Did you ever bang your head repeatedly against a wall, insisting over and over that "There ought to be a door here!"
It's how Lincoln must have felt, searching for generals who could defeat Bobby Lee. Till he found some. Till he found that door.
Likewise, I keep hoping the good side in this phase 8 of the U.S. Civil War will try agility and judo, rather than the same, tired sumo grunt-n-shove tactics, over and over and over, leaving the initiative to the other side... as they are doing in this current, crucial battle over the fate of civilization, the nation and our future.
I can't help it. While my head aches from wall-banging, I have to keep trying, as when I wrote Polemical Judo. And so, again, here are suggested tactics that could help, right now.
== Biden's "age thing." Getting a win-win-win. ==
Last week, I concluded a long, multi-topic blog with a proposed maneuver for President Joe Biden to deal with the age issue. This time - revised - it comes up top. One way that he could satisfy both his many strong supporters within the Democratic Party and those urging him to step aside, for the good of the nation.
This move would show his sincerity about doing the right thing, while also displaying his legendary courage and fighting spirit! Depending on the outcome, it would either reinforce his position as dynamic leader, or ease his way to gracefully annointing a successor.
It would also anchor-in what's fundamental here. That this is not about one man!
In fact, it would show that all leading Democrats are light years better than all leading Republicans. At all levels and in all ways.
Would you give it a try in your minds? Weigh the idea... and maybe pass it along?
== Mr. President, say this now! ==
"Look, I had a bad debate. I and millions of others don't believe that it means much. Nor do some slips of the tongue.
"But I do listen! And I know some of you out there are concerned, Moreover, unlike my opponent, I know that wishing something and yelling it doesn't make it so.
"Hey, I am showing signs of time's passage! I surround myself with the best folks the nation has to offer and I have vast experience. And some say I'm generally kind of a wise-guy...
"But I won't be obstinate. So let's test this!
"These would not be 'debates' as such. We won't be attacking each other... much. But it will accomplish many things at once!
- First, it will test me! If I can hold my own with these whippersnappers, that should anchor my rightful (already-earned) place as the party's nominee with joyful confidence!
- If I fail that challenge, then the best new leaders of our party -- and in-future the nation -- will get to show what they've got, before the party convention delegates, who will then have the authority given to them by voters this spring, to choose another slate.
"I am confident they will pick Biden-Harris! But if not, I will campaign for any of these fine folks, with vigor and energy!
- This will also show the depth of the Democratic Party's bench! The public will see that there are no flukes. Any and every person on the forum stage will be blatantly better - smarter, more grownup and vastly more moral - than any and every politician in the Republican Party!
- And finally, there's this. Jeepers. Should we turn down this opportunity for a vast TV audience? Let the forum participants disagree over this and that practical matter or proposal! Let them emphasize varied priorities, within our general consensus of goodness, courage, generosity of spirit. And dedication to facts! We'll have a great chance to present our administration's accomplishments...
...plus proofs about the dangers facing the nation, planet, civilization, freedom and our children! And a great chance to disprove the other party's mountain of volcanic, poisonous lies.
"I am consulting across a wide range of wise folks. But clearly, joining me onstage will be my own chosen running mate, world-respected stateswoman and my trusted friend, Vice President Kamala Harris!
"Who else? Obviously, we need Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom up there! I want Pete Buttigieg, too, plus the dynamic and mature Hakeem Jeffries.
"I'll let Bernie, Liz and AOC work out among themselves which of them to send from their wing. And from the other wing...? Hey Joe Manchin! Care to come back for a few nights and try the waters? They're pretty darn foul over there in the Fox county of lies! Over here we argue fairly, about true things. And we'll welcome any true input from you.
"So there you have it. Unlike my opponent, who squelches any competition, who demands utter, slavish obedience and who denies any possible fault, I'll admit I might be wrong when I look in a mirror and say "You still got it, kid!"
"Like any wise grampa, I'll listen to the best and wisest of later generations!
"And so, we're gonna get seven of em up on stage with me. And I predict two things.
"First, you'll see a terrific future for the Democratic Party and for America!
"But also, you will see that I still got it!
"And when I don't any longer... as happens to all of God's creatures... we have a team that will keep America great and keep America winning!
"God bless you all and good night."
== Are there ANY ways that would not be a win-win-win? ==
...allowing Joe to either disprove the carps and re-unify the party and nation behind him...
...or else ease aside, amid a love fest of admiration for his wisdom, as the convention delegates demonstrate democracy and sensible adulthood in action, choosing from a deep bench of brilliant, next-wave leaders.
Either way, a vast TV audience will see and hear that this is about a lot more than one or two men. And especially this: a person who appoints - or mentors - folks like these can be trusted to do a lot more for us all.
== More suggestions? Seriously Brin? End on a high note! ==
Naw, I can't help it. There's just too much. While I believe those seven-plus-Biden folks are good and wise leaders, only one of them has any chops when it comes to polemic. (There's that word again!) And even that one could use some outside help.
Last time I addressed some basic, polemical ways to slash at the Supreme Cult majority's travesty "Presidential Immunity Ruling."
I also addressed the dems' incredible failure to properly exploit the vast number of Trump appointees who later 'betrayed' him -- a devastating fact that only the Lincoln Project has handled well.
Speaking of 'projects'... Some folks are doing well polemically, attacking the treasonous, loathsome Project 2025. But I also added some potential knives about that, too. Last time.
