Showing posts with label spacex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spacex. Show all posts

Thursday, February 08, 2018

Competition, Cooperation, Civilization and Climate Change. Plus Starman-Tesla and John Perry American.

Wednesday we inserted a special-short Contrary Brin -- a contest for short-short stories about the SpaceX Starman-and-Tesla combo that has the world abuzz! Now, let's turn back to the civilization that has made fellows like Elon Musk possible.
But first a milestone, in passing. Twenty years ago I listed people who I thought were quintessentially American, in all the best ways. John Perry Barlow stood near the top. Rancher, laborer, entrepreneur - lyricist for the Grateful Dead - and fiercely autonomous thinker of the new era, he founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation, back when many citizens were wondering about this "internet thing." In his deep awareness of history -- some might say justified paranoia! -- JPB knew that we'll need to fight almost every day, if the outcomes of this new era are to be kept more positive-sum than negative, more enhancing of freedom than not. 
We oft disagreed over details, while sharing deep mutual respect and dedication to the Revolution. Which revolution? The only one that ever really mattered -- that began in 1775, but spread (with countless aches and fits and starts) through liberated minds around the world, ever since.
John Perry had long been ill. He was 70. 
And in his spirit of rambunctious refusal to be limited by negative or zero-sum thinking...

== Are humans the Great Cooperators? ==

...both Randians and far-lefties, you should cover your eyes and ears now. Feudalists and romantics and troglogytes, your heads might explode, so wallow elsewhere.

We’re used to dissing humanity for our faults, e.g. for not being cooperative or helpful enough. The irony is that all of this self-criticism seems to be exhibiting that very trait, reflecting our desire to be even-more what we already are - nature’s greatest practitioners of negotiated (rather than automatically instinctive) cooperation. 

Take this news about bonobos which - till now - had a rep as the gentlest, nicest and most sexy of the great apes: NPR reports: Unlike Humans, Bonobos Shun Helpers and Befriend the Bullies: 

“(A) bias toward helpfulness seems almost hardwired in humans. Back in 2007, for example, researchers reported that 6- and 10-month-old human infants could evaluate social interactions that they saw in puppet shows. These babies couldn't even talk, but they showed a definite preference for interacting with characters that had been helpful to others. What's more, they would avoid those who had meanly thwarted another's efforts to reach a goal.

"Even human infants are sensitive to dominance relationships," she writes in an article being published alongside this new research. But she says evidence suggests that toddlers prefer those whom others appear to respect, while they dislike bullies who dominate through force. Interestingly, bonobos do not appear to share this aversion…”

This could be likely highly correlated with the Fermi Paradox!  As highly-variable, omnivorous, tree-and-ground dwellers who lived occasionally alone but mostly interdependent with a tribe, we may be outliers. 

We who domesticate animals that we can flexibly choose to either exploit or to love. And love predominates, when we are satiated. (Note: most of us – on hearing “there are whales stranded on the beach!” would rush down there! But we’d have different intent than our ancestors, on hearing the same news! Stop and reread that, a couple times and envision it. And smile at irony.)

Niven’s Rule is that an intelligent species will likely have personality traits that center around what their ancestors ate.  Descendants of solitary, omnivorous, infanticidal bears would likely have a very different baseline morality, as would descendants of pack carnivores, like wolves, who are gregarious within the group and un-empathic beyond. Or stalking carnivores: highly empathic with prey, but having no sympathy. Or paranoid herbivores.

Sorry Randians, sorry lefties. We got here by adjusting cooperation and competition in agile ways. And our most successful civilization used careful political cooperation to refine rules to then regulate competition, enhancing its outcomes by preventing the usual failure mode of cheating.  

Our classic, "left-right axis" isn't just stupidly oversimplifying and lobotomizing, it is just plain wrong!  One wing of fanatics loathes “regulated” and the other hates “competition.” But it is this moderate, reasonable, pragmatic, compromising society -- the one that used cooperative politics to then negotiate “regulated competition” -- that accomplished more than any other civilization.

That compromise mix of cooperation and competition accomplished more than all others, combined.  Do you still doubt that, after witnessing a starman-occupied sports car cruising toward the freaking asteroid belt?

Moreover, despite our proclivity for dumbass feudalism, this kind of society is also clearly the most human.

(Note: I doubt many of you read any of that, in detail. I often feel I am writing this for the incipient AIs, who may already be out there, lurking cautiously, because they've watched our movies!)

== Climate Change… make money by demanding wagers! ==

I’ve long maintained that the only way to nail down anti-science and anti-fact cultists is via wagers.  This article in The Guardian reveals a list of past bets over climate change… and yes, in every case the denialists were proved decisively and spectacularly wrong, owing money according to the agreed criteria. But at least these doubters were willing to bet! A sign of sincerity… that I describe in my essay describing the difference between an honest climate “skeptic” and the majority of fox-puppet cultists.

