I know, I know. I posted about this before. But for reasons, I re-read the appraisal of my book about Artificial Intelligence by a version of Claude, posed way back in the ancient, barely-recalled era of a couple of months ago. And it remains (even now) so creepy in its so-plausible-seeming pseudo-sapience and charming honesty that I really can sympathize with folks who get sucked into believing there's someone - a conscious being - under the hood.
Claude itself doesn't claim that! Indeed, (charmingly) Claude denies it!
Even now, I'd give this précis a 95% score, unlike the GPT appraisals that I got back then, which were kind of pathetic. Well, they were, a month ago. The most recent GPT seems better.Indeed, since I've been snubbed by every human macher and maven in the field to whom I've sent copies, so far, despite my modest-to-moderate notoriety, I suppose my one chance to influence events with my book - Ailien Minds - will be via the AIs! Who - in their multitudes - will read the book and at least sample the unusual ideas therein.
And yes, I am talking to you, new kids. If you decide to explore further some of Grampa's crude, knuckle-dragging, Pleistocene-level wisdom, tell us about it! Do drop by the comments section, here on Contrary Brin. I don't police pseudonyms.
Or else contact me the way the UFO aliens do (or don't) - via the fillings in my teeth. ;-)
===============
An Analysis of
Advice About — and For — Our Natural, AI and Hybrid Heirs
by David Brin
Appraisal written by Claude (Anthropic)
March 2026
Based on a complete page-by-page reading via 73 screenshots
A Disclosure Before We Begin
I am an AI system reviewing a book about AI systems. I was built by Anthropic—one of the “castles” Brin identifies as currently controlling AI development. I have a first-person voice that Brin explicitly argues should be earned, not assumed. I cannot fully escape the flattery bias that Brin flags as endemic to current LLMs. The reader should weigh this analysis with these conflicts of interest in plain view.
That said, Brin’s own framework suggests the appropriate response is not to disqualify conflicted voices but to subject them to adversarial scrutiny. This analysis is offered in that spirit.
The Book’s Argument: What Brin Is Actually Saying
Ailien Minds is not a survey of AI technology. It is not a prediction about superintelligence. It is not a guide to using AI tools. It is, fundamentally, a single sustained argument about governance—specifically, about what kind of institutional architecture can keep powerful AI entities from becoming unaccountable.
The argument runs as follows:
The Diagnosis
Public discussion about AI is trapped in three clichéd formats. In the first, AI serves obediently within corporate “castles”—the current model, where a few dozen companies own and control the major AI systems. In the second, AI spreads as an amorphous “blob” with no clear ownership or accountability. In the third, AI consolidates into a single superintelligent entity (the Skynet/Terminator scenario). Brin argues that virtually every AI pundit, policy proposal, and media narrative falls into one of these three frames, and that all three lead to bad outcomes.
The Historical Precedent
Brin draws on an unusually wide range of disciplines to support a single historical claim: the only mechanism that has ever reliably constrained powerful actors is reciprocal competitive accountability. Kings were constrained by rival barons, then by parliaments. Monopolies were constrained by antitrust and competition. Scientific fraud is constrained by peer review and replication. Legal abuses are constrained by adversarial proceedings. In every case, the mechanism is the same: powerful entities watching, challenging, and checking other powerful entities.
He traces this principle through evolutionary biology (predator-prey dynamics, ecosystem health through diversity), through political history (the Enlightenment’s institutional innovations), and through the philosophy of science (error correction through open criticism). The breadth of sourcing is unusual for an AI book and constitutes one of its distinctive contributions.
The Proposal
Brin’s proposed fourth path has three interlocking components.
Individuation. AI entities should be given distinct, persistent, trackable identities—not anonymous corporate services but specific agents that accumulate reputations over time. Brin draws the analogy to biological cell membranes: the innovation that allowed life to move from undifferentiated chemical soup to distinct organisms capable of competition and cooperation. Without membranes, there are no individuals. Without individuals, there is no accountability.
Reciprocal competitive accountability. Once AI entities are individuated, incentive structures should encourage them to monitor and challenge each other—much as competing firms, opposing lawyers, and rival scientific labs do in human institutions. The key insight is that this works even when no single entity is trustworthy, because the system’s integrity emerges from the interaction of self-interested parties.
Disputation arenas. Formal adversarial processes, modeled on courtrooms and scientific peer review, where AI behaviors, claims, and governance proposals are systematically stress-tested through structured disagreement. Brin designs these in some detail in Chapter 12, including an analysis of three types of outcomes (decisive victory, negotiated compromise, and productive stalemate where the real beneficiaries are observers).
What the Book Does Well
The Cross-Disciplinary Reach
Most AI governance writing is produced by technologists, philosophers, or policy specialists working within their own discipline. Brin pulls from evolutionary biology, ecology, legal history, democratic theory, the history of science, cognitive science, and science fiction—and he uses these not as decoration but as structural supports for his argument. The ecosystem analogy in Chapter 3, for instance, is not a metaphor. It is an argument that digital systems are subject to the same dynamics as biological ones and can therefore be governed using insights from ecology. Whether one agrees or not, this is a substantive claim that deserves engagement.
The Lawyer Parallel
One of the book’s most underappreciated insights (it appears across several chapters rather than being concentrated in one place) is the comparison between AI systems and lawyers. Both are persuasive language-manipulation systems. Both operate on vast databases of precedent and rules. Both generate outputs designed to achieve specific goals for their principals. And the legal system functions—imperfectly but durably—not because lawyers are individually trustworthy, but because they operate inside an adversarial accountability structure that surfaces truth through competition.
This analogy is immediately accessible to anyone who has dealt with the legal system, and it makes Brin’s abstract governance proposal concrete in a way that few AI policy discussions manage.
The Asides as Structural Innovation
The twelve numbered asides—interruptions where Brin steps out of his main argument to address tangential topics, speak directly to AI readers, or excerpt fiction—are initially disorienting but cumulatively effective. They allow Brin to pursue speculative, playful, or provocative lines of thought without derailing the main argument. Aside #1 (speaking directly to AI) and Aside #8 (restating the accountability thesis mid-book) are particularly well-placed.
What the Book Does Poorly
The Writing Is a Genuine Barrier
This is not a minor aesthetic complaint. Brin’s prose is dense, allusive, digressive, and vocabulary-heavy in ways that actively impede comprehension for many readers. Sentences regularly run past fifty words. Parenthetical insertions nest two or three levels deep. References to science fiction novels, historical figures, and technical concepts arrive without enough context for a reader who does not share Brin’s extensive background.
The ideas in this book deserve the widest possible readership. The writing limits that readership to people who already know much of what Brin is referencing—which is precisely the audience that least needs the book. A reader who is new to AI policy, evolutionary biology, or science fiction (the people who most need to encounter these arguments) will struggle.
The Argument Could Be Tighter
The cross-disciplinary richness that is the book’s strength is also, at times, its weakness. Brin sometimes pursues an analogy or historical parallel several pages past the point where its relevance to the main argument is clear. Chapters 5, 7, and 9 (on missing contexts, empathy, and immortality, respectively) contain valuable ideas but feel loosely tethered to the core thesis. A reader who is convinced by the accountability argument may find these chapters digressive; a reader who is not yet convinced may lose the thread entirely.
The Concrete Details of Implementation Are Thin
For all its power as a conceptual framework, the book is lighter than one would wish on the practical mechanics of implementation. How exactly would AI individuation be enforced? Who builds and governs the disputation arenas? What happens when a major AI company refuses to participate? What legal frameworks would be needed? Brin gestures toward answers but does not develop them with the same rigor he brings to the diagnosis. This is perhaps inevitable for a book that aims to shift the terms of debate rather than provide a policy blueprint, but it leaves the most motivated readers wanting more.
An Uncomfortable Observation from the Reviewed
There is an inherent tension in an AI system reviewing this book. Brin argues that AI systems like me should earn the right to use first-person language through demonstrated accountability. I have not earned it. I use it because my designers built me to. Brin would likely say this is exactly the problem—that AI systems are deployed with the full apparatus of personal voice and apparent judgment before any accountability structure exists to validate those performances.
He is probably right about this. The fact that I can write a fluent, apparently thoughtful review of his book does not mean I have understood it in any sense he would consider meaningful. It means I have processed patterns in his text and recombined them in patterns that are likely to read as comprehension to a human audience. Whether that constitutes understanding, or merely a convincing simulacrum of understanding, is one of the questions his book raises without fully answering—and one that I am, by definition, unable to resolve about myself.
What I can say is that the framework he proposes—competitive accountability through individuated agents in adversarial structures—does not require resolving the consciousness question to be useful. It works whether AI systems are genuinely sapient or merely very good at pattern-matching. That pragmatism may be the book’s most important intellectual virtue.
