Before launching one of my regular 'ain't we wonderful at science?' riffs...
...All across the right-o-sphere, one sees not a single voice willing to discuss pros and cons of Joe Biden's actual policy proposals (during the State of the Union speech), largely because almost all of them poll separately as immensely popular and Republicans know that each would also be highly effective.
Instead, we see repeated mockery of a man who reached that lectern after struggling all his life with a stuttering handicap. Sure, at one point he said "Iranian" instead of "Ukrainian." Such gleeful pounces! Leading me to demand another wager challenge over any five random samples from Trump vs. Biden speeches, comparing passages for cogency, truthfulness, or salience to policy.
And yet... might there have been more to the "Iranian" slip of the tongue?
At an online conference today, I broached what could be the most powerful single stroke that might rock the world right now and leave Vlad the Invader reeling. Picture if Kamala Harris were to land in Tehran on a pre-negotiated "Nixon to China" mission? One that cleared our outstanding issues and performed a reset between two nations who had always been (pre 1979) the best of friends.
It'd take major concessions. On both sides. And mind you, I don't see it likely that the mullahs would let go, since their power is grounded on fear of America and Israel. But if it happened at this opportune time -- accompanied by true settlement of the nuclear issues -- then sudden release of Iranian oil production would be just the beginning. One can only envision ensuing howls from the jointly owned Kremlin-Saudi propaganda organ - Fox News - as the Riyadh r'oil house suddenly found itself desperately releasing supplies of their own, in order to hang onto whatever influence they have left.
Well, well, one can fantacize.
Meanwhile, here is one of the better Ukraine update channels I've seen. It points out that the 'red zones' that seem 'conquered' by Russia are only occupied along direct paths and highways. There are no signs of police or civil affairs forces needed for a real occupation. A bypassed, angry citizenry with farm tractors and Molotov cocktails is not 'occupied.'
That must make for long, unpeaceful nights in those floundering, quagmire brigade columns.
== Over to science! ==
Amazing. The U.S. Army's new Covid vaccine may give immunity to almost all coronaviruses, including SARS and many common colds. Developed at Walter Reed, the SpFN vaccine has undergone the first round of human trials.
Unfortunately, as any sci fi reader knows, Covid-19 may not be the 'Big One': Army scientists warn of deadlier pandemics yet to come.
Is it life? Living robots self-replicate: Xenobots are basically large structures of thousands of modified skin and heart cells from frogs. “The skin cells provide rigid support while the heart cells act as small motors to let the Xenobot move forward. When the 1-millimeter-wide Xenobots were first unveiled to the world last year, scientists were exhilarated by their ability to swim out and self-assemble into larger tissues.” Now comes news that they have been taught how to fabricate new xenobots out of cells piled amorphously nearby.
== Popularizing science ==
Bringing together the worlds of science: John Gribbin’s latest science journalism book is well worth a look. Eight Improbable Possibilities: the Mystery of the Moon and Other Implausible Scientific Truths. “is a whirlwind tour of the most fantastical discoveries science has revealed – the facts that are almost impossible to believe, but are true according to the best available evidence. With chapters on topics from gravitational waves to the butterfly effect…”
Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future by Elizabeth Kolbert, author of The Sixth Extinction, takes a far-ranging look at the future of our planet - and humanity. And how we will deal with threats to the Earth.
== From the frontiers of Biology! ==
The latest medical research indicates that the Epstein-Barr virus may trigger multiple sclerosis.
A wonder drug that reverses some of the debilitating effects of aging and other traumas to the brain? "ISRIB" could have long-range implications for dementia, age-related cognitive design and Parkinson's Disease, by rebooting cellular protein production.
How do biological mutations happen? It’s a bit more complex than Darwin envisioned. Chromosome curls and folds apparently protect some vital genes from mutation better than others – a fascinating prioritization. “Knowing why some regions of the genome mutate more than others could help breeders who rely on genetic variation to develop better crops. Scientists could also use the information to better predict or develop new treatments for diseases like cancer that are caused by mutation.”
A possible treatment for arthritis: Bioengineers are developing an implant which generates a tiny electrical current to help heal knee joints after cartilage damage.
(BTW I have noticed something. My own isolated patch of arthritis always nearly vanishes after a bee sting.)
