I keep offering 'judo moves' for those we depend-upon to save civilization.
One such move might have let Joe Biden demolish the entire Kremlin kompromat ring in DC. (Three Republican Congressional reps have attested that their GOP colleagues hold "orgies" and one of them made the blackmail charge explicit.) Alas, that idea - along with every other agile tactic in Polemical Judo - was never taken up.
Okay, let's try another one. An impudent proposal - or else a potential magic move for the Faramir of the West, desperately holding the line against the modern Mordor.
I refer to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces an excruciating dilemma because the the U.S. election.
Almost every aspect of the current, proposed 'ceasefire' would benefit Putin and disadvantage Ukraine. But Zelensky cannot be seen 'obstructing' a truce, or Ukraine will suffer in the arena of world opinion - and some of his own suffering populace. Hence my modest proposal.
To be clear... if Zelensky were to present this concept to the world, there is no way on Earth that Putin or Trump would accept it!
And yet, it will appear so clearly and inherently reasonable that those two would have a hard time justifying their rejection.
== A Modest Proposal ==
President Zelensky, just say this:
"Our land, our cities and towns, our forests and fields have been blasted, poisoned, and strewn with millions of landmines, while our brave men and women suffer every day resisting the aggressors, both on the front lines and on the home front. Meanwhile, every day and everywhere, our skills and our power-to-resist grow.
"The aggressor has no long term plan. Even should he occupy all of our country, the heat of our rage and resistance would make Kabul in 1980 pale, by comparison. Occupied, but never-subjugated, Ukrainians will turn the next hundred years into hell for the invaders.
"Then why does this outrageous crime continue? Because the despotic Kremlin regime controls all media and news sources available to 135 million Russians, who have no way to know the following:
-- That there was no "Nazi" movement in Ukraine. Except for a few dozen gangster idiots sporting swastikas for shock value. (There are far more such fools in both the USA and in the reborn USSR!) Otherwise, there was never any evidence for anything like it.
-- There was no ' invader army building in Ukraine' before either the full scale Russian invasion of 2022 or the 'green man' putsches of 2014. That was pure fantasy and we can prove it.
-- There was no irresistable momentum for Ukrainian NATO membership before 2022. Up to then, NATO itself had been atrophying for years and Ukraine might have been kept out of the alliance through diplomacy. Now? NATO is growing and gets stronger in potency every day. And Ukraine's alliance with the rest of Europe is now absolutely guaranteed, thanks to Mr. Putin.
-- We were always willing to negotiate assurance and provisions for the comfort and security and prosperity of Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine, especially in the Donbas. That offer still stands. And hence we ask them, are you truly better off now, dear friends?
I could go on and on. But doing so just leaves this as another case of "he-said, she said." And we are done exchanging heated assertions.
It is time to check out which side is lying!
OUR PROPOSAL IS SIMPLE:
Before any ceasefire takes effect, we call for a Grand Commission to investigate the truth.
Instead of world elites or politicians, we propose that this commission consist mostly of:
-- 100 Russian citizens...
-- 100 Ukrainian citizens living in unoccupied territories...
-- 100 citizens from a random pool of other nations.
Members of this Grand Commission will be free to go anywhere they wish, in both Ukraine and Russia, wielding cameras and asking questions and demanding answers. Let them video the trashed and ruined towns and farms and forests everywhere that Russian armed forces claim to have 'liberated.'
And yes, the commissioners will be welcome to sift for evidence of pervasive "naziism" in our country... so long as they are also free to document Vlad Putin's oligarchy and their relentlessly violent drive to rebuild the Orwellian Soviet empire.
== How would it work? A FAQ ==
Why such a large group?
A large and diverse commission helps to ensure maximum coverage and to minimize coercion by their home governments. Among so many commissioners, some will certainly ask pointed questions! And they will return home in numbers that cannot be kept squelched or repressed.
How to ensure the members aren't just factotums of either regime?