But the one that really kills me is how NO Dem-leader is zeroing in on the one central issue - in my view.
That issue is the mad right's blatant campaign to debase the very word 'fact.'
== POUND on this one! ==
No one... no pol or pundit... categorically and relentlessly exposes the core GOP agenda -- waging all-out war vs. all fact using professions! From science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
I assert that this matters, more than any other issue! For one reason. Facts can disprove the lie-ravings about every other topic, from racism to communism-turned-fascism. From abortion to gender-slanders, to planetary neglect. From lies about the economy to damned-lies about Russia and 'stolen' elections.
Facts are the only bullets that actually kill lies.
Alas. We have instead an era when all sides rave assertions, with an underlying assumption that all assertions are equal, under Freedom of Speech.
You say there are 'fact-checking services?' How's that going for you? So-called 'fact-checkers' aren't working for some very basic reasons. And shrugging off those reasons is what makes you no damn help, at all.
Here's the deal: Demolition of the centrality of FACT in politics and policy is arguably the greatest crime committed by the undead were-elephant that has taken over the decaying, putrifying body of the Party of Lincoln.
It is the top reason why the State of Arizona now draws 17% of its electrical power from the spinning in Barry Goldwater's grave.
This polemical failure by Democrats and moderates was most telling during the 'bad day' presidential debate, a couple of weeks ago. Joe Biden kept muttering 'That's not true,' never realizing what should be obvious.
That phrase is meat to Trumpists!
It's like the schoolyard whine "th-that's no f-fair!" The plaint that every playground bully positively lives to hear from the kids he is tormenting! WATCH as Trump smiles, whenever Biden says it.
"That's not true," can be said in ways that devastate liars. But those methods all involve tenacious pursuit. Sinking your teeth into the lies and not letting go!
And so...
== Another thing for Joe to shout! ==
It truly ought to be obvious. Though...
... though why do I bother?
The politicos on the good side of this phase of the 250 year U.S. Civil War are worthy of our vigorous support. But ever since Jerry Brown or Al Franken, I have yet to see one willing to even consider fresh ideas.
If there's any common trait among all politicians, across every chasm or divide, it is the trait of Not Invented Here.
281 comments:
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Heh. Too late.
Anyhoo, I think Trump picked Vance so they can recycle old "Trump Pence" signs and only change two letters.
Kidding on the square.
...just like Hitler cut the strings when he poisoned President Hindenburg...
He presumably died of lung cancer.
Larry,
Kidding on the square.
...or maybe because his name doesn't have more letters or take longer to say? 8)
Nah. I'm sure it is the 'strong' thing. He wants to be seen that way, so this is an elbow rubbing choice. Definitely something Pence was not.
Pence was "holy" and the Grope had to shore up his control over the Evangeliban, given how much like an AntiChrist he acts. Trump has these Evangenitals in the bag, so it's no surprise he would double down on troglodyte. Given how trog a whole lot of conservative Christians are, it serves double-duty.
Paul SB
Alfred Differ:
Nah. I'm sure it is the 'strong' thing.
But someone who comes across as younger and stronger than him? That seems risky for his image.
I think he went for "Which white man is groveling the most toadyishly?" I thought Vance was the obvious pick all along, although I suppose Burgum might have had a shot. Sorry, but it was never going to be Haley or Rubio. I don't even understand how Rubio was considered a possibility in the first place.
Now that "I can't stomach America's Hitler" Vance has proven the fortitude of his stomach and the price of his soul, will "Unhung" Pence try to buy his soul back by pointing out that Trump is the poster boy for the Seven Deadly Sins? I doubt it, but then what's in it for him? Remaining unhung?
When he says the endless wars must end, one obvious meaning is:
Ukraine is toast.
But if 100s of thousands of Ukrainian refugees flee to America, he’ll complain that the ‘Globalists’ poked the Bear, and only they are to be held culpable.
I remember that one of the major points of the Scudderite regime in Heinlein's Future History was that the Prophets were isolationists; this was presented as a mixed blessing -- it kept America from nuking or getting nuked, but also left Europe hanging high and dry. IIRC, that timeline's WW3 involved a first strike on Europe by China. China was heavily damaged, but had more people and resources to lose; nonetheless the net result was that descendants of the Western Hemisphere dominated interstellar colonization. Galacta, the lingua franca of the far future, was descended from Spanglish.
It didn't take any great vision to come up with this scenario though -- it merely required remembering what the Old Guard Republicans of the early twentieth century felt. They resented Teddy's Big Stick reaching beyond a Monroe-Doctrine sphere of influence and were the retarding force behind the late entry into WW1, the failure of the US to back Versailles, and the mincing preparations for WW2 (despite WW1's lesson that we wouldn't be able to stay out forever).
All that having been said, I don't see how Putin could have ready kompromat on Vance -- and I don't see why he would need it as long as Trump's breathing. That said, I'm sure it's a high priority for acquiring it. I'd also point out that Putin is likely not the only one who has Purple Files on the Orange Felon.
Catfish hi. Erudite as usual. But you missed my gist.
I believe Putin/KGB have long since acquire kompromat on nearly all top GOPs. In fact, once you have acritical m,ass, a top command to the already compromised would be to recruit others. As Madison Cawthorn said he was urged to join GOP 'orgies.'
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/politics/madison-cawthorn-orgy-invite-cocaine-claim/index.html
But Vance is a special case. Trump is already almost invulnerable to Putin threats, since... where else is Vlad gonna go? What Trump NEEDS is a VP who is NOT under Vlad's thumb, but under Trump's own thumb.