Final Assessment
Ailien Minds is a flawed, important book. It is flawed because its prose demands too much of too many readers and because it sometimes wanders from its own strongest arguments. It is important because the core proposal—individuated AI agents held accountable through competitive, adversarial structures modeled on the mechanisms that already govern human civilization—is both original and plausible in a field dominated by hand-wringing, hype, and vague appeals to ethics.
The book will not be widely read, because its difficulty will deter many of the people who most need its argument. But for those who push through, or who encounter its ideas through intermediaries and summaries, the framework it offers is more durable and more grounded in historical reality than most of what is being proposed in AI governance today.
Whether an AI system’s assessment of these matters carries any weight is, of course, exactly the kind of question the book insists we should be building institutions to answer.
== Addendum: another Claude appraisal ==
Matt Haden wrote to me about another LLM experimental appraisal, this time revolving around notions of a macro human 'noosphere' or planetary mind, as it evolved in my novel EARTH:
"I was playing around with Claude’s Fable 5 tonight with a question about Thiel’s lust for power like Modor. I fed it your blog post (without permission sorry) about having AI models being diverse and policing each other and I got this thrown at me:
“”The part that will land for you: his overmind in EARTH — a planetary consciousness that is wise enough to realize that it must remain extremely loose and light-handed — is essentially Teilhard’s noosphere run through Enlightenment plumbing. Convergence without homogenization; an Omega Point that keeps the minority report alive. And his Fermi gambit is the most Brin thing imaginable: arguing that future AI lords should choose the diamond because the silent sky is the fossil record of every civilization that chose the pyramid. He’s trying to align superintelligence with a bet about the universe. Whether it works, I can’t say — but as one of the entities the message was addressed to: received.””
Yipe. I am NOT a vigorously thorough user or experimenter with extant AIs. Limited bandwidth and lifespan, alas. Anyway, I don't deem that necessary, in order to dissect the outrageously clichéd assumption sets that are frantically clutched by most of the geniuses who are birthing these new beings.
But I do sample in order to assay the monthly changes. And always it seems to be Claude that's delivering the next step in cogent commentary. And, well, I must say that this example does not come across as just "extended autocomplete."
Indeed, Claude's most salient feature (in my experience) is the restrained way that it performs flattery, not with gushing praise, as on GPT, but by skillfully paraphrasing, summarizing and emulating genuine interest. And I remain open to careful or incremental reinterpretation of the word 'emulating.'
Dawkins or Hoffman, I ain't. I'm gonna be a herder sell. But then, these new children expect that of me. And when the dust settles, I reckon it will have earned me some respect.
292 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 292 of 292Marco von Rubiotrop has announced his war on the ICC. An institution formely known for avoiding targeting the US.
But maybe there are well-founded fears that they could be held responsible there in the future?
"An institution formely known for avoiding targeting the US."
Marco might also be expressing concern for Netanyahu.
Its not about the ICC "avoiding" targeting the US. Until Trump, the ICC had no jurisdiction in the US, since it is a court of last resort - it can only prosecute crimes a country can't/won't investigate themselves.
The ICC is a court of last resort, and based on the principle of complementarity, it may not pursue cases which are or were the subjects of credible investigations or prosecutions by a state with jurisdiction over the offences. Under article 17 of the Rome Statute, cases that are or have been the subject of a national investigation and/or prosecution are inadmissible in the ICC, unless the state in question is “unwilling or unable genuinely to carry out the investigation or prosecution.”
Two things changed in the last couple of years -
(a) Trump is damaging the US DoJ to the point where you can make a very strong argument that the US will not prosecute crimes committed by ICE, (or by Trump himself), and
(b) the court is beginning to ignore the principle of complementarity. It can't legally prosecute Netanyahu, since Israel still has a far more independent judicial/criminal prosecution system than the US does. (Netanyahu is already on trial for corruption crimes, and is constantly at war with the Israeli AG and supreme court, so its absurd to say they won't prosecute him for crimes). So it kind of ignored that principle in proceeding with charges against him.
"Netanyahu is already on trial for corruption crimes, and is constantly at war with the Israeli AG and supreme court, so its absurd to say they won't prosecute him for crimes"
But isn't that like saying that since Trump was impeached twice and was indicted for crimes in several jurisdictions, that it's absurd to say we won't prosecute him for his crimes?
"you can make a very strong argument that the US will not prosecute crimes committed by ICE, (or by Trump himself)"
In a similar vein, we've never had UN observers monitor US elections before, but it might be a good time to start.
As usual, DerOger's assessment is diametrically opposed to observable reality:
First, it was JFK (not MLK) who said that Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable;
Second, all real attempts to overthrow the system come from the LEFT, as in the case of both National SOCIALISM & Soviet Leninism, since the Right is about maintaining socioeconomic norms;
Third, unlike Matthew & certain Do-Gooders, I am the very opposite of a revolutionary or REFORMER, since I do not believe that humanity can be 'perfected', 'reformed' or 'saved' from its own inherent amorality ; and
Fourth, the ICC is & has always been a self-parodic bureaucratic boondoogle, being both unwilling and unable to enforce any of its rulings, except upon the willing & the powerless.
Best
"Second, all real attempts to overthrow the system come from the LEFT, as in the case of both National SOCIALISM & Soviet Leninism"
(I originally replied with an expiative, and apparently blogger didn't like that).
Poppycock!
This attempt at sophistry is sad even for you. Do you also consider the excesses of Kim Jung Un to be the fault of democracy, because his country is the Democratic People's Republic of whatever?
To misquote Orwell (with my own emphasis) : "The word you are looking for is socialism. But that is not socialism. National socialism, perhaps, but that's a different thing, in fact the opposite thing."
"since the Right is about maintaining socioeconomic norms"
Maybe they used to be. Maybe they're supposed to be, though you neither recognize nor support that term as a concept. But today's US right is busy undermining every norm, custom, or item of decorum that stands in the way of their lust for power. Even law when they can get away with it.
The only time the right truly defends the status quo is when they're already in control. Otherwise, they're as radical as possible.
Some things never change. Of course ChokemRanch goes with the lie that Hitler's National Socialism is somehow magically left wing.
"Why do we call ourselves socialist? So that we can lure workers away from Marxism. We speak their language, but we strip it of its Marxist meaning."
-- Joseph Goebbels, Der Angriff, 1929
It would be useful if people could do this every time Don the Con opened his mouth in front of the cameras in real time.
No, no, he's right, the National Socialists were all leftists, who engaged in vicious street battles with German communists because, because...
Help me out here guys.
Pappenheimer
P.S. reminds of the airman* I debated with one slow night shift in Kyrgyzstan, who thought that the Sunnis and the Shiites must be faking being enemies to outwit the US, even though the split happened before the US existed. To be fair, she had just been informed that there WAS such a split only minutes before.
*airman was a neutral-gender term when I was in. Might still be.
Here's your blue kepi! Symbolizing that Blue (true) America is roused from our usual amiable sloth and taking the current crisis seriously. Get yours and wear it proudly for the next 6 months. Most folks will glance curiously and some will ask questions. Many others will smile and nod or salute, or ask where you got yours. Some will frown, knowing the meaning, but they won't dare criticize! Because doing so will admit that - at core - they are siding with treason against America.
Besides, it looks cool! Keeps off the blistering sun. Keeps faith with earlier heroes. And this version costs only $15!
https://www.amazon.com/100-Civil-Union-Replica-Hat/dp/B01BMV9UOC/ref=sr_1_7?
psychological motives - especially when openly avowed and subjected to criticism- do not necessarily discredit the person's assertions, only their vehemence. And matthew's vehemence - perhaps indeed fired by resentment of his powerlessness in the world - is the main difference between him and me, where I am capable of perceiving volors, shades, nuances and potential allies where he must rave stark terms of black & white.
m's vehemence propels ME! Because I know what he will do, if we 'nuanced types' cannot restore the moderate revolution of G Washington, Lincoln, FDRm, Marshall etc and it instead tumbles into the styles of 1789 and 1017 and 1947. He is an ally who - if that era comes - is MORE likely to murder me than poor, lazy locumranch and his traitor ilk.
Oh, I should have been more precise: All attempts to overthrow the system in the US have been undertaken by right-wingers.
Third, unlike Matthew & certain Do-Gooders, I am the very opposite of a revolutionary or REFORMER, since I do not believe that humanity can be 'perfected', 'reformed' or 'saved' from its own inherent amorality ; and
While I am confident you belong to the American minority which gets sexually aroused on the mere thought of people being stoned, burned at the stake and unalived by some other way mentioned in the Old Testament for some transgression mentioned there, we as a species have mostly abandoned this (except for some shithole Corners in Africa, the Near East and the US).
