To those of you expressing despair at this point, I say get a grip. We have many institutions and professionals who stand between us and looming tyranny. Though sure, the oligarchs and fascists and (yes) Kremlin-led commies who are waging a putsch against our Great Experiment know this! Hence they are focusing their central energies at demolishing those institutions and professionals.
They began their purge right after the inauguration, by dismissing, re-assigning or neutralizing top experts on counter-terror, counter-espionage and cyber-security, then putting those who remain under direct command of appointees who are either suborned or deeply unqualified. A 100x version of what happened under GW Bush, when smaller purges appear to have led directly to the tragedies of 9/11.
(Every GOP senator who voted to confirm the current bestiary of Trumpian nominees has been directly culpable.)
(And if (when?) a major terror or other calamity happens, denounce those who eviscerated the corps of professional protectors!)
The professionals by now know they are the chief targets. Yes, you are justified to say that ICE raider-thugs are just as big a push. And sure, it's horrific. And I'll get to that, tying it to the mad right's all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
Right now, as individuals, the professionals are keeping their heads down. But I am sure each of the one MILLION members of the American Protector caste is asking self: "What will be my limit?"
The treasonists know this question is being asked into a million mirrors, every day. They are hoping that most of the professionals will - when they finally get fed-up -simply make a 'gesture' by resigning. We've seen thousands already. And boy has that done a lot of good? Not.
But there are other options. My own prediction?
It will start in some big city police department. Already there are anecdotes of folks - many of them citizens - fleeing ICE thugs to take shelter behind cops. So far, I know of no such confrontations that have gone physical. Yet. The masked ICErs generally turn tail at that point. But what if even just one cop begins a trend...
...by demanding the ICErs show ID. NOT to the person they are trying to grab, or to the surrounding public with their phone cams... but to the police themselves. City cops who say
"Oh, sure. Handcuff your suspect. And prepare to hand me a RECEIPT for detaining him. But if I see you using force greater than necessary, I will arrest you. Now wait over there, all of you... please."
== Would that be enough? ==
Would that be enough? Of course not. It would show solidarity between urban citizens and their constabularies. But even if it spread nationwide, we would need much more.
Fundamentally, our officers and such are sworn to obey the civilian chain of command... and there's little provision for when that chain of command is both insane and likely treasonous.
But then, solving such problems is why we hired them! And I do know this. It doesn't begin with resigning in protest!
== A man's GOT to know his limitations! ==
Dirty Harry said that, in Magnum Force. And I know mine. My limitations. Some of them.
Look, I am a theoretician. Though certainly my postings and activism and books have put me on lists. Indeed, they may land me - someday - on a train manifest. Well, I have already decided to die on this hill.
But I serve best by raising options. Possibilities.
Hence I will soon begin a series of postings about What democrats might do, if/when back in office, after microcephalic/blackmailed jibberers and KGB agents have been expelled. And the long-needed revival of a sane conservative party commences, from political sidelines.
My list of proposals is long. And some items I recommended as much as 20 years ago.
If I am still around, I'll post it all and see if ideas can make the kind of difference they are supposed to do.
== Relevant miscellany ==
Do tune in to this lovely “Letter to My Old Master” recited by the inimitable Laurence Fishburne.
Russia is merging its three largest oil companies -- Rosneft, Gazprom Neft & Lukoil, part of accelerating seizure of private companies, aimed at rebuilding the USSR, whose fall Putin called 'history's worst tragedy.' It sounds so preposterous. Putin and his 5000 fellow Lenin-raised "ex" commissars are re-creating EVERY aspect of the evil empire, except the egalitarian verbiage! And the US right adores them. One would not have credited it in a sci fi story!
But given their recent great victory over the America ...
I’m loyal to the first civilization that ever at least somewhat instituted fair play. And hence the only one that produced not only justice, but also Adam Smith’s prescription of flat-fair-creative competition -- the c-word that no ‘conservative’ ever utters anymore, in their rush to ally with “ex” commie-kremlin-commissars, plus murder sheiks, hedge parasites, carbon lords, cable impresarios and inheritance brats, all in order to resume 6000 years of feudal darkness.
