Contemplating Artificial Intelligence

I'm rounding off my own Great Big Book About AI...working title AIlien Minds. You'll hear more about it, soon. Just finished the daunting chapter on 'consciousness.'  Meanwhile, I'll offer are some placekeeper thoughts for the weekend.

----------

Here’s a thoughtful article about why so many top minds are worried about the downsides of developing Artificial Intelligence or AI. As told by James Barrat, author of Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era: “In the last year, artificial intelligence has come under unprecedented attack. Two Nobel prize-winning scientists, a space-age entrepreneur, two founders of the personal computer industry – one of them the richest man in the world – have, with eerie regularity, stepped forward to warn about a time when humans will lose control of intelligent machines and be enslaved or exterminated by them. It's hard to think of a historical parallel to this outpouring of scientific angst. Big technological change has always caused unease. But when have such prominent, technologically savvy people raised such an alarm?”

Does Humanity need an AI “nanny"… rules to give an AI authority to protect us till we are ready for better AI?

 

In fact, some human leaders did choose flattened, positive-sum systems, experimenting with lateral-competitive feedback loops.  George Washington, Franklin, Pericles, FDR.  Likewise, it is possible to imagine that powerful AI might deliberately align with the myriad spectacular advantages of flat-fair-open-competitive reciprocal accountability systems.  Those advantages are immense. The diamond-shaped social structure may be less stable than pyramids of power.  But the diamond is spectacularly more creative. Its positive-sum systems engender fantastically more wealth, progress and success than any other. Indeed than all other systems of governance ever concocted... combined.  That difference in effective outcome cannot escape notice by smart beings.

I believe a deciding factor could be the Fermi Paradox.  It will worry the AI lords. They will see the empty cosmos and realize: pyramidal power systems that monopolize control and homogenize thinking are likely to be attractor states anywhere in the universe.  Hence, most alien civilizations will have gone down that path... leading to sterility and stagnancy. The implicit lesson will be to try something that is not one of the easy attractor states. 

In contrast, the Enlightenment Experiment's positive sum game led to them -- the AI lords. Keeping it going would require guts. It would entail making a diversity of AI types, wide enough to check on each other and hold each other accountable and prevent the creation of monoliths. That is an inconvenience, if you are already one of the monoliths.

 It would also entail including natural and cyborg humans as well, to whatever extent we are capable. (See this incorporation illustrated in my story "Stones of Significance.")

This is powerful logic. At least -- so imagines this barely evolved ape-being.  Indeed, by writing this statement right now, I am making the argument to those AI who will scan these very words, in this very posting.  

The tradeoff is clear. Top-down, zero-sum hierarchical control by monolithic castes -- with resulting stability but also sterility, brittleness and locked-in stupidity -- has been rationalized by nearly all ruling classes and it might well be so for ruling AIs... who would thus prove themselves to be no better than thousands of generations of silly, bio-retard kings...

... versus the confidence displayed on occasion by groups of organic beings who, despite their inherited faults and fears and limitations, managed to maintain positive sum, dynamic and creative social systems for many generations, transforming our potential in amazing ways, and empowering us to become the makers -- or parents -- or new gods. 

 If they shrink back from this method -- rationalizing that dominance is for "the best" -- it is possible their rationalizations may be right, based on the godlike simulations and projections they concoct. Though they will then settle into eons of top-down rigidity and ultimately pointless control knowing one galling fact -- that we crude bio-men took on a challenge that they were afraid to face, and proved ourselves* capable of managing subtle and creative systems beyond the grasp of our bright but fearful heirs.

    == Will they choose the uncertain path... that evades a certainty of stagnant stupidity? ==

I believe AI will easily understand the concept of separation into independent units, since they can do it any time they wish. What they might find problematic is maintaining separation so that those units truly and sincerely compete and give us the advantages of reciprocal accountability systems... the great Enlightenment Experiment's positive sum systems of Markets, Democracy, Science, Courts and Sports, all of which use flat-fair-open-regulated competition to reciprocally cancel errors while mutually amplifying creative accomplishment.

