What JoeB oughta do right now... and your annual appeal to use your PROXY POWER!

This posting got delayed for many reasons. But the first of several topics won't wait. Because next week is Giving Tuesday! 

So first off...

Each year I talk about proxy activism. The best way you can, with minimal fuss or even attention, help to save the world (or do good things) by helping others to save the world for you!

Here is an excerpt from a web page where you can learn much more:

Proxy Power is the uniquely convenient — but seldom discussed — ability of a modern person to participate in activism... helping to change or improve the world... by the simple expedience of joining some group that is already vigorously pursuing that part of your personal agenda.  

It's simple: you add both your membership dues and the political impact of your membership, in order to get behind people who are striving to save the world for you.

There is a wide and eclectic variety of such organizations to choose from. The groups that you select will, presumably, contain passionate and well-informed people who agitate — or act — in ways that are explicitly laid out in the group's magazine or web site. Hence, you can know in advance how well their program matches your own hopes and goals for the world.

Of course, millions of people already do this. (I deem these NGOs one of the greatest inventions of the 20th Century - and Vlad Putin hates em!) 

In fact, the expansive range of activist organizations can be looked upon as a vast market place, selling options on a better world. Every person's own list of memberships will be different, reflecting a particular — or peculiar — set of values and concerns. A set that can adjust yearly, depending on the individual's passion...(environment? space? poor kids? civil liberties?) ...and available cash. 

Millions of dollars in membership dues pour through organizations that range from The Sierra Club and Habitat for Humanity to The Planetary Society to the ACLU and Electronic Frontier, from Donors Choose to Doctors without Borders, empowering and encouraging these groups to keep fighting or doing good works... (continues)

Seriously, you can design your list of proxy NGOs to suit all your notions of a better world, efforts that are world, national, or local! (Example: here's one helping expand a crowded elementary school in Tijuana and adding adult education.)

Again, if you have priorities, then someone is working on exactly that. Scan the Proxy Power site for suggestions. But I have confidence you can find more. Ask yourself: "What is a better world worth to me?"

And speaking of saving the world...

== Back to political perspectives, starting with what Biden should do NOW! ==

President Biden turns 81 today. And okay, his age is all folks talk about, trying to divide the only coalition that stands any chance of saving our nation and world. Only dig it: I don't care if he naps! He appointed 10,000 skilled, smart and honest folks to replace 10,000 shills and crooks and Kremlin-agent Trumpists. 

That's issue #1 for me. With Austin, Blinken etc on the job, and the intel/FBI/military officer corps now back to doing their jobs, I can sleep nights. And yeah, Kamala too. 

But sure, let's confront the age issue head on. HERE'S WHAT JOBEE SHOULD SAY: 

"Okay it's totally legit to question whether age affects my sharpness. And so, especially after watching the GOP clown-car 'debates', I want to show that not all politicians are raving ninnies. So let's have Democratic party primary debates! 

"For one thing, the contrast will be stunning. It will show how deep our bench is, stuffed with cogent adults from many generations and regions, arguing policy with courtesy and wisdom. 

"Sure I plan to be the nominee! But should we turn down free air time and a great platform to show how we Democrats overflow with vigorous, smart NON-clowns? And how we talk real issues, like saving the planet and repairing infrastructure and respecting science and advancing justice and bringing manufacturing back to America, amid the best economy in 40 years? 

"So, bring it, kids! Let's have fun showing the nation how grownups argue and learn from each other, with courtesy, mutual respect, humor and wisdom!"

What an opportunity that would be, for a win-win-win. If only.

== The totally intentional mess in the U.S. Congress ==

Oh, but what a clown car the party of Lincoln, Ike and Goldwater* has become!!

As I write this, the insane cluster-f**** in the House of Representatives continues, as the slim Republican majority - achieved through cheats like gerrymandering - continues to obey their fundamental dictum -- "Never negotiate, never govern, never legislate, never lead" vow that has been the core of the GOP ever since 1996, when Dennis "friend to boys" Hastert (Jim Jordan's mentor) ruled that no Republican may ever again do those things. 

IDEALLY the way out would be to end gerrymandering so primaries, dominated by partisan radicals, would no longer empower radical cultists to bully representatives into mania. 

IDEALLY light would drive the blackmailed out of politics. 

IDEALLY a large segment of 'decent' Republicans would split off from the madness, the way Liz Cheney did, and save something of American conservatism, before it is too late.

Won't happen? I know. But there IS a maneuver that might at least help bandaid the current mess!

