After that cranky and admittedly crackpot ( I pray that my theory is wrong) screed, let's lighten up with some exampled of civilization fighting back against the darkness! First this cool/nifty item offered by Stefan.
This video prompts you to ask yourself “Why haven’t big government and corporations done this?” -- stunning example of small enterprise paving our way into space. And proving they can do it re-usably! (Alas, it also supports paranoid theories that the big guys have been keeping us out of space... deliberately. If you want the most blatant proof possible, just listen to anything at all spoken by NASA Administrator Griffin.)
Let’s do it ourselves!
Chris Phoenix writes in: “I'm remembering the device in one of your books (Sundiver?) that has people look at a picture, and tracks where they look and for how long, in order to profile personality types and tell dangerous people from good citizens. Now it seems you can in fact tell something about mindset based on where people look. See below.”
PSYCHOLOGY: Pas des Yeux Gilbert Chin ( Psychol. Sci. 18, 407 (2007)) - A dialogue, though generally understood to be a conversation between two people, allows for much more than the mere exchange of verbal information. Linguistic (for example, syntax) and nonlinguistic (for example, body postures) tell-tales develop and become synchronized as people talk and listen. Visual attention is another dimension in which behavior can become coordinated as when a listener's gaze is directed toward an object of mutual interest by pointing.
Richardson et al. show that the eyes of conversants--who are looking at the same scene but are not within sight of each other--tracked the same objects within the scene for several seconds, starting from the time at which the speaker began to fixate on the object before talking about it and including the time taken by the listener to saccade to the object after hearing what the speaker had begun to say. Another important contribution to the coordination of visual attention comes from having a common ground of understanding. Conversants looking at a Salvador Dalí painting were more likely to exhibit synchronized eye movements if they had previously heard the same introduction, either to the painting itself or to Dalí's life, as compared to pairs of conversants in which one had heard about the painting and the other about his life. -- GJC
Anyone care to log this on that web sci fi predictions registry?
Chris continued: “This feels extremely important. Both for the kind of testing you proposed, and for studying what factors make people simpatico (or not). Or for testing how well they're communicating in real time. Or... If good communication is important to collective human survival, then I think this research needs to be expanded on ASAP.”
I responded: “Chris, I have long felt this was a totally huge "window to the soul" and possibly a lie detector as well. I am terrified stuff like this may fall into just a few hands and have striven for years to interest researchers, so it can be mass distributed.
“Alas, as with most of my big ideas, people go " Huh! Interesting!" Then do nothing. Oh, twenty years later, a few people send me emails.”
Chris’s final word:
“Eye trackers used to cost tens of thousands, and be a major pain to use. Now they cost $1000 and can track eyeballs from 30 feet away (says a recent news story, explaining how they can be used to research the effectiveness of ads and shelf placement). I'm reminded of Heinlein's line from The Door Into Summer: "When it's time to railroad, you railroad."
“Now that the tech is accessible to the masses, it shouldn't be too hard to get people working on it. You're a famous science fiction author--there's got to be thousands of bright students who would jump through some pretty high hoops in order to get a few hours of face time with you. I wonder what would happen if you simply published a call for research on your blog, saying that anyone who did cool research in this direction would be able to earn your personal attention thereby?”
And mine:
“Hrm, I wish it were that simple. I have tried that approach! (Believe it or not, that page comes up first when you google "self -righteous indignation" And # 12 in "self righteousness", so people are obviously reading it. Still, does anything actually happen?)
“In fact, I think the problems are related. Moreover zillions could be made off applications of eye-tracking correlation with personality/lie-detection. But nobody has any guts. Ah well.”
---
For a zazzy - though more mainstream liberal - feast of spicy zings at the far right, see the latest ARMAGEDDON BUFFET.
--- TIME FOR MISC DATADUMP! ---
The human and chimpanzee vary by just 1.2%, yet there is a considerable difference in the mental and linguistic capabilities of the two species. A new study showed that a certain form of neuropsin, a protein that plays a role in learning and memory, is expressed only in the central nervous systems of humans and that it originated less than 5 million years ago.
The sun and Earth will probably be spun out into a lonely region of space when the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies finish colliding about five billion years from now, researchers say in a new study. There's also a small chance that our solar system will be swept from its home in the Milky Way and be scooped up by Andromeda during an earlier close encounter, in just three-and-a-half-billion years.
Two teams of British researchers are seeking permission to create "cybrid" embryos that would be around 99.9 per cent human and 0.1 per cent animal to produce embryonic stem cells. They want to use the stem cells to understand and provide new treatments for diseases such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, cystic fibrosis, motor neurone disease and Huntington’s.
A study of thousands of websites across 120 Internet Service Providers found 25 of 41 countries surveyed showed evidence of government-sponsored content filtering. The study did not examine a number of countries in Europe or the US because there the private sector rather than the government tends to carry out filtering. The 25 countries which carry out the broadest range of filtering are listed at the bottom of the article.
