Saturday, July 29, 2023

Those who would be our new lords and kings - part 2. Plus a note re UFOs.

FIRST A BRIEF NOTE: For weeks I've been parrying online salvos from the "I need to believe!" cult, enraged by my caustic skepticism toward the latest UFO Craze. Although I've spent my whole life examining every conceivable aspect of 'the alien' - from astrophysics and SETI to vastly-varied sci fi ruminations - the standard attack claims that I 'lack imagination.' Riiight.  

For sixty years I've watched these frenzies of wishful illogic erupt, about twice per decade - with all the same mantras and nearly identical 'testimony' by pathetic third-raters who never, ever, ever name-names or show a scintilla of evidence. Hence, I can be forgiven some ennui. Always the same drivel, that thousands of humanity's best and smartest would have studied alien super-tech for eighty years without a single palpable outcome, nor having any reason to keep it secret that we're being buzzed by mischievious space-elves.

 I've pointed at the number of active cameras on Earth, now a million times as many as in the 1950s; yet the images keep getting fuzzier. (Here is my own 'cat-laser' theory about so-called 'tic-tacs.') I've also made it clear that I leave an open slot on my idea shelf for silvery space-jerks buzzing us while breaking every known physical law. A small slot. (In Existence I explore the form of alien contact I think we actually might live to see in our lifetimes.)

But okay, fire away guys. Or wait till I do a full posting about this mania, in a week or two. 

Meanwhile, I promised to finish up a far more important topic. One that's rooted not in space-elf fantasies but a very real human psychosis! One that could end our Enlightenment Experiment... our one and only chance to go out there ourselves. 

To the stars.


== Those who betray the light seek a return of darkness ==

Last time, I addressed two disturbing symptoms of the World Oligarchic Putsch. A dismally stoopid so-called Neo-Monarchy Movement and a surge in apocalyptic frenzy by the aristocrats themselves, building hyper prepper getaways to ride out 'The Event.'

I referred to Douglas Rushkoff's book "Survival of the Richest: Escape Fantasies of the Tech Billionaires." Doug and I have both been asked 'advice' by some of these folks (e.g. how to keep their guards loyal when money is no longer any good). (We both have answers, but decided not to tell.) We do disagree though, on some parts of the diagnosis. 

Rushkoff believes the etiology of this illness is rooted in the tech industry. Because it was new-money cyber-zillionaires asking his advice about The Event, he blames their techno-transcendentalist belief that they can break-and-rebuild anything. But that observation was likely a selection effect, based on which part of the oligarchy overlapped with Douglas Rushkoff's circles. 

Alas, it extends much farther than the relatively harmless techie caste. The same Prepper Mania also courses through larger communities of Old Money, plus casino mafiosi, "ex" commissar oligarchs, petro-sheiks, hedge parasites and inheritance brats around the globe. They just have more discreet habits. Old money vetts their servants and sycophants more carefully, if no less delusionally. And even so, I have been to some of their haunts, as I describe in Existence.

No, it goes far deeper than techno-transcendentalism. Last time I addressed the underlying drive behind all of this, rooted in the harems of kings for 6000 years.


== A younger voice told it better ==


Oh, I’ve confronted this monstrous treason before—romantics who rave that modern, enlightenment values are empty and democracy is fatally flawed. They speak of yearning for kingship, and sometimes promote it in superhero films, or Tolkien nostalgisms or – yes – Star Wars.


And so let me pause to quote from a smarter and more vivid fellow, my younger self, in this excerpt from my nonfiction book: Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood.


Wouldn’t life seem richer, finer if we still had kings? If the guardians of wisdom kept their wonders locked up in high wizard towers, instead of rushing onto PBS or BBC, the way our unseemly scientists do today? Weren’t miracles more exciting when they were doled out by a precious few, instead of commercializing every discovery, bottling and marketing each new marvel to the masses for a dollar ninety-five? Didn’t we stop going to the Moon because it became boring? Just look at how people felt about Princess Diana. No democratically elected public servant was ever so adored. Democracy doesn’t have the same pomp, majesty, or sense of being above accountability. As we saw in Chapter Ten, one of the paramount promoters of the fantasy-mythic tradition, George Lucas, expressed it this way.


There’s a reason why kings built large palaces, sat on thrones and wore rubies all over. There’s a whole social need for that, not to oppress the masses, but to impress the masses and make them proud and allow them to feel good about their culture, their government and their ruler so that they are left feeling that a ruler has the right to rule over them, so that they feel good rather than disgusted about being ruled.


Lucas's yearning makes sense if you remember that arbitrary lords and chiefs did rule us for 99.44% of human existence. Amid the brutally predictable drudgery of everyday life, miracles were awesome, far-away things. Flight was a legendary prerogative of demigods in stirring fables. And a man was meaningless out of context with his king.


It’s only been two hundred years or so – an eyeblink – that “scientific enlightenment” began waging its rebellion against the nearly universal pattern called feudalism, a hierarchic system that ruled our ancestors in every culture that developed both metallurgy and agriculture. Wherever human beings acquired both plows and swords, gangs of large men picked up the latter and took other men’s women and wheat. (Sexist language is meaningfully accurate here; those cultures had no word for “sexism,” it was simply assumed.) They then proceeded to announce rules and “traditions” ensuring that their sons would inherit everything.


Please, try to find even one exception. You won’t succeed. Putting aside cultural superficialities, society on every inhabited continent quickly shaped itself into a pyramid, with a few well-armed bullies at the top, accompanied by some fast talking guys with painted faces or spangled cloaks who curried favor by weaving stories to explain why the bullies should remain on top.


Only something exceptional started happening. Bit by bit – in gradual stages – the elements began taking shape for a new social and intellectual movement, one finally capable of challenging the alliance of warrior lords, priests, bards and secretive magicians. It didn’t happen all at once, but in fitful jerks, sometimes five steps forward and four (or more) steps back.


Timidly at first, guilds and townsfolk rallied together and lent their support to kings, thereby easing oppression by local lords. Long before Aristotle became a tool of the establishment, his rediscovery during the High Middle Ages offered some relief from dour anti-intellectualism. Then renaissance humanism offered a philosophical basis for valuing the individual human as a being worthy in its own right. The Reformation freed sanctity and morality from control by a narrow, self-chosen club; it also legitimized self-betterment through hard work in this world, not the next. Then Galileo and Newton showed that creation’s clockwork can be understood, even appreciated in its elegance, not just endured.


Still, the entire notion of progress remained nebulous and ill-formed. Society’s essential shape – pyramidal, with a narrow elite atop a vast and permanently ignorant peasantry – stayed largely unchanged until a full suite of elements and tools were finally in place, setting the stage for true revolution. A revolution so fundamental, coming with such heady, empowering suddenness, that participants gave it a name filled with hubristic portent. Enlightenment.


The word wasn’t ill-chosen, for it bespoke illuminating a path ahead. Which, in turn, implied the unprecedented notion that “forward” is a direction worth taking, instead of lamenting over a preferred past.



== Back to the present ==


Since I wrote that passage, things have deteriorated to a point where I am getting mail and messages from all over, referring to the 'Holnist' survivalist/prepper/feudalist villains of my novel (and film) The Postman, asking me "Brin, how did you know?"


I answer that this pattern has always been part of human nature. We are all descended from those harems and there will always be humans who yearn to be kings. In America, this manifests in eruptions of pimply ingrates (formerly confederates, now called incels) who think if-only our civilization came crashing down, they could be Top Dogs.


(Sorry. More likely kibble.)


Oh, some of these guys’ll yammer about the price of enlightenment freedoms and progress and accomplishments. For example – as described by George Lucas above - a purported loss of serenity, or unity, or elegance, or sense of belonging, or never-defined 'virtue.'  And sure, I have plenty of my own complaints about millions of noisy, noisome neighbors who recite nonsense incantations from Fox News… 


...or a smaller coterie of symbolism-obsessed fanatics on the other side, who seem daily determined to make liberalism look bad, from within.


And yeah... UFO nuttery.


Still, oh for a time machine! I’d send every romantic to live for a single week in any of those lamented, idealized past times. Even as a king! 


Only, these rabid-frothy loons would not be kings, nor top dogs. As I showed last time, Mencius Moldbug knows that. Instead, he envisions himself—like in the Tablet article—as Machiavelli. A valued factotum and vizier to the top dog.


Except for some inconvenient differences. Like the fact that Machiavelli fought like hell for the Florentine Republic, only hiring out to aristocrats when all was lost. And even then, he helped sneak enlightenment partisans away to northern freedom. And even when he had no choice but to be a lackey, his works slyly planted seeds. 


Oh, and another difference: he had more than three neurons to scrape together.


No, Mr. Yarvin, those of us who know Machiavelli can tell that you are no Machiavelli. Whether there come good kings or bad ones, you’ll not be of use in the era you hope to help bring about. Except as kibble.


 

== The all-too human pattern of sycophancy ==


Okay, this is taking more than the hour I allotted to these dopes. So, let’s wrap up. Did I mention that all humans are delusional? Yeah. And that those who acquire vast wealth and power hug their delusions close, while imposing their uncriticized mistakes on the rest of us? Again, it’s called history.


Alas it gets worse. Not only do the mighty suppress critics and criticism. They surround themselves with flatterers! With sycophants, who feed on table scraps by licking the master’s hand. 


“You’re a genius, sir! No one else could have gathered the wealth and power your now wield! Or – if you inherited much of it – genius runs in families! Certainly, it’s not cheating to manipulate influence and contacts and bribes and blackmail to ensure others can’t compete with you. All great things are accomplished by unitary executives!”


Oh… and …


 “When civilization collapses, we’ll be fine in your Patagonian mountain prepper fortress or undersea redoubt. Never mind all those 100 million nerds and fact profession, who you despise and on whom you waged war. 


“Those professionals - who know bio, nuclear, cyber, nano and all the rest and who know the exact location of every prepper citadel, will never get mad at those who deliberately conspired to bring down the Enlightenment Experiment! They won’t hunt you down, after the Fall that you prepper-kings helped make happen. Never!”


No greater failure of oligarch IQ can be seen than the reflex to embrace sycophancy. Of course we know that truly effective ‘genius’ is in direct proportion to a person’s confident willingness to face discomforting and corrective criticism. But the sponsors of Mencius Moldbug have their self-flattering incantations, like this one from the Tablet agitprop: 


“An all-powerful state is necessary, a sovereign Leviathan of the kind envisioned by Thomas Hobbes, to impose order by force on a level of such absolute authority that it can then disappear from day-to-day life.”


To which I respond: “Name… one… example… of that ever actually happening. 

Ever. 

Even once. 

Ever, at all?”


These fellows used to be gnats at our ankles. Now the would-be Machiavellis have amplifying sponsors. They have become like Howard Beale, in Network, agents for delivering a toxin that destroys a mighty people’s confidence in themselves. 


The ancient pestilence of despotic harem-building oligarchy that made a hell of 6000 years… and that could easily deny our children the stars.


====

====

====


ADDENDUM


I encourage you to have a look at George Orwell’s other works than Animal Farm and Nineteen Eighty-Four. Especially Homage to Catalonia, which eviscerates the way dogmatism so often turns the Left into a circular firing squad.  To be clear, though, Orwell remained lifelong a socialist, because he knew the main enemy of human progress was inheritance-based oligarchy, the central human social disease that the left could only successfully counter by remaining moderate, pragmatic and inclusive.


A different work that’s worth a look, if you have time is Orwell’s Fifty Essays. One of them (#40) offers glimpses into predecessors of our newbie Neo-Monarchists, like Edmund Burke and a contemporary of Wells, James Burnham:  "In his next published book, The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom, James Burnham elaborates … All historical changes finally boil down to the replacement of one ruling class by another. All talk about democracy, liberty, equality, fraternity, all revolutionary movements, all visions of Utopia, or "the classless society", or "the Kingdom of Heaven on earth", are humbug (not necessarily conscious humbug) covering the ambitions of some new class which is elbowing its way into power."


What this illustrates is something I’ve noticed, over the years, worth its own extensive essay-appraisal… that much of conservatism is based upon a mental equivalence of color-blindness, or Flatland 2-D thinking in a 3-dimensional world. These fellows are simply unable to grasp what they cannot see, including even the notion of a Positive Sum Game That a social system can be set up in which these mighty interests are restrained from destructive combat for pinnacle power by:


FIRST breaking up powerful interests into small enough units, so that it is in each unit’s interest to tattle on power abusers. (This – I maintain elsewhere – is also the only likely way to achieve a soft landing re Artificial Intelligence.)


SECOND    recognition by a critical mass of creatively potent individuals that their own self-interest will benefit most from an enlightenment nation. That their resulting longer, happier lives - filled with a cornucopia of toys and advancements and new frontiers and vibrant minds to argue with – will outweigh the dubious and historically lobotomized pleasures of ‘supreme executive’ bossing and harem-keeping.


What’s most ironic about all this is that Adam Smith and the U.S. Founders did grasp this positive sum concept, as did Pericles around 500BCE (see his Funeral Oration in Tacitus).  Concluding that a deliberate flattening of power structures can both maximize competitive creative-productivity and prevent reflexively unsapient harem-gatherers from behaving as Buke, Burnham, Rand and the neo-monarchists describe and admire.


My answer to those who clutch dreams of kingship, rationalizing that there is no viable alternative, is to urge (some of them with high IQs but flatland vision) that they should learn to perceive a third dimension. One that we call up.


220 comments:

1 – 200 of 220   Newer›   Newest»
scidata said...

If it's true that the word 'up' derives from 'Upanishads', then Oppenheimer's fascination with Sanskrit texts makes sense. One of Christopher Hitchens' biggest contributions was his insistence on the importance of studying scripture - not to gain faith, but to gain insight into its hold on the human heart and mind. The current episodes of Apple's FOUNDATION show hints of grasping Asimov's original subplot, but one has to squint pretty hard to see it. At least I do. I'm wondering if there's chess and I'm only seeing checkers.

Paradoctor said...

For those who would retreat to strongholds, Leslie Fish has a song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O68DedIacWM&list=PLGZbuWTzf2mLtcMMhb99VoFGOFPUlY4LN&index=12
"Hello, remember us?"

Unknown said...

Yes, my libertarian USAF Lt. claimed that 'Homage to Catalonia' meant that Orwell had become disillusioned with socialism. I disregarded*. George had grown disillusioned with many socialists, which is a different thing.

Way off topic, but regular to some of what was bandied about in the last posting...

Biden's working to do something that should have been done long ago about the US military's sexual harassment (and worse) problem:

The "revamped military legal system will now put decisions about whether to prosecute sexual assault, rape, and murder allegations in the hands of trained prosecutors rather than military commanders."

Doubt he'll get many mana points out of it, because it's just good government. I personally was asked by a young Intel Lt to escort her back to her tent from our work station after dark when we were deployed to Manas AB, Kyrgyzstan. I suspect I looked angry, but I was angry because she shouldn't have had to.

*Some people, particularly people who recommend Ayn Rand to you, you don't disagree with. You just disregard.

Pappenheimer

Bruce Golden said...

As a famous poet once said, "The Lords are within us, born of sloth and cowardice."

Larry Hart said...

scidata:

I'm wondering if there's chess and I'm only seeing checkers.


I haven't seen the series, but my guess is that it is falling victim to the inevitable mediocrity of the medium.

Dr Manhattan's observation in the 2019 Watchmen sequel, "By definition, don't all relationships end in tragedy?" applies to the relationship between viewer and tv series as well.

