Calling on sages and elder statesmen to help save us

Apologies for this late weekend posting. we took a break to attend "Of Mice & Men" and then a parade of antique steam engines...

First an announcement. My Questionnaire on Ideology has been updated and made more clear. These socratic queries may reveal assumptions that lie deep below, helping you see many things in a fresh way! Among those who have had their thoughts prodded for 15 years, not one has denied that assertion! Take the quiz and shake things up! Expand… your… horizons….

== Calling up the old guys ==

Talk about ingratitude. George W. Bush has been saved by Donald Trump… from being labeled the worst president of the 21^st Century. Saved, by miles. (His father was by-far the worst of the 20^th Century.) Yet what does he do? Bush's speech a week or so ago details our ‘democratic collapse,’ with obvious references to Trump — though, like Obama on the same stage, a while back, he did not utter the current president's name. W's speech called on a renewal of American spirit and institutions – which, of course, he undermined as president.

“Bigotry seems emboldened. Our politics seems more vulnerable to conspiracy theories and outright fabrication,” Bush warned three days after Sen. John McCain delivered a similar attack on “spurious nationalism” harkening to American ideals and democracy "We live in a land made of ideals, not blood and soil," McCain said in a blatant swipe at Steve Bannon and the confederate fascists. "We will not thrive in a world where our leadership and ideals are absent. We wouldn't deserve to."

And where have you been, during the Rupert Murdoch era?

Okay, let’s take a deep breath. Better late than never. Indeed, this is the perfect segue to…

== Calling on the ‘sages’ ==

My cousin, former FCC chair and PBS chair Newton Minow, has put out an appeal for our five living ex-presidents to step up when we need them.  His call is brief and — well — vague.  I mean, there are no legal frameworks for such a conclave… nor would they strictly need one. (Let me be clear that I deem two of these men to have been leading candidates for the title of “worst president in 100 years,” that is, till the title was seized overwhelmingly.)  

In fact, I have a trio of tasks for any ad-hoc conclave of senior American sages, that could start with a nucleus of ex-presidents. I’d add all former vice presidents, though that would let in a cipher and one genuine monster. Also invite former Supreme Court Justices like Sandra Day O’Conner. And top retired officers, like David Petraeus. Heck, add all American Nobel Prize winners? 

What role could such a commission of American elder statesmen play? 

1. Such an ad-hoc conclave might jawbone-intervene with the present  oval office occupant, or speak to the nation, reminding us by counterexample what presidents sound like.

2. They could help us get past the Fact Crisis, by overseeing creation of a fact-checking service -- one immune to the “partisan!” howls that get hurled when one political faction sees a favorite rumor or urban legend debunked. 

We don’t want a single “Ministry of Truth,” so set up several – a couple headed by reputable conservative thinkers -- to reciprocally critique each other! At least we’d see the worst crap washed away.  And with their arm-twisting, Congress might even re-establish the treasonously-killed Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). (Well, one can dream.)

Not one of the issues that you cry out about  is more urgent than this. For, if we restore the primacy of fact in our discourse, most of our current manias would vanish.

3. Elsewhere I describe how the Constitution’s 25th Amendment allows Congress to establish an “other body” — separate from the Cabinet -- that can respond quickly, if the Vice-President declares the President temporarily unfit to serve. Evidently, this “other body” can be set up in advance! 

It would have to be bi-partisan, in order to get enough votes to overcome Donald Trump’s veto. Hence, this Other Body could be the same council of American sages discussed above, standing ready, if needed, to act on an hour’s notice. See where I go into details: Exit Strategies and the 25th Amendment.

Alas, there are bright fools out there – like the LA Times’s Doyle McManus and Chris Reed of the San Diego Union – who croon that the 25^th Amendment is a futile hope, because it officially sets a higher bar – 2/3 majorities in both chambers of Congress – than does impeachment and removal. But that is lazy thinking. 

First, GOP members of Congress will be far more likely to vote for a removal that’s temporary and calming than one that's permanent and traumatic. 

