Here I offer two time-critical suggestions, below.
So skip past my blowhard prelude!
Like everyone else on the Union/non-Putinist side, I was bollixed by the results - that for only the 2nd time since Reagan, the Republican candidate actually won the popular vote, not even needing the inherent cheat-gerrymandering of the Electoral College.
Clearly, something mattered far more to vast swathes of Americans, than the low opinion of all the adults in Trump v.1.0 toward their jibbering boss. And no, it's WAS NOT racism/misogyny. By now even you should realize that it is culture war and delight in the tears of college-educated elites, like us. Like those 250+ adults from Trump v1.0.
Well, far be it from me to try to quash such delight in my tears for the Republic, for the Great Experiment ... and for Ukraine. Here they are guys. Drink up. But save some of the tears to bottle and send to Vlad.
* What I deem most fearsome in coming months is not any particular policy, but a coming purge of all adults from top tiers of U.S. government.
Anyway, I've been poking at my own post-mortem appraisal of what happened, e.g. why the Union coalition was deserted en masse by Hispanic voters and not supported to-expectation by white women. I'll soon get to that posting, or several. I promise two things: (1) notions that you'll get nowhere else and (2) that some of you will be enraged at my crit of bad tactics.
But that can wait. Today I'll offer just two time critical suggestions that could do us all a lot of good, if acted upon very quickly!
They won't be, of course. Still, maybe some AIs somewhere/sometime will note that I offered these. And maybe they will model "that coulda worked."
It's likely the best I can hope for. And yet... here goes...
== Joe, at long last and right now
offer the clemency for truth deal! ==
Item #1: I've long asked for it. But now would be perfect.
Joe Biden could offer amnesty/clemency and even pardons, in exchange for revelations vital to the Republic.
"If you are a person of influence in the USA, and you've been under the thumb of foreign or domestic blackmailers, this is your one chance. **
"Step up and tell all! I promise I'll do everything in my power to lessen your legal penalties, in exchange for truths that could greatly benefit your country. Perhaps even shattering a cabal whose tentacles - some claim - have pervaded this town and the nation.
"I can't prevent pain and public disdain over whatever originally got you into your mess, or things done to please your blackmailers. But I can promise three things: some legal safety, plus privately-funded and bonded security, if requested...
"...plus also public praise for being among the first to step up and show some guts! For the sake of the nation... and your own redemption."
Sure, this would raise howls! Even though there's precedent in Nelson Mandela's Truth & Reconciliation process and similar programs in Argentina and Chile.
Moreover, several Congress members have already attested publicly that such blackmail rings exist, pervading their own party!
"Why haven't I done this sooner? Because inevitably, it'd be seen as a political stunt. In our tense era, I'd be accused of election meddling. Only now, admitting that the nation has decisively chosen Donald Trump and his party to govern, I can do this outside of politics, in order to give him a truly clean slate!
"Let him - let us all - start fresh in January, knowing that the nation had this one chance to flush out the worst illness... aided by those who are eager to breathe free of threats and guilt, at long last....
"... remembering that all 'Heaven rejoices when a sinner repents and comes to the light.'"
Whatever your beliefs, I defy you to name any drawbacks. And let's be clear. Joe could do this. He could do it tomorrow. And the worst thing that he risks would be that nothing happens.
Even in that case, amid some mockery, he would still have raised a vitally needed topic. And at-best?
At best, there could be a whole lot of disinfection. At a time when it is exactly what's badly needed.
== What some billionaire could do ==
Another proposal I have made before, in Polemical Judo. This one seems worth doing, even in the present case, when Donald Trump has 26 more electoral votes than he needs - and hence has nothing to fear from defections, before the "Electoral College" votes, next month.
Why did I say "Electoral College" in quotes? Because in fact it has never, ever been a 'college' of elected delegates, originally meant to deliberate solemnly and choose the president of the United States after thorough discussion. But that might change!
As I've said before - one zillionaire could change this. Rent a mountaintop luxury hotel. Hire retired Secret Service agents for security and some highly-vetted chefs-de-cuisine. Maybe a string quartet of non-English speakers. For two weeks, the only others who may walk through the doors and stroll the grounds are registered electors.
They can come - or not - if they want. Dine and stroll and no one has any obligation to speak or listen. Or else - completely up to them - they might decide to convene the first actual Electoral College in the history of the Republic. Is there any -- and I mean any -- reason why this would not be legally and morally completely kosher?
Yes, I know. It will guarantee that the following election will see the parties vett their elector slates even more carefully for utter-utter loyalty. As if that isn't already true.
So? In any case, the cost would be chickenfeed and the sheer coolness factor could be... well... diverting from our troubles.
== Other suggestions? ==
You know I got a million of em. And (alas!) so many were already in Polemical Judo.
And already ignored. Because the ideas are unconventional and cross many party clichés. Whatever. Poor Brin.
But these are two that will either be acted upon NEXT WEEK or else (99.999% odds) not at all.
So, next posting I'll dive into that post-mortem of the election. And yes, there will be perspectives you never heard or saw anywhere else. (Care to bet on that?) And some may make you go huh. And some may make you angry.
Good. Like Captain Kirk... you need your pain.
=====
=====
** I made my case about blackmail years ago here: Political Blackmail: The Hidden Danger to Public Servants. And despite Madison Cawthorn and several other high Republicans testifying openly that it is utterly true - honey pots and 'orgies' and sophisticated KGB lompromat - apparently nothing has been done. Nor - apparently - will it be.
Still, there is a third thing I was gonna recommend here...
...that Biden promise sanctuary and a big financial prize for any KGB officer who defects, bringing over the blackmail files! Just making the offer, publicly, might make many people on this planet very, very nervous... and likely result in some orchestrated performances of group window diving in Moscow.
