Did you ever bang your head repeatedly against a wall, insisting over and over that "There ought to be a door here!"
It's how Lincoln must have felt, searching for generals who could defeat Bobby Lee. Till he found some. Till he found that door.
Likewise, I keep hoping the good side in this phase 8 of the U.S. Civil War will try agility and judo, rather than the same, tired sumo grunt-n-shove tactics, over and over and over, leaving the initiative to the other side... as they are doing in this current, crucial battle over the fate of civilization, the nation and our future.
I can't help it. While my head aches from wall-banging, I have to keep trying, as when I wrote Polemical Judo. And so, again, here are suggested tactics that could help, right now.
== Biden's "age thing." Getting a win-win-win. ==
Last week, I concluded a long, multi-topic blog with a proposed maneuver for President Joe Biden to deal with the age issue. This time - revised - it comes up top. One way that he could satisfy both his many strong supporters within the Democratic Party and those urging him to step aside, for the good of the nation.
This move would show his sincerity about doing the right thing, while also displaying his legendary courage and fighting spirit! Depending on the outcome, it would either reinforce his position as dynamic leader, or ease his way to gracefully annointing a successor.
It would also anchor-in what's fundamental here. That this is not about one man!
In fact, it would show that all leading Democrats are light years better than all leading Republicans. At all levels and in all ways.
Would you give it a try in your minds? Weigh the idea... and maybe pass it along?
== Mr. President, say this now! ==
"Look, I had a bad debate. I and millions of others don't believe that it means much. Nor do some slips of the tongue.
"But I do listen! And I know some of you out there are concerned, Moreover, unlike my opponent, I know that wishing something and yelling it doesn't make it so.
"Hey, I am showing signs of time's passage! I surround myself with the best folks the nation has to offer and I have vast experience. And some say I'm generally kind of a wise-guy...
"But I won't be obstinate. So let's test this!
"These would not be 'debates' as such. We won't be attacking each other... much. But it will accomplish many things at once!
- First, it will test me! If I can hold my own with these whippersnappers, that should anchor my rightful (already-earned) place as the party's nominee with joyful confidence!
- If I fail that challenge, then the best new leaders of our party -- and in-future the nation -- will get to show what they've got, before the party convention delegates, who will then have the authority given to them by voters this spring, to choose another slate.
"I am confident they will pick Biden-Harris! But if not, I will campaign for any of these fine folks, with vigor and energy!
- This will also show the depth of the Democratic Party's bench! The public will see that there are no flukes. Any and every person on the forum stage will be blatantly better - smarter, more grownup and vastly more moral - than any and every politician in the Republican Party!
- And finally, there's this. Jeepers. Should we turn down this opportunity for a vast TV audience? Let the forum participants disagree over this and that practical matter or proposal! Let them emphasize varied priorities, within our general consensus of goodness, courage, generosity of spirit. And dedication to facts! We'll have a great chance to present our administration's accomplishments...
...plus proofs about the dangers facing the nation, planet, civilization, freedom and our children! And a great chance to disprove the other party's mountain of volcanic, poisonous lies.
"I am consulting across a wide range of wise folks. But clearly, joining me onstage will be my own chosen running mate, world-respected stateswoman and my trusted friend, Vice President Kamala Harris!
"Who else? Obviously, we need Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom up there! I want Pete Buttigieg, too, plus the dynamic and mature Hakeem Jeffries.
"I'll let Bernie, Liz and AOC work out among themselves which of them to send from their wing. And from the other wing...? Hey Joe Manchin! Care to come back for a few nights and try the waters? They're pretty darn foul over there in the Fox county of lies! Over here we argue fairly, about true things. And we'll welcome any true input from you.
"So there you have it. Unlike my opponent, who squelches any competition, who demands utter, slavish obedience and who denies any possible fault, I'll admit I might be wrong when I look in a mirror and say "You still got it, kid!"
"Like any wise grampa, I'll listen to the best and wisest of later generations!
"And so, we're gonna get seven of em up on stage with me. And I predict two things.
"First, you'll see a terrific future for the Democratic Party and for America!
"But also, you will see that I still got it!
"And when I don't any longer... as happens to all of God's creatures... we have a team that will keep America great and keep America winning!
"God bless you all and good night."
== Are there ANY ways that would not be a win-win-win? ==
...allowing Joe to either disprove the carps and re-unify the party and nation behind him...
...or else ease aside, amid a love fest of admiration for his wisdom, as the convention delegates demonstrate democracy and sensible adulthood in action, choosing from a deep bench of brilliant, next-wave leaders.
Either way, a vast TV audience will see and hear that this is about a lot more than one or two men. And especially this: a person who appoints - or mentors - folks like these can be trusted to do a lot more for us all.
== More suggestions? Seriously Brin? End on a high note! ==
Naw, I can't help it. There's just too much. While I believe those seven-plus-Biden folks are good and wise leaders, only one of them has any chops when it comes to polemic. (There's that word again!) And even that one could use some outside help.
Last time I addressed some basic, polemical ways to slash at the Supreme Cult majority's travesty "Presidential Immunity Ruling."
I also addressed the dems' incredible failure to properly exploit the vast number of Trump appointees who later 'betrayed' him -- a devastating fact that only the Lincoln Project has handled well.
Speaking of 'projects'... Some folks are doing well polemically, attacking the treasonous, loathsome Project 2025. But I also added some potential knives about that, too. Last time.
But the one that really kills me is how NO Dem-leader is zeroing in on the one central issue - in my view.
That issue is the mad right's blatant campaign to debase the very word 'fact.'
== POUND on this one! ==
No one... no pol or pundit... categorically and relentlessly exposes the core GOP agenda -- waging all-out war vs. all fact using professions! From science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
I assert that this matters, more than any other issue! For one reason. Facts can disprove the lie-ravings about every other topic, from racism to communism-turned-fascism. From abortion to gender-slanders, to planetary neglect. From lies about the economy to damned-lies about Russia and 'stolen' elections.
Facts are the only bullets that actually kill lies.
Alas. We have instead an era when all sides rave assertions, with an underlying assumption that all assertions are equal, under Freedom of Speech.
You say there are 'fact-checking services?' How's that going for you? So-called 'fact-checkers' aren't working for some very basic reasons. And shrugging off those reasons is what makes you no damn help, at all.
Here's the deal: Demolition of the centrality of FACT in politics and policy is arguably the greatest crime committed by the undead were-elephant that has taken over the decaying, putrifying body of the Party of Lincoln.
It is the top reason why the State of Arizona now draws 17% of its electrical power from the spinning in Barry Goldwater's grave.
This polemical failure by Democrats and moderates was most telling during the 'bad day' presidential debate, a couple of weeks ago. Joe Biden kept muttering 'That's not true,' never realizing what should be obvious.
That phrase is meat to Trumpists!
It's like the schoolyard whine "th-that's no f-fair!" The plaint that every playground bully positively lives to hear from the kids he is tormenting! WATCH as Trump smiles, whenever Biden says it.
"That's not true," can be said in ways that devastate liars. But those methods all involve tenacious pursuit. Sinking your teeth into the lies and not letting go!
And so...
== Another thing for Joe to shout! ==
It truly ought to be obvious. Though...
... though why do I bother?
The politicos on the good side of this phase of the 250 year U.S. Civil War are worthy of our vigorous support. But ever since Jerry Brown or Al Franken, I have yet to see one willing to even consider fresh ideas.
If there's any common trait among all politicians, across every chasm or divide, it is the trait of Not Invented Here.
281 comments:
1 – 200 of 281 Newer› Newest»@Dr Brin,
I'm afraid your suggestions are non-starters with the real politicians, partly because of "Not Invented Here", but it goes beyond that. Old-school politicians like President Biden who have been at it for 50 years are naturally...well, conservative...in their approaches to doing anything new. They'd be afraid that anything which gives oxygen to alternative candidates weakens Biden and weakens the party's position.
I'm not advocating, just explaining.
Stonkettle on Threads, stating my own position as well as his:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
You're mad at me because I said: I support Biden, but if he steps down or is forced out, I'll support his replacement. Some of you are mad I don't want Biden replaced. Some of you are mad because I've made my decision if he is. Some of you are just mad.
Folks, politicians come and go. I swore my oath to The Republic, not some politician. My concern is for the future, of our nation AND the world. To me the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING is keeping Trump and his incipient fascism out of office.
LH and my proposal is how to do both. Please tell wright.
Reagan took on the age thing head on. In a debate, he joked that he could overlook Mondale's "youth and inexperience". The audience laughed, and that was the end of that. Could Biden pull that off?
Reagan went senile in his second term, but everyone overlooked _that._ I suppose that's a case of IOKIYAR.
The worst-case scenario is that Biden is King Log, and Trump is King Stork; and as the Aesop fable tells us, King Log is better than King Stork.
The past few weeks have seen people harp on Biden = King Log; the proper retort is to harp on Trump = King Stork. And that's been happening.
After all, if you don't trust the government, then you can trust the kind honest tired geezer to not do the wrong thing much more than the vicious lying deranged geezer.
But of course I'd rather not have to choose between Kings, either Log or Stork. Impeach the royalist Supremes. That too is in process. Thank you, AOC.
Para,
"...Impeach the royalist Supremes. That too is in process."
It's a process without a conclusion. Unfortunately. You'd need 2/3 of the Senate to vote for conviction to remove one of these corrupt (insert appropriate pejorative), which you won't be able to get because Clarence T, for instance, could be handing out green stamps from the bench and no GQP senator would vote to impeach. 'Shame' is a null phrase there.
That being said, I applaud the effort! It's just going to take other means* - none of which are going to be much easier, I fear.
* other LEGAL means, mind you.
Pappenheimer
The NPR disease: make sure that every discussion of geophysics includes a flatearther, and every discussion of racism includes a racist.
Steve Inskeep's Dec 9, 2015 interview with Ted Cruz is a case in point. I know bicycle mechanics who could have done better.(not just me)
"The Neanderthal Y chromosome, for example, is more similar to the Y chromosome found in living humans than it is to the rest of the Neanderthal genome. In 2020, researchers offered an explanation: Neanderthal males inherited a new Y chromosome from humans between 370,000 and 100,000 years ago. But that would have made sense only if a wave of Africans had expanded out of the continent much earlier than scientists had thought."
"But why do the early migrations out of Africa seem to have fizzled away? Was there something different about the people in the last wave?"
Well, yeah, I talk about it in EXISTENCE.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/science/humans-neanderthals-out-of-africa.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6k0.7FYe.HsaHByCZpyoP&smid=url-share
Pappenheimer:
* other LEGAL means, mind you.
Well, if the president does it, then it is not illegal.
David: In some previous posting, you said that the orange guy was likely to be killed before the election. Today it looks like they missed. Or is this a fake attack to be blamed on the Biden criminal family?
Someone else on Stonekettle's Threads feed:
Media putting Trump in the White House for clicks and ratings in 2016 was the first airplane hitting the Twin Towers.
What media is doing now is the 2nd plane hitting the other tower.
DJM:
Or is this a fake attack to be blamed on the Biden criminal family?
That was my first thought, especially since he's still alive. But to intentionally shoot his face without killing him seems awfully implausible.
What I'm not hearing is how the shooter was killed. It would make sense that the Secret Service returned fire, but that's not what the coverage looks like.
Dr. Brin,
I’m afraid your judo suggestions are too intelligent. But if you dumb it down...
Biden challenges Trump to a 24 hour feats of strength, endurance, manliness, fitness and intelligence. Same site, live-televised. Drug test before. Both men wear heart monitors. Data is transparent. Split screen with fixed camera positions. Commentators given limited split air time. The top 7 online gambling sites agree to donate proceeds to go to some sort of Veteran outreach.
A: A weigh in. Then, feats of strength. (Joe rips off shirt and challenges T to do same.) Pushups. Sit-ups. Pull-ups. Treadmill. Swim. Heavy Bag (force meter) Cargo Net climb. Bicycle motocross short track.
B: Timed Wonderlic Test
C: Inebriation intervals mixed with games of skill.