The irony is thick! Adam Smith’s c-word (‘competition’) is what made this the most creative (another c-word) of all eras.
NOT the monopolist capitalism that gave itself a well-deserved bad name, but the flat-fair-broad and joyful competitiveness that happens when ALL children rise up fed and educated and confident, exactly what Friedrich Hayek recommended
...and pulling in that ladder, by starving children and trashing education and slandering our brilliant universities, is the oligarchs' top priority.
WHY is no one mentioning Adam Smith? While Republicans and their allies mention Smith's name - and wave flags a lot - they betray his principles and those of the US Founders, at every turn, conniving with oligarchs to END flat-fair competition forever.
Meanwhile Democrats are the ones fostering actual, Smithian flat-fair-creative competition... and not one of them will mention that fact or Adam Smith's name!
== Revisiting history ==
A thought occurred to me. Actually connecting several past thoughts. Elsewhere I've shown how the deepest mental schism in American life -- between pro- and anti-modernity impulses -- goes back all the way to 1778, when Cornwallis went south knowing he would find more romantic/nostalgics who would hence be loyal to the King. A trait that manifested during the Calhoun Tariff Tiff and then when a million poor southern whites marched and fought and many died to defend the feudal privileges of plantation slaver lords... and again when Gone With The Wind cultural waves romantically extolled the Olde South...
...and now, bilious anti-modernism that manifests (with much geographic overlap) across the same confederate heartland, as spite toward universities and all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
In earlier missives I laid out the varied Phases of the American Civil War... and the current one - phase 8 or maybe 9... is nasty.
But a commonality just occurred to me.
Among the travesties that led to the worst episode (so far) -- the 1860s 'Civil War' - was the Fugitive Slave Act, supported by the John Roberts of the 1850s - Roger Taney, cursed be his name and memory and honor.
After which, bands of often-masked irregular southern cavalry began rampaging and raiding across northern states, smashing into homes and workplaces, snatching neighbors and ignoring victims who waved documents proving they were free persons, and not 'illegals.'
Sound familiar? Has anyone else made the parallel with today's monstrous ICE depredations? Because those slave-catcher raids had deeper effects than merely a run for the Canadian border.
They radicalized northerners, who would never have voted for Lincoln had they not been fiercely offended by such nasty aggression and oppression in their own villages and counties.
Another major result? Northern states began re-activating their dormant militias. And thusly by 1861 hundreds of thousands of brave True Americans were almost ready, when Lincoln called for volunteers.
Almost. Bull Run was a calamity but those who stood up stayed up. And stepped up again. Till the Union found its generals.
Newsom/AOC in 28.
36 comments:
GMT-5. I never understood why Hal felt it necessary to kill the scientists in suspension. But it made an amazing scene.
Hal would have had the same conflict of duty with all the crew except the one(s) with mission security clearance, and they might not have agreed with the 'tidiness' of Hal's working solution.
Resigning is a standard way to resolve conflicts in command (Adm. Holsey should perhaps have done it earlier). However, these are not 'standard' times and, if I can see what 'upholding *and* protecting the Constitution' in these circumstances requires, then so can several thousand flag officers. How they go about maintaining their oath is up to them. I doubt they're going to tell me, so all I can really do is trust in their reputed ingenuity and non-complicity.
"GMT-5. I never understood why Hal felt it necessary to kill the scientists in suspension. But it made an amazing scene."
There was cheering in the theater for THX-1138 when the number of robotic cops in service declined by one.
Both instances were drama by screenshot. Forget the gun. Chekhov now has a computer.
Professionals alone won't save you. Those still in office and deemed sufficiently loyal not to be fired, that is. I still see the odds of MAGA "winning" as high.
Quantico and DHS have lowered the standards for recruitment (being loyal to the regime and appearing sober at the recruitment interview could seem to suffice in the future.) The Gestapo had their roots in the Prussian Political Police, which the Nazis took over in 1932 and supplanted regular Police officers with their own people.
