As Lucy Liu asks Uma in KILL BILL: "Did you actually think it would be easy?" Uma answers: "Yeah, for a minute there I actually did."
I have little to ease your tension the next couple of days, or weeks, fretting about possible hot civil war. I had hoped we'd be rescued by several million white women and hispanic males, two groups who could shock pollsters and tip the balance by voting for their families' future. But I was wrong and the shock went the other way. So now stores on Main Street are boarded up and National Guard units are on pre-alert, in fear of civil unrest by either side, if it loses.
True, there's a difference in what activists mean by 'resistance,' with the Union side of this civil war phase preparing to call a national General Strike, if it appears a myriad GOP cheats stymied the people's will. At minimum it's time to revive and re-invigorate the boycott of all advertisers on Fox News, until they agree to restore the Rebuttal rule that curbs sewer-lying. Rupert Murdoch laughed at our earlier attempts. But maybe this time.
Meanwhile, Trump is telegraphing that tens of thousands of brutes are 'standing by' to wreak violence, if he thinks he can get away with calling for it... and even if he doesn't. So let's dial in on that worst-fear (and Putin's final joy.)
== Seriously, guys? ==
Time for a reality check there, fellahs. Before you move or act on any of your blowhard plans, look around your basement scheme sessions. Take a guess who's wearing a wire... or just blabbing, the moment he leaves your parents' house.
Imbeciles think because they stockpiled a basement fulla guns they'd 'win.' But each jerk has just one trigger finger. Meanwhile, most of the NEW gun owners since 2001 have been liberals and minorities who are quieter about it and only buy what they might need. (It's why almost no liberals have called for an end to the 2nd amendment, only reasonable background checks.)
Given that the US military officer corps now hates the mindless-traitor GOP, where will any boogaloo bois action or Timothy McVeigh stuff lead? Maligning as "deep state" enemies the very men and women who defeated Hitler, thwarted Stalin and won the Cold War and the War on Terror, you've spewed venom at them for years, all without offering one scintilla of evidence. How was that smart?
In fact, the boogaloo/supremacist/ ranks are riddled with braggarts, informants and FBI undercover agents. And I give 30% odds we'll see massive sweeps.
Oh just one final thing, bois. These morons are fully vested into the Fox-Putin propelled meme of hate toward all fact-using professions, including not just military officers, but the doctors who save their lives and scientists saving the planet. So, let's ask: who will all the NERDS help, in this civil war you bois plan?
You may just have one trigger finger each, but the geeks you plan to war against know how to program as many robots and drones as they want. These are the folks who know cyber, genetics, bio, and nuclear stuff... and they know where your plantation lords have set up expensive apocalypse getaway mansions.
Hence. a piece of advice that confederates ignore every time they flash-start one of our 8 phases (so far) of civil war is this: Pick your enemies well. (You never do.)
== The Tale of Texas ==
And so we come to Sam Houston, hero of Texan Independence and the quintessential Texan-with-a-brain (and there are many, as we'll soon see.) Houston pleaded with his fellow Texans, both morally and pragmatically, not to follow the mad, emotional rush to treason and confederacy.
Alas, as has been the case for us - entreating our MAGA neighbors not to hate on science and fairness and factual reality and maturity - moral arguments seldom serve to quell these periodic fevers. MAGAs - as with their confed predecessors - take such appeals as signs of weakness.
But Sam Houston chided his contemporary versions of MAGAs. He told them that assuming Union folk won't fight would be a terrible mistake.
-- Sam Houston
Bois, bois... you had better hope that Biden wins and we get a period of administration by adults. Because your intent is clearly to grind the growing New America of universities and sci-tech and diversity and balance and negotiation into dust.
So let's be clear. When fully roused, WE WON'T LET YOU.
The 'given direction' we choose is the future, as you've chosen the feudal past. And if you force the issue, prepare to meet steady momentum and perseverance unseen since the Greatest Generation crushed Hitler.
== If appearances hold... ==
... and JB gets to save us by appointing 10,000 skilled and sane and honest adults to replace 10,000 crooks, lunatics and traitors, then that would make the biggest difference. But with a still-GOP Senate, not much will get passed, unless...
... there's a truth & reconciliation commission -- crossing party lines -- aiming above all to restore confidence in the existence of facts.
That is, it can begin with that innocuous purpose... but in the natural course of giving testimony immunity and all that, we might find out if I am right about DC being rife with blackmail victims who then became traitors. (Borat showed how trivial it is to lure these knuckleheads into compromising positions.) And if that proves true of a clutch of Senators, well, resignations and impeachments for major cause can change things a lot. Just saying.
It's all in Polemical Judo. A book that I hoped would be rendered obsolete by now! Partly because some folks were smart enough to actually use some of the 100+ tactics offered there (we'd not be in this mess right now!) And partly because, well, OMG OMG OMG the tension. Most of the chapters are still relevant, alas! And seem likely to remain so, for years. Alack.
This should not have been close.
== And for something completely different... ==
A tale of a train saved by a whale of a tail...
104 comments:
And that whale tail was plastic!!
Methinks the artist overdesigned its strength a tadge
The artist planned ahead.
As I suspect Tom Siddell did with the last couple of pages of Gunnerkrigg Court.
(Siddell usually maintains a buffer of about a dozen pages. For full effect, the link leads to Monday's page, but then move to the next one, published mid-week, and mid-count...)
Stunning comparisons between our present situation and the US elections of 1888 and 1892, including court packing, gerrymandering, a rush to admit new states (two Dakotas?), calls for violence, and Electoral College tricks violating the will of a big majority of voters. But especially worrisome... (I hope pertinent!) is an outgoing administration deliberately sabotaging the new one with theft from the treasury and a range of dirty tricks.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/worst-presidential-transition-1892-harrison-cleveland.html
A.F. Rey in the previous comments:
Then all we have to worry about is recounts, court challenges, etc. :(
And shenanigans at the state level.
If Biden has exactly 270 electoral votes, I will be on pins and needles knowing that there will be enormous pressure on any one faithless elector to change his vote. Or for the state legislature of Wisconsin to send its own slate of delegates in spite of the vote. Remember, Trump doesn't have to get 270, he just has to prevent Biden from doing so, because if it goes to the House of Representatives with one vote per state delegation, they'll throw it to Trump.
As the counting continues, my faith in at least some of my fellow Americans is being restored. Trump is bloviating about finding votes (i.e, counting votes already cast) in Michigan and Georgia, while it's turning out that huge numbers of mail-in votes are sitting on the post office floor in Miami. Biden probably should have won Florida. If Biden ends up with just exactly 270, I will not breathe a sigh of relief until the actual electoral vote is over in December.
Yep. The resident has 77 days to lay shit sandwiches wherever he wishes.
Trump now needs to win every state in play (barring Alaska, ironically!) But I was 'just' checking the state counts. Call me a naive furriner but, based on numbers alone and only 85% of votes counted, I wouldn't say Texas is safe for him just yet.
Dr Brin:
Stunning comparisons between our present situation and the US elections of 1888 and 1892,
The 1888 election was the last time, prior to 2000, that the electoral vote went to the loser of the popular vote. For most of my life, that situation was considered a quaint relic of the old days that would never happen again in our more enlightened times--that is, for those who thought about the electoral college at all.
As recently as 2012, private citizen Donald Trump, somehow thinking that Romney would win the popular vote but lose the EV, tweeted about how #UNFAIR! that would be. What a difference a few years makes, now that the Republican Party has realized that the electoral vote is the only way they can ever win again. No one is even talking about how many millions of votes Biden beat Trump by, because everyone is now aware that the popular vote is worth a bucket of warm piss.
My dad used to say that the electoral vote provided a more stable result, as (for example) Ronald Reagan could win by thin margins in many states, but it's obvious that he's winning every state (all exceptions duly noted). But lately, it's been the opposite. Hillary and Biden won successively more decisive popular votes, while the electoral vote gets more and more razor thin. No matter who ultimately prevails this time, we do not have the kind of decisive victory that engenders a peaceful acceptance.
Again--no matter who ultimately prevails, one thing has been made abundantly clear in this election and its aftermath. Both parties are not the same in a very crucial way. Democrats are the party of counting as many votes as possible. Republicans are the party of preventing as many votes as possible.
Personally, I think that the massive amount of votes that Biden has is a good thing. It will discourage the Republican Party from supporting Trump in a legal coup.
Think about it for a second. Biden already has a million more votes than Hillary won four years ago. And if California alone keeps the current percentage of votes, then I'd say by the time California finishes its vote count, Biden will be ahead by 5 million votes.
Now we've already seen widescale demonstrations due to police brutality. The Republican Party knows that the liberal base will go out there and demonstrate... and knowing that there are five million more Democratic voters with fires in the iron than Republican voters? That will encourage caution on the part of the Republican party because if they rile up the Democratic voter base... if you see actual Revolution? Do you honestly think anyone in the Republican Party will survive? No, they'll all be torn apart.
By stepping back and stating "Trump lost, and he needs to step down" they can seem mature and "decent" and avoid angering the masses. Without the Republican Party backing him, Trump has no real power. He becomes one angry voice having a tantrum demanding his own way.