Rounds of shots followed by rounds of darts, cornhole, billiards, golf ball putting, and axe-throwing. Oyster or fish taco eating contest. Video Game dual off a list of popular titles or something like 1980 Missile Command. TelePrompTer reading of Dr. Seus or Karaokee performance of star spangled banner. Following directions to make a cake. Putting on a suit of clothes after a 20 minute speedo nap. The list could go on and on.
To spice things up, a week before the competition, Kamilla Harris joins the field.
If Trump were to turn tail or weasels out, which he almost certainly would unless he could control the television broadcast and commentating, the rest of the campaign Biden could run adds like the "Bo knows" Nike series featuring himself doing all the events and rubbing T's face in it for backing out: Popping a beer and throwing a dart. Swimming. Heavy Bag. Video Gaming. Cargo-net.
Come out of a shirtless push-up. "Trump said, Grab them by the pussy. Talk's cheap, Donny boy. Grab some of this. Oh wait, you wouldn't do it. B-b-b-body shaming and cancel-culture."
Unfortunately, what Larry said about politicians and new ideas is probably accurate.
Stonekettle on Threads after the shooting:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Home. Back in the office. I've watched the event a couple dozen times. I'm going to keep my professional military opinion to myself for the moment, but I will say there's something damn peculiar about this.
That said, as always, wait for more data.
* * *
Again, Folks, it's bad enough, don't make it worse. Don't spread rumors and speculation. Regard all unconfirmed reports with skepticism. Await more validated information.
And for fuck's sake, don't say things that will get you banned from this platform, or earn you a visit from the Secret Service (or someone worse).
Mention is made of shooter using an AR15. That's a big sucker but more accurate than a pistol and SO many more questions!
Anyone see the attempted assassination scene in LIMITLESS?
I've made it very clear i want the Secret Service to keep him alive and to be wary that the ones really wanting him replaced by Nikki Haley are the oligarchs.
My thriller scenario. He was refusing to name Haley his VP and this was a warning to obey. But that's a movie thriller plot, not plausibility.
BTW my father was 30 feet from Bobby on that night in 68.
Arguing that communism works at the level of HG nomadic bands actually gets my enthusiastic support... up until someone suggests that it can be made to work at a larger scale. No. We've tried. Humans don't work that way.
I'd add onto it that communism (really just 'indirect reciprocity', local economization, and the moral structure that goes with it) is the ONLY approach that works long term for small bands of humans. We can try others, but they aren't competitive.
Small band cooperation with indirect reciprocity won us six of the seven continents and a worldwide population numbering in the many millions. That's more than our hominid cousins managed with much more time to spread around. Not too shabby.
What ultimately set us apart from the other hominids, though, was our willingness to go beyond indirect reciprocity. We traded with people outside our kinship groups. THAT was seriously weird and took a kind of mental plasticity that partially quashed our natural xenophobia.
We've been trading since long before the ice melted and still like to treat that as an occasional exception to our ancient moral structure, yet this trading extension won us the seventh continent, a population numbering in the billions, the wholesale slaughter of our ancient microbial enemies, and now we stand on the porch looking out into space armed with tools our HG nomad ancestors would think make us Gods.
Summon Lightning and Thunder! Strike!
Well,
People who believe in the all powerful deep state will say this is a warning to Trump to not go after them again.
JV depends what you mean by 'deep state.' The preposterous fantasy of hundreds of thousands of FBI/CIA/justice/science/elections and other officials conniving in a perfect ongoing plot that sufferes zero mistakes, slipups or defection... without a known plausible motivation...
...or a few hundred inheritance brats, casino mafiosi, hedge lords, murder sheiks, "ex" commissars and current commissars, all of them united with motive, means and opportunity to plan and push a putsch against enlightenment democracies that threaten to end feudalism, forever?
#1 has no known analogs across all of time. #2 is exactly what we've seen repeatedly across 6000 years.
"...won us the seventh continent..."
Yes, but do we really want Australia
Re: communism...I suspect something is going to have to replace what we have now if we actually reach a post-scarcity civilization - the kind that Pohl envisioned 30 - no, OMG, 40 years ago. In one of his stories, it was the rich who lived simply while the poor were forced into endless consumption of luxury goods. Star Trek carefully avoided describing the economic system that supported the Enterprise, except that cash didn't seem to play a large part. I tried my hand at a reciprocity - based economic system in a fantasy novel, but it relied on limited population growth and people forming 'kinhouses' that traded with each other based on what each kinhouse produced or provided. Basically, you could trust the relatives in your house, and there was a backstop to make sure humans weren't starving - if you were thrown out of your house or it fell apart, there was the Kinless House. (The elves set it all up because humans were really useful for making things, but it's a little like breeding rabbits. Rabbits who can form armies.)
Pappenheimer
"Itan and Ilan found a kinhouse to stable Lackwit. The grooms asked whose kin they were, looked at them, and that was that.
“If you didn't have a kinhouse around here, that would be rough,” Itan noted.
They tested this theory at a bakery on the way back. Ilan claimed Gold Ridge and collected a bun; Itan got a sympathetic look and directions to the Kinless House.
“This only works if everyone knows everyone else,” Ilan said, mouth muffled by half a cheesy bun.
“And if there are plenty of cheesy buns,” Itan agreed, licking his fingers."
Pappenheimer
"...if the president does it, then it is not illegal*."
*Offer valid for Republican presidents only.
Pappenheimer
P.S. John, I'm sure that's a theory that's out there, but that's an insane theory. Putting one's * just to scare a politician? We don't know yet, but odds are whoever was exercising their 2A rights in PA can't be interrogated except by seance.
You need lots of cheesy buns, knowledge of who is who well enough to validate kinship membership, AND a willingness to defer to those who do the economizing for your group.
A child agrees to have their parents economize... up until they don't. Childlike trust is genetically rewarded with higher survival odds, but we do it for up to the band level without much hesitation. Of course... we are social critters. It works extremely well.
I suspect band fissioning was mostly about breaches of trust regarding how resources were economized. Not having enough cheesy buns likely stressed a band turning small fractures into fissures, but I think breaches of trust would have been a high speed neutron. Look at how those of us today react to betrayal.
-------
I strongly suspect that bands larger than about 200 people simply cannot hold together using economizing techniques writ large. We cannot trust each other enough because we simply can't fit that many in our heads to determine whether or not they ARE trustworthy.
It's not that economization as a technique fails. It doesn't. What fails is our ability to use it among people who engage in deceit. We might feel bonds of kinship with a couple hundred people (some looser than others), but we KNOW some of them are liars and cheats... because we know them. Dunbar's number is the rough limit. (I'm oversimplifying in suggesting we know this with precision. We don't.)
What to do about it? Hire an angel we can all trust to do the economizing? Well... we would ALL have to know them and know them well. Even if such a being offered to do the job, that might not suffice. Trust is a tricky thing easily lost even by those of good intentions. How many of us remain loyal to a supposedly benevolent God? Some? How?
-------
The markets we have aren't magical, mysterious, or malicious. They are simply what we invented to make up for our small brains when the number of people with whom we interact overtook us.
How many people are involved in creating a cheesy bun in our world? Way more than Dunbar's limit.
Pappenheimer:
If they can figure out who the shooter was, then investigate his writings, then that's a non-seance method of interrogation.
Dr. Brin:
So what do you figure? Was this an attempt by the oligarchs? And why so close? A few inches either way and the news would differ a lot.
Of course we should await more data.
Word is that it was a shooter using an ar-15 from outside the security perimeter.
Given the massive damage caused by an ar-15 round (exploding body parts being a common description) how likely is it that it passed through Trump's upper right ear, delivered only a grazing wound and did not hit anyone behind him (5 to 7 shots fired)?
Best comment I read about the gunplay so far:
"Well, we know he or she wasn't a Marine."
Pappenheimer
If trump does lose, his MAGA fanatics will turn violent.
If trump wins our cities will explode.
Civil war 2 - electric boogaloo.
Might be a good time to stock up on beans, rice and MREs.
He now has his own personal reichstag fire as an excuse to suspend civil liberties.
And a SCOTUS that will back him.
Alfred,
You're right. Itan and Ilan are teenage half-elves, thinking "Whatever works, as long as I can snag a few cheesy buns."
Their 'Aunt' Sapphire, who's sung for her supper all her life, is shaking her head and can't believe it works without some kind of divine intervention*.
*such as an author's decree. And you know, in their world there ARE active deities...
Pappenheimer
Now you have me thinking about the supply chain needed to have a bakery supplying cheesy buns to a mostly medieval city. You're right - that's got some numbers to it.
Pappenheimer
If Trump hadn’t moved his head, while discussing an immigration chart, he might have died or been incapacitated.
Howard Beale.
Trump and Beale side-by-side:
https://mediaproxy.salon.com/width/1200/https://media2.salon.com/2015/11/beale_trump.jpg
Note the similarity of demeanor.
I'm taking Stonekettle's advice and not speculating (outside my own head) about possible motives or ramifications yet. We'll know what we'll know in a relatively short amount of time.
Hesitant to post a "wall of text", but the link is not paywalled. Electoral-Vote.com succinctly analyzes some of the more cynical aspects of the aftermath, including the opportunistic responses of prominent Republicans.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul14-1.html
...
In any case, late in the day yesterday, the FBI identified the shooter. He was 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, and he lived in Bethel Park, PA, which is about 45 miles south of where the rally took place. The good news is that he was not an ethnic or religious minority, and he was a registered Republican (though he did once donate $15 to a progressive-aligned group). The reason these things are good news, as sad as it is to say, is that there will be considerably less impetus for vigilante "revenge" while things shake out over the next few days. At the moment, it is not known what Crooks' motivation for the shooting was; the FBI is busy talking to relatives and acquaintances
...
That said, we reject entirely the argument made by Vance, Turley, et al. that the attack on Trump is due to the Democrats and/or Biden's presidential campaign. Highlighting your opponent's negative qualities is a product of the American electoral system, and always has been. There is zero problem in making dire predictions about what your opponent will do if they gain power, especially when those predictions are rooted in evidence, as they are in the case of Trump. Oh, and if villainizing your opponent IS wrong, well, Trump's hands are far from clean here. In fact, there may be no presidential candidate in history whose hands are dirtier when it comes to that particular issue.
The problem comes when a candidate (or their campaign) moves beyond mere villainization of their opponents, and starts talking about the use of violence as a legitimate means for countering their opponents. And we are not willing to entertain a "both sides do it" argument here; this is almost 100% coming from Trump, his acolytes, and his enablers in the media. Hundreds of times, Trump has called for violence against Mexican immigrants, up to and including an armed incursion into Mexico. When was the last time a Democrat called for violence against evangelicals, or for an armed incursion into Alabama? Trump called for Hillary Clinton to be locked up, without benefit of charge or trial, and then said Joe Biden should receive the same treatment. While Democrats certainly approve of Trump being held accountable for actual crimes he's been indicted for, none of them have called for Trump to be a victim of the sort of summary, drumhead-trial "justice" he regularly advocates. And just last week, the president of the Heritage Foundation threatened that if anyone opposed Trump during a second presidential term, there would be bloodshed. We don't recall, say, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) ever warning that people can either chose the Green New Deal or they will be put up against the wall.
No, there is no "both sides" here. It is one faction that has normalized violence as a political tool, and the J.D. Vances and Jonathan Turleys of the world should not be taken seriously when they make spurious arguments to the contrary.
So Trump has something else in common with Hitler. Has anyone considered the possibility - though remote I admit - that the attempt could have been arranged? It's awfully convenient for someone who constantly yells that "they" are after him, and it couldn't have happened at a better time, and he only had to lose enough blood for the cameras to display. That and the Secret Service just completely ignored a firing position as obvious as a water tower looming over the field.
How's that for conspiracy myth peddling?
Paul SB
Paul SB:
Has anyone considered the possibility - though remote I admit - that the attempt could have been arranged?
Yes, of course. I'd venture to say that it was the first thing that occurred to many of us here.
But pushing that theory preemptively might be...well, counterproductive. Best to let the real facts come out and see where they lead.
Totally appropriate snark from the Electoral-Vote.com link above:
For every single president or former president who has been killed or wounded in an assassination attempt, the weapon used was a gun. Maybe this will be the incident that re-starts a national, bipartisan dialogue on gun control, just as the Reagan assassination attempt did. Or is this not the time to discuss gun control, with thoughts and prayers being the only appropriate response? We always get confused on what the rules are when a Republican politician gets shot versus what the rules are when a bunch of schoolchildren get shot.