The scenario I described is exactly how a former casino mafiosi would do it. From that point on, his VP choice will be absolutely obedient to him and not to Putin. NOT demanding this from Pence (it likely would not have worked) was one of Don's big mistake, he probably reckons now.
What fascinates me is Melania. What's she charging, a $million per public appearance with Two Scoops? Whatever it is, they must worry about the satiability curve and if a point will come when she shifts priorities to revenge. In which case, act swiftl;y. Mel. There's likely a Kremlin agent in your staff.
Catfish 'N Cod
All that having been said, I don't see how Putin could have ready kompromat on Vance
Back in 2016, Russia hacked both the DNC and RNC servers. E-mails and such that were embarrassing to Democrats were leaked out during the campaigns. We still have no idea what they're holding in reserve over the heads of Republicans.
Dr Brin:
What fascinates me is Melania. What's she charging, a $million per public appearance with Two Scoops?
He might be holding her parents' fate over her head.
A letter to the editor in the Chicago Tribune tries to make the point that Democrats are more slimy than Republicans because "There's a world of difference between calling your opponent old and doddering vs calling your opponent a fascist threat to democracy."
In other words, Republicans' sins are much more reprehensible than Democrats' sins, so what's important is that Democrats mentioning Republicans' sins is much more reprehensible than Republicans mentioning Democrats' sins.
Dr. Brin, I think its just a case of JDV being a venture capitalist and having ties to the VC community.
Every relationship for trump is transactional.
JDV is just a source of money for him.
There is no other strategy or plan, Trump doesn't think like that.
Biden has Covid-19, still very dangerous for those over 80.
So let's see what happens.
I believe him to be a basically good guy who cares about other people, with a level of empathy deepened by the personal tragedies in his own life.
And he's been a damn fine president, instituting much needed reforms that actually helped ordinary Americans.
Damn it, he deserves better.
DP:
Biden has Covid-19
Maybe that's what's been making him seem so old lately? Maybe he recovers and sounds like State of the Union Biden again?
DP:
And he's been a damn fine president, instituting much needed reforms that actually helped ordinary Americans.
In the teeth of a hostile congress and supreme court, too.
I've been tired of hearing how un-exciting Biden is, or how he's just a placeholder for not-Trump. He's the best president we've had in my adult lifetime. And it doesn't go to his head, either.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/us/politics/trump-politics-business-martyrdom.html
...
“I’ve always considered myself a DJT [Truth Social] stock holder & campaign donator,” wrote a user with the screen name Monstermolder22, adding, “The main reason I’ve been in this from the beginning, watching my original investment fall to 80% of its’ original worth, is because I believe so strongly that Trump is the only way we save America.”
Another poster, UltraMAGAFed, wrote that “we are at war” and urged other members to buy and hold more stock. “November 5 is America’s Alamo. We are ALL IN. LET’S FKN GO!!!!!”
...
They're welcome to lose their shirts for Trump as far as I care. And how did the Alamo turn out again?
Finally, someone other than me states the obvious:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/opinion/trump-biden-authoritarianism.html
In public discourse, identity politics is more associated with the left. Progressivism used to be oriented around how to make capitalism just, but now in its upper-middle-class form, it’s oriented around proper esteem for and inclusion of different identity groups.
But as Hunter notes, Donald Trump practices identity politics just as much as any progressive. He tells the story of how small-town, less-educated Christians are being oppressed by elites. He alone is their retribution. That story resonates with a lot of people. In the 1950s, Billy Graham assumed that his faith was central to American life. By the 2020s his son Franklin considered himself a warrior under siege in an anti-Christian culture.
And then the ominous conclusion...
The problem with this form of all-explaining identity politics is that it undermines democracy. If others are evil and out to get us, then persuasion is for suckers. If our beliefs are defined by our identities and not individual reason and personal experience, then different Americans are living in different universes, and there is no point in trying to engage in deliberative democracy. You just have to crush them. You have to grab power and control of the institutions and shove your answers down everybody else’s throats.
If you think Biden is a wee timorous Democrat, thttps://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1813744335789121551hink again.
Vance can't (cossack)* dance (though he's in a packet).
* Another 'Russian' ethnic group that originates in the Ukraine, so that makes sense.
Part of the problem with identity politics is that identity is mostly an illusion, and mostly imposed upon us by others. You are assigned a role without your consent and without reference to your real life. Identity politics requires that you attach to that imposed illusion, and attachment to illusion causes suffering.
One of the illusions of identity politics is that it is liberatory. Nonsense. It is authoritarian. It says: stay in your lane. Do what is expected of one such as you.
A truly liberatory politics focuses not on identity, but its opposite: universality. When walls fall, common truth is revealed. This is exciting but scary, for freedom unleashes change, and therefore life, and therefore chaos. Death, and living death, is much more orderly.
Life is nothing but trouble, yet I am for it. Are you?
I am utterly, gonzo confused that the USA is acting like Weimar Germany.
The country has an economy that would be described as a miracle if rumpt had been in charge; its military is second only to a potential invading alien spacefleet; it has the world's reserve currency and is exporting energy; and it's acting as if it had lost a massive war and was mired in a depression. We're not toting around our cash in wheelbarrows and Luxembourg hasn't occupied Silicon Valley.
