Transparency 2013: Good and bad news about banking, guns, freedom and all that

== Bank Secrecy 'ending' at last? ==

"Bank secrecy is essentially eroding before our eyes," says a recent NPR article. "I think the combination of the fear factor that has kicked in for not only Americans with money offshore, countries that don't want to be on the wrong side of this issue and the legislative weight of FATCA means that within three to five years it will be exceptionally difficult for any American to hide money in any financial institution."

In one sense, this would appear to be vindication of my forecast, in EARTH, that banking secrecy would become a major issue by the second decade of the 21st Century and that it would go extinct soon thereafter, propelled via anger by the rising worldwide middle classes plus the basic needs of democracy and true capitalism. Do I feel predictive vindication?  Sure.

But at another level all of this is far less substantial than I depicted. The banking havens are retreating in good order, making deals and protecting what has become their core business -- sheltering lucre stolen from developing nations by their kleptocratic leader-castes. Those klepto-depositors aren't American or European citizens and hence need not be reported. Moreover, the amounts involved -- especially if you include so-called "sovereign wealth funds" -- vastly outweigh the deposits of a few U.S. and Euro mere-billionaires. Indeed, Western governments have been complicit, so eager to reclaim tax revenues from their own citizens that they have given assurances not to go after more general transparency.

The real scenario from EARTH, has yet to be played out. When citizens in Congo and the Phillipines, in Myanmar and Mexico and Malaysia and so on become radicalized and start demanding true international transparency of ownership...

... that is when we'll see such a crisis as I portrayed in the "Helvetian War." This ain't over by a mile.

== Tentative Good News ==

In September, with most members out on the campaign trail, the House of Representatives approved final passage of the long-awaited Whistleblower Protection Enhancement Act (S. 743), a set of 10 reforms intended to clarify the difference between policy disputes and whistleblowing. Sponsored by Sen. Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii, it would expand the types of employee disclosures of violations of laws, rules or regulations that are protected and beef up employee rights. It also would broaden coverage to employees of the major intelligence agencies and the Transportation Security Administration, prohibiting the revocation of a security clearance in retaliation for a protected whistleblower disclosure. And it would expand the rights of the Office of Special Counsel to file friend-of-the-court briefs.

The bipartisan bill would strengthen authority for reviews by the Merit Systems Protection Board and provide whistleblowing employees with more access to their agency’s inspector general. It would establish whistleblower protection ombudsmen to educate agency personnel about whistleblower rights. The bill now returns to the Senate, where it is up for consideration in a November lame-duck session. In the previous Congress, a version of the bill died in a December session.

* Someone out there please report to us all -- what's the status on the legislation? *

This could be almost as important as last year's victory for transparency and civilization, when Illinois courts struck down a law banning the taping of police. No civil liberties matter was more important to our future. On this - no compromise, ever.

== Transparency in The Central Kingdom ==

As we speak, openness advocates are struggling for basic press freedom at China's Southern Weekly. This is not something I mention out of hostility but in hope that the rulers of that rapidly developing nation will come to see the benefits of light - the only possible corrective medicine for corruption - and find the courage to return to their earlier plan.

What earlier plan? Why, to let freedom at the local level clean up corruption where it does the most damage, in exchange for a social contract to leave top national power alone (in oligarchic hands) for a generation. It was a highly plausible plan and would have derived the top benefits of freedom -- accountability and prevention of abuse, crime and errors -- while still managing overall development from above -- the neo-Confucian solution. (Note: I disagree with all forms of oligarchy, but that version could have worked.)

Alas, it was a compromise they found inconvenient in countless ways (freedom often is) and so it fell aside. Overcome by the impulse, imbedded in human nature, to try to control everything.  I hope they will prove their vaunted high intelligence and go back to it, because, in reality, it is their only hope.

== Then there's Big Brother on the Bus ==

According to Wired: “Transit authorities in cities across the country are quietly installing microphone-enabled surveillance systems on public buses that would give them the ability to record and store private conversations, according to documents obtained by a news outlet. The systems are being installed in San Francisco, Baltimore, and other cities with funding from the Department of Homeland Security in some cases, according to the Daily, which obtained copies of contracts, procurement requests, specs and other documents. The use of the equipment raises serious questions about eavesdropping without a warrant, particularly since recordings of passengers could be obtained and used by law enforcement agencies.”

