Saving the world? Hopes rise - but worries remain

Been busy shoveling mud here in SoCal... The last atmospheric river left a trail of damage across California, with catastrophic flooding, landslides, sinkholes, power outages, washed out roads, and evacuations across the state. And the latest atmospheric river breached a levee, forcing thousands to evacuate near Santa Cruz. Millions remain under flood alert in central and northern California. Unfortunately, these rivers will not ease California's ongoing drought over the long term.

As temperatures continue to rise, atmospheric models project that two out of three glaciers may be lost by 2100.

On the other hand, a recent United Nations report indicates that the ozone hole over the Antarctic is slowly beginning to shrink. If current policies are maintained, the ozone layer may be rescued from CFC damage, and heading toward restoration within decades. And my children still (in their 20s) stare at me, unable to visualize, when I tell them that the air - when I was a kid - 'hurt to breathe.'  Oh, also, there are more whales now than at any time since the 1840s. So don't let anyone tell you that we are unable to see and respond and solve crises!

1- We can... and do.

2- As for those who yowl that it deters action on other perils, if we pat ourselves on the back for previous, great accomplishments? Such people are raving idiots who care more about their own sanctimony guilt trips than actually getting things done.

Dig it, solving problems requires confidence that you can! 

Want more examples?

== Areas of progress ==

First, good news predicted by Pohl & Kornbluth, back in the 1950s!  Cultured meat is on the horizon: “From science fiction to reality, 'no kill' meat may be coming soon.” Different from plant-based meat substitutes. More than 80 companies are staking a future in the space.  And in total, this could be as much of an Earth saver (and karma reducer) as anything else on the horizon,.

More transformative than that? In Finland a startup is producing a protein could be grown in a “bioreactor” using nothing but CO2, electricity, water, nutrients like nitrogen, calcium, phosphorus and potassium — and a few bacteria. Together, they would ferment like yeast in bread dough or beer, and the result would be Solein — a tasteless white powder that looks like flour and can be flavored and added to food. The Solar Foods blog points out how much water it takes to produce one kilo of beef protein: 130,610 liters. And that kilo of protein from dairy cattle requires 450,440 liters. For one kilo of Solein: 1,490 liters.

Lab-grown alternatives may help reduce dependence on palm oil - associated with significant deforestation in tropical areas.

One of you wrote in to inform me that my concept (in Existence) of “peecycling” or getting Phosphorous out of urine – soon to be a crisis and absolutely necessary – has long been done in places. “Milwaukee has been peecycling since 1926. The Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District manufactures Milorganite. This fertilizer is made by feeding the sewerage to microbes which are separated out and dried. The result is an organic fertilizer with 4% phosphorus.”

Another form of ocean based recycling… or rather carbon capture. Gregory Benford is involved in a project to take farm crop stubble – very hard to use in any modern way without burning – and deposit it as ‘dross’ into deep ocean caverns where the carbon will stay. Much as I depict in the Brightness Reef trilogy. The company will sell carbon offset credits. Better than burning, one supposes. 

But the next item is bigger and should no longer be at all controversial.

== Ocean fertilization… simply proved ==

We no longer need tepid, tiny scale experiments in ocean fertilization… the approach to both reducing atmospheric carbon and increasing fisheries that I described in Earth (1990)… since the massive plumes of soot from Australian forest fires did it, already, on a huge scale. And the results are in. 

Wind drives transport of aerosol cross the Southern Ocean within a week.

•Chlorophyll enhancement is identified along the trajectory of aerosol.

•Oceanic phytoplankton restored the carbon released from forest fire.

•Ocean mitigates the impact of episodic event by fixing released carbon dioxide. Calculations of carbon released during the fire versus carbon absorbed by the oceanic phytoplankton bloom suggest that they were nearly equal.

I have yet to see any studies of the effect of the phytoplankton blooms on the food chain, fisheries and such but some claim anecdotally that whale activity burgeoned.

All of you puritans blocking experiments in fertilization of fast ocean currents, get over youselves. We are in a crisis. 

As my bro Kim Stanley Robinson says: "It's all hands on deck! Only doing lots of things, in parallel, can offer hope."

== Technology helps ==

Meanwhile, the rate of rollout of budget-friendly electric vehicles is going faster than predicted and there are some voices claiming the marginalizing of internal combustion engines could happen a full decade ahead of expectations.

...and...

Five new technologies helping scientists detect, track and study polar bears in their natural environment.

Researchers have split seawater (without pre-treatment) to produce green hydrogen (via electrolysis) an improvement over current methods which require highly purified water. 

Water pipe robots may be able to efficiently patrol thousands of miles of water pipes, in order to detect and stop billions of liters of water leaks.

