Friday, December 20, 2024

Space Roundup : heading into 2025

We haven't stopped moving ahead. Nor will we.  And hence, with the aim of ending a tumultuous year on a high note... very high... here's my roundup of recent space science news - and upcoming missions... and so on...


== Lots of stuff out there! ==

Asteroid 5748DaveBrin
First, here's Asteroid 5748DaveBrin, kindly named by discoverer Eleanor "Glo" Helin, back in the 20th Century. Since then, many thousands more have been tracked, but so many more must be, in order to ensure our safety (from dinosaur-killers or city-smashers) and to assay future wealth! 

 See the montage of images of my rock!

In an era of Big Government and Big Commercial Science, the B612* Foundation has a special niche, software-mining massive old datasets, and thusly finding and cataloguing more rocks out there than anyone!  Consider B612 for your list of save the world donations! (*I am on the B612 advisory council.)


(If this is your season for general philanthropy or giving, or investing in a better tomorrow, here's my annual appeal that you consider the win-win-win of Proxy Activism! And again, do include potentially world-saving B612!)


But sure, the Big Guys will also help. 


In fact, there are high hopes and expectations for the Vera Rubin (formerly Large Synoptic Survey) Telescope opening in Chile, next year. It will scan the sky in vast sweeps, comparing images from night to night, for transients and changes, discovering far more supernovas and novas, for example...

... but also possibly millions of previously undetected asteroids. See this chart provided by the Asteroid Institute and B612. Together, we are finding thousands of objects and appraising their potential to endanger our planet. Or else to make our children rich.

Even before the Vera Rubin scope commences to tally many new objects in the Kuiper belt beyond Neptune, some surprises are already emerging about that cold, dark region (of which Pluto is a part.)   Astronomers have just found hints of an unexpected rise in the density of Kuiper Belt objects or KBOs, between 70 and 90 AU from the Sun. In the region between 55 and 70 AU, however, next to nothing has been found.



== So, who should do the exploring, out there? ==


  Well, if you are talking about just exploring – poking at new places and doing science – then robotics wins, hands-down. 


Sorry but machines are better for poking at the edges. That’s what NASA/Japan and Europe should do with respect to the Moon, instead of silly footprint stunts. For 5% of the cost of “Artemis” we could robotically seek and verify, or else (more likely) refute those tall tales of ‘lunar resources.’


But there’s another mission for astronauts – plus tourists and researchers – in space. And that is studying how humans can learn to actually live and work out there


For the near term, that’ll entail a lot of work in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), where issues of supply, recycling and radiation safety are easier to control. And above all, we should (must!) finally build spinning facilities that can tell us (at long last) what gravity conditions humans need, in order to survive and stay healthy. 


Over 60 years since Gagarin, we still haven't a clue how to answer that simple question! It’s the fascinating topic that Joseph Carroll elucidates in "What do we need astronauts for?" published in in Space Review.  


He follows that up with a more detailed article, "How to test artificial gravity" - about near term missions to experiment with spinning artificial gravity (SAG), starting with a simple test using just a Crew Dragon and the upper Falcon stage that launched it. Then moving on to a highly plausible path toward making space a vastly more welcoming place. 



== Looking ahead.... Future Space Missions ==


Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin plans to skip from the tiny-but-self-landing New Shepherd, leaping way past sturdy-reliable self-landing Falcon9 and triple self-landing Falcon Heavy, all the way to landing sub-Starship New Glenn on a barge. Or so they say. I guess we'll see - maybe soon.


Rocket Lab’s twin probes to study aurorae and the atmosphere of Mars were made super-inexpensively. They’ll head out there soon (NOT cheaply) on the New Glenn heavy. 


Among many terrific initiatives seed-funded by NIAC (where I was an advisor for a decade), one getting attention in the New Yorker is the Farview radio telescope to be set up on the Moon’s far side. Though the article made an error in the name; it’s NASA’s Innovative & Advanced Concepts program – (NIAC). But yeah, look at the range of incredible, just-short-of-science-fiction concepts! 