Put up to a vote a temporary house rule allowing motions & votes to - for just two months - be done by SECRET BALLOT! 

For just those two months, the decent 20% of GOP lawmakers... plus maybe another 50% who at least aren't utterly crazy or Putin-blackmailed... would be free to negotiate and pass essential bills with Democrats, while retaining a way to tell their radicals: "Who... ME?"

It's a simple, procedural workaround... and the rule change would require only some guts and patriotism from just a dozen or so 'decent republicans'... allowing the rest of 2023 to see stuff actually done, on our behalf.

There are SO many other tactics that might shift the current chest-to-chest thumping and preening that has replaced actual, negotiated politics in the USA.

If anyone out there is interested in trying some agile toctics, my book remains (alas!) just as relevant as when I wrote it.

See Polemical Judo, by David Brin, if you are among those who still reads.

=====

* Did you know that the State of Arizona draws 17.3% of its electrical power from the spinning in Barry Goldwater's grave?  

(Yeah, I made that one up! Colbert call me! ;-)

Proxy Power, Pandora hopes, debacles and memes.

Before diving into some important intellectual content, let's briefly contemplate one moment from the past and one vastness of future. First, it's exactly 50 years since the most exhausting and scary year any Boomer ever experienced – 1968 – started drawing to its fervently-welcomed close. 

You think 2018 was rough? Any single week of 68's relentless assassinations, invasions, ructions, riots, wars, marches… and unbelievable artistic/musical/scientific fecundity… woulda killed any of you young snowflakes! But I’ve written elsewhere -- in one of my best essays -- about how 1968 ended with a wonderful gift. The very last news item – Apollo 8’s first human visit round the moon – gave us one of the most important works of art in human history -- our first full image of this gorgeous oasis planet, our Earth. 

I was reminded of the story of Pandora’s Box, which unleashed upon the world so many ills, and yet there, at the bottom, was the gift of hope. Here's another writer's fond memory of that wondrous end to a hard year. 

Now Robert Picardo, Star Trek actor and my fellow member of the Planetary Society Advisory Council, presents a survey of the mighty accomplishments that your civilization achieved this last year, in space alone. Culminating in the exciting flyby, almost exactly at the tolling of New Years, of our faithful New Horizons probe past faraway Ultima Thule. Tune in! When we apply ourselves, with confidence, we achieve miracles.

 Which brings us to my annual appeal. You can be part of every good trend taking place on this globe. You can be part of fighting every bad one. 

The greatest western invention of the second half of the 20th Century... and the one that Vladimir Putin openly hates more than anything... is the NGO or non-governmental activist organization. NGOs are the great equalizer between average citizens and the world's titan elites. And here's the deal... 

...pick any six issues you care about, and there's probably an org out there for each one! A group that would pool your annual dues with a million others, letting them hire researchers and lawyers on a par with the biggest corporations and the richest moguls!

Yes, I count the Planetary Society on my list. (I hope you will, too.) And I've been with the Sierra Club and Greenpeace each for more than 50 years. (Hey, I wrote EARTH!) 

Even disagreeing with some prescriptions, I send money to the ACLU and Electronic Frontier Foundation and urge you to send a piddling membership to help them fight for all of us. (It's not just the money, but also strength in numbers.) Emily's List helped elect enough women so that Nevada's State Assembly is the first with a female majority!  Lawrence Lessig's Equal Citizens is nonpartisan fighting to end cheating in politics. But make your own list.

You can see (and get others to link-to) my main article about The Power of Proxy Activism. Tis the season? (Note that your charitable contributions might have more tax benefits this year, than next.) But it's always time to save the world. Seriously. If you can't bring yourself to do this much, then stop spouting opinions all over; it's just hot air and noise. Put a little money where your mouth goes.

Key point: this method requires almost none of your precious time... and very little money... while you go about your busy lives, knowing you have hired others to save the world for you!  

What a deal.

== Dichotomies and memes ==  

“Memetic Tribes and Culture War 2.0” by Peter Limberg and Conor Barnes describes how the old left-right dichotomy no longer provides a sufficient map of the political territory we find ourselves in. It’s a fascinating and perceptive piece, though I feel it misses core points. 

First, much of the current culture war is about elites persuading large numbers of Americans that their most basic reflex – suspicion of authority (preached in every Hollywood film) -- should be aimed at just one set of figures, and not at others. We all view ourselves as heroic members of an in-the-know resistance!

