Sapience, sentience and AI... and other hot science news!

Ah… sapience

In another posting here I re-issued my June op-ed in NEWSWEEK about human response to AI, especially ‘empathy bots” like the notorious LaMDA. This op-ed - and other interviews - referred to a prediction I made 5 years ago that "in five years or so, we'll be challenged by announcements of a fully sapient AI, demanding sympathy... and cash."  

Here's that talk on the A.I. future  at IBM's World of Watson event in 2017, that offered big perspectives on both artificial and human augmentation... and the text version. Few topics are more pressing for our future path... except saving civilization and the world and justice... and those will wind up enmeshed tightly with AI.

And so, in this more general science roundup, we'll start by diving into the topic of sapience (a much better word than the badly misused "sentience") yet again, as I expect we’ll do many times ahead.

== Sapience… sentience… pre vs. post ==

First, we know of only one sapient species, so far. This interesting paper appraises changes – across the last 6000 years or so - in prevalence of a number of genes that favor General Cognitive Ability (GCA). These observations are consistent with the expectation that GCA rose during the Holocene.  The result is very much in tune with what I posited in EXISTENCE. That there seem to have been rapid speedups in cognition and inventiveness, starting especially around 60,000 years ago.

What about our fellow Earthlings? It seems almost monthly that we see more stories about clever animals who use or even invent tools, who concoct clever escape plans, as in the case of a famous San Diego Zoo orangutan…

...or who bear long memory grudges toward individual humans, as in swarms of vengeful crows or this Indian elephant, who showed up at the funeral of a woman he had trampled to death days earlier, to hurl the body and trample it, some more.

This topic, which I dived into 40 years ago with my Uplift Series, continues to fascinate, as in stories of wounded or entangled creatures deliberately seeking help from humans to patch harms or cut nets, etc., clearly making a distinction between good/helpful and bad/dangerous people.

Fascinating also is the way that – in many octopus species – the mother guards her eggs… only to later leave them and suicide in bizarre ways. While the main cause is unknown, some of the processes are being revealed. 

== And on to other science matters.... ==

Heads up. The search for room temperature superconductors is over! Though not yet useful, since the ‘higher order hydride’ structures that now superconduct at even 550K still require immense pressures. Still…

How are geographical discoveries still possible even now? “Cave explorers stumbled upon a prehistoric forest at the bottom of a giant sinkhole in South China earlier this month. Sinkholes such as these are also known in Chinese as Tiankeng, or "Heavenly pit. At 630 feet deep, the sinkhole would hide the Washington Monument and then some. The bottom of the pit holds an ancient forest spanning nearly three football fields in length, with trees towering over 100 feet. 

Even deeper, new techniques allow mapping of  the boundary between the Earth's iron-nickel core and surrounding mantle to better understand one of the major engines for plate tectonics, volcano formation, and other related processes like earthquakes. Other scientists also believe there is a link between ultra-low velocity zones and volcanic hotspots, such as those in Hawaii and Iceland.

Neanderthal Man’s Recreated Face Takes Internet By Storm.  And yes, it is a cool reconstruction! Though come on. These folks lived primarily in Europe to the Urals. And this particular fellow lived in Doggerland, between England and Denmark. He’d have white skin. Vitamin D, don’t cha know. Possibly even blond hair.

If the Amazon dies, beef will be the killer. And America will be an accomplice, Brazil is burning down the Amazon so you can eat steak. And I say this as a NON-vegetarian.... who has cut way back on air-breathing meat for numerous reasons like health, but also in order not be contributing one more economic driver to such devastation. I can sustain my carnivorality tastes treating red stuff as a condiment, like ketchup! And bring on the tissue culture!

Interesting medical news:

Further facial recreation: an article in the NYT about a patient who had a prosthetic ear 3D printed from her own cells. Beyond immediate beneficial medical use, it could/would eventually lead to people using this technology for "artistic" purposes - that is, in the same way that we customize bodies using tattoos and piercings, we could "add" additional fleshy lumps to various places. They can’t print nerve cells (for now, anyway) so the new additions would have the tactile sensation of a plastic brick.  So your stylish elf ears might have… Legoleprosy?

