I generally try to alternate politics and futurism with postings on science or scifi. But, well, these are fraught times and there will be no more science if oligarchy + know-nothing idiocrats triumph to restore 6000 years of lobotomizing feudalism, as Robert Heinlein so well warned.
And so, we'll have a 2nd political posting in a row. Starting first: might this be your most-influential political act?
Another small-donor opportunity that's very timely (and a reason to rush out this blog), has to do with the imminent choice of Kamala Harris's running mate. Right now Democratic Party mavens are measuring how many new, individual donors each of the VP front runners are bringing in. Thus you can influence her choice, simply by being a $5 New Donor for any of the top candidates.
Finally, two best things. (1) Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (remember the heroic sane Republican?) is helping run a campaign to recruit poll workers - folks who must remain scrupulously non-partisan, but who make a tremendous difference by ensuring an honest process and honest count. Please consider it and spread word to others. This is vital!
And what's #2? Well. The Union side in this latest, dangerous phase of the 250 year U.S. Civil War is badly lacking in one thing. Tactical imagination. Alas.
== Can Vance... um... dance? ==
Ah, JD Vance is turning into an albatross around the neck of ol' Two Scoops. (See two fun songs linked below.) Polls show JDV with crushing negatives. So why did DT pick him? Trump said just days after: "The guy loves me! Nobody loves me more!" And yes, flattery is always the key to his heart. (It's how he 'fell in love' with murder-commie Kim Jong Un and with "ex" commissar Vlad Putin.)
Alas, no one uses that angle, or any other Polemical Judo.
Well, look at it from the Don's point of view. He needed a Veep who would be slavishly devoted and reliably dependent. (I mentioned the possibility of ensuring that with blackmail kompromat: "I'll make you veep after you do a photo shoot with a donkey. I'll keep the negatives safe.") And it must be strong enough kompromat to ensure JDV will drop out - on any excuse, should DT ever demand it. (As seems increasingly likely.)
Also, by DT's logic, having someone who is unappealing to the oligarchs (except Thiel & pals) is now a big plus. Especially since he knows that some oligarchs are having second thoughts about Donald Trump! Those educated enough to know what happened in 1933 Germany. Especially the Night of the Long Knives, when Hitler no longer needed the Prussian aristocrats. ("So, you still think you can control him?")
== But what about the extremum? ==
Of course none of that works in case of death. Nor would Vance even likely be the fallback GOP nominee, if Trump went away! At any time that Trump vanished from the scene, even a week before the election - (and I'm on record relentlessly begging the Secret Service to do well!) - I expect McConnell etc. would reconvene a virtual RNC, so the delegates might pick someone other than Vance. And if so, what then?
Okay, okay. So now we're in sci fi/Grisham thriller territory, sure. Still....
So, it's only when Trump exits after that, when Peter Thiel might get his dream puppet. And he would eventually, since DT's health will likely fade - even naturally - long before 2028. So... patience?
Okay, right. Again, am I writing semi-scifi thriller plots, rather than plausible political commentary?
Anyway, here are those Vance songs. enjoy.
A nice recent Snark by some talented young musicians...
But this one is just too classic...
== Our heroes on the Realist Left ==
Not all ‘woke progressives’ are crazy, bent on betraying the blue coalition. There are pragmatist-leftist heroes! In fact, Bernie, Liz, Stacey, Jaime, Hakeem and others seem to be spending half their time herding frippy sanctimony ‘cats’ back into the only coalition that can possibly save civilization. Reminding dopes of the wonderful miracle year – 2021-22 – when Pelosi and Biden got passed a whole raft of terrific legislation that – among other things – led to today’s supercharged revival of U.S. manufacturing, skyrocketing installation of sustainables, raising tens of millions out of poverty, and restoring our alliances, driving Vlad the im-putiner crazy.
(Dare your flake-friends to name and describe those bills, before they rave about "They're all the same!") See just some of those bills here. And they created a floor from which a new Congress can do more. Bernie and Liz know that! Do you?
Favorite among those? Future president AOC. She may be to my left a bit, but we love her! And more so when she shredded Klan Mom Marjorie Taylor Greene.
== Final rant! WHY won't anyone make these things explicitly clear? ==
Across the US and a more often than not in Red States, Grand juries (mostly white retirees) have indicted -- and other juries convicted -- roughly 40 to 60 x as many high republicans as democrats. I do not exaggerate! And the paroxysms/excuses to explain this tie the Foxites in knots.
