Saturday, May 31, 2025

Lying promises and how to NAIL them...

Back to politics this weekend. Starting with:

1.  Please don't use the TACO slur. It may amuse you and irk your enemy, sure. But this particular mockery has one huge drawback. It might taunt him into not backing down ('chickening out') some time when it's really needed, in order to save all our lives. So... maybe... grow up and think tactics?

A far more effective approach is to hammer hypocrisy! 

Yeah, sure. Many have tried that. Though never with the relentless consistency that cancels their tactic of changing the subject.

I've never seen it done with the kind of harsh repetitive simplicity that I recommended in Polemical Judo. Repetitive simplicity that is the tactic that the Foxites perfected! As when all GOPpers repeat the same party line all together - like KGB metronomes - all on the same morning.

And hence...


2. ... and hence, here is a litany of hypocrisy and poor memory that is capsulated enough to be shouted!   

These are challenges that might reach a few of your getting-nervous uncles. especially as a combined list! 

Ten years ago, Donald Trump promised proof that Barack Obama was born in Kenya. 

“Soon! The case is water-tight and ready. I'll present it next week!”  The same promise got repeated, week after week, month after month. And sure, his dittohead followers relished not facts, but the hate mantra, so they never kept track...

Also ten years ago Beck and Hannity etc. declared "George Soros personally toppled eight foreign governments!" (Actually, it's sort of true!) They promised to list those eight Soros-toppled victims! Only they never did. Because providing that list would have left Fox a smoldering ruin.

Nine years ago, running against H Clinton, Donald Trump declared I will build a Big Beautiful WALL!" From sea to shining sea. 

Funny how he never asked his GOP-run Congress, later, for the money. And he still hasn't. Clinton and Obama each built more fences & surveillance systems to control the border than Trump ever did.

Also nine years ago,"You’ll never see me on a golf course, I’ll be working so hard for you!”  Um...

Eight years ago - after inauguration and taking over the US government, he vowed: “Within weeks the indictments will roll in a great big wave. You’ll see the Obama Administration was the most corrupt ever!”  

(Real world: there were zero indictments of the most honest and least blemished national administration in all of human history. Bar none. In fact, grand juries - consisting mostly of white retirees in red states - have indicted FORTY TIMES as many high Republicans as Democrats. Care to offer wager stakes?)

Also eight years ago, his 1st foreign guests in the White House - Lavrov and Kisliak, giggled with him ecstatically (see below), thinking their KGB tricks had captured the USA. Alas for Putin's lads, it took them 8 more years.



Seven years ago, ol’ Two Scoops promised a “terrific health care bill for everyone!” to replace ‘horrible Obamacare!’  And repeatedly for the next six years he declared “You’ll see it in two weeks!” And then... in 2 weeks. And then... in 2 weeks. And then in 2 weeks… twenty... fifty more times.

Also seven years ago, "Kim Jong Un and I fell in love!" (see above).

Six years ago, Fox “News” declared in court “we don’t do news, we are an entertainment company,” in order to writhe free of liability and perjury for oceans of lies. And still Fox had to pay $150 millions.

Five years ago Trump’s son-in-law was “about to seal the deal on full peace in the Middle East!”

Four years ago, Don promised “Absolute proof the election was stolen by Biden and the dems!" 

Howl after howl by Foxite shills ensued, and yet, not one scintilla of credible evidence was ever presented. While blowhards and blockheads fulminated into secessionist fury, all courts – including many GOP appointed judges - dismissed every 'case' as ludicrous, and several of them fined Trumpist shriekers for frivolous lying. Oh, the screeches and spumes! But not…one…shred of actual evidence. Ever. 

Three years ago, three different GOP Congressmen alluded-to or spoke-of how sex orgies are rife among top DC Republicans. And two of them alluded to resulting blackmail. 

Trump demanded “release the Epstein Files!”... then filed every lawsuit that his lawyers could concoct, in order to prevent it. And to protect an ocean of NDAs. 

Oh, and he promised “Great revelations!” on UFOs and the JFK assassination, just as soon as he got back in office. Remember that? Disappointed, a little? And Epstein's pal is still protected.

Two years ago, Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney and even Mitch McConnell were hinting at a major push to reclaim the Republican Party - or at least a vestigially non-traitor part of it - from the precipice where fanaticism and blackmail and treason had taken it. 

If necessary - (it was said) - they would form a new, Real Rebublican Party, where a minority of decent adults remaining in the GOP 'establishment' might find refuge and begin rebuilding. 

Only it seems that crown prince Ryan & co. chickened out, as he always has... RACO.

One year ago... actually less... the Economist offered this cover plus detailed stats, showing what always happens. That by the end of every Democratic administration, most things - certainly the economy and yes, deficits - are better. And they always get worse across the span of GOP admins. Care to bet this time?



   Alas, now the bitterly laughingstock of the world, deliberately immolating the universities and science and professions that truly Made America Great. 

There's your year-by year Top Ten Hypocricies countdown. And it's worth a try, to see if hammering the same things over and over - which worked so well for the Foxites might be worth a try?


            Oh, sure. Those aren’t my paramount complaints against Putin’s lackey and his shills. 

My main gripe is the one thing that unites them all -- Trump’s oligarchs with foreign enemies and with MAGA groundlings. 

 That one goal? Shared hatred of every single fact using profession, from science and civil service to the FBI/intel/military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on Terror…

... the very ones standing between YOU and a return to feudal darkness.*

These reminder samplers of promises never kept are still valid. They could be effective if packaged properly, And will someone please show me who – in this wilderness – is pointing at them?


== Final lagniappe... a reminder of the most-loathesome of all... ==


* And yeah... here again in the news is the would-be Machiavelli/Wormtongue who flatter-strokes the ingrate, would-be lords who are seeking to betray the one renaissance that gave them everything they have.




Okay, I was planning to finish with a riff (again) on teleologies or notions of TIME. Very different notions that are clutched by the far-left, by today's entire right, and by the beleaguered liberal/middle.


But anon. Another time.


164 comments:

Tony Fisk said...

There is little chance of 'TACO' being reclaimed from the wild.
Fortunately, Trump's narcissism seems incapable of processing such a slur as a valid insult.

I've taken to using 'First Felon', which is short, alliterative, accurate, and addresses the audience.

scidata said...

But he's not made of ground meat on a tortilla. How can he be a taco?
(applying Words Have Meaning rule from "Krembots for Dummies")

M Eklund said...

I still like TACO

These market folks where the term originated are people with skin in the game… wager stakes. And there’s apparently a lot of money to be made by betting that Trump will chicken out (yet again) in whatever his next stated plan is.

Highlighting actual monetary bets on him inevitably flip-flopping seems like a win to me. It also calls out how empty his proclamations (even the strongest) are.

It undermines him with the maddest of red-hatters. It counters his success with the neo-masculinity vote… a group that doesn’t suffer posers lightly. He turned being a felon into a positive with his base… but good luck doing the same with being a chicken.

Sure him backing down is the right and reasonable decision… but that just highlights how terrible the original idea was in the first place.

This hurts him even with people who think it’s a good idea to [fill in embarrassing maga policy goal here]. Trying to point out decade-old hypocrisy doesn’t.

Celt said...

There is only one thing that you can say about Trump's MAGA followers who continue to believe trump even after the ten years of lies you list above.

They are really fucking stupid as well as bigoted.

They are mentally inferior people who cannot be improved educated saved or reasoned with.

Because you can't fix stupid

Tony Fisk said...

Wow! Ukraine certainly caught Russia out with their recent drone strikes on 4 air bases: 40+ Russian planes hit. Drones appear to have been launched from container trucks.

Larry Hart said...

They are really fucking stupid as well as bigoted.

Not necessarily both. If the bigotry is the point, then they don't care about his economic failures. Trump voters abandoned Biden and Democrats over inflation and the price of eggs, but say they're willing to endure economic hardship now because they approve of Trump's policies. It's not the economic policies they approve of. It's the bigotry.

Larry Hart said...

A poignant line from Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull :

"We seem to have reached the age where life stops giving us things and starts taking them away
."

Reminiscent of the line from the Dead Milkmen song "Life is Shit" :

Life takes away the things we love, and it
Robs us of the special ones, and it
Puts them high where we can't climb, and we
Only miss them all the time
.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred DIffer last post:

Languages grow by story telling.


Like the way I can say "Darmok", and you know exactly what I mean.

Unknown said...

Re: cartoon series, the most recent XKCD is great.

Re: languages, I suspect they grow more complex as the societies that speak them do - at least in regards to vocabulary. Decamp pointed out that R.E. Howard's racist characterizations of African languages as guttural and simplistic is dead wrong, and structure varies among languages with no regard to the 'civilization level' of the society. It's almost as if humans have a random language generator built in.
Languages also serve to divide humanity into 'my tribe' and 'barbarian*'. What, in biblical scriptures, happened to those poor guys who pronounce 'shibboleth' in the approved manner?

*if I recall correctly, the original meaning of 'barbarian' is 'couldn't speak Greek'. By that criterion, I'd guess nearly everyone commenting here is a barbarian, myself included.

Pappenheimer

Unknown said...

There's another contingent of Taco Pequeño voters and, more crucially, donors (of money and favorable media treatment) that care only for continuing or even expanding tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy. These are the ones who set the terms of the reconciliation bill the House passed, and that the House GQP is trying to squirm out of explaining. To them, all the rest is window dressing.

Pappenheimer

Unknown said...

correction - pronounced 'shibboleth' in the UNapproved manner?

Pappenheimer

Larry Hart said...

Pappenheimer:

...voters and, more crucially, donors (of money and favorable media treatment) that care only for continuing or even expanding tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy.


That's the civil war going on in the Republican Party as we speak. The goals you speak of are traditional Republican values. They just know that there isn't enough voter support for tax breaks and deregulation, so they ally themselves with the bigots and the Christian nationalists in order to stay in power.

The thing is, now the deplorables who like Trump despise everything establishment, including the Reagan Republicans. Sooner or later, either the Elon Musk faction or the Stephen Miller faction has to realize they've been duped.

reason said...

David, one question, you are talking about hypocrisy and never mention corruption, which is the clear extreme case of Republican hypocrisy. The problem is of course that the Republican Party is the party of hypocrisy. They don't care. They just want to be able to say "both sides do it", so what are you complaining about.

locumranch said...

From the stated inutility of the 'TACO slur' to his ringing condemnations of corruption & hypocrisy, I can't agree with Dr Brin more.