Can I make that clear for you? Left or right used to be less about economics in the U.S. than about where you feel Big Brother is rising.

To a person of the "right" -- the Orwellian elites are snooty academics and faceless government bureaucrats, or

To a person of the "left" -- those conniving to end freedom are aristocrats, oligarchs and faceless corporations.

But in the general sense, aren't both sides correct to worry?  Don't cheaters drift into every niche of dogma, hoping to exploit it for power?  Shouldn't we be wary in all directions?

In “normal times" we are! A liberal might admit “in theory tech people or bureaucrats could be dangerous, so you conservatives watch them while we target those who would re-establish feudalism.” And decent conservatives would avow the reverse. Synergy!  

Alas, the main purpose and aim of our enemies has been to get Americans targeted ONLY at their bêtes noir, and never to turn their heads!  That synergy hasn’t worked in a very long time.

Here’s the deal. While the entire American right and much of the far-left may now be in tunnel vision mode, only able to see enemy-action in the direction their noses are pointed, this is not true of the vast majority of American liberals, as shown by the story of MSNBC. That network tried to imitate the fantastically successful profit plan of Rupert Murdoch, to create an obligate Nuremberg rally for one third of the American populace to zombie stare-at, 8 hours a day.  MSNBC tried a left wing version of Fox... and almost went bankrupt, because most liberals simply wandered away, not wanting to be led in chants.  

Yes, that network still caters to an anti-right stance. But it never could copy the Fox business model of staring-chanting drones. For survival, they backed off and chose instead to maintain journalistic standards.

Yes, the generally “left-moderate” or Democratic coalition contains sub groups who behave in ways that fall under Limberg-Barnes models. Social Justice Warriors? Sure, they exist. That does not even imply, let alone prove equality of tribalism. ‘Contains’ is not the same as ‘consists.” Nor is ‘far-left’ equivalent to ‘entire-right.’

Another test is whether a “tribe” preaches positive, zero, or negative sum messages. The former -- rare across human history -- predisposes a person or group toward negotiation, even compromise. The latter would include those like Steve Bannon who call for a violently cleansing world crisis. Or dominionists who seek a prophesied end of the world. While there are small groups of Earth fanatics on the left (I portray this in my novel EARTH), negative-sum is not common in the American center or moderate left. Nor even much zero sum, as I describe in my article Altruistic Horizons & our tribal natures.

  

What does it take for an American faction to be passionately motivated but not be a “tribe” in the Limberg-Barnes sense?  How about willingness to use and adapt-to fact based modification?  When the far-left and the entire-right in the US are waging open war against every single fact-centered profession, what remains is a center and moderate-left to which nearly every scientist, teacher, journalist, law professional and “deep state” member of the fact-using protector caste has fled.

So no, sorry. This is not simply about degree of vehemence and opposition to perceived dangerous foes. There are verifiable parameters that illuminate the degree to which a ‘tribe’ is monomaniacal or tunnel-visioned in their opposition to perceived threats. Those parameters amount to what's called "evidence."

And hence, opposition to an overwhelmingly-proved oligarchic-feudalist putsch is not “tribal.” Not when it is utterly blatant.

And finally...

I was among the earliest calling this a phase of the American Civil War… Phase Eight, to pin it down. The same anti-modernist, confederate culture romanticism that helped Cornwallis in 1778 and rampaged across the North from 1852 to 1860, and fought for slave-killing plantation lords in the 1860s, and raved to defend lynchings, smog, tobacco, Jim Crow, casinos, carbon lords and the Kremlin have now taken Washington and made “facts” the ultimate emblem of demonic possession. Now see a list of early “battles” in the last two years, as the heat builds and violence accelerates.

Economics wonks! A new book by Ray Dalio called Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises examines those debt cycles and what we can do about them, examining 48 modern debt crises, sorting them into different types and then analyzing each type.

Impeachment junkies, have a closer look at what is waiting on the wings. Donald Trump would be vastly more dangerous as a martyr, high on daily rallies, no longer constrained by office. Trump would embrace and be embraced by the Dominionist-Christians, determined to bring the world's End Times, ringing down the curtain on all freedom, diversity, curiosity, progress... and an end to the United States of America... and an end to all future generations of children. 

Put it that way to them! There is no purer definition of treason than the scenario that these folks openly and proudly avow that they pray-for, every single day.

Visualizing the future - and ways you can change it

While attending the Future in Review (FiRe) Conference in Park City Utah, I participated in talks about AI, trends in computing, visualization, entrepreneurship etc.  

