Politics of Science...of Hypocrisy... and Transparency

 Several off-angle political threads, this time. Simultaneously partisan yet contrary, ornery and proudly free of the stupid “left-right axis.” Stay tuned next time, though, for an important one -- the Wager Challenge.

== Start with science ==

Now is the time to begin a hard push for the 2012 candidates to participate in a debate on science and technology matters, during the coming electoral season.  Make this an issue!  Shoe that you (you-personally) consider this to be a vital matter, and not just for the presidential candidates!

The one thing that will correlate with future U.S. success, more than any other, will be whether we become - once again - a scientifically-oriented, ambitiously pragmatic, problem solving nation.

Seriously, can you picture America being led by a science ignoramus? (Please, no obvious comments about recent history!)

If we get enough ground swell for this science debate to happen, we might see it every election, and scare the ignorami off entirely.  Please do check out the Science Debate site and actually sign-on. Press the issue.

See also: Unscientific America: Denying Science at Our Peril

== Shake that Etch-a-Sketch! ==  

Sure enough, as expected, the day after poll figures showed him gaining in Pennsylvania -  his last big primary to clinch the GOP nomination - Mitt Romney began his much-expected scurry-to-the-center. "We're Republicans and Democrats in this campaign, but we're all connected with one destiny for America...” and “We have a president who I think is a nice guy, but he spent too much time at Harvard, perhaps, or maybe just not enough time working in the real world."

Not exactly the red meat he was tossing to the party’s hard core, till very recently.  (Also, as the LA Times pondered: It is a potentially self-defeating line of attack: Romney spent four years at Harvard, receiving a law degree and an MBA; Obama spent three years there, graduating from the law school. Also, three of Romney's five sons attended Harvard Business School.)

Heck, while we’re at it... will the real Mitt Romney please stand up?  A funky funny video mash.

More intellectually diverting... see the "Quantum Theory of Mitt Romney," a very clever political spoof by a writer who has clearly consumed WAY too many pop-sci articles about quantum mechanics!  I especially liked the “principle uncertainty principle.”  Just when you think he must run out of QM parallels, he tunnels thru to more.

== If only we were still like this ==

“Born often under another sky, placed in the middle of an always moving scene, himself driven by the irresistible torrent which draws all about him, the American has no time to tie himself to anything, he grows accustomed only to change, and ends by regarding it as the natural state of man. He feels the need of it, more he loves it; for the instability; instead of meaning disaster to him, seems to give birth only to miracles all about him.”
-- Alexis de Tocqueville, writing about the national character he observed in Democracy in America.  

In truth... millions of us still are like this!  It is the mentality of folks who like good science fiction.

== Ah Transparency ==

Robert Wright‘s column in The Atlantic ponders how the Zimmerman-Martin tragedy might have gone very differently, if both men wore Google Glasses, video recording their encounter to the Cloud.  Awareness that there are witnesses affects human behavior, and even if it didn’t, we’d know exactly what happened.  Wright ponders this cogently - citing my nonfiction book The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force us to choose between Privacy and Freedom? - and goes on to ponder the downsides.  The potential that such records might be misused either by a Big Brother state or by hundreds of millions of nosy-oppressive “little brothers.”

He is correct to worry we are returning to the classic human condition that reigned in villages of old, wherein everybody knew everything about everybody else.  You might be safer from some kinds of random violence by strangers.  But those villages were also oppressed by the feudal lord and local harpy-gossips, who knew everything about you - and how to use it against you.

Our modern notions of anonymity and privacy stem in part from knowing how easily that cozy old village can turn sour.

Is this the kind of Global Village we’ll see, when everyone on Earth wears Augmented Reality Spectacles, or “specs”?  (As portrayed in my new novel Existence.)  Are we doomed by unstoppable omniscience technology to see ourselves trapped in spirals of ever-steepening, conformity-enforcing judgmentalism?