Either it is a perfect, alien-level conspiracy involving hundreds of thousands, even millions, of skilled and reciprocally competitive professionals... a conspiracy that has never leaked a scintilla of hard evidence, without even one defector who accepted lavish 'whistle blower rewards' offered by Fox, Kochs etc...
...or else...
... or else today's GOP is a massive (and partly Kremlin-run) criminal gang.
Look at the images above. Let's wager $$$ stakes over ANY of these monsters. But even worse than those devil-traitors Bannon and Flynn? OMG Manafort. DT's twice campaign manager and devoted Putin stooge and so much more.
Oh, let's also bet on ratios of child predators?
Or wager over which party has better outcomes? Economically, or in regards fiscal prudence or any other metric of decent governance? Never once has one of the fanatic cowards stepped up with atty-escrowed $$$ wager stakes. For all their macho preenings, they are not men.
And alas, none of the good guys will ever use this never-miss method. Alack.
253 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 253 of 253Larry, you would think that if you took proper accounting of the 2014 coup, the overruled completed peace talks, the unconstitutionally extended Zelenskyy regime, the banning of opposition parties, the ever more desperate search for conscripts yanked off the streets, etc.
If it was acting of its own free will and in its own interest, the above factors demanding explanation would not exist. Once you account for the American war profiteers benefiting from keeping this going, to whom all the foreign "aid" must be paid back, it all makes perfect sense.
Blatantly the Belgoran rail line is the core target to be utterly demolished while luring desperate, piecemeal attacks by RF forces rushed from elsewhere. I never believed the distracto-line that Ukraine was out of reserves. These were likely meticulously trained & prepared.
"Reportedly, the US was not briefed before this mission began. Woof."
Depends. Is that the official deniability line? Sure.
Does the AFU make a move without detailed US satellite & other intel? Not a chance.
But yeah. The biggest training emphasis has been to ensure that AFU forces who have seens their country tormented and much of it turned into mine-strewn ash, knowing that when their guys are captured, RF-(uckers) torture them... keeping them willing to take RF prisoners gently. Better in the long term.
Not informing the US and our chancellor was a wise decision.
All warfare is deception.
As stated above, it is quite wise to not inform all NATO allies of planned operations.
Especially us.
Add: Inform us only if you plan on a revival of Operation Mincemeat.
But what is the upper limit of the Tsar’s ambition? (If there is one.)
Kyiv?
Most of Ukraine?
All of Ukraine?
Part of the Baltics?
All of the Baltics?
Moldova?
Alaska?
A destroyed Ukraine is also just fine to Russia.
“How would you like your Ukraine served, Vlad?”
Vlad: “Rare.”
—
You are correct re peaceful resolution: peaceful until the pre-determined moment arrives to up the ante.
according to Wiki the inspiration for Operation Mincemeat may have been the unattributed work of one Ian Fleming, staff officer, though similar ruses were apparently pulled even earlier in WWI.
Pappenheimer
Can we change "Two Scoops" to "Felonious Coward"?
Here's a recent short discussion of ER=EPR research using a quantum computer (Sycamore chip) to simulate a physical system.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arzr4KWhamU
It encourages me to keep working on the SELDON I chip. Totally unrelated, but sort of gives the same feels.
Just found out... Vance had been in Iraq (briefly) as a press officer. An officer, like most vet politicians. Instead it seems he was a corporal. No shame in that. My dad was a reporter for Stars & Stripes and a technocal sergeant during WWII. But attempts to deride 22 year command sergeant major Walz seem even sillier, now. Funny thing. What sways midweaterners may be that he coached his high school team to state. To state. In rural America that's royalty.
the new nested comment section has advantages... but the number of clicks it takes just to move around or even get to the last comment is... unfortunate.
Larry, you would think that if you took proper accounting of the 2014 coup, the overruled completed peace talks, the unconstitutionally extended Zelenskyy regime, the banning of opposition parties, the ever more desperate search for conscripts yanked off the streets, etc.
If it was acting of its own free will and in its own interest, the above factors demanding explanation would not exist. Once you account for the American war profiteers benefiting from keeping this going, to whom all the foreign "aid" must be paid back, it all makes perfect sense.
After 200 comments, you have to "Load More" to see the rest of them. And you have to repeat every time you refresh the screen.
I understand that Tim Walz didn't serve long enough for "Command Sergeant Major" to be a permanent rank, his retirement rank is "Master Sergeant". which I find suitably impressive.
