As rumors swirl that Joe Biden is considering withdrawal, it becomes even more urgent that he should do it right! While I like Kamala Harris, it is not a good idea for her to be automatically crowned by right of inheritance.
It's not too late to do this in a manner that will show maturity, deference to the convention delegates, and flamboyant pride in the deep bench of the Democratic Party.
A win-win-win scenario that I described here.
But onward. This is gonna be a long one.
== And meanwhile, Vlad Putin attacks! Using his 5th column dogs ==
Among all of the Kremlin shills who are quisling us daily, Steve Bannon stands out for medals from Putin's KGB Old Guard of "ex" commissars. In this Guardian puff piece, Bannon makes clear that he, at least, is fighting the war on expertise that I often describe.
"A question about how Bannon defines “Make America great again” (Maga) leads to a stream of consciousness that touches on “salt of the earth” guys he knew in the navy; Robert Clive, the British soldier and administrator who conquered India; the American civil war (“Lincoln was an ultranationalist”); and today’s struggle between a credential class and the citizens denied a seat at the table. Says Bannon:
Like Steve Bannon ever 'worked his ass off!' Of course none of this is surprising from a Putin mouthpiece and traitor.
What shocks me every day is the polemical ineptitude of Democrats, never even trying to demolish this ‘elites’ narrative. Which they could do by demanding:
“WHO were the elites oppressing common folk across all continents, for at least 4000 years?"
Do you assume that average citizens cannot answer that simple question? Okay, that assumption of yours IS elitist! In fact, even ill-educated folk know the answer, if only from movies.
The oppressors were always kings and lords who owned all the land and all the money. Noble castes, who used swords and warped laws to repress the sons and daughters of workers and farmers and tradesmen, so they would stay in their places, ignorant and poor and cringing before the lords’ inheritance brats.
Go on. Name a time and place that broke this pattern! There were a few, such as Periclean Athens. Republican Florence… and our recent, 250 year enlightenment experiment! During which -- (too slowly, but inexorably) -- a person’s place in the world became more about their accomplishments and character, not the color of their father’s skin… or of his money!
That is what 'made America great!' As Adam Smith wrote, general equality is the only thing that generates flat-fair-competitive creativity. And inherited dominance is exactly what cheaters used to make the rest of human history a living hell.
That is what the American founders rebelled against. GO NOW and actually read the Declaration of Independence. Or Thomas Paine and the rest! Were they denouncing 'credentialed' civil servants? Or the kings and tyrants who owned almost everything and used that power to cheat and turn their spoiled brats into gods?
That was never free enterprise.
Free enterprise is a flat fair competitive playing field! Again that's what cheater inheritance brats suppressed for at least 4000 years. And that’s what the new lords fear most.
(See in first comment proof, how the US Founders seized and redistributed cheater/lordly wealth to combat any trace of inheritance feudalism. Oh, how the GOPper brats don't want you realizing that!)
== Those horrible 'credentialed elites'! ==
Funny thing about today’s MAGA rage against cities and universities and all the ‘credentialed elites’. The fifty million or so Americans who built the inventions and industries that actually made America great. The doctors you go to, in order to live longer. The innovators who made food and clothing and housing so cheap and safe that all of you, even the poor, live in greater comfort than past lords. The inventors and military officers who deterred an Evil Empire. The FBI & Intel folks who cracked schemes by the nefarious (and now relabeled) KGB. The teachers and scientists who made us the wonder of all ages. And the tens of millions of less-credentialed folks who work side-by-side with the 'credentialed' and who know that fact 'elites' are a lot more earthy and grounded and sharing and satiably sane than the spoiled brat kind!
When Foxites yammer about ‘elites,’ they never, ever glance at the real elites who have ripped us all off! The ones who connive with each other and bribe or blackmail politicians in order to gather all the wealth, just like all the kings and lords… and commie commissars… did in the past. Bazillionaires whose wealth has skyrocketed past the stratosphere because of Republican ‘supply side’ bills that gave cheaters access to our throats!
Hey, getting-rich by delivering a better product or service is as American as apple pie. I am among those on this planet most known for pushing folks to actually read the actual writings of the actual Adam Smith, who - (along with the US Founders) - denounced inherited class as the enemy of fair enterprise!
Now? Wealth disparities have zoomed past levels in the French Revolution! And so, to avoid the inevitable result, the super-rich and their inheritance brats… and their “ex” commissar pals in the Kremlin... plus murder sheiks, casino mafiosi, drug lords and hedge fund moguls… finance this campaign to get you to “look over there and not at us!”
Stirring up America’s 250 year culture divide, they urge you to join with them and howl at other ‘elites.’ The ‘elite’ of fifty million American nerds and others who are your brothers and sisters! Your sons and daughters who happened to go to university to learn some stuff!
Their agenda - which dems never have the savvy to make clear - is to distract from the real elites, who are laser focused on restoring 4000 years of feudalism. Distract by getting dopes to wage all-out war vs all fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror!
Conservative Americans are talked into howling at… the FBI? Seriously? At all the intel agencies who thwart Putin and China daily? At the United States military officer corps? At half a million of our finest heroes?
The very same list that Vlad Putin calls his enemies?
Say what???
A reporter for the Jerusalem Post named … David Brinn (no relation) … is there, covering the front lines. Like most educated or modernist Israelis, he is appalled by Netanyahu – their version of Trump. On the other hand, there are few more despicable creatures on the planet than the Hamas monsters who taxed the people Gaza into poverty for forty years for the sake of terror tunnels, scud rockets and Gulf parasite-billionaires. Monsters who refused to allow the moderate PLA to contest faux ‘elections,’ then murderously killed and took hostage children and civilians across the border…
… but worst of all…
... consistently and always herd Gazan civilians in front of themselves as human shields, shooting past the exposed heads of children or deliberately from hospitals, hoping to draw Israeli fire and thus win in the battleground of world opinion. (Evil? Yes, but also smart. They suckered some of you.)
Anyway, David Brinn – again, no relation – offers up this video: Rimon’s Song, about a few released hostages and those who are murdered and those stuck behind.
Again. Is Netanyahu a war criminal, for not ordering adaptive methods to (at both risk and inevitable cost) spare as many of the innocent human shields as possible? Absolutely! So are the Wahabbi cultists who have spread millions of Arabic textbooks and TV shows for kids, ranting for 80 years “Death to all Jews everywhere!”
If you were surrounded by such subsidized hate by insatiable and unappeasable fanatics... who abuse their own people and treat their own women like cattle... perhaps you might have a shorter temper, too.
And the world is getting hotter.
== Finally… ==
Let me finish with Compiled images of how thoroughly the Trumpists are Kremlin shills. Look carefully at Jill Stein (who made Trump president) dining with her bosses Putin & Flynn. Pardoned by Trump, Flynn now flies round the US urging violent civil war.
See DT's pal & campaign mgr Paul Manafort winking with Putin.
But the most horrible image is one week after DT took office, when he invited Lavrov & Kisliak - long, long before any ally could get an audience - to giggle ecstatically together over their coup and their planned demolition of NATO. Zoom in close. LOOK at the faces!
Vlad musta thought he had it made.
Their one hope in 2024? That a million or so lefty idiots will sanctimoniously flounce off to the next Nader-Stein Kremlin shill, betraying the only coalition that stands a chance of saving the world.
Hey, they've done it often and will again. Preventing that betrayal takes up half of the time of Bernie, Liz, AOC, Stacey, Jaime et. al.
Alas, such flouncing sanctimony-preening overrules (trumps?) all statistics and fact.
So here’s another counter meme for your uncle.
233 comments:
1 – 200 of 233 Newer› Newest»HOW could dems allow the "Tea Party" to co-opt the US Revolution, all those years? The Revolution against Kings and lords and monopolistic cheaters? Against dominance by inherited oligarchy? THOSE are mentioned and denounced in the Declaration of Independence, often. Now show me where the Founders railed against 'credentialed' elites like scientists or teachers or doctors or civil servants?
Did you know that the Founders seized about a third of all the land in the former colonies from absentee aristocratic lords and redistributed it to poor citizens? Okay, that meant poor white males. But it shifted power from 0.001% to about 25% of the population and that was a big step! (They also banned primogeniture, so that big family fortunes would naturally dissipate into many children.)
Later, Lincoln and the Blue America alliance seized the 'property' of feudal plantation lords and redistributed that chattel property into poor hands... the freed slaves wh now got to own themselves. And it happened again - a bit more gently - under T Roosevelt and again with FDR... AND IN ALL CASES THE RESULT WAS MORE ENTERPRISE! More flat fair creative competitive markets! MORE! not less.
I could go on. But even brilliant guys like Robert Reich never quite get to this. It is exactly what this phase 8 of the US Civil War is about, exactly like all the other phases! An attempted putsch by would be lords to end the experiment forever and re-establish 6000 years of dismal, cruelly stupid and failed governance by inheritance brats.
And for all the raciism and other nastly traits of today's confederatism, it is the all-out war against fact-people and professions... call-em nerds... that gets the least attention and may be the most important.
Just an FYI: That’s not Paul Manafort winking at Putin, it’s ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych
Off topic. Simply the best thing I have ever seen. Maybe ever! Certainly today.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1017759143684050
RC really? LOOKS like Manafort.
Doublespeak is indeed powerful. Made more so by the embarrassed hesitancy of facing the truth, even after it is realized. Psychology is prime. Transistors are only second, I have to admit.
Their one hope in 2024? That a million or so lefty idiots will sanctimoniously flounce off to the next Nader-Stein Kremlin shill, betraying the only coalition that stands a chance of saving the world.
Strange World we live in. Our Greens are the only party I would declare somewhat free of the influence of both the Kremlin and Western oligarchs. That is why they receive the greatest amount of political hate over here.
Did you know that the Founders seized about a third of all the land in the former colonies from absentee aristocratic lords and redistributed it to poor citizens?
Well...The more I learn about that time period, I am not so sure that would not have had benefits if the American Revolution had failed. For once, the native population would surely have been warm to the idea of not being genocided, or at least not so fast, and slavery might have ended in 1833. (Which could have sparked a parallel to the Civil War later, or a new insurrection ... but maybe not one supported by the north.)
Louisiana would probably have been conquered and not bought. At the start of the last century, you might have become independent like Canada.
And now, 250 years later, GB is not without it's problems, but still a vital democracy as we have seen in the last weeks, and still has some form of public healthcare system, while the US struggle with the transition into a new feudal autocracy.
Tony Fisk under previous comments:
Dang! and we were nearly up to page three!
Naw, that wouldn't have been until 400 posts.
We did once get over 300. Dr Brin's post about Ayn Rand in late 2011.
Dr Brin in the main post:
Conservative Americans are talked into howling at… the FBI? Seriously? At all the intel agencies who thwart Putin and China daily?
Not only that, but even from their POV--remember the 1960s? The cops and the FBI were the ones making sure those dirty hippie leftists and black activists and fairies knew their place. Heck, remember the 1930s? Fascists were given a pass if not active support, as long as they weren't communists.
Not only that, but even from their POV--remember the 1960s? The cops and the FBI were the ones making sure those dirty hippie leftists and black activists and fairies knew their place. Heck, remember the 1930s? Fascists were given a pass if not active support, as long as they weren't communists.
The dilemma the protector caste is in if Trump wins at November 5th:
If they do nothing, Trump and Project 2025 will destroy the constitution they have sworn to defend.(Or they might loose their careers and jobs or get one of the political appointees as their new boss and might be forced to do things that have been unlawful prior to him.)
If they do something, they destroy it themselves.
I wonder if there is another outcome.
Der Oger:
The dilemma the protector caste is in if Trump wins at November 5th:
Is that Zugzwang? A chess term I had never heard before recently, meaning every possible move is bad. Suddenly, the term seems to be everywhere.
Larry,
more precisely Zugzwang is where the obligation to make a move places you at a disadvantage compared to what your situation would have been if you could decline to make a move.
Zugzwang occurs in many turn-based board games, Monopoly for example. Of course, one could always just flip the game board and start a brawl with the opponent(s). As with the Asimov line that Colbert used recently.
Is that Zugzwang? A chess term I had never heard before recently, meaning every possible move is bad. Suddenly, the term seems to be everywhere.
Maybe. After you have squandered all good options because you thought them to be too difficult, costly and radical to implement, only bad options remain. This is one of the traps of centrist policies.
And the other one is the fact that only few coup attempts actually work.
One reading of the 2016 Turkey Coup attempt is that the generals, who saw themselves always as laicist protectors of the republic, saw what Erdogan would do to the country, and they tried to depose him - without having the support of a large portion of the troops and the population, who in part had still bitter memory about the last coup. Instead of deposing him, they strengthened him, and afterwards he could easily replace any member of that caste with a yes-man.
Another anecdote would be that when the coup attempt in Russia happened in 1992, a third of KGB officers called in sick. Others misdirected ressources so that they could not be used, like, truckloads of manacles.
And a second reason not to coup is: studies have found that frequent coups reduce the willingness of the population to engage in political processes. People become indifferent to violent political changes and corruption.
Anyone living in Ohio or knowing people there?
Beau of the Fifth column just reported that 160.000 voter registrations have been removed.
side note. This guy briefly make my point about the WWII Sherman tank, which I assert was the best of WWII at thre three jobs of a general purpose tank: (1) infantry support, (2) breakthrough exploitation, (3) fighting other tanks. Sure, it could only do #3 because it could be put into battle in great numbers. But it was! and #1 and #2 were more important and superb. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yMWuD_XkpJY
Lloyd Flack:
the obligation to make a move places you at a disadvantage compared to what your situation would have been if you could decline to make a move.
But if you could decline to make a move, couldn't your opponent do the same, so the situation remains unchanged?
@Der Oger,
I mean this as a compliment, though one mixed with a bit of astonishment.
How is it that you're so tuned into American politics, probably moreso than most Americans are and certainly more than most Americans know about German politics?
How is it that you're so tuned into American politics, probably moreso than most Americans are and certainly more than most Americans know about German politics?
Multiple reasons.
First, personally, I always was interested in politics and history, and studied politics for a time. I want to understand how and why people and societies function the way they do, and I believe there are underlying rules that are universal, regardless of local peculiarities. I involved myself deeper during and after the George Floyd protests. And I like to discuss politics, though civilian settings are hard to come by, even over here, online discourse is either shut down immediately or poisoned by extremists and bots.