They will be selected randomly from the paper pages of old telephone directories! Sure, that might be clumsy. But those paper volumes cannot be meddled with, especially old phone books currently archived in - say - Switzerland. For all its faults, this method ensures that the selection process will pick many citizens who are not beholden to the masters in the capital.
Won't the governments of Russia or Ukraine be tempted to coerce commissioners anyway?
Yes, and that is why they will be invited to bring along their immediate families! Arrangements will be made for spouses and children to stay at nice resorts along the Black Sea, while the commissioners do their work. And incidentally, those families will talk to each other, too. We welcome that. Do you?
Won't some of the commissioners defect - during their tours of Ukraine or Russia, refusing to go home?
Of course some will! We are not afraid of that. Are YOU afraid of that, Mr. Putin?
Won't such a huge endeavor be expensive?
Sure it will be. So? Russia and America brag about how rich they are. And so do the host nations of recent 'peace conferences,' who could easily pony up the expenses, for the sake of ending a dangerous and destabilizing war.
Why not ask the world's billionnaire caste to foot the bill? For the sake of actual communications and genuine peace and prosperity?
There are many of the uber-rich who talk a good game. This would be their chance to prove that they believe in the future, after all.
Won't there be dangers?
Sure they will be, especially wherever resumed fighting breaks out near the inspectors, during or after a ceasefire. The commissioners should possess some grit and courage and world civic-mindedness. Why? Is that a problem? Compared to the possible good outcomes from such heroism? From the most-genuine kind of patriotism?
Do you honestly expect Vladimir Putin to agree to this?
Why wouldn't he? If this will let him convince skeptics around the world and in Ukraine that all of his justifications for this slaughter and ruination of a beautiful country are valid and true?
Of course that was a bitter jest. Because there is no way that Mr. Putin or his supporters would agree to such a Grand Commission, digging deeply into things that are called Facts and Truth.
Then why did you make the proposal, if you don't think it will be accepted?
Because nothing better demonstrates the most basic difference between the two sides of this conflict.
One side slavishly follows a murderous liar, because of the hypnotic power of his lies. Lies that would be so-easily disproved, if the tyrant agreed to allow light to flow to his people.
The other side is a nation of people who love Russian poetry... but we are not and never have been Russian. People who know intimately well Russia's cruelly-depressing history, and who want no further part of it.
We all had friends across the former USSR... but Ukraine is not and never has been Russia.
And we can prove it, as we daily prove our utter determination never again to suffer under Moscow's boot heel.
Are we outnumbered? Certainly. But we have special regiments on our side.
Honor. Decency. Resolve. Democracy. The friendship of all free peoples around the World. And science, too.
But above all -- the Truth.
32 comments:
An audacious variant on the wager gambit. Needs to have a lot more focus of intention and outcome than presented here. Still, that's details, and Zelensky* has shown himself open to judo moves in the past...
Anyone who doesn't think a statesperson of seven decades of experience *didn't* know who voiced Paddington for the Ukrainian release is naive.
* What is with the recent trend of referring to him as 'Zelenskyy'? Is it the Ukrainian form?
"The last name of Ukraine’s president is correctly spelled: Зеленський.
The reason behind the multiple spellings is that the Ukrainian language doesn’t use the same alphabet as English, so any rendering of Ukrainian names into the English language is a transliteration, which means we’re taking the Ukrainian spelling Зеленський and fashioning it into an English-like spelling that approximates how it is said aloud."
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/zelensky-zelenskyy-ukraine-president-spelling-b2037103.html
Pappenheimer
I love that you still believe this would work.
In our world, US and Russian state news sources would either ignore it or describe this as further proof of Zelensky's corruption (how? stop asking questions). Trump cultists, if they noticed it at all, would at best call it "faggy". Some obscure non-crazy foreign policy podcasts would mention it positively for a moment then move on to the next fire, while the democratic party would ignore it, "keeping their powder dry" for their increasingly mystical ragnarok.
I wish we'd taken the alternative path where it could have mattered, but we aren't in a world where these sorts of mild rhetorical judo moves work or are even neutral.