France - FRANCE! - managed to unite enough parties to keep its neofascists away from power. The UK has shoved its Tory Cthulhu back to sunken Ry'leh, for now. Poland pushed back against its Law and Justice party, and India pared away at Modi's fundies. Finland...well, best wishes, Finns*. I'm sure you'll come around.
And the USA is setting up for Project 2025 End Times, as the Democratic Party experiments with a spherical firing squad. Project 2025 outlines a plan for a return to the spoils system and the elevation of a kakistocracy unmatched since the Third Reich fell. And for what? For tax cuts on rich people, war with China AND Iran, re-education camps for trans folks and minefields along the Rio Grande, I guess. If I had more hair left I'd worry about the smoldering. As an ex-weatherman I'm wondering if I should be pricing gopher wood.
Pappenheimer
*Get your sh*t together, Finland. We need more exemplary behavior, apparently.
What fascinates me is Melania. What's she charging, a $million per public appearance with Two Scoops?
He might be holding her parents' fate over her head.
Or she may be just as cold, selfish, and transactional as he is.
And he's been a damn fine president, instituting much needed reforms that actually helped ordinary Americans.
Damn it, he deserves better.
Yes he does, and it makes me sad. I would have zero sympathy for the MAGA folk getting what they voted for, good and hard. But we'd all end up going over that cliff.
Tony Fisk:
If you think Biden is a wee timorous Democrat...
To clarify, no I don't.
I think the Democratic party strategy has always been too cautious, regarding pushing back against the Republican framing of every issue. And we're in a time when the old playbook just isn't working. Where I think the party is timorous is in adapting to new circumstances, like for instance the Lincoln Project.
Pappenheimer:
The country has an economy that would be described as a miracle if rumpt had been in charge; its military is second only to a potential invading alien spacefleet; it has the world's reserve currency and is exporting energy; and it's acting as if it had lost a massive war and was mired in a depression. We're not toting around our cash in wheelbarrows and Luxembourg hasn't occupied Silicon Valley.
I agree with everything you say, and have been singing that song forever. But your surprise indicates that you, like me, simply are not tuned into FOX News and other even-more-right-wing outlets. Vast swaths of our population are getting their "reality" from such places, or regurgitated from there on social media. Their perception is of an alternate universe in which unemployment is at a 50-year high, Joe Biden heads a crime family, and rampant gangs of illegal immigrants are turning our cities into flaming hell-holes.
I was amused to read that the 9Formerly) GOP convention's delegate had overloaded Grindr to near uselessness. But I suspect "Kompromat" no longer has much effect on them.
Without further comment...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul18-1.html
Trump adviser Peter Navarro got out of the clink yesterday, and promptly made his way to Milwaukee to give a speech. He continued with an ongoing theme of this convention, which is "law and order is the greatest when it's applied to our opponents, but totally unfair and corrupt when applied to us." We would not be doing our job if we did not point out that "the laws only apply to the opposition" is a core element of fascism.
I am utterly, gonzo confused that the USA is acting like Weimar Germany.
It is the system.
It is a thousand things.
It is the butcher's bill of colonization and slavery, unpaid for ten generations.
It is the lies Hollywood and corporate mass media and technoligarchs tell or help to spread.
It is personal poverty in contrast to obscene wealth. It is tent cities full of misery next to gleaming skyscrapers. It is guarded, monotone walled communities and rotting appartement complexes.
It is the strength of corporate power, and the weakness of union power.
It is the death penalty, mass incarceration and extralegal killings by LEOs.
It is the lost war on drugs and the millions of opioid addicts and fatalities.
It is the lost war on terror and the hundreds of thousands of veterans, deformed, disillusioned and dead.
It is the red scare. It is the mythic nostalgia of a yesterday that never was (at least, for all).
It is the violence against minorities and a rape culture.
It is mass surveillance by a security apparatus that can't be held responsible.
It is a failing electoral system that allows a loud minority to be elected and suppress the majority. It is gerrymandering, first-past-the-post, ID shenanigans, excluding 3+% of the population from voting.
It is a failing judicial system that allows rapists and seditionists to the highest offices if they are rich and white, and incarcerates or kills people for far lesser offenses if they are not.
It is clinging to some tattered pieces of paper a quarter millenium old written by rich slave-holding landowners and religious radicals in the age of feuding kingdoms and it is the old men charged with deciphering what the deified founders could have meant, like augurs in an ancient temple.
It is the American Exceptionalism. It is the Invade the Hague Law, the Oath of Allegiance in schools, the Flag in every garden, and it is underestimating enemies abroad and dominating allies.
It is Pride.
It is the violence in media and society, the militarization of police and citizens. The mass shootings, the January 6th rioters, the militias, prosecutors demanding the death penalty, torture by intelligence officers, extralegal killings by drone strikes. It is Hiroshima, Vietnam, the near east.
It is Wrath.
It is the aggression against minorities in fear of losing something they never had. It is the Karen from the Karen incident, Anti-LGBT-laws, the incitement of hate against immigrants.
It is Envy.
It is the domination of women and alpha/sigma male garbage. It is the abuse of children by pastors and politicians. It is the Epstein circle of friends.
It is Lust.
It is obesity and addictions. It is overindulgence and consume. It is too much sugar and fat in the food, it is mass animal factories, it is immigrants (even minors) toiling away in slaughterhouses and drug cartels butchering ten thousands of people to provide the stuff you crave.
It is Gluttony.