Not necessarily. in The Transparent Society I refer folks to the popular 1960s song Harper Valley PTA, which illustrates the inherent power of sousveillance, or looking back at the mighty.  There is already very strong evidence that it can let us have the good aspects of the village, and eliminate the bad in a true Positive Sum Game.  But only if the power of reciprocal accountability is true, and no mirage.

That is the critical matter before us.  The omni-vision provided by “specs” is coming, like it or not.  But we still have time to make this universal light truly empowering to average folk to protect their personal space and eccentricity, granting them one special capability, above all other godlike traits. The ability to be left alone.

== More on this. Reciprocality can be a bitch ==

What goes around comes around.  See how the landlord of an abortion clinic politely, but effectively, turned the tables on protesters who started targeting his 11 year old daughter.

A good example of reciprocality at work. Alas though, things keep getting worrisome.  I began writing The Transparent Society back in 1987, when I lived in Britain and witnessed the bare beginnings of the U.K.’s love affair with massive police surveillance.  Now that country is exporting the technologies to oppressive regimes around the world. Privacy International, which monitors the use of surveillance technology, claims equipment being exported includes devices known as "IMSI catchers" that masquerade as normal mobile phone masts and identify phone users and malware – software that can allow its operator to control a target's computer, while allowing the interception to remain undetected.

Want to see the latest salvo, fired by those who want society to go back to feudalism?  Conservatives are arming up for their war on public universities, trying to de-fund them, destroy them, and replace them with for-profit colleges. Seriously, it is even a slogan.  “Defund public universities.” If this is what conservatism has become, then we know what that whirring sound is: the spinning in Barry Goldwater's grave.

== The Good News on U.S. Energy Independence ==

Not only has the United States reduced oil imports from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries by more than 20 percent in the last three years, it has become a net exporter of refined petroleum products like gasoline for the first time since the Truman presidency. The natural gas industry, which less than a decade ago feared running out of domestic gas, is suddenly dealing with a glut so vast that import facilities are applying for licenses to export gas to Europe and Asia. ...  This surge is hardly without consequences!  But the turnaround may buy time to move to more sustainable energy sources.  And it may prove a factor in this year’s U.S. elections.

== Next time... the Wager Challenge! ==

I plan to offer a silver bullet for Culture War.  Oh, it won't solve our current political insanity, but it should offer sensible, fact-oriented folks like you and me a way to corner those loonies of the far-left and the entire-right who have transformed political discourse in the United States from a matter of pragmatic negotiation into outright Civil War.  Maybe even a way to get some of them to shut the &$!# up.

Come back next time for the Wager Challenge!

A Timely Warning To All New Democratic Members Of Congress

In observing - with some approval - today’s official transition from the corrupt, incompetent and astonishingly lazy 109th Congress, it is not without some worry that we greet the young and hopeful 110th. Will the cynics prove right? Will politicians do what they have so often in the past... fall into bad habits that soon tarnish their idealism?

Let me say that I am less worried about the things that dour pundits normally dwell upon -- e.g. political temptations like earmarking and lobbyist dinners -- than by something far more profound and potentially devastating. Today's topic is a vital alert that I hope will percolate through channels to every officeholder and/or sincere civil servant, during an era of political transition.

Indeed, it may also be pertinent to some members of the Republican establishment. For we are about to discuss a danger and an opportunity that cross party lines. We’ll be dealing with traits like honor and pragmatism, cynicism and patriotism, cynical self-protection... and courage.


While negotiating the ethical and political minefield that is Washington, always remain wary of a particular worst-case scenario... one that can systematically undermine even the most well-meaning politicians.

That worst-case scenario is BLACKMAIL.


--------- A Little Background -------------

All of you enthusiastic neophytes to national power, this may be the very moment for a little protective paranoia. Remember, some powerful people will see you as a threat to their interests. Some of the more unscrupulous may seek to neutralize that threat, using some classic methods known across history. One of the most basic ancient techniques - going back to biblical times - has been entrapment and blackmail.

Remember the U.S. Marine guards at our embassy in Moscow, some decades back? It all started when a few boys -- lonely and far from home -- were invited to party with some local "students." A little alcohol, then sex with local hookers... (where's the harm?)... were followed by a drug high or two... and a few lewd pictures... then some incriminating ones...

