just a prediction, but a command!

  
== Cosmetology! How about them cosmets! ==

Here's a stunning look at the cliffs of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, imaged by ESA's recent Rosetta mission.  They shock even this comet expert. See the full collection of images on the ESA website. 

And yes, I would have been hip deep in the Rosetta-Philae data analysis right now... had you folks not dragged me (kicking and screaming) away from being a cometologist into doing storytelling and speechifying and industrial consulting and all that other blather, instead.  Ah, parallel worlds and might have beens. Sigh

== And plasmets! ==

After five years of searching, researchers using data from NASA's exoplanet-hunting Kepler spacecraft have discovered what look to be two of the most Earth-like worlds yet. Dubbed Kepler-438b and Kepler-442b, both planets appear to be rocky, and orbit in the not-too-hot, not-too-cold habitable zones of their stars, where liquid water can exist in abundance. Orbiting smaller-dimmer suns... Kepler-438b is only about 12 percent larger than the Earth, and basks in 40 percent more starlight. Kepler-442b is 30 percent larger than Earth and receives about 30 percent less starlight. (Note such suns sometimes have cycles of intense flare activity.)

A monster ring system just discovered around exoplanet J1407 is 200 times larger than the rings of Saturn!

Ultrascope is an automated robotic observatory (ARO) that you can laser-cut and 3D print at home. Future versions will be able to contribute to the Asteroid Grand Challenge.  See this and other cool NASA-related STEM projects at the Space Gambit Site!  Some of the projects are way, way cool!

Now to get them interested in the best of all — the EXORARIUM!

== Looking out into the cosmos == 

Here’s an interesting rumination on whether the galaxy may fill with advanced artificial intelligences - which can occupy deep space and use its resources - rather than the bio-entities that spawned them, after evolving on muddy worlds. The notion of self-replicating machines filling the stars goes back to Jones and Finney's classic paper around 1983, about how Von Neumann probes may replicate and fill the galaxy in just 30 million years.

In fact this concept has long been grist of scientific science fictional speculation.  Gregory Benford's Galactic Center series, for example, posits that that realm - lethal to bio life - might be the natural abode of advanced machine civilizations.  

My novel Existence explores this notion in detail, including whether such machines might be "lurking" in the asteroid belt.  And the Brightness Reef trilogy explores possible relationships between bio and machine civilizations on a galactic scale.

== ... and more space, more! ==

Kewl.  We proposed this in the 1980s.  Now President Obama wants it… using a railgun to launch scramjets to near orbit. 

Support the Sentinel Mission. Join a citizen-funded deep space mission to detect Near-Earth Asteroids! (I will be speaking to donors for this mission and the B612 Foundation, in San Jose, in February.)

Stay Tuned for a Group Message from Humanity: With NASA's New Horizons space probe arriving at Pluto, space artist Jon Lomberg is heading One Earth -- an effort to upload messages from Planet Earth. Sign here to add your voice.

Do manatees need spacesuits? The lead image in this article about the  may remind some of you of the first chapter of SUNDIVER.  But these fellows have more than enough delightful craziness of their own. The "Nonhuman Autonomous Space Agency" is a whimsical futurist speculation built on top of a serious thought experiment.

== SETI and the question of God ==

There's a truly stunning piece of drivel in the fast-sinking shipwreck that Rupert Murdoch has made of the former Wall Street Journal. One Eric Metaxas argues that the Fermi Paradox – the absence of any evidence (so far) of extraterrestrial civilizations – means there “must be a God.”  Quoth he: “As our knowledge of the universe increased, it became clear that there were far more factors necessary for life than Sagan supposed. His two parameters grew to 10 and then 20 and then 50, then 200, and so the number of potentially life-supporting planets decreased accordingly. The number dropped to a few thousand planets and kept on plummeting.”

Given that Metaxas offers no citations, it is hard to trace what he means by “parameters” for life to develop. But as someone  who has been immersed in this field for 35 years, I have to say that he must have pulled such a number out of thin air… or somewhere else.  

In fact, every year the conditions for life in the universe seem more prevalent. Today scientists no longer believe you even need an Earth-like world in a “Goldilocks Zone” (and those zones are now much wider than we previously thought). Indeed, there may be a hundred “roofed worlds” or icy moons with sub-surface oceans, like Europa, for every Earth with its waters exposed to the sky.

But I’m not making the mistake of fact-debating silly people who lie about science in order to sway the gullible. We've seen that trick used to devastating effect, in ways that endanger all our children. Yes, even (especially) the children of carbon moguls.

 No, what puzzles me is a matter of basic logic. Like why Mr. Metaxas clearly wants Earth to be alone in the cosmos. Somehow, he has convinced himself that a vast universe of quadrillions of stars and planets is somehow better and more reflective of a great and creative deity if… if it is entirely sterile, except for one teensy dust ball, floating in one obscure corner, that somehow was chosen to receive a spark granted to no other place in all of that immensity.

Let’s leave out that it took the light from some of those stars billions of years to get here… I won’t cram into Mr. Metaxas’s mouth any claim that the Earth, nevertheless, is just six thousand years old. Though we know that is the formal dogma of his brand of fanaticism.

In the end, what depresses me is how immensely insulting to God their proposal is – that we should act all impressed with such a measly, small-minded, un-ambitious and teensy-parochial “creation!” When in fact the heavens are replete with glories suggesting that – well – if He is out there (and I ain't sayin'), then He/She/It is surely a whole lot bigger, more curious and more ambitious than the philosophy clung to by claustrophilic, narrow-minded Kindergarteners, terrified of the vastness of actual Creation.

== And from the celestrially ridiculous to the terrestrially... ==

Ah… Texas Sen. Ted Cruz now heads the Senate committee overseeing NASA. He is making a show of supporting "exploration" but he is part of the cult that all-too recently ordered NASA to drop the word "Earth" from all mission statements and to many Earth-sensing, environment and resource programs.  His "emphasis on exploration" has one goal, to renew that Bush era scheme, diverting all NASA eyes toward the Moon's useless desert and away from the only oasis of life that we know.

Finally, though... swerving to a magnificent "failure" that advanced us all tremendously... catch this amazing video footage of the "almost!" attempt of Elon's SpaceX first stage to land on a barge.  Clearly there are faults, but correctable ones, which makes this a case of "Hell yes, you get a cigar!"