The mass media (and the billionaires that own them) have surrendered or were supporters of the regime in the first place.
The Democrats are still a mess.
What I do think what helps is that the regime fucks it up faster than they build up things, and the courts seem to act as a check, or at least slow things down until they reach the supreme court. Also, MAGA shows lines of fracturing. Epstein, tariffs, yadda yadda
When, not if, the AI bubble bursts, things will get tenfold worse than they are now (Just think of the US credit rating when GDP suddenly halves.) We all can only hope that the bubble deflates slowly and if it crushes, it does so before January 20th, 2029. (I am appalled that our own leaders ignore the threat, and will feign complete surprise when it happens, as they always do.)
There is the myriad of grassroots local resistance groups who mount a more effective and successful opposition than anyone actually paid to do so. An intelligent autocrat would allow the fire to slowly burn out. Putins path to totalitarian power took at least a decades, of not two.Trump and his cronies keep the flames alive by pouring oil into it by the barrel.
>>We have many institutions and professionals who stand between us and looming tyranny.
The evidence thus far suggests otherwise.
Larry (from last thread),
I agree that interstellar flight will likely be among the easier challenges, but I don’t think moving a representative sample to Terra will be the most challenging act. We are going to need chunks of Terra with us in Sol’s system long before we go interstellar. It won’t just be humans colonizing Mars.
V.Vinge wrote this into his book involving the Slow Zone trading ships. I suspect he got that right.
As evidence for ICE inspired radicalization... I need look no further than my wife. She normally avoids politics. She teaches at an elementary school in a mod-to-severe autism class. She focuses on life outcomes for these kids.
That was until... masked ICE agents showed up in the schools and the homes of her kids. OMG(!) was she ever spitting fire.
A local mother was radicalized enough to show up ICE raids and interfere. No doubt that qualifies as obstruction, right? The local sheriff squad that protects ICE agents got quite physical with her during her arrest leading to a short stint in the hospital. My wife showed up at the rally outside the county jail calling for her release AND ONLY THEN realized the arrested woman was the mother of one of her kids.
(I mostly take over kid watching duties during protests, but I did help her on the IT side when she wanted to set up better ways for her new friends to communicate. Her group can usually field between 30-50 people at events now... and they aren't the kind of people who need any prompting to show up. All of them got radicalized somehow.)
So... yes. What is happening now rhymes with the consequences of the Fugitive Slave Act.
I guess the machine didn't like their answer to the question, "Do you feel lucky?"
Dr Brin:
I never understood why Hal felt it necessary to kill the scientists in suspension.
He killed the two awake astronauts because they suspected he was malfunctioning and might have shut him down (thus endangering the mission). He might have determined that the sleepers would have had the same suspicions once awakened, especially after asking, "Hey, what happened to Poole and Bowie?"
I don't recall if the source of HAL's psychosis was explained better in the novel. I do know that the explanation given in the movie 2010 felt (to me) like a retcon.
What I do remember of the novel was that they were headed for Saturn (not Jupiter) and that the HAL chapter was titled "Abyss" referring to the dark, empty space between Jupiter and Saturn, and that even if you didn't know exactly what was coming, the title was ominous in its foreshadowing.
As evidence for ICE inspired radicalization... I need look no further than my wife.
My wife too. And my college age daughter. And my 91-year-old mother. You don't want to get the women angry. You wouldn't like them when they're angry.
https://www.threads.com/@stonekettle
Kamala Harris should sue 60 Minutes for editing the Trump "interview."
Presented without further comment.
"They got the guns but, we have the numbers".
We don't need the elites.
I have a message for President Snow. You can torture us, and bomb us, and burn our districts to the ground. But do you see that? Fire is catching. And if we burn...you burn with us!
A few examples of what numbers can do against mere weapons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j972c-yynY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZPzZ_NEwEQ
(The second one takes about 2 and a half minutes to get to the good part)
The comparison of ICE to the Fugitive Slave Act is commonplace both online and offline. As is the comparison of Roberts to Taney.