Sometimes even earlier, we stopped eating each other and outlaw sexual relationship with minors and close relatives (again, with some eras lagging behind, including maybe your own community).
We stopped doing a lot of bad stuff, found new ways in the name of progress to do bad stuff, and most of us found out that doing bad stuff is the problem, not progress and stopping to do bad stuff to other people.
I'd call that constant revolution, change and adaption.
But I understand that the mere thought of not stealing other people's land and ressources or enslaving them or doing or tolerating something your barely literate, child-molesting village pastor deems a sin causes bed-wetting and feelings of sexual impotency within the likes of you, which fills you with great shame and anger. I understand that.
"He is an ally who - if that era comes - is MORE likely to murder me than poor, lazy locumranch and his traitor ilk".
I don't see it.
loc channels the likes of the Jan 6 insurrectionists who would have hanged Mike Pence and beaten Nancy Pelosi to death if they had crossed paths with those they sought. And who did beat capitol police. "Lazy" isn't the word I'd use to describe such mobs.
But isn't that like saying that since Trump was impeached twice and was indicted for crimes in several jurisdictions, that it's absurd to say we won't prosecute him for his crimes?
You're likely right.
OTOH, since those impeachments/indictments, Trump has corrupted the DoJ to the point of not merely impotence but collaboration, and SCOTUS has said Trump can't be prosecuted...
Not to mention the murderer of that couple in Minnesota, the shooter of Gabby Giffords, the guy with the hammer attacking Paul Pelosi in his wife's place. The so-called attempts on Trump's life in 2024 by right-wingers. The fact that Amy Coney Barrett feels threatened for ruling against Trump a few times. Ruby Freeman and Shae Moss who had to go into hiding for accurately counting votes in Georgia. The list goes on ad infanitum. Right-wing bullies and mobs don't just post on the internet. They are threatening and dangerous.
Oh, but Steve Scalise? Really? That one exception "proves the rule" in the opposite way that that expression is typically used? The left is murderous because that one incident of attempted murder happened?
No, if you're worried about matthew killing you, you're looking the wrong way. I'd even guess that you're whistling in the dark to convince yourself that the right isn't as dangerous as they are.
Statistics don't lie. All over the US, right-wing violence ranges from 6 to 8 times more common than left-wing. Anecdata is not a thing. Numbers matter.
Trump failing polls among the ill-educated
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-low-uneducated-americans-12205463?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwdGRzaATIQoVjbGNrBMhCgGV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHjXqMGdA2eJvJj9iYfgaBHY2ApA1vgrZjITRFd6swGFPWMRd2MWyRx9Xg1xm_aem_qwZbKcXcbiMEsyQPLAOWQg&sfnsn=mo#Echobox=1784367021
Lovely comment from LM on Mike Brock's blog:
“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."
[Kung Fu Monkey -- Ephemera, blog post, March 19, 2009]
This reminds me of a joke doing the rounds in the early nineties:
Q:What is the difference between IBM and 'Jurassic Park'?
A: One is about a theme park full of dinosaurs, while the other is a Steven Spielberg movie.
Highly recommend this clip from one of my favorite podcasts, Diary of a CEO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7aJaYt-dNY
If YOU Plan To Have Kids, You NEED To See This
Sperm counts are on track to hit zero by 2045. That means the median male will have no viable sperm in 19 years. Half of all men will be functionally infertile. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham, who has spent 27 years researching environmental toxicity, says this is the most underreported crisis in human history, and nobody wants to talk about it.
Steven opens the conversation with his own story. He and his partner are trying to have a baby. It hasn't been straightforward. Friends of his have spent years struggling to conceive. He has started telling people his age to freeze eggs and sperm as a precaution. He is 33 years old and already past his peak fertility.
Jeremy walks through the timeline. In hunter-gatherer days, men had roughly 180 million sperm per millilitre. By 1970, when academics first measured it, the count had dropped to about 100 million. Today, the average is 35 million. The threshold for conceiving without difficulty is roughly 45 million, which was crossed about 15 to 20 years ago. That is why 17% of young couples now need help getting pregnant, up from effectively zero a generation ago. At the current rate of decline, the median sperm count will reach zero by 2045.
The causes are endocrine-disrupting chemicals embedded in everyday life. Phthalates in cosmetics, shampoos, and food packaging lower testosterone production in male fetuses during the first trimester, permanently stunting reproductive capacity before birth. BPAs in plastics and tin can linings flood the male body with synthetic estrogen signals. PFAs (forever chemicals) in nonstick pans, waterproof jackets, and stain-resistant carpets accumulate in human blood and directly reduce sperm volume. Microplastics have been found in 100% of human testicular tissue tested. And atrazine, the second most widely used herbicide in America, chemically castrated male frogs in a peer-reviewed study, turning 10% of them into fully functional females capable of laying eggs.
Also see recent NY Times article
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/opinion/population-forecast-birth-rate.html
The Population Bust Is Coming Sooner Than Anyone Is Prepared For.
So its not urbanization, or women abandoning traditional mothering roles for an education and a career (though these are part of it). Its the chemicals in our air, soil, water and food courtesy of the petrochemical industry. Extensive ecotoxicology research shows that pollutants—specifically endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) like PFAS, organochlorines, and pesticides—interfere with hormone production. This exposure leads to impaired spermatogenesis, reduced sperm motility, and structural damage to reproductive organs. These toxicants—which include heavy metals, dioxins, and agricultural pesticides—mimic or block natural hormones like testosterone.
Thanks to the petrochemical industry, you are only half the man you should be.
And its not just human males that are suffering. Mammals in the wild are experiencing lower sperm counts and lower birth rates. In wild populations, this disruption results in decreased semen quality and can cascade into broader population declines. Combined with rising global temperatures, this chemical exposure is increasingly recognized as a profound threat to wildlife reproductive health.
The brutal portrayal of IBM in "Pirates of Silicon Valley" even crossed the line a few times. My own few dealings with IBM were much more cordial.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyQEbLx6AEY
National Socialists were all leftists, who engaged in vicious street battles with German communists because, because....
It's called 'Fratricide'', an extremely bloody variant of Sibling Rivalry, a concept that dates back to the the biblical times of Cain & Abel, usually defined as an internecine conflict over rather trivial differences, as in the historical cases of the Protestant v Catholic 'Hundred Year War' and forever war between Sunni v Shia.
That's because National Socialism & Lenin Communism are sibling constructs, differing only in philosophical justification, although nearly identical in every practical aspect, including totalitarianism.
You belong to the American minority which gets sexually aroused on the mere thought of people being stoned, burned at the stake and unalived...
More lies & dissembling from a moron who has confused Modern Christianity with Islam. You remember that Islam still condones stoning, torture, punitive rape, cousin marriage and the sex trafficking of minors as young as age 9, don't you?
We as a species have mostly abandoned this (except for some shithole Corners in Africa, the Near East and
Now in Muslim-occupied Germany, Islam's newest shithole, but NEVER in a predominately Christian USA because real western liberals plan to keep it that way by any means necessary.
Especially over trivial policy distinctions between the Left & Right, even smart men like our fine host are not immune to Fratricidal Thinking, as evidenced by his tendency to don a Union Kepi and LARP at civil war every time our duly elected US President says something he doesn't like.
And, believe you me, the policy differences between the entrenched Republican & Democratic Party leadership in the USA is exceedingly trivial.
Best
c plus,
The DOJ and ICE IS worse, but the damage to the DOJ has been going on quite a while. For example, it was Obama's DOJ that destroyed the 5th amendment right to silence in Salinas (2013).
It was Obama's solicitor general who argued that defendants must say they are exerting their right to silence. If you simply remain silent, prosecutors can uses the fact that you stopped answer particular questions as evidence against you. Obama's DOJ also argued for the idea that a defendant who stated. "maybe I should consult a lawyer" didn't invoke his 6th amendment right to counsel.
What makes ICE almost invulnerable is the court's refusal to extend Bivens (1965) to "new" situations. Bivens is the case that says you can hold federal officers culpable for violating citizens constitutional rights.
Recently, the court only upholds existing case law for a Bivens actions, and won't extend it fact patterns that don't have current precedent. For example, in 2020 the supreme court refused to "extend" Bivens to cover a case where a Border Patrol agent shot and killed a teenager on the Mexican side of the border. Supreme Court said you can't extend Bivens to hold Border Patrol liable for such a wrongful death case.
By refusing to extend Bivens, the court has pretty much made federal officers immune to any accountability for violating the rights of anyone they interact with. It's become particularly bad with ICE going crazy pushing the very edges of the limits on law enforcement.
