Apocalyptic fears: coronavirus, economics... and could he nuke the world?

As the coronavirus roils world markets and rattles our sci-fi nerves with dire possibilities, it does make sense to look at the death rates from this ailment... at least the rates that have been released by the PRC masters.  So far, they appear to be flu-like, not anywhere near plague or movie-pandemic levels. Indeed, it is only because of advanced science that we know it is not just another somewhat harsh flu.

 Indeed, it is not the reported lethality rate but the rapidity that it went to rapid human-to-human transmission that both perplexes and worries me. That plus the potential economic and other side effects. We'll get to some economic factors down below.

Meanwhile, as the Red Senate serves up a Red Ending to the impeachment saga, we all know this was not the final shoe to drop. What will be next? The Epstein Files that he was killed to conceal? The contents of David Pecker's safe? Som brave Putin defector with the KGB's grand file of blackmailed Western politicians? Or the Deutsche Bank money laundering story, already in so many hands that you've got to wonder on the shared reasons and timing for this delay?

In Polemical Judo I have a chapter on "Exit Strategies" that predicted much of what we've seen and forecasts other chess moves. Shouldn't it have been reviewed, even once, by now? 

== Could he nuke the world? ==

Nathan Gardels, editor of the World Post, offers an excellent missive and warning about what Donald Trump is legally capable of doing, were he to enter a Final Meltdown. “That’s the issue raised by Joe Cirincione, who recalls that during the Watergate investigation leading to Richard Nixon’s impeachment some 45 years ago, the increasingly erratic president told visiting lawmakers: “I can go into my office and pick up the telephone and in 25 minutes, 70 million people will be dead.” And, indeed, Nixon did to go Defcon 3, the highest alert status since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

“As Cirincione points out, whatever you might think of then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Defense Secretary James Schlesinger, their steady heads provided much-needed restraint as Nixon descended into a bout of drink and depression that only fortified his instinct to strike out. Today, the ranks of the responsible have been decimated by successive purges. Little stands between the Donald and the bomb.”

Before you enter full-tilt depression, preparing for the apocalyptic world shared by The Postman and Death-Stranding, do consider some real factors protecting us from a Trumpian spasm-war.

1) Part of the arms control treaties of the 90s required taking pre-loaded targeting out of a majority of our missiles. Yes, it would take only minutes to re-load target programs. But commanding our forces to do so would be complicated without full cooperation from command officers and probably beyond Donald Trump’s intellectual capacity.

If he did order such re-targetings, that leaked fact might get him “25th.” (See the chapter on "The 25th Amendment" in my book.)

2) Of course most of our missiles that do have targets are aimed at sites within Russia. Is it likely Putin would allow such a command? Two Scoops would have to truly be out-of-control.

3) Lacking a Kissinger or Schlesinger, we have an amazing corps of senior officers who are among the smartest, most responsible and best-educated humans in our species history. They (and senior civil servants) have been the most vexing obstacles confronting the Putinist putsch. You can be sure that if Republicans regain obligate power, they will keep their open promise to gut all institutional protections for those mature castes.

4) In Polemical Judo I discuss a small provision that Congress could slip into almost any bill, appointing national sages… former presidents, retired justices etc. to serve on the “other body” described in the 25th Amendment. That body would make an ideal council for senior officers to alert, on almost instant notice in the event of such a melt-down. Even without VP cooperation, there’s a lot they could do, to slow things down.

The original Cirincione article from The Washington Post.

== The Great Experiment ==

Some of you asked about my apocalyptic failure nightmare for our Great Experiment. Is it one filled with tech-savvy refugees, hunting down every Fox-Putin-mafiosi to their Patagonian and sub-sea and Kiwi hideaways? (The fact-castes now persecuted by ignoramus oligarchs will do that, if put against the edge.)

No it is the much subtler conversion that Orson Scott Card pushes in every novel, but especially EMPIRE, modeled after the end of the Roman Republic, in which an American Caesar (a typical Cardian superman) manipulates us into ending our absurd "experiment" in mass rights, elections, democracy, reciprocal accountability and other Periclean nonsense, handing all power instead to the deserving and great-souled emperor.  And if that can't be O.S. Card, then let it be his hero, the opposite-to-Jesus-in-every-way Donald Trump.

That we have let this malignant propagandist push his America-undermining ethos through every Junior High School in America is a sad commentary on the intellect of our educational establishment and (ironically) evidence that he may have a point.

Those defending our Great Experiment include humans of stunning quality. This short article about Dwight Eisenhower shows how George Marshall and FDR depended on him and saw his qualities… and how we need Republicans like him, again.