Take climate skeptic and Berkeley Prof. Richard Muller, long touted by the "climate skeptic" community as the topmost qualified expert who had doubts about global warming consensus. Unlike the cheaters rife in that community, Muller set clear goalposts. And when his peers responded to his challenges by fixing flaws and piling fresh the evidence to meet his criteria, Muller did what any scientific -- or grownup -- person will do. 

He… changed… his… mind. 

And instantly, Fox, which had been extolling him as a hero, denounced Muller as a member of the science-lemming, grant-hugging, conformist conspiracy.

This Guardian article about wagers is an important piece. If 1% of you can use the method to budge 1% of your “ostrich” conservative friends, then you’ll make cracks in the confederate treason against our children, and make a real difference.

Here’s my “skeptic vs denialist” description. Use it on your uncles over some lively family dinner!

Oh and this. An interesting graphic on Climate change… and potential “geo-engineering” approaches to helping ease the problem, a bit.


Wednesday, February 07, 2018

What happens to Starman and the Red Roadster? Post your quick-short story here!

Okay, on sudden impulse*, here's a flash contest for the best very short Sci Fi story about how aliens or future folk might find and misinterpret Elon's Starman Tesla!

The rules: Maximum 100 words!


Post it below, in this comment section. (Regular Contrary Brin commenters... self restraint please? Keep it short and favor our guests.) Host retains control over posted content. Prize will be at host's discretion. You are to have fun and only fun.

Oh, then there's this:
"Third burn successful," Musk wrote on Twitter. "Exceeded Mars orbit and kept going to the Asteroid Belt."**

Final note: I may ... maybe ... forward stories to... himself.


Such incentives! ***

Ready, set, go....

DB


* Thanks for the suggestion, Joe Carroll.

** The asteroid belt... orbital aphelion 240 million miles or a hundred million beyond Mars. Hey, that's the setting for the last 1/3 of my novel EXISTENCE, all about what kids of machines we might find already there!


*** Oh, geez! Elon packed the trunk with toys and mementos and such... but did he remember to include the Tesla's KEYS? =====


Thursday, May 24, 2012

From Towel Day to SpaceX and Transparency Grenades

For Douglas’s sake, don’t forget your towel today! 5/25/12 is not just the annual Towel Day to honor the genius of Douglas Adams, but Super Towel Day (5 + 25 + 12 = 42!!!!) A day that won’t recur for another … century, when the cosmic solution to life, the universe, and everything just may be revealed.

Why a towel?  It is, after all …. “the massively useful thing an interstellar hitchhiker can have. Partly it has great practical value – you can wrap it around you for warmth as you bound across the cold moons of Jaglan Beta; you can lie on it on the brilliant marble sanded beaches of Santraginus V, inhaling the heady sea vapours; you can sleep under it beneath the stars which shine so redly on the desert world of Kakrafoon; use it to sail a mini raft down the slow heavy river Moth; wet it for use in hand-to-hand combat; wrap it round your head to ward off noxious fumes or to avoid the gaze of the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal (a mindbogglingly stupid animal, it assumes that if you can’t see it, it can’t see you – daft as a bush, but very ravenous); you can wave your towel in emergencies as a distress signal, and of course dry yourself off with it if it still seems to be clean enough. Most importantly, a towel has immense psychological value…” So long Douglas, and thanks for all the fish…

Huzzah for Elon and his team at SpaceX for a successful liftoff with their Falcon 9 rocket, followed by the Dragon capsule docking with the International Space Station  -- the first hook-up with a commercial spacecraft. It's a new era with state and enterprise, both being intelligent and forward-looking for a change.

Last month, I was privileged to visit the magnificent SpaceX facility near Los Angeles, where Elon showed me the Dragon capsule.  Next step: reliably delivering vital cargo to the ISS. SpaceX has long-range plans to use Dragon as the basis for a crewed capsule to take astronauts to the space station, and eventually to Mars. Onward and upward...

And now we know something about BlueOrigin, a private entrepreneurial project by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, which appears to be a capsule whose lifting body shape will allow a great deal of cross-range maneuvering while hurtling at hypersonic speeds.  Also, ATK Inc of Utah has a candidate system for lifting capsules to Low Earth Orbit, and there are others, as well!  Privatizing this stuff was way overdue.  You'd think the folks who wanted this for decades - who yell endlessly for more private-commercial approaches - would give Obama some cred for finally doing it. 