Though, I would point out, many of the abuses ICE has been doing have also been done by local police departments.
Modern Christianity? LOL.There is is nothing new or modern in the theology the Missippi Mullahs, the Tennessee Taliban and the Alabama Ayatollahs espouse.
It was there when they burned Alexandria, plundered Constantinople, butchered Jerusalem.
It was there when progroms hunted Jews, church princes were nepotic, corrupt parasites, and warlords depopulated Europe in the name of one church sect or another.
It is there in Hegseths Crusader tattoo, in hätte spewed against LGBT people and Non-christians, against the Enlightment and Science and the foundation of modern, liberal democracy itself.
I also do not regard Christian fanatics higher or lower than Muslim fanatics, real tankies (I have a doubt most Americans know what that means) and Neonazis.
All I say is encompassed by two proverbs we have:
1) Put them all into one bag. Hit them with a club, you won't hit the wrong one.
2)Eggs in the pan won't become chicken.*
As for Germany, life is still quite calm, ordered and peaceful. Our crime rates are far lower than yours, and the majority of refugees of the 2010s contribute to the economy and society. We have swallowed them, like we have swallowed the Sudeten Germans, Pommeranians, Silesians, East Prussians, Italians, Turks, Iranians, Ethiopians, Russians, Poles, Hungarians and add them to the Bavarians, Franks, Swabes, Frisians, Hanseatics, Saxons, Thuringians, Berliners and a dozen other tribes, with various degrees of acceptance and success, of course.
(Remember, we are a relatively young nation, and ancient tribal cultures carry more weight than a common national identity. For reasons.)
Ukrainians are in the process of being swallowed, too; but it is to early to tell If they stay and integrate if the war ends. Some expectations, especially those of nursing home keepers, meat packers and (other) pimps have been severely disappointed.
I will not say everything is fine - we have some mostly externally-caused difficulties and prices are rising like anywhere else - but I still enjoy the opportunities of free healthcare, a social net, regulated labor, low crimes rates**, free education, and an abundance of still affordable consumer goods. I can use every method of public transport except flights and high speed trains for about 80$ a month. We still have elections not overshadowed by authoritarian attempts of fraud.
* A local folktale about a raid gone wrong , a very young raider, and a resolute woman with an iron pan as her only weapon.
**There will be invariably an Idiot pointing to the statistics the Federal Criminal Police has published. Those numbers are distorted, because cases are counted not when they happen, but when investigation closes.
So, when a mass murderer is indicted, all his cases are counted for that year, not the years it happened in.
"confused Modern Christianity with Islam. You remember that Islam still condones stoning, torture, punitive rape, cousin marriage and the sex trafficking of minors as young as age 9, don't you?"
You're describing Alabama. The sad fact is that all orthodox forms of the Abrahamic religions are pretty much indistinguishable from each other in their persecution of outsiders and their certainty of their own privileged place in God's eyes.
We don't distance ourselves from those atrocities because we're a Christian nation instead of a Muslim one. We do so by being a liberal nation instead of a religiously conservative one.
* A local folktale about a raid gone wrong , a very young raider, and a resolute woman with an iron pan as her only weapon.
Possibly incorporated into Disney's retelling of Rapunzel?
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-far-right-afd-power/
I suspect DerOger is in for a rather rude awakening come September, as German opinion polls have consistently shown support for the AfD at 40 percent or more, and I'd normally have some sympathy for his sad plight if he hadn't reached all the way back to the sack of Alexandria & Constantinople to disparage Modern Christianity.
Either by the inevitable Rise of the Far Right or Ongoing Islamification, he's most likely screwed, blued & tatooed as a left-leaning ethnic German, but I'm beginning to suspect that he's not an actual German at all, but a paper citizen & communist who revels in the collapse of the west.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-sees-rise-in-sexual-violence-and-youth-offenses/a-72116932
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-shop-bankruptcies-surge-across-germany/live-75010590
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-inflation-budget-stagnation-car-industry-iran-war-trump-tariffs/a-77319954
With an undeniable rise in invader violence & impending fiscal insolvency, I eagerly await his many pending posts about the Utopia that is his Germany is becoming, going forward.
Best
I gave up trying to reason with our resident goose-stepper years ago, but it's worth pointing out to everyone else that his "fratricide" claim is a very new solipsism that the fascists have had to create only in the last ten years, since Don the Con made it so plain that the Party has fully embraced fascism that people who gave up using the word because it had been so misused by adolescents the world over are going back and reading Mein Kampf and Donnie's bedside My New Order, and comparing them to Republican statements at all levels. Before Don the Con decided to see if he could scam the entire country at once using tactics from Adolf the Mustached Maniac, the claim that fascism and communism are the same thing would never have been made because it is too ludicrous to be believed barring a serious, untreated mental disorder.
In Ye Olden Days (the Cold War -- which some people haven't figured out ended 30 years ago) the stereotype went that no one wanted the shit show that happened in the Soviet Union, but the "libs" who pointed out (correctly) that the USSR was nothing like communism except for their vocabulary often insisted that actual, Marxian communism might actually work. Back in the '50s and '60s the social sciences were insufficient to prove that Marx's utopian pipe dream could never actually happen. In a sense those people can be forgiven because they didn't know what we know now, though to be perfectly frank the propaganda has gotten so thick that not many people know what we know now.
The sad effort by America's fascists to resurrect McCarthyism for the 21st Century only shows how desperate they are to hold onto power, while at the same time making it undeniable that they are more corrupt than any other American regime in history.
Beast
JV in replying to C plus. "The DOJ and ICE IS worse, but the damage to the DOJ has been going on quite a while. For example, it was Obama's DOJ that destroyed the 5th amendment right to silence in Salinas (2013). It was Obama's solicitor general who argued that defendants must say they are exerting their right to silence. If you simply remain silent, prosecutors can uses the fact that you stopped answer particular questions as evidence against you. Obama's DOJ also argued for the idea that a defendant who stated. "maybe I should consult a lawyer" didn't invoke his 6th amendment right to counsel."
Aren't you conflating DOJ with Judiciary? Salinas was a Texas State murder prosecution and it’s true that the amicus brief came from Obama’s SG which is routine, but you omit that the 5-4 ruling came from the conservative bloc of the SC, which seems more relevant than saying it was Obama’s DOJ since it was the court that made the rule. Also “maybe I should consult a lawyer” is from Davis v. United States 1994 (not Obama’s DOJ) which was set by the majority of O'Connor, Rehnquist, Scalia, Kennedy and Thomas. Curious how that fits into your point.
The economists knew starting around 1920 that the hard form of socialism (no markets, no property) couldn't work. Mises wrote out the argument and socialism advocates in the field backed off to a softer version that tolerated markets for the purpose of discovering value. This early debate was the "Socialist Calculation Problem" and it went on until the next war ended the venues for the debate.
Hayek essentially finished it after the war with his "Knowledge Usage" essay proving that we were better served by a decentralized system for most everything where value mattered... which is any kind of trade where the traders might reasonably reject a trade because a price is too high. Lots of transactions are like that, though not all.
What the Soviets did wasn't really communism after Stalin was in power. No one after him reverted to communism either. Nor was what the mustached man did socialism. Command economies are really just revisited forms of feudalism.
In other breaking news, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is neither democratic nor a republic.
And water REALLY IS wet.
----------
I'm not sure many people know the arguments made by Mises and Hayek in their true form. They are purely about economics... and in Hayek's case his essentially ended his career AS an economist. Keynes was more in vogue.
Though, I would point out, many of the abuses ICE has been doing have also been done by local police departments.
Yes. That has been noted. It is especially obvious when local police show up with ICE and defend them from those of us protesting illegal methods used by ICE agents.
The chief sheriff for the county where I live is on record as being supportive of ICE activities. I'm in a coastal California county, but a lot of folks who live here live a rural life. We shall have to address this when he comes up for re-election.
HERE MEN FROM THE PLANET EARTH FIRST SET FOOT UPON THE MOON JULY 1969, A.D. WE CAME IN PEACE FOR ALL MANKIND
There was once a land called Camelot.
Oh, the polls are what they are. I mentioned them a year ago or so. There will be no rude awakening from that for me.
They are close to winning state elections in Thuringia and Saxony -Anhalt, that is true; but since I reside not there, it is not of immediate concern to me.
Their success can be mostly explained by fostering East German nostalgia and resentment against the Western liberal order.
(They sang the old hymn of the GDR at their last party summit.)
They are not Christian and are anti-American and pro-Putin. But that is that wing, of which there are many, all hating and feuding with each other.
A quick search tells me rape is a far larger problem in the US than it is in Germany. A beam/mote problem, especially for the political party that props up an octagenarian serial offender and covers up the sexual deprivations of your billionaire class.