From turbines and pumps and stoves to more ecologically conscious products: here are twenty-two inventions that may make a dent in saving the earth. 

Peter Diamandis offers  a survey of the top six humanoid robot companies, including Optimus by Tesla, Beomni by Beyond Imagination, and Atlas by Boston Dynamics.

The iPhone 14 lets you find a satellite overhead that can transmit a text or emergency call even when in the utter boonies.  It’s not quite the peer-to-peer text passing system that I urged Qualcomm to develop, 15 years ago (they did! But the cell companies refused to use it.) But this is a fine thing. (See my decade-old rant demanding such moves, to enhance civilization resilience!)  

Meanwhile... Exxon's 1970s internal climate prediction models - not released to the public - were uncannily accurate. Which means that those company executives who quashed the reports...

== Covid effects on politics? ==

 

The US suffered over a million excess deaths due to Covid-19 across the pandemic. The National Bureau of Economic Research has found that “political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for Covid-19,” and that significantly more Republicans than Democrats have died from the virus since the introduction of vaccines in early 2021 to protect against the disease.

 The study found that death rates from Covid-19 were only slightly higher for Republicans than Democrats during the early days of the pandemic, before vaccines became available. But by the summer of 2021, a few months after vaccines were introduced, “the Republican excess death rate rose to nearly double that of Democrats, and this gap widened further in the winter of 2021.” 

Had my own brush with Covid – much eased by vaxxing, ensuring it was just a mild flu…  Still went ahead and got the Omicron jab befor my coming trip to DC.

Here’s a stat worth pondering. Note that Paxlovid saved the lives of many who ‘don’t trust science.’ I wish I were kidding.

Thrive & persevere!

Environmental matters and a brighter future? And... There is no Lion King! And why that matters.

Dismayed by rumors of war? I'll try to distract with a dive into longer term hopes and existential threats. Fair?

Still, let me pause to note that exactly 79 years ago today, Soviet (mostly Russian) armies liberated Kharkov (now Kharkiv) from Nazi occupation. It was a highwater moment for that winter offensive which started with the victory at Stalingrad and brought Russian tanks to the banks of the Dnieper. The river that V.Putin clearly wants to serve as the new border with a rump and castrated Ukraine...

... moreover there are many 'war fronts' less mentioned in the news. Like this month's possible final swallowing by Russia of all but figleaf independence for Kazakhstan. Or threats to the world's subsea fiber cables below and satellites overhead. Or hints of a surreptitious struggle of Cool War, for which the "Havana Syndrome" might be the iceberg's tip. (See Jim Benford interviewed about it, on tonight's (Sunday's) episode of 60 Minutes.) Indeed, a year of retaliatory counter-strokes may (one could hypothesize) underlie Mr. Putin's apparent, frantic state.

And while what follows is a segue into today's main topic... do note the overlap.

== Earth, Herself, is boss ==

Want a vivid reminder of nature's power? 

The recent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha-apai undersea volcanic eruption sent plumes of ash and dust 30 km into the atmosphere, causing tsunami warnings along the Pacific coast, severing communications lines... as we await news of the full effects on island nation of Tonga. See the stunning before and after photos. 

And yes, I talk about Her power, in Earth. 

== Environmental problems & solutions ==

The island nation of Tuvalu is looking at legal ways to be a state if it is submerged in an era of rising sea levels. In fact, I know exactly how to do this and depict it in my novel Existence. Happy to consult if they get in touch. The fundamental baseline for such nations is... a law firm.

Meanwhile, as rising sea levels threaten low lying lands, millions of inhabitants may be displaced over the next few decades. Researchers in Bangladesh have seen some success in seeding oyster-encrusted reefs as a living defense against coastal erosion. Though how could anything be more ironic than the fact that is is the Olde Confederate South that is the US region most threatened by climate change?

There is evidence that animals across the world are miniaturizing as temperatures rise. Bird specimens at Chicago's Field Museum have lost 4% of body mass over the last four decades.

Progress on the environmental front. France just banned all 5 of the neonicotinoid pesticides that researchers are blaming for collapsing bee populations. The move follows the European Union’s ban of  the three worst offenders — clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam — in crop fields starting last month. Studies have shown that neonicotinoids cut bees’ sperm count and scramble their memory and homing skills. 

Also bees can develop a dangerous addiction to the insecticides, much like smokers for nicotine. The ban is celebrated by beekeepers and environmentalists. I am in one category and hoping to return to the other soon. And hoping my neighbors will stop spraying these noxious, harmful poisons, soon. Bees!

