Thursday, October 31, 2019

More (high) Science weirdness... and more...

Before going into some science-y quirks, a couple of quick items?

1) In Britain guess what Brexit-opposers have chosen as their catchword? Yep, it's "Brin." See a fun and funny video of "Brin-ers" crossing Abbey Road. Always knew I'd get there! (Not the only "Brin-appropriation!" here's another!) “Come on without, come on within, you’ve not seen nuthin’ like the mighty…”

2) Again, if you want weapons to help you fight for civilization -- (and no less is at stake) -- across the coming 370 days, then fetch (cheap!) an e-copy of Polemical Judo, with 100+ tactics to counter the would-be destroyers of our Great Experiment. Arm yourselves! And ponder some fresh perspectives. (Oh, and arm-twist others!)

== Modern Problems ==

What about those supposed “sonic attacks” on US and Canadian diplomats in Havana and Beijing? Studies show that it’s very likely something traumatic did happen. And we need to resurrect Frederik Poh’ls prophetic novel about scurrilous, state-sponsored sabotage: The Cool War.

Speaking of threats… have you heard of warshipping? They attack a target network by shipping a cellular-enabled wifi cracker to a company's mail-room.

phenomenon called “hikikomori” is defined by the Japanese Health Ministry as people who haven’t left their homes or interacted with others for at least six months. Of 541,000 people between 15 and 39 who fit that description, 34% have spent seven years or more in self-isolation. Another 29% have lived in reclusion for three to five years. As many as one million people, mostly young men in their 20s, were spending their days locked up in their bedrooms, reading manga (comic books), watching TV, or playing video games. They refused to work or go to school and often didn’t communicate with family members, let alone friends.

I wonder if this will wind up being connected somehow to (1) the male excess in some populations and (2) addiction.

Cautious optimism drawn from a piece of news that might – possibly – help us stave off water wars across the next five decades, and buy us time to get our act together. Scientists have discovered an enormous low-salinity aquifer off the U.S. East Coast. The researchers say it could indicate other such aquifers trapped beneath the salty seas in ocean sediments across the planet. Whether the ice age conditions that made this vast trove were repeated elsewhere, is unknown. But it could matter.

== Changing climate - and attitudes ==


Lending support to what I have proclaimed should be a top issue for the Resistance! "In a time of climate change denial and vaccine resistance, scientists worry they are losing public trust. But it's just the opposite, a survey released Friday finds. Public trust of scientists is growing. It's on a par with our trust of the military and far above trust of clergy, politicians and journalists . . . " The survey by the Pew Research Center finds 86% of those surveyed say they have a fair amount or a great deal of faith that scientists act in our best interests. And that's been trending higher."


I am not asking that we emphasize the mad right's war on science - and all fact professions - instead of their blatant tumble into racism, sexism and intolerance. I'm saying we can benefit by proclaiming the obvious, that the Putin Party has it in for minorities and science! Women and civil servants! Gays and journalists and teachers, doctors and the intelligence community and... yes... the US military officer corps. Get enough RASR republicans to face all these bigotries at once could jostle many of them into turning back toward the light.


And yes, meanwhile... roughly 197 billion tons of ice from Greenland melted into the Atlantic Ocean in July. That's about 36 percent more than scientists expect in an average year. Maintaining climate denialism requires war on science. Don't refuse allies. Embrace them.


Amid the politicization of science, we’ve seen sins on all sides. One controversial study – published in the flagship journal Science – asserted that there were systematic differences in the ways that conservatives and liberals respond to fear or threats or disgust. I’ve always deemed these conclusions to be premature. While yes, conservatives tend to exhibit much closer-in boundaries or horizons of in-group inclusion, I’ve found that many on the left are just as intensely judgmental and wrathful and/or disgusted. They just aim these emotions are different horizons.


Here is an article that casts doubt on both the earlier, simplistic conservative-liberal psychological difference study and the process by which a refutation article might be denied publication in the same journal. I don’t deem this to be a broad indictment of science. Just a very tentative cautionary tale.


== Steps toward Uplift ==

Steps toward uplift? “Transgenic rhesus monkeys carrying the human MCPH1 gene copies show human-like neoteny of brain development.” The transgenic monkeys exhibited better short-term memory and shorter reaction time compared with the wild-type controls. (And yes, it’s done in China. And that's just what's happening in public view.) 

A top researcher dives into the fascinating topic of elephant intelligence and communications: “A database of elephant recordings increasingly captures acoustic, visual and tactile signals, matched to behavioural observations. But elephants inhabit deeply different lifeworlds from humans, have different hierarchies of motivation, and make different perceptual discriminations. And, except in the crudest terms, we don’t know much about what elephants might want to say to one another.

The fascinating story of traumatized young male elephants killing rhinos - til a wise older male was brought in to teach them proper behavior - has vast implications for us, as well as pachyderms.

Late in this interesting survey, Prof. Ross suggests that the biggest obstacle to effective sapience on the part of elephants, corvids and toothed whales might be their inability to store information outside themselves. To build upon a lifetime of experience (say in a herd matriarch or some of our cave ancestors) in a critically expanding and accumulating way. We began doing this by extending human lifespans so elders might carry oral traditions even into their sixties. Then came writing and so on.