As blogmunity member “Talin” suggests: “A different extrapolation is one where the archetypal fantasy races - elves / dwarves / orcs and so on - are actually created from humans who want to live that lifestyle. I mean we sort of have the beginnings of this with gender-affirming surgery..."species affirming"?”

"Small cancer drug trial sees tumors disappear in 100 percent of patients". 

And also the diabetes drug that lost a lot of folks a lot of weight.

== Finally, all about science and…. magic!  ==

Caltech physicist Spiros Michalakis and Hollywood writer/producer Ed Solomon (co-creator of Bill & Ted) speak with Caltech science writer (and sci-fi fan) Whitney Clavin about how they collaborate to make science shine in film.  

First, there IS a form of magic that irrefutably works and it works via modalities of incantation. If you define that magic is about using word spells to create vivid subjective realities in other peoples’ heads, then I am among the top, industrial grade magicians. Ever.

Some assert that magic can also affect objective reality - e.g. making the rain fall or putting-on hexes or curing ailments, despite the fact that most such claims evaporate under scrutiny.  A few don't evaporate! In fact, any magic that does causally affect the physical world consistently eventually becomes... part of science.

But there is also some merit to studying magical claims, even knowing they are objectively bogus, because they were utterly persuasive for tens of thousands of years. 

And so, here at this posting I talk about some of the rule-based systems that have been used in magic systems by shamans and wizards and priests for millennia. And here, I discuss the differences between science fiction and fantasy.

In this audio talk, I dive into some of the fundamental differences and similarities between magic and science.

And we all have superstitious or romantic corners within us. The trick is to reserve them for certain realms that enrich our lives... our personal lives of evenings and weekends and art and fantasy... while being abolutely determined to exile romanticism and subjective roars and such twaddle from the daytime business of justice and negotiating pragmatic solutions anf - above all - policy.

More (high) Science weirdness... and more...

Before going into some science-y quirks, a couple of quick items?

1) In Britain guess what Brexit-opposers have chosen as their catchword? Yep, it's "Brin." See a fun and funny video of "Brin-ers" crossing Abbey Road. Always knew I'd get there! (Not the only "Brin-appropriation!" here's another!) “Come on without, come on within, you’ve not seen nuthin’ like the mighty…”

2) Again, if you want weapons to help you fight for civilization -- (and no less is at stake) -- across the coming 370 days, then fetch (cheap!) an e-copy of Polemical Judo, with 100+ tactics to counter the would-be destroyers of our Great Experiment. Arm yourselves! And ponder some fresh perspectives. (Oh, and arm-twist others!)

== Modern Problems ==

What about those supposed “sonic attacks” on US and Canadian diplomats in Havana and Beijing? Studies show that it’s very likely something traumatic did happen. And we need to resurrect Frederik Poh’ls prophetic novel about scurrilous, state-sponsored sabotage: The Cool War.

Speaking of threats… have you heard of warshipping? They attack a target network by shipping a cellular-enabled wifi cracker to a company's mail-room.

A phenomenon called “hikikomori” is defined by the Japanese Health Ministry as people who haven’t left their homes or interacted with others for at least six months. Of 541,000 people between 15 and 39 who fit that description, 34% have spent seven years or more in self-isolation. Another 29% have lived in reclusion for three to five years. As many as one million people, mostly young men in their 20s, were spending their days locked up in their bedrooms, reading manga (comic books), watching TV, or playing video games. They refused to work or go to school and often didn’t communicate with family members, let alone friends.

I wonder if this will wind up being connected somehow to (1) the male excess in some populations and (2) addiction.

Cautious optimism drawn from a piece of news that might – possibly – help us stave off water wars across the next five decades, and buy us time to get our act together. Scientists have discovered an enormous low-salinity aquifer off the U.S. East Coast. The researchers say it could indicate other such aquifers trapped beneath the salty seas in ocean sediments across the planet. Whether the ice age conditions that made this vast trove were repeated elsewhere, is unknown. But it could matter.

