Monday, November 11, 2013

Liberals, you must reclaim Adam Smith

I've said it before and must (alas) repeat it ad nauseam. Many of our modern struggles -- in the U.S. and across advanced societies -- could be altered if both sides actually (for the first time) read Adam Smith.  

the-theory-of-moral-sentimentsThe left would learn that he  was not the  viciously cruel exploiter of the masses that dopey campus ranters portray him, but rather, the first modern thinker to propose a generally flat and fair (if highly competitive) society, one moderated with many kindnesses that he defended in The Theory of Moral Sentiments. Though yes, he maintained that society could better afford kindness if it maintained a vibrantly creative -competitive marketplace for great new products and services. A forecast of stunning accuracy.
Conservatives would realize that Smith praised competition as the greatest creative force… but that competition's top enemy is not always a government civil servant!  There is another, older enemy of enterprise and freedom, that crushed opportunity and competition in 99% of societies across 6000 years. The principal enemy of freedom and markets denounced by Smith was monopolistic or conspiratorial oligarchy, of exactly the kind that the American Founders rebelled-against.
Here's a summary I found recently:  "Ironically, Smith's epic work The Wealth of Nations, which was first published in 1776, presents a radical condemnation of business monopolies sustained and protected by the state, in service of a lordly owner-caste. Adam Smith's ideal was a market comprised of small buyers and sellers. He showed how the workings of such a market would tend toward a price that provides a fair return to land, labor, and capital, produce a satisfactory outcome for both buyers and sellers, and result in an optimal outcome for society in terms of the allocation of its resources.
WealthNations"He made clear, however, that this outcome can result only when no buyer or seller is sufficiently large to influence the market price—a point many who invoke his name prefer not to mention. Such a market implicitly assumes a significant degree of equality in the distribution of economic power—another widely neglected point." (excerpted from David C. Korten's book, When Corporations Rule the World.)
It is an argument made forcefully later by Friedrich Hayek, another genius whom the right idolizes in abstract, while betraying almost everything that Hayek stood for, such as maximizing the number of skilled, empowered and knowledgable competitors and thwarting conspiracies among monopolists and oligarchs, whether those were rooted in government bureaucracy or in narrow owner elites.
This was the point of the Progressive Movement 100 years ago, creating anti-trust laws that shattered the then-looming Gilded Age oligarchy and restored competition to American markets.  It had to be done again in the 1930s and 1940s, resulting in the flattest and most vibrantly entrepreneurial society and fastest-rising middle class the world had ever seen (and shocking the hell out of Marxists, who thought their teleological forecasts could never be reformed away.)
That flattish society (I call it "diamond-shaped) was the product of reforms instituted by the "Greatest Generation" that is much admired on the American Right, for overcoming a depression and Hitler and containing communism.  Alas, for their narrative, the Greatest Generation also adored Franklin… Delano… Roosevelt. Their innovations so reduced class disparities and class friction in America that the Boomer generation grew up assuming that such things were behind us forever.
== But human nature had not been abolished.  ==
ClassWarLessonsHistoryAlas, "class struggle" is a sure theme of our present times. As Smith would tell you, cheaters always find a way to come back, as the flat social order is once again being crushed by skyrocketing (French Revolution-level)  wealth disparities, monopoly and oligarchy.  Raising the question… can Americans do it again?  React not with radicalism or excesses like socialism, but with steel-eyed moderate reforms that restore flat and open competition for another generation? History shows far more instances of the former, than the latter.
"In the real world of unregulated markets, successful players get larger and in many instances use the resulting economic power to drive or buy out weaker players to gain control of ever larger shares of the market. In other instances "competitors" collude through cartels or strategic alliances to increase profits by setting market prices above the level of optimal efficiency. The larger individual and more collusive market players become, the more difficult it is for newcomers and small independent firms to survive, the more monopolistic and less competitive the market becomes, and the more political power the biggest firms wield behind demands for concessions from governments that allow them to externalize ever more of their costs to the community," writes David C. Korten.
AdamSmithREgulationAdam Smith again said it best, defying the stereotypes and cliched images of him.
"When the regulation, therefore, is in support of the workman, it is always just and equitable; but it is sometimes otherwise when in favor of the masters.”
He saw a tacit conspiracy on the part of employers "always and everywhere” to keep wages as low as possible.
Does that sound like the guy who you were taught believed only in dog-eat-dog?  Or that only billionaires are "job-creators"?
No wonder today's "libertarians" -- all-too caught up in the hallucinatory web spun by Rand and Rothbard and by Koch-financed "think tanks" like Heritage and Cato -- never refer anymore to the "First Liberal" and the founder of true libertarianism.  Because Adam Smith would remind them that the real foe of enterprise has -- for 6000 years -- been owner-oligarchy and monopoly.  The very forces that are rigging our elections and subsidizing propaganda that has driven a third of our neighbors crazy, re-igniting the American Civil War.  So crazy, they proclaim that only government bureaucrats can harm capitalism, enterprise or freedom.
(A side note: I dare anyone to attribute my assertions here to a scintilla of leftism! Competition is the great, creative driver of our positive sum markets, science, democracy... It is in defense of those creatively competitive arenas that we must, today, face down a bizarre madness that has taken over the American Right.)
(But hang on till the end of this posting, to when I cite a very high authority on this!)
== Smith… the judo master ==
The crux is this. If liberals (and not their crazy leftist allies) want to do a real jiu jitsu move on the mad right, instead of engaging in futile sumo… then liberals should with agility reclaim the "First Liberal" -- Adam Smith -- and hammer their opponents with him! It is the one move that would take them utterly by surprise, winning over millions of moderates and small businessmen.  Try saying this:
"We like competition and open-flat and fair markets!  They are the wealth generators that then enabled us to take on great projects like education and science and helping the poor. The real destroyers of that healthy version of capitalism were denounced by Adam Smith, and by the American founders -- monopolists and secretive cheaters, and those who would be lord-owners of everything. Getting rich by innovating new goods and services in a truly competitive market? That's great! Grabbing everything through cartels of cheaters? That is what Smith and the Founders denounced.