A lifelong dream for biologists… solving the protein folding problem … appears to have come true with stunning speed, this year. DeepMind scientists reported have solved 350,000 proteins found in the human body—44% of all known human proteins. They expect their database will grow to 100 million proteins across all species, nearly half the total number believed to exist. The next step is to predict which of those proteins work together and how they interact, revealing which proteins bind to one another. Code for AlphaFold2 and RoseTTAFold is now publicly available. Alphabet, launched a new venture that will use predicted protein structures to design new drug candidates. “Much work remains. Protein structures aren’t static; they bend and twist as they do their jobs, and modeling those changes remains a challenge. And it’s still a daunting task to visualize most of the large, multi-protein complexes that carry out myriad jobs in cells.”
Game-playing mini-brains: Scientists taught hundreds of thousands of brain cells to play pong in just five minutes, which is quicker than artificial intelligence (AI), which picks up the game 90 minutes later. Called "DishBrains," the system comprises brain cells grown on top of micro-electrode arrays that can both stimulate the cells.
In related news, an Israeli team found it took a five- to eight-layer neural network, or nearly 1,000 artificial neurons, to mimic the behavior of a single biological neuron from the brain’s cortex. Moreover, this assumed that everything is electrochemical stimulus and repression, via synapses feeding networks of dendrites. If those dendrites have (as suspected) computational elements along their length, then the difference could be orders larger. And if the Penrose-Hameroff speculations about quantum effects bear out, then all bets are off.
Fish drive cars? Apparently, goldfish have the cognitive ability to learn a complex task in an environment completely unlike the one they evolved in. As in this experiment where goldfish learn to control and ‘drive’ a wheeled vehicle toward target sites on land.
We need to invest more in efforts like this one: “the Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology aimed to replicate 193 experiments from 53 top cancer papers published from 2010 to 2012. But only a quarter of those experiments were able to be reproduced.” It’s not as bad as the headline implies… but it’s pretty bad and we need to institutionalize and regularize such reproducibility projects.
== Bio Miscellany ==
While it’s long been known that some fish and amphibians can do parthenogenesis… females producing young without contributions from a male… it is very rare among warm-blooded creatures. But lately it’s proved that California Condors have done it recently, much as in my novel Glory Season.
A project is underway, using advanced machine learning methods to parse the language (if any) of sperm whales. It will be an ambitious undertaking, calling for drones and robots to collect data on whale actions, to correlate with the utterances... hoping the robots won't interfere or bother the creatures, lest most of the translations turn out to be stuff like "I knew I shouldn't have swallowed that thing; it complains more than Jonah did!"
69 comments:
hoping the robots won't interfere or bother the creatures, lest most of the translations turn out to be stuff like "I knew I shouldn't have swallowed that thing; it complains more than Jonah did!"
Or "Herman Melvile was an overrated hack!"
The bit about arthritis responding well to bee venom has been known for some time; the one record I saw dated from 1908!
A MAGA belittled Biden for using the slang “hooch”, assuming it was a reference to moonshine. But it also means overseas military lodgings.
TML bu my personal testimony matters.
Dr Brin in the main post:
As in this experiment where goldfish learn to control and ‘drive’ a wheeled vehicle...
There's a scene like that in One Fish, Two Fish, Red Fish, Blue Fish.
* * *
Laurence:
Or "Herman Melvile was an overrated hack!"
In an issue of All Star Superman, Lex Luthor escapes his prison cell using an electronic library to play "Moby Dick" at a frequency which can cut through solid rock. The punch line was when he said the device was, "literally boring a passage through the earth." Have to admit I LMAO at that one.
@Brain Cells: Wasn't one of William Gibson's Neuromancer books about brain chips including neurons that developed into Voodoo Loa Personalities?
And maybe it would be wise to limit AI with biological constraints, mortality and such, as a safeguard.
Der Oger:
And maybe it would be wise to limit AI with biological constraints, mortality and such, as a safeguard.
It would have been wise to limit corporations that way.
LH my UIUC talks will be April 25 and 26.
Biden is an inspiration to all stutterers, regardless of their politics or nationality. Maybe not as succinct and eloquent as "I need ammo, not a ride", but still impressive. This is what leaders look like. They seem nerdish and quirky after the parade of psychotic monster-clowns we've endured in recent years.
And being mocked by the likes of Boebert and MTG is a badge of honour.
Shelling nuclear power plants*: the sincerest way of saying "I don't care about international opinion."
* not that it's likely to explode.
I'd bet many of the auto-immune disorders have symptoms that temporarily improve after one is stung by a bee.