== Changing climate - and attitudes ==

Lending support to what I have proclaimed should be a top issue for the Resistance! "In a time of climate change denial and vaccine resistance, scientists worry they are losing public trust. But it's just the opposite, a survey released Friday finds. Public trust of scientists is growing. It's on a par with our trust of the military and far above trust of clergy, politicians and journalists . . . " The survey by the Pew Research Center finds 86% of those surveyed say they have a fair amount or a great deal of faith that scientists act in our best interests. And that's been trending higher."

I am not asking that we emphasize the mad right's war on science - and all fact professions - instead of their blatant tumble into racism, sexism and intolerance. I'm saying we can benefit by proclaiming the obvious, that the Putin Party has it in for minorities and science! Women and civil servants! Gays and journalists and teachers, doctors and the intelligence community and... yes... the US military officer corps. Get enough RASR republicans to face all these bigotries at once could jostle many of them into turning back toward the light.

And yes, meanwhile... roughly 197 billion tons of ice from Greenland melted into the Atlantic Ocean in July. That's about 36 percent more than scientists expect in an average year. Maintaining climate denialism requires war on science. Don't refuse allies. Embrace them.

Amid the politicization of science, we’ve seen sins on all sides. One controversial study – published in the flagship journal Science – asserted that there were systematic differences in the ways that conservatives and liberals respond to fear or threats or disgust. I’ve always deemed these conclusions to be premature. While yes, conservatives tend to exhibit much closer-in boundaries or horizons of in-group inclusion, I’ve found that many on the left are just as intensely judgmental and wrathful and/or disgusted. They just aim these emotions are different horizons.

Here is an article that casts doubt on both the earlier, simplistic conservative-liberal psychological difference study and the process by which a refutation article might be denied publication in the same journal. I don’t deem this to be a broad indictment of science. Just a very tentative cautionary tale.

== Steps toward Uplift ==

Steps toward uplift? “Transgenic rhesus monkeys carrying the human MCPH1 gene copies show human-like neoteny of brain development.” The transgenic monkeys exhibited better short-term memory and shorter reaction time compared with the wild-type controls. (And yes, it’s done in China. And that's just what's happening in public view.) 

A top researcher dives into the fascinating topic of elephant intelligence and communications: “A database of elephant recordings increasingly captures acoustic, visual and tactile signals, matched to behavioural observations. But elephants inhabit deeply different lifeworlds from humans, have different hierarchies of motivation, and make different perceptual discriminations. And, except in the crudest terms, we don’t know much about what elephants might want to say to one another.

The fascinating story of traumatized young male elephants killing rhinos - til a wise older male was brought in to teach them proper behavior - has vast implications for us, as well as pachyderms.

Late in this interesting survey, Prof. Ross suggests that the biggest obstacle to effective sapience on the part of elephants, corvids and toothed whales might be their inability to store information outside themselves. To build upon a lifetime of experience (say in a herd matriarch or some of our cave ancestors) in a critically expanding and accumulating way. We began doing this by extending human lifespans so elders might carry oral traditions even into their sixties. Then came writing and so on.

This leads to an intriguing possibility… that “uplift” of the smartest animal (“pre-sapient”) species might begin not with genetic meddling, but by simply offering sites for external memory storage. Say obelisks - perched along an elephant migratory path or in some shallow, dolphin-friendly bay - that record and playback correlated inputs from any who come to purposely engage. “If our deep-learning algorithms can crack the elephant communication code, and enable us to engage in conversation with them, perhaps we could create this means of storage, such that elephants are motivated to attend to it.”

A final note: Elephant-uplift was portrayed in fascinating ways in Lawrence Schoen’s novel Barsk - and its sequel, The Moons of Barsk. I portray modified/armored ‘elepents’ and mammuts working in space in my novella “The Logs” found in INSISTENCE OF VISION.

And there's this.... a seal learns to sing "Star Wars" theme song. And another does twinkle little star. Okay aliens, NOW are we worthy?