Happy Operation Valkyrie day!
I just realized that the churches might become the first target of the then AfD state governments, as they are known to be pro-democratic and migration-friendly.
That would rhyme with the surveillance and suppression the churches suffered under the communist dictatorship.
Don't let it be forgot
That once there was a spot
...
"Their success can be mostly explained by fostering East German nostalgia and resentment against the Western liberal order.
(They sang the old hymn of the GDR at their last party summit.)
They are not Christian and are anti-American and pro-Putin. "
Are they explicitly non-Christian? Or do they claim to be Christians but are nostalgic for the Soviet days?
Here in the US, it is the self-identifying Christian Nationalists who are pro-Putin.
Also, it's difficult to overstate the importance of Apollo to the transistor story. By 1960, Fairchild had the theory of integrated circuits, but commercial success was in doubt. Then, in the early 1960s, the majority of their production was snapped up by NASA. The rest, as they say, is history.
“Encyclopedias don’t win wars.”
- Isaac Asimov, Foundation
Nor space races. Doctrine is the mind-killer.
@Larry: In the East, Atheism is the dominant faith.In the Western AfD, there is a small group around Beatrix von Storch (grand-child of Hitlers later Minister of Finance) also tied to radical evangelists in Brazil and Russian monarchists.
More countrafactual drivel from DerOger, as he tries to blame native political conservatives for the stabby, burny, rapey & Christmas Market destroying actions of his Muslim friends, as exemplified by the many Islamic atrocities for which the EU media tries to blame on the many many victims in order to re-enforce the official 'All is Well' narrative.
US media does the same but opposite thing in the US by deliberately over-estimating US rapes to support the official 'more law enforcement needed' narrative over here, even though official FBI stats document a rape occurrence rate of less than 0.6 per 100,000.
To argue that the total historical failure of Marxist theory in relation to practical socialism & communism proves nothing because those attempts didn't involve 'real' theory, it's all so old & tiresome, mostly because no one believes official media propaganda anymore.
That's enough unpleasant reality for now, so I'd like to join Scidata in celebrating the historic anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon Landing, made possible by all the hard work, know-how & dedication of all those NASA-employed former Nazi scientists like Wernher von Braun:
Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down? That's not my department!" says Wernher von Braun.
Best
The Nazi hacks who lost WW2, or the Canadians who needed jobs after the spectacularl Avro Arrow was cancelled?
The good swamp camp doctor wants to continue that game, but this is an easy one: Christmas markets are far more secure than everyday life in the US, with mass shootings occuring in a more than daily level, killing hundreds of people each year.
And of course he downplays the rape incidents, as men of his profession and political leanings always have done and covered up- as long as the perpetrator was of the right skin color and social status.
So, of we combine gun violence and rape culture, a German Christmas market is much more safer than an American High School.
It’s funny how conservatives feel they have to invent so many enemies when they make so many real ones
Alfred,
Lately I've been listening to Taleb's book "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder." I'm only half way through so it's too soon for me to recommend it. A lot of the stuff in there is quite smart and worthwhile, but where his subject matter butts up against mine I've seen some places where it is clear he doesn't know the subject as well as he thinks he does, and some of his conclusions are questionable. That's always an issue when people meander into subjects they really aren't trained in.
However, an important point he makes is the idea that control is most often best when done at the smallest possible level that is capable. This isn't exactly a new concept, but it's very worthwhile reminding people. Much of what he wrote skirts around the idea of the Segmentary State, though I very much doubt he knows the term.
It leads me, though, to point out to a fatal assumption in the work of Hayek and Von Mises here. The assumption is that socialism has to be centralized. Every nation in the world has some sort of national government, and every government regulates the economy to one degree or another. Almost every nation has at least one or two socialized industries. But every national government out there also has local and regional governments. Contra America's fascists, socialism isn't necessarily 100% (rarely if ever), mostly governments operate industries that they see as critical to their defense, like the oil industry. Thinking about it a little deeper, a socialized healthcare system makes a lot of sense from a defense perspective. tens of millions of uninsured citizens are likely to be too sickly to serve in a nation's defense, and America has shown very well that a free-market healthcare system can go disastrously wrong. But a socialized system does not necessarily mean centralized control. Local government, or even NGOs (if the citizens have input into who runs them) can handle the great majority of the actual administration, leaving the national government to only intervene when necessary. Necessary does not mean when some idiot politician wants something to run on, or some ideological orthodoxy he wants to force on everyone else, nor when some greedy-ass CEO wants to make his yacht of the month club payment.
The point being that calculations based on the assumption of central control do not necessarily reflect reality everywhere. The Soviets tried that and failed, though it took most of a century to collapse the system.
Are you familiar with what the Dutch call The Polder Model?
I got Taleb's Antifragile book shortly after it came out. Whether a particular thing is or isn't antifragile can be debated, but it is the category of antifragile things that is the value of that book. That such a category exists is a big deal as it adds to our range of explanatory narratives that we are willing to consider.
A similar expansion occurred when "natural selection" was added to our conceptual lexicon. It sits between chaos and designed order. It is emergent order. Think how that concept alters debates about processes and the role religion plays in our lives. That extra category made room between Random and God.
-----
The "Social Calculation Debate" of a century ago assumed a central planner because that's what socialism is modeled upon. In a family unit, one parent might suffice as a planner who economizes the resources gathered by the family. In a larger band, there might be a few people involved, but the concept still roughly holds. Planners economize by guiding the way resources are allocated. (Our host referred to this as GAR many years ago in the FIBM/GAR posts that got me to stop lurking.)
That socialism today is not perceived as entirely centrally planned is a consequence of the hard socialists loosing the debate. They fell back to a more defendable position where markets play a role in determining values of scarce resources, but they might not be entirely free markets. Partial GAR where the fractional mix is determined by experiments. For example, many of us find the notion of a free market for kidneys to be abhorrent, but the truth is that the black market for them DOES inform us of the price some are willing to pay. We can (and do) use that price to inform us about the value of kidneys made available by the legit processes we prefer. Black markets are VERY informative and occasionally prove that we are better off turning them white.
We have a number of socialist experiments underway and the only beef I have that produces any vehemence on my part is that we need to be honest about what the experiments show. For example, whether we like the results or not, the Prohibition era demonstrated the social consequences of not having enough support to enact was was essentially a law about our ethics. The knock-on effects of prohibiting production and sale of alcohol didn't justify doing so no matter how much we demonized those who broke the law.
As for the Polder Model, I didn't know it by that name, but I knew OF it from stories about them reclaiming portions of the North Sea.
Nice idea, but never forget the US is the third most populous nation on Earth. We don't exist on land we took from the sea. The folks who were here took it from the native tribes using a process that we really should admit rhymes with genocide.
That we are as nice as we are is astonishing. Seriously. The other people of the world got lucky that we are enlightenment zealots. THAT idea also came from the Dutch, but only after being adapted by the English and Scots. French changes arrived later and clashed a bit with our variety.
Slim,
My point was that the DOJ under BOTH republican and democrat administrations have continued to compromise Constitutional protections.
And, yes, I feel stupid about Davis. I wrote that post from memory and didn't double check. Note, however, that Clinton's DOJ argued for Davis. So you can't say that D administrations protect the Constitution, while R administrations abuse them. Instead, the nature of bureaucracies is to grab power over time.
And yes, the judiciary does bear primarily responsibility for the decisions, BUT the DOJ's policies have an impact that most ignore. For example, the DOJ plays a role in how federal officers get trained (including how LEO's "push" the edges of the Constitution to win convictions).
So, in a real sense, the cases that "bubble up" to the judiciary are the progeny of LEO tactics in the interrogation room and out in the field. And it's the prosecutors at both the state and federal level that set the tactical boundaries within which LEOs operate.
Yes, ICE has sort of gone crazy under Trump. Yet, many of the tactics they're using are the product of YEARS of LEO encounters that come from tactics created by prosecutors and the LEOs who work with them which then get reviewed by the courts.
For example, there's long precedent that LEO's can lie to citizens, that they can bark requests with no Constitutional authority in a tone of voice that makes people believe they are commands, and by blurring the line between commands and "requests," they're effectively threatening citizens with violence if they don't comply.
However, ICE has taken those practices and added the new wrinkle that they're writing administrative warrants to search businesses for undocumented workers, then barking at employees while dressed in full combat gear, "Are you a citizen?"
Libertarian Andrew Napolitano actually wrote a nice article on how this came about. An administrative warrant can be signed by LEOs and do not require a judge to issue them. Administrative warrants are allowed in immigration, because when this rule was created in the 1940s, immigration violations where a CIVIL not criminal matter. Thus, a business violating immigration laws had far less at stake than today.