I just hope Nevada holds, along with Arizona. I don't want to rely on Pennsylvania, or a miracle from Georgia or North Carolina. Let's come with 270 electoral votes to start with, and then if anything else works out? Then good. But having a secure bulkhead sooner rather than waiting for votes to trickle in is far more likely to dissuade the Republican Party from trying shenanigans.
Acacia who is still going to plan on fleeing to Canada for asylum, just in case.
Thank goodness for Omaha and the people living there and nearby.
Acacia,
I thought I was the one wearing rosy glasses. 8/
I don't think they are that scared of us Californians. My friends elsewhere don't want conflict, but they are all older guys and not so hot-headed. I don't have many friends who aren't like that. Kinda selection bias on my part.
I've seen quite a few others, though, who make it clear they are itching for a fight OR don't think we'd come across the country to them and wind up burning our own cities instead. We MIGHT be that stupid in early riots, but eventually we'd persuade each other to direct fire elsewhere. I don't want to encourage ANY of this, but it's really not that hard to take the fight to the guys who think they have us out-gunned. Many of them would welcome it, I think, but the result would be scary and ugly.
Ultimately, it will come down to whether my immediate neighbors see themselves as Americans first.
Acacia who is still going to plan on fleeing to Canada for asylum, just in case.
You might be disappointed as to whether they'll take us.
I hope that if it gets to actual pogroms and concentration camps, that might change.
I've also heard it's relatively easy to buy one's way into Costa Rica, although I have no idea if COVID has changed that.
* * *
Who ever thought Americans would have to think about what to do if their government turned against them? We really are two Americas now, and it's not rich vs poor or black vs white or even really urban vs rural. It's swagger vs compassion. One nation is horrified by (and resistant against) bullies, and the other nation adores them as saviors. One nation sees the mission of government to meet its populace's needs, while the other sees that mission as protecting the haves from their oppressors. One nation is dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal, while the other is dedicated to the proposition that their clique are the rightful owners and all others live here at their sufferance and for their benefit.
Going back and forth over which side ekes out an electoral win 50.1% to 49.9% doesn't solve anything. It might be time for a divorce, amicable or otherwise. I hope California will be lenient in their refugee policy toward Trumplandians.
Reposting something I wrote on Tumblr...
It’s interesting...
When you look at Electoral maps, most of the Republican states have their votes mostly counted now. Of the 23 States that have been declared for Trump, only one has only has under 80% of the vote counted, and 17 of them have 95% or more of the vote counted. And with all of that? There is a deficit of nearly 4,000,000 votes between Biden and Trump in favor of Biden. But California is still under 75% for its vote percentage counted, and only 7 Democratic states are at or above 95% of the vote counted.
My earlier estimate of the number of votes Biden will get over Trump may have been very pessimistic. Biden could very well blow Trump out of the water with 6,000,000 votes more counted for him than Trump. Even with all the lawsuits in the world, should Arizona and Nevada remain in Biden’s column, and especially if Pennsylvania goes for Biden... it is likely that the courts won’t support Trump’s effort to disrupt democracy and the Republican Party will accept what they got out of the election and walk away from Trump.
Things are still bad. Biden can’t do anything about the Supreme Court if the Republicans own the Senate, and they also ate into the Democratic Party’s hold on the House of Representatives. There are a lot of people out there (predominantly white) who have embraced racism, fascism, lying, and being hypocrites and who will continue to do so now that Trump has shown them that it’s “okay” to be a racist and fascist without repercussion.
But things could be far worse. Enough of us came out to tell Trump “we will not go silently into the night.” And even if we have a lot of people who’d have quietly accepted their neighbors being shoved into gas chambers... we’ve seen the enemy. It is complacence. It is laziness. It is turning a blind eye. And if we refuse to let this stand, if we strive to ensure that our country turn away from fascism? We may stand a chance.
Or I suppose we can help each other and flee this sinking ship. We can go to Europe and other nations, and leave America to become a cesspool of shit as it was stated to have become in “V for Vendetta” - which is a very surprisingly appropriate movie given the state of affairs right now. We can let Trump and his ilk win in Making America White Again... and they’ll learn that without immigrants and without prison labor, America is nothing.
Because ultimately? We are what makes this (or any) nation “great” - no matter what the color of our skin, how neurotypical we are, where we are on the LGBTQ spectrum, or however else we differ from each other... for it is with our differences that we come together and create something new and better than before.
Acacia
I told y'all I've been binge-watching the Adam West "Batman". Last night, I watched one of the goofiest episodes (which is saying a lot), "Surfs Up, Joker's Under" in which Batman and The Joker enter a surfing contest.
The thing is, now, every time I read about something Donald Trump said or tweeted, I "hear" it in Ceasar Romero's Joker voice. Most appropriate, I think.
It really is like breaking up with a girlfriend. Before my wife came along, I was notoriously bad at letting go when it was obvious that the break-up was necessary. Still influenced by Marvel Comics pathos, I pined for my first college girlfriend a good 10 years too long, and I was a depressed wreck for two years after the girlfriend immediately prior to my wife ended things.
The one lesson I finally learned, way too late, is that when it's time to fall out of love, it really is time.
My old flame, America, has developed a taste for a man in jackbooted uniform, and is embarrassed by my nerdiness. It's long past time to break up. Unlike Acacia, I don't have a particular new girlfriend in mind. I'll take consolation locally and with the people I really do care about. Other than that, it's long past time to be free of the bitch.
It's smart to see things from a Southerners point of view like Sam Houston. Although not a hero of mine because of the War of 1812 and his iffy relationship with the Cherokee. We seem to be living through a second siege of Atlanta at the tallying tables.
"Civil war... What did the words mean? Was there any such thing as 'foreign war'? Was not all warfare between men warfare between brothers?"
- Victor Hugo
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/opinion/election-2020-exit-polls.html
Black men on the other hand have been inching away from the Democrats in recent elections, and continued that drift in this election. In 2008, 5 percent of Black men voted for John McCain; in 2012, 11 percent voted for Mitt Romney; in 2016, 13 percent voted for Trump; and, this year 18 percent voted for Trump.
These men were specifically targeted by the Trump campaign, and that targeting may well have worked. Democrats are going to have to pour some energy into specifics listening to and understanding these Black men. They are still the least likely group of men to vote Republican, but this trend away from Democrats is undeniable at this point.
I don't know if there are any actual black Americans "here", and I don't need anyone else whitesplain', but I'm genuinely curious to understand why black men would vote to keep the party of "Black Lives DON'T Matter!!!" in power. That's not a rhetorical question--I'd really like to know.
“The idea that gay men — a demographic that typically skews left — would vote for Donald Trump at a higher percentage than U.S. citizens overall would no doubt be very surprising were it to happen. And another surprise: 10 percent of the American gay men who took Hornet’s survey say they ‘do not support [Donald Trump] at all’ but will vote for him nonetheless.”
That last sentence blows my mind. What does that even mean?
Reflecting my current pessimism, even if Biden is declared the winner...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/opinion/trump-biden-election-2020.html
...
“Many Republican senators and congressional representatives — like Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and John Cornyn in Texas — won by hugging Trump,” said Gautam Mukunda, author of “Indispensable: When Leaders Really Matter.” “That means that Trumpism is the future of the G.O.P.
“The tactically unique thing about Trumpism is that it never even tries to get the support of the majority of Americans. So the G.O.P. will continue with the strategy of using every legal, but democratically deeply harmful, way to control power even though most Americans vote against them — like the way they just crammed through two Supreme Court justices.”
That means all the stresses on the American system of government will continue to grow, Mukunda added, because in our antiquated electoral system, Republicans theoretically can control both the White House and the Senate despite the desires of a large majority of the American people. “No system can survive that kind of stress,” he concluded. “It will break at some point.”
...
I confess that the hardest conversations I had Tuesday night were with my daughters. I so badly want to tell them that all is going to be OK, that we’ve been through bad patches as a country before. And I hope that will turn out to be the case — that whoever wins this election will draw the right conclusion that we simply cannot go on tearing one another apart.
But I could not, in all honesty, tell them that with any confidence. I am certain “the better angels of our nature” are still out there. But our politics and our political system right now are not inspiring them to emerge at the scale and speed that we so desperately need.
I'm a bit taken aback by the pessimism for America. As an outsider who has travelled and worked in your fair land (and often in red states), I see bright (even 'Martian') days ahead for you. Perhaps take a broader look at the world and see that differences exist everywhere, even between friends.
For example, some folk in these here parts call 1812 the 'War of Southern Aggression' :)
I like the way the New York Times is showing the map with the electoral vote totals at the top. Instead of including those states where one or the other candidate is in the lead, they are showing only the totals which have been actually clinched yet. At the moment, that's Biden 253 to Trump 214.
I like that because it's an antidote to the meme that a candidate in the lead so far deserves the win, and that if votes coming in later change the result, it has somehow been "stolen". The stormTrumpers out there now think that if they can "stop the count", then their candidate gets to keep the lead he currently has in a particular state. The Times EV map demonstrates that the count isn't over yet.
In the time of Bush v Gore, much political hay was made of the fact that in all the back-and-forth wrangling, Bush held his lead all that time. It never shifted back and forth between the two candidates. The longer that went on, the more it was made to feel as if Bush was the winner, and Gore was attempting to overturn a done deal. The Times EV map demonstrates that, in counting EVs, Biden is clearly in the lead. In the scheme of things, it doesn't really mean much, but it feels different this time.
