Saturday, January 20, 2024

Again, my rant demand for wagers over proven facts. Watch as the he-men flee!

I remain awed by some Republicans - those quasi-sapient enough to dislike “all-7-deadly-sins” Trump, while claiming to love science and freedom – and yet who still  clutch mantras of GOP loyalty. Even purported libertarians - who know that Republican policies and narratives are anti-freedom in all ways - recite incantations like ‘liberals are worse!’

(Libertarian hypocrisy is galling, since Dems score better on everything ‘freedom lovers’ should want, from debt and deficits, abortion rights and drug law reform to individual sexual choice, tort and contract law, separation of church/state and anything having to do with personal accountability. Plus this: red-run states (except Utah) average higher rates of every turpitude (e.g. gambling, murder, rape, STDs...) and parasitize budget support from blue America. Alas, none of that matters, apparently - only tax cuts for the nobility. That is the one and only determining issue, ever since the Party of Feudalism took over most libertarian institutions.)

 

We live in a complex era and ‘ostriches’ (those residually smart but in-denial Republicans and Libertarians) use modern complexity to scamper from one head-hole to the next, reciting cancellation incantations. For example, howling about “Hansen’s errors in the 90s!” in order to evade facing the current tsunami of proofs that a looming climate crisis threatens the very lives of our children.


(And yes, that one issue alone should be enough to break the spell! So the distraction incantations become frantic.)

 

== Don't give up on your 'ostrich' neighbors! ==


I found one way past this tactic of frantic birds scurrying from one echo-hole to the next. Confront your semi-sapient ostrich with a list of distilled challenges, and stay focused on a few, tenaciously! Do not allow them to change the subject from that small set of fact-checkable assertions. And yes, here is where Brin repeats his challenge ad nauseam.  It helps to demand wagers! Or else some other form of accountability for what’s factually and provably true.


(Here's a video by a savvy young man using wagers to gradually pry his own mom away from QAnon addiction.) 

 

For example, if any ONE of the following is true, then today’s GOP is an insane criminal enterprise. If ALL are true (and they all are) then abetting that gang of mephistophelians is – in itself – treason to the only civilization that ever offered humanity a sliver of hope and progress. 

 

HERE’S THAT LIST and I will accept wagers - with attorney-escrowed $$$ stakes -over any of them:

 

* Grand juries across the United States (mostly white retirees, mostly in red-run states) have indicted almost a hundred times as many top Repubs as Dems! And I mean that: almost one hundred times as many! With other juries delivering correlated convictions. 


Now, in theory that fact could result from some grand conspiracy involving tens of thousands of Americans - from FBI agents to random citizens - conniving perfectly, without a single actual trace! That is, I suppose it could happen in a Hollywood thriller. Though shouldn't that blithe scenario demand a pretty darn steep burden of proof? Proof that is nonexistent. And I mean 100% nonexistent.


Or else, consider a simpler explanation: that this gusher of indicted/convicted felonies may result from subornation of the once-great party of Lincoln, Teddy R., Ike and Goldwater into a 'swamp' of systematic criminality. (Side bet: which party has >10x the rate of high officials nailed for child predation?)

 

* Pick any random 10 of Trump's 150,000 registered lies for us to wager-over. Or any non-vapor ‘evidence’ of any election 'steal.' Or name ONE fact-centered profession that’s NOT hated-on by Fox? (I can name one, but can you?)

 

* Now those hated fact professions include the FBI! Plus all the intel agencies and the US military officer corps. All of them used to be, not long ago, admired by all US conservatives! Now? Funny how that enemies list just happens to include all the Americans who are most hated by Vlad Putin, blaming them for the fall of his beloved USSR? Shouldn't that perfect overlap cause some concern?

 

Wager!  Let's ask those heroes (the FBI/intel/military officers who won the Cold War & War on Terror, but who are now hated nightly on Fox) to weigh in on fact-related matters! Like the climate crisis, or January 6, or Russian influence in the GOP… or whether Vlad's “ex” commissar cronies in Moscow - and a slightly relabeled KGB - ever actually changed their stripes? 


No, I mean it. Let’s ask them! Afraid that experiment might contradict what you suckle, nightly, from the Fox teat?

 

* Let's go together and ask a panel of those fact folks to compare Hunter Biden's whole life – assuming the worst! -  vs. any random week of the Trump boys. Let's tally NDAs & hush payments! How about we join forces to demand all records from both families! 


Can we agree - across party lines - to a national campaign to cancel all the NDAs, publish all the business records and let the chips fall where they may? No? Then how about at least solid metrics of who 'drained the swamp?' When do K Street lobbying firms to best? During Dem or GOP administrations?