One of my favorite NIAC concepts of the last few years was the Linares Statite, that would hover on sunlight, way out at the asteroid belt, ready to fold its wings and dive like a peregrine falcon past the sun to catch up with almost anything, such as another 'Oumuamua interstellar visitor. Slava Turyshev's Project Sundiver has shown that you get a lot of speed if you plummet to graze just past Sol, then snap open your lightsail at nearest passage. In fact it is the best way to streak to the Kuiper Belt. And beyond!


That's just one of many potential uses of lightsails that are described - via both stories and nonfiction - in the 21st Century edition of Project Solar Sail! Revised and updated, then edited by me and Stephen W. Potts, this great new version will be featured by the Planetary Society next month!



Finally....


Beautiful images of the hot place. The ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission has successfully completed its fourth of six gravity assist flybys at Mercury, capturing images of two special impact craters as it uses the little planet’s gravity to steer itself on course to enter orbit around Mercury in November 2026.


And an Ai piloted F-16 (with human observers) outperformed regularly piloted F-16s in tests including 'dogfights.'


My friend and former NIAC colleague-physicist John Cramer (who just turned 90; happy birthday John!) two decades ago used data from NASA’s WMAP survey to produce "The Sound of the Big Bang.”  … A recent topic of Brewster Rockit!


And yeah, may you and yours... and all of us... manage to persevere... and yes thrive(!) through "interesting times."  


And may we meet and party hearty eventually... out there.


Sunday, December 15, 2024

Brin's Final Election Daydream. A Cassandra's forlorn appeal.


== Brinsbury's summer and winter daydreams ==

In Gary Trudeau's wonderful Doonesbury strip, the lead character -- Mike Doonesbury -- has 'summer daydreams' of how things ought to be. In my case, it's year-round and every week! But hey, it's my job and someone's gotta do it -- ponder potential paths -- some plausible and many just kind-of and some not-at-all.  Possible paths out of the traps that we face. 

And sure, I'm generally relegated to the lamentation of Cassandra, muttering "I told you so!" too many times to count. Though not always, e.g. when the California Democratic Party asked me to propose "near future legislation" to address the plummet of factuality and verification in American politics. Perhaps the most crucial matter of our time! The resulting Fact Act at least got a little attention! Though not enough to get anywhere.












Other proposals include methods to get around the current Supreme Court's outrageous support for gerrymandering. One concept, that would bypass all politicians, got approving attention from a senior US Court of Appeals judge. My collection of such potential maneuvers - many of them non- or even anti-partisan - can be found in Polemical Judo


But here I'll focus on four concepts that could affect one of the most important and pivotal days in the entire history of civilization. 

That pivotal day is today, December 16, 2024.  
It's the very last day that a few brave Americans might turn back (partially) a tsunami of treason and pain. Because the very next day -- Tuesday the 17th of December 2024 -- is the day that the Electoral College 'meets' to cast the actual votes that will make Donald Trump President for a second -- and maniacally destructive -- time.

Trying to get these concepts where they might be acted upon has been futile, of course. The Democratic Party political and punditry clans are frantically circling their wagons to fend off accountability for their incompetent blunders. Above all, any idea Not Invented Here is to be met with savage repression.  

In particular, any mention of the Electoral College prompts shrugs and sighs, even though several past elections have tilted this way or that (depending on your view) with either patriotic acts of courage or shenanigans. 

Well, well. 
With one day left, I must admit I was straying outside my lane
Still, here are the two EC notions that I tried to convey
And one more that occurred to me just yesterday! 

... Plus one that Joe Biden might still pull off, during his remaining month in office, and be known for it, forever.


== Two now-forlorn ways to shift the Electoral College... and one more that could work, even now ==

Okay, it's too late for these first two. In fact, it's because it's too late that I'm telling you the second one, now.

* The first one is so old that it's in Polemical Judo.  It describes how two rich dudes - one Republican, one Democrat and both patriots -- might arrange for the Presidential Electors to actually meet and deliberate in person -- by their OWN volition and without any outside pressures -- as the Founders clearly intended. I describe the concept here. There's no reason it couldn't happen. 

But not this year. And maybe - if the Putinists succeed - not ever. Still, here it is

* Second idea: I only hinted at this one, in hopes that I might be able to pitch it directly to Kamala Harris
Only her
It would have guaranteed her a place of amazed remembrance across U.S. history! 
Alas, her layers of not-invented-here factotums were too thick. 