NoOne said...

@scidata, At the risk of starting a flamewar, let me just say that I'm deeply disappointed with Apple's Foundation. I'll watch all of it and admire the amount of money sunk into it, but for the love of god, could we have a bit more nuance? Why do I like The Comey Rule and Oppenheimer so much more than Foundation? Because they're damn good.

Paradoctor said...

UFOs? UAPs? They're unknown and unexplained. That's what it says on the label.

Now for something completely different:
Room-temperature ambient superconductors! Made from lead, copper, and phosphorus!

Paradoctor said...

One thing I find charming about the new alleged superconductors, if they survive the concentrated attention of large numbers of scientists, is that they don't work by Cooper pairs, which are weird and quantum enough. No, these go for the quantum-weirdness gusto: they run by tunneling!

Robert said...

let me just say that I'm deeply disappointed with Apple's Foundation

I stopped watching halfway through the first season. Too many differences from the original story, but not in a way that interrogated/enhanced the original story. (Or if they did, they sailed right over my head.)

Alan Brooks said...

People assume that UAPs contain living beings. They might be, for lack of a better description, say electrical poltergeists. As a layman I couldn’t guess; however they might flow from the magnetism in the core of the Earth, rather than coming from off the Earth.
UAPs might be time travelers, for all we know.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin in the main post:

things have deteriorated to a point where I am getting mail and messages from all over, referring to the 'Holnist' survivalist/prepper/feudalist villains of my novel (and film) The Postman, asking me "Brin, how did you know?"

I answer that this pattern has always been part of human nature. We are all descended from those harems and there will always be humans who yearn to be kings.


Your Holnists were indeed feudalists, but they were not kings. At least not hereditary kings. Your General Macklin character at least viewed their movement as a democratic and meritocratic version of feudalism, in which leadership was earned, and "My own sons must kill to become Holnists, or scratch dirt to support those who can."

IIRC, when attempting to entice Gordon to join their side, Macklin even offered the chance to experiment with his own style of governance. Something to the effect of, "You can even try being nice to your vassals if you think you can keep them in line."

Enlightenment techniques applied to feudalism.

Unknown said...

I can imagine a vicious little SF story about several ex-billionaires commiserating around a campfire about being ejected from their various NZ luxury survivalist shelters by their erstwhile minions After Event. Possibly another billionaire is on the main course.

Pappenheimer

P.S. and O.T.: Biden just put an executive order into effect amending the UCMJ - it "...transfers key decision-making authorities from commanders to specialized, independent military prosecutors in cases of sexual assault, domestic violence, murder, and other serious offenses..." This is outstanding good government, long overdue, and he will likely not get an ounce of credit for it.

Unknown said...

Macklin's little system would likely, if he had won, lasted no more than a generation before his surviving son, having inhumed any other progeny in a Stardust-style runoff, eliminated that little requirement for HIS son.

Pappenheimer

Being nice to your vassals works - Confucius* recommended it both morally and functionally, Bismarck institutionalized it. All you have to do is not want every possible speck of wealth you can squeeze out of your peasants. That idea, that it's good to leave something on the table, is anathema to the libertarian techbro heart. And the sociopathic mind. But I repeat myself...

*Kǒng Fūzǐ, apparently, in Pinyin. Must update my brain...

David Brin said...


LH yeah Macklin was the kind of villain who tries to preen “I’m no hypocrite!”

Anonymous said...

Jonah Goldberg's last good book, Suicide of the West, is a good study of "The Miracle" of the ending of tribalism and the rise of The Enlightenment. I think the main factors in weird England that enabled this were the creation of the limited liability joint stock corporation and the invention of the patent.

Now everybody could be a stockholder and everybody's inventions could be sold!

Tacitus said...

My assumption is that the recent Congressional interest in UFOs is nonsense. Back when we had actual journalism this time of year was called The Silly Season. People were off enjoying themselves and you tossed out some foolish stuff in a combination of pre-digital click bait and just having a bit of fun. There was a good Sci Fi story by Kornbluth called The Silly Season. Look it up.

Also this is a shiny object to distract us from things that would be far more worthy of our attention. We may - no, we do - differ on what those other things are.

I am perfectly willing to accept that aliens look in on us from time to time. Just not willing to accept the long string of coincidence that would be necessary for Flying Saucers to be frequently "sighted" but never proven. I have friends doing amateur skywatch stuff that is more advanced than anything in existence a few decades ago. And are these LGMs so godlike that they never crash a ship, never drop the equivalent of a Space McNuggets wrapper?

Tacitus

Larry Hart said...

Pappenheimer:

Macklin's little system would likely, if he had won, lasted no more than a generation...


I wasn't cheering for him or anything. I was complimenting our host for creating three-dimensional villains who actually had some though-provoking ideas. As opposed to the (comics version) Red Skull who could say things like, "Wherever there was tyranny, ruthlessness, injustice, the Red Skull was there, preying on the weak and helpless!"


Being nice to your vassals works - Confucius* recommended it both morally and functionally, Bismarck institutionalized it. All you have to do is not want every possible speck of wealth you can squeeze out of your peasants.


The monsters who are never satisfied inevitably make a critical mass of enemies with nothing to lose.

Baron Harkonnen actually tried to make use of this phenomenon, setting up Beast Rabban with the double task of extracting every bit of wealth he could from the population of Arrakis and making himself so despised that the people would see his successor, Feyd-Rautha as a savior.


*Kǒng Fūzǐ, apparently, in Pinyin. Must update my brain...


Neither Moses, Jesus, nor even Eve (Chava in the Hebrew) were actually named those things. For that, I trot out Asimov, "We've known for centuries that 'oxygen' is a misnomer, but what can you do?"

Larry Hart said...

Tacitus:

Also this is a shiny object to distract us from things that would be far more worthy of our attention. We may - no, we do - differ on what those other things are.


Do we differ on who is performing the distractions?


I am perfectly willing to accept that aliens look in on us from time to time. Just not willing to accept the long string of coincidence that would be necessary for Flying Saucers to be frequently "sighted" but never proven.


I feel essentially the same about the possibility of alien visitation as I do about the possibility of supernatural entities. I can't prove or disprove either way, but until I have some evidence that such entities affect my life in some way that matters, I choose to not consider the question in my decisions. It's not so much "I don't believe," as "I see no reason to care (other than the enjoyment of speculative fiction)."

David Brin said...

Tacitus, I agree with your general remark on the implausibility of 99% of UFO scenarios.

Heinlein forcasted The Crazy Years… followed by a self-coup putsch by radical religious rightwingers under Nehemia Scudder. I’m sure you’ve seen this but you need to be reminded of the two paragraphs from RAH that I cite here. We are living it.

http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2017/03/looking-back-at-heinleins-future.html

Your need to deride all of modern journalism is part of the right’s narrative to justify all out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. The oligarchs and their puppets cannot afford to lose the 2 or 3 million Republicans like you, who can see that the party has gone insane and evil...

... but cling to old loyalties with “Liberals are worse, Liberals are worse! And Journalism is dead!!!!!”

reason said...

David - I noticed this line: "FIRST breaking up powerful interests into small enough units, so that it is in each unit’s interest to tattle on power abusers."

And that is EXACTLY why I think there should be no billionaires. I couldn't have put it better. Nobody should have that much unaccountable power.

Tacitus said...

David

I should have been more clear. By Journalism I meant the old school newspaper tradition of Silly Season. Newspapers are dead. Technology, not politics, killed them off.

I do take exception to some of the professions that you lump together as Fact Using. But I'm not in a political mood today.

Tacitus

duncan cairncross said...

Alien visitors

For nearly 2 billion years there was "simple life" on earth before "complex life" - cells with nucleuses - evolved

The earth must have had ZERO "visitors" during that huge period

David Brin said...

Duncan I have a story "Fortitude" in which are all descended from the fecal waste dumped by alien visitors a billion years ago.

Tacitus list the professions hated-on by rightist media.They... and universities etc... are the real enemies, not races or genders. Why? Many of them have many flaws, in general or many particulars. But all tend to respond to cult incantations with "the facts do not support that assertion, sir.'

Tacitus said...

David

To greater or lesser extents Law, Medicine, Academia and Civil Service have been and are being influenced by politics. This is not a new phenomena. You hold up Platonic Ideals. With them I have no issue. With real humans whose tenure, funding, social status can be dependent on fealty to a particular political faction (either or any btw), it gets less Ideal quickly.

Tacitus

Larry Hart said...

@Tacitus,

It seems to me that civil service is not so much influenced by politics as it is threatened with influence by politics by Republicans because it has not been sufficiently influenced by their brand of politics.

Trump has stated that if re-elected, he will replace the civil service with political appointees. Has anything like this been done by the Democrats? Where is a Democratic equivalent of Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre?

Alfred Differ said...

I have a few business related news channels I keep on a favs list so I can bounce around while watching TV during the day. Sometimes they say things that move stock prices. Most times they notice things that move prices before I do. Normally I keep the TV muted and CC on.

———

On this list is a business channel from FOX. It is only occasionally about business and often drifts and even steers into politics. Very often I skip right over them because I'm interested in market momentum.

The other day I stopped, though, and watched a small segment where they were reporting that many college towns had shifted blue. The first thought in my head was "Well DUH!", but I was curious to see how they reported it. Well… according to them this is reasonably recent and a bad thing because right along with this stunning development they reported that the younger generation no longer sees America a a great place. This other fact wasn't from a related poll about life in those newly blue cities and towns. It was simply reported in the same story as if there was a correlation… which of course they did not state or deny.

Without specifically saying that colleges were leading the younger generation into distrust of "America" that was the gist of the story. Each of the three talking heads was given a moment to say their supporting piece and then they moved to the next story. Professors were leading your kids away from patriotic belief.

Anyone with an analytical mind would've noticed the story pulled at several emotional strings but didn't offer real supporting evidence. Sure… college towns have drifted blue. No kidding. Sure… the youngsters around us are unhappy with what's been going on lately. No f@$%ing kidding. Blame the professors! Say what?!

———

Our host has pointed out several times that FOX is engaged in a war against the smartypants. I think he is correct and that little story I watched was a propaganda piece. It wasn't a very good one, but it wasn't aimed at someone like me. I don't have a kid I could pull from such colleges. I have a few brain cells and some training in rhetoric and analysis.

But yes. There is a war underway.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

Sure… the youngsters around us are unhappy with what's been going on lately. No f@$%ing kidding. Blame the professors! Say what?!


Trump supporters interviewed in diners are also unhappy with what's been going on lately. Y'know, the DOJ being weaponized against Trump, and social media discriminating against conservatives. They also don't see America as a great place--it needs to be made great again. Somehow, it's patriotic when conservatives are not happy with the direction they perceive the country to be going. But, liberal discontent is treasonous.

Supposedly, some godawful percentage of both Republicans and Democrats are convinced that the country is headed for civil war. This statistic is used to demonstrated that both sides are equally responsible for ginning up the anger. I think it more likely that what Democrats are saying in those polls is that they expect to be attacked soon by the right wing.

Robert said...

I can imagine a vicious little SF story about several ex-billionaires commiserating around a campfire about being ejected from their various NZ luxury survivalist shelters by their erstwhile minions After Event. Possibly another billionaire is on the main course.

Cory Doctorow wrote something on that theme. I believe it's one of the novellas in his collection Radicalized.

David Brin said...


Alfred: “they reported that the younger generation no longer sees America a a great place.”

I see this among our kids’ friends. It saddens me since EVERY VALUE they recite to justify it was a value invented and taught to them by this mighty experiment, which brough the world its greatest era of peace and progress..


Tacitus: “To greater or lesser extents Law, Medicine, Academia and Civil Service have been and are being influenced by politics.”

Yes, though you were more accurate with ‘lesser’. And isn’t the same VASTLY more true of the Casino mafiosi, carbon barons, hedge parasites, tabloid goebbolses, slumlords, murder sheiks, “ex” commissars and inheritance brats who own your ‘movement’?

All the fact professions operate under rules of (1) scattering authority widely and (2) pitting the profession’s elites against each other. Each of them boil with reciprocal competition by rivals eager to pounce on revealed mistakes.

Yes there are whole building on most campuses that are rife with ‘woke-ist’ yammerers. Anyone who reads Orwell knows the left is dangerous, And that is WHY we must defeat the confederacy now, before that fetid wing of liberalism takes over the movement, as your insane -corrupt jerks have taken over US conservatism.

(And notice that the focus never NEVER turns the spotlights of paranoia on THOSE power centers... the ones that always crushed freedom and ruled BADLY for 6000 years. Can you notice well enough to compare nerd-dissing events to those bashing billionaire cheat lords?)

Anyway, for now, I invite you to throw darts at a map of ANY university in America and go to randomly chosen doors. I will BET MY HOUSE that you’ll find those woke-bully types are a tiny minority. And you can start at Brandeis and Radcliffe.
I mean it. The very standards by which you CLAIM the fact professions are corrupted are the very same standards they created! And that they mostly live by. Moreover you know that any ACTUAL TEST of my assertion would demolish the incantations the oligarchy uses to attack universities.

They attack them for one reason. After 30 years of supply side tax grifts, THEY ALREADY HAVE ALL THE MONEY. But they don’t yet have all the power. What’s blocking their way is… nerds.

Alan Brooks said...

Agreed. I grew up in a Goodfella area, and one didn’t look sideways at their capos and soldiers. They were to be treated with the same deference as the police.

Larry Hart said...

the obvious...

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Jul31-1.html

Trump's appeal isn't on the issues. It is due to his mean, venal, nasty, bullying style. One New Hampshire voter the Times interviewed said of Trump: "He might say mean things and make all the men cry because all the men are wearing your wife's underpants and you can't be a man anymore." That really says it all. The undertone here is that tough-talking straight white Christian men have a God-given right to run the country and everybody else should buzz off and get out of the way so men can be real men again. Trump gets that. The Yale and Harvard Law-educated DeSantis doesn't give off the vibe of being a "real man." All his talk about "wokeness" probably makes it worse. Why is he talking about this crazy stuff nobody understands when men can't be men anymore?

Darrell E said...

Offhand I can't remember who said this, but I remember the phrase because I wished I had made the point myself. The unremembered author was commenting on his extensive reading of theology and said that the biggest mistake he saw common among theologians was that they "mistake logical possibilities for probabilities."

I think that is very, very true. But theologians aren't the only ones that do that. Seems to me like it is part of the basic human cognitive toolkit. When the data doesn't readily support a strongly held belief contrive rationalizations that allow you to continue to logically support your strongly held belief. It's one of those major human failings that institutions like modern science are intended to account for.

Showing how cynical I've become, I'd amend that observation to point out that it's not always a mistake. Not by a long shot. It's often people intentionally fooling others and even intentionally fooling themselves.

Joel G said...

I'm amazed that material science labs turned on a dime including garage labs (democratized) and started trying to replicate it (or parts).

https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1685641634892128256

The origin story has all the makings of a shit show. I now follow folks trying to refine phosphorus or purifying copper with zero knowledge to follow what they're doing.

Clearly Twitter was made for this.
Or X.

But talking about the monarchists is good too.

Larry Hart said...

Darrell E:

... they "mistake logical possibilities for probabilities."


That's why Dr Brin's competitive arenas are so important. It's not enough to have a theory about what might be possible. The theory has to plausibly fit the known facts. A court case isn't won because one side has an argument--both sides always have one. The case is won on which side's argument is believable.