But of course the towering figure in all this is Marshall, whose portrait hangs not just in the State Department today, and the Pentagon, but a dozen other places where folks in-the-know realize who showed the American Pax how to be the greatest time in human history. Here’s my essay about asking TIME to name him Person of the 20th Century.

== Political Roundup ==

What general line of work provides more donors (names confidential) to various candidates? Prepare to be amazed. Soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines have donated a total of $185,625 to Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign. By comparison, they have given $113,012 to Trump, $80,250 to Pete Buttigieg, $64,604 to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and a relatively paltry $33,045 to former Vice President Joe Biden. 

 Interesting followup: "Most of the people who have donated to former Vice President Biden’s campaign work at a law firm or a bank. Ten of the 20 employers on Sen. Warren’s list are elite universities. Buttigieg, a former naval intelligence officer, has received more from State Department employees than any other contender, and is the preferred candidate of those employed by agencies classified only as “U.S. Government.”" All of this is grist for consideration and in my opinion actually boosts Pete, since those are the folks who can best see what's going on.

Still, remember this. The one last chance of Putin/Murdoch/MBS and the other puppetmasters is for our blue-Union coalition to get broken up by angry "splitters." If we schism, we are toast and so is the future.

You - yes, you - must find a way to quench that sanctimonious treason-to-reason whenever it comes up. Ask your enraged splitter if she or he can answer even one of these five Challenges to Splitters. Even one. We'll win this together.

 == More items ==

Political roundup: N. Carolina Republicans are trying to see how little reform - from their gerrymander cheats and crimes - they can get away with.

Meanwhile, the professionals in the Justice Department appear to be in almost-full rebellion against Wm. Barr and their appointed politician masters. There is no more important issue in the US 2020 election than the Civil Service, which the GOP will attack with hammers and tongs and volcanic fury, if they retain power.

The Digital Intelligence Lab at Institute for the Future  (IFTF) analyzed discussion on Twitter surrounding both the October and September Democratic debates. The results are surprising and a must-read for anyone who wants to help defend democracy from coordinated, sophisticated disinformation attacks.

== Economics today ==

Insiders sell stock during buyback programs, making profits when prices jump. It’s legal.” It didn’t used to be. Our parents in the Greatest (FDR) Generation banned this and dozens of other oligarchy cheats that became the very soul and purpose of the Republican Party. Moreover, these stock buybacks were instead of the investment in R&D and capital productive capacity that Goppers promised with every “Supply Side” tax gift to the rich. 

The first wave of Supply Side "reforms" at least had a plausible-sounding argument behind them... that proved absolutely and diametrically opposite to all resulting outcomes. All subsequent ones were knowing and deliberate lies.

Air travel shows what happens when we give companies ruinous power over us.” True?

Sorry, wrong target. The real enemy is public subsidies of charter and corporate jet travel, letting the rich and mighty bypass our deteriorating airports and airlines. Would we suffer so, if elites had to share our misery? They should be – (with torches yet, but I’ll settle for taxes) – chased out of those private terminals, back into First Class where they belong!  

A devastating article reveals how Boeing went from being one of the greatest engineering companies of all time to one driven into the ground by MBAs. One proposal I've long made - only half tongue in cheek -- is to ship 2/3 of our MBAs to developing nations. Our third would learn quickly to focus on product. Half of those sent over there would help develop real enterprises. And the remainder would make good farm labor. A version - naturally - of the GolgaFrincham B-Ark.

== So much for Supply Side 'stimulating' enterprise ==

Entrepreneurship is still allive in the hated California and coast. But for the most part it has gone DOWN with every so-called Supply Side "reform," as wealth disparities skyrocket and we head toward French Revolution levels of injustice. How'd that one go, by the way?

Finally, I have touted the wisdom in some old movies. Like the very end of BLAST FROM THE PAST. Now I recommend you watch an old 1954 film, Executive Suite with Barbara Stanwyck and William Holden. They knew these tricks very well, then.

Predicting the Korea "deal." Kim gets everything he wants.

Alas, the news just won't leave us be. Especially after our alliances were demolished at the G-7 summit... and we're about to be betrayed at the Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore.

And hence, I will do the adult thing and couch my predictions as a wager. A bet. I have a reputation for foresight. But I never say what will happen.  But I reckon the following scenario has better than two-to-one odds. (At the end of this piece, see some alternatives with lesser-odds.)


== It's the Conventional Forces, Stupid ==

Let's start by questioning an assumption shared across the political spectrum, that the central issue is Kim Jong Un's access to nuclear weaponry. Oh, sure, that's important, but it is also a potemkin issue, a mask for deeper purposes.