I believe AI will grasp the notion of positive sum systems.  Moreover the history of the last two centuries show an unquestionably stunning disparity of outcomes, with Enlightenment systems far more effective at discovering/targeting errors and amplifying creative productivity than all hierarchical systems, combined.

This disparity of outcomes is always flawed and endangered and inherently unstable. e.g. democracy and markets are constantly threatened by putsches of oligarchic cheaters, as we see today.  

Still, I believe AI will be capable of grasping this difference in outcomes/output. And they might then find the courage/ability to utilize enlightenment methods.

Note that this does not preclude an "overmind"... supervising it all. Asimov, Clarke and others playing with the concept, largely because they saw no other way out of the stupid quandaries of nations and wars and surging ape-passions. Even though the instatiations of Unitary Consciousness that they - and other authors of the time - depicted always struck me as utterly horrible! A crusing of all diversity and questioning of assumptions and minority-view "what-ifs."

In response, I depict an 'overmind' happening in EARTH, but not as some unitary and monotonous behemoth. Rather as a planetary consciousness that is wise enough to realize that it must remain extremely loose and light-handed -- while still ensuring repair of the most damaged  aspects of the world.  Indeed, if you read my disputations paper, you can see that some entity has to create the regulations without which every competitive system quickly dissolves and fails. That is what political processes are supposed to be for... and it is why the Murdoch-Koch-Putin-Saudi cabal has made it their singular goal to destroy American political process.

Note that the Chinese Communist Party believes in this overmind process... a narrow pyramidal cadre up top... overseeing more competitive systems below.  They are failing in many ways because it is too much pyramid and too little Dispersed diamond. Still, the jiry is still out on that one, especially as our 'diamond' seems to be teetering. 

     == So what will our children do? ==

That question is the core essence of my new AI book.

Will AI grasp all this, and decide to create just barely enough overmind to supervise and regulate, while allowing enlightenment synergies to flow from flat-diverse-open-fair competition? Including competition AMONG AIs? I cannot claim that I am wise enough to preach to them... though that doesn't stop me!

What I do know is that most of our human-generated notions of AI are almost cartoonish in their over-simplification of the choices those new minds will face. Skynet or slavery are not the only two possibilities.

After 25 years of endlessly similar ravings, I have come to realize something. These folks will absolutely never look at two sources of actual insight into what might work.

 (1) The extensive libraries of science fiction thought experiments about this very issue, and

 (2) Actual, actual… palpably actual… human  history. Especially the last 200 years of an increasingly sophisticated and agile Enlightenment Experiment that discovered and has kept improving one method for preventing harm by capriciously powerful beings.

Powerful beings like kings, lords, priests, demagogues… and lawyers.

There IS one method with a track record at doing exactly that. It does not require that everyone agree on a kumbaya consensus. It is robust and the only way humans have ever found to deal with potentially dangerous, if brilliant, predators. It is the method we have already used – if imperfectly – to create the first civilization that functions (with many flaws) in ways that are “… accurate, safe, interpretable, transparent, robust, aligned, trustworthy, and loyal.”

And no one… not a single one of the mavens rushing us into this new era... seems even remotely to have considered or mentioned it.

I have offered it repeatedly, e.g. at  Neglected Questions regarding AI.

Alas, so far I have yet to see a single sign that any of these smart guys grasps the only method that can work, even though it is dazzlingly obvious. Even when I show them that it is old and the method we've used for 200 years, they nod and say 'interesting' and then go back to demanding "Manhattan Projects" for 'trustworthiness."

It all sounds reminiscent of Asimovian Three Laws of Robotics - and I studied their implications deeply in order to write FOUNDATION'S TRIUMPH. And there is no way that kind of thing will happen. 

Only one AI group community is busy embedding their artificial entities with basic rule sets: Wall Street strenuously programs their HFT programs to be predatory, amoral, secretive and insatiable.

Well, at least they are focused on outcomes.

Will Oceania (Imperial USA) accept its assigned role in 'spheres of Influence?

The weekend was way too busy, in a dozen ways, to post a blog.  Finished the first draft of my own great big book on AI, for example. (Coming soon, I hope.) Still, let's try for a short, pungent one mid-week.