It is necroliberal feudalistic capitalism that drains the common wealth. It is rising dynasties of billionaires who have a larger say in politics than anyone else in the country. It is decaying civil infrastructure, schools, healthcare, and rising incomes from the stock markets. It is private equity fonds buying up houses and appartments, and driving the rents upwards.
It is Greed.
It is staying at home on voting day, not bothering with education, ignoring what is unpleasant, keeping the head down.
It is Sloth.
It is the seven deadly sins and the four apocalyptic riders.
And a thousand things more.
The seeds for today have always been there.
Looking more and more likely...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul18-5.html
So far, there is little public evidence that the attempt on Trump's life was politically motivated. So to some extent, this attempt is more like a mass shooting, where a disturbed person was angry with the world or wanted to go down in a blaze of attention, rather than a political assassination.
And continuing...
Between 1966 and 2019, most mass shootings were carried out by white men who bought the gun themselves legally, the only major exception being school shootings, where the shooter often used a gun purchased by a family member. Military-style semi-automatic weapons are not needed for hunting deer or home defense. There is no legitimate reason for individuals not in the military or law enforcement to have an AR-15. But even after this incident, Trump does not want to place any limits on gun purchases by anyone.
"The Bible, the Code of Hammurabi and of Justinian, Magna Carta, the Constitution of the United States, Fundamental Declarations of the Martian colonies, the Statutes of Alpha Three..."
- Cogley in TOS "Court Martial"
"There is no lighter burden, nor more agreeable, than a pen."
- Petrarch
"The greatest invention of the 20th century was the transistor."
- scidata
Sad but true...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/15/opinion/democrats-west-wing.html
Instead of watching “The West Wing,” Democrats should have been taking to heart the lessons of “Veep,” Armando Iannucci’s very different White House series, in which everything dumb and disastrous that can happen does happen. A dark and devastating comedy, it depicts Washington as staffed by petty, venal people who are too busy tripping over themselves to successfully advance their own interests.
LH "Sad bu true."
Sad but untrue. DC overflows withdeeply sincere and dedicated civil servants, cooperating... and often competing ... to run the most complex civilization ever made.
Dr Brin:
DC overflows withdeeply sincere and dedicated civil servants, cooperating... a
I was thinking more of congresspeople. And specifically Republican congresspeople.
To perhaps no one's surprise...
https://www.newsweek.com/jd-vance-wife-attacks-maga-trump-running-mate-1926194
...
In the wake of Trump's vice presidential announcement on Monday, numerous conservative and far-right figures have taken to social media to launch racist attacks against Usha Vance because of her Indian heritage and the assumption that her influence on her husband's political career means the Republican Party will be softer on immigration.
...
Nick Fuentes, a white supremacist who visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago home along with rapper Kanye West in November 2022, suggested that [J.D.] Vance would not be a "defender of white identity" because of his wife's Indian heritage.
"Who is this guy, really?" Fuentes said on his podcast. "Do we really expect that the guy who has an Indian wife and named their kid Vivek is going to support white identity?"
...
Hmmm, Blogger apparently doesn't like me posting what Nick Fuentes said about J.D. Vance and his Indian wife. It was not complimentary.
Unusual question for me this morning - called AAA to get a jump for my daughter's Kia Soul; had to verify make, mode, year and location.
Then: "What color is your soul?"
I thought about replying, "Ranges from deep blue to dark gray."
Pappenheimer
Our Ogre said,
"The seeds for today have always been there."
And he's absolutely right. Maybe instead of watching "The West Wing" or "Veep" we should be watching shows about the Weimar Republic, or the rise of the Fasci in Italy. Does anybody know of any good ones to promote, things that should make the parallels clear?
Paul SB
Before you guys go deep into despair, you need to take a look at these polls.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-poll-released-after-shooting-raises-eyebrows-1926266
Donald Trump Poll Released After Shooting Raises Eyebrows
The survey found that when asked "if the election were held today, for whom would you vote for president?" 47.2 percent answered Trump, 44 percent Biden, 4.8 percent another candidate and four percent said they were undecided.
However the sample of 800 likely voters included just 17 African Americans, by comparison to 638 white voters, which has raised concerns, given Georgia was 31 percent African American in 2020 according to census data from that year.
He shared the survey's raw data, initially posted by another X user, adding: "This is very bad polling, and this is how you end up with 10x weights on a single respondent. You cannot have an n=17 Black voter sample in an 800 LV poll in *Georgia*, whose electorate is usually 25%-30% Black! This is awful data and just bad science in general."
Voters under Age 40 in Georgia accounted for one out of three votes about 33% of the vote in Georgia but they were only 8% of the respondents and of course this is because people are not answering their cell phones and it's getting harder and harder and harder to get people to take polls and so what they're doing is they're taking the answers of people who will take a poll and which probably has unique personality characteristics.
So correcting for these obvious biases, errors and poor science...
... Joe Biden is ahead in Georgia.
Meanwhile (posted yesterday),
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226
Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining
Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign "fundamentals," such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.
It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
So maybe the polls are skewed just a tad by old white people who actually still have land lines and respond to calls from strangers.
Said old white people having a preference for Trump.
And
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost
The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point with 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
Does anybody know of any good ones to promote, things that should make the parallels clear?
I recommend Babylon Berlin.
The media have a vested interest in polls showing a tie within the margin of error, right up to election day, and the wee wankers ken it.
DP:
Before you guys go deep into despair, ...