"So stop listening to paid shills pushing a return to feudalism! Come negotiate with us over how to keep it all open and healthy and competitive... and so productive that we can take on the countless challenges ahead."

Ah, but alas.  While American liberals seem not to be quite as crazy as the far-left or the entire-right, they do suffer from inertia and laziness and slavery to preconceptions.  I just described a winning judo move! But odds are they will keep trying to go belly to belly with those who are much better at political sumo.
At the bottom of this article you will find some amazing quotations from the father of flat-even-open-fair capitalism… everything that oligarchs and socialists both hate.

== The Cult of the Anti-Smiths ==
Want to see how blatant and hateful the apologists for oligarchy have become?  The latest monstrous rationalization (from Forbes): "Give Back? Yes, It's Time For The 99% To Give Back To The 1%."
Yes, it is randianism/murdochianism in full, shameless fury.  Please… please go read the rant, then come back here.  I'll wait.
Alas, as usual, this screed makes no distinction between the wealthy who actually built companies that coalesced the efforts of thousands of skilled engineers to deliver win-win goods and services -- e.g. Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, Steve Jobs --  

-- versus the other clade that became billionaires either via state-subsidized resource extraction or financial connivance among a cheater-cartel of 5000 CEO-caste golf-buddies.
The former group certainly deserve to be rich!  Though note, that most of the creative-goods-and-services billionaires are also … democrats! Who have signed the Buffett Giving Pledge and who express loyalty to the Smithian mixed society.  So much so that they support higher taxes on the rich! (See Larry Page's most recent effort to use his wealth to help us all in a win-win fight to halt aging.)
Alas, the wealthy lords whom Randians admire most as "job creators" do nothing of the kind. They are those whom Rand herself called "looters" while the tech moguls who are most like Ayn's beloved characters -- creatively brilliant and great managers of other peoples' brilliance -- are the very ones who hold no truck at all with randianism!  Huh.
WealthDisparitiesAbove all, it is in their betrayal of the true libertarian forefather (and also called the "first liberal") -- Adam Smith -- that today's 'libertarians' demonstrate the ultimate hypocrisy.  Which matters not a whit to those whose incantations march them (shouting hosannahs) back into chains of feudalism.
 == They hate what works ==
Getting closer to the news…. Hey. If it is so awful, why not let Obamacare run its course?
Economist Paul Krugman at his most cogent: "In a way, you can see why the food stamp program — or, to use its proper name, the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) — has become a target.  Conservatives are deeply committed to the view that the size of government has exploded under President Obama but face the awkward fact that public employment is down sharply, while overall spending has been falling fast as a share of G.D.P. 
(News flash, the latest figures show that the US federal deficit has plunged below 680 billion or 4.2% of GDP, well below the 5% threshold that most economists call "safe."  Look at the Second Derivative of deficits. The second derivative is ALWAYS positive during Republican administrations and almost always negative in democratic ones.  That single fact -- all by itself -- should make any non-hypocrite deficit hawk or person obsessed with fiscal responsibility a democrat. Period.  Flat and absolute.  But let's get back to Krugman.)
"SNAP, however, really has grown a lot, with enrollment rising from 26 million Americans in 2007 to almost 48 million now.  Conservatives look at this and see what, to their great disappointment, they can’t find elsewhere in the data: runaway, explosive growth in a government program. The rest of us, however, see a safety-net program doing exactly what it’s supposed to do: help more people in a time of widespread economic distress.
"The recent growth of SNAP has indeed been unusual, but then so have the times, in the worst possible way. The Great Recession of 2007-9 was the worst slump since the Great Depression, and the recovery that followed has been very weak…."
Read the rest. But above all recall that the core GOP narrative -- that there has been expanding overall federal government under Obama -- is a lie that is diametrically opposite to true, as the cutting of food assistance is diametrically opposite to moral.
That whirring sound?  Barry Goldwater wailing and spinning over what has happened to conservatism. Poor Barry.  How I miss him.
==  Political Ammo! ==
Okay, my periodic political rant is nearly over.  But let's begin our coda with someone who doesn't deserve a lot of respect, but who in this case makes a lot of sense:
