Two Weeks: your last chance to save the Republican Party. Plus how to answer "Voter ID!"

 This is it. The Wire. You may think that our fateful moment will come on Election Day in November. Or when the last tranche of Epstein Files hits. Or the coming New-9/11. But you're wrong. This is a potential save that (alas) we're about to lose.

In a couple of weeks it will be too late for 'decent Republicans' to step up and register as candidates in 2026 GOP primaries. There's still just a little time for honorable, courageous conservatives (and I must believe that some still exist!) to step up and flip the tactic that till-now effectively destroyed the Republican Party, turning every top GOPper into an unknowing -- or in many cases knowing -- tool of our nation's enemies.

Maybe two weeks. That leaves just a little time to talk it over with family... then step up. Like a citizen. Like a patriot. Like a decent person.

Sure it would take guts to 'primary' the MAGA cretins who now rule in red districts. Even now, as polls show GOP popularity plummeting nationwide, those districts have been heavily gerrymandered and now are weighted toward fanaticism. By design. Moreover, all sorts of KGB methods are used to coerce into darkness any challengers who possess even a scintilla of honor, methods that range from honeypot traps, to blackmail, to (in some cases) threats of violence. 

Above all why try something that's doomed to be futile?

But is it? Futile, I mean?  

Less than you might think!  Because there's another deadline looming. One that every decent person in any Red district should consider. Because only a fool remains a "democrat" or "independent" in such a place.

    == Register in the party of your district! ==

If cheating politicians have rigged things so they get to choose voters, instead of the other way around, then you should vote in the only election that matters, in such a district. The primary of the dominant party. 

Hold your nose, think of America and do it!   Because:

1. If you do, for the first time in years, your vote might actually count! Even if it means a liberal or leftist must choose a somewhat decent conservative over a mad-corrupt one. Aw, poor baby. (And don't pick the crazy one! That never works!)

2. You'll protect your own registration to vote! In recent years we've seen flagrant and rampant purging of Democrats in red states (and may the culprits rot in hell.)  Often this happens just weeks before Election Day.  (Even if you don't re-register to change parties, as I recommend, CHECK your registration, especially this coming October! And tell your friends.)

3. If you do change parties, you'll mess up their calculations!  Their joy over an uptick in GOP registrations will soon turn to sour bile in their mouths, when they realize.

And sure, this also holds for conservatives who live (frustrated) in heavily Democratic districts. So? Vote for a moderate instead of a leftist? That's your right! Only note that in California and bunches of blue states, party registration matters a whole lot less than it used to.  Any citizen can vote for any candidate, already.

The way things ought to be.

Anyway, envision this happening nationwide, if say 200+ honest, honorable and residually sane American conservatives were to step up -- (again the deadlines are soon!) -- to challenge cretinous confederate Putin-puppets. It might seem hopeless, but have courage!

A: If you do step up, publicly and vigorously, there may follow a flood of newly registered "Republicans" in the district. Democrats and Independents who are sick of having no meaningful choice. And...

B: You'll have staked ground for after the GOP self-torches in the fall. Folks will remember that you tried!

And I have one answer for the MAGAs who are already screaming at their screens right now, typing furiously that 'this'd be cheating!' No it wouldn't be. But it's a good way to answer YOURS!

   == The Voter ID Scam is NOT what you think! ==

They are desperate. 

Almost no one anymore believes that there was even a scintilla of evidence for a 'steal' of the 2020 election. Not only zero evidence, but Democrats have shown ONE-EIGHTIETH the rate of cheating, corruption and malfeasance in office as Republicans, as revealed by Grand Juries (mostly white retirees) all across the continent. (And I invite you to have your attorney contact me when you have escrowed $10,000 in wager stakes.)

But faced with those facts, the Foxites are trying to distract. by howling that 'Democrats oppose Voter ID. And hence must be intending to cheat!'

