tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6144172333053205166..comments2024-03-28T12:42:22.578-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Is our next worry simmering MAGAs and violent boogaloos? Suggest that they stand-down.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger104125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7999629610241034082020-11-08T16:50:39.938-08:002020-11-08T16:50:39.938-08:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26785282763857024852020-11-08T15:01:46.438-08:002020-11-08T15:01:46.438-08:00Der Oger:
9) Fox News and some Republicans have a...Der Oger:<br /><i><br />9) Fox News and some Republicans have abandoned Trump ... leaving the sinking ship. They can afford to wait now, for four years, and look for a suitable candidate to build up for 2024.<br /></i><br /><br />FOX News--right wing media in general--actually do better financially when Democrats are in power and they get to rail against the man! Being cheerleaders for Republicans who are actually running things isn't nearly as lucrative for them, especially condisering that <b>whoever</b> is in power is going to somewhat disappoint their base. Even the most rabid Trump supporter can't always--in private--feel that everything he does is perfect. But they <b>can</b> be on board with "Everything Biden does sucks."<br /><br /><i><br />10) Both Biden and Trump managed to increase voter turnout, so the assumption that it primarily benefits Democrats might be nothing more than a fanciful tale.<br /></i><br /><br />It's been an article of faith among both parties that higher turnout benefits Democrats, which is why Republicans in power make voting more difficult and Democrats make it easier. I think what we saw this time had two causes. One--Trump appealed to people who didn't usually vote because they think both parties are corrupt or that neither party has their interests at heart. Trump got these people into a frenzy to go vote. Two--A sort of "equal and opposite reaction". The more it was obvious that Democrats were energized, the more the other side felt compelled to counteract that energy.<br /><br />If some good comes from this, it might be that Republicans ease up on the voter suppression if they start to think increased participation doesn't hurt them. We'll see.<br /><br /><i><br />11) Trump continues to say that the election was stolen. He has still not accepted defeat, though I think no one seriously assumed he would do.<br /></i><br /><br />The good news is the system doesn't rely on his accepting defeat. The bad news is that he's convinced an army of Brownshirts that the election was stolen from him and from them, and while they can't change the official result, they can become a force for domestic terrorism in their own right. I think a lot will depend on whether police and national guardsmen continue to be on their side when they get really violent. If there's a line that law enforcement won't cross, then they'll be put down quickly enough. If the cops are on their side, though, it could get <i>Krystalnacht</i> ugly.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72860360759449480792020-11-08T13:55:15.957-08:002020-11-08T13:55:15.957-08:00I suspect that the Republican senators are treadin...I suspect that the Republican senators are treading carefully because of the Jan 3 runoffs in Georgia. If Trump decides to ask his supporters to boycott the runoffs in order to "punish the Republican establishment for disloyalty" the Democrats will have easy wins costing the Republicans control. That may happen even if Trump just sits on the sidelines rather than enthusiastically endorsing. The morale of Democrats should be high after proving that a Democrat can win the state. And, the morale of the Republicans should be low after Trump's defeat...<br /><br />Paradoxically, the corona virus may be the reason Republican losses didn't extend down-ballot. I recall studies in which just reading about death (so they were "thinking about mortality") shifted people's positions significantly to the right on surveys. Also, temporary increases in religiosity correlate, historically, with pandemics. That background mood may have saved the Republicans down-ballot while costing Trump the presidency since his mismanagement and lack of empathy made the pandemic worse. Without it, the results might well have been reversed: Trump winning reelection while the Democrats won broadly down-ballot.<br /><br />Currently, public polls are only getting about a 5% response rate with the pollsters trying to compensate with weighting models. However, for that to work the fraction of a category that responds must actually represent a random sample of that category. What I suspect they missed in this election is that Trump embodies and amplifies the paranoid strain in US politics. And, paranoid conspiracy theorists may be disproportionately reluctant to respond to polls. I suspect that the pollsters were not weighting separately for paranoid/conspiratorial thinking. "Shy Trump voters" probably weren't people who were ashamed of saying they supported Trump. Rather, they were people who were too distrustful of the process to participate (plus some who deliberately lied to "disrupt the system").