At any point, early on, those young men could have saved their own lives and served their country, simply by turning themselves in. The very first to do so might even have saved his career. Others could have escaped with minor punishments. Instead (alas), they let themselves be blackmailed, by gradual stages, into doing the KGB "just a few harmless favors"...

...relatively harmless, at first. Xeroxing a few embassy visitor lists. Penny-ante stuff. Only then, the Soviets had real dirt on the poor fellows. Proof of espionage that could produce real prison time. And meanwhile the girls and drugs kept coming. Plus flattery. ("You are special, james Bond types - above normal loyalties and laws." Very similar patterns of ego-milking helped to suborn the Walkers and that FBI agent, Hanssen.) Very soon, they were trapped. Fully in the pockets of their nation's enemies. And betraying really harmful secrets.


---------Do You Doubt That It Still Goes On? ------

Security experts and intelligence agents know all about this process, which has been used by kingdoms, empires, syndicates and unscrupulous groups since time immemorial. Indeed, all through World War Two and the Cold War, it was a key job of counter-intelligence professionals to watch carefully for hints of subornation. They collected and correlated patterns of travel, or unaccountable wealth or crony-favoritism, keeping a wary eye open for anything consistent enough to merit closer scrutiny.

So now? Does it really matter that our roster of “enemies” has changed a bit? The KGB is gone. But there are others who do not want our civilization to thrive. Or who would influence our top decision-makers in order to be better parasites. Anyone who thought that this classic danger ended with the Cold War has got to be titanically naive.

Moreover, consider this. Bribery is actually far less efficient and reliable than blackmail! If you bribe an official or representative, they may demand more, next time, or simply say “I helped you enough, this year.” But blackmail puts them in your pocket for good. It makes the victim less a business associate and more your personal servant.

Has this scenario already been in play, among members of the present ruling caste? Of course the imagination can run wild - colored by your degree of paranoia and your personal politics. (How else would you explain some decision patterns, in recent years, that seem relentlessly to benefit just a few hostile interest groups, over and over again? Always start by listing the big winners.) No, I won’t go into detail here as to who I think may be orchestrating present-day attempts at subornation. I have no proof... nor does that matter, since nobody can point to a single era of history when it did not happen.

We are better off assuming the tradition goes on. And that some enemies of our republic, our civilization, and the Western Enlightenment are doing it right now.


----- The Warning Applies To You. ----

Oh, you incoming Democratic lawmakers, don't be fooled by the fact that most known American traitors, across the last 40 years, were Republicans! (e.g. the Walkers, Hanssen, etc.) Democrats are fallible, corruptible and human, too! Indeed, there may be forces at work in DC, right now, who aim to test this methodology on the newest players in that wild and ethically-challenged town.

(Hence, even veteran Democratic representatives may only lately be interesting targets for subornation, now that their party has a majority.)

Even if I am exaggerating the current extent of suborned betrayal within the many branches and agencies and media that make up the American Establishment, this will always be a danger. A peril that can turn almost any friend of our civilization into a snake, dwelling in our heart.

Hence, let me offer a little advice to all loyal Americans - whether Republican or Democrat - who may be embarking upon careers along avenues of power.


------Take some simple precautions ----

1) Consign yourself to live a super-clean life. Become a personal prude. Back away from temptations, even if they take place in the apparently secure confines of (say) a billionaire's yacht or on a private estate, or a royal palace in some foreign land.

Especially in those environs! Because those may be the very people who would like to “own” a Representative or bureaucrat. The more flattering and friendly and ego-stroking they may seem - assuring you of secure and private pleasures - the stronger the possibility that the very walls may have cameras. Aimed in order to guarantee that you will remain a valued friend.

2) Hire a good professional paranoid for your staff. Someone who knows all about these nasty tricks and who can spot bait-lures on the horizon. Likewise, have a truly wise confidant to whom you can turn, when temptation comes your way. And don’t entirely trust either of them.