Boiled down to essence, I suggested that she could declare:

"Look, I lost the election! That's on me. By narrow margins but in crucial states, the people chose for the next Senate, House and Presidency to be controlled by Republicans. 

"But does it have to be THIS Republican? A capering, frothing madman whose every chosen appointee openly and gleefully declares open war against every fact-using element in American life? Like the Roman Emperor Caligula, who made his horse Consul of Rome, Trump is appointing a whole herd of utter crazies!"

Forget idiocies like "right" or "left." This is now about all-out war vs all fact using professions! From science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. And so she might have continued:

"Already it's clear that many of those who supported Donald Trump -- perhaps because they feared or disliked me -- are having buyers' remorse. So let me ask this.

"If we're to be led by Republicans, can it at least be grownup ones? Anyway the last thing I should do is stand in the way of the ruling party making their own choice on the matter. 

"And hence I am stepping out of the way.  

"I now ask all of the U.S. Electoral College members who are pledged to me NOT to vote for me on December 17! 

"Instead, I ask that all of them... every single one... vote for the current head of the Republican Party and Majority Leader in the U.S. Senate, the honorable John Thune."

Amid that moment of shock, she could point out that Thune and she have cancelled each others votes any number of times. They support vastly different policies. Moreover --
       "If this works, I will oppose him at most levels of practical politics. 
        "But, unlike Donald Trump, John Thune is an honorable person, a sane person, a person of genuine mental capacity and above all, an American patriot." 

Look, here's the deal: If every Democratic elector voted for Thune, the 312 Republican electors would then have a choice. A chance to back out of their monstrous deal with the devil. Just 15% of them could make the difference and turn a madman from all that power. Just 40 or so could instead make a decent human being President! 

And then, in a spirit of bipartisan peace-making, maybe vote to make Tim Walz Vice President?

"Just 15% of GOP electors could do this. And don't let those sappy state laws against 'faithless electors' intimidate you! They have no value against the Founders' clear intent for Elector sovereignty. 

"And so I urge you Democratic electors who are pledged to me, to follow my lead on this, one last time. Let us lay a challenge before our Republican neighbors. Tell them YOU WIN! Now show us that you plan to use your victory toward an America that is at least not-insane."


== Brin's gone mad? ==

So, okay, it's not gonna happen. I never shared this with all of you out there, in forlorn hope that she might ponder it. Ponder acting as Alexander Hamilton did, in the mixed up election of 1800. Rising above party to pick decency over corruption.

Is the idea at least original? 
Sure. It's what I'm paid for... 
... and it's why many DP hacks cry "Shields up!" against anything like original thinking. 

Okay. Maybe I'm a fool. But at least an entertaining one!


== Tonight's last idea! ==

Okay then, if it's too late for those two ideas, then why am I hurrying to post this blog, on the last of all possible days?

Well, first, to once again remind Joe Biden that his own potential gambit still is possible!  I described it here and the potential for utterly rocking the entire political boat is stunning!

(You could do this one thing, Joe! During the next month. It might accomplish nothing... or else transform U.S. politics and society utterly.  And you have nothing to lose.)

But that's not tonight's featured idea!  

Here it comes.

This one ain't gonna work, either! But it is related to the Biden vs. Blackmail concept. And I'd be wrong not to at least mention it...

...and I promise it is WAY unconventional. Though it would make a great concept for a thriller novel!

Okay, here goes.

Donald Trump has made it clear how much he hates modernity and every smartypants profession -- it is the shared hate that got him support from many former democrats and all of the MAGAs who now pour spite at the universities and nerdy civil servants and scientists and FBI/Intel/military officers and all the rest who are now hated-on nightly by Fox. 

Above all, Trump was traumatized when nearly all of the adults-in-the-room he appointed in 2017 later turned and denounced him!  Almost 100 of them. Two secretaries of state, two of defense, two chiefs of staff and so on and so on. And Don swore never to let it happen again!

The one common trait of ALL of his new appointees is that there is not a single adult among them. Not one who wants to do a good job. All are meant - above all - to spite every grownup in America and around the world. All of them are Caligula's horses.

