Discerning the Real vs the Unreal

Before weighing back into the political morass, let me link to this article on why we seem to be eating – instead of investing in – our innovation seed corn.  Combine with failure of management with foreign theft of intellectual property from the Inventing Nations… plus the War on Science (and every other fact-using clade in American life), and you get an assault upon the wellspring of all our successes as a nation and as a civilization.

Take the 58% cut of the Fossil Energy Office which is not a den of evil, folks. FEO research enabled scores of small players to do the slant drilling that had been limited to Big Boys, like Exxon. The resulting plummet in natural gas price is what made coal virtually extinct in the U.S. and brought us (under Obama) so close to energy independence we could (and did) shrug off threats from petro sheiks and Russian oil mafiosi. Til they bought themselves a White House.

How bad can it get, when the new Trump Budget – in order to fund yet another insane Supply Side tax gift to oligarchs – is slashing research at every level, from cancer and biomedicine to canceling California’s $10 million earthquake warning system. And if that sounds like a petty child taking revenge on a state that did not vote for him, sift through the budget and find scads of other examples. For example, arm-twisting Boeing and Lockheed to move production from Washington and California to (in order to to prop up) failing Kansas, or else lose out on Saudi contracts.

Let’s be clear, this is not “politics.” Under Democratic administrations, gushers of net tax money have always flowed from blue states to red states. Because we are one nation and our brethren have needed help. Oh, but you know brothers. Some are smart and generous. Others….

Only note the latest news. Over-riding a veto by their insane Gov. Sam Brownback, the chastened Kansas legislature has rescinded most of the Supply Side tax cuts for the rich that Brownback pushed for almost a decade. Like every single other Supply Side experiment, it delivered only deficits and pain and red-ink and bankruptcy and pain for everyone except those oligarchs. But prepping for another round at the federal level is the number two reason for Trump's slashing attack on R&D and other federal investments in our future. The number one, of course, is just hate.

== Impeachment redux - and the Great Despotic Axis! ==

There was a lot of commentary and feedback from my earlier posting: Don't Impeach! Plus why is Trump really in Saudi Arabia?

Regarding the first of those two topics, a Constitutional scholar weighs in with perspectives on why, if possible, we should approach any talk of impeachment with cautious and grownup deliberation.  (And please re-read that posting of mine! Every reason I gave just doubles, every week. Leave Trump right where he is. Seriously.)

Regarding the second topic from that post, some of you offered hope that Rouhani's landslide re-election in Iran might put the kibosh on Saudi-centered drums, beating a call fro the U.S. to attack the Persian Republic. The hate-Iran screeches are growing frantic! Some are railing that Iran will attack and conquer the entire Sunni world any minute now... despite being vastly outnumbered, out-gunned and their nearest Sunni neighbor having stacks and stacks of nuclear weapons!

Oh, but then the connivers can always try a Tonkin Gulf or Gleiwitz Incident, alongside their terrorist Reichstag Fire. And they might get complicit help from the Iranian mullahs, who can see their grip on power gradually slipping away. A nice little war would suit them, too, reinforcing their grip. And Putin would love seeing stupid U.S. attacks drive Iran into his orbit. Winners all around - that is among despots.

Along similar lines, note the cozying of Trump with Ankara... and here’s a basic IQ test. Why is Philippines President Duterte jumping like a lapdog for Vladimir Putin in Moscow? Putin's anti-western axis now stretches from Ankara and (he hopes soon) the mullahs of Iran, all the way past partial ally Beijing to Manilla and... yes... Washington D.C. And if none of you can put the pieces together, I hope and pray our Intel Community has.

== Can we set up a fact-checking service immune to "partisan" charges? ==

The portion of that blog getting the most attention was a small suggestion I made, toward the end, that strong bipartisan efforts be made to develop something the nation and civilization desperately needs – a fact-checking service that is above all conceivable dogma-based reproach. 