I hope that if it gets to actual pogroms and concentration camps, that might change.
If it gets that far, Canada won't be much help, because (a) our economy is too intertwined with your's to go against your government too much, and (b) our military and police couldn't hold off your's — and if your country is that far gone, what makes you think they won't be willing to attack us?
Didn't HANDMAID'S TALE show a Canada holding its own? Especially with millions of blue-USian refugees?
Didn't HANDMAID'S TALE show a Canada holding its own? Especially with millions of blue-USian refugees?
That's because the resistance of the Baptists down South had worn away most of the country's military power, IIRC. :)
@Larry Hart
Re: Gay Trump supporters:
“That last sentence blows my mind. What does that even mean?”
For the conservative gay Republicans I’ve known over the past 30 years, they valued money over everything else—getting it, keeping it, minimizing taxes or avoiding taxes when possible. To the person, they believed that the Dems were fiscally irresponsible while the Republicans were always fiscally prudent.
As to their civil rights, many (not all) were happy to stay closeted (and silent) while the progressive, liberal and centrist gay activists did the years of hard work of gaining LGBT civil rights. The HIV/AIDS epidemic changed that dynamic somewhat but the cost was so many deaths.
I have no explanation or understanding of gay Trump supporters. I do know that many gay men believe that wealth and power will protect them from an anti-LGBTQ administration. But history tells us otherwise.
AFR, Atwood is a dope. The Gileads would not have made a move without incorporating the S. Baptists. No. A huge part of the US military, including ALL of the US Navy, ould have moved to Canada making it a major nuclear power.
A few random thoughts.
Biden will likely win a narrow EC victory. Close races should be looked at and where appropriate recounted. You'd demand the same were the tables turned, and well you should.
Oddly the Conservative half of America is pretty much OK with this. It's not seen as a referendum on Conservative thought generally. On Trump's persona and the general weirdness of the times, sure. But consider also that it appears that the Senate stays Republican. And that the House of Reps is implausibly getting close to parity. I did not see the Republican gains there, in that most representative of institutions. Having the Dem's lose ten or so seats. Huh.
And so life goes on. I don't think the race will be decided in the courts unless there is a degree of chicanery that I've not seen mentioned yet. And it would have been. Forget the chump polls, both campaigns have had internal data for months that showed how close it was going to be. Both side have had legal response teams prepped and ready. Again, as they should.
So far it's background noise. Some absentee ballots dumped by a lazy (non Brinian) Postman. The usual Wisconsin trick of holding back a batch of valid ballots until the very last minute. (Remember how agitated y'all were when it was Waukesha County doing this a few years back). Plus the usual administrative incompetence of Philly.
Divided government with a sluggish executive, an originalist SC, and with energized Senate and House of opposite inclinations? We could do worse. Let each of them pursue whatever inquiries they deem appropriate so long as they actually find time to legislate.
I'm OK with this reality. Sorry it was not the Blue Wave/Repudiation/Crushing of the Enemy and hearing the Lamentation of their Women that some of you were expecting. It's not that kind of country.
Now of course the Georgia Senate races that may go to runoffs will be outrageous but the world is a messy place.
I'd wish Pres Elect Biden the best of luck, something he'll assuredly need, but with the weirdness of the 2020 election I suppose there is still a small chance of a major surprise ahead. Doubt it though.
Pachydermis
I am not so sure that we are actually as divided a nation as it often seems these days. Or rather, we are in a very real sense. But in a very real sense the division has been artificial created, or instigated with malice aforethought.
There has are many polls, from reputable sources, that collectively show that a clear majority of USians want many of the same things when it comes to nearly all of the big issues of our time, quite often a large majority. Things that currently are usually considered to be liberal, leftist, socialist. The following list shows what I mean, from Most Americans Are Liberal, Even If They Don’t Know It (click through for links to sources).
The Economy
82 percent of Americans think wealthy people have too much power and influence in Washington.
69 percent think large businesses have too much power and influence in Washington.
59 percent—and 72 percent of likely voters—think Wall Street has too much power and influence in Washington.
78 percent of likely voters support stronger rules and enforcement on the financial industry.
65 percent of Americans think our economic system “unfairly favors powerful interests.”
59 percent of Americans—and 43 percent of Republicans—think corporations make “too much profit.”
Inequality
82 percent of Americans think economic inequality is a “very big” (48 percent) or “moderately big” (34 percent) problem. Even 69 percent of Republicans share this view.
66 percent of Americans think money and wealth should be distributed more evenly.
72 percent of Americans say it is “extremely” or “very” important, and 23 percent say it is “somewhat important,” to reduce poverty.
59 percent of registered voters—and 51 percent of Republicans—favor raising the maximum amount that low-wage workers can make and still be eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit, from $14,820 to $18,000.
Money in Politics
96 percent of Americans—including 96 percent of Republicans—believe money in politics is to blame for the dysfunction of the U.S. political system.
84 percent of Americans—including 80 percent of Republicans—believe money has too much influence in politics.
78 percent of Americans say we need sweeping new laws to reduce the influence of money in politics.
73 percent of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.
Taxes
80 percent of Americans think some corporations don’t pay their fair share of taxes.
78 percent think some wealthy people don’t pay their fair share of taxes.
76 percent believe the wealthiest Americans should pay higher taxes.
60 percent of registered voters believe corporations pay too little in taxes.
87 percent of Americans say it is critical to preserve Social Security, even if it means increasing Social Security taxes paid by wealthy Americans.
67 percent of Americans support lifting the cap to require higher-income workers to pay Social Security taxes on all of their wages.
Minimum Wage
66 percent of Americans favor raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour.
59 percent favor raising the federal minimum wage to $12 an hour.
48 percent support raising the national minimum wage to $15 an hour. (A survey of registered voters found that 54 percent favored a $15 minimum wage.)
63 percent of registered voters think the minimum wage should be adjusted each year by the rate of inflation.
Workers' Rights
61 percent of Americans—including 42 percent of Republicans—approve of labor unions.
74 percent of registered voters—including 71 percent of Republicans—support requiring employers to offer paid parental and medical leave.
78 percent of likely voters favor establishing a national fund that offers all workers 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.
Health Care
60 percent of Americans believe “it is the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage.”
60 percent of registered voters favor “expanding Medicare to provide health insurance to every American.”
58 percent of the public favors replacing Obamacare with “a federally funded healthcare program providing insurance for all Americans.”
64 percent of registered voters favor their state accepting the Obamacare plan for expanding Medicaid in their state.
Education
63 percent of registered voters—including 47 percent of Republicans—of Americans favor making four-year public colleges and universities tuition-free.
59 percent of Americans favor free early-childhood education.
Climate Change & the Environment
76 percent of voters are “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about climate change.
68 percent of voters think it is possible to protect the environment and protect jobs.
72 percent of voters think it is a “bad idea” to cut funding for scientific research on the environment and climate change.
59 percent of voters say more needs to be done to address climate change.
Gun Safety
84 percent of Americans support requiring background checks for all gun buyers.
77 percent of gun owners support requiring background checks for all gun buyers.
Criminal Justice
57 percent of Americans believe police officers generally treat blacks and other minorities differently than they treat whites.
60 percent of Americans believe the recent killings of black men by police are part of a broader pattern of how police treat black Americans (compared with 39 percent who believe they are isolated incidents).
Immigration
68 percent of Americans—including 48 percent of Republicans—believe the country’s openness to people from around the world “is essential to who we are as a nation.” Just 29 percent say that “if America is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation.”
65 percent of Americans—including 42 percent of Republicans—say immigrants strengthen the country “because of their hard work and talents.” Just 26 percent say immigrants are a burden “because they take our jobs, housing and health care.”
64 percent of Americans think an increasing number of people from different races, ethnic groups, and nationalities makes the country a better place to live. Only 5 percent say it makes the United States a worse place to live, and 29 percent say it makes no difference.
76 percent of registered voters—including 69 percent of Republicans—support allowing undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children (Dreamers) to stay in the country. 58 percent think Dreamers should be allowed to stay and become citizens if they meet certain requirements. Another 18 percent think they should be allowed to stay and become legal residents, but not citizens. Only 15 percent think they should be removed or deported from the country.
Abortion & Women's Health
58 percent of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
68 percent of Americans—including 54 percent of Republicans—support the requirement for private health insurance plans to cover the full cost of birth control.
Same-Sex Marriage
62 percent of Americans—including 70 percent of independents and 40 percent of Republicans—support same-sex marriage.
74 percent of millennials (born after 1981) support same-sex marriage.
The real division is something that has been built by persistent intent over the past 25+ years by one political party. They've rewritten history, redefined words and have brainwashed a significant percentage of the population to respond to words like liberal, Democrat, Progressive, and Social with a Pavlovian-like autonomic disgust reaction. Those numbers up above suggest that the issue isn't that they don't want the same things we want, or that their values are too different from ours, but that we just have to find ways to break the spell of the delusion the RP and its operators have conditioned them to believe.
