Saturday, November 15, 2025

Aggressive Agility: Turn the GOP's Most Successful Political Ploy Against Them

Here begins a three-parter that merits old-fashioned reading and contemplation, about how to fix the Democrats' greatest disadvantage. 

Despite being far less corrupt and immensely more ethical, with a vast range of policies that poll far better among Americans... and despite Democratic administrations having universally better outcomes, re: economics, progress and even deficits... Democrats suffer one crucial disadvantage. When it comes to polemical/political tactics, they are absolute dunces.

Hence, let's dissect the most aggressively successful tactical-political ploy of the last 40 years. And see what we can learn from it.


  PONDERING AN UNUSUAL TACTIC FOR DEMOCRATS:

ISSUE A "BETTER CONTRACT FOR AMERICA"

or... A Newer Deal...

   

by David Brin

 (1st version February 2006, revised October 2025)

 

 Today’s partisans – both Democrats and Republicans – will snort at the title of this proposal. To study one of the most successful political tactics of the modern era. 


 If anyone remembers the "Republican Contract with America" at all, it’s viewed as a ploy by Newt Gingrich and colleagues to sway the 1994 mid-terms. 


A Potemkin pretense at reform, that served to cover their true agenda.  


It worked! At achieving Newt’s short term goal – taking power in Congress. Though soon a radicalized GOP – some of them newly elected to Congress thanks to Gingrich’s tactic – would betray and eject him as Speaker of the House, swapping in Dennis Hastert, first in a long chain of perverted psychopaths.[1] 


They also cynically tossed every reform that that Newt had promised.


 Today’s Democrats recall his “Contract” as both a painful defeat and flagrant hypocrisy. 

 To the scandal-ridden Republicans of 2025, it’s a hoary anecdote – relic of a bygone era, when they still felt compelled to at least feign serious intent. 


 Sure, parties often post platforms or lists of intent. Some of them made a difference in their day. FDR’s New Deal and LBJ’s Great Society, for example**. But none in recent memory had the clarity and instant political effects of the Gingrich ‘contract.’


 Hence, I propose that we study it for use – with both honest intent and ironic satire – by the other side! I’ll include at least thirty possibilities, any one of which might be political gold. 


 Though, alas, none of them is on the horizon of any Democratic politician.

 

---------------------

 

THE THREE PARTS

 

I.   A rumination:  Might Democrats help clarify their differences from the GOP with their own Newest… or Best Deal for the American People?

 

II.  A compact copy of the 1994 “Republican Contract with America” appraising how every part was betrayed.  

 

III.  A Draft “Democratic Newest Deal for the American People.”  

  

---------------------

 

So, for now, let’s commence with Part One.

 

I.           Might the Democratic Party help clarify its opposition to the gone-mad GOP, by reminding, comparing and contrasting to the “Contract with America”?

 

Our generation’s hard task is to end phase nine of the US Civil War and restore sanity to American political life. Not just for liberals, Democrats and blue state moderates, but also for honest libertarians, greens, fiscal conservatives, Goldwater conservatives, constitutionalist conservatives, actual 'leftists' and anyone else who wants a nation run by grownups, instead of loony toddlers and criminals. 

Alas, too many delight prematurely in the current President's falling poll numbers. Democrats may retake a chamber of Congress in 2026 or the presidency in 2028. (There are scenarios where turnover could happen earlier.[2]) But even those victories will remain sterile, unless we calm rifts of hatred that were ignited first by Hastert and Karl Rove, then more poisonously by the entire Fox-o-sphere.

 

Many liberal activists foresee such a memic victory "if only we refine our message," while shrugging-off the hard work of studying and refining! Instead, far too many just double down on what did not work last time. Meanwhile the neoconservative movement – then its Trumpist heir – assiduously spent decades and billions reinventing themselves after defeats in 1964 and 1974 and 2008.

 

Democrats may need to be just as inventive.

 

 

    == What the Gingrich Republicans did, and why they hope you forgot ==

 

No current GOP leader would mention the words “Contract with America.” They recall the punishment that they implicitly accepted, if they betrayed their promises! And so, Let’s remind the public of that!

