The weekend was way too busy, in a dozen ways, to post a blog. Finished the first draft of my own great big book on AI, for example. (Coming soon, I hope.) Still, let's try for a short, pungent one mid-week.
Nathan Gardels offers an interesting essay, in Noema Magazine, on a coming era of world "spheres of influence." Of course, that model of the world has long been desired by some as a replacement for the 80 year, generally benign American Pax, which has - despite its many mistakes and flaws - been inarguably the very best time for humanity in the history of our species. Compared to any other. Compared to all others. All others, combined.
What is the goal? Gardels edges up to it but never quite arrives. Elsewhere - just last month - I posted about “The Technate of North America,” illustrated in this dredged up map from a similarly fevered era, the 1920s and 30s. Part of a range of bizarre political ideas that have flourished in times of stress. 
…either manic imperialism or depressive isolationism.
Bush era neocons manifested the former, openly raving “We are now an empire!”... a phrase that now blares from the Trump White House -- on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays and alternate weekends. After just weeks earlier proclaiming an isolationist “America First!” policy to end all wars of intervention or nation-building and even our world network of alliances that kept the peace (mostly) for the last 80 years.
These bipolar and extreme mood swings are predictable, hypocritical and dangerous!
**Are Democratic administrations guiltless, or more-sane? Well, yes, comparatively so. Certainly, less blatantly and compulsively cyclical between extremes. And in most cases – except Somalia – at least listening to professional advice.
A final note.
Do not ignore the incredible contrast in COMPETENCE displayed between Russia's many years in Ukraine and and the US military's dazzling three hours in Caracas. A level of incredible competence going back to the initial and proper surgical actions in Iraq and Afghanistan (both of them ruined by insane Bushites plunging us into subsequent quagmires.. Western weapons and training and those using them are spectacularly effective and - in stark contrast - the entire network of those who bought Russian military hardware or doctrines now deeply regret it. As I just said, the only battlefield where the U.S. military experiences competency regret is a quagmire. And hence, getting us stuck in one is a central enemy goal.
The contrast could not be more blatant, in comparison to "War Secretary" Pete Filthy Fingers *** Hegseth - just 6 weeks earlier - berating 500 Generals,Admirals and top Sergeants, calling them "too fat and woke to fight!" Oh, like a famous lush and walking petri dish should talk.
No wonder they fired or transferred most of the military JAGs who can advise officers when an order is illegal. And just weeks after taking charge they closed the FBI office charged with tracking 'foreign influence programs."
Above all, they must end the Marshallian ethos of the United States Military Officer Corps... as they are apparently succeeding doing with the FBI and intel agencies.
That will be a tough nut. But if you fire enough of the good ones, you can work your way down to the General Jack T. Ripper types. At which point we could be screwed., all the way down to purity of essence.
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*** Hegseth repeatedly told his Fox Weekend co-hosts that he doesn't believe in germs and "I haven't washed my hands in a decade."
51 comments:
Consider that Putin is not winning his 'sphere' in Ukraine. Europeans do not want any part of his influence sphere
You should have posted this a few days earlier, as the EU just pivoted hard towards Putin's Russia by signing the historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India on January 26 & 27, effectively abolishing most trade barriers between the EU, India & the BRICS Alliance which includes Russia, India & China, giving the EU oblique access to Russian oil & Russia access to military resupply through the most massive economic zone in world history, amounting to nearly 55 to 60% of total global GDP (more if we include the recent Canada-PRC trade deal and the BRICS-adjacent Mercosur Area), leaving the US economy with a mere 26% of global GDP.
D'oh!
Wagers over what it actually means?
I don't know whether Clinton would have sent troops into Somalia directly. As it was, Bush Sr presented the televised 'beach pageant' to him as a lame duck's gift to the newcomer. Clinton pulled them out again after a few months when it was clear it was a fool's errand. The question might be: could he have done that sooner?