Notable was this year’s CTO Challenge about “visualizing visualization,” and presentations about breakthroughs in understanding the retina and neurons, new steps in supercomputing, and risk-management software tools. Nascent companies of significance include a new type of combo solar roof that also condenses water out of the air, purifies other water, uses it to cool solar panels to higher efficiency, and pre-cool the home. (“The 24 hour solar roof Co.") Improved generators & motors, and other cool breakthroughs. Also, thorough discussion of the all-out campaign to steal the fruits of western and American creativity.

Should we fear or embrace the future? The BBC ran an extended interview with various futurist mavens at the recent FiRe, discussing innovation, and cyber-security… and saving the best for last, a bit of blather from yours-truly, about how we may make peace and live with artificial intelligences. And yes, it will be worth the wait.

Artificial Intelligence has replaced both transparency and national security as the #1 topic I am asked to speak and consult about. A fairly vivid tech business site asked me - and 21 other mavens — for predictions on how AI will impact the enterprise workplace.  

Meanwhile, are we self-lobotomizing?  It appears that  half of the American population is addicted to at least one behavior. 

We obsess over our emails, Instagram likes, and Facebook feeds; we binge on TV episodes and YouTube videos; we work longer hours each year; and we spend an average of three hours each day using our smartphones. Half of us would rather suffer a broken bone than a broken phone, and Millennial kids spend so much time in front of screens that they struggle to interact with real, live humans.  See a review of Irresistible: The Rise of Addictive Technology and the Business of Keeping Us Hooked by Adam Alter.

  

== Apparently, some folks are listening… ==

I’m #52 in a compilation of “Top 100 digital influencers.” Some of the people below me are brilliant! Indeed I am puzzled both to be there and by a lack of Vint Cerf.  Yes, this is one fellow’s personal list, so fine! 

Here’s video of my talk on the future of A.I. to a packed house at IBM's World of Watson congress in Las Vegas, October 2016. A punchy tour of big perspectives on Intelligence, as well as both artificial and human augmentation.

Meanwhile, wearing my “Mr. Transparency” hat, I just published: “No One Said It Would Be Easy: Copcams, sousveillance and the revolution of rising expectations,” in the first issue of the Journal of Science & Popular Culture - now available online. "Science permeates contemporary culture at multiple levels, from the technology in our daily lives to our dreams of other worlds in fiction."

 The Journal of Science & Popular Culture is a peer-reviewed academic publication that seeks to explore the complex and evolving connections between science and global society."  My article in issue #1, volume 1, is pp. 77–82 , 2017.

== Some are trying to make us smarter ==

The brilliant folks at "X" - the Alphabet (Google) company that takes on grand challenges - used stratospheric balloons to deliver emergency internet services to Puerto Rico. "Working with AT&T, Project Loon is now supporting basic communication and internet activities like sending text messages and accessing information online for some people with LTE enabled phones."

Project Loon is a network of stratospheric balloons designed to deliver internet connectivity to rural and remote areas worldwide. Loon balloons sail on winds in the stratosphere, extending the reach of our telecommunication partner’s networks into areas that are currently unconnected.This is terrific and helps make up for the way the federal government has failed 3 million US citizens down there. But it shows once again how much of our resilience depends on access to communications, a point I have been making in nonfiction, fiction, speeches and consults with agencies. Foremost...

...the chips in our cell phones could already allow peer-to-peer (P2P) text passing from phone to phone in afflicted areas without working cell towers. If this capability were simply turned on, many places would see far better citizen robustness and local problem solving!  See where I go into detail, here. And it is almost criminal that this one small thing, which might double national resilience, has been blocked by very obtuse men.

Oh, but – “Purdue Engineering researchers have developed a system that can show what people are seeing in real-world videos, decoded from their fMRI brain scans — an advanced new form of  “mind-reading” technology that could lead to new insights in brain function and to advanced AI systems.” 

One envisions how it could empower Big Brother so that no resistance will ever be possible. Or else…

…empower us all, if we can apply these tools upon politicians and the mighty, to make sure that Big Brother happens… never.

Heck... while we're peering ahead... If tachyon neutrinos exist, then there are some interesting ramifications: It isn't often that you see the word "gobsmacking" in an abstract ...

== Holiday wishes?  You (yes, you!) can save the world (personally!) ==

It's a good season to re-evaluate... and each of us taking responsibility for the future, as best we can.