== More nature weirdness! ==

Okaay, this seems weirdly - even sfnally - related to how we started this posting. I hope hunger and sex can overcome this allure: Brown crabs seem to have an odd attraction to underwater power cables. The cables for offshore renewable energy emit an electromagnetic field which attracts the crustaceans and causes them to sit still. Researchers even found that exposure to higher levels of electromagnetic field strength changed the number of blood cells in the crabs' bodies. Or else they may join the next story…

Community member Timothy Bruening notes: “The and Wildlife Service is declaring 23 species extinct! We should urge Biden to have some sort of big, splashy memorial service for those 23 species! I envision 23 stones, each with a name of the extinct species.  The purpose would be to draw attention to the climate change crisis.  How is this for Judo?”

Next item? If this works, it could be among the biggest Earth-savers since solar cells and LED light bulbs. In its first investment into the lab-grown meat space, the USDA awarded $10 million to Tufts University to establish the National Institute for Cellular Agriculture. Rapid advances in lab grown meat. 

Essential to food security, urban farming doesn’t have to be horizontal. The 51-story Jian Mu Tower built in Shenzhen will contain offices, a supermarket, and a large-scale farm capable of feeding up to 40,000 people per year.

As depicted in Existence.

== There is no lion king! ==

There is absolutely no 'lion king.' It’s an important observation in light of 6000 years of propaganda that monarchy/oligarchy/aristocracy are ‘natural.’

 In fact, Nature herself does not like pyramids of power. In natural ecosystems, there is no lion king! Lions may be top predators, but they live in fear of roaming bands of young male cape buffalo, who hunt and corner and kill unwary lions and trample their cubs, an event that grows more common if lion populations rise too high. 

Now we see documented the same thing in the oceans. The ‘top predator’ orcas are often thwarted by big, tough humpback whales who smack orcas with their long pec fins to protect not only smaller humpbacks, but grays and even seals!

That this pattern has been so persistent and consistent, across every past and present complex system for a billion years, is demonstrated time and again by Multilevel Selection (MLS) Theory, which partitions natural selection into within- and between-group components. It means that the universe is filled with realms that within seem fiercely competitive...

...but when the competition has a chance to form complexities, higher orders appear that seem cooperative. And it is an observation that would be AI-lords would to well to note. 

Good news for the planet? And are "ecomodernists" part of the solution?

As most of you might guess from my novel Earth, I am a firm believer that we owe our mother-planet fealty and care, if for no other reason then for the sake of our grandchildren. This is one of many reasons why I despair over the lobotomizing effects of the so called "political axis."

The left shares my concerns, but is all-too often so rigid in reflex that it does more harm than good.  The right is vastly worse, attempting relentlessly to squirm out of even thinking about posterity or planetary destiny.

Striving to evade this silly dichotomy -- this dogmatic Scylla and Charybdis -- is a movement called "ecomodernism," which starts with the clear truth that the left is correct in its concerns... but that its reflex-hostility toward technology is utterly unhelpful. 

If we are going to get across the minefield, a large share of our solution methods must be technological, moving forward, not lamenting a nostalgic-romantic past.

== What is Ecomodernism?" ==

First, just to be clear, I do not like "movements." They are generally easy to hijack. And I will show you below some examples of how such attempts are being made on ecomodernism.  Still, in a case of respect-by-association, if Stewart Brand is for something, I will certainly give it a close look.

Elder statesman “techno-hippie” Stewart Brand has joined a dozen other luminaries to publish a deeply thoughtful and moving declaration of principles that they call the “Ecomodernist Manifesto.” It starts out with one fundamental -- accepting as utter fact global climate change as a major crisis for humanity and the planet.  Only then questioning the reflex that puritanism is the sole acceptable solution.

"Meaningful climate mitigation is fundamentally a technological challenge. By this we mean that even dramatic limits to per capita global consumption would be insufficient to achieve significant climate mitigation. Absent profound technological change there is no credible path to meaningful climate mitigation. While advocates differ in the particular mix of technologies they favor, we are aware of no quantified climate mitigation scenario in which technological change is not responsible for the vast majority of emissions cuts."

Later: "Transitioning to a world powered by zero-carbon energy sources will require energy technologies that are power dense and capable of scaling to many tens of terawatts to power a growing human economy. Most forms of renewable energy are, unfortunately, incapable of doing so." The exception being large scale use of solar.

And yes, that means these guys are in favor of ramping up the much-better designs that have been emerging for nuclear fission power, since that could end the reign of King Coal far sooner and help bridge us for thirty years, till the great era of full sustainables arrives.

If you disagree and want to gather facts to argue over priorities, great! 