This leads to an intriguing possibility… that “uplift” of the smartest animal (“pre-sapient”) species might begin not with genetic meddling, but by simply offering sites for external memory storage. Say obelisks - perched along an elephant migratory path or in some shallow, dolphin-friendly bay - that record and playback correlated inputs from any who come to purposely engage. “If our deep-learning algorithms can crack the elephant communication code, and enable us to engage in conversation with them, perhaps we could create this means of storage, such that elephants are motivated to attend to it.”

A final note: Elephant-uplift was portrayed in fascinating ways in Lawrence Schoen’s novel Barsk - and its sequel, The Moons of Barsk. I portray modified/armored ‘elepents’ and mammuts working in space in my novella “The Logs” found in INSISTENCE OF VISION.

And there's this.... seal learns to sing "Star Wars" theme song. And another does twinkle little star. Okay aliens, NOW are we worthy?

Final notes:

Not only is eating fewer animal products good for the planet, but it is also good for your health. A  recent study found that eating more plant based foods slashes the risk of heart failure by 40%, while another one found that a vegetarian diet cuts the risk of heart disease death by the same percentage. Let’s be clear, I am not a vegetarian. I still indulge. But I view terrestrial meat as a condiment and red meat as a rare, guilty pleasure. Perhaps that leaves me in karmic jeopardy, but it does help lower my planetary footprint and carrots won’t ever be uplifted. Nuts? Well, maybe. Avocados are alien spies.

fascinating illustrated cosmo-historical timeline since the big bang is far from comprehensive, but beautifully rendered and laced with interesting facts I never knew.
  

59 comments:

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin under the previous post:

We've had outages because of the fires!


I'm not sure what's worse. Here at the New North Pole (tm), we're having 4 to 7 inches of snow. In freakin' October! The previous record snowfall for this date was 2/10ths of an inch.

Larry Hart said...

A.F. Rey under the previous post:

I hear you, Larry. In second grade we had to memorize a poem, and my mom had me do A. A. Milne's "Vespers." 52 years later I can still rattle off 90%+ of it.


I can still do a good amount of the "Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears" soliloquy that I had to memorize in 1976.

And I won't bore people with it all here, but I learned Andrew Marvell's poem "To His Coy Mistress" the following year, and I can still do 100% of that one from memory.

Don Gisselbeck said...

Speaking of snow, the hikikomori might benefit from a good skiing addiction. That, work and music keep me from going down that hole.

A.F. Rey said...

The hikikomori sound like old-fashioned hermits to me, which makes me suspect that it merely may be a personality type that isn't discussed much because it is rare.

Some people just don't want to be around other people. And in Tokyo, where else can you hide but in your own apartment?

TheMadLibrarian said...

Astronomers have discovered a 'void' with absolutely nothing in it:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12546-biggest-void-in-space-is-1-billion-light-years-across/
So much for 'Nature abhors a void'!

Larry Hart said...

A.F. Rey:

Some people just don't want to be around other people.


I used to be like that. Still am somewhat, but the exceptions have proliferated as I get older. But I do understand the sentiment behind the line from Repo Man:

"Ordinary f***ing people. I hate them!"

kiwi said...

I would love for you to create a podcast or twitch channel where you just randomly talk about interesting stuff / Anything goes / Open / Transparent / Good for humanity ...

Please

Alfred Differ said...

Watching this one burn from one of my second floor windows. No immediate danger to me, but the orchards and hillsides are burning.

https://www.kclu.org/post/new-brush-fire-ventura-county-thursday-night-maria-fire-burning-south-mountain#stream/0

Jon S. said...

"And I won't bore people with it all here, but I learned Andrew Marvell's poem "To His Coy Mistress" the following year, and I can still do 100% of that one from memory."

Never got around to reading that one, but I understand that Michael Bishop's "For the Lady of a Physicist" started as a parody of that (before becoming something rather different), and I can recite that from memory.

(My father almost got suspended from third grade back in the day, because everyone in his class was required to memorize and recite a poem. He picked Robert Service's "The Cremation of Sam McGee".)

Alfred Differ said...

Larry,

Now, I'm curious how that might fit with your capitalized-lady virtues.

Classically, courage is the virtue displayed when we face danger. Typically in battle, but not just against human forces. Demons, Gods, you name it. It you could do battle with it and likely die trying, you could display courage in the fight. Courage is also a social virtue. If no one knows you did it, it isn't courage. It might be something else on the list of virtues, but it is not courage. By the classical definition.

In the modern sense, we've broadened the virtue to cover a range of 'battles' that our ancestors would have dismissed. An inventor working long hours to find the right filament to make the first light bulb and then commercialize it takes risks both personal, financial, and probably marital. Is that courage to us? Likely. Not the same as facing a saber tooth cat with your two meter spear? Sure. We are pretty loose about it, though. The reason I asked scidata was to find out how loose he was with his definition. Turns out not as much as i thought. Well within the modern range. Loose but not extreme. I can tell by who he lists.

Fictional characters are easier to evaluate. Simpler. Less material on them that might lead to conflicting interpretations. We can ask authors what they intended too. The university folks on the wall were courageous? Sure. What about Holn, though? One doesn't generally attract a lot of followers willing to wage war without being courageous. We attract those who would imitate us.