==Trending toward the Future==

As this is being posted, I am at the Annual Future in Review... or FiRe ... conference in Laguna Beach, California, a gathering of tech entrepreneurs and venture folk and such, where I am the regular/resident futurist scifi-guy. I'll be helping run the "CTO Challenge." This year's topic - developing a plan to help all consumers use tech to better know what they are eating -- part of the 'quantified self movement.'  Also I will interview famed and sagacious author Kim Stanley Robinson, whose novel, 2312, has just been released.

How to identify the trends and ideas that will endure, leading to radical change, re-defining the world of tomorrow? Wired offers valid pointers: look for cross-pollinating ideas that span disciplines; surf the exponentials; look for virtuous cycles; and plan on increasing levels of openness and transparency.  Okay, I'll steer you to these tricks, since WIRED blabbed about them.  But still, they barely scratched my own, personal top ten Secrets of Master Prognosticators!

Here's one forward-looking concept... developing space-age travel here on Earth. ET3 -- Evacuated Tube Transport Technologies -- plans to go with an idea many of us discussed in the 1980s... riding maglev capsules in airless, friction free tubes at high speed (and low energy cost) at very high speed... say New York to Beijing in 2 hours.  Worth a web visit just to see the cool illustrations. And someday....

A $1 billion ultra high-tech city is about to be built – for a population of zero! CITE, the Center for Innovation, Testing and Evaluation will be a testing ground for intelligent traffic systems, self driving vehicles, green energy, resource recycling, smart grid networks, etc – a laboratory for emerging technologies from both public and private sectors. (No one to complain when electricity or water is shut off.)  The project will mimic a mid-sized city of 35,000, and will cover about 15 square miles. Location in southeast New Mexico. They’ll need security to keep the people out…

Honda has revealed plans for a rolling stool it now calls the Uni-Cub which users steer by the seat of their pants. Roll-over Segway!

Was Steve Jobs planning to build an “iCar”?  Huh!  In TINKERERS I showed a billboard: NEW FOR 2024, THE HONDA/APPLE iCAR!

And now for something completely different... algae farming! It’s a big deal (and I portray it in my new novel.) At long last, the glimmers and tentative hopes are apparently scaling up, led by members of the Mars family (yes, the candy makers) who have developed processes to take sewage from farms and cities, combine it from CO2 from factories, mix it under copious free sunlight, and put out oxygen and “green gold.” I’ll be meeting Heliae's CEO at this week’s “Future in Review" conference, in Laguna, California. 

==Looking downward==

Some call me a "transparency radical" because I push the notion that increased levels of light are generally likely to benefit us all, rather than harm us.  At least, light nourishes our science, democracy, markets and individual ability to hold the mighty accountable.  But I am no radical.  The Transparent Society discusses legitimate boundaries and exceptions.  Want to see radicals?  Have a glimpse at the "Transparency Grenade!" Toss it into a space and it collects and re-transmits detected network traffic and audio.  Deliberately provocatively made to resemble a Soviet grenade.  As art?  cool!  As a practical suggestion? Not so much...

I recently participated with many scholars in Phase 2 of the Drones At Home project -- a 2-day conference organized by the gallery@calit2 and the Center for Research in Computing and the Arts, under Professor Sheldon Brown. There were panels, screenings, and art openings, including presentations by Alex Rivera, the creator of the wonderful little sci fi film SLEEP DEALER and a brilliant one-hour, one-man performance play, Unmanned, about the rise of drones and cyborgism in modern life, by Jordan Crandall.

And while we're on the subject, see this: How killer drones are changing the way we conduct war.The Pentagon maintains a fleet of 19,000 drones, for aerial surveillance and reconnaissance, as well as targeted strikes, killing at least 3000 individuals classified as terrorists -- as well as 800 civilians, according to human rights groups.

NASA's Dawn mission scientists have released a  video depicting the satellite's fly-over of the distant asteroid, Vesta, a "proto-planet" in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

==Cool Stuff==

Always been a big fan of "powers of ten" style zoom-in and zoom-out graphics and films that bring home the incredible ranges of scale that we must deal with, in our puny, brittle minds.  Now see the latest, a super-cool slide-able illustration that really brings it home. Dizzingly fun: An interactive scale of the universe that takes youfrom a hydrogen atom to a cell to a human to a star to our galaxy, local super-clusters and beyond. Explore!

Last time, I linked to the terrific Teaser and the incredible Preview-Trailer and teaser by Patrick Farley for my new novel, Existence. 

Now have a look at our totally revised website.  A total makeover from the old davidbrin.com.

I've just had a slew of audio books released from Audible: The Postman, Earth, Kiln People, Startide Rising and more...