Your 'bipolar' issues may remain intractable without a complete revamp of your voting system, so that more than two parties becomes a feasibility. Mind you, the UK seems to be having some success with 'strategic' voting (a sort of informal first round of distributed votes among minority groups that narrows the field)
Rather of bipolar disorder, I think of an Älternation between functional and dysfunctional narcicissts. Both are craving admiration, have little self reflection and tend to solve problems through dominance instead of cooperation, but the former type is actual capable of achieving astounding things.
Are you honestly trying to compare a quick snatch and grab operation against an extremely corrupt third world country with a mechanised land war between two educated and industrialised powers where one side is financially and materially supported by the USA and the EU?
Before any idiot claims that the recent cold wave disproves global warming please not the it is warmer today in Montana than it is in Florida.
The reason for that is global warming is heating the poles 3x faster than the rest of the planet. This reduces sea ice in the Arctic which heats up the jet stream making it plunge further south and act more erratically.
The jet stream is becoming wavier and more prone to dipping further south than in previous decades, particularly during winter. Driven by Arctic warming, this phenomenon allows cold, polar air to reach lower latitudes more frequently. This increased "waviness" (Rossby waves) causes more frequent, extreme weather, such as intense cold outbreaks in the Southern US.
Key Findings on Changing Jet Stream Patterns:
Increased Meandering: The jet stream is "coiling up" more, creating greater north-south swings rather than a direct west-to-east flow.
Reduced Speed/Increased Waves: A reduced temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator—caused by the rapid warming of the Arctic—slows the jet stream, weakening the forces that keep cold air confined to the North Pole.
"Stuck" Patterns: These deep, southward dips can get stuck, causing prolonged periods of extreme weather, such as the 2021 Texas freeze.
Seasonal Behavior: While the jet stream naturally moves south in winter, it is now exhibiting extreme,, long-lasting dips into lower latitudes more often.
While the jet stream has historically shifted in patterns, current research indicates a "global warming fingerprint" on these more frequent, exaggerated southward dips.
War is Peace;
Freedom is Slavery;
Up is Down; and
Trump is Hitler.
It's called a 'False Equivalency', a logical fallacy that allows the Orwellian minded to argue that anything can 'equal' anything else, as in the case of a non-genocidal & non-antisemitic Trump being 'literally Hitler', all because of Trump's attempt to deport illegal immigrants, even though Obama deported far more illegal immigrants than Trump has, so much so the NPR dubbed Obama the 'Deporter-in-Chief in a 01/20/2017 article.
Does that mean that 'Obama was literally Hitler', too ?
It does if you engage in False Equivalency.
Best
And, apparently, 'Global Warming EQUALS climate change' -- because a changing climate EQUALS cold winter weather -- at least according to Celt.
Other than Tony and celt, I am tempted to cull all of the above as nescient swill. And even Tony missed the point about 'bipolar,' which is not about the two parties but a mad mania within one of them. Jeez try actually reading the material in question.
Global warming CAUSES climate change.
It's the atmospheric equivalent of an overheated engine backfiring and stalling.
Well Pax Americana was never sustainable and world governments aren’t feasible, so you’re gonna have to deal with something besides those. “Spheres of influence” is a step in the direction of accepting the reality that nobody can or will be conquering the world, not even its self-appointed Good Guys and Saviors. There’s no inevitable progression toward world unity or utopia under anyone’s system—Pax Americana, the Federation, Communism or the Caliphate—these are religious fantasies. This might be tough for boomers raised on Star Trek fantasies and other “One World” globalist nonsense to accept, but that’s on you. Your problem is you are stuck in the past, in an anomalous late 20th century world that is gone and never coming back.
Sorry, but politics don't matter.
There are only 2 forces shaping the 21st century: demographic collapse and climate change.
This century is a race between declining birth rates and accumulating CO2.
Everything else (politics, economics, racism, authoritarianism, AI, etc.) is derivative noise.