It is amazing how *ignorant* centrists and GOP are of the sheer level of anger at directed at them. And at complicit Democratic party factotums as well.
I saw more than one John Brown-themed sign at my local suburban No Kings a couple of weeks ago.
Opposition to ICE / GOP is playing very smart right now, with inflatable costumes and meme warfare breaking through the media blockade on reporting accurately on the actions of the fascists in charge. Oligarchs like Musk and Ellison are doing their part by massively changing the media ecosystem in favor of fascism.
But at some point, Trump is going to overtly order extra-judicial killing of not just some brown folks in fishing boats, but of his opposition among white, middle-class US citizens.
And at that point, the John Brown memes of this fall will look prescient.
It is amazing how *ignorant* centrists and GOP are of the sheer level of anger at directed at them. And at complicit Democratic party factotums as well.
I didn't think anyone but me would be sporting the guillotine image on our signs. Oh, boy was I wrong about that. One protester was even carrying a 3-D likeness made of cardboard and silver foil.
The awesome reporting / editorial staff at Teen Vogue were all laid off today.
Conde Nast have determined that Teen Vogue is being rolled into the parent magazine.
If you have not been following, Teen Vogue has been one of the finest investigative journalism magazines in the world for a few years now.
Conde Nast owns Teen Vogue, Vogue, Wired, and the New Yorker, among others.
There has been significant oligarch interest in buying Conde Nast in recent months, with many speculating the purchase would be to further silence critics of the current administration and its close ties to well-known oligarchs.
We don't need the elites.
Exactly. They need US. And the pedestal we have put them on needs to be lowered somewhat.
Larry, I would not call it radicalization. I would call it what Machiavelli named virtu: that level of citizenship where you are politically awakend and fight for the better of the republic. That hard to grasp mixture between courage and duty (though fueled by anger).
Someone should write a list of businesses to be boycotted.
Let's call it a consumer general strike.
It works, Canadians and EU citizens boycott US goods, too. Go, ask Elon.
matthew: "It is amazing how *ignorant* centrists and GOP are of the sheer level of anger at directed at them. And at complicit Democratic party factotums as well."
No one gives a rat's patoot about your splitter masturbations and howls at your allies. I asked you to show us ONE accomplishment by your supposed (and mostly nonexistent except as screeching gnats) "left" ... or ALL of their accomplismnets... that did as muich good as the Infrastructure Act and the other 2021-22 Pelosi bills. passed in close consultation with Liz & Bernie & Stacey and AOC etc...
Bet you can't name ONE provision of those bills right now. Nor the many consensus reforms that will be rushed the minute the coalition regains power... despite your harmful yammerings.
http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2019/08/five-devastating-rebuttals-to-use-with.html
...ALL of them are coalition builders and all would call you a frippy splitter who at best harms us for the sake of jerking off. Though I disagree with them. Because increasingly the better theory is that you are a Putin troll Kremlin basement dweller.
Tho the Teen Vogue thing was actually interesting.
A woman in my writing group posted a picture of herself wearing guillotine earrings on Facebook more than a year ago.
She thinks there shouldn't be any billionaires. I don't agree with this conclusion. To me, it depends on how you make your money. I can certainly understand the sentiment when we're talking about people who sell coercive products. For example, the executive who jacked up the prices for the epi-pen in return for a 40 million or so bonus made her money not through creation or competition. Instead, she made that money through exploiting loopholes in patent law and health care regulations known as the "end of patent problem."
OTH, billionaire writer JK Rowling made her money in an entirely non-coercive way: creating a fictional universe that delighted so many people she created a massive demand for books, movies, theme parts, and branded consumer goods built upon that universe. While many left-wingers are now mad at her for her positions on trans ideology, there was nothing unsavory about the way she made her fortune.
No one NEEDS to read a Harry Potter novel, therefore her billions didn't come from coercive exploitation of human necessities. On the other hand, the manufacturer of tnf-blocker Enbrel has made a mockery of patent law. At this point, it appears they will extend that patent monopoly to 34 years through various "new uses" and other exceptions to the 20-year limit.