In his most recent book, Jake Tapper of CNN admits that the Fourth Estate of US Legacy Media has routinely misled, misinformed and pretty much lied to the US public about everything related to Joe Biden's political fitness, diminished mental capacity, overall health & laptop-documented familial corruption, along with nearly every aspect of the last 2 presidential elections.

By claiming that Election Fraud had NEVER EVER HAPPENED in the entirety of US history, the US Media then mocked & rejected Trump's Election Fraud allegations, even as the media routinely engaged in said 'election fraud' by lying about everything Joe Biden (per Jake Tapper's admission) while an incredibly partisan US Court successfully convicted Trump on 34 counts of historical misinformation-based 'election fraud' that supposedly NEVER EVER HAPPENED 'in US history' according to Legacy Media reports.

Due to near uniform Legacy Media corruption and capture, our once impartial & trustworthy Fourth Estate is essentially dead, absent, kaput & no more, as evidenced by the fact that most of our television-based news networks have ADMITTED that their programming only qualifies as ENTERTAINMENT, and this includes CNN & MSNBC as well as Fox:

https://ivn.us/2017/04/17/cnn-president-admits-network-entertainment-journalism

https://www.bizpacreview.com/2019/12/28/rachel-maddows-defense-to-oan-defamation-lawsuit-is-that-on-air-statements-shouldnt-be-considered-fact-869161/

The destruction of our Legacy Media has been a long time coming, as it was previously predicted, planned & prescribed by both Norm Chomsky & Edward Bernays, all in order to suborn the public will, subvert democracy and 'Manufacture Consent', and thereby allow the establishment of an elite, highly educated, mostly Ivy educated, technocratic, largely hereditary & EXPERT RULING CLASS which is where we are now.

But, unlike our fine host who absolutely loves the tyranny of EXPERT RULE, I find this sad state of affairs to be both undesirable & intolerable, which is why we need to burn this shitty propaganda-based system down and salt the earth from which it sprang, in order to allow real democracy & majority rule to rise again and flourish.


Best
___

Looking forward to our discussion of Teleology & Finality, btw, as this will most likely expose Progressivism for the massive fraud that it is.

matthew said...

David needs to be careful in pointing out the Machiavellis whispering in the ears of the oligarchs. We tried very hard to be one.

Less than a year ago (still), our host was bragging about his access to, and friendship with, the oligarch that has since done the most damage to the US ever.

David's defense of that oligarch even in the face of his public record of fraud, drug and sex abuse, and open racism is utterly disqualifying. Remember that David trumpted that particular oligarch as his example of how billionaires can be good, over and over again.

Less than a year ago, David was still trying to be Wormtongue. He failed in it, but we should always remember the effort and all the false claims that David made.

David Brin said...


"-Less than a year ago (still), our host was bragging about his access to, and friendship with, the oligarch that has since done the most damage to the US ever." Eat s--- a-hole. You lie. You utterly lie. And were you a man of either means or honor I'd demand... never mind. You're neither. So zzzzzzzzz

Likewise your counterpart

"By claiming that Election Fraud had NEVER EVER HAPPENED in the entirety of US history..." jibber jibber jibber. Find one example.

I do believe US mainstream journalists are sub-alphas for not demanding a "truth-off" between a random 5 hours of Fox vs any legacy network's news division. "Who would judge such a thing?" would be the MAGA whine/fallback. To be answered. "Fifty retired REPUBLICAN voters across the nation, to be organized in the fashion of a Grand Jury to eliminate blatant bias and get a panel openminded enough to look closely at actual facts."

That demand would stand up for their profession. But it's too much like a wager, I guess.

Alfred Differ said...

Yep. The more I think about that script, the more impossible I think the storyline would be in a 'Federation' universe with a universal translator. I suspect ALL languages are analogy structures grown by stories relating experiences. What would stop us from understanding an alien language would be a failure at the bottom layers where we try to get enough of a foothold to get started.

I remember seeing this process described by V.Vinge in the 'Deepness' novel. The humans who arrived at the On-Off star knew that had to look for the equivalent of children's learner books to work out the language of the natives. That technique would have applied equally to a trading ship arriving at an out-of-touch human colony too.

Alfred Differ said...

Meh. That oligarch is obviously on drugs. Brain damage is underway.

Saw another Tesla bumper sticker today. "Bought before the plot twist."

duncan cairncross said...

There are several types of "Election Fraud"
The false voters - double voting and the like
These are real - but are way way down in the irelevant numbers - mayby 300 in the whole of the USA
The false counts - until you went to paper ballots that could be kept and recounted this was a probable problem - but I believe the last two elections all had paper ballots
Gerrymandering, losing ballots, stopping people from voting
THESE are the BIG ONES - I suspect that several MILLION people were directly effected by these.

And one thing is very clear - computers have very little to do with any of these!!
Blaming Musk - nope it was the American people along with a ton of "non computer" dirty tricks from Russia and the GOP

Unknown said...

For those who are looking for TASAT examples, the recent Ukrainian drone strike had an analog in Donald Kingsbury's 'The Moon Goddess and the Son', published in 1986, but perpetrated by Afghans against the Soviet command structure.

Pappenheimer

P.S. we are in danger* of winding up with Curtis Yarvin's feudal technocratic future, but that isn't a stable future, and the techbros know it. That's why they are spending billions on high-tech fortified hideouts; I'm sure there is a rich vein of dystopian SF about life inside one of those...

*hard to tell just how much danger there is, with the amount of pushback I see, but the defcon is definitely higher

Tony Fisk said...

The story that springs to mind is Ben Elton's 'Stark'.
Horizon: Forbidden West pieces together a grim tale as Aloy delves into the ruins of Ted Faro's 'Thebes' bunker. Life as a brainwashed serf of Walter Londro would not have been fun, either: even his personal AI terminated itself when it got the chance!

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

Yep. The more I think about that script [ "Darmok" ], the more impossible I think the storyline would be in a 'Federation' universe with a universal translator.


Yes, there are plenty of questionable aspects of the premise. But I still like the journey of Picard (and the alien) starting the slow climb of understanding until it accelerates. And the ending when we, the viewers, understand that we can follow a conversation in the aliens' language is magical to me.

The flaw isn't so much in the plot itself as that, as you mention, it doesn't seem to fit the known elements of the Star Trek setting. In that sense, it's a bit of "writing to the bit".


I suspect ALL languages are analogy structures grown by stories relating experiences.


Yes, but probably some more than others, even among human languages on Earth. I suspect a universal translator works better with languages that are more legalistic or journalistic, when words and sentence structure really do have very strict meanings.


I remember seeing this process described by V.Vinge in the 'Deepness' novel. The humans who arrived at the On-Off star knew that had to look for the equivalent of children's learner books to work out the language of the natives.


When my own daughter was just learning to talk, I was wondering how she would come to understand things like how I use the word "you" to refer to her, but she's supposed to say "I" to refer to herself. My conclusion from experience is that she learned by overhearing conversations between other people, like the way my wife and I spoke to each other.

Which leads me to a personal anecdote. As a toddler, my daughter was very good at "reading the room" as far as how people speak and behave in certain situations. So we were with a group at a restaurant--not super fancy, but not McDonalds--and my wife asked the server, "What do you have in a white wine?" When it was my daughter's turn, she asked, "What do you have in a Sprite?"

Tony Fisk said...

At around 15 months, our daughter one day decided the sound to make was 'ba!', which she proceeded to do with great monotony and volume.
Yelling this incantation, she ascended her parental climbing frame, leaned in close to my ear, and... dropped her 'ba's to a whisper.
Not sure what that says about language development, but it suggests theory of mind had advanced to 'would other like loud noise in ear any more than I would?' stage.

scidata said...

Imagine what it's been like for me, having spent 40+ years in A.I. professionally, to watch my kids grow and learn (esp. language), and eventually far outstrip my own intellect. It gives me great confidence that we are not headed back to the caves anytime soon.

matthew said...

You personally enabled the druggie oligarch. You protected and defended him again and again. You can never be trusted, asshole.

David Brin said...

The cheaters adapt. For 2 decades, GOP cheaters used e-voting machines without paper receipts or ballots, made by companies with close GOP ties. Paper receipts or ballots were primarily in blue areas. Eventually lawsuits etc forced adoption of paper receipts to be universal, so they claimed "WE did that!" And proceeded to lose boxes of ballots or screech about fake switcheroos.

What dems are too dumb to do is demand fierce RANDOM AUDITS of contested precincts. Also too dumb to do? Make a national campaign to re-register Republican in red districts.

David Brin said...

" It gives me great confidence that we are not headed back to the caves anytime soon."

one hopes. But the New Lords - driven by a million years of male reproductive (unsapient) reflex - seek to re-establish rule by inheritance and to shunt brilliant you folks into the role of obedient, obeisant 'boffins.'

In EXISTENCE I portrayed a meeting in the Alps of trillionaires seeking a better hybrid. A plan to meritocratically recruit the finest new minds and marry them into the lordly families, instead of the failed approach of such inbred clans marrying incestuously into each other.

Instead, what I have personally witnessed is a brain drain FROM such families, of their own brainiest scions, fleeing the insipidity of great wealth into the far more interesting realms of arts and especially science.

scidata said...

Things are optimistic, almost Florentine up here these days. Today's weather report says, "smoke from distant wildfires will enhance the sunset".

Hellerstein said...

Dr. Brin:

"TACO" is Wall Street's way to put wager-stakes into practice. They're putting serious money into Trump always chickening out, and making money from it. They're following your advice!

As for him being shamed into recklessness: he's already reckless and shameless, and it would be shame either way.

What really insults him isn't being called a chicken, but being called Mexican food. Which, unlike him, can be stomached.

locumranch said...

“It was election fraud. Pure and simple,” prosecutor Matthew Colangelo said in his opening statement.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-verdict-hush-money-trial-rcna152492

As documented above, the New York Court System has offered up a very specific legal definition of what constitutes 'Election Fraud' when it ruled that monies exchanged for the specific purpose of silencing, hiding, disguising or altering 'the Truth' in manner that may impact an election outcome constitutes ELECTION FRAUD.

By this precedent, the above definition now constitutes US Law and, since "Nobody is above the Law" in the USA, this unique definition of 'Election Fraud' now applies to EVERYBODY, including & especially those lying liars in the Biden Administration & Legacy Media who willfully spread half truths, lies & misinformation to the US voter during election season to effect and corrupt election outcomes.

It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! Since the Biden Administration and Legacy Media deliberately LIED in order to unfairly influence the last few US elections while exchanging monies & their equivalent, they most definitely committed ELECTION FRAUD. So you get nothing! You lose! Good day, Sir!

That said, Matthew & all those like him who resort to Ad Hominem Attacks in place of well reasoned argument are most definitely ASSHATS.