The classic virtues number four. Courage, Justice, Temperance, Prudence. We judge the character of others by resolving them to these virtues. Courage and Justice are very social. They don't exist except in social settings. Temperance is less social in that you only need one other person in the room to display it. Prudence is entirely personal. These four make up the set described by Aristotle.

The Catholics added three more, but are inclined to call them graces. Faith, Hope, Love. When you are inclined to argue that someone can display courage without anyone else around to know it, you are probably describing "Faith/Loyalty" instead. Anyway, Faith and Hope are transcendent while Love is either social or transcendent. Bit of both. Transcendent doesn't have to be anything particularly spiritual, but given the source it's not hard to see why many think it must be. It's supposed to be 'social' taken a step further to include those capitalized ladies. Personify an Ideal and you've got the 'social audience' for transcendent virtues. So… if you want to argue Captain America is courageous in a story where there is no chance anyone will ever know what he did, I'd argue he is remaining faithful to an ideal. Personify her if it helps identify her. (She has a big statue made for her out in the harbor, right?) Modern heroes often display faith/loyalty and I suspect some on scidata's list are there for both courage AND faith.

The one I think applies to many scientists that onlookers sense but can't quite name is Hope. Faith is backward looking. One remains loyal to something known. Hope is forward looking. Much of curiosity is courage and hope. Show me a working scientist with no sense of hope. They should be quite rare, probably heading into depression, and won't be working for long.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

The university folks on the wall were courageous? Sure. What about Holn, though? One doesn't generally attract a lot of followers willing to wage war without being courageous.


Yeah, Bill Maher got cancelled off of network tv for saying essentially the same thing about the 9/11 hijackers--that someone who willingly flies an airplane into a building is not a coward, no matter what other bad things they are.

On the other hand, Donald Trump and his followers are threatening civil war, and he's less courageous than anyone I know of. So how does that jibe with your assertion above? Does that mean we have less to fear than the bluster makes it sound?

Jon S. said...

Donald Trump is threatening to have other people fight a civil war on his behalf. None of his statements have indicated the slightest willingness to be close enough to the lines of battle to even hear gunfire, much less experience it. Instead, he wants to play a game of "let's you and him fight."

So yes, he's a coward, along with any other labels you want to apply. Most of the wannabe-confederate leaders are the same. At least that's something you can't say about the street-level Trumpistas - they may be foolsih poltroons ready to follow their Dear Leader's instructions as they throw themselves into the thresher for his vainglory, but at least they're brave idiots.

(Sadly for them, should it actually come to that, they don't hold the monopoly on courage that they imagine they do. As I've said before, I'll do everything in my power to prevent another civil war from coming to pass - but if the Tree of Liberty requires refreshment, well, hell, I've had a good run. There are worse ways to go, you know?)

Larry Hart said...

Jon S:

Donald Trump is threatening to have other people fight a civil war on his behalf.


Agreed, but other people are making the same threat. So I wondered how that aligns with the assertion "One doesn't generally attract a lot of followers willing to wage war without being courageous. We attract those who would imitate us."

Perhaps those followers are imitating Trump's carefully-crafted fictional image rather than his true self?

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

When you are inclined to argue that someone can display courage without anyone else around to know it, you are probably describing "Faith/Loyalty"


Many such people surely believe that God is watching. Does that change the equation?

Even among skeptics/atheists, there can be a sense that "History has its eyes on you"--that your action will eventually be known and judged even if it isn't being watched at the time. Dave Sim used to write a lot about "Reading into the record". Even when he thought that no contemporary reader understood what he was saying, he wanted his thoughts out there for possible future readers to note.

scidata said...

Confederates will need to conquer much, much more than just DC. Pax Americana has built quite a formidable world over the last 70 years. Eg, here in the Toronto-Waterloo corridor, we take scientific literacy very seriously, at all levels. We ain't going back to the caves anytime soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eTogq7rknQ&feature=youtu.be

There is a single light of science, and to brighten it anywhere is to brighten it everywhere.
- Isaac Asimov

Larry Hart said...

A letter to the editor, NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/opinion/letters/trump-impeachment.html

This country was founded because it wanted to be rid of a king. Now we have a king, one who combines the worst qualities of Don Rickles and Don Corleone and who, if he isn’t in the pay of Russia, might as well be.

The gutless Republicans led by Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham have allowed the president everything short of nullifying the Constitution by executive order — though probably they’d let that pass as well.

Ukraine won’t be enough for impeachment. The Democrats have to throw the book at Donald Trump to make him seem absolutely, utterly, finally indefensible. Of course, he’s that already. But only a full on-camera public litany of his depredations can do the job.

Lorraine said...

Props for the high weirdness ref.

David Brin said...

Thanks Kiwi. Here's a storehouse of hours and hours of podcast & audio interviews:
http://www.davidbrin.com/podcast.html

Some of the specifics:

Ted-style talks about our future!