Our counter-intelligence professionals are deeply worried about new kinds of attacks upon America by foreign powers that are vastly more sophisticated than the ones that meddled in our 2016 elections. They are struggling to  understand the battlescape of this new information war. “As Americans tweet and like and upvote their way through social media, they generate a vast trove of data on what they think and how they respond to ideas and arguments--literally thousands of expressions of belief every second on Twitter, Facebook, Reddit and Google. All of those digitized convictions are collected and stored, and much of that data is available commercially to anyone with sufficient computing power to take advantage of it," writes Massimo Calabresi in Time.

This  excellent journalistic exposé takes you through the scary path that this underground campaign of social sabotage has taken — following patterns that Fred Pohl eerily predicted in The Cool War — revealing how our own technologies have been turned against us, and why we are so vulnerable.

What the story leaves out is the central, core fact that ties it all together. For you see, most of these failure modes rely on subjectivity — the ability to sway people with appeals to emotion, group loyalty, crowd momentum and rumor mongering. 

All of these approaches fail when people are calmly willing to weigh facts. So the agenda relies utterly upon demolishing two things… both calm and facts.

In my recent blog posting, I propose four reforms that could be enacted if just thirty mature-adult Republicans joined with Democrats in Congress. But the most important would be to appoint a commission to find some way that all Americans could verify clear facts or refute blatant falsehoods. Clearly, if facts do not start gaining advantage over lies and rumors, we are doomed.

 == Is a truly trustworthy fact checking service even possible? --

Here is how I answered one noted journalist.

I suppose my main point has to do with the much-better alternative to impeachment that might solve so many more things. That would be the Great Adult Republican Defection (GARD), that so many of us have been hoping for, across the last 25 years. Sure, it never happened, despite the ever-deepening spiral into madness on the American right, for a number of reasons.

1. Brain scans show that conservatives have much stronger reflexes for both disgust and loyalty. Hence, millions of them, who wince and admit "Yes, my side has gone crazy" will also grimace at anecdotes about screaming Berkeley protesters, and growl: "But liberals are worse." That is the essential Fox line, nowadays. At the high end, it is the mantra smoothly conveyed by the Worst American -- George F. Will.

2. Republican politicians have been terrorized into tight discipline, first by the Hastert Rule, then by the Tea Party and Fox, and now by the ferocity of Trump supporters.

3. Some, like John McCain and Susan Collins and David Brooks, may now just be waiting for the right time and for the right excuse-narrative.

It's vital that we offer the remnant community of adult conservatives a way to step up that both saves face and will not seem - at surface - to be a betrayal.  I think they might be persuaded to view the deliberate Demolition of Facts - and the accompanying war upon all fact-using professions - as an existential threat to the republic, one that is orthogonal to the left-right spectrum.  Moreover we now know that foreign foes have weaponized lie-based propaganda, making this a matter of national security. See: Inside Russia's Social Media War on America.

At present, both Facebook and Google are struggling to come up with systems to identify rumors and refutable lies, but it's not easy.  

Long ago I saw this coming and proposed a method that would truly solve this, over the long run. But we need something quicker.  (My concept was lead article in the American Bar Association's Journal on Dispute Resolution (Ohio State University), v.15, N.3, pp 597-618, Aug. 2000, "Disputation Arenas: Harnessing Conflict and Competition."  Available on Amazon.  

No, what we need right now is a means to grade fact-checking services and protect them from the standard-reflex dismissal that they are "partisan." This can happen in a number of ways, but they all boil down to seeing the top, venerable sages of grownup conservatism step up to bolster the effort with their reputations.  In addition to McCain, Collins, Brooks, Rubin and so on... envision Sandra Day O'Conner, Warren Buffett and -- yes -- George W. Bush... all backing a temporary bipartisan commission (non-governmental) to come up with trustworthy ways people can refute what's false.

Why would these Republicans do this, joining with eminent Democrats and others? Well, for one thing, it would combat the madness without explicitly betraying their party. They could even say it's for the long term good of American conservatism. (It is.) 