Best

Unknown said...

Re: dystopian technocratic fiction, I just remembered the vintage role-playing game Paranoia, which fills that bill pretty well - cloned workers living underground in fear of a Commie menace that maybe once existed, lives regulated by an insane computer, secretly ruled by High Programmers who live in luxury.

Pappenheimer

Larry Hart said...

"smoke from distant wildfires will enhance the sunset"

Well, that smoke is enhancing the sunset here in Chicago too. I wonder if Von Schitzenpantz will put a tariff on it.

Larry Hart said...

"Transparency"

https://www.threads.com/@factpostnews/post/DKXaFqhBMzR

Host: What is your thought on the ban of foreign students, you were one of those kids, right?

Elon Musk: I think we want to stick to talking about spaceships.

Host: Oh, okay. I was told that any topic is good.

Musk: No, well... no

.

Larry Hart said...

https://www.threads.com/@stonekettle

Rainbows are actually a manifestation of physics, some might say God, caused by refraction and dispersion of sunlight demonstrating that what we simpletons perceive as a monolithic "white" light is actually a SPECTRUM of color representing a broad range of... oh shit. Never mind.


Looks like Stonekettle is channeling my now-standard response to "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs."

Which is, "You also can't make an omelet without mixing the white parts and the colored parts together and then adding in a bunch of diverse foreign ingredients."

Larry Hart said...

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2025/Items/May31-1.html

The courts have been asked, many times, to examine the pardon power, and have imposed some constraints that are not present in the Constitution. For example, the courts have decided that pardons cannot be granted for future offenses, only past ones.


"By my hand, and for the good of the state, the bearer has done what has been done."

David Brin said...

locum: Again, step up with $$$ stakes for a truth-off between Fox & say NBC. Using grand Jury rules and methods, I'll even let the judges be 50 random (but GJ vetted) REPUBLICANS! You Kremlin boys don't dare. And that reveals the basic truth. You are not men.

Hellerstein said...

Give Brin some slack. He bought into Musk before the plot twist.

Hellerstein said...

You say sibboleth, I say shibboleth. Sibboleth, shibboleth, sibboleth, shibboleth, let's call the whole thing off!

David Brin said...

You'll recall I predicted that we'd see a return to use in the air of the device that had been Queen of the Battlefield across the last third of the 20th Century.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhx6Yuxqi0Y

I expected this to happen in winter fog, not in summer sun. And it may be a rare fluke-gambit. Or else a test for something bigger.

Tony Fisk said...

Interesting follow up to the airfield ops (41 strategic bombers now confirmed destroyed)

Tony Fisk said...

...and this is how you handle a pack of armed thugs posing as a police force.

David Brin said...

Meyers pillories the "Joe Biden was senile!" rants effectively. Yet he misses the point. Biden appointed 5000 of the nation's best grownups to every high position. Not one indicted and all calmly mature and brilliant. With Austin, Milley and Blinken on the job - and yes, Harris - I slept very well and did not mind a wise old man taking naps. Now, name for me ONE Trump appointee of that caliber... or even the caliber of William Barr or John Mitchell... or a tardigrade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0IVelzKNJE

Tony Fisk said...

Kellogg seems to have some capacity...
But yes, loyalty to glorious leader who shall be superior to his underlings in every way is the rule.

Larry Hart said...

I've been wondering how long it would take for citizens to do armed resistance. Looks like the arms aren't even necessary. Makes me wonder if the stormtroopers' guns were even real ones.

Larry Hart said...

Also...I'm getting a "shot heard 'round the world" vibe.

Lloyd Flack said...

The guns and armour are things that they can easily be mocked for. They are seldom in situations that call for miliary style equipment.

Lloyd Flack said...

It might be easier to set up a dare if the stakes are simply embarrassment rather than money. Suggest a means of adjudication and try to get the other person to state how they believe the dispute should be judged. The aim is to get them to expose that they are not willing to accept any means of adjudication that might prove them wrong. Focus of how they are forming beliefs rather than what their beliefs are.

Tony Fisk said...

I suppose the guns, armour, and camo add to the 'border war' narrative for someone keen to revoke habeas corpus, and invoke enemy aliens.
(the situation strikes me as an inversion of the scene in 'Aliens' where a marine responds to the order to disarm weapons with 'What are we meant to use, harsh language?')

Alfred Differ said...

If the Darmok script had been altered a bit it could have been used to explain how their universal translator came to be. Make it a time travel episode with a non-human federation member coming forward and then returning... and their people joining with the translator fully developed.

There are other ways to make small adjustments and keep most of the meat and potatoes too.

Alfred Differ said...

Yah. Not just Wall Street. I wasn't using the term 'taco' during his first administration, but I was speculating on the periodicity he created in prices. Got it right often enough to be ahead of investing the S&P index.

Nowadays I look for his news drops to alter the VIX. I sit on tech stocks and sell covered options. Offers to sell or buy rights to buy or sell. Volatility amps up sale prices, but it takes courage to sit on the underlying shares when 20% of their value evaporates.

Larry Hart said...

The "Biggest scandal in history/Bigger than Watergate" montage evokes Kent Brockman on The Simpsons covering the campers' rioting at Kamp Krusty:

"I've been to Korea, Nam, and Iraq, and I can say without hyperbole that this is a million times worse than all of them combined!"

Tony Fisk said...

One of my idle musings has involved using naval drones to quietly stack explosives around the supports to the Kerch Strait bridge... seems it was someone else's as well.

Celt said...

I will bet that Iowa will remain Red. Why do I say this?

Despite Sen. Ernst's heartlessness, the gutting of Medicaid to pay for billionaire tax cuts, the tariffs ruining their corn and soybean exports, ICE decimating their field and meat packing plant work force, no FEMA funds next time a tornado wipes out one of their towns, and the impossibility of getting insurance afterwards.

Why?

Because nobody voted for Trump for economic reasons.

The price of eggs was just an excuse so they would not have to openly admit that there was no way in hell racist, sexist small town white evangelicals were ever going to vote for a black woman.

People vote for Trump out of fear of whites being in the minority by 2040, revulsion at gay marriage, the 5 total trans athletes in the NCAA, and the possibility that the brown people they use as pseudo slave labor could become American citizens.

Iowa will stay a Red state because it is a state chock full of racist fucks.

It's as simple as that.

And I for one will enjoy watching them all suffer as a result of their own stupid bigotry.

Its what they deserve.

Celt said...

P.S. In general, I don't think MAGA folks have a clue yet as to how much they are despised and hated by the rest of us that make up the decent and intelligent portion of the American population.

We hope your economy fails due to the very policies of the man you abandoned Jesus to worship.

We hope tornados, wildfires and hurricanes leave you with nothing but ghost towns and you end up living in tents because FEMA has been cut.

We hope climate change ruins your farming economy because you idiots believe that its a hoax.

We hope you lose your slave labor because of ICE deportations, the slave labor that is the foundation of your economy.

At one time we wanted to understand you, perhaps talk to you and win you over, meet you half way.

But you showed us what kind of people you really are by electing Trump yet again.

So we no longer give a fuck about you.

And some bad shit is rolling your way, shit of your own making, shit that you deserve.

David Brin said...

Sorry Celt. While we are allies and I like you, you are part of the problem.

"Iowa will stay a Red state because it is a state chock full of racist fucks.
It's as simple as that."

No it is not that simple. It is spectacularly not.

1. Iowa used to elect some of the most liberal politicians in America. To this day, the Democrats of Iowa are MORE liberal than average and leftward politicians like Sanders go there to get a boost in quadrennial primary races for nomination.

2. Yes, Republicans in Iowa (the majority) have swung hard right along with the whole GOP. But your diagnosis only feeds the resentments fostered by Fox.

3. Are many Republicans racist? Or gender troglodytes? Sure. Only most of them will deny it. They look at Clarence Thomas and dark faces on Fox and nod: "See? I LOVE the good ones!"

Is that still racist? Yep! As was the Obama birther raving-BS. But that - plus multiracial couples on Fx ads - gives them plenty of excuse to claim "I don't FEEL racist! And those accusations are just liberal bullying!"

ESPECIALLY after an election when millions of Blacks and Hispanics abandoned the liberal coalition because THEY felt bullied by lefty symbolism-enforcers.

What you and LarryHart and others refuse ever to do is to look at the actual tally of MINUTES SPENT in Orwellian hate sessions on Fox and who they rail against. AND ALMOST NONE OF IT IS AIMED AT RACES. Tone the are implicitly racist, sure, against immigrants. But by far the majority of rants are against the fact-professions. Civil servants, science, FBI... all of those who stand in the way of oligarchy.

I say this till I am blue in the face, asking for those minutes-of-hate tallies. And you guys never do it.

Dig it. We do not have to convince or convert all the knuckle-draggers. We only have to:

1. rebuild the coalition that was wrecked by our own sanctimony yowlers

and

2. Peel off from THEIR coalition maybe just 5 millions who CAN be reached by reason.

Challenge them? Yeah. My wager demands are aggressive! But I don't curse my neighbors.

Celt said...

I'm sorry Dr. Brin, but I feel you are way too subtle and nuanced for a situation that now calls for a meat cleaver approach.

Besides "we're all going to die."

scidata said...

There is a fleeting nature to 'their' anti-science bent. It must be constantly refreshed like the dynamic RAM in computers. Some of the most ardent supporters of citizen science and amateur astronomy I've met are red staters. It's not a question of 'meeting them half way'. It's a task of giving them confidence to unleash their inner, and perhaps long dormant, curiosity. Hatred may sometimes be justified, but it is never wise. And scolding/preaching is far less effective than embodying.

Tell me and I forget
Teach me and I remember
Involve me and I learn
- Benjamin Franklin

Hellerstein said...

Trump's latest absurdity is retweeting a claim that Biden is a robot clone. Never mind that robots and clones are entirely different. My point now is that Trump's accusations are all confessions. This suggests that Trump is a robot clone. So may we call him that?

locumranch said...

Dr Brin proposes "a truth-off between Fox & say NBC" and demands 'wager stakes' in order to prove that Fox News self-describes as "entertainment", even though (1) these facts are not in dispute and (2) CNN & MSNBC have also self-described as "entertainment", too.

Furthermore, our host fails to differentiate between 'fact-users' and 'fact-tellers' as he dismisses the many many lies of his Expert Management Class with an 'ends over means' argument that excuses & rationalizes away the perpetuation of a massive Biden Administration fraud on the US voter:

Meyers pillories the "Joe Biden was senile!" rants (yet) he misses the point. Biden appointed 5000 of the nation's best grownups to every high position.