Final notes:

Not only is eating fewer animal products good for the planet, but it is also good for your health. A  recent study found that eating more plant based foods slashes the risk of heart failure by 40%, while another one found that a vegetarian diet cuts the risk of heart disease death by the same percentage. Let’s be clear, I am not a vegetarian. I still indulge. But I view terrestrial meat as a condiment and red meat as a rare, guilty pleasure. Perhaps that leaves me in karmic jeopardy, but it does help lower my planetary footprint and carrots won’t ever be uplifted. Nuts? Well, maybe. Avocados are alien spies.

A fascinating illustrated cosmo-historical timeline since the big bang is far from comprehensive, but beautifully rendered and laced with interesting facts I never knew.

  

Uplift, evolution, biotech... and Yuval Harari's worries.

Putting aside politics... at least till the end... you may enjoy this video of a cool Clarke Center event: an evening with Freeman Dyson and Gregory Benford. Fascinating topics.  

If so, a possible game changer: A scientist working for the U.S. Navy has filed for a patent on a room-temperature superconductor, built using a wire with an insulator core and an aluminum PZT (lead zirconate titanate) coating. Others claimed to have invented a room-temperature superconductor in the past. Last year, two Indian scientists pointed to wire with particles of gold and silver. Other physicists are using pressurized lanthanum and hydrogen. In Earth I speak of perovskites, which recently held the record... and make up the most common mineral in the mantle. Um... so far it's sci fi.

== Uplift: pro vs. con ==

This rumination on animal uplift is interesting - citing me and others re: the ethical quandaries involved. It also points out the tradeoffs that nature faced, as each species reached an equilibrium between smarts and reproductive strategy: “Those species moving toward higher intelligence by way of larger brains must balance that increase against the deficit of fewer children. In the midst of a genetic arms race, ten less-intelligent children is better than one brilliant one, so long as they survive to pass on their genes.” A tradeoff portrayed in the idiotic-fun-yet-thought-provoking film “Idiocracy.”

Initial experiments show that “the uplifting of non-human animals to a small degree, through the use of technology, selective breeding, and genetic engineering, has already been achieved. Supposing a continued increase in these areas of research, it's reasonable to assume that the level to which we could increase brain function of humans and non-humans will continue to rise.” 

Of course, this leaves out work being down in secret labs in Siberia and Xingkiang.

Excellent summary. Though in fact, Knapp's argument against Uplift is the best argument in favor! Since the original species would be preserved, fallow in a natural ecosystem (that we should fight to save/expand) there is no harm done to that original species. No "insult" and no replacement. The newly sapient sub-species would have its own destiny, conversing, imagining, arguing with a wider diversity of opportunity and wisdom on a planet no longer dependent on just one (human) way of seeing things. 

And if neo-dolphins and neo-chimps use their new political power to help secure jungles and clean oceans, speaking for their fallow cousins, so?  And your complaint is?

Consider, if you had one child, who decides to ditch her human body and head to the stars as a cyborg, you might be sad.  You'd likely feel different if she could both send a duplicate and remain here on Earth with ypu and your grandchildren. 


Yes, there's plenty of moral hazard, e.g. the first few dozen generations of such a project would necessarily entail mistakes, and most likely some pain. Indeed the latter outcome is the only argument against uplift that stands up to scrutiny; it certainly makes me uncomfortable!  As for the "colonialism" dig, well, those making it are themselves examples of a new maturity that is enabling humanity to face its old mistakes. Without that gradually emerging wisdom, I'd be the first to say: "don't do this!" But ironically, the objectors exemplify why we may be (almost) ready.

See my earlier posting: Will we uplift other species to sapience?

== Bio & Biotech ==

DNA's ingredients, called nucleotides, are four components called adenine, cytosine, guanine and thymine that fit together in sequences making up the genetic code. New kinds of synthetic DNA include those components as well as four others in a new double-helix structure that works to store and transfer information. Hachimoji DNA, in Japanese, means "eight letter." This kind of research can shed light on potential kinds of alien life. But there are implications you won’t read about in the science press.

First, this has implications for the future of experimental life design. If new, potentially dangerous life forms are required to utilize at least a few, vital proteins that can only be made using these new codons, then those life forms – or related nanomachines – will be utterly dependent on “nutrient” materials made only in a few human run factories. Such bottleneck control could prove crucial in the event of a blunder. And blunders happen.