It's often people intentionally fooling others and even intentionally fooling themselves.


When I first read 1984, I was a high school junior, and the titular year was still in the future. At the time, I did not believe that doublethink was really possible. How could someone willingly fool themselves when they would know that that's what they're doing?

Experience shows me that it is not only possible, but common. We've all heard how you can't convince someone of something that interferes with his paycheck. But I think religion is responsible for a lot of that kind of "thinking." It's near impossible for someone to consider a conclusion from the facts when even entertaining that line of thought might condemn him to eternal hellfire.

Maybe more than all of that, though, is the "Emperor's New Clothes" thing. Once convinced that only stupid/demon-possessed/communist people would believe a certain thing, you're just not going to allow yourself to entertain the thought. The analogue to "homosexual panic".

David Brin said...

"-The undertone here is that tough-talking straight white Christian men have a God-given right to run the country "

And yet they are ALWAYS weenie cowards who flee from demands for manly wagers with escrowed stakes, adjudicated by senior retired military officers.

They flee ALWAYS, amid the smoking ruin of their macho...

...and NOT ONE democrat as the wit to use that.

David said...

@larry A few months ago, at an international journalism summit in Italy, after a few glasses of wine, the conversation with Eastern European journalists suddenly Got Real.

"Is the United States really headed towards a civil war," I was asked.

I noted the sudden quiet. The deep sense of panic came out in the tone of voice the question was asked in; this was not a casual "ha-ha isn't politics gross these days" query. These folks come from countries where civil war has raged within the last 30 years. They look to the U.S. as the American Dream that so many on the right pay lip service too (but hate in reality).

"No, I don't think so," I said slowly. "Not because Americans are somehow smart or better, but basically because we're all too lazy. A hundred million overweight suburbanites are not going to rouse themselves off their couches and march off to war against each other.

"Much more likely is that we descend into a Northern Ireland-type situation. A hard core of really angry assholes bomb and shoot and make life miserable for the rest of us. But no big set-piece battles like Gettysburg or Antietam, where a couple hundred thousand guys all line up and shoot at each other."

Despite all the bluster from the likes of Marjorie Trash Greene, or Ammon Bundy, or Tucker Carlson, etc. etc., I am 99% certain that giant armies of motivated, disciplined right-wingers are going to assemble to start ethnically (intellectually?) cleansing the aforementioned Blue College Towns.

At least, not in the next 10 years.

Give us another banking system meltdown, one where the dollar spirals into devaluation, coupled with a dozen Cat-5 hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast per month, and yeah, maybe the level of misery will rise to the point where some kind of mass movement might find enough adherents to form a critical mass.

Larry Hart said...

I know I keep beating on this, but I am re-reading C.S. Lewis's That Hideous Strength for the third--maybe fourth--time, and this aspect of the "these kids today" complaint always amazes me.

The following, spoken by the character Mother Dimble is Lewis by proxy (in 1946) asserting that modern marriage has lost its allure to the young people who (mistakenly) believe the institution to be a partnership between equals, having little to do with either God or procreation.


"Well, perhaps I'm unfair. Things were easier for us. We were brought up on stories with happy endings and on the Prayer Book. We always intended to love, honour, and obey, and we had figures and we wore petticoats and we liked waltzes..."


What amuses me is that this would be the same complaint that my parents' generation had about mine in the 1960s "generation gap", as if this was understood by their generation but not ours. Yet, my parents were married a good ten years after 1946. And the older generation of the immediate post-war apparently had the same complaint about the "youngsters" of that day, who were slightly older than my parents. Not only that, but the Mother Dimble character--in her 50s or 60s in 1946--would have been born or come of age around the time that Ibsen was already writing about the difference between the idea and the reality of traditional marriage roles during the late Victorian age.

Nothing new under the sun, apparently.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

Give us another banking system meltdown, one where the dollar spirals into devaluation, coupled with a dozen Cat-5 hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast per month, and yeah, maybe the level of misery will rise to the point where some kind of mass movement might find enough adherents to form a critical mass.


So first of all, I expect that any new US civil war, whether hot or IRA-style, will begin with right-wingers instigating terror and violence followed by the rest of the populating defending against them. I can't imagine any plausible scenario where a war is begun by liberals.

Secondly, if such a war comes about because of fear and anger resulting from the scenarios you describe above, it will be because of the Republicans' own policies or intransigence. One might even cynically suspect that their policies (or lack thereof) on climate change, guns, and the economy might be purposely designed to cause a civil war.

Alan Brooks said...

Why is it so many of the sane like to believe in LGMs (Little Green Men)?
Same reason for all the conspiracy theories: an escape from the mundane.
Just say Oswald acted alone; it’s more exciting to think that someone else was involved—even Helen Keller or Shirley Temple.
Elvis Is Alive, implying a coverup, is more exciting than the reality of a junkie dying on his bathroom floor.
There’re thousands of conspiracy theories, enough to tickle anyone’s bored fancy. LGMs are more exciting than non-biological apparitions of unknown origin.

Larry Hart said...

Alan Brooks:

Elvis Is Alive, implying a coverup, is more exciting than the reality of a junkie dying on his bathroom floor.


Don't forget my favorite. They saved Hitler's brain.

David said...

@Larry

Secondly, if such a war comes about because of fear and anger resulting from the scenarios you describe above, it will be because of the Republicans' own policies or intransigence. One might even cynically suspect that their policies (or lack thereof) on climate change, guns, and the economy might be purposely designed to cause a civil war.

You've just described the "Accelerationists" - those charming little libertarian/neo-nazi freaks who shoot at electrical transformer yards or try to incite Americans into murdering each other. It's becoming more explicit in the last few years; I saw a recent news article about the MAGA mob, talking about the tendency amongst the red-hatted cultists to want Trump to "burn it all down" so they can arise from the ashes to build their perfect fantasyworld.

A feature of the vast majority of these useful idiots (because, make no mistake, they are egged on by the ex-Soviets & CCP) is that they have never in their lives really visited or had to operate in a country riven by civil war, economic collapse, and mass starvation. Their attitudes on what happens should civilization collapse are Hollywood montages, akin to the segments in movies where the hero starts out as a doughy weakling, bench presses a few times, runs up a hill, and in 30 seconds is a ripped bodybuilder.

In their dimwit imaginings, they are the tanned, muscular John Rambo. Never the frightened, confused guy standing atop the capitol steps, spattered with blood, wondering WTF he and his buddies just did, watching the Bradley IFVs pull up ...

As Dr. Brin says here, they will be kibble.

David Brin said...

Good perspective "David"/. Indeed, I expect McVeighs in 2024, as the confederate coalition collapses and they lose political power. I hope the FBI has infiltrated well.

Still, I recommend two "new civil war" novels;

THEARS OF ABRAHAM
and
OUR WAR.

Oswald acted alone... probably surprising the conspirators who egged him on. Jack Ruby had to silence him.
For the sake of the Godfathers.

David said...

Dangit. The comment about should say that I am "certain that armed right-wingers are NOT going to assemble".

Look, we all are seeing what happens when the Jan. 6 insurrectionists are tracked down to their houses. Do they go out in a blaze of glory, screaming "Trump forever!" whilst loosing a hail of AR-15 bullets at the SWAT teams?

No. No, they are not.

Instead, they meekly let the deputies snap the cuffs on and trudge out to the paddy wagon, and then go on social media and whine about how bad jail food is.

These are not shock troops. They are bullies. Tons of courage when in big groups that outnumber their opponents.

Pants-pooping cowards with no stomach for standing up for the principles when in smaller groups.

This is not to say that they are not dangerous. They very much are; bullies love to gang up and get violent on those who cannot fight back. But when these punks face resistance, they turn cower & whine.

Alfred Differ said...

We aren't headed for a hot civil war or even an IRA-style resistance. It's WAY too easy for us to observe each other and spot dangers, so the first bunch who tries will will be ID'd and dealt with.

The most likely scenario (in my not so humble opinion) in our near future is the break up of a major political party. We haven't done that since just before our Civil War… because it's really hard to do. Factions split and move often (Dixiecrats moved to the GOP starting a couple generations ago), but they leave a vacuum quickly filled by some other faction. For example, the California Republican Party isn't anything like it was 50 years ago when they could run Presidential candidates… and win.

Either the GOP will fracture and reform with other factions or it will fragment and a new party emerge under a different name. That is what I think is most likely. There will be a lot of turmoil around the event, but not a hot civil war. Maybe a few burnt cities, but we'll cope.

David Brin said...

"We aren't headed for a hot civil war or even an IRA-style resistance."

No but the worst of the Oath-Keeper (actually breakers) types have gone offline, organizing on small scale, with McVeigh as their model. Next year, don't go anywhere in the second half of April.

I am done waiting for 'sane republicans' to gather the guts to offshoot. They made their bed by amplifying gerrymandering and every other trick that resulted in oligarch-controlled populist radical elements dominating the RP, utterly.

If the Romney types truly did find their guts and break away, the oligarchs, seeing their tool, the RP dissolve, would order John Roberts to suddenly veer and ban gerrymandering etc so that the RP could be salvaged as a useful entity guarding the privileges of aristocracy.

But the oligarchic putsch is way to far along for any thought of a commensal style conservatism. They have their Oppidum-built prepper Morlock bunkers and want to try them out.

scidata said...

Re: Morlock bunkers

Anyone who's been paying attention knows that the only sure bet for survival is civilization. Scientific breakthroughs like mRNA vaccines don't happen in prepper bunkers, but scary new strains and variants do.

Alfred Differ said...

The only oath breaker types that give me concerned are the ones with actual military training or intelligence training. The cosplay folks are likely to eliminate themselves or leave the door wide open to internal observation.


Joel G,

Clearly Twitter was made for this.

Heh. No. It's far older than that.
Twitter just made it easier to see them.

I had a couple of rocket propulsion friends who wanted to make a difference. They wound up learning some chemistry on their own (mostly) and books where they could get them. One was a fan of zinc-sulfur rockets, but knew they didn't have the Isp to make it. The other was a fan of hydrogen peroxide and helped convince the first to learn how to distill the stuff.

My first friend set fire to himself (third degree burns over much of his body) and survived for a couple of weeks before the stress finally killed him.

The second managed to survive because his still blew when he wasn't at home. His local fire department noticed something dripping out of the trailer that looked like water but set the leaves and trash on fire immediately... and called the HazMat team. So while he survived it, he got stuck with a test and cleanup bill that bankrupted him.

I've got a story or two of my own, but the moral of the lessons is to leave the chemistry* to the professionals. Anyone wanting to do it should take the time to be trained BY a professional. The world doesn't need anymore weeping mothers.


* Especially phosphorus.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

It's WAY too easy for us to observe each other and spot dangers, so the first bunch who tries will will be ID'd and dealt with.


The danger is if the police or the national guard or the army are on their side. Like Krystalnacht in 1938 Germany.

A.F. Rey said...

Morlock bunkers

Reminds me of the Netflix series Love, Death + Robots, season 3, episode 1, "Three Robots: Exit Strategies," written by John Scalzi. All those preppers and rich survivalist didn't fare so well in that robot apocalypse, either.

Although I wouldn't say they exactly ended up as dog kibble... ;)

David said...

@alfred

I've got a story or two of my own, but the moral of the lessons is to leave the chemistry* to the professionals. Anyone wanting to do it should take the time to be trained BY a professional. The world doesn't need anymore weeping mothers.

I am reminded by the humor and, for those who have even a nodding acquaintance with Things What Go Boom, the stomach-clenching terror contained in the posts of Derek Lowe, such as: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/things-i-won-t-work-dioxygen-difluoride

"FOOF is only stable at low temperatures; you'll never get close to RT with the stuff without it tearing itself to pieces. I've seen one reference to storing it as a solid at 90 Kelvin for later use, but that paper, a 1962 effort from A. G. Streng of Temple University, is deeply alarming in several ways. Not only did Streng prepare multiple batches of dioxygen difluoride and keep it around, he was apparently charged with finding out what it did to things. All sorts of things. One damn thing after another, actually [...] I ran out of vulgar expletives after the second page. A. G. Streng, folks, absolutely takes the corrosive exploding cake, and I have to tip my asbestos-lined titanium hat to him [...]

"The sulfur chemistry of FOOF remains unexplored, so if you feel like whipping up a batch of Satan's kimchi, go right ahead."

Years ago, chatting with LAPD bomb squad about the dangers of chemical weapons just after 9/11, the alarmingly calm guy basically said that they could tell what page of the various weapons-making manuals the guys out in the Inland Empire were on by how they had blown themselves up.

"Stupid criminals are a nuisance. Smart criminals are A Problem."

David said...

Whenever I find myself getting a bit overwrought about the violent rhetoric that is the result of legions of isolated, rage-filled right-wingers egging each other on via social media, I remind myself of the calm competence of educated professionals.

Yes, Dr. Brin, there is a war on knowledge & competence, waged by the unimaginably wealthy for reasons of obsessive-compulsive wealth hoarding that are ugly & awful. It drives me batty too, and in my dark moments, I wonder if the American experiment is going to survive this sustained immersion in corrosive ignorance & hate.

Then I remember the laconic chemists, EOD & bomb squad guys who say things like, "Welp. Looks like this guy encountered what we in the business like to call: 'A surprise.' "

It makes me feel better.

Unknown said...

Alfred,

Yikes about your friends.

The Rivers of London urban fantasy series makes the point that vampires may be allergic to sunlight and werewolves to silver, but everything's allergic to Willie Pete. (Come to think of it, I used the same trope in my fantasy story...)

Pappenheimer

P.S. Just as in the 1860's, I suspect that the people pushing for a new 'civil war' don't expect anything but pro forma opposition. They prefer not to notice that they will be outnumbered, or they believe they the US military will uniformly side with them. After all, the other side is just arugula-smoking liberals. How this jibes with the terrifying shock troops of Antifa mystifies me.

Larry Hart said...

If anyone is interested, I posted about C.S. Lewis a bit above, and the post temporarily disappeared, but this time instead of posting it again and again, I just waited to see if it would resurrect like Jesus.

And it did.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

The worst of the Oath-Keeper (actually breakers) types


I'm sure you know this, but other readers may not. The oath that the oath-keepers take is not to the United States, but to some ideal of Christian nationalism. The swear to force their wives to obey, and to defend their community from secular humanists and stuff like that.

David Brin said...

Alfred has so many interesting stories that I suspect he's a group entity... only one whose IQ is NOT divided by the # of members... but maybe kinda multiplied. By something greater than 1?

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

I suspect he's a group entity.


Dave Sim used to assert--and I'm with him on this--that we're all a collection of entities. He used to represent his internal dialogue as a parliament, with the "honourable members" all shouting "Hear, hear!" and the like while vying for the floor.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

but maybe kinda multiplied. By something greater than 1?


The number ten raised almost literally to the power of infinity!

David Brin said...

My poor Krell.

Robert said...

The Rivers of London urban fantasy series

Speaking of which, the latest novella("Winter's Gift") is set in Wisconsin. And is pretty good, as expected.

Robert said...

Dave Sim used to assert--and I'm with him on this--that we're all a collection of entities. He used to represent his internal dialogue as a parliament, with the "honourable members" all shouting "Hear, hear!" and the like while vying for the floor.

