Look at impeachment as chess... not a sumo match!

You - yes you - are foolish to demand that we deal with the oligarch-mafia-confederate treason with spasm trench warfare. Charging ahead with full-frontal assaults.

We need generals in this civil war who can play chess and look many moves ahead, gaming out what the enemy might try to do. You can bet that Romney and Ryan and Republican Party elders — overlapping to an unknown degree with the puppet masters Murdoch, Putin, Mercer & MBS etc. — are mapping out a path that can:

1 - cancel out Trump’s biggest liability from their view — that of narrowing GOP constituencies, driving off all professions and educated people, ethnicities and many formerly republican women, crushing their coalition down to a rabid, confederate  base… **(See late news below)

(Of course, desideratum #1 means somehow eliminating Trump himself, since he will not modify or compromise. See below.)…

2- …while somehow not enraging that base against the GOP establishment for ‘betraying” Trump…

3- …while enraging that base instead against lib’ruls…

4- …while raising up new GOP leaders with credibility…

5- …while protecting establishment oligarchs and the pyramid of blackmailed servants…

6- …while protecting the cheating methods that are their only hook into power.

It’s a difficult path to thread, especially since the Party Elders and the Puppet Masters probably part company over the following:

7- the rise of would-be theocrats (e.g. Pence and dominionists) who would continue the narrowing while possibly setting in motion a deliberate (and literal) end of the world…

8- unleashing disruptive waves of violent McVeighs., tearing America apart.

What I desperately fear is the one path that would touch all of these bases at the same time. That path is *martyrdom.* A martyred Trump is the way to accomplish all of them. 

== Martyrdom Scenarios ==

I have long been on-record pointing this out, horrified that no one else has even mentioned it. But I ask you to put all of this together:

A. God bless the United States Secret Service. I mean that and I wish Donald Trump health. But if they fail and the pupeteers do eliminate their liability, then we all need to react tactically, not emotionally! 

It will be counterproductive if you celebrate, encouraging the meme that “lib’ruls did it to our hero!” 

Vastly better ? Express rage and suspicion toward those who would benefit most  from such a martyrdom— the Ryan-Romney-Putin-and especially Fox interests. Indeed, what could be a better judo move than to express compassionate pity for a Donald who was blatantly mentally ill? (See this elaborated -- with wry humor -- below.)

B. The other kind of martyrdom is more likely, of course — with those judo-master GOP manipulators giggling as they back pedal and let democrats clean up their mess for them. Because that’s what hurried impeachment could be, unless done right… getting rid of their problem for them, while feeding Red America’s paranoias by appearing like a partisan lynch mob. Yes, the impeachment martyrdom would leave a living Trump out there screeching at rallies. So they’ll map it out with special attention to #2 and #3.

C. Most likely of all — a rush to impeachment leads to Moscow Mitch McConnell chortling with glee and getting the GOP Senate to reject the House’s charges, then declare: “All you dems wanted was to get even for the Clinton Impeachment." Allowing that comparison -- a silly ass pursuit of a wayward husband fibbing about some 3rd-base infidelity vs. Trump's weekly felonies and treason -- to stand will give Fox a chance to portray Trump as a martyr, while keeping him and his rally mob party loyal.

Nancy Pelosi is absolutely right (!!) that a race to *rapid* impeachment is stupid. Profoundly stupid! It presents Romney/Ryan + Putin with a rash gift that would feed chess moves #1-8 while failing to deliver any satisfaction. If hurried, it will give them every thing on that list. (And yes, one “chess” gambit they might pull is to let 18 GOP senators who have 4 more years on their terms, swing to conviction and removal, in order to clear decks for Ryan/Romney, counting on time to overcome DT’s fulminating rallies.)

Pelosi is right. Stretch it out! If done right, and timed right, impeachment *can* corner the GOP into a lose-lose. Think! Use “impeachment hearings” to overcome the Roberts Doctrine and regain full subpoena power. Then go after the money-laundering for Russian mobs. Demolish Trump’s reputations as a businessman, as a judge of character, and above all as a “strong man.” (George Lakoff makes clear that his appearance of blustery strength is THE core-psychic root of his redder support.) Chopping away at all of that, across the 2020 campaign, would either lead to an effective impeachment or else corner all Republican senators into an impossible and hopeless position.