Cheesy Buns,
While arguments over food distribution do often cause fissioning, it is not nearly as common as arguments over very different kinds of buns. Sexual jealousy is rife among hominids, which is why humans everywhere have marriage customs. It's supposed to limit people's sexual behavior, which limits fights over it. Obviously it's far from a perfect solution. When micro satellite DNA testing became widely available, a team (from Northwestern U, if memory serves - better take that one with a salt shaker) gave paternity tests to every baby born in a Minnesota hospital for a year, and found that fully 25% of babies were genetically unrelated to the men listed as fathers on their birth certificates.
Paul SB
Stonekettle again this morning. My thoughts exactly.
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Again, I remind you to avoid spreading unverified information, conspiracy theories, wild speculation for clicks and likes, and/or amplifying the actions of domestic bad actors and foreign entities attempting to increase chaos and sow division.
I also suggest you look at who this morning is calling for MORE violence and who is condemning it. Then decide which side you want running the country and what kind of society you want to live in. Act accordingly.
"Civil war 2 - electric boogaloo"
And, just in time, ammo vending machines are being introduced in TX...OK...and AL.
SO, in the middle of the firefight in downtown Austin:
"We're pinned down by the American Library Association and running low on clips or magazines or whatever we decided to call them today! Curtis, go get some extra rounds!"
"Got it! Um - can you throw me your Visa Card? I'm tapped out!"
Pappenheimer
P.S. More seriously - without a Seldon Future Generator, can't know what the odds of a hot war are if either candidate loses, but I'm thinking stochastic violence. The question is what happens if there are mass demonstrations after a rumpt 'victory' decreed by the USSC, met with excessive force.
Pappenheimer
Paul,
If the weapon was an off the shelf semiauto rifle, and the shooter was not at point blank range, I don't see how you can rig a 'missed by that much' outcome and not have 'brains spattered on the rear audience' as a likely alternative outcome. We don't know enough yet to discount the possibility, but...
Pappenheimer, who never shot marksman level in annual practice, but has stared down iron sights at a torso-shaped target, which is supposed to reduce hesitation if you ever have to shoot actual people. Most humans, I understand, would rather not, unless cheesy or uncheesy buns are at stake.
Oh by the mantra: "Crooks tried to kill me!"
Trump & Beale imagery is both cool & scary.
“Given the massive damage caused by an ar-15 round (exploding body parts being a common description) how likely is it that it passed through Trump's upper right ear, delivered only a grazing wound and did not hit anyone behind him (5 to 7 shots fired)?”
AR-15 rounds are actually rather small for a combat rifle. They tumble and shatter on impact but it takes an actual impact. Not an ear.
In any event, the grazing wound is just not possible for anyone to ‘arrange’, as in the show LIMITLESS. You’d need a laser, timed to fire at the sound of a bullet aimed-to-miss. And even so…
“ 25% of babies were genetically unrelated to the men listed as fathers on their birth certificates.”
Yet, the Cohenim Y Chromosome – “Aaron’s chromosome” – is remarkably well-preserved among Cohenim. Suggesting Cohen women have been remarkably loyal… or else keep it within the clan.
The events yesterday are a nightmare and are a portent of possible bad things in our future.
Based on my small familiarity with law enforcement, firearms, and shooting, I find it highly unlikely that this was a staged event (ala THE PARALLAX VIEW). I remember an episode of HAWAII FIVE-O where there was a staged assassination attempt on a man stepping off of an airplane. The supposed victim had a white dot on his suit. The attempt was staged to increase the man's credibility so he could gain access to commit a crime. I don't remember the details.
You can't plan gunfire like that. Trump was moving as the assassin fired. If he had not turned his head, the bullet that hit his ear would have hit the back side of his head.
I agree with David Brin that we must oppose the oligarchs and prevent then from subjugating us. I will do my best to be an example of the best that a civil servant can be. I really dislike President Biden but if I was asked to take a senior position in his administration I would (after consulting with Mae) take that job and feel honored. I would do my best to carry out directives from the President in the best way possible. I would also protect him with my life. I would do all of this for any US President.
I am an idealist and I see the law as an instrument to help us work towards true justice. What is "true justice?" That is hard to answer. It is something to strive for. We should never feel as if we have achieved it and relax. I can always do better.
Dr. Brin and GMT-5,
My suggestion was only meant as counter-programming. Republicans lie so much was should be calling them the Rug Party. However, you are both missing something here. Stage blood. The Grope could have easily kept a capsule in his pocket, then when the shooting started, brought it to his ear and burst it. He would have to pay off the medical personnel at the hospital to keep it a secret, but that could have been arranged in advance. It's still far-fetched, but if Republicans can believe that Democrats eat babies, surely we could confuse them with something like this.
We don't have a motive yet, so we can only speculate. The shooter was a registered Republican, but donated $15 to a Democratic org. A never-Trumper, maybe? Or a very spiritual person who decided that Trump is the Anti-Christ? That would be an easy identification to make.
Paul SB
Dr. Brin,
"Suggesting Cohen women have been remarkably loyal… or else keep it within the clan."
Given that fully 25% of American women are sexually assaulted at least once in their lives, and the majority of those are assaulted multiple times, by a member of the family or trusted member of the community, while under age, the idea that they keep it within the clan is not at all unreasonable - though it would hardly be by their choice.
How are the marmoset observations going?
Paul SB
From elsewhere on the 'net:
"The roof was less than 150 meters (yards) from where Trump was speaking, a distance from which a decent marksman could reasonably hit a human-sized target. For reference, 150 meters is a distance at which U.S. Army recruits must hit a scaled human-sized silhouette to qualify with the M16 assault rifle in basic training."
Yeah, even I could have done that from prone supported position, assuming I had sighted in the rifle first. Several shots fired. rumpt was dam' lucky.
The article goes on to question why the shooter was allowed to set up at his position by what seems to have been an incompetent Secret Service presence. I'm not seeing a conspiracy to kill the candidate so much as future conspiracy to cover the SS's uncheesy buns.
Pappenheimer
"The shooter was a registered Republican, but donated $15 to a Democratic org."
Way too early for that kind of spec. Someone with the same name made a donation - in CA, I understand, while the shooter is a PA native. Name is not unique.
Pappenheimer
P.S. Re: sex habits of mammals, check out the naked mole rat. 1 queen, a few consorts, and a nest of their kids. Basically an mammalian version of an hive.
I am a kohen, at least I am for Conservative, Reform, and Reconstruction Jews. For Orthodox Jews, if called up to the bimah for an aliyah, I identify as "Israel."
Bor'chu es ado-noy ha-m'voroch.
Boruch ado-noy ha-m'voroch l'olom vo-ed.
Boruch ado-noy ha-m'voroch l'olom vo-ed.
Boruch atoh ado-noy elo-haynu melech ho-olom, asher bochar bonu mikol ha-amim, v'nosan lonu es toroso. Boruch atoh ado-noy, nosayn ha-toroh.
Good times. Spending 3+ hours in the sanctuary participating in the full weekly Shabbat service. No cell phone. No internet. Just following the ritual. It is a peaceful way to spend a weekend morning. Following that you go to a kiddish lunch with the rest of the congregation
My dad was born kohen but married a divorced woman. I have a picture of my dad from 1942 when he enlisted in the US Army Medical Corps. The picture is a match for the one in my profile here. Same face shape. Same hair line. Someone joked that my father looks more like me than I do.
A grazing shot is weird. A few inches one way, it misses; a few inches the other way, the target's head explodes. So is this a low-probability event?
The scratches on his cheek and chin are even weirder. Those are hits, not grazes; why didn't his head explode?
One theory I've heard is that the bullets hit the teleprompter, which sprayed glass. That would explain the above-mentioned anomalies. But, it's a theory. Take it with many grains of salt.
Low-probability events such as this - or the 2016 election - bring to my mind one of my favorite crackpot theories: the "Backfire Effect". This states that an event likely to trigger nuclear war will have its probability reduced; for that branch of the multiverse will have far fewer human observers than the other branches, which reduces its quantum amplitude. According to this theory, the 2016 election of Hillary Clinton would have sparked a nuclear confrontation with Putin; and a 2024 assassination of Trump would have sparked a civil war, escalating to global conflict. I grant that the Backfire Effect is hard to verify, as it posits quantum retrocausation on the macroscopic scale. On the other hand, nuclear weapons are quantum-mechanical devices, designed to amplify micro events to macro scale.
If the Backfire Effect applies, then expect more weirdness.
Doubt this post. It is speculative. We must await more data, though I doubt that the general public will ever get the whole story.
I went to many events where a president spoke in public between 2000 and 2005. I remember seeing government sharpshooters on top of every building with a line of sight to the podium for about a mile.
Back in the 90s I would go shooting with friends. We mostly fired Russian/Chinese AK-S and SK-S weapons...cheaper to own and easier to maintain than an AR. I am a poor shot but I could hit a milk jug at 100 yards using iron sights (no scope). Elevation (vertical) aiming is the hard part; horizontal aiming is easy. The shot that nicked Trump's ear shows that the shooter got the hard part right. Only that last minute move by Trump saved him.
Stage blood? No. If this were fakes then the emergency room personnel in the hospital would have to have been in on the conspiracy.
Mae and I were driving home when she first saw the news report on her phone. We did not think to turn on the radio. She said that there were popping noises and that Trump had what looked like blood on his right ear. I told her not to make any assumptions....for all we knew it was some firecrackers and the injury to Trump's ear happened when the Secret Service pushed him to the ground. It was not until we got home and saw the video on YouTube (still not turning on TV or radio) that I updated my beliefs about what happened.
The easiest explanation is usually the better explanation. What the country needs right now is for Trump and Biden to make a joint appearance and denounce violence. Probably will never happen.
Pappenheimer:
Way too early for that kind of spec. Someone with the same name made a donation - in CA, I understand, while the shooter is a PA native. Name is not unique.
The graphic that the NY Times linked to shows a Pennsylvania address Link below.
The $15 donation to VoteBlue for the "Progressive Turnout Project" was made on Jan 20, 2021. Biden's inauguration day. Whatever meaning that has is left as an exercise to the reader. Or as Dave Sim would put it:
"What's the significance? No, it doesn't work that way. What's the significance to you?"
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/eab599d76197b932/4bf3303b-full.pdf
Paradoctor:
One theory I've heard is that the bullets hit the teleprompter, which sprayed glass. That would explain the above-mentioned anomalies. But, it's a theory. Take it with many grains of salt.
That was one of my first thoughts too. Not the teleprompter specifically, but some sort of shrapnel. It's easier to believe than either an intention to wound but not kill or a failure to kill.
Do we even know if he was shooting at DJT specifically, or just shooting into the crowd without a specific target?
Low-probability events such as this - or the 2016 election - bring to my mind one of my favorite crackpot theories: the "Backfire Effect". This states that an event likely to trigger nuclear war will have its probability reduced; for that branch of the multiverse will have far fewer human observers than the other branches, which reduces its quantum amplitude.
Heh. You've mentioned that theory before. I question whether the "don't minimize observers" theory would be limited to nuclear war. Wouldn't the black death, or the Spanish flu, or COVID been dampened by this effect as well?
Still, it's interesting to contemplate in that it can't be falsified, but it can fit Occam's Razor in ways that other theories fail to do. Kind of like my own theory that Trump has Mule powers.
Cool, thanks for the correction. Lot of iffy data flying around.
Pappenheimer, going to take dog for walk
P.S. Not going to worry about how this will all affect the election, either. I'd rather our political leaders be chosen without benefit of gunfire, even in the USA. I think my side of this - Democratic, I mean - is attached to that quaint notion.
GMT etc:
What the country needs right now is for Trump and Biden to make a joint appearance and denounce violence. Probably will never happen.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if it did happen. But it's Trump's supporters who are engaging in opportunism while accusing liberals of doing what they themselves do.
Again, no wall of text, but here's an excerpt--one of many. The full link isn't paywalled.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul14-1.html
...
