== Why are we at war again? ==
I'll be concise here, laying down reasons why thousands of U.S. service members - and eventually millions of the rest of us are being thrown into danger amid gaudy explosions that terrify - and sometimes kill - a people we want as friends.. I'll briefly offer some bullet points, many of them I've already elucidated, in other locales. But one thing is certain...
...that this is not about Iran's nuclear program. Sure, the Mission Accomplished 'deal' that Donald Trump will eventually bray will claim that's the reason for it all. It's not. Even remotely.
1. Elsewhere, I speak of Republican Bipolar Foreign Policy. The GOP always ... and I mean literally always... veers sharply between isolationism and imperial thuggery. We saw this manic-depressive mania under Nixon, Reagan, Ford, and both Bushes (remember the Neocons braying "We're an empire now!").
2. When Republican presidents do wage war, it is with an unmistakably different style of military action than Democratic presidents. I've seen no one comment on this, even though it expresses a fundamental difference in character. And yes, it expresses diametrically opposite attitudes toward the fantastically professional men and women of the US military officer corps....
3. ...whose demoralization is a core aim of the Trumpists. Take how Pete "Filthy Fingers"* Hegseth commanded 500 of the world's finest professionals -- generals, admirals and top sergeants - to drop their work all over the world and hurry to Quantico, where 'former' alky Hegs and Trump berated them as "too fat and too woke to fight." just 6 weeks before they performed the most spectacularly complex and competent raid (in Caracas) in the history of the world. A raid that exposed many of our secret methods and tools to scrutiny, without liberating any Venezuelans from their criminal masters (We'll say more on that.)
But yes. Demoralization and culling of the Officer Corps is a feature, not a bug. Trump fired the JAGs whose task includes advising military folks about the legality of orders. And he's been reaming out dozens of flag officers who demur over sending boots into American cities. Now why would he do that?
4. Then there's distraction. Trump is not the first to use war to divert attention away from domestic failures and discontents. Nixon did it. Reagan several times. As did Bush Jr. But Donald Trump is truly desperate to sidetrack. Now with Operation Epstein Slurry... I mean Epic Fury.
Which brings us to something that many of you keep falling for.
5. This Iran war is not even remotely about oil. Except as he's been able to get Venezuelan oil export revenues diverted into offshore slush accounts that he controls. And sure, he likely intends the same re: Iran. And starving Cuba could lead to the option described below. But the USA - as a nation - does not benefit from war-seized oil. We got none from the Iraq wars - and I want you to read this sentence several times, till that fact sinks in. "We did Iraq for oil" is an idiotic incantation worthy of MAGA.
Anyway, the US got energy independence under Obama and is a net exporter. So STFU about that cliché.
6. Except that shutting down Iranian oil does boost world prices, benefiting his fellow oligarchs. So, okay. Maybe a bit.Indirectly.
7. This is not about toppling despots! Decapitating the top capo of the Venezuelan and Iranian gangs is classic mafia technique, that is not meant to liberate the people of those countries! DT has already made offers to the Iranian Republican Guard and Religious Police etc to make deals with him to stay in power, in exchange for them kissing his ring. In Venezuela, Argentina, El Salvador etc. - and possibly soon in Cuba - the aim is never, ever to establish democracy or to liberate citizens from their oppressors.
The pattern is perfectly that of mafiosi. Take over another gang's territory by decapitating its top capo, then get allegiance (and resulting vigorish) from the terrified sub-capos of the gang that's left in place. This pattern is now so repeatedly blatant that no other theory is even remotely tenable,
Oh, and Marco will ensure that Miami crime families will slip in atop the Castro power structure in Cuba. This is a Mafia gang and the capo di tutti capi - even above Don - was named Vlad. Though the power of his blackmail files to coerce western elites into obedience may be fading! For reasons I'll go into, elsewhere. (Hint: because of AI.)
8. I mentioned the exposure of hard-won military secrets and methods, each time we go to physical war. Sometimes, that can't be helped. Russian and Chinese observers are all over eastern Ukraine, for example. Mostly amazed by the brilliance and effectiveness of most Western systems and studying hard how to copy or counter them. But Ukraine is an actual need. Perhaps Iran is, too. But this factor belongs on the balance sheet.