Second, everything is interconnected: If you go down, so do we. Not just through Trumps foreign and economic policies, which will be bad enough. (Just think of us paying protection money for the nuclear umbrella ... not into the US budget, but Trumps private accounts.)
There are networks like Atlas who operate worldwide to subvert democracy, and install regimes who meet their vision of humanity. They succeeded in Argentina with Milei, and in Uganda with the implementation of the death penalty for homosexuals.
For the last three years or so, the conservatives over here have used the Trump playbook and Bannons "Flooding The Zone With Shit"; their success was limited, though. The real winners have been the fringes like the AfD-Nazis and Sarah Wagenknechts Crypto-Stalinists.And so on.
Third, a small number of American friends and acquaintances. Expats, exchange students, children of Americans and Germans. Most of them left-leaning and frustrated.
Finally, expressing myself in a different language and thus improving or maintaining my skills.
Der Oger you have skills.
Ja, es ist ermutigend.
Alan, je ne te compris pas.
Instrumenta translationis linguae bonae habemus.
Heute ist der 80 jahrestag des Witerstandputches.
Der Oger you have skills.
Thank you.
Heute ist der 80 jahrestag des Witerstandputches.
Used to be a National Holiday, until the Reunification. We should have kept it.
I, personally, found the actions of Georg Elser and the White Rose, Edelweiss Pirates and even von Galen more inspiring; although all of them failed, they did something. The conservatives planned their coup at least as soon as the Munich conference, and postponed it time and again until it did almost not matter anymore.
All my German is military minutiae, and the fact that my hovercraft is full of eels. It's not really useful to be able to discuss Fallshirmjager or Luftkissenfahrzeug when you don't have any.
Pappenheimer
P.S. it's seriously amazing how many times Hitler was nearly assassinated. It looks like the Nazis made a half-hearted attempt to off Stalin (part of Operation Zeppelin, which I knew vaguely about), but I don't see any internal attempts...of course, you might not. Any failed attempts would disappear. Wiki reminded me there was indeed a coup attempt on Mao, but not until 1971...and did not go well. Further evidence for the gnostic idea that the part of God is being played by an evil impersonator.
"Hitler, 1945: "I guess if you need something done, mach es selbst..."
Prior to last week, we were speculating on what Trump's pick for running mate might mean.
From this article, I gather JD Vance may be Thiel's
It looks like the Nazis made a half-hearted attempt to off Stalin (part of Operation Zeppelin, which I knew vaguely about), but I don't see any internal attempts...of course, you might not. Any failed attempts would disappear.
I recommend watching The Death of Stalin, if for no other reason than VP does not like it.
"Hitler, 1945: "I guess if you need something done, mach es selbst..."
I get that joke. He already succeeded in this even without putting a bullet in his head. All that micromanagement required a large amount of "vitamin treatments" (read: Methamphetamine) and he already was a burned-out husk during the final days. If you are interested, dig into the history of his personal doctors, their quackery, corruption and intrigues.
As for the putschists, most of them were officers who once took an oath to die in their uniforms if necessary. Canaris and others had direct access to the Führer, and if you can smuggle a bomb into a headquarter, you also can do it with handguns and do the dirty work yourself.
What they lacked, in addition to a spine, was the loyalty of enlisted troops. Orders and Obedience only get you so far if you don't have the support of your lower ranks. May be that was the reason the coup in Bolivia failed. And maybe Prighozin understood that well enough to explain the rants in the weeks prior to his own coup.
Speaking of Stalin's death, only 3 people have to die in order for the Axis to win.
The big one of course is the "Man in the High Castle" Scenario where Zangara manages to kill FDR in Miami at the start of his first term.
No FDR, no New Deal and America remains mired in the Great Depression with capital and labor at war with each other's throats right up until the bombs fall. All that potential industrial might left idle until it is too late.
Furthermore, the incompetents and isolationists that follow don't give Britain Lend Lease during its Darkest Hour, forcing the Brits to make an accommodation with the Reich after Dunkirk. Also no lend lease to Soviet Russia. And no oil embargo of Japan which can then proceed to conquer China. We would probably see a pro-Hitler president like Lindbergh, "The Plot Against America" becoming reality.
Needless to say, the isolationist president that receives the Einstein letter warning about Hitler getting the A-Bomb ignores it. So no Manhattan Project.
The second death is Winston Churchill, who was struck by a taxi while visiting NYC in the 1920s. He was hit and dragged half a block but was amazingly unhurt.
In this TL, Churchill dies and nobody warns Britain about the menace of Hitler. And after Dunkirk an appeaser like Halifax makes peace with the Reich and Britain begins its long slide into fascism. Indian nationalists like Gandhi and Nehru are dealt with accordingly.
The third death is Stalin, who was so despondent after the first month of Barbarossa that he almost ate a bullet in his dacha outside of Moscow.
In this TL Stalin pulls the trigger and the Soviet Union can't survive both an internal power struggle to replace Stalin while being simultaneously gutted by German panzers.
History is always balanced on a knife's edge.
Some people just can't get irony.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul21-1.html
T.C. in Columbia, MO, writes: You wrote: "There's a very good BBC video that painstakingly shows that the distance [from the shooter to Trump] was 132.85 meters. Unfortunately, there is no known way to translate that into yards, which is the measure that God intended for people to use. So, the BBC's estimate will unfortunately be meaningless to all of our American readers."
32 meters is about 35 yards. That works out to 145.3 yards. Nearly 1.5 American football fields (not to be confused with football pitches).
(V) & (Z) respond: We got many e-mails from readers explaining how it actually is possible to convert yards to meters. Do readers REALLY think that: (1) not only are we ignorant of that fact, but (2) we think that God favors one system of measurement over another? C'mon, folks.
I can't cut and paste the screenshots, but a reader re-posts a confrontation between Alan Lichtman and Nate Silver.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul21-1.html
@Angry_Staffer:
Nate,
@Alan_Lichtman has predicted all but one of the last 14 races.
You're not even batting .500
Maybe sit this one out.
* * *
@NateSilver538:
Alan, you wanna bet? Let's say 250k at even odds?
DP Dick's novel is great, but not very plausible.
I agree that the death of FDR would be a worse timeline. Though JN Garner seems very much in the model of LBJ, very well-connected, vigorous at legislation, and while less liberal did help push FDR’s legislation… as JFK’s entire agenda was enacted by LBJ, spurred by JFKs martyrdom. Garner supported national legislation against lynching.
Garner retired to… Uvalde Texas. “On the morning of Garner's 95th birthday, November 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy called to wish him a happy birthday. This was several hours before Kennedy's assassination.” Huh.
Crux. Not at all sure the US would have collapsed without FDR.
Churchill’s death would certainly have also weakened us. As would Edward staying king.
But Stalin? Any power struggle would have been swift and the officers he had jailed free from gulags to head to the front. No way that wouldn’t have helped. E.g.perhaps mollifying Ukrainians and others not to join the Nazi cause.
Japan would have over-extended to the point of evaporation.
I have to say, even though there has been so much stupid in our unfortunate timeline, I am fascinated and a bit mesmerized (in the manner of watching a train wreck) with the stupidity of Nick Fuentes and his ilk with their racist attacks on Usha Vance. Do they not realize that if Vance gets power and we get a Night of the Long Knives sequel, their dumb asses are at the top of the list?
Of course they don't, because they are they stupid and that ignorant.
Also I find the racism revolting, even when it's directed at someone I oppose politically.
Some GQPers and their media shills are squawking like Br'er Rabbit against JB dropping out.
AOC's take on the JB debate makes sense. Blue wins on Nov 5 in swing states will be strongly contested. Remember SCOTUS. A hastily redrawn Dem ticket won't help.
scidata: Some GQPers and their media shills are squawking like Br'er Rabbit against JB dropping out.
AOC's take on the JB debate makes sense. Blue wins on Nov 5 in swing states will be strongly contested. Remember SCOTUS. A hastily redrawn Dem ticket won't help.
This is why the Dems aggravate me so. It's one reason why I've always officially been an Indy, even though now there is no real functional difference between me and an official Democrat, seeing as the GOP is insane. Everyone knows about the bad debate performance. If the "Joe needs to go" crowd has additional info that makes it clear that Biden has declined significantly, they need to put up or shut up, yesterday. But the window is also closing for the people who say "Joe is just fine" to also put up or shut up. I get that he'll have to recover from Covid, but if he's going to stay in, he's going to have to do many more live and unscripted appearances, and no more excuses about that debate.
I'd prefer Biden to stay in, but that is contingent on his people NOT covering up a major cognitive health issue.
WHO were the elites oppressing common folk across all continents, for at least 4000 years? ==> The oppressors were always kings and lords who owned all the land and all the money.
But, now that the kings, lords & ladies are mostly dead, who rules in their stead? Why, it is the monied & credentialed classes where there is a "strong correlation" between income, educational attainment & religious affiliation.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/10/11/how-income-varies-among-u-s-religious-groups/
Those horrible 'credentialed elites'... The fifty million or so ... who built the inventions and industries ... The doctors ... The innovators ... The inventors and military officers ... The FBI & Intel folks ... The teachers and scientists...
In the USA, this translates to minority rule by a top 15% (1) who are self-selected & appointed, (2) who were never 'elected' and (3) who are not answerable to the democratic process, majority rule or the popular will.
Though these elites be highly educated and 'credentialed' (whatever that means), they are still technically 'tyrants' who rule without the sanction of the majority, and a tyrant is a tyrant is a tyrant, whether beneficent or otherwise.
Sic Semper Et Cetera.
And, Boom!! Biden is gone.
Best
Well, the pundits got their wish. For everyone's sakes, I hope that there is a medical report to be disclosed.
DP Dick's novel is great, but not very plausible.
From what I remember, at least he got the Nazi top brass quite right, even their crazy plan to build a dam at Gibraltar.
An excerpt from one of my stories -- "The Logs" -- expressing respect for certain Slavic traits of endurance that - alas - right now are serving Ukrainians well... though Russians (the main characters) are not being well-served by that trait, right now.
====
All over both planet Earth and the Solar System, humanity was coming to terms with harsh reality. With the way of the Coss, whose conquest swept aside such fragile things as “enlightenment,” or democracy, or the liberal way of viewing a gracious, benign universe.
That narrow age had flared so successfully, so brilliantly, it created a mass delusion. That all people might have worth, freedom and unlimited prospects. That competition might be so open, fair, individual and courteous that it becomes indistinguishable from joyful cooperation. That anyone’s child might become as great as any other.
For a time, it seemed that Hawaii or California might be archetypes for a new, endlessly golden age -- a sunny beach of prosperity, progress and opportunity. How few were those who pointed out the chief lesson of history -- that ninety-nine percent of human generations had endured a far more classic, more archetypical human social structure.
First tribal chiefdoms... and then feudalism.
Mighty lords, applying total power over helpless vassals. During the Enlightenment Summer, some fools -- Americans, especially -- naively thought the long era of noble oppressors was over and done for good. In fact, they still, insanely, call feudalism an aberration, unstable and untenable, instead of the way that nature conspires with the strong.
And so, rebelling against the Coss time and again, Americans have died like wheat in the field.
But Russians never forgot. Amid the brightest days, even when others called us gloomy and dour, we knew. The tartars, the czars, the commissars and oligarchs... they murmured in our sleep, never letting us forget. And when the Coss came in overwhelming strength, re-establishing a feudal order -- only with an alien caste on top -- we Russians knew our options. There were... and are... and always will be just two.
To knuckle under, and survive.
Or to fight, but with the grinding, stoical patience of Pyotr Alexeyevich, or of Tolstoy. Or Lenin....
---
Full story is in Best of David Brin stories... my best stuff! http://www.davidbrin.com/bestofdavidbrin.html
His absence led me to read a few lines of idiocy. Kinga and lords and owner monopolists and inheritance brats are... GONE?
OMG what an absolutely monstrous idiot.
Re: Biden/Presidential campaign:
If the whole electoral circus was a screenwriter's proposal for a television series, I'd say "Woah! Tone it down a little bit! It becomes implausible!"
Let's look forward to the next episodes.
An excerpt from one of my stories -- "The Logs" -- expressing respect for certain Slavic traits of endurance that - alas - right now are serving Ukrainians well... though Russians (the main characters) are not being well-served by that trait, right now.
I have come to see Russia more and more as a multitude of cultures hold together not by a common narrative (like, the US have been, a few decades ago), but by repression. Those who die and bleed in Ukraine are usually drafted from rural areas, the Far East and the southern, islamic areas. The important urban centers which VP needs to remain in power are usually spared (unless, you get arrested for, say, protesting against the war). In addition to that, there is an additional division between the elder generations (poisoned by nostalgia and propaganda on state-controlled media) and the younger ones (being able to bypass the censorship and being those send to the grinder).
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Joe Biden has roughly six months left in office. He's no longer concerned with reelection. I'm not sure how much longer he's going to live after he leaves office. The technical term for this is: Totally Out of Fucks to Give.
And the Supreme Court, with the full throated agreement of Republicans, conveniently just handed him total immunity for any actions he might take between now and January.
I don't know, man, but that sure seems like an opportunity to fix a lot of shit.
@Larry
I don't know, man, but that sure seems like an opportunity to fix a lot of shit.
He speaks out something I dared not to do.
My main feeling right now is great anger at the hypocritical double standards of the pundits and most of the news media. Joe Biden did not deserve to be put through the wringer while Trump was simultaneously treated with deluxe kid gloves.
Speaking of media treatments, and oligarchs...
Stonekettle has some interesting views on tactics, but I think Biden takes the longer view: longer than his remaining years.
... which doesn't stop him from stirring a few possums* by musing aloud on what he *could* do in six months with what the SC has handed his office. (and note also: he won't be so distracted by electioneering.)
* Who, Joe?
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
It's a grim day, I grant you that, but you HAVE to find some major laughs in the part where Joe Manchin seriously thinks he might actually have a shot at the Democratic nomination.
That shit is fucking hilarious.
The only job I ever truly loved was the short, glorious time I was a professional FORTH programmer (mid 1980s). I was fired for my stuttering and lack of communication skills. Broke my f'ing heart.
