Your Corona/Covid/Covfefe sideways update

In a moment, much of interest - including startling slides - about the covid-crisis. But first: the Trumpist-Foxite war against all fact professions is zeroing in on a central goal, to crush or eliminate all of the 75 inspectors general in US agencies, for their inconvenient dedication to fact-centered professionalism. See the horrifying progress of this purge... any one incident of which would have enraged any Republican, if a Democratic President even hinted at it.

It seems vital to keep reminding this particular audience of what one of the truest Americans said - with (alas!) prophetic insight about one age-old trend among some of his countrymen:

"Throw in a Depression for good measure, promise a material heaven here on earth, add a dash of anti-Semitism, anti-Catholicism, anti-Negrosim, and a good large dose of anti-“furriners” in general and anti-intellectuals here at home, and the result might be something quite frightening – particularly when one recalls that our voting system is such that a minority distributed as pluralities in enough states can constitute a working majority in Washington."

Jiminy! Robert A. Heinlein wrote that in the early 1950s! Is there anything he did not hit right on the head? Heck, he even nailed the dominionist "Prosperity Gospel" so popular among Ted Cruz types, promising fervid followers that their "material heaven here on earth" will come by righteously seizing the property of unbelievers. 

Seriously, read his last paragraph (above) again and again to your MAGAs who might be reachable.  Then recall that Heinlein portrayed Nehemiah Scudder taking the White House against the will of a majority, in 2012. (He also spoke of America sinking into "The Crazy Years.") 

Meanwhile... winter is coming. Our latest whistleblower, former top vaccine official Rick Bright, fired by the Trump administration, recently warned Congress that the U.S. faces its "darkest winter in modern history" if it fails to develop a coordinated, effective response to the pandemic. (Late news. Bright is no longer the "latest" fired IG. Two more in just the last week,)

== Covid/covfefe update -- from our unusual angle ==

(1) There is a simple, capitalist/market solution to surging protests against “oppressive” closures of public gatherings like bars and church services. It’s called insurance. Let such groups do as they like, so long as they take out policies to remediate any subsequent outbreaks… and so long as they gather names/addresses of participants/ parishioners/ customers for contact tracing if their event endangers the public with a flareup. Note: except for random compliance audits, the state won’t get that info, only the proprietor. Also…

… if you’re so sure it’s safe, then convincing an insurance company to give reasonable rates should be a cinch, especially since many are run by Republican moguls. Hey! Don’t trust government bureaucrats? Then do it the market way! 

-- MEANWHILE…

(2) Wuhan reported no new Covid-19 cases since April 3rd*. But six new cases just emerged. So now they plan to test all 11 million people citywide in 10 days. That's what you do if you're serious about getting the virus under control and returning to modified normalcy. We (the U.S.) haven't conducted 11 million tests nationwide during this entire pandemic. 

(* With the usual caveat that you can't believe everything coming out of China)

(3) With our regular alumni reunion cancelled, Caltech posted a zoom replacement seminar day. One talk on Covid clarified some scary things. I will append below several of the slides that are frighteningly self-explanatory. Note that nearly all of the downturn in infection rates in the US is because of New York's success turning things around. Russia, India, Brazil and the U.S. are all scary. Meanwhile Florida and other states are desperately avoiding truth-telling by redefining death-attribution and reporting. It won't work. Because of those inconvenient fact-people.

(4) Two (...now five(!)...) previously “negative” sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt in Guam just tested positive, upsetting every schedule to get back in operation. The first one failed to report four days having lost his sense of smell. Indications are that one's sense of smell diminishes by the third day after infection with the novel coronavirus. 

And hence... EVERYONE, SCRATCH AND SNIFF A LEMON, DAILY!

(5) Have any of you out there noticed the surge of road repair work going on? Two months (more) ago I proposed the "Pothole Solution" to under-employment while the streets are mostly empty. I guess the idea was obvious.

(6) Hey, why aren't we seeing FOOD TRUCKS roaming neighborhoods, just like the ice cream trucks of old? With flyers they could let every home know a schedule or make orders to be dropped off. Izzit happening near you?

— AND FINALLY… An astonishing number of Sars-CoV-2 (covfefe) traits have made it more insidious than the original Sars-Cov-1 (SARS). The incredibly long and highly variable asymptomatic contagious period is the main reason for its pervasive spread and why mask discipline is vital.

But other things scare me even more and make me deeply worried and (yes) a little suspicious… like evidence of nerve and kidney damage, even when the lungs are spared. And the still unknown answer to the antibody/immunity question. (Seriously? Still? Shouldn’t the recovered be volunteering en masse for hospital duties? Or be flocking to their own bars and church services and events, so we can get an answer to that vital question? Shouldn’t Elon staff his factory with the recovered?)

All those traits - plus the notorious ability of corona viruses to cause immunity amnesia - beggar the imagination when we’re asked to believe this is just an escaped bat-pangolin virus. Just sayin’.

What to do during Cov-Fe-Fe (Covid Forced-exile From-employment). Some of you are writing fiction. Even science fiction!