==== ==== ====
For those who are not sure what source to believe, here is New Scientist’s roundup of the 26 most common climate myths and misconceptions. Also included is a guide to assessing the evidence: links to primary research and major reports for those who want to follow through to the original sources.
Mainstream climatologists who have feared that global warming could have the paradoxical effect of cooling northwestern Europe or even plunging it into a small ice age have stopped worrying about that particular disaster, although it retains a vivid hold on the public imagination. "The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe,"
The world's first commercial compressed air-powered vehicle is rolling towards the production line. The Air Car, developed by ex-Formula One engineer Guy Nègre, will be built by India's largest automaker, Tata Motors. The Air Car uses compressed air to push its engine's pistons. It is anticipated that approximately 6000 Air Cars will be cruising the streets of India by 2008. If the manufacturers have no surprises up their exhaust pipes the car will be practical and reasonably priced. The CityCat model will clock out at 68 mph with a driving range of 125 miles. Refueling is simple and will only take a few minutes. That is, if you live nearby a gas station with custom air compressor units. The cost of a fill up is approximately $2.00. If a driver doesn't have access to a compressor station, they will be able to plug into the electrical grid and use the car's built-in compressor to refill the tank in about 4 hours.
Australian researchers have developed a means of increasing a solar cell's light-trapping ability by up to 50% and increasing the power generated by 30%. The new process coats a thin film (about 10 nanometres thick) of silver onto a solar cell and heats it to 200C. The film breaks into tiny 100-nanometre "islands" of silver and raises its light-trapping efficiency
This is an op-ed piece listing energy solutions that are all technically available today in the order of their capacity to deliver. It also offers a commentary on the long term viability of so-called new fuels such as biodiesel, ethanol and hydrogen and nuclear energy generation.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Friday, June 01, 2007
The coming Iran war--- or perhaps they are not morons, after all
Are we headed toward war?
Russ Daggatt has been reminding us that the next twenty months are fraught with dangers, even as the Administration of George W. Bush settles into a tailspin of lame duck political irrelevance. It is vital to remember that, although despised by 3/4 of the electorate, the President retains several great powers.
For example the authority to grant pardons, which I discuss elsewhere - keeping his henchmen in line with the allure of get-out-of-jail-free cards. That is, unless the democrats decide to get really clever.
Of course, the great presidential power that Bush will find irresistible, as his days wane, is the one that he has used recklessly to make the mess we are in. That of ‘Commander in Chief.’ Daggatt worries, rightfully, that Bush will almost certainly use that power yet again, before leaving office. If for no other reason than it is there.
From all the signs -- some of them blatant -- the swan-song “decider” spasm will manifest in a fierce and sudden military attack upon Iran.
The waters are being tested and prepared. Take the recent piece in OpinionJournal, the online presence of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. It is by long-time editor of Commentary, Norman Podhoretz, generally considered the godfather of today's neoconservative movement. “The Case for Bombing Iran I hope and pray that President Bush will do it. “
Comments Daggatt: I'm not making this stuff up -- these are the guys Bush listens to. And it's not like they are keeping this secret. This is the WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Almost every paragraph has a factual error or some bizarre assertion -- I'm not even going to begin to try to refute them all.
(E.g., It is not true that "schools in England are dropping the Holocaust from history lessons to avoid offending Muslim pupils." It is still law in England that the Holocaust must be taught in English schools. This has become a very popular right-wing myth in this country. One unnamed teacher in one unnamed school in Northern England dropped it from one course -- but it was taught in other courses.)
Podhoretz seems to think that Iranians would respond to an attack by the US by overthrowing their own government ("But a bombing campaign would without question set back its nuclear program for years to come, and might even lead to the overthrow of the mullahs ").
Makes perfect sense. The US overthrew a democratically-elected Iranian government in the '50's (Iranians have a long memory about this kind of thing), shot down a Iranian civilian airliner in 1988 killing all 290 aboard, supported Saddam Hussein's war against them, has a couple of hundred thousand troops occupying countries on both sides of them, has it as official policy to overthrow the Iranian government, and is currently holding five Iranian consular officers hostage. But if the US engages in an unprovoked attacked on them, they would respond by overthrowing their own government.
That's what WE would do if attacked, obviously. And, after all, the neocons have pretty much a perfect track record forecasting outcomes of US military adventures in the Middle East. And there is a certain logic to their arguments -- the more we follow their advise, the more dangerous the world becomes, which forms a compelling paranoid case for following more of their advise. (It's like Republican ideology generally -- the more they screw up their management of our government, the more it supports their case that government is a total failure.)
Like other neocons urging an attack on Iran, Podhoretz expresses confidence that Bush will do so ("Accordingly, my guess is that [