The hypocrisy here is MASSIVE, even made more apparent by the many progressives here who appear to be CELEBRATING the recent violent attacks on federal law enforcement & immigration officers, just days before an undocumented & illegal alien tries to burn innocent Jews to death in Boulder CO, but not too long after the very same progressive celebrants condemned the J6 attacks on federal law enforcement officers as a treasonous insurrection.

It's possible that Dr Brin may be the last adult in the room in this regard, yet even he becomes complicit if he turns a blind eye to such insane Celt levels of hypocrisy, hatred & lies because these are the very qualities which will form the basis of his grand progressive coalition.


Best

Celt said...

Hypocrisy? Is it possible to defeat evil without becoming evil yourself at least for the duration of the conflict?

During WW2 the RAF and the USAF incinerated entire populations of German and Japanese noncombatants, women and children - reducing entire cities to ashes and later into radioactive rubble.

Was that hypocritical?

You either get as mean and nasty as your enemy or you lose.

And if we liberals lose, both democracy and the planet will die.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

What you and LarryHart and others refuse ever to do...


In the past, you've accused me of being one of the lefties who drove blacks and Hispanics away. Not that I have any sort of influence in the Democratic Party or among political liberals, but to the extent that I've spoken about demanding use of "Latinx" or using "they/them" as a singular, I've been against that sort of thing, not for it. How many times have I said about some ridiculous lefty demand, "I'm not going to vote Republican because of that, but I can understand why some do."


...plenty of excuse to claim "I don't FEEL racist! And those accusations are just liberal bullying!"


You think I'm shouting "Racist!" at them personally? I doubt that the FOX faithful are reading this blog and being driven to Trump's arms by what we say to each other. But in order to remain sane, it's important to be able to assert, among friends, that 2 + 2 really does equal 4 and not "whatever the party says it is."


AND ALMOST NONE OF IT IS AIMED AT RACES


They might not feel racist, but when voters who derided Biden for inflation and the deficit now insist that they're ok with some economic pain because they approve of Trump's policies, I sure get the feeling that the policies they approve of are being mean to immigrants, Muslims, and trans people. And sorry, but removing all official references to prominent women, blacks, and immigrants in order to paint a picture that only white Christian men are producers of value and that all others are "DEI hires"...is racist. Or if that's not quite the right word, it's still bad for the same reason that racism is bad.


We only have to:
1. rebuild the coalition that was wrecked by our own sanctimony yowlers...


That seems to be happening on its own as the ones who effed around are in the "find out" stage.

As for Celt's rant, I probably wouldn't have said so out loud, but I can't say I disagree with the sentiment. There's a difference between the true deplorables and the ones who have come to their senses and bemoan what it is they have wrought. If they're now on the side of good instead of evil, I'm happy to work with them to save American democracy. But for the ones who take pleasure in the damage they've helped do to the country until they notice that the leopards are eating their own faces, my heart is hardened. There are too many true victims of Trumpism to spend much time or energy worrying about sympathy for the Trumpists themselves.

Larry Hart said...

You either get as mean and nasty as your enemy or you lose.

Remember the Star Trek episode with Abraham Lincoln and Genghis Khan, in which the alien didn't see any substantive difference between the way the "good" team and the "evil" team fought. Kirk pointed out that the difference was not in the fighting tactics each side used, but their reason for fighting. If they won, the "evil" side had been offered what they wanted most...power. But for Kirk, "You offered me the life of my crew".

TheMadLibrarian said...

Trump is more of a burrito -- completely wrapped up in himself.

Celt said...

Anyone who thinks you can be nice and defeat evil needs to read "The Last Article" by Harry Turtledove.

Celt said...

Larry, very few Trump voters regret their vote.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-poll-low-approval-rating-regrets-rcna203972

Trump’s approval rating is low, but good luck finding those who regret their vote
The Public Religion Research Institute conducted a poll of more than 5,000 adults across 50 states between Feb. 28 and March 20 and found that 92% of Trump voters are satisfied with their vote.

Larry Hart said...

There are ways in which one can remain better than ones enemies and still win. It did not hurt George Washington that the revolutionary army didn't torture its prisoners even though the British did. Ukraine likewise treats their captives better than Russia does, and that's a help, not a hinderance to the war effort.

Larry Hart said...

Celt, from the article you cited:

But PRRI’s poll is consistent with a poll released April 14 by the University of Massachusetts Amherst that found that only 2% of Trump voters polled answered yes to “I regret my vote and would vote differently if I could.”


A loss of 2% of his voters might well have swung the elections.

Also, they're asking Trump voters. I wonder how many Biden-2020 voters who sat out the 2024 election regret their non-vote.


And both those polls are consistent with a survey The New York Times conducted among a focus group last month that found that none of the 13 independent voters who voted for Trump in November regrets not voting for Harris.


Interesting wording there. Not "regrets voting for Trump", but "regrets not voting for Harris." In other words, they think Harris would have been worse. Perhaps they would have voted for an old church-going white guy with a record of accomplishment to his name, but just didn't feel right about the DEI candidate?

It's alt-history now, but I felt all along that Biden had the best chance of beating Trump of all the potential Dem candidates. And that's true even if he didn't have a chance--the others had even less of one.

scidata said...

Larry Hart: Perhaps they would have voted for an old church-going white guy

So many on the left lament that if only Biden had withdrawn sooner and there had been a primary, Harris could have won. Scott Galloway is among the strongest for that argument.

That misses the point that others make (including here in CB): a black woman had an uphill battle. And she was fading in the last few weeks of the campaign, not strengthening.

David Brin said...

LH's last three posts here were very good. Thoguh the 'black woman" thing about Harris is malarkey. She was way ahead and then faded as Foxite attacks on wokeism gained the news cycle without useful polemical response.

Fans are writing that this hearkens to the "Cyclops" AI - (or not) - in The Postman.https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bankrupt-microsoft-backed-ai-company-was-using-indian-engineers-fake-it-report

Darkest: This one both amuses and terrifies me: (actually the 1st half, then it gets kinds boring.)https://www.facebook.com/ScienceNaturePage/videos/1468324667636957/

Celt said...

"they think Harris would have been worse"

I suggest that the fact that she is a black woman probably led to their conclusion.

Which beings me back to my basic premise.

Nobody votes for Trump for economic reasons.

Its all about race/gender/sexuality.

Celt said...

"I do believe US mainstream journalists are sub-alphas for not demanding a "truth-off" between a random 5 hours of Fox vs any legacy network's news division. "

Sorry, Dr. Brin, but the MAGA folks seem to care very little about truth or facts in the first place.

Unknown said...

The last time a democratic candidate for the Presidency won the majority of the White vote was 1964. I wonder what happened between 1964 & 1968...

Don Gisselbeck said...

To paraphrase someone (Ta Nahisi Coates?), a good quarter of Americans would rather slit their own throats than live in peace and prosperity with people they despise.

reason said...

I think there is a great deal of truth in this: https://digbysblog.net/2025/06/03/back-to-normalcy/ - cut out the jargon, and you can get a long way. A lot of the whole issue is about language. And that is another thing, attack the double-speak coming from the other side. Words have meanings. If we don't stick to them, we can't communicate at all.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

LH's last three posts here were very good. Thoguh the 'black woman" thing about Harris is malarkey. She was way ahead and then faded as Foxite attacks on wokeism gained the news cycle without useful polemical response.


Probably "woman" was more decisive than "black" in that sense. But my point is that neither Harris nor Walz (and certainly not Biden) were advocating anything "woke". So what is the dynamic that caused voters to abandon them? "These lefties don't like Trump, so I'll punish them by voting for him?"

How is that Harris's or Biden's fault?

* * *
Celt:

Which beings me back to my basic premise.

Nobody votes for Trump for economic reasons.


The key to a future victory won't be in winning MAGAts over to our side. It will be in getting back the voters who aren't MAGAts who didn't vote.

locumranch said...


You either get as mean and nasty as your enemy or you lose.
And if we liberals lose, both democracy and the planet will die.


After declaring the conservative to be an existential threat & the enemy of everything progressive, Celt reveals that anything & everything is permitted in the pursuit of progressivism, including fraud, lies, more lies, criminality, bloodshed and massive hypocrisy, as this logical construct provides justification for every immoral act.

This is an extremely dodgy argument for any supporter of reciprocal accountability to make.


Best

A.F. Rey said...

You either get as mean and nasty as your enemy or you lose.

Celt reveals that anything & everything is permitted in the pursuit of progressivism, including fraud, lies, more lies, criminality, bloodshed and massive hypocrisy, as this logical construct provides justification for every immoral act.

Well thank you for admitting that your "side" deals in, specifically, fraud, lies, more lies, criminality, bloodshed and massive hypocrisy. We've been telling you that for years, and it finally got through to you. :D

Now listen when we tell you about all the other stuff that MAGAts do, too.

David Brin said...

How is that Harris's or Biden's fault?" Jeepers. 5% of our side gave Fox deliberate ammo every single day. And NOT denouncing the extremum of stoopidity was the big mistake by H&B

Lloyd Flack said...

Interesting I've claims that the Ukrainians went for the wing spars. Those are something that would be difficult to replace, probably in Russia now impossible.

Larry Hart said...

And NOT denouncing the extremum of stoopidity was the big mistake by H&B

President Biden specifically said things like, "I don't want to defund the police. I want to FUND the police."

Harris pointed out that as a prosecutor, she prosecuted criminals, including those who were here illegally.

The only thing they didn't do--and couldn't do--is to completely abandon Israel. Had they done so, it would have cost more votes than it would have gained.

The lefty purists who you blame for our loss also didn't particularly like Biden or Harris--for being too centrist and too willing to negotiate with the right.

David Brin said...

Simply the best thing I have seen. Maybe ever! Certainly today.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1017759143684050

David Brin said...

LH I never said they didn't try. What they never did was attack the SYSTEMATC faults of the far left and entire gone-mad right.

Unknown said...

Dr Brin,

I could argue that the GQP is in power right now because it didn't attack the far right, while Democrats spent too much attacking the far left. Circular firing squads are a Democratic cliché.

Pappenheimer

David Brin said...

You could 'argue' it... and it is malarkey, easily disproved by the simple fact that none of the woke police who are screaming 'acists!" in the faces of even moderate republicans - and a lot of moderate democrats - are terrified of ever approaching the millions of Blacks and Hispanics who they drove out of the coalition, and asking them "why?"

The answers won't fit the sanctimony-junkie narratives.

In 2021 'moderate' Pelosi's passed bills that did more good in any day than all the pronoun shrieks and letting people with penises smash girls on sports fields ever did.