Cohen and Stewart used this idea in their excellent book Figments of Reality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figments_of_Reality

It also shows up in Julian Jaynes' 1977 book The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind, which Harry Turtledove played with in his excellent fantasy novel Between the Rivers. (Good novel, outdated non-fiction book.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Origin_of_Consciousness_in_the_Breakdown_of_the_Bicameral_Mind

Tony Fisk said...

Looking at the Wikipedia entries, FOOF sounds even worse than ClF3. It has no current applications, although it has been used to make plutonium hexafluoride, if you ever feel the need...

Tony Fisk said...

Actually, David refers in passing to people being a collection of entities in "Startide Rising".

Tony Fisk said...

Oh dear. It appears they've accidentally lost contact with Voyager 2.
... but they seem breezily confident they'll get back in touch with it, sooner or later. October, if not before.

David Brin said...

"Actually, David refers in passing to people being a collection of entities in "Startide Rising"."

And in EARTH. And SUNDIVER.

Robert, TACITUS is our Wisconsin expert, if not always wisely. He does know a lot.

Oh, Julian Jaynes was brilliant fun! But never "nonfiction."

Long live V'ger2!

Alfred Differ said...

While I enjoy role-playing games and the effort it takes to create a more than a one-dimensional character, I am not (yet) multiple people let alone a crowd willing to talk to itself. 8)

What I AM is in my early 60's and my experiences are the result of a long ago decision not to regret anything on my deathbed. I don't know if it will actually happen that way (last time was just a close call), but at least I've done a few things.

If life zips by you too fast, try doing things outside your comfort envelope. It's astonishing how much slower the clock seems to tick... and how many stories you'll accrete.

------

@David, (the other one)

I can't imagine why anyone wants to mess with FOOF, but chemists can be an odd lot at times. Especially the organics guys.

I was about 18 when I knew a guy working on for a Vegas fire department who spent some time learning chemistry. He had all sorts of books including ones your LAPD bomb squad people know. He showed me the recipe for making nitroglycerin in the Anarchist's Cookbook... and then another one from a bigger tome that contained all the safety requirements. Then he showed me some he made. He told me essentially the same story about how amateurs remove themselves from the field and his paramedics just show up with mops and hoses. [He also showed me a thing or two about phosphorus that convinced me not to mess with it.]

Why would a fireman teach a kid like me all that? He wanted me to survive. It mostly worked. I've only really been a danger to the people around me and that came to an end when my son began to grow up. One side effect, though, is that I know how useless guns will be in the next hot civil war phase for offensive action. Drones change everything.

Alan Brooks said...

The majority appear to think UAPs are alive, or contain living things—or are from biological origin.

Alan Brooks said...

Hominid version of a Portuguese Man O’ War?

Tony Fisk said...

@Alan Brooks without wishing to provide spoilers, shall we just say that there's a story about that, which might influence the 'majority's' opinion.

scidata said...

Agree about the deathbed thing. Last year I floated an idea to run a few cycles on Voyager as a publicity generator for a distributed computing outfit (not mine). It met with initial enthusiasm, but quickly got shut down somewhere way above my pay grade.

It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare.
It is because we do not dare that they are difficult.
- Seneca (caveat: he saw potential in Nero)

Darrell E said...

I agree that daring is a must. But I'm a big fan of incremental daring. A little step over the limit, then another, then another, and so on. Not one big leap. Too many broken bones that way.

An example. I friend and I are both pretty good motorcyclists. Always the ones that everyone else is targeting to try and beat. He takes big leaps and often excels quicker than I do. Meaning on a new track or new stretch of mountain road he quickly reaches best performance. Meanwhile, I'm a little more incremental. I take a little more time but do eventually match him, or on rare occasion surpass him. The cost? I've got no serious injuries from riding while he's got numerous broken bones, pins and plates.

But I do think that sometimes it's worth the risk to take a big leap. But it's really hard to figure out which ones will turn out to be worth it beforehand.

Tacitus said...

Regards "Winter's Gift" I could only find a short "teaser". It suggests paranormal hijinks when a tornado flattens a northern Wisconsin town in bitterly cold winter. Chilly mystery ensues.

Well, since Midwestern tornados essentially never happen in winter I guess you'd have to invoke the paranormal. Don't expect a Brit to know my little patch all that well.

Oddly, one of my UK pals is coming over in October. I've been thinking long and hard on how to show somebody whose view of America is centered on the Hollywood/BBC images of NYC and LA what America is really like. I really should extend the offer to some of my friends who rely on CNN.....

Tacitus

Lena said...

Dr. Brin,

Sorry it's taken me a couple days to get back. You had a lot of interesting points, which all point to the inherent complexity of living with humans, and cautions against falling into the Ludic Fallacy. Lots of good stuff to mull over. As Gould once said, God and the Devil are both in the details.

PSB: The whole gender/sex matter is colored by:

1. mass dimorphism among humans leads to a modest 'harem size' of 1.3. About the scale that chiefs in known tribes had a 2nd wife. So, later expansions of that number happened after size mattered less than weapons.


- Are you referring to firearms? Up until that point, the dimorphism in body mass still mattered in terms of wielding hand weapons and projectile weapons. That would mean we would only have a few centuries, which in relatively long-lived humans would not have a huge impact on the gene pool. And that says nothing about how the meme pool began to change. Once firearms became commonplace, average women could defend themselves from men, but that transition is still far from complete. Give it a couple million years, baring genetic engineering.


2, As shown here https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/neoteny1.html - Human females show far more signs of PHYSICAL sexual selection, being far more profoundly changed in appearance from the Ape baseline than males are. That means a LOT! Yet no one (but me) talks about the blatant fact that women with beards find it hard to reproduce. This implies a severe shift in choice-power, which is consistent with #1.

- Having the female half of the species the more divergent suggests that they were the ones being selected, not the other way around, as seen most clearly in birds. In many small-scale cultures, hooking up tended to be a matter of mutual attraction, but there are also those where violent patriarchy was more the norm. Where mating and child-rearing are concerned, humans show some of the characteristics of tournament species and some of pair-bonded species - they are fundamentally confused and variable.

- Bearded women, like beardless men, have difficulty reproducing because of antagonistic hormones, whose base levels in humans of both sexes are highly variable. Then may also not be selected as mates, but even when they are, they have lower fertility. In small-scale societies where sex roles are not so rigid, they would still have trouble finding mates because people would assume they would not be sufficiently fertile. 

3. And yet human females are able to flamboyantly enjoy sex. This seems to imply retention of reward-choice. (In that paper I posit two-way selection may have led to many human traits, including runaway brains.)
- Old Charlie Darwin suggested that mate choice may have been a far more important force than natural selection in humans once they had reached a level of encephalization that dramatically reduced the amount of time they had to spend on subsistence. Runaway brains are better for singing serenades, painting flattering portraits, and whispering sweet nothings. Bonobos suggest what this might have looked like at an earlier stage. But then, so do baboons, on the uglier, higher T side of life.

Cont.

Lena said...

Cont.d


4. Males may prefer fecund females, but are known to f anything that moves. But after the arrival of kings and such, there were often many who had no mating options and this drive would turn elsehwere.


- True. It also drives quite a lot of violence. Think about the 7:1 M/F ratio in Spain on the eve of the Conquista. However, the presence of bisexual behavior in h/g societies where there are no kings and no harems shows that the instinct goes back before the existence of such social hierarchies. That and anywhere you see all-male occupations or sodalities you get M/M sexuality, which argues for the idea that bisexual instincts help to reduce interpersonal conflicts.


5. Having said that, let's posit that males are dangerous, smelly, dangerous, hairy and dangerous. Very few males or females wish to be grabbed by one without deliberated choice. Some kinds of homophobia (some) are understandable in that context. You double check if gay guys seek to run a cub scout pack, no more or less than than you want to validate heteros 
seeking to mentor a pack of girl scouts. Not kneejerk, just a second look.


- Sensible precautions. Unfortunately, few people are that sensible, and as Ernst Mayr said, few people truly see each other as individuals more than as types. That includes their own assessments of themselves, which is probbaly why the whole rest of the Animal Kingdom has bisexual behavior, but lacks strictly homosexual behavior. Seagulls don’t label themselves, then ignore instinct and act on their labels. And yet, the instances of purely homosexual activity in h/g societies is rare. It seems that they all conform to the expectation to have children, regardless of whose intimate company they prefer on the side.

6. In homophobic societies, males (and females) would 'mask' their main activities under a marriage. See THE CATCHER WAS A SPY. Removing that incentive for subterfuge has had a side effect that fewer gay folk are reproducing. That is starting to change with M-M + F-F partnerships. A reasonable solution in about a dozen ways.


- The fact that so many gay couples desire children is telling, but how much of that is genetic and how much is memetic is an open question. In sufficiently homophobic societies (meaning state-level) most people tend to suppress their own instincts not just to outwardly conform. Homophobic societies teach that alternate sexualities are filthy, sinful, and even inhuman. Even if they aren’t punished by death, many people unconsciously suppress their instincts to avoid the ego damage that comes from accepting their own “deviance”. That would tend to preserve allele combinations that promote bisexual behavior, which is part of why the authorities can never stomp them out. But even with increasing social acceptance and the most instinctively gay people possibly failing to reproduce, reversion to the mean would likely keep those alleles in the gene pool until they are excised through genetic engineering.


There's more, but I am already hoping nver to be quoted out of context

- Famous people will always be quoted out of context by manipulators. You just have to expect to need to defend yourself with the context.

PSB

Larry Hart said...

Tacitus:

I've been thinking long and hard on how to show somebody whose view of America is centered on the Hollywood/BBC images of NYC and LA what America is really like.


October might still be nice enough for a drive to Lake Geneva. If they're not vegetarians, take them to Popeye's and get the pulled lamb sandwich. My wife and I have driven up and back from Chicago just for that.

Darrell E said...

Larry Hart said...
"Darrell E:

... they "mistake logical possibilities for probabilities.""



"That's why Dr Brin's competitive arenas are so important. It's not enough to have a theory about what might be possible. The theory has to plausibly fit the known facts. A court case isn't won because one side has an argument--both sides always have one. The case is won on which side's argument is believable."

I know what you mean, and agree. But I can't help but add that really it is often messier than that. The truth (no big T there, doesn't exist) is sometimes quite a bit less plausible seeming than false or mistaken accounts. Of course, if you have enough evidence in support of the true account then it becomes more believable no matter how complex, more or less by definition. At least from the point of view of folks that value evidence over accepting made up shit because it sounds good.

Larry Hart said...

Darrell E:

The truth (no big T there, doesn't exist) is sometimes quite a bit less plausible seeming than false or mistaken accounts.


True, no method of fact-finding is perfect. Competitive disputation arenas are probably the worst such method except for everything else that's been tried.

Darrell E said...

Larry Hart said...
"Darrell E:

"It's often people intentionally fooling others and even intentionally fooling themselves."



"When I first read 1984, I was a high school junior, and the titular year was still in the future. At the time, I did not believe that doublethink was really possible. How could someone willingly fool themselves when they would know that that's what they're doing?

Experience shows me that it is not only possible, but common."


I learned it was possible by seeing it in myself many years ago. I went though a period as a child, about 8 to 12 years of age, during which I was a habitual liar. Lied even when there was no reason to. Some years later, college age, I noticed that there were some events from my liar years that I was no longer sure of the truth about. I found it pretty interesting, and a bit scary. I've no doubt in my mind that people do lie to themselves, realize they are doing it, and if they persist long enough forget that it was ever a lie. The lie eventually becomes what they honestly believe.


"We've all heard how you can't convince someone of something that interferes with his paycheck. But I think religion is responsible for a lot of that kind of "thinking." It's near impossible for someone to consider a conclusion from the facts when even entertaining that line of thought might condemn him to eternal hellfire."

Yes indeed. I've argued before that the purpose of religion, certainly larger organized religions, is exactly that. Keeping the sweaty masses under control by conditioning them to believe they are incurably incompetent and to fear horrible consequences if they break the rules laid down by their religious authorities. Religion is about the most demeaning thing a human can impose on another.

David Brin said...

AB: “Hominid version of a Portuguese Man O’ War?”
That interp of UFOs is the theme of NOPE , Peele’s less-good movie after GET OUT.

PSB. Interesting comments. Just two quick responses:
Metal weapons in the hands of men who grew up as the sons of lords, fully fed, large and trained to use swords with armor = more than enough to enforce feudal rights on peasants for 8000 years.

I maintain that less-apelike women must have resulted from selection pressure that’s rare for female.

David said...

I know how useless guns will be in the next hot civil war phase for offensive action. Drones change everything.

Oh my yes. Friend of mine in L.A. was a reality-TV producer who worked for a while on "Robot Wars." Turned out that a lot of the show's funding was produced by the US Dep't of Defense. The contestants talked about (but I never witnessed) that when these backyard mad scientists would come up with some new control circuit or attack sequence that actually worked, the "Men in Black" would show up after they won a match and quietly license said tech for the drone program.

This led me to travel with a film crew to try to interview some of the folks down at SPAWAR down by San Diego. Even in the early 00s (before we spent 20 years honing drone warfare in Iraq/Afghanistan), the toys they were playing with were more than somewhat terrifying.

At some point, the acronym "SOSADS" entered my vocabulary; it stands for "Self-Organizing Semi-Autonomous Drone Swarms", but I think someone may have been forcing this because it sounds cool. I haven't kept up with the capabilities, and if they are actually being deployed in the giant testing ground in Ukraine, but the concept was that you seeded an area that you wanted to interdict with drones that could make decisions on who to kill on their own.

There were many people who had arguments as to why that would be a VERY BAD IDEA, and had PowerPoints that prominently featured still frames of the Terminator T-800 grinning its metal grin.

David Brin said...

Tacitus you speak of Hollywood propagands.

I am sure that in Lake Wobegon country small towns are ACTUALLY much more like the idyllic image that's been promulgated by mass media.

But in general, red-run states (except Utah and maybe somewhat the MN+WI belt) have far higher rates of turpitudes than the Hollywood propaganda image of small town life.

Higher, in fact, than urban America - whose Hollywood propaganda always pushes their filth and exaggerates their horrors.

SHall we wager whether the ACTUAL Hollywood images aren't TOTALLY biased against cities and pro small towns?

Tacitus said...

David

We've had this discussion about wagers so many times. I simply believe that you do not run an honest game. It starts with the lack of common definitions/vocabulary and goes on out into who decides the rules and judges the outcome.

Also, you've gotten very moralistic in your older years. That might actually be a good thing.

'Scuse me, I'm gonna go do some turpitudinous things now...

Tacitus

Unknown said...

speaking of turpitudinous....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-indictment-jack-smith-2020-election-4b351abf

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/01/trump-indictment-jan-6-2020-election/

popcorn tonight

Pappenheimer

David Brin said...

Tacitus, dismissing the wager demands with "I simply believe that you do not run an honest game. It starts with the lack of common definitions/vocabulary and goes on out into who decides the rules and judges the outcome."

... is disingenuous when you have never ever tried to negotiate over any of those matters.

I keep offering VERY explicit issues. Like whether tests WE perform would show ocean acidification... or rates of "hundred year" storms that are now yearly... or whether rates of STDs or gambling or domestic violence are higher in red run states on average (except Utah). Or whether Democratic administrations ALWAYS slow down rates of deficits while GOP ones ALWAYS accelerate debt...

If you think those questions rigged, could you explain how, instead of calling me dishonest?

Ratios of indictments between high officials in the two parties would seem pretty easy to tabulate. (It approaches 100-to-1) Or a subjective count of movies that diss urban folk, compared to hearty, salt of the earth rural folk (I'll pay if it's not 20 to 1.)