Well-well. One can fantacize it as a coming episode of the Mission Impossible series, at least. Call my agent
*** Several of you spoke of the threat to personal physical safety for the first few to step forward... until the wave of revelation turns the tables and sends blackmailers fleeing for their lives. While it's true that Joe B will no longer be in a position to offer US Government guarantees, allied governments can! Plus new identities etc. Anyway, isn't this fundamentally about heroism? Asking it - in exchange for redemption - from those who might leap at a chance for a path out of treason-hell?
88 comments:
Here's a few things we might agree upon. Or not, its a free country after all.
1.The polls were not to be trusted. I won't say it with the vulgarity of Jon Stewart, but can we agree that they were in general not indicative of outcomes, at least in the Presidential race?
2. The prediction markets got it much closer. This worries me on one level, as they seem amenable to manipulation. Or to insider info. Did some of the major players have the scoop on campaign internal polling? The latter must have been stark.
3. Multiple legal actions - what some call Lawfare - did not consign Trump to the dustbin of history. In fact, perhaps the opposite. Many of you likely hold a Contrary view, but I think that makes this a weapon that goes back into the silos, and that's for the best.
Well, these are things I think some of you might agree with. Or of course, not, as suits you.
Tacitus
*I've been ordered to have a thick skin. Thick skin in Latin is of course Pachyderm, symbol of the Republican party. Hardly appropriate as I am an Independent who often splits tickets, but whatevs.
My 25year old daughter, a childless cat-lady, but pro-Trump, simply refuses to believe that Trump&Co will do what they promised to do: end Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and so on. Considering I support her on my meagre Social Security, she should be afraid, but nope. She just refuses to believe TrumPutin and his billionaire goons are going to do what they promised to do.
And now we have Bird Flu jumping from human to human, much of the disease infecting dairy workers (tho its not called cow flu). Perfect timing for Trump's inauguration in January. RFK, the anti-vaxxer was promised to be put in charge of our Health Agencies.
@Larry Hart, from the last post:
Ok, but the gist of my question is, "How do we persuade without coming off as condescending?" And maybe "What kind of stance wins people over when what they want is for their own party to be in charge while all of the good things I care about get done, but for nothing to get done when my party is doing it?"
I would say: If you don't want to appear condescending, then, don't be. It is first and foremost a thing of your personality. Career politicians often insulate themselves from the people they want to represent, and thus end up in a information silo themselves, as well as the constant self-reassurement that they know what's best for everybody else. From what I gather, Republicans won the worker vote because they could empathize with them, and Dems could not. (At least that's what some commentators said. But I see similar things with our Greens who suffer from a similar reputation.)
But then again, there are many people you will never reach. Rather than "redeeming" them or making your policies watered down so much that no one wants to eat that soup, it might be better to find a solid position and double down on it. Stay authentic, listen, avoid teflonized text block speech.
Welcome back Tacitus. Back to actually contributing. Solid points, though shrugging off the theft of hundreds of classified documents and inciting a riot that killed four people as too trivial for legal action may be disingenuous, when compared to the volcanic legal fury toward Clinton, Obama and HBiden over comparative minutia. Are you saying that a president who shoots someone as an 'official act' is actually immune?
Alas, this posting had two specific topics and - as usual - they are being ignored.
The election wasn’t a landslide, as the ‘84 Reagan re-election was; nor is this as bad as 1861- ‘65. Or 1968.
Pearl Harbor...9-11.
In the last thread, there were naysayers who weren’t applauding Trump—but, rather, only celebrating the negativity involved. Nattering nabobs of negativity; effete corps of impudent...
Hi, going to be my last comment for a while...
1) No, there won't be a gathering of electors. Even if a hypothetical billie ponies up the cash and sends out the invites, nobody's coming. The entire electoral college, stupid and undemocratic as it is, is based on the idea that the state's electors make the state's decision, and nowadays there are provisions in many states that the electors must vote the way the state did (constitutionality questionable, to be determined by whether the result benefits the GQP in the eyes of the corrupt Supreme Court). Except for the fact that it still exists, it's a dead law. It's still in place because, as everyone knows, it magnifies the importance of chunks of the country.
2) Biden's call for a great unveiling. Uh, he could - but could anyone with info be sure they wouldn't be in Gitmo 1/7/25, or already have been defenestrated?
Pappenheimer
P.S. Tacitus, have you had military experience? If Biden had shown TS docs to party guests the way rumpT is alleged to have, and carted whole reams of them home to store in what is basically a resort hotel with inadequate security as he is known to have, I'd have been calling for his impeachment and trial. I used to handle secret docs and if I'd taken any home as 'souvenirs' I'd expect to spend 5-10 in Leavenworth, or 7-11 in Twelveworth, after an exhaustive inquiry into just who I had contact with under some bright lights. That ain't lawfare, that's opsec. My god, the Russians and Chinese must love him. It's like ULTRA, only we are hand delivering.
I don't think the college has any real independence or freedom to direct their votes anyway.
The whistleblower? Well, fingers crossed. Based on recent Australian cases, the system will not tolerate any criticisms of the system. And Biden could only offer protection for a couple of months...
Someone suggested that one of the SCJs could retire now, but I think the GOP Senate will shoot any replacement nomination down just as quickly.
Speaking of 'flyover country', I'm going to provide a link to ten articles of Sarah Kendzior's that she thinks best signposts the last eight years, and what happened on election night.