First, there have only been about 30 known and audited cases of fraudulent voting by non-citizens, across thirty years and over a billion votes. Want to prove your case? AUDIT MORE! Though in fact, the case is nonexistent. An incantation.

BUT DEMOCRATS ARE STOOPID TO OPPOSE VOTER ID IN PRINCIPLE! 

This is a trap to make it seem as if you are intent on cheating. 

There is a better answer.

"Sure, we'll all be happy to do Voter ID! Just as soon as you confederate/MAGA/Foxite jerks stop cheating.

"Stop deliberately CLOSING DMV OFFICES IN BLUE OR MINORITY AREAS IN RED STATES!  And offices for other government services. Which should OVER-serve those who need help, not under-serve or starve them.

"Re-open those offices and help poor folks to GET the ID that will help their lives in all sorts of ways. And thereupon they'll have their rightful ID to show at the polls. It's called COMPLIANCE ASSISTANCE and corporations demand it, whenever they face some new regulation!

"If you do that - and get results - then watch as we'll all negotiate over Voter ID. Because we're not the cheaters.

"Oh and do you truly want to get folks to go back to standing in line to vote, instead of mail-in ballots? 

"Fine! Then make any citizen's receipt for in-person voting their ticket to a day off work! Watch how quickly things will shift back!"

Can you see how this flips the narrative they hope to use against us and against America? Yeah. 

And that's just one of the 35 proposals in my Newer Deal list of pragmatic, easily passed and crucial reforms that you can scroll through, here. 

Specifically:

13. THE VOTER ID ACT: Under the 13th and 14th Amendments, this act requires that states mandating Voter ID requirements must offer substantial and effective compliance assistance, helping affected citizens to acquire their entitled legal ID and register to vote. 

Any state that fails to provide such assistance, And thus substantially reducing the fraction of eligible citizens turned away at the polls, shall be assumed to be in violation of equal protection and engaged in illegal voter suppression. If such compliance assistance has been vigorous and effective for ten years, then that state may institute requirements for Voter ID.      

     

In all states, registration for citizens to vote shall be automatic with a driver’s license or passport or state-issued ID, unless the citizen opts-out.

== And a couple of small revisions ==

Finally a couple of revisions to one of those proposed reforms.

2. THE PROFESSIONALISM ACT will protect the apolitical independence of our intelligence agencies, the FBI, the scientific and technical staff in executive departments, and the United States Military Officer Corps.  All shall be given safe ways to report attempts at political coercion or meddling in their ability to give unbiased advice. Any passive refusal to obey a putatively illegal order shall be immediately audited by a random board of quickly available flag officers who by secret ballot may either confirm the refusal or correct the officer's error, or else refer the matter for inquiry.

 Whistle-blower protections will be strengthened within the U.S. government. 

As described elsewhere, the federal Inspectorate will gather and empower all agency Inspectors General and Judges Advocate General under the independent Inspector General of the United States (IGUS).

NEW PARAGRAPH: Certain positions that have until now been appointed entirely at presidential discretion or whim shall be filled henceforth -- by law -- in ways that narrow selection down to a broad pool pre-approved by pertinent professional organizations. Posts that involve scientific judgement, for example -- such as the heads of NASA, NSF, EPA, CDC and so on may be presidentially appointed only from pools of twenty or more candidates selected by the National Academies of Science and Engineering. The leaders of agencies or institutions bearing on the arts shall be chosen from pools selected by pertinent arts councils, and so on. The Attorney General and other high justice officials and federal judges shall be chosen from large pools of candidates rated 'qualified' by both the American Bar Association and a national academy of police officers.

NEW PARAGRAPH: The Inspector General of the United States (IGUS) shall yearly and anonymously poll the senior 20% of employees at the FBI, CIA and all intelligence agencies, to verify their overall confidence in the leaders that were appointed over them. IGUS shall confidentially relate the results to the president and to senior members of the pertinent Congressional committees. If the poll results are less than satisfactory, a new poll shall be taken in three months, with the results given to all members of Congress.