I cannot comprehend why some dem leader hasn’t taken the pity tactic, which would infuriate Trump vastly more than the chest-to-chest sumo shoving and shouting we currently see. Any liberal leader who started publicly pitying Two Scoops, speaking v-e-r-y slowly toward this addled dimwit, would win instant cred and become the central focus of Trumpian tweet hate. 

It would chop hard against his blustering "strong man" image.

Moreover, the pity-meme could help us plenty, if the GOP masters go for either kind of martyrdom! “You threw that poor imbecile into a complex world for which he was ill-equipped, just because he’s good at riling up rallies of other imbeciles. And when it all finally overwhelmed him, turning him into a drooling-jibbering liability, YOU threw him under the bus. You monsters, we’re on to what you did to us, and to that pitiable moron!”

== Stop insisting on full-speed-ahead. Instead... maneuver! ==

Again and again, I repeat: Trump is infuriating, but his White House leaks! He is cauterized! The civil servants and defense pros are alerted! Things… could… be… much… worse!  

A Pence White House will be staffed with tightly disciplined dominionists and utterly leakproof. He would smoothly call for comity and calm and negotiation — an utter lie that we have fallen for many times. He will soothe back into line hundreds of thousands of civil servants and officers who’ll sigh with premature relief that the Trump Nightmare is over...

... when in fact the new president will be a much-worse maniac! One who prays daily for an end to all freedom, ambition, curiosity and children and an end to the world and an absolute destruction of the United States of America. And I mean that literally is what he prays for, daily.

No, no, I am not in a rush to remove the cauterized and 80% neutralized Donald Two Scoops, before the timing is right. And it is only right if it helps crush the GOP in the 2020 election! If nothing else, have impeachment on the docket when the NEW Senate takes over, some weeks before the 2021 inauguration. That new Senate -- ordering Trump dragged out of the White House in shame and banned from the Capitol steps -- is a fantasy we might, if we work hard, manage to see.

 == Addendum ==

FINAL scenario.  As one of you pointed out, the gopper secret masters might jettison both Trump and Pence, allowing Pelosi(!) to become president, as a tactical move saddling her with (1) Trump’s martyrdom, (2) presumption that was her ambition all along, and (3) blame for the sudden recession and (4) incumbency during a rejection-election. 

Problems with this scenario. Pelosi would unlock every filing cabinet and every Putin scheme gets uncovered and the election cheating gets harder.  Ryan might go for it. Not Murdoch or Putin.


** Late New Saturday: Former House Speaker Paul Ryan reportedly wants to use his position on Fox's board to 'do something' about Trump

Looking up and out

Last month, Cheryl and I and our daughter I had dinner with Rusty Schweickart, at the San Diego Air and Space Museum, at a gala celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Apollo 9 mission that tested every technology needed for the first lunar landing, just four months later. (David Scott and Jim McDivitt had their own entourages at other tables. Only two Apollo missions still have all three members alive and these guys are as sharp as lasers.) Rusty was the "token liberal" on that mission, who became advisor to California governor Jerry Brown, along with Stewart Brand and other techno-hippies... who have always favored step-by-step advances in both sustainables and cautious nuclear power.

Many thanks to the folks at the B612 Foundation (which strives to develop ways to defend us all from killer asteroids) for hosting Rusty’s table at this way-fun event, and special thanks to our B612 hostess Hillary Aiken.

And the White House proposes cutting NASA's budget by half a billion dollars while diverting remaining resources to a copycat/useless stunt on the Moon (see below). Please pledge support for The Planetary Society's support for space exploration.

== Danger! Danger from above! ==

Detected by a US satellite, a space rock exploded with 10 times the energy released by the Hiroshima atomic bomb - 40% the energy release of Chelyabinsk - over the Bering Sea, off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. A  fireball this big is only expected about two or three times every century. To help us understand and deal with possible dangers from above, join the B612 Foundation! (Wait, wasn't Tunguska nearby? Who is pot-shotting Russia?)