BenefitAndTheBurdenBruce Bartlett, author of The Benefit and the Burden: Tax Reform – Why We Need It and What It Will Take, held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and also served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp as well as Ron Paul. So his conservative credentials are complete. And yet, in this article in The New York Times, Bartlett assays the lunatic fringe of the GOP that is now spreading the toxic meme that we should default on the debt as a GOOD thing ! 
What would drive a right winger like Bartlett to say such things? Michael Goldfarb in SALON appraises the roots of the Tea Party's radicalism in events of 1973… that a four-decade-long war on the press’s legitimacy began with conservative anger over the "lynching" of Richard M. Nixon from the presidency. The idea that it was a biased liberal press that made the molehill of Watergate into a mountain of Constitutional crisis took root:
"Under Reagan, Republican appointees on the FCC abolished the fairness doctrine, the  obligation for broadcasters to air both sides of controversial issues. This led to an explosion of opinionated propagandists on the airwaves relentlessly attacking “liberal” media. It continues to this day, degrading American public discourse.
"A Nixon media operative, Roger Ailes, discussed starting a Republican-slanted news program with the president pre-Watergate. Later, Ailes invented Fox News for Rupert Murdoch. Fox is one of the prime shapers of the hyper-partisan political culture that has made the U.S. practically ungovernable."
I found Goldfarb's insights interesting.  Though ultimately, he is wrong.  The roots lie in the Antebellum or pre-Civil War South.  In the romanticism of Sir Walter Scott that Mark Twain denounced in his own people. In a resentment that simmers like hot, kudzu-scented evenings.  We are still mired in a Civil War that is once more coming to a boil. 

Do not take it personally. We are not the true target of that rage.  It is the Future that is hated, with a bone-deep, cultural passion.  Why else would so many of our fellow citizens have exalted the one book of the Bible that proclaims, with relish and eager anticipation, that there will soon be no future of any kind, for our children or their posterity, anymore?  Nothing could be more symptomatic, or more decisively prove my point.

This has never, ever been about "left versus right." Karl Marx was long ago disproved and competition is to deeply woven into the sinew of all Americans for that ever to be the issue.

No… it's the future, all right.
= Rabbi Explains Why Both Left and Right are wrong. But Smith was right! =
"The rabbis favored markets and competition because they generate wealth, lower prices, increased choice, reduced absolute levels of poverty, and extend humanity’s control over the environment, narrowing the extent to which we are the passive victims of circumstance and fate. Competition releases energy and creativity and serves the general good.
"... However as the critics of capitalism pointed out, the market does not create a stable equilibrium. It engages in creative destruction, or as Daniel Bell put it, capitalism contains cultural contradictions. It tends to erode the moral foundations on which it was built. Specifically, as is manifest clear in contemporary Europe, it erodes the Judeo- Christian ethic that gave birth to it in the first place.
JonathanSacks"Instead of seeing the system as Adam Smith did, as a means of directing self- interest to the common good, it can become a means of empowering self-interest to the detriment of the common good. Instead of the market being framed by moral principles, it comes to substitute for moral principle. If you can buy it, negotiate it, earn it and afford it, then you are entitled to it – as the advertisers say – because you’re worth it. The market ceases to be merely a system and becomes an ideology in its own right.
"Fourth, no one who reads the Bible with its provisions for the remission of debts every seventh year could fail to understand how morally concerned it is to prevent the build up of indebtedness, of mortgaging freedom tomorrow for the sake of liberty today. The unprecedented levels of private and public debt in the West should have sent warning signals long ago that such a state of affairs was unsustainable in the long run. The Victorians knew what we have forgotten, that spending beyond your means is morally hazardous, however attractive it may be, and the system should not encourage it."
Heh.  I honestly wrote all of that stuff at the top of this column before reading this rabbinical teaching... which conveys almost the identical message, but with more eloquent persuasiveness.  Maybe I should have studied for another profession.
============Adam Smith Quotations! ==========