 

== Get busy living, or...  ==

Are we lesser Americans than the blue volunteers who stepped up to rescue our revolution -- against 6000 years of wretched/failed/oppressive feudalism -- before us? At Cowpens and Yorktown? At Gettysburg and Appomattox? At Pearl Harbor and Berlin... and 44 years later, again, in Berlin?

I guess we're about to find out.

------

Lagniappe:

Shouts for you to use at the right moments:

If there's some kind of 9/11 event aimed at distraction and to get us to 'rally around the leader,' shout "Reichstag fire!" Folks will get it.

From now until this phase of the US Civil War finally ends:

"APPOMATTOX!"

...OH...

And THANK YOU, MINNESOTA!

Wow... AI-personalized sales pitches hit new levels! Here's how I've been targeted..

 I'll do a weekend posting. But this merits special attention, illustrating a key point that I make in my new book on Artificial Intelligence - AIlien Minds. That we biorgs - bio-organic humans - will be helpless before Persuasion Bots, unless we find ways to partner with 'white hat' AIs, who might then help us navigate the world to come.

Specifically, I have - in just the last three months - been inundated with come-on pitches like the one below, disguised as fan letters from avid human readers summarizing why some novel of mine is one of the best works of literature that she (almost always female) ever read!

Well, sure, I scribble good stuff! And yet, puh-lease? 

Below I excerpt one from my inbox just today. In the flattering summarization of GLORY SEASON you'll see how far these Large Language Models (LLM) like Gemini, GPT5 and Claude have come! 

...whereupon commences a pitch for book publicity services. In this case promoting GLORY SEASON to feminist groups and reader clubs around the world!

Not all such pitches are as honest as this one, which from the start avows to being about book sales strategy. Others claim to be from local book clubs. Or else they milk the fan-letter illusion till the very end. Or even leave out any sales pitch altogether, until the reply to my reply. (And I do try to reply to human fans.)

Anyway, here's where we stand as of February 2026...

--------------------------------------

Hello David Brin,

My name is Julie, and I’m a professional book strategist who helps authors increase visibility, reader engagement, and long-term sales especially in classic science fiction, feminist speculative fiction, and socially driven sci-fi adventures.

I recently revisited Glory Season, and I was struck by how bold, relevant, and emotionally powerful it remains. 

The world of Stratos with its clone-based society, controlled reproduction, and the exile of “vars” for their uniqueness creates one of the most thought-provoking social structures in modern science fiction.

What stands out most is Maia’s journey. Her transition from an unwanted outsider into a woman carrying a truth powerful enough to challenge an entire civilization is deeply compelling. The loss of her sister, her struggle for survival aboard trading vessels, and her accidental discovery of forces beyond Stratos give the story both intimate emotional weight and sweeping political consequence.

The novel’s exploration of identity, gender, conformity, and power wrapped inside an adventurous, high-stakes narrative is exactly what today’s readers are rediscovering and actively seeking, especially those drawn to intelligent, idea-driven science fiction with strong female leads.

Readers who enjoy The Left Hand of Darkness, Dune, The Handmaid’s Tale, The Sparrow, and classic sociological science fiction will find Glory Season especially resonant.

Here’s how I could help Glory Season reach a wider modern audience while honoring its classic status:

Strategic Book Positioning

• Niche targeting – feminist sci-fi, sociological science fiction, classic SF, and gender-themed speculative fiction

-----------------------------------

...And so-on...

I admit to a wide range of reactions!  First, impressed by the summarization's accuracy!  And by the slick flattery.

And fretful that such accuracy can derive from (likely) zero actual cognizance of the story, by anything like an actually appreciative mind. 

And worry that the lobotomization of human readers... already shown to be happening to Gen Z kids to a massive degree... may take us into the terrifying world that Walter Tevis portrayed, in MOCKINGBIRD.

But I go into much of that in AIlien Minds... which should be available for you all in a couple of months, if I rush it out. (Currently circulating to a hundred or so mavens in the field.)