9. Russia's interest. Look up The Great Game of the 19th Century between the Russian and British Empires, as the former kept maneuvering and jostling, trying to win its way to a southern, ice-free port into the Indian Ocean and from there to the rest of the world. Iran/Persia was always a major part of that great-powers struggle and if most in the west don't remember it, you can be sure that Russians do. Above all, the very last thing they want is a free, secular and democratic Iran. Far better to divide power there with the Trumpist gang. Whose relations with Putin are the ghosts at the banquet.
10. Okay, this final reason for the war is harsh. It is speculative, but makes perfect sense,
Another aim is to foment anger, to re-enrage the forces in the Middle East who want to do terrorism on America. Riling up enough enemies to deliver us into another 9/11 attack. One that Old Two Scoops imagines might save him from having to face devastating elections, this fall.
Do I have any evidence for that last one? Other than vows of revenge that are already echoing across the region, for the blatantly dumb targeted assassination of Iran's 82-year old paramount religious leader?
Well, it would explain why Don fired over half of our counter-terrorism folks. And can you think of anything less than a major national trauma that'd provide the excuse he needs for martial law?
Put it all together folks.
Prepare, in that event, to chant "Reichstag Fire!"
But also keep in mind another word. One that shows we finally understand what's going on. Phase 9 of the 25 year recurring psychic schism between pro- and anti-modernity Americans. Our never settled civil war. And hence one word that will efficiently show our grit, our determination, our courage... our firm intent.
APPOMATTOX.
* Filthy Fingers Hegseth. Look up how many times, on Fox, he (drunkenly) bragged: "I don't believe in germs; I haven't washed my hands in a decade." Though I'll admit. Most Trump appointees are even more crazy and even less qualified.
23 comments:
Spotted another (which may be a variant on #8)
U.S. war in Iran risks depleting munitions for Ukraine now, Taiwan later
I tend to be wary about accusations that military campaigns are meant as domestic distractions. Not this time.
David,
That's an interesting theory for the war.
I must say that Trump is conducting war a bit differently than prior administrations. Trump 2.0 seems determined not to put boots on the ground. Our twin "forever wars" taught him that these actions end up destroying political power.
Instead, he seems intent on sending air power and special forces in to break stuff,, and hope the populace will rise up and topple the existing power structure. Historically, it took ground pounders to topple governments. Air power alone wasn't enough. Wiping out the leadership class combined with air power and special forces raiders is kinda a new strategy for regime change. Who knows if it will work.
This is ENTIRELY consistent with you likening it to a mob war, especially with targeting the top leaders. Before, conventional war strategy didn't aim for elites with the idea that if you knocked them off, you'd have no one to surrender. It was also convenient for the elites to feel safe. If you target top leadership, the other guys might retaliate.
What use is it getting to the top if you're too dead to enjoy your loot?
Now that Trump is stuffing treasure into his pockets unlike most prior presidents, this manner of warfare makes sense. However, you imply that Obama should get credit for making the US oil independent. I don't really think he did much to achieve it. The primary reason was the oil industry developing fracking tech, isn't really something the lw likes much.
Obama was pushing green energy initiatives, and the oil industry short circuited this move by learning to get production from fields that weren't profitable before. So, to me, our current energy independence was more in spite of lw politicians.
Corrections. The amount of munitions used to hit Iran is - my completely amateur impression - very minor compared to any day of Ukraine.
JV Trump does NOT want a successful democratic uprising in Iran. That would be an un-controllable democracy. I give odds he'll make a deal to leave Ayatollah types in Charge... tho here's an essential conflict with Israel, who want Iranian democracy since Iranian city folk like Israel and would restore that only alliance.
So if Treebeard is right, then I'll be wrong and democracy will prevail, dest[ite Trump's mafia wishes.
JV you may be right but I'll gladly (simplistically) give BHO credit.
The pattern is perfectly that of mafiosi. Take over another gang's territory by decapitating it's top capo, then get allegiance (and resulting vigorish) from the terrified sub-capos of the gang that's left in place.
No argument here, as both the Mafia & the US federal government utilize violence (or the threat of violence) as a foundational tool to compel obedience, establish order and enforce rules within their respective spheres of influence.