In the last thread, I offered the following propositional logic in order to explain FBI Table 43 to those who have lost the capacity for rational thought:
(1) If A approximates B; and
(2) If B approximates C.
(3) Then, A approximates C.
wherein A = Poverty, B = Turpitude and C = Race plus Political Affiliation.
In this thread however, our fine host offers up an irrational incantation, self-described as a "magic move", in lieu of any sort of logical argument, taking the form of a truth followed by multiple falsehoods:
(1) Our land, our cities and towns... blasted... while our brave men and women suffer, the initial truth;
(2) our skills and our power-to-resist grow, a falsehood that (if true) would eliminate any need for Ukrainian forces to plead for peace; and
(3) Up to (2022), NATO itself had been atrophying for years, a massive lie, as NATO started out as 12 nation alliance during the Cold War, only to expand to 30 nations very recently, all while creeping ever closer to its designated adversary Russia.
About 3 days ago, Jon Stewart of TDS described this approach as empty content-free messaging.
Best
______
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
With the above info, it takes a special type of magical thinker to assume that it is Russia (rather than Ukraine) which is on the verge of collapse.
Bull.
Polemical judo is hard work (especially for a layman like me) and of questionable efficacy (Cassandra Effect).
Explaining/warning about climate change is one example. Here's a 45s stop-motion vid about beavers and wildfire that's more direct:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAM94B73bzE&t=5s
Of the things Zelenskyy could do and should so he has chosen pretty much every available option.
Putin does not accept anything except raw, brutal strength and anything that would endanger his domestic power base.
Zelenskyy needs ammunition, not fancy maneuvers.
As Tony points out, this is another variation on David's "wager" gambit.
David, has your wager gambit *ever* worked for you?
What makes you think that the same gambit would work against a billionaire oligarch-run nation state? Do you think that Russia's wife and children would be silently watching as Russia turns cowardly in the face of your masterful strategy?
Bah.
There should be a Cassandra prize - someone who warned of an impending danger, and that danger becomes reality, should be rewarded. Maybe in different categories - Environment, Medicine, Politics etc.
Don't expect an uprising soon. If Russia United get's away with awarding literal meat grinders to mothers of fallen soldiers, and these mothers remains docile, they are probably beyond reality for a Long time.
The only game that might work is "Dare Me".
Every airplane violating NATO airspace is not only intercepted, but attacked.
Each ship leaving the Bay of Finnland ist controlled, searched and seized If Military or espionage equipment is found or sanctions are violated.
French Nuclear Weapons should be stationed in striking distanced to St. Petersburg, and even the Europeans could make short work of the Transnistrian rebels in Moldavia.
Kick out all diplomats. Putin can call If he wants to speak.
Ready all states to be one step away of actually declaring war on Russia.
Do it all at once, within 48 hours.
Create facts, not words.
My bet is that the Kremlin will rage and threaten US with doom - and do nothing.
Dare us!
The answer of our Ministry of the Foreign to the deported Germans was actualizing travel information (not giving out travel warnings) and saying "There are some issues which are not totally clear to us", which is bureaucracy speech meaning "WTF are you doing"?
Der Oger's "Cassandra Prize" should have a sliding scale of reward money that increases every time a prominent "expert" who is supposed to know the subject matter calls you "deranged" or otherwise insinuates that your warning is insane.
Thankyou for the clarification
@Matthew, David has repeatedly said it's worked for him on several occasions. The point is that they *do* find excuses not to put their money down. As I said earlier, however, I think the tactic works better in person, where the smell of fear is more apparent.
If Russia United get's away with awarding literal meat grinders to mothers of fallen soldiers...
Coincidentally, the Russian casualty estimate* is likely to exceed 900,000 today. I think a real psychological barrier will be reached around June, when the numbers will hit a million.
* 'casualties' include wounded as well as dead, although Russia's treatment of its failed meat has never been great.