Shoot, Kamala is the only viable candidate for a practical reason...she's the only one that can access the accumulated Biden/Harris war chest. Federal election law bans the campaign from transferring funds to another campaign other than relatively small amounts.
'Shoot' might be a euphemism to put on the shelf for now.
So my Fullbright girl sent a response to my recent Weimar rant saying that I needed to take some time off from the news to decompress*. She's not wrong.
Then, this morning, my son tells me President Biden is no longer running for office.
Looks like I picked the wrong day to give up smoking/sniffing glue/snorting crack - sorry, surfing the internet.
On the other hand, I did binge watch a chunk of Witch Hunter Robin and some Babylon Berlin (in Deutsch, with subtitles). So, I feel better. Kind of.
Pappenheimer
*of course, She's currently awaiting her visa preparatory the getting the hell out Dodge - er, Pittsburgh - before the Deluge.
John Viril:
Federal election law bans the campaign from transferring funds to another campaign other than relatively small amounts.
Could the campaign incorporate and then give unlimited donations to another campaign? Citizens United and all.
I'm still not clear how Democrats are bound by campaign finance laws but Elon Musk can give $45 million a month to the Trump campaign and Peter Thiel can essentially create J.D. Vance as a wholly owned subsidiary.
Pappenheimer:
Looks like I picked the wrong day to give up smoking/sniffing glue/snorting crack
I can make a hat, or a brooch, or a pterodactyl. :)
(Sorry, Venkman, I'm terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought.)
In his interview with George Stephanopoulos, Joe Biden said it would take the Lord Almighty to get him to drop out.
The editors are probably being a bit snarky, but this meme is up there with "Trump said he'd only be a dictator for a day." Trump said he'd only start being a dictator on the first day he could, almost the opposite thing. And likewise, President Biden never said he's only drop out if the Lord Almighty told him to. He said that that would be a sufficient condition, not a necessary one.
The quote above was from here:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul22-1.html
Re: Weimar:
Heard the After America Podcast on You Tube over the weekend. In the third episode, they talk about Weimar and the late Roman Republic and parallels to the current era.
On Stephanie Miller's radio show, the Rude Pundit suggests what might sound like a snarky joke at first, but I'm totally willing to believe it. That DJT doesn't understand that the word "asylum" has two different meanings, and that's why he keeps thinking that immigrants are coming from mental institutions--that they are coming here demanding entry into our insane asylums.
On the same radio show, the Rude Pundit also agrees with me that on the day after the election, President Biden should pardon Hunter. I'll go him one further and say that he should award Hunter the same Presidential Medal of Freedom (or whatever it's called) that Trump gave to Rush Limbaugh.
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Among the chaotic maelstrom of responses to Biden's announcement yesterday, one thing is crystal clear: REPUBLICANS think it is somehow their God-given Constitutional inalienable right to decide the Democratic Party nominee.
They are absolutely outraged Biden made his decision and Democrats are proceeding towards a replacement without due consideration of Republican feelings on the matter.
They're almost as outraged by this as they are at the idea of YOU deciding how you'll run YOUR life.
They are absolutely outraged Biden made his decision and Democrats are proceeding towards a replacement without due consideration of Republican feelings on the matter.
All that money spent on attack ads and oppo research, and now it is all for nothing. So sad.
Der Oger:
All that money spent on attack ads and oppo research
From what I'm hearing, Trump wants the Democratic Party to reimburse him for "fraud".
Larry Hart:
Trump sees fraud everywhere for about the same reason that a man with jaundice sees yellow everywhere.
To argue that bourgeois monied 'monopolists and inheritance brats' EQUAL blue-blooded aristocratic 'Kings and lords', this is a remarkably cynical bourgeois assertion, but it does appear to apply to the current US election cycle.
Should we then to assume that the possession of large monetary sums is conferred by Dei Gratia and/or Divine Right?
And, if so, can someone send me a current price list for a kingship, duchy, barony, presidency, legislative position or judgeship?
Best
Stonekettle: "Among the chaotic maelstrom of responses to Biden's announcement yesterday, one thing is crystal clear: REPUBLICANS think it is somehow their God-given Constitutional inalienable right to decide the Democratic Party nominee." Ex=squeeze me? If you want all folks to have a say in to choices for the general election, then YOU GOPper cheaters STOP GERRYMANDERING! The one thing that has utterly transformed US politics into fanaticism.
Meanwhile though...
Okay it’s Kamala and I’ll fight for her and all’s good. Maybe B+ good. I still think the pre-convention forum would have been a win-win-win. I know it was discussed at levels higher than normal for me… maybe 4 levels below where it’d do any good. Alas, it was inevitably killed by Not Invented Here.
Thing to remember is Kamala would have access to the funds as EITHER Prz or VP nominee. It is possible (implausible) to imagine her as VP of someone else! “I expect I’ll be president someday. I am young and in no hurry. What matters is beating Putin… I mean Trump.” It couldn’t be Newson-Harris, of course, or Harris Newsom, alas. Bernie-Harris raises a smile that we’re in Mad Magazine country. Whitmer Harris? That’d be something!
And the other way around IS still a possibility.
Pete B would slay Vance and melt him into a puddle! But woman + gay may be a bridge too far. Especially with the problem of Black and Hispanic men. I’m guessing she’ll choose a lesser Dem governor. Though Biden may be the chooser.
My wife, too young to recall any of the pain, rolls her eyes when I say “Any random WEEK of 1968 was more tense and fraught than this entire ‘crisis year’!” Yes, we are in a similar time of absolutely crucial decision, calling for fortitude! But my dad was 30 feet from Bobby that awful night in LA and I urge you all to pick a RANDOM week in 68 and scan the news.
Try this one, about the LAST time the Democrats held a convention in Chicago. Then cinch your belt. Dig in.
(And remember that GOP presidential candidates never win without a lot of help from frippy leftists who betray us to flounce off to Kremlin agents like Nader & Stein. THAT is the direct cause and effect.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKV4JVy2WoM
Dr Brin:
Stonekettle: "Among the chaotic maelstrom of responses to Biden's announcement yesterday, one thing is crystal clear: REPUBLICANS think it is somehow their God-given Constitutional inalienable right to decide the Democratic Party nominee." Ex=squeeze me? If you want all folks to have a say in to choices for the general election, then YOU GOPper cheaters STOP GERRYMANDERING!
No, see, their position is entirely consistent. When did they ever say they want "all folks" to have a say? What Stonekettle correctly said was that they think it is "their" (that is, Republicans') "right to decide." Gerrymandering is simply one means to that end.
Though Biden may be the chooser.
Sounds to me as if the donors who withheld funds until Biden dropped out will be the choosers. I hope they want the Dem to actually win.
My wife, too young to recall any of the pain, ...
Heh. I robbed the cradle too.
Try this one, about the LAST time the Democrats held a convention in Chicago.
Wasn't that in 1996?
But yeah, for a look at the aftermath of 1968, I like Aaron Sorkin's Netflix drama, "The Trial of the Chicago Seven". Even though it is a blatant fictionalization. It captures the spirit of the time.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/opinion/maga-trump-vance-democrats.html
...
The American consciousness has traditionally been an abundance consciousness. Successive waves of immigrants found a vast continent of fertile fields and bustling cities. In 1910, Henry van Dyke, who later became the U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands and Luxembourg, wrote a book called “The Spirit of America,” in which he observed that “the Spirit of America is best known in Europe by one of its qualities — energy.” In the 20th century, Luigi Barzini, an Italian observer, argued that Americans have a zeal for continual self-improvement, a “need tirelessly to tinker, improve everything and everybody, never leave anything alone.”
Many foreign observers saw us, and we saw ourselves, as the dynamic nation par excellence. We didn’t have a common past, but we dreamed of a common future. Our sense of home was not rooted in blood-and-soil nationalism; our home was something we were building together. Through most of our history, we were not known for our profundity or culture but for living at full throttle.
MAGA, on the other hand, emerges from a scarcity consciousness, a zero-sum mentality: If we let in tons of immigrants they will take all of our jobs; if America gets browner, “they” will replace “us.” MAGA is based on a series of victim stories: The elites are out to screw us. Our allies are freeloading off us. Secular America is oppressing Christian America.
...
The MAGA/confederate/commie madness is not just zero-sum and infinitely delusional-terrified. It is also totally incantatory. Masturbation incantations replace facts, like at the RNC chanting desperately that America is NOT in vastly better condition - economically and in all other ways - than 4 years ago.
(And yet, dems are too stoopid, ALWAYS, to simply demand "BET on it, like a man would do!")
As part of this incantation reflex, RELABELING cancels all history!
Putin and 5000 "ex" commissars who grew up reciting Leninist catechisms five times a day and who called the fall of the USSR "history's greatest tragedy" are NOT a pack of commie-Stalinist SOBs because... they changed some lapel pins!! The old KGB is still staffed and led by many of the same guys with the same goals and same (updated) methods. But because they changed the NAME and now actively support Trump, they're okay fellows!
As for those 6000 years of dominance and crushing of freedom by Kings and nobles and landlords and cheaters and their inheritance brats? Irrelevant! They changed their labels! They became slave-owner plantation lords.... oops... look away from those... Banana republic caudillo families and oil barons! No, wait...
Now? Casino mafiosi, hedge lords, murder sheiks and princes, tech zillionaires with 12 kids each... and "ex" commissars... all of them colluding to use state power to send wealth disparities skyrocketing past levels last seen before the French Revolution, hoarding lucre for thir spoiled inheritance brats. But... but...
... but they CHANGED THE LABELS!
'Bow before us! If you want us to keep throwing you scraps. And start by mob-hating the 50 million nerds who stand between us and total power.'
Again, the US Founders seized and redistributed 1/3 of the land and banned primogeniture and many other methods to keep the competitive field flat enough to be fair and creative, as did Lincoln T Roosevelt and FDR, spurring the greatest eras of market entrepreneurship, free enterprise and creative economics. And only Robert Reich is smart enough to USE such truths.
"... methods to keep the competitive field flat enough to be fair and creative..."
Well, for white males, that is. But it was a big step that led to vast increases in productivity, as did every other advance in inclusiveness and keeping the playing field flat enough for true competition. And ending all that is THE central goal of the oligarchy pushing the latest lord-loving treason.
Kamala Harris has raised over $81 million in her first 24 hours as a candidate, according to her campaign press release. That is almost twice what Trump raised after his felony conviction.
Money wins campaigns.
Harris just netted nearly 2X of an Elon (46 million $).
We are seeing the democratic base at work. Dang!
Der Oger redux:
All that money spent on attack ads and oppo research, and now it is all for nothing. So sad.
They've bet the farm on "Biden is old." And as usual, the actual president played them like fools, waiting until Trump picked (or had foisted upon him by Peter Thiel) J.D. Vance as VP, a man who brings no new voting bloc that wasn't already on board to the ticket. Just as he delivered a $10 BILLION profit to the treasury by flipping some of the strategic reserve (unlike Trump who sold low and bought high). The man has mad political skills, and he's not done being president yet.
To quote President Madison at the end of the musical Hamilton :
He took our country from bankruptcy to prosperity.
I hate to admit it,
But he doesn't get enough credit for all the credit he gave us.
Or continuing my Superstar theme:
Did you mean to die like that,
Was that a mistake, or
Did you know your messy death
Would be a record-breaker?
Larry Hart: he's not done being president yet
The crucial period will be between election day & inauguration day. Might be a busy time for a President with King powers.
scidata:
The crucial period will be between election day & inauguration day. Might be a busy time for a President with King powers
Much could depend on who wins the November election.
Sadly, I don't think this particular president will do anything that smacks of overreach, much as the Republicans would deserve it if he did. Note that "Republicans will then do the same thing when they have power," is no longer an excuse. Republicans will do s### no matter what Democrats done done or didn't done done.*
I don't think he'll do it, but I'd love to see him pardon Hunter.
* Quote from Li'l Abner, courtesy of my late father.
"Much could depend on who wins the November election." Ya think?
"I'd love to see him pardon Hunter." BAH!
Just offer pardons to blackmail victims. And demand an end to NDAs.
Arizona Sen and astronaut Kelly sould be a good choice... and the name will drive Trump nuts.
On my FB page there's a veritable tsunami for Kelly. Sayeth one:
"What I love about Kelly is 1. Fighter pilot 2. Astronaut 3. Married to Gabby Giffords (gun violence survivor, former congresswoman D AZ) 4. Republicans in AZ like him even though he is LEFT of center which means 5. He can deliver AZ."
non-political musing:
@Dr Brin,
Third time is usually a charm for me. I don't think I will ever be able to read Kiln People again and be surprised at the identity of the impersonator of Beta's dittos. But on this third reading, I still didn't remember that ahead of time.
Dr Brin:
"I'd love to see him pardon Hunter." BAH!
In ordinary circumstances, I'd agree, but Trump already pardoned racist murderers, war criminals, and actual traitors. I don't mind if Biden does something that makes Republicans re-think the idea of giving the president free rein in the exercise of power.
Pardoning Hunter would relieve us of years of Hunter-targeted investigations in the future, and if it makes Republicans finally decide, "The president can't do that," and do something about it, well, that's frosting on the cake.
Stonekettle on Threads, responding to a J.D. Vance speech about how if they lose, it will take a civil war to save the country.
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
You ever notice how these people NEVER encourage their followers to "save the country" via democracy as laid out in the Constitution? They never think about saving the country by having better ideas, a better vision, an ideology that includes everyone, or appealing to a majority of voters. No, for them it's ALWAYS war and violence and fighting and hate and finding a way to exclude the people they don't like. Always.
Oh, and one more observation on Kiln People. You distinguish realAlbert from his dittos that way, long before there was a Twitter or someone calling himself realDonaldTrump.
Harris has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination as of about 15 minutes ago. Plus about 350 million $.
Progressive democrats have been the jet fuel behind solidifying her as the nominee.
Her opposition is centered around those donors that forced Biden out of the race, but they have lost beyond hope of recovering. Grassroots >> Millionaires.
All the cats in the liberal side of the party have just been herded with no visible shepherd. Media wanted a contested convention for better ratings.
Harris (and Biden behind the scenes) have just engineered a political miracle. This level of organization and ruthless action is extremely heartening.
The political judo that just went down shows a level of ruthlessness and planning that has Mitch McConnell reportedly telling his senate delegation to run away from supporting Trump.