Kendzior is based in St Louis. She based her anthropology thesis on the functioning of autocracies (specifically Uzbekistan), and has noted that Trump has been using the same confabulatory tactics from the start (and she's published a few books about it). Not surprisingly, she loathes Trump. Yet, she's no fan of the Democrats, who she thinks are the flip side of the same influence, and by that reason have been running out the clock to let Trump off. While I'm inclined to a less extreme opinion (after all, if every politician are on the take from the same side, why are we even having this discussion?), she does make some useful observations. And, if you don't count the Mississippi, she's not based on a coastline.
@Kathy, I don't know the full circumstances of the relationship with your daughter, but my question would be to ask (uncritically) why she considers Trump so trustworthy.
fyi, my 22yo daughter was contemplating a music degree international exchange program this year. She decided against it because of the possibility she could be placed in Michigan, and wasn't keen on being around on election night.
I don't know what to say wrt your specific topics except...
1) Electors are generally chosen for their inclination to vote the way they are TOLD to vote. We accomplish this by picking people who want to have a political future within the party that is sending them. They can all certainly be invited, but I think many would be breaking state laws.
2) I'd like a little light to shine, but I don't think an invitation will do it. I would give Biden bonus points for courage if he issued the invite anyway.
Not ignoring your points, although a J. Biden concerned about his legacy is unlikely to launch any final salvos. I'll just be away for the day and otherwise things I had on my mind would be buried under 100 comments, some on and some off topic.
In a healthy democracy, with a strong and not strongman rule of law, that would be an excellent idea. In an climate where the ruling party uses a mass murdering dictator like Putin as a role model, it will be probably a bad health decision. Better, forward it to the allies in foreign governments.
That said, I believe there are several things Biden could do.
First, commute death sentences of Federal prisoners to life sentences. (That is something I would have done in day one of my administration.) to take away the possibility of another killing spree like after the last time. Maybe there are additional ways for him to spoil the price.
Second, give a farewell speech address to the nation that dark times are ahead, and that it is upon them to shorten the darkness.
Third, he can opt to not cooperate with Trumps transition team. It will be a minor roadblock, but add to the chaos Trump will produce.
Fourth, release every bit of classified information they have on the GOP. Or at least inform allied intel services. (And when we are at it: give allies a last update package containing everything.
Fifth, in the presidential letter, stoke Trumps paranoia vs. his VP, Thiel, Musk. "They will replace you, Donald." Maybe pointing to a piece of classified information they might or might not have.
Oh, and all the silly little things he could do. Bringing paintings, furniture, beds in the nuclear Bunker under the White House.
Making Kamala 47th President a few days before the Resignation by resigning, so that all those 47 Caps and T-Shirts are useless.
And, since he is President until January, 20th, 11:59, he could order a bird-flu related lockdown on all federal grounds a day before Inauguration.
I like your points 1, 4 and 5. I think point 3 is moot - Trump is the one who won't cooperate.
Um.... Trump is (and basically always was) a criminal. The biggest indictment of the US legal system is that he was not already in jail. But stealing top secret information and doing God knows what with it doesn't deserve prosecution? Are you kidding me?
David, by the way I disagree with you about misogyny not having an influence: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/us-voters-kamala-harris-donald-trump-republican?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
The failure of the DoJ to file criminal charges against Trump for J6 right after the Senate failed us was probably the event horizon.
I somehow missed the "onward" on the last post, so I'm a bit behind.
Der Oger:
Second, give a farewell speech address to the nation that dark times are ahead, and that it is upon them to shorten the darkness.
The speech that Charlie Chaplin's character* gives at the end of the 1940 film, The Great Dictator would suffice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7GY1Xg6X20
* The Jewish barber who is accidentally mistaken for Hitler.
Tacitus:
The prediction markets got it much closer. This worries me on one level, as they seem amenable to manipulation.
Yes, the predictions markets are considered more reliable because people are risking real money. The idea is that their bets reflect what they really expect the outcome to be.
But someone with the money of Elon Musk would have no problem risking a few million to game the outcome. Even in economic terms, he might reap more benefit from influencing the election than from winning the bets.
Ultimately, that simply makes the betting markets look as unreliable as the regular polls do today. But there's a window of opportunity to exploit in the meantime.
Multiple legal actions - what some call Lawfare - did not consign Trump to the dustbin of history. In fact, perhaps the opposite. Many of you likely hold a Contrary view, but I think that makes this a weapon that goes back into the silos, and that's for the best.
Are you asserting that the charges brought against Donald J Trump were unfounded, or that actual crimes should be ignored when there's a political angle?
Did you also consider the prosecution of Hunter Biden to be "lawfare"? And whatever happened to that anyway?
If Trump really did shoot someone on Constitution Avenue*, would prosecution of that crime not be called for?
* On Fifth Avenue, it would be a state crime.
The small, normally empty memorial park near my home was packed with a huge Remembrance Day crowd this morning (Nov 11). I wistfully looked southward.
Der Oger:
I would say: If you don't want to appear condescending, then, don't be. It is first and foremost a thing of your personality.
Ok, but I'm getting the idea that telling Republicans that they are wrong about anything is considered condescending.
I see a big difference between insisting that the economy is good when they're feeling pain and insisting that Trump's platform will increase rather than decrease the inflation they care so much about.
@Alfred Differ,
On the chance that you didn't see this response late on the old post, I will try again. Hopefully without screwing up the formatting this time. It's ok if you don't want to respond, but I did want you to see it.
Alfred Differ:
Doesn't matter whether we understand how we 'screwed' them. What matters is their perception of it and whether their friends agree with them about our behavior.
I thank you for reminding me of my better angels, which I will need to reconnect with in time. I'm guessing it will begin happening around Thanksgiving. Right now, I'm feeling simpatico with DP's "screw 'em all", and while I know where I will probably end up, the process can't be rushed any more than getting over an old girlfriend can. Nevertheless, your voice is helpful in that process, as mine was when my daughter suffered her first romantic breakup*.