None of these responses bathe their respective sources in glory. However, the most vulgar response we saw yesterday was actually from everyone's favorite conservative-academic-pretending-to-still-be-a-liberal, Jonathan Turley. He whipped up an op-ed that begins thus:
The assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump left a nation stunned. But the most shocking aspect was that it was not nearly as surprising as it should have been. For months, politicians, the press and pundits have escalated reckless rhetoric in this campaign on both sides. That includes claims that Trump was set to kill democracy, unleash "death squads" and make homosexuals and reporters "disappear."
President Biden has stoked this rage rhetoric. In 2022, Biden held his controversial speech before Independence Hall where he denounced Trump supporters as enemies of the people. Biden recently referenced the speech and has embraced the claims that this could be our last democratic election.
I discuss this rage rhetoric in my new book, "The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage."
That's right. It took Turley just three paragraphs to not only blame Joe Biden, but also to use the incident to try to hawk copies of his latest book, available at finer bookstores everywhere. What an a** he is.
A non-political question for our host...
As I mentioned, I'm reading Kiln People for the third time. I still don't understand the significance of why Corporal Chen's ape-like ditto body was considered a "tax collector".
While I never demand that a writer explain his work, I am curious if you'd care to comment.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/08/13/us/politics/13election-live-photo-assess/13election-live-photo-assess-superJumbo-v2.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp
This image, taking by an NY Times photographer, appears to show a bullet streaking past Trump.
I now quote Plato, perhaps too soon:
If you shoot at a king, then you must kill him.
Somebody messed-up big time. But who? The R party that the shooter was in, or the progressive group that he sent $15 to?
Or is this a backfire of stochastic terrorism? Maybe the shooter shot at Trump for not being fascist enough. That would fit into my Backfire theory.
Larry Hart: maybe your crackpot theory and mine can synergize? Mule powers backfiring?
Larry Hart:
<<
Heh. You've mentioned that theory before. I question whether the "don't minimize observers" theory would be limited to nuclear war. Wouldn't the black death, or the Spanish flu, or COVID been dampened by this effect as well?
>>
The bombs operate upon subatomic particle physics, which is entirely quantum, so the Backfire Effect applies. The microbes work on a combination of quantum, thermodynamics, and classical physics, so the Backfire effect washes out. Or so I rationalize!
<<
Still, it's interesting to contemplate in that it can't be falsified, but it can fit Occam's Razor in ways that other theories fail to do. Kind of like my own theory that Trump has Mule powers.
>>
Do Trump's Mule powers arise from a Backfire? The old system was leading to a nuclear confrontation with desperate Putin, so a system-killing chaos agent with Mule powers arose, due to quantum retrocausation?
Backfire effects occur in human social space but do not have human logic and are not necessarily in human interest. It is the multiverse balancing its books in the most likely of the possible unlikely ways. So a Backfire will help you survive long enough to collapse the multiverse to one with you in it, but you might not like the mess that you collapsed yourself into.
Or so I speculate. Have a grain of salt.
That image of the bullet streaking past... It explains why no one of his fan-bleacher henind him took a hit, because the shooting was from stage right to stage left.
"Somebody messed-up big time. But who? The R party that the shooter was in, or the progressive group that he sent $15 to?"
Bah, most likely another white weasel with a gun and desperation to be somebody. One more argument for my longtime suggestion that dopey, attention seeking monsters should be punished in the best way, by name-erasure. See my "Erastratos Effect" proposal.
https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2012/07/names-of-infamy-deny-killers-notoreity.html
Bill Maher also riffed on this, less informatively but with wider circulation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfhJZz5UOaA
---
Yes, heads will roll at the Secret Service.
I’d like to know how the shooter was taken out. Likely by a SecServ sharpshooter on another roof whose attention got drawn swiftly, if incompetently late. Hey, is this not the age of drones?
I don’t think party voter registration should indicate much in a gerrymandered state, since EVERYONE should register in the party that owns the district they live in. If millions did that, it would turn the GOP primary into a general election and the radicalization of the GOP would suffer a fatal setback.
Not even remotely interested in Paul’s ‘marmoset’ dig. But I remain mildly curious about what he’s been dosing with.
“The scratches on his cheek and chin are even weirder.”
Blood dribble streaks from the ear wound.
I’m not seeing much about the folks DT always has lined up behind him but I presume one of the fatalities was there. Strange lack of panic in the glimpses I’ve seen.
LH thanks for getting me to re-read about Corporal Chen! Fun stuff! I guess he was collecting tax on the ditto combatants.
Larry,
"...teleprompter specifically, but some sort of shrapnel. It's easier to believe than either an intention to wound but not kill or a failure to kill."
Failure to kill is actually quite likely, speaking as someone who missed a man-sized target at 100 yards with the same style rifle*, scoring 3 out of 10 prone supported while qualifying - I became terrified that if I didn't qualify, I'd be delayed in getting out of hell and back to wife and newborn child. It took a drill sergeant shouting at me to break me up in laughter and qualify on the harder forms. It's like when vertigo makes you MORE likely to fall.
From the soundtrack, all the shots after the first were pretty close together in time. He may not have controlled his breathing and heart rate, missed his first shot, and the rest were without a clean sight picture, just adding more dakka in the hopes that something would hit.
So, just my semi informed opinion. Take of it what you will, but don't write off random chance, panic and foolishness.
*William Bonney seems to have cleaned missed a bank teller at six feet with six shots from a revolver on his first robbery, but I haven't checked the veracity of that.
Pappenheimer
'
Yipe, this guy sounds believable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG0qPDCWE9w
One thing. Footage shows DT adrenaline fighting his SecServ guys to ump his fist at the crowd. So... macho points.
I condemn the Republicans in the harshest terms who are saying that Democratic Party and Biden campaign rhetoric are responsible for this crime. But I also condemn everyone else who reaches to grab campaign rhetoric and claim that it was responsible for specific violent acts.
David, I saw that interview this morning. He does sound credible. If he is accurate (if) then it was a major cluster mess by the Secret Service. Hopefully they won't compound the sin by trying to cover their mistakes up. That would lead to lost evidence and ever wild claims of conspiracies (when the only conspiracy is the cover up).
Paradoctor:
Or is this a backfire of stochastic terrorism? Maybe the shooter shot at Trump for not being fascist enough.
I still wonder if he was trying to shoot Trump, or if he was just shooting up the crowd and didn't know or care who he hit.
Paradoctor:
So a Backfire will help you survive long enough to collapse the multiverse to one with you in it, but you might not like the mess that you collapsed yourself into.
The sad thing is, as a fan of Marvel Comics of the 70s, even long before the cinematic multiverse stuff, I understand that sentence.
Dr Brin:
because the shooting was from stage right to stage left.
I may be confused, but "stage right" means the audience's right, correct?
If so, that doesn't jibe with the location of the dead shooter. Are you suggesting a grassy knoll scenario with a second shooter?
Pappenheimer:
Failure to kill is actually quite likely, speaking as someone who missed a man-sized target at 100 yards with the same style rifle*,
I wouldn't be surprised if he shot and missed the target, but to hit close enough to graze (with an AR-15) and not do severe damage? Maybe God really did save Trump and let a spectator die instead, but otherwise, the sum of the angles of that rectangle are too numerous to contemplate.
Dr Brin:
Bill Maher also riffed on this, less informatively but with wider circulation:
Bill Maher was chiding the press for wanting information on the shooter, because he (rightly) wants to deny such people notoriety.
But I don't think the desire to know who and why in this case is about making the guy a celebrity. I first wanted to know that they guy is a white citizen, because otherwise the backlash would have been terrible (imagine if the shooter had baen an undocumented Venezuelan). Same with wanting to clarify if he was a right-wing lone wolf as most mass shooters turn out to be, because right now the left is being blamed, and I'd rather that not stick.
So there are reasons for the public to want some background. We can refuse to say his name later.
GMT:
I saw that interview this morning. He does sound credible. If he is accurate (if) then it was a major cluster mess by the Secret Service.
It reminds me of the aftermath of MLK's shooting, when a bunch of black men close to King were pointing across to a balcony where the shooter was, and the cops didn't seem to notice or maybe to care.
The liberal tendency (in both cases) is to assume that law enforcement was more sympathetic to the shooter than to the victim, but not having ever been present at such a situation, I have to acknowledge that what's going on is confusion and hysteria.
From what I've read about the Secret Service since January 6, I'd expect them to be for Trump, not against him.
I said:
I may be confused, but "stage right" means the audience's right, correct?
If so, that doesn't jibe with the location of the dead shooter.
Ok, if you meant the seated audience's right, then...nevermind.
I was thinking of the tv audience's (my) right.
I agree with everyone here- this is an awful turn of events. Political violence, even against bad people, is the last thing we need. That said, these goddamned GOPers with their hypocrisy, their political CalvinBall, their deliberately short memories, and their constant lies of omission sorely try my commitment to the whole rule of law thing. JD Vance is being especially odious here and I hope the Dems stiffen their spines and push bask against his nonsense. Yes, the Dems are calling Trump a threat to democracy, but, 1) they are 100% correct, and 2) they are advocating voting out GOPers, not shooting at them. Condemn the act, but stay on message.
These days my default explanation after a mass shooting is "loser seeking posthumous fame via an horrific act of violence" until there is evidence produced that says otherwise. I agree with Larry in that we do need to know certain details about this guy to hamper the GOP attempts at false narratives, but we could get all that without seeing his image or even hearing his name.
It would be a great time for Trump to STFU with his violent rhetoric, but we know better.
I'm not sure it counts as "universally condemned" when one Republican (McConnell) says the right thing, but many other Republicans accuse President Biden of causing the shooting with inflammatory language, "forgetting" the inflammatory language that Trump's whole appeal is based on.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/13/trump-shooting-blame-biden-democrats/
...
The shooting Saturday was universally condemned by political leaders, with former president Barack Obama (D), Vice President Harris (D), Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and many others releasing statements condemning the violence.
“As one whose family has been the victim of political violence, I know firsthand that political violence of any kind has no place in our society,” former House speaker and member of Congress Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a statement. “I thank God that former President Trump is safe.”
Pelosi’s husband, Paul, was attacked in his home by a hammer-wielding assailant in an act of political violence. Last year, at an event in California, Trump made light of that attack. “How’s her husband doing by the way? Does anyone know?” he said to laughs, in reference to Paul Pelosi’s injuries from the attacks.
Other Trump supporters were quick to blame Biden and the media for the shooting Saturday, despite a lack of information about the shooter’s motives.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) pointed to the “bull’s eye” comment by Biden earlier in the week.
“Joe Biden sent the orders,” Collins wrote on X. He later added, “The Republican District Attorney in Butler County, Pa., should immediately file charges against Joe Biden for inciting an assassination.”
...
“Joe Biden sent the orders,” Collins wrote on X. He later added, “The Republican District Attorney in Butler County, Pa., should immediately file charges against Joe Biden for inciting an assassination.”
Not according to that recent SCOTUS ruling.
@Flypusher,
I sense a kindred spirit. Or at least one who thinks I'm making sense.
I'm currently on the last chapter of a book called, "Look Again: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There." The title makes it sound like a self-help book, which is a genre I don't generally bother with. Sturgeon's Law is an underestimate in that area. I heard an interview with the authors, which made it clear that the focus of the book is habituation and dishabituation, processes that are of pretty major significance in humans (and the rest of the Kingdom).
I'm brining this up now because it bears on the moment. The penultimate chapter is titled "Tyranny" and a lot of it talks about how the Nazi Era didn't start out with executions and slave labor right away. In 1935 Nazi officers marched around Jewish-owned businesses, and the owners were reportedly offended, not terrified. Tyranny is something that tends to creep up slowly, not come on suddenly. They start out with small injustices, and as those become commonplace, the people habituate to them. Then the tyrants ramp it up a little, and a little more, and a little more. Hitler didn't start sending Jewish people, Roma, even gay people to the camps at first. First he signed an order to allow doctors to euthanize the mentally handicapped, and sterilize Jewish people involuntarily. It took a few years to ramp it up to full-on genocide. Hitler came to power in '33, but Kristallnacht didn't happen until five years later.
As his idol, Mussolini, once said, "Acquiring power is best done like plucking a chicken, one feather at a time."
