A notion has spread --
foisted not just by cable news, but all media -- that the recent U.S. mid-term
elections manifested some kind of tidal surge favoring Republican Party policies.
Alas, the most disturbing thing about that meme is how pathetically easy it is
to refute.
1) Democrats
in 2014 had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. Mostly, the GOP reclaimed a number of naturally-red
seats that had swung out of their grasp in a wave of revulsion toward the Bush
era, amid Barack Obama’s first landslide. Here's your GOP "wave" - Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina. (In fact, the dems held on to Virginia, boding poorly for the GOP. See below)
Nothing makes more clear the dismal
state of journalism than its inability to show this on a map.

Things
will be different in 2016, when Republicans will defend 24 Senate seats, of
which18 are likely to be competitive based on geography and demographics. Democrats will be in
peril of losing just one seat that could be competitive. And it could get worse
for the GOP. There is chatter about potential Republican retirements in Arizona
and Iowa. If either John McCain or Chuck Grassley decided to call it a career,
each of those races would be major Democratic targets.
Further, says Chris Ladd,
one of the few openly Republican commentators to lift his head and reject the
connivers who’ve hijacked his party:
“Almost half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes from the former Confederacy.” Illustrating my point that this is no longer about “parties or “left-vs-right” anymore. It is a re-ignited phase of the American Civil War.
“Almost half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes from the former Confederacy.” Illustrating my point that this is no longer about “parties or “left-vs-right” anymore. It is a re-ignited phase of the American Civil War.
2) Moreover, this election was just about the worst in U.S. history, for voter involvement. In 43 states, less than half the eligible population bothered to
vote, and no state broke 60 percent. A first to be proud of.
As Chris Ladd put it: “Republicans in 2014 were the most
popular girl at a party no one attended.” Why? “Vote suppression is working
remarkably well, but that won’t last. Eventually, Democrats will help people get
the documentation they need."
(Elsewhere I describe how failure to provide compliance assistance is the smoking
gun, proving that voter ID laws had only one intent, all along.)
Indeed,
some factors that depress turnout during midterms have the opposite effect in
presidential years. For example, good feelings. A sense that things are
improving. Take the steadily improving US economy. U.S. consumer spending rebounded last month, but
confidence among consumers is surging
at a faster pace.
Deficits are declining steeply, as always happens in Democratic administrations. Throw in lower gas prices, engendered partly by U.S. shale but equally – say experts – by the 2009 CAFÉ increases in car mileage standards that sent fuel efficiency rocketing skyward, saving consumers billions… and which the GOP has sworn to repeal.
Deficits are declining steeply, as always happens in Democratic administrations. Throw in lower gas prices, engendered partly by U.S. shale but equally – say experts – by the 2009 CAFÉ increases in car mileage standards that sent fuel efficiency rocketing skyward, saving consumers billions… and which the GOP has sworn to repeal.
Midterms
tend to say “relax” to folks who see times improving. But presidential
elections bring such voters out, in force.
(Regarding
budget deficits, any US citizen who sincerely cares about fiscal responsibility
would have to be crazy ever to go anywhere near the GOP, ever again. The second derivative rate of rate of change of debt is always negative under democrats
and always positive under republicans. Period. Always. A grownup faces facts that veer from expectation – and adapts. See: Do Outcomes Matter More than Rhetoric?)
3) Policy-wise, voter decisions were very
different than this purported “landslide” would have you believe. For example:
- Every
major Democratic ballot initiative was successful, including every minimum wage
increase, even in the red states.
- Every “personhood amendment” failed.
-
Libertarian minded voters are starting to take note that the archaic-insane
Drug War is being deregulated away only
in Blue States. Hence, the current libertarian cant (fostered at great expense
by the Koch Brothers and Steve Forbes) that “Republicans
are less anti-freedom than statist democrats” is starting to shred.

- But the
biggest reason to doubt that this election reflected preference for GOP
policies is simple. What policies?
Other than the Keystone Pipeline, there are no positive things on their agenda, only negatives -- explaining why this U.S. House of Representatives has been the laziest in the history of the republic. (See below.) And sure, Fox uses negative motivation effectively. But it has driven away people who want to move ahead. (Also below, see stats on US scientists.)
Other than the Keystone Pipeline, there are no positive things on their agenda, only negatives -- explaining why this U.S. House of Representatives has been the laziest in the history of the republic. (See below.) And sure, Fox uses negative motivation effectively. But it has driven away people who want to move ahead. (Also below, see stats on US scientists.)