Of course, one can foresee screams of outrage from the Murdochians, calling this an attempt to form a "Ministry of Truth." Hence a counter-narrative must be ready -- e.g. that the commission aims to help design a framework for competitive fact-checking, distributed among rivals and with citizen level involvement. But the framework must have at-top a supervising layer of the most reputable Americans - especially adult conservatives - who can say "these fact-checkers are mostly non-partisan. We vouch for them."

In essence, this restores the old rebuttal rules that Fox fought against, decades ago. Indeed, if I had my way, the GARD would include restoration of those fairness doctrines. But the key point here is that this issue would give the long-awaited (and till-now cowardly) Adult Conservatives a platform to act in ways that are ostensibly not a betrayal of party. An act that could do more for the republic than any other.

My other proposals from that blog posting -- e.g. giving the joint chiefs authority, if unanimous, to passively delay rash presidential orders, or opening the president's appointments calendar, or for moderate senators to vet his appointees together -- all are emergency measures that might ease the panic and pressure, if impeachment talk starts to boil. Those three would demand more guts from McCain & co... more desperation.

But the fact-checking suggestion is different. It is urgently needed, whatever the state of the "I-word." And it could happen in ways that save some face.

Don't Impeach! It's a trap - don't fall for it.

I had prepped a missive appraising GOP legislative proposals... but it seems we must always lead with the latest, daily crises. With even some Republicans already murmuring about impeachment and getting all moony-eyed toward the notion of "President Pence," let me repeat what I've said for a year now.  

"Impeach Trump" is a trap. 

One day, Paul Ryan will make his offer: "if you Democrats do the heavy lifting, we'll supply JUST enough GOP defectors to get a bill of impeachment passed, okay?" 
 
If the Dems stupidly agree, the GOP will grab a win-win-win. They will get rid of their Trumpian embarrassment, they'll get Pence (an eager Murdoch-lapdog, mixed with apocalyptic-dominionist toxins), who will then appoint Ryan VP.

...and all of Trump's supporters will be enraged into a war footing against Democrats, blaming liberals for Trump's fall. The disaster that is looming for the GOP, in 2018, will turn into their greatest victory. 

Oh, and the country will burn.

I'm not the only one issuing this warning, In Commentary, John Podhoretz, an anti-Trump conservative, worries that potential Democratic efforts to remove Trump from the presidency for possible legal and constitutional violations could trigger “political violence of a sort we haven’t seen in 50 years, and maybe haven’t really seen in this country in the modern era. Those who believe Trump is a unique menace … to our democratic way of life will be met with those who believe the elites are using illicit means to oust the legitimately elected president of the United States.”

There are signs that Democratic leaders can see this trap looming and are downplaying impeachment talk. Especially since Donald Trump's recent shenanigans have somewhat neutralized his ability to do truly dangerous things. (See where I explain, at the end of this posting). Still, the warning cannot be repeated too often. Do act to secure the nation from catastrophe! But then exercise patience. 

This is their problem.  Let them deal with it.  More about how, at the end of this posting.

== A remnant sapient conservative speaks ==

David Brooks is one of the smartest and most reliable writers from the old, Classic Republican school. You know... wanting capitalist markets to be flat-fair, competitive and actually work, instead of tools for oppressing the middle class.  His latest Big Perspective is worthwhile:

"Abraham Lincoln was a classic Enlightenment man. President Trump is an anti-Enlightenment man. There's a long line of Enlightenment thought that included thinkers like John Locke and Immanuel Kant who argued that people should stop deferring blindly to authority for how to live. Instead, they should think things through from the ground up, respect facts and skeptically re-examine their own assumptions and convictions.

"Enlightenment thinkers turned their skeptical ideas into skeptical institutions, notably the U.S. Constitution. America’s founders didn’t trust the people or themselves, so they built a system of rules, providing checks and balances to pit interest against interest."

What does Brooks imply, but not mention - Republican that he is (was?) - is that of course the U.S. Founders dreaded feudal oligarchy - the great enemy of 6000 years -- far more than they feared the People. 