What feathers can we identify in recent American history? Certainly Newt Gingrich's notorious 1990 memo to Congressional Republicans was a huge feather. It seems to me that the more of these feathers we can identify, the better equipped we are to counter the propaganda of the fascists.
Paul SB
$7 and #34. Though if you go be departments, much higher: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-the-worlds-top-100-universities-by-country/
Stage Right is a stage direction meant for the ACTORS.
ALL the MAGA dopes' screams should be met with wager demands re compared levels and numbers of threats and people dead from radical violence.
Mahr as usual is only partially tuned in. Obliviation of the perp's name comes AFTER trial or investigation, as the ultimate punishment. We deserve to know everything till then.
Someone reported something's wrong with the blog. Anyone notice anything? Alfred, Larry email if you can't get in?
The inflammatory language seems to have come from Alex Jones
https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1812460546236518607
Macho?
This is the guy who used fake bone spurs to escape duty in Vietnam.
Flypusher:
Yes, the Dems are calling Trump a threat to democracy, but, 1) they are 100% correct,
Ever since Trump, if not before, it's been a Republican strategy to be so egregious that describing accurately what they do is considered impolite and incendiary. Their treason is not considered as great a crime as our accusing them of treason.
If the shoe were on the other foot--if, say, Hillary Clinton actually did eat babies--would they consider it an unforgivable breach of etiquette to accuse her of eating babies because that might inspire some nutjob to shoot up a pizza parlor? I didn't think so.
Dr Brin:
Someone reported something's wrong with the blog. Anyone notice anything?
No problem now, or any time I tried to post today. Can't speak to other times.
The text of DP's Alex Jones link, in case anyone wonders why the shooter might be a right-winger qua right-winger.
5 months ago, Alex Jones and InfoWars guest Ivan Raiklin discussed how assassinating Trump would be beneficial, according to them, because it would lead to retaliatory “in kind” assassinations of a “deep state” list which includes President Joe Biden.
Ivan Raiklin: “If they [assassinate Trump], option 2, behind Trump, is going to be so much better for us and so much worse them.”
Alex Jones: “I was about as to say, If they kill him, that’s best case scenario from a sick level. From a sick level medium, ‘Oh, please kill him.’ I mean, it’s so good after that.”
Raiklin: “Oh, it’s going to be the best cleansing and the fastest cleansing that we’ve ever seen in my lifetime. I guaran—, I access, with almost certainty, with the highest level of confidence, that if they assassinate Trump, it is so game over for them.”
DP:
Macho?
This is the guy who used fake bone spurs to escape duty in Vietnam.
Yes, but remember that gonorrhea was his Vietnam War. :)
Hmmm, it does look like one of my just now posts did disappear.
I had responded to Flypusher about Democrats calling Trump a fascist being 100% correct, and said that it's a Republican strategy to act so egregiously that the accurate description of what they are doing is considered worse than the transgression itself.
Then I posited a counterfactual concerning Secretary Clinton, which is what might have caused the post to be removed.
Dr. Brin,
I looked at the top 100 universities you posted (I was frankly surprised that Holland was on the list at all), then from there checked out graduation rates by state (U.S.) and was surprised to see that the highest was West Virginia at 91%. Many of the states with the highest graduation rates have the poorest schools, so it seems like graduation rate is not a very useful indicator by itself. Diploma mills.
Visual Capitalist is a great source, though, as a general rule.
Paul SB
One possible reason for the dodgy aim:
A local law enforcement officer climbed to the roof and found [thatguy123], who pointed the rifle at the officer. The officer retreated down the ladder, and the gunman quickly fired toward Trump, the officials said. That’s when U.S. Secret Service gunmen shot him, the officials said.
Apart from the obvious consequences, being shot at is just one person's opinion, and should have no bearing on your election chances.
That said, I'm more concerned about the people who seem willing to roll over and throw in the towel because Trump got nicked than I am about any tsunamis of outrage tearing the country apart.
Grim aside: the next episode of 'House of the Dragon' is due to drop soon.
Let's see if this post survives...
https://rudepundit.blogspot.com/2024/07/donald-trump-still-sucks.html
...
So, okay, fine, take a day or two, Democrats, to act like mensches. And then get right the fuck back to tearing Trump down. Despite what Vance and other syphilitic Republican whores say, we're all calling Trump a dictator and fascist because he said he's going to be a dictator and supports fascist policies. He's mused about changing when elections are held and "joked" about serving beyond a second term if he's elected, undermining our democratic system repeatedly. Fucker wants to round up millions of people working in this country, including children, and put them in camps. It's his big plan this time around. That's what authoritarians do. We're not making this shit up. We're listening to what Trump and his policy people say.
Fuck sympathy. I guarantee Trump'll be saying how Biden and "the Deep State" conspired to have him killed (leaving out, of course, that the Supreme Court said that Biden could totally do that). A thoughtful, reflective man might grow and change, evolve, even, after an incident like this. That is not Trump. He screamed, "Fight!" repeatedly after. He wanted his idiot hordes to riot for him, like he has before. I'd be shocked beyond shocked if he didn't continue in that vein.
I don't want Donald Trump to be murdered. I want him to lose the election so we can begin to purge his poisonous movement from our political system. I want him to go to prison for the very real crimes he committed and to have to pay the hundreds of millions of dollars in judgments he owes. I want him to have to live in disgrace and infamy for years before dying. Let's make sure that happens.
(Note: I don't buy the idea that this was a false flag or some other conspiracy you're hearing from the left. Trump's not that good an actor. I do think it's hilarious to call it a false flag just to piss off MAGA goons who call every mass shooting that.)
Anyone living near LA (Alfred?) want an old roll top desk?
Actually, for the Democrats, it could be a beneficial outcome that Trump was missed.
First of all, if he had been hit, he would have been replaced by a younger and maybe more stable person - like Nikki Haley, de Santis, or even maybe Invanka Trump - who would have more appeal for the independents. Regardless of the person, Project 2025 would still be in play, but any concerns washed away in mourning, grief, rage and the like.
Second, the outrage about this event might be forgotten in a month or so, unlike it would have been after he had been killed. There are still three and a half months to go, and a lot can happen in this time.
Third, any professional attempt - as our host has indicated a few times - might be postponed, delayed, called off - or hindered by increased Secret Service measures (they are unlikely to allow a second security blunder of this size).
Heh. No thank you. I picked up a giant banker's desk many years ago and have lugged it around through several moves. Drawers on both sides, cigarette burns, and HEAVY. (Love it.)
Der Oger:
Actually, for the Democrats, it could be a beneficial outcome that Trump was missed.
For one thing, if he had been killed, it would have been open season on Democratic politicians.
Seeming more like "frustrated loner lashes out at local crowd" than anything politically motivated. More details in the non-firewalled link, although you'd have to see the incel's name a few times.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul15-1.html
The picture so far seems to be of an outcast who was bullied and turned down by the clubs he tried to join. Maybe he wanted to show the world he was somebody and a pretty good shot after all. Trump just happened to show up near his house. If Biden had been the one to show up nearby, Crooks might have tried to assassinate Biden. Barring new information, the shooting doesn't appear to have been politically motivated. The outcome of the investigation might be something like: "Well, when anyone who wants to buy a military assault weapon can do so and their kids have access to them, this kind of stuff happens. Get used to it." But remember, all this is fragmentary and preliminary.
Also this...
The weapon he used to shoot at Trump was an AR-15-type semiautomatic The owner of the local gun store said that he did not sell the weapon to [expletive deleted]. But when a reporter asked if it was sold to a family member, such as his father, the store owner refused to answer. He said it was between him and God. Wrong. By later today, it will be between him, God, and the FBI. Unofficial reports say Crooks' father bought the gun 6 months ago.
Sadly, too true...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul15-2.html
Will there be protests {at the Republican convention] ? Yup, but far away. Milwaukee will be totally locked down and protesters have been assigned an area miles from the convention hall. There will be a heavy police presence throughout the city and any attempt by the protesters to get anywhere near the convention will be snuffed out by force very quickly. Besides, the protesters know that no number of protesters will have any effect at all on the Republicans. Instead, they are keeping their powder dry for the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where riots could have a huge impact—namely, electing Trump. That will teach the Democrats!
Der Oger: There are still three and a half months to go, and a lot can happen in this time.
DT, JB, and any other senior citizen would probably agree on this.
"there are weeks where decades happen" - Lenin
Larry, I want to clarify something with this statement:
I wouldn't be surprised if he shot and missed the target, but to hit close enough to graze (with an AR-15) and not do severe damage? Maybe God really did save Trump and let a spectator die instead, but otherwise, the sum of the angles of that rectangle are too numerous to contemplate.
A graze from an AR-15 isn't going to do any significant damage, because it's just a graze. There is no significant transfer of energy from the bullet. The damage would be roughly comparable to someone slashing with a knife and grazing the same location to the same depth.
The AR-15 platform comes in a variety if different calibers, but the two most common by far are the 5.5x45mm NATO standard cartridge, and the civilian equivalent .223 Remmington (technically they are different cartridges, but they're almost identical, the 5.56 just has a hire chamber pressure). That bullet is just 5.56 millimeters (or .223 inch in Freedom Units) in diameter, and roughly 4 times as long (depends a bit on the specific type of bullet). Unless it directly hits enough tissue and/or bone, there isn't really any mechanism to transfer its kinetic energy to the target. The bullet passing thru the air next to someone won't rip them apart or do any damage to them unless the bullet actually contacts them.
Not even a .50 BMG from an M2 heavy machine gun will do that (Mythbusters actually proved that, putting a .50 BMG round from a .50 caliber rifle down a line of glass plates lined up with a hairsbredth to spare, and the glass panes suffered no damage).
On the undoubtedly-soon-to-be-historical photo of the bullet, what we see in that image probably wasn't the bullet itself, but the vapor trail of the air condensing around it as it passed by at supersonic speeds.
As for the accuracy of the shooter, Trump only survived because he moved his head a second before the shot. If he hadn't moved his head when he did, that bullet would have been a headshot and not a graze. He should have bought a lottery ticket that day.
As Dr. Brin and others noted, the follow up shots were rushed and probably panicked, and missed because of that. There was a long enough delay while Trump was trying to figure out what just bit his ear that a calm follow up shot would have ended him.
I'm not a secret service agent, I can't speak to the quality of job they did, and I'm always skeptical of supposed experts and inside perspectives that seem to come out of the woodwork the instant something happens to provide their 5-second snapshot armchair opinions.
But administering the security and force protection program for high value assets is one part of my day job, and I will say this: No security setup is 100% perfect or infallible. Every attack ever made has a non-zero chance of succeeding. Security is partly about reducing those chances, and partly about detering them from being made in the first place (the only way to ensure an attack is guaranteed to fail is to ensure it never happens in the first place).
Security is about inconveniencing the enemy to the maximum extent possible, ideally to the point that they don't even bother trying. But the more inconvenienced your adversary is, often times the more inconvenienced you are, so it becomes a balancing act.
And complacency kills security.
scidata:
"there are weeks where decades happen"
I've been telling my daughter since she could talk that "The first 20 years are the longest. By the third 20 years, they go by like *snap*."
At 22 years old herself now, she said she's starting to understand what I meant.
* * *
She also just texted an image of a button reading, "I really wish I weren't living through a major historical event right now!"
I've often remarked to her that, "It's not always like this," to which she finally retorted, "It is in my lifetime."
as Bremer, who stalked Nixon, but then got the opportunity to shoot Wallace. Perhaps Crooks did see himself as shooting a Howard Beale, a Mad Prophet of the airwaves.
Trump appeared onstage 40 miles from Crooks’ home; Crooks saw an opportunity to take out a mad prophet and took it, maybe thinking he’d receive thirty years—as Hinckley did.
Ilithi Dragon:
"I wouldn't be surprised if he shot and missed the target, but to hit close enough to graze (with an AR-15) and not do severe damage?"
A graze from an AR-15 isn't going to do any significant damage, because it's just a graze
First of all, it's always good to hear from you.
Yes, while I was trying not to prematurely comment about the shooter's motive, I had no trouble opining on aspects that looked implausible. I realize and realized at the time that things would change as facts and analysis came in.