These might shock both leftists and rightists.  But liberals may wake up to rediscover the founder of their movement:


Our merchants and master-manufacturers complain much of the bad effects of high wages in raising the price, and thereby lessening the sale of their goods both at home and abroad. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high profits. They are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people.
Chapter IX, p. 117

People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices. It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty or justice. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary.
Chapter X, Part II, p. 152

Whenever the legislature attempts to regulate the differences between masters and their workmen, its counsellors are always the masters. When the regulation, therefore, is in favor of the workmen, it is always just and equitable; but it is sometimes otherwise when in favor of the masters.
Chapter x, Part II, p. 168

The interest of the dealers, however, in any particular branch of trade or manufactures, is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers.
Chapter XI, Part III, Conclusion of the Chapter, p. 292

The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it."
Chapter XI, Part III, Conclusion of the Chapter, p. 292

It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
Chapter II, Part II, Article I, p. 911

Every tax, however, is to the person who pays it a badge, not of slavery but of liberty. It denotes that he is a subject to government, indeed, but that, as he has some property, he cannot himself be the property of a master.
Chapter II, Part II, p. 927

Book III of Wealth Of Nations, chapter IV, see this amazing passage:

“But what all the violence of the feudal institutions could never have effected, the silent and insensible operation of foreign commerce and manufactures gradually brought about. These gradually furnished the great proprietors with something for which they could exchange the whole surplus produce of their lands, and which they could consume themselves without sharing it either with tenants or retainers. 

"All for ourselves and nothing for other people, seems, in every age of the world, to have been the vile maxim of the masters of mankind. As soon, therefore, as they could find a method of consuming the whole value of their rents themselves, they had no disposition to share them with any other persons.

" For a pair of diamond buckles, perhaps, or for something as frivolous and useless, they exchanged the maintenance, or what is the same thing, the price of the maintenance of a thousand men for a year, and with it the whole weight and authority which it could give them. The buckles, however, were to be all their own, and no other human creature was to have any share of them; whereas in the more ancient method of expence they must have shared with at least a thousand people. With the judges that were to determine the preference this difference was perfectly decisive; and thus, for the gratification of the most childish, the meanest, and the most sordid of all vanities, they gradually bartered their whole power and authority.”   [WN III.iv.10. p 418] 


A GOOD SOURCE FOR ALL THINGS ADAMSMITHIAN -
http://adamsmithslostlegacy.blogspot.com/search/label/Vile%20Maxim

MANY QUOTATIONS: http://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN21.html

SPREAD THE WORD!  LIBERALS, ADOPT YOUR FOUNDER… AND SEE HOW FANATICS OF BOTH THE FAR LEFT AND THE ENTIRE RIGHT SQUIRM!

Thursday, November 07, 2013

The dawn of a "predictive" era?


MSFHelp crowd-fund the new Museum of Science Fiction -- to be established in Washington D.C. The MSF plans to have interactive exhibits that explore the history and ideas of science fiction, in books and film -- the intersection of science and the imagination. Right now they are raising money through Indiegogo for a Preview Location as a first step toward the museum. Take a look at their video -- and help fund this worthy project. 

Then some big news: The Chinese Science Fiction Congress in Chengdu will, in a couple of weeks, honor me with a Galaxy Award for "most popular foreign author" among SF readers in China. My thanks go out to all the voters, readers, authors and professionals in the burgeoning Chinese science fiction fandom who participated in this selection, "uplifting" me to this honor.  I am thrilled and deeply moved.

7536692935.01._SX140_SY224_SCLZZZZZZZ_Indeed, nothing gives me greater optimism about the human future  than the rapid rise of science fiction in China! You will see why, next year, when Ken Liu's excellent English language translation appears for Liu Cixin's spectacular three-part novel, "The Three Body Problem," which was a tremendous leap forward for Chinese SF.  And more thrills are coming. The winner of the Best Novel category in this year's China's Xingyun (Nebula) Awards is a book that paints a pessimistic, dark view of a corrupt near-future China.  The Waste Tide by Chen Qiufan takes place in the 2020s, and depicts a dystopian future -- the kind of literary exploration that shows a nation self-confident enough to relish and benefit from dark criticism.