You apparently must click ON some text (to make the text screen active), then REFRESH, then click on text again and click END to get to the end, then if there are 200+ you must click on text again to then click SEE MORE... and finally click on some text and click END.... and now you are finally at the last comment. 8 clicks to get to the very last comment. Hoping they's fix that.
@Dr Brin,
Stephanie Miller's radio show is comparing Trump to Howard Beale this morning. Just sayin'
If Ukraine is being forced to act against its interests for its US corporate masters, it makes sense that they would take offensive action without notifying the US?
Yes, Larry. There is lack of respect on all sides, as with the situation with Israel.
MIDWAY was surprisingly good for an Emmeruich flick. Still, I'd love to see TAFFY... about the epic hour of battle when five tiny US destroyers and five baby flat tops took on - and repelled at heroic cost - the most powerful battleships the world ever saw.
TAFFY would be cool. I'd pay to watch it.
It has wonderful thinking-person's story elements for deception and confusion.
Will we see it? The world wonders.
Shagggz,
there’s a lack of respect on all sides? No foolin’? You are so educated, you ought to be a professor.
—
Answer this, prof: what was Ukraine supposed to do after it lost its nukes a quarter century ago?
It did everything right. It believed in the better angels of humanity's nature in trusting the so-called leader of the free world. It voted, it followed the so-called rules of the order supposedly based on them. Problem is, it voted wrong so it got couped. Vlad also did everything right in putting his best foot forward, trying to behave constructively with an eye towards cooperation. He has eventually gotten the message that that's not what's actually on offer, so is now acting to establish unilaterally the security for his country that was denied multilaterally. The barbaric dogs of the puppet state act with the contempt for each other's wishes as one would expect. It's the nature of the beast.
Would like to see the comment you removed, it must have contained something of weighty interest.
“the so-called leader of the free world”
You mean the leader of the so-called free world. A leader is not ‘so-called’.
—
What are you writing?:
you are telling us that peace is so important that surrender talks must begin ASAP. Not negotiations, no—surrender. Ukraine is expected to forfeit roughly twenty percent of its territory.
My apologies for the deletion. This nested system is truly maddening. I'm now realizing that the posts I thought didn't go through actually did and resulted in many duplicates. I think I'll give up on trying to clean them up. My apologies to OGH.
Yes, your pedantic correction about the proper syntax of "so-called" is duly noted.
Surrender is what they'll eventually get because they were not allowed to have the more favourable terms they'd agreed to with Vlad because their puppetmasters denied them this self-determination. If you were properly informed you'd know that he kept restating multiple times that they would receive poorer and poorer terms the longer this conflict that he never wanted went on. But I understand your predicament. It's a lot to take in.
I dunno. I wouldn't take issue with the wording. Think of it this way: The so-called (leader of the free world). I disagree with the characterization*, but knowing the Russian apologist's POV, the wording makes sense to me.
* Now, when Trump was president, I did note that for the first time since Eisenhower, the office of the president of the US could not truthfully be described as the leader of the free world.
He has some awareness of Russia's geopolitical interests, but appears to have zero understanding of the equivalent for the US. He maps Russia's to us and thinks it works even though we are a sea power and Russia is a land power.
I don't understand why you bother.
this conflict that he [Putin] never wanted
Gish Gallop or sealion? (Does it matter?)
This nested system is truly maddening.
Well, we agree on that, if nothing else.
Larry, you suggest that just because America is a sea power that it somehow has no choice but to shoot for the moon of permanent unilateral global dominance. Suffice it to say, this is insane and will not work. The unraveling now happening would not surprise a student of history, which is what Vlad is and the reason he is not attempting such foolishness.
Call me whatever you want. This new system has severely diminished my appetite for embarking on this steep uphill battle of informing those with such strong motivated reasoning. But I applaud your continued curiosity for at least bothering at all, and encourage you to investigate further.
Shagggz,
the propaganda is transparent: saying that because Azov contains some Nazis, that Kiev is controlled by them?
And how Ukrainians are little Russians, and Russians are Bolshoi Russians?
Americans don’t term Canadians ‘Little Americans’—America and Canada are separate nations with separate systems.
—
What you write simply doesn’t add up.
Sorry Larry, I think I confused you with Alfred re sea powers. As for Trump and Ike, the man who warned us about the military-industrial complex, Trump is the first postwar president that did not launch any new wars. For all the talk of him being a dictator, this is the more consequential and positive reality in my opinion.