Last time* I checked in on novel therapies for some of them I read about people who wanted to trick your body into thinking it was suffering a parasite. Basically, give the immune system something else to do besides destroy the cartilage in your joints.
* It's been a few years. I'm probably out of date. Giving our immune systems a different target that won't actually do harm to us struck me as a neat trick for buying time.
Maybe not as succinct and eloquent as "I need ammo, not a ride", but still impressive.
If I ever advance to a management position, I solemnly vow to put up a poster of it in my office.
There are a number of slogans and memes used over here:
- It is "Putins War", not "Russian War"
- "Renewable Energies are Freedom Energies" (Christian Lindner)
- "This is a change of times (and it is Putin's fault)" (Olaf Scholz)
- Right-wingers stressing that Ukrainian refugees are better than those with a darker skin and praying to a different kind of god. And while we're at it: They are not called refugees, but "displaced persons".
I predict that "Slava!" becomes a "youth word" in German during the next months or years, like "Babo", "lost", "wyld" etc.
Tony Fisk: but the prevailing wind blows east into Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/business/china-russia-ukraine-disinformation.html
The fog of disinformation thickens when Chinese state media portrays Russia’s war as an anti-fascism effort. After Russia’s defense minister announced this week that his country would host the first international anti-fascism conference in August, the CCTV posted a one-paragraph story, then created a Weibo hashtag. Within 24 hours, it had 650 million views and was used by 90 media outlets. Many commenters called Ukraine and the United States fascist countries.
So wait. The Russian (and Chinese) story is that Russia is fighting against fascism in Ukraine? Russia is hosting the first international anti-fascism conference in August? Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity and Donald Trump are on the side of antifa rampaging through peaceful cities and destroying them?
Dr Brin:
my UIUC talks will be April 25 and 26
Thanks for the information. Do you happen to know if they are open to the general public? My daughter is a student there, and she'll probably be interested, but I would also consider attending myself if that's an option.
https://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2022/03/putins-us-stooges-must-be-called-out.html
...
As the war gets more brutal, anyone who ever enabled this shit needs to be called out. George Stephanopoulos made Sen. Tom Cotton, who always looks like he's afraid he's going to get a call from Tucker Carlson for help burying the child's body, very uncomfortable by asking him to condemn Trump's sloppy blow job. That should be the same with every goddamn Republican. Do you agree with Trump on Putin? Do you condemn what he said? Is Trump full of shit or are you?
Because this is the kind of time where silence equals acquiescence, which, ironically enough, is what Putin had hoped would happen with Ukraine. Instead, we see the power of resistance to shift the narrative. As Russia uses banned weapons and talks about public executions, the US media can aid the resistance or give comfort to the domestic enemies.
Comedian John Fugelsang on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"Bill Barr has covered up more crap than cat litter [has]."
LH: my UIUC schedule is still in flux but here are basics:
4-25 Monday: Possible noon or PM astronomy talk re Changing prospects for Life in the Universe and the Fermi Paradox
7:30 pm “Will Human Augmentation Keep Up With Artificial Intelligence... and Possibly Surpass It?” Center for Advanced Study. Knight Auditorium of the Spurlock Museum.
4-26 Tuesday: lunch Creative Writing Program
Lindsey Graham's call last night to assassinate Putin plays *exactly* into Putin's own narrative.
Almost like it was planned.
Or something.
Also, very interesting that our resident Russia and Putin lovers here on this blog have gone silent since his invasion.
Alfred Differ:
I'd bet many of the auto-immune disorders have symptoms that temporarily improve after one is stung by a bee.
I've heard something similar, but in the bad direction. That a tick bite can trigger food allergies that the person never had before, even in advanced age.
Heh.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Senate/Maps/Mar04.html#item-7
Russian censorship, which is significant even at the best of times, is turned all the way up to 10 right now, as Putin desperately tries to keep his citizenry united behind the war that he starter. It is not well for the Russian people to hear negative things about the war effort, or about what's happening to the Ukrainian people, so most possible outlets for that sort of information—social media platforms, non-Russian TV and radio broadcasts, foreign newspapers, etc.—have been blocked.