== A new era of "smart mobs"? ==

AGEAMATEURSReaders have seen a number of my tales feature a rising "Age of Amateurs" in which ad hoc associations of citizens have the right, ability and initiative to make as much difference in human affairs as corporations and government agencies.  Now ponder this. The First AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing (HCOMP-2013) will be held November 6-9, 2013 in Palm Springs, California.  How I wish I could attend! (I'll instead be an a European Union conference on the future of the Information Age in Vilnius, Lithuania. ) The Palm Springs conclave will appraise "systems that rely on programmatic access to human intellect to perform some aspect of computation, or where human perception, knowledge, reasoning, or physical activity and coordination contributes to the operation of larger computational systems, applications, and services."

In other words, how networked problem solving systems can make use of human beings as intelligent nodes, sensors, actuators and solvers of sub-problems, empowering a dispersed system to crowd-source overall solutions…  pretty much as I depict happening in our near future, in EXISTENCE.

I hope someone will report in from the event in the desert and let us all know how it goes. Let's hope this trend will bode well for us all.

== A Helvetian War? ==

Hordes of bankrupt French invade Switzerland to get their hands on their “stolen” money — such is the imaginary scenario cooked up by the Swiss military in simulation exercises recently.

Sound familiar? In my novel EARTH (1989) people of the year 2038 look back upon the horrific "Helvetian War" of the 2020s, when 30 developing nations declared hostilities with Switzerland and other banking havens, in order to track down the trillions stolen by former kleptocratic lords.  What started as a legalistic "phony war" allowing the beligerants to seize property quickly turned violent and eventually neighbors in Europe joined in…. turning the Glarus Alps into radioactive slag.  An unusual scenario(!) that fans found both fascinating and unlikely.

Unlikely?  Hm. So much so the Swiss Army is taking it seriously, it seems.  Indeed, let me go farther. Something like it is starting to look (alas) unavoidable.

== Other pred--brin-ictions ==

Then there's this. One fan wrote in "Hey Dr. Brin, chalk up another one for your predictions registry! #2 of Cracked.com mentions that Sweden is "designing toilets that will extract the precious phosphorus from our [urine]."  All right.  That one was from Existence.  In that novel I portrayed denizens of our near future using the "Phosphorus-recovery Urinal" or P.U. Heck, I thought that up mostly for fun! Eep. Even slightly off color tech humor is coming true, now!

StarshipCenturyAnd speaking of bold predictions: Forbes presents Three Scenarios for funding Interstellar Travel, in a review of  Starship Century: Toward the Grandest Horizon, the fascinating anthology of essays and stories about interstellar flight, edited by the Benford Boys, with contributions by Stephen Hawking, Freeman Dyson, Peter Schwartz, and me… among others….

== Predictions from other sci fi ==

My friend Dr. Erik Virre is interviewed about the latest X Prize competition to build an honest-to-gosh Star Trek Medical Tricorder.  The devices are going to measure vital signs, assess medical conditions, and wrap all the systems into a useable mobile platform, and the winners announced in the summer of 2015.

== Troubles with Quibbles ==

IndianaJones-RaidersOfTheLostArkOn “The Raiders Minimization” episode of The Big Bang Theory, Amy Farrah Fowler watches Raiders of the Lost Ark for the first time with Sheldon Cooper. Afterward, Amy explains, “If Indiana Jones weren’t in the movie, the Nazis would have still found the Ark, taken it to the island, opened it up, and all died, just like they did.”  Hence the show's smartass writers proclaim a "gotcha" on Steven Spielberg.

Actually, this is entirely wrong.  Because Indiana Jones had proved to be a doughty adversary he was brought to the island so the Nazis could gloat, as he was forced to witness their triumph.  This resulted in:

1) a qualified witness to the power and glory of the Lord, and

2) the provision of a new home for the Ark. The very last scene makes clear that  America is morally deserving to keep it... but not mature enough to be trusted to use it.  Hence it "vanishes" into the storehouse catacombs.  Jones was instrumental and key to achieving that end, his purpose. My only quibble is that he should have had a touch of gray in his hair after that close brush with The Light.  It was a cool effect in The Ten Commandments.  Hey Raiders was a great film! From back when George Lucas actually cared about story. (Anything touched by Spielberg is gonna be just fine, anyway.)