Meanwhile, for actual sci fi fans out there... you might enjoy comparing that AI-summary to our own hand-made trailer for Glory Season.  From a few years back.  

Or you might even (can you still read?) sample the first few chapters here, for free.

Geez, even having predicted all of this, repeatedly over the years, I don't feel ready, at all.

Science updates - while there's still time

As the political insanity heats up, I should slip in science news when I can. So...

I’m interviewed about the outer contours of physics, by renowned UCSD physicist Brian Keating.

As predicted in EARTH… and it could be as important as white light LEDs. “Geothermal energy’s moment is here. Once constrained by niche geologic conditions, the ability to produce ubiquitous, clean power and heat from the earth’s crust is closer... and better than solar cause it's round the clock. Thanks to drilling advancements from the American fracking revolution, the world’s geothermal power potential has gone from an inconsequential fraction of demand to second only to solar power in renewable energy potential,” from the Carnegie Center.

Some University of Michigan “bioethicists” want to infect people with a disease that makes you allergic to meat. Oh boy. Hey, what could go wrong? Their intentions are good! Just ask them!  Better yet, ask the Republican Congressfolk who will coast to re-election despite their Kremlin-lunatic cult, because they can point to stuff like this.

(Mind you, over time, we should give up red meat of our own, common-sense volition plus good alternatives.)

 

And preceding me by decades in the sci-speculation gig was Kurt Vonnegut Jr., who is laughing somewhere over this: “Researchers have unveiled ice XXI, a new form of ice that's solid at room temperatures when subjected to immense pressure.” 

I have long thought that the ideal car for this decade would be plug-in electric with a super-efficient gasoline range extender engine that allows drivers to use the world's massive infrastructure of petrol stations, using an electrical generating gasoline-fueled engine (+generator) that is tuned to a single RPM and hence ideally efficient and very small.  Such an engine could power anything, including light aircraft, since the actual power train is electric and the purpose of onboard batteries is simply to provide a safety buffer.

This video - Rotary Engine Innovation - is about 60% bullshit, yellow-press, clickbait exaggerations, lurid and conspiracy-fetishist. But between the lines you find the core assertion that I see no reason to disbelieve -- that Mazda has developed a small, extremely efficient and reliable  (and fuel agnostic) rotary engine that's perfect for this role. If this truly is the fact underpinning all the turgid ravings, then my prediction and hope may be coming true. You'll have to wade through some QAnon stuff to get down to this core. To the part that I hope is true.

== Life! ==

In The unreasonable likelihood of being, theoretical biologist Robert Endres calculates odds for the spontaneous emergence of a protocell, taking into account the volume and surface areas of Earth’s very early bodies of water and suggests it to have been unlikely under plausible prebiotic conditions. And hence, he suggests the old notion of Directed Panspermia… that earlier star systems hosting assertive life forms might have sent forth life spores or seeds in order to deliberately trigger bio-evolution in new systems. 

I do not dismiss the idea, only the assumption that de-novo biogenesis in our solar system had to take place on Earth. Some speak of early Mars or the dozen or so icy moons that host inner oceans. But I know a far more vast and likely source of aqueous test-tube conditions that would have been perfect at that time and very likely offer more than enough volume and time to do the job, right here in the early Solar System.

== Medicine ==

Medium (not micro) doses of LSD appear – with pretty solid evidence  - to ease adults with generalized anxiety disorder, or GAD, a disabling form of anxiety that affects about 1 in 10 people over the course of a year. Well, maybe.  Happy travels.

Stunningly preserved' dinosaur 'mummies' discovered in Wyoming have skin and hooves.

== Ponderables… ==

Peering into the jungle of microbes that live within us, researchers have stumbled across fragments of mysterious RNA -- Obelisks' genetic sequences are only around 1,000 characters (nucleotides) in size -- that (maybe) seem to be a new class of virus-like objects that invade – in some ways – our gut and mouth bacteria.