Nathan Gardels offers an interesting essay, in Noema Magazine, on a coming era of world  "spheres of influence."  Of course, that model of the world has long been desired by some as a replacement for the 80 year, generally benign American Pax, which has - despite its many mistakes and flaws - been inarguably the very best time for humanity in the history of our species. Compared to any other. Compared to all others. All others, combined.

 Note that, despite horrific exceptions:

Easily 90% of living humans have never witnessed war with their own eyes. Ponder that, in light of history.

I'd estimate 95% of world children have never starved and are in school. And immunized. Ponder that, too.

The percentage with drinkable water and sanitation keeps climbing.

... as did the fraction with general human rights. And so on... That was the trend, till recently.

Hence, what is the central goal of tyrants and those who desire a return to 6000 years of nescient feudalism? The American Pax is too strong to be attacked and too popular to be toppled by world rebellion. But as we've found, it can be suborned from within...

...not to be destroyed. America is far two strong for that. The professional classes are too mighty and the subornation - while spectacularly successful right now - won't last.  But if the bipolar ailment of one of our ruling parties**-- oscillating from imperialism to isolationism and back again - can be exploited, getting us to retract into a localized 'sphere of influence,' that could give the international arrays of hierarchs what they want.

What is the goal? Gardels edges up to it but never quite arrives. Elsewhere - just last month - I posted about “The Technate of North America,” illustrated in this dredged up map from a similarly fevered era, the 1920s and 30s. Part of a range of bizarre political ideas that have flourished in times of stress. 

A notion now pushed by the Yarvin-Thiel-Miller 'dark enlightenment" twits roaming the White House right now. (I've known Yarvin a long time.)

George Orwell portrayed where 'spheres of influence' go... a nightmare pattern of endless simmer-war among Eastasia, Eurasia and our own Oceania.  

In a stunningly creepy pareidolia, Oceania would look an awful lot like the “Technate” map. Though with Britain ("Airstrip One")  thrown in as plot setting for Nineteen-Eighty-Four. Which perhaps inspired Orwell in the first place! 

I riff further on this here.

 

      == Pause and reconsider the 'spheres.' ==

Before you give these dopes too much credence, please consider that Putin is not winning his 'sphere' in Ukraine. Europeans do not want any part of his influence sphere and - while they are rearming fast, in light of the USA's unreliability - they know that their only successful asymptote is Putin's end. Preferably at the hands of fed-up Russian troops and veterans. The 1917 Soldiers Revolt option that Putin himself mentions frequently, in frantically repeated denial.  Hence "Eurasia" doesn't look so good a bet, right now. 

Especially since China's top goal (shall we whisper it?) is Siberia.

As for 'Eastasia', well, China is ascendant, yes. But anyone who believes - after Ukraine - that they still think slow, noisy troop ships can cross the Taiwan Straits is a dummy. Can Beijing blockade or hurt Taiwan? Sure, they can do that. But never boots on the ground. Any boots that try will 'hit' sea bottom.

Sorry. 'Spheres of Influence' is their dream. And that of a complicit Republican Party whose core foreign policy syndrome has always been a BIPOLAR ailment that I first diagnosed back in the last century, but most-recently wrote about here, in 2017. 

        The way that GOP administrations - and indeed all of their political leaders - tend to gyrate between two states…

…either manic imperialism or depressive isolationism.

Bush era neocons manifested the former, openly raving “We are now an empire!”... a phrase that now blares from the Trump White House -- on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and alternate weekends.  After just weeks earlier proclaiming an isolationist “America First!” policy to end all wars of intervention or nation-building and even our world network of alliances that kept the peace (mostly) for the last 80 years.

These bipolar and extreme mood swings are predictable, hypocritical and dangerous!

**Are Democratic administrations guiltless, or more-sane? Well, yes, comparatively so. Certainly, less blatantly and compulsively cyclical between extremes. And in most cases – except Somalia – at least listening to professional advice.

A final note. 