Indeed, the crime of "ostriches" like Brooks is that they neglect ever to pull their heads out far enough to boldly make that clear. Still, he is trying. Unlike the Worst Man in America, George F. Will. 

"De Tocqueville came along and said that if a rules-based democratic government was going to work anywhere it was going to be the United States. America became the test case for the entire Enlightenment project. With his distrust of mob rule and his reverence for law, Abraham Lincoln was a classic Enlightenment man. His success in the Civil War seemed to vindicate faith in democracy and the entire Enlightenment cause."  Go read more.

Oh, but the enemies of enlightenment have tools they are refining. I never thought I'd push this book repeatedly, but get Tears of Abraham, by Sean T. Smith... an especially disturbing novel about a new American hot Civil War.

== A note from Future-Bin ==

After this May 2017 posting - I appended some addenda (see below.)  And later, an entire posting that is highly pertinent to this topic came out Thanksgiving 2017, reiterating the core point: Saving America and civilization from this confederate madness is the responsibility of moderate and liberals.  But saving a sane remnant of American conservatives is the duty of sane conservatives.  

Enough of them must stand up. And soon. Now back to the May 2017 posting.

== Supply Side Voodoo… in a nut’s shell ==

Why impeach, when we can prove the entire party is insane? I'll offer my impeachment alternatives below.  But surely you know the definition of insanity? Falling for the same alluring fallacy over and over again?  

In Republicans Keep Repeating the Same Tax Mistake, economist Megan McArdle, an avowed libertarian writing on Bloomberg – a financial/investment zine – reams the Supply Side mythology from just the simple aspect of demand elasticity, offering just one (of dozens) of reasons why it never worked.  At all.  Ever. Even once.

There ought to be a door in the wall, right here. I'll just charge through... wham! Ow!

There ought to be a door in the wall, right here. I'll just charge through... wham! Ow!

There ought to be a door in the wall, right here. I'll just charge through... wham! Ow!

It never worked. Once. Ever. Even a single time. Look at what's happened in Kansas. Look what's happened to America, following the Supply Side cult. And boy, have we reamed the middle class lured by this pied piper. This voodoo.

== The evil just goes on ==

We'll get back to my impeachment alternatives in a moment. But first. Here's what the bill H.R. 610 "Choices in Education" does.

Initiates the school voucher system (ages 5 through 17). Begins the defunding process of public schools.

Eliminates the Elementary and Education Act of 1965, the nation's educational law which also provides equal opportunity.

Repeals ESSA*, the Every Students Succeeds Act, that covers programs for struggling learners, AP (Advanced Placement) classes, ESL (English as Second Language) classes, classes for Native Americans, Rural Education, Education for the Homeless, School Safety (Gun-Free schools), Monitoring and Compliance, and Federal Accountability Programs. Abolishes the Nutritional Act of 2012 (No Hungry Kids Act) which provides nutritional standards in school breakfast and lunch.

== Back to the crisis and... impeachment ==

Let me reiterate. Falling for any offer from Paul Ryan -- to 'help' democrats remove Donald Trump -- would prove what we long suspected, that Democratic politicians are mostly-loyal  and well-meaning... but politically dumber than a sack of rocks.   If Ryan makes such an offer, the dems must say: 

"Trump is YOUR problem. Get the entire GOP House to vote impeachment and (maybe) we might provide a few votes."

Better yet, face it - Trump is more an embarrassment than a deadly danger! Now, with the entire civil service, Intelligence Community and Officer Corps alerted to the craziness, he is in many ways already neutralized. This task of ensuring our safety can be completed, with carefully chosen measures that will not ruin the office of the presidency... just make it child proof.

Instead of impeachment, Dems -- and a critical mass of sane Republicans (the few, the not-so-brave) -- should concentrate on a quartet of carefully crafted pieces of neutralizing legislation. Items so clearly in the national interest that McCain and Collins and a few dozen others would feel compelled to help them get passed, in lieu of the stupid trauma of impeachment.