If Russia United get's away with awarding literal meat grinders to mothers of fallen soldiers, and these mothers remains docile,...
Time again for this excerpt from Mark Twain's "The Czar's Soliloquy"
...
There are twenty-five million families in Russia. There is a man-child at every mother's knee. If these were twenty-five million patriotic mothers, they would teach these man-children daily, saying : "Remember this, take it to heart, live by it, die for it if necessary: that our patriotism is medieval, outworn, obsolete; that the modern patriotism, the true patriotism, the only rational patriotism, is loyalty to the Nation all the time, loyalty to the Government when it deserves it."
With twenty-five million taught and trained patriots in the land a generation from now, my successor would think twice before he would butcher a thousand helpless poor petitioners humbly begging for his kind-ness and justice, as I did the other day.
Brin considers himself a scientist, but his opinions are full of emotion rather than informed analytic thinking. Calling Trump Putin's puppet with no evidence of any kind that Trump does anything pro Russia and anti-US. He tells us what Putin thinks, but he couldn't possibly know what Putin thinks. Finally, he talks about truth, but his truth is pure speculation. As far as the truth about Russia-Ukraine, Brin has no clue. His recommended action to Zelenskyy would accomplish nothing.
Der Oger starts with truth: “Putin does not accept anything except raw, brutal strength and anything that would endanger his domestic power base.”
Only then he reveals the problem with the defenders of the Enlightenment:
“Zelenskyy needs ammunition, not fancy maneuvers.”
Of course facts and deeds and palpable enablers-of-deeds… like ammunition… matter more than words. Or they do to folks like you and me. Our goals are outcomes like universal opportunity for all children to strive and cooperate and compete in positive sum ways – (as recommended by Adam Smith) - without being much hampered by accidents of birth, in a civilization that preserves such opportunities… along with the world. And above-all, you and I are willing to change near term tactics, in pursuit of those outcomes. Especially when former tactics or assumptions proved faulty.
It's why Al Gore did more to trim bloated government than any sum total of all screaming conservative, combined.
Alas, this hampers us at understanding what has happened. That manipulators have convinced millions – the entire right and some swathes of the left - to drug themselves in sanctimony highs that are propelled by endorphin-triggering incantations and tactics that are utterly immune to evidential refutation by outcomes… immune to facts. Those triggers fall into the general realm of polemics…
… and poor der Oger – despite his nation’s history – cannot bring himself to perceive that millions can be swayed by polemical incantations that protect them from any disturbance by facts.
Matthew asks has wager demanding ever worked for me? The answer is that it is the ONLY thing that has every worked! And it has worked in ways he cannot and will never understand.
Have I won any money? No, because it works by making them flee in panic, often before witnesses. And Several folks have openly admitted that it made them realize their movement was utterly fact-free. And peeling away influential members of that coalition is part of the complex path to victory. (What does NOT work is addictively masturbating to tirades that failed Hillary in 16 and Kamala in 24, while allowing shrill sanctimony junkies to double down on their obsession with pouring hatred on allies and narrowing the coalition.)
WHY can’t matthew possibly understand? Because many fellow citizens on the right have one admirable trait that matthew’s ilk are utterly incapable of understanding. Are MAGAs generally dopes with varied degrees of bigotry and hatred of modernity and many of them Kremlin shills? Sure. But many of them do at least officially believe in something called ‘honor.’ That someone (especially a man) SHOULD stand up and back up his hot air. And a wager is the purest form of that.
Do they actually DO it? Of course not. They know they’ll lose their cash and be humiliated by facts, and so they flee. But some feel SHAME over that. While poor matthew could read the previous sentences and never, ever, remotely imagine any of that. Nothing – not political failure or the consequences of his cult giving us Trump… nothing will cause neurons ever to flash at that word. Honor.
Der Oger, let me put it simply. Polemics are key to this crisis. And the folks on the side of the Enlightenment are utterly incapable of understanding that. And this is proved by the fact that you actually think the Russian People would not find out that Putin refused the commission I just described.