An extreme form of solar storm, known as a solar proton event (SPE), struck our planet 2,679 years ago — 660 BCE — according to new research published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. If an event of such magnitude were to strike head-on today, it would likely wreak havoc on our technological infrastructure, including communications and navigation.

It’s now the third massive SPE known to scientists, with others occurring 1,245 and 1,025 years ago. This latest discovery means solar storms of this variety are likely hitting Earth's bullseye more frequently than we thought—perhaps once every 1,000 years—but more data is required to create more reliable estimates.

In fact we know the Sun spews such things much more often than that, because they nearly all miss Earth! But a couple that missed us have taken out space probes. It’s simply inexcusable that we haven’t been spending reasonable R&D on EMP protection for 70 years. Alas, the Putinist-Trumpists want to slash R&D of all kinds. The last thing Vlad wants is for us to be EMP resistant.

Oh, BTW, 660BCE does correlate pretty well with the dawn of the new classical era, especially in Greece, so maybe the mutation rate…

A magnetar comes back to life! If it happens to a much closer neutron star, aimed just right…

But the biggest likely threat is our own sun, as we stifle our planet in a cozy greenhouse blanket that prevents Earth losing heat as fast as it comes in.

== We choose to go to the moon... because... ==

“Vice President Pence Gives NASA Five Years to Put Americans Back on the Moon—or Else.” If any of you think you can defend this terrible thing, at any level and in any way, from its justifications to feasibility to blatant political motivation, all the way to the harm it intends, devastating any possibility of US breakaway leadership in space... please. Knock yourself out. Come defend this drivel below, in comments. 

It is unalloyedly indefensible and one more in a long list of depredations of our future.

Dig it again: HUMANITY is going back to the dusty, useless lunar surface, because it’s a close, easy sandbox for kindergarteners to learn to walk. To strut around and declare: “Today I am a man!” There are almost no resources down that gravity well and no wealth or near term benefits. But sure, I might be wrong! So let the Chinese, Russians, Indians, Euros, billionaire tourists and other Apollo wannabes romp around “exploring” down there. "Happy bar moonsvah!” Let us know if you find anything surprising or valuable and we grownups will drop in for a look.

Meanwhile, there are much harder things for the U.S. and Japanese to do out there. Vast wealth and huge accomplishments that only we can do. Because they are vastly more worthwhile. And because they are hard.

== A better idea, at last? ==

Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin rocket company has studied repurposing upper stages of its future New Glenn launch vehicle to serve as habitats or for other applications. Decades ago I led a similar study at the California Space Institute, exploring ways to utilize the Space Shuttle’s capacious External Tanks (ET) in orbit. We configured a strawman design that - with just three shuttle launches - could have produced a station with vastly more usable volume than the current ISS.  Yes, with just three launches, and more capable, too.

At the time, NASA officials had an allergic aversion to even discussing possible ET use, so we kept dive bombing them (at net-energy cost) into the Indian Ocean. The only practical outcome of our studies became my short story “Tank Fam Dynamo” about not only a vast station using ETs, but also electrodynamic tethers and brewing beer in space!

The story is available (ironically?) on Amazon Kindle. … and in my collection The River of Time.

== Short takes ==

Agh! XKCD on spaceships vs airplanes.

This recent webcomic from XKCD: Light Pollution and the Disappearing Night Sky appears to reference my (Hugo winning) short story The Crystal Spheres, published 35 years ago, from my anthology The River of Time.

Another reference in the choice of terminology for this end state of the sun in the far future, reminiscent (perhaps slyly?) of The Crystal Spheres?

Register for the Future In Review conference, returning to California, October 8-11, 2019, at The Lodge at Torrey Pines in La Jolla. 2019 speakers and moderators include: 

George Church, Professor of Genetics, Harvard Medical School; and Director, Personal Genomics

Kim Stanley Robinson, Hugo-winning Author of Science Fiction

George Dyson, Technology Historian & Nonfiction Author

Larry Smarr, Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2) and Harry Gruber Professor of Engineering, UCSD

Don Norman, Author and Founder, The Design Lab, Calit2

Ed Butler, Senior Correspondent, BBC

David Brin, Founder, Futures Unlimited; and Sci-fi Author and Physicist