So what was the question again? :)
Doesn't matter whether we understand how we 'screwed' them. What matters is their perception of it and whether their friends agree with them about our behavior.
It matters that we understand what exactly we did wrong so that we can handle it differently next time around. I can understand that it's unproductive to insist that the economic numbers are great when arguing with someone who is feeling the pinch. Is it also unproductive to point out that tariffs would make inflation worse, not better?
I'm not suggesting we bow meekly and give our blessings to their plans, though. I'm suggesting we should be gaming this to get what we want next time.
Good, solid practical advice that I will need when I'm sane again. Really.
For the record, I know quite a few people who DID intentionally condescend to them. Sanctimony junkies on our side were getting daily fixes.
I'm becoming cognizant of the type of error made by a Reagan official (I forget which one) who doubted there were many poor Americans because when he looked around his own social circle, he didn't see any. I'm realizing I'm guilty of a very similar thing. I was not hearing liberals treating conservatives as if their own concerns didn't matter**, so I assumed that no liberals were doing so.
Sure... the other side did it too... but they won. We need to try something different next time.
Good, practical advice. "We don't win this way. What else can we try?"
It does vex me how well Republicans do game the system to win on our own issues. How many decades were liberals vilified for being anti-war? Now, we lose the public opinion argument because we're "war mongers" in Ukraine***. Apparently, being anti-war is only a good thing when Republicans do it. Or, "You just be against something. To win, you have to be for something." Which does seem to be true for Democrats, but Republicans make a winning strategy about being against something all the time.
Are we just playing badly, or is the game rigged against us with rules that change all the time?
* When my daughter had her first romantic break-up in middle school--by text message, no less--I told her that there'd come a time when it would stop hurting, even though it was impossible to understand that in the moment. I also told her it would be nice to just skip to the end, but that life doesn't work that way, and one must go through the intervening process. Years later she told me how she remembered that advice and appreciated it. Small victories.
** I know we argued that they are wrong, but in the sense of "counter-productive". Like, "The things Trump says he'll do won't fix the problems that you want fixed--in fact in some cases they'll make it worse." If that's condescending, then I don't know how to handle it.
*** Not in Israel, of course. In that war, the peaceniks are still bad.
This was written at least a decade ago, and it's still as true today as the day it was written.
“The salient fact of American politics is that there are fifty to seventy million voters each of who will volunteer to live, with his family, in a cardboard box under an overpass, and cook sparrows on an old curtain rod, if someone would only guarantee that the black, gay, Hispanic, liberal, whatever, in the next box over doesn’t even have a curtain rod, or a sparrow to put on it.”
Davis X. Machina
I’ve trotted out that quote many times. I will never grok that sort of self defeating spite. I freely admit that I hold such people in contempt for their meanness and ignorance, but I desire to avoid them, not hurt them. Even if I could hurt them at no cost to myself.
Maybe the one Billion dollars question is: Why Joe doesn't do it?
Dr Brin is absolutely correct when he states that "Poor zones in America have been net recipients of taxes from cities since 1936, in torrents (and) Gratitude was never asked", the unanswered question being a huge WHY ?
Why is it that the red rural states require federal subsidies & charity at all, especially when these rural 'charity cases' now possess, control and produce the lion's share of our nation's energy, food, water, natural resources & industrial output?
It is for the very same reason that an 8oz (0.25kg) box of minimally processed Cornflakes breakfast cereal costs MORE than a 25kg bushel of corn.
It's because our entire market economy is a vast swindle designed to gaslight & impoverish the rural producer while enriching the urban parasite; and, this vast fraud has become increasingly apparent as both AI & decentralized industry demonstrate that the centralized urban population no longer serves any productive purpose whatsoever.
That said, I will now make myself scarce, as Dr. Brin & the progressive left retreat back into their shattered unreality bubble like little children hiding from imaginary monsters under a blanket.
Amnesty for CRIMINALS who are subject to blackmail? It's already been proven a failure as California Governor Newsom's attempt at 'retail theft amnesty' has only produced a growing epidemic of criminality.
And eliminating the Electoral College? Totally ineffective and 'meh' as our 47th President Trump also won the US popular vote.
To paraphrase Aldous Huxley:
Reality cannot be ignored, except at a price; and the longer the ignorance is persisted in, the higher and more terrible becomes the price that must be paid, and your bill has come due.
Best
2 reasons: 1) Joe at heart is very much the institutionalist. I don’t think that it’s in his nature to buck the system that hard, all the more so because he’s in his 80s now.
2) When he talks about his belief in the innate goodness of the American people (“this isn’t who we are”) I think that he is 100% sincere. I wish that he were right, but the evidence of my eyes and ears say otherwise.
The only thing these states produce are commodity items that are priced globally, they have no pricing power. Oil, wheat, corn, etc are produced globally if you try to overcharge those horrible blue cities will go and buy those commodities on the global market. What's the difference between Ukrainian, Argentinian, Canadian or US wheat?
OTOH, Microsoft, IBM, Pfizer's (Software, Pharmaceuticals, Hardware, Entertainment) products are unique and can only be produced by a specialized and highly educated group of people and therefor they can charge pretty much what they want...
BTW If you have a problem with the oligarchic agro industrial giants(Archer Daniels, Mosanto, Tyson, Cargill, etc) please feel free to put them out of business, but don't blame city dwellers for the bad deals rural farmers made with those companies...
“But stealing top secret information and doing God knows what with it doesn't deserve prosecution?”
Telling the DoJ to flat out lie about election fraud or calling up the GA SecSt to “find” more votes doesn’t cross any red lines with you either?