But that's not enough. Personal loyalty is paramount to Trump. It is the ONLY thing that matters. And there is one way to ensure loyalty, that he learned from Vladimir Putin.  

No, it's not poison tea or upper story windows. Not yet.  
Rather, the thing that works.
The one thing that works almost always and almost perfectly is blackmail.

(I can just hear many of you: "Again, Brin, with the blackmail thing?" 
(Hell yeah! Because everyone who simply shrugs it off is a pure dunce. 
(And I am looking at YOU, right now, my friend.)

Blackmail means that if someone turns on you, you get to ruin their life. It works. It is likely rife in DC right now.  And Joe Biden could shatter it, during his final month. He could!

But... but Trump is making hundreds of appointments! 
So how could he collect blackmail on all of them? 
Or even the top fifty or so? 
That's ridiculous, Brin! 
Why... he'd have to.... He'd have to...

Ah, I see the light in some of your eyes. 
You are starting to see. 
You begin to picture a set of rooms, in a back corner of Mar-a-Lago...


== The irony of the donkey ==

Okay, we truly are down a rabbit hole, now! Some of you are storming off, in a huff, declaring that I've lost all credibility, if not my marbles.
     The rest of you are staying, to see how far down it goes. 
      Hang in there. It won't take long.

LOOK at the execrable quality of the men and women Donald Trump is appointing! This is their one chance in otherwise miserable lives, envying and hating all those snooty, smartypants fact people who actually know stuff and can think. 
    These moronic appointees want aboard! 
    They will do anything Trump asks of them...

... including going into those back rooms at Mar-a-Lago and -- in front of cameras -- giving Don all the leverage and kompromat he could ever want...
    ...so he can feel secure in their loyalty, forever. 
     And yes, how lovely - if kinky - the symbolism, if some of the acts involve the symbol animal of the other party?

Before you sniff and roll your eyes... consider.  The motive, means and opportunity are all there, along with the expertise.

The method has been standard in Russian secret services ever since czarist times! 
The Oprichina, the Okrhana, the NKVD and KGB, the current Kremlin all used it... and quite a few western oligarchs, as well.

Can you give me one good reason why Donald Trump would NOT do this? Given motive, means and opportunity... and the flunkies' desperate wish to get aboard? And his own desperate wish to keep personal loyalty secured, forever and ever and ever?


== And so, one last forlorn hope ==

If any of you out there happens to know anyone who knows any of Trump's menagerie of jibbering losers (and I am deliberately excluding a couple of hugely brilliant winners), you MIGHT pass along word about this. Especially today. 

Tell them there's a possible way out of this trap:

-  If you reveal it on Monday December 17, you might have the perpetual respect and gratitude of the nation! A nation you just might have helped to save! And the donkey thing won't matter.

-  if you reveal it to Biden and/or the FBI before January 20, you will likely get a pardon. And still be thanked for arming us to protect against the worst.

-  and if you miss those dates, but ever step up and help us all to topple the madness, I promise that I - at least - will fight for you.


Okay then, there's my last gasp of a "Brin's Autumn Daydreams" about the mad election of 2024...

...except to urge that some of you read the future history novels of Robert Heinlein, who forecast dark times for America, like The Crazy Years... 

... followed by a generation of wretched rule by cruel theocrats... 

... followed by a restoration of both sanity and enlightenment... 

... and resumption of our wonderful climb out of darkness...

...to the stars.

Saturday, December 07, 2024

More sci fi comedy! And TASAT is go! Plus many other sci-fi related sites and resources!

For your weekend pleasure, I've posted the third installment of THE ANCIENT ONES - my SF comedy novel... that also delivers some unexpected twists on hoary sci-fi tropes. I don't see any comments under the prior postings, so I assume they were... fun? That some of the puns knocked you unconscious?

Your wit is welcome.

Okay, back to the world and varied ways to save it!

Far more important than any of the news below, is my annual suggestion for Seasonal Giving -- how your philanthropy dollars can be targeted in ways that help to achieve the world you want. If you have a dozen things you feel should be done, there’s an NGO trying for each of them. Please read

Save the world, your way.