Btw, Enbrel costs something like 5k a month (primarily used to treat rheumatoid arthritis). Pretty disgusting to see those profit margins when they build upon publicly-funded basic science research.
So, I can see the anti-oligarch sentiment building to French Revolution levels while not entirely agreeing with them.
David, you have shown that you are not a trustworthy ally. Over and over.
You howl at me because you do not like when I point out how far your nose is up oligarch techboi ass.
And how much personal responsibility you bear for enabling them, over and over.
It is not coalition splitting to point out how bad *your* judgment is, David.
You are not my coalition.
You are part of what must be defeated.
The utter idiocy of your support for DoJ / IARPA-types who *always* put party loyalty to the GOP over respect for law & order.
Your personal groveling to any billionaire that hawks your books to his classes.
Your blind worship of the world's richest man right up to the point he was giving Nazi salutes (and since that event too, don't think that is not noticed, despite your claims to have broken ties).
David, you are not on the team you claim to fight for.
Either you are a world-class chump at character judgment or a quisling.
Either way, you should not be a pundit for *my* coalition.
To me, it depends on how you make your money.
Anti-billionaire sentiment depends on two things, not just one.
How you make your money, and/or how you use your money. The latter is analogous to using super powers for good or evil.
The example I think of for "how you made your money" is Bill Gates vs Mitt Romney. Bill Gates created a useful product that transformed civilization. Mitt Romney made a fortune by walling money off from the commons.
My example for "how you use your money" is Illinois Governor J B Pritzker. The fact that he's a billionaire doesn't detract from the fact that he uses his powers for good. When he ran against the former governor, Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner, many liberals complained that there is no difference between one billionaire and another. They were wrong. Rauner wanted to destroy unions*. Pritzker defends liberal values against Trump.
Elon Musk is an example of someone who made (at least some of) his money honestly but now uses it for evil. J K Rowling may have become villainous in the esteem of some, but isn't particularly using her money for evil.
* I'll give Rauner credit for never embracing Trump, even though their terms overlapped. Rauner was a Mitt Romney type Republican when it came to business, but he was no social extremist, and he even signed the bill that repealed Illinois's "trigger law" which would otherwise have outlawed abortion once Roe went away.
PERFECT! With every word and sentence you prove you are the enemy of every single thing you claim to support. Sure, we say that same thing to each other! Except for this. I demanded resort to facts.
-That AOC, Bernie, Liz, Stacey, Jaime Harrison (the latter two were DNC chairs) help maintain the coalition that *I* call for. Your supposed heroes side with me.
-That you - a raving ignoramus - know nothing about the 2021-22 Pelosi bills, how many good things they contained. Or what they had planned together next... or what we'll do if our coalition wins... which will include lots of PRAGMATIC reforms to prevent today's inferno of horrors from recurring..
The gist, you are a liar idiot. None of the things you said about me, above, are remotely true. You are our locumranch from the left. Or rather 'left' since you could not cite anything by Marx and are likely just a kremlin boy.
Is this a good time to talk about FORTH? ;-)
JV - on billionaires. You bring up the argument of what you might call the humanist—adjacent billionaire. I don’t disagree with anything you said about Rowlings and her attainment of wealth. But if I *wanted* to argue for with you on this (which I don’t) I would attack “her billions didn’t come from coercive exploitation of human necessities.” I would take the “Mother Teressa was a friend of poverty, not the poor” approach.
It's interesting to pause and to do some arithmetic with Buffet, Gates (who pledge to give 99% of their earnings to charity) and Rowling who has given +200 million and is worth 1.2 billion —and think about just how much the philanthropists *need* to hang on to — which I suppose they’d argue is necessary in order to keep invested to perpetuate the continuation of their charity work. I wonder how many people (excluding this forum) stop to savvy that 1% of a billion is 10 million. Compare that 1% to the lifetime earnings of an average American who started working in 1983 and retires this year.