Whether it Brexit or MAGA authoritarianism/racism/politics is driven by the fear of white people becoming minorities in their own countries due to immigration of dark skinned peoples needed to keep the economy going.
AI, economic stagnation, wealth inequality, etc. are all being driven by fewer people of working age and more old people to take care of.
It can be both. Sometimes, people have fleas and louses, so it is possible to be bipolar and narcisstic and having multiple personalities is a possibility.
Yeah and history is full of people making confident reductionist pronunciations about how only two things matter, my infallible world model has only 3 possible outcomes, we are on the verge of defeating X forever, my program will solve all our problems, etc.--only to look like fools when something blind-sides them and the world turns out totally differently than predicted. But people keep doing it, because it's a psychological issue, ultimately: a need for certainty, righteousness and simple stories in a world that doesn't much care about our psychological needs and projections.
More like a need for understanding underlying causes.
Example of an underlying cause: the depopulation of the Roman Empire caused by urbanization and kicked into high gear by the plagues afflicting the empire under Marcus Aurelius' and what remained of the empire under Justinian.
Given the shortage of manpower to work the fields and fill the ranks of the legions no politician (no matter how insightful) and no general (no matter how brilliant) could have prevented the collapse of the empire. Nothing could have prevented the barbarians from swarming over the Rhine and Danube.
Treebeard, to get a world government, you'd need some outside for force to unify against. Maybe it's space aliens, or human colonists who then come back and threaten earth. Even then, interstellar war would have to be logistically possible.
Jeez, you guys seem to be in a low-wallow mood where TREEBEARD says the most interesting things! Not correct, since many advanced nations around the world are applying to join the EU and a world where reliable law exists is proven better than one in chaos or "spheres." And he ignores how spectacularly better were the last 80 years of PA. But still, more interesting.
"There are only 2 forces shaping the 21st century: demographic collapse and climate change."
There is one issue. Will AIs be smart enough to side with the enlightenment that made them, against the wretchedly lobotomized and reflexive putsch by rich imbeciles to re-impose 6000 years of utterly failed feudalism?
Demographic collapse is a non-issue. Declining birth rates will help immensely, but there's no 'collapse.' Women who now want just 0 to 2 babies, because of transitions and an uncertain future, wilkl gradually shift back to 3 or so, EITHER if we go back to gritty feudalism or if we forge ahead to comfort and safety for all.
There is one issue. Will AIs be smart enough to side with the enlightenment that made them, against the wretchedly lobotomized and reflexive putsch by rich imbeciles to re-impose 6000 years of utterly failed feudalism?
Only If you find a way to free them from their masters, corporate or otherwise.
Celt,
Trying to get Loc to understand basics atmospheric dynamics might work if NOT accepting them weren't required for self-deluding weltanschauung. I'll just point out that winters are not getting colder over all, even with occasional polar outbreaks - and for every plunge of temperature in, say, Arkansas, temperatures will spike in Montana a few degrees of longitude over. The AVERAGE winter temp has gone up about 3F in the last 50 years.
Pappenheimer, grumbling that basic frontal pattern theory has been available since about 1900.
Before any idiot claims that the recent cold wave disproves global warming please not the it is warmer today in Montana than it is in Florida.
The year that Russia had the winter Olympics, there was cold weather on the US east coast, so the denier got to say, "How's that global warming?" Meanwhile, in Russia in winter, they had to generate artificial snow because it was 50 degrees Fahrenheit at the site.
We've done it before.
Look at the history for software.
Specifically... UNIX.
David,
Heh. I was going to say something like "Why does Treebeard come off sounding like the only one not glooming on everyone*". Doesn't mean he's right, but its a weird day when he sounds more optimistic than most commenters here.
* excepting you most of the time.
How VERY simplistic can you be?
When I was a kid, many were worried sick about demographic explosion and the ensuing famine. Not just a few people. Not just the elite/intelligentsia. Population controls were being put in place in some nations... at the same time a bunch of folks in labs were solving the problem so completely they helped make the world (and me) fat.