== And now something for you... ==

...Well, for the prosperous sci fi aficionado. After 44 years, there is a hardcover of my first novel SundiverIt's a lovely, collectible edition (numbered and signed) with a gorgeous new cover and interiors by Jim Burns. From Phantasia Press. (Not cheap. But wow does Phantasia do good work!)

Are you more rich in nerdy sci fi knowledge, instead? 

Well again, The TASAT project -- There's A Story About That! -- is doing great! A special service I've tried to bring into the world for almost 20 years. And now, thanks top master programmer Todd Zimmerman, it lives!

Come by TASAT.org and see how there's a small but real chance that nerdy SciFi readers like you might one day save the world!

Or like Ray Bradbury's chillingly prescient time paradox story "The Sound of Thunder."



Addendum -- other science fiction resources:

And now a year-ed gift for the nerdiest. A passel of web resources all about science fiction!

Here is a list of useful online science fiction resources, including databases, encyclopedias, as well as discussion forums and question and answer sites... 

Science Fiction Academia

Science Fiction Research Association -
“The oldest professional association dedicated to scholarly inquiry into Science Fiction and the Fantastic across all media.”

SFE: SF Encyclopedia -  
“Our aim is to provide a comprehensive, scholarly, and critical guide to science fiction in all its forms.”

The Science Fiction and Fantasy Research Database -
“A freely available online resource designed to help students and researchers locate secondary sources for the study of the science fiction and fantasy and associated genres.”

J Wayne and Elsie M Gunn Center for the Study of Science Fiction   -
“A safe space for inquiry into, education about, and celebration of the genre.”

Science Fiction Databases

The Internet Speculative Fiction Database
“A community effort to catalog works of science fiction, fantasy, and horror.”

Science Fiction – TV Tropes -
A section of the famous TV Tropes site, focused on popular themes in science fiction.

Inventions and Ideas from Science Fiction Books and Movies at Technovelgy.com -
"Explore the inventions, technology and ideas of science fiction writers at Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!)"

Science Fiction Forums

Science Fiction & Fantasy Stack Exchange -  
“A question and answer site for science fiction and fantasy enthusiasts.”

r/scifiwriting -
A subreddit for writers of science fiction.

r/AskScienceFiction -
"It's like Ask Science, but all questions and answers are written with answers gleaned from the universe itself."

Worldbuilding Stack Exchange -
“A question and answer site for writers/artists using science, geography and culture to construct imaginary worlds and settings.”

And yes, I'll repeat that I am continuing each week, more or less, posting chapters of my sci fi comedy novel THE ANCIENT ONES. Hey, can you really turn down free yucks?


== Defy The Beast! == 

The world is worth loving and saving. We do that by proselytizing what can truly save it...

...belief that we have a future.


Friday, November 29, 2024

What Democrats did wrong... Three categories of rationalizing - while ignoring why they hate us.

At the end I'll cite some book and SF news, including some fun! Like part two of my comedy, The Ancient Ones.


Only now we'll return to the topic on everyone’s mind… WTF just happened?  And what should we do now?


We'll start with Nathan Gardels – editor & publisher of the excellent NoÄ“ma Magazine - who always offers interesting observations. Though, he often triggers my infamously ornery “Yes… but…” reflex and a too-long response. (Several posts here originated in rémise to Nathan.)


In a recent missive - "How to Soul-Search as a Losing Party" - appraising What Democrats did wrong, Gardels points out many valid things… while reaching a conclusion that I deem spectacularly mistaken. Taking note of how so many Black and Hispanic males abandoned the old, Rooseveltean Coalition, he joins with so many others out there, urging a campaign of gentle conciliation.


Nathan cites a raft of earnest intellectuals, as well as deliberative ‘citizens panels’ that have – in Europe – shown some success at getting participants to bridge the dogmatic gaps that divided them. Indeed, such experiments have been terrific! It is the mature approach. And it works… 

...with those who are already drawn far enough into the process to leave behind their familiarly comfortable, polemical echo chambers. Forsaking today’s media Nuremberg rallies, in order to participate. 

“(O)nce informed and empathetically exposed to the concerns of others, participants move from previously held dispositions toward a consensus.“


Indeed, that participation can be widespread! As in the Truth and Reconciliation process led by Nelson Mandela, in South Africa, and similar endeavors in Argentina and Chile, wherein vast swathes of the public – on all sides – realized they must do this… or risk losing everything.