I believe it is naive to assume the powers behind the GOP will shrug off loss of the presidency, because they "have the Senate and the Court, an now they can jettison their clown-liability safe from liberal legislation" I deem that fallacious for two major reasons:
1) As I show in Polemical Judo, there are bills that Pelosi can put forward that would be political suicide for many GOP Senators to oppose, even with a dem president ready to sign them. Among these would be to simply give medicare coverage to all CHILDREN, a move so guaranteed of parental enthusiasm that anyone opposing it would face toasting. It's actually a long list. The only way to prevent this is to fight for Trump to stay in office.
2) More urgently from the perspective of GOP power brokers - and making me doubt they'll just roll over for a party resent now - is that their Senate and Court majorities will do nothing to prevent the appointment of a sane and vigorous and honest Attorney General and all that entails.
Consider history. When GW Bush entered office in January 2001, he shifted many agents of the state to opening every Clinton Administration file in search of 'smoking guns' and indictable crimes. In fact, they found (effectively) nothing whatsoever. Moreover it can be agued that shift in agency emphasis away from terrorism contributed to our blindness before the 9/11 attacks... and hence was at minimum dereliction, or even treason.
In sharp contrast, what do you expect this time, even if Justice and other departments simply become "normal" again? Not even engaging in vendetta. (Though that's what Foxites will howl - and counter-memes must be ready!) Simply by getting out of the way of stymied FBI, counter-intelligence, grand jury and state prosecutor investigations, such a new Justice Department will unleash a dike-breaking of massive proportions. Just the Deutsche Bank records will send scores to jail.
Now consider if a new president actually created an empowered, Truth and Reconciliation Commission that included all sane interests, with some powers of clemency for testimony, backed by whistle blower rewards offered officially... or by some friendly billionaire, as I suggested in Polemical Judo? Giving the blackmailed a way to retire without jail? Giving henchmen a chance to fess-up profitably against some of the electoral cheats we've long (and recently) seen?
Are there Democrats who would have reason to fear, as well? Sure. And giving such folks a gentle path out of DC would also seem a good idea, though in ways that were proportional, not the self-inflicted suicides we saw with Al Franken etc.
Pachydermis, currently the difference in the Popular Vote is 4 million. This is with only 75% of California counted, which is at a 67% to 33% voting ratio for Biden to Trump. When it is done (especially given the vast majority of Red States are 95% or more done in counting ballots), that spread will be upward of six million, and most definitely above five million. This is far above the 2.9 million disenfranchised Democrat voters in 2016.
At which point is the Electoral College a cheat? When it's in excess of 10 million? 20 million? At which point does a minority of voters having power over the majority of Americans and forcing their views down the throats of that majority a bad thing? Never? After all, it's the Republicans you defend and thus you seem to have dice in that game.
If Joe Biden earns 270 Electoral Votes, he is President. It is not "squeaking by" because there will be over five million more people who voted for Biden than who voted for Trump. And if there was no Electoral College? There would be no question over who is President of the United States right now. None at all.
Acacia
Dennis M Davidson:
That last sentence blows my mind. What does that even mean?”
For the conservative gay Republicans I’ve known over the past 30 years, they valued money over everything else—getting it, keeping it, minimizing taxes or avoiding taxes when possible.
My incredulousness was not at the mere fact of gay Republicans. My "What does that even mean?" was directed at the specific sentence, "10 percent of the American gay men who took Hornet’s survey say they ‘do not support [Donald Trump] at all’ but will vote for him nonetheless.” How do you not support someone (at all) and simultaneously vote to put or keep him in power? It's nonsense. Why not, "I'm not racist--I just hate black people."?
I have no explanation or understanding of gay Trump supporters. I do know that many gay men believe that wealth and power will protect them from an anti-LGBTQ administration. But history tells us otherwise.
I was going to say. I'm sure there were Jews who voted for Hitler in 1932 for precisely the same reasons--he would be good for their pocketbooks, and their wealth would insulate them from the pogroms that would be inflicted on Jews from those places like Poland or Czechoslovakia. But the thing is, we have that example as to where fascism inevitably leads to work with now. It's not just the gay Trumpists I don't understand, but the black and Jewish ones as well.
@Pachydermis2,
I won't argue with most of your long post.
This one, though:
...an originalist SC, ...
That's the talking point--that conservative judges are "originalist", and that liberals object to them because they want to make shit up that isn't in the text. But I will remind you of this when the Barrett court somehow finds that "whole number of persons" somehow means something other than just what those words mean. Even before the Trump era, those "originalists" were finding (good word, that) that money is speech, that the Voting Rights Act was outdated in its assumptions (despite having been renewed by both parties in the 21st Century), and that every county in the state of Florida has a right to be treated equally.
I look forward to the explanation of how conservative judicial activism counts as originalist.
Darrell E:
I am not so sure that we are actually as divided a nation as it often seems these days. Or rather, we are in a very real sense. But in a very real sense the division has been artificial created, or instigated with malice aforethought.
There has are many polls, from reputable sources, that collectively show that a clear majority of USians want many of the same things when it comes to nearly all of the big issues of our time, quite often a large majority. Things that currently are usually considered to be liberal, leftist, socialist.
The divide then is between people who vote for the party most likely to actually achieve those things that they want, and those who vote for the party that actively opposes those things. Way too many Americans vote Republican, and then blame Democrats for not accomplishing enough--so they vote for more Republicans. It's like a stand up comedian (or Dave Sim) blaming his audience for so few of them showing up.
Darrell E:
60 percent of Americans believe “it is the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage.”
Good example of what I was stating above. They want nationalized health care, but then they vote for Senators who will not pass such a thing and a president who act to overturn what Democrats did pass.
Liberals are apparently the X-Men, "Hated and feared by those they've sworn to protect."
David
Why don't you just outline in detail this Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Who refers cases to it? Who determines Truth? Would public statements only be placed in evidence? Or would anonymous tips and data from wiretaps be allowed? What sort of Reconciliation would be asked or demanded of those it deemed "guilty"? What would be the consequences of refusal to appear or to comply with rulings?
I know this was first proposed by others and suspect you are repeatedly mentioning this more to get a rise out of folks than out of any real desire to see it done.
What would prevent a subsequent administration from instituting another Commission which took a different view of things? What would be the chilling effect on anyone wanting to enter public life knowing that they could be, presumably, denounced and ruined with a change in administration?
I might be misconstruing your intent here, and so am asking for a detailed description.
My initial reaction - shared I suspect by most of your fellow citizens - is that this is a horrific idea from which inestimable harm would occur. But I've been around this neighborhood a long time. Sometimes you are just a-punkin' us. Albeit in an unoriginal and unentertaining fashion.
Without the Approval of the Citizen's Commission I remain faithfully yours;
Pachydermis
@Darrell E,
THIS is why, despite umpteen percent of all Americans wanting the same things, we are two nations on the verge of a divorce:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/opinion/trump-supporters-election-2020.html
...
The United States is not at all united. We live in two countries. In one, people are willing to grapple with racism and bigotry. We acknowledge that women have a right to bodily autonomy, that every American has a right to vote and the right to health care and the right to a fair living wage. We understand that this is a country of abundance and that the only reason economic disparity exists is because of a continued government refusal to tax the wealthy proportionally.
The other United States is committed to defending white supremacy and patriarchy at all costs. Its citizens are the people who believe in QAnon conspiracy theories and take Mr. Trump’s misinformation as gospel. They see America as a country of scarcity, where there will never be enough of anything to go around, so it is every man and woman for themselves.
They are not concerned with the collective, because they believe any success they achieve by virtue of their white privilege is achieved by virtue of merit. They see equity as oppression. They are so terrified, in fact, that as the final votes were counted in Detroit, a group of them swarmed the venue shouting, “Stop the count.” In Arizona, others swarmed a venue shouting, “Count the votes.” The citizens of this version of America only believe in democracy that serves their interests.
...
Almost hidden and uncommented-on in all of this appears to be the death of touch screen voting. Oh sure, some cheater states still use it and it likely warped some result, but far less than normal, since this years almost all people marked paper ballots (especially to mail) or at least got to look over a paper (auditable) receipt. Let’s put a stake through the heart of that cheat. There are others.
Pachy you are buying into the subjectivist/relativist sickness. There are such things as facts. And there are men and women of stature who can serve on such a commission whose word would carry weight in gaining consensus acceptance of facts.
And varied versions of my bar bet wagers would help corner though who care about their cash. There are many ways to resurrect FACT... you have read my FACT ACT but I urge you to refresh, because you are buying into a disease.
Instead of going back to read older stuff, I'm asking you for specifics about the rather alarmingly dubbed Truth and Reconciliation Commission. I've asked my questions....and I think you are evading them. I did give you an out....if you are not serious, say so. If you are....come forth with details.
This is a potentially awful idea as demonstrated in any number of societies of the recent past, none of which any of us would actually enjoy living in.
Pachydermis
WHat you take for evasiveness (rather self-centeredly) is actually lack of time. If I am going to answer those questions, (I will... and have before), then I will do it for more than just you. What value is that to anyone? I referred to to an "old" posting because it is entirely valid and you show every sign of not recalling or understanding any of it.
Didn't HANDMAID'S TALE show a Canada holding its own? Especially with millions of blue-USian refugees?
It did, but Atwood'd world-building ignored how Canada managed to keep its economy going. The Testaments didn't really fill in any more details either.