5) The hypocrisy of those who now proclaim a “mandate” from the
American people, based on a margin of 3% in actual votes, in the
lowest-attended national election ever… after they shrugged off two landslide elections of Barack Obama as
“meaningless,” is stunning proof of selective insanity.
6) All of the voting machine manufacturers are now owned by radical republican factotums, some of them with criminal records. This
does not matter much in most blue states, where laws require that the process
include a paper receipt that the voter can peruse and verify herself, and that
can be hand-counted in random audits of precincts. This means any large scale reprogramming of
the voting machine results will eventually send the machine makers to prison.
In red states, there are
often no such laws. No one knows how to audit the machines’ output and that is
just fine by the party running those states. In other words, many tens of
thousands of votes may be electronically altered without repercussions. No
single fact more clearly portrays the fundamental difference in basic
citizenship, between the Olde Confederacy and its blue opponents, in our
ongoing struggle over American destiny.
7) As for
future GOP prospects? They are very dim in any election wherein
women, minorities or the young actually vote. The map of “safe” states for a
democratic presidential candidate is spectacularly good. Mr. Ladd again:
“…at the outset of any Presidential campaign,
a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral
votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of the 270 needed to win.”
If one
includes Virginia… and Ladd argues one should… then the total number of “safe”
democratic presidential electors is 270, all that’s needed to win.
== So what will the GOP Congress
actually do? ==
Almost
certainly nothing. Or nearly so. Again, to be clear, under Speaker John Boehner
the United States House of Representatives became the laziest, least productive and most corrupt in the history of theRepublic, with fewer bills passed or even introduced, fewer hearings held
or subpoenas issued, and fewer days in session, than any Congress since
congresses began. Oh, but the most
days spent away from the Hill, raising mountains of money.
Sure, the
pace of legislative deliberation may pick up, now that the GOP controls the
Senate. One can hope. Take this headline. “Mitch McConnell's Mission: Making The Senate Work Again.”
We’ve seen a week of hype that Senator McConnell sincerely wants to get down to
business! Or this from The Washington Post: “Republican leaders, too, are
inclined to clear the legislative decks of must-pass bills so they can start
fresh in January, when they will have control of both chambers of
Congress for the first time in eight years.”
But given
six years of filibustering obstructionism and laziness, one can be excused some
cynicism. Recall that the GOP controlled Congress for TWELVE years, from 1995
to 2007 and for the last six of those, they controlled every branch and lever of the US government, from presidency to
courts to Congress and so on.
What did they do with that perfect and complete lock on power? Did they take control of our borders? Solve the "entitlements crisis?" Balance budgets? Deregulate reviled agencies? Offer a plan for health care reform? Can you recall anything they actually did, during those years? Other than deregulate banks and Wall Street?
No. If liberals are the manic side of our national bipolar disease, conservatives are the depressive side. In an era when we need agility while charging into an uncertain future, their reflex is to growl: “No! Let’s do nothing. And get off my lawn.”
What did they do with that perfect and complete lock on power? Did they take control of our borders? Solve the "entitlements crisis?" Balance budgets? Deregulate reviled agencies? Offer a plan for health care reform? Can you recall anything they actually did, during those years? Other than deregulate banks and Wall Street?
No. If liberals are the manic side of our national bipolar disease, conservatives are the depressive side. In an era when we need agility while charging into an uncertain future, their reflex is to growl: “No! Let’s do nothing. And get off my lawn.”
(Also on
this topic, but detailed: Election 2014: Getting to No – And Staying There: After so many years of the GOP holding the government hostage, what happens when the party whose job is stopping change takes control?)
== But 'NO" is a magic word ==
Take the
accompanying graphic… it is obsolete. By now a vast majority of blockages – across all of US history - have targeted
this administration alone, depriving the American people of a functioning
government. But to the GOP's owners that is a feature!
The deliberate destruction of politics as a pragmatic system for negotiating solutions to problems has been the great achievement of the Koch-Murdoch-Saudi axis. Earlier phases of the confederacy never accomplished such a thing. But this version has an openly stated goal that “government of the people, by the people, for the people SHALL perish from the Earth.”