 

Specifically, there may be an opportunity to:


1.   Learn from a clever methodology and message,

2.   Spur public revulsion by highlighting betrayed GOP promises, 

3.  Show sincerity by including some ideas from better versions of conservatism,

4.  Crystallize a reinvigorated liberalism that might go down well with U.S. Voters.

 

Next time, I will append a truncated summary of Gingrich’s original “Contract with America,” which divides into three categories.[3]  


 * Good ideas that seemed reasonable then, because they were reasonable.  Promises the neocon-GOP quickly betrayed, and that later MAGA mutants would denounce as commie-Soros plotting! 


Only, suppose Democrats offer honest conservatives a chance to do these good ideas right. Especially public accountability, e.g. by instituting measures like the Inspector General of the United States (IGUS), and permanent subpoena power for the Congressional minority. (See Part Three.)  


 * Conservative ideas that Democrats disagree-with, but seemed at least sincere.  These, too, were mostly betrayed. Only we might now say that Democrats are willing to negotiate, if decent conservatives show the guts to step up with reason and good will. Starting by recanting Trumpism.


 * Dismal/horrid stuff. Endeavors aimed only at benefiting fat cats and aristocrats and thieves.Notably, some of these planks actually took effect. Any new Democratic “deal” would replace them with excellent liberal ideas.


By adopting the good parts, and offering to negotiate some other conservative wants, we’re seen reaching out to millions of decent American conservatives who are uncomfortable with Trumpism, but who stay in the Foxite tent, fearing a strawman of intransigent “commie liberals.” Then, by replacing aristocracy-friendly planks with some that actually benefit our children, we emphasize basic differences that make Democrats the party of smart compassion. 


Some will carp this as copycat imitation! So, test it in focus groups! Will folks appreciate the aggressive irony? Rubbing GOP/maga noses into their own hypocrisy? [4] While clearly reaching out for accommodation with all sincere Americans. Go ahead. Glance at the ‘94 “Contract” (next posting).  I’ll be interested which parts people deem worthy of adoption, modification, satire, or fierce repudiation.


Above all, this is a test of your curiosity. Together let’s interrogate a brilliant maneuver that tricked millions of your fellow citizens. One of many that are still used today. Tricks that will never be defeated until we find the patience to study them.


--------------------    ------------------------   --------------------


[1] Soon after issuing the “contract” and leading the GOP to victory, Gingrich was jettisoned by his own party as Speaker of the House, because – despite fierce and sometimes fulminating partisanship - Newt did want to legislate!. Which meant negotiation with Bill Clinton, achieving bipartisan marvels like the Budget Act and welfare reform. And that very bipartisanship was his undoing! His sin, according to the new GOP super-radicals. 

Look up Dennis Hastert, who replaced Newt G as Speaker, making Hastert titular head of their party, two heartbeats from the presidency! Hastert was later convicted and imprisoned for gross sexual predation on children. He also instituted the “Hastert Rules,” which ban any Republican office-holder from ever negotiating with Democrats, for any reason including the national interest, or even having friendships with them, ever again.

[2] Before that? Well, it’s remotely possible. Say, if major revelations like Epstein kompromat were to stoke just twenty or so House and Senate Republicans to find the sanity, decency, patriotism and guts to secede from their party’s orgy of treason. It is theoretically possible they might work with Democrats to replace the current gang with some residually honorable Republicans, perhaps in the mold of Eisenhower, who would try to unite America and return its government to adult supervision.  One can dream.

[3] For a detailed appraisal of how neoconservatives re-invented themselves, learning masterful techniques for attaining power over all three branches of government, see my prescient article from 2006: The Republican Party's Mutant Re-Invention: How they Accomplished it....and What Democrats Must Do In Order to Catch Up.

[4] For example, the whole bizarre notion that America’s military readiness increased under Republican control merits scathing rebuttal!  We are less ready for an emergency now, under GOP scatterbrained shills who have dispersed even most of the officers charged with intel on terrorism threats(!) than we were before 9/11. This is an issue that could truly pry some conservatives away from the GOP!