First, despite achieving H-bombs and ICBMs at remarkable -- even implausible -- speeds, Kim's danger to the U.S. remains far from imminent. He knows that any attempt to harm others with those bombs would be personal suicide for him. And he already had the capability, with thousands of dug-in artillery tubes, to flatten Seoul in a matter of minutes. Nevertheless:

If Kim Jong Un verifiably surrenders all his nukes, I will eat a bug.

Sure, there will be superficial concessions: a supervised elimination of nuclear R&D, along with demolition of nuclear production and testing sites. Big deal. These are no longer needed by the NK regime. Indeed, it is my private belief that they were always just for show; he got his nukes elsewhere. In any event, none of those concessions matter. Those facilities are now expenses he'd rather eliminate from his ledger.

Knowing that he holds all the cards, Kim will demand and get a residuum of perhaps five or six nuclear weapons... as a "deterrent."  He will also insist on guarantees against any attempted regime change, plus an end to sanctions, plus a massive aid package and -- above all -- a draw-down of conventional arms and armies on both sides.

Who could object to that, you ask? Isn't peace the direction we want to go?
Oh, but do try to see things as the professionals in our studious, thoughtful, but maligned "deep state" services and agencies already do. Especially this simple fact:

Conventional armed forces are incredibly expensive. 

The biggest threat to the Pyongyang leadership caste is their vast, bulky, and expensive conventional army. Not only is it bankrupting the nation, but at any moment, an uprising at one base could rapidly spread, turning Kim's military into an instant, deadly danger to the regime. While others point to historical examples like Libya and Iraq, the best parallel is the brutal Romanian-communist dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu, who was overthrown in an almost instantaneous popular revolt, spearheaded by countless junior officers.

For reasons of both economic and personal survival, Kim desperately needs a smaller army.

In contrast, nuclear weapons - once you have them - are cheap to hold, to hide and to maintain.

Kim's current dilemma has only one solution, then. Keep enough nukes to deter any adventurous notions  on our side... and hold onto those artillery tubes threatening Seoul... then entice both South Koreans and Americans to shout hosannahs over a "deal" to slash their own forces below the DMZ. Forces they can easily afford and that pose them zero risk.

Let's be clear: any conventional draw-down is Kim's chief aim, his win-win.

But oh, why not also get the South and the U.S. to pay for it all, ending sanctions and with massive aid, welcoming Kim to the club of international leaders? Add more wins.

Look, I'm no war-monger. Elsewhere I've railed against what seems to be powerful momentum toward a U.S.-Iran conflict that can only have one possible outcome. (We would lose.) Hence, I do not oppose genuine deal-making that could lead to actual peace on the Korean peninsula.

On the other hand, we need to learn from the author of "The Art of the Deal." Especially when Donald Trump is clearly falling -- either emotionally or deliberately -- for every sucker-trap that he described in that prophetic book. Desperate to save his presidency he cares only about symbolism.

Sure, it's a shout into the wind, as Nobel-level praise will foam across all ends of the political spectrum. But the "deal" that appears to be taking shape is one that benefits a mad and brutal dictator at every level. It is one in which we lose-lose-lose.

== Addendum: lesser odds ==

It is possible that Donald Trump will do something else. He might look Kim in the eye, then swivel and leave.

Think about it.  What else could add to his cred so simply? Implying that he truly is a savvy "gut" genius?

It would throw all critics off balance, and that would serve the purposes of Beijing and Moscow, too.  

Lesser odds. One in five, I'd say.  But again, theater, not substance. The real enemy is every professional and "deep state" smartypants. They - and we - lose-lose-lose.

Santa frets about melting North Pole! Call N. Korea “Chinese”! Plus who is anti-science?

* All right, it’s a simple though not-so-cheery meme. But it mixes warm and fuzzy mythology with deep-important truth. Poor Santa Claus is in trouble!  Tell every child you know that the U.S. Navy is in full tilt preparation for an “ice-free arctic.” Our admirals don’t think there’s the slightest “controversy” over human generated climate change. The Navy’s Arctic Roadmap states, "the current scientific consensus indicates the Arctic may experience nearly ice-free summers sometime in the 2030s." Yes Virginia, that includes the North Pole. The Navy knows what’s coming and they are hard at work getting ready... as are the Russians.