<br /><br />I don't think the supreme court will save Trump. Invalidating a winning margin of 10,000+ votes in each of the five flipped states is a very different matter than ending a messy recount in one state where the difference amounted to a few hundred votes. If they rule in a blatantly partisan matter it will destroy the credibility of the institution. And, with the Republicans retaining the senate (or, at most, the Democrats gaining control of an evenly split senate) there isn't going to be any structural reform of the court for at least 2-4 years. Without that immediate threat, it isn't in the justice's personal interest to support Trump. They might even see Trump as the greater threat since they're protected by lifetime appointments under the status quo while Trump could decide to "burn it all down"...<br />CPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9456080433809700082020-11-08T13:14:37.283-08:002020-11-08T13:14:37.283-08:00Somewhat off topic, but something occurred to me I...Somewhat off topic, but something occurred to me I hadn't imagined before. <br /><br />What if Trump and Guiliani are in a sort of prisoner's dilemma, where they are both blackmailing each other. Guiliani was a prosecutor in NY prosecuting the Mafia and Trump had entanglements with the Mafia. Guiliani may have found something and let Trump off for money. And Trump knows that and Guiliani knows that. If it came out, they could both end up in Jail. It slumbers and is a stalemate and then Trump is president and immune and no it becomes a dangerous game. It would explain why they are both so desperate.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09488435543492412991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40435564219441814712020-11-08T13:10:13.474-08:002020-11-08T13:10:13.474-08:00Der Oger interesting observations. Though in this ...Der Oger interesting observations. Though in this one case, I doubt the libertarians siphoned much from Trump. Many of those voters were refugees from Trumpism. What’s fascinating is that the LP did not benefit much even under these circumstances!<br /><br />Alas, your dour second half seems… well, dour. Just by appointing 10,000 humans instead of 10,000 monsters, much will change.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67290876058004926902020-11-08T10:04:51.616-08:002020-11-08T10:04:51.616-08:00Zepp,
Heh. Pulling GOP voters to the Libertarian ...Zepp,<br /><br />Heh. Pulling GOP voters to the Libertarian side was a big part of why I left the Democrats in 2012. I recognized that some GOP voters were relatively sane, but fearful of their progressive neighbor's inclination to spend and socially engineer. I wanted to encourage them to join a party that wasn't so enamored with Revelation.<br /><br />I noticed that the Libertarians were getting enough votes in swing states to make a difference fairly early and chuckled about it. Then I got a good look at the percentage of the vote the libertarians represented and realized it wasn't a big change. In fact, it was kinda more of the same. The difference this time is that it mattered in the outcome.<br /><br />What I've learned over 8 years is that my original motivation doesn't match reality. It's not really possible to pull people from one party to another no matter how persuasive I am. I don't think anyone can do that. What they CAN do is persuade people to vote for a particular person or vote against someone else. Party affiliation is a deeper thing MUCH more resistant to change. Poke at that and people respond as though they are being asked to be disloyal. They might vote for a particularly charming candidate from another party, but otherwise remain loyal to their tribe.<br /><br />I've decided to be Okay with that and let it go. They'll abandon their tribe when it makes sense to them. There will be considerable mental anguish when they do. It's like changing religious beliefs. Very traumatic.<br /><br />It's not so traumatic for me. My loyalty is to our civilization. As such, I'm thinking of changing my party registration again. I don't like how some libertarians demonstrate a profound lack of understanding regarding masks during the pandemic. Some of them go so far as to demonstrate 'injustice' in the sense of a vice. That bothers me.<br /><br />I'm still chuckling about swing states coming close enough for libertarian votes to matter, though. Yah. Schadenfreude.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53094056286447022712020-11-08T09:25:19.134-08:002020-11-08T09:25:19.134-08:00Larry, the Republican Party today is a wholly-owne...Larry, the Republican Party today is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Trump's ego. When the question is whether they have a clever plan or are just being dicks, history tells us that "just being dicks" is the most likely correct response.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70895931224419219542020-11-08T08:48:28.288-08:002020-11-08T08:48:28.288-08:00Doctor: Another song from that era that needs to b...Doctor: Another song from that era that needs to be played: "On the Sunny Side of the Street."Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36856776698316419812020-11-08T08:46:14.853-08:002020-11-08T08:46:14.853-08:00They had what the reporter for KRCR kept calling &...They had what the reporter for KRCR kept calling "a visual" for Trump yesterday in Redding. I think she meant "vigil." It was a mournful little gathering of people convinced the commie gun grabbers were there and would make fun of them. Well, one out of three, perhaps.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58546828758770291572020-11-08T07:54:43.486-08:002020-11-08T07:54:43.486-08:00Some Notes/Thoughts:
1) Polling is a method of pr...Some Notes/Thoughts:<br /><br />1) Polling is a method of prediction still more akin to entrail reading than a reliable science. No landslide, no "Appomatox".<br />2) Biden may have the presidency one way or another - either by keeping Pennsylvania or two of Arizona, Georgia or Nevada - but the Democrats own only one half of the government (Presidency and House), while the Republicans will keep the Senate (most likely) and the Supreme Court. Government will stay divided.<br />3) Roughly 70 Million Voters - roughly one-third of the voter population - voted for openly fascist policies. Republicans even gained ground in the House.<br />4) Voter Turnout will be at roughly 66%. This means, one-third of the population is either not interested in participating in the political process (which itself may have different reasons) or excluded by other means, such as voter suppression.<br />5) Had Trump won via the electoral college, he would still have lost the popular vote by at least 5+ Million votes. <br />6) Most allies look forward working with a Biden administration, but over here, most voices are sure that main differences will remain (although they will be discussed in a more polite manner). Also, most will remain very wary.<br />7) Several states are demographically turning blue, especially Texas and Georgia. We will see if this process continues or reverses. It might be just enough to succeed in 22 or 24.<br />8) The third-party candidates meaningfully influenced the outcome this time again, with Trump/The Republicans being loser in some key states, via Jo Jorgenson/the Libertarian Party. The Green Party had almost no impact on the election this time.<br />I like the irony of this happening.<br />9) Fox News and some Republicans have abandoned Trump ... leaving the sinking ship. They can afford to wait now, for four years, and look for a suitable candidate to build up for 2024. <br />10) Both Biden and Trump managed to increase voter turnout, so the assumption that it primarily benefits Democrats might be nothing more than a fanciful tale.<br />11) Trump continues to say that the election was stolen. He has still not accepted defeat, though I think no one seriously assumed he would do. <br /><br />Let me do some entrail reading, too.<br /><br />With tons of problems unsolved, and a divided government, the chances for Biden/Harris to make meaningful changes possible look very bleak. They might only get one term, and then a more competent version of Trump might be elected into the White House. No Court packing, no legislature, no nothing without Mitch McConnells consent (which might be filled with enough poison pills that dangers the cohesion of the Democratic platform, which is not strong in the first place) means no political successes, and thus any problem in the US already there will magnify.<br /><br />In foreign politics, trust and good will in allies as well as others is depleted. To regain the trust of allies, they will have to do things abroad that will hurt them at home, and vice versa. (At least, they won't likely do things that will hurt them abroad AND at home, as under Bush jr. and Trump.)<br /><br />It might be necessary to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, seeing the Biden/Harris era only as a short respite the US and other nations can use to strengthen the stability of democratic institutions and processes, and prepare for darker days ahead. (Yes, that means for Europe to become less dependent on America.)Der Ogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00977602334642769985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41036371817615294082020-11-08T02:24:44.116-08:002020-11-08T02:24:44.116-08:00Best comment of the day:
"In a way, aren'...Best comment of the day:<br />"In a way, aren't we all stuck somewhere between a sex shop and a crematorium????"Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7186850110864012372020-11-07T18:41:01.376-08:002020-11-07T18:41:01.376-08:00"Drumph!" and the red States have an abu... "Drumph!" and the red States have an abusive relationship:<br /><br />https://nypost.com/2020/11/05/counties-with-covid-19-surges-overwhelmingly-voted-trump-report/<br /><br />Please note, empathy is easier in prosperous economic times, more creation, less destruction, please.Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52626016258993520972020-11-07T18:25:17.398-08:002020-11-07T18:25:17.398-08:00Uh oh. Are the Republicans in Congress just being...Uh oh. Are the Republicans in Congress just being dicks, or do they know something is coming?<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/07/us/election-results?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#breaking-with-tradition-top-republicans-are-silent-on-bidens-victory<br /><i><br />...<br />Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader and Republican of Kentucky, declined on Saturday to acknowledge President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory. His silence on Saturday came as other Republican leaders also kept mum about the results, and some openly questioned it.<br /><br />“The election isn’t over until all legal votes are counted and certified,” Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the second-ranking House Republican, said on Twitter.<br /><br />The reactions suggested that Republicans on Capitol Hill, who have spent four years clinging tightly to Mr. Trump or have avoided publicly countering him for fear of provoking an angry tweet, were sticking to those approaches even after his loss.<br />...<br /></i><br /><br />* * * <br /><br />I had a feeling that Rocky Mountain Mike might already have a song ready for the occasion, and I was not disappointed. "After-Trump Delight".<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SOlt8RAYoU<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74430652242988713612020-11-07T16:37:52.927-08:002020-11-07T16:37:52.927-08:00Zepp Jamieson:
But no, I don't intend to be c...Zepp Jamieson:<br /><i><br />But no, I don't intend to be conciliatory at this time. Anyone voting for Trump knew exactly what they were voting for, and it's going to be a while before I forgive, and forever before I forget.<br /></i><br /><br />I'm right there with you.<br /><br />* * *<br /><br />My daughter and I have been trading "Hamilton" and "Les Mis" lines all day. Somehow, she beat me to the obvious one:<br /><i><br />"You don't have the votes!"<br /></i><br /><br />But she liked my comeback:<br /><i><br />"Sit down, [Don], you fat mother-*******!"<br /></i><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26616717532101792442020-11-07T15:13:23.933-08:002020-11-07T15:13:23.933-08:00https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-trump-4chan-foru...https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-trump-4chan-forum-turns-on-libertarian-jorgensen-as-his-re-election-crumbles<br />I've been teasing some libertarians with this same thinking, mostly because they used to give me crap about how Green or Nader votes resulted in Bush the Lesser and Trump. The article states (and I suspect this to be the case) that many, perhaps most of the libertarian votes would have gone for Biden because Biden is the fucking sane one. We need preferential voting to get out of this two-party mess.<br /><br />I suspect a large majority of Republicans will just walk away from Trump now. The outriggers will, as the article says, have a bloodbath. More power to them.<br /><br />But no, I don't intend to be conciliatory at this time. Anyone voting for Trump knew exactly what they were voting for, and it's going to be a while before I forgive, and forever before I forget.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59761097617511924882020-11-07T13:21:49.159-08:002020-11-07T13:21:49.159-08:00I can't wait for some sycophant of the Very St...I can't wait for some sycophant of the Very Stable Genius to do a remake of "Eikon Basilike, The Pourtrature of His Sacred Majestie in His Solitudes and Sufferings".Don Gisselbeckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05770961482198971383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67793941582164096282020-11-07T13:16:13.903-08:002020-11-07T13:16:13.903-08:00I'm feeling hope. Maybe, maybe this will be en...I'm feeling hope. Maybe, maybe this will be enough. <br />Maybe the cheat will not drop. Maybe, maybe we will not see more cheating to take POTUS from the majority. Perhaps. <br />With a dash of salt over my shoulder. <br /><br />Responding to Pachy - if I were trying to be a member of SCOTUS, I would *expect* by past behavior to be looked at through a microscope. It's the norm, and I encourage it. <br /><br />I'd do better than Kavenaugh though - I've never attempted rape, and I do not have mysterious benefactors paying off millions of debt for me. I've never committed perjury in front of the Senate. You cannot say the same about Justice K. <br /><br />So, when investigations show *one* of my charges above are true, will you still support him, unthinkingly? I'll check again when it comes up, soon. <br /><br />I suspect you would still support him - you are *remarkably* resistant to facts when they differ from your online persona. <br /><br />matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31125808171749635522020-11-07T11:38:40.165-08:002020-11-07T11:38:40.165-08:00@Dr. Brin
Okay, your suggestions would be a great...@Dr. Brin<br /><br />Okay, your suggestions would be a great follow-up act - my idea would be symbolic while yours would let the world know we are back to being America again. Giving these assignments to Kamala Harris would underscore the point.Russell Osterlundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14856820456499521004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63470160137129971502020-11-07T10:58:11.406-08:002020-11-07T10:58:11.406-08:00Yeah, but those rumors of Putin's "immine...Yeah, but those rumors of Putin's "imminent retirement" came from the Post, a Murdock-owned Tabloid. I'd take that news with an ocean of salt. I've a friend with contacts in the intel community and they've not told me of any such rumors about Putin. While they don't tell me a lot of what they know (and I've told them not to), I suspect they still would indulge me in something that juicy. <br /><br />Acacia who is glad she's not going to be fleeing to Canada in the next two months, but is still quietly planning on moving to Ireland within four years because America can't be trusted anymoreAcacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66337562376412499462020-11-07T10:45:36.513-08:002020-11-07T10:45:36.513-08:00Also the map will look less red.