But if your reflex is to dismiss such folks as enemies, then you are the problem here. And I know how you'll react to the following!

== Welcome (partial) good news! ==

Here is an important talk by Jesse Ausubel at the Long Now Foundation, describing how: “Nature is Rebounding: Land- and Ocean-sparing through Concentrating Human Activities.” 

Introduced by my old "Architechs" co-star, Alexander Rose, and by Stewart Brand, Ausubel's presentation is long, but worthwhile and fascinating, demonstrating how much good news there is, brightening our outlooks for a planet that might — just might — survive the transition era we are in.

Alas, only about a third or less of those who watch Ausubel will draw the right conclusion. 

Some will reflexively react with outrage at any sign of good news, fearing it is a trick, aimed at reducing our passion for world-saving — an absolutely crazy notion that I dissect elsewhere. 

The response of the loony Entire Right will be even worse — to prove the leftists’ fears correct!  Members of the mutant cult that has taken over American conservatism will watch Ausubel’s charts and declare that world-saving does not need our ardent, zealous attention and coordinated intervention, guided by science, augmented with firm action by individuals, groups, governments, nations and our maturing species.

Two versions of insanity, hemming us in with their crazy trips (albeit one worse than the other, at present). 

Fortunately, a few of you will watch this video and draw the correct conclusion… one promoted by Stewart and the Long Now Foundation and their penumbra of can-do techno-liberals and cyber-hippies. 

Yes!  There is some great news!  In fact, Ausubel shows good reason to believe that — if we get our acts together and negotiate sensibly and innovate like crazy and invest in new science and tools -- and try for much better consumption habits -- we may be able to bridge the minefield – saving this world for our posterity!  And possibly even limit the Anthropocene shift so that it will only be one of the planet’s medium scale extinction events, instead of an epic wave of death.  The sort of scenario that I described in Earth (1989.)

We can do that. The statistics are clear, so watch this video (or see his article, The Return of Nature: How Technology Liberates the Environment) — knowing that it is not a lullaby for complacency, but the strongest clarion call for vigorous — if calm and adult — action.

Criticism welcome!  Did I sit and rub my hands with smug glee while watching this video?  Of course not.  I spent half the time shaking my head muttering "Yes... but!" murmuring quibbles and exceptions and problems.

 For example, as much as half of the reforestation that Ausubel talks about is in the form of tree farming of monoculture pines. Better than nothing... but we need legislation forcing such agricultural forests to include stripes of hardwoods and creature-friendly diversity. And we will have to reduce water use by a whole lot more before we stop dangerously drawing down exhausted aquifers that it took nature millennia to fill. In other words, every positive step will prove to need tweaking and improvement. Skeptics and critics are welcome. 

You can help in that department! I offer an easy, even lazy method to be part of the solution-set, by joining the NGOs that amplify your proxy power! They are a bit part of the reason for some tentative good news and they are the chief paladins fighting against the bad. DO this!  Join at least half a dozen of these groups, or know you are part of the problem.

But also you can help by soothing our neighbors of the Far-Left and the Entire-Right, whose towering rages and rigid dogmas do our children and our planet no good, whatsoever. Preach that we must save the world... and that some mixed-good news suggests that the job - while hard - is actually... possible.

 == Ecomodernism: National Review backpedals...
                         while maintaining the Big Lie ==

Alas, the right's reaction to ecomodernism has proved that, if anything, I understated the plummet into lunacy.

William F. Buckley’s National Review always styled itself as the most intellectual wing of the conservative movement.  There was a time when, perhaps, that meant something. Today, it signifies only one thing: how many three or four syllable words you’ll find strung together.  

For example, take this piece - The Environmentalists' Civil War - all about the “the growing schism within American environmentalism. On one side are the pro-energy, pro-density humanists. They call themselves ecomodernists and are led by the Breakthrough Institute, a centrist, Oakland-based environmental group.”

The NR reporter waxes on about B.I.’s “ecomodernist manifesto,” which asserts that economic development is essential for environmental protection. He contrasts this to the “opposite side” of the schism — anti-energy, pro-sprawl absolutists like the students protesting for “climate justice” by demanding universities divest their portfolios of fossil fuel interests. NR: “They believe that the threat of climate change trumps all other concerns, including the welfare of people living in energy poverty.”

Rightwing propagandists have glommed onto the ecomodernists in order to portray them as brave rebels against a troglodytic community of dogmatic Standard Environmentalists.  Indeed, there is a gulf. But ecomodernists like Stewart Brand have far more in common with standard environmentalists (SE) than they do with Murdochian hypocrite-shills like this one. For one thing, they admit scientists are smart and are right more often than not, and that human generated climate change is a severe crisis that merits desperate action to reduce fossil fuel use.  Funny how the shills praising ecomodernists as enemies of Greenpeace never mention those traits!