Hope is a hell of a drug.
matthew, link re McConnell? If Harris can achieve the Obama miracle of preventing the usual betrayal by the Left, then terrific. She needs to calibrate center. And I was very bothered by her defense of forced chool busing in her primary debate with Joe, 4+ years ago. (Of course it was just an effort to mobilize the left when she had no real beefs with him. But FSB was the biggest mistake liberals EVER made. It wrecked what was left of the old Roosveltean alliance, to no good end. It was a monstrous bullying stupidity. And I hope she won't ever mention it again.)
But I hope you are right.
LH thanks for your kind words re KP! I have been working with an excellent AI Whisperer to create a movie pitch for KILN PEOPLE, some really spectacular art!
...and I will not break a living artist's rice bowl. These are sales pitches to employ MORE artists. I pay my artists. But you should see these!
This is a very good bit of writing:
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/biden-steps-aside-kamala-harris
Mr. Rupar does an excellent job of expressing some of the things I'm feeling about what's happened with Joe Biden in the past several weeks. I also appreciate the honesty of someone who has been so unabashedly pro-Biden coming to terms with the painful truth that it's likely not just one bad night, but rather Father Time finally prevailing. I hope that Joe gets some acknowledgement while he still lives.
Matthew, any source on that McConnell rumor? For all the damage that horrid man has done to this country (failing to convict Trump on his second impeachment is even a worse legacy than his SCOTUS cheating) it would be nice to know that he really was feeling some political angst.
The flood of donations is making it pretty clear who should be the Democrat's nominee. She won't lack for cash.
As for lack of oppo research on her, y'all are engaging in wishful thinking. She ran for AG and Senate here in California and I'm already seeing some of the material resurface for use in a Presidential campaign. Look up Willie Brown.
One bit of research I want to warn you Progressives about is that she's not as far left as you might imagine. She WAS our AG and did things that annoyed CA's far left. Please don't let that bother you too much, though. She WAS our AG. That was her job.
-------
As for what Biden does with his remaining months, I hope he does not do what any of you seem to secretly hope for with respect to usurpation of power. We really don't need more precedents being made in that direction. We need a Congress that curtails them with Executive cooperation.
SCOTUS is just one of the three co-equal branches. We don't want two of them normalizing King-like powers for the President.
------
scidata,
I was fired for my stuttering and lack of communication skills.
One of my most meaningful days at work a few years ago occured when I got a chance to go to bat for a teammate who we knew was moderately on the autism spectrum. His immediate boss knew too, but needed coaching from someone who knew him and had experience raising an autistic son. The boss had to dance VERY carefully with his words to avoid HR risks, so I just told him I was going to make a set of assumptions and he could stop me if my advice was wasting his time. He never did and the guy still works for us.
Those opportunities are rare in the professional IT world and I think that is a shame. There are so many talented people available IF those of us who are neurotypical can figure out how to cope with our social signals confusion.
Alfred,
We had a civilian contractor come and brief our squadron on an upcoming computer changeover back in the early 00's.
The guy was so far along the spectrum, so uncongruent with standard-mode human interaction, that he made even me, an aspie* with an autistic son, uncomfortable. I realized later that he must have been very very good at his job - the real life equivalent of
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BunnyEarsLawyer
*I know the diagnosis and even the name is outmoded
Pappenheimer
I'm not worried about Harris' liberal credentials; she's a CA democrat. I'm more worried about convincing enough USians that rumpt is, in fact, not going to solve inflation or magically seal the border, and is actually a direct threat to our democracy. Not going to begin ranting again about sleepwalking into Christofascism; will heed my Fullbright girl's advice and go watch anime instead.
Pappenheimer
As for Biden abusing the powers of office, that's mostly fantasy wishcraft. Man's so straight you can use him as a ruler, pun intended.
Yep David, I agree with you on Kelly, firs the bill of balancing the ticket perfectly (apart from him being a Californian native) and as a bonus he can laugh at Trump's matyrdom theatrics with authority.
Pappenheimer,
Yah. I don't know what to call the clade now and that's not out of over-caution relating to labels, pronouns, etc. I've met too many and seen too much variety that I'm left with "They are screwed if the rest of us fail to realize OUR limited expectations."
Conformity is a powerful tool for a social species, but it is stupid of us to take it too far.
-------
Regarding the political upheaval, I am cautiously optimistic. I refuse to get on the HOPE bandwagon, though. Obama won an election that way, but then he proved to be human and many of his supporters behaved as if they were betrayed. The made, poured, and drank the koolaide... and then got upset at HIM. (Dumb.)
Alfred Differ:
I want to warn you Progressives about is that she's not as far left as you might imagine
This liberal here doesn't want someone so far left that she scares off swing state voters. I'm hoping that her time as a prosecutor helps mitigate the fears of those voters who only see her as a colored woman.
The message now is, "All you voters who said you didn't want another Trump vs Biden rematch? Well, now you can vote for a 'third' candidate instead. How 'bout it?" With a smattering of, "Trump and Biden are both too old."
'Course the Republicans could do their own judo by having Trump drop out and Vance be the nominee.* I'd keep one eye open for that possibility, announced immediately after the DNC. Trump won't do it, though, unless he's "Manchurian Candidate"-ed by his own party.
* Last night, I saw Vance saying how disappointed he was that he himself now won't get to debate Kamala Harris, and that Trump gets to do so. Maybe a hint?
Alfred Differ:
I hope he does not do what any of you seem to secretly hope for with respect to usurpation of power. We really don't need more precedents being made in that direction. We need a Congress that curtails them with Executive cooperation.
We want the same things, but my feeling is that the only way Republicans in Congress will ever allow the president's power to be curtailed is if they're scared of what a Democratic president does. I don't want President Biden to do permeant damage with his superpowers, but I'd be happy if he does some little things that make clear the wisdom of the founding fathers creating checks and balances after all.
Republicans have to be made to say, "The president can't do that!" Otherwise, nothing changes.
You know, I'm positively giddy about our chances in November - especially if Harris picks astronaut/hero Kelly of AZ as her running mate. That gets us AZ and NV. Harris herself can win us GA (thinks to black women who won it for Biden). Shapiro and Whitmer can nail down PA ad MI. WI is ours when we show than what Project 2025 does to their pocket books.
All in all we are looking at a win of landslide proportions, especially now that immigration (Biden's executive orders have staunched the flow of illegals) and inflation (The Fed says we are on course for the 2% inflation goal and we should see at least one rate cut before November), are dying out as issues and abortion gets pushed to the front by the best spokesperson for abortions rights possible, VP Harris.
You are seeing this played out across the country. For example, Ohio passed abortion rights and cannabis by 60/40 and a new anti-gerrymandering issue is on the ballot in November. Ohio is no longer a red state.
After such a landslide, we can expect the Dems to completely control both the House and and have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.
Or simply get rid of (or modify) the filibuster, an undemocratic procedure originally used to protect Jim Crow states. Filibuster reforms are normal, and they happen all the time. There are four simple ways to effectively kill the filibuster:
1. Make fewer bills subject to the filibuster: The Senate can create carveouts and exempt certain matters from the filibuster altogether, as it does with bills subject to the reconciliation process.
2. Reduce the power of individual rogue senators: The Senate could make it harder to initiate a filibuster. Right now, unanimous consent is required to hold a vote without invoking the time-consuming cloture process. But the rules could be changed to allow an immediate vote unless a larger bloc of senators — perhaps two or five or 10 — objected to such a vote, instead of just one.
3. Make it easier to break a filibuster: The Senate could reduce the number of votes necessary to invoke cloture. This could be done as an across-the-board reform, like the 1975 change to the filibuster rule that reduced the cloture threshold from 67 to 60. Or it could be done by creating a carveout for certain matters, such as the 2013 and 2017 reforms that allowed presidential nominees to be confirmed by a simple majority vote.
4. Reduce or eliminate the time it takes to invoke cloture: The Senate could reduce the amount of time necessary to invoke cloture and conduct a final vote. This could be done by allowing a swifter vote on a cloture petition, by reducing or eliminating the time devoted to post-closure debate, or both.
The filibuster is neither permanent nor is it constitutional.
https://www.vox.com/22260164/filibuster-senate-fix-reform-joe-manchin-kyrsten-sinema-cloture-mitch-mcconnell
What could we do with that?
Let's start with Congress and by extension, the Electoral College:
(You've seen this before, but its a good time to quote them again)
1. Repeal the 1929 Permanent Apportionment Act. It permanently set the maximum number of members in the House of Representatives at 435. Hence a lot of the distortions in proportional representation, since each state gets at least one representative.
2. Then legalize a Wyoming Rule, where the number of representatives each state gets is proportional to the population of the least populous state (aka Wyoming with 578,803) which gets one representative. California (population 39,237,836) gets 68 representatives, an increase of 16 over its current 52. That increases the total number of representatives to 573.
3. This would take just a majority law, needing no amendments.
4. Then, more ambitiously, also make both the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico states (both have more population than Wyoming). DC would get one representative and Puerto Rico would get 6, further increasing House membership to 580.
A decent contractor can expand the hall of congress to seat the additional reps and provide them office space - or these reps can work remotely based on seniority (which is how they assign office space anyways). Have you seen how cramped the UK House of Commons is?
This would also reduce some (not all) of the obscene distortions to proportional representation in the electoral college. For now a voter in Wyoming has almost 4x the power to elect a president thana voter in California.
This Washington Post article by constitutional scholar Danielle Allen - ‘The House was supposed to grow with population. It didn’t. Let’s fix that’ offers arguments for the same change that are less partisan, more mature and grownup. And those reasons should suffice! The author’s point? Historically this enlargement would actually be consistent with the framers’ original intent! Which was clearly stated in many places.
Not that conservative republicans rally care about originalism - except when it suits them.
All in all these two simple changes would make the U.S. much more of a democracy.
Big winners, urban blue states.
Big losers, rural red states.
That alone makes it worthwhile.
I just scared myself.
I know Trump would never do it voluntarily, but now I'm thinking the probability of a switch to a Vance/Haley ticket immediately after the DNC isn't a sum too numerous to contemplate. And I doubt that states like Ohio would tell them it's too late to change the names on the ballot.
Speaking of Red states, why should a rectangle of land with more tumbleweeds than people be considered a state?
While we are adding a few new Blue States (District of Columbia and Puerto Rico states, both have more population than Wyoming), let's eliminate a few Red ones.
Interest history/math exercise:
The Northwest Ordinances passed in 1787 decreed that a territory with a population of 60,000 could apply for statehood.
US population at the time (1790 census) was 3,929,214.
So when the Northwest Ordinances were passed a territory with approximately 1.5% of the total US population could become a state.
Current American population is 329,500,000.
1.5% of today's population is approximately 5 million.
So if you apply proportional standards, every state with a population less than 5 million would not be considered for statehood.
Getting rid of states of course will never happen (they'd have to vote themselves out of existence).
But we at least can do away with the winner take all aspect of the Electoral College, and have every state follow the examples of Maine and Nebraska where EC votes are tallied up according to proportionally populated sub regions.
That would be fairer and more democratic. Why should a Red Yooper in upper Michigan even bother voting for president when Blue cities like Detroit determine the outcome? Same for Red county farmers in downstate Illinois and Georgia outside of Atlanta.
But to ensure fairness, we would of course have to do away with gerrymandering. As mentioned above, after being held up twice by the AG an anti-gerrymandering amendment is on the ballot here in Ohio in 2024. It will pass as surely as we passed abortion rights and cannabis. As a result, after this election, Ohio will no longer be a Red State.
Let's talk about SCOTUS.
First, let's impeach all of Trump's appointees.
Each one under oath swore that Roe was established law and that they would respect it.
But the first chance they got, they overturned it using the legal reasonings of a 16th century witch finder general.
Lying under oath is an impeachable offense.
So is corrupt acceptance of bribes, so we impeach Clarence Thomas as well (unfortunately being a douchebag is not illegal, otherwise he'd get the chair).
Second, expand SCOTUS to 13 members, one for each of the federal appellate courts with a judge chosen from each appellate court as opening occur. A golden opportunity to pack the court with left wing liberals.
Third, limit the terms of SCOTUS judges to 26 years, which is actually the average tenure of a SC justice (26.1 years to be exact). with a new judge appointed every 2 years. So each president can appoint two new judges, ensuring fresh bl0od is pumped into SCOTUS on a regular basis while ensuring that no one president can completely over haul the court. Term limits may require a constitutional amendment or a simple legal declaration that staying past your 26 years connotes "bad conduct" by which a judge can be removed.
If a justice dies or is removed prior to the end of their 26 year term a replacement can be made with a special appointment provided that this occurs before the halfway (13 year) point in their tenure to finish out the 26 year term. Otherwise the seat remains vacant until the 26 year empty tenure is completed.
Fourth, pass a law of ethical conduct for SCOTUS justices (we can call it the "Clarence Thomas is a Corrupt Douchebag Act") with real teeth and oversight to make sure money is not influencing our sacred legal traditions.
Especially foreign Russian and Saudi oil money that controls the GOP.
P.S.
Certain laws and rights should NOT be protected by a SCOTUS ruling, especially abortion.
This should be protected by national law, with the obvious implication that if the republicans ever come back to power they will overturn this national law protecting abortion rights.
Ergo, the GOP will never control congress again.
A bit of legal/political jiujitsu that.
DP:
Big winners, urban blue states.
Big losers, rural red states.
That alone makes it worthwhile.
That alone (unfortunately) means it won't happen. At least not until the demographics shift more.
DP:
and have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.
Unfortunately, I don't think the math allows it. Remember, only 1/3 of Senate seats are up for election, and many are already held by Democrats. I'm pretty sure that even if the Dems ran the table, the most they could end up with are 55 or maybe 56 Senators.
Larry - then we change the rules of the filibuster and neuter it.
On the good side, should there be another attempt on Trump's life*, successful or not, I don't think Democrats will be the ones under suspicion.
* I wish they'd stop calling it an "assassination attempt." My read is that the shooter was just shooting into the crowd of locals that he was angry at, and a presidential candidate just happened to be there too.
Heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"Sorry, Republicans. You have to carry him [Trump] to term now."
"Sorry, Republicans. You have to carry him [Trump] to term now."
This cartoon shows it even better.
