Space news! Artemis and the planned 'base'... Slashing NASA science... and no, Avi. It wasn't ET.

Well, well. I'm glad the Artemis crew made it home safe! And yes, this updated/repeat of 1968's Apollo 8 sure was a bit bigger and spiffier!*  

Is it churlish of me to grumble that it launched atop a sewn-together Saturn/Shuttle hybrid rocket that has no future? 

A rocket that did accomplish its main goal -- 30 years of grift by 20 senators for home state contractors? Our $100+ billions spent on a long-obsolete white elephant that nudged 1970s technology forward by millimeters and soon will be abandoned forever?

Money that might instead have been spent on hundreds of enabling technologies that we'll need, in order to actually build a working moon base? We don't have any of them, alas. Almost any. Though the 'plans' currently issued sure are lovely artist conceptions! Without the slightest meat or plausibility. 

(If you are curious about some of those potential and even plausible technologies, drop by the site of NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC) - https://www.nasa.gov/niac-funded-studies/ )

But let's look at the bright side! The mission was a terrific show! it re-triggered our fond dreams for a while, distracting us from a dismally terrifying year.*  

Alas, I can't be a pollyanna for long. Just look ====>   at a long list of science that's being slashed in order to pay for a repeat of Apollo 11. Not just science (the enemy) but also tools we need in order to nail down the effects of climate change. All supposedly in order to pay for another fopotprint stunt on a plain of poison dust.

Justifications? Don't you dare utter the incantation-mantra "lunar resources.' Or 'Helium Three!!'  I will so smack you.

(* Just like Apollo 8, Artemis II launched in a time of wretched, even unprecedented tension. Indeed, this is the first year that I have seen that rivals in fateful dread that terrifying 1968. 

(But we did persevere past that one. And we'll do it again.)
 

== No, Avi. they're all just (interstellar) comets ==

I restrained myself from commenting on the third ‘hyperbolic-interstellar object’ that was caught plummeting into the solar system, some months back. But sorry, I have an itch to scratch and it must be said.

Yes, these cosmic visitors appear to have some differences from our home grown solar system comets. You would expect iceballs born in a different protostellar nebula to have chemical variations.

Example? Nickel was detected in the coma of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, far more of it than in our own, home-grown comets, plus several other oddities that offer clues to another system formation, near another star. Though it still acted generally like a comet.  And hence… no…  the third-discovered hyperbolic interstellar object, streaking into the Solar System was not a probe by little silver guys! 

Alas, of course, Harvard Professor Avi Loeb leaped to attribute any unusual trait to “it’s aliens!” Though as a comet expert, I demur. (My doctoral dissertaion was about comets. as was a1985 novel, Heart of the Comet.) And even the logic is so weird. (A 'sneak-spy' probe that announces itself garishly and has no plausible path to achieve any spying? Ummm)

 Never mind that implausible silliness. Soon, it's likely that the Vera Rubin Telescope will reveal many more of these visitors. And from their spectra alone, we'll learn a lot!

 == But will we ever get to study one up close? ==

It’s hard to study such interlopers.  They are, after all, sweeping in at interstellar "hyperbolic' speeds! Scott Manley explains it well (Though confusing two orbital mechanics terms.)

What Scott didn't know about is the Linares Statite. This was among my favorite projects during the 12 years I served on the advisory external council of NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC).  I deem the Linares Statite to be by far the best way to have probes ready to swoop past the sun and then streak ahead to meet objects like this. Using NO FUEL. Have a look.  

The Linares Statite would use a big solar sail to hover on sunlight, way out at the asteroid belt, without any Keplerian lateral velocity -- (It does take some explaining) -- ready to fold its wings and dive like a peregrine falcon past the sun to catch up with almost anything, such as another 'Oumuamua interstellar visitor. 

Slava Turyshev's Project Sundiver has shown that you get a lot of speed if you snap open the sail at nearest solar passage. In fact it is the best way to streak to the Kuiper Belt. Or even beyond!

And that's the sort of thing we could be doing.

      == Elsewhere in the solar system ==

Over the years, astronomers have spotted holes and large pits dotting Venus’ surface, suggesting the existence of lava tubes. Venusian lava tubes may be especially large and arrayed along volcano rims; they may be some of the most extensive subsurface cavities in the solar system. 

And this relates to plans for either moon or Mars bases. Because we know of many such pits in both places and one imagines they might be perfect places for human-occupied bases!  Since they offer safety from radiation and from thermal cycles...

... and sending robots to explore these sites (and leave little flags to prevent rivals claiming them) would have made a lot of sense. Instead of raving about 'lunar bases' without the needed techs or even a clue where the best places would be.

     == Addenda to give hope (a little) in interesting times ==

According to Peter Diamandis: "Renewables just crossed 49.4% of global electricity capacity. 

"Let me say that again: nearly half of all electricity generation capacity on Earth is now renewable. Solar drove 75% of new additions, bringing the total to 5.15 terawatts. We’re at the halfway mark and the curve is accelerating. 

"This isn’t some future projection. This is today. The energy transition is already here."  

Pakistan is now generating most of its energy via solar. Solar is exploding across Africa. Several European nations achieve total-sustainables several days a year. 

 And want some irony? TEXAS is gradually getting used to the fact that abundant wind and sunlight are making it the leading state in producing sustainable energy! Non-carbon energy generation that the state's politicians fought desperately to sabotage, in Washington DC. Irony abounds.

Diamandis adds: "The average price of a two-carat lab-grown diamond has fallen below $1,000: down 80% since January 2020. Compare that to a natural diamond at $22,000 to $28,000 for the same size."

Peter has long lists of cool tech news to support his evangelical notions about a looming age of abundance, in which we'll have to devise new kinds of VAT taxes just to prevent major deflation! (Thus funding Universal Basic Income (UBI) that he and many others propose.)

I go into a lot of that -- not quite as giddy optimistic -- in my new book on artificial intelligence... ailien minds!

   

               ailien minds

 

    Optimists foretell a golden age of Al-managed abundance. 

    Doomers cry: vast cyber-minds will crush old style humanity! ... or make us irrelevant. 

    Meanwhile, geniuses fostering the artificial intelligence boom. cling to clichés rooted in our dismal past... or else in cheap sci-fi. 

    Is there still time for perspective? 

- on 4 billion years of evolution 

- or 60 centuries of wretched feudalism 

- or how we handled prior tech revolutions 

- or mistakes that keep getting repeated 

- or ways this time may be different?  

    From Al-driven unemployment to deceitful images, to hallucinating LLMs and tools for tyrants... to potential wondrous gifts by machines of loving grace... come see future paths that evade the standard ruts.