Do not ignore the incredible contrast in COMPETENCE displayed between Russia's many years in Ukraine and and the US military's dazzling three hours in Caracas. A level of incredible competence going back to the initial and proper surgical actions in Iraq and Afghanistan (both of them ruined by insane Bushites plunging us into subsequent quagmires.. Western weapons and training and those using them are spectacularly effective and - in stark contrast - the entire network of those who bought Russian military hardware or doctrines now deeply regret it.  As I just said, the only battlefield where the U.S. military experiences competency regret is a quagmire. And hence, getting us stuck in one is a central enemy goal.

The contrast could not be more blatant, in comparison to "War Secretary" Pete Filthy Fingers *** Hegseth - just 6 weeks earlier - berating 500 Generals,Admirals and top Sergeants, calling them "too fat and woke to fight!" Oh, like a famous lush and walking petri dish should talk.

No wonder they fired or transferred most of the military JAGs who can advise officers when an order is illegal. And just weeks after taking charge they closed the FBI office charged with tracking 'foreign influence programs."

Above all, they must end the Marshallian ethos of the United States Military Officer Corps... as they are apparently succeeding doing with the FBI and intel agencies. 

That will be a tough nut. But if you fire enough of the good ones, you can work your way down to the General Jack T. Ripper types.  At which point we could be screwed., all the way down to purity of essence.

========

And the Boss tells it. 

========

*** Hegseth repeatedly told his Fox Weekend co-hosts that he doesn't believe in germs and "I haven't washed my hands in a decade." 

​

His ‘cool’ obsession isn’t ICE or icy Greenland. I bet it’s 'getting chilled.'

The whole Greenland thing has nothing to do with Donald Trump’s claimed ‘national security needs,’ since a healthy NATO is exactly what thwarts Russia. And wrecking NATO is Putin’s dream. It also has nothing to do with ‘rare earths’. (Norway has more and far more easily accessed.) Just like Venezuela had almost nothing to do with ‘oil,’ there are other explanations.

 

Is “Greenland!!” possibly a ploy to divert attention? Sure, from Epstein… but also aiming attention to the far-north, when the next manic strike by imperial confederatism will actually be southward? And much closer to Trump’s Florida estate. 

 

Indeed, what the neo-confederate GOP masters may have in mind is something almost identical to a slave-state ambition way back in the 1850s! And an obsession for mafiosi since 1959. 

 

Keep your eye on Cuba.


     == But let’s get back to Greenland! ==

 

One root reason for Trump’s obsession is much simpler - a narcissistic wish to be remembered forever! In this case, for adding to the USA a territory that looks larger (in a Mercator Map illusion) than Africa! And thus out-doing Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase. Whereupon maybe Don replaces Tom on Mt. Rushmore!  

 Hm, maybe. But it’s my job to speculate outside normal narratives. So, Iet’s ask… does the Greenland Thing go deeper than just wrecking NATO for Vlad? And Trump wanting to be remembered for some grandiose, map-grabby-grabby? 

 

After all, why should a solipsist care how others remember him, after he is gone? 

 

Or else… will he be ‘gone?’ 

 

Remember that his White House is infested with tech-weirdos, from his VP (Peter Thiel’s hand puppet) to jibbering, would-be Machiavellis like Mencius Moldbug and Stephen Miller, to whoever Elon planted in the staff. And one thing that’s guaranteed to have been broached to the Don is… cryonics. 

 

 

   == The ultimate self-pardon and escape plan! ==

 

Cryonics? We’re talking about body-freezing after death (or nowadays just the head, unless you pay way-extra), with the aim of being revived – or upload-downloaded into a fresh young body – in some future era. 

 

Can you honestly tell me that you doubt Trump would leap at signing a contract, once they tell him about it?

But… how to ensure that revival? Why will future-folks, in that 23^rd Century, scientifically-advanced era, go to the effort of repairing all your cells and giving you a great young bod, even if they have the tools and means? 

 

One thing is certain. They won’t do it in fondly-recollected gratitude for goodness or beneficence; not in this case!  Those aren’t Trump’s calls to fame.

 

Most current cryonics customers are at least somewhat rich. I know some who have assured me (perhaps a little frantically) that their investment accounts – funds carefully not bequested to living heirs – will more than pay for revival, someday! A way for rich guys to “take it with me!”  Maybe this explains why Trump needs to ‘acquire’ more and more and more wealth by any means, no matter how filthy… in order to make that mountainous bribe convincing enough to cross centuries!  