The "Mitch telling Senate candidates to run away from Trump" rumor was from this post from Rick Wilson at the Lincoln Project. https://x.com/TheRickWilson/status/1815346549200708016?t=Ed2s968fB9NL5TG5uzQ1CA&s=19
Not a rigorously-sourced journalist, but a dude with time- proven inside sources and a history of being correct.
Dangerous things:
- a cornered animal
- a downed power line
- a collapsing Reich
Also, Joe Biden has scheduled a major speech for tomorrow night.
That timing means he will give a major address right after Netanyahu gives his joint address to Congress. I doubt that this is a coincidence.
Joe has said that his speech will be to explain why he changed his mind about running for his second term, but it also offers a chance to rebut Netanyahu.
It will also interfere with Netanyahu getting a prominent place in the news cycle.
Counter-programming. Clever.
Any of you seen this? We watched 3 episode. It was very good. Extraordinary Attorney Woo - a 2022 South Korean television series . It follows Woo Young-woo, a female rookie attorney with autism, who is hired by a major law firm in Seoul.
“'Course the Republicans could do their own judo by having Trump drop out and Vance be the nominee.* I'd keep one eye open for that possibility, announced immediately after the DNC. Trump won't do it, though, unless he's "Manchurian Candidate"-ed by his own party.”
I’ve been talking about the Howard Beale scenario for a long time. Trump has done an excellent job preventing it, in his choice of Vance, who would not stand a chance as heir to the nomination and who would be meat for the scrambling vultures, if DT goes down before the election. Many GOPpers would demand the RNC convention delegates be recalled.
AFTER the election is another story. If DT wins – or amid the turmoil of a contested race – Vance might seem ideal to Putin – certainly Thiell – as a puppet replacement. Which is why I bet Trump arranged for a kompromat photo shoot with a donkey. (“If I go down, you go down.”) Likely within the last month. Which means some super sleuth who finds some 5 hour stretch when JDV was incommunicado, maybe in Florida…
Again, I hope JoeB not only offers blackmail amnesty but also puts forward Slow Accountability for presidents while in office.
One very quick filibuster reform would be to rule that Senators have actually stay on the floor speaking, the whole time, as Jimmy Stewart had to do. Today there are ‘courtesy; adjournments and recesses. Presiding officer can simply stop allowing that.
--
After the election I’ll likely renew my call for some rich guy(respected) to buy out a resort hotel with security and vetted staff and say “Electors can have the joint for a week. You can talk to each other – as a ‘college’ - or not - during the period leading to your voting.’
It may be my most radical meddling idea of all.
--
“Then legalize a Wyoming Rule, where the number of representatives each state gets is proportional to the population of the least populous state (aka Wyoming with 578,803) which gets one representative. California (population 39,237,836) gets 68 representatives, an increase of 16 over its current 52. That increases the total number of representatives to 573.”
Absolutely. Repubs will urge immigration to Wyoming. Fine! Let’s also get blacks and whites to swap 100,000 homes & jobs in Miss & Alabama! You rednecks want a paradise state for you? Fine, The other goes ditto for blacks. Shoulda happened in 1867.
“A decent contractor can expand the hall of congress to seat the additional reps and provide them office space”. Should see how cramped things are, in the UK commons.”
And sure… coalesce the states NebraKota and IdaWyaMont!
But above all, elim the power of Gerrymandering and PRIMARIES as the principal elections. CA has done a great job there, turning the general election into a fair runoff in fair districts, and radicalism has gone DOWN.
“after being held up twice by the AG an anti-gerrymandering amendment is on the ballot here in Ohio in 2024.” Proud of you guys.
matthew:
Counter-programming. Clever.
I wish Stormy Daniels would live-stream sorting her underwear again.
Dr Brin:
I’ve been talking about the Howard Beale scenario for a long time.
I said "Manchurian Candidate"-ed instead because that plot wasn't just to shoot the presidential candidate. It was for the VP candidate to heroically jump into the fray and rally the troops on the spot.
Trump has done an excellent job preventing it, in his choice of Vance, who would not stand a chance as heir to the nomination
Do you really think so? My read from the RNC is that the MAGAts are pleased as punch with Vance as the own-the-libs choice. He's Trump without the age and baggage. He's Tucker Carlson without the whiny voice or baggage. I thought that if there wasn't already a Donald Trump Jr, that would be Vance's nickname.
David my suggested subtle tinkering is to get a billionaire to sponsor building a liberal arts university town on the border of Wyoming, Montana and South Dakota
* I wish they'd stop calling it an "assassination attempt." My read is that the shooter was just shooting into the crowd of locals that he was angry at, and a presidential candidate just happened to be there too.p
Larry, I think you're indulging in wish fulfillment. Trump would be dead if he hadn't moved his head. I don't think that shot was an accident.
There's a lot of interesting evidence of multiple shooters. There's a guy on YouTube with video evidence that suggests the bullets traveled in multiple direct paths (which indicates multiple shooters). While it's obvious Kennedy assassination conspiracy theorists would want to spin this first opportunity in a generation to assert it's all a secret coup, at least this guy made a decent case (Google John Cullen Trump Assassination to find it). I don't know enough in this area to refute him.
John Viril:
Larry, I think you're indulging in wish fulfillment.
And I think you might be. I'm no expert, but what I've been hearing is that that's not a bullet wound on Trump's ear, but a cut from flying shrapnel.
That aside, I'm not invested enough to do my own research.
There's a lot of interesting evidence of multiple shooters.
And yet, the Secret Service only killed one guy, and then the shooting was over.
Beginning at minute 27:20 on this video, they successively mention Trump now being the oldest candidate for president ever, using the exact phrasing "Now, let's do some jiu jutsu." and the idea that Trump is confused about the word "asylum", thinking that immigrants are coming here to be our mental hospitals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfySesPdr2k
The "hillbilly" posturing of JD Vance appears to be physically completely false though *culturally* perhaps 30% or so true. In the Marines he was a public relations guy in Iraq. (Butegieg was an intel guy, on the move and under fire.) JDV's bona fides as an intelligent college grad (summa cum laude) and scholarship at Yale Law seem true. Though Yale is Kremlin for the American aristocracy, where bright kids go, to become servants of overlords. And there's a BIG industry of 'tutors' within blocks of campus... but sure, he may be brighter than he seems. Certainly enugh to flatter Thiell.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/jd-vance-middle-class/
I have been working with an excellent AI Whisperer to create a movie pitch for KILN PEOPLE, some really spectacular art!
Oh, oh, get Tom Cruise to play the lead. Pleeeaaseee! :)
"Oh, oh, get Tom Cruise to play the lead. Pleeeaaseee! :)"
I'll tell him next time we have dinner. Thanks!
Re- The shooter
Even if he was just going to do a random shooting I'm sure that he decided that shooting the Orange one was going to make a bigger splash
Duncan,
Kind of the reverse of Billy the Kid's "I'll make you famous!"
If he'd had better snap shooting skills the a-hole with the AR would have gotten his name in all sorts of books, but it sounds like he didn't have enough time. Other folks besides our gracious host have recommended erasing people like that from the records a la Herodotus; "I know his name, but sod off, kid, I'm not writing it down."*
*not the actual Greek
Pappenheimer
The cop who climbed up but ducked away was half coward half hero and probably upset the shot.
I honestly can't blame the cop for ducking back down. Being on a ladder doesn't provide much dodge room. Also, letting others know there is a situation while you're able would be prudent.
A.F. Rey:
Oh, oh, get Tom Cruise to play the lead. Pleeeaaseee! :)
Oh, God no! Cruise was fine in cocky kid parts like Risky Business but he leaves me cold trying to be an action hero.
I don't mentally "cast" any particular actor in my head for Albert, but I do imagine Brent (Data) Spiner as Beta.
Tony Fisk:
I honestly can't blame the cop for ducking back down
But I do blame Republicans for a culture in which the police are routinely outgunned.
This country has dodged two bullets. One was the literal bullet that missed Trump, preserving his life for (I hope) defeat, dishonor, bankruptcy, conviction and long imprisonment. The other was when Biden stepped aside for the good of himself and the Republic. This earns him a seat on Mount Olympus, next to George Washington and Cincinatus, both of whom walked away from power for the good of the nation.
That debate proved that neither candidate should be President. Biden is frail and perhaps senescent; Trump is a liar and perhaps psychotic. Both parties can and do make grave errors; the difference is that the D's can error-correct but the R's can only 'double down', i.e. error-accumulate. That's the difference between enlightened science and feudal ideology.
We are not out of trouble yet. The race remains too tight, though now narrowly in Harris's favor. She is a dynamic campaigner with a powerful narrative: that she's a prosecutor and Trump's a perpetrator. She said, "I know his type."
The autocracy party will try racism, misogyny, and random insults. They will mention Willie Brown's brown willie, but Trump is in no position to criticize others for scandal. They will do so anyhow, because their hypocrisy is not a glitch nor a feature: it is their operating system. They will also deride her laugh, for it annoys them. Trump's laugh annoys me because he doesn't have one, nor a sense of humor. That would require humility.
That [error handling]'s the difference between enlightened science and feudal ideology.
And the reason why economics is not an enlightened science (see earlier mention of the 'Homo Economicus' model). Actually, I think there are now quite a few people trying to enlighten economics. Good luck! They still have to overcome the century or two of the mistrust that arises from wars fought (cold and otherwise).
David Brin wrote:
Any of you seen this? We watched 3 episode. It was very good. Extraordinary Attorney Woo - a 2022 South Korean television series . It follows Woo Young-woo, a female rookie attorney with autism, who is hired by a major law firm in Seoul.
I've seen the entire season and quite enjoyed it. Sadly it wasn't renewed.
The site looks different - and it keeps going back to the start
Don't like it
The only way this makes sense is if they didn't care about the candidate's weaknesses because they thought they had the election in the bag.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul24-1.html
...
Trump and his operation (particularly his sons) did not anticipate how much of a problem Vance's negatives would be. As we wrote yesterday, some Trumpers are rebelling against a man who is married to a non-Christian, non-white woman. In addition, Trump & Co. apparently did not foresee that there would be enormous attention paid to Vance's very numerous and very pointed anti-Trump comments.
...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul24-1.html
You knew it was coming, and now it has. The Trump campaign has filed a complaint with the FEC, demanding that the Commission block Harris from accessing the money in the Biden-Harris war chest. We shall see what happens, but: (1) the campaign account had both Biden and Harris' names on it, and (2) it would be rather hard to argue that the $100 million that has been donated since Biden dropped out was not intended for Harris. In other words, Team Trump has a very uphill battle here, particularly since at least two of the six FEC commissioners, including one of the three Republicans, have already said Harris is entitled to the money.
And that doesn't even take into account that Biden can hand the money over to Kamala Harris and claim it to be an official presidential act.
Heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"Looks like black will be the new orange."
A random thought:
If workers are being replaced more and more by robots and AI in the next ten years, passive incomes strangling living costs as well as starting enterprises, and things like UBI and social security systems seen as the incarnation of evil in the curent political discourse - how will that influence domestic politics? Especially if climate change will force more and more people to migrate, putting additional pressure on western societies.
Will populism - as bad as it is now - have a renaissance that will make seem todays Trumpism seem harmless in comparison?
As the launch of Starship IFT-5 approaches, I notice that assembly of launch tower 2 is rapidly proceeding. (Does anyone in Boca Chica ever sleep?) This means either that they've postponed the booster capture, or that they're confident it will work with no damage to Starbase. We'll know soon.
Does anyone in Boca Chica ever sleep?
Late stage necroliberalism with Union Busting, 80 hour work weeks, at-will contracts, and total disregard for safety protocols coupled with a James-Bond-level of villain as a boss might not allow that.
Larry, those big funding numbers u mention are going to super PACs. Super PACs can spend to promote issues, but cannot coordinate with any campaign. Biden's campaign isn't a pac, and comes under different rules.
There's a great old movie that shows a frantic workforce trying desperately to complete a ship before something big happens. Maybe "When Worlds Collide"? That must be what Boca Chica is like. John Walker, Autodesk cofounder and FORTH wizard, died earlier this year. He was fascinated by ants and ant colonies. I can see why.
"When Worlds Collide" and its sequel was a very old SF book - I think it got turned into a movie, but never saw it.
The book didn't really worry itself with mundane subjects like orbital mechanics.
Pappenheimer
"Late stage necroliberalism with Union Busting, 80 hour work weeks, at-will contracts, and total disregard for safety protocols coupled with a James-Bond-level of villain as a boss might not allow that."
Bah! ASK the folks there. I bet nearly all are vigorously having the time of their lives. 60 hour weeks are what you do when you are pushing ahead quickly on a project with war-level passion and endorphins of success. And the situation YOU describe would be SO easy for resentful workers to sabotage. Instead we are seeing wave after wave of incredibly agile innovation.
There's some merit to your final, James Bond assertion, lately, alas. But did you ever wonder about Blofeld's henchmen? So incredibly competent and dedicated to him? I have the opening scene of a screenplay about that... ;-)
Lesson. Do not fall prey to universalizing spite toward your enemies. Under-estimation is a lobotomizing tendency that spans almost all of history and led to many errors. Many of them tragic.
""When Worlds Collide" and its sequel was a very old SF book - I think it got turned into a movie, but never saw it.
The book didn't really worry itself with mundane subjects like orbital mechanics."
In fact WWC had the best orbital mechanics available at the time. It's terribly impressive for its time.
The movie was a bit schlocky but not so bad, esp for the time. Reversed the love triangle unfortunately. The novel and sequel are truly worth a read.
John Viril:
Biden's campaign isn't a pac, and comes under different rules.
Trump's campaign blatantly coordinates with super PACs, and therefore also comes under different rules.
With that in mind, any bets that Trump tries to drop J.D. Vance from the ticket after the RNC, at the same time he cries foul over Biden leaving the ticket before the DNC?
JD Vance thing is multifaceted. Two Scoops is shocked (apparently) that folks are paying heed to JDV's past disses of Trump. And many other things. Including the Nazi Core's hatred of JDV's ethnic/immigrant wife.
OTOH, reversing and 'betraying' Vance would hurt with others in the base.
Also, if my sci fi thriller plot notions about blackmail have any validity, then JDV can COUNTER blackmail Two Scoops. "Dump me and I'll go public about that, because I'll have nothing left to lose. Kill me and my recorded denunciation gets released."