First a brief historical note about the "Asian Flu" of 1957, quoting: "Maurice Hilleman, a doctor later regarded as the godfather of vaccines, in 1957 read about a nasty flu outbreak in Hong Kong that mentioned glassy-eyed children at a clinic, tipping him off that these deaths meant the next big flu pandemic.” Hilleman requested samples of the virus be shipped to U.S. drugmakers right away so they could get a vaccine ready. Though 70,000 people in the United States ultimately died, “some predicted that the U.S. death toll would have reached 1 million without the vaccine that Hilleman called for... Health officials widely credited that vaccine with saving many lives.” 

What differed then? Well, Dwight Eisenhower was a different kind of president. And the Greatest Generation admired science and expertise. And the most popular American at the time was named Jonas Salk. Make America that kind of great again.

(Read about that event and other far worse plagues from history.)

== Are some of you taking on the Great Humanican Novel? == 

While my life has changed less than most… e.g. exercising with weights instead of at the gym… I have seen a surge in news media and podcasters wanting interviews. They claim it’s for wisdom or insights about the near and farther future… but I suspect many are just bored, or need filler.

Another uptick is from folks wanting to do spec scripts based on some of my stories.* And yes, there are many fine ‘possibles’ to be found in my three collections. Someone, someday, will do “Dr. Pak’s Preschool” right and creep-out millions!  

But most prevalent in the era of Covfefe are pleas from the house-quarantined, seeking advice about writing! Both nonfiction books and (especially) science fiction stories and novels. (Ignore the slander phrase "novel-coronavirus"! They are trying to deter you!)

Yes, this happens more mildly during NaNoWriMo November (National Novel Writing Month.) Only now with greater urgency! At-minimum, it’s a more creative use of time than binge-TV and maybe a lifetime opportunity to check that item off a bucket list. And so, to those of you with an ear for dialogue and a feel for character and sense-of-story… and willingness to work hard while seeking criticism… to all of you talented up-and-comers I say –

-- to Go Away! The field is full! Have you tried jigsaw puzzles?

Um, just kidding! We’re all readers, too! And someone out there might be just on the verge of creating the Great Humanican Novel -- a tale so deeply moving it will change us all for the better. For that reason… and others… I am among the few “best-selling authors” who always responds personally to every such appeal. (I do not promise always to do that! Stephen King used to, but physically can’t anymore, alas; Nice guy, BTW.)

 Oh, sure, I have some shortcuts, like “canned advice” that I paste into most responses, using QuickKeys, before adding some bits apropos to each person. So it occurred to me. Why don’t I share that now, with all of you? 

For one thing, it might keep some of you from emailing me! (Except to say thanks and to promise me a copy of the award-winning best-seller I helped to inspire? ;-) 

More importantly, maybe some practical tools and tricks will help a few of you achieve that glimmering goal, and thus enrich us all.

== David Brin’s Canned Advice Note ==

Dear _____

Naturally I’m pleased you are writing and I do want to offer my encouragement. Still, there is good news and bad news in this modern era. The good: there are so many new ways to get heard or read or published that any persistent person can get out there.  Talent and good ideas will see the light of day!  The bad news… it is so easy to get "published," bypassing traditional channels, that millions can convince themselves "I am a published author!" without passing through the old grinding mill, in which my generation honed our skills by dint of relentless pain. 

 . . . . . . . . (Insert apropos personal note in here! ____)

Alas, fiction writing is a complex art that involves a lot of tradecraft... as it would if you took up landscape painting or silver smithing. It is insufficient simply having ideas and being skilled at nonfiction-prose, nor does a lifetime of reading stories prepare you to write them.

Story telling is incantatory magic and there are aspects to the incantation process that are mostly invisible to the incantation recipient (reader). Skills at rapid-opening, point-of-view, showing-not-telling, action, evading passive-voice and so on are achieved by studied workshopping -- and as in most arts, the whole thing is predicated upon ineffable things like talent, e.g. an ear for dialogue that only a few people have. Indeed, point-of-view (POV) is so hard that half of would be writers never "get" it, no matter how many years they put in.

This is not meant to be discouraging! It is to suggest that extensive workshopping and skill-building are as important today as they were 30 years ago.  And to do that, you need to do one of the most difficult  but rewarding things a mature human can do – relish and seek criticism.

And enjoy whatever level you reach! Seriously. Tell a story. Even give it a way (as I am virtually giving away my sci fi comedy!)
No matter what, you'll be a creator of worlds. 
A kind of deity. 
An artist.

This answer is already too long. So what I can do is point you to an "advice article" that I've posted online, containing a distillation of wisdom and answers to questions I've been sent across 20 years.  (Note, most authors never answer at all.) 

I can also offer a general site containing advice bits from other top writers.

Then there is my advice video!  

Many people have found these items extremely helpful. I hope you will. But either way, do persevere.

Good luck!

David Brin

== Anything Specific? ==

All right that was a bit vague and general. There's lots more specific advice and pointers if you follow the links. And down below in comments. If enough of you ask, I may append some very specific examples of common beginner mistakes and how to avoid them.

Beyond that, however, the adventure is yours. Enjoy. And at-risk of violating my own rule against repetition… persevere!


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* Re spec scripts: I do require a very strong, signed release! And real experience is required. And this applies only to short fiction, not novels or series. Sorry.