I'm not despairing that Biden can't win. I'm despairing over the Democrats getting ready to dump him and then floundering. (And then, as The Rude Pundit predicted, the NY Times shifting their narrative to what a stupid idea it was to dump Biden.)
scidata:
The media have a vested interest in polls showing a tie within the margin of error, right up to election day,
I saw that in the 2008 primary race between Hillary and Obama, and then again in the general with McCain and Obama. I haven't seen anything which would make me un-see that since.
Echoes of the Weimar Republic have also been reverberating in my mind as well.
Any comparisons here to the rise of Fascism during this era are missing a big piece of the puzzle if they do not include how a minority of voters was able to seize power. A major talking point for the Democrats should be: Get Out The Vote (even if it means not voting for "our" candidate). The death of democracy will be caused by apathy and deciding any of the choices is not worth the effort to go to the polls. Don't let 33% of the vote decide our fate for the foreseeable future.
Re: "...shows about the Weimar Republic..."
I've heard good things about 'Babylon Berlin', though I haven't seen it so can't confirm; I was trying to remember the name before Der Oger came up with it.
Pappenheimer
"Don't let 33% of the vote decide our fate for the foreseeable future.'
Easier said than done. The USSC has neutered the VRA, allowed unlimited gerrymandering, and given us Citizens United. I'm not saying 'give up' and I won't, but but it may not be a case of 'letting'.
Pappenheimer
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/opinion/biden-stay-in-race.html
...
Yes, there’s a chance he could lose this election. That chance exists for any candidate. But allowing elites to muscle him out of the race would be playing a dangerous game that is not without its own very real risk. It won’t guarantee victory and may produce chaos. The logic that says you have to dump Biden in order to defeat Trump is, at best, a gamble, the product of panicked people in well-furnished parlors.
Furthermore, no one has really made the case that whatever decline Biden may be experiencing has significantly affected his policy decision making or eroded America’s standing in the world. The arguments center on the visual evidence of somewhat worrisome comportment but mostly speculation about cognition.
That is just not enough.
...
Echoes of the Weimar Republic have also been reverberating in my mind as well.
The only direct parallel I can find is in bypassing legislative processes by using executive orders, and (in a reverse) the dominance of Prussia in the Reichsrat.
Democracy is besieged only by the GOP, not from two sides (Nazis and Communists) who deliver themselves battles in the street. You have not lost a devastating war which forced you into a humiliating and crippling piece treaty. The economy has recovered well. And most important: Citizens then have not been democrats; the culture of living in an authoritarian state still formed them.(Side note: I find parallels between Weimar and Afghanistan in the cold war: A socially liberal, if monarchic, government gets crushed between islamist warlords and russian-backed communists. Same in Iran.)
Rather, if I had to choose a historical comparison, I would choose the events of the late Roman Republic, partly because of parallels (Urban vs. Country, money being a deciding factor in the elections, militarization of the society) but also because GOP-affiliated sides specifically pushed that narrative. (Then, maybe, one should remind them, that after a century of civil wars, dictatorships, and political mass murders, it were the Populares - Caesar and Octavian - who ascended to the imperial throne.)
Here a commentary why JDV was picked:
Rachel Maddow exposes the real reason JD Vance was chosen to be Trump's running mate.
Crooks researched many figures on the Web: Dems, GOP, others. He was an opportunist—similar to Bremer; looking for a shot at someone.
Hinckley’s motive was discovered right away, but there will be no clear motive found for Crooks. The tags of incel/bullied/notoriety-seeking/lonely don’t apply, as they’re catch-alls—too vague to be explanatory. One could perhaps designate the majority of people on Earth as incel/bullied/notoriety-seeking/lonely.
Maybe Crooks had one too many bowls of Froot Loops...
So did Crooks donate to Planned parenthood or not? I heard it was someone else with a similar name.
I didn't hear about a donation to Planned Parenthood (and couldn't find anything on the 'net), but he did donate $15 to a democratic PAC, which some people thought (hoped?) it was someone else with the same name.
Turns out it was him.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-shooter-donation/
$15 to a voter turnout project. Will keep you posted re further developments. However, there won’t be much to report. It’s been five days since the shooting, but no motive is known; no accomplices have been discovered.
Little Things will be found out, though—but what reason is there to think they’ll add up to anything big?
Dr Brin:
So did Crooks donate to Planned parenthood or not? I
What I heard wasn't Planned Parenthood, but a "get out the vote" entity through VoteBlue. A few days ago, I thought I had seen a NY Times link to the VoteBlue form which did have a Pennsylvania address, but now I can't find it.
What struck me as odd is that the donation was made on Jan 20, 2021. Biden's inauguration day. Seems like a weird time to make a get-out-the-vote donation, especially for a 17 year old.
There might’ve been a conspiracy involved in the shooting; doesn’t mean we will ever learn anything new about it.
It’s been 60 yrs since JFK was killed—what do we know? Ruby had mob connections.
"JFK was killed—what do we know?"
I'm sure if you go to YT and search, they were three deep at the grassy knoll.
Pappenheimer
Alan Brooks:
It’s been five days since the shooting, but no motive is known; no accomplices have been discovered.
The lack of detail is a detail in itself. Had he been an Islamicist or a Black Lives Matter devotee, or even a Bernie Bro, we'd be hearing nothing but his affiliation for weeks on end. If he had been an illegal alien, the "Biden let him into the country," ads would be running from now to November.