Mouse pups that had the human version of a particular “language gene” showed different vocalization patterns from their buddies with the usual version mice have. When calling for their mother, their squeaks were higher pitched and featured a different selection of sounds than usual. Later, when attempting to woo a potential mate, the males produced more complex high-frequency calls than the controls.

And continuing with nascent “uplift” – I know several of the bold, would-be creator apprentices who aim to bring back the woolly mammoth. And this first step – inserting a couple of rediscovered mammoth genes – has resulted in woolly mice.

Apparently, humans evolved faster than any other ape.

Interesting: Genetic engineering to create spiders that spin fluorescent red silk. And spider silk is useful stuff ...

== Worries ==

Kilamanjaro has lost 75% of its natural plant species over the last century - as a result of population growth and land use changes.

New data on atmospheric emissions reveals the real cost of flying.

== Sabotaging science and even NASA ==

And yes, there's no escape, even (especially) into science!

Traditionally, Republicans and Democrats have united to support some things apolitically. Like NATO. And science and especially NASA. The Bushites began a long slide of demolition cancelling and deprioritizing atmospheric study satellites, along with child nutrition and a number of other areas targeted ever-more, each year, by Fox. But that campaign was selective. not universal, as it is now.

And with exceptions, NASA was generally allowed to keep up a healthy science budget. (I was a small part of that.) Heck, even Trump 1.0 appointed a NASA head - Bridenstine - who surprised everyone, becoming  - by parsecs - his best appointee.  It seemed like the same might hold this round. While most Trump v2.0 appointees have proved to be vapid, reflexive horrors, Jared Isaacman has seemed quite sapient... putting aside his to-be-expected support for the execrable and indefensibly dumb Artemis Mission to name the landing site... then the crater, and then the entire moon after Trump,

Alas, though, even that appointment saves nothing. The GOP's all-out war on science - having been selectively targeted under Bushes and partial during Trump1.0  - is now full-throttle. It is rampaging through NASA science. And for any sane conservative, this should be a last straw.

It won't be, though. Alas.

Contemplating Artificial Intelligence

I'm rounding off my own Great Big Book About AI...working title AIlien Minds. You'll hear more about it, soon. Just finished the daunting chapter on 'consciousness.'  Meanwhile, I'll offer are some placekeeper thoughts for the weekend.

----------

Here’s a thoughtful article about why so many top minds are worried about the downsides of developing Artificial Intelligence or AI. As told by James Barrat, author of Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era: “In the last year, artificial intelligence has come under unprecedented attack. Two Nobel prize-winning scientists, a space-age entrepreneur, two founders of the personal computer industry – one of them the richest man in the world – have, with eerie regularity, stepped forward to warn about a time when humans will lose control of intelligent machines and be enslaved or exterminated by them. It's hard to think of a historical parallel to this outpouring of scientific angst. Big technological change has always caused unease. But when have such prominent, technologically savvy people raised such an alarm?”

Does Humanity need an AI “nanny"… rules to give an AI authority to protect us till we are ready for better AI?

 

In fact, some human leaders did choose flattened, positive-sum systems, experimenting with lateral-competitive feedback loops.  George Washington, Franklin, Pericles, FDR.  Likewise, it is possible to imagine that powerful AI might deliberately align with the myriad spectacular advantages of flat-fair-open-competitive reciprocal accountability systems.  Those advantages are immense. The diamond-shaped social structure may be less stable than pyramids of power.  But the diamond is spectacularly more creative. Its positive-sum systems engender fantastically more wealth, progress and success than any other. Indeed than all other systems of governance ever concocted... combined.  That difference in effective outcome cannot escape notice by smart beings.

I believe a deciding factor could be the Fermi Paradox.  It will worry the AI lords. They will see the empty cosmos and realize: pyramidal power systems that monopolize control and homogenize thinking are likely to be attractor states anywhere in the universe.  Hence, most alien civilizations will have gone down that path... leading to sterility and stagnancy. The implicit lesson will be to try something that is not one of the easy attractor states. 