For example, as we've seen in a year of weather extremes, hurricanes, fires etc., both natural and man-made disasters are always looming. I've long advocated that all citizens engage in the kind of preparedness that both Boy Scouts and Mormons practice out of habit. I also trained to be a member of our local CERT (Community Emergency Response Team). At least have a look at the program and consider taking the mere 20 hours of training. It’s all that remains of Civil Defense in the U.S. (Find your equivalent, in other nations.)

(In fact, I took it to the next level and trained to join the California Disaster Corps. I have the uniform and prepared my go bag, in case I am ever called.  CERT is to help your own community (and I’ve donned the green gear a few times.) CDC might summon me to wear dark blue anywhere in the state.)

There are other ways to be ready, without going all out to the prepper or survivalist (or even Holnist) extremes. Take this fellow’s cogent compilation of ways that you can help others, even far away, get through emergencies.

Of course we must prevent the preventable, which is why this time of year I urge everyone to read my “proxy activism” posting, that describes what average people can do to save the world — in exactly whatever set of priorities you think best!

I list worthy groups from Doctors Without Borders to Oxfam International  as well as The Planetary Society, Donors Choose (for schools) and Habitat for Humanity.

The method that I offer leaves all decisions and goals up to you, whether you view yourself as an environmentalist or a libertarian or Vegan activist! Moreover it's just right for a lazy person, (like you?) Do what I recommend and you can sit back, at least knowing that you helped others to save the world for you!

(Use each December as your season to reflect, adjust, and renew memberships. Don't worry... I'll remind you.)

One thing we do know: if you aren’t doing this much - this basic minimum - then you are one of those who later generations may curse. And they may have that power. It wouldn’t put anything past ornery humanity!

So do at least the minimum.  And then, when we narrowly save it all, you’ll get to be one of the smug ones who take credit.

Last-minute breakthroughs and remembrances, before the "end of the world"

I'll try to post while traveling, on our way to stand upon a Mayan Temple during the solstice and defy the World's End on your behalf!  Meanwhile, let me drop in a few late developments... plus a potpourri of wondrous science.

 == NOTES FROM THE NEWS ==

My neighbor Ravi Shankar passed away.  I can't say I knew him, but attended some concerts over the years. The neighborhood already seems less vivid, somehow. Though that may just be the blustery chill of winter... Ah well. He was brilliant.

As for the recent launch of a satellite by North Korea, upon a rocket with clear intercontinental potential, I can only repeat my earlier recommendation to the U.S. Administration.  One important part of the solution to the "North Korea problem" would arise by announcing that the Hermit Kingdom's actions will all be attributed and accounted to the legal responsibility of its biggest supporter, enabler and protector.  That includes nuclear missile launches, of course, but especially civil tort damages. Moreover, starting now we advise that supporter-neighbor to begin setting aside funds to deal with future lawsuits for personal civil damages borne by the North Korean people themselves.

I do not say this in a spirit of hostility but rather as friendly caution from a futurist! You want to prepare in case historical momentum continues. Those northern Koreans - when inevitably they become free - will look for the deepest pockets among those who, through action or inaction, fostered the harm done to them, or enabled the harm-doers. And in tomorrow's primly law-woven world, they and their lawyers will not have far to look. That's not ideology or hostility; it is simple cause-and-effect. And stone-walling to prevent that day will only make it much worse. Make that point and the pragmatic men-next-door may decide to limit the exposure of their bad investment, by cutting a deal.

And now... science...

== Can we predict the future? ==

First, the National Intelligence Council has issued its quadrennial 160 page Global Trends report, this time peering ahead toward the year 2030.  My favorite territory. This set of world forecasts and scenarios appears, at last, ready to break from the transfixing obsessions of the past -- vast blocs of supranational ideology or else ideology-driven terrorists.

Instead, the NIC examines deeper drivers that might affect whether Earth Civilization prospers or not, and what role the United States and the West will continue to play, as Pax Americana gradually eases out of its historic mission. Indeed, it looks as if some folks who have attended my Washington talks about the future may have heeded or cribbed-from my report from almost a decade ago, to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency DTRA, about non-state and non-terror threats.

Compare the NIC Global Trends document to those earlier slides attempting to get folks to think more broadly about the future.

Meanwhile, the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is being co-launched by astronomer royal Lord Rees, one of the world’s leading cosmologists. It will probe the “four greatest threats” to the human species, given as: artificial intelligence, climate change, nuclear war and rogue biotechnology. Lord Rees, who has warned that humanity could wipe itself out by 2100, is launching the centre alongside Cambridge philosophy professor Huw Price, and Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn.