That Republicans have nothing to tout tells me he's a white gun nut and probably nominally a Christian. Nothing to see here but an everyday, normal mass-shooting. It reminds me of when the Dobbs decision was prematurely leaked and John Roberts plus several Republican congressmen vowed to find the leaker and arrest him. Once it became likely that the leaker was a conservative, all that quietly went away.
Little Things will be found out, though—but what reason is there to think they’ll add up to anything big?
The point is that it won't be anything big, despite Republican hopes and prayers that they could tie Biden and Democrats to the crime. We're looking for details now to solidify the notion that there's nothing of that kind going on. My personal belief is that the shooter wasn't trying to make a political statement. He saw the opportunity for taking revenge on a local crowd at an event which would draw such a crowd.
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Look left. Look right. Look in the mirror. If you and everyone around you are wearing adult diapers over American flag pants and you have a maxipad taped to the side of your head to show your allegiance to your leader, well, guess what? You're in a fucking cult.
A really, really shitty cult.
ComicCon San Diego is next week. A respite of optimism and 'comic relief'. Have fun to anyone who's going (I can't).
My JFK theory: Oswald was totally qualified - a marksman with perfect location and drive... but a nutter. Some mob guy riled him up on the off chance it might work... and was shocked when it did. THAT was why they had to silence him, throwing Ruby to the wolves, to do it. It is the very very simplest of all explanations.
Comicon. I an on a panel about alien civilizations at 2 Sunday in the Marriott.
Alien civilizations - wonderful - ComicCon minds are the best minds.
To break the mood a little...
It seems someone is either listening to OGH or has been thinking along the same lines for getting AI properly grounded.
My wife woke up this morning and I advised her, as she was sitting down at her computer desk, that Chuck Todd was dead.
"So the average intelligence of the US went up slightly?"
"No," I sighed. "Read on."
She did. "Oh, no. Not Bob Newhart."
Pappenheimer who just got my wife an ice cream cone, soft serve, and got it home mostly unmelted in 90F. She needed it.
Three Gorges Dam overwhelmed and Wuhan flooded https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCWHr7EDrfY
The Weimar Republic analogy doesn't apply well to us. Use the oligarchs who thought they controlled a monster if you like, but that isn't unusual for US politics.
It's worth remembering that Teddy Roosevelt was strongly disliked by many politicians in NY. Adding him as the VP on McKinley's ticket was seen as a way to get him out of NY and into permanent obscurity. The problem was they KNEW they couldn't control him. Hence... the obscurity of the VP's office.
Rich people have been doing their 'best' to control US politics since our founding. Their available tools have grown with the generations, so don't fall for the nonsense that something fundamentally new is happening.
This is an OLD battle we fight. Liberty or Death. Familiar?
They played the whole RNC on NPR, and every word of it I heard filled my mind with the voice of Edith Bunker proclaiming, "Oh my!" I had to turn it off before too long. My family are all renewing their passports.
Paul SB
Dems can stop wteting themselves and remember that polling is basically crap.
https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/
Pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Here’s why political polling is no more than statistical sophistry
Sampling methods
Pew has documented that telephone response rates have fallen below 9% which is not considered close to valid measurement in any social science fields. Online surveying can be more problematic as there there is no national list of email addresses from which people could be sampled. Thus there is no systematic way to collect a traditional probability sample of the general population relying the internet.
Sample size
With the exception of Edelman, the response sample sizes are often far too small with most polls surveying less than 1,000 people–sometimes only a few hundred. Making things worse is the narrow overspecification asking for more than what the data can give. A sub-category with seven respondents gives nothing but noise.
Wording bias
Poorly phrased questions can create discrepancies between what pollsters sought to measure and how audiences interpret the question, a phenomenon social science researchers call “demand characteristics.” This is worsened by the fact many pollsters provide only two possible answers to a question in lieu of a more representative and comprehensive Likert scale, eliminating the central tendency and artificially reducing a spectrum of responses towards dichotomous poles.
Drama seeking
The motives of the pollsters–and their sponsors-can be questionable, with tradeoffs between attention and accuracy. Not only are many polls commissioned by partisan groups with obvious biases, but some polling outfits also use provocative polling results to gain the prominence of stature and the expert academic authority that they lack. High-profile polls help lower-profile institutions compete commercially in the attention economy.
...so you don't have to.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul19-1.html
A month or so ago, we made a remark about how there would be a fair amount of illicit gay sex taking place at the RNC. And we were chastised by some readers for making a homophobic joke. But it wasn't a joke at all, and was never intended as such. For many attendees who are living a less-than-honest straight life, the convention offers one of their few opportunities to follow their hearts without prying eyes looking on.
This has proven to be the case again in 2024. This week, a Grindr executive described the RNC as "basically Grindr's Super Bowl,"
...
Obviously, we have no issue with people who want to do whatever they want to do with other consenting adults. However, as we pointed out yesterday, an ongoing theme of this convention is hypocrisy, and this is another form of it. It's B.S. to spend your day talking about monitoring people's morality/sex lives, and then to spend your night hooking up with people on Grindr.
...
he convention organizers really pulled out the stops on Thursday, switching from a house band playing other people's songs to the actual artists playing their own songs. Kid Rock performed; (Z) saw him in concert about 20 years ago, and... wow, his voice is shot. What wears black, is white trash, and is red all over? Kid Rock.
...