 ** Both massive programs - the New Deal and Great Society - invested heavily in – and transformed – the poorest parts of the nation, which today suffer from ingratitude-amnesia, alas.

32 comments:

duncan cairncross said...

Dr Brin
Your - 500,000 voters can select a representative - is remarkably close to what we have - MMP
https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp/

It's not quite the same - we do vote for a "Party" rather than an individual - but any organisation that is willing to register and then gets over 5% of the vote (which is IMHO a mistake - we should have a 1% limit not a 5% limit) gets several MPs

This is in addition to the MPs for each district

Larry Hart said...

Der Oger previous post:

It seems that the DOJ under Garland had a lot of material on Trump and Epstein.
Why did they not do anything with it?
Is there a practical or sensible reason not to persecute a sex offender?


Epstein was already in prison by that time, right? So do you mean "Why did they not do anything against Trump?"

The cynical answer is that Democrats are notoriously squeamish about using the justice system against political opponents, because they will be called out for being political even if the target deserves the scrutiny. Republicans have no such qualms, but Democrats have plenty.

There might be a more practical reason, though. From what I've read, the prosecutor in the case against Jeffrey Epstein made a deal that exempts any and all confederates of Epstein's from being further investigated or prosecuted. That would include DJT, and may even eventually force them to release Ghislaine Maxwell.

ozajh said...

Dr Brin,

(And please note that I'm Australian of UK heritage, so I might make a huge blunder through cultural or political unfamiliarity, like I did when I got flamed off DailyKos many years ago.)

Anyway, it seems to me that one thing the Democrats need to do is plan some DRAMATIC change that they can force through next time they're in power, and which they can ensure that even the most unaware beneficiaries will identify with the party. This can produce a reliable medium-term majority from a portion of the electorate.

Examples:
- The New Deal led to comfortable Democratic House majorities for decades.
- The Voting Rights Act led to a large percentage of African-Americans voting from then until now for the Democrats, who until then had been identified as the racist party. (Unfortunately, it also led to the Southern Strategy.)

IMHO Health Care offers the most obvious opportunity, especially if the Republicans succeed in gutting the present arrangements and a large number of Republican voters suddenly hit the FO part of FAFO. Maybe Democrats should then go for broke, start running on Medicare-for-All, and call the thing Democare. (For those of you who say Medicare-for-All's fiscally impossible, we've had it here in Australia for 40 years and spend a lower percentage of GDP on Health than the US. Granted, the introduction BASICALLY had bipartisan support, so it wasn't seen as particularly benefitting either side of politics.)

Slim Moldie said...

To contextualize reexamine the timeline.
2006 Epstein charged with soliciting prostitution
2007-2008 Epstein and U.S. attorney in Florida Alex Acosta made secret non-prosecution agreement.
2011-2019 current US AG Pam Bondi/T personal lawyer serves as Florida AG and Epstein case is not aggressively pursued at state level.
Jan 2017 T begins office.
May 2019 Z elected.
July 2019 Epstein arrested
Aug 2019 Epstein found in jail cell having hung himself.
February 2020 impeachment trial #1
_________________________________
July 2020 Ghislaine Maxwell arrested by FBI
Jan 6 2021 T invites tourists to visit capital
___________________________
Jan 20, 2021 B begins office
February 2021 Impeachment trial #2
March 2021 Russian military build-up near Ukraine.
December 2021 Ghislaine Maxwell found guilty of sex trafficking and conspiracy to sexually abuse minors
2021 - Covid - ends as deadliest year in U.S history.
February 2022 Russia invades Ukraine
June 2022 Maxwell sentenced.
March-November 2024 Maxwell appeals conviction in Second Circuit Court of Appeals and is denied
_______________
November 6 2024 T is president elect.

Maxwell was already facing charges when Biden took office and DOJ upheld its legal and ethical obligations during Maxwell’s trial and appeals and refrained from dumping evidence that might prejudice a jury. During the lame duck period you could argue that Biden should have used the dubious immunity ruling and made an official act to release the evidence, but from what I’ve read DOJ and law makers were also concerned the victims might face retaliation and intimidation from allies of the perpetrators.

