Yes… this really matters

Enjoying convention season? Okay, I was actually scheduled to speak at one of the side events in Philadelphia, but had to drop out. No worries. Well, none that I don’t share with millions of fellow citizens.

Meanwhile, out in the real world…stuff continues… for example…

The world is on pace to set another high temperature benchmark, with 2016 becoming the third year in a row of record heat. NASA scientists announced on Tuesday that global temperatures so far this year were much higher than in the first half of 2015.

Seriously. Many of the decisions we face are not about “left” or “right” in any traditional political way. It is largely about facts and science versus believers in 'truthy" incantations. 

It is about sanity. And survival. And at some point you are going to have to ponder whether your favorite, comfy incantation-magical-spells (of either left or right) are really worth risking the planet and your children.

== The most-important choice. ==

Way back ages ago, Michael Dukakis tried to prevent the Epoch of Bushes by touting that “a candidate’s first and most-telling decision is his choice as a running mate.” He said this because it was quickly apparent to the voting public how vastly superior an individual Lloyd Bentsen was, over the callow Dan Quayle. 

Of course, Dukakis was flailing about, while drowning. But history does show a distinct difference between the selections made by GOP vs Democratic nominees.

Tim Kaine fits the mold for Democratic running mates… a bit boring, perhaps a smidgeon to the right of fully-liberal, and highly qualified. 

In contrast, with just two exceptions, Republican presidential nominees almost always pick someone spectacularly unqualified to be commander in chief. The exceptions? On paper at least, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush chose men who at least had very strong resumes. Yes… those two chosen-ones would also turn into the most spectacularly evil horrors to exercise U.S. executive power in a hundred years. Still, they were qualified, on paper. Nearly all the other GOP VP picks have been -- well -- ridiculous.

We’ll let the choice of Tim Kaine sit and gel a bit, though it truly is hard to see how it does anything but speak well of Hillary Clinton. (Watch his convention speech; it was solid.) As for this season’s Republican choice? Well, on paper he is Kaine’s equal, with experience both in Congress and a governor’s mansion. Alas, he's also a bona fide fanatic and deeply, fiercely committed to the war on science. 

This fellow lists five reasons why Mike Pence was a great match for Donald Trump, including the Indiana Governor’s extremely close relationship with the Koch brothers. Left off the list? The main reason why I suggested DT might pick an establishment right winger… someone who could minister to the Tea Party and fundamentalist wings, when Trump shocks everyone by veering toward the center (in selected ways) during the debates. 

Recapping: in my last political posting I posed a plausibility. Back when I believed DT to be a more disciplined schemer, not the short-fuse/impulsive blabber we now see, I predicted Trump would – as soon as he got the nomination – plunge center-ward with stunning alacrity.  Indeed, a silver lining would have been his abandonment of climate denialism and Supply Side Drivel “Economics.”  In that case, while the nation – and DT’s November chances – might improve, he’d risk the wrath of the right, unless he had a running mate capable of soothing that mob. 

Now? I see that center-veer as less likely. Though indeed, why else would they have tested the waters in Cleveland, with Ivanka’s feminism speech and Donald’s riff on defending LGBTs? Well, well.  With Pence on hand to keep the far-right chilled, Trump could do some center-veers, saving them for the debates where they'll have maximum impact. 

The dems should prepare for some jiu jitsu surprises!

But that wasn’t the only factor, in choosing Pence. A while back, I opined that Donald Trump would ponder an extra consideration, in picking his running mate – making sure it would be someone unlikely to betray him!  
      Betrayal either before the election, if all seems lost… or in the case of victory (GF!) , after, when an establishment republican Veep would serve as “impeachment bait.” I do think DT may have taken these factors into account…

…but perhaps not in the way I imagined!  It just occurred to me... dang... that I may have misjudged the situation.

Suppose the election looks to be a rout, Donald will be desperate for a face-saving out. Betrayal by the party elders, including his running mate, might fit the bill perfectly. Oh, anyone sane would know they bolted because he was a loser, bigtime...

But the important thing, when it comes to face, is maintaining appearances with a big enough minority. Call it the “OJ Effect.” If he can nurse the notion that he was stabbed in the back, then for a few tens of millions that will be the excuse narrative he can milk for forty years. (And a few of you know I used the specific term “stab in the back” with historical pertinence.)

Whoa.  So... Trump may at some point try to draw the betrayal?

Oooh. I have some wires loose. They spark. Ack!

== Sane Conservatives are Standing Up ==

This logical and impassioned letter from a lifelong Republican activist, tells his reasons for resigning his post on a GOP committee. Chris Ladd, whose GOPLifer site has been a locus for many conservatives discussing in dismay the hijacking of their movement, offers a cogent and clear summary of his reasons, cluding these incredible paragraphs:

“At the national level, the delusions necessary to sustain our Cold War coalition were becoming dangerous long before Donald Trump arrived. From tax policy to climate change, we have found ourselves less at odds with philosophical rivals than with the fundamentals of math, science and objective reality.

“The Iraq War, the financial meltdown, the utter failure of supply-side theory, climate denial, and our strange pursuit of theocratic legislation have all been troubling. Yet it seemed that America’s party of commerce, trade, and pragmatism might still have time to sober up. Remaining engaged in the party implied a contribution to that renaissance, an investment in hope. Donald Trump has put an end to that hope.

“From his fairy-tale wall to his schoolyard bullying and his flirtation with violent racists, Donald Trump offers America a singular narrative – a tale of cowards. Fearful people, convinced of our inadequacy, trembling before a world alight with imaginary threats, crave a demagogue. Neither party has ever elevated to this level a more toxic figure, one that calls forth the darkest elements of our national character.”

Should it ever have come to this?  That it would take the looming-scary presence of an American Mussolini to make decent conservative realize it is time to stand up? Yes, Chris Ladd’s missive will help, if each of you out there uses it to help minister to some desperately anguished Republican neighbor.

But do not expect them to let go of their rationalizations easily! Especially the last refuge: “Yes, I know my side has gone stark, jibbering insane, without a single positive accomplishment to point to and swirling in a toilet bowl of lies…. But… but democrats are worse!”

Accept your mission and the difficulty.  Your aim is not to convert them from conservatism or love of market economics!  Nore should you sneer at American exceptionalism!

Your task is to remind them that American conservatism once bore at least a glancing correlation with pragmatic appreciation of facts, of science, and of the need to move ahead in a rapidly changing world. It can again (someday) be part of a conversation, a negotiation, that includes enterprise and individualism and deregulation in the mix of ideas we’ll use, to take on 21st Century challenges!

But first they must let go. It is like prying the hands of a drowning man off the soaked and sinking life preserver he's clinging to and getting him to notice the starship floating nearby with a welcome ramp waiting... if only he would just... turn... his... head.