(1) The “Neo” Project aims to create a vividly beautiful film, combining science and art with optimism. They feature my blather about peering into the future. Vivid imagery and remarkable sound editing. http://anewbreedofhuman.com/announcement-trailer/ <==^alt N

(2) The XPrize Foundation FB-posted a well-produced video of me explaining the concept of the self-preventing prophecy, and how we gird ourselves through science fiction to face tomorrow's perils. https://www.facebook.com/XPRIZE/videos/808449792667555/

(3) Video of my talk on the future of A.I. to a packed house at IBM's World of Watson congress in Las Vegas, October 2016. A punchy tour of big perspectives on Intelligence, as well as both artificial and human augmentation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlwsJpwg3e0 <==^⌘N

(4) At the Smithsonian - "Will we diversify into many types of humanity?" http://www.smithsonianmag.com/videos/category/future-is-here/david-brin/?no-ist

(5) TEDxUCSD talk on “The addictive plague of getting mad as hell." http://tinyurl.com/wrathaddicts (And the scientific background: http://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/addiction.html )

(6) Sober reflections on the TV show "Closer to Truth" - about topics ranging from the search for extraterrestrials (SETI) to philosophy of science, from religion to ESP to human destiny in the cosmos. http://www.closertotruth.com/contributor/david-brin/profile

(7) “Multiverses, quantum entanglement and Free Will!” With two other astrophysicists at UCSD’s Arthur Clarke Center. http://imagination.ucsd.edu/_wp/news/the-physics-of-free-will/

But here's a great series on sci fi! https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/novum

David Brin said...

Oh, the neurons I waste with memorized commercial and TV show jingles.

Stay safe, Alfred.

I deem other virtues to be as important.

Curiosity
Integrity

Combine them and you get the sacred trait of science... the ability to say "I wonder if I might be wrong?"

And Balance.... the ability - while open to criticism, change, and improvement... to nevertheless fight those who are clearly far more wrong.

Larry Hart said...

A dilemma...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/01/opinion/2020-election-democrats.html

...

Democrats cannot bank on the theory “that non-Trump voters have ‘no place else to go,’ ” he said, because in 2016 they did just that” — went elsewhere:

About 8 million voters — greater than the population of 38 of our 50 states — voted for 3rd party candidates in 2016, almost 6 percent of the total vote. The same thing is likely to happen again in 2020 if the choice is Trump vs a real leftie, i.e. Sanders or Warren.


...


But in 2016, it wasn't the centrists who voted third party instead of for Hillary. It was the progressives for whom Hillary was too centrist. The advice doesn't seem to align with reality.

Larry Hart said...

From the same article immediately above:

I asked Alex Castellanos, a Republican consultant, why immigration, identity politics and political correctness remain problematic for Democrats. His view is that many Democratic positions on these issues reinforce

America’s loss of identity. We no longer seem to have a great, uniting idea of what America is. On these issues, Democrats support further disintegration of one united national culture, open to and supported by all Americans. Instead, Democrats support what I would call “cultural segregation,” the idea that nothing unites us, and what makes us different and special, our unique group identities, is all that exists.


I don't get this either. Democrats are for treating anyone, be they black, Hispanic, gay, Jewish, Muslim, whatever as equally American citizens. Republicans are the ones now supporting the notion that only one identity group is the true American, and that everyone else should shut up or self-deport. Democrats believe that the very notion that we're Americans unites us, despite our differences. Republicans believe the nation is one of "blood and soil", belonging to white Christians.

How on earth does this become the Democrats claiming that nothing unites us?

scidata said...

Isaac Arthur has a new Fermi Paradox: Rare Technology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcrrW1GgHso


This one (4th) finally delves deeply into psychology. This largely dismisses most of the simplistic Fermi Paradox ideas. Fun.

jim said...

You know there probably are a fair number of people who will not vote for Sanders or Warren. And there are definitely a fair number of people who will not vote for the Democrats if it is anybody but Sanders or Warren.

It is looking (to me) like the 2020 election will determine what kind of party the Democrats will become.

If the Democratic party chooses Biden it is the party of the status quo, globalization, hegemony, endless wars, free trade, mass immigration, mandatory for profit health insurance and token virtue signaling for the environment. If the Democratic party choses Sanders or Warren and they get the congressional support and pass things like M4A and end the global war of terror the Democrats will become the party of working men and women again.

David Brin said...

Yes, jim: "It is looking (to me)" it does clearly look that way to you. You have refused every effort by me and others to get you to justify this outright calumny-lie, that is an utter Goebbels-level slander straight out of a Kremlin basement. But yes, it seems so to you.

You refuse to engage the FIVE rebuttals to splitters that I offered here and in POLEMICAL JUDO, because they are lethal to your mastrurbatory incantation.

In fact, I support Liz, despite her "I got a plan!" complete misunderstanding of the presidency. She's smart and utterly incorruptible.

WHat I am not is a zero-sum splitter Kremlin-lackey fool, like you.

jim said...

OH man your Trump Derangement Syndrome is really hurting your thinking ability.

It is soo funny that you think that repurposing the old right wing slur about their opponents being Russian commies still works. OHHH NOOO I am a Russian lackey fool because I want Medicare for all and an end to the global war of terror..

David Smelser said...


The democratic party still allows super delegates to play a role in the primary process, allows candidates to run for president who don't consider themselves democrats except for presidential campaigns, and allows individuals who are registered as no party preference to participate in primary elections. There also is an increase in never-Trumpers leaving the GOP which turns the remaining GOP into the party of Trump.

With all that going on, I'm not sure you can really make much conclusion on what a democratic party presidential nominee says about the long term direction of the party.



Larry Hart said...