Alan Brooks said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Der Oger said...

Larry, Slim Moldie, thank you both.

Larry Hart said...

One quibble:

Aug 2019 Epstein found in jail cell having hung himself.

Assumes facts not in evidence. "having appeared to have hung himself" is more accurate, but I'd go with "having been made to appear as if he hung himself." Occam's Razor and all.

(A completely separate quibble: Why are people so snotty about insisting that the correct verb is "hanged" when "he hung himself" rolls so easily and unquestioned off of the tongue, and (I think) the British sentence goes, "where you will be hung by the neck until you are dead"?)

Der Oger said...

To say the quiet part out loud:
I would not be surprised if they fear that not only raping minors comes to light, but also whatever they did to cover up things, including murdering people.
That, or Epstein mocks Trump for erectile dysfunction.

Alan Brooks said...

Probably his best piece:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/11/14/united-states-national-debt-trillions/

David Brin said...

While some of you ponder my 3 part posting about potential Democratic tactics (linked), here's my answer to Robert Reich's atypically insipid "they caved!" shouts at Schumer and agile Democratic tacticians: I am disappointed in Reich this time, joining (appended below) nescient chorus of "Schumer caved!"
 I expected Reich to lay down the many tradeoffs that led the Democratic Party caucus to tactically end the Shutdown. By any metric it was the right choice.

1. Public blame for the shut-down did fall harder on the GOP, leading to enhanced Democratic victories in the off-year elections. Fine. But that bolt was shot. Re-use it in January - the next (very soon) shut-down - which will be closer to primary season, when there can be another round of political setbacks for Trumpism.

2. People were suffering and dying due to a now-pointless shut-down. If planes started crashing, blame would fall on Democrats to a wholly unpredictable degree.

3. Irreplaceable civil servants - thousands daily - were leaving government permanently, for the sake of their families. And note this: to Republicans this was a FEATURE, not a bug. Estimates ranged as  high as 100,000 irreplaceable experts in every area needed by decent government...

4. ... including members of the Protector Caste! Military officers, FBI, Intelligence agencies and especially counter-terrorism groups, which had already been reamed and partially gelded by Kremlin-connected cabinet appointments.If another 9/11 trauma happens soon (and there are glimmer-indications) some blame will deservedly fall upon us, amplified by Foxite faux-patriots.

With Trump in panic mode, his gang may be hoping for the 'unifying' spirit that benefited Bush in 2001. Dems should be prepared and primed to point and shout "YOU did this!" and not be seen as part of the reason.

5. GOPpers know that Dems always manage government finances better, including debt and deficits... and Dems are always bad at conveying this point!  This time it will be blatant. An extended shut-down gives Republicans "savings' to use as a counter-flow to their tsunami of red ink. There is no reason to give them that.

6. Exactly WHAT does RR - or anyone howling "Schumer caved!" actually expect the Senators could have got as concessions? If they held out till 2035 or 2235, please tell us what the monstrously un-empathic, unreasonable and incredibly LAZY Congressional GOP would ever have given?

7. As-is, the Dems got Congress back in session, Grijalva sworn-in, committees meeting and leaking Epstein docs and so on. And Dems can hit this bruise again in January!

The list actually goes on a bit more. 

In fact, I saw only one potential silver lining... if a majority of Governors were to call a plenary of the National Governors' Association* and be seen meeting to discuss their problems outside of DC, it might have offered a glimmer of light in the darkness, especially since maybe 1/3 of the Republican governors appear to be somewhat sane adults.

THAT would be more than just a gesture, but a glove cast onto the ground before our enemies who have conquered the nation's capital in phase 9 of the American Civil War. We are resilient. We have alternatives. And as America showed after its nadir of 1863, we'll be back.

*https://www.nga.org

Larry Hart said...

1. Public blame for the shut-down did fall harder on the GOP, leading to enhanced Democratic victories in the off-year elections.

I'm pleasantly surprised that it happened that way, as Republicans usually win that sort of messaging war. Take Sean Hannity (please!). Stephanie Miller owned his ass on FOX a few nights back, but one of the points he tried to make was that she should thank DJT and Mike Jonhson for re-opening the government. When she tried to counter that Republicans own all branches of government, he chided her that everyone knows there is such thing as the filibuster and that Democrats were the ones holding out.