Second, before we get all misty about the likely variability of life across the cosmos, note that the same sort of nutrient restriction might bar us from colonizing far-off interstellar worlds, if the native ecosystem provides nothing colonists can eat.

Only I’m not sure I buy it. The reason is… adenine, one of the four nucleotides we use in DNA and RNA. It’s the easiest on to make – almost trivially in Miller-Urey-Orgel experiments. It’s also the backbone of the other main chemical of life, ATP which mediates use of energy from sugars. 

I doubt and water-carbon-light based life will forego use of this keystone molecule. Which means that thymine (which pairs with adenine in DNA) and uracil  (which pairs with adenine in RNA) are likely prevalent, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are then dynamic/chemical reasons why cytosine and guanine would also be favored (look at how they nestle next to Adenine and thymine) leading to pretty much standard DNA and RNA.

If  you find bio beings using other codons, I'd suspect they had artificial ancestors.

== Philosophical musings ==

From Yuval Noah Harari’s tome Homo Deus: “Our new-found knowledge leads to faster economic, social, and political changes... Consequently we are less and less able to make sense of the present or forecast the future.” And yet, in fact, humans have led far more predictable lives than any of their ancestors.

Harari does envision a glorious expansion of human capabilities: 
“Homo sapiens is not going to be exterminated by a robot revolt. Rather, Homo sapiens is likely to upgrade itself step by step, merging with robots and computers in the process.” 
But he cannot bring himself to see a win-win. Rather, this tech-apotheosis is portrayed happening in a way that mimics the past calamities. 
“Once Google, Facebook and other algorithms become all-knowing oracles, they may well evolve into agents and finally into sovereigns.”

Oh, it’s true enough that 6000 years of dismal, recorded history shows this happening time and again. Wondrous capabilities do seem often to be monopolized or hoarded by elites, or used as tools of oppression. Likewise, these new tools might be gathered up by topmost hierarchs like kings, priesthoods or Googles. 

What is missed by Yuval Harari is not that darkly obvious extrapolation, but any seeming awareness that we have alternatives and some recent experience using them. Like the democratization of powerful technologies. Today, every citizen carries sophisticated instrumentalities, starting with powerful cameras, but soon to include chemical and environmental sensors. (In the U.S., their right to aim them at authority is now “settled law.”) Hence, it is at least conceivable that we may incorporate Google-developed tools of info-management not in a centralized-dystopic way, but as dispersed agents who are loyal to each of us, even as additional personal organs, the way that humans layered-in the prefrontal cortex quite recently (in evolutionary terms). 

Again, as in many other potentially Orwellian trends, the deciding factor may be a matter of social choice. (I depicted this possibility long ago in a story “Stones of Significance.”)


== Political lagniappe ==

Just a reminder of what pundits have been too stupid to point out... that the only thing the Mueller Report "cleared" Donald Trump of was direct collusion with Kremlin acts of war against the American Republic during 2016. The Trump Tower meetings and WikiLeaks and calling publicly for Russian hacking... they were bad, but always the weakest parts to prosecute.

That's it. Nothing else is exonerated. And the following jpeg is way obsolete -- a couple of months old. The counts are still rising.

Amazing - and sometimes deadly - animals

Oh, thank you science!  For offering alluring reasons why I can turn every weekend posting away from politics!

And this time, let's look at some of our fantastic fellow creatures on this globe. For example:

Russian researchers have teased out the separate sounds from two dolphins, demonstrating that they take turns and emit sequences of bursts that seem to be discursive… in other words – conversation.  Similarly, sperm whales have been found to form clans with distinct cultures... and regional dialects -- which consist of distinct click patterns. 

Which mammals are most likely to be killed by their own kind? A recent study - The phylogenetic roots of human lethal violence - tabulated cause-of-death comparing a wide variety of mammal species. For instance, 13% of lion deaths are inflicted by other lions. The researchers found that a likely baseline murder rate among humans would be around 2 percent.  That means that 2 out of every 100 human deaths would be a murder taking into account only our place on the evolutionary tree, and nothing about political pressures, technology or social norms.