So, why tell children? Especially around Yuletide? Because maybe fear for Santa Claus might help them get through to knucklehead parents, who clutch beliefs that are far, far more mythological than jolly old gift-giving elves.
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== Taxes? My Oncle lives in Dollars, Taxes! ==

* My in-depth exploration of reasons to enact a “transaction tax” on hyper-fast Wall street predatory computerized trading is now permanently posted online.  See why a teensy 0.1% fee might save us from Terminator!


* As for the current hoo-row over taxes, in general? Who'd have thunk that the best investigative journalism in America would be at Rolling Stone and Vanity Fair? Seriously, read this cogent and informative article. Sure, the author has a political axe to grind.  But most of the people he quotes are conservatives and republicans, many of whom served Ronald Reagan! And the facts speak for themselves.


Aw, heck. Ask your uncle who is steamed about taxes whether he thinks they are at a historical high, since 1935... or low?  Ask whether he thinks the federal share of our nation’s GDP is low?  Or high?  And if rates are their lowest in 80 years, then why is his top priority to shrink them even further - only for the rich?

== What to do about the “Hermit Kingdom”? ==

* All right, speaking of elves... or rather, nasty dwarves... the passing of leadership in North Korea to the latest Amazing Kim is provoking endless ruminations amid the pundit caste and blogosphere.  But seriously, what’s your solution? The Hermit Kingdom tipped over, long ago, into jibbering kakocracy. Nuclear armed, with tens of thousands of hidden artillery tubes aimed at Seoul, its ruling caste lives by extortion, telling its people that the bags of rice they get, with American flags on them, are “tribute from Yankees who are terrified of the Dear Leader.
 
Compare North Korea, as viewed from space, to any other nation on Earth. (It's dark as a cave.) Visitors to North Korea attest that the average young person, who is not a member of the officer caste, is two to five inches shorter than their southern cousins.  What to do about this intractable horror story?  I have a suggestion... it is obvious and yet no one but this opinionated, undiplomatic contrarian will ever mention it... for reasons that are also obvious.

 Declare that we consider North Korea to be the 23rd province of China.

 

Look, I’ve said before that I respect the neo-Confucian approach taken by the mercantilist Chinese leadership caste.  I don’t agree with it - in some ways vigorously - but I can grasp what they are trying to accomplish and overall they have been managing a miracle... financed by Americans via Walmart. (It helps that their leaders arise out of engineering, unlike our parasitical business school grads.) Look, if the Western Enlightenment fails - and I will die fighting to defend it - then Eastern-Confucian noblesse oblige seems the least-bad of all the alternatives.

But seriously, when we’re talking about North Korea, can there be any question? That brutal mini-state is entirely a creature-creation of China.  It was fostered and guarded by Mao’s armies in the 1950s. It is defended in the UN by Chinese Security Council vetoes. Its economy is kept running by Chinese-subsidized energy, coal, iron and grain. China sells the sole-core North Korean institution - its army - nearly all the weapons and equipment they use. “Special zones” are completely run by Chinese companies and ministries. Above all, the Hermit Kingdom continues to exist and maintain its wretched rule by Chinese sufferance.

Is there any rational way to perceive the People’s Republic of China as anything other than the true operator of North Korea?  Were they firmly to inform the top North Korean generals that it was time for change, those generals would obey.

One can envision why the Chinese leadership might want to maintain a Potemkin ruse of sovereignty, propping up the insupportable.  Some reasons seem plausible... like preventing the appearance of a strong and united Korea on their doorstep.  Other hypotheses erupt out of fevered imagination and paranoid-Hollywood scenario-building.  For example, what better place to engage in experiments that go far beyond the limits of decency, anywhere except in the Kim family’s psychotic realm?

Currently, by accepting the fiction of North Korean autonomy, we allow the Chinese top leadership to shrug aside responsibility for this festering canker on the world’s lip. But why accept this convenience, from which we derive zero benefit?  No question that the “23rd province” assertion would be a bold and aggressive diplomatic move!  For several reasons.  First, because China claims that Taiwan is province number 23!  All right, we’d have to linguistically finesse around that. Perhaps by calling NK an “autonomous region, like Tibet.”

Also, of course, we’d have to assert that such a situation isn’t right!  Proclaiming the north to be sovereign Korean territory, occupied as a satrapy by puppets of a neighboring regime. While demanding long term that Korea be unified, we might also insist at least that the occupying power govern well.  Moreover, if people are starving in this satrapy, the onus falls in one place. On one doorstep.

No question, this is dicey territory.  Moreover -- and let’s be clear -- I am not even asserting that this proposal is wise.  I am open to all alternatives. Still, this should be on the table. Mentioning the un-mentioned possibility... that’s my job.  Moreover, even leaking that the US is thinking about this might send a useful message.