It's hardly a new observation either, ever since John Brunner offered up the same analysis in his 1975 novel 'Shockwave Rider', but one that's been adequately addressed by Robert Heinlein, A.E. Van Vogt, the OST's 'A Piece of the Action' episode and the glorious US Second Amendment.
It's also the entire rationale behind all of our fine host's 'Union Kepi' blather, too.
To which I reply:
You're singing to the choir, brother, though my cap be grey and my flag be bonnie blue, and we'll all be fine here, thank you, as opposed to an unarmed EU, now occupied by 50+ million foreign males, making it well & truly screwed.
Best
We've already lost the war with Iran for the same reason that Putin lost the war in Ukraine.
Drones.
Cheap, simple , effective and deadly drones that can be made in any garage using parts from radio shack have changed warfare as much as tanks did in WW2. All this high tech weaponry and all we've done is recreate stalemate trench warfare of WW1
And Iran is world's premier producer of drones:
(Summary from ChatGPT)
is iran the world's biggest producer of drones?
Iran is not definitively the world's largest overall producer of drones, but it has emerged as a major global power in low-cost, loitering munition (kamikaze) drones. While China dominates the global commercial and consumer drone market (over 70% share via DJI), Iran leads in producing cheap, effective, and battle-tested military drones, with Russia now mass-producing Iranian-designed drones.
Key Details on Iran's Drone Capabilities:
Mass Production Capability: Iran has moved from a regional player to a global supplier, with the ability to produce thousands of drones (such as the Shahed-136) at low cost.
Russia Partnership: Russia is manufacturing Iranian-designed drones (Geran-2) in a facility in Tatarstan, aiming to produce thousands annually, which leverages Iranian design with Russian manufacturing.
Key Models: The Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 are widely used, notably in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Global Proliferation: Iran has exported drone technology to multiple countries and proxies, including Sudan, Venezuela, Tajikistan, and Hezbollah.
While Ukraine has recently reported high, localized production numbers (up to 4 million drones annually, including small FPV drones), Iran remains a top player in the specific, strategic category of long-range, loitering
(End summary)
A single kamikaze drone costs between $100 and $55,000 depending on range and sophistication.
By comparison a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) costs $125 million and carries cargo worth $130 million.
Do the math.
There is no defense against a swarm of 100 drones when only one of them has to get through.
Like I said, we've already lost.
That and not having a strategic plan to actually win the war doesn't help either.
Dr. Brin,
I think he DOES want an uprising to put pressure on Iran's leaders to cave. Doesn't mean he won't hang them out to dry when they've served his purpose.
If we really cared about freedom we would be invading the far worse regime in North Korea.
But then NoKo doesn't have any oil.
Funny how we only liberate countries that have oil.
If I'm reading your ladder of logic,
(a) Your premise is that Iran wins the war as long as their are able to maintain a blockade of the straights of Hormuz.
(b) From that premise, you then examine "does Iran have the capability to maintain a blockade on Hormuz indefinitely"? You conclude that it can, and therefore that Iran will win in the end.
I'm not convinced by your premise.
The US doesn't import oil from the Persian gulf, so I don't think a blockade of Hormuz is going to be devastating for the US economy.
What does "winning" look like for the US?
(1) destroy (or at least heavily attrit) Iranian nuclear capabilities. - closing Hormuz has nothing to do with that
and/or
(2) regime change in Iran - closing Hormuz to tanker traffic doesn't prevent that either.
(3) make Trump look good (for arbitrary values of "good") - I don't think sinking tankers is going to have much impact here. Sinking the Abraham Lincoln would, of course. But She's a pretty hard target for drones unless she wanders to close inland.
Heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"Iran's totally-obliterated nuclear program healed as quickly as Trump's ear."
This morning's BIG STORY on France24 seems to support Celt's assessment:
How will the Iranian Conflict affect the Summer Travel Season?
The West has become so decadent, trivial & unserious that it has already lost.
Best
Also heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"The only difference between Trump and Jim Jones is that Trump would charge you for the Kool-Aid*."
* Yes, I know it was really Flavor-Aid. We've known for centuries that "oxygen" is a misnomer, but what can you do?
So the dow, which started with a loss Monday morning has almost recovered to its Friday afternoon close.