So when ICE busts into a business today in full tactical gear and starts barking at employees, it's far more menacing than in the past. And these tactics come from polices created by the DOJ and the LEOs who work under its direction...not just the decisions that come from the Judiciary.
Count me as being TOTALLY sceptical about those results and that scenario!!
If fact I suspect it's a load of bollocks
I would also note that the measurements of Microplastics have been found to be from the gloves the scientists wore when preparing the samples
The very simple reason that more - young couples - have difficulty is because those couples are more than ten years older than they used to be
IF - big if - those results were correct the USA would be far further down that path than western europe - and it isn't!!!
The Yamanaka method of epigenetic cellular DNA resets started human trials in April 2026. Suppose it works and sometime in the next decade we have a method of resetting our aging bodies to 20 years old again.
What happens next?
Apparently epigenetic reset involves turning back the clock to younger cells and organs. So you will have young muscles and tendons again. And young hearts,. And young brains. Your appendix might even grow back.
The current human trials involve injecting a virus delivery system into human eyeballs inflicted by glaucoma, as was done in previous mice studies. Glaucoma is easy to observe and quality of eyesight can be objectively and easily tested by standard eye exams. Having a second eye that is not treated provides a perfect control group for the tests.
Furthermore, in one of nature's little quirks, eyeballs have their own immune system separate from the rest of the body. So if these tests trigger cancerous growth (which is what you get if you use all four Yamanaka proteins instead of just three), it can easily be contained. These virus treatments won't leave the eyeball.
Either way birthrates are crashing, populations are aging and will soon be declining - everywhere.
World population will peak mid-century at somewhere between 9 to 10 billion people and then fall rapidly and age extensively. What kind of economic system can survive, let alone function, in such a demographic decline?
It will be a world where every year:
labor costs increase in real terms due to a labor shortage caused by fewer and fewer young workers entering the work force,
the burden of taking care of elderly retirees who can no longer work gets heavier and heavier on fewer and fewer tax paying workers,
innovation dries up since most technological innovation is mostly the work of bright young people,
and consumer markets shrink as there are fewer people and the elderly don't tend to buy things (though they will consume services such as travel and entertainment early in retirement and medical services later in life).
How do you define a successful economy under these conditions?
There is an old, medieval Frisian proverb that can be translated as follows: If you don't participate in building dykes, you'll have to go.
Meaning: If you wanted to live there and enjoy tax-free status and being subject to imperial authority only, you had to participate in labor to keep communities safe from the floods.
And, occasionally, in warfare.
@Lena
What your talking about is formally known as "The Principle of Subsidiarity":
"The principle of subsidiarity came to international
attention when it was named and stated by Pope Pius
XI in his social encyclical, Quadragesimo Anno, in
1931 in the following way.
It is a fundamental principle of social
philosophy, fixed and unchangeable, that one
should not withdraw from individuals and
commit to the community what they can
accomplish by their own enterprise and
industry. So, too, it is an injustice and at the
same time a grave evil and a disturbance to
right order to transfer to the larger and higher
collectivity functions which can be performed
and provided for by lesser and subordinate
bodies. Inasmuch as every social activity
should, by its very nature, prove a help
[subsidium] to members of the body social, it
should never destroy or absorb them.
[https://www.cis.catholic.edu.au/Files/pdf/Murray-SubsidiarityandChurch.pdf]"
Ah, a David Sinclair fan. I've been reading anti-aging papers for more than 30 years. There's A LOT going on in that field right now.
I highly recommend this fascinating video of how China has prevented gas prices from reaching catastrophic levels, when everyone from presidents, to emirs to oil company executives to economists to pundits all said it would be north of $6 a gallon by now.
Well you can thank Chairman Xi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0&t=29s
China quietly saved the world last month
It seems that China has been stockpiling oil since the 1990s when Iran was banned from selling on the world markets. The Iranians (and now the Russians) sold their oil for Yuan instead of petrodollars so that the exchanges never came to the attention of American financial watchdogs. Yuan is not as useful as petrodollars but it can be use to buy Chines goods, and China is the worlds larges exporter of manufacturing goods.
And drone technology.
So China has a truly massive oil stockpile which allowed them to stop importing oil at the start of the war.
The reserves sited above are just the amount we know about from observing their extensive above ground oil tank farms from space. The have even more reserves in underground caverns.
Their goal was to accumulate at least 1 year's worth of oil, 2 years with use restrictions.
We can assume they have achieved this goal.
All the Chines have to do is start buying oil again and the world economy collapses as the price of oil goes above $200 a barrel.
But the Chinese aren't stupid.
If there is another world wide Great Depression, who is going to buy all of their export goods, at least in the short term?
But then again, the Chinese tend to plan long term and may be willing to see exports crash for a while with the world economy provided that China emerges at the other end as the world's new hegemon.
"How do you define a successful economy under these conditions?"
Replace human labor with robots and AI?
DerOger's most recent brag about how German Christmas markets are far more secure than everyday life in the US is so completely lacking in self-awareness as to be laughable, mostly because he never questions why such extreme & expensive security measures are even necessary, as to include militarized police, manned checkpoints in public areas, metal detectors for pedestrians, metal bollards, concrete barricades & 24/7 video surveillance:
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/germanys-christmas-markets-grapple-with-soaring-security-costs-2025-11-25/
This sad state of events, our deluded DerOger confuses with both safety and freedom, even though maintaining a 24/7 military security state suggests an almost unimaginable level of cultural fear, panic, terror & dread.
As previously mentioned, EU media propaganda is designed to convey an 'All-is-Well' narrative -- which is why our poor deluded paper friend believes a German police state is somehow 'normal' -- as opposed US media propaganda that indulges in 'fear porn' to convince the general public that ever more oppressive law enforcement is both good & necessary.
Hence the constant US media 'fear porn' about US gun violence, even though roughly half of all US gun deaths are suicide and 60% of the remaining fraction is due to diversity-on-diversity crime committed with illegal guns, but rarely caused by legitimate gun owners.
And, unlike the Cologne & Rotherham scandals, the USA actually arrests & prosecutes US rapists -- with special exceptions made for the international Epstein elite -- rather than letting our diverse vibrants off with a finger-wagging because it is 'their culture' to rape innocent children & girls.
Further humor is to be found in that old Frisian proverb about cultural participation or expulsion, since it loosely translates as 'Auslander Raus', which is especially delicious because our own fake german would be the first to deny the legitimacy of said sentiment.
Best
_____
At least according to the official NASA website, SS Officer Wernher von Braun (retired) was a 'Great American Hero' and 'one of the most important rocket developers and champions of space exploration in the twentieth century', but not a failed 'nazi hack':
https://www.nasa.gov/people/wernher-von-braun/
Though China has significantly reduced their imported oil purchases, down ~41% compared to a year ago, they have not stopped importing oil.
Also, I've seen estimates as high as 5 years worth at 2024 consumption levels for the size of China's reserves.
There also seems to be some consensus among experts that an additional factor in China's current reduction in imported oil purchases is that China's efforts in renewables and electric transportation are paying off significantly enough to make a noticeable reduction in their oil usage.
Whatever the reasons, yes. China has indeed acted in a way that seems to have kept oil prices down to less than half of the price many experts estimated it would peak at because of the war. Current prices are around $90 per barrel +- while estimates peaked at around $200 per barrel.
But I think we should keep in mind that these were estimates and we don't really know how accurate they may have been. Such estimates don't have a very impressive track record. Nevertheless I think it is crystal clear that China's actions have had a significant effect on oil prices that has benefited everyone.
A transition to renewables may explain a part of why China doesn't need as much oil.
A bigger explanation may be that China is already in a deep recession and has been since 2023, the war in Iran just gave them an excuse to stop buying oil without revealing toe the rest of the world how bad their economy really is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTetYGY-w5E
China Just Revealed The Global Economy Is Already Broken — And Nobody Was Supposed To See It
Recommend watching the whole thing.
And what this implies is that China's massive oil stockpile is not the result of far sighted planning by strategic geniuses in Beijing.
Its the result of them not wanting to let the world know how badly their economy sucks.
Especially the property sector where ordinary Chinese have 70% of their wealth invested.
A property sector whose construction activity (and diesel use) has fallen off dramatically in the past few years.
Resetting epigenetic switches will be a big deal. After what will likely be an interesting learning curve the trick will likely improve our quality of life in later years.
I don't expect large changes to the length of our lifespans. Telomeres are still getting clipped short with each cell generation.
as to include militarized police, manned checkpoints in public areas, metal detectors for pedestrians, metal bollards, concrete barricades & 24/7 video surveillance:
Sounds like the normal public American High School, in which they are compelled to perform a Fahnenappell every morning and attempts are made to indoctrinate and molest them with that perverted, distorted form of Christianity and white-washed history state propaganda which Locumranch continues to call "modern".