One thing is clear; the status quo cannot stand. Such a declaration would serve notice to the Chinese Leadership caste that - despite their other accomplishments - this is a problem they can evade no longer. Whatever is done in-and-by North Korea is their responsibility.  From misuse of nuclear weapons... all the way to future lawsuits that might be filed by millions of very short Koreans... there are many disincentives against allowing this nightmare to continue.  But only if the persons who are truly responsible, and have the power, are told that this is their responsibility.

== Political Miscellany ==

* The Skeptoid offers a list of the Top Ten Anti-Science Web Sites.  It is informative and surprisingly apolitical... well, in the sense that it assails jibbering nonsense generated by lefty-idiots in equal numbers to right-wing idiots.  I’ve always avowed that the degree of insanity seems equal at both extremes. The big difference is between the mere tens of thousands who attend to one end’s nonsense, vs tens of millions who march to the opposite drum. Indeed, and illustrating this point, what’s missing from the list of virulently anti-science web locales? The site that attacks science more intensely and effectively than any other?

Fox.

* Want science and scientific issues to be debated in 2012? About time for candidates to show if they know (or care) about actual facts? Half of US economic growth since 1945 came from scientific and tech advances, yet that's languishing. Make it an issue. Donate to Science Debate 2012.   And see how bad (and good) it’s become. 

* Think Warren Buffett is an aberration?  Read about Charles Feeney, a multi billionaire who wears a $15 watch, who is giving it all away - in ways that make a big difference.  He recently gave $350 million to Cornell, to create a vast new science and technology campus on Roosevelt Island, right next to Manhattan.  Given that 50% of our economic growth since 1945 came from S&T innovation, that's called "putting your money to good use."  It's true patriotism.

* I’ll keep saying it. Though I find him 50% crazy, I also think Newt Gingrich is by far the most interesting and entertaining Republican candidate, displaying moments of brainy and insightful cogency.  Take this:  “Newt has been warning of the danger of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP)—a burst of radiation created by a high-altitude nuclear explosion... that could take down electrical systems over hundreds or thousands of miles... knocking us back to the 19th Century. ‘In theory, a small device over Omaha would knock out about half the electricity generated in the United States,’ he was quoted as saying.”

Alas, we then move back into crazy territory. “In Gingrich’s view, the threat of an EMP attack justifies actions such as preemptive strikes on the missile installations of nations such as Iran and North Korea.”  Well, Barry Goldwater was 50:50 in much the same way.  But gosh do I miss him now!

In fact, as Scientific American points out, the primary target of an EMP wouldn’t be ground-based power systems. It would be satellites. Moreover, the best defense would be a small, $50 million a year program to foster the moving of EMP resistant technologies out of the military and into civilian electronics.  This should have been started decades ago.  By now, we’d see this worry as quaint... instead of deeply worrisome.

* Aw heck, as long as we're Newting... and in fairness? I won't be soon forgiving Nancy Pelosi for what she did - or failed to do - as Speaker of the House.  Cynically trading away what she considered a low priority to democrats, re-establishing the Congressional Office of Science and Technology Assessment.  That independent analysis agency used to give congress-folk an extra set of eyes, to double-check on matters that involve scientific appraisal... in other words, everything. OSTA had been chucked out by Newt Gingrich and his pals in 1995.  (Now why would they want to do that?) But Madam Speaker now bears almost-equal blame. She flubbed a chance to do fantastic good, with a flick of her wrist.

* Drones and robots are increasingly replacing humans on the battlefield: intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, even “targeted killing”. They’re particularly good at the 4 D’s: dull, dirty, and dangerous jobs, as well as “dispassion”, the ability to react without emotion. Here’s an extensive look at some future scenarios, worthy of discussion regarding the ethical consequences. Allow this only if they carry a "reporter bug" that tells society everything they do!

* In the Stanford Law Review, Ryan Calo discusses how domestic surveillance drones will challenge our notions of privacy, calling them “the visceral jolt society needs to drag privacy law into the twenty-first century.” As small as an insect, public and private camera-carrying drones will be available to police, journalists, paparazzi, and hobbyists. Would that these scholars had the courage and breadth and class to study and acknowledge the vast literature of cogent science fiction prethinking that's already gone into these issues.

* And finally, coming full circle: Current climate models underestimate the potential impact of permafrost. Warming temperatures are melting permafrost, frozen ground that underlies nearly one-fourth of the Northern Hemisphere. One recent estimate indicates that this permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere. Released as carbon dioxide or methane, this could exacerbate global warming…a runaway cycle. We can't afford anymore to coddle fools.