It does add up when you consider the violation of sovereignty that happened in 2014 and their continued subsequent acting against their interests to the benefit of America's that I've cited many times. They act like the puppet state that they've been turned into. Those analogies you mention are not relevant to this basic situation.
Midway was, indeed, surprisingly good, though some of the most dramatic scenes - Jimmy Thach pulling his weave for the first time, the fight to save Yorktown - didn't make it onto the screen. There should have been Wildcats and B-17s.
Pappenheimer
P.S. I recently reread "Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors", and the death ride of the Johnston and her sister ships did not repel the Japanese cruisers and battleships - it delayed them so the jeep carriers could make their escape. The IJN at first thought they were facing cruisers and fleet carriers, which meant that the AP shells being thrown often went through the lightly armored US ships without exploding - when the IJN switched to HE, the US lost 1 escort carrier and most of the 'small boys' - destroyers and destroyer escorts. Kurita's main worry after that seems to have been unceasing air attacks, which disrupted his attempts to catch and sink the US carriers, and the sure knowledge that US battleships were around here somewhere.
It's great and horrific drama, but it won't be made into a movie unless it can get around the fact Halsey messed up on a grand scale. Kurita should never have been able to exit San Bernardino Strait unscathed - if the Washington had been on position, Kurita's ships would probably never have returned, either.
and their [Ukraine's] continued subsequent acting against their interests to the benefit of America's
Which they have to do without America's knowing or approval?
that I've cited many times.
No, you're asserted without explanation many times.
They act like the puppet state that they've been turned into.
You mean when they revolted against being a puppet state of Russia's.
Can you refute our host's contention that every former Soviet bloc country would rather risk war than be subject to Moscow again?
Look it up. I've pointed towards some credible alternative media sources
And I've pointed toward others like Malcolm Nance, Philip Ittner, and Hal Sparks, who know what's going on in Ukraine whom I've paid attention to for years, and who say the opposite of what your Russian/Hamas apologist sources circle-jerk to each other.
So it's like I tell the quad preachers who think that their message is the only game in town--that hearing them is believing, and that those who don't accept them are being irrational simply because they don't like the implications. "I've heard your pitch--I'm just not buying."
Alfred you erudite devil, with that last sentence!
Alan even under this new system, my toleration has limits. Pls engage the twit a bit less?
I officially HATE the new blogger system. Every advantage of nested posting is wrecked by having to do 6-10 extra clicks to get to the end and most recents. Idiots!!
Is this really what it's come to, David? You having to plead with your own community members to not speak to me? I really don't want to mirror your impoliteness but man, you really do somehow manage to just keep surpassing my ever-lowering expectations of you. Don't worry, I was on the way out anyway. You guys can enjoy your echo chamber undisturbed. Events will surpass your ability to look the other way soon enough, regardless.
I have to agree. I can't even determine what I've read. Nested systems like this should have that built in with a setting to roll up everything I haven't seen yet.
Are they trying to push you off this product and onto another one?
Alfred Differ:
I can't even determine what I've read.
I've been trying--maybe not always successfully--to post as I always have with my new post at the bottom of the list. An exception is for a personal back-and-forth which I figure others may not want to be bothered with.
A lot of readability issues will depend on what others do.
FWIW, I use two browsers. One for the old linear UI and one for the new nested UI. My Chromebook and the portable versions of Chrome and Firefox still work for the former, everything else for the latter. The webosphere has a lot to say about Blogger and how Google is in the midst of a major re-think of its entire discussion offerings. Do no Evil is being supplanted by Do no Gratis.
scidata I tried Chrome and had my hopes up, seeing the old comments section. But as soon as I tried to post, it switched to this crap. The new one needs one tweak to be half as irritating. Stop making us click on the text to make the thread the locus of attention every single action. If I WAS in the comments section and I am LOOKING at the comments sectin, could you assume my next action will be ABOUT the comments section? That and if I am at the end, please don't pop me back to the beginning? Not sure even how to complain... but I am about to post for the weekend so we'll see.
Dr. Brin: Not sure even how to complain
You would only be one drop in the ocean anyway (no disrespect intended). I don't use Safari. My wife does, but non-overlapping magisteria and all that :) Also, as Larry Hart pointed out, everything can change in a single browser update, so caveat utilitor.
I have a Blogger site. It's very different than CB. It has four permanent discussion threads, and very low traffic, so the nested UI makes works well. CB has a fresh, high traffic thread every week, so the linear UI makes sense. Especially since you have the participants well-trained to include a context/addressee prefix to avoid confusion.