I am willing to negotiate rules and have offered panels of generally non-partisan senior retired military officers to adjudicate.

The fact that no GOP person ever even TRIES to negotiate, but simply shrugs and then flees, is hugely telling. As is the fact that no dem pol is ever, ever smart enough or brave enough to try this.

But I wish you well...sitting here amused to be called an old grouch!

Oh... YOU "turpitudinous?" Har. That's be the day, you good person you.

Unknown said...

"Metal weapons in the hands of men who grew up as the sons of lords, fully fed, large and trained to use swords with armor"

I'd add to that the ability to afford chariots/chariot teams and then purpose-bred war horses, and the leisure time needed to master mounted combat.

N.B., armies of footmen tended to be more egalitarian than their chivalrous counterparts, and could be very effective - they could win, as at Courtrai, or lose so Pyrrhically as to deter further enemy advance, as at St Jakob and der Birs. Over all, though, your thesis stands.

Pappenheimer

Alfred Differ said...

Drone swarms making their own decisions is morally equivalent to a mine field. Sure… they can move, but they likely don't last as long due to power requirements a mine does not have. [I'm not advocating for killer swarms. I'd rather we recognized mine fields as a tactic to be abolished.]

———

Back when I did high power rocketry, I could and did help build stuff that flew at speeds between mach 2 and 3. They are impressively scary things, but not much danger in a civil war scenario. Controlling them to fly to a particular location is the scariest thing, but if you have the tech to do that you'll see you don't need supersonic speeds. Terrain hugging cruise missiles aren't scary because of how fast they go.

That's what the drone folks are managing so gun-toting cosplay fool just makes me wonder if they are compensating for something missing.

I have to point out one exception and I'm pretty sure it shows up in our host's Jefferson Rifle essay. A thousand trained people with bolt action rifles are MUCH more impressive as an offensive and defensive force than an angry guy with an AR-15. I look at them as a coordinated swarm, though. That's WHY drone swarms are dangerous.

———

My tech project days date back to when GPS was just beginning to show up in consumer devices. A few years before that time and we had to buy special equipment and learn to program it all. A few years after and we could buy it COTS leaving the programming to deal with autonomous decisions. In a few more years the maps were essentially free to download and accurate to sub-meter scales.

Only fools (and a few oligarchs) want US Civil War II with modern weapons. We'd make the world collectively poop their pants. WATCH WHAT THE BARBARIANS CAN DO NEXT! (Yikes)

Robert said...

I've no doubt in my mind that people do lie to themselves, realize they are doing it, and if they persist long enough forget that it was ever a lie. The lie eventually becomes what they honestly believe.

There's been quite a bit of work on on implanting memories, and it turns out to be not terribly difficult, and possible to do accidentally. Doesn't surprise me a bit that people can do it to themselves. Reprogramming your own mind is what CBT is about, after all.

In science-fictional terms, it means that truth serums or Piper-esque verindicators are much less likely to be useful than they are often portrayed as.

Robert said...

hat's what the drone folks are managing so gun-toting cosplay fool just makes me wonder if they are compensating for something missing.

Given how quickly the same demographic came out in favour of gun control when folks with different pigmentation exercised their second amendment rights, I think you've got to consider racism as a major motivation. Useless at fighting drone swarms, but pretty good at intimidating civilians while claiming to feel threatened (and therefore legally justified).

BTW, Happy Emancipation Day to those who celebrate it today.

locumranch said...

A brief description of this thread, followed by an imperfect deconstruction of the term 'Holnist':

As an alienologist who denies the existence of UFOs, a best-selling fantasist who expounds on hard reality, and a rules guy who actively despises rules, our host has a truly inspiring gift for self-contradiction.

First, he dismisses the 'UFO craze' as a distraction after previously laying claim to being an 'alien expert' based on works of fiction;

Second, he warns about the resurgence of feudalism (aka 'the Neo-Monarchy Movement'), currently based at a hebraic webzine known as 'The Tablet', adding only that his Holnists "have always been part of human nature"; and

Third, he identifies 'Enlightenment Values' as being essentially disruptive & dyscivilising, which act only by "breaking up powerful interests into small enough units, so that it is in each unit’s interest to tattle on power abusers" (in the pursuit of 'reciprocal accountability').

Now, what's so special about the term 'Holnist"?

I've always misread this as 'Holonist', due to some dyslexia on my part, with the term 'holon' being defined as "self-reliant units that possess a degree of independence and can handle contingencies without asking higher authorities for instructions", resulting in self-replicating & self-regulating structures, as described by Koestler in 1970.

Holon Theory presupposes a default setting of 'self-replicating & self-regulating structures' and, assuming that this theory applies to Feudalism, this may be why our fine host appears to contradict himself so often, as he simultaneously attacks & destroys the very rule sets that he wishes to enforce in an attempt to prevent the emergence of any clear winners & losers that may lead to 'a systems reset'.

It therefore follows that our host's ultimate goal appears to be the maintenance and propagation of a set amount of Cultural Instability, aka 'the Sweet Spot between Order & Chaos', a kind of Lagrange Point where the two opposing forces of Feudalism & Anarchy cancel themselves out in order to maximize individual freedom & creativity.

Literary precedents include Machiavelli's "Art of War", Van Vogt's "Empire of Isher", Spinrad's "Agent of Chaos" and Alinsky's "Rules for Radicals".

As in all-of-the-above precedents, cultural instability (no matter how 'desirable' such instability may seem) is unstable BY DEFINITION and tends to collapse in on itself, seeking a lower energy state, much like a quantum wave function.

Instability (as it's name suggests) is self-limiting, much in the way that Machiavelli fell victim to his own sage advice, Van Vogt presupposed an immortal meddler to achieve 'balance', Spinrad presupposed the perpetual ignorance of all participants and Alinsky disrupted but could not conserve.

As to our host's attempts to 'Maintain Cultural Instability' at some idealized & arbitrary level, these amount to a Fool's Errand, as all such interventions are much more likely to hasten our cultural collapse than prevent it.


Best

locumranch said...

An addendum in 3 parts:

(1) My fave George Orwell novel is "Coming Up for Air". It's the based tale of a middle-aged & middle class insurance broker who learns that all of his hopes, dreams, memories, desires & legacies are shit. Of no significance whatsoever. I highly recommend it.

(2) Tacitus is right to conclude that the 'Turpitude Comparison Game' is a sucker bet as it requires astronomical amounts of moral relativism, yet I'm still willing to play, assuming that Dr. Brin is willing to agree that '1 infanticide' equals '2 abortions', '4 rapes', '7 sodomies', '26 racisms' or '24,000 insecticides'. I'll see his '1 murder'; I'll raise him '3 mercy killings'; and the winner will be the one who screams 'Yahtzee' soonest.

(3) There are those who conclude that another Civil War cannot happen "over here", mostly because most Westerners, Americans, Brits & Euros are far too indolent, demographically old, physically inactive & morbidly obese to put up much of a fight. Although all these things are true, those who think like this are 'most sincerely dead', as recent history has shown us that civilization-destroying conflict only requires a FRACTION of the population to take up arms, as in the case of Lebanon, Libya & Syria.

Ten percent. That's all it takes to upend, overthrow & destabilize our whole regime of deliberate Cultural Instability. Ten percent. The amount of our countrymen who could reduce our current system to rubble if & when they lose faith in our system & choose to take up arms against it. Ten percent. At a time when Public Trust in Government is at an all-time historical low in both the US & abroad.

It appears that right-wing conservatives can be radicalized, too.


Best

Tony Fisk said...

The cautionary Slaughterbots came out 6 years ago. It was a feasible scenario then. I shudder to think what they would be capable of now.

David Brin said...

Gawd what a perfect example of how large language ‘models’ work. Words strung together not only incrementally for making plausible sounding noises, but if-therefore ‘statements’ that foist faux logic.

Alas, he is also stark, jabbering foaming insane. The ‘contradictions’ that he cites are not only based not even remotely on things I say or believe. They are not even parse-able AS contradictions.

After that, though, he actually proposes something vaguely interesting: “our host's ultimate goal appears to be the maintenance and propagation of a set amount of Cultural Instability, aka 'the Sweet Spot between Order & Chaos', a kind of Lagrange Point where the two opposing forces of Feudalism & Anarchy cancel themselves out in order to maximize individual freedom & creativity.”

Notice what he has done - besides misusing quotation marks like a liar. Since I oppose both feudalism and anarchy, he concludes that I am attempting to maintain a metastable state between them (notice also how I just now accurately paraphrased him, something he has never, ever, ever done here.)

What this demonstrates -perfectly – is my longstanding diagnosis that poor locum lives in a sepia flatland of simple dichotomies. Unable to grasp notions that people keep mentioning that terrify him. Like “up” or the color blue. Or Postive sum. Or options outside of simple dichotomies.

None of which may be his fault. What IS culpable is his insistence on reiterating the cramming of fetid and utterly denied opinions into strawmen after being told they bear no relation and are offensively dead wrong. That insistence is not just crazy… it is rude and proof of deeply bad character.

His second posting contains less jibberish and more honesty as he spews frantic threats. Ignoring the fact that OUR 10% includes almost every single American who knows cyber, nuclear, chem, nano and bio… plus almost the entire intel and officer corps. And a large majority of decent Americans. And the civilizaed world. And nearly all the women. I’d say “bring it, asshole,” except he probably will. And rendering Holnists extinct will bring me nothing like the jizz joy he would feel, upon turning me into soap.

And that is why we’ll easily win.

David Brin said...

Oh, BTW there are legal definitions to many turpitudes and hence they can be enumerated for wager comparison. His cult has redefined so many former sins, like divorce, gambling, incest etc that they cannot care that they are steeped in those and others they once despised.

But the rates are there. Public knowledge. And he writhes like all his cult to evade ever stepping up - like a man would - and putting $$ on the comparable clear statistcal checks on who wallows in foul practices.

Tacitus said...

David
I have on various occasions tried to find a common ground where we could actually discuss this very issue. I have found you....evasive. These are my perceptions of the situation, and remember that I have been meandering through ConBrin for over 20 years.

I am - and no sarc here - delighted to have entertained you with the notion of being a crabby old guy! Personally I'm just happy that turpitudinous is a real word!

I have no interest in acquiring your house. Keep it. I have no confidence that your selected group of retired military officers (make it 51 just to be sure) would be a fair jury.

But still.....

I might put something together for the more thoughtful members of the Commentariat. I don't come here primarily to read your stuff, as I do find your excesses distracting of late. But if a question was put forward for say, LarryHart, Duncan, heck maybe a couple others it would be interesting to see reasoned opinions.

You continue to be a Manichean who sees Good/Evil, Guilty/Innocent and Right/Wrong as binary outcomes. Sometimes, and it should be allowed to say it, the resolution could be along the lines of "both sides make good points".

I do have other things to do of course.

Tacitus

Larry Hart said...

locumranch:

It appears that right-wing conservatives can be radicalized, too.


Like that's some sort of surprise revelation? It's been obvious since Barry Goldwater.

Larry Hart said...

...Since the Ku Klux Klan, actually.

Larry Hart said...

Tacitus:

Sometimes, and it should be allowed to say it, the resolution could be along the lines of "both sides make good points".


Most things are like that. Even contentious issues like abortion. I'll acknowledge that some people legitimately think that it's morally wrong to kill an innocent life in the womb, even as it is also a legitimate position that it is unconscionable to impress women into service as an ambulatory incubator. Neither side is wrong in their beliefs, and the sad fact is that there are completely irreconcilable, inalienable rights which must be balanced.

There are cases, however, where there's a clear distinction between the arguments on each side--where one has a point and the other is just blathering. There are not "good people on both sides" of a Nazi rally. The Unabomber or Timothy McVeigh did not "have a point" which justified his terrorism.

I think you have trouble understanding that many of us see the present-day Trumpist Republican Party as that far egregious. And while I can accept that the type of Republican one might encounter in rural Wisconsin does not himself hold such anti-democratic opinions, their representatives in congress are forced to support that sort of crap with their votes. I have all kinds of admiration for Illinois Republican Adam Kinzinger for recognizing the truth about Trump, but his seat is essentially a vote for McCarthy, and therefore for the Freedom Caucasians.

You perceive some of us as attacking your personal beliefs and those of your neighbors, when what we're doing is more like regretting that you enable the bad guys.

* * *

A separate and non-political issue...

I earlier lauded Popeye's restaurant in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin. I want to be clear that I'm not referring to the fried chicken chain of that same name. I'm sure the place in question is not being sued only because they are not a chain and they had the name first.

Many of you know that my wife has many medical issues, although at the moment (God willing and the creek don't rise) none of them life-threatening. One of the more annoying is an allergy to cow protein that came into being as an adult. Lactaid doesn't help because the allergy isn't to lactose, but to a cow protein. She can no longer comfortably eat beef or drink milk, which also rule out three of her former favorites--ice cream, pizza, and Italian beef.

Luckily, in the age we live in, there is goat milk and sheep cheese and Indian ice cream made from water buffalo milk. But it's been very difficult to find a replacement for Italian beef. Popeye's in Lake Geneva has a "pulled lamb sandwich" which is kinda like pulled pork, but not barbeque flavored. The experience is exactly like eating an Italian beef sandwich. We've made the round trip from Chicago just to walk into the place and eat sandwiches. That good.

* * *

I kinda miss "Tacitus2". The suffix reads more like "descendant of..." or "philosophical follower of..." the historical Tacitus rather than just using the name. Just sayin'

Larry Hart said...

It might have been more accurate for me to say "Intellectual heir to..."

scidata said...

Dr. Brin: rendering Holnists extinct will bring me nothing like [joy]

This was one of the gems that emerged from the awkward* first steps of Enlightenment. Later refined and embodied by such leaders as Lincoln and Marshall in the US and Douglas and Pearson in Canada. Also one of the main themes of ST TOS, although Kirk did get a bit preachy at times.

"any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind" - Donne


* It often involved metamorphic struggle out of religious tribalism and dogma. Many of the early proponents were clergy!
When Larry Hart mentioned Parliament above, I heard, "Mither, Mither Thpeaker" in my ears. (Pearson had a lisp as bad as JB's stutter). Minor flaws charm a citizenry, catastrophic flaws enrapture a cult.

David Brin said...

LH: You have seen the headlines about the tick-borne disease that makes folks allergic to red meat?

Tacitus - the opponent here whom I (very deeply) like and respect - accuses me of Manicheanism… and I certainly see his point. It’s NOT a strawman, since -sure - I definitely do think that the children, planet and civilization that I love are under dire and immediate and mortal threat from a romantic (and thus fact-hating) movement, backed by would-be lords, riling-up the same know-nothing mobs that Robert Heinlein fretted about here: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2017/03/looking-back-at-heinleins-future.html

It's true that I believe – and offer mountains of proof – that this this parallel-coordinated resurgence of confederatism-Wahhabism-RussoMysticism*-Naziism-Maoism-Randianism is spectacularly evil, endangering (perhaps) the galaxy’s one chance for a civilization worthy of the stars. Or, at minimum, seeks to wreck the Enlightenment Experiment to which I (and Tacitus) owe everything. But does that mean I am a reflexive, oversimplifying exaggerator?

You know better, sir. I quite often skewer the sanctimony-junkies and woke-ist bullies of the Left, who generally do their own causes far more harm than good. They are, in fact, a principal reason why the MAGA coalition has been able to cohere enough to avoid electoral extinction.