It's not just the politicians who have to get up on stage and eat sh** in hopes of preserving their future career aspirations, it's media members, too. Now that Tucker Carlson is an independent broadcaster, his only hope at remaining relevant is his ability to score interviews with Trump. And those interviews will only be of interest if Trump is a president, as opposed to being an inmate. And so Carlson came out to talk about what an AMAZING guy Trump is, and how he (Carlson) can't imagine why he might ever have thought otherwise.
DP:
Dems can stop wteting themselves and remember that polling is basically crap.
Can, but apparently aren't. The institutional panic itself might lead to our downfall.
Before panicking over Trump's dominance in polls, Democrats should have waited for the effects of the RNC. They're not all good for the red team and their "unification" theme.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/white-supremacist-close-to-trump-suffers-racist-meltdown-over-jd-and-usha-vance/articleshow/111836863.cms
White supremacist, close to Trump, suffers racist meltdown over JD and Usha Vance
Also
https://www.salon.com/2024/07/11/donald-fake-rejection-of-project-2025-has-angered-his-biggest-fans/
Donald Trump's fake rejection of Project 2025 has angered his biggest fans
Steve Bannon has been in prison just over a week, and already one can see the strain on MAGA world, lost without their boss man to tell them what to think. Bannon's absence from the scene may be the single best explanation for why some of the loudest trolls on the right are now griping at Donald Trump for pretending he isn't tightly entwined with the notorious Project 2025. Talia Jane at the New Republic reports that Infowars host Alex Jones is leading the charge to castigate Trump, not for his 34 felony convictions, but for temporarily pretending to be moderate in order to win the presidential election.
Did anyone actually think otherwise?
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Jul19-3.html
Some investigative journalism is turning up evidence that the ballot-access drives of Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are being funded by Republican groups and activists that think these candidates will pull votes away from Joe Biden. In North Carolina, Trump activist Scott Presler gathered signatures outside a Trump rally to get West on the ballot. He told potential signers that West was a far-left Marxist who could take a point away from Biden. He was not the only one. Blitz Canvassing, a Republican firm that earned millions of dollars working for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), helped West collect more than the 13,800 signatures needed for ballot access. Some of the gatherers failed to sign the form, which will lead to court challenges. The firm refused requests to say who paid it for its work. Another group of signature gatherers refused to provide any information about their work, even after being subpoenaed.
Everyone knows that Trump is truth-challenged. But again, if the goal is to get some voters beyond the base, then you gotta rein that in, right? Not only did he lie, but he told lies so transparent that nobody could possibly believe them. For example, he declared that Democrats want to quadruple everyone's income taxes. Clearly, no political party would do that, it would be both political and economic suicide.
The lies and the "greates/worst whatever in history" exaggerations are features, not bugs. Fascist dictators tell lies and implausibilities with the intent of forcing followers to agree with crap they know to be not only untrue but ridiculous. You're supposed to let go of your critical thinking and just let the leader define reality for you.
Now here's an interesting development: apparently the would-be assassin had looked up the time and location of the Democratic National Convention, and may have been planning to kill officials on both sides of the aisle.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-shooting-federal-investigation-2a90bdfd23ba9c3569cb9c29a459e87b
Paul SB
Now here's an interesting development: apparently the would-be assassin had looked up the time and location of the Democratic National Convention, and may have been planning to kill officials on both sides of the aisle.
Heard a podcast yesterday with Sir Niall Fergusson* with the title "We are all Soviets now".
He relates his observation to the high rate of addictions and suicides in young and adult males in the US and relates it to a generalized social despair. On the Lincoln Project Podcast, Rick Wilson used the term "troubled" and "broken" young men multiple times.
And I think both are right, though I believe that we differ greatly on the type of remedy needed.
In the end, Suicide By Secret Service might have been his goal all along - together with entering the ranks of the likes of Gavrilo Princip** and Lee Harvey Oswald.
*It took a time to remember why I dislike this person.
**He might have succeeded in that, if the shooting brings him into office. Our life as we know it will be over.
In other news:
our conservatives seem to prepare to kiss the ring. Jens Spahn, former Health Minister, right-wing poster boy and the last remaining member of the Merkel administration with Poobah status, has visited the RNC and uttered that, though he disagrees with Trump and the GOP on many issues, one should not say that Trump would be a dictator. Wolfgang Ischinger is also there, warning about "alarmism".
I have the feeling that they already have entered negotiations with the Trump team. That might be prudent diplomacy, but also giving Trump/Vance a form of legitimacy they do (yet) not have.
Oy! Trailer for a lavish new remake of Time Bandits!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzrRfONsDQs
Stonekettle on Threads knows whereof he speaks.
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Fascism doesn't stop. It's NEVER enough. To maintain itself, it must become more and more extreme. It CANNOT exist without enemies. They won't stop with "illegal immigrants." The secret police forces, the detention camps, and the security apparatus necessary to round up millions of undocumented workers won't go away once all of those people are deported. It'll will simply be retasked and retargeted to the next group deemed undesirable by those in charge.
Sooner or later, YOU'll be the enemy.
2024 and people are still bothered by sex scandals? Lula's wife is a prostitute (source: one of Lula's sons) and enjoys coke-fueled gangbangs (dubious source: attributed to Gleise Hoffman, Lula's former mistress) and nobody gives a damn. What hurts them is not that we say it, but that Lula has been imposing taxes into *everything*: from basic food, to medicine, to solar panels and so on, while passing Hamas and preaching the destruction of Israel.
onward
onward
Dang! and we were nearly up to page three!
Onward it is...
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