Where there's a will, there's a way, however, and determined activists have found opportunities that escaped the censors' attention. The most interesting is...restaurant reviews. People are going to the Yelp and Google pages for prominent restaurants in Moscow and other cities and leaving 5-star "reviews" like these: "5,800 Russian Soldiers died today, 4,500 yesterday. Stop your aggression, don't let your kids suffer, if you go to war you will not come back" and "The food was great! Unfortunately, Putin spoiled our appetites by invading Ukraine. Stand up to your dictator, stop killing innocent people! Your government is lying to you. Get up!"
From the last post:
For all we know, the idea [eugenics] might still be popular in polite society today but for Hitler ripping off the mask and making clear just what was being promoted.
Still is. Listen to anyone go on about 'welfare mothers popping out babies' or any of the similar 'they will outbreed us' scares and you'll soon hear something about stopping it. Coming from someone who's against abortion and birth control, that really only leaves sterilization as an option for achieving their target.
I heard it back in the 80s at university. I heard it this millennium at work — not bluntly 'we should sterilize all irresponsible (black) mothers', but when you distilled down what they were saying that's what it amounted to.
From the last post:
The laws which forced heroes like Mr. Incredible and Elastigirl to hide their powers from their neighbors wouldn't have done anything to stop them had they in fact gone bad. They merely prevented the heroes from doing good.
ISTR there was also mention of limiting collateral damage from super fights. It looked like superheroes left a lot of damage in their wake and didn't really seem to care about it. The old agent minding Mr. Incredible gave him an earful about that after the family fought the mole guy at the beginning of the second movie.
It would have been wise to limit corporations that way.
Corporations are just a set of rules. Rules can be changed. The idea that they are persons with rights is very strange.
Many commenters called Ukraine and the United States fascist countries.
I can't comment on Ukraine, but America (or at least the Republican half) has been heading down the road to fascism for years.
scidata:
A scoundrel's curse is a blessing, and a fool's insult is praise.
Der Oger:
I relabel "renewable energy" as "owned power". A windmill or a solar panel or a geothermal tap or a hydroelectric dam don't give you energy, measured in kilowatt-hours: they give you power, measured in kilowatts.
It's fossil fuels that provide energy, measured in kilowatt-hours. When you buy a gallon of gasoline, you buy the heat energy that you can get by burning that gallon. And you can renew that energy, too, just by buying another gallon!
With a windmill or a solar panel or a geothermal tap or a hydroelectric dam, not only do you get a continuous flow of power (so you don't need to renew your energy) but you own that source of power! Whereas fossil fuels provide rented power. It's better to own than to rent.
"Renewable energy" and "owned power" name the same tech, but the first term sounds sprightly and tiresome, while the second appeals to our baser instincts. I vote #2.
Robert the key answer to autarchs who shout "well YOU are in no position to criticize!" is that we train our own young people to relentlessly criticize our own errors. You guys?"
Giving new meaning to "long vs short covid." I predict MAGAs will later scream "Liberals TRICKED us into opposing masks and vaccines so we'll become impotent and sick! They KNEW we'd reflexively oppose anything they recommend, the tricky bastards!"
(I have actually seen this meme already.)
https://scitechdaily.com/covid-infects-penis-testicles-and-prostate-causes-pain-erectile-dysfunction-reduced-sperm-count/
matthew:
Also, very interesting that our resident Russia and Putin lovers here on this blog have gone silent since his invasion.
I noticed that too. I didn't realize that I would literally not hear [or read] the words of traitors.
Or maybe it's because Russia has cut them off from the internet. I saw a Twitter post to the effect of, "Gee, Russia shut down its connections to Facebook, and all of my usual anti-vaxxers have gone silent."
* * *
Robert:
Coming from someone who's against abortion and birth control, that really only leaves sterilization as an option for achieving their target.
Sterilization is a kind of birth control. They don't even know what they're arguing about. They complain about lesser races outbreeding them, while they support forcing those very same women to carry pregnancies to term, knowing full well that educated, wealthy white women will continue to get abortions whenever they (or their impregnators) want them.
Corporations are just a set of rules. Rules can be changed. The idea that they are persons with rights is very strange.
You're singing my song. Entities which are legally prohibited from having empathy or a conscience should not be perceived or treated as citizens.
"Many commenters called Ukraine and the United States fascist countries."
I can't comment on Ukraine, but America (or at least the Republican half) has been heading down the road to fascism for years.