That said, my disbelief was that the shooter could have intentionally wounded without killing him, as a false flag. Even for a special forces marksman, that would seem to be too difficult to attempt.
Alan Brooks:
Perhaps [expletive deleted] did see himself as shooting a Howard Beale, a Mad Prophet of the airwaves.
From what I'm hearing this morning, this was more of a "routine mass shooting" from a kid who was bullied in school. With the caveat that more information will surely come out, I'm starting to wonder if the shooter cared about DJT at all. He was primarily shooting up a gathering of members of the community he had a grudge against.
* * *
In that vein, while I don't expect J.D. Vance or any other Republicans to take back or apologize for their remarks, I do think the "Biden gave the order" arguments will quietly go the way of John Roberts's vows to track down the Dobbs decision leaker. At best, this was not political at all. But if political rhetoric is to be blamed, which party and which candidate is in favor of both guns and bullying? Just sayin'.
Breaking news according to the Stephanie Miller radio show.
Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed Trump's classified documents case, claiming that the appointment of the special prosecutor was unconstitutional.
Trump: “a miracle” “I’m supposed to be dead.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-rally-shooting-live-updates-trump-says-doctor-called-his-survival-a-miracle-fbi-still-investigating-shooters-motives-202636490.html
Or was it luck of the devil?
Breaking news according to the Stephanie Miller radio show.
Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed Trump's classified documents case, claiming that the appointment of the special prosecutor was unconstitutional.
This month just keeps getting worse. But I can't say I'm shocked, as these corrupt judges took off their masks long ago. I'll assume there will be an appeal, not that it matters in trying the case before the election, but maybe getting this awful corrupt judge removed?
As I said before, brazenly corrupt people like this "judge" sorely test my resolve to be civilized and play by the rules. Also the fact that so many people appear indifferent to such outrages frustrates me immensely. We still have to power to stop this.
Alan: "Or was it luck of the devil?"
Maybe.
Revelations 13
3 One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, but the fatal wound had been healed. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the beast. 4 People worshiped the dragon because he had given authority to the beast, and they also worshiped the beast and asked, “Who is like the beast? Who can wage war against it?”
Or was it luck of the devil?
Where I a religiously inclined person, I would say that Trump is God's punishment for America'a many sins, and even then God is giving us every chance to avoid that punishment by rejecting Trumpism and its hate. It really is a simple test.
Could the dragon be China,
and the beast be the Tsar?:
https://biblehub.com/revelation/13-4.htm
Larry,
"I do think it's hilarious to call it a false flag just to piss off MAGA goons who call every mass shooting that."
- That was exactly the point. Another opportunity to point out their hypocrisy.
Paul SB
Ugh. Revelations backfitting.
As if we don't have enough sh*t to deal with lately. 8/
If Trump's ear piercing was divine providence, then the Holy One sent a mixed message. The bullet didn't kill Trump: that says one thing. The bullet drew blood: that says another thing. Is God letting Trump off this time, but with a warning?
I think the picture forming is that the shooter was a bullied emo incel gunboy committing suicide by Secret Service. Welcome back to high school, folks, and behold the effects of an ill-regulated militia. It's a national security problem.
Paradoctor:
It's a national security problem.
A separate issue that this calls attention to is that (from recent accounts) a policeman was told about the man (kid) climbing the roof and went up there to confront him. The cop had to back down when looking into the muzzle of an assault rifle. It was then that the killer hurriedly got off his shots until he was taken down by a Secret Service sniper.
Shades of Uvalde.
Now, I'm not going to claim I know I'd have done any better in the policeman's place. What I will say is that we have a national problem when law-enforcement is routinely outgunned by lawbreakers.
There is no honor among Crooks.
Larry,
"From what I'm hearing this morning, this was more of a "routine mass shooting" from a kid who was bullied in school."
Right. Okay. Attempting to avoid speculation.
Let's take the conclusion that person # attempted to assassinate Trump with AR style rifle and work backwards with the facts about # established by mainstream media reporting.
# was bullied almost every day in school.
# was registered Republican and per high school classmate, hung out with kids who wore Trump hats
# was smart, got scholarship in math and science and had just earned an associate degree.
# worked at at nursing home.
# was son of social workers
# donated $15 dollars to political action committee in 2021
(certainly this couldn't have been done by his mother (Registered Democrat) in his name.)
# had membership to a shooting club
# had access to approximately $750 AR style rifle
Out of the 8 items, which two are undeniably relevant to the conclusion that # used an AR style rifle to shoot a hole through Trump's ear from about 100m?
Count how many times the GOP mentions or pivots from those two relevant items.
Can't avoid being speculative, but assuming the goal for # was an assassination, which of these possible objectives would be most certain to be met in the aftermath?
a. civil war / violent chaos.
b. a new, more extreme Republican ticket.
c. making people who bullied him in high school angry.
d. getting his head blown off by SS snipers.
For people choosing narrative (c) why would # not target the bullies or the crowd? Also if # anticipated (d) wouldn't that just give the bullies satisfaction?
It also appears the breakdown in security was in coordination and communication between the local law enforcement outside the SS perimeter.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/us/video/shooter-seen-by-attendees-one-minute-before-trump-shot-digvid
As the eye-witness dude in the BBC interview wearing the fake orange hair visor pointed out in the video Dr. B shared, if anyone in law enforcement was aware of this why wouldn't SS be contacted immediately and speech ended? Also, based on what visor dude said, the video above would be outside the security perimeter.
Teela Brown comes to mind.
Slim Moldie:
For people choosing narrative (c) why would # not target the bullies or the crowd?
I'm not convinced that he wasn't doing just that. Not that he aimed at particular individuals from that distance, but that he simply shot into the crowd as most mass-shooters do. They're going to hit someone after all.
My point is that it's looking less like an act of political violence and more like a "normal mass shooting" (irony intended) for which Trump was simply the reason there was a crowd of locals available to shoot at. I'm not clear if you're agreeing, disputing, or something else.
Slim Moldie:
Also if # anticipated (d) wouldn't that just give the bullies satisfaction?
That's the usual ending to a mass shooting by a bullied loner. His plan is to do as much damage as possible before the inevitable end.
The surviving bullies will have had a taste of fear and "know what it's like". And the non-surviving ones won't get satisfaction one way or another.
re: security breakdown.
On the afternoon of Jan 6, Trump was frustrated that it was taking too long to get his crowd through the metal detectors for his White House rally. (Perhaps he also didn't want the crowd disarmed?). Reportedly, he tried to have the magnetometers taken down, saying, "They're not here to hurt me."
I wonder if the secret service and law-enforcement have consciously or unconsciously bought into that way of thinking--that anyone attending a Trump rally would not be there to harm the former president. A man on a nearby rooftop might have seemed to be a Kyle Rittenhouse.
Larry,
I wonder if the secret service and law-enforcement have consciously or unconsciously bought into that way of thinking--
I doubt it. Professionals would understand that Two Scoops presents an opportunity to "deliver a message." There are many kinds of messages ranging from politically sensible ones to chaotic ones.
It's usually the non-professionals who downplay their security risks. That is what Two Scoops did on Jan 6. I suspect he will stop doing that now... but he might not if he drinks the Divine Intervention koolaide.
A malignant narcissist like Trump will only get worse (see how Hitler responded to the July 20th bomb plot).
His paranoia just went up to 11.
Ilithi Dragon is always welcome here. Terrifically cogent contributions, Craig.
Despite presumed lack of courage, ducking back when faced with Crook’s rifle muzzle - (and who am I to judge? Comparisons to Uvalde may be very unfair) - the cop who interrupted Crook likely saved DT’s life by causing the shooter to hurry.
Anyway, I hope the city fathers shout this to DT: “THIS time will you actually pay your bill for city services, unlike everywhere else you stiff?”
Slim M: “# donated $15 dollars to political action committee in 2021
(certainly this couldn't have been done by his mother (Registered Democrat) in his name.)”
This one has been debunked. It was a 69 year old with the same name.
Moving on… I’ve explained why Nikki Haley would be the best VP choice politically and electorally… and Two Scoops would have to be suicidal to do it. She’s under the thumbs of oligarchy, not Trump personally.
But there’s someone else my wife says could fit the bill, because he could control her and the oligarchs might fear her. Tulsi Gabbard.
Re biblical stuff. Every generation in the West has seen books come out connecting every sentence in Revelation to figures of the day. Napoleon, Lincoln, FDR, Stalin, Martin Luther…
the Vegas massacre perp left little in the way of clues, all that is known is that he had lost a large sum by gambling.
We can’t expect to learn much about Crooks’ motives, either.
Has anyone noticed that the Time Magazine photo added an American flag behind Trump where he's doing his Mussolini fist? The flag wasn't there in any other picture.
https://time.com/6998527/trump-shooting-attempted-assassination-photos-journalism/
Paul SB
On another topic, I'm only sticking with Designated Survivor season 3 to see how the bioterrorism plot turns out. I have no interest in the re-election campaign, and if the show was real life, I wouldn't be voting for Kirkman.
Plus, I get that people swear in real life, but it's really getting annoying and calling attention to itself in ways that good writing shouldn't. The dialogue is approaching something a middle-schooler would find funny to get away with.
"Not sure what JD Vance brings to Trump's campaign."
I'm wondering if he agreed to pardon Trump if Trump agreed to resign. I know that the charges in GA wouldn't be covered, but the GOP can probably gum that up for the rest of Trump's life.
Not sure what JD Vance brings to Trump's campaign.
He doesn't' exactly expand Trump's base.
Don't get me wrong, I kinda like Vance.
I read "Hillbilly Elegy" its a good book.
Been disappointed though.
He's spent most of his time in the senate kissing Trumps arse.
Not what I expected from a marine.
Or maybe Trump needs at least one person on the ticket that people will assume has integrity because he was a marine.
Okay so much for assuming hewas lying about the top 4, or that he'd judo to a woman. I do know that neither he nor the oligarchs would allow a person on whom they did not have blackmail kompromat.
DP:
I read "Hillbilly Elegy" its a good book.
From what I've read, Vance has changed completely from that time frame into a full-on Trumpist. Kind of like the Warlord of Kalgan becoming the Mule's viceroy.
What he'll bring to the campaign is plenty of fodder for the Democrats and Lincoln Project to include old videos of him denouncing Trump. Of course, the MAGAts will believe that those are AI-generated fake news.
Maye this explains Trump choosing Vance.
https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2024/06/28/ohio-senator-j-d-vance-accused-of-playing-putins-game/
Ohio senator J.D. Vance accused of playing Putin’s game
J.D. Vance is a leading critic of U.S. support for Ukraine
Dr Brin:
...blackmail kompromat.
That would certainly help explain the transition from Trump critic to Trump toady.
Dr Brin:
or that he'd judo to a woman.
Or a black man.
I win the right to say "I told you so" on that one.
If Trump's ear piercing was divine providence, then the Holy One sent a mixed message. The bullet didn't kill Trump: that says one thing. The bullet drew blood: that says another thing. Is God letting Trump off this time, but with a warning?
I think he will interpret it like Wendy Byrde did in Ozark: it is a sign that he is untouchable, and can get away with anything. :(
"What he'll bring to the campaign is plenty of fodder for the Democrats and Lincoln Project to include old videos of him denouncing Trump. Of course, the MAGAts will believe that those are AI-generated fake news."
Will it matter to the people on the fence? As for Vance, one of the side effects of selling your soul is that the hypocrisy no longer burns. I respect Vance's intelligence but I also hold him in contempt as a 2-faced sellout who never met an ethical principle that he wouldn't kick to the curb for power. Project 2025 would be a horror show for all those folks he wrote about in his book.
A.F.Rey:
But he was touched. Unless he gets plastic surgery, he'll have a hole in his ear for the rest of his life. The mirror will remind him.
Paradoc. The narrative is already that he was touched by Jesus. And that scar will be his stigmata... sign of grace.
So, any takes on who touched Vance before Donald?
The same line of severe weather heading for me also looks like it will slam Milwaukee. We might see how "untouchable" Trump actually is.
An appropriate rant:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOnAUjXH7P8&t=79s
But he was touched. Unless he gets plastic surgery, he'll have a hole in his ear for the rest of his life. The mirror will remind him.