I won't jinx my choice for DP VP but it should be pretty clear which one i'd love to confront Vance's narrative of being a 'war veteran.'
Dr. Brin,
WWC - published in...1933. Movie made in '51. Got it. Lot of stories out there (by professionals) that science has made obsolete - Heinlein had his rocket pilots using slide rules. I agree it was a compelling story.
Pappenheimer
I think the movie I was thinking of was "The Time Travelers" (1964). Cheesy and adolescent, but fun. There was a countdown calendar at the entrance to the rocket project that said, "Work! Work! Only 59 days left" or similar. That's what reminded me of Boca Chica.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/opinion/jd-vance-kamala-harris.html
...
Affirmative action of a kind is built into our political system. The drafters of the Constitution did not have the term “diversity, equity and inclusion” at hand, but how else do you describe a system that gives two senators and at least three Electoral College votes to a state that based on population qualifies for only one member of the House of Representatives? Our Constitution does not lecture Wyoming, Alaska, the Dakotas, Vermont and Delaware to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and do a better job of competing for residents with states like California and New York in order to earn their disproportionate representation.
...
scidate I think you correctly remember When World's Collide. The book's much better, esp for 1933! But the flick is worth the time.
LH Red America sponges net tax dollars from Blue... and never once have I heard a blue pol have the guts to say so.
I see the picking of the running mate as a test of competence for the Dems and team Harris in a couple ways. First, how airtight is their process? Can they keep info from leaking before they are ready to announce? Being able to keep a lid on things is a sign of a well run organization. There is no hurry to pick immediately, and there's a lot to be said for this decision being so prominent in the news. It's the good kind of buzz, so drag it out for a while. You know it will annoy Donny.
Second is the actual pick and why. As much as I hate, hate, HATE the Electoral College, it is a fact of American political life, and the politically wise must consider it. The VP candidate you want will shore up a swing state (or even flip a new state) and should have a solid CV. Bonus if that complements the CV of the Presidential candidate. I think Kelly or Shapiro are the best options, because of the odds of delivering a crucial swing state and because they both have great CVs. Picking either one could leave a vacancy in an important Dem held office, but beating Donny2Scoops is worth that risk. Walz is has a lot of those upsides too, but he seems less well known. Whitmer could have had upside, but she declined, so that's settled. All the other names don't appear to have the same amount of upsides to me. Beshear is term-limited, and it's said that he would appeal to the Appalachian / Rust Belt folk who find Vance to be a big phony. I like him but I can't see what states he'd help flip or hold; I don't think any anti-Vance sentiment is broad enough (but I could be wrong). I think Pete Buttigieg is so impressively smart and such an effective communicator, but again what states does he shore up or flip? Also, and it galls me so much to say it, I'm not convinced enough voters would be ready for a woman of color/gay man ticket. It ought not to matter, but I can't deny how things are. I think Pritzker would be a wasted pick, as he's not going to expand the EC map, as would Newsome even if there wasn't that Constitutional issue with having both people from the same state.
I was facetiming with grad school friends a few days ago, and we were discussing past, present, and near future VP picks. Several of my friends were considering McCain at least a little back in 2008, but then his campaign made one of the worst running mate picks in history, and it was nope, nope, nope. Our consensus for the pick to be is Kelley or Shapiro. We'll see, but hopefully not prematurely.
I watched Joe's speech. He sounded a bit tired, as if he's not completely over the Covid, which added some poignancy IMO. The message was still spot on. I hope his choice to step aside will end up being regarded in the same way as Washington saying 2 terms are enough. I hope he will get the credit he's being denied right now by fickle Americans.
I heard an interesting interview last night with the author of The Twilight of Democracy (I haven't read it, but I've heard of it, as it was a best-seller). They were discussing her new book, Autocracy, Inc. She sees today's dictators as more fluid than those in the past.
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/24/nx-s1-5050572/autocracy-inc-review-anne-applebaum
Paul SB
Flypusher, picking a Senator has flaws... lack of admin experience, but Kamala has been asst prez for 3+ years. And losing a DP senator isn't so bacd, if a DP governor can appoint the replacement, as in Az.
Big picture. ONCE in 80 years has a GOP prez candidate chosen a VP nominee who was qualified to be president. That one was hugely qualified - on paper - and went on to become by far the worst president of the 20th Century. Dem candidates ALWAYS choose someone qualified... but a bit boring. (Look at the lists!) Kamala please choose a dynamic fellow.
it should be pretty clear which one i'd love to confront Vance's narrative of being a 'war veteran.'
I would be amused to see Vance confronted by someone in a gorilla suit.
Again. Play John Fogerty's song Vantz Can't Dance.
Bah! ASK the folks there. I bet nearly all are vigorously having the time of their lives. 60 hour weeks are what you do when you are pushing ahead quickly on a project with war-level passion and endorphins of success.
Strangely, I believe that. Working in those environments can be a hell of a drug.
Go, ASK them. When they start the job. Then after half a year. One year. After two years.
Ask them how they sleep. Ask them If they have maintained the same level of enthusiasm they had when they started. Ask them if they fear displeasing Elon, and If they fear it more than losing friends, loved ones, or human lifes after mistakes have been made.
Ask them about sleep patterns, weight changes, chemical performance enhancers, emptiness, suicidal thoughts, especially after leaving.
And the situation YOU describe would be SO easy for resentful workers to sabotage. Instead we are seeing wave after wave of incredibly agile innovation.
True. Elon has surely countless of possible, voluntary recruits to send into the fire, like a Russian general. Wouldnt it be good if they still were usable after Musk has thrown away like broken toys?
Do not fall prey to universalizing spite toward your enemies. Under-estimation is a lobotomizing tendency that spans almost all of history and led to many errors. Many of them tragic.
I concur.
I do not underestimate billionaires with a messiah complex, a large army of agitated sycophants, their own intelligence apparatus, and inhumane and even hateful political ambitions and views.
I fear them.
Der Oger
I would not want to do that NOW - but I'm 68
In my 20's and 30's I would have jumped at the chance
And guess what - the people who DID have all massively profited by the experience! - not just the direct financial bit but having a "Musk Company" on your CV would give you entry to jobs well ahead of your peers!
Overachieving and working hard for a few years are a CHOICE! - do you think anybody smart enough to be employed at that level by Musk would not KNOW that!
Just because you don't like it does NOT give you the right to dictate to other people their life choices
Additionally people employed by almost all of Musk's companies can look directly at what they are doing and see how it benefits all humanity
The one exception is Twitter - which IMHO is the equivalent of me taking my electric car drag racing - but on a hugely greater scale
D. C., Musk is mortal, the question is not whether he stops, but how? Recreational pharmaceuticals have form for premature mortality. I would rather he learn moderation, and serve the World longer, but it doesn't seem likely to happen.
Flypusher:
Whitmer could have had upside, but she declined, so that's settled.
I agree with every Democrat or left-of-center pundit I've heard on this that a two-woman ticket probably couldn't win.
But something I've not heard elsewhere--and this goes back to previous elections as well--is that as good as some of the current governors and Senators are, we also need them as governors and Senators. One of the reasons I was glad Bernie didn't win the presidential nomination was that he did more good in the Senate that he could have as president.
Flypusher:
I'm not convinced enough voters would be ready for a woman of color/gay man ticket. It ought not to matter, but I can't deny how things are.
Just what I said above about a two-woman ticket (before I read ahead). In good time, after we rout the Nazis.
I think Pritzker would be a wasted pick, as he's not going to expand the EC map,
My state's governor knows this, which is why he wasn't expecting to be chosen this time around. He's also not so well recognized nationally. Also, as I said above, right now we need him more as governor. He handled COVID here in Illinois as well as President Biden did, and I thank God we had voted out our previous Republican governor* in 2018.
* Illinois may be a firmly blue state in recent presidential elections, but the governorship routinely switches parties. Fortunately, our former governor Bruce Rauner, for all of his faults with union-busting, was not a Trumpist, and refrained as much as possible from mentioning the former guy's name, even during his presidency.
Duncan,
You are not wrong. If adult conforming people with a high-end income give themselves freely to such a workplace environment - who I am to judge? Maybe it is a workers' paradise full of happy people who don't mind other people loosing limbs and lifes. Maybe turning the clock back to the age of robber barons, burning a century of Union achievements and workplace security laws on Elons altar of grandiosity is just a sacrifice that has to be made for the betterment of mankind.
Wernher von Braun would certainly approve.
And ... He certainly is a role model for managers who employ less fortunate workers. Like, children dying in chicken deboning machines.
Only Advance!
duncan cairncross:
And guess what - the people who DID have all massively profited by the experience! - not just the direct financial bit but having a "Musk Company" on your CV would give you entry to jobs well ahead of your peers!
I can speak to that, indirectly. When my former employer outsourced my department to the company that used to be Andersen Consulting, I became an employee of theirs for several years, even though my job was essentially "Do your old job but with fewer colleagues and more time pressure." Just having that name on my resume was a plus in acquiring later jobs.
@David:
My wife, too young to recall any of the pain, rolls her eyes when I say “Any random WEEK of 1968 was more tense and fraught than this entire ‘crisis year’!”
You keep saying that, and I believe you. That doesn't reassure me as it seems to reassure you; it reminds me how much worse this can get. There are many features of the current year that exist because our whole society is still bruised from '68.
... but they CHANGED THE LABELS! Ah, but they changed to compatible labels. Commies were 'godless', but neofaszist Russia uses (tame, leashed) Christian shamans and has 'helpfully' supported the memes our own theofaszists use. And they're willing to use the label-system of crony capitalism now, which makes collusion so much easier. Despite similarities, 'Red' China still gets the Two Minutes Hate -- not because they're a threat economically, diplomatically, or militarily, but because they're --memetically-- incompatible.
...the US Founders seized and redistributed 1/3 of the land and banned primogeniture... Not well taught in US history is that the 1763 Proclamation reserving trans-Appalachia from settlement was at least as important a grievance in uniting the Colonies as any other. The Declaration doesn't mention that (because many in Congress were large landholders), but the hope of westward settlement had been a release valve for socioeconomic tension for a century -- tension over land distribution! If the frontier remained closed, the plantation lords would become more powerful than ever while the yeomanry became squeezed (immiserated?) on ever smaller/less productive land.
As for primogeniture, reports recently surfaced that Murdoch is trying to cut his other three children out of control of their inheritance in favor of his (politically aligned) eldest son... who is the second child overall. Male-preference primogeniture.
Let’s also get blacks and whites to swap 100,000 homes & jobs in Miss & Alabama! You rednecks want a paradise state for you? Fine, The other goes ditto for blacks. Shoulda happened in 1867. 1867 was about the only time it could have happened; I ought to know. Despite the view from afar, MS and AL are very different places. Case in point: MS may have had the "Free State of Jones", but AL Unionists managed to put together entire units in blue wool to fight their treasonous neighbors.
" The novel and sequel are truly worth a read." There's a sequel? Knowing only the movie, I certainly didn't expect that!
"...if my sci fi thriller plot notions about blackmail have any validity..." If Vance is under blackmail, it's more likely to be from his broligarch mentors than the Russians.
@LH: "...as good as some of the current governors and Senators are, we also need them as governors and Senators." The Harris vetting team seems to agree, as a recent scoop indicates that people not in elective office are also in the mix.
Catfish. Always cool to have you come by:
>>" The novel and sequel are truly worth a read." There's a sequel? Knowing only the movie, I certainly didn't expect that!
AFTER WOrlds Collide. funky in some ways and maybe a bit racist... but good SF for 1933
>>"...if my sci fi thriller plot notions about blackmail have any validity..." If Vance is under blackmail, it's more likely to be from his broligarch mentors than the Russians.
Agreed. Principally Thiel. and likely NOT the Kremlin. But if Trump had any sense (???) he'd insist on a camera shoot to get some of his own.
>>@LH: "...as good as some of the current governors and Senators are, we also need them as governors and Senators." The Harris vetting team seems to agree, as a recent scoop indicates that people not in elective office are also in the mix.
A dem Senator - eg Kelly - can be replaced by almost any reliable AZ Democrat person of stature, due to the Dem governor.
Heading off to Comic-con!
@David: funky in some ways and maybe a bit racist... but good SF for 1933
It's hard to find 1933 SF that isn't racist, good or otherwise. Good on Jemisin for calling out Lovecraft hard on that issue in her _Cities_ duology.
A dem Senator - eg Kelly - can be replaced by almost any reliable AZ Democrat person of stature, due to the Dem governor.
In a purple state, it's a better shot at holding the seat in a later election (Kelly's seat is up in '26) than a Southern governor would be. Some purple state Republican legislators will attempt to throw sand in the gears, but in Arizona, that's less likely to succeed as the state GOP has already expended their sand reserves foolishly. Arizona's current law dictates that the governor not only gets to pick, but that the replacement *must* be of the same party. Not a lot of wiggle room there.
Mind you, Kelly is my top pick as well... but even with the extremely tight timeline, ya gotta do your homework, lest you get stuck with Diet Mt. Dew.
@Alfred:As for lack of oppo research on her, y'all are engaging in wishful thinking. There's oppo research, but it seems no one bothered converting that into production-ready messaging. They're flailing, and in flailing, falling back on familiar (and cliched, and expected, and predictable) tropes. Like Willie Brown and "sleeping your way to the top". As one news aggregator put it, "The California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board is the top?"
@DP: We're not getting a filibuster-proof majority, but we don't actually need one. What we need is a filibuster-buster majority: 51 votes for getting rid of the minority's ability to defend unconstitutional injustices. Some combination of "constitutional checks and balances cannot be filibustered" and "filibusters must be conducted in person, on the floor, in front of God and C-SPAN2" would be sufficient. Reducing cloture time is not a shabby idea. I doubt the others are yet feasible; the machinations of SCOTUS, made possible by Yurtle's strategic manipulation of the filibuster for two decades, are what make even this much reform possible. The Senate is designed to be slow to change.
The 435-seat limit in the House is artificial, but simply deleting the 1929 Act isn't good enough. That was passed because Republicans broke the previous system of decadal Apportionment bills; they simply prevented the 1920 reapportionment to take place, thus blatantly holding on to unearned power in the House. The automatic system of the 1929 Act put an end to those shenanigans, and we would NEED something like the Wyoming Rule to replace the cap. I'm not sure we'd actually need extensive remodeling of the chamber, but we might well need yet another House Office Building.