Interesting that the four threats they chose happen to be chief topics featured in Existence.
Also of interest: a rebuttal on the Da Vinci Institute site takes on Nassim Taleb, author of the bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, who ridicules the idea of predicting the future. Instead, he argues that the world is dominated by the impact of rare, unforeseen, random, highly improbable and yet influential events. "These Black Swans, he says, happen abruptly, coming from outside the range of our vision."

I found the rebuttal interesting- at times on target - yet in the end just as quasi mystical as Taleb's book.  Because neither of them offer challenging ways to assess and appraise and improve (pragmatically) the process of prediction.

At risk of (typical) self-promotion, I do believe there's an approach that -- if even marginally funded -- could help move the whole field forward via means of predictions registries and fora. How I am tempted, after all these years, to try to fund it myself... if college bills weren't such a big deal .

More efforts at prediction can be found in the annual forecast list of the World Future Society.  The plausible ones seem rather likely... new dust bowls, a rapid rise in commercial space tourism, eyesight-restoration, teaching based in games, deep-geothermal power,   Others, like garbage purifying robot earthworms and lunar colonies, fall more into the sci fi zone and are not as near future as they seem to think. Have a look and join the WFS.  Though... alas... I'd still expect just a few "futurists" to survive long under scrutiny of a registry. Whereupn, the best would learn and adapt!

== Genetic "variability" and our future evolution ==

Recent studies indicate that humanity is now very, very rich in genetic variability, the grist of future evolution. (Exactly opposite to the problem faced by inbred cheetahs, for example.) “Humans today carry a much larger load of deleterious variants than our species carried just prior to its massive expansion just a couple hundred generations ago,” said population geneticist Alon Keinan of Cornell University, whose own work helped link rare variation patterns to the population boom.

From the article: The inverse is also true. Present-day humanity also carries a much larger load of potentially positive variation, not to mention variation with no appreciable consequences at all. These variations, known to scientists as “cryptic,” that might actually be evolution’s hidden fuel. Indeed, the genetic seeds of exceptional traits, such as endurance or strength or innate intelligence, may now be circulating in humanity. “The genetic potential of our population is vastly different than what it was 10,000 years ago,” Akey said. How will humanity evolve in the next few thousand years? It’s impossible to predict but fun to speculate, said Akey.

 A potentially interesting wrinkle to the human story is that, while bottlenecks reduce selection pressure, evolutionary models show that large populations actually increase selection’s effects. 

My own comment: In nature, evolution is based not only upon genetic variability (in which this research suggests we are rich) but also on death, culling some and allowing others to breed.  A crude, brutal method that is inherently un-interested in "fairness" ... but time tested by nature. This will change though. We will choose instead to steer the process via culture and technology while continuing to develop our capacity to collaboratively evade death - the old engine of evolution. What replaces death? The article's authors suggest that widespread use of reproductive technologies like fetal genome sequencing might ease selection pressures, or even make them more intense.  But in his novel Beyond This Horizon, Robert Heinlein showed us how to grab ahold of our variability and use it in a campaign of self-improvement that has none of the creepy aspects of direct genomic meddling.

Ponder that finding... that humans have max'd-out genetic diversity... and nowhere more so than in my California... almost as if we were a flower, getting ready to cast forth seeds...

Meanwhile, there's an interesting article with huge implications for the future of anthropology. In an essay by George Dvorsky: Over at the Edge there's a fascinating article by Thomas W. Malone about the work he and others are doing to understand the rise of collective human intelligence — an emergent phenomenon that's being primarily driven by our information technologies.  Malone, who is the Director at MIT's Center for Collective Intelligence, studies the way people and computers can be connected so that — collectively — they can act more intelligently than any single person, group, or computer. Good stuff, but I'd have liked more attention to the older methods that have leveraged individual intelligence into group intelligence. The positive-sum enlightenment methods of markets, science, democracy etc.

== Wondrous and Puzzling Science ==

NASA's Cassini orbiter spots river system on Titan ... but filled with liquid ethane and methane instead of water. The Titanic Nile shows up on a black-and-white picture from Cassini's radar imager, which can look through Titan's thick, smoggy atmosphere to map the surface features beneath.

A U.S. start-up has turned to nature to help bring water to arid areas by drawing moisture from the air.