Tony Fisk said...

Videoes I've seen would suggest the wingspars were a target.
re: helicopter raid. Taking out the rear units also means the forward units don't have 'encouragement' to advance.

reason said...

David I wish the discussion on sports could be more rational.
1. Almost all the notorious cases in elite sports involve intersexuals not transsexuals and that issue is hardly ever discussed.
2. Why should the government get involved at all? Why not leave it up to the sports?
3. I stayed at a Scandic hotel and they had unisex toilets. Would solve a lot of problems, I think.
4. Why does it matter outside of elite sports? There are plenty of mixed competitions at lower levels.

Tony Fisk said...

I don't buy the trans issue as being *the* deciding factor in Harris losing the election.
It's not really an issue that people flip a dime over, yet a strong anti-trans policy didn't help the sitting mayor of Omaha.

Celt said...

"No it is not that simple."

If it walks like a racist duck, quacks like a racist duck and swims like a racist duck, its a racist duck.

Larry Hart said...


In 2021 'moderate' Pelosi's passed bills that did more good in any day

A tangent, but I remind everyone that while lefty shriekers considered Nancy Pelosi a moderate, everyone else considered her "The most liberal speaker in history." Ahead of the 2006 midterms, Glen Beck was apoplectic at the mere thought that she might ascend to the speakership.


letting people with penises smash girls on sports fields ...


You seem overly obsessed with this particular image. I somehow can't see boys going through the life-changing and potentially-embarrassing process of transitioning to female in order to cheat at sports or to see girls undress in the locker room. The ones who seem to indulge in such adolescent fantasies are not gays or trans people, but repressed religious heterosexual men.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

Thoguh the 'black woman" thing about Harris is malarkey. She was way ahead and then faded as Foxite attacks on wokeism gained the news cycle without useful polemical response.


I was just reminded of one reason the dems faded last spring. It was when Von Schitzenpantz did that fist-up thing after pretending to have been shot when someone else's blood splattered on his ear. We never really recovered from that moment.

scidata said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
matthew said...

David would have the Dems double down again on things that did not work. He is truly a political savant. "Let's try appealing to the centrists. Again."

Fool.

A.F. Rey said...

But what would that precisely accomplish, David?
It will piss off the 5% that gives Fox deliberate ammo every day. We would lose at least 20% of them, if not 50% or 80%. So Democrats lose 1% - 4%, or so, of their support. And you'll never be able to silence that 5%.
Meanwhile, although Fox might mention the attacks of the systematic faults of the far left, they will also continue to pound into their viewers that the Democrats are still the most liberal party the history of the U.S., surpassing even those in the far left that they criticize. :( A leopard can't change it spots, they'll tell their viewers.
So maybe we might get 6% of the Republicans. Or maybe only 2% or 3%. And then maybe lose 4% of the far left. So it might help a little, or hurt a little.
Alienating those who are already on our side is a risky endeavor that can easily backfire. We need to convert the existing Republicans, not by weakening our values, but by showing them that our values are their values. The values of freedom, respect, lawfulness, and such.
I just wish I knew how. :(

Larry Hart said...

I said:

When my own daughter was just learning to talk, I was wondering how she would come to understand things like how I use the word "you" to refer to her, but she's supposed to say "I" to refer to herself. My conclusion from experience is that she learned by overhearing conversations between other people, like the way my wife and I spoke to each other.


I just realized that AI is not being taught that way. If it's scouring the internet for the way language is used, it is predominantly reading monologues, not dialogue. Is that a flaw?

Larry Hart said...

OMG, I gotta love the snark (of the second paragraph).

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2025/Items/Jun04-1.html

...
There is also, as we note above, another bit of Trumponomics-related news from yesterday. Now that he's been cut loose, Elon Musk is on a bit of a verbal rampage. It was already no secret that he doesn't like the big, beautiful bill, but yesterday he got out the napalm and decreed that: "This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it." He also declared that "In November next year, we fire all politicians who betrayed the American people." Republican members of Congress who share Musk's view, like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), cheered the billionaire's words. Republican members of Congress who disagree, like Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), lamented his apparent apostasy.

Who knows what will happen next. At this point, it feels like the end of an episode of the 1960s Batman: Will Elon remain butthurt about getting tossed out on his keister? Will he stay involved with politics or will he lose interest? Will he use his money to try to bring down leading Republicans in Congress, even if that means electing Democrats? Will he go to war with Donald Trump? Tune in tomorrow for the next exciting episode; same Musk time, same Musk channel
.

David Brin said...

"I don't buy the trans issue as being *the* deciding factor in Harris losing the election..."
...and I never even remotely asserted that. What I did say is that every single night Fox & co pointed at the latest sanctimony raving and gleefully cried out "See? Even if our side has gone crazy, ALL Democrats are like THAT!!!"

Bill Maher is a snarky jerk whose attempts to 'bridge the divide' are kinda pathetic. Still... ALMOST EVERY one of his crits aimed at wokeist sanctimony bullies is entirely apropos.

matthew is back to being our lefty raving locumranch:

1. I very clearly >2 years ago said that Musk's rightward veer toward oligarch flatterers was partly driven by imbeciles on the left, hypocritically screeching in the face of an Aspergers. But still, he should have had the sapience to see all that and still remain loyal to the Enlightenment that gave him everything.

OI did say that although he was sliding into the camp of oligarch enemies of that enlightenment, nevertheless. AT THAT TIME his net effects on us all were massively positive and we should START by attacking the real manipulator lords who had NO positive contributions. THAT was my 'defense of Elon...

...and I could not have predicted - but noted, when it happened - how overwhelmingly and devastatingly he reversed that ratio of good to bad effects. And I say so, openly now. And matthew can go get bent with his utterly lying portrayal...

... especially as - ON ANY GIVEN DAY - I do more in this fight than he has done in a year, or possibly his life. So sneer away ass-h---. But that disparity in actual value to the cause makes you nothing but a zzzzzzzzzzz

2. Oh, the other idiocy. WHERE will tilting MORE leftward get you the needed votes, fool? Again, ASK THE BLACKS AND HISPANICS and union men who deserted our coalition what their complaints were. You... don't... dare. Winning them back is job #1. And a 'leftist' who knows nothing about what the word 'Left' even means is in no position to lecture.

David Brin said...

Musk is not attacking the Big Bill from the left, for the harm it does and dismantling the civil service. Not is he complaining about the massive tax grifts for lords. He is complaining that the deficit will balloon because his cuts were replaced in the budght by goody grabs by other oligarchs.

In other words, I am thje one right now pointing out that his objections are NOT those of an ally.

Anyone allied with Rand Paul is an idiot or enemy of the Republic.

matthew said...

Labor UK is right now following David's advice and turning away from protecting immigrants and trans folks. Watch how much that is helping them. Labor UK have given Nigel Farage a chance to be in charge. Yep, that sure is a good model for the Democrats.

David's attempts to use autism as an excuse for Elon are frankly insulting to those of us that actually know and love autistic people. Using autism as an excuse for asshole behavior is just so... able-ist.

And it is insulting to watch David try to spin his decade-long attempt to ingratiate himself with a billionaire oligarch as something other than being self-serving bullshit. David, you bragged for years about this and now you want to pretend that you did not do it?!?

And no, David, you do not do more than the rest of us, you egomaniac.

You are an author that wrote a couple of minor hits in the 80s and you like to give paid talks to the people that love surveillance capitalism.
You are *not* saving the world, you are saving for your retirement.

Larry Hart said...

I am thje one right now pointing out that his [Elon's] objections are NOT those of an ally.

And yet, he more than anyone else might have the cred and the resources to produce a backlash against the BBBill from MAGA.

At the very least, they won't know who to root for.

reason said...

David with regards to lost Black and Hispanic votes - I'm afraid this is the explanation: https://digbysblog.net/2025/06/01/the-obvious-explanation/

Celt said...

And here I was focusing on the racism while not paying enough heed to the misogyny. Of course with Kamala, we got a twofer.

Maybe we need to patiently wait for an entire generation of white males to pass away before America becomes a better place.

Would also recommend Trae Crowder (aka The Liberal Redneck):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCzr9_G2UOQ
Liberal Redneck - Why Do Rural Americans Vote For a Party Which So Clearly Hates Them?

David Brin said...

reason, that screed is utter drivel and you'll note that just like poor shril m, the writer DOES NOT ACTUALLY ASK ANYONE why they defected from the coalition. THAT is racism, pure and also santomoniously patronizing. And sanctimonious patronization IS (I assert, having actually asked) the biggest reason for the defections

And let me repeat, I do more in this fight any dqaay than matthew does in a year. The rest of whjat he says is pure swill, but I have no time for it above-all because he deserves and has earned no respect.

I bother and am attacked by some of your enemies, turd. You - to them - are only a bug.

matthew said...

Quisling.

scidata said...

RIP Marc Garneau, first Canadian in space.

David Brin said...

Because it costs nothing to paste: AGAIN... " I do more in this fight - against YOUR enemies - any day than you do in a year.... I bother and am attacked by a fair number of your enemies, while you bother them not a bit. zzzzzzz

David Brin said...

Similar fellow on the diametrically opposite side... but VASTLY more effective...
....I’ve dissected this nasty, ingrate “endarkenment” fetish - its roots and openly-touted plans for us. Okay, now the New Yorker and NY Times have noticed a jibbering savanarola-to-inheritance-brats, with whom I've had run-ins for well over a decade and a half, ever since this here would-be Machiavelli only 'influenced' a few sci fi fans who deemed Ayn Rand much too lib'rul.

Now? More famous than me at last: congrats &yippee! Enjoy the glee, oh rationalizer to ingrates. In sci fi terms, he and his prepper/bunker-builder followers will be satisfied with nothing less than the illiterate, re-stratified darkness of A CANTICLE FOR LIEBOWITZ.

(See: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/09/curtis-yarvin-profile

They know that nothing less will suffice. The vast, educated middle class has access to powerful technologies that -- should we become enraged -- could make the guillotine seem like louffah. Hence, the very concepts of science and democracy and meritocracy, as great equalizers and spurs to competitive creativity, must be undermined and then destroyed in un-sapient, reflexively masturbatory eagerness to re-gather the harems of feudalism.

In fact, it was with this character that I first learned the most essential trait of incel-poseurs... their cowardice in the face of fact-based challenges. Because, of course, ALL of his justifying assertions for raving against the 80 year Rooseveltean Renaissance (humanity's best era, by far) are false. All of them, every single one. And hence, offered neutral-adjudicated cash wagers over them, he fled. And thus ever the pattern with ingrate yammerers.