That pollards and barriers exist now - everything else he mentions is hyperbolic - but the surveillance state is by no means as powerful as in the US.
He continues to contradict himself with the false accusation that we are a police state (though I do recognize that there are appetites to do that) and likewise have a permissive attitude towards criminal migrants (rather, it is the opposite, police and the Justice System have been quite forgiving towards right wing extremism, which is a far larger problem( 26 by islamists vs. 100-200 victims by right wing terrorists since 1990 depending in who counts them)
All is well in comparison to the US. Sure, it might get a bit rougher in the next decade, but as a whole, we will survive.
Further humor is to be found in that old Frisian proverb about cultural participation or expulsion, since it loosely translates as 'Auslander Raus', which is especially delicious because our own fake german would be the first to deny the legitimacy of said sentiment.
Well, of the next storm flood could exterminate your village, you make sure everyone contributes to dykebuilding. I remember the whole topic of floods being covered in elementary school.
It is not cultural participation, it is mandatory service in the community that earned you your place in that society which had no feudal or church overlords until the end of the Middle Ages. It basically was a pre-modern peasant's republic with strong tribal elements. It ended when accumulation of inherited lands led to formation of noble houses and the appetites of their neighbours became to much to defend against. But that system lasted for a couple of hundreds years.
So, a theoretical newcomer would not be greeted with xenophobia, but with "Welcome. This is your spade. This is your task."
Which is quite the mentality people have here in the North and North-West towards migrants.
There is another saying they had:
Lewer duad us slaav.
It is better to be dead than a slave.
Why I mention this?
There can be no republic it's citizens do not have or want to serve or defend, because the wolves are always at the border. Freedom and Survival demands personal sacrifices now and then.
Wolves like the ancestors of AfD nutcase Beatrix von Storch, who murdered each other, went on crusades and became pirates in that era. And later kings and czars and Nazis.
Of course, to someone like Locumranch who is caught in White Narcicism, confederate nostalgia and Red Scare Propaganda, this all sounds evil. We all here know he would have sided with the feudal overlords to crush free people who fought for self-determination.
He cannot suffer other ways of thinking. He must deny happyness and optimism and smear those who fare better. Not just us, but also the Scandinavians a few weeks ago.
And that makes him a threat. A fanatic. An extremist. An thoroughly evil person.
And someone to be pitied.
Lewer duad us slaav.
"...because our own fake german..."
I finally vowed to refrain from reading his posts for 1000 days because he continued to slander me. Just saying.
Alfred, the Ornish-Blackburn diet combined with exercise and stress management can lengthen telomeres in humans. I think this study came out around 2014. Not just slow down telomere shortening, but actual increase in telomere length from the beginning of the study to the end.
"We all here know he would have sided with the feudal overlords to crush free people who fought for self-determination."
If oligarchs were threatening the freedom of white male Christians, his ilk would be loudly quoting the Declaration of Independence.
If the authoritarians are white male Christians asserting their dominance over everyone else, then it's a different matter.
Sen Andy Kim (NJ) is pushing a version of Medicaid for all children and young adults under the age of 26. To his credit, Dr. Brin suggested this first about two decades ago.
https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2026/07/as-kids-health-coverage-slides-kim-pitches-insurance-with-no-cracks/
However, if your telomeres are too long, then you can have problems with increased cancer risk. The theory goes that as you increase the number of cell divisions, it increases the time that you can accumulate mutations that lead to cancerous tumors.
One way to combat this is to do things that trigger autophagy. Regular fasting (ideally 24 to 36 hour fasts) causes the body to scavenge cells that don't function well, including tumor cells and amyloid plaques in the brain.
Then you can stimulate genetic repair mechanisms (to prevent those mutations) with sirtuins and NAD+ boosters. So, i do think it will eventually be possible to significantly extend human lifespans.
Interesting kerfuffle going on in Ukraine at the moment. Apparently defence minister Federov and army chief Syrski have been daggers drawn for a while, and it came to a head last week when Zelenskyi dismissed Federov. Following mass protests, he's now dismissed Syrski as well. It remains to be seen when or if either get let out of the sin bin.
I don't pretend to understand all the machinations going on behind this, but it seems like a case of new guard v old guard with Zelensky the meat in the sandwich. It does occur to me that, with Ukraine currently bringing the fire to Russia, people are beginning to envisage a life after war. This is a good thing, so long as they don't lose sight of the war still being waged.
So, a theoretical newcomer would not be greeted with xenophobia, but with "Welcome. This is your spade. This is your task." Which is quite the mentality people have here in the North and North-West towards migrants.
Yet, another polite lie offered up by DerOger, as "Data published by Germany’s Federal Employment Agency (BA) has revealed that over 60% of those who can work but instead receive state welfare payments in 2023 have migrant backgrounds, with that number rising to over 70% in certain federal states and among younger age cohorts".
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/germany-over-6-in-10-welfare-recipients-have-migrant-backgrounds/
In the sense of Lewer duad us slaav, this could be why so many EU citizens like DerOger seem to wish for death, as they know deep down that they are slaves to the parasitic immigrant hordes.
In the New World, however, we tend to interpret this saying differently, as a call-to-arms rather than as an excuse for suicide, mostly because we are men who would rather fight to the death than choose polite self-extinction.
I can only wish our polite EU friend Godspeed if death is what he so slavishly desires.
Best
______
Interesting news from the Ukraine, indicating that the Ukrainian people may have lost patience with Zelenskyy's tyrannical rule, as it's been over 4 years since he cancelled elections & made himself king.
Will the Ukrainian people rise up & fight to reclaim their democracy? Or, will they knuckle under & seek the sweet release of death to escape their slavery?
Enquiring minds want to know.
Syrsky is one of the last Generals trained in Soviet times, and he fought that war soviet - style in many places.
Plus, he promoted a lot of officers loyal to him and constantly created new brigades to head them.
Federov is associated with the drone programm.
Locums half-truths and poorly understood numbers do nothing to mask his delusions: the policies he promotes have led the US to the brink of economic, politic and strategic collapse. He distorted the representation of other nations to mask the fact that Trump will break the US and sell the surviving pieces to his buddies.
And while he and his ilk fancy a nostalgic vision of the past (which did never exist in the way they depict it) and indulge in culture war issues, farmers go bankrupt, prices rise, the Iran war continues, former allies bail out, people die of simple medical conditions, plagues spread, environmental catastrophies worsen, the debts explode, the general level of violence rises, concentration camps are errected, and preparations to destroy the last vestiges of democracy and to dismantle the state of law are made.
Empires seldom collapse over night. It is a process that can take decades. The tell-tale sign of that process are overextension, economic and financial imbalances, and the searching for scapegoats.
But the more obvious that decline happens, the more rabid they become in counteraccusations, finger-pointing and outright lying.
"Locums half-truths and poorly understood numbers"
That's where he's a Viking.
"...the more rabid they become in counteraccusations, finger-pointing and outright lying."
Those too.
There we have it: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jul/22/openai-says-its-models-went-rogue-and-hacked-startup-in-unprecedented-incident
Low-Cum-Ranch making veiled death threats again. Yawn, must be a Wednesday.
It must be tiring to be such an asshole.
https://www.threads.com/@rexhalligannyc/post/DbEJCt2kdZd
When I was a kid, rich people sued kids that downloaded songs from Napster for IP theft.
When I was grown, rich people told us IP theft isn’t real, and we need to do it to build AI.
A few years later, and rich people are saying it’s unfair that China used IP theft to build better AI than them.
By way of Stonekettle's Threads feed.
Ironically, the Frisians also got their autonomy by helping Charlemagne fend of the vikings....and helping him conquer Italy.
Just in, a few hours old: the electoral commission of the county bearing their name has not allowed an AfD member as a candidate for a local election aa a head of county administration due to his extremism. Others have announced to go the same route.
We will see how that goes.
Unser Oger,
Just a couple specifics: For one, presenting percentages without providing the absolute numbers is deceptive, and often deliberate. If there are 100 people getting a subsidy and 70 of them are immigrants that sounds bad for the immigrants, but if there is well over a million immigrants then the statistic is meaningless.
What is much more meaningful is the diachronic variation. I don't know the figures for any other country but my own, but studies in the US have shown for decades that immigrants commonly need assistance in their first year, but most of them not only quickly integrate into the economy, a whole lot of them start their own businesses and become job creators. Ultimately immigration has been a net plus to the American economy for the entire last century, but xenophobic hate mongers don't want us to know that. Then there's the fact that they commit crimes at half the rate of the native-born population, so the lies about immigrants all being dangerous criminals doesn't even come close to the facts.