== Speaking of Quibbles… or Tribbles… ==

… sign up for Sasquan -- the 73rd World Science Fiction Convention -- in Spokane WA in August 2015, with Guests of Honor David Gerrold and Vonda M. McIntyre.

4130XXin3OL._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_There will be a bonus "Train-Con" for those using Amtrak to get to Spokane, from either Seattle or Chicago.

== And Sci Fi Miscellany ==

In this moving interview on NPR, Terry Pratchett, who suffers from Alzheimer's disease and can no longer read, describes how he used dictation software to revisit and revise a new edition of his very first novel, The Carpet People (published in 1971, when he was only 17!). The book is illustrated by the author.

Zombie-ApoclaypseJohn Ringo has off-color fun leading you through his "proof" that a zombie apocalypse is inevitable.

== And finally ==

Some excellent advice for J.J. Abrams before he locks in his plan for the renewed Star Wars universe.  And I agree with the points in this lovely little video!

Still, as you all probably know, my quibbles run a whole lot deeper, down at the level where the prequels actually betrayed the fundamental moral elements of the earlier trilogy!  Where they actually started conveying some truly vile messages. Or at least, that was my case as "prosecutor" in the fantastically fun (and wise!) volume STAR WARS ON TRIAL.

And yes.  I have long promised you that extensive essay on James Cameron's wonderful epic Avatar… and how it does not preach the things that Mr. Cameron thinks it preaches, alas.  The essay is finished.  
Looking for the right venue.

Suggestions?

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Sci Fi Blasts from the Past…and Future

The biggest Sci Fi news is - of course - the release of the movie version of Orson Scott Card's ENDER'S GAME. As you might guess, I have plenty to say about Card's works, even without seeing how Hollywood has improved upon his archetype work.  But I will leave that for another time and venue. For now let me say that I hope Scott's movie does better than mine did!  I expect it will. It presses the right sequence of audience-flattering ("you are a demigod!") buttons.  Anyway, after a year of SF film flops, the genre could use a boost.

Still, I am leaning toward waiting for the DVD and holding a viewing party at our home, inviting friends who have also said they'll wait for DVD…. followed by lively discussion over copious drinks. Hey, DVD rentals are fair n' square. But decide for yourself. I'm just a patient guy.

Oh, by the way… On PolicyMic they recommend five sci fi series that ought to please folks who like Ender's Game.  I have mixed feelings, having written all the books in one of the recommended series and part of another….

Here Card addresses the controversy… and other voices weigh in. Here's Laura Miller on Salon. She's hostile partly for political reasons. (I care less reflexively about such things and am willing to suspend for the sake of story.)  But that doesn't make her points invalid. See a more nuanced opinion from Jonathan Rauch in The Atlantic.

== Brin Media ==

FiveBurningQuestionsNot exactly a big movie release… but I was in Tempe, Arizona to deliver the annual Shoemaker Lecture for Paul Davies's wonderful Beyond Center at Arizona State University, when some media folk associated with the new ASU Center for Science and the Imagination asked me to step outside (under the Phoenix Airport landing path) and answer "Five Burning Questions" on-camera.  The heavily edited sequence is not linear… but still holds together pretty well as I answer questions about the future, resilience and imagination.

Sometimes, one of my works inspires followup discussion that's worth a closer look. Steve Outing - on Media Distruptus - interrogates the vision of future journalism that I presented in Existence, with professional reporters empowered by vivid augmented reality (AR) but also by active links in real-time to thousands of stringers, volunteers, aficionados and witnesses, all over the planet, occasionally coalescing those networks into actively assertive "smart mobs."

Outing appraises the plausibility of the methods used by one of my characters - Tor Povlov - as she plunges through the world of 2045 in search of fast-breaking… and possibly world-shattering … stories.  An interesting analysis.

== Is "Piecework" coming true? ==

PieceworkAccording to the august and erudite Colbert Report, as the wealthiest one percent prospers, a growing number of Americans resort to selling their body parts.  Watch this Colbert segment on the trend of Americans selling breastmilk, organs and the like. One reader recently wrote in to me about this report:

"I immediately thought of your delightfully unsettling short story “Piecework.” The whole time I was watching the segment I was thinking, “this is it, this is how it begins.”

"Piecework" truly is one of my creepiest stories and well worth 99 cents! (on Smashwords or Amazon)  Or try the even creepier and cooler (and somewhat similarly themed) "Dr. Pak's Preschool!" Both are found in my collection, Otherness.