And seriously, our army is 42k including all reserves. You've got over 2 million. I'll grant our troops tend to be highly motivated and trained, but asking them to fight off 50 times their number is a bit much.
Truth and Reconciliation Commissions have existed before in other countries, such as post-Apartheid South Africa. It's not an ooga-booga scary concept. If anything, I think the ones I have read about weren't harsh enough, but maybe that's just me and they generally worked as well as they could in historical context.
What interests me is the Czech Lustration, a "cleansing" of Communist apparatchiks from the government.
According to a law passed on 4 October 1991, all employees of the StB, the Communist-era secret police, were blacklisted from designated public offices, including the upper levels of the civil service, the judiciary, procuracy, Security Information Service (BIS), army positions, management of state owned enterprises, the central bank, the railways, senior academic positions and the public electronic media. This law remained in place in the Czech Republic after the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, and expired in 2000.[citation needed]
The lustration laws in Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic were not intended to serve as justice, but to ensure that events such as the Communist coup of February 1948 did not happen again.[8]
...
Lustration has been compared to denazification in post-World War II Europe, and the de-Ba'athification in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq.[4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lustration
Robert (from Canada) :
And seriously, our army is 42k including all reserves. You've got over 2 million. I'll grant our troops tend to be highly motivated and trained, but asking them to fight off 50 times their number is a bit much.
Would you accept American refugees if they immediately volunteered to join the army?
Pachydermis2:
This is a potentially awful idea as demonstrated in any number of societies of the recent past, none of which any of us would actually enjoy living in.
I'm not exactly enjoying living in this one.
Re Handmaid scenario - which is NOT plausible at any level, but powerful polemic - one has to assume Canada is augmented by half the US Army and almost all of the Navy.
And one has no sympathy for the husband, who should be fighting in Chicago.
“The idea that gay men — a demographic that typically skews left — would vote for Donald Trump at a higher percentage than U.S. citizens overall would no doubt be very surprising were it to happen."
Hornet is a dating app, which may create a biased sample of gay men in general (who knows how), in addition to the self-selection effects of survey response.
They've added a caveat to the survey results explaining this: https://hornet.com/about/hornet-asked-10000-gay-men-to-weigh-in-on-the-upcoming-u-s-election-donald-trump/
I guess they ruffled some feathers!
Too good not to share, off of Stonekettle's Twitter feed (although not by Wright himself)...
It’s become increasingly clear, Trumps only path to 270, is some combination of Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig and liposuction.
Dr Brin:
Re Handmaid scenario - which is NOT plausible at any level, but powerful polemic -
I'm glad you included that last clause. So many here seem to forget how fiction works. Social commentary can be made by exaggerating and amplifying current conditions and exploring what might follow from the premise. Detailed analysis of what it would take to actually get from the real world to that fictional premise--or the unlikeliness that we would ever reach it--is metaphorical reverse alchemy, turning gold into lead.
And one has no sympathy for the husband, who should be fighting in Chicago.
I admittedly only read the book once, but I don't recall any revelation about the disposition of the husband. Was this something from the tv series that was different from the book?
Both Pennsylvania and Georgia have flipped to Biden as of 9 a.m EST, 11/6. So tell me, Pachydermis, is 303 Electoral Votes substantive enough for you, or is that still "squeaking by a victory" since Trump earned 304 Electoral votes?
Acacia
Since the likely outcome seems to be a Biden presidency blockaded by a McConnell Senate...
This time, if Biden fails to accomplish objectives because he is blocked by an obstructionist Senate, we have to make it abundantly clear to voters which side is to blame. We can't go through this Obama thing again where the Democratic president is blamed for the Republican Congress's failures, and is then punished by the election of more Republicans. In 2022, the prevailing meme must be "Enable the president--don't obstruct him."
Some musings on Maine...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/opinion/susan-collins-was-never-going-to-lose.html
And those very same ads turned her opponent from the accomplished speaker of the Maine House into simply: not Susan Collins. I had a nice chat a few weeks back with a clipboard-carrying Gideon-advocate who wandered up my driveway to make sure I was voting. She kept coming around to the point that it wasn’t enough for Joe Biden to defeat Mr. Trump, but that the Senate had to be taken back from Senator Mitch McConnell. I kept on about the foolishness of nationalizing local races. The question had to be who was best for Maine; any concerns about Mr. McConnell were the sole and exclusive property of the people of Kentucky. I also complained that she was really asking me to vote against Ms. Collins rather than for Ms. Gideon, who seemed to have lost her political personality when she became the standard bearer of a constant negative media blitz.
I'd actually like to agree with this, but McConnell himself is the one who nationalizes local races by proclaiming that "The American People" voted for a Senate which would oppose President Obama's court picks. I will not concede that they can have it both ways--voting without regard to national politics and then insisting that the outcome was a national referendum.
If Mainers really feel that obstructionism is in their local interests, then so be it. But if they're saying that the party they elect locally is incidental to national outcomes (which do affect them locally), then they are living in a dream world. Or more likely, making excuses why they enable national Republicans without accepting the responsibility for doing so.
Yet two days before the vote, a car with out-of-state plates came up my driveway and two more Gideon champions hopped out and began ringing the bell and pounding unstintingly on two separate doors to our house. My wife was more than miffed as our youngest was napping, and asked the canvassers just what in the hell was wrong with them. They answered by asking my wife if she had heard of the Sara Gideon campaign. Dear Katherine suggested they buzz off and was pretty annoyed by the whole encounter. She’d already decided her vote but pointed out that such an off-key visit could easily have swayed her view.
If I had to guess, I would say that those were Republicans pretending to be Democrats in order to make voters angry at Democrats. Like those robocalls at 3am demanding that you vote for a candidate so that you'll be so pissed off that you're sure to not do so. I'd put the odds of those being actual Gideon supporters--thinking that their behavior would somehow help their candidate--between slim and none.
Funny how this works...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/opinion/how-to-fix-elections.html
The violent fringe on the left helped Mr. Trump. The violent fringe on the right, sadly, did not appear to hurt him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/us/politics/trump-white-house-disinformation.html
If there was little indication that the disinformation push was helping the Trump campaign in court, where it was seeking to use small instances of worker error or technical fouls to challenge Democratic ballots, it nonetheless seemed likely to do one thing: persuade a large swath of American voters that any Biden presidency was being stolen through illegal and unconstitutional means.
So tell me, and yes, I mean people here on this list, how it would be so pearl-clutchingly terrible if both sides refused to accept a loss as legitimate, so since the Republicans do so, Democrats must unilaterally disarm and not go down that road, accepting any cheating result because agreement is more important than actual election process.
Acacia
If those states hold it would be more than a squeaker. Less than a Blue Wave also, which was my point. The exact margin in swing states might put a bit more "squeak" in the perception of the outcome. So I've been hearing for four years regards the 2016 election.
The other results, House, Senate....still in flux.
Larry I'm not sure if you are referring to me in the "people on the list". I think I've made my position on accepting election results quite clear. This does not preclude concern over future elections where control of Senate/House etc might be on the line. I think we can do better regards transparency in the vote tallying process. Perhaps you agree?
Well, life goes on. Somewhat cheerier without the prospect of Donald Trump talking all the time. I'll offer two other random thoughts.
1. The telecommuter suburbanization of America seems like a deal to me. Locally there are counties west of Madison that have always been conservative farm country. They now go light blue in sympathy with the indigo mothership of Dane County (Madison, UW, etc.). I get it....it is a beautiful part of the state and if your job does not require you to live in the more expensive and sometimes on fire Madison, well, why not? See also Arizona and to a lesser extent parts of TX getting folks exiting California. Maybe Montana too. Big with celebs I understand.
2. I did read David's FACT concept a while back. I'm asking questions that are of more immediacy, are in more detail, and are reflecting current political changes. Factor in the role of Big Tech in shaping the reality we experience for instance. I'll admit the Kavanaugh hearings left me with a very negative view of what Dems in search of Power would do to Truth. But fair's fair, time to reflect and let events catch up is reasonable.
I only look at the outside world once or twice a day on these great, late fall days.
Pachydermis
LH.... do try to combine some of your missives so I have less approval clicks to make. You can separate them with spaces and a couple dashes, as I do.
---
But thanks for the Jim Wright quote.
Pachydermis2:
I think I've made my position on accepting election results quite clear.
If that position is that resisting a cheat is equivalent to resisting a result one simply doesn't like, then yes, you've made it clear. If your position is something else, then (self-evidently) you have not.
I think we can do better regards transparency in the vote tallying process. Perhaps you agree?
I do agree, but I'm not sure what you're getting at. Do you mean that more Republican intimidators should have been permitted access as "poll watchers"? No, I don't agree with that (obviously). If you mean that, say, news organizations should do a better job of informing the public that both parties do have a certain number of registered poll watchers in every county in every state, so no party is being "prevented from observing", then yes, I agree.
Somewhat cheerier without the prospect of Donald Trump talking all the time.
Homer Simpson voice: "Now, who's being naive, Marge?"
Seriously, do you think even private-citizen Trump is going to be quiet? Ever? I wouldn't be surprised if he replaces cancer-stricken Limbaugh.
Unless, of course, he flees the country, which I would be able to live with.