 

Come to sea with me and a pH meter! Personally and together and in person. Then let’s take our readings to a randomly chosen community college chemistry instructor for clear interpretation. Let’s bet right now whether acidification is killing the oceans that our children will need! And it can ONLY be caused by human CO2 pollution.


 Are you man enough to put up wager stakes?  Or even more manly… to start caring?

 

* Let’s check Fox 'campus indoctrination' rants. Come with me in person to the nearest research university and knock on 20 RANDOM doors! 

Let’s BET NOW whether 18 or 19 of those 20 doors lead to smart & savvy grownups, doing brilliant work, who shrug off the noisy, noisome ‘woke-ist’ campus bullies, as gnat-like, abrasive, silly nuisances? 

No other factor did more to 'make America great' than vibrant U.S. leadership in science. So why does MAGA screech hate at universities, and scientists especially? (I can tell you why.)

* Compare DEATH rates of those who took - or refused - vaccines! Side question: Were ANY Americans as beloved by the nation, ever, as FDR was and later Jonas Salk?

 

* Can we bet which party is ALWAYS more fiscally responsible regarding debt and deficits? And yes, I mean always! (In fact, national Republican administrations are always spendthrift wastrels, sending deficits skyrocketing, while Democratic ones are always fiscally responsible. Please rush to escrow those wager stakes. Big ones.


"Are you squirming now?" (Ask your MAGA.) "How about, as a grownup, you live with the death of a favorite meme cliché!"

 

* I mentioned this before, but it really hits home! Let's put up real stakes whether Red-run States (except Utah) average higher in every class of turpitude! From gambling, addiction, STDs, domestic violence and murder to teen sex, divorce and net tax parasitism on the rest of the nation. 

 

* Throw in the failure of a single Rightist “supply side economics” prediction ever, ever to come true. Did I say ever? The sole tangible outcome of that cult has been rocketing wealth disparities favoring inheritance brats – now passing French Revolution levels - along with the deliberate war on science and the planet. 

 

== Am I beating a dead horse? ==


Of course, it’s futile to demand wagers from blowhard cowards, desperately repeating reassuring mantras and masturbatory incantations. No MAGA/Putinist ever shows manly guts to back up their blab, the way that our WWII grampas would've, with cash stakes slapped on the bar and an honest “let’s find out!”

Instead, alas, the blowhards always flee, amid the ruins of their macho.

So why do I recommend the tactic? 

Because it is this very assertiveness of confident men and women that will cause the New Confederates to back down... especially those unhappy, uncomfortable ones with actual minds, who know that something has gone terribly wrong with their 'movement.' Those who cover their ears and eyes, or suckle from the glass bosom of Fox etc., murmuring "I know my party's gone insane, but... but... but DEMOCRATS ARE WORSE!  Yeah, that's the ticket..."

It's these borderline cases who are worth the effort. And I can prove that.

Way back during Watergate, I saw the shift happen, when a critical mass of such folks - ostrich Republicans in refusal to recognize criminality - finally lifted their heads out of holes of denial, shook off the cobwebs and admitted: 

"I care more about my children, the future, science, truth, America and the world than about an undead were-elephant that badly needs a stake through its heart...

".... so that a decent, loyal, factual and American conservatism* can be reborn from the ashes of this monster." 

When that happens (and I have faith in my neighbors!) I will be among those who step up, congratulate them, welcome that phoenix back home... and then get back to negotiating with actual adults about our richly varied course into the future.

======


* Do you know the State of Arizona now draws 7.3% of its electricity from the spinning in Barry Goldwater's grave?

Well, then, maybe if I hum a few bars....


220 comments:

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David Brin said...

There's no mystery here. Trump was never the one holding L Grahm's kompromat blackmail files. What this shows is that the oligarchs & putin now want to get rid of Trump as a liability. Simplest way? Give DT an aneurism by getting his most loyal lackeys to throw him under a bus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdaHb4Zbdto

duncan cairncross said...

Hey Locobrunch

THIS is what I said

NZ is not as bad (as the UK) but even here the Maori are overrepresented at the bottom of society - todays laws (here) are NOT biased - but we have decades of history when they were biased

Is English not your native language??

Paradoctor said...

Dr. Brin:

Do you remember the Venona memo? It emerged after the Cold War, and it proved that the Soviets had indeed infiltrated various leftist organizations. Two factions on the Left remained untouched: the anarchists and the hippies. The anarchists have always hated Communism, and Communism had no use for hippy's decadence.

Now I wonder: what would be the equivalent of the Venona memo now? We do know that Putin has influence over the GOP, the NRA, and much else. But also: who among the Right is untouched? Not the fundamentalists, and I'm skeptical about the libertarians. Your view?

Paradoctor said...