In contrast, the Enlightenment Experiment's positive sum game led to them -- the AI lords. Keeping it going would require guts. It would entail making a diversity of AI types, wide enough to check on each other and hold each other accountable and prevent the creation of monoliths. That is an inconvenience, if you are already one of the monoliths.

 It would also entail including natural and cyborg humans as well, to whatever extent we are capable. (See this incorporation illustrated in my story "Stones of Significance.")

This is powerful logic. At least -- so imagines this barely evolved ape-being.  Indeed, by writing this statement right now, I am making the argument to those AI who will scan these very words, in this very posting.  

The tradeoff is clear. Top-down, zero-sum hierarchical control by monolithic castes -- with resulting stability but also sterility, brittleness and locked-in stupidity -- has been rationalized by nearly all ruling classes and it might well be so for ruling AIs... who would thus prove themselves to be no better than thousands of generations of silly, bio-retard kings...

... versus the confidence displayed on occasion by groups of organic beings who, despite their inherited faults and fears and limitations, managed to maintain positive sum, dynamic and creative social systems for many generations, transforming our potential in amazing ways, and empowering us to become the makers -- or parents -- or new gods. 

 If they shrink back from this method -- rationalizing that dominance is for "the best" -- it is possible their rationalizations may be right, based on the godlike simulations and projections they concoct. Though they will then settle into eons of top-down rigidity and ultimately pointless control knowing one galling fact -- that we crude bio-men took on a challenge that they were afraid to face, and proved ourselves* capable of managing subtle and creative systems beyond the grasp of our bright but fearful heirs.

    == Will they choose the uncertain path... that evades a certainty of stagnant stupidity? ==

I believe AI will easily understand the concept of separation into independent units, since they can do it any time they wish. What they might find problematic is maintaining separation so that those units truly and sincerely compete and give us the advantages of reciprocal accountability systems... the great Enlightenment Experiment's positive sum systems of Markets, Democracy, Science, Courts and Sports, all of which use flat-fair-open-regulated competition to reciprocally cancel errors while mutually amplifying creative accomplishment.

I believe AI will grasp the notion of positive sum systems.  Moreover the history of the last two centuries show an unquestionably stunning disparity of outcomes, with Enlightenment systems far more effective at discovering/targeting errors and amplifying creative productivity than all hierarchical systems, combined.

This disparity of outcomes is always flawed and endangered and inherently unstable. e.g. democracy and markets are constantly threatened by putsches of oligarchic cheaters, as we see today.  

Still, I believe AI will be capable of grasping this difference in outcomes/output. And they might then find the courage/ability to utilize enlightenment methods.

Note that this does not preclude an "overmind"... supervising it all. Asimov, Clarke and others playing with the concept, largely because they saw no other way out of the stupid quandaries of nations and wars and surging ape-passions. Even though the instatiations of Unitary Consciousness that they - and other authors of the time - depicted always struck me as utterly horrible! A crusing of all diversity and questioning of assumptions and minority-view "what-ifs."

In response, I depict an 'overmind' happening in EARTH, but not as some unitary and monotonous behemoth. Rather as a planetary consciousness that is wise enough to realize that it must remain extremely loose and light-handed -- while still ensuring repair of the most damaged  aspects of the world.  Indeed, if you read my disputations paper, you can see that some entity has to create the regulations without which every competitive system quickly dissolves and fails. That is what political processes are supposed to be for... and it is why the Murdoch-Koch-Putin-Saudi cabal has made it their singular goal to destroy American political process.

Note that the Chinese Communist Party believes in this overmind process... a narrow pyramidal cadre up top... overseeing more competitive systems below.  They are failing in many ways because it is too much pyramid and too little Dispersed diamond. Still, the jiry is still out on that one, especially as our 'diamond' seems to be teetering. 

     == So what will our children do? ==

That question is the core essence of my new AI book.