One point of the filibuster--or of regular voting back when the parties weren't in complete lock-step with each other--was that to win a vote, you often give the other side something they want to get them on board. By passing a House bill that Democrats could not get behind and then leaving town, Republicans were being the obstructionists, not Democrats.

An extreme example to make a point: Suppose the House passed a CR that kept the government open but also restricted the voting franchise to white men only. Of course, no Democrats would vote for such a thing. That does not make Democrats the ones refusing to fund the government. And while the actual House CR wasn't that insidious, we're talking matters of degree.

Der Oger said...

Those who oppose Schumer say that the Senate Democrats caved to their donors, not for any other reason.
(A statement I observed from multiple sources, not my opinion.)

scidata said...

Yudkowsky & Soares' "IF ANYONE BUILDS IT, EVERYONE DIES" is #1 on Amazon's AI list, don't know about NYT. What a great title (BS, but very dramatic BS). The audiobook is narrated by Rafe Beckley, so I'll be going that route.

Don't know the title of OGH's upcoming AI book. "Why GenAI Shouldn't Code" is my suggestion :)

Larry Hart said...

"IF ANYONE BUILDS IT, EVERYONE DIES" is #1 on Amazon's AI list,

Sounds like both Amazon and AI should each have a chapter in the book.

duncan cairncross said...

Just a thought - which goes with OGH's comments about transparency
Non-Disclosure Agreements
These appear to be far far more common than they should be - the laws around them should be looked at - and if they are hiding a crime they should automatically become null and void

David Brin said...

Duncan, by coincidence tightly retraining NDAs is a line item in my own "contract' proposal.

Celt said...

Meanwhile, we look at an over valued stock market with astronomical P/E ratios this explains why the stock market hasn't crashed yet (but when it does it may be bad, 2008 bad):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYiFMkkQrYs&t=29s

esla's P/E is 257 - that's crazy.

It's also indicative of how the stock market is being kept up artificially.

So a 50% crash next year is very possible

But then again, this AI bubble involving Ponzi-scheme circular financing between just 7 companies all gambling on the unproven technology of AI acting as the only pole holding up the American economic tent has one difference than 2008.

This bubble is mostly self financed by cash squirreled away by these same for tax reasons in off shore banks, mostly in Ireland, over the past few decades.

So unlike 2008, or the dot com crash, this is not financed by outside investors.

In this case, the casino is playing with its own money.

And the usual trigger for a crash, loss of consumer purchasing power or debt, no longer matters since the top 10% of the rich control 60% of the purchasing power and 90% of the wealth in our K-shaped economy.

Ordinary Americans simply don't matter economically anymore.

Unemployment? Consumer sentiment? Private debt? Investors no longer give a shit because they are miniscule compared to the wealth of the 10%.

So its possible that the elites can keep this charade going on for a long, long time.

Until they quietly divest to a new bunch of suckers and prepare to shirt the market right before it crashes.

Sadly, even after a major crash there won't be any investment better than the US stock market.

And the cycle will begin again.

So what to do?

What you don't do is panic.

Follow the footsteps of Warren Buffet.

He has increased Berkshire Hathaway's cash position from 13% to 30% of assets.

Do NOT sell your stock when the market crashes (and if you just have a 401K, stop your withdrawals)

You would be selling low after purchasing high - a proven recipe for poverty.

Keep calm and ride out the storm.

Except for 1929 and 2008 most stock market crashes recover in 6 to 12 months.

Government can be expected to intervene on behalf of the rich (the people they actually work for) with taxpayer money, and the recovery should occur faster than the historical average.

If you are Joe Homeowner or Jane Retired, create a cash defense that will allow you to pay your bills for 12 months (YMMV) without taking anything out of your 401k.

The crash will be an excellent buying opportunity "on the dip"

That's how Warren Buffet became rich.

scidata said...

For my part, the basic irrationality isn't the P/E ratios, it's the misnomer of calling it AI at all. It's algorithmic token wrangling using vast compute. It's clever, but is it art?

locumranch said...