Again, how will you prevent this? By banning them?  So that (as Heinlein said) the bugs simply are made smaller? Better have these things in the open… and insist that WE can zoom into the control room and watch the watchers.

== SMBC Rocks transparency and philosophy! ==

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal captures much of the essence, how look-back "sousveillance" is our only recourse.

Then an oldie...but excellent explanation of the Prisoner's Dilemma.

How many of you know someone who has done this? Used this cop-out? I know several.

Impressive theology.

== Update re HFT or High Frequency Trading ==

I've spoken of calamities far worse than the multi-billion dollar "oops!" mistakes already made by HFT systems... leading all the way to "terminator" problems with emergent AI... by far the most likely way the Singularity could go very badly wrong.

Now Greg Trocchia writes: "One of the about high frequency trading concerns I voiced, as a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) professional, is that even a rigorous software development process could not preclude emergent pathological behavior on the part of the algorithm that might occur in unpredictable sets of circumstances.  It now seems that things are even worse than I had realized.  In certain cases, at least, even the most elementary software engineering precautions were absent: Chicago Fed Study Blasts lid off of High Frequency Trading.  I am aghast that software of such critical importance should be treated with such cavalier disregard of the hard-learned lessons of SQA."

== Transparency and Guns ==

Finally... On The Daily Show, Jon Stewart's riff on gun control touched most of the bases. Especially (and incredibly) he paid attention to the deep-underlying  motivation of gun enthusiasts.  One that needs to be addressed, if we are to calm them down enough so that the moderates join us in conversation.  That may demand some mental adjustments on our part.  Watch his episode then see my nuanced and careful logic about this: The Jefferson Rifle: Guns and the Insurrection Myth.

Here's Stewart's bit: http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-january-8-2013/scapegoat-hunter---gun-control

Alas, the Gun Lobby devotes far too much faith in the protection of the Second Amendment, a slender reed that will bend at some point, when, amid some future crisis, a Court will turn to the "well-regulated militia" part of the 2nd and interpret it in ways the gun fellows will not like.  I say this not out of hostility... indeed, I support core gun rights! Rather, I point it out as a futurist who knows his game.  You guys need another amendment. And my essay offers you one that liberals would help you to pass! It would be a shoo-in, if you'd stop panicking and negotiate. (And that holds for you lefties, too.)

How does transparency relate to gun control?  Simple.  As I point out in The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force us to Choose between Privacy and Freedom - almost all of the advantages and almost none of the disadvantages of personal firearms are available to us if we all go around armed (as we will!) with cameras.  All of the ability to hold others accountable... plus little of the ability to wreak tragic havoc the instant we fall prey to Homo-erectus rage.  Rage that - with cameras - one might later apologize for.  With a gun, it can bring regret for the rest of your life.

I am not for banning all personal weapons!  Read my proposal: The Jefferson Rifle, which is logical and preserves a certain level with safety. But try being openminded, and know that the new era will depend less on gunpowder and more on light.

And now pause... I'll have more transparency-related news, next time.

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==See more Transparency-related articles: Privacy and Accountability in an age of increasing surveillance

Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world

This somewhat autobiographical missive was sparked by recent research that confirms something long suspected -- our civilization dodged a bullet a while back. A bullet made of lead. We dodged it thanks to science, open argument, and the power of dramatically-conveyed evidence...

... plus a fascinating coincidence in which I played a minor-but-interesting role.

== A root cause of violence? ==

Lead has long been rumored as a major culprit of individual and societal downfall - even in the collapse of the Roman Empire. Starting in the 1960s we found that remediation of houses that had lead-based paint correlated with improved IQ tests for children in poor neighborhoods.

A connection with violent crime now seems to be statistically proved.  The elimination of lead-based octane enhancers from gasoline in the United States just may have been the most dramatically cost effective step taken to improve the lives of Americans, and then people around the world.

A couple of snippets from a fascinating article, America's Real Criminal Element, Lead: "...if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America."  and "If childhood lead exposure really did produce criminal behavior in adults, you'd expect that in states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime would decline slowly too. Conversely, in states where it declined quickly, crime would decline quickly." And that's exactly what the data showed.