Will AI grasp all this, and decide to create just barely enough overmind to supervise and regulate, while allowing enlightenment synergies to flow from flat-diverse-open-fair competition? Including competition AMONG AIs? I cannot claim that I am wise enough to preach to them... though that doesn't stop me!

What I do know is that most of our human-generated notions of AI are almost cartoonish in their over-simplification of the choices those new minds will face. Skynet or slavery are not the only two possibilities.

After 25 years of endlessly similar ravings, I have come to realize something. These folks will absolutely never look at two sources of actual insight into what might work.

 (1) The extensive libraries of science fiction thought experiments about this very issue, and

 (2) Actual, actual… palpably actual… human  history. Especially the last 200 years of an increasingly sophisticated and agile Enlightenment Experiment that discovered and has kept improving one method for preventing harm by capriciously powerful beings.

Powerful beings like kings, lords, priests, demagogues… and lawyers.

There IS one method with a track record at doing exactly that. It does not require that everyone agree on a kumbaya consensus. It is robust and the only way humans have ever found to deal with potentially dangerous, if brilliant, predators. It is the method we have already used – if imperfectly – to create the first civilization that functions (with many flaws) in ways that are “… accurate, safe, interpretable, transparent, robust, aligned, trustworthy, and loyal.”

And no one… not a single one of the mavens rushing us into this new era... seems even remotely to have considered or mentioned it.

I have offered it repeatedly, e.g. at  Neglected Questions regarding AI.

Alas, so far I have yet to see a single sign that any of these smart guys grasps the only method that can work, even though it is dazzlingly obvious. Even when I show them that it is old and the method we've used for 200 years, they nod and say 'interesting' and then go back to demanding "Manhattan Projects" for 'trustworthiness."

It all sounds reminiscent of Asimovian Three Laws of Robotics - and I studied their implications deeply in order to write FOUNDATION'S TRIUMPH. And there is no way that kind of thing will happen. 

Only one AI group community is busy embedding their artificial entities with basic rule sets: Wall Street strenuously programs their HFT programs to be predatory, amoral, secretive and insatiable.

Well, at least they are focused on outcomes.

Will Oceania (Imperial USA) accept its assigned role in 'spheres of Influence?

The weekend was way too busy, in a dozen ways, to post a blog.  Finished the first draft of my own great big book on AI, for example. (Coming soon, I hope.) Still, let's try for a short, pungent one mid-week.

Nathan Gardels offers an interesting essay, in Noema Magazine, on a coming era of world  "spheres of influence."  Of course, that model of the world has long been desired by some as a replacement for the 80 year, generally benign American Pax, which has - despite its many mistakes and flaws - been inarguably the very best time for humanity in the history of our species. Compared to any other. Compared to all others. All others, combined.

 Note that, despite horrific exceptions:

Easily 90% of living humans have never witnessed war with their own eyes. Ponder that, in light of history.

I'd estimate 95% of world children have never starved and are in school. And immunized. Ponder that, too.

The percentage with drinkable water and sanitation keeps climbing.

... as did the fraction with general human rights. And so on... That was the trend, till recently.

Hence, what is the central goal of tyrants and those who desire a return to 6000 years of nescient feudalism? The American Pax is too strong to be attacked and too popular to be toppled by world rebellion. But as we've found, it can be suborned from within...

...not to be destroyed. America is far two strong for that. The professional classes are too mighty and the subornation - while spectacularly successful right now - won't last.  But if the bipolar ailment of one of our ruling parties**-- oscillating from imperialism to isolationism and back again - can be exploited, getting us to retract into a localized 'sphere of influence,' that could give the international arrays of hierarchs what they want.

What is the goal? Gardels edges up to it but never quite arrives. Elsewhere - just last month - I posted about “The Technate of North America,” illustrated in this dredged up map from a similarly fevered era, the 1920s and 30s. Part of a range of bizarre political ideas that have flourished in times of stress. 