Electoral College reform depends on the Compact, which is a slow grind -- but I expect it to happen. Ironically that means fixing gerrymandering comes *first*, as state-level gerrymanders are what maintain enough purple-state Republican legislatures to block the Compact. Which means fixing SCOTUS so that gerrymandering fixes will stick. A lot of dominoes that will need to be set up and knocked over, but they will synergize over time.
Hi Der Oger
I don't like anti-union people
BUT of all of the ways that they have of repressing union activity the one chosen by Musk
- which is pay and treat your people well enough to not WANT a union
Is the best
In a well run company the Union becomes the body that organizes the annual trip to Blackpool!
Which is fine as long as management continues to be sensible - unfortunately most management isn't
British Unions are/were different from American Unions - I suspect that German Unions are actually different again
The point of unions is to ensure companies treat their employees well. If Musk *is* doing that, mission accomplished.
I did half an MBA course (diploma) many years ago.* One point made was that the average union was much more professionally run than the average company (in Australia, at least)
... mind you, the course was run in conjunction with a union.
* the course material (from Deakin University) struck me as pretty solid: certainly more so than the connotations 'MBA' usually inspires.
Catfish: “I'm not sure we'd actually need extensive remodeling of the chamber, but we might well need yet another House Office Building.”
Freshman can double up, as in college! But the fury this will unleash in the confederacy will demand more security.
Some of the defenses of gerrymandering involve “what other system would be completely un arbitrary? And make allowances for state sovereignty?" Here is my proposed legal argument that demolishes the “Roberts Doctrine” that he concocted to protect gerrymandering. https://david-brin.medium.com/the-minimal-overlap-solution-to-gerrymandered-injustice-e535bbcdd6c
But the key point too few make about it is that it has led to RADICALIZATION of partisanship in every gerried state. In CA the dem pols feared losing gerrymandering and voters (mostly democrats) over-ruled them… and the DP majority went UP! But radicalism went way down.
If /when the Wyoming rule is ever instituted, one (snarky) answer to the outrage? Rich Republicans subsidize folks moving to Wyoming! Get 100,000 to move… and you’ll snatch five seats from dems in other states!
British Unions are/were different from American Unions - I suspect that German Unions are actually different again
Main difference: Works Councils. Elected workers who have a say in who is hired and fired and certain other, work-environment related fields. As opposed to unions, they may not call for strikes but are free to negotiate almost everything with the employer. If both of them disagree, things are settled in the courts .
In larger corporations (like the beloved Deutsche Bank) with an oversight board they gain 1/2 of the seats.
Technically, there are no obligations for workers to Form a council, but If they do, the employer must tolerate it or face criminal prosecution, at least in theory.
Works Councils come in different shades, they can be strong or weak, enployer- or worker-oriented, progressive or conservative, lawful or corrupt. It all depends on the people sitting on it and on the managements willingness to share control.
Unions vary in strength and effectiveness. The strongest is that of the train drivers, who can and have caused a lot of discomfort during the last years. The weakest are those of the police and other state servants who may not go on strike.
In addition, union membership grants you access to training Programms (EG for works councils) and free lawyers for work- related trials.
Ironically, unions themselves have the reputation of being bad employers.
Stonekettle on Threads:
So ... now the narrative is that childless women aren't citizens? They shouldn't get to vote, shouldn't hold office, basically Republicans are saying they're bad people, right?
This isn't a thing any conservative cared about until three days ago. Hasn't been any part of this election cycle. But now, they can't run on their record, unless it's a criminal record. They can't attack Harris for HER record. So, now it's this. This is what they've got. This ridiculous nonsense.
Dr Brin, please cover your eyes for a moment.
Y'know who else considered childless women to not be citizens? The matriarchal government of the Cirinists in Dave Sim's Cerebus comic, specifically the 50-issue arc called "Mothers and Daughters".
In the Cirinist government of Upper Felda which eventually conquered everything (for a while), only mothers had positions of authority. The franchise was "one live birth--one vote."
So now, Republicans are the Cirinist party.
Ok, you can open your eyes again
Duncan,
Just a thought:
"BUT of all of the ways that they have of repressing union activity the one chosen by Musk
- which is pay and treat your people well enough to not WANT a union
Is the best"
Isn't this a little bit like having a king? The best kings treated their people well so they wouldn't want to revolt, but eventually that one died and a spoiled brat born with a silver spoon takes his place. A union is more like having an elected body that has some power to overrule the king. Good kings tend to lure people into a false sense of security with dictators.
Paul SB
Kevin Roberts, architect of Project 2025, has close ties to radical Catholic group Opus Dei | US news
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/26/kevin-roberts-project-2025-opus-dei
I'm seriously reconsidering atheism. I witnessed three miracles in one day yesterday.
First, driving from Chicago to Champaign Illinois yesterday in order to move my daughter back home. We usually lose the not-so-high-powered progressive talk station (WCPT) less than halfway through the 150 mile drive. Yesterday, we were still listening to Stephanie Miller as we drove into Champaign. It's like the story of Chanukah all over again.
Second, on that very show, it was pointed out that if (when) Kamala Harris is inaugurated as the first black female president, she will be sworn in by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Jan 20 which (this next year) will be on Martin Luther King Day.
Finally, my daughter's fridge was mostly cleaned out before we got there, and she thought the freezer was empty. But just as I was sweating like a pig from moving stuff, there was magically a whole box of popsicles in her freezer after all. Just what I needed.
I usually put quote marks around this because I'm channeling a fictional character written by Kurt Vonnegut, but no quotes today. How much longer can I go on being an atheist?
A song dedicated to JDV:
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1816564886001836387
Kevin Roberts, architect of Project 2025, has close ties to radical Catholic group Opus Dei
Since Leonard Leo is also an Opus Dei affiliate, I couldn't tell how much of the similarities in material were due to association vs. direct ties. But good to know. I do wonder how many of the ultra-Protestant members of the (un)holy "pro-life" coalition are aware of just how militantly Catholic their allies of convenience are?
@Lena: A union is more like having an elected body that has some power to overrule the king. Supposedly that's what boards of directors and shareholder meetings do, but in practice, those are usually under control of either the quasi-monarch or quasi-oligarchs (who may be 'native' to the corporation or 'foreign' investors).
This comparison does evoke suggestive imagery, though. If the CEO is analogous to a king, then the BOD is like a privy council; the rest of the C-suite operates as a cabinet; and the shareholders are akin to a House of Lords. The union, in this scenario, would be cognate to the House of Commons.
It's not a perfect analogy, because there may be more than one union per corporation, and obviously there's more than one corporation per union. I do think this is a good seed for further brainstorming though. I've consistently said for a long time that I'm not sure the trade-union model is the optimum for labor representation-- I support it wholeheartily as better than present alternatives, but I'm not going to stop looking for something even better.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul25-6.html
Vance is strongly opposed to abortion, and has suggested it is wrong even in cases of rape and incest: "It's not whether a woman should be forced to bring a child to term, it's whether a child should be allowed to live, even though the circumstances of that child's birth are somehow inconvenient or a problem to the society." He has compared abortion to slavery.
As opposed to forced service as a living incubator, which (I guess) isn't like slavery at all.
Shakeups in the Secret Service. This event certainly applies to Secret Service competence and may have salutary effects, girding them to greater diligence. But given the nature of the loony gunman, I doubt it applies to my reasons why I fear for Donald Trump.
The less-insane and non-putinist half of the oligarchy might prefer to be rid of what had been their best tool for dismantling the American Enlightenment, now that he's threatening to go full 1934 brownshirt and might make the last scene of CABARET come true. ("Do you still think you can control them?") The less-imbecilic oligarchs might know about the Night of the Long Knives.
Indeed, Trump's choice of JD Vance, while making no sense electorally, does fit my theory that DT is being self-protective. "No one will get rid of me, if the replacement would be THAT!" Though I bet DT still arranged to get loyalty insurance kompromat. ("I'll choose you as veep, but only after you do a photo shoot with a donkey!")
Here I think DT made a mistake. Only Peter Thiel would rejoice over Vance moving to the top of the GOP ticket and the rest of the party would simply shrug off any such possibility. If Two Scoops weren't around anymore, McConnell etc would reconvene the RNC to pick someone else. And I'd wager $$ that they'd coalesce upon Paul Ryan, long the prince-in-waiting of the Bush Wing of the Party. Likely with Manchin as VP pick.
In fact, even AFTER the election, if Trump vanished after the GOP ticket wins, but before the electors vote, even then, the electors would probably get orders from the Establishment to bypass Vance. So, it's only after that, when Thiel would get his dream puppet.
Fascist unity is an illusion. They're only unified when their pick wears the crown. And there's always other contender/faction.
Dr Brin:
might make the last scene of CABARET come true. ("Do you still think you can control them?") T
I'm the one who pointed that song out to you, and I appreciate you running with it. But it's hardly the "last scene". That belongs to the "...when I die, I'm going like Elsie..." refrain of the title song.
Start by admitting from cradle to tomb
It isn't that long a stay.
Life is a cabaret, old chum.
It's only a cabaret, old chum.
And I love...a cab...a...ret!
(From memory)
In fact, even AFTER the election, if Trump vanished after the GOP ticket wins, but before the electors vote, even then, the electors would probably get orders from the Establishment to bypass Vance. So, it's only after that, when Thiel would get his dream puppet.
If that happened, it will be other oligarchs - like Koch - who will call the shots within the GOP.
Or maybe they are already preparing/ waging a shadow war against each other? Old fossile money vs Techbroligarchs?
Sometimes, only sometimes, I think they CCP wasn't totally wrong in cracking down on their billionaire caste.
Fascist unity is an illusion. They're only unified when their pick wears the crown. And there's always other contender/faction.
This is how Hitler organized Germany, and this is how Putin organizes Russia. Divide and conquer, and let Dear Leader be the final arbiter.
Best comment ever about JDV:
"Vance looks like a racist Care Bear."
Der Oger,
Sometimes, only sometimes, I think they CCP wasn't totally wrong in cracking down on their billionaire caste.
The King is dead.
Long live the King.
China is an OLD civilization with corruption issues that make the longest lived European dynasties look like annuals in a flowerbed.
Collusion by any group to bias governance rules in their favor must be balanced by other competing groups. Failure to do that means the rest of us have to shoot them all.
China does that periodically. Cyclically, but without the notion that history is predictable in detail. I hope they find their way to a soft landing someday because famines need to go the way of the dodo.
@LH:As opposed to forced service as a living incubator, which (I guess) isn't like slavery at all. Actually, a legal friend-of-a-friend intends to try just that argument. The fetus might be declared a person by these schmucks, but they're not a citizen until they emerge from the mother. The 14A is very clear on that: "All persons born or naturalized..." As such, the mother is being placed into servitude to a non-citizen without conviction or crime or due process of law. Thus, under the 13A, forced birth is not legal.
Of course this cockamamie is only even vaguely rational if fetal personhood is conceded, and so only useful to confound the Opus Dei-influenced and their Protestant counterparts.
Following Hanlon's Razor, my assumption is that Orangina selected Mt. Dew as a transaction: broligarch veep for broligarch cash. Broligarchs, however, are no more interested in paying up on a bad bet than Orangina. (cf. the Afrikaaner brownshirt loudly proclaiming $45M/mo donations and then reneging a week later) Do also note that Mt. Dew's entire shtick is aimed at coastals like the Orange Family who don't know moonshine from malachite, and they've already driven away anyone who could have told them that. Mt. Dew is so clearly a disastrous choice -- even the Alaskan lady looks better in contrast -- that the only questions in my mind are:
* Who backstabs first?
* Stab before the choice is irrevocable, or after ballots are locked in, or after the election?
In the ordinary course of matters, the advisors responsible would be sacked. However, the advisors responsible are genetic scions of the Orange Family and thus very hard to eject even were it desired. The only recourse is to sack those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked.
Fortunately, the opposing campaign has been completed in an entirely different style at great expense and at the last minute.
I usually put quote marks around this because I'm channeling a fictional character written by Kurt Vonnegut, but no quotes today. How much longer can I go on being an atheist?
Larry, would your newfound faith withstand an election loss by Kamala?
P.S. I'm not predicting a loss. I'm not sure what will happen. I do think Kamala will kill a lot of hope that Trump can make big inroads on the black vote.
BUT...will she carry 92% like Biden did in 2020?
Der Oger,
I held back a few days before responding to the fears you expressed. I likely would have added fuel to the fire, but I think I can avoid that today.
…workers are being replaced more and more by robots and AI…
My wife went through a drive-thru at the local chicken sandwich fast food place down the road from us and was greeted by an AI taking her order. Surprised her quite a bit. It's not a high end franchise and we expected AI's to show up pretty much everywhere else first.
In a nutshell, her ordering experience was VASTLY improved over a human doing it. The AI had no issues understanding her and put her order on the screen where she could confirm it. Odds are now higher that she will return when my son wants another chicken sandwich.
Behind the AI, though, there were humans who could intervene. Because my wife is more likely to return, THEIR jobs are likely more secure. So is someone out of a job? Probably not. Most franchises with human order takers have someone inside wearing the headset. That person is usually doing other tasks at the same time and THOSE tasks likely still require a human. What the AI does isn't replacement. It is best seen as augmentation. The AI agent intercepts the easy orders so the person wearing the headset stays on the other tasks as much as possible.
Think of these augmentations as the horsey-end of a centaur. The person wearing the headset inside is extended by a tireless, updatable back-end that can carry heavier loads.
In this fast food example, the most likely impact is that franchises will deliver more consistent service with the resources they have already hired. Night shifts might lose people if two workers prove to be able to handle what used to require three, but that's a trend that predates AI's.
…UBI and social security systems seen as the incarnation of evil in the current political discourse…
Give it time. Children grow up and often look back at the choices their parents and grandparents made and wonder at the stupidity on display. That trend will likely continue.
Late stage necroliberalism with Union Busting, 80 hour work weeks, at-will contracts, and total disregard for safety protocols coupled with a James-Bond-level of villain as a boss might not allow that.
Ha! Don't hold back. Let us know what you think of him. Unfortunately, though, this shows you likely have never worked for a start-up company… let alone one causing HUGE market disruptions.