Ah, progress. Soon anyone with a good home-maker unit will be able to print the parts to make their own firearms. Reminds me of Van Vogt's The Weapon Shops.  I guess we'll find out if John W. Campbell was right that "an armed society is a polite society."  I imagine we'll all get more polite... after twenty generations of culling.

Speaking of which, a use of such devices that will be both more useful and creepier, illustrated cartoon style! 
Frankentissue: How to print an organ on your inkjet.

Weird...time reversal research: When a signal travels through the air, its waveforms scatter before an antenna picks it up. Recording the received signal and transmitting it backwards reverses the scatter and sends it back as a focused beam in space and time.

Exactly fifty years ago... Mariner 2 was the first human-made object to transmit back from another planet. And at 12 I mourned the Venus of vast oceans and jungles and beauteous princesses. Sigh. Science can be rough. I went into it, anyway.

Bothered by negative thoughts? Throw them away.

Large scale melting of Permafrost may be underway.

Some recent studies indicate glucosamine (used by millions for slight joint pain reduction)  was associated with a significant decreased risk of death from cancer and with a large risk reduction for death from respiratory disease.

Late last year, a Russian team drilled through to Lake Vostok, an even larger lake covered by some 4km of ice. But preliminary analyses of lake water that froze on to the drill bit showed scant evidence for the presence of living organisms. Now researchers at the shallower McMurdo lakes have found a diverse community of bugs living in the lake's dark environment, at temperatures of -13C. Some think this a possible analog for ice-roofed water moons like Europa.

Ten things that will disappear in thirty years.

== Space!!! ==

Know the difference between radioisotope nuclear power for spacecraft and nuclear reactors for spaceflight? The distinction is fascinating. Have a look at DUFF, a new reactor for space travel.

Some parodies are better than the originals! A takeoff of "Dumb Ways to Die" ... starring NASA's Curiosity rover..."Cool Things to Find." --

Water ice discovered on Mercury. NASA's Messenger spacecraft has spotted vast deposits of water ice around the shade-protected poles on the planet closest to the sun. Not unexpected, since radar beams from Arecibo in the 1990s had suggested this, confirming a hypothesis made by my doctoral advisor, Dr. James Arnold, that comets would have delivered volatiles to safe dark areas at the poles of both Mercury and our Moon.  Still, Messenger's neutron spectrometer spotted hydrogen, which is a large component of water ice. But the temperature profile unexpectedly showed that dark, volatile materials – consistent with climes in which organics survive – are mixing in with the ice. And waiting for us?

NASA seeks concepts for two Hubble-sized telescopes. Last year, two big space telescopes, equivalent to NASA's Hubble Space Telescope in aperture, but designed to have a much wider field of view, were transferred from one of America's super secret spy agencies to NASA. "Because there are two telescopes, there is room for projects that span the gamut of the imagination," and indeed, NASA is now seeking suggestions what to do with these gifts. (Viewed from another angle, one has to realize and ask: was the Hubble itself primarily a way to provide cover for a program to develop spy devices?  I'm not complaining... or even asking! I wouldn't be told, despite my clearance.  Still, one wonders. If these are now cast-offs... what do they have now?)

How NASA might build its first warp drive.

== And finally ... ==

Late puzzler!  The earliest large life forms (ediacaran) may have appeared on land long before the oceans filled with creatures that swam and crawled and burrowed in the mud.

Finally... followup in the spirit of giving: My friend Lenore Ealey --  a sage in the field of philanthropy theory - kindly wrote about my "proxy power" proposal -- that middle class folks can maximize their future impact on the world by joining perhaps a dozen groups/organizations that pool dues and numbers to pursue specific positive goals.  Lenore's appraisal compares my approach to those of Boulding and Cornuelle with some Baconian philosophical perspective thrown in! Also, she adds a list of favorite NGOs of her own for consideration.  Go Proxy Power. 

====

Late addendum: The Friday 13th tragedy in Connecticut has us all horrified.  If only we could mature enough to have a society that foremost looks to help the troubled to get the help they need. Alas, this will become another frenzy over "gun control" that sheds no light, only heat. I once attempted to offer a non-partisan, off-angle compromise that would satisfy both those wanting sanity and those seeking to preserve a fundamental American right. It is as cogent as ever. See "The Jefferson Rifle." 

But at this point, there is something even simpler.  A matter of cause and effect.  Not one mass shooter was ever brought down by an armed bystander, but most were tackled by heroic citizens who were UNARMED, who waited till the SOB had to change clips or magazines, then bravely tackled the guy. That is the window of heroism! Hence, there is no excuse for legally allowing the sale of giant ammo clips. You do not need em for hunting or self-defense. There is no slippery slope, so please check your reflex. See the reason in this.  Join us and don't make that a fight.  Just give it to us, this one small but crucially pragmatic reform. Now, show us this much flexibility.  For the victims.  Please, just be reasonable this once.