Paradoctor:
About "seven deadly sins" Trump:
..

Larry Hart 7:55 AM:
He's also broken just about all of the Ten Commandments. Not sure about murder, but if he were to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, that would be a wrap.
..
Paradoctor:
Let's see now.
1. He's put other gods before God, namely himself.
2. He's made graven images of himself for people to worship.
3. He has cussed.
4. He has broken the Sabbath.
5. Has he honored his parents?
6. Has he murdered?
7. He has committed adultery.
8. He has stolen.
9. He has perjured.
10. He has coveted.

That's 8 out of 10. Impressive! In doubt remain #5, honor parents, and #6, don't murder.
Maybe his losing the fortune bequeathed him by his father is a kind of dishonoring; and maybe the casualties of his misgovernance was a kind of murder; but that's definition-stretching.

Alan Brooks said...

But are prisons in the US and N. Zealand corrective institutions, or do they promote recidivism?
What percentage of prisoners are innocent?
What percentage of the police break bad?

Alfred Differ said...

John Viril,

I got two chapters in and stopped for a break. Your protagonist hits a little too close to home for me. A college friend used to play and was in that level just below the one you describe. It's that one were a little juice gives them a bit too much hope they can make it the rest of the way.

His knees were a wreck (played catcher) and his heart had issues.

So... if your plan was for me to root for the protagonist to fail and possibly survive instead it worked. If not... well... that's the direction I'm leaning. 8)

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

We do know that Putin has influence over the GOP, the NRA, and much else. But also: who among the Right is untouched?


The Koch brother and whatever faction that sort of donor represents.

Also, Liz Cheney and Lincoln Project-type never-Trumpers. Not sure how to characterize them as a faction, though. "Conservatives who nevertheless prefer an open democracy?"

Larry Hart said...

Paradoctor:

That's 8 out of 10. Impressive! In doubt remain #5, honor parents, and #6, don't murder.


I grant you both remain in doubt.

Does "having someone murdered" count as a violation of the Sixth? If so, I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not making the claim.

As to the one about honoring parents, is that a prohibition on outright dishonoring. or an affirmative demand to honor? If the latter, I suspect he fails through neglect. Trump honors no one but himself.

* * *

Granting the fact that Jews, Catholics, and Protestants all seem to enumerate the commandments slightly differently, I still would have stated:

3. He has cussed.

more forcefully as:

3> He has taken the Lord's name in vain.

Everyone cusses these days. Trump has misrepresented God and Jesus, and not just in the manner of shouting "Jesus Christ!" after whacking one's thumb with a hammer. He has made claims about God and Jesus being mit him which he's pulled out of his ass. That seems more to the point of the Commandment.

Larry Hart said...

I said:

Does "having someone murdered" count as a violation of the Sixth? If so, I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not making the claim.


I mean I'm not making the claim that he actually has done that (though I wouldn't be surprised if he has).

Alan Brooks said...

https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/money-and-power/g9229257/fred-trump-facts/

David Brin said...

It is asserted that Jesus was gonna be named Patrick, till Mary hit her thumb with a hammer.

A multi-level joke that works on all of them!

"The Koch brother and whatever faction that sort of donor represents."

Oligarchs at this level may be immune from Putin/KGB blackmail and graft, but still fear assassination for non-compliance.

But I doubt that, too. What I figure is a spectrum... loose alliance of forces that all want decline in the rule-of-law system that might subject them to taxes and/or inspect their books.

A subset seek to crush the power elite that blocks a return to feudalism -- the nerdy fact professions who must be demoralized and return to their boffin places.

A subset of THOSE are the prepper-yearners who actually dream of "The Event". Emerging from their lavish bunkers to delerious hosannahs from desperate survivors, welcoming them as lords in the world of Canticle for Liebowitz. Alas, one of the members of this clade will be Vlad Putin, if he enters full "Downfall" phase. And then we will all have to count on some Russian officer saving the world for a third time.

-----

"Does "having someone murdered" count as a violation of the Sixth?"

The subset of GOP lords that includes ALL the world's casino mafiosi... what fraction of those men has NOT done that? They helped make one of their own (though a lessr casino guy) president.



Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

"The Koch brother and whatever faction that sort of donor represents."

Oligarchs at this level may be immune from Putin/KGB blackmail and graft, but still fear assassination for non-compliance.

But I doubt that, too. What I figure is a spectrum... loose alliance of forces that all want decline in the rule-of-law system that might subject them to taxes and/or inspect their books.


Well, even when there were two Koch brothers, they had given up on Trump. The surviving brother is throwing money at Nikki Haley at the moment. Whatever the reason, the Koch organization is not in line behind Trump.

Tony Fisk said...