You know I am fully capable of saying “on the other hand.” (Even when it comes to UFO idiocy.) And recognizing validity of some aspects of conservatism, though not this dominant-treasonous-mutant brand of conservatism. Indeed, the abandonment BY conservatism of any notion of fiscal responsibility, or fact-based honesty, while making excuses for a red-state tidal surge of gambling, divorce, domestic violence, STDs, electoral cheating, racism and so on is one of the reasons why Arizona draws power from the spinning in Barry Goldwater’s grave.

Tacitus, you act as if there is a basis for ‘negotiation,’ when your party has savagely destroyed ALL the old methods for doing so. Dennis “friend to boys” Hastert – the GOP’s choice for SPEAKER after Newt – declared that any GOP politician who negotiated with a democrat without permission (never given) would be punished. Gerrymandering ensures radicals took over all party functions. GOP representatives are forbidden to bring their families to DC, lest they form personal relationships with the families of Democrats.

How do we negotiate with a party that insists on more and more Supply Side tax grifts for the aristocracy, after 30 years of those tsunamis of our wealth never achieved a single prediction or goal?

Show me a MAGA proposal you deem reasonable, please. Oh, I have offered many proposals that Dems have NOT put forward. I want further limits on presidential power! I want a permanent right for each rep to issue one subpoena per year. I want each member to be required to choose a science adviser from their home district…

I WANT to negotiate. Show me an issue where the mad cult hasn’t made it impossible.

(* In The Postman I posited the “Mystic of Leningrad” helped kill civilization.)

Darrell E said...

Just got through reading the J6 Trump Indictment. It clearly supports my views on Trump and the Republican Party. As did the Documents Indictment.

The indictment reveals exactly what any rational person that hasn't been deluding themselves and is reasonably ethical expected it would. It reveals the Trump administration as something like a poorly written movie about a thoroughly corrupt and thankfully not particularly competent government. Something like a cross between Nixon and Idiocracy. It verifies that we did indeed come very close to a coup, that would likely have lead to a crisis worse in some ways than the Civil War. Real close. A handful of state officials, a few federal government officials and Mike Pence. They were the paltry few that prevented that by deciding, for whatever reasons, to finally say something like, "No, I won't step over that line."

It's real simple. Anyone who can't bring themselves to vote against the RP, even or especially those* on my side whining that Biden or the PM/CTIL (the Post Modernist / Critical Theory Illiberal Left) are so bad they might have to vote RP or some spoiler, have either deluded themselves, or something worse. The reason we can't have nice things, like decent enlightenment societies, is that too many humans are incapable of seeing the obvious and would rather wallow in righteous delusions.

* These folks are doubly deluded. The Biden administration's accomplishments rival or exceed those of any president since FDR, The Hunter hoorah is bullshit as amply demonstrated by the repeated humiliations of the RP tools that have been attempting to prove their case, and while the PM/CTIL certainly are a pain in the ass they are not remotely the level of threat the RP is.

Slim Moldie said...

LH

The alpha-gal syndrome Dr. B referenced caused by tics is a reaction to a sugar molecule.

Another pasture (rabbit hole) you can google graze (go down) is Bovine β-Casein A1 and A2 Variants and Human Health. Research ongoing so not without contention. Personally my meals enjoy a more pleasant experience going through the finish line if I stick to goat dairy vs bovine. I have a friend who can eat dairy when he she's with her husbands family in Iceleand without any of the digestive repercussions she experiences in US. Searching "A2 Milk Wisconsin" brought up a dairy called Stoney Hill Jerseys in Brodhead that sells the bill of goods at their website if you're curious.

But as far as I know the A1/A2 mutation research is restricted to milk consumption and wouldn't explain the meat issues, which does sound more like the tic-allergy Dr. B pointed out.

Slim Moldie said...

Sorry if leaving the k out of tick got under anyone's ski :)

Acacia H. said...

Here is a link to an article on the room temperature ambient pressure superconductor. And it is most... interesting. And let me tell you, I never thought I'd read "Russian catgirl" in a scientific article (though given some scientists and engineers have fursonas I probably shouldn't be that surprised...).

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/superconductor-breakthrough-replicated-twice

Acacia H.

Larry Hart said...

@Slim Moldie,

Thanks. We're lucky enough to live in a 21st century Enlightenment society. We've found plenty of substitutes for milk, cheese, and even (thanks to an Indian-American colleague at work) ice cream.

Italian beef was more of an issue, and so far, we only know of the one replacement that I mentioned, about an hour's drive away. First world problems. :)

"I can't complain, but sometimes I still do."

Larry Hart said...

Darrell E:

These folks are doubly deluded. The Biden administration's accomplishments rival or exceed those of any president since FDR,


I've been screaming that at the tv for months now. The liberal complaint against Biden seems to be that he's not sexy enough, and that he hasn't accomplished every item on the bucket list quickly enough. The leftist complaint seems to be that anyone who can get white Christian male votes is too compromised to support. In other words, they'll only vote for someone who will LOSE to Trump.

I've said this before, Biden didn't especially excite me as the 2020 candidate, but he's won me over with performance. Biden is not a lesser evil for liberals; he's one of the most accomplished presidents in history, and that's with an arm and a half tied behind his back by Congress and the supreme court.

Liberals who can't countenance Biden as their nominee sound to me like this:

“Apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system, and public 'ealth ... what have the Romans ever done for us?"

Robert said...

"any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind" - Donne

No man is an island, but some of us are damned long peninsulas…

Robert said...

Just got through reading the J6 Trump Indictment. It clearly supports my views on Trump and the Republican Party. As did the Documents Indictment.

And how many people will actually do that? Because the emails I got this morning from Pence, Banks, Carson, and many others (over two dozen in all) just called them witch-hunts that proved the Dems were corrupt using the DoJ to fight political vendettas and end democracy forever. But with more random capitalization and appeals for cash donations, as well as ads for cannabis and guns.

How many American reporters have read the actual indictments and used that in their reporting?

Come to that, any bets on how many politicians have done so? (Themselves, as opposed to their staff.)

Robert said...

Another pasture (rabbit hole) you can google graze (go down) is Bovine β-Casein A1 and A2 Variants and Human Health. Research ongoing so not without contention. Personally my meals enjoy a more pleasant experience going through the finish line if I stick to goat dairy vs bovine. I have a friend who can eat dairy when he she's with her husbands family in Iceleand without any of the digestive repercussions she experiences in US.

I consume about 5-6 bags of milk a week (7-8 litres). Canadian milk, though, not American. (Which is a source of trade tension, because according to the American government us not wanting milk from cows shot with bovine growth hormone is an unfair restraint of trade.) No idea if our herds are different enough that the allele isn't common up here.

Larry Hart said...


"any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind" - Donne


It's a good aspirational sentiment, but there are exceptions--those humans who actively work to diminish and harm mankind, and who have the power and influence to do so.

Hitler's death doesn't diminish me, it embiggens me. So did Limbaugh's and David Koch's and Pat Robertson's. And there is at least one ex-president, one Senate majority leader, and a few supreme court justices whose deaths will relieve mankind of a cancer, albeit perhaps too late to stop the spread. No, I'm not advocating helping the process along, but I will celebrate post facto.

That may make me a bad liberal. I can live with it.

edzapata said...

It's a sad day when some people, and one person is too many, believe that small, tedious technology steps adding up to significant steps, are due to aliens, not humans. To think so little of what people are capable of! We could edit Clarkes saying - "Any sufficiently advanced technology, if you fail to take an interest in the universe around you, soon appears indistinguishable from magic, or aliens."

David Brin said...

LH I fear for DT's life. I seriously do and I pray for the vigilance of the Secret Service. Those who would Howard Beale him would do so in a way to maximally stir a violent phase 9 of Civil War. And they are thinking about it, almost certainly as he becomes ever more a liability, like Howard Beale.

The thing we need most of all is the data spills from the Trump Org and Deutsche Bank and those are so incredibly delayed that I sense they'll embarrass more than the Trumps.

Robert said...

We could edit Clarkes saying - "Any sufficiently advanced technology, if you fail to take an interest in the universe around you, soon appears indistinguishable from magic, or aliens."

I like that.

Most people aren't that curious about science/tech, just taking the world as it is for granted. I remember attending a lecture by David Suzuki where he told the story of doing man-on-the-street interviews for "The Nature of Things". So there they were one January, in a parking lot in Winnipeg, talking to a chap who had just come out of Safeways with a bag of fresh vegetables. "How have science and technology affected your daily life?" they ask him. And he thinks, and then answers "They haven't. They don't affect my daily life at all." and heads to his car to drive home. Chap was buying fresh tomatoes in winter, dressed for -30° weather, driving a car, and he didn't think that science and technology affected his daily life at all!

scidata said...

In the early 1990s, I worked at a start-up in the same building as David Suzuki's headquarters in Vancouver. I really wanted to give him my elevator speech about citizen science, but we never met. Oh, what might have been.

Tony Fisk said...

@Larry allergies suck. I think you and your wife would find Monbiot's 'Regenesis' a good read. Non-animal protein substitutes are closer than you think (closer than even he thought at the time: he's since discovered that meat texture simulations are just about there)

Tony Fisk said...

I've occasionally paraphrased Clarke's 'third law'* as:

"Any magic sufficiently well understood is indistinguishable from science"

Indeed, Vance could be said to take original credit in his 'Dying Earth' stories, where a mage discovers that true understanding of magical principles involves an ancient mystery called 'mathematics'.

* as he subsequently labelled the statement. Tongue in cheek he stopped there; 'modestly' noting that Asimov and Newton had also settled for three.

Unknown said...

Robert:

Appropriate that the villain's volcanic hideout in 'The Incredibles' was on Nomanisan Island.

Too bad we can't hand out capes to our 'favorite' people. "No, really, all the best and finest are wearing them...!"

Pappenheimer

Paradoctor said...

Here is a collection of revealing red-party quotes:

Nixon: "Everything I say is self-serving."
Reagan: "Facts are stupid things."
Karl Rove, maybe: "Reality creators."
Kellyanne Conway: "Alternative facts."
Trump, to Pence: "You're too honest."

Any additions, especially from the blue party, will be appreciated.

David Brin said...

Carter: "If I set an example and let the Iranian diplomates go home, the Ayatollahs will..."
Clinton: "If I'm the best and most successful president since FDR, no one will remember little..."
Obama: "My birth announcement in the Honolulu Advertiser in 1962 ought to get the right to calm...
Biden: "More legislation and more effective than anyone since LBJ oughta persauade the left to calm..."

Alfred Differ said...

Tongue in cheek he stopped there; 'modestly' noting that Asimov and Newton had also settled for three.

Kepler went for thirteen, but no one writes about the other ten much anymore. 8)

Larry,

No, I'm not advocating helping the process along, but I will celebrate post facto.

My list is shorter than yours... but yah. I admit to it.

Alan Brooks said...

Encouraging:
https://spectator.org/putins-russia-popular-myths-to-get-rid-of/?fbclid=IwAR16k4glZ-j4XSUvBmEfMBgi_aeeYIhl-Kb2CEV1i1k4VsBLjn15xrrCwNI

Paradoctor said...

Brin:
Please complete your quotes, accurately, and provide citation.

My quotes were on the theme of red-party dishonesty; yours are on the theme of blue-party naivete'. Please find dishonesty quotes, party irrelevant. I derive perverse pleasure from "You're too honest" and "Facts are stupid things".

I admit that my quotes of Conway and Rove summarized much longer quotes. Here's Rove:

“We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.”

I'm an agnostic; I'm not sure what or if the Reality Creator is; but I'm pretty sure that whoever or whatever creates reality, it isn't Rove and his associates.

Dr. Brin, these quotes perfectly illustrate your claim of an oligarchic war on honesty itself. Nietzsche called honesty the youngest of the virtues.

I call such demagoguery "crimes against reason", and this is in two senses. A "crime against reason", in the lesser sense, is a crime foolishly motivated and planned, whose commission does the perpetrator no good, for he had no good reason to commit it: whereas a "crime against reason", in the greater sense, is a crime targeting reason itself, the better to make the befooled marks more exploitable.

A crime against reason, in the lesser sense, is a crime of fools; a crime against reason, in the greater sense, is a crime of crooks. But the two tend to become one: for everyone lies to a crook, so they become fools; and fools lie to themselves, so they become crooks.

David Brin said...

AB a fun essay and I was glad to know of the author's background. Still it's propagands.

Paradoctor I see you still feel wounded and want to get even. I call baloney though. No one on Earth would claim those 'quotes' of Carter, Clinton etc were anything but satire. When there's no ambiguity at all, it's not an issue... unlike misattributing to me things I neither said nor believe, in ways meant to harm me.

Paradoctor said...

Brin:

Whatever. So you were spoofing the Blues, not quoting them. Got it. Sorry I got confused.

Mine were quotes. Can you find others, on the same dishonesty theme? Right now I don't remember any from George Bush the Greater.

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

My quotes were on the theme of red-party dishonesty; yours are on the theme of blue-party naivete'. Please find dishonesty quotes, party irrelevant.


I think our host's point was not to match your quotes, but to draw distinction between the kind of things Democrats say vs Republicans. Naivete vs dishonesty is a good description.

I'm reminded of a billboard in Chicago that advertised a local right-wing talk station with these three simple words emblazoned in all-caps splendor:

LIBERALS
HATE
US


That was supposed to be the entire appeal of the station.

This was during the days of Air-America, and our AA affiliate countered with their own ad which had Al Franken's smiling face next to the words:

LIBERALS
LOVE
US


Which tells you all you need to know about the differences between the parties.

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

Can you find others, on the same dishonesty theme?


Clinton: "I didn't have sex with that woman." 'Course technically, he was weaseling rather than lying (depending on what the definition of 'sex' is)

Darrell E said...

"I do not like broccoli, and I haven't liked it since I was a little kid and my mother made me eat it. And I'm president of the United States, and I'm not going to eat any more broccoli."
[George HW Bush]

Larry Hart said...

Interesting juxtaposition...

locumranch:

As an alienologist who denies the existence of UFOs, a best-selling fantasist who expounds on hard reality, and a rules guy who actively despises rules, our host has a truly inspiring gift for self-contradiction.


Tacitus:

You continue to be a Manichean who sees Good/Evil, Guilty/Innocent and Right/Wrong as binary outcomes. Sometimes, and it should be allowed to say it, the resolution could be along the lines of "both sides make good points".

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

My list is shorter than yours... but yah. I admit to it.


I forgot to even mention a certain dictator of a country that spans both Europe and Asia.

Larry Hart said...

@Darrell E re: broccoli,

Now we're just getting silly.

Howard Brazee said...

It seems that there are as many people who believe in human-occupied alternate universes than there are people who believe in alien-occupied UFOs these days.

Howard Brazee said...

One thing about kings is that there are lots of people who demand that everything is caused by powerful entities, good and bad.

And they don't even have to *do* anything. Just *be* the king and if you are the good guy, good things will follow, or if you are the bad guy, bad things will follow.

Apparently, they are more comfortable with this than with "shit happens".

Darrell E said...

Larry Hart,

When daddy Bush made that statement, that's what made me realize that the RP had become a danger to the nation and that I could no longer consider voting for any RP politician.

Broccoli is delicious. Especially when steamed until tender and covered in a nice cheese sauce, like my grandmother typically served it. Or, even better, simply tossed with some good olive oil, salt & pepper, roasted until you get a little bit of char here and there, and then drizzled with some good balsamic vinegar.