Bye locum. Though know that this latest was much less-bad, starting with an arguable assertion only 60% wrong and then only devolving into a bunch 70% fals. I believe in encouraging progress.
Thanks to the Michigan Arabs for making Biden cry. Well done. Hope you meant it when you said you knew Trump was worse, but you didn't care.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/11/israel-iran-war-news-gaza-palestine-lebanon
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich welcomed President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral victory Monday, saying that “the time has come” to extend full Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank.
Well, I, for one, believe him.
As long as they give full Israeli Citizenship to all the West Bank residents, I don't see the problem...
@Don,
The "river to the sea" people are going to see one.
@Larry
Which "river to the sea" people? The Jewish ones? or the Palestinian ones? or both?
While I agree that speech is one for the ages, I don't think the context would suit Biden's image (Chaplin deliberately modelled Hitler's rhetorical technique: probably not a look for an outgoing President to emulate)
A few allusions could work, though.
I would dearly love for life to be 'a glorious adventure', rather than the current 'interesting' one.
The American ones who insisted on abandoning Biden and Democrats because of Gaza. If they didn't expect an unleashed Israel to be the result, I don't know what they did think.
If your point is that Israel's hard liners also want to ethnically cleanse the same territory, I won't dispute that. But there's no inconsistency in them preferring Trump to Democrats. The activists on the pro-Palestinian side did great harm to their own cause by preferring Trump to Democrats.
I appreciate the sentiment expressed in the bromide 'this isn't who we are', but a bromide is all it is.
A better way to handle it (especially in the face of repeated bad acts) is to acknowledge that this *is* who we are, but not what we want to be.
OK, I'm back.
LarryH. My point was merely that multiple legal attacks on Trump did not finish him off as a political force. The cases themselves were a mixed bag. The documents case, to address an earlier comment, probably lost a bit of potency in the context of Hillary Clinton's case being dismissed because "no reasonable prosecutor would file charges", and then the trove of docs in Biden's garage getting a pass because he was "an elderly confused man". Now, if there were evidence that Trump, had passed secret info to foreign powers, that would be another thing. Regards the other cases, the Georgia case actually seemed to have substance, so who decided to assign it to libidinous clowns? No, I don't suggest political figures get a free pass. Nor should they be singled out for partisan prosecutions in very amenable venues. If Pete Buttegig becomes a viable candidate going forward I sure don't want him prosecuted for some ancient sodomy law still on the books in a conservative backwater jurisdiction. Sorry to bring up an example of that nature, but OGH still has "Hastert, friend of boys" on some kind of macro key.
I think Hunter Biden should be pardoned too. He can do no further mischief.
I think about how the Clinton campaign was not charged with felonies for misreporting payments for the Steele dossier as legal fees when they were in fact for campaign opposition research...a violation for which the campaign was fined.
Tacitus:
Now, if there were evidence that Trump, had passed secret info to foreign powers, that would be another thing.
"We have hearsay and innuendo, Your Honor, those are kinds of evidence."
Ok, kidding on the square. But seriously, given what we know of the man, I think you need evidence that Trump didn't share secret documents with buyers or blackmailers. That's not the kind of thing Biden or Pence or Hillary would do. It is the kind of thing Trump does all the time. That he wouldn't do so, given the opportunity, is just not plausible.
Nor should they be singled out for partisan prosecutions in very amenable venues.
The venues are where he committed the crimes. If he shot someone on Fifth Avenue, the case should be heard by Aileen Cannon? Because judges in the bag for Trump are the ones who are not "biased" like all the others are?
Tacitus:
I think Hunter Biden should be pardoned too. He can do no further mischief.
And yet, Joe Biden won't do that because he doesn't want even the appearance of impropriety? Does that not speak to the man's character?
Meanwhile, Trump pardoned Mike Flynn and says he'll pardon the Jan 6 insurrectionists for no other reason than they've acted as he likes. He pardoned Blagojevich just because Blago's wife prostrated herself to him. Does that not speak to the man's character?
Do you think Dr Brin's complaint about Hastert is that he had consensual gay sex?
Now, I begin to understand how Trump won.
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Latino Trump voter believes Trump will not deport “family oriented” Latinos since that would be “unfair.”
I'm not sure a few disaffected Latinos (or Palestinians) explain the nationwide shift.
Reading his Bio, "Friend of Turkey" could also be applied...though it wasn't an autocracy then as it is now.
Oh, and let's not forget that there were Reports of four flights of Trump to Epstein's island as well as other contacts.
Shouldn't the courts be biased towards protecting the constitution and the conservation of the rule of law?
Larry, you forgot to point out that, Trump refused to give them back, and as far as I know, has still not given all of them back. The two cases are not remotely the same. The big difference is that Trump acted in bad faith, whereas Clinton and Biden did not.
I said "begin to understand".
@GMT, I admit the campaign finance case is probably the weakest of them all. Mostly because no one actually cares enough about campaign finance laws to be upset about violations. It's like Prohibition that way.
I do wish more credence was given to the classified documents infractions. Because both Biden and Pence were found to have accidentally held onto documents they shouldn't have had, there's a general impression that "Everybody does it and it's no big deal." It's pretty clear that Trump is different from the others in that he likely sold or at least shared information in a way that harmed the intelligence community and the country. The fact that that case ended up in Aileen Cannon's court proves that if God exists, He's engaging in some pretty tough love.
In my opinion (and feel free to correct me on this), you do seem to have a double standard when it comes to Hillary and Trump. Every secretary of state in the internet age has used a private server, but you seem to have a strict, "Many wrongs don't make a right" attitude. Whereas with Trump, it's "Other people have done something vaguely in the same ballpark as what he did, so no biggie."