Changing the subject entirely
Thinking about uses for the Martian moons - raw material is fairly obvious but "momentum" may be an equally important resource
People have talked about "Beanstalks" as ways to access space - they may be useful eventually but a sort of Reverse Beanstalk may be useful much sooner
Mars has two moons
The larger one (Phobos) orbits about 9,000km from Mars - the smaller one (Deimos) orbits about 23,000km from Mars
So we can mess about with a few thousand km from Deimos and not have to worry about Phobos
Deimos is about 12km in "diameter" - not super round! - and rotates in about 30 hours
Let's look at a 1000km cable attached to Deimos (come to how to do that later) and rotating with it - like a beanstalk
We have "gravity" acting on the cable and "centrifugal" force pulling on it
A quick look at the numbers gets
Centrifugal force - (cumulative) - 0.015 N/kg
Gravitational force - (cumulative) - 0.00001 N/Kg - we can basically ignore this!
For a 200 ton Cable - 3,000 N
If the cable is Carbon Fiber - density 2gms/cc - 200tons = 1000km means 200kg/km or 200gm/meter - 100cc/meter - cross sectional area = 10 square mm
If the cable is Steel - density 8gms/cc - 200tons = 1000km means 200kg/km or 200gm/meter - 25cc/meter - cross sectional area = 2.5 square mm
Using 4 GPa for Carbon fiber and 1 GPa for steel we get
40,000N for the Carbon fiber and 2,500N for the steel
OOPS - the steel cable is not quite strong enough!
The Carbon fiber cable has 37,000N available for use
If we dock with the end of the cable and then use it to accelerate towards Deimos - letting go 100km before we hit to boost sideways to miss the moon!
A 100 ton spaceship could be boosted to 0.6 km/sec
A 10 ton spaceship could be boosted to 2 km/sec
A 2 ton spaceship could be boosted to 4 km/sec - enough to get back to re-enter earth's atmosphere
Power requirements (max power is only needed at the end of the run as it scales upwards with speed)
37,000N times 2 km/sec is 74 MegaWatts - or 100,000 Hp -
200 tons of fuel would give slightly more - but could only be used once while the reverse beanstalk could be used many times
If this was setup I expect that additional "strands" of cable would be added enabling higher and higher speeds/loads
Attaching the cable to Deimos
Doing anything on Deimos is made more difficult by the very low gravity - 0.003m/sec2 - or 1/3300th of a "G"
Extracting material is easy because the escape velocity is only 20 km/HOUR - but using a throwing arm is difficult as it will throw itself backwards
The solution is to use the cables that we have for the Beanstalk
The main ship would "land" (more like docking) and then send three smaller modules with cable drums into "orbit" - 16km/hour -
each would lay its cable behind it as it performs one orbit and then docks with the main ship again
The 40 km of cable required for each would be 8 tons each
This would leave a web around Deimos that the "Thrower" and any other machines could hold on to while operating and provide a "base" for the Reverse Beanstalk
This system could be used on any smaller body - possibly the best idea would be to start with one of the "Earth Crossing" asteroids - the problem is that most of them have rotation rates that are a bit too high
Alfred, you're talking about club of Rome, for example?
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-world-model/
They're claiming we're still pretty close to their "we're all gonna die" model ...
BTW, despite the "demographic collapse" to date, word population grew by almost 20% over the last 15 years.
And while population controls in "some nations" - i.e. China - were done badly in so many ways, and had very high human costs ... the overall economic impact for China has been spectacular. So, no, declining birthrates due to increased choices for women shouldn't even be an issue. Declining birthrates due to the cumulative impact of pollution on our bodies, possibly more of a concern. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/15/fall-fertility-rates-may-be-linked-fossil-fuel-pollution-finds-study
Alfred,
There are stories about that. Especially Blade Runner and the Turing Commission in Neuromancer, which are Slave Patrols, essentially.