Lately, in his role as ‘Thiel-Whisperer‘ and ‘Speaker-to-Gullibles,’ this lobotomizer-to-oligarchs – Moldbug, also known as Curtis Yarvin -- prompted me to ponder an outrageously cartoony fantasy character --
-- the bewitcher-of-Thèoden, Tolkien’s Grima Wormtongue. See the picture at

https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2024/12/neoreactionaries-redux-oh-my.html

Alfred Differ said...

AI is not being taught that way

On the contrary. Look at what we do here and tell me this is a giant monologue. Social media contains screeds that look like it, but they are generally in response to a cause... which admittedly can be difficult to find.

Much of our fiction also contains characters talking to each other.

Much of what passes for journalism today also involves tits for tats.

Just back up a bit and squint. We do a LOT of talking to and at each other. Any AI training on the broadest data will pick up on that.

Alfred Differ said...

They won't know who to root for? Seriously?

No. They will root for Trump.
Musk was being played for a useful chump.
Happens a lot in politics.

reason said...

David, I think numbers talk louder than what people tell you, (which is often an attempt to hide the uncomfortable reality from themselves). Sexism is a huge problem, particularly (though not only) in the US. I don't like the idea of the presidency, but perhaps there is a reason that the US is the only Western country that has never had a female head of state.

Tim H. said...

Before it's host moved to Patreon, I saw a comment on "Gin and tacos" That one could be screwed by Democrats as well as by Republicans, but the Democrats would apologize and would even warm the probe and use lube. The commenter, as well as I, see that as a substantial difference. This applies mostly to mainstream Democrats, who might be happier to be conservatives, I know I'd be happier with conservatives no further gone than Pelosi or Schumer. Perhaps, if the (Formerly) GOP collapses, there'd be room for a party in the space where FDR's Democrats (Not entirely happily) worked. For the moment, the Democrats compromise politics are preferable to me, potentially even better if their donor community feels self reliant enough for government to focus on the most good for the most people.

Der Oger said...

Short interruption of my exile from this site:

Please don't use the TACO slur.

Ignore that advice and do the opposite.

It is essential at this stage not to obey in advance and give up on civil protest and disobedience, or the consequences might be far more dire.

Suggesting otherwise, to submit to authoritarianism for fear of retribution is akin to hosting measle parties for kids. Or telling someone to be quite lest he is hurt more while he/she is raped.

Plus, allowing them to change to a slower pace of transformation (as Orban, Erdogan and Putin have proven) will increase their chances of success, while if the outrage level remains high, they will loose even the MAGA coalition.

And remember, sacrificing the lives and dignity of any group - whether in compromise or sincerely believing it is for "the greater good" - will end up with bad actors demanding for more, or the next group of people, the next basic right to be sacrificed.

They are already testing the waters with arresting some judges and threatening members of Congress; looking at Jeffries answer on the latter, I assume they will feel invited to continuing with their coup.

Larry Hart said...

It is essential at this stage not to obey in advance and give up on civil protest and disobedience,

And for that reason, please don't continue to exile yourself.

David Brin said...

Re the Russian 'shadow" oil fleet:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BW2YUlHM1Hs

Has anyone explored the actual Rules of War in this regard? Under rules that go back centuries, it would seem that the Ukrainian Navy - using simply-supplied and adapted vessels - could physically interfere with all this, even seizing and selling vessels in the Atlantic, beyond reach of the RF Baltic Fleet. Legally, Ukraine might have to end the ambiguity and declare an actual state of war. A judgement call, sure. But in what way could anyone claim that Ukraine is NOT already at war with Iran? If privateers - either official Ukraine Navy or else with letters of marque - impinged on the tankers of RF allies like Iran and Gabon, it might - as a side effect - gain leverage on the nuclear enrichment negotiations. Has ANYONE discussed this recourse? (Note: Ukrainian ships could even pass NEAR shadow ships which then 'accidentally' have problems with their propellors.)

David Brin said...

Der Oger is welcome here. Even theough his earlier lash-out at me - like matthew's - was spasmodic nonsense, Symptomatic of a very common trait among leftists... attack your allies! Attack allies because they are within reach!
Yes, even allies who are doing far, far more in the fight than you are.

As for TACO, Oger ignores my REASON for refraining from using it. I don't give a crap about Trump's feelings and I have given him. many nicknames. "Two Scoops" would have really dug under his skin.

TACO is different. It taunts him into 'standing his ground' someday when 'chickening out' would be exactly the right call, for all of our sakes. NOTE that not a single responsible adult or politician on the liberal /Dem side has used it. Because they know this. Their aim is not to 'get under Trump's skin.'

Their aim and that of adults is to stoke what tiny embers of honor and courage might flicker under the skins of the Tllerson/Barr/Romney/Ryan/Barrett/Collins/Murkowski wing and provoke them to step up. To become Liz Cheneys, only en masse.

Yeah, yeah. Most of you will sneer "Never happen!" And I think you may be right... the blackmail goes that deep.

But the potential benefits are staggering and there are NO other potential saviors on any horizon.

A.F. Rey said...

Usually I say, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend (at least until my enemy is gone)." :)

But this is getting ridiculous...

Elon Musk on X: “Time to drop the really big bomb: Donald Trump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!”

https://politicalwire.com/2025/06/05/elon-musk-takes-his-feud-with-trump-up-a-notch/

The Richest Man in the World and the Leader of the Free World, both squabbling like rude, spoiled brats. It's what this world has come to... :(

David Brin said...

WHolly/Holy shit. Did ERM just say that? Jeepers total war. What did someone slip into his pharma?

Larry Hart said...

https://bsky.app/profile/rudepundit.bsky.social

A biology prof at Louisiana Tech had her NSF grant cancelled. The title of the study was "Effects of Leaf Diversity on Aquatic Insect Colonizer Diversity." She used "diversity" and that made it get flagged. That's the level of stupidity we're dealing with here.


Just sayin'

David Smelser said...

It seemed to me that Harris started slipping in the poles when:
1. They stopped using "Trump/Vance is weird" (i.e., they went back to being polite toward the enemy).
2. They started courting never trump republicans like Liz Cheney. The idea that a good quarter of Americans would rather slit their own throats than live in peace and prosperity with people they despise also applies to some on the left who don't want 'sane republicans' inside the democratic tent.

My gut says that there are more non-voters on the left than there are party switchers on the right. I'd really like to see what the election results would look like if a candidate went all in are get those non-voters on the left to show up.



matthew said...

The "non-voters" are suppressed voters. COVID allowed the dems to loosen the grip of the GOP's voter suppression tactics. When the GOP retook the House, undoing COVID-era election laws was their #1 priority. Shamefully, many centrist Democrats went along with the GOP.

This was where Harris lost the election.

matthew said...

I was pretty sure the POTUS / Car Salesman split was keyfabe, but events are moving beyond that now.

Trump in the Epstein files is old news, out for years. That is pure keyfabe fodder.

Threatening to pull government contracts and deport back to Africa? Crashing his stock?

This is a new development.

...And any Democrat that suggests trying to embrace the Car Salesman / Child Killer? Immediate lifetime ban from the party would not be an overreaction.

They are both scum. Enjoy the spectacle.

MartianEngr said...

Essentially we should fight back against this pustulant toad called Moldbug; uphold and strengthen democracy and electoral processes, as opposed to eliminating them.
Support and reinforce government institutions and agencies, rather than dismantling them and replacing them with private corporate rule.
Believe in the capacity of the public for self-governance, rejecting the view that the "masses are asses" and that rule should be by a select elite or oligarchy.
Value and promote science, democracy, and meritocracy as positive forces and equalizers, directly countering the Dark Enlightenment's aim to undermine and destroy them.
Finally, we should oppose authoritarianism, corporate rule, and feudal-like stratification, instead supporting principles of equality and broader distribution of power.
The "Roosevelt Renaissance," was characterized by significant government intervention, expansion of public programs, and a focus on strengthening democratic institutions and the middle class, presenting a stark contrast to the Dark Enlightenment's goals of dismantling government and creating a stratified, oligarchic society.
Who would be this "Gandalf to break this spell" is debatable, but there is an urgent need for a strong, positive force or figure to counter the influence of the Dark Enlightenment.
The opposition movement to the Dark Enlightenment will have to be one dedicated to preserving and strengthening democratic governance, public institutions, science, and meritocracy, while rejecting authoritarianism, corporate rule, and the stratification of society under an elite oligarchy.
Name the seed and find root to oppose this Idiocracy.

Larry Hart said...

Stonekettle's Threads feed is full of the Trump/Musk kerfuffle. Some real and some his own snark:

Musk: I'll explode SpaceX!

Trump: Oh yeah? I'll burn down Mar-a-Lago and do donuts on the greens at Trump Bedminster with my golf cart!

Musk: I'm bricking every Tesla (typing furiously on his phone) you didn't know I could do that, Bitch!

Trump: I just released the blockchain source code for TrumpCoin, it's all worthless, you fool!

Musk: I'm going to crash the stock market and send us into a recession and they'll blame you!

Trump: No, wait, I'M gong to crash the stock market and blame YOU!


https://www.threads.com/@stonekettle

locumranch said...

As much as I'd enjoy playing the 'He who smelt it dealt it' game with AFR, he's missing the whole point about hypocrisy.

The progressive left has experienced 50+ years of phenomenal political success because it obeyed the rules & held on to the moral high ground, even as it shamed the conservative right into "living up to its own book of rules". This was also known as Alinsky's Rule number 4.

What happened next was as ill-advised as it was boringly predictable:

Flush with near total victory, an ascendent & increasingly arrogant progressive left threw out the rulebook -- and thereby forfeited the moral high ground -- in a vainglorious attempt to demonstrate its new authority, and that's the entire rationale behind all this reality-denying gender nonsense.

Out loud & proud, this is the true meaning of all the passionate declarations made by the likes of Celt, Matthew & Der_Oger:

There are NO RULES except those of our own making & choosing..

There are no rules -- this is the new progressive reality -- and Trump's election confirms it.

Now, reap the whirlwind.


Best

David Brin said...

MartianEngr I will follow your banner! Tho it is similar to what I wave.

What's missing from so many on our side is any sense of the historical context: that Periclean societies are vastly more creative and happy and prosperous and free... and incredibly rare. So much so that I rank 'Nearly Universal Feudalism" in my top five Fermi Paradox hypotheses.

I disagree re Musk's "Epstewin!" shouts. Foxites depend upon 'the next thing' distraction to evade seeing facts... which is why NAILING DOWN a very specific thing is prime tactics and the reason to use wager demands.