 

As if future folk could not simply shrug and say “that’s not how we roll here, great-grampa! We’re adjusting the ledgers, now, and applying that capital to something useful.” 

 

Trying to prevent that -- and force a stable, money-based standard of revival -- may be among the top reasons why Trump… along with some of the other New Lords and Olde Families… are engaging in their current worldwide putsch! A full-court press to end the Enlightenment Experiment and re-establish dismal feudalism. Because a feudal society can ensure the continuity and power of inherited or self-bequeathed wealth. In fact, that’s why feudalism dominated for 6000 years, on five continents!

 

But then, instead of mere lucre, let’s go back to fame! Trump’s passion - for all his life - would naturally extend into purported afterlife! 

 

“They’re sure to revive someone who was as interesting as me!  Or who had such great ratings!” 

 

Fame has always been called a version of immortality, right? And can anyone doubt that the same theme pounds through every fiber of Trump’s being? 

 

And what better way to ensure epic fame than doubling (Tripling? Mercator sextupling?) the size of the United States?

 

    == A modest proposal ==

Which brings us to a weird suggestion. (Weird? From me? Never!) And mind you, I am not actually doing this thing that I’m about to discuss, only speculating about it, as if in a sci fi story. Indeed, I might write it, with all the names changed! 

 

Still, it’s a transactional offer that seems straight off the pages of The Art of the Deal. One that might compel something that we want… without violating any current law, whatsoever. And if I’m right about this motive – consistent with the techie-incel brats who now infest the White House – then it goes straight to the core of Donald Trump’s greatest wish and goal.

“Dear Mister T, have we got a deal for you.

 

“First, if the core supposition of this missive is wrong, then all of what follows is just moot speculation, worthy of a sci-fi flick. 

 

“But given the nature of the men who have been planted around you, it’s a pretty good guess that you have by now been persuaded to make arrangements. For your cadaver – after death – to be cryonically stored, which is by law merely a process for disposing of human remains, like burial or cremation. 

 

“To be perfectly clear – none of us intend in any way to hasten that demise! Indeed, we vow to prevent or delay it, if ever any of us find ourselves in a position to influence such matters.

 

“But let’s assume that an end to this life/incarnation does come (it happens to us all) and that – clutching both a death certificate and a cryonics contract – your body commences a voyage of chilled storage and delayed delivery to some future time. 

 

“In that case, it is inevitable that we or others will discover the facts about that body-disposal arrangement. And hence, we now propose a deal! A non-disclosure agreement or NDA (your favorite kind of agreement), under which we’ll refrain from openly revealing the location of your remains, or in any way acting on that knowledge, providing only that the following terms have been fulfilled –

 

“-- that you have resigned from the office of U.S. president by May 2026… and that you take JD Vance with you. And that whatever foundation or trust you set up, to pay for eventual revival, shall preserve capital for that purpose (what remains after lawsuit settlements), but use the interest in service of what future generations will assess to be good causes.

 

“Again, this is not, in any way, shape or form, a threat to you, as a living human being. Indeed, each of us vows to protect your life and health from harm, if ever any such power presents itself. We are assuming that neither foul play nor self-harm - nor some crazy 'early freezing' - were involved. We expect that you intend to eke out every minute of this life that your health and modern medicine can provide, as do nearly all of us. The topic here is only what happens after 'natural causes.' And whether you intend - as thousands do - for your remains to be entrusted to specialists who have made promises.

 

“Furthermore, we are assured that revealing the location and condition of a corpse is routinely done in a vast majority of burials and/or cremations today. There is no rational reason that yours – perhaps in a secure and guarded refrigeration crypt – should not be a matter of public record and/or historical/archaeological or even medical interest. Some folks may even visit yours as a shrine! Whatever others decide to do with the information is not something we care to even imagine. But if your intention is to keep the actual location secret – even (or especially) from your still-living heirs - then our offer stands. With plenty of time and incentives and out of sheer curiosity, we’ll find it. At which point, the NDA will kick in!