More importantly, if such an “other body” were set up in advance, it would give our military and intelligence officers someplace to go, if ever they were given an intolerable or crazy order by an unbalanced commander-in-chief. With a little comms infrastructure, such a council could give temporary control to the Vice President in less than an hour. 

Just knowing the Council of Sages existed would let our senior officers sleep better. And thus it would help us sleep, too.

So, yes, Newton Minow’s proposal for the ex-presidents to step up and speak is valid and important. I just fleshed out two additional, very specific tasks. 

And there's a fourth task that could be aided by some former presidents, and others. One that could end this wretched phase of the American Civil War.  It would call for courage and patriotism from at least fifty men and women who are true citizens.

Senators Bob Corker, John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and other adults - and sure, throw in Mitt Romney, Robert Dole and so on - can, should, and must finally hear the call of duty… and announce that this is not about just Donald Trump. Rather... to paraphrase Ronald Reagan … “The Republican Party has left us.”  If they find a critical mass, it could serve as a nucleus for a Sane American Conservative Party. And that could be the salvation of the Republic.

(This is not unprecedented! See elsewhere, how I describe the Democrats' own "Miracle of 1947" -- a crucial and fateful meeting that saved their party and liberalism in America. Conservatives could do the same thing -- that is, the sane and loyal and grownup ones could.)

One who is unabashedly calling for this? Jennifer Rubin, the longtime conservative columnist who had championed Mitt Romney and made excuses for the Bushes, has had the moral fiber to declare “enough.” And although she called Trump “evil incarnate,” she has the wit that’s lacking in most democrats… to see that Donald is a symptom of a disease that runs much deeper. 

“What’s a fit punishment for the Murdochs?” she writes, about those who predated Vladimir Putin and even the Saudis, at deliberately warping American institutions and destroying our national genius at genial pragmatism and negotiation. Gee, what punishment is appropriate for outright and deliberate treason? 

And of course this is why Corker and McCain etc. hesitate. They would be declaring open war on the Murdoch family, owners of today's undead GOP.

        

== Know the alternative ==

Fools who are so eager for impeachment… read about Donald Trump’s impeachment insurance policy.  From: The New Yorker: The Danger of President Pence. 

        

Seriously, the GOP lords know that Trump is a liability and are looking for ways to get rid of him in favor of their wholly-owned yes-massa puppet.  If Trump resigns or is removed, ownership of the White House will shift from a consortium of Putin-Pennywise over to Murdoch-Koch-Mercer and Goldman-Sachs. We can survive a few years with the shortsighted oligarchy running roughshod over us. They’ll regret it, the way the French aristocracy did.

No. The real danger from Mike Pence is far worse than depicted even in this fretful article. It comes from the fact that his version of Christianity is very different than that of Jimmy Carter. 

Carter focuses on the words of Jesus. Pence joins the fundamentalist fixation on the most noxious and vile book in the Bible – the Book of Revelation – a monstrosity of volcanic hate that is the opposite of Jesus in every conceivable way. (See how Patrick Farley both explains and satirizes that wretched tome here.)

They want the world to end. They pray for it to happen, and soon -- a bloodbath of spectacular sadism that will bring an end to all neighborliness or cooperation. An end to all ambition and fair competition. An end to almost all life on Earth. An end to all exploration, discovery or curiosity, and everything else that makes us human. An end to democracy and an end to the United States of America.

Make no mistake, this is what they have openly said that they pray for, daily -- for 99% of their own neighbors and fellow citizens to get the “deserved” torture and then eternal damnation that we (you and I) deserve. 

There is a mythology that we should ignore religion in making political decisions, but this is a clear exception.  Those who yearn for this psychotic thing are likely to bend all their powers to make it happen.

Moreover, Pence is smoother than the current POTUS. Trump’s Oval Office leaks! The Officer Corps is alerted to his craziness. But a Pence White House would be filled with tightly disciplined Dominionists. Hell yes, I am more scared of him.