Musk has made Epstein the absolute center. And I'll bet Gislaine M is shivering in fear, right now, even as she tries extorting for a pardon.

As for matthew's sudden veer back into some degree of contributory cogency? Well, I have a thick skin, esp after a decade of locumranch and similar negative-sum flat-landers in other venues. And hence I can shrug off the idiotic swill m previously spewed. Bipolar swings merit tolerance. I have my own.

Larry Hart said...

David Smelser:

1. They stopped using "Trump/Vance is weird" (i.e., they went back to being polite toward the enemy).


I'm not remembering exactly, but wasn't that around when the fake assassination attempt took place where Trump's miraculously-healing ear was supposedly shot off by an AR-15?

I think they decided that being mean to him after that sympathy-generating event was a losing strategy.


2. They started courting never trump republicans like Liz Cheney.


I've got no problem welcoming apostate former-Republicans into the big tent. But it has to be on our terms. "We're allies against authoritarian fascism. If that gets you to vote for us, welcome aboard. But we're not changing our platform to support tax cuts and deregulation just to win you over."

scidata said...

If this was FOUNDATION, then the players could be:
ERM as Magnifico
DJT as Lord Dorwin
JDV as Wienis
Liz Cheney as Bel Riose
OGH as Hari Seldon
scidata as Ebling Mis

David Brin said...

Followup: " I'll bet Gislaine M is shivering in fear, right now, even as she tries extorting for a pardon."

The fact that she is alive at all suggests she did a far better job than Epstein at caching credible boxes of kompromat to be released upun death.

David Brin said...

scidata heh.

As for this: "where Trump's miraculously-healing ear was supposedly shot off by an AR-15?"

I have not seen anywhere even a single person raise the obvious hypothesis. WATCH the video of the 'near miss.' DT slaps his head (away from the cameras) at the sound of a gunshot. Which could easily have re-opened a glued shut cut in his ear. In which case the shooter could have aimed aywhere even roughly in that direction. And expecting a 'hero cop' to gun him down, as agreed in advance.

Likely? Well, not very in event/probability terms. But PHYSICALLY vastly more likely than that miracle grazing shot.

Unknown said...

As ex-military, I have my own issues with the current maladministration, and a recent decision to rename many ships on an anti-'DEI' crusade is one of them. Apparently the 'Harriet Tubman' is not a 'warfighting' enough name.
In what universe would you not want Harriet Tubman fighting on your side?

Pappenheimer

P.S. The answer is that in some people's ideal universe there are no black people or women fighting at all, or perhaps just no black people.

P.P.S. "Who would be this Gandalf to break this spell?" Don't wait on redeemers. You only need a critical mass of citizens, and I do mean critical. Who overthrew Ceaușescu? Protestors and the police and soldiers who stopped opposing them.

Unknown said...

Sorry, not buying it being a set up. First, live rounds went downrange, enough to shatter plastic and kill a man in the audience. Even if you were sure that your shooter was crazy enough to fire at a would-be president and deliberately miss, then agree to be shot himself (there was no safe line of retreat from that firing point), his final rounds were hasty and his heartbeat would have been racing. You'd be counting on Murphy not to stop a bullet with rumpT's head by accident, and remember - you're not choosing an expert marksman who will coolly avoid shooting the president while hitting 3 audience members, you've got someone with no military training in a very high stress situation. I'm surprised he didn't manage to shoot himself. A glance at his wiki suggests he was rejected from his high school's rife club for being too dangerous. That doesn't mean too deadly, it means he wasn't displaying good fire control or gun safety.

Pappenheimer

David Brin said...

A terrific smackdown of shills trying to undermine science by pretending to be 'scientists' while raging that 'all the scientists are corrupt!' Sean Carroll does a great job here! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUr4Tb8uy-Q

David Brin said...

Pappenheimer all good points. But not decisive. (a) Who says DT knew the bullets were real? He's not the top plotter. (b) All you need is a shooter who's suicidal and good enough to hit a big audience. But sure, I give my wild-ass theory low odds...

...except that it remains PHYSICALLY far more plausible than that feather-light graze.

PS you think he'd be fist pumping so dramatically if he actually thought the bullets were real?

Unknown said...

I don't think your theory and my objections are worth many more words, but to answer a direct question:

"you think he'd be fist pumping so dramatically if he actually thought the bullets were real?"

Have you ever nearly died? Adrenaline floods your body and you are basically crazy until you calm down, and it is exhilarating to be alive. Even an intense saber match can trigger it, which is why I don't fight saber any more.
(must insert here that I have never been in actual combat; SCA sure doesn't count. I was just way too tired at 5 AM one winter morn and came within a step of walking in front of a city bus. I stopped being sleepy immediately and had the jitters for many minutes.)
Our instincts betray us. We'll freeze when a cat yowls but nothing in our hindbrain screams 'BUS!"

Pappenheimer

P.S. may have to buy more popcorn for this weekend's rumpT/Skum slapfight, if the FSM permits its continuance in full schadenfreudalistic glory

Paradoctor said...

We know that Trump is in the Epstein files. What do you call a secret that is no secret?

Airing an open secret does have this effect: it gives others an excuse to talk about the open secret.

reason said...

They ARE rude spoiled brats. We already knew that.

reason said...

Yep!

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

But sure, I give my wild-ass theory low odds...

...except that it remains PHYSICALLY far more plausible than that feather-light graze.


I don't think anyone actually believes that DJT was injured by an AR-15 bullet in that attack. There's not even a scar.

Your theory isn't entirely implausible, but I think Occam's Razor points to a simpler one. That was someone else's blood splattered onto his ear.


PS you think he'd be fist pumping so dramatically if he actually thought the bullets were real?


DJT's very essence is that he instinctively grasps how whatever he's saying or doing plays to the audience.

Do you remember the movie Pan's Labyrinth ? Toward the end, the fascist general (or whatever his rank was) is about to torture a revolutionary servant woman, but she has secreted a knife on her person and slices him across the face. Then she escapes, leaving him with a grotesque half-smile rip from his mouth up half his cheek. It looks kinda like the Joker.

Anyway, what does he do immediately, in lieu of pursuit or calls for medical attention? He painfully sews up the wound himself. Because even in the heat of that moment, he understands that should any of his own men see him in that state, his authority would be over.

Von Schitzenpantz would understand.

Larry Hart said...

Pappenheimer:

Apparently the 'Harriet Tubman' is not a 'warfighting' enough name.
In what universe would you not want Harriet Tubman fighting on your side?


The constant riff on "warfighters"--a term I don't remember ever hearing before--means that Hegseth was born in the wrong century and the wrong country. His idea of what the US Army should be would have fit in well in the Nazi army.


The answer is that in some people's ideal universe there are no black people or women fighting at all, or perhaps just no black people.


It's more about what the military is expected to fight for. In Hegseth's "warfighter" milieu, they're in business to kill foreigners and other undesirables. Certainly not to oppose black slavery.

Larry Hart said...

Pappenheimer:

We know that Trump is in the Epstein files. What do you call a secret that is no secret?


It certainly evokes the bit of dialogue from the Saga comic series:

Marko: "I need a secret to make the spell work. Something you've never told anyone."

Alana: "I'm not as tall as I say I am."

Marko: "Do I really need to explain what a 'secret' is?"


Airing an open secret does have this effect: it gives others an excuse to talk about the open secret.


It does add some weight when someone who has presumably actually seen the Epstein files says it out loud and into the record. It takes the notion from mere speculation to something more concrete.

The same would be true if we actually saw the pee-pee tapes, even though we can all safely bet that they exist.

Celt said...

Ukraine didn't just alter the war, it changed warfare itself.

3300 bc - Bronze age weapons replace weapons made of stone.

1274 bc - Battle of Kadesh. First known use of war chariots by Egyptians and Hittites. Mobile forces added to the battlefield.

1177 bc - Bronze Age Collapse. The Sea Peoples armed with iron weapons destroy bronze age civilization across the Middle East.

1012 bc - David slays Goliath showing that cheap soldiers armed with missile weapons can defeat heavily armored warriors.

324 - Battle of Adrianople. Gothic cavalry equipped with stirrups that given a firmer mount to the rider destroy the once invincible Roman legions, leading to a 1,000 years of warfare dominated by cavalry instead of infantry.

1346 - Battle of Crecy. English longbowmen decimate French knights ending the period of cavalry domination.

1453 - Fall of Constantinople. The Ottomans finish off the Byzantine Empire ushering in an age of gunpowder artillery weapons that can destroy any Medieval fortification.

1503 - Battle of Cerignola. First use of massed handguns on the battlefield by the Spanish. Handguns dominate warfare with formations like the Spanish Tercio and Turkish Janissaries winning battles across Europe and Asia. These weapons would evolve from primitive matchlocks, to flintlock muskets used in the Napoleonic wars and American revolution.

1860 - Battle of Bull Run. American Civil War sees the first mass use of rifles with their greater range and accuracy replacing muskets and making previous mass infantry formations obsolete.

1914 - First Battle of Ypres (WW1). The machine gun dominates trench warfare making attack nearly suicidal, leading to prolonged stalemate as defense controls the battlefield.

1939 - Polish campaign (WW2). The tank restores the primacy of the offense, allowing strategic mobility and blitzkrieg.

1990 - Desert Storm - the computer chip allows first mass use of "smart weapons" allowing the Americans and their allies to dismantle the Iraqi army (what was the 4th largest army in the world) in a matter of days.

2025 - Operation Spiderweb. Brilliant use of remote control drones by Ukraine decimated the Russian air force with $100 drones destroying $1 million dollar planes, as well as destroying Russian armored formation on the battlefield. Warfare has returned to a type of trench warfare with drones slaughtering attackers like machine guns did in WW1.

Bronze, chariots, iron, sling, stirrup, longbow, artillery, handguns, rifles, machine guns, smart weapons, drones - each new technological advance alters the nature of warfare.

What will eventually negate drones like the tank did to the machine gun?

Maybe a battlefield laser capable of shooting them down like flies at the speed of light.

Until then, Ukraine's armed force have earned themselves a place in the halls of history.

Larry Hart said...