Sure, each individual example is anecdotal, but still the hits keep on coming.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Nov12-1.html
We say two things as preface to this capsule: (1) We've gotten a lot of nasty e-mail for daring to describe Donald Trump as a fascist, and (2) You are going to see a lot of "Let's talk to Trump voters and understand their mindset" pieces in the next few weeks and months (and maybe years).
The specimen of that genre that is getting all the attention right now is a piece from The Philadelphia Inquirer. Among the voters the paper talked to is a 45-year-old former construction worker named Matt Wolfson, who said of Trump: "He's good and bad. People say he's a dictator. I believe that. I consider him like Hitler. But I voted for the man." Wolfson also explained that he hopes that, in particular, Trump's Hitler-like qualities will cause him to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars. Hm, seems like someone might want to review their history books, with particular attention to the events of September 1, 1939.
Re the two main suggestions:
(1) that some billionaire somehow suborn the electoral college to become a constitutional convention
Three problems -
(1a) Practical - just won't work, as others have pointed out
Electors are chosen to from party loyalists - and its really not hard to find Maga's who are absolutely, completely, not interested in anything Trump didn't say. So your best case scenario is that you can't get a quorum. Your worst case scenario is that, Musk takes up the idea, hosts a convention with none of your scruples, and the electoral college declares itself a constitutional convention, and throws out the 22md amendment ... and for good measure the 23rd, maybe even, to make Musk feel more at home, like the South Africa he grew up in as a kid, the 15th.
(1b) Even if you somehow got the electors to define a new, not-insane, constitution, the people deciding if it is actually legal to do so, and which parts of it could take effect would be the nine members of SCOTUS ... and they are not going to interpret anything in a way that you'd like, and they are perfectly willing to ignore any prior jurisprudence, or, for that matter, a clear reading of any law, amendment, or stanza in the actual constitution, to produce those interpretations that you'd find disgraceful. The only thing holding them back from doing even more damage has been Robert's desire to not be too controversial. Which brings me to
(1c) Bad Judo move.
The most radical wing of the Republican coalition will have a minimum of 2 years in control of all 3 primary levers of us government. But the strict letter of the law, they'll be able to, without any cooperation with democrats, pass anything that doesn't require either a 2/3 majority in the senate, or a constitutional amendment, and the only thing that will be holding them back is how much they think they can get away with, without alienating either the few non-Maga republicans still in the senate/house, or a huge majority of the American people, which basically translates as "without completely violating the way people think the US government traditionally works". Calling into question those traditions - seeming to be in collusion with Republicans to shred those traditions - is the kind of Judo move that leaves you open to being devastated by your opponent.
(2) That Biden offer (or work with allies to offer) amnesty to patriots willing to admit to being blackmailed, and denounce their blackmailers ....
You'd know better than I whether Biden could actually provide US-based amnesty that would actually survive vs an FBI + Justice department + SCOTUS + state court in, say, Missisippi, that are all run by Maga loyalists. But that's asking for some serious bravery.
In terms of allies - no, they couldn't - at least, none with an extradition treaty. From a legal perspective, all the DoJ would have to do to get an extradition from, say, Canada, would be to provide evidence of a crime that is also a crime in Canada (e.g. whatever the patriot confessed to), and promise no capital punishment (or torture). Any Canadian court would leave the niceties of whether a pardon by Biden is valid to SCOTUS.
And at the policy level, November 1956 proved that the US, even under a generally sane administration is willing to do severe damage to its allies in pursuit of objectives that are of secondary national interest. It would take an extremely brave allied government to stand up to Trump over providing political asylum to an Amercian accused of .
well my triangle brackets weren't accepted by the forum --- I do wish this thing had a "preview" button. ... that last sentence should have finished with "accused of [whatever it is that they admitted to and Biden pardoned them for]"
Tony Fisk:
A better way to handle it (especially in the face of repeated bad acts) is to acknowledge that this *is* who we are, but not what we want to be.
I've posted before the narrator's old girlfriend's evaluation of him in Kurt Vonnegut's Jailbird :
"It's all right," she said. "You couldn't help it that you were born without a heart. At least you tried to believe what the people with hearts believed--so you were a good man just the same."
I've claimed that as an accurate description of myself, which might come across as a plea for disagreement, but I actually mean it. I'm not nearly as good a person as I'd like to be, but I do want to be more of one and make some effort to have my better angels win out over my darker impulses. That's one reason I so despise Trumpism. It seems designed to let our id run wild without any "regulation" from ego or superego.
It might be time to apply Vonnegut's description above to America itself.
C-plus,
If by triangle brackets you mean the [shift] characters between the "M" and "?", also sometimes called greater than and less than characters, those are the characters that are used to enclose and identify HTML for the blogger software. When you try to use them for normal text they don't show up.
Stonekettle responds to NY Times op-ed about how Democrats need to address working-class pain instead of wokeness:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Maybe Democrats should address working class pain by voting FOR every Trump policy.
Tariffs? AYE! Tax breaks for the rich? AYE! Lower the corporate tax rate? AYE! Eliminate taxes on tips and overtime? AYE! Eliminate minimum wage? AYE! (all of which will kill Social Security by 2031? AYE!) Eliminate the FED? AYE! Eliminate healthcare? AYE! Maximize shareholder profits? AYE! Drill, Baby, Drill? AYE! Deport 20,000 million workers? AYE! Massively increase the deficit? AYE!
No pain, no gain.
Of course WE'll all suffer right along with the "working class" (i.e. white men without college degrees, which is apparently the ONLY demographic that matters). I'm not arguing that. But it's going to happen anyway, because Democrats have lost it all. House, Senate, White House, Supreme Court.