For content you aim at me, you also reliably name me. So... you make it pretty easy for personal back-and-forth stuff. 8)
Just checking in on a recent "book" (actually a series of lectures I found on Audible - it seems that The Great Courses now has competition).
The Psychology of Good and Evil
Catherine A. Sanderson, Ph.D.
Excerpt Lecture 2: starting at 12:12 min.
I want to talk about one more biological factor that is consistently linked with aggression, and that is, the role of hormones. In particular, the level of testosterone in the body is strongly associated with engaging in aggressive and violent behavior. This research helps explain the finding that in virtually all cultures, men are more physically aggressive than women, and of course men are higher in testosterone than are women. Researchers in one study examined rates of testosterone and level of crime and behavior within a prison. Among a sample of adult male prison inmates, they tested testosterone levels from saliva samples and then they coded different kinds of behavior based on records in the prison. What they found was that inmates that committed personal crimes related to sex and violence had higher rates of testosterone than inmates who were also in prison, but for committing property crimes - things like, you know, burglary and theft, drug possession. Moreover, once they were in the prison, inmates with higher levels of testosterone violated more rules, especially the rules involving overt confrontation with guards and with other prisoners. And so these findings indicate differences as a function of testosterone, and the amount and patterns of different kinds of aggressive behavior.
But levels of testosterone don’t just predict aggression in the traditional sense, such as violence against other people, they also predict other types of different forms of aggressive behavior. For example, men with higher levels of testosterone tend to be more confident and successful in all sorts of competitive situations, but they may also engage in riskier behavior, perhaps as a result of that confidence. Researchers in one study measured levels of two hormones, testosterone but also cortisol. Cortisol is a hormone that is elevated in response to to some kind of physical response or stress. It basically prepares the body for a fight-or-flight response. They then simulated a stock trading floor in the lab, by having volunteers buy and sell assets among themselves in groups of around ten. And what they found was that men with the highest levels of cortisol were the most likely to make risky trades. And high levels of testosterone and cortisol in this group were associated overall with instability in the prices. basically because people with high levels of these hormones, preferring riskier assets, and then they’re also more optimistic about how prices would change in the future.
Now this first study tested naturally-occurring levels of cortisol and testosterone, and therefore it makes it difficult to tell whether this is a correlational or causational effect. So in a second study, they brought in young men and they gave them either cortisol or testosterone before playing the game. Once again, hormones shifted investments toward riskier assets. Researchers think that the stressful and competitive environment of financial markets may promote high levels of cortisol and testosterone in traders. But the hormones may also destabilize financial markets by making traders more likely to take risks. Real-world studies show very similar findings. Stock traders in the real world make significantly higher profits on days when their testosterone levels were above their daily average, and that increased variability in profits and uncertainty in the market are actually associated with elevations in their cortisol levels. So these findings about the link between hormones and behavior are seen in laboratory settings, but they’re also seen in real-world settings.
We also know that hormones may increase lower level forms of unethical behavior, not just violence but in other types of unethical behavior.
Paul SB
Thanks Paul. I would not blame a woman-led civilization for modifying us. Providing they first show their even-tempered, non-sanctimonious wisdom. In other words, almost no one from the sanctimony-junkies currently dominating all institutions of science fiction, alas.
onward
onward
I'm sorry. The rich vein of irony in your words is again simply too much for me to resist, David. Would you count yourself as among those "sanctimony-junkies" or is this yet another case of do as I say, not as I do? Have our collisions sparked even the tiniest hint of introspection?
Guys. C'mon. This Orwellian world where we are the peace-seeking good guys helplessly reacting to the aggressive monster Putler is just laughably baseless and stupid. I know every time I try to spark a reasonable reexamination of what we've been fed it ends up in accusations of sealioning or Gish galloping (fecal flailings aside), so just answer me a single simple question, which unravels the whole thing...
Why deny Russian entry into NATO?
Hello again, your friendly neighborhood upholder of the Enlightenment here. Don't worry, your failure to answer a simple pointed question did not whisk me off to the fainting couch.
I just thought I'd update you on the other quagmire unraveling the fourth reich at breakneck pace. An Israeli "public servant" declared to the world they could be getting away with starving two million human beings were it of or the rest of the world standing in the way. People like me, in other words. You're welcome.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-it-may-be-justified-to-starve-2-million-gazans-but-world-wont-let-us/amp/
...were it not* for...
My kingdom for an Edit
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