Now comes the irony atop it all! “Hey Brin, didn’t you just say you want the Vice president to have, on-call, a Council of American Sages  (the ‘other body’ provided for in the 25^th Amendment) able to quickly take an erratically dangerous president out of the chain of command? But wouldn’t that put ArmageddonBoy in charge?”

Yes, and make no mistake, we are in a delicate mine field between an unstable, impulsive, clown-car narcissist dancing to Kremlin strings on the one-hand and a devoted servant of the New Aristocracy who will be keeping an eye open for any excuse to bring apocalypse. 

But there is a path through the mine-field! Because the 25^th Amendment only sets aside the president temporarily! (It would take 2/3 majorities in both houses to keep even a temporary set-aside going.) Pence would preside over a Trump-appointed White House.  That would delay him getting anything done for quite some time.  Perhaps long enough to give us a Congress loyal to America.

Note also this. It can be argued before the Court that the Council of Sages would then be empowered to respond if Paul Ryan, as Speaker of the House and next in line is effectively then 'vice-president' under terms of the 25th. Imagine if he made the same declaration about Pence!  (And Ryan has horror-baggage of his own.)

Oh, the mess that would ensue is beyond anything we ever, ever saw. Nothing written by Simon Pegg would even compare!  So why am I even going here?

Because someone has to. It’s my job.

Exit strategies Part II: Surprising aspects of the 25th Amendment

Is there an exit strategy, in case the crazy gets even worse? Given the rapidity of events, I decided to offer a second weekend posting with some urgent perspectives.

You'll recall that last time I posed “four options.”  Among those exit strategies, I urged that we look away from impeachment, which would only serve the interests of those who provoke this phase of civil war. (Don't go there!) Indeed, as the clinical symptoms displayed by President Trump grow ever more extravagant, folks have started to stare longingly at the 25th amendment to the U.S. Constitution. 

Yes, you've seen articles lately discussing this option... all of them extremely shallow and missing a key point we'll reveal here. But for starters, do give it a careful read, because things could get critical very fast. The pertinent stuff starts here:

'Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.'

Note this line in particular: "...or of such other body as Congress may by law provide..." 

Hence Congress can establish, by law, a commission of sages who may - in coordination with the Vice President - declare the President unfit to discharge his duties. Interesting. But has anyone, especially in Congress, actually thought through the implications? 

The group that one might normally expect to invoke this amendment — the Cabinet — is filled with Trumpists and some bona fide crazies. They will at best be slow to act on any Vice Presidential request to declare POTUS incapacitated… and hence the VP may also hesitate to ask, even at some critically dangerous moment. 

But consider that other body the 25th talks about. Note: there is no prescribed time sequence, so an alternative commission could be created in advance, and thenceforth serve as a warning to the President, to remain calm. In order to be established "by law," over-riding a presidential veto, the 'other body' would have to be bipartisan.

Moreover, this commission would be able to act - in concert with the VP - almost instantly, should POTUS issue bizarre or especially dangerous orders, offering a way for sane grownups to cancel some crazy action or command. The mere existence of such a commission might ease the pangs of our Officer Corps, knowing they would have a place to turn, if some spasmodic-insane order came down.  I know of nowhere else that they could turn.

Without such a Congressionally established commission in existence, the VP would have to assemble the Cabinet behind the President's back and persuade a majority to betray the man who hand-picked them and to whom they owe everything. Which path do you think is more likely to act as a brake on sudden, spasm-lunacy?

The 25th Amendment continues: "Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

There it is again. The "other body" or Congressionally-appointed commission - in conjunction with the VP - may then reject the President's demand to be reinstated... sending the matter for decision by Congress. A 2/3 vote is then required in both houses to keep POTUS suspended. 

Thus we have an answer to anyone who claims this step would bypass the popular will, or create undue burdens on the presidency. There are several places where 2/3 majorities are required from both houses, plus cooperation from the Vice President... a far steeper set of obstacles, by the way, than is required for impeachment.

"Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office."

It is infuriatingly unclear what happens during the four days that Congress has to assemble and the 21 days it has to deliberate. I would assert that during those 25 days the VP is in charge. The Supreme Court would almost certainly have to decide.