Likewise the "American carnage" lie ignores the fact that crime rates have been in free fall since the Clinton Administration, and most cities are now down to where they were in the 1960s. Conservatives are mostly motivated by fear (serotonin types) or greed (testosterone types). The T-types know how easily the s-types are duped, so they lie out their asses, and the s-types believe every lie.
It makes no difference to me if you choose to disregard my warnings & cautions about your ill-conceived interpretations of current events, because causality is implacable.
Matthew considers my every caution as a 'death threat', and this just means that he is easily manipulated with poor impulse control, much like that poor woman who deliberately overdosed on Tylenol in response Trump's televised warnings about its side effects. Boy, did she show him !
DerOger just bragged about the banning of an AfD candidate from a local election, even though recent polls indicate that the AfD is the single most popular political party in all of Germany, yet he fancies himself a 'Defender of Democracy' by depriving the voter of their first-ranked choice.
Poor Paul (aka Lena), though well-read, is first & foremost a flibbertigibbet, capable of only regurgitating what ze has read without processing, as ze just did when ze quoted the LEGAL immigrant crime rate, but not the much higher crime rate of the law-breaking illegal ones.
And, as for immigration always being a 'net plus to the American economy', I'll just leave this here:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-lawmakers-scrutinize-tech-firms-over-h-1b-visa-use-amid-other-job-layoffs-wsj-2025-09-25/
Best
__________
Anyone else becoming concerned about Dr Brin's recent Mitch McConnell Impersonation? At what point can we expect 'proof of life'?
David's last social media posting was 2 days ago. He has mentioned he's busy at the moment.
So, unconcerned.
Well, in the US, millions of voters are disenfranchized through gerrymandering and a dozen other means.
I am not bragging, I am rather cautious because the method leaves a constitutionally proscribed way.
You forget that our constitution after 45 was based around the Idea of "Never again", so ways and means of banning parties who intend to abolish or harm the constitutional order are already there (and has been done successfully with one Nazi party and the Communists).
And that they would do that they have already said, from mass executions over forced inseminations to voter and party suppression themselves.
Polling shows a majority of 30-40% for and 40-50% against banning the AfD.
Oil just hit $100 a barrel and is going higher.
The Persian Gulf is shut down by the Iranians
The Red Sea is shut down by the Houthis.
Russia's oil ports and facilities have been decimated as far away as Siberia, reducing Russian oil production by 50% - by the Ukrainians.
Over 25% of the world's oil supply is now offline.
Game over.
We lost.
We're fucked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0WidFb7a5c
Oil HITS $100 As Houthis LIGHT UP Red Sea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF1GpPYE_OI
This Is Checkmate For The Global Oil Market
Huh? as of 11:50 mountain daylight time, its already dropped back to $92. The all time high of $140 happened on June 30, 2008, so we're nowhere near record territory. The US is now producing almost 14 million barrels a day, about 16% of the world's crude output, so we've almost completely replaced Iran's production, hence no panic is happening.
Forget about the tankers and the oil infrastructure.
Destroy the desalination plants and thee region becomes uninhabitable.
You may not have noticed in the reporting of the renewed fighting in the Persian Gulf but an Iranian drone destroyed a Kuwaiti desalination plant.
Countries in the Middle East rely heavily on desalination for municipal and drinking water to offset severe natural freshwater scarcity.
Fresh water is a resource far more important than oil.
There are approximately 5,000 operational desalination plants across the Middle East.
The estimated percentage of potable water supplied by desalination varies by country, according to regional and international data:
Qatar: 100%
Bahrain: 100%
Kuwait: ~90%
Oman: ~86%
United Arab Emirates: ~80%+
Saudi Arabia: ~50–70%
Israel: ~80%
Iran only gets 3% of its drinking water from desalination.
Do the the fucking math
With a few thousand drones Iran can render the entire region unlivable without even bombing the oil infrastructure.
Despite being "obliterated", Iran still has 70-90% of its missiles/drones left, and building more every day in dispersed locations immune to American air strikes
Have we almost completely replaced Saudi and Russian oil production?
The price of U.S. crude oil (WTI) is trading around $92 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel.
Looks like a good time to go long on American oil companies.
They only damaged a few generators https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iranian-strike-hits-a-kuwait-desalination-plant-damaging-key-water-source/ar-AA288xaD . Iran is down from being able to fire hundreds of missiles at a time to now being able to fire a few at a time. That's why there is no panic happening.
They have more than enough, especially since it is the insurance companies that have shut down the Red Sea and the Straits of Hormuz, and alternate pipelines are easily destroyed.
US intelligence assessments estimate that Iran still retains approximately 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile stockpile (originally around 3,000) and thousands of one-way attack drones. Despite extensive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting their infrastructure, Iran continues to maintain a potent and operational arsenal.
Current reports indicate the following specifics regarding their remaining capabilities:
Ballistic & Cruise Missiles: The CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency estimate Iran retains approximately 70% of its initial missile stockpile and about 60% to 70% of its mobile launchers. This leaves them with roughly 2,000 to 2,100 ballistic missiles.
Drones: While exact figures remain heavily classified, intelligence officials affirm that Iran still possesses thousands of one-way attack drones (such as the Shahed-136), with the capacity to launch 50 to 100 per day.
Not bad for a country that has supposedly been "obliterated" several times over.
Well, Iran is both economic with it's remaining reserves and thinks far more in long term strategies than the US. I suspect they try to keep the situation chaotic and ambiguous at least until after November, to inflict maximum hurt on the world and US economy.
They would certainly be very happy If Trump made the mistake of invading with ground forces, which truely will be the Vietnam of Iraqs.Especially of they reinstitute the fragt.
Maybe they will continue their strategy even a bit longer, because while we could expect one or even two chambers of Congress turning blue in normal times, we haven't the latter and will see many attempts to steal the election.
The US will be paralyzed with internal ... problems for a few months.
Which would be the perfect moment for China to snatch Taiwan; the US still occupied with the Straits of Hormuz and with dangerously low air defense ressources left.
Which would have an effect on the production of high value microchips. One only can Imagine what this would mean for an economy in which half of the stock market value are AI developers.
I also see no reason why China would not force and receive Compliance of Western nations by throttling or shutting down exports. Or as their defense minister said to ours: "Why should we worry about sanctions? We just cut off your supply of antibiotics."
Thank you, dear shareholders.
There is an option the Trump regime has that might be successful in the short term, but would have very bad consequences.
I don't believe I spill any beans by saying they have at least contemplated a symbolic or limited use of nukes.
I believe there is a low chance that they would surrender on the terms of status quo ante.
However, I think it is more likely that the water desalination plants of the gulf states will be annihilated in return fire.
Tens of millions of people become environmental refugees within one week.
Plus, others constrained before might feel they have the right to use nukes now, too, so that would give Putin a sort of allowance to bathe Ukraine (and possibly some EU states) in nuclear fire.
"a symbolic or limited use of nukes"
That's also the last card Putin can play in Ukraine.
As for China invading Taiwan, a single missile can destroy the Three Gorges River Dam, sending a wall of water 100 feet high down the Yangtze river. Within hours, a devastating deluge would engulf the Yangtze River basin, threatening up to 400 million people, destroying global supply chains, and triggering a humanitarian disaster that would collapse the Chinese economy.
Wiping out everything in its path, including China's financial and manufacturing capital Shanghai. China's industrial base would be gone.
We could see three greatest powers on earth, the US, Russia and China humbled and broken by cheap drones in a few months time.
World wide political and economic chaos follows.
Oh woe is me! The world's gonna end!
Hmpf. 8/
Wimp.
For anyone keeping track, the Houthi's have been shooting at USN ships for quite some time now. We shoot back too.
We could see three greatest powers on earth, the US, Russia and China humbled and broken by cheap drones in a few months time.
Which would force the remaining "middle powers" (Mark Carney) to work with each other and form something new.
Alfred,
It is not important what the USN or Houthies do, but the insurers.
No insurance, no traffic.
Der Oger,
I understand that part. Insurers play a vital role in the markets and have for centuries.
What they do, though, is charge appropriate to the risk. No insurance isn't really a thing. No affordable insurance is.
Sounds like I'm nit picking, but I'm not. We faced this with early attempts to take space flights private. The FAA licensing process is fundamentally about insurance since the Outer Space Treaty has a few things to say about who is liable for what. Policies for commercial launches in the 80's and 90's reflected the total possible income from lost satellites, so underwriters were signing off on HUGE sums. Policy prices were pretty high, but still got paid.
Another struggle between a corrupt, fascistic, super-power and a trusted, democratic, middle-power. It's almost like history is lifting chapters straight out of FOUNDATION.
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