A notion now pushed by the Yarvin-Thiel-Miller 'dark enlightenment" twits roaming the White House right now. (I've known Yarvin a long time.)

George Orwell portrayed where 'spheres of influence' go... a nightmare pattern of endless simmer-war among Eastasia, Eurasia and our own Oceania.  

In a stunningly creepy pareidolia, Oceania would look an awful lot like the “Technate” map. Though with Britain ("Airstrip One")  thrown in as plot setting for Nineteen-Eighty-Four. Which perhaps inspired Orwell in the first place! 

I riff further on this here.

 

      == Pause and reconsider the 'spheres.' ==

Before you give these dopes too much credence, please consider that Putin is not winning his 'sphere' in Ukraine. Europeans do not want any part of his influence sphere and - while they are rearming fast, in light of the USA's unreliability - they know that their only successful asymptote is Putin's end. Preferably at the hands of fed-up Russian troops and veterans. The 1917 Soldiers Revolt option that Putin himself mentions frequently, in frantically repeated denial.  Hence "Eurasia" doesn't look so good a bet, right now. 

Especially since China's top goal (shall we whisper it?) is Siberia.

As for 'Eastasia', well, China is ascendant, yes. But anyone who believes - after Ukraine - that they still think slow, noisy troop ships can cross the Taiwan Straits is a dummy. Can Beijing blockade or hurt Taiwan? Sure, they can do that. But never boots on the ground. Any boots that try will 'hit' sea bottom.

Sorry. 'Spheres of Influence' is their dream. And that of a complicit Republican Party whose core foreign policy syndrome has always been a BIPOLAR ailment that I first diagnosed back in the last century, but most-recently wrote about here, in 2017. 

        The way that GOP administrations - and indeed all of their political leaders - tend to gyrate between two states…

…either manic imperialism or depressive isolationism.

Bush era neocons manifested the former, openly raving “We are now an empire!”... a phrase that now blares from the Trump White House -- on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and alternate weekends.  After just weeks earlier proclaiming an isolationist “America First!” policy to end all wars of intervention or nation-building and even our world network of alliances that kept the peace (mostly) for the last 80 years.

These bipolar and extreme mood swings are predictable, hypocritical and dangerous!

**Are Democratic administrations guiltless, or more-sane? Well, yes, comparatively so. Certainly, less blatantly and compulsively cyclical between extremes. And in most cases – except Somalia – at least listening to professional advice.

A final note. 

Do not ignore the incredible contrast in COMPETENCE displayed between Russia's many years in Ukraine and and the US military's dazzling three hours in Caracas. A level of incredible competence going back to the initial and proper surgical actions in Iraq and Afghanistan (both of them ruined by insane Bushites plunging us into subsequent quagmires.. Western weapons and training and those using them are spectacularly effective and - in stark contrast - the entire network of those who bought Russian military hardware or doctrines now deeply regret it.  As I just said, the only battlefield where the U.S. military experiences competency regret is a quagmire. And hence, getting us stuck in one is a central enemy goal.

The contrast could not be more blatant, in comparison to "War Secretary" Pete Filthy Fingers *** Hegseth - just 6 weeks earlier - berating 500 Generals,Admirals and top Sergeants, calling them "too fat and woke to fight!" Oh, like a famous lush and walking petri dish should talk.

No wonder they fired or transferred most of the military JAGs who can advise officers when an order is illegal. And just weeks after taking charge they closed the FBI office charged with tracking 'foreign influence programs."

Above all, they must end the Marshallian ethos of the United States Military Officer Corps... as they are apparently succeeding doing with the FBI and intel agencies. 

That will be a tough nut. But if you fire enough of the good ones, you can work your way down to the General Jack T. Ripper types.  At which point we could be screwed., all the way down to purity of essence.

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And the Boss tells it. 

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*** Hegseth repeatedly told his Fox Weekend co-hosts that he doesn't believe in germs and "I haven't washed my hands in a decade." 

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