And oil prices, while up from Friday's $67/barrel were only as high as $73 before retreating back closer to $70.
What do the Epstein Class know that we don't?
Celt,Iran has three paths and only one includes attacking us.
1: most likely. The IRG etc cut a Mafia deal with Trump. Israel would prefer full democratic conversion since they know they are popular on the streets. But they can live with this. Putin can live with it.
2. Complete popular uprising is successful, Full transition to modernity and democracy. I cannot vouch for Netanyahu (damn him) but most Israelis and Americans would want this. But Putin and Trump would hate it.
3. The Iranian regime resists Trump effectively and galvanizes a resurgence in world terrorism. This benefits Trump in the biggest way, because a new 9/11 excuses martial law in the US.
"No argument here, as both the Mafia & the US federal government utilize violence (or the threat of violence) as a foundational tool to compel obedience..." Garbage. An adversarially accountable and transparent justice system and a government that is regularly and competitively audited is not a mafia gang. But we've learned that it can be dismantled and corrupted by traitors.
Unserious? Because a travel professional is worried about travel? Gawd you are clutching at straws. Europe is re-arming and training hard. Putin made a BIG mistake getting distracted and letting his own forces wither, revealed as incompetent buffoons. A pack of grumpy Finnish cub scouts could march into St. Petersburg. And be welcomed as liberators.
Cplus, are you saying the collapse of European and Asian economies won't negatively impact the US? The world financial system? International trade? Ruin our alliances and diplomatic standing?
We don't have to be directly affected in order to be wrecked by Iranian drone strikes.
The IRG won't be rational after this. Think of a much larger and more radical Taliban on steroids, with larger numbers, more sophisticated technology and better financing. All we've done is disturb the wasps nest.
My advice to everyone is not to get on board a plane anytime soon.
You all have to watch this interview with Prof Jiang who predicted that Trump would win in 2024, he would attack Iran, and that America would lose that war.
https://youtu.be/4Ql24Z8SIeE?si=Qtj7_jlqshAuQfS2
Iran's primary weapon would be drones attacking the most important facilities in the middle east.
Desalination plants.
For example, if they destroy Riyahd's desalination plant a city of 10 million would be without water in two weeks.
That's easy to do with cheap drones.
Without desalination the Gulf countries can't function. They are then unable to underwrite the American economy with investments in AI data centers the current linchpin of the American economy. Everything collapses like a house of cards.
When our fine host says Europe is re-arming and training hard, I believe that he is referring to 'Readiness 2030', a 5 year plan that promises European military preparedness by 2030, a prospect that has most likely reduced Putin to a state of abject terror, possibly due to his passing familiarity with Soviet-style 5 year plans.
And, yes, a promise to defend yourself from violence FIVE YEARS FROM NOW is the very definition of 'unserious', especially when faced with violence today.
I expect little else from a meek & conquered people who still rely on the protection of the US Mafia & Don Trumpeone, lo these many years.
I served in all commissioned ranks from second lieutenant to Major General. And during that period I spent most of my time being a high-class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street, and for the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer for capitalism. I suspected I was just part of the racket all the time. Now I am sure of it.
These were the words of Major General Smedley Butler, the most decorated US Marine in American History & author of the revelatory tell-all called War is a Racket, published in 1935. It's a short read.
https://archive.org/details/war_is_a_racket_1903_librivox
Best
The regime wins the war if it survives and maintains a stranglehold on their citizens.
Trump wins the war if it successfully deflects from his (other) crimes, misdemeanors, plots & failures, If He can affect the November elections.
To a lesser degree, this also true for Bibi.
The Arabs win the war if they can leave the Iran shattered, disunited, ruined and in civil war. They have acted in such manner in Africa, Sudan.I doubt the Arab Lords want a stable Iranian democracy.
European reliance on Oil/Gas
Europe used to be very very relant on supplies of oil and gas from Russia
Then Russia invaded Ukraine and Europe did two things
(1) Arrange for supplies from other countries
(2) Accelerate the transition to renewables
The US/Iran war will disrupt (1) - which is important but is much less important than it was due to (2)
And with China reducing its need for gas (renewables) there are a number of non middle-east countries that have been staring down the barrel of a massive drop in demand and will be able to step into the gap
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