Tom M... STEP UP! Have your atty contact me when you have escrowed major wager stakes over what you just posted in attacking me. Do it now! Come and take my money! We already have a couple of lying cowards here. How about you prove you are more of a man than they are?
Here's my standard (paste-in) wager demand. "Have your atty verify $10k escrowed stakes. We'll put evidence to a RANDOM panel of retired Sr military officers. (Most former Republicans.) Pool with fellow MAGAs. Take MY $$!
*Grand juries across USA (mostly white retirees in red-run states) indicted ~100X as many top Repubs as Dems! ~80x convictions!Your cult is a criminal gang. Bets?
*Fact-check any RANDOM 10 of Trump's >>150,000 registered lies. Or evidence of ANY election 'steal.' Or name 1 fact-profession NOT hated-on by Fox?
* Tally NDAs & hush payments! Which party wants to BAN them?
*Come to sea with me and a Ph meter! Bet whether CO2-caused acid is killing the oceans.
*Check Fox 'scientists are sheep!' rants. Let's knock on 20 RANDOM labs at a research university!
*Compare DEATH rates of those who refused vaccines!
*Bet which party is ALWAYS more fiscally responsible? Compare economic outcomes!
*Or if Red-States (except Utah) average higher on EVERY turpitude from gambling, STDs, teen sex to domestic violence, crime...
*Which party's pols have 3x as many WIVES?
No MAGA/Putinist ever shows manly guts to back up their blab, as grampa would've. Blowhards flee the ruins of their macho.
That's the charm of this blog. It purports to be a place for the most rational, level-headed, scientific types, yet its host is one of the more emotion-driven, biased, tribal, irrational pundits around. Check out his ALL CAPS rants and insults, the wild accusations treated as fact, the ultra-confident but failed predictions, the know-it-all “judo moves” and lists of secret tricks that can solve...pretty much any problem in the world. Then there are the commenters who demonstrate the superior maturity and intellect in the camp of the science-progressive-resistance by using terms like “rumpT” and “maggots”, or hyper-ventilating about various imaginary threats, or just copy-and-pasting other people’s propaganda. It’s an odd little cult, but kinda interesting and pretty good entertainment to see how groups of nerds can gaslight each other and themselves, imo.
David, As you, I am a PhD physicist. It saddens me to see so much emotion in your analyses. I abstain from focussing on personalities in politics since I do not know the parties involved and I do not trust the images presented by the media. I also do not side with any party in politics. I analyze each policy separately and focus on its contribution (or lack thereof) to the common good. I am not interested in your money. I have what I need. I don't need a bet to carry-on a thoughtful analysis of an issue. I am surprised that you seem to think of a bet as such a motivator. As scientists, we have an obligation to be our own worst critics when it comes to analysis and conclusion. In any event, have enjoyed your books.
Tom,
Dude. He runs this blog for his contrarian needs. If you want a more measured analysis, I've seen him do that elsewhere when it suits him.
We are all capable of calm and soothing. Ask yourself if it is worth the time to do that right now and you'll see our problem. How would 'meek' sell right now?
Yeah, what Alfred said
I'd add that I *think* Dr. Brin sees his Star Trek future in danger of slipping away, where an Earth-spanning civilization - without horrible deprivation or science-crushing autocracy - reaches out into the universe, or at least the Solar System. It's my perspective, at least.
People talk about 'tipping points' and this is probably one, but there are usually MANY tipping points, right up until the last one. Rome staggered through a mort of them before it finally went down. People across the world are looking at their futures and comparing them to what their parents expected...it's not looking good, and the Rich are generally excellent and redirecting the popular blame at any 'other' than themselves, but that never works forever. Loc (before I finally quit the habit) seemed more worried about genetic purity and enforcement of a specific set of moral values than the immiseration of his fellow USians. I learned about the 'revolution of rising expectations' a long time ago, and it's here, looking for targets. (How popular is rumpT now? Could he win a rerun of the 2024 election now that his policies are exposed?)