Bah, Pachy brings up the Kavenaugh hearings again. The lesson there is simple - don't nominate someone who attempted rape to SCOTUS. Don't nominate someone that spends $200k on baseball tickets, all while making $190k a year. MY only complaint about the Kavenaugh hearings is that he hasn't been served his summons for perjury. Yet. I'm still writing my congressperson demanding that the perjury charge be pursued against Kavenaugh and I urge you all to do the same.
It's time for hardball with the fascist GOP. Go after the finances of the party. GO after the finances of McConnell, et al. We must do it now, or there will not be another chance.
We are now pushing 6 million more votes for Biden than Trump. Sounds like a blue wave to me.
Note that two places where touchscreen voting was eliminated since 2016 are in the last stages of counting narrow margins that favor Biden. As our host says, paper trails.
There is a tradition in America of not prosecuting GOP lawbreakers. That tradition must end. Now.
Lawyers representing Trump in fight to get PA vote total to SCOTUS have close ties to Kavenaugh. One of them helped Kavenaugh get through his confirmation process.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/nov/05/trump-lawyers-supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh
@Pachydermis2
Holding Trump accountable:
Start with his fiscal crimes; white collar crimes are non-partisan!
Follow the money.
Publish his tax records.
Prosecute in State and Federal courts.
Trump and his family have a long history of getting away with massive financial fraud:
bank fraud, tax fraud, scamming business partners, violation of the emoluments clause, Kushner’s billion dollar real-estate deal with Qatari investors, campaign finance kickbacks to Trump companies.
I've been thinking for a while that either Donald Trump would die in prison or I would. Starting to think it might not be me!
--------------------------------------------
Here's a judo move Joe Biden could do not long after day 1. He won't, but I don't think there's any GOOD reason he could not... He could remove all Republicans from the FCC board and issue an executive order rescinding Ronald Reagan's executive order ending the Fairness Doctrine, and placing it back in force exactly as it was worded prior to Reagan. He could answer all criticism by blandly noting that broadcast media managed perfectly well with it in the good old days so many people want to return to, that it would apply equally to liberal and conservative broadcast media using scarce public airwaves, that cable media are unaffected, and that Reagan was perfectly within his rights to discontinue it, and the current president is equally within his rights to reinstate it. A future president could do as Reagan had done.
The effect on political talk radio (95% right wing) would be devastating, and local TV stations run by the far right Sinclair would be curbed as well. Even if this only lasted a couple of years, it could seriously weaken right wing messaging.
... the right complain that they're being censored anyway, the whining shits...
-----------------------------------
HOW did the R's manage to hold vulnerable Senate seats held by odious persons?
Here in North Carolina, the 'nominate crusty old Democratic military officers' gambit was a total bust. Maybe it would have helped if Cunningham could have stayed out of a sexual scandal. Maybe it would have made no diff. But damn it, Cunningham!
-----------------------------------
This banger of a meme brought to you by GRR Martin's Lady Olenna and your Postal Service.
Assuming the current trend holds, let me be the first here to say:
TRUMP 2024!
Shoot me now. I can't go through this again.
TCB.... excellent! I shall post it!
I'd like to think there's little likelihood of Trump actually getting a nomination in 2024. For all the GOP has been covering his ass, I suspect most are breathing a sign of relief that he'll be gone (by some definition of gone) and they won't have to be dealing with him or making constant excuses for him anymore. They will miss the power of having the presidency, but they will not miss the rest of the things that came with having him there. As a minority party they can bitch and moan and obstruct and do all the things they are best at, and they already got their judges. This is probably the best case scenario for them.
That being said I have no idea whether the GOP will be effective at putting down any attempts for him to win a primary, given the last time where they ran so many candidates who were not willing to bite a bullet to narrow the field (unlike the Democrats who I assume learned well from that scenario and did their best to make sure they stood a chance- we can argue later about if Bernie actually could have pulled it off).
Actually I think the biggest risk to the GOP is that he decides to run as a 3rd party, or tries to start a new party. Perhaps he threatens them with that to get another chance.
Some are saying that there's a reason some top goppers are trying to quell the rage, instead of backing Trump's call for hot civil war. It is posited that the powers behind the GOP will shrug off loss of the presidency, because they have the Senate and the Court, and now they can jettison their clown-liability safe from liberal legislation. Also, they know the country is actually governed far better under democrats and hence their investments will do better, while McConnell's Senate majority prevents actual action. I deem this fallacious for several major reasons:
1) As I show in Polemical Judo, there are bills that Pelosi can put forward that would be political suicide for many GOP Senators to oppose, even with a Democrat president ready to sign them. Among these would be to immediately give medicare coverage to all CHILDREN, a move so guaranteed of parental enthusiasm that anyone opposing it would face toasting. A win-win since there are two Senate races coming up in Georgia in January.
there's actually a long list of such bills that - while much less than what liberals want - would corner the corrupt McConnellocracy with lose-lose choices. And hence, the win-win for his mafia described above doesn't hold. The only way to prevent this is to fight for Trump to stay in office.
2) More urgently from the perspective of GOP power brokers - and making me doubt they'll just roll over for a party reset now - is that their Senate and Court majorities will do nothing to prevent the appointment of 10,000 skilled grownups to replace 10,000 corrupt lunatics and blackmailed Putin Shills — especially a sane and vigorous and honest Attorney General.
Consider history. When GW Bush entered office in January 2001, he shifted many agents of the state to opening every Clinton Administration file in search of 'smoking guns' and indictable crimes. In fact, they found (effectively) nothing whatsoever to impugn what was (til Obama) the most honest administration in the history of the Republic. To the point: it can be agued that Bush's shift in agency emphasis away from terrorism to a wild goose chase seeking Clinton dirt contributed to our blindness before the 9/11 attacks... and hence was at minimum dereliction, or even treason.
In sharp contrast, what do you expect this time, even if Justice and other departments simply become "normal" again? Not even engaging in vendetta. (Though that's what Foxites will howl - and counter-memes must be ready!) Simply by getting out of the way of stymied FBI, counter-intelligence, grand jury and state prosecutor investigations, such a new Justice Department will unleash a dike-breaking of massive proportions. Just the Deutsche Bank records alone will send scores to jail. See: “If Trump loses, the recriminations are going to get very ugly.”
3) Now consider if a new president actually created an empowered, Truth and Reconciliation Commission that included all sane interests, with some powers of clemency for testimony, backed by whistle blower rewards offered officially... or by some friendly billionaire… as I suggested in Polemical Judo? Giving the blackmailed a way to retire without jail, if they fess-up? Giving *henchmen* a chance to tattle profitably against some of the electoral cheats we've long (and recently) seen?
Are there Democrats who would have reason to fear light, as well? Sure. And giving such folks a gentle path out of DC would also seem a good idea, though in ways that were proportional and reciprocally fair, not the self-inflicted suicides we saw with Al Franken etc.
4) Overall, one and only one thing will make a difference. Restoration of belief in the existence and utility of facts. Yes that takes priority! Because every other wanted reform - like elimination of racism and fixing wealth disparities and ending treason will all proceed faster after that. Because facts have a liberal bias. See: http://davidbrin.com/nonfiction/factact.html
Larry
Evidently I have not made myself sufficiently clear, although messages can either be garbled in transmission or reception. I think there will be background noise but not of the magnitude that will reverse what appears to be a Biden win. Recounts where it is close are an accepted part of the system. They rarely overturn things but in a year with an unprecedented absentee vote things are a bit messier.
Sometimes even when things are done as best as circumstances allow there is lingering rancor. I know you feel that way re Bush/Gore. It lessens the "consent of the governed" and as such is a problem for us all. The fact of the matter is that there are four or five swing states that are close. There are going to be hard feelings. Either side bulling through over objections will intensify same. We can wait a week or so to reduce this toxin.
I have to say, and marvel at doing so, that the various news agencies have been pretty fair about not calling things early this time around. That and an unprecedented voter turnout are areas I hope we can agree are positives.
Now Matthew, I must say thanks. In the context of my larger conversational arc - the posited Truth and Reconciliation Commission - I would like to hear much more from you on the concept of assumed guilt and the importance of decades old unsubstantiated accusations sprung at the last minute. And that appear to have never been hinted at in previous background checks. You'd not enjoy being judged by such standards. In fact any average person so accused would be toast, lacking the political backing and financial resources to make - if such a thing could even be done - an effective defense.
But you seem to be willing to accept a different standard when the political stakes are high enough.
The Ends justify the Means. Has any more dangerous concept ever insinuated its way into our society?
Pachydermis
Cari always bet on DT's egotism. If he stays out of jail or exile, he'll start a TV channel and rebuild his fortunes by selling tickets to rallies that's feature bands and raving speeches... Rant n' Roll.
In which case, he may very well try to establish a new MAGAt party all his own.
To Pachydermis2
With the massive de-funding of the IRS and the almost complete lack of any investigation of white collar financial shenanigan's for at least the last 20 years that would be my first step
(1) Write legislation saying that the IRS should have its funding INCREASED until an additional dollar of funding only yielded one dollar of additional revenue
If it can't be done by legislation then an executive order that tax investigations START at the top - the people currently investigating the "welfare queens" should shift to the millionaires
(2) Make a full investigation of the last 20 years financial history part of the automatic actions upon winning any national office
Senate Majority Leader
I assume that the new Senate in January will have to select a majority leader
If the Dems don't have a majority could the Dem Senators approach the GOP Senators and say something like
"We need somebody who will work with us - we will support any GOP senator as the leader except Moscow Mitch (and several other complete lost cases)
So 49 Dems + 1 GOP = 50 and VP Harris has the tie breaker
I just read someone suggesting the White House needs to be completely swept for Russian bugs. Holy cow, they're right. They had four freakin' years to plant mics and cameras in there.