There is a somewhat archaic term in German - Schlitzohr, literally Sliced Ear (a form of medieval punishment, I believe) - used for rogues, thieves and tricksters. Just saying.
Dr. Brin:
I get that double-think goes way back. But I still wonder how a guy's touched by Jesus when he's the poster boy for pride, wrath, envy, gluttony, avarice, lust, and sloth. Up is down, slavery is freedom, the seven deadly sins are grace.
Flypusher:
As for Vance, one of the side effects of selling your soul is that the hypocrisy no longer burns.
I don't expect it to. I expect it to sow division between Trump and his VP.
@Larry
For one thing, if he had been killed, it would have been open season on Democratic politicians.
Won't that the case anyway, if Trump loses or wins in November? The quality may be different, though.
Der Oger:
For one thing, if he had been killed, it would have been open season on Democratic politicians.
Won't that the case anyway, if Trump loses or wins in November?
I think more of his less-rabid supporters would feel justified enough to cross that line had he been murdered, especially if they believed "the left" had done the deed.
No matter what, they'll do their worst. Let's do our best.
Paradoctor:
Up is down, slavery is freedom, the seven deadly sins are grace
Yep. Trump is proof that Jesus can forgive anything. Even not believing in Him.
Paradoctor:
No matter what, they'll do their worst. Let's do our best.
In Cerebus terms, let's do what we were going to do anyway, no matter what Lord Julius says.
* * *
@Dr Brin,
For what it's worth, a small number of my posts have disappeared after they first did appear.
Weird that rumpt was boasting of the wounds he'd suffered a few weeks earlier, and now he's really got one. I'm not sure Der Oger is right about notching criminals' ears in the middle ages, but cropping (removing) ears definitely was. Too bad it doesn't have the same connotation in English these days.
Gotten serious enough out there that I'm starting the process of getting passports for my trans daughter and her spouse. I've been thinking "35-40% chance rumpt wins*" for a long time, but these past 2 weeks makes me recalibrate that no-one, not even political scientists, has a clue where we'll be by Guy Fawkes' Day - funny that the recent UK election was on our Independence Day.
Romans running for office used to show off their battle scars to the public, but I think only Cpt. Jenkins used to go around flaunting his ear...
*which by itself is a scathing indictment of my country
Pappenheimer
Dr. Brin,
I think I lost a post or 2 as well, but with my short term memory what it is, can't be sure. I can still remember my deceased WV grandparents' phone number, though, and the corps commanders at Gettysburg. For all the good that does.
Pappenheimer
Larry Hart 5:20 PM:
Consider this poem by Rudyard Kipling:
The Disciple
He that hath a Gospel
To loose upon Mankind,
Though he serve it utterly —
Body, soul and mind —
Though he go to Calvary
Daily for its gain —
It is His Disciple
Shall make his labour vain.
He that hath a Gospel
For all earth to own —
Though he etch it on the steel,
Or carve it on the stone —
Not to be misdoubted
Through the after-days —
It is His Disciple
Shall read it many ways.
It is His Disciple
(Ere Those Bones are dust)
Who shall change the Charter,
Who shall split the Trust —
Amplify distinctions,
Rationalize the Claim;
Preaching that the Master
Would have done the same.
It is His Disciple
Who shall tell us how
Much the Master would have scrapped
Had he lived till now —
What he would have modified
Of what he said before.
It is His Disciple
Shall do this and more....
He that hath a Gospel
Whereby Heaven is won
(Carpenter, or cameleer,
Or Maya's dreaming son),
Many swords shall pierce Him,
Mingling blood with gall;
But His Own Disciple
Shall wound Him worst of all!
Pappenheimer:
not even political scientists, has a clue where we'll be by Guy Fawkes' Day - funny that the recent UK election was on our Independence Day.
"How much longer can I go on being an atheist?"
I can still remember my deceased WV grandparents' phone number, though
I remember my dad's office number from the 1960s. And the names of all my teachers up to 5th grade. Oh, and the birthdates of women who will never actually be my girlfriend.
Some things become so much a part of one's essential being that I suspect they would survive reincarnation (or dittoing).
In Cerebus terms, I remember the retort to the caped moron Roach, which we all may find useful if 2024 ends badly:
Roach: "I'll be watching you."
Chico Marx stand-in: "Make sure you tell me when I do something wrong, so I can pay attention and enjoy it."
Larry, did you realize someone made a Cerebus movie? Been a long time since I wiki'd the 'vark.
Pappenheimer
Der Oger,
Over here that term gets interpreted as 'sly fox' which we shall likely NOT want to have anyone assign to Two Scoops.
However, I am NOW tempted to call him Old Nick. 8)
The cult of 'Old Nick'.
Projection. Every time:
Johnson (a while ago): "Unless the president is reading off a teleprompter, I don't think he's capable of making these big decisions."
Johnson(today): "It is now.. my honour.. to introduce.. the Attorney-General.. and there goes the teleprompter."
(walks off-stage without actually naming the Attorney-General.)
Red Nick would do. 8)
Paradoctor says... Let's do our best.
Here, here!
(raises a pint)
“I think more of his less-rabid supporters would feel justified enough to cross that line had he been murdered, especially if they believed "the left" had done the deed.”
What have I been predicting for 6 months? Putin’s utter best outcome is NOT getting his asset back into the White House. Look in DT’s eyes. Look at Project 2025. Trump II will NOT be like Trump 1.0. When DC has gone fully brown shirt, he will fret about Putin’s blackmail kompromat as much as Hitler curried favor with Prussian Junkers aristocrats, after he got the generals to have all soldiers swear the Hitler Oath.
From that point on, the lordly ‘von’ guys were his bitches and so will be Vlad and his cadre of ‘ex’ commissars.
Want to know what Two Scoops will do, if he regains control over nukes? Watch Angela Lansbury’s vengeful soliloquy in the last half hour of THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE.
No, Putin will have zero leverage, no matter how many sleazy videos he has on Don. He will be DT’s bitch. And if Vlad has any sense, he fears that outcome as much as Biden. More.
What Vlad and the oligarchs need is for Two Scoops to melt away in the best possible way, triggering hot US civil war, WHILE installing in the Oval Office a new, smoother blackmailed asset.
--
The unbelievable polemical inability of dems to use simple images… like the Trumps boredly ignoring the Apostle’s Creed while Obamas, Clintons and Carters and Bidens all recited it by heart….
Elon Musk plans to give $45 million a month to a pro-Trump PAC that is focused on boosting GOP turnout.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/15/elon-musk-trump-super-pac''
There are no good billionaires.
Hi Matthew
That was a Wall St Journal article - so far Musk has not contributed anything and has said that he is not going to
Articles about Musk or Tesla from the mainstream media are often a load of complete bollocks
duncan cairncross:
Fog of culture-war.
Alfred Differ:
"He'll do his worst, let's do our best."
There I am paraphrasing something Winston Churchill said about He Who Is Over-Cited.
In my poem "Rap Battle: Big Brother versus Miss Liberty" (available upon request) the goddess fleers to the demon:
You brag and diss and threaten? Fine!
But I am I, and I am mine!
So do your worst, I'll do my best
And I, not you, will pass the test.
For I am bright, and you're a jerk.
No plan of yours will ever work.
Your bureaucrats all reek of booze,
Your cops go bats, your armies lose.
As an ex-WXman, it's chilling to read the current Stross comments about the likely outcomes of unabated AGW, which is one of the most predictable results of a rumpt win by hook, crook, or outright national insanity. My dad is heavily invested in petrochem and assumes all those companies' oil and coal holdings have value - which means they will be burned within a hundred years. Their effect on the atm co2 level would be - and here I am not exaggerating - apocalyptic. Climatologists are admitting they have probably underestimated the speed of change.
The fact that renewables are swiftly overtaking fossil carbon is seen as government warping of the free market - though my brother pointed out that Shell is taking some steps that might be seen as not just greenwashing. I can imagine fossil fuel subsidies being increased beyond even what they are now and attempts to legislate away any attempt to do anything else. It won't really be a free market (though it never really was.)
There were likely be some frantic attempts at local mitigation in the next 50-100 years, and I am happy to know I will not be around for some of the side effects of the more ill-advised schemes.
Pappenheimer, who has read way to much history to worry about whether the glass is half full or not. The question is, what's the toxicity of the liquid?
*too much history, and apparently not enough grammar books
Pappenheimer
Also, for those of us who are reminded of Hari Seldon by...well, nearly everything, here comes 'cliodynamics', and a critique:
https://acoup.blog/2021/10/15/fireside-friday-october-15-2021/
or, how humans are not gas molecules.
Pappenheimer
Essence of that fireside piece: Such complex causation defies general laws
Being reminded of Hari Seldon doesn't necessarily make one a Hari Seldon disciple. Putting modesty aside for a moment is something every thinker should do occasionally to remain honest. So, as I've said before, Isaac Asimov (and a few others) could have greatly benefitted from a 10 minute chat avec moi. Not because I'm smart, but because I'm different. You have to listen to different people if you're ever going to break out of academic silos and delusional bubbles (or break into them in my case). Fortunately, I speak the language of rationality*, so there's enough common ground for fruitful discussion (not even dialectic, just some plain understanding).
Asimov was sniffing around computers and computation in a very big way in the 1980s. At one time I had a rather large Tandy collection mainly due to his influence. I could have at least taught him some transistor theory and basic soldering skills to get some dirt under his fingernails.
From my 2011 article "Future Psychohistory":
There is not as yet (and may never be) a set of formulae that can chart humanity's course as in Foundation. However, it may soon be possible to accurately model a form of psychohistory computationally.
* no small trick for a farmboy raised in fundamentalist religion. I agree with the Temujin argument, and Asimov himself had some leaning that way too. Ideal Gas Law was his 'principle of equivalence' moment, but not his entire arc of psychohistory thinking.
Tony Fisk:
Johnson(today): "It is now.. my honour.. to introduce.. the Attorney-General.. and there goes the teleprompter."
I'm not sure if I would have watched the RNC even if we weren't under the biggest tornado warning I've ever seen in northern Illinois.
Was Merrick Garland at the convention?
And did they lose the teleprompter because of the same line of thunderstorms up in Milwaukee?
(walks off-stage without actually naming the Attorney-General.)
Merrick Garland? He couldn't remember that name?
From memory, quoting The Fountainhead:
"Hey, Toohey. You have so many people shoot at you that you can't remember their names?"
scidata:
Being reminded of Hari Seldon doesn't necessarily make one a Hari Seldon disciple.
For all that sci-fi inspires us to think about, it is sometimes useful to remember that it is still fiction. Hari Seldon isn't real, like Hannibal Lecter.
I said:
Hari Seldon isn't real, like Hannibal Lecter.
Ambiguity intended. :)
@Larry it's not my habit to watch the RNC either. That one was courtesy of AOC.
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Me: Told ya.
That one guy in every social media thread: I think it's going to be Nikki Haley.
Me: Trump has announced it's Vance.
Guy: Pretty sure he's going to pick Haley.
Me: It's Vance.
Guy: Haley brings the brown woman vote. And also...
Me: IT'S FUCKING VANCE. J.D. VANCE. TURN ON YOUR TV.
Guy: Agree to disagree.
Tony Fisk:
@Larry it's not my habit to watch the RNC either.
I wasn't criticizing. Just explaining why I didn't know the referent about the attorney general.
My wife points out that it was probably the Wisconsin attorney general being introduced, not Merrick Garland. Which renders my earlier comment moot, but is more plausible. I wouldn't know his name without a teleprompter either.
So why did the Teamster President stab Biden in the back?
A guy goes into a bar, there's a robot bartender. The robot says, "What will you have?" The guy says, "Martini." The robot brings back the best martini ever and says to the man, "What's your IQ?" The guy says, "168." The robot then proceeds to talk about physics, space exploration, and medical technology.
The guy leaves, but he is curious. So he goes back into the bar. The robot bartender says, "What will you have?" The guy says, "Martini." Again, the robot makes a great martini, gives it to the man and says, "What's your IQ?" The guy says, "100." The robot then starts to talk about NASCAR, Budweiser, and John Deere tractors.