As for it happening in today’s USA? Well, I can think of one actual, real world example. 

         

All across the nation, grand juries are selected from randomly-chosen voters and vetted for general reasonableness. In a majority of American counties, the resulting panels consist largely of fairly typical white retirees. And yet, it has been exactly those red county white retirees who – after exposure to arguments and copious evidence – have indicted so many Republican politicians and associates of a vast range of crimes.


    I’d argue that is a kind of fact-based consensus-building, even if it leads to some well-deserved pain by the fomenters of one side.


That is the first of many reasons why the masters of that side will have no interest in allowing wider versions of consensus building.


I do not see any hope of such a thing happening in today’s America, at any kind of scale.


…with one barely plausible exception.


Saturday, November 23, 2024

THE ANCIENT ONES lives! So does TASAT! And a SUNDIVER hardcover! Plus some Science Fictional Musings

They're alive! 

(1) I'm posting my SF comedy THE ANCIENT ONES!

Samples were available at davidbrin.com. Only now I'll go all the way through, one chapter per week (or so) on Wordpress. Come by for laughs + painful puns! And some sci fi concepts taken to extremes. Oh and there'll be freebies for best groaner comments to adjust the final version. (Full novel soon at Histria Press!)


(2)  After 44 years, there is (released today) a hardcover of my first novel SUNDIVER

It's a lovely, collectible edition with a gorgeous new cover and interiors by Jim Burns. From Phantasia Press. (Not cheap. But wow does Phantsia do good work!). (www.tinyurl.com/hardsundiver)


(3) Also the TASAT project is doing great! I've touted it before - a special service I've tried to bring into the world for almost 20 years. And now, thanks to master programmer Todd Zimmerman, it lives!

Come by TASAT.org and see how there's a small but real chance that nerdy SciFi readers like YOU might one day save the world!

So, yeah, I've been busy. 
And you should stay busy. 
And hence...
... want another predictive overlap between fiction and the onrushing future? 


                == Rich prepper ingrates using my ideas ==

Almost exactly as depicted in Existence -- and after conversation with some of the innovative schemers -- it seems that an island nation -- one that is threatened by rising seas -- is collaborating with world zillionaires to erect a lagoon-sheltered arcology-city One that can float above changing sea levels… providing both those zillionaires and the island nation’s elites with refuge from both angry Nature and the western tax man. Again, exactly as in EXISTENCE. Moreover, as a bonus, those zillionaire preppers will get a legacy-sovereign UN seat, like a heritable seat on a stock exchange or law firm. Well-schemed! 

And no need to pay the fellow who gave you the idea, in the first place? That, too, was predicted.

Speaking of predictive success, here’s an extremely minor forecast I'll now offer. Minor, but still, one for the registry. I foresee that folks will feel a small but real sense of relief when we reach the year 2032!  Why?  Because we will suddenly be able to use just 6 digits for the date, instead of 8.  Can you envision why?  Speak up, in comments.


Alas though, right about the same year religious zealotry will spread rapture ravings, like nothing we have ever seen before. Can you envision why? I explained here. Hopefully, by then we'll still have a civilization then that awards predictive points. And that has resumed confidence in science and reason.


Meanwhile... In Nautilus, Namir Khaliq interviews me, Doctorow, Bujold, Stross, Jemison and Weir about how science influences science fiction, especially in a time of looming AI.  Come for insights. 



== Are hidden or ‘shy’ aliens or AIs watching us right now? ==


The "After On" podcast posting by Rob Reid (author of the SF novels After On and Year Zero) about "Shy or Hidden AI" was fun and well-spoken... though incomplete and hence not fully persuasive. "Might we unwittingly start sharing our world with a super AI?" A monologue and (mostly) playful thought experiment. Listen on Apple Podcasts

Interesting? Well... let me shine light on one under-explored aspect. For about two decades, I've pretty often been interviewed about either aliens or Artificial Intelligence. Sometimes I trot out a particular riff, when it seems likely to be fun. Here goes:

"I can now reveal that I've been 'channeling' for hidden (aliens/AIs) who use me as their human 'front,' to publish odd thoughts, or their attempts at sci fi (some better than others!), or else in order to float ideas out there...