He's no James Bond villain. He's way too much of an idealist. Progressives haven't cornered the market on idealism, though, so that gets tempers flaring.
Be aware that the Boca Chica facility shifted to three works shifts a day many years ago. I spent some time looking at the talent they were trying to hire. Basically what happened is Musk realized that the work pace he needed to get HIM to Mars before he is in his grave was unrealistic for one or two work shifts a day. So… he hired more. He has the $$ to do it, so why not?
Long work weeks aren't unusual among the young who want the money. I see it around me all the time and I'm in a much steadier environment involving government work. When I first entered the labor market I met guys who were fine with doing the occasional 100 hour work week, but we all understood they got sloppy due to lack of sleep. Still… if the company has a critical deadline and is willing to pay enough, there were people who would jump at the chance to take the money. That hasn't changed.
…Union Busting…
Yah. Well… It's his company. He considers it a violation of his property when people try to dictate how he may use it. Old school liberals and libertarians get quite annoyed when others try to dictate the uses property they do not own.
That doesn't mean he thinks he owns the employees. Far from it. They are free to work his company… or not.
Re: Centaurs
Just yesterday, I was using this metaphor to (successfully) argue that a human brain and decent pocket computer (total 25W of power) could give a sprawling supercomputer (small village of power) a run for its money. Thanks to Kasparov and Differ for this handy analogy. I have trouble with long, intricate explanations, especially in live conversation.
John Viril:
Larry, would your newfound faith withstand an election loss by Kamala?
"Newfound faith" is way too much. "Newfound openness to possibilities" is more accurate.
Kamala ensures that Black women will make life hell for any males in their lives who even think of Trump. Great.
But I am still deeply worried about Hispanic men, who seem drawn to the MAGA macho. There are judo narratives. But dems don’t do no judo.
If you watch the video, Trump slaps his ear, as if reacting to a bug sting. Now 90% that's a believable reaction to what we now see was a VERY minor wound. But consider that the visual evidence would also support him slapping to MAKE the wound + some blood. Okaymake that 1%... heck 0.1%. It's still not excluded by what we see. And it would make this a case of 'aimed to miss.'
Dr Brin:
But I am still deeply worried about Hispanic men, who seem drawn to the MAGA macho.
That problem solves itself after Trump deports all of them.
I know, I snark. I take my wins where I can get them.
If you watch the video, Trump slaps his ear, as if reacting to a bug sting. Now 90% that's a believable reaction to what we now see was a VERY minor wound. But consider that the visual evidence would also support him slapping to MAKE the wound + some blood. Okaymake that 1%... heck 0.1%. It's still not excluded by what we see. And it would make this a case of 'aimed to miss.'
I don't think aimed to miss is really reasonable, PRESUMING Trump was hit by a bullet. Remember that gusts of wind can affect bullet trajectories...so a bullet "aimed" to graze his ear has way too high a chance of killing him.
The only reasonable aimed to miss scenario is Trump wounded by shrapnel.
JV: "I don't think aimed to miss is really reasonable, PRESUMING Trump was hit by a bullet. Remember that gusts of wind can affect bullet trajectories...so a bullet "aimed" to graze his ear has way too high a chance of killing him."
You miss my point. I mean aimed to miss by several feet! Allowing him to slap-wound his own ear at the sound of gunshot.
Heck if so, it would likely have been PRE cut and glued shut so that a simple slap would suffice. Watch the footage and see exactly that slap. Again, 90%+ likely he slapped as a reflex at a 'bug bite' pain. But the video is also consistent with 'slap open the glued wound when I hear a bang.'
I am NOT asserting this. I am simply pointing out a consistent alternative.
John Viril redux:
Larry, would your newfound faith withstand an election loss by Kamala?
I want to expand on this a bit more. My atheism isn't about the Judeo-Christian God or any particular entity that I don't believe in. I don't believe there is any evidence for the existence of the supernatural at all*. I don't believe in pixies, sprites, fairies, demons, or genies either. Tinkerbell would not survive if my belief in fairies was a necessary condition.
In the novel Hocus Pocus, Kurt Vonnegut's fictional narrator inserts, "How much longer can I go on being an atheist?" after every mention of a coincidence or of some metaphorical coin flip going his way. He's cynically making fun of people associating anything at all unusual with the supernatural. That's normally how I use the phrase as well.
Yesterday's three miracles has me considering whether they could count as evidence of the supernatural. Calling that "newfound faith" is taking it way too far.
Of the three, the MLK day thing was by far the weakest. The odds of inauguration day falling on MLK day--or rather, of MLK day falling on Jan 20--are exactly the same as the odds of Homer Simpson getting sick on a Saturday. And despite Homer's guess of "Must be a million to one," I don't think I have to point out what those odds are. Not favorable, but hardly a thermodynamic miracle**.
The popsicles, though--something appearing out of seeming-nowhere just when I needed it--is a little easier to ascribe to some external force. It's like a Warner Brothers cartoon in which Bugs Bunny or whoever reaches off screen and pulls back the object he just happens to need. Things like that don't happen in reality, except they occasionally do. I once stood in my wife-to-be's flooding basement and opined, "If only you had a standpipe," at which time I noticed there was one amidst all of the basement junk.
continued...
Continuing my rant on miracles...
Still, what really caused me to reconsider was the fact that WCPT radio didn't fade out as we drove 150 miles south. See, two of the guests were to be the black female comedy duo "Frangela" (Francis Callier and Angela V. Shelton), who usually appear on Fridays but for scheduling reasons were on yesterday instead. They're big Kamala fans, and as this was their first visit since Sunday's announcement, I really wanted to hear their take. But I know they usually come on in the last hour of the show, and we usually lose the station driving south way too soon.
So with that for context, my wife and I stop to switch drivers about halfway there at Kankakee, and we're still hearing the station. We get to Buckley, only 40 miles from our destination, and I'm actually thinking about the mythology of Chanukah--how oil that was only sufficient for one day miraculously lasted for eight days. And I actually thought to myself, "If we're still hearing this in Champaign, I might have to re-think my atheism." Well, not only did I get to hear the whole Frangela segment, but we finished up listening to it while filling up with gas in Champaign.
Dave Sim (sorry) advocates that if you actually have the nerve to ask for a sign, and you then in fact receive it, you probably shouldn't dismiss that.
* Outside of fiction, in which you can't swing a dead cat without hitting such evidence all the time.
** Watchmen's Dr Manhattan calls the odds against any individual human existing so enormous as to make any of us thermodynamic miracles. That's certainly true in my daughter's case. One of my grandmothers survived a Russian prison camp in WWI. My mom graduated high school a semester early just because the school needed to make room, and thus overlapped college with my dad only one semester. My wife randomly moved to Chicago from Texas for work after college, and we overlapped at a job for only eight months. The odds against my daughter ever coming into being would make even the most reckless gambler cringe, and yet there she is.
John Viril:
The only reasonable aimed to miss scenario is Trump wounded by shrapnel.
I think he aimed to kill, but I'm not convinced he cared who he killed.
Missing was because (from all I've read) the guy was a lousy shot who tried out for the marksmanship team and failed.
Trump has some chutzpah saying he "took a bullet" for others when someone else literally died and he just got a Trap-Neuter-Release clip on his ear.
Heck if so, it would likely have been PRE cut and glued shut so that a simple slap would suffice. Watch the footage and see exactly that slap. Again, 90%+ likely he slapped as a reflex at a 'bug bite' pain. But the video is also consistent with 'slap open the glued wound when I hear a bang.'
I am NOT asserting this. I am simply pointing out a consistent alternative.
David, OIC.
Possible, but not likely. Of course, surviving an assassination attempt has huge benefits for Trump's machismo branding. Heck, lots of right wing religious types are talking about a mandate from God.
I must confess, I thought Trump bringing WWE marketing tactics into politics was pretty gross. Though, I'm not at all fond of pro wrestling b/c the storylines are just too lowbrow for me...PLUS, a lot of the techniques simply wouldn't work. It's not even good fake fighting and I have problems with suspension of disbelief to be entertained.
While I consider pro wrestling lowbrow, there are quite a few intelligent people who find it funny and a way to "turn off their brain" for awhile or as a parody of various combat sports.
Of course, when I was young, a lot of pro wrestlers were these fat old guys who looked ridiculous ib the ring. Then the mid 80s came along and pro wrestlers at least started looking the part b/c they buffed up (many with steroids).
Paul SB
I said "best" - I should have said "least bad"!!
“Dave Sim (sorry) advocates that if you actually have the nerve to ask for a sign, and you then in fact receive it, you probably shouldn't dismiss that.”
Feh. Try the Big Sermon. Stepping outside with a believer in prayer and asking for the clear and EXPLICIT statement of what He wants and for it to be visible to all on Earth. So that never again will a person be consigned to damnation for innocently believing wrong stuff his/her parents told him. Much better and more effective than human sacrifice of an only begotten son. And well within His omnipotent powers. Instead of face-shaped burn marks in a piece of toast.
I think the video of Two Scoops IS consistent with a self-inflicted event... up until he pumps his fist at the cameras. I don't think he's a good enough actor to fake the anger he showed.
Technically possible, I suppose, whether or not I remotely believe it. Just goes to show that evidence doesn't lock down unique explanatory narratives. We always have to make 'shadow of a doubt' decisions.
scidata,
I keep a black rotary desktop phone around for my recent centaur explanations. Turns out I can hold it behind me with one hand and swing it around like it was a horse's tail. In my other hand I hold my iPhone then swap which hand is behind me.
Swing. Swap. Swing. Swap. Swing.
Now which one helps me more to manage the heavy loads of communicating in the modern age?
Then put them both down. What's left when the pure human tries to do it? Can I keep up?
----
Most of the message is purely visual once you get across that the horsey-end of a centaur is strong and capable of doing what a human cannot.
@Alfred: Thank you for your answer!
Yah. Well… It's his company. He considers it a violation of his property when people try to dictate how he may use it. Old school liberals and libertarians get quite annoyed when others try to dictate the uses property they do not own.
That doesn't mean he thinks he owns the employees. Far from it. They are free to work his company… or not.
Maybe it is a cultural thing. In our Constitution (Article 14.2 Basic Law), we have the following rule:
Property entails obligations. Its use shall also serve the public good.
To be clear, it is not terribly strongly enforced, but I find the brevity of this rule as well as the philosophical implications important for our discussion.
If I own a dog, I am responsible if my dog bites another person or dog.
If I own a company, I am responsible if my company hurts people.
If I own a social media platform, I am responsible for what content can circulate and which users are allowed, hindered or boosted by the platform.
If my business is small, my impact on the public good is minimal, and I can be ignored.
If my business is large, my impact on the public good is considerable, and I cannot be ignored.
If the state and society I live in grant me credits to stay alive, provide skilled workers through taxpayer-funded education and the infrastructure needed to run my business, I profit from the common good.
If I weaponize my business, and can do so because of the size and importance of my business to affect the will of the people and to impose my will on the state, I am a threat to the public good.
If I support political candidates who have the clear intent to diminish the public good, or if I negotiate with foreign enemies in a way that endangers the state, and can do so because of the size and importance of my business, I walk a dangerous path.
Ha! Don't hold back. Let us know what you think of him.
Good Things:
- Advanced space tech
- Advanced e-cars
- Advanced human-machine interfaces
- Drove hundreds of miles to obtain a D&D module in his youth
- Was probably a bullied nerd who persevered
Bad Things
- Twitter and what he made it into
- Aligns himself with enemies of democracy and freedom
- Promotes/Utters antisemitic, homophobic, transphobic etc stuff
- Wants to avoid taxes and worker protection laws
- Probably consumes too much drugs
- How he dealt with Viviane
- Got his starting cash from a quite colonialist father
Unfortunately, though, this shows you likely have never worked for a start-up company… let alone one causing HUGE market disruptions.
No, I am in the business of helping rapidly eroding public good and critical infrastructure from collapsing or going supercritical. It is always amazing how fast self-declared libertarians call for preferential treatment on the expense of others, cheap and simple solutions for expensive and complex problems, and government bail-outs if all else fails.
As of market disruptions ... while they have their place, let's not forget that there are downsides to it, too - which gave you Trumps first (and hopefully only) term and us five eastern federal states which have Nazis polling at 30+% and pro Putin stalinists at 15%.
Der Oger
I agree with your list except
Got his starting cash from a quite colonialist father
Nope he earned his startup money
Wants to avoid taxes and worker protection laws
So far Musk has NOT done all of the usual anti-Tax manoeuvres - and has paid the largest amount of Tax any individual has ever paid
The same with "Worker protection laws" - he operates in the USA - and obeys the laws there
Outside the USA he obeys the laws - in those countries - IMHO he is smart enough to understand that pissing off your workforce is a stupid idea - but pissing off the people who don't work for you is less important
Musk groks "Foundation" (he put a copy in orbit). Asimov's "Foundation" is not simply a modern rendition of Plato's "Republic". It's less about politics and justice as it is about a deep love of humanity. Extreme humanism. That's kind of weird, but IMHO it's the best way of making it through the Great Filter.
To Der Oger's 'good things' I will add the backup battery storage facility he provided to South Australia following severe storms which disrupted the energy grid about 9 years ago. There's a bit of a race between backup suppliers as to who can be first in to take up the slack when there's an outage. Turns out there's no contest between gas turbines and batteries.
To the 'bad things', that idiotic snit about having his Thai cave rescue submarine snubbed.
Of course, by "love of humanity" I certainly don't mean 'niceness'. He and niceness departed ways decades ago. I mean Humanity as in homo sapiens sapiens.
Dr Brin:
Feh. Try the Big Sermon. Stepping outside with a believer in prayer and asking for the clear and EXPLICIT statement of what He wants and for it to be visible to all on Earth.
You're responding as if I said I suddenly believe in a particular religion.
All I said was that I'm more willing to entertain possible evidence of unexplained forces. Not that they have any particular agenda regarding us.
Der Oger:
Maybe it is a cultural thing. In our Constitution (Article 14.2 Basic Law), we have the following rule:
Property entails obligations. Its use shall also serve the public good.
That's exactly what I was going for when I said that Asimov's Laws of Robotics could be modified for corporations.
Note that Alfred was the vehement opposition to that notion.
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