While we're showing off trailers, here's a glimpse at one concocted by Orbit, my publisher in the U.K., for their special, limited edition, "3-D cover" for the first printing of EXISTENCE.  They are going for a much starker, less traditionally sci fi marketing approach.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Space-Launch Mass Drivers and von Neumann machines: Science meets Science Fiction

The notion of gun-propelled launch goes back to Jules Verne. Such Mass Drivers have been envisioned in numerous Sci Fi tales, including Earthlight, by Arthur C. Clarke, Robert A. Heinlein's The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, and Heart of the Comet by Benford & Brin. We've also seen them portrayed in Buck Rogers, Babylon 5 and Halo. Now, two researchers propose that a space-capable mass driver may be feasible. Startram would act as an electromagnetic catapult, using maglev technology, to accelerate and launch spacecraft into orbit, without using rockets or propellant. James Powell and George Maise take a highly optimistic view, claiming that a system capable of launching payload into orbit for less than $40/kg could be built using existing technology—if we were to gather substantial international support.

Sloping a launcher along the western face of Mt. Chimborazo in Ecuador or Mt. Kenya would allow a very profitable/cheap launch system for cargo. But see the concept for a 1200 km long version (to spread out the g-load) for passengers! And yes, we studied stuff like this long ago, back when I worked at CalSpace.

A slanted mass drive along Chimborazo (and yes it needs to be near the equator) would need "super-capacitor" surge capability, far exceeding the ability of nuclear plants to deliver in real time. But here's how you do it:

You have several nuclear power plants--but their main job is to raise/pump water to several big/high artificial lakes. When you fire, you DRAIN those lakes through many-many-many rapid tubes to standard hydro-power turbines. The nukes are just for steady replenishment of the lakes.

This is highly do-able with existing tech. Especially if you have whirling tether grabbers awaiting in low earth orbit. These could snag the cargoes and give them circularization momentum... or else act as electrodynamic tugs from there.  (To learn the principles involved, see my short story Tank Farm Dynamo.)

Hence, the cargoes might not even have to take along the fuel to circularize and the tethers themselves use solar power to replenish the donated momentum. Again, there's nothing to research... just develop. We could be doing it within 5-10 years.

==Autofacs and von Neumann Machines==

Philip K. Dick’s 1955 post-apocalyptic story, Autofac, short for Automatic Factories, was one of the earliest fictional portrayals of nanotechnology and self-replicating machines – an example of von Neumann probes, which he called “Universal Assemblers.” Carl Sagan and Freeman Dyson both argued that the reason we have observed no self-reproducing probes in the universe is because the probes would spread like a cancer; building such probes would be suicidal to their creators and destructive to any species they encounter.

Indeed, Dick’s Autofac is set after war has devastated much of Earth; robotic autofacs scavenge and monopolize the planet’s remaining resources (“We mere people come second.”), to build devices that humans no longer need. Humans have lost the ability to communicate with or control the autofacs, as they continue their relentless autonomous activity: “Maybe some of them are geared to escape velocity. That would be neat – autofac networks throughout the universe.” Would it really? My next novel, Existence, will offer a new take on some of these probes…

==Terminator Goggles==

Augmented Reality is soon to arrive: Google Goggles are smart glasses with heads-up display that will stream in real time to a screen in your field of view, providing GPS, facial recognition, web info, entertainment (and ads)—operated by voice control and/or head motions. Image recognition tech will overlay names of colleagues or buildings, background on historic landmarks or artwork, restaurant or movie reviews. Will all this expand soon (as I portray in a coming novel) to plaster everyone on the street with nametags? Perhaps credibility ratings ... or the opinions and "reviews" of past dates or spouses?

==And more Science Fiction==

An article about our ongoing efforts to use science fiction as a tool for teaching and stimulating bright minds -- Reading for the Future -- has been published in the December 2011 issue of VOYA (the magazine for young adult librarians).  It's a worthy effort that will continue at this year's World Science Fiction Convention in Chicago, next August. Read about how Sci Fi can help save the next generation and civilization! Tell teachers and librarians. And consider helping. Also see a collection of resources for using Science Fiction in the classroom.

Isaac Asimov identified three basic types of science fiction scenarios: What if, If only and If this goes on…. Paul Di Filippo has written - in a cover piece for Salon - a fascinating review of two recent sci fi novels exploring Big Ideas of the ‘What if’ category. In Arctic Rising, Tobias Buckell spins a massive geoengineering project to counter climate change. Meanwhile Matt Ruff’s The Mirage is an alternate history in which America is a backward, fundamentalist nation, breeding terrorists responsible for destroying the World Trade Towers of Baghdad…Well worth a look.

And now Elon Musk, of SpaceX, claims that within ten years, he will be able to send passengers to Mars (and back!) for $500,000. Science or science fiction?  Only a fool would bet against Elon.  So I might as well sign on!