The deliberate destruction of politics as a pragmatic system for negotiating solutions to problems has been the great achievement of the Koch-Murdoch-Saudi axis. Earlier phases of the confederacy never accomplished such a thing. But this version has an openly stated goal that “government of the people, by the people, for the people SHALL perish from the Earth.”
Is all of this about to
change? On the one hand, McConnell and his colleagues know the math for 2016. They
can see they need to craft a better image or else go extinct. Perhaps there
will be a few White House lunch meetings and one or two mentions of compromise.

Indeed,
few issues did more to divide the Senate over the past several years than the vetting of Mr. Obama’s judicial and executive-branch nominees.
And now note: Supreme
Court Justice Ruth
Joan Bader Ginsburg is 81 years old. You can be certain
of a firestorm, when Obama appoints her replacement. (She of course should have
retired a year ago.)
No, the
turtle does not change his scales.
== A Genuine paladin for reviving a sane GOP ==
I’ve mentioned before that
there are glimmers, here and there, of what America must do, in order to end
this deliberately re-ignited phase of our self-destructive Civil War.
What is needed is for fifty million “ostrich republicans” – basically sane, pro-science, and pro-markets, but right now burying their heads in utter denial, staring at Sean Hannity and pleading with him to keep them hypnotized – what’s needed is for fifty million of them to finally wake up. To see and admit and get angry over the fact that their movement has been hijacked by (at best) crazies and (at-worst) outright traitors.
What is needed is for fifty million “ostrich republicans” – basically sane, pro-science, and pro-markets, but right now burying their heads in utter denial, staring at Sean Hannity and pleading with him to keep them hypnotized – what’s needed is for fifty million of them to finally wake up. To see and admit and get angry over the fact that their movement has been hijacked by (at best) crazies and (at-worst) outright traitors.
What will
it take for ostriches to take notice and rebel, to save their movement? To return it to being about competitive enterprise, community empowerment and Adam Smith?
Signs of sharp divergence from those things have been visible for years. For example, the American right, which used to admire knowledge and expertise, is now in full tilt war against science. (See The Republican War on Science, by Chris Mooney.) Thirty years ago, 40% of U.S. scientists called themselves Republican, now it is 5%. They are voting with their feet, the smartest, wisest, most logical and by far the most competitive humans our species ever produced.
Signs of sharp divergence from those things have been visible for years. For example, the American right, which used to admire knowledge and expertise, is now in full tilt war against science. (See The Republican War on Science, by Chris Mooney.) Thirty years ago, 40% of U.S. scientists called themselves Republican, now it is 5%. They are voting with their feet, the smartest, wisest, most logical and by far the most competitive humans our species ever produced.
And not
just science! Can you name for me one profession of high knowledge and skill that
is not under attack by Fox and its cohorts?
Teachers, medical doctors, journalists, civil servants, law
professionals, economists, skilled labor, professors… oh, yes and science.
Should this brain drain matter?

Is anyone out there trying
to ease the pain of Barry Goldwater’s ghost, or to stop the spinning in William
F. Buckley’s grave?
George Will – almost by his witty self -- could have done this thing and helped to save the country, if he weren’t a rationalizing coward. There are glimmers of an uprising over on the pages of The American Conservative… but that rebellion and re-evaluation is tepid, glacial, timid.
George Will – almost by his witty self -- could have done this thing and helped to save the country, if he weren’t a rationalizing coward. There are glimmers of an uprising over on the pages of The American Conservative… but that rebellion and re-evaluation is tepid, glacial, timid.
Still, one seeks hope. Indeed, at last, we may have found a hero who has the intellect and courage
to condemn the Koch-Murdoch-Ailes-Saudi hijacking of U.S. Conservatism. I quoted from Mr. Chris Ladd, above. I know
very little about the fellow, but his postings show that he is no shill for the
statist left. His opposition to the Murdochian madness is based on a wish for
the United States to have a party
dedicated to enterprise and finding competitive, non-state solutions to real problems, in
a flat-open-fair marketplace of products, services and ideas…
…as Adam Smith prescribed -- and as every generation of Americans has had to redefine and refresh. It is not
leftism that today’s oligarch-owned GOP opposes, but the very principles and
practical miracles that it is supposed to defend. Which is why conservatism today never
mentions Adam Smith.
I hope Mr. Ladd gets some
scrutiny and attention. It will be
interesting to see if his “GOPlifer” column maintains quality and gains
traction.
== Continue to Part II
== Continue to Part II