1) Give the Joint Chiefs authority -- if unanimous -- to passively delay execution of presidential orders -- those commanding them to perform acts of violence or combat -- for up to a week, giving them time enough to put their misgivings before a select congressional committee. This will only diminish Commander-in-Chief authority in extremely dubious conditions. The entire nation will sleep better, yet future presidents won't be hobbled.

2) Put half of all presidential contingency and operating funds out of reach, unless the president agrees to give control over his appointments calendar, one afternoon a week, to the other party. I've proposed this before. All presidents should do this, but it is critically important right now, that the president meet and listen to eminent people beyond his current, paranoid seige-bubble.

Trump will be different if he hears other voices from outside his handlers' carefully erected walls! (Recall how he was in love with Obama for a week, after meeting him, in the White House?) This one thing could draw him far enough into the light so that he at least won't be an existential danger...

... and did I remind you to say the words "President Pence" over and over again, letting your imagination go wild? That fellow actively prays for armageddon! He will fill the White house with dominionists (look it up) with potentially scary consequences far worse than anything Trump could or might do Please. Trump chose him as impeachment insurance and you had better believe he knew what he was doing.

3) Appropriate funding for a Fact Checking Institute. Bipartisan. You will get enough Republican defectors to pass this one thing. Do it. 

Nothing could more transform this phase of our civil war than a set of fact-checking services vouched for by the top "adults" in American Conservatism. (Recruit David Brooks! Robert Dole. Sandra Day O'Conner. Heck, even George W. Bush.)

Do not shrug that one off! Stop. Close your eyes. Envision how everything today would be different, if there were a Snopes that Fox and Jones etc could not sneeringly dismiss as a liberal plot. Read about Russian-based waves of tuned social media meddling in the American psyche, and then offer us one other answer that will be one-tenth as effective as simply and finally having a place to point and say "that's not true."

4) Create an ad hoc bipartisan committee on appointments consisting of twenty House members from each party and ten Senators from each party. Call it the Alliance of Grownups. They will agree to caucus to vett presidential appointments so that competent, mature and moderate individuals will face likely confirmation -- with a grudging acceptance by the democrats that this president will appoint mostly conservatives. Work it out. Thirty sane republicans could do this, while 259 fume helplessly... then grudgingly go along.

Wouldn't Trump simply veto such bills, while screaming "traitor" at the cabal of thirty Republican grownups? Not if those thirty -- and thirty Democrats -- promise to resist impeachment calls for at least a year! He would go for that.

Do those four things, just those, in conjunction with McCain and a few Republican remnant sapients, and we would then be able to outlast the current occupant of the White House, letting him do his noble work of demolishing every last shred of credibility clutched by the Murdochian Confederacy.  

Leave him there! At least till November 2018. 

On behalf of Stephen Colbert I beg of you. Be patient.

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** ADDENDUM: A Constitutional scholar weighs in with perspectives on why, if possible, we should approach any talk of impeachment with cautious and grownup deliberation. That is, unless there is a "Reichstag Fire."
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Lagniappe: I am registering here a prediction call... a 50% probability that Donald Trump will announce some kind of Israel-Saudi deal for those two 70-year enemies to move closer together: targeting Iran. The Trump White House overflows with men who have stated or implied an eagerness for war with Iran. Because every evil force on the planet wants it to happen. 

Not the educated citizens of Iran, who are struggling gradually to wrest power from the mullahs... but the mullahs certainly want such a war! They'd be safe from major damage, under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and a nasty little snit would help them crush democracy, at home.

It serves Russian interests, since it would then drive Iran into Moscow's arms and destroy all chances of a Persian democratic renaissance. It will push Trump's political crises off the headlines and make him look 'strong.' And it serves the Saudis to a (dumb, shortsighted) T. 

One question: would the Israelis foolishly fall for this trap? If they are offered a huge inducement? A Big Peace Deal with the Sunni Arab World? It could happen. Can we hope that Rouhani's landslide re-election in Iran might put the kibosh on these war drums? Oh, but then the connivers can always try a Tonkin Gulf or Gleiwitz Incident, alongside their terrorist Reichstag Fire.