Rumour has it the Bernie Madoff never solicited investments from his potential targets, marks & victims, but forced his grasping victims to beg for entry into these massive Ponzi schemes, so why is it that I have an overwhelming sense of deju vu as I watch the Epstein Document scandal unfold in realtime on France24?

To put it another way, Trump's apparently irrational actions regarding the Epstein Documents make perfect sense in a Confidence Game framework, from the initial 'Put-Up' to the the 'Play', the 'Hook', the 'Touch' & finally the 'Blow-Off', and a thing of beauty it is, as it parallels the 1973 Academy Award-winning film 'The Sting' (with the Democrats playing the role of the greedy mark as portrayed by Robert Shaw).

And, with the pending congressional vote on the release of the Epstein documents -- which will undoubtedly harm Democrats much more than it harms Trump or the GOP -- the 'The Touch' appears to be imminent.

Compare Slim_M's timeline to 'The Confidence Game' & its stages if you doubt me. And bring popcorn. Lots of popcorn.


Best
______

Yes, I said it -- Trump is a CONFIDENCE MAN -- otherwise know as a fraud, a thief, a swindler, a crook... BUT, what our foreign friends don't know is that 'The Confidence Man' is a much respected figure in American literature and mythology, as first immortalized by Herman Melville in 1857 in a novel of the same name. I highly recommend it.

Larry Hart said...

Full on 1984 territory:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/11/18/us/trump-epstein-files-news

...
In the House, the sole lawmaker to vote “no” was Representative Clay Higgins, a far-right Republican from Louisiana. The vote was 427-1.

Even as all of them voted to demand the release of the files, Republican leaders dismissed the measure as a “political show vote” driven by Democrats who were only feigning interest in the Epstein saga in the hopes of inflicting political damage on Mr. Trump.
...
Acknowledging the reason he had tried for months to keep the bill off the floor, Mr. Johnson said he had no choice but to support a piece of legislation he considered deeply flawed because of the political blowback he would receive for voting no.
...
Unwilling to take what was certain to be a humiliating loss on the House floor, Mr. Trump then reversed himself on the matter and called on his party to back the bill.

Many Republicans in Congress followed suit, embracing a bill they claimed to have supported all along.

In their upside-down telling, Mr. Trump had consistently fought for the release of the Epstein files. And so had they.
...
“It is a hoax by the Democrats against Trump,” Mr. Nehls said on Monday evening, lighting a cigar on the steps of the Capitol.

So then why support it?

“Why not?” he replied. “Trump said just release the damn files. He said do it — release the damn files.”


Republicans have less dignity than my cats.

Larry Hart said...

Not to bury the lead...
"The vote was 427-1." !!!

David Brin said...

See, I really should not do this. Generally, I skim locum in 2 secs to see if he is in one of his glimmer-sapience phases. But I keep doing it because they do happen. And this is one of them (above.)

Oh, he's still a delusional nutter. But on this occasion he (1) does not attribute to me or any of you vicious strawman lie-hallucinations and (2) he poses an amusing scenario that would be logically consistent, if remotely true,

It's not, of course. Locum must believe that only a genius shyster could have fooled him and millions of other Trumpists for so long...

...rather than admit that a conman can also be a talented idiot and succeed, if Locum and millions of fellow cultists in the Fox Nuremberg rally are even WORSE i***ts...

... propelled by delight that their leader so enrages all the smartypants fact people. Sorry. My theory works better. But yours at least (on this rare occasion) was a hypothesis with the trait of model internal consistency.

A.F. Rey said...

The big difference, locum, is that the Democrats know he's a confidence man, and are expecting him to try to swindle us. Praemonitus praemunitus. We are constantly guessing what his game is and how we might lose.

The real marks are the ones who don't realize they are being swindled until it is too late. They are the most vulnerable ones, the ones who trust him the most and don't think he'll ever try to swindle or betray them. They are the ones who should be most worried.

In our little domestic drama, who do you think fits that description? ;)

A.F. Rey said...