I just don’t think the exceptional philanthropic billionaire refutes the argument for some sort of salary cap.
The Christmas season is approaching (plus a certain feast?) so by all means go forth and swap t'il you drop.
Ha ha! Just duck a bit when the spittle flies. 8)
Oddly enough, though, I AM getting more coding done recently. Not FORTH of course. Just Java... because I'm comfortable there.
The 'philanthropic billionaire' argument covers just enough ground to refute the 'kill the billionaires' argument... not salary caps.
The better argument against salary caps is to pay attention to who gets to enforce them, when, and how. Our elected officials are all (mostly) rich people. Trusting them to decide who does NOT get rich is essentially what we'd be doing. Makes me wonder how they'd decide. THEN there is also the issue of enforcement. Someone has to do that too.
Der Oger has a fair point. Radicalization might be the wrong word. Sorta.
What I'm seeing looks more like a Calling to Duty. If I were a religious guy, I'd might use metaphors like "Seeing the Light" and "Moved by a Higher Purpose".
De Tocqueville explained it well enough many generations ago, but in modern language it boils down to us still being barbarians at heart.
Glimmers of the gravity lasers – ‘grazer’ – plot elements of my novel EARTH. Unlike gravity wave detectors like LIGO, quantized units - gravitons — 'may one day enable gravity to be controlled like electromagnetism is today.”
https://physics.aps.org/articles/v18/175
To me the 'philanthropic billionaire' argument is a nothingburger
A more cogent argument is that an individual "can" do things that a "corporate entity" will NOT do
Today Elon Musk is the poster child of that argument
With Tesla and SpaceX he has moved humanity forwards
IMHO he should be permitted to continue on that path
The problem is that in order for that to happen in today's system he needs to "own" an incredible amount of wealth
To me we need a different model where somebody can lead the charge on things that we need without having to actually "Own" that resource
A good post overall with the following inaccuracies & misstatements:
To those of you expressing despair at this point, I say get a grip. We have many institutions and professionals who stand between us and looming tyranny.
This is false, as the so-called Protector Castes have no general constitutional duty to protect individual citizens from harm, even though the duty of law enforcement is typically owed to the public at large, but not to any specific person. This is also is known as the "public duty doctrine".
This principle has been affirmed in the following Supreme Court cases:
(1) DeShaney v. Winnebago County Department of Social Services (1989), which ruled that the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment does not require the state to protect any individual from violence or harm that may be committed by a third party;
(2) Town of Castle Rock v. Gonzales (2005), which ruled that a person did not have a "property interest" in the enforcement of a restraining order and, therefore, could not sue the police for failing to protect her and her children from her estranged husband, who abducted and murdered them;
(3) Warren v. District of Columbia (1981), a D.C. Court of Appeals case which ruled that the police have a general "public duty," but no specific legal duty exists to provide protection to any individual citizen.
Adam Smith’s (...) flat-fair-broad and joyful competitiveness that happens when ALL children rise up fed and educated and confident, exactly what Friedrich Hayek recommended
This is also false, as Adam Smith advocated for SOCIALISM, a political system that Hayek thought 'unworkable' and famously described as 'leading to serfdom', adding that 'socialists wouldn't be socialists if they understood economics'. Hayek also claimed that communism leads to fascism, rather than the opposite.
What do the above misconceptions have in common?
They both confuse *non-biological altruism* with *kin selection*, the former being a discredited moral fiction and the latter being a well-supported evopsych principle.
Once upon a time, there were probably few observable differences between moral altruism & genetic kin selection, but that was back when societies & nations still had high levels of genetic homogeneity, as opposed to the chaos of imposed genetic diversity which now forces every individual to ruthlessly COMPETE AGAINST every other individual in society.
What comes next is extremely ugly and your only chance is to tribe up & surround yourself with kin because your kin is the only Protector Caste that you can actually rely on, lest you become yet another diversity-based statistic.
Especially now, as our flawed legal system increasingly considers 'self-defense' to be an unacceptable 'Act of Violence'.
Best
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