You can also do ...<i>Also the map will look less red.</i><br /><br />You can also do that just by changing the map to represent people rather than area.<br /><br />http://try-to-impeach-this.jetpack.ai<br /><br />Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52624744935408571522020-11-07T10:25:46.998-08:002020-11-07T10:25:46.998-08:00Russell Osterlund, TYT (The Young Turks) yesterday...Russell Osterlund, TYT (The Young Turks) yesterday introduced a "You're Fired" t-shirt. News article has a link to a YouTube vid of Cenk Uygur wearing one during a broadcast:<br /><br />https://www.dcpresswire.com/2020/11/06/tyt-releases-donald-trump-youre-fired-shirts-moments-after-joe-biden-takes-lead-in-pennsylvania/<br /><br />Pachy2, the vice president of a social organization I belong to signs her emails "Vice President and Chief Shenanigator".<br /><br />todurohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02040040498120852795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66494488711760143982020-11-07T10:24:25.190-08:002020-11-07T10:24:25.190-08:00Congratulations. I hope that the nightmare is over...Congratulations. I hope that the nightmare is over now, though I remain wary until January, 20th.<br /><br />The world can breathe again.Der Ogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00977602334642769985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56453027842507080762020-11-07T10:03:11.351-08:002020-11-07T10:03:11.351-08:00I'm as happy as anyone, but with reservations....I'm as happy as anyone, but with reservations. I won't breathe a sigh of relief until Biden has enough EVs in the bag <b>without</b> Pennsylvania, which state I consider the most likely to be dragged out in the courts over late-arriving ballots.<br /><br />If Arizona and Nevada goes Biden's way, he has exactly 270, which would only take one faithless elector to throw the election to the House. I'll only believe the win when there's more of a margin than that.<br /><br />Still--provisionally--Woo Hoo!Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-42854900665072650942020-11-07T10:01:17.320-08:002020-11-07T10:01:17.320-08:00Uncommented in the news: Vladimir Putin just ramme...Uncommented in the news: Vladimir Putin just rammed through the Duma a total and perpetual immunity of past presidents from prosecution. There are also rumors of his imminent retirement - possibly due to Parkinsons. The mind churns with possibilities, like him knowing what might happen when the choke chains and hobbles come off of our intelligence agencies. As a novelist I can spin scenarios of pre-emptive avoidance of revenge... or else reaction to revenge that has already been delivered.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88857787134617560082020-11-07T09:54:52.076-08:002020-11-07T09:54:52.076-08:00Here's why Trump will fight desperately over G...Here's why Trump will fight desperately over Georgia:<br />- to help the two GOP senators? Naw.<br />- to 'win"? naw.<br />- to keep attention on him as a troublemaker? Sure, but...<br /><br />No, he'll send "poll watchers" to Georgia because everything is symbolism to him. If Biden gets Georgia, it's 306 Electoral votes, exceeding Trump's ego's last refuge, his 304 vote victory in 2016. Oh, he will fight like hell so Stacey Abrams doesn't whip him. <br /><br />Also the map will look less red.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com