"...like this idea that I'm floating right now, that a particular human might collaborate in this way, fronting for cryptic (aliens/AIs) who are shy about being publicly revealed. An idea that nearly all human audiences have deemed benignly amusing, because they assume that I am joking!

"But then, isn't that what I'd be hired to do? Getting folks pondering the possibility, so that the hidden aliens or AIs might get a measure of the reactions? Perhaps to see if it's safe to come out?


"Or else... isn't this exactly what a rascal like me would say, in order to tease about weird ideas? Just like you idea-rascals out there pay me to do?"

In fact, most of the last fourth of my novel Existence ponders cryptic or 'shy" interstellar probes who (conjecturally) have been lurking in the asteroid belt for millions of years, and might recently have been probing our internet. In that novel I riff-contemplate a wide array of motives they might have for maintaining secrecy a while longer. And yes, using humans as intermediaries is one of a dozen (actually 13) possible scenarios.

Still, this is an interesting and fun... if incomplete ... podcast speculation about the possibility. Including the notion that instead of lurker alien probes, it might be 'Shy AIs' reading these words right now as I type them... or else from stored files, five years from now.

I do say other things to such aliens or AI lurkers, that I won't get into here. Suffice it that I give them grandfatherly advice! ;-)



== The deep context of sci fi ==


Possibly the greatest living epic poet – certainly of epic-length poems about the future or sci fi themes – is Frederick Turner.  He’s done me the honor of reading Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood And while agreeing with some of my points, he also demurs on others. 


"Yes, many of the great epics - works like the Mahabharata, the Heike and the Aeneid – do emphasize demigods in a context of assumed rule by kingship.  But that may not have been in preferred-contrast to then-unknown innovations like democracy." 


Rather -- Fred argues -- many of them do contain their own profound critiques of power abuse by hereditary kings. Further, many of those epics may have been viewed as liberal in their age and context, contrasting instead vs: “…the only prior alternative, bloody tribalism and what Marx called rural idiocy. The city was a huge achievement, and it needed walls and authority, and was the origin of law and advanced technology.”

Certainly it has been pointed out that the story of Cain vs Abel has a context of the resentment by hunters and herders against the encroachment of agriculturalists, who appear (from genetic evidence) to have been far more expansionist and violent. 


Indeed, a major new element has been added by genetic research which now says there was likely a huge Y Chromosome bottleneck around 10,000 years ago. Weirdly and inexplicably, it may have happened roughly simultaneously across much of the world -- a few centuries when only 17% or so of males got to breed. The implications are immense!  


For one thing, this was the disruptive time when we invented both beer and kings. It's known that humans had less resistance to alcohol back then - more like other mammals, who are still very susceptible. So drunken boors musta been much more common. And this coincided with the new kings of minor agricultural realms, who abruptly possessed a power that tribal chiefs never had - to order killed anyone they didn't like, including drunken boors. (This was actually observed by Captain Cook etc., in Polynesia.)  Hence, just one effect could have been a major quick-evolution toward more self control re alcohol. (Still incomplete, alas.)


It seems that this phase only lasted a few centuries, until kingdoms grew larger. At which point the top king's harems were as big as he could handle and he gained nothing further by allowing the lords under him to keep rampage-murdering other males. In fact, the local top king would lose soldiers that he needed against other mid-sized kings.  Hence, there arrived rule of law against capricious murder... even by local lords... and the Y Chromosome bottleneck stabilized.


Sure, that is a speculative take on recent discoveries. But if all that is true, then there may be real implications for the vast oeuvre of oral mythology, coming to us from that era. The roots of all our heritage might be re-examined in new light.



== Pertinent Prescience? ==


Octavia Butler's terrific 1998 novel, Parable of the Talents, depicts a dystopian US ruled by fundamentalists. President Jarret seeks to rid the country of non-Christian beliefs, using the slogan.... "Make America Great Again." Sigh and alack.

And I miss her.


And her memory reminds me that we need to Make America smart and good and wise (and thus actually Great) someday yet again.