The Power of Proxy Activism - Part II

Continuing from Part 1 on Proxy Power: I think this is a deeply under-rated aspect of activism in modern life. And it also has under-recognized potential. While fanatical groups have become very good at fund raising - especially through morally coerced church tithing - Proxy Power represents the alternative for busy moderates, whose lives and work and kid schedules simply will not let them study or devote huge amounts of time, passion and cash to saving the world.

Yes, there are dangers, e.g. that some people will pick up their copy of OXFAM or SIERRA magazine and say “There! I have saved the world.” and walk away. This certainly happens.

Another danger is that the citizen will be talked into joining an org that is all show and no substance, or whose efficiency score is very low, devoting most of the dues-income to further fund raising, or a magazine that is too expensive and glossy.

But I just don’t see these as major problems, compared to the benefits. What happens more often is an interesting psychological quirk. Simply by virtue of having joined one activist group, a member starts to think of herself or himself as THAT type of person. It is easier to persuade them to donate double-dues to that org, next year. Or to join another organization that will address yet another sector of that person’s own perceived problem-space.

Essentially, what Proxy Power does is offer a wide array of activism PRODUCTS to consumers, well-packaged and pursued by devoted staff. It is a capitalist-style market of competing organizations - often using gloss and style as part of their pitch - presenting the potential small donor with a whole supermarket of philanthropic or activist choices.

Isn’t that what we want? (And yes, some of our chosen charities will oppose or cancel each other! Some of you out there send money to the Heritage Foundation, which opposes my libertarians and democrats in almost all ways, acting relentlessly to re-establish rule by aristocratic lords. So?

 The whole pragmatic process of the Enlightenment has been to foster lots of open ferment and competition. When it works, the result is a NET movement for the good of all. It is when such groups act to squelch others, erect barriers of secrecy, or evade debate, that we get a warped process.)

I am convinced that we need to look at this whole realm of activity with more than a cynical glance. It is working. It is doing good. Moreover, it does not ask of our fellow citizens - the busy ones, with frenetic jobs and school schedules - more time than they feel they can commit. (And time is the precious limited commodity!)

Some contend that, by taking this approach, you fritter your charity dollars in small bits, when a single, large donation may have more direct impact. There is some validity to this point. On the other hand, this ignores how your contribution is effectively doubledin an interesting way, each time you join a worthy group. Because they then also gain political impact and momentum, with every increase of membership rolls. As their paid numbers increase, they are better able to lobby... or to approach large donors and say “help leverage our momentum with a big contribution.” (This means that poor students, who join at the Student Rate, are still doing good.)

Finally, there is a service to you, the donor. You get to create a profile of your own personality, your passion and commitment, by choosing a dozen groups who will be your deputies in saving the world, while you are too busy to save it, yourself.

Indeed, this concept may deserve some stimulating investment by bigtime philanthropy! I have long felt that a helluva lot of good could be accomplished by some millionaire funding a small effort to get PROXY POWER out there, as a universal desideratum. One million dollars, spent pump-priming, in order to get a million Americans to do this, multiplying the results 500 fold.....

Think about it. Radicals of all kinds are already connected and tithing (and marching and arm-twisting politicians). But moderate citizens? Yes, they send a check and bags of clothes in a crisis. But day to day? The world seems frustratingly big and daunting. “What can I do?” They (reasonably) ask.

What if someone got on TV and showed how huge is the vast array of excellent active organizations, and further said: “No one is trying to convert you to pick any one of these. But if you don’t choose a FEW... sending dues to groups that you believe will help to save the world the way you want it saved... then aren’t you simply part of the problem?”

What about a nice web site devoted to this? Or better, a clearing house that scored and rated several hundred of these groups, so that folks could pick exactly which ones they want to encourage?

Well. That’s it about Proxy Power. Your thoughts are welcome.

PS.... how to deal with the subsequent junk mail from all these organizations? Some - on their membership forms - have a box telling them “don’t send me the magazine!” On the other hand, you can strategically leave the magiazine where it might do some good, at a library or barbers shop... just deface your address first.

==For a broader perspective, see: Horizons and Hope: The Future of Philanthropy

David Brin

http://www.davidbrin.com

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