Has he killed?

I mean, apart from that Iranian general, there's all the Covid victims he deliberately let hang, in the early days when the preponderance of cases were in the port/democrat areas. That didn't turn out so well.

locumranch said...

Is English not your native language??

Although it's an incredibly racist, eurocentric & culturally insensitive question for one to ask, why yes...

English is my native language, the problem being that I never learned to speak Euphemism well, as is the wont of certain mealy-mouthed Pakeha progressives who use fine phrases to hide intrinsic social failures.

I mean, really, what does it mean to say that the "Maori are overrepresented at the bottom of society", when CRT argues that entrenched poverty & unequal socioeconomic outcomes are proof-positive of systemic racism, especially when the denial of legal bias 'here' is said to be the top claim made by white supremacists everywhere ?

In both the Eu & US, the use of Euphemism Speak has become the dominant mode of communication & miscommunication, mostly because it is only by the use of such rhetorical lies & gambits that the modern progressive can lay claim to any type of social improvement whatsoever.

But, go ahead, keep telling us that the importation of third-world freeloaders, jihadists & public defecators 'equals' cultural enrichment.

Expound on how the inherent inequality of meritocracy is practically the same behavioral principle as mandated equity & enforced equality.

Describe how the destruction of your political opposition 'protects democracy' while facilitating fair & free elections.

Or, better yet, explain why public disobedience & protest is perfectly acceptable when progressives do it but 'insurrection' when conservatives do it.

Just know that the greater EU & US public has grown wise to your clever use of wordplay & redefinition, so much so that you're no longer fooling anyone, except maybe yourselves, especially if you assume that your lies will forever be without consequence.

Familiarize yourselves with the 4 Boxes of Liberty.



Best

David Brin said...

Jeepers, he MUST now be living in California. His cogency of language and clarity of expression accompany a USEFULNESS... in that he is at least aiming at complaints that have some relation to what his enemies do.

He's still a nutter. The portion of liberalism that dfoes those things is very small (if noisy). And even they do those things perhaps 1% as much as he claims. A couple of them more like 0.01%


Like "destruction of your political opposition". Um, look in the mirror, guy? I do look forward to the demolition of Putin and his vile ilk and release of his kompromat files, which - yes - would politically 'destroy' much of the current clade of 'leading' republicasn outright criminals and traitors. But among the benefits I yearn for is a rebirth of honorable, fact-compatible Goldwater conservatism that believes in a negotiation art called honest "politics.'

As for 'euphemisms'... that DOES happen, some, on our side. But you should talk? We include ALL of the fact-using professions and all defenders of use of facts. Yours is the cult of utter hallucinators, sir. But congrats on at lease raving in what might be called our general direction. Not close enough to smell the fart, though.

Larry Hart said...

Interesting. Who'da thunk it?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/25/opinion/israel-gaza-war-ukraine.html

...
Moreover, many educated Iranians know that their regime is just using support for the Palestinian cause as a cover for Iranian imperialism all across the region, where Tehran indirectly controls Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Which is why — remarkably — we keep seeing protesters in Iran popping up to express support for Israel since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and against Tehran’s costly imperial adventures. Yes, you read that right.

“During a game between the football clubs Persepolis and Gol Gohar at the country’s national football stadium, operatives of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps attempted to rally support for the Palestinian cause by waving Palestinian flags on the pitch,” The London Jewish Chronicle reported on Oct. 9, posting the raw footage from X, formerly Twitter. “Instead of sympathy, the Basij — one of the five forces of the I.R.G.C. — was met with chants from fans in the stands to ‘shove that Palestinian flag up your a**!’ Footage of the incident went viral on social media.” It included tweets like: “True Iranians will always support Israel! The Islamic Republic is an occupying force.”
...

Larry Hart said...

Tony Fisk:

"Has he killed?"

I mean, apart from that Iranian general, ...


I guess the question is whether the Commandment covers taking action or inaction which leads indirectly to another's death. Or do you only break it if you use your own hands and weapons to directly inflict death?

David Brin said...

onward

onward

Alan Brooks said...

What I want most is Putin in a cell, listening to his own speeches via loudspeaker.
Such would be justice.

Tom Ritchford said...

Great article in general, very forceful.

A note: Penn Gillette, while a fantastic performer, did spend decades using his public status to fiercely push the idea that the climate catastrophe was a right wing hoax.

I stopped watching Penn & Teller's show "Bullshit" when they had an episode "debunking" climatology without a single scientist on it.

So I suppose it's better than nothing that now he's changed his mind, but the damage is already done. And now he's all Pollyanna on us, "Best of all possible worlds!", which yet again is a way to diminish the immensity of the effort we would actually need not to devastate our biosphere.

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