In Foundation and Earth, the independent traders held off on proceeding with a revolt against Terminus in order to stave off the threat of The Mule. Had they succeeded against The Mule, then they could have continued their civil war. But that moment was not the time.

What else is there to say?

jim said...

David Smelser

I think that is because of the disruptive Trump presidency that what the Democrats and Republican stand for is in flux. Trump is trying to remake the Republican party into one that is against Free Trade, wants to reduce our entangling military relationships and bring the troops home, and is for low levels of immigration all very big policy changes for the Republican Party.

Do the people who want Free Trade, the US to remain the global hegemon, Continue the global war of Terror and mass immigration become part of the Democratic Party or retake the Republican party after Trump is gone?

David Brin said...

Waaa! jim does absolutely what the KGB wants and what Moscow is strenuously applying vast sums and basement-troll efforts to achieve. In this civil war phase they provoked, they know their only hope is a divided Union.

There is not a razor blade's difference between the incantations issued by sincere (I presume) splitters like "jim" and those pouring from those KGB trolls. In fact, all those trolls must do is mine thick veins of our home-grown splitter crap. Yet, that doesn't cause jim a moment's pause. Instead, I am paranoid to have noticed it!

" I am a Russian lackey fool because I want Medicare for all and an end to the global war of terror.."

CHEAP distraction-gambit trick! You know my list of 31 basic consensus action items ALL DEMOCRATS WANT encompasses those things. Maybe you'd get only 50% during the first 90 days (e.g. medicare for all children and an end to the War Powers Act) but you'd then be well-positioned to commence campaigning for more, from a solid footing.

No one in the DP is bitching at AOC and her ilk for primarying old line dems in deep blue districts and building a big socialist caucus. SHOW US the attempts to shut that down! What YOU would do is knock the props out from under Amy McGrath - our biiggest hope against Mitch McConnell - because her kind of dem fails your ideological purity tests.

YOU KNOW THIS. But it is inconvenient to your mastubatory narrative, so use cheap debate-distraction, instead. Ignore what happened in 1992 and 2008, the only times we won effective power, by uniting! Ignore what happened in 1994 and 2010, when you lazy, cynical, preening, pompous splitters betrayed us and stayed home. Or 2000 and 2016.

---

DSmelser, super delegates are TOP elected officials who were chosen INDIVIDUALLY by large constituencies, while primary voters get zero say in the actual delegates in primaries. Argumants can go both ways, but you rave without any understanding or knowledge. In any event, super delegate power was hugely cut after 2016.

But the sign of a dogmatist is veering away from inconvenient refutations. Like screeching and howling at Nancy Pelosi... till events proved me right... that she's exactly the right person, in the right job. Oh how sure you are, despite almost total lack of facts!

"and allows individuals who are registered as no party preference to participate in primary elections."

Damn straight. And results in California have been superb. Oh, right. Results. Outcomes, can't look at those.

"I think that is because of the disruptive Trump presidency that what the Democrats and Republican stand for is in flux. Trump is trying to remake the Republican party into one that is against Free Trade, wants to reduce our entangling military relationships and bring the troops home, and is for low levels of immigration all very big policy changes for the Republican Party."

Again, jim reveals utter incomprehension of what's going on.

Jon S. said...

Moving troops from Syria to Iraq over the objections of the Iraqi government, while deploying different troops to Syria with the explicit goal of securing Syrian oil (in defiance of international law - conquering and pillaging is frowned on these days, you know), is not "reducing entangling military relationships and bringing the troops home."

To borrow a phrase, it is a different thing, in fact the opposite thing.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

DSmelser, super delegates are TOP elected officials who were chosen INDIVIDUALLY by large constituencies, while primary voters get zero say in the actual delegates in primaries. Argumants can go both ways, but you rave without any understanding or knowledge. In any event, super delegate power was hugely cut after 2016.


I think you were so revved up at jim that you didn't quite catch the point Mr Smelser was making. He wasn't coming down on the Democrats for using superdelegates. He was just saying that there are so many independent forces at work in the nomination process--superdelegates being one of them--that the choice of candidate doesn't necessarily indicate a long-term direction for the party itself.

That's how I read him, anyway.

Larry Hart said...

Jon S:

To borrow a phrase, it is a different thing, in fact the opposite thing


My work is done. :)

A.F. Rey said...

The bottom line is still: do you want to negotiate with the Democrats for liberal changes, or with Trump and his minions?

There is a difference!

David Brin said...

AFR... Amended bottom line? "do you want to negotiate with the Democrats for liberal changes, after getting half of what you wanted almost instantly, saving the nation and civilization? Or piss in the faces of your allies, in a purtianism that has never, ever worked?"

duncan cairncross said...

Jim and DSmelser are doing EXACTLY what Dr Brin says they are doing and by doing so they are buying the GOP's BIGGEST LIE

The HUGE LIE that
"Both parties are the SAME"

That the "Corporate Wing" of the Dems is the same as the GOP

Back in 2000 when Bush 2 was elected there was a smidgin of truth in that lie - but anytime after Bush 2 - that LIE has been horribly massively a LIE - with NO truth in it at all

The "Worst Case" - the most "Corporatist" Democratic Government will be an ocean better than the "Best Case" GOP Government

You can always try for a "Best Case" with Warren - but even a "Worst Case" Biden or Tulsi Government will be oceans better than any GOP Government

David Brin said...