Make a full investigation of the last 20 years financial history part of the automatic actions upon winning any national office
Strikes me there's something to be said for the Norwegian approach to tax returns here.
In Norway, anyone can look at anyone else's tax return. So I could look at Dr. Brin's, for example. The key thing that makes it work appears to be that all releases are also public — so Dr. Brin would know that I've seen his tax return. Transparency in action!
Duncan, another good idea.
Dr Brin:
LH.... do try to combine some of your missives so I have less approval clicks to make.
I didn't want to make a separate post just to answer this :) , but yeah, I'll do what I can. The trick is to not immediately respond to everything without seeing what comes next.
* * *
Robert:
In Norway, anyone can look at anyone else's tax return. So I could look at Dr. Brin's, for example. The key thing that makes it work appears to be that all releases are also public — so Dr. Brin would know that I've seen his tax return. Transparency in action!
I believe I posted about this when I read about it several months ago, and yes, I noticed exactly the same thing--how well Dr Brin's ideas on transparency jibed with an equitable resolution to the "tax porn" problem.
Two good ideas above. Every admin should sweep the White House, and many other places, for bugs regularly. You never know what you might find. I'm guessing this actually is done.
And a closer look at White Collar financial shenanigans is a good idea....so long as it is not weaponized and only focused on some. I think the more clever shenanigeers (hmmm, a word I think I've just coined) are much better at working through cutouts, non profits and NGOs. You OK having a close look at the whole picture?
Pachydermis.
Looking forward to the drone light show. Swarm robotics was my ticket into boardrooms back in the day. Party like it's 2008.
"Happy Days Are Here Again,
The skies above are clear again
Let us raise a glass of cheer again.
Happy Days Are Here Again!"
A song of the Greatest Generation, circa 1933
Play it... now... out the window... loud...
(And thank you Philadelphia and the spirit of Ben Franklin.)
The newz has called it. I feel like tying a red pennant to my Biden/Harris yard sign, but not sure driversby would know what it means...
Off to work with a an eased heart
One of the first acts of the Biden administration should be to "tear down the wall" except for one tiny section named "The Trump Memorial Wall". Plus, I hope there is still some political courage remaining to name Warren as Treasury Secretary as well as other worthy senators to cabinet positions - Senate majority be damned.
How about a "Trump, you are fired" meme?
Tearing down wall is my bottom priority. It helps no one and costs money. Far better to shred and boil down the Border Patrol, which was by far the largest and most frenetically Trump-loyal of all law enforcement agencies. I do believe (as do most Democrats) that reasonable fencing and cameras and a "patrol" to keep the border lawful and orderly are essential. But I'd spend money buying up small-dying towns and making them safe/comfy/health places for refugees to process while gardening with their kids.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUZEtVbJT5c&fbclid=IwAR2QDjDO1gtCJe_LVpyvVJZKL_c43ZyPZx9rYSq7rCbSAGRY-EAX4AgHvg0
Here's why Trump will fight desperately over Georgia:
- to help the two GOP senators? Naw.
- to 'win"? naw.
- to keep attention on him as a troublemaker? Sure, but...
No, he'll send "poll watchers" to Georgia because everything is symbolism to him. If Biden gets Georgia, it's 306 Electoral votes, exceeding Trump's ego's last refuge, his 304 vote victory in 2016. Oh, he will fight like hell so Stacey Abrams doesn't whip him.
Also the map will look less red.
Uncommented in the news: Vladimir Putin just rammed through the Duma a total and perpetual immunity of past presidents from prosecution. There are also rumors of his imminent retirement - possibly due to Parkinsons. The mind churns with possibilities, like him knowing what might happen when the choke chains and hobbles come off of our intelligence agencies. As a novelist I can spin scenarios of pre-emptive avoidance of revenge... or else reaction to revenge that has already been delivered.
I'm as happy as anyone, but with reservations. I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Biden has enough EVs in the bag without Pennsylvania, which state I consider the most likely to be dragged out in the courts over late-arriving ballots.
If Arizona and Nevada goes Biden's way, he has exactly 270, which would only take one faithless elector to throw the election to the House. I'll only believe the win when there's more of a margin than that.
Still--provisionally--Woo Hoo!
Congratulations. I hope that the nightmare is over now, though I remain wary until January, 20th.
The world can breathe again.
Russell Osterlund, TYT (The Young Turks) yesterday introduced a "You're Fired" t-shirt. News article has a link to a YouTube vid of Cenk Uygur wearing one during a broadcast:
https://www.dcpresswire.com/2020/11/06/tyt-releases-donald-trump-youre-fired-shirts-moments-after-joe-biden-takes-lead-in-pennsylvania/
Pachy2, the vice president of a social organization I belong to signs her emails "Vice President and Chief Shenanigator".
Also the map will look less red.
You can also do that just by changing the map to represent people rather than area.
http://try-to-impeach-this.jetpack.ai
Yeah, but those rumors of Putin's "imminent retirement" came from the Post, a Murdock-owned Tabloid. I'd take that news with an ocean of salt. I've a friend with contacts in the intel community and they've not told me of any such rumors about Putin. While they don't tell me a lot of what they know (and I've told them not to), I suspect they still would indulge me in something that juicy.
Acacia who is glad she's not going to be fleeing to Canada in the next two months, but is still quietly planning on moving to Ireland within four years because America can't be trusted anymore
@Dr. Brin
Okay, your suggestions would be a great follow-up act - my idea would be symbolic while yours would let the world know we are back to being America again. Giving these assignments to Kamala Harris would underscore the point.
I'm feeling hope. Maybe, maybe this will be enough.
Maybe the cheat will not drop. Maybe, maybe we will not see more cheating to take POTUS from the majority. Perhaps.
With a dash of salt over my shoulder.
Responding to Pachy - if I were trying to be a member of SCOTUS, I would *expect* by past behavior to be looked at through a microscope. It's the norm, and I encourage it.
I'd do better than Kavenaugh though - I've never attempted rape, and I do not have mysterious benefactors paying off millions of debt for me. I've never committed perjury in front of the Senate. You cannot say the same about Justice K.
So, when investigations show *one* of my charges above are true, will you still support him, unthinkingly? I'll check again when it comes up, soon.
I suspect you would still support him - you are *remarkably* resistant to facts when they differ from your online persona.
I can't wait for some sycophant of the Very Stable Genius to do a remake of "Eikon Basilike, The Pourtrature of His Sacred Majestie in His Solitudes and Sufferings".
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-trump-4chan-forum-turns-on-libertarian-jorgensen-as-his-re-election-crumbles
I've been teasing some libertarians with this same thinking, mostly because they used to give me crap about how Green or Nader votes resulted in Bush the Lesser and Trump. The article states (and I suspect this to be the case) that many, perhaps most of the libertarian votes would have gone for Biden because Biden is the fucking sane one. We need preferential voting to get out of this two-party mess.
I suspect a large majority of Republicans will just walk away from Trump now. The outriggers will, as the article says, have a bloodbath. More power to them.
But no, I don't intend to be conciliatory at this time. Anyone voting for Trump knew exactly what they were voting for, and it's going to be a while before I forgive, and forever before I forget.
Zepp Jamieson:
But no, I don't intend to be conciliatory at this time. Anyone voting for Trump knew exactly what they were voting for, and it's going to be a while before I forgive, and forever before I forget.
I'm right there with you.
* * *
My daughter and I have been trading "Hamilton" and "Les Mis" lines all day. Somehow, she beat me to the obvious one:
"You don't have the votes!"
But she liked my comeback:
"Sit down, [Don], you fat mother-*******!"
Uh oh. Are the Republicans in Congress just being dicks, or do they know something is coming?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/07/us/election-results?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#breaking-with-tradition-top-republicans-are-silent-on-bidens-victory
...
Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader and Republican of Kentucky, declined on Saturday to acknowledge President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory. His silence on Saturday came as other Republican leaders also kept mum about the results, and some openly questioned it.
“The election isn’t over until all legal votes are counted and certified,” Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the second-ranking House Republican, said on Twitter.
The reactions suggested that Republicans on Capitol Hill, who have spent four years clinging tightly to Mr. Trump or have avoided publicly countering him for fear of provoking an angry tweet, were sticking to those approaches even after his loss.
...
* * *
I had a feeling that Rocky Mountain Mike might already have a song ready for the occasion, and I was not disappointed. "After-Trump Delight".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SOlt8RAYoU
"Drumph!" and the red States have an abusive relationship:
https://nypost.com/2020/11/05/counties-with-covid-19-surges-overwhelmingly-voted-trump-report/
Please note, empathy is easier in prosperous economic times, more creation, less destruction, please.
Best comment of the day:
"In a way, aren't we all stuck somewhere between a sex shop and a crematorium????"
Some Notes/Thoughts:
1) Polling is a method of prediction still more akin to entrail reading than a reliable science. No landslide, no "Appomatox".