The Left can't mount any sort of effective resistance whatsoever.
And that's apparently what the "working class" wanted. That's what those 15 million democrats who stayed home, wanted.
So, GIVE it to them.
And give it to them good and hard.
Because so far, nothing else has gotten through to these self-involved assholes. So, give them Trump. Give them all the Trump. Republicans always, every fucking time, wreck the economy. And that's when the alleged "sane" ones are in charge. Trump? It's gonna be a hell of a crash.
Get out of the way and give them what they want.
When they can't blame their "pain" on anyone but Trump, maybe THAT will finally be what it takes.
* * *
Note: I'm not really suggesting Democrats do this, of course. We have to fight for the people we care about, even if it's a losing battle.
But, you know, it's going to happen anyway. Like I said, the left can't mount any sort of actual resistance, not in government anyway, and that's apparently what voters wanted. I can only hope those Democrats who do remain in office are smart enough to make damn sure blame for this new Trump era gets put where it belongs: squarely on Republicans.
Covid-19 had a 0.06% mortality rate
Bird flue has a 50.0% mortality rate.
If Covid had been just a little more deadly, truck drivers would have refused to work.
Grocery stores become empty in 3 days, even without panic buying.
Looks like it is time to go full prepper with MREs, ammo and an off the grid cabin.
Does anyone have any convenient locations for an off the grid survivalist cabin?
The big question is if you go it alone or with a group of like minded people.
Being isolated means you can't get help if you need it. Lot's of ways to die in the wilderness if you are alone.
But being with a group ensures that someone will stab you in the back and take your food and gear.
But what kind of group, paranoid right wing gun nut bunker or lefty hippy commune ecovillage?
Chances of surviving are probably higher in the paranoid right wing bunker.
But your chances of getting laid are much, much higher in the hippie commune.
Actually the Dems can vote against all the bad things and claim, truthfully, that they tried to look out for the people getting what they voted for good and hard.
A historian (Patricia Ireland?) enunciated the 15% jerk rule. Any theory of society that postulates significantly more or less of a given group are jerks is wrong. It looks like she has been proven wrong.
Der Oger 3:28 am:
*
Second, give a farewell speech address to the nation that dark times are ahead, and that it is upon them to shorten the darkness.
*
Shorten the darkness? Where is Hari Seldon when we need him?
I second Flypusher's remark. There is honor in standing up for what is right despite having no power to prevent evil; and there is considerable dishonor in failing to do so, out of spite or collaborationism.
Tony, thanks for your deeply moving – and heart-filled – message.
C-plus:
“t would take an extremely brave allied government to stand up to Trump over providing political asylum to an Amercian accused…”
So? We have brave allies. In any event, the aim is to entice enough of the blackmailed to be BRAVE HEROES. Unlikely, sure. Ut if three or more stepped up, the pattern would entice more and the blackmail ring could be shattered. An outcome that seems worth a try.
Stonekettle may get his wish when RFK Jr blows the bird flu.
---
Tacitus, every complaint you just made was about primness of process. Individually, they have some (small) merit. But overall, it’s lawyering to evade the fact that the US right has become a cesspool. I cite Dennis Hastert as the transition from a merely corrupt political party that still wanted to do politics (under Gingrich) to a gang that has blocked politics IN GENERAL (banning ALL negotiation, ever) while promoting perverts to the highest levels.
BET NOW over the compared rates of convicted child molestors in the two parties. And it preceded Hastert back to Roy Cohn. Is there ANY ratio that would affect your habit of shrugging and shrugging and shrugging?
I don’t give a fig about Hunter Biden. But his black sheepness was balanced by a truly great American, his brother Beau. SHOW US a similar ratio among the kids of gopper leaders, who rant at us moral values then have the parenting outcomes of Palin, MTGreen, Boehbert, Lindsey Graham, Cruz and so many other hypocrites especially Trump.
BUT WHAT MATTERS is that Dems purge their scandals from power. Even going way too far as with Al Franken. YOUR party REWARDS their scandalous. Because, of course, it makes them controllable by blackmail.
Partisan prosecutions my ass. Let’s have light! The promised tax returns, business records, college transcripts, the quashed stories in David Pecker’s safe… shatter the NDAs! One party wants to severely limit NDAs the other utterly depends upon them. And an honest man like you should care about that!
You KNOW your party is a festering sewer of iniquity, yet you lawyer and lawyer and lawyer… and never ask for MORE LIGHT.
So where was the "Democrat cheating"? You promised proof in 2020 and 2024. Suddenly crickets, just because you won. Win or lose, shouldn't you be trotting out proof the Dems TRIED massively? And surely Trump woulda blamed that demonrat effort, if he lost? And - just spitballing here - but um, should we trust THESE results? Since all the swing states but one had GOP administrations running the election?
Oh... Right... hypocrisy. But this IMAGE... wow... Dig up Ronald Reagan and ask him what it means. All heil Putin and his "ex" commissars, rebuilding the USSR and starting where it matters most. Red wave, indeed.
Tony Soprano, the fictitious mob boss of the TV series "The Sopranos", once told his psychiatrist that there are only two outcomes for a high-profile guy like him: dead or in the can. Melfi never had the nerve to ask him, "Which would you prefer?"
Trump has the same problem. He'll dismiss the federal charges, but the state charges remain, and will suffice to put him in the can, come 2028. So which would he prefer? Dead in office, or in the can?
He might try to become president-for-life, but that's just being in the can until death.
One of Trump’s spokesreptiles said that Crimea is “gone”. Which means Donetsk & Luhansk are also Goners.