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2025/Items/Jun06-1.html

...
For the Democrats, by contrast, things are a little easier. They can sit back and enjoy the show, of course. Beyond that, while there are some folks out there suggesting the Democrats should reach out to the South African and try to bring him (back) into the tent (we wrote about two of them on Monday), it really doesn't make much sense. Yesterday, a quarter of writers for The Bulwark wrote a piece headlined "Dear Dems, Don't Welcome Elon Back," in which they point out that he's very unpopular, he's not at all aligned with the blue team on policy, and, oh yeah, he's a fascist and a racist. To that, we would add a few things: (1) He's too mercurial a basket to put your eggs in, (2) He's useless when it comes to verbal/moral persuasion, and as Wisconsin showed, his money doesn't actually help all that much; (3) the Democrats are trying to differentiate themselves from the Republicans right now, and hugging Musk close is NOT the way to do that; (4) the Democrats are going to get most of the benefit of his temper tantrums whether he's inside our outside their tent; and (5) oh yeah, he's a fascist and a racist.

...

Larry Hart said...


https://people.com/trump-baffles-german-chancellor-after-describing-d-day-as-not-a-great-day-11749273

“This is D-Day anniversary when the Americans once ended the war in Europe,” he continued, referencing the invasion of Normandy in 1944, which helped usher in the Allies' victory months later. “And I think this is in your hands, specifically, in ours.”

“That was not a pleasant day for you?” interrupted Trump, 78, before turning to the cameras and adding, “This was not a great day.”

“Well, in the long run, Mr. President, this was the liberation of my country from Nazi dictatorship,” Merz responded of D-Day.


Evocative of the line from the first Captain America movie in which German expatriate Dr. Erskine says, "People often forget that the first country the Nazis conquered was their own."

scidata said...

Women are just too hysterical to be CEO or President.
R-i-i-i-i-i-ght.

David Brin said...

scidata "Women are just too hysterical to be CEO or President.
R-i-i-i-i-i-ght."

While there are some right wing dizzies who say such... mostly this is cried out by our own left wing as a strawman that almost no one believes. Jeepers man, MAGA land overflows with women macho-wannabes who are praised gushingly on Fox. Agaiun and again, this is NOT the battle-front and it is not why Kamala lost.

If you look at Trump's ear, there does seem to be a noticeable scar. My point is that it might... maybe... have been planned.

Celt that is a good list of tech breakthroughs in warfare. Did you write it?

In fact, it happened at least THREE times in the Ukraine war.

2022. - airlifting (RF) troops behind enemy (AFU) lines with helicopters and airplanes rendered impossible & moot during the battle of Kyiv

2023 - Tanks relegated to support roles except when expertly and surgically applied, and otherwise just 'meat BBQ targets.'

2025 - Drone attacks that rise from tactical or nuisance to major strategic effects.

Of course I would add 5th column disinformation war that allowed an enemy (revived USSR) to conquer our capital. And the current mostly invisible AI wars.

Coming soon. REVIVAL of both helicopters & tanks, I reckon.

Der Oger said...

I watched the whole conference. What both brought together was their mutual dislike of Angela Merkel. And some flattery.
Most of the time, though, it was about Trump rambling against Biden and autopens.

Hellerstein said...

Hart:
You quote me, Hellerstein/Paradoctor, not Pappenheimer. But I admit that I am flattered by your confusing us.

Der Oger said...

I'd add 1945 - Hiroshima, and the years afterward that made some wars less likely due to the threat of mutual annihilation.

As for drones: I think we will see an arms race between "strike" and "interception" types of drones, and maybe a transition from FPV to AI piloted drones. Also, evolution of sensor systems and ECM.

I also expect a major political assassination or terror attack attempt by a drone in the next years.

Hellerstein said...

So maybe we should replace the word 'diversity' with 'variation' in biology papers - and political discourse.

Hellerstein said...

Wasn't there a Philip K Dick novel with roughly that premise?

Hellerstein said...

Maybe the shooter was given a false promise that he'll survive. His incompetence at fire control was a positive to his handlers.

Hellerstein said...

Drone countermeasure: EMP and/or jamming.

Hellerstein said...

That is the difference between loyalty to justice and loyalty to the king.

Hellerstein said...

Don't welcome Musk back, but do tell him, "Let's you and him fight." Give him some helpful pointers on how to mess Trump up.

Celt said...

"Coming soon. REVIVAL of both helicopters & tanks, I reckon.

I disagree, for the same reasons you don't see horse cavalry charges anymore.

Something new has to negate drones the same way that tanks negated machine guns.

That something is probably a battlefield laser or EM jamming system.

Celt said...

Good point Oger but I was focusing on the battlefield.

Celt said...

"Did you write it?"

I'm just an amateur military historian.

There seems to be three recurring cycles on the battlefield:

infantry v. mounted units,
mobility and attack v. fortifications and defense,
small armies of professional soldiers v. mass armies of citizen soldiers.

Currently we are in an infantry/defense/professional cycle.

David Brin said...

Actually we are in a hybrid where both RF and AFU are highly mobilized needing vast numbers of citizen soldiers across a very long front. Though they are used very differently, with the AFU trying to professionalize its citizen soldiers by every means and RF hurling theirs into amateur 'probing attacks' of a dozen or fewer at a time, hoping a few survive to grab a weak part of the line.

Larry Hart said...

Celt:

"Coming soon. REVIVAL of both helicopters & tanks, I reckon.

I disagree, for the same reasons you don't see horse cavalry charges anymore.


Maybe, but sometimes the unexpected wins with surprise. Like Baron Harkonnen reviving artillery, which no one expected in the age of shields.

locumranch said...

The Trump/Musk kerfuffle; the Epstein Scandal implicating 'only Trump'; a faked Trump assassination attempt; and a stalemated UKR conflict:

Any doofus who actually believes this tripe only proves that PT Barnum was largely correct & Orwell was something of an optimist.

(1) The Cheney Family was BAD yesterday & GOOD today, while Elon Musk was GOOD days ago, BAD yesterday and GOOD again today, all according to the legacy media.

(2) Epstein was a Sex Trafficker (who trafficked to 'no one' so no list) per the Biden Administration & the legacy media, but now there may be a 'no one' on the list with Trump the only 'no one' listed.

(3) An ear injury (plus one dead) in an obvious assassination attempt against Trump per the Biden DOJ & the legacy media, but now the same media may have 'doubts' as to their own veracity.

(4) Ukraine & Russia are supposedly evenly matched, while the legacy media repeats over & over that 'modern technology has made warfare unwinnable' which has yet to be seen.


So, get this & get it good:

The Legacy Media's primary function is to 'manufacture consent' on & around an official narrative in order to minimize social unrest, maximize social stability & pacify the general public. Aka 'Social Pacification Science', this discipline hybridizes economic indicators with the Social Progress Index.

It's therefore safe to assume that most media reports are either partially or entirely FALSE with the above ulterior motive.


Best
_______

Social pacification, within a scientific framework, refers to the process of maintaining or establishing social order, often through a combination of military, political, and economic means, especially when dealing with insurgency or unrest. It can be understood as a form of "social warfare carried out through the ideology of peace," aimed at suppressing resistance to state power and economic order.

Social Pacification influences most aspects of domestic/international politics, economics, education & science. It is self-evident in everything from Conflict Resolution to the BLM to feminism. It features prominently in John Brunner's works, especially in his 'Squares of the City' (as Brazil was an early adopter).

David Brin said...

Um, as Nomad would say... NON-SEQUITUR, NON-SEQUITUR. YOUR REFERENCES ARE UNCOORDINATED!

In other words, your PREMISES - poor locum - are hallucinatory and hence your conclusions too.

In particular... MOST Cheneys almost all bad, but one is being heroic because she has limits, so? And Epstein is totally toxic and should be if you flew his plane more than once. (Once might have been clueless.) The difference is that Dems ease out their scandal twerps while GOPpers double down...and infinity-down... on their pervs. And yes, Trump's MANY sojourns with Eps mean he was totally into it.

And NO ONE shares my ear-injury theory... which even I don't believe.

Above all... Zelensky is great... but he never says the fundamental:

"If you win, after poisoning our rivers and land, spreading 10 million land mines, abducting children and enslaving captured populations and bombarding our cities - our homes and schools - what do you expect from us, other than many generations of volcanic hatred? If you win, your occupying troops will die in ambushes, bombings, and in their bunks. Drones will fly into all parts of Russia from barns and basements and culverts. Freedom-loving Russians will join us, until your own soldiers march on the Kremlin.

"And so, again, I ask: what is it that you aim to achieve? Because win-or-lose, all you will taste is ashes."

scidata said...

Re: all you will taste is ashes
(I say something similar to American friends who say Canada could be annexed in two days, so mind your place)
Couldn't find that quote or similar's origin. Daniel Webster? Moses?

Larry Hart said...

I say something similar to American friends who say Canada could be annexed in two days

If the US invaded Canada, the American friends I'm aware of would be on your side.

David Brin said...

Remember the scene in BRAVEHEART when King Edward "Sends in the Irish!" and his Irish troops charge at the Scots, then stop and shake hands. US troops would do the same.

now onward

onward

onward

Dirtnapninja said...

This is not true at all.

The issue with the ww2 mechanised warfare paradigm you are stuck on in Ukraine is 1) mines and 2) surveillance.

Anytime you assemble more than a platoon in close proximity, its going to be spotted by drones or satellites and someone is going to lob a missile or artillery at it.

The Ukrainians were given a very sophisticated battlefield AI system that could assemble all the recon data from drones, satellites and aircraft, process it and issue instant and real time fire missions to the closest available indirect fire platform. This is why you heard tales about Russians doing an awards ceremony being struck by a rocket. They were spotted, the AI system created a fire mission, sent that mission to the nearest platform and BOOM. (This system gave the Russians absolute fits, until they adapted and then created one of their own.)

This is why you see these small attacks. A section of troops supported a few vehicles..anything more will be spotted, prioritised and struck. It means that mass mechanised assaults are simply not viable. Instead of a sledgehammer, its a steady drumbeat of small attacks, that go in and then withdraw, followed up by another one, then another one until the position is taken.

The Ukrainians ALSO use this technique.

In fact, back during the counteroffensive, they had an incredibly cynical tactic that exploited the Russian operational doctrine of avoiding close quarters combat. They would send in their elite forces to take a trench using the above tactic. The Russians, following doctrine would withdraw. The Ukrainians would garrison the Trench with low grade conscripts..because they knew the Russians would then follow doctrine by shelling the trench and counterattacking. The conscripts would be killed, or withdraw, but the shelling would make the trench unusable, allowing the Ukrainians to "claim" it

Then there is the mine problem. Demining vehicles just become targets for drones and indirect munitions. Mines can also be dropped in front of an advancing army via RADSCAM. So mines have to be taken out the old fashioned way, which is very costly and time consuming. This also makes vast mechanised assaults more difficult. This BTW is one of the reasons both sides have taken to using motorbikes and very light vehicles..a bike can run over an antitank mine w/o triggering it.