What stunning hypocrites and liars! Ignored is the fact that the liberal side has always had a huge proportion that favored scientific advancement, technological RandD and market-driven innovation as paths toward solving many modern problems.  Science budgets always do better with democratic Congresses and/or presidents… as, indeed, do all other metrics of U.S. national health. This does not just reflect a corporatist sell-out (as some fringe lefties assert), but genuine zeal to move forward, past filthy and inefficient Intermediate techs, a belief fostered especially by folks like Jerry Brown, Al Gore and so on.

Take this paragraph from the Ecomodernist Manifesto:  "Accelerated technological progress will require the active, assertive, and aggressive participation of private sector entrepreneurs, markets, civil society, and the state. While we reject the planning fallacy of the 1950s, we continue to embrace a strong public role in addressing environmental problems and accelerating technological innovation, including research to develop better technologies, subsidies, and other measures to help bring them to market, and regulations to mitigate environmental hazards. And international collaboration on technological innovation and technology transfer is essential in the areas of agriculture and energy."

In fact, a burden of proof falls upon propagandists -- like this National Review liar -- who spread the calumny that “shiver in the dark” has ever been anything more than the mantra of a small, loony fringe, far outnumbered by the throng of Fox reporters pointing at Earth-Firsters, screaming “See?”

== The other side's  polemics... ==

Shall I swivel and remind you the Left - while currently less dangerously insane - does have its loopies? Have a look at reviews and comments on Naomi Klein's book This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs the Climate, to see how the intellectual traps and silliness of that side -- while nowhere near as bad as the right's -- are crippling and foolish.  

For example: the stunning insipidity of conflating competitive market capitalism with monopolistic-oligarchic cronyism and proto-feudalism, displays a level of smug stupidity almost comparable to National Review... which tellingly makes the same conflation! Only the right wingers call this good.

In fact, (Adam) Smithian capitalism is open, flat, fair, transparent and benefits from very close regulation of the competitive playing field... as do all other competitive arenas... from courts and democracy to science and sports. The left demonizes the word "competition" and the right demonizes the "regulation" without which competitive arenas always fail and collapse into cheating.

In fact, flat-open-fair competitive markets are as the right contends, the most vastly effective solution finding systems ever known, and they only started taking off when the western enlightenment started regulating them carefully to eliminate inevitable oligarchic cheating. Flat-open-fair competitive capitalism is the first and greatest VICTIM of today's ongoing oligarchic cheater putsch.

And if you are so unable to liberate yourself from a lobotomizing metaphor than you cannot rise above the hoary "left-right axis," then you will never comprehend the five paragraphs in this section, no matter how many times you read them. 

== Examples of the need... and the ingenuity ==

The present El Nino event may become the most powerful on record. Tell us about it!  We just had an inch of rain in SoCal… in July!  I am already clearing my drains and preparing for winter flooding. And yes, both this and the drought are evidence we are gathering, for when it comes time for slapping a great big tort lawsuit on you denialist cultists.  Do not think there will be no consequences for your deliberate obstruction of even the mildest precautions, just in case the smartest people on the planet (scientists) turn out to be right, after all.

And yet, good possibilities keep arising. For example, the Indian government plans cover the more than 19,000 kilometers of canals in Gujarat with solar panels, both generating power and reducing evaporation.  Keep an eye on this California, and especially Arizona!

Can Technology Heal What We Harm?  An article by Ron Bell on Aeon Ideas offers up a sampling of bold yet practical technologies that might help us bridge the next few decades and cross the danger zone to a better world, if only we find the gumption. Though it will take one major step, admitting that a few carbon lords are raking it in, off our children's' future:

"Every day 85 million barrels of oil are used world-wide. This is the equivalent of 3.57 billion gallons of oil every 24 hours, 365 days per year. If all the water flowing over Niagara Falls were oil, this daily amount of oil consumption would equal 6.6 hours, a little over 25%, of Niagara’s daily flow. The world’s annual oil usage equals 55 days of crude oil  continually flowing nonstop over Niagara Falls, rather than water. It’s a stunning amount of natural resources, all of which are destined to be burned and, in turn, channeled via fumes and smoke back into the atmosphere."

No, we are NOT out of the woods.  It is a time fraught with dangers and greedy mistakes that may have wrecked ecosystems and hope on a myriad other worlds, helping to explain the Fermi Paradox.

So?  In that case, let's be the first to cross the minefield. Let's earn our name as the wisest of the wise apes.