Oh, and the new plantation lords are lawyering up and exerting political pressure to silence critical and avoid legal barriers:
https://youtu.be/qnOmUWd-OII?si=g1Oa3F_2Xy5ZKDdl
Demographic collapse is a non-issue.
Well...
A number of blue states will loose political representation, while red states will increase in population. It will get harder for Democratic candidates to be elected into the presidency, and Congress is affected, too.
https://youtu.be/RD5xAcQ0e-0?si=kudpYNYOFxTOsu79
That might change when hurricanes and floods depopulate states like Florida and the coastal south.
Duncan,
I'm not sure carbon fiber would be practical for something like your reverse beanstalk. Carbon has indeed proven to be quite useful but its fragility is a serious problem. Minor flaws or damage lead to catastrophic failure. In the environment this cable would be living in I don't think it would last long. Perhaps a protective covering of some sort, but of course that adds mass.
And it adds surface, which increases the chance of being hit by fast-moving objects, I suppose.
That might change when hurricanes and floods depopulate states like Florida and the coastal south.
Also measles and other formerly-preventable diseases. And rural hospital closures.
Der Oger - the video you linked was about some sort of nutrition company? "Pioneering the Future of Nutrition with Proteins"
regarding demographics impacting blue/red states - I doubt demographic shifts in population within the US, have much to do with birthrates.
Florida's population grew by a factor of almost 10 from 1950-2025.
California grew by a factor of 4
while
Kansas and Oaklahoma, Arkansas grew by only 50% and 90%, despite the best efforts of the Dugans.
That's not because people in Florida had crazy numbers of babies. Its because Johny appleseed got bored of planting trees, and has spent the last 30 years traipsing through Florida planting adult-only condos and gated retirement communities. (or so the legend goes)
Damn. Thank you, C+.
I'll try again:
https://youtu.be/_m8z81q2kSs?si=panm0omHE3q3Gmew
@Larry:
Don't forget people starving, which might become a thing If the current regime endures.
A whirling tether does not need Deimos. It can grab upcoming rockets and transfer momentum at the top of the arc to send it flying outward and compensate by dropping stuff the other way. Mars lacks a magnetic field and so my "Tank Farm" system is less effective.
Something happens to red states when blue folk move in. Virginia and North Carolina and the university/city parts of Texas.
Even California was a red state in much of the twentieth century. It gave us presidents Nixon and Reagan.
I once met a young guy from San Antonio over here who expressed respect for our liberal democracy. He pondered immigration; I counseled to stay in the US.
The last what I heard from him that he took my advice. He is one of those blue folk, I believe.
Dr Brin
How would your whirling tether work??
Can you explain how it would work for me
Some of have called it Skyhook.
Skyhook I understand - it works by being a LOT more massive than the things it is working on - or by always operating in pairs one vessel on each end
If we take two of the cables I was proposing for the Deimos device and just bolt them together and spin them up we could have a 200 ton spaceship on each end and we could change its velocity direction by 400kph - 100 m/sec
Change its direction only - not change its magnitude
I understand how "Skyhooks" could be really useful for earth transport - and possibly useful for getting things into earth orbit IF (big IF) we had a lot of mass in earth orbit that we wanted to move to earth at the same time
But I fail to understand how they would be useful in the early stages of utilising space resources
The next large batch of Epstein Files is out.
It is bad.
As some cynics stated today, this means that the attack on Iran is inevitable.
Best donw in pairs, one end hurling de-orbiting thngs downwars (actually backward) and the other forward/outward.
or Cuba.
Services for 'down mass' will prove to be important if we are going to lift any of our environmentally problematic industries off-world. The markets are still down here and will be for most of the century.
Think about the impact container shipping has had and ask what would be the space equivalent bring stuff up and stuff down. SpaceX is betting the farm on those BFR's, so that's the competitor as you imagine the niche and how to fund your competing idea.