How can a rump Ukraine be salvaged? NATO membership wouldn’t be enough, nukes would have to be reintroduced onto Ukrainian territory—if Ukraine is to have any chance of surviving.
Sorry that was in response to FB posted showing USA engulfed in a Red Wave.
Does ANYONE expect him to be in office by 2048? This election bvegin's as Elon's and soon become's Thiel's
I agree with you guys. Stonekettle does too (at the end).
I think the point is to accept that that will be a losing battle, and instead of weeping over it, make sure the blame falls where it belongs.
Because of the price of eggs, right?
https://www.threads.net/@cnn/post/DCRlQYQqm5G
A group of people carrying Nazi flags demonstrated outside a community theater performance of “The Diary of Anne Frank” in Livingston County, Michigan, in a display of antisemitism.
answer. This is NOT about Crimea, or even Ukraine. "ex" commissar Putin called the fall of the USSR "history's worst tragedy' and is rebuilding the evil empire, brick by brick, even nationalizing (sovietizing) all russian industries. And actively conquering us.
This is about standing up to pure evil, leading the world oligarchic putsch.
Not about Ukraine??
...what do you think
“brick by brick” means in actuality—not in the abstract?
When he was president, Trump answered a question regarding the negative future impact of Trumponomics by replying,
“I won’t be here.”
Summing up his solipsism. He cares about his family—however, after he is gone, he’ll not be able to do anything for them, except for what he’s left behind for them.
And notice how clever he is:
“won’t be here” could mean out of office, or it could mean deceased. He left it ambiguous. He’s a crafty old so ‘n so.
At this stage I'd say it was the price of eggs that encouraged them.
Attended a couple of zoom webinars last night about how to handle the fallout from Trump's election, with particular emphasis on disonformation (Aus. has an election due next year). For any who are interested, I'll post the recording links when they're available. One of the guest speakers, Erik Petersen, rattled off half a dozen reasons why he thought Harris lost, but prefaced it by saying that a *real* analysis would take until at least February.
Prediction markets worked because the people betting big money innovated. E.g. a French bettor who made $79m from Trump's win, commissioned private polls using the neighbor method(ask people who they think their neighbors will vote for, instead of themselves, to get around the "shy Trump voter" effect): https://www.theblock.co/post/324996/french-polymarket-whale-us-election-profit-france-ban
Russia passes bill banning 'propaganda' promoting childlessness.
The likelihood that this will be *effective* legislation is... not high, but it's another hobnail in the boot used to stamp on Humanity's upturned face.
... and I daresay 'Shady' Vance will be watching the experiment with interest.
The point is that focus on Ukraine pays attention to a tree when the forest is being threatened.
Defending Ukraine's integrity is still necessary.
Tacitus,
Now, if there were evidence that Trump, had passed secret info to foreign powers, that would be another thing.
No. You are failing to understand the security risks involved and then allowing the goalpost to be moved. The case itself was solid. If there were evidence he'd passed those to foreign powers, there would be ANOTHER case to bring against him.
Lets get real. Trump could have offered them on E-Bay to the highest bidder and would not have been sentenced for it.
@Tony, the point of my sarcastic remark is that people who truly voted for Trump because they think he'll bring down grocery costs or cut government spending or some other innocuous reason don't then suddenly feel the need to act out in racist or sexist or antisemitic ways. The bullies were like that already, and they supported Trump for that reason. Or at the very least, it was one of the reasons.
Everyone here knows all that,
the difficulty is communicating outside of our circles; otherwise we are walking echo chambers.
Prediction points! I said Trump has learned to never again appoint any professionals or adults to office, since nearly ALL of the grownups from Trump v.1.0 eventually denounced him. That one fact alone should have decided the election, period.) I predicted ALL his appointments would be unqualified maniacs and most of them controllable by blackmail. Can't verify the latter (yet). But the former is now clear, 100% down the line. And when he starts firing civil servants, we all need to remember two words: General Strike.
Sure, that won't work. Can anything, when we are full tilt into the scenario Heinlein described here? http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2017/03/looking-back-at-heinleins-future.html
Rhyming off Churchill, this time the Old World must come to the rescue of the New. Europe must solve this, bu supporting Ukraine utterly, leading to an end game for Trump's puppetmaster.
2028, not 2048. He'd be a centenarian: not likely. If he does make it that far, then I wouldn't talk about Mule powers: I'd talk about the One Ring.
I have a crackpot theory as to why political Islam is self-destructive:
_Allah is dead._
Read Nietzsche for details.
I still think there will be a revolving door of hirings and firings.
One thing Erik Petersen mentioned last night: there will be a lot of Republicans looking at where the IRA funding went, and developing a sudden reluctance to roll it all back.
That's a D or two more to the chess game Trump is supposed to play.
Who is the general strike supposed to hurt?
Europe must solve this, bu supporting Ukraine utterly, leading to an end game for Trump's puppetmaster.
Sadly, I don't believe that will happen.
There is a chance that Poland and Scandinavia will take a leadership position in supporting Ukraine until we have sorted out who will be in charge in Berlin in spring*. The other European capitals will most likely do nothing, and hope for a miracle.
Of which there is a slight chance happening.
If
a) Zelensky makes Trump believe that they will fight to the bitter end
b) Putin does not give in to Trumps demands an continues humiliating him (like, with the explizit Photos of Melania they published)
Trumps ego might kick in and he doubles down on weapon shipments.
There is an even slighter chance that Russias economy collapses and/or the siloviki try to sort it out among themselves.
But for now, I will assume two things:
Russia will invade the Baltics in the next four years; and
the egg prices will go up here, too. With the same consequences.
*As of now, Friedrich Merz will be Chancellor. Which might be good for Trump and Ukraine, but bad for everyone else.
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