Read this fascinating look into how science can be used to rescue us from devastating errors, then contemplate whether those now waging relentless war on science are dangerously life-threatening to your kids.

== Strange angles to a weighty matter ==

Okay so here is my first of three interesting addenda you won't find in the article:  Leaded gas is still sold in some countries.  These include Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, Algeria, Yemen and Myanmar,  Holy mackaral, just look at that list and tell me there aren't alarm bells.

Second addendum: this is almost certainly not the only case where some environmental factor may have debilitated or hampered millions of humans into being or behaving less than they could be.  Beyond malnutrition, poor sanitation and general poverty, I mean.  Or even the lobotomizing effects of TV, video games and Twitter. Take the parasitical paramecium Toxoplasma gondii which is endemic in many populations around the globe, entering human brains and - according to strong studies - systematically altering the behavior of tens or hundreds of millions on this planet.  Suppose we find even more such mind-altering infections?  Would that be good news, allowing us to use simple medical techniques and thus eliminate harmful behavior biases that cynics always assumed to be inherent in human nature?  Should this perhaps be made a really, really top priority for research?

I'll get to my third addendum - the personal one, describing my own role - in a moment.  First though...

== How we got the lead out ==

By 1970, some far-seeing types had begun pushing for regulation or legislation to curb this horrific poison  pouring from the tail pipes of millions of automobiles. But they got nowhere, foiled by The Ethyl Corporation (TEC), which successfully pioneered obfuscate-and-delay tactics identical to those later applied by the tobacco industry and then by the Climate Denialist Cult.  Using some of the same public relations firms and "think tanks."

That year, opinion polls showed a majority of Americans opposed to changes that might (according to scare-mongering by TEC)  cause everyone's car engines to erode or explode, if we were all forced to use abominably inferior unleaded gas.  That, in turn, would destroy the economy, all because a bunch of pointy-headed scientists, doctors and public health officials were spreading chicken-little panic about a "purely hypothetical and overblown danger." That was the situation in August 1970.

And yet, by 1972, the situation was transformed! In less than two years' time, with rapidly changing public attitudes, the EPA launched an initiative to phase out leaded gasoline. What led to the plummet in support for lead?  Could a simple demonstration have been responsible?

Let's get to that final addendum.  This one is a personal anecdote. For you see, I was an eyewitness and participant in an event of some historic significance, though it has only been in the last few years that I came to realize just how important it was.

Many of us thought we were participating in something like a great big science fair.  Little more.  But we helped to change the world.

== The Clean Air Car Race of 1970 ==

Do smoking cars cause CACR?

In July and August, 1970, while an undergraduate at the California Institute of Technology, I served as a member of the coordinating committee for the Clean Air Car Race, which pitted 44 student-built vehicles against each other in many categories (electric, propane, natural gas, hybrid....) for a rally-race from MIT across the continent to Caltech. There were some truly amazing innovations.  No, not the electric cars, which were way, way not ready for prime time! But several of the very first hybrid gas-electric vehicles participated, including one from the University of Toronto that we all voted "grooviest car" because it had regenerative braking and several other features now standard on your Prius.  It required a full-time co-driver, in those days, way back when putting a computer in a car was the stuff of science fiction.  But it worked and got real attention.

There was also a truck propelled by a Lear Jet turbine engine that scored well on exhaust quality, but got a zero in the noise pollution part of the competition, leaving a trail of seared underpasses and shattered toll booths across the nation. (It also parked outside my room at Caltech for a week, after the rally, while the drivers gave ear-splitting demos to the press, ouch!)

And yes, here I am, among the cars and drivers and officials of the 1970 CACR, posing for a full-page center spread in LIFE Magazine below the dome at MIT.  I'm the fellow with all that black hair and no tie, standing in the front row at the far left, looking like I actually know what I'm doing there.

Surprised by the prominent national coverage?  That's nothing!  We were mentioned every day during the race by Walter Cronkite on the CBS Evening News. Much of America tracked our progress. It was one year after the Apollo 11 landing, so folks were expecting good things from science. And we delivered! Though perhaps not precisely in the way that we imagined.