Brin wants to avoid a Marxist ending by keeping the middle class rich. People like McS seem intent on bringing it on by destroying the middle class's support structure.
(Rant over)
Pappenheimer, hoping that a possible future outreach of humanity into the skies won't resemble the 'fleeing the doomed planet' motif most recently popularized in the Firefly 'verse.
Tacitus (the historian) lived through Sulla's Proscriptions, but a lot of his contemporaries did not. He would immediately recognize what's happening the the US Senate - reducing their own power in the face of tyranny until a senator could be replaced by a horse without effecting much of a change.
Pappenheimer
Tacitus was born in 55 AD - Long after the Republic fell. You probably mean Cicero, who survived Sulla, but not the second triumvirate.
Got that. I assume they would find it out; what I think is that they would not care. The overwhelming majority of Russians is either in a mind - numbing
state of self-imposed exile, or supporting Putins war efforts fueled by revanchism, imperialism and state propaganda.I fear not even a total economic and military collapse would cure them of their beliefs.
… and poor der Oger – despite his nation’s history – cannot bring himself to perceive that millions can be swayed by polemical incantations that protect them from any disturbance by facts.
Sigh. You are not totally wrong. But are you willing to support the necessary legal and societal changes necessary to make a society more resistant to fascism? And even they just slow it down.
...until a senator could be replaced by a horse without effecting much of a change.
A horse could at least vote "neigh" some times.
Seriously?
Tom M:
Calling Trump Putin's puppet with no evidence of any kind that Trump does anything pro Russia and anti-US.
You demand "evidence" as if it's difficult to tease out rather than obvious even to the most obtuse by now. Start with destroying the western alliances and economies and move on to saving Russia's bacon in their disastrous war with Ukraine.
He tells us what Putin thinks, but he couldn't possibly know what Putin thinks.
"If I drop a hammer on a planet with a positive gravity, I need not see it fall to know that it has done so.”
Isn't the Star Trek human society a post-capitalist, classless and mostly nationless society (i.e. communist?)
That said, the true problem is, in my view, authoritarianism... Look at Cuba, for example, where the legal status of LGBT+ people and women is becoming much more liberal than in the US each day...as it was in the Warsaw pact before the collapse ...
Der Oger:
sn't the Star Trek human society a post-capitalist, classless and mostly nationless society (i.e. communist?)
I try not to read as much into the minutiae of the implied economic system of Star Trek as many other here do. TNG establishes Earth society as being post-capitalist, but beyond that, the details are intentionally vague. From what I can tell of the interactions on the ship, people just do stuff because they're supposed to or because they like to. TOS was even more vague about that sort of thing.
I think the desire that sci-fi fans have for a "Star Trek future" is not so much about economics as it is about continuing the human adventure--meeting new challenges and growing from them--on an increasingly grander scale.
Real honor would be owning your own complicancy in creating our current problems, Dr. Brin.
You defended and fought tooth and nail for Elon Musk right up to the election, only breaking with him *after* he had successfully funded Trump for POTUS. You were still making excuses for him the last time you posted about him.
An honorable man would admit that his actions had done much more harm than good.
Dr. Brin is not an honorable man. He is incapable of self-reflection or self-criticism. His ego will not allow it.
I do not believe that David's wager gambit has ever worked. My most charitable interpretation would be that David *thinks* it worked, not realizing that he defected himself by being an asshole bully. But, I doubt even that.
David exists in this space to give rich techbois and right-wing DoJ/IARPA schmucks permission to continue to counter-democratic actions.
The Transparent Society succeeded in setting up David with a nice source of income telling oligarchs and government "guardians" that they were OK in building a massive surveillance state because the powerless would somehow figure out how to look back at them. With a wink and a nod.
Really, The Transparent Society was a sucker-punch, designed to keep all the nerds quiet while the real masters set up their surveillance state and social (control) networks.
I hope the checks were enough to buy your way out of gulag, David, but I bet you'll be betrayed in the end.
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