DD the grain of truth is that many dems know where the tax dollars come from, that has let us expand so many good endeavors. "Capitalism is a loaded-useless term. But flat-fair-creative-competitive-innovative enterprise has been a partner with taxpayer supported R&D, infrastructure, education, health, lustice and safety net. Neither could have worked without the other, something Marx never envisioned, though Adam Smith did and the Greatest (FDR) Generation found a sweet spot.

Which is why the oligarchy's agenda has been to tear down the GGs' whole edifice and re-install feudalism. And with allies like jim, they may succeed.

In POLEMICAL JUDO I show that flat-fair-creative-competitive-innovative enterprise has always done better under democrats, even as they invest in children and infrastructure and justice and science. It's a positive sum arrangement that most on the entire-right and far-left simply cannot comprehend, in their desperation to have simplistic enemies.

Larry Hart said...

The lie is that it is "The Democrats" are the ones who dislike Trump, and that their reasons for doing so are partisan. And so, if The Democrats won't give us what we want--a Bernie or a Warren nomination--we will punish them by foisting Trump on them. As if sticking the entire country with Trump is mere collateral damage.

David Brin said...

If I truly had my druthers, I'd have Mayor Pete as prez and Liz as the frenetic-busy "plan" effusive veep. Buttigieg is the only borderline genius in the bunch and he has by far the best approach. And I'm not at all confident the nation - especially blacks/hispanics - are ready for him.

My second - more likely - choice is Warren-Inslee, so she'd have an able administrator in the building who could also explain practical politics.

My crackpot theory is that Biden knows he's a lightning rod, intending to draw fire. Always, in life, consider the possibility that what you just saw happen might have been intentional.

No tears over Beto. Or Tulsi (soon I hope). Castro's likely next though I like him. Bennett deserved better, methinks, but it's taking shape.

Phaedrusnailfile said...

Larry Hart, I am just curious as to where you came to the conclusion that regarding progressives not voting for Hillary and instead voted third party. The analysis of Bernie supporters from 538 showed that 12% of voted for Trump, 4.5% voted for Stein, and 3.2% voted for Johnson.

Larry Hart said...

@Phaedrunsnailfile,

So what are you questioning? Sounds like your own figures back up my sense of things. Are you not counting the 12% because they didn't vote "third party"? The point was that they voted in such a way as to let Trump win because they thought Hillary was worse, or "just as bad".

David Brin said...

I have mixed feelings about what things'd be like if Clinton won. Oh, Trump taking office was a national and world disaster. But Hillary in the White House would have been utter hell, with civil war likely gone-hot and a 2018 trouncing for the dems. There'd have been zero legislating done. Zero. Though that includes the 2019 Supply Side Voodoo fift to the rich, so at least our finances would be much better.

Unless real proof of total putin-war against us let her smack old Vlad so hard... Maybe I'm underestimating her. And in that other universe the civil service is functioning well and all that. Still, it's a hellish place. Just hellish in different ways. Maybe we were just scheduled for Heinlein's "The Crazy Years."

At least in this universe the late night talk show monologues are hilarious. Guffaws mixed with sobs of pain.

Phaedrusnailfile said...

I think it would be best for me to post the analysis since it goes into a more than I can summarize here. But I am not sure of the etiquette for posting links here. The article goes on to break down the fact that not all of the people who defected were necessarily progressive in fact a large number of the defectors identified as conservative. I just want to stress this. I am not trying to pick a fight.

Larry Hart said...

Conservatives voted third party (or Trump) because the DNC wasn't fair to Bernie? Because Hillary was too corporate? I mean, why would they do that?

I wasn't originally arguing with you. I was expressing confusion that the writer of an op-ed cautioning Democrats to nominate a centrist because otherwise centrists will vote third party and let Trump win. Wasn't the problem in 2016 that Democrats nominated a centrist?

David Brin said...

No doubt sugar plum fantasies of 3rd & 4th parties are fizzing in all directions Putin/Murdoch will pour money/support into them all.

A shambling Naderstein monster to the left, raving 'corporatist" hallucinatons while crippling our coalition.

Tulsi/Steyer/ and others concocting a "centrist" movement for national salvation.

Romney-Ryan and their cabal finally erupting forth with whatever scheme they've been cooking, or else forestalled by President Pence, after Trump resigns but goes rally-nuts on the road.

A monster truck party of the far right?

All of it aimed at ripping us apart. Andfor all of the above, we need to be ready with the meme weapons I supply in POLEMICAL JUDO.

David Brin said...

The notion spreading now is that the bank & tax records will spill soon, one way or another. (How I'd love it to include Panama Paper revelations on Romney, Ryan etc.) If it looks way-harsh, Trump could resign and we have a plethora of paths I talk about where I dissect "chess moves" in Chapter 16 of POLEMICAL JUDO.

- Tree branches would then depend on whether Pence:
1- is implicated
2- decides to run for the 2020 GOP nomination
3- demurs in order to be a caretaker (while looking for his Book of Revelation opportunity.)

-- Also whether Trump thereupon:
1- Goes all-out blaming dems & libs - inciting McVeighs and more, while the GOP establishment shrugs and says "we are no longer responsible for that aberration on real conservatism"...
2- Goes all-out in jeremiads that include the Deep State and GOP "establishment"...
3- Has made a deal with hidden powers (unlikely to work as he boils over) or is martyred.