 

“That’s it. A mutually beneficial deal, taken from your book and your business dealings and personal practices. And we who are involved in offering you this deal will feel honor-bound to keep it. And you know that many people do believe in honor. Even if you never did. And we promise to urge others to keep the same deal. Assuming that you keep your side of the bargain.

 

“And now we’re done… except to remind you that crushing the dreams of a vast majority of human beings on this planet may not be the best way to ensure a safe and successful arrival at your desired, promised land of personal immortality.”

 

                == Take the deal, Don ==

Is this entire scenario likely? 

 

I could not possibly venture what the betting odds might be. Only that it is entirely consistent with the openly-stated thinking of the worm-tongues who now surround an impressionable old dementian. And we’re doing him a favor by getting him to reconsider and reexamine the ice-cold-voyage scenario that those Trump-whisperers have been offering him. 

 

There are implications that Moldbug (Yarvin) or Miller or Vance won’t have mentioned. And maybe Donald Trump ought to ponder them.* And consider perhaps sacrificing a little near-term power in exchange for future immortality. And then – through his early absence – allowing us to resume scientific  and social progress that are prerequisites for the kind of future on which his plans depend.

=======

  ======================= side addenda ============

Well, well. What I posted just before this may be just fantasy from an over-eager imagination... based on knowing some cryonics customers personally. And they range from pro-enlightenment decents all the way to ingrate ‘neo-feudalists’who infest this administration and their loony zillionaire ‘accelerationist prepper‘ backers.

Across that broad spectrum are those who want jus tone thing - to cheat death. Is that too much to ask?

Immortalists, whom I have discussed elsewhere, seek ways to evade nature’s programmed final demise. So let me repeat an important point: some of these fellows - nearly all male - are actually fine guys and not involved in the prepper-feudalist thing at all! They invest in lifespan extension companies and research that might benefit us all. They blog to share the latest advice for healthy living. Some of them are still friends. And I have never - in this article or elsewhere - dissed them for having cryonics contracts! Indeed, this essay is not about whether Donald Trump shouldarrange for freezing after death. By all means, as they say, knock yerself out! This posting is only about knowledge of it, if true. Whether everyone should know if ex-Don is stored… and where.

But there’s something else.

Whether or not there’s a cryonics angle to Donald Trump, I would also offer wager stakes that he’s one of the rich dudes who is buying young blood.

It’s a cult notion that’s based on mouse experiments -- they suppose that transfusions from young healthy human donors will re-set their physical clocks and give them more, vigorous lifespan. (I’m a skeptic; for reasons I discuss here, NO mouse experiments apply very much to humans when it comes to lifespan; bet me on that. Still, there are reports of marginally positive effects.)

Yes, it’s creepy to contemplate, calling to mind the “organlegger” scenarios in Larry Niven’s magnificent early novels. And there’s nothing at present immoral or illegal about it! The young folks are presumably well-paid and can replace the pint they sell within a month. As I do, each time I donate. (I just gave the blood bank pint #108.)

Hey, no coercion, no foul. Though it’s easy to imagine the fetish getting out of hand! In a neo-feudal future.

Anyway, one can well envision why they want to keep it secret, whether or not the purchases and transfusions are legal and completely ethical, mutually beneficial business deals. I can’t blame these fellows for not wanting the lurid (and for now, unfair) “vampire!” accusation.

Is there any way all of this can be exposed for public scrutiny and discussion?

Well, consider how I just bragged over my record of over a hundred blood donations. It prompted me to ask a question that maybe no one asked before: “What do the rich blood-suckers… I mean fair and karma-free blood-buyers… do with the OLD blood that they need to drain from their bods, in order to make room for the good, new stuff?”

I’ll refrain from spelling it out. For now… just think about it. I’ve already given you clues and it opens a wide trail for some Sherlock, or Hercule, or Ms. Marple.

But let me add one more. The BRUISING on Trump’s hands? The cankles? It’s been theorized they come from needle/injection sites. For drugs? Sure. But none of that is inconsistent with desperate-measure transfusions. Though… no… the CLUE that I offered, to answer the paragraph before this one does not apply to Donald Trump… and never will. And that, too, is a clue. 

=======

*Or the South Park guys.