Larry Hart said...

@Darrell E,

That's about the dumbest reason I can imagine for turning on the Republican Party. However, any road that gets you there is worthwhile.

David Brin said...

LH “Which tells you all you need to know about the differences between the parties.”
What actually tells the difference is that right wing rant radio and Fox “News” are immensely profitable with mass captive audiences. MSNBC almost went bankrupt following the rant model and only pulled back to marginal profit when they toned the partisanship down to MILD. And Air America evaporated.

Why? Liberals – most of them – grow bored with rants and wander off.

Yes, Tacitus is right that “the resolution could be along the lines of "both sides make good points".
But that depends upon normal argument. It breaks down when one side has gone stark jabbering insane, invulnerable to any correlation or disproof or support by facts. Or when that side’s controllers have the blatant AIM of wrecking discourse, negotiation and positive sum argument. I can PROVE that today’s GOP has exactly that goal and effect.

Oh, I am an alienologist who knows more than anyone – and I mean anyone – about the breadth of concepts about that topic… and I ‘deny UFOs’ because they are vapid, insipid distraction-delusions, distracting from the vast array of vastly better possibilities.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

MSNBC almost went bankrupt following the rant model and only pulled back to marginal profit when they toned the partisanship down to MILD.


The bothsidesers like to draw a parallel between MSNBC and FOX as if they are dark reflections of each other. Bill Maher likes to say things like "If you listen only to FOX, then the Hunter Biden investigations reveal deep corruption in the Democratic Party to protect the president and his family. If you listen only to MSNBC, then those same investigations are a sham meant to distract from Trump's legal woes." As if both sides are simply spinning the truth for their own benefit.

The two are not symmetrical. It's not just "MSNBC" saying the Hunter Biden investigations are a sham--they really are a sham. Also, there are no liberals who "only listen to MSNBC." It doesn't occupy the same position in society that FOX does, with loyal viewers who believe no one else. Even more importantly, FOX plays ubiquitously in public spaces such as hotel lobbies and restaurants and of course, Armed Forces Radio. There is simply no equivalent on the good side.


And Air America evaporated.


But progressive talk radio does live on, at least in Chicago, on WCPT--820 AM. The appeal is not that of a bubble, but of relief of escaping the bubble which prevails across much of this country's geography. It's a breath of fresh air to hear people speaking truth and enjoying themselves while doing so. And not being a-holes about it.

Paradoctor said...

The Elder Bush quote about broccoli was petulant, but not dishonest; Bill Clinton about Lewinsky was dishonest; but neither celebrate dishonesty itself, which is the effect I'm looking for. "You're too honest"; that was too honest, in an Epimenidean way. I seek quotes that are adjacent to "this sentence is false". For instance, Marx: "I am not a Marxist."

My Epimenidean Political Quote list now goes:

Nixon: "Everything I say is self-serving."
Reagan: "Facts are stupid things."
Karl Rove: “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.”
Kellyanne Conway: "You’re saying it’s a falsehood and Sean Spicer... gave alternative facts..."
Trump, to Pence: "You're too honest."
Marx: "I am not a Marxist."
And let's not forget:
Goebbels: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

...but neither celebrate dishonesty itself, which is the effect I'm looking for.


There's a reason you keep coming up with quotes by Republicans and strain to find any from Democrats. Today's Republicans do in fact celebrate dishonesty. Democrats don't.


Nixon: "Everything I say is self-serving."
...
Goebbels: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."


Both of those were true statements.

David said...

Dr. Brin -

The charge leveled against you that you seek to moderate macro-contradictions is, perhaps, a badge of honor. I am reminded of the (admittedly flawed) work by Jared Diamond, "Guns, Germs & Steel." The central takeaway, the reason it was studied by corporate-management-types, was that it looked at what made some societies succeed, while others failed.

- Pre-Bismarck Germany = fragmented city-states, too small to really do anything, thus slapped around for centuries. Verdict: too anarchic and you can't unify to get Big Things done

- Imperial China = unified dictatorship where any divergence from Divine Emperor's whims is punishable by death. Verdict: too much central control and you get no new thinking or innovation

The beauty of Enlightened societies is that we try to peacefully bridge the extremes. In America, the struggle between the rights of the individual to be stubborn cranks vs. the rights of society to use taxation & gov't efforts to build stuff that benefits us all

(nb. Yes, I know that Diamond's book has come under sustained, justified criticism for missing some critical stuff. I even discussed this with him when I was teaching at USC, and we were both at a Teaching With Technology seminar for us elitist, Volvo-driving latte-sipping smartypants. His take was that he welcomed criticism, and his book was meant as an opening statement. The way science is supposed to work.)

David said...

Addendum to the discussion about left v. right truthiness:

One of the phenomena I studied was the rise of the fake-news websites, spun up (in some cases) by Macedonian teenagers. They used Facebook to A/B test what imaginary stories would cause people to share them, and then made $$$ from Google AdSense on their sites. They used the money to buy guitars, not really realizing what the effect that these dystopian "Killary Eats Babies!!!" info-memes were having on American politics.

Here's the point. They very quickly realized that all the money was in catering to the absurd fears of the right-wing.

Why?

Liberals click on the links. When the story is a lie, liberals will dismiss it and not share it.

Conservatives just share it. Even if it's proven wrong, by Snopes or whatever fact-checker is attempting to stem the tide of lies. Perhaps, these days, even more so if a fact-checker tries to call B.S.

Yes, there are lies on both sides. But only one side so eagerly consumes them.

Darrell E said...

Larry Hart,

I can't be sure, but it really does seem like it's possible that I need to point this out. I was joking.

Paradoctor said...

Larry Hart:
"There's a reason you keep coming up with quotes by Republicans and strain to find any from Democrats. Today's Republicans do in fact celebrate dishonesty. Democrats don't."

Which is Brin's point.

So... the blue party celebrates diversity, and the red party celebrates dishonesty.

This division makes sense, philosophically. Oligarchic rule requires lies. Note Plato, who recommended a Noble Lie to keep his ideal Republic stable. The trouble is, surely his Noble Lie would fool only the nobility.

But I say that a far nobler lie, philosophically speaking, is the legend of Santa Claus; for children are expected to outgrow Santa, and in so doing, learn a valuable lesson in critical thinking.

Howard Brazee said...

"So... the blue party celebrates diversity, and the red party celebrates dishonesty.".

Yes, but. The Red party believes everybody is corrupt. Dishonesty isn't to be celebrated, it is just the way things are. The fight isn't between honesty and dishonesty, it is between my team and their team, and anything you can do to win is acceptable.

Alfred Differ said...

Darrell E,

Heh. If one's experience with broccoli is limited to the kind dished up from a frozen veggie bag, I could see having a profound dislike for the stuff.*

My childhood was spent on various military bases, so fresh veggies were VERY seasonal. Not-previously-frozen corn didn't arrive on my plate until I was 14. A tree-ripened peach wasn't until I was 10. Non-frozen spinach wasn't on my plate until my early 20's when I moved to California.

I'm not defending Bush Sr, but back in his day the concept of off-season availability for fruits and veggies in the market just wasn't a thing. Now it is and people today don't grok just how big a change that is. If I want broccoli any time of the year... I can find it. Fresh.


* For me as a kid it was brussel sprouts. Frozen bitter atrocities. I get them fresh nowadays and they are utterly different things. I see them growing in the fields near me so I also have an idea for when the off-season occurs.

Larry Hart said...

Darrell E:

It's possible that I need to point this out. I was joking.


No, I know that. I was going along with the joke, while still taking the opportunity to dis Republicans.

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

But I say that a far nobler lie, philosophically speaking, is the legend of Santa Claus; for children are expected to outgrow Santa, and in so doing, learn a valuable lesson in critical thinking.


They learn that adults lie. But also, once they outgrow Santa, they become part of the conspiracy to keep the wee ones believing. They move on to a higher stage.

Comics writer Steven Grant once said that learning Santa doesn't exist is practice for realizing that God doesn't exist. I can't argue with that.

My daughter figured out that Santa was...suspect...when her Barbie playhouse was delivered by the UPS driver.

David Brin said...

"David" "Yes, there are lies on both sides. But only one side so eagerly consumes them."

And they are slippery. Cornered by facts, they shout "Okay then whatabout...."

THAT is the real reason that wager demands work. Their TOP trait is that they pick a particular assertion and don't let go. That assertion remains the actual topic until the facts are acknowledged. It's why they flee.

----
"So... the blue party celebrates diversity, and the red party celebrates dishonesty."

Let's be clear. The Union side in this civil war has an obnoxious wing of sactimony junkies who ARE deeply dishonest, whose superficial/stated goals are admirable but who quite often betray them in their hunger for self-righteousness addiction highs.

The DIRECTION they want us to go is the right one. I am an ally. But they oftencare more about crushing allies - as Orwell depicted in the left in the SPanish Civil War - than creating a winning coalition. They are THE biggest reason Fox-ism stays politically relevant.

----
Brocolli-dissing ranks way-low on my list of reasons Bush Sr was by far the worst president of the 20th Century.

Paradoctor said...

Larry Hart:
"There ain't no Santy Claus" is folk wisdom. I did not celebrate Santa-mas with my daughter, but I did initiate her into skepticism via the Tooth Fairy. Later I wrote a fantasy story for her, in which Santa tearfully confessed his nonexistence to Sogwa the Supercat. Sogwa forgave him.

Larry Hart said...

@Paradoctor,

My brother and his wife, both teachers, used to bring their kids to visit around Christmastime because that's when their school schedules allowed. For reasons I won't get into here, they had never had their kids believe Santa Claus was real, but my daughter--the kids' cousin--still did. This was when my daughter was maybe 5 or 6.

At one point, her cousins started to mention something about Santa not being real*, and she just cut them off. She did not want to hear it. She must have already suspected the way of things, but wanted to keep the fiction plausible for as long as possible.** I suppose that's how kids learn doublethink as well.

* Sadly, by not being initiated into the club, my niece and nephew also didn't learn the benefit of being "in the know" and keeping the fiction alive for the young'uns

** Like our host's traeki character, Asx, who could believe that something didn't happen because the wax memory of the event hadn't hardened yet.

Howard Brazee said...

Kids understand play-acting. And when parents "play" at being Santa from an early age, it is natural to them that Santa is a game.

Now my son is 50 but claims to still believe in the tooth fairy, after all there's no downside. But if he expects money under his pillow the next time he loses a tooth, he will be disappointed.

David Brin said...

" But if he expects money under his pillow the next time he loses a tooth, he will be disappointed."

Unless you make sure he's not. ;-)

Unknown said...

Marx: "I am not a Marxist"

That statement, in full, makes a lot of sense in context. He was commenting on a heated discussion in which he stated that if these people were Marxists, he was not a Marxist. "...ce qu'il y a de certain c'est que moi, je ne suis pas marxiste."

Imagine a historical Jesus listening to modern Christians discussing the Trinity with a WTF look on his face.

Pappenheimer

A.F. Rey said...

" But if he expects money under his pillow the next time he loses a tooth, he will be disappointed."

Unless you make sure he's not. ;-)


Yeah...I'm not sure even the Tooth Fairy will want anymore the tooth that a 50-year-old loses. :p

Larry Hart said...

Happy Arrest-mas.

Who says there is no Santa Claus?

Tim H. said...

Alfred, AIUI, the brussel sprouts on the market these days are a relatively new variety that taste "Less worse".

Alfred Differ said...

Tim H,

That is quite plausible. I live near the US West Coast banana port* and know the variety sold today isn't the one from my father's days. The brussel sprouts I can buy fresh are quite a bit larger than I remember them being from frozen bags.

I love the modern brussel sprout. I'll cut them up and throw them in the wok along with anything else and have no fear of busting my diet. Same goes for broccoli and its variants like brocciflower.

------

* I'm right near Port Hueneme. Once a week we get a big ship in port that unloads a mountain of green bananas that are quickly loaded on trucks and hauled huge distances. We also get big ships full of imported cars because our port can be secured in ways Long Beach can't. Half the port is used by the US Navy.

Alfred Differ said...

Pappenheimer,

F.A. Hayek was explicit in his demands (while alive) that people not refer to themselves as Hayekian. He lived to see how different Keynesians were from Keynes, didn't like it one bit, and didn't want it happening to him.

He was known to lament Keynes early demise stating that Keynes himself would have stopped some of the nonsense espoused in his name.

Robert said...

Alfred, AIUI, the brussel sprouts on the market these days are a relatively new variety that taste "Less worse".

A fair number of modern vegetables have been bred to taste "better" and have higher yields and better shelf life, losing a good bit of nutritional value in the process.

The nutritional values of some popular vegetables, from asparagus to spinach, have dropped significantly since 1950. A 2004 US study found important nutrients in some garden crops are up to 38% lower than there were at the middle of the 20th Century. On average, across the 43 vegetables analysed, calcium content declined 16%, iron by 15% and phosphorus by 9%. The vitamins riboflavin and ascorbic acid both dropped significantly, while there were slight declines in protein levels. Similar decreases have been observed in the nutrients present in wheat.

https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/why-modern-food-lost-its-nutrients

David Brin said...

Anyone got a link on the new, better Brussels Sprouts? Arguing wif my sons about that.

Tony Fisk said...

Nobody willing to raise Reagan's "I have just signed legislation outlawing the Soviet Union. We begin bombing in ten minutes...oh, is this mike on?" moment?

I recall my mother's harsh discipline toward brocolli (borne of dealing with wartime foodstuffs). I like brocolli, even so. However, I commiserated with Bush Sr's brocolli lament at the time. The job *surely* has to have some perks? Apparently not.

In her early teen rebel phase, my daughter made up a small sign for the bathroom.
It shows a head of brocolli labelled 'toilet brush'. (She likes brocolli too. Yes she does!)

Alfred Differ said...

https://www.wytv.com/news/daybreak/brussel-sprouts-have-been-altered-to-taste-better/


https://blog.mr-fothergills.co.uk/fascinating-facts-brussels-sprouts/


Only here at CB!
The Best in Brussel Sprouts News!

Larry Hart said...

Tony Fisk:

Nobody willing to raise Reagan's "I have just signed legislation outlawing the Soviet Union. We begin bombing in ten minutes...oh, is this mike on?" moment?


Reagan was pretending to do a mike-check and purposely lampooned a caricature of himself. Because the mike was actually on, it became an embarrassment, but it wasn't a lie.

And IIRC, he actually said "outlawing Russia forever," which in retrospect might have been prescient.

Darrell E said...

Alfred Differ,

I grew up on military bases too. I know exactly what you mean about lousy produce. There are many foods I disparaged as a kid and then some time later had a 'holy cow' kind of moment when I came across good examples of it. Pretty much all vegetables. Lima beans were the worst. Actually threw up once, and got in trouble for it. Canned peaches never had anything to recommend them. Slimy, gelatinous things. I think I actually preferred the ones out of the Korean War era C-Rations some friends and I used to eat for fun. But then one day (in my 20s maybe?) I had a ripe fresh peach. Wow!

Not limited to produce either. Growing up the only fish I knew was frozen stuff from the commissary. Horrible stuff. Then we moved to a base right on the beach in my high school years and I experienced fresh caught snapper. Wow!

I think the reason for the stark differences is food quality probably had more to do with the differences in technology and transportation rather than military vs civilian. Back in the 70s frozen and canned foods were generally pretty bad, and fresh was only possible if it was very local and in season.