Each of those branches has sub-branches and hybrids, some of them verging on science fictional. So? What kind of reality do you think we're already living in?

David Brin said...

Oh I left out the pardons! Both pre and post resignation. And God bless New York State.

Phaedrusnailfile said...

Larry Hart, I found the study I was referencing and if you have the time or inclination I was hoping to get your opinion. My reading of the data indicates that the narrative of progressives defecting because of their disagreement with centrist policies is dubious at best. The article is from 538 and it was published on Feb.21 2019. The title is How Bernies 2020 Map Might Change Without the #NeverHillaryVote." I totally understand if you find such a request is presumptuous and will bear you no ill will if you decline. It is more that my confidence in my own abilities to parse such data is less than perfect and would like other eyes to show me it's flaws.

Phaedrusnailfile said...

A second article I read from Vox titled "The Bernie voters who defected to Trump explained by a political scientist" also seems to confirm my analysis, but once again I am hoping if it is my own confirmation bias at work then it will be pointed out to me. It is just that something our host said to me kind of started me thinking about the nature of siblings and the way they wrestle fight and squabble which is absolutely true. But there is another thing which I have found to be true about siblings tussles, after the fight is over and the emotion of the moment goes away they remember they are still family and support each other.

Alfred Differ said...

Larry,

Two Scoops is a coward. He talks of civil war and makes it sound like his people will "back him", but I'll go on record and bet they won't. Civil war requires organized action against a government. There are groups out there who could potentially do it, but I'd bet everything I've got they are almost all already infiltrated by members of our protector clade. The remaining residue of violence will be unorganized terror action. The 'action' they expect to take will fizzle in a miserably embarrassing way and they will mostly slink away. Except for the nuts.

Two Scoops isn't attracting the courageous. He's losing them. Look at some of the people testifying lately.

Two Scoops IS attracting people who have a sense of justice that aligns with his. Justice is about social rules. What is expected of you or others in particular settings. Among the Greeks, Justice allowed for slavery. Among us, not so much. Look at Two Scoops rant about HIS expectations for what should be for him and done by us. His sense of justice is misaligned with respect to ours, but not so with respect to the people he does manage to draw to him. His is the kind of justice defined by The Godfather. Ours isn't.

The followers of Two Scoops are definitely faithful to the crafted image they think represents him. They are hopeful too. How the Christians among them fail to see this as a violation of Commandment #1 leaves me at a loss for words. But I can see both faith and hope in their Glorious Leader. For reference we are dealing with chapters 10 and 11 from Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom".

Many such people surely believe that God is watching.

God IS one of those personifications. Just take my pantheistic set to the limit where one personifies only one of them who manifests all the ideal traits. Ta da! The Christian God.

"History has its eyes on you"

Another personification. We do this a lot. That fact is what provides excellent support for early Catholics to extend Aristotle's list for cultures connected to the Greek tradition.

Even when he [Sim] thought that no contemporary reader understood what he was saying, he wanted his thoughts out there for possible future readers to note.

Ah. That sounds more like Faith and a bit of Hope. He wanted to be loyal to himself (as he idealized, thus personified his own character) and hoped his record would matter in the future. The idealization was likely full of inaccuracies (who can really understand themselves?), but recursion is allowed. Kinda expected actually. Adam Smith's "impartial spectator" from "Theory of Moral Sentiments" is a lot like that.

Alfred Differ said...

David,

I think the virtue ethics philosopher would argue that Curiosity is a mix of some of the others. Hope? Love?
Integrity is a mix too of Justice and Faith.

The argument goes that the 'space' of character is spanned by the virtues. The exact list isn't important since one can rotate and invert in that space to resolve character into a different basis. Think vector spaces, but with the dimensions curled around on themselves. Too much Prudence (Scrooge) is a vice. Too little Prudence is also a vice, yet not quite the same.

The basis for Enlightenment probably numbers seven, but it might be higher. Very unlikely to be less. Authors would know this, though, as any character you write is one you have to resolve in some kind of mental space you imagine.[Donaldson's Thomas Covenent is a coward until he isn't. The story arc addresses this transition.]

As for Balance, that sounds like Justice and a bit of Faith and Courage. Lots of modern emergent social rules and a willingness to fight for the ideal. 8)


I was taught years ago to seek explicit support from a team that expects to coordinate their action in discovering their core values. What moves us? Pick three words. What people usually offer (after some thought) are virtues, but in a basis that makes sense to them.

reason said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
reason said...

I've come to the conclusion that climate change really is what is driving the craziness (because it is so widespread). Several generations with a view of the world that cannot be sustained and resisting that realisation with everything they have got. And as is always the case, there are amoral hucksters willing to milk that reluctance to accept reality.

I'm of the view that you cannot introduce the massive re-engineering of our basic economic systems without first addressing economic security. If the shape of the future world is unknown, how can we expect people to plan the acquisition of their skill-set for that world?

I truly think a universal basic income is the ONLY solution. And I think that is difficult (but not impossible) to introduce with large scale immigration. The only answer to reaction is to model a serious way forward. Liz might be wrong on some of the details, but at least she is trying. Lot's seem to be trying to pretend it will work to continue as before.