2) Biden may have the presidency one way or another - either by keeping Pennsylvania or two of Arizona, Georgia or Nevada - but the Democrats own only one half of the government (Presidency and House), while the Republicans will keep the Senate (most likely) and the Supreme Court. Government will stay divided.
3) Roughly 70 Million Voters - roughly one-third of the voter population - voted for openly fascist policies. Republicans even gained ground in the House.
4) Voter Turnout will be at roughly 66%. This means, one-third of the population is either not interested in participating in the political process (which itself may have different reasons) or excluded by other means, such as voter suppression.
5) Had Trump won via the electoral college, he would still have lost the popular vote by at least 5+ Million votes.
6) Most allies look forward working with a Biden administration, but over here, most voices are sure that main differences will remain (although they will be discussed in a more polite manner). Also, most will remain very wary.
7) Several states are demographically turning blue, especially Texas and Georgia. We will see if this process continues or reverses. It might be just enough to succeed in 22 or 24.
8) The third-party candidates meaningfully influenced the outcome this time again, with Trump/The Republicans being loser in some key states, via Jo Jorgenson/the Libertarian Party. The Green Party had almost no impact on the election this time.
I like the irony of this happening.
9) Fox News and some Republicans have abandoned Trump ... leaving the sinking ship. They can afford to wait now, for four years, and look for a suitable candidate to build up for 2024.
10) Both Biden and Trump managed to increase voter turnout, so the assumption that it primarily benefits Democrats might be nothing more than a fanciful tale.
11) Trump continues to say that the election was stolen. He has still not accepted defeat, though I think no one seriously assumed he would do.
Let me do some entrail reading, too.
With tons of problems unsolved, and a divided government, the chances for Biden/Harris to make meaningful changes possible look very bleak. They might only get one term, and then a more competent version of Trump might be elected into the White House. No Court packing, no legislature, no nothing without Mitch McConnells consent (which might be filled with enough poison pills that dangers the cohesion of the Democratic platform, which is not strong in the first place) means no political successes, and thus any problem in the US already there will magnify.
In foreign politics, trust and good will in allies as well as others is depleted. To regain the trust of allies, they will have to do things abroad that will hurt them at home, and vice versa. (At least, they won't likely do things that will hurt them abroad AND at home, as under Bush jr. and Trump.)
It might be necessary to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, seeing the Biden/Harris era only as a short respite the US and other nations can use to strengthen the stability of democratic institutions and processes, and prepare for darker days ahead. (Yes, that means for Europe to become less dependent on America.)
They had what the reporter for KRCR kept calling "a visual" for Trump yesterday in Redding. I think she meant "vigil." It was a mournful little gathering of people convinced the commie gun grabbers were there and would make fun of them. Well, one out of three, perhaps.
Doctor: Another song from that era that needs to be played: "On the Sunny Side of the Street."
Larry, the Republican Party today is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Trump's ego. When the question is whether they have a clever plan or are just being dicks, history tells us that "just being dicks" is the most likely correct response.
Zepp,
Heh. Pulling GOP voters to the Libertarian side was a big part of why I left the Democrats in 2012. I recognized that some GOP voters were relatively sane, but fearful of their progressive neighbor's inclination to spend and socially engineer. I wanted to encourage them to join a party that wasn't so enamored with Revelation.
I noticed that the Libertarians were getting enough votes in swing states to make a difference fairly early and chuckled about it. Then I got a good look at the percentage of the vote the libertarians represented and realized it wasn't a big change. In fact, it was kinda more of the same. The difference this time is that it mattered in the outcome.
What I've learned over 8 years is that my original motivation doesn't match reality. It's not really possible to pull people from one party to another no matter how persuasive I am. I don't think anyone can do that. What they CAN do is persuade people to vote for a particular person or vote against someone else. Party affiliation is a deeper thing MUCH more resistant to change. Poke at that and people respond as though they are being asked to be disloyal. They might vote for a particularly charming candidate from another party, but otherwise remain loyal to their tribe.
I've decided to be Okay with that and let it go. They'll abandon their tribe when it makes sense to them. There will be considerable mental anguish when they do. It's like changing religious beliefs. Very traumatic.
It's not so traumatic for me. My loyalty is to our civilization. As such, I'm thinking of changing my party registration again. I don't like how some libertarians demonstrate a profound lack of understanding regarding masks during the pandemic. Some of them go so far as to demonstrate 'injustice' in the sense of a vice. That bothers me.
I'm still chuckling about swing states coming close enough for libertarian votes to matter, though. Yah. Schadenfreude.
Der Oger interesting observations. Though in this one case, I doubt the libertarians siphoned much from Trump. Many of those voters were refugees from Trumpism. What’s fascinating is that the LP did not benefit much even under these circumstances!
Alas, your dour second half seems… well, dour. Just by appointing 10,000 humans instead of 10,000 monsters, much will change.
Somewhat off topic, but something occurred to me I hadn't imagined before.
What if Trump and Guiliani are in a sort of prisoner's dilemma, where they are both blackmailing each other. Guiliani was a prosecutor in NY prosecuting the Mafia and Trump had entanglements with the Mafia. Guiliani may have found something and let Trump off for money. And Trump knows that and Guiliani knows that. If it came out, they could both end up in Jail. It slumbers and is a stalemate and then Trump is president and immune and no it becomes a dangerous game. It would explain why they are both so desperate.
I suspect that the Republican senators are treading carefully because of the Jan 3 runoffs in Georgia. If Trump decides to ask his supporters to boycott the runoffs in order to "punish the Republican establishment for disloyalty" the Democrats will have easy wins costing the Republicans control. That may happen even if Trump just sits on the sidelines rather than enthusiastically endorsing. The morale of Democrats should be high after proving that a Democrat can win the state. And, the morale of the Republicans should be low after Trump's defeat...
Paradoxically, the corona virus may be the reason Republican losses didn't extend down-ballot. I recall studies in which just reading about death (so they were "thinking about mortality") shifted people's positions significantly to the right on surveys. Also, temporary increases in religiosity correlate, historically, with pandemics. That background mood may have saved the Republicans down-ballot while costing Trump the presidency since his mismanagement and lack of empathy made the pandemic worse. Without it, the results might well have been reversed: Trump winning reelection while the Democrats won broadly down-ballot.
Currently, public polls are only getting about a 5% response rate with the pollsters trying to compensate with weighting models. However, for that to work the fraction of a category that responds must actually represent a random sample of that category. What I suspect they missed in this election is that Trump embodies and amplifies the paranoid strain in US politics. And, paranoid conspiracy theorists may be disproportionately reluctant to respond to polls. I suspect that the pollsters were not weighting separately for paranoid/conspiratorial thinking. "Shy Trump voters" probably weren't people who were ashamed of saying they supported Trump. Rather, they were people who were too distrustful of the process to participate (plus some who deliberately lied to "disrupt the system").
I don't think the supreme court will save Trump. Invalidating a winning margin of 10,000+ votes in each of the five flipped states is a very different matter than ending a messy recount in one state where the difference amounted to a few hundred votes. If they rule in a blatantly partisan matter it will destroy the credibility of the institution. And, with the Republicans retaining the senate (or, at most, the Democrats gaining control of an evenly split senate) there isn't going to be any structural reform of the court for at least 2-4 years. Without that immediate threat, it isn't in the justice's personal interest to support Trump. They might even see Trump as the greater threat since they're protected by lifetime appointments under the status quo while Trump could decide to "burn it all down"...
Der Oger:
9) Fox News and some Republicans have abandoned Trump ... leaving the sinking ship. They can afford to wait now, for four years, and look for a suitable candidate to build up for 2024.
FOX News--right wing media in general--actually do better financially when Democrats are in power and they get to rail against the man! Being cheerleaders for Republicans who are actually running things isn't nearly as lucrative for them, especially condisering that whoever is in power is going to somewhat disappoint their base. Even the most rabid Trump supporter can't always--in private--feel that everything he does is perfect. But they can be on board with "Everything Biden does sucks."
10) Both Biden and Trump managed to increase voter turnout, so the assumption that it primarily benefits Democrats might be nothing more than a fanciful tale.
It's been an article of faith among both parties that higher turnout benefits Democrats, which is why Republicans in power make voting more difficult and Democrats make it easier. I think what we saw this time had two causes. One--Trump appealed to people who didn't usually vote because they think both parties are corrupt or that neither party has their interests at heart. Trump got these people into a frenzy to go vote. Two--A sort of "equal and opposite reaction". The more it was obvious that Democrats were energized, the more the other side felt compelled to counteract that energy.
If some good comes from this, it might be that Republicans ease up on the voter suppression if they start to think increased participation doesn't hurt them. We'll see.
11) Trump continues to say that the election was stolen. He has still not accepted defeat, though I think no one seriously assumed he would do.
The good news is the system doesn't rely on his accepting defeat. The bad news is that he's convinced an army of Brownshirts that the election was stolen from him and from them, and while they can't change the official result, they can become a force for domestic terrorism in their own right. I think a lot will depend on whether police and national guardsmen continue to be on their side when they get really violent. If there's a line that law enforcement won't cross, then they'll be put down quickly enough. If the cops are on their side, though, it could get Krystalnacht ugly.
onward
onward
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