What is clear is that there’s a way for Congress to lay groundwork in advance, to protect the Republic from an unstable president. A commission can be established... right now... that waits, ready to bypass the Cabinet in this one matter, but still requires both consent and courageous leadership from the Vice President. 

As a way to firm-up its trust and moral authority - especially since establishing it requires a law and hence likely an over-ridden veto - any such commission should be nonpartisan. I'd envision it starting with all the former presidents, vice presidents and retired Supreme Court Justices, plus an array of mighty American notables. (I'd add all U.S. winners of the Nobel Prize.)  And recall, that commission would be backed by the Constitution itself and empowered to cancel or postpone any rash presidential order, by exercising its right to hand reins over to the VP for a limited time.  

The circuit breaker for a mentally ill president is already provided for... if Congress chooses to use it. Note also that Senators and Representatives who might balk at a rush to impeach and remove might go along with simply creating a commission that could elevate the veep for a few days.

Even if such an action has only brief effect and POTUS is reinstated — recall it takes 2/3 of both houses to prevent that — the effect will still be to assure a pause for calm and reflection, during which any rash orders may be put on hold.

Believe me, I see flaws in this as well!  Given that Mike Pence is a member of an end-the-world-as-soon-as-possible cult, and has expressed utter devotion to Donald Trump, I am only somewhat eased.  

Still, I have to wonder. Do you think Congressional leaders are even aware of all this? Has anyone, anyone at all, worked it out down to this level? That the U.S. Constitution itself would support establishing a commission of sages in advance? One that would thereupon be able to act swiftly to protect us?

== ADDENDUM: Someone has, indeed, thought of it... ==

Since posting this, I stumbled across proof that others noticed the same thing. Alas, though, it's a Democrat.  And his well-meant efforts may have harmed, rather than helped promote such a commission.

"Rep. Jamie Raskin’s (D-Md.) bill seeks to create the Oversight Commission on Presidential Capacity to fill a role outlined by the Constitution’s 25th Amendment, which sets up presidential removal procedures."

This article is inaccurate and inflammatory in a few ways. But it shows that back in May Rep. Raskin at least noticed and pondered the inner meanings of the 25th. There's real overlap with my approach, but with emphasis on the commission being much more medical in nature: 

"Raskin wants to provide a specific “body” comprised of 10 physicians, psychiatrists and retired former leaders — like presidents and vice presidents — chosen by House and Senate leaders of both parties."

This could be a basis for negotiation about the actual bill, which would have to pass both houses... likely by 2/3 to override a veto. But I think Rep Raskin misses the point that even if Congress creates it, this "other body" cannot do a thing without the Vice President's cooperation and consent. The VP is central.

Moreover, this will be dismissed as partisan posturing, unless it is promulgated above-all by Ryan and McConnell, and they won't make any such move until it's almost too late.

So here's my clever political recommendation.  Staffers for Ryan and McConnell must discreetly approach a dozen important retired generals and admirals and ask them:

 "Do you believe that establishing such a commission in advance, so that the Vice President can act swiftly in a crisis, would enhance the security and safety of the United States?"

That's it.  If the response is yes, then it should happen. And history may remember those who prevented the simple measure.

(I will keep an eye on this Jamie Raskin fellow, though.)

== Another use ==

Okay, let me share a Doonesbury-level summer daydream. 

Such a commission — established for one constitutional purpose — could serve us in other ways. For example, by informally using the members' high-renown to help set up or endorse reputable fact-checking services that are beyond partisan reproach. 

Imagine both presidents Bush plus Obama, Clinton, Gore, Biden .... and Cheney and Quayle ... joining Sandra Day O'Conner and a dozen other luminaries saying "facts exist and here are several groups we trust to debunk all the lies going around."

Nothing would help us more than some process by which Americans could declare “our greatest sages and best minds say that’s false. So let's put at least that lie behind us.” 

== One way Bannon was right ==

My new posting pattern is to use the first half to address urgent news... and then segué to some of the less-urgent ruminations I've stored up.  So here we go with part 2.