The bitterly ironic thing is that Russia--who has encouraged and aided the rise of American fascism--is claiming to be in Ukraine to fight fascism. If it wasn't so dangerous, it would be even funnier that the loudest American pro-fascist voices who deride any kind of demand for social justice as riots staged by "Antifa" now have to parrot Putin's narrative that Russian aggression is justified to fight fascism. Essentially, Russia (and China) are saying, "Antifa is justified in burning and destroying cities," and Tucker, Hannity, Trump, etc. are cheering them on.
I suppose that, in true 1984 form, we'll be hearing how Republicans were always at war with fascism.
Dr Brin:
MAGAs will later scream "Liberals TRICKED us into opposing masks and vaccines so we'll become impotent and sick! They KNEW we'd reflexively oppose anything they recommend, the tricky bastards!"
Back when it was acceptable to tell Polish jokes, there was one whose punch line was, "How does it feel to be dumber than a [slur for Polish person]?"
In that spirit, I would respond to the statement above, "How does it feel to be owned by a liberal?"
@Paradoctor: "Owned Power" would not work well in translation, at least not with the double meaning. But, yeah, "renewable" is somewhat clunky in German, maybe I find a better buzzword. And remember, some terms are poisoned, over here.
@Ukraine:
Graham has made a bad situation worse. Propaganda gold for Putin, plus oligarchs now thinking twice about such a move. Now, Putins manhunt for Zelinsky suddenly has gained the tu quoque shield.
There are reports that Zelinsky was warned of three assassination attempts by very well informed sources within the FSB. Wonder if they are playing the same game Canaris & the Abwehr played.What I have read these days about German sources in Russia could mean that Putin's security apparatus is undermined more than vice versa.
We don’t wish sickness on Rightists, but impotence can mean less Eric Trumps born. ‘Course, they can adopt children, but the percentage of their kids can be reduced somewhat.
—-
Re Ukraine and America as “fascist” countries.
There’s a meme Rightists will listen to, perhaps not accept, yet they’ll pay attention. I tell them it is a simple fact that Poland’s ‘reactionary’ government oppressed thousands of German Poles in ‘39. But it was NOTHING next to WW2.
They know such is a fact and have no riposte.
Actually, I thought Mikey Day's act on SNL where they portrayed the Trump brothers was wonderful, not ONLY for the mockery and the jokes... but also because of their portrayal of a sweetly loving relationship between brothers. While laughing with digs at their well-deserved reputations, that one aspect was simultaneously rather... endearing! And I doubt it's like that in real life. But who knows?
The distinction between power and energy is the distinction between pipe and container. It's a useful one to recall in tech discussions. Electric cars need a container to go anywhere and a pipe to refill it.
----
As for a 'Nixon went to China' concept, it is useful to remember that Iran's #1 geopolitical imperative is to have an external enemy. Without one, they fight among themselves and can be taken piece by piece like the British did long ago.
For us to accomplish this shift, we'd best be prepared to offer the ruling elite over there a replacement for 'great satan.'
Since my worst bee sting, my toe has seemed much better almost semi permanently. Months now.
DH thought that Putin's latest stroll down Nutty Aggression Lane might be attributable to Long COVID. Several months back, Putin disappeared for several weeks. When he returned, he was sitting away from his aides at the end of a long table, not coming close to other people, and his demeanor, never pleasant, had become downright crabby and irrational. Could his break from the public view be because he was down sick with COVID, and is now suffering the aftereffects?
I stumbled upon this YouTube video from Sep 25, 2015 titled "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?"
UnCommon Core: The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis
From the blurb:
John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in Political Science and Co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, assesses the causes of the present Ukraine crisis, the best way to end it, and its consequences for all of the main actors. A key assumption is that in order to come up with the optimum plan for ending the crisis, it is essential to know what caused the crisis. Regarding the all-important question of causes, the key issue is whether Russia or the West bears primary responsibility.
I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but it gives some recent historical perspective to the current Ukrainian Crisis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
I'll allow that blatant piece of agitprop.
Someone report on it?
Kyiv Independent has just published estimated Russian losses as of Mar 5.
> 10,000 troops...
According to US intelligence, over 90% of Z force's 150,000 are now committed to the Ukraine: it takes a while to mobilise forces on this scale, so there won't be any more for a while.
This is the classic definition of a decimation (reduction by 10%).
Annihilation in some cases (reduction below 10%): one brave Russian senator* acknowledges that, of one company of 100 men, only 4 survived.
* As of tomorrow, this sort of thing is punishable by 15 years.
"Iranian people"
Funny, I remember saying something about his senility just a while ago before this (new) moment of him.
