More Space! Expanding the cosmos

You thought I was done talking about space?  We are currently living through the most exciting time for astronomy and spaceflight and expanding our horizons since the 1970s... cool stuff is happening monthly!  

I don't know which to be more amazed-at. The wonders spilling forth from human competence and cooperative effort... or the astonishing silliness of a people who paid for it all, and cannot turn their head to be cheered by such wonders!

== Universal expansion? Tweeking the biggest question ==

Thirty years ago, it was still an open question whether our universe was “open” or “closed.” If closed, then gravity would eventually overcome the expansion set in motion by the Big Bang, reversing the dispersal of galaxies, commencing infall to a Big Crunch. 

This possible destiny led Tulane University physicist Frank Tipler to author one of the most entertaining, dense and infuriating “popular” science books, THE PHYSICS OF IMMORTALITY — a stunning just-so story about the final era, just before the Final Crunch, when our godlike descendants might collect every photon lingering from earlier eras and study every ray, including those that your body emitted, on a cool night, and thereby they would know enough about you — trillions of years from now — to model-resurrect you into infinite computational realms at the end of time…

Did that just make sense? Sorry. Tipler’s tome is one of the more ornate science fantasy speculations, ever, almost infinitely entertaining! And it would have merited calling Tipler the ‘greatest theologian of the 20th Century.’ That is, if we did seem headed for a Crunch.

(Side note: see the Big Crunch... and its aftermath... portrayed vividly in Poul Anderson's classic novel Tau Zero.  It also feature's in Liu Cixin's The Three Body Problem.)

Ah, but the Big Crunch appears to have been ruled out. Instead, the greatest theologian encomium belongs to another physicist, Freeman Dyson, who appraised how long creatures made of matter might eke out continuation of thought and life amid a Big Dissipation into nothingness that might extend trillions, even quadrillions of years. 

Indeed, that seems to be the direction of things, especially since studies of a particular kind of supernova provided us with a Standard Candle to measure the rate of universal expansion… which we now perceive to be speeding up!  Propelled into acceleration by something theoretical called “dark energy.”

Well, well.  Science oscillates, even as we bracket in, edging closer to true models of reality.  The latest news?  Some University of Arizona astronomers now think those Standard Candles — type 1a supernovas — might come in two types, and one kind might have been more common in the early universe.  If so, the resulting mis-calibration of distances might have had an effect upon those Hubble Expansion factors, causing us to exaggerate the perceived acceleration of the universe….

… a bit.  Maybe. Not enough to reverse the expansion!  Indeed, I am a bit doubtful and would put a burden of proof on those contending that type-1a supernovae were different in the early universe.  Still… how cool to live in such times!  

(Unless that very coolness is a clue?  See my short story “Reality Check.”)

Oh but stay tuned for the next shaker!  That type 1a supernovas might be influenced/altered by... dark matter!

= Another "universal rule" of the cosmos revived? =

The Titius-Bode law was formulated around 1770 and correctly calculated the position of Uranus before it was even discovered. Under this rule-of-thumb, the ratio between the orbital period of the first and second planet is the same as the ratio between the second and the third planet and so on. Now a group of Australians and Danes claim that “We decided to use this method to calculate the potential planetary positions in 151 planetary systems, where the Kepler satellite had found between 3 and 6 planets. In 124 of the planetary systems, the Titius-Bode law fit with the position of the planets as good as or better than our own solar system.”

If this is true, then the T-B law is resurrected from the dead, because I knew of very few  astronomers who gave it credence, deeming it quasi-mystical.  In fact, if these ratios hold up (and I’ll want to see it verified) it would  rank as among the most important discoveries of the Kepler mission or, indeed, planetary science.  Moreover: “Using T-B’s law we tried to predict where there could be more planets further out in the planetary systems.”

Mind you, this flies in the face of a major Kepler discovery, that a vast fraction of planetary systems hug closer to their star that the orbit of Mercury, including massive Jovian gas giants.  Many planetologists hold that this indicates systems that shift orbits considerably, especially in their early epochs. A result that cannot be consistent with the authors’ claims of a powerful Titus-Bode resonance. At least, it’s hard to reconcile.

My, what times.  Oh, but there's more!

== The cosmos is a lonely place ==

A new study indicates that alien super civilizations are absent from 100,000 nearby galaxies: Lee Billings — now astro-editor at Scientific American — explores the implications of a recent search for Kardashev level-3 civilizations. An important part of possibility space! (So to speak.) And also quoting me. Here’s the salon version: The universe is a lonely place.

And see the original paper. Griffith, White, Maldonado et. al  sampled 10,000+ galaxies for the kind of infrared excess that might indicate Kardashev Type III civilization, which might tap all of the energy output of a galaxy. None of their sampled galaxies showed signs that a vastly powerful society is utilizing more than 85% of their stellar output and re-emitting the energy as waste heat. 

If you think about it, that is both a big result and not surprising. If there are no Kardashev Type III civs, that still leaves it possible for perhaps many type K 2.5 societies… that have surrounded "only" a billion of their galaxy's hundred billion stars with Dyson spheres (as I kind of depict in Heaven's Reach.) This paper leaves that Partial-Kardashev level still quite possible.