Larry Hart said...

Phaedrunsnailfile:

But there is another thing which I have found to be true about siblings tussles, after the fight is over and the emotion of the moment goes away they remember they are still family and support each other.


Wouldn't the same dynamic apply if the Dems nominate a progressive? The op-ed I was taking issue with was asserting that a Sanders or Warren nomination would cause large swaths of centrist Democratic voters to stay home or vote for Jill Stein. The advice it was giving to Democrats was to nominate a centrist like Biden to keep that from happening. My point was that that's what we did last time, and it most specifically didn't keep that from happening.

I don't see the relevance of a statistical breakdown of what Bernie Bros did. The proof is in the (2016) pudding. Trump beat a centrist Democrat. Why do the same thing* and expect a different result?

* I do realize that Hillary in particular brought baggage to the table, and that there were never-Hillary people who might have voted for a different Democrat. Then again, I think Elizabeth Warren would have the same problem.

Larry Hart said...

reason:

I've come to the conclusion that climate change really is what is driving the craziness (because it is so widespread). Several generations with a view of the world that cannot be sustained and resisting that realisation with everything they have got.


Well, but is that just about climate change? They have the same reaction to inexorable social changes, such as tolerance of homosexuality or women's autonomy. Same dynamic, but nothing to do with the weather.

Phaedrusnailfile said...

Larry Hart, thanks for taking the time to respond it is much appreciated. I do agree with your conclusion above regarding a centrist candidate, and will give some credence to the notion that sexism may well play a part if the eventual nominee is a woman. But if Warren is the nominee the defectors from the democratic party will be more from the centrist voter than it would be from those who would identify as progressives. I have already come across various hatchet job articles speculating as to why stocks would tank in a Warren presidency. I lost all the credibility in the progressive circles i comment in when i indicated support for Harris who was just too centrist for their tastes, but whom i found to be incredibly sharp minded despite whatever minor policy disagreements i may have had with her. One encouraging thing i have seen in and amongst those progressive circles i mentioned is a growing number of people throwing around a "vote blue no matter who" hashtag.

Larry Hart said...

Phaedrunsnailfile:

One encouraging thing i have seen in and amongst those progressive circles i mentioned is a growing number of people throwing around a "vote blue no matter who" hashtag.


I'm glad that's where you were. I had thought you were arguing for only supporting a particular Democrat, and letting Trump win otherwise.

That's exactly my point as well. I have no problem with primary voters wanting to push their particular candidate, be it Biden or Warren or Sanders or whomever. But once a candidate is chosen, for better or worse, get behind him/her in order not to throw the election to Benedict Donald again. Whichever Democrat is is, no matter how bad you think his/her policies are, he/she will not be "just as bad or worse" as Trump. My freakin' cat would not be just as bad or worse than Trump.

BTW, do you care to explain your pseudonym? It's a bitch to spell when quoting you. :)

Phaedrusnailfile said...

Larry Hart, my pseudonym is a take off on Phaedrus' knife from Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. It seemed to be a little egotistical to claim that my own intellect was that sharp so i went with nailfile. I actually got the idea from occams comic that used to post here. If you just want to address it as Phae or whatever i wont take offense. I used to post here under my actual name but when i started posting on other less monitored forums i changed it for more anonymity.

David Brin said...

Huh, a Pirsig fan! Better that than Plato.

onward

onward

kiwi said...

Thanks David, I've already listened to many of your talks;
But would love a "Fireside Chat" every new day :) just saying;
To be honest your regular blogging is really impressive and abundant;

Going through these now

Thanks Kiwi. Here's a storehouse of hours and hours of podcast & audio interviews:
http://www.davidbrin.com/podcast.html

Some of the specifics:

Ted-style talks about our future!

(1) The “Neo” Project aims to create a vividly beautiful film, combining science and art with optimism. They feature my blather about peering into the future. Vivid imagery and remarkable sound editing. http://anewbreedofhuman.com/announcement-trailer/ <==^alt N

(2) The XPrize Foundation FB-posted a well-produced video of me explaining the concept of the self-preventing prophecy, and how we gird ourselves through science fiction to face tomorrow's perils. https://www.facebook.com/XPRIZE/videos/808449792667555/

(3) Video of my talk on the future of A.I. to a packed house at IBM's World of Watson congress in Las Vegas, October 2016. A punchy tour of big perspectives on Intelligence, as well as both artificial and human augmentation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlwsJpwg3e0 <==^⌘N

(4) At the Smithsonian - "Will we diversify into many types of humanity?" http://www.smithsonianmag.com/videos/category/future-is-here/david-brin/?no-ist

(5) TEDxUCSD talk on “The addictive plague of getting mad as hell." http://tinyurl.com/wrathaddicts (And the scientific background: http://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/addiction.html )

(6) Sober reflections on the TV show "Closer to Truth" - about topics ranging from the search for extraterrestrials (SETI) to philosophy of science, from religion to ESP to human destiny in the cosmos. http://www.closertotruth.com/contributor/david-brin/profile

(7) “Multiverses, quantum entanglement and Free Will!” With two other astrophysicists at UCSD’s Arthur Clarke Center. http://imagination.ucsd.edu/_wp/news/the-physics-of-free-will/

But here's a great series on sci fi! https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/novum