== Blasts from the Pasts! ==

I was asked to speculate on Ray Bradbury’s masterpiece, Fahrenheit 451, fifty years after publication: Well, it does seem quaint to imagine that knowledge of any kind could be burned away, now that electrons can be copied at a whim.  I have a device the size of my hand that contains all of Project Gutenberg and the text of Wikipedia. To eliminate all that would take a psychic tyranny. 

But Ray's book is an allegory.  And it girded millions to defend literacy and free speech.  As a self-preventing prophecy it belongs to the ages.

GalaxysEdgeMike Resnick's magazine (mostly online) GALAXY'S EDGE fills a long-needed slot in science fiction... all reprints of terrific "classic" stories that you may never have come across.  This issue -- now available -- contains a lot of truly outtasight tales from decades past, with stories by Larry Niven, Kevin Anderson, Catherine Asaro, and Jack Dann... plus a modest contribution of my own. "Thor Meets Captain America" came in second for a Hugo and led to my graphic novel THE LIFE EATERS -- beautifully illustrated by Scott Hampton.

Have a look at Resnick's Galaxy's Edge!   

== Does Lit' rah chah make you a better person? ==

soooo…. science proves that reading good literature helps to make you a better person.  All righty then, still I bet they left Sci Fi out of the study.  How about also expanding your horizons and learning great new things, experiencing new ideas….  And we do empathy, too!

A rebuttal -- though not a refutation -- of that "study" showing that literary fiction increases empathy. Neither side, alas, is doing science. So let's just keep reading.

== Good and Flawed Media ==


Ah but for something more tongue in cheek, see Tiny Changes That Would Have Saved Terrible Movies.  I loved the proposed change to Star Wars Episode 1.  And… oh, right. Nice to see The Postman listed first… I think… though that's not the tiny change I would make. I'd have kept the actor, the screenwriter, even the director… for the first 2/3 of the film. But I'd have insisted the director actually talk - even once, over a beer - with the novel's author.  Good things might have happened to the last 1/3. Well, one can dream.

Ah, but, for laughs, here are some overly realistic versions of the pitches for famous sci fi films. Follow @HardSciFiMovies on Twitter. Among the better ones:

    HardSciFiMovies A scientist accidentally releases a biological agent which causes animals to evolve rapidly, over a few thousand generations.

     A wealthy tycoon sponsors research into the cloning of extinct animals. Eventually a unique park is opened, populated by passenger pigeons.  Unexpected rampages occur that damage the paint of countless innocent cars.  (I added that last bit.)

     In the post-apocalyptic future, a lone US Postal Carrier continues his rounds. He is arrested for breaching furlough.  (!!)

     A talented computer hacker searching for truth is offered two pills by a mysterious character. It is a DEA sting operation.

     A man walks into a police call box. It is slightly smaller on the inside. He places a call.

     An archaeologist learns that Nazis are hunting a powerful religious relic. Content to let his enemies waste resources, he takes vacation.

     A boy and his sister discover a space alien and provide him refuge in their home closet. Their parents correctly identify it as a groundhog.

==Time Travel in SciFi==

TimeTravelStoriesFinally, in the latest issue of Nature, Andrew Jaffe takes a look at Time Travel in Science Fiction, from The Connecticut Yankee to Doctor Who -- has been now time traveling in his TARDIS for fifty years, first appearing in 1963. Scan this list of Time Travel stories dating back to Samuel Madden's 1733 Memoirs of the Twentieth Century, where a guardian angel travels to the 1700s carrying letters from the 1900s.

Just released: The Mammoth Book of Time Travel SF (edited by Mike Ashley) offers 25 tales of time travel from authors such as Gregory Benford, Robert Silverberg, Michael Swanwich, Kristine Kathryn Rusch, John Varley and others.

Saturday, November 02, 2013

Transparency Wins and Losses…

The biggest news is, of course, the ongoing hemorrhage of secrets from the Puzzle Palace… or the National Security Agency (NSA), as now the heads of at least six allied governments are standing in line to give Uncle Sam -- or President Obama -- a smack or two for peeping and snooping on email and phone traffic, sometimes even deep within the sanctums of government.

NSA-Shine-LightIt is all just too much, too fast, for me to blare out a quick screed of impressions and I-told-you-so's. Though a few one-sentence snarks might be in order while I put my more temperate remarks together.  For example:

1) In The Transparent Society I warned that any elite, whether a top agency or company or cabal of the rich, would have to be loony in this coming age of light, to entrust secrets to any but as narrow a group of co-workers or henchmen as possible.  I said as much at the CIA and DTRA and DHS and ODNI and many other alphabetical realms (though never at the NSA: does it show?)