Darrell E said...

Blogger Robert said...

""Just got through reading the J6 Trump Indictment. It clearly supports my views on Trump and the Republican Party. As did the Documents Indictment."

And how many people will actually do that? Because the emails I got this morning from Pence, Banks, Carson, and many others (over two dozen in all) just called them witch-hunts that proved the Dems were corrupt using the DoJ to fight political vendettas and end democracy forever. But with more random capitalization and appeals for cash donations, as well as ads for cannabis and guns.

How many American reporters have read the actual indictments and used that in their reporting?

Come to that, any bets on how many politicians have done so? (Themselves, as opposed to their staff.)"


Hadn't you heard? Fake news! The DP is using the DOJ as a weapon!

Yeah, it's frustrating. Especially as all of the evidence comes from RP politicians and their staff, all of whom were / are Trump supporters.

Larry Hart said...

Malcolm Nance tells it like it is. A one and a half minute video, which I hope isn't paywalled.

https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/trump-trial-a-quick-note-from-washington

Larry Hart said...

The obvious...

https://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2023/08/new-trump-indictment-trump-didnt-give.html

Again and again, what comes through in the indictment, as it did in the report of the January 6 committee, is that Trump and his lawyer lackeys and lickspittles all thought that Democrats are simply not valid as voters or, indeed, as citizens. In fact, no one is really, truly American unless they support Donald Trump and would be willing to go to the barricades for him, quite literally on January 6, 2021. You are someone who is just trying to count votes? Fuck you, you're part of a conspiracy. You're a Republican elections official certifying votes that show Trump lost? Fuck you, you're RINO. You're a judge who rules that reality is actually real? Fuck you, you're a deep state puppet.

Robert said...

Hadn't you heard? Fake news! The DP is using the DOJ as a weapon!

Just got that from Newsmax this morning. Along with the astounding news that climate change is a myth, and there is absolutely no evidence connecting carbon dioxide to climate change. (Yes, both claims in the same blurb.) They aren't even bothered to make a given claim internally logical — just throw 'talking points' together and ask for money.

It's a bit like those Macedonian teenagers that started the whole fake news thing, or Nigerian scammers — they are deliberately targeting people who won't or can't think logically for even a single paragraph, because they are more easily conned out of money.

Tim H. said...

Scroll down to contemporary Brussels Sprouts, for their take on the origins of what's on the shelves now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_sprout

A quick search shows heirloom seeds available.

scidata said...

Two years ago when I was blue-skying my SELDON I processor, the big decision was gate architecture (transistors). I looked at several bleeding edge technologies, but they were way beyond this farmboy. So, I stuck with the venerable MOSFET.

As Paradoctor pointed out above, the LK-99 superconductor uses tunneling. An almost forgotten device (from the 1960s IIRC) is the Tunnel Field Effect Transistor (TFET). Extremely low power, crazily quantum, possibly superconductorable. Huh. As Chang said in LOST HORIZON, laziness in doing stupid things is sometimes a virtue. The world waits with bated breath for LK-99, Betelgeuse, and other verdicts.

Tim H. said...

Someone ran a poll on whether children should be taught Arabic numbers in school, 57% said no. Even considering the deck was stacked by not naming them Hindu-Arabic* numbers, but still an alarming display of ignorance, comparable to the individual who allegedly claimed the French had no word for "Entrepreneur".

*I suspect the way that went is Arab traders saw numbers as used in India, recognized a good thing and adopted them, as did Europeans, eventually.

reason said...

Tim H - I just googled "Arabic numbers" - I think you actually mean "Arabic numerals".

Larry Hart said...

I leaned them in grade school as Hindu-Arabic numbers, before I knew what a Hindu was.

locumranch said...

An interesting take on conflict resolution being dependent on the belief that "both sides make good points":

I recently suggested that Dr. Brin's actual beliefs are nigh impossible to pin down because he appears to promote both Order & Chaos in equal & contrarian amounts as to maintain a balanced "sweet spot" (my words) or "a metastable state" (his words) between the two states, whereas Tacitus accuses Dr. Brin of being "a Manichean who sees Good/Evil, Guilty/Innocent and Right/Wrong as binary outcomes".

I bring this up only to suggest that Tacitus & I are both correct as Dr. Brin has apparently adopted a pro-metastable position when it comes to Order & Chaos, but a morally Manichean position when it comes to Good & Evil.

This conclusion only serves to clarify the incredibly slippery nature of Dr. Brin's 'Moral Turpitude Game' in regard to "legal definitions to many turpitudes (which supposedly allow that) they can be enumerated for wager comparison", the problem being that legal & moral definitions are not the same, as exemplified by the case of Sodomy which is universally believed to be bad & immoral by the conservative right but is currently celebrated as both legal & therefore good by the progressive left.

And, speaking further of sucker bets & fixed competitions, the progressive left's decision to indite a former US President for crimes that he may have committed as a sitting US President is a giant game changer (plus an exercise in brinkmanship) of the most ill-advised sort, bringing us ever closer to Total Systems Failure & a New Civil War.


Best

Larry Hart said...

locumranch:

the progressive left's decision to indite [sic] a former US President


Your bias is showing. Jack Smith is not a progressive leftist. Neither is Merrick Garland, for that matter. Your fallacy is assuming that any attempt to prosecute Trump's crimes is politically motivated, where in fact the opposite is true--any attempt to excuse his crimes is politically motivated.

Alfred Differ said...

I learned them as having come from Sanskrit and migrating to anyone who had at least half a brain.

The older method adopted by the Romans from pretty much everyone else makes sense in a world where writing essentially means carving. Pictographic language makes sense for the same reason. Once one shifts to ink, though, syllabic/phonetic systems and numeral placement ideas become competitive.

LOTS of our ideas come from cultures found in east and south Asia. That's a statement that should be obvious now that we have an idea for how modern humans migrated across the Earth, how they adapted to melting ice, and general estimates of population sizes.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

Once one shifts to ink, though, syllabic/phonetic systems and numeral placement ideas become competitive.


The Roman method is barely useful for addition, and not at all useful for multiplication and other higher math. Numerals as we use them today are much more useful in that context.

Plus, the Hindu-Arabic system had a zero.

Unknown said...

There's a great scene in DeCamp's "Lest Darkness Fall" where our intrepid time-travelling hero secures a loan from a Roman banker by demonstrating and then promising to teach modern (Arabic) math to his bookkeepers.

(of course, there's a follow up scene where he finds out the banker has been selling the system to his fellow bankers)

Pappenheimer

Larry Hart said...

OTOH, nothing beats the Roman system for counting World Wars and Super Bowls, not to mention noting the years in which movies are released.

David Brin said...


“because he appears to…”. Yes, yes locumranch we know all about how the world ‘appears’ to you in flatland sepia. But if that were all of it, there’d sometimes be a mapping from our 4-D world to your 2-D one. Hence since that NEVER happens, the other explanation kicks in. You’re nuts.

Whatever writhing excuses, BTW… statistically verified comparable rates of gambling, addiction, domestic violence, STDs, teen sex, divorce, all the way to net tax parasitism are all utterly non-subjective. If ANY of those metrics favored red-run states (except Utah), MAGAs would rush to take my money. wager demands are rigged only because all FACTS are rigged against them.

Alfred: Romans did drafts of their tallies and documents on wax boards which woulda been fine with rapid lettering.

Paradoctor said...

My Epimenidean Political Quote list has another entry:

Dubya Bush: "If I decide to do it, by definition it's good policy."

Larry Hart said...

@Paradoctor,

Nixon: "If the president does it, then it is not illegal."

W Bush: "Dictatorship is easier...as long as I'm the dictator."

Trump: "Article II says I can do anything I want."

Paradoctor said...

Hart:
My theme is reality-bending; so the first one fits fine. The other two are about power-seeking; related but not the same.

So now the list stands at:

Reagan: “Facts are stupid things.”
Nixon: “Everything I say is self-serving.”
Nixon: “If the president does it, then it is not illegal.”
Dubya Bush: “If I decide to do it, by definition it’s good policy.”
Karl Rove: “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.”
Kellyanne Conway: “You’re saying it’s a falsehood and Sean Spicer... gave alternative facts...”
Trump, to Pence: “You’re too honest.”
Marx: “I am not a Marxist.”
And let’s not forget:
Goebbels: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”

Howard Brazee said...

"There's a great scene in DeCamp's "Lest Darkness Fall" where our intrepid time-travelling hero secures a loan from a Roman banker by demonstrating and then promising to teach modern (Arabic) math to his bookkeepers.

(of course, there's a follow up scene where he finds out the banker has been selling the system to his fellow bankers)"

It's been decades since I read it, didn't he introduce double-entry bookkeeping?

Howard Brazee said...

"OTOH, nothing beats the Roman system for counting World Wars and Super Bowls, not to mention noting the years in which movies are released."

But I really enjoyed Super Bowl 50!!!

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

My theme is reality-bending; so the first one fits fine. The other two are about power-seeking; related but not the same.


I thought all three said pretty much the same thing.

And while you might have a point about W's "dictator" quote, Trump's definitely bent reality. Article II doesn't say anything remotely like that. In fact, it says the opposite thing--that the president is a functionary, definitely constrained by checks and balances, and with limited powers.

Unknown said...

Howard,

Double-entry, too. As I recall, he tried to invent gunpowder and failed. Which was all for the best, because "Foreign Wizard Blows Self Up" might have been a likely headline in his newspaper.

Robert said...

The Roman method is barely useful for addition, and not at all useful for multiplication and other higher math. Numerals as we use them today are much more useful in that context.

The Egyptian system is interesting. I recommend checking out this book:

https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691160122/count-like-an-egyptian

Paradoctor said...

Hart:
Trump did bend reality, in order to seek power. But in that particular quote he didn't praise reality-bending itself. Conway's 'alternative facts' did.

Tony Fisk said...

It's interesting that we settled on a ten based number system.
The standard explanation is 'ten fingers', but, by ticking off the three bones in each finger with ypur thumb, you can comfortably count in twelves, with one hand.

Ah well.

Alfred Differ said...

Larry (& anyone drawn to mathematics history),

There is a distinction between writing a number and calculating a number. Romans had their way of writing them, but they also had their local equivalent of an abacus. Practically every culture had something like an abacus whether it used beads, knots on ropes, or pebbles in grooves. Such tools are used for calculating and tend to be positional representations of numbers. You CAN add Roman numeral style numbers using string concatenation and replacement rules, but that's not what they really did in the markets.

———

There is also a distinction between addition and multiplication few remember because the history has been obscured. Many US schools teach multiplication as multiple addition, but that's not its origin. Multiplication was born from geometry as the operation that produces areas from line measures. Its inverse (division) is also a creature of geometry and related to the inheritance problem even though our schools tend to use the sharing problem to teach it.

The other sibling for multiplication that shows its geometric roots… is the taking of roots… which is related to division or factoring. All of these are geometric siblings.

———

I don't think a number representation system was intended (historically) to be a calculation system. We made the same kind of distinction between written and spoken languages up until fairly recently. Remove the vowels from the words in this post and you'll probably still pick up most of the meaning, right? A positional representation for numbers is kind of like an abacus representation, though, and we've recently found some value in merging them.

On top of that, mixing the math needed for markets with that needed for geometry would have seemed alien to our more learned ancestors. We've pulled them together lately and found ways to do each in the other. Unfortunately, most of us aren't taught the history well enough to know that we've done it let alone why.

Tony Fisk said...

Having lost contact with Voyager 2, NASA has announced they've regained it.

Howard Brazee said...

Alfred Differ said:

"I don't think a number representation system was intended (historically) to be a calculation system."

No. As is writing the numbers out as in "Two-hundred and twelve divided by four".

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

Trump did bend reality, in order to seek power. But in that particular quote he didn't praise reality-bending itself.


I fail to see any functional difference between Nixon's "If the president does it..." and Trump's "Article II says..." quotes. Both are equally asserting that the president is above the law, not because of cheating, but because the law itself says he can. If anything, Trump's line is more reality-bending, because Nixon's "then it is not illegal" only infers that the law somehow backs him up, while Trump's explicit appeal to Article II asserts right out that the Constitution says something that it not only doesn't say, but says the opposite of.

Howard Brazee said...

Nixon believed that law and truth could be manipulated.
Trump believes that law and truth and reality don't matter.

Tony Fisk said...

@Alfred Interesting observation about differing schools of thought on calculating.

It helps explain the bemused sense I had, when doing an accounting course, that these people played with numbers without the use of mathematics.

Larry Hart said...

Tony Fisk:

It's interesting that we settled on a ten based number system.


If humans had eight fingers instead of ten, we'd be using base-8, which would have been so much more compatible with binary. There's have been no need to mess with number systems based on anything other than powers of 2. Ten fingers and ten toes makes an argument against intelligent design. :)

In retrospect, I wonder where five fingers came from biologically. I can see a limb splitting off into two and then into four, but five? And it's not just primates either. Cats and (I assume) dogs also have five toes on each paw (all exceptions duly noted). Five digits seems to be somehow "natural", but why?

Larry Hart said...

Howard Brazee:

As is writing the numbers out as in "Two-hundred and twelve divided by four".


And yet, the following equation:
ELEVEN PLUS TWO = TWELVE PLUS ONE

does hold true, both as a mathematical proposition and as an anagrammatical one.

"How much longer can I go on being an atheist?"

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

A positional representation for numbers is kind of like an abacus representation, though, and we've recently found some value in merging them.



That sounds similar to the distinction between representing derivatives as f'(x) vs dy/dx. You can use either one to indicate the derivative of a function, but you can do so much more afterwards with the dy/dx notation.


On top of that, mixing the math needed for markets with that needed for geometry would have seemed alien to our more learned ancestors. We've pulled them together lately and found ways to do each in the other.


I had an almost-religious experience about math when I was a very wee lad. I was drawing out by hand a multiplication table by filling in a row at a time and noticed how the invisible hand then also filled in the columns. I had a very satisfying epiphany which I was too young to express in words, but which I have since summed up as, "Math works!" The exclamation point is a necessary piece which describes the excitement inherent in the revelation.

The same faith and confidence is at work debugging and troubleshooting code for my job, or assisting my mother in balancing her checkbook.

Larry Hart said...

Howard Brazee:

Trump believes that law and truth and reality don't matter.


Maybe he has all six Infinity Stones. Or at least that Roger Stone and Steve Bannon have assured him that the stones are within reach.

It might explain his Mule powers.

Howard Brazee said...

Larry Hart said:

"If humans had eight fingers instead of ten, we'd be using base-8, which would have been so much more compatible with binary. There's have been no need to mess with number systems based on anything other than powers of 2. Ten fingers and ten toes makes an argument against intelligent design. :)"

But we chose 12/24 hours and 60 minutes as having more useful divisions than binary. So much of our life is based upon 1/3 of a day.

Larry Hart added:

"In retrospect, I wonder where five fingers came from biologically. I can see a limb splitting off into two and then into four, but five? And it's not just primates either. Cats and (I assume) dogs also have five toes on each paw (all exceptions duly noted). Five digits seems to be somehow "natural", but why?"

Evolution doesn't plan. If a random characteristic doesn't hurt us, it sticks around.

Larry Hart said...


Evolution doesn't plan. If a random characteristic doesn't hurt us, it sticks around.


That doesn't explain why a characteristic shows up in so many independent species.

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