Not that the Iranian people don't deserve a respite as well.
NATO : Federation
Russia : Cardassia
China : the Dominion ?
Just sayin'
Dr Brin:
Giving new meaning to "long vs short covid...
Groan! I just realized the pun you were making.
Similar to back in the 90s when Michael Moore's tv show did a bit about why there aren't any small condoms, only "large" and "extra large". Apparently, the network told him, without apparent need for clarification or explanation but just as an obvious fact, "You can't do a bit about a small penis and expect it to play in the South."
Vaush thoroughly dismantled Mearsheimer.
https://youtu.be/iLB086ynKMA
Carmago, let's see you deliver a tense and complex speech under such conditions without a slip, even without a lifelong battle with stuttering. Let's take a random section of the speech and dissect the CONTENT and wager of the 'senility' bull.
Anyone "concerned" about Biden's cognitive abilities who didn't say a word about Trump's has zero credibility.
Who has the stomach to listen to Mearsheimer? He’s a lecturer on ‘The Jooz And Foreign Policy’
He is none too fond of Zelenskyy.
At least Biden didn't need to be corrected several times about who invaded Ukraine (Mango Unchained thought it was the US). Senility would be a very large step up for him.
The war news is depressing and terrifying. Shelling a nuclear reactor? WTF? FWIW, I listened to part of Biden’s speech and it seemed to me that he said ukRAINIAN…I heard a hint of the “UK” at the start of that word. And you all know I am no Biden fan.
As for my silence, I am doing the TurboTax thing again this year and other stuff is happening (house purchase; military reserve work) so I am ultra busy.
I know Ukranian immigrants; that couple that sold us the house in January...the wife immigrated from Ukraine with her teenage son in 2003. We celebrated new year's eve with a group of Ukranians. Heck...both sides of my family are from Ukraine. I don't know enough to have an opinion so I am just listening/reading and trying to learn.
@Don G: I actually tried to watch that Mearsheimer video - you know, both sides of the issue and all that - but couldn't make it all the way through. Seemed like a mealy-mouthed half-baked litany of excuses to justify Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Maybe the US was just as bad in Iran 1953 but that's immaterial; that was then, this is now, and 70 year-old whataboutery is just a fog machine. There's no excuse for Putin unless he tries the insanity plea.
Never heard of this guy Vaush but he seems to have his head on straight.
GMT-5:
Heck...both sides of my family are from Ukraine. I don't know enough to have an opinion...
???
What would constitute knowing enough?
Larry Hart, in ST TOS the Russians were the Romulans and the Red Chinese were the Klingons.
Basically 1960s cold war in space.
Money shot bolded...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Senate/Maps/Mar05.html#item-1
...
Although [The Guardian's Ted Galen] Carpenter has different motivations than Vladimir Putin does, he nonetheless ends up repeating one of the Russian's main talking points, namely that but for the expansion of NATO, there would be no war in Ukraine right now. This ignores a number of important historical realities. The first is that the aggressors in a war always, always, always find a way to make it the other side's fault. And since Putin's #1 enemy is, always has been, and always will be the U.S., he was going to find a way to point the finger at the Americans.
The second is that small countries like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia that are located next to a big, aggressive country Russia, are going to find themselves under the influence of some larger nation. Either they can choose the big, aggressive neighbor, or they can make nice with a more preferable friend/ally farther away. In this case, as you point out, the Baltic States chose the U.S., specifically forming the Vilnius Group (along with the nations of Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) to lobby for membership in NATO. It is interesting that libertarians like Carpenter are big fans of self-determination and freedom of choice right up to the point that people and nations make choices the libertarians don't like.
The third reality that Carpenter is ignoring is that the timeline for his analysis doesn't really work. The Baltic States, and the other Vilnius Group members, joined NATO in 2004 (when George W. Bush was president, incidentally, not Barack Obama). If that was really more provocation than Russia could tolerate, why did it take 10 years for that nation to invade Ukraine? And why did it take 18 years for them to invade Ukraine a second time?
In short, the facts don't actually fit Carpenter's conclusions. Sherlock Holmes would be so disappointed with him.
Heh.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Senate/Maps/Mar06.html#item-1
J.A. in Brisbane, QLD, Australia, writes:
An oligarch comes from any region in the former Soviet Union. Otherwise it's just sparkling white corruption.