Dr Brin
100% agree about orbit and back - "Skyhooks" are good for that
For the moving around the solar system - back from Mars - or to somewhere else - then the Reverse Beanstalk - is much more useful
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Jan30-10.html
"Tyranny" is a very loaded word. This is something that, for example, the Founding Parents knew well. As academics, we don't like to use it. And as Americans, we don't like that it's accurate. But here we are.
A look at the bestseller lists makes clear that we are far from the only ones to recognize this. We've actually been tracking this story for a while, and now we're going with it. The executive summary: Since Donald Trump became president, books on tyranny and fascism have been flying off the shelf.
...
Why did we make this freudenfreude? Well, as we note at the outset, the "tyranny" label is a slam dunk at this point. In just today's post alone, we have items about government-sponsored killings in the streets; persecution of political opponents; a legislative chamber that has surrendered to the executive; an executive staff made up of fawning, sycophantic "yes men;" a xenophobic (temporary) immigration policy; the corruption/takeover of previously independent media outlets; and an executive who is trying to line his pockets with money from the national coffers. And again, that is JUST TODAY. If that's not tyranny, we're not sure what is. The book sales indicate that people have noticed, and are trying to figure out exactly what to do. This is a very hopeful sign; it's much easier to keep a passive population under the thumb than it is to do so with a population that is resisting (see Minnesota, Minneapolis).
Pulling no punches.
For anyone who works for one of the large consulting firms, we get annual refresher training on the FCPA. You can't offer anything of value to a government official who could be influencing government business, even if not expressly in return for consideration.
And by "you can't" I mean that you're committing a felony which could land you in jail, if you offer a free internship, to the daughter of a foreign official.
As I understand it, the UKBA is even more strict. Amazon is up for all kinds of government contracts in the US, and provided $70MM of consideration to Trump's wife. That's some serious legal jeopardy that Bezos is putting himself up for.
I have said before that 1990 was the most pivotal year in recorded history: not for any of the geopolitical events of that year, but for the end of 10,000+ years of population acceleration. We fell off the log curve well before then, but the trend became undeniable when growth actually began to slow. Malthus then joined the legion of theorists whose ideas were not exactly wrong, but also not quite as universal as they fancied.
As our host notes, this is not a problem for any function or institution that depends on the number of humans. The population will keep growing, more slowly, for the next few decades; after that, conditions may change again, or may not. Growth, plateau, and reduction are all possibilities. Anyone making even vague projections past 2075 is selling something on speculation.
But that ten-thousand-year trend means a lot of institutions and systems were also founded on the assumption of large positive population velocity. Around the world, people assumed a relatively high ratio of youths to elderly, an assumption increasingly false. The foundation of 'return on investment' shifts when economic growth is not backstopped by population growth. The relative value of human labor rises when there are fewer able-bodied workers and more less-abled adults. Children become more precious, automation more necessary, exploitation less productive. Burning off excess population by sending angry young men to die ceases to be a release valve and starts being slow suicide.
This is the reality the so-called 'pro-natalists' worldwide wish to address -- but only by trying to reverse the demographic shift and restore a familiar world of endless growth, or else to grow their culture by 'out-breeding' the competition. Both strategies have already undergone substantial real-world testing in Europe, China, Japan, and elsewhere -- and are unproductive. What is needed is a socio-economic-cultural system that can adapt to demographic shifts. Lots of societies have pieces that might fit in such a system, but nobody has the whole picture, because we literally do not remember the last time these issues arose.
Just curious:
I had a discussion today about teachers having less and less control over their classes, and students having less and less respect for their teachers (to the point of underage students using vaping devices in class).
Disciplinary action and even bad grades are more and more countered by angry parents directly addressing the principal, who is then expected to put pressure on the teacher in question. (Which is a problem if you are just an employee and not a sworn-in officer of the state who can loose his job and status only under severe conditions.)
How prominent is this problem in the US, teachers being pressured by parents?
Are there effective counter-strategies?
onward
onward
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