“If Hart’s reasoning is sound, then we should expect that, unless intelligent, spacefaring life is unique to Earth in the local universe, other galaxies should have galaxy-spanning supercivilizations, and a search for K3’s may be fruitful. If there is a flaw in it, then intelligent, spacefaring life may be endemic to the Milky Way in the form of many K2’s, in which case a search within the Milky Way would be more likely to succeed. It is prudent, therefore,

to pursue both routes.”

Hm... we've only just begun exploring the possibilities.  This result is -- as I said -- both huge... and unsurprising.  And the plethora of remaining possibilities....

== Messaging the cosmos ==

Regarding "Messaging ExtraTerrestrial Intelligences,"  Doug Vakoch – in a short paper for the Astrobiology Science Conference in Chicago -- has added another pro-METI argument:  "Economic Exchange:  An alternative rationale for  conducting an Active SETI project calls into question  the assumption that ETI is altruistically transmitting  signals for our benefit, without requiring anything of us  in advance. However, perhaps interstellar communication is a sort of economic  exchange, in which civilizations share valuable information with one another in a  multigenerational form of reciprocal altruism [3 ] . We  see examples of reciprocal altruism in a variety of species on Earth, and such behavior can be modeled with  game theory, for example, with the Tit for Tat scenario.  But in every case of reciprocal altruism, one party needs to take the initiative ; someone needs to make the  first gesture of generosity."

How utterly bizarre! 

By raising my own argument -- that quid-pro-quo is more common in nature than altruism -- he drops out the most important implication! That our culture/music/art/ and other products of human creativity are our trade goods, of great value. His own assertion makes his ally, Seth Shostak -- who wants to beam "the whole internet" into space -- a would-be traitor to humanity, for aiming to impoverish our kids, by giving away all our trade goods, for free!

In any event quid-pro-quo is NOT the same thing as "reciprocal altruism." The later is more rare and requires extensive reasons for trust, that will not be present at the beginning.

Here's the crux for my friend Doug, "someone needs to make the first gesture of generosity" begs the question of why he assumes the party who has the least information or situational awareness has to be the initiator!  Carl Sagan said that the elder races should "do the heavy lifting."  Nothing about that sage advice has changed.

Mind you, the list of talks and topics at the Chicago Astrobiology Science Conference (coming in June) is simply stunning in its breadth and depth and sheer numbers of researchers engaged in a field that was once a small, side niche topic.  Attend if you can!

== Traveling the cosmos? ==

And...  Okay, SMBC does it again!  Only he left out a major clue to this being a simulation.  A Speed Limit that prevents the test subjects from going and inspecting the crude “stars” and “planets” out there!   Of course, to see this concept explored in much more depth, see “Stones of Significance.”  

Spaceward Ho! Brian McConnell and Alexander Tolley lay down their argument for “spacecoach” interplanetary ships that usewater for life, for shielding and as propellant.  

Roger Shawyer, the British scientist who invented the highly controversial electromagnetic space propulsion technology called EmDrive, claims that NASA Johnson Space Center’s Eagleworks lab has verified his propellant-free, microwave-based propulsion system in hard vacuum.  

As for the em-drive, I am intrigued, of course.  As you know, I am on the board of external advisers for NASA's Innovative and Advanced Concepts group (NIAC), and I have an open mind.  I have, for example, never believed there was an inherent conflict with conservation of momentum.

On the other hand, look at the quality of journalism in the linked article and indeed, the articles to which it links.  If this is true, we won't be getting anything definitive from such sources. It'll take a little while. 

As for talk of increasing power by FIVE orders of magnitude? Well, that'd certainly nail it!  Moreover, the key thing is that Shawyer seems to be getting all the funding -- and competition -- that he needs.  Given that, I am happy to sit back and wait. 

Can the Earth be conscious?  A question I explored from several angles, in my novel, EARTH.  This essay ponders it seriously. "So, even without asking if planets are literally alive, we still can ask meaningful questions about life and planets "co-evolving." We can see it makes real scientific sense to understand life as more than just some green scruff forming on a planet's surface. Thus, even if biospheres don't control planets, they can still play huge roles in how those planets change in time."  And... "This is a particularly important point to consider as we enter the so-called Anthropocene, an era when humans become the dominant force on the Earth's systems."

meanwhile...

Recent one-dimensional (globally averaged) climate model calculations by Goldblatt etal. (2013) suggest that increased atmospheric CO2 could conceivably trigger a runaway greenhouse on present Earth if CO2 con- centrations were approximately 100 times higher than they are today. The new prediction runs contrary to previous calculations by Kasting and Ackerman (1986), which indicated that CO2 increases could not trigger a runaway, even at Venus-like CO2 concentrations.  Prof. James Kasting and his former student Ramses Ramirez suggest that such a runaway to Venus-like conditions is unlikely in the near term.  But all members of this community agree that we should still be far more prudent about the climate. 

And finally... Re: climate change and the GOP, this comic says it all... 

Seriously.  Morons.  Waging outright war on science and every other field of human sagacity.  If you are conservative or libertarian, this rises above all other considerations.  If you are even remotely thinking of voting for the obscenity that has taken over the Republican Party, then you are at very best an utter fool.   This is not "left versus  right."

It is normal (with bits of foolishness and corruption... versus stark jibbering insane.

Moreover, deep down, you know it.