2) Edward Snowden has been more effective than any fifty Julian Assanges.  Why Snowden, a low level worker, had access to so many potentially damaging reports, is beyond me. But it reveals a level of trusting naivete among NSA officials that could be viewed as (actually) rather charming in its innocence… no, that's not the word.  Let's just reiterate naiveté on the part of men and women who are supposed to be hard-as-diamond realists.  

Assuming something triple devious is not afoot (and my author brain spins: but you should forget this), then it means our Puzzle Warriors fell for a Twenty-First Century failure mode called the "henchman effect."

Surveil3) How is the world of pundits and politicians responding to all this?  The best news survey I've seen -- done with very lively multi-media and great info-graphics -- has been prepared by the Guardian: NSA Files Decoded.  Do drop by and look-watch-probe this site… then also know this:

Not one of the politicians and so on who talk about restricting NSA access to information is telling you the truth -- that it won't happen.  It cannot happen.  The increasing power to surveil is intrinsic, propelled with the ponderous momentum of Moore's Law.  All posturing aside, if the NSA is restricted, these powers will simply flow to some other, darker and harder to supervise corner.

It has happened before, countless times, but one example serves.  Did you ever hear of Total Information Awareness, or TIA?  If you haven't, look it up.  If you dimly recall, then shame on you and all other pundits for not mentioning it, till now.  Way back around 2003, DARPA honcho Admiral John Poindexter was smacked down by the entire political caste for talking about doing exactly the sort of things we now see from the NSA. In ensuing outrage, his programs were dissolved, banished… only to pop back up again, as in a game of Whack-a-Mole, an inevitable outcome that not one statesman or scholar or pundit discusses, amid all the posturing and righteous dudgeon.

No. Please. Leave it all at NSA, where it leaked! Where they were so generally open that they let low level contractors see top secret power points.  

Then bring into play the dozens of potential actions and reforms that would enable us to supervise, sousveill, and make sure these powers are used by folks who accept -- deeply and wholly -- the second word in public servant.

Transparent-Society-206

4) See page 206 of The Transparent Society (published 1998). Yes, that is where - in a creepy "Twilight zone" moment - I seemed to predict the events of 9/11 in detail and then the following Patriot Act: "What might  happened if  bombers actually succeeded in toppling both towers of New York's World Trade Center, killing tens of thousands. Or imagine that nuclear or bio-plague terrorists someday devastate a city. Now picture the public reaction if the FBI ever managed to show real (or exaggerated) evidence that they were impeded in preventing the disaster by an inability to tap coded transmissions sent by the conspirators. They would follow this proof with a petition for new powers, to prevent the same thing from happening again."

The question is, will all of this finally have the effect of unravelling the worst parts of that awful piece of Bush Era legislation?  I'll have more to say about this later.  But suffice it to say that while I hate many parts the Patriot Act, I probably disagree with many of my civil libertarian friends over which exact parts are worst, and what reforms should be made.

I infuriate those sincere paladins of freedom by shrugging over how much the government can see.  Not one thing they ever do will discomfit the oncoming age of surveillance more than an iota, here and there. As I just said… but it bears endless repetitions until someone out there gets it … if we forbid surveillance in one realm -- as we did with "Total Information Awareness" then top, state of the art surveillance will whack-a-mole somewhere else.

ElitesNo, you and I should care far more what elites can do with what they see and know.  What they DO is something we can verify, perhaps even control.  I don't care about blinding them. (It will never happen, anyway.) I want to restore our power to supervise our civil servants. I want the watchers to be watched.

We should never have needed Edward Snowden. Nor do I consider him to be as pure as driven snow. But this conversation was overdue. And that makes him worth any number of Julian Assanges.

See more recent updates on Transparency and Surveillance. 

== a light aside ==

ChuckLorre326Big Bang Theory producer Chuck Lorre adds quick-glimpsed vanity cards at the end of his shows. This one - on transparency - makes a strong argument that it should help to bring a golden age of accountability and then better human behavior.  "The end result? Universal honesty, initially as a result of the duress of surveillance, will become the norm. Then over time, this mode of thinking, communicating and behaving will become second nature." 

In fact...I don't quite go that far in The Transparent Society. But if we handle the transition carefully and don't let this be a top-down dominance thing, then yes… openness could save us and help us choose to be better.