The guy leaves but finds it very interesting, so he thinks he will try it one more time. He goes back into the bar. The robot says, "What will you have?" The guy says, "Martini," and the robot brings him another great martini. The robot then says, "What's your IQ?" The guy says, "Uh, about 50." The robot leans in real close and says, "Isn’t it terrible the way Biden stole the election?"
It wasn't just the dropped name, but the notable.. hesitation at the.. end of each.. teleprompt line. (and having dissed Biden as being unable to function without a teleprompt.)
Irony of the week goes to the U.S. Concealed Carry Association, a vendor at the Republican Convention.
In an attempt to drum up interest in their organization, they are running a contest. One lucky attendee will get a free--absolutely free--AR-15 rifle!
The delegates must be lining up to enter... :D
https://politicalwire.com/2024/07/16/gop-convention-attendees-can-win-a-free-ar-15/
Tony Fisk:
and having dissed Biden as being unable to function without a teleprompt.)
Just another example of them accusing us of doing what they do.
They made the same teleprompter argument about President Obama, notwithstanding his handling of John Roberts flubbing the inauguration oath.
Paul SB:
...there's a robot bartender....
Thanks, man. That was actually funny.
With the latest developments in the presidential campaign I am reminded of the character, Jim Malone, in the movie, "The Untouchables", where he asks Ness repeatedly, "... what are you prepared to do?" Is Biden mean enough to take on the Asshole? He apologizes for using the phrase, "time to put Trump in a bullseye" when the other side repeats and condones similar language regardless of the consequences. Are the Democrats mean enough to stop turning the other cheek and listening to their better angels and to start using and employ better tactics that eight (thirty?) years ago would have been considered undignified and un-American? It is ironic that Clinton lost in 2016 in part because of the "scandal" of classified emails found on her private server. Today, the last defense judicial system allows a former President and felon to remove and hide top secret, paper(!) documents by using obfuscation and a "technicality". When is someone going to stand up and proclaim that the Asshole and his confederates are spies and traitors prepared to sell their country to the highest bidder as part of the art to steal in a deal with Putin?
Russel Osterlund:
Is Biden mean enough ...
Are the Democrats mean enough ...
No, perhaps unfortunately. But if they were, they'd be Republicans.
It's not an a-la-carte thing.
When is someone going to stand up and proclaim that the Asshole and his confederates are spies and traitors prepared to sell their country to the highest bidder as part of the art to steal in a deal with Putin?
Republican voters already know that and approve. To them, treason against the liberal-dominated deep state is no vice, and assholery is a feature, not a bug. They admire Putin for the same reason they admire Trump--unashamed meanness to the people that they all don't like.
And yet the race remains within the margin of error.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost
DP:
Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost
At some point, there's a ceiling. All an incident like that can do now is give those who already want to vote for him one more reason to vote for him. It doesn't increase the number of votes.
Humans aren't even remotely like an ideal gas. Strip away our intellect and we STILL aren't as our inclination to be social animals goes very deep.
Paradoctor,
Churchill. Got it. Even sounds right when I imagine your paraphrasing with his voice.
We may need to borrow one of your lines with a small twist depending on how the election goes...
"Your appointees all reek of vice"
Did anyone else notice that - during his sad-serious interlude about the shooting - Colbert quoted Asimov? "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
@larry there are certainly dems willing to call out Trump for what he is, Biden included. Even so, in a land with more AR-15s than Ukraine has Russian mines, 'microscope' would have been a better term than 'bullseye'. (Not that such considerations will give the projectionists pause.)
However, there are also dems willing to curl up and present as small a target as possible. Even throw the game. The calls for Biden to step down after one debate gaffe came suspiciously fast and easy. AOC invited whichever 'senior democrat' that said they were resigned to another term of Trump to retire and let some younger step up.
Tony Fisk:
'microscope' would have been a better term than 'bullseye'.
I don't recall the exact context now, but I thought the sense of President Biden's remark was meant along the lines of "Get the bullseye on Trump instead of on me as it is now."
* * *
Dr Brin:
Colbert quoted Asimov? "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
I didn't see the show, but if I had, I would have recognized the line.
AOC invited...
She is demonstrating leadership skills.
I'm impressed.
According to Beau of the 5th Column, who I do recommend on YT, there have more searches since July 3 on Google for Project 2025 than about Taylor Swift.
I don't know if the people doing this are liking or disliking what they find, but I suspect it doesn't bode ill for Democrats in general.
At the very list, more USians are becoming aware of what is planned for a rumpt win.
Pappenheimer
*least, not list. Damn, I used to proofread part time, too...
Pappenheimer
Pappenheimer:
*least, not list. Damn, I used to proofread part time, too...
Guess you're too old to be president.
Completely off the subject of poly ticks, someone on FacePalm asked me about the Fisher Temperament Inventory, so I explained it and linked to Dr. Fisher's site. I haven't looked at it in a long time, and saw that there is now a map that shows neurochemical dominance by state in the US. It's interesting to think about. That California and Colorado came out high in dopamine doesn't surprise me one bit, Minnesota and Montana sure do. You'll have to scroll down to the bottom to see the map, if you're curious.
Paul SB
Dr. Brin, if you don't like marmosets, would you try a tamarin? Remember, you're the one who said "all mammals."
Not positive yet it's relevant. But I'm pretty sure John Fogerty's* song is a reminder that crooks flock together. Better yet, make it JD (Putin-boy) Vance's song on the campaign trail! At minimum a fun old song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjpAYfCFmJ4
*(Credence Clearwater fame.)
PSB THAT's what you are up to? Cripes BET NOW whether even those males don't compete. Supposedly monogamous birds, the males try sneaky stuff all the time. Jeeeez.
Larry,
Too old to be a Democratic president, at least. Republican president only need to be able to scribble on a line when presented with a paper, like Reagan's last years in office.
Pappenheimer
P.S. I'm not sure violence is the LAST refuge of the incompetent. Methinks it ranks somewhat higher.
No, perhaps unfortunately. But if they were, they'd be Republicans.
It's not an a-la-carte thing.
It is not about being mean. It is about Popper's tolerance paradoxon: Do I have to be tolerant about people who won't be tolerant about me, if they were in power?
Do I have to tolerate extremists - of all shades - and allow them to replace democracy with an authoritarian system?
Where is the point another political party becomes a domestic enemy, or the constitution must be protected, as in the oath?
Democrats either have the means nor inclination to live the concept of defensive democracy, and I understand why Biden does not use his newfound powers. In the end, the outrage over planned atrocities of Project 2025 and Trumps own mistakes might ensure a blue victory. Yet, it remains a gamble, and looking at the polls, Trump currently leads by 102 electoral college votes.
me: As for Vance, one of the side effects of selling your soul is that the hypocrisy no longer burns.
Larry: I don't expect it to. I expect it to sow division between Trump and his VP.
Will it though? Donny2Scoops seems to take a special delight in former critics bending the knee. I won't say don't rub his nose in this particular hypocrisy, but rather don't expect much. Also don't neglect to fully use the more powerful political ammunition with other hypocrisies, such as the fact that his website recently underwent some scrubbing. What was it that he no longer wants you to see? This statement: " END ABORTION I am 100 percent pro-life, and believe that abortion has turned our society into a place where we see children as an inconvenience to be thrown away rather than a blessing to be nurtured. Eliminating abortion is first and foremost about protecting the unborn, but it's also about making our society more pro-child and pro-family. The historic Dobbs decision puts this new era of society into motion, one that prioritizes family and the sanctity of all life."
Such courage of his convictions!! He's also on the record as calling pregnancies resulting from rape/incest mere "inconveniences" and even worse, advocating for allowing police in states where abortion is outlawed to access women's private medical records so that they could bring charges against women who went out of state to get an abortion. Maybe relentlessly rubbing his nose in this will get through to some of the recalcitrant young voters. As with every other bad thing the GOP supports, they have the most to lose. These people would make women of child bearing age into 3rd class citizens or lower.
Also what's his record on policies that actually help poor families? Probably quite bad.
While these days amending the Constitution is practically impossible, there are 2 amendments I would back. First, I think it's time to add a privacy amendment to the Bill of Rights. There should be protections for things like your medical records and your genome sequence. Second, since our conservative SCOTUS members refuse to set a clear line between a President and a king, an anti-corruption amendment that clearly draws that line. Most amendments tend to be short and concise, but since these ratfuckers want to play stupid legal games, I'm for spelling out ALL the things that should be forbidden to all elected officials. Pardoning yourself? Forbidden. Pardoning someone in exchange for bribes/favors? Forbidden. Failing to separate from business interests that present a clear conflict of interest? Forbidden. Ordering your opponents murdered? Obviously forbidden, but Thomas and Alito can't seem to want to acknowledge that. Not disclosing your taxes and other relevant financial records? Forbidden. This amendment would probably be the longest one.
It is not about being mean. It is about Popper's tolerance paradoxon: Do I have to be tolerant about people who won't be tolerant about me, if they were in power?
Do I have to tolerate extremists - of all shades - and allow them to replace democracy with an authoritarian system?
No. I would consider anyone who actively tries to take away my rights as in breach of the social contract. That removes any obligation on me to extend tolerance to them.
JDV warns of 'corporate oligarchs' and 'cat-ladies' dragging America to hell. The projection and crazy - they burn. JB warns of the end any possibility of reaching the middle class for most, especially the young.
Advantage Dems.
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
This IS the RNC. Trump IS the Republican Party and the Republican Party is Trump. There's no daylight between the two. If you're a Republican, you're Trump. You're MAGA. Trump is what your party has become. That's who you are and what you support, whether enthusiastically or reluctantly. It's time you were honest with yourself.
Der Oger:
"No, perhaps unfortunately. But if they were, they'd be Republicans."
It is not about being mean. It is about Popper's tolerance paradoxon: Do I have to be tolerant about people who won't be tolerant about me, if they were in power?
That's why I said "perhaps unfortunately". I'm not advocating that Democrats play cautiously and timidly. I'm saying that that's what they do.
Flypusher:
Most amendments tend to be short and concise, but since these ratfuckers want to play stupid legal games, I'm for spelling out ALL the things that should be forbidden to all elected officials. Pardoning yourself? Forbidden. Pardoning someone in exchange for bribes/favors? Forbidden. Failing to separate from business interests that present a clear conflict of interest? Forbidden. Ordering your opponents murdered? Obviously forbidden, but Thomas and Alito can't seem to want to acknowledge that. Not disclosing your taxes and other relevant financial records? Forbidden. This amendment would probably be the longest one.
It would also have to explicitly say, "This amendment is self-executing and requires no enabling legislation to be in force."
Of course, we're fully in Mike Doonesbury's Summer Daydream territory here.
Dr. Brin,
I never said a word about cheating. Only 10% of pair-bonding species don't. But neither do they form harems.
https://www.nytimes.com/1998/09/27/us/infidelity-common-among-birds-and-mammals-experts-say.html#:~:text=by%20the%20male.-,Dr.,produce%20the%20best%20possible%20offspring.
Paul SB
I heard quite a few interviews with attendees at the RNC yesterday, and when asked about The Grope's choice of VP, there was one word I heard almost to the exclusion of all others. Vance is strong. No one said he was wise, or fair, or trustworthy, all they said was that he was strong. What conservatives want is a strongman - a synonym for dictator.
Paul SB
Okay, urge me not to post this more publicly. But I doubt very much that Two Scvoops would ever appoint someone to VP - or likely any high post - when unable to control the guy. The way HE is controlled from Moscow. By blackmail kompromat. (And Putin should know that if Trump re-enters the WH, there will be zero further puppet strings. They get cut, just like Hitler cut the strings when he poisoned President Hindenburg, when DT is surrounded by brownshirst and the Constitution is dead.)
HOW to ensure a fellow like JD Vance will obey perfectly?
"Wanna be my veep? Report tomorrow night to this room in this hotel for a photo shoot. First take a ton of Viagra. It could be a long night. We have a donkey."
It works. It obviously has, all across the GOP. And it opens a chance for some super-tracker sleuth to trace such movements, the last couple of weeks. Have there been evenings when JDV was away from wife & aides for an extended period? Where? What Suspicious characters were also in that vicinity? All right. I am now in movie thriller territory.
Of course, it may have been earlier and included Rubio and the other nobody hypocrite wannabe.
Vance can't dance.
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