In comparison, among mammals in general just 0.3 percent of deaths are murders. For the common ancestor of primates, the rate is 2.3 percent.

With 2 percent as a human baseline, we come across as both uncommonly peaceful for primates and uncommonly violent for mammals. A topic extensively explored by Steven Pinker in his best-selling book, Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined.

"Rates of homicide in modern societies that have police forces, legal systems, prisons and strong cultural attitudes that reject violence are, at less than 1 in 10,000 deaths (or 0.01%), about 200 times lower than the authors' predictions for our state of nature," comments biologist Mark Pagel.

The champion killers of their own kind?  Meerkats. Hakkuna Matata, man.

And even more dangerous animals are explored in the recently released popular science book, Venomous: How Earth's Deadliest Creatures Mastered Biochemistry. Biologist Christie Wilcox investigates how such a wide variety of animals - jellyfish, sea urchins, spiders, snakes, scorpions, as well as certain snails, fish and frogs - have adapted to manufacture poisonous chemical cocktails that can debilitate, paralyze or kill. The complex biochemistry of these toxins may hold clues for future medical treatments.

== Unusual adaptations ==

Consider some extreme survival strategies:

A microbe found deep in a South African gold mine feeds off energy from radioactive uranium in the rock of the mine. Along these lines, could it be possible that cosmic rays power life in alien environments?

And scientists have identified a gene in strange, aquatic creatures called tardigrades that helps them survive harsh conditions, even boiling, freezing and radiation. One called "Dsup" (short for "damage suppressor") seems to attach to and protect DNA from radiation. 

Mice sing like a jet engine: scientists find that mice make their high-pitched squeaks by expelling a "glottal jet" of air at supersonic speed. 

Hints of tool use, culture seen in bumble bees? Apparently even bumblebees can learn to pull a string to retrieve a reward. Surprisingly, they can learn this trick from other bees, even though they have no experience with such a task in nature. 

A study of 29 mammals yawning found that the length of their yawn correlates with brain size -- longest for primates.

Carl Safina's Beyond Words: What Animals Think and Feel a thoughtful look at the latest scientific insights into animal communication, emotions and the question of animal consciousness -- 

-- issues I explore in fiction in my Uplift novels.  See also my earlier posting: Will we uplift other animals to sapience?

According to a study in Science, three different species of great apes -- chimpanzee, bonobo and orangutan -- are able to distinguish when others hold false beliefs, and anticipate the perspective of another ape. 

Scientists have for the first time, documented evidence of wild chimpanzee mothers teaching their young to use primitive tools -- to probe for termites. See this charming video: monkey tries to teach a human how to crack a nut.

Sharp stone flakes may not be unique to our human ancestors. Capuchin monkeys have been observed to inadvertently produce jagged stone flakes as they pound stones together (for unknown reasons). Curiously the monkeys frequently lick the stones they've hammered (perhaps as mineral supplements?).

Consider... Five times evolution ran in reverse, a fascinating look at instances of regressive evolution -- in penguins, hagfish, snakes and aphids. 

== Complex thought and communication ==

No bird brains here: Trained pigeons were able to distinguish four-letter words from non-words, and to tell the difference between correctly spelled words and those with transposed characters.

Actually, pigeons have excellent visual acuity. This is hard to believe -- but pigeons can even be trained to identify breast cancer tumors, distinguishing between those that are malignant and benign. The success rate for trained pigeons was 85% accuracy. A career in radiology?

A research paper in Applied Animal Behavior finds that horses can learn to use abstract symbols to communicate their preferences. 

And apparently even fish 'chat' to each other! Cod are incredibly vocal -- displaying regional 'dialects' that differ in frequency and tone. These fish can generate a range of complex sounds by vibrating their swim bladder -- which they use to establish territories, attract mates or signal the presence of a nearby predator.

Are dolphins finally waking up to their identity... and potential? See The Great Mammal Conspiracy, one of the latest cartoons from the always amusing SMBC. 

We're just beginning to understand the complexities of animal communication. 

So... so long, and thanks for all the fish!