And the Senate has already signed the bill to release the Epstein files.

https://www.axios.com/2025/11/18/senate-uc-epstein-files-passes-trump-desk?utm_social_handle_id=800707492346925056&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_social_post_id=578304322&utm_source=x&utm_source=x&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=organic_social

locumranch said...

AF Rey wonders who 'the mark is' here:

The mark believes they are outsmarting the system or others, which is precisely how the con man manipulates them.

In a typical confidence scenario, the con artist provides initial, tangible proof that their secret works, as in the case of Trump's DOJ 'leaking' the information that the Epstein files implicate Trump. This builds the mark's "confidence" in the scheme, (but) not necessarily in the con man as a person.

The key psychological elements that the con artist exploits are:

(1) Greed/Desire for "something for nothing": The belief that one has access to a risk-free, highly profitable opportunity (such as destroying Trump).

(2) The "Inside Knowledge" Fallacy: The mark feels they are uniquely positioned with special, secret information that no one else has, making them feel superior and savvy.

(3) Dishonesty (of the mark): In many cons, the mark is led to believe they are going to "out-cheat" the actual cheater, the system or a third party, and is then swindled in the process.

Ultimately, the mark's belief that they can outsmart the con man or the system is the most important part of the con man's strategy to manipulate them into losing everything.


So, pass the popcorn & let's see what happens, why not? And cue 'The Entertainer' soundtrack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsFGcPujqKE


Best

David Brin said...

pfeh. All the fact folks who know stuff and check their own and others' models of the world through vigorous competition and questioning wide varieties of sources... WE are the delusional 'marks'! While the marching moron ignoramuses reciting daily counterfactuals and strawman chants while hating anyone who knows stuff... THEY are the REAL smartguys.

Sure.

Tony Fisk said...

It is known, David.

Unknown said...

Just an extra rant about something that grazed my own ox: Musk was apparently incensed after learning that a couple of game developers admitted that the early editions of D&D/AD&D contained racist and sexist stereotypes, and wanted to buy the game. Because, apparently, he saw no problem with said stereotypes.
And this is a guy on the path to becoming a 'trillie'.

Pappenheimer, who is of course an NPC in Muskian eyes.

Larry Hart said...

wanted to buy the game. Because, apparently, he saw no problem with said stereotypes.

Par for the course. He also bought Twitter because he saw no problem with Trump lies and Nazi propaganda.

Slim Moldie said...

I think the more applicable cinematic comp stars Trump as the Pierre Richard/Tom Hanks character in Le Grand Blond avec une chaussure noire/man with one red shoe in a plot that involves an intelligent string-puller versed in espionage manipulating his useful idiot to undermine and upstage a geopolitical rival.

Der Oger said...

And the D&D license might be up for him in the near future. Wizards of the Coast (WotC) somewhat botched the 2024 version and the virtual tabletop.

WotC aggravated the situation by making customers hating them by trying to revoke the Open Game License (which might be Elons first move to restrict "woke" versions appearing on the market) and sending the Pinkertons after a YouTuber.

locumranch said...

Despite Dr Brin's insincere comments to the contrary, Confidence Game vulnerability has little to do with the presence or absence of intelligence and everything to do with the intensity of the mark's hopes, desires & wants.

The following practically goes without saying:

Those who desire 'easy money' are quick to convince themselves that 'easy money' is quickly available; those who hope for a communist utopia tend to believe the promises of any slick-talking commie despite communism's 100% failure rate; and those who want the StarTrek future insist that StarTrek is imminent despite zero supportive evidence for transporter, replicator & FTL technologies.

Even I have fallen victim to the most commonplace of Confidence Games, after I allowed my romantic desires for love, marriage & family to overwhelm my reasoning faculties, only to be brutally swindled & robbed by a faithless woman who promised to love me forever.

Ask yourselves this & be honest:

Even though Epstein is almost 7 years dead, how many of you actually worried about 'Justice for Epstein's victims' before the media convinced you that 'Justice for Epstein's victims' equaled the destruction your much despised enemy 'Trumpen-Hitler' ?

The heart of the confidence game is that we swindle ourselves when we give in to our hopes, wants & desires.


Best