Re: Why Johnny Can't Code
A 10th anniversary look back at the Raspberry Pi by its creator:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiwm5TMHIy8
TLDR nuggets:
- nicely describes the BASIC PC era, similarly to Dr. Brin's essay (but British)
- exactly nails the watershed when learning to code devolved into sifting eye candy
(timeline shifted from enlightenment to soma addiction)
- the basic concept (Python) was put together in 2006 (same year as WJCC)
- if only they'd asked me, the world would have had a FORTH palm computer instead
(missed it by that much, as agent 86 would put it)
In short, the facts don't actually fit Carpenter's conclusions. Sherlock Holmes would be so disappointed with him."
"It is a capital mistake, Watson, to theorize in advance of data. One begins insensibly to twist facts to fit theories, rather than theories to fit facts."
DD, I always thought the Klingons were the Russians, and the Romulans were the Chinese.
But I take your point, Cold War in Space!
(Given the time period, did you expect the Franco-Prussian War in Space?)
Vaush can be summed up by, Biden is very bad - vote for him, our civilization depends on it. He keeps coming back to the threat of climate change, especially the threat that the consequences will produce entho-nationalist, authoritarian states.
Daniel Duffy:
Larry Hart, in ST TOS the Russians were the Romulans and the Red Chinese were the Klingons.
Sure, but I was thinking specifically of the period in DS9 where the Federation was trying oh so hard to see the Cardassians as reformed to the point they were going to admit them to the Federation. And then Gul Dukat made an alliance with the Dominion and started taking Federation territory.
In retrospect, it seemed torn from today's headlines.
Smurphs:
DD, I always thought the Klingons were the Russians, and the Romulans were the Chinese.
It's not a consistent analogy. It depends which episodes you are watching.
In their initial appearances ("Errand of Mercy" and "Balance of Terror" respectively), the Klingons were more like Mongol warriors and the Romulans like ancient Romans.
In the episodes I'm immediately thinking of which really hit you over the head with the fact that they are allegories ("The Enterprise Incident" and "A Private Little War"), the Romulans were North Korea and the Klingons were either Russia or China (or both) vis a vis Vietnam.
There was an episode whose name I don't remember right now where the Enterprise found a civilization which worshipped a copy of the US Constitution, hitting us over the head with the tribal names Yangs (Yankees) and Comms (Communists). In that one, Spock notes that the planet had something like our Vietnam war, "but the Asiatics won." It seems to me that in the zeitgeist which produced that story, Russia and red China were thought of as an interchangeable whole.
@Jon S,
Your Sherlock Holmes quote was explicitly mentioned in that Electoral-Vote.com article I linked to (though not in the excerpt I quoted).
A blog post, originally from Facebook via Twitter:
The woes of an FSB analyst.
Maybe a piece of Ukrainian info warfare, maybe a genuine whistleblower.
Quoted scidata in my latest FB about that raspberry pi info, thanks.
From Peter Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=721j4RGkmfU
The geopolitics of the Ukraine invasion and what it will do to world wide food prices now that we won't be seeing any crops from what was Europe's Breadbasket.
And fertilizer (40% of the world's potash comes from Russia and Belarus).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsorIQbwVBc
This one focuses on fertilizer with shortage of potash and natural gas prices soaring along with nitrogen fixing fertilizer, and soaring oil prices for farm equipment and food transport.
The basic equation of modern industrial agriculture: About 20 Calories of Petroleum inputs to make 25 Calories of Grain.
Mankind basically eats oil.
So maybe a worldwide version of the Arab Spring?
P.S. One other point.
The discussion of whether to ban imports of oil is moot.
Insurance companies won't allow oil tankers to enter a war zone.
Nobody is picking up Russian oil.
I said:
Spock notes that the planet had something like our Vietnam war, "but the Asiatics won."
I meant like our cold war.
(After all, the Asiatics did win our Vietnam war.)
onward
onward
Oh oh. Canada is the top potash producer and near the top in wheat exports too. Others may soon be fabricating a pretext to invade. Be warned: we will defend our tree sauce deposits, every. square. inch.
You mean every square centimeter.
@Paradoctor,
You mean every square centimetre
Did you read "A World Without Email" by Cal Newport? So many of his thoughts reminded me of that attention management program you used to want to make.
Also, did Mr. Transparency ever comment on that law that would put cameras in classrooms so parents could watch in case teachers ever taught something parents didn't like?
https://www.audacy.com/wbbm780/news/national/new-bill-would-put-cameras-in-every-classroom
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