While his malignant influence was partly responsible for the illness, I do agree with the departed-but-unlamented Dark Lord of the West Wing about one thing: the necessity of reversing the decline of U.S. influence, especially vis-a-vis trade and intellectual property. 

Moreover, those of you rejoicing over that decline have no idea, clearly, what the entire rest of human history was like before the 90% benign American Pax. (I agree that the bad 10% really sucked. Culpa nostrum. Now find another era with such a low ratio.)

Here is a very perceptive and articulate Australian view on Trump at the G20. It's actually the best summation of our situation that I've heard or read or seen, all in a compact, on-air report about POTUS effectively ceding leadership of the world to China and Russia. The background image - of the president of the United States, friendless, wandering the lunch table at G20 looking for any of the leaders willing to have him join them - would be heart-melting, if not so richly earned.  (Though thanks Australia… for Rupert Murdoch.)

But it all comes full circle to the weapon our enemies have used to put us into decline... fostering the failure mode that Arnold Toynbee called the destroyer of nations... the demolition of trust in our creative or knowledge castes.

More than half of the Republicans surveyed in a recent Pew poll say colleges and universities are hurting the country, a drastic shift from how the same group viewed such institutions two years ago. Alas, this article doesn't go to the heart of why. Every single fact-using profession is now warred upon by Fox and right-media... scientists, teachers, doctors, journalists, economists, judges, civil servants... and now the "deep state" FBI, Intelligence Officers and the U.S. Military Officer Corps. 

The Orwellian hate fest toward fact-people became essential, as they are the ones standing in the way of a re-imposition of 6000 years of feudalism.  And what do all fact-folks have in common?  Nearly all were influenced by the fact-using places called colleges and universities.

There's more to it, of course, and I explore the disease in more detail here: "Declining trust in our expert castes: what are underlying causes?"

To be clear, this extends to previously exempt groups of fact-users. Elsewhere I have gone on about how the FBI, CIA, and military officers used to be safe from the murdochians’ all-out war on sapient professions. Only now – prompted by the noxious “deep-state” meme -- confederates feel free to wage open war on those fact-people, too.

Civil servants have always been hated-on by the far-right (though Adam Smith extolled them as a counterweight against aristocratic cheaters.) But they were given safety by laws passed since the 1880s (by Republicans, no less.) I have a libertarian corner of me that is willing to discuss how bureaucracies are ever in need of being refreshed to prevent cloying meddlesomeness. Still, we have a civilization with rules and compromises that we agreed to by sovereign political processes.  And while politics has been (temporarily) destroyed by the murdochian-confederates, we still have a civilization to maintain, and civil servants are there to keep a complex society spinning.

Now comes an exposé in Foreign Policy revealing how alt-righters are savagely attacking this final, fact-using group. “Career civil servants often endure stressful working conditions, but in the Trump White House, some of them face online trolling from alt-right bloggers who seek to portray them as clandestine partisans plotting to sabotage the president’s agenda. The online attacks often cite information that appears to be provided by unnamed White House officials or Trump loyalists.

“The trend has unnerved the career intelligence analysts, diplomats, security experts, and military officers who are accustomed to operating outside the political arena,” write the authors Brannen, de Luce and McLaughlin.

The anecdotes in this article are deeply  disturbing. But above all they are indicative of the full breadth of this war upon any semblance of objective reality or sapience in American life or governance. The smart bomb question that I ask everyone to use, when they confront their mad-right-confederate uncles (or better-yet, their aunts, who might yet be swayed) is: “Can you name for me one fact-centered profession of high knowledge and skill that is not under attack by your cult?”

As it happens, there are two remaining groups who both have some degree of intellectual accomplishment, and are utterly exempt from the right’s War on All Smartypants.  They are:

Doctors of Divinity

… and…

… members of the CEO-WallStreet-Inheritance caste.

Both groups are beneficiaries of staggeringly huge tax breaks that they extort from us all, via dependent politicians. Both have everything to win, if all the fact-users are destroyed, or at least crushed into submission.

Both have helped to bring about the long-delayed Decline of the West.