3) Have a scenario-plan worked out, for when you are approached with either a potential entrapment or a followup blackmail threat. Those first instants of surprise and confusion could be critical. If you are prepared (especially technologically),you may be the one to turn the tables on your persecutors... and thus do your nation a service out of all proportion to any "goods" that the bad guys have on you.

Indeed, talking this over among yourselves, you may also be well served to look into whether agencies like the FBI may offer pre-training services, empowering you, and others like you, to act decisively and confidently, when and if such a time comes. (And if they don’t offer such services, they sure ought to! Ask why not.)

4) Contemplate the algebra of forgiveness. Some of you reading this may have already tumbled over the edge. It may already have happened to you. Some moment of weakness or falling into temptation. Perhaps even blackmail based upon faked photos, or something you never did! Maybe you have been on a hellish spiral for years, hating yourself...

...or else rationalizing that you are really serving a superior side. That’s what human beings often do. Even the worst traitors seldom view themselves that way.

However it has come down, consider this. It's never too late to do the right thing. If the subornation process that I describe has been going on in a systematic and pervasive way, polluting our institutions and corrupting our trusted public servants, how do you think history will view the first of you to show some guts? The first to stand up and fight back?

If you do it with savvy and skill, somehow turning the tables on your blackmailers, can you even doubt that your nation will value the service, far higher than it disdains your original, disreputable deed?

5) Help foster a civilization that rewards openness and forgiveness. This is a long term goal. But if we keep making progress toward a civilization that has a sense of proportion about lesser human failings, then we may neutralize many situations that were, or remain, “blackmailable.” Little sexual lapses should matter less than graft and treason, for example. (but remember, once you are blackmailed for the one, you may then commit the latter and be blackmailed for THAT!)

In any event, we all need to help foster trends toward a nation and a world where people will feel safe to own up to their faults, rather than feeling terrified that their smaller slips and faults will doom their hopes. We should not be led by folks who are afraid of light.


--- The Situation Is Unstable: So Pick The Ultimate Winner. Civilization. --

The crux?

Consider this: blackmailers love to give their victims a sense of helpless isolation. But the sickness may be far more pervasive than you imagine. and spreading. For it is the nature of evil men that they are insatiable. They will keep trying whatever has been working, casting their nets wider and wider, under an illusion that the good times can go on forever...

...until, at last, they try these tricks on people who do have the courage, wit and patriotism to fight back. At which point, the whole vile deck of cards may come tumbling down.

Where will you be, when that happens? According to the algebra of redemption, only the first who blow the whistle will get to be heroes, forgiven all, rewarded with everything. After them will come the most agile rats, abandoning a sinking ship, tattling and pointing fingers, in exchange for partial clemency...

...and the last to come out will be hung.

History shows that this kind of thing is never stable. Either it will result in democracy being thoroughly corrupted and destroyed... as has happened many times before...

... or else such schemes will collapse, as American civilization continues its inexorable progress toward an open and transparent and accountable society.

In the first of these two eventualities, you may thrive, having sided with the new oligarchs. But you will know (deep inside) that you helped to end the Great Experiment. May it gnaw your guts.

But suppose what happens is the second outcome (and I have strong reason to believe that it will be so). Then the cowards who let themselves be blackmailed or cozened or suborned or bribed or flattered into treason will eventually be brought to light. And they will be sorry.

Either way, you can see what is at stake. So be careful. Take precautions. Cut through the rationalizations. Keep your eyes open.


--- You Chose This Path: So Remember Your Oaths. ----

If you seek the people’s trust and to be granted political power, that makes you a soldier. Live with it.

We are a civilization that is at war for its very survival. Moreover, “terrorists” are among the most pallid and laughable of our enemies. There are worse threats to the continuation of a Great Experiment in open civilization, in science and democracy, in social mobility, in truly free markets and a joyfully open mix of competition and cooperation.

None of those great things can work well in darkness, manipulated by cheaters.

Stand up. Know what the enemy can do. And deny them the power.

-----