== Okay, then what was world-changing? ==

So what does all of this have to do with getting the lead out of gas?  Simple. There were three cars participating in CACR whose sole "clean air" attribute was that they ran on unleaded gas.  Deliberately kept in stock condition, these performed perfectly and made it to Pasadena without a glitch... which is more than could be said for the entry subsidized by the The Ethyl Corporation.

Remember all that press coverage?  These results got lots of play. Moreover, while we students were enthralled by things like hybrid-electrics (and CACR 1970 definitely helped push those ideas into research labs at Toyota and Honda and Wayne State etc, leading eventually to your Prius), it turns out that the most historically significant thing we accomplished was effected by the least romantic or innovative vehicles in the race!  Those three boring old internal combustion cars that made it across the country on unleaded gas... without any explosions. Not even any excess engine wear.  They still went vroom in Pasadena, and then were driven all the way back east again...

... and the public noticed. Poll numbers shifted. Scare tactics about "panic-mongers destroying the economy" withered. Within 18 months the EPA had enough support to start acting to reduce lead poisoning, which soon resulted in far lower parts-per-million in the blood of children. And 20 years later, when a new generation of boys entered their "high crime age" something amazing happened.  They did a whole lot less crime.

Am I claiming credit for the sharp decline of violence in the United States of America, and later around the world?  Nonsense. I wasn't the chairman or prime mover of the Clean Air Car Race and anyway, there were thousands of scientists , engineers, doctors and activists at the forefront of the struggle against lead poisoning, folks who made the real difference.

Still, to have been  a participant and witness -- and to realize, decades later, that a very public blow was struck, a clear demonstration that might have accelerated progress by a year or two or more, affecting many lives? Well, that's priceless.

It also teaches a lesson.  Good things happen because of human effort.  But sometimes in twisty ways that aren't obvious at the time.  We were jazzed and excited (rightfully) by the hybrids. But all we accomplished was to interest some companies and labs who then needed thirty years to actually deliver them.

Meanwhile, we ignored or barely tolerated unromantic vehicles that cruised placidly amid the tech-dazzler jalopies. But that placid cruising was what most significantly and rapidly changed our world.

Ah well.  Story finished.  Except to suggest that we should all learn the basic lesson.  That progress will always be blocked by fools who emphasize short-sighted greed and play upon the prejudices of the gullible. By now their suite of tricks is well-known and perfected. But so should be our quiver of responses. Sometimes, the ongoing War on Science can best be stymied with symbols and imagery that are simple, clear... and utterly true.

Only now, on a related topic, a bit of lagniappe...

== A plague of psychopaths? ==

Just because overall statistical rates of violence have plummeted, that is poor comfort when tragedies such as Aurora or Newtown erupt, sending shock and despair through communities and terrifying the innocent, everywhere. As fresh calls arise for measures to reduce gun-related devastation, let me again suggest that sensible approaches to gun control will only happen if advocates study the needs and fears of moderate gun owners and then tailor proposals with those concerns in mind.

But let's agree that weapons aren't the core problem. (Nor will filling our schools with armed guards provide a solution.) Indeed, much has been said recently about the fact that mass-shooting calamities are rooted in desperate problems of mental disease and our inability to grapple with needed changes. We all need to start by doing what we can, locally, to see to it that those isolated "loners" out there get shown less harshness and more kindness -- more reason to feel connected -- during formative years. A final end to bullying won't make this go away. But if we haven't reached out, we can never say we weren't in part to blame.

Still... that only illustrates one end of a spectrum in which - it appears - civilization is being harmed by socipoaths at all levels, including the political and economic elite.

I've spoken elsewhere of the worst addictive problem in the world today - a plague of self-doped self-righteous indignation that is so rooted in brain chemistry that I gave a talk about it at the National Institute for Drugs and Addiction. Strong evidence suggests that much of our current "culture war" --  thwarting the American genius for can-do negotiation and pragmatic solutions -- is amplified by this modern curse that prompts us to rage instead of negotiate.

Yes, the Indignation Addiction Plague is bad.  But sociopathy is another aspect: one that probably does just as much harm. Have a look at an interesting (even though overly partisan) perspective on psychological factors plaguing the high end of the socio-economic spectrum: Psychopaths holding America hostage?

"Dr. Dale Archer, a psychiatrist and frequent guest on "FoxNews.com Live" of all places writes, "Physically, studies have shown that the brain chemistry is different in powerful politicians, leading to sensation seeking and risky behavior. They have lower levels of the brain chemical monoamine oxidase-A, which means they have higher highs when they engage in risky behavior and that they get bored much more easily than the norm." 

Another excerpt: "Psychopaths often appear normal, even charming. Underneath, they lack conscience and empathy, making them manipulative, volatile and often (but by no means always) criminal. The psychologist Kevin Dutton in his book, The Wisdom of Psychopaths, notes society, and especially Wall Street, admires and rewards many of the qualities of psychopaths - fearlessness, emotional sterility, supreme confidence, ruthlessness, lack of remorse, refusal to take responsibility, narcissism and delusions of grandeur. Who could argue that those characteristics virtually defined the Wall Street crowd responsible for blowing up the world's economy in 2008? In fact, a recent study showed psychopaths were four times more common among business leaders than among the general population." (Babiak P, Neumann CS, Hare RD. Corporate psychopathy: Talking the walk. Behav Sci Law. 2010 Mar-Apr;28(2):174-93.)

== A path to sanity ==

So, what can we conclude? Despite the fact that the lower and middle classes have languished economically, without growth in prosperity for 20 years, there appears to be less danger than ever of dissolving into chaotic, spasmodic violence from below, of the kind that lead poisoning once fostered.  That bullet is being dodged. If the lower castes get violent, it will be with cause, as in 1789 France, not out of inchoate, poison-induced rage.

We are in danger, however, from other forms of mental illness. That plague of indignation, tearing through our middle class politics, causing neighbors to despise each other over abstract issues and to disdain experts like scientists.  Plus a tsunami of psychopathy where it is most dangerous, in the top layers where any self-serving machination or risky behavior can be rationalized away, the manner that such things always were, back in feudal times.  By proclaiming (without cause or evidence or justification) that "My kind of folks are inherently superior."

The stakes are high.  But remember this.  Our scientific enlightenment is the great exception to the rank/repeated stupidity of feudal oligarchies that ran 99% of human cultures.  We are capable of detecting and noticing and even dodging some of the bullets that struck down other societies. We've proved this can happen. So let's ignore the cynics of both left and right, and let's believe we can do it again. And again. Dodging bullets and gradually making larger the fraction of children who grow up healthy, un-poisoned, with sane and knowledge-filled and vigorously curious-empathic brains...

...until our grandkids -- vastly saner and smarter than we neanderthals can now imagine -- are ready to take over.

David Brin

http://www.davidbrin.com

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Science Fiction Day! Innovation and... Star Wars?

Celebrate National Science Fiction Day (January 2, also Isaac Asimov's birthday) by re-committing yourself to live in the future.  Start with this cool little spiel by Ed Finn on Slate.  Then help make it a real holiday -- by celebrating the future.

And in that spirit...

=== Onward to innovation! ==

Positive Trends! Spread the word Cynics or both right and left aren't just unhelpful, they are crazy.

Should DARPA be supporting the creation of "hacker-spaces" to replace old fashioned metal and wood shops in high schools?  I've been involved in the Maker Movement for some time, keynoting a couple of events and creating a maker-themed graphic novel TINKERERS.  And the burgeoning of creativity in high schools is well illustrated in Vernor Vinge's terrific novel of our near future - RAINBOW'S END. (And you'll glimpse it also in my latest novel, EXISTENCE.)

One can easily see why DARPA is investing in the hacker-maker development. The more young Americans who are skilled at turning ambitious innovative concepts into prototypes, the stronger the innovative culture and gusher of new inventions and capabilities will be. This is a matter of national security in too many ways to count. Here's just one.

Note this: every decade since 1900 -- except one -- has seen some fantastic U.S. originated technologies burst forth, creating so much new wealth and ability that American consumers could afford the prodigious trade deficits that have uplifted half of the world's population into the middle class. Jets, rockets, computers, pharmaceuticals, satellites, telecom, lasers, the Internet... only the first decade of the 21st century saw this fecund creative wave interrupted  - by grotesque interference at the top and a treasonous "war on science." (Sustainable energy might have been U.S. led, instead of by Germany and China.)  Regaining this fertility of creative energy should be a top national priority.

It it a movement best fostered by the U.S. Defense Department?  Of course not.  The maker culture is mainly pushed by open-source geekdom with an anarchist-individualist bass rhythm that I'd never quash if I could!  But when this wholesome thing also just happens to coincide with clear national interest?  Sorry guys.  Choke back the reflex. Accept that your government wants you to succeed.  Take the money. Use it to make wonders.  Help make a 
new world.

A collection of my articles about creating the future. 

=== some future-leaning miscellany ===

Bluetooth-enabled stickers help find lost keys and cats with your smartphone.

3-D Printable guns? The maker movement  had to spread into this territory, as well.  A world like A.E. Van Vogt's "The Weapons Shops of Isher."  I am skeptical of John W. Campbell's nostrum "an armed society is a polite society" but we may have no choice.

I loved the old Ace of Aces Combat System which two people could play simulated aerial combat just by flipping pages and calling out numbers to each other, then flipping to the cleverly auto-calculated next page to see who swooped behind whom.  The best car-ride game ever!  And you will be pleased to know that they are all going to be reprinted, one at a time, via Kickstarter.

Big tax incentives for corporations; Small returns. How states and local governments fall into a trap of giving away everything in order to get or keep a factory, which often vanishes anyway. 

How much does your state spend on tax incentives for corporations? An interactive feature from the NY Times: Texas spends 51¢ per dollar of state budget on tax incentives for corporations. This doesn’t call for a federal law, but rather a negotiated treaty among the states.

The University of Chicago is mystified by an elaborate hoax... a package sent to Professor Henry "Indiana" Jones.

== Literary notes on Star Wars ==

First, a cool, modern mythology. Glad to see this old tribute of mine - "Buffy vs. The Old-Fashioned "Hero" - reposted by SmartPop Books. It was written a decade ago, when the "kick-ass" female warriors were Xena and Charlie's Angels and of course, the Buff-Maistress herself.  Today you have the ante upped by Kate Beckinsale in the Underworld series. Only to reinforce my point in this classic.  Be sure to look up the unique SmartPop series, which has the lovely market niche of swarming all over each new cultural phenomenon... with intellect! Try especially the book on King Kong!  And of course... Star Wars on Trial.

And now back to a recurring theme... the mythology and methodology of Star Wars. Over ripe critic Camille Paglia considers George Lucas "the greatest artist of our time."  In fact, it may surprise you that, as one of Lucas's fiercest critics (e.g. Star Wars on Trial), I am actually quite okay with Ms. Paglia's assessment. Sure, her inner motive was probably the sheer joy of tweaking the arts establishment.

And I have not altered a scintilla my dour assessment of the moral lessons that are taught in the Lucasian universe - especially by the films made after The Empire Strikes Back. I've long made the same point that Paglia does -- that Lucas's chief effect upon the world came from hiring, subsidizing and sponsoring  finest artistic talents of our generation.  Like Cosimo de Medici in his palace, or Rodin in his atelier, he surrounded himself with -- and provided a coherent theme to -- hundreds of brilliant men and women who might otherwise have had to seek more mundane employment.

He served as the impresario and conduit for society's consensus choice to dream larger than before. And yes, to dream outward, skyward, and in ways that view the onrush of technological change with some degree of expectation and courage.

Paglia describes how George Lucas grew up knowing where his passions lay -- in the visual aspects of storytelling.  Which might help explain why his best works were always in collaboration with others who appreciated his goals, but who could provide the augmentation that Lucas himself lacked -- a gift for plot, dialogue and logical meaning. Would it all have gone better if Lucas's emphasis on visual spectacle were accompanied by a willingness to hire good writers to do what they do well, which is write?  Of course it would.

But I take solace in this.  The "dark side" of the Lucasian Universe... its pitiless and relentless assault upon our confidence in a grownup, democratic, scientific, logical, open and fair civilization... simply glides on by most folks.  They never notice the sheer, unadulterated evil of "Yoda" because they shrug off everything the little monster says. We all ignore the preaching and faux-eastern claptrap "wisdom" and instead pay attention to the part that George Lucas is good at -- the glorious visuals. The comic book tension and release. The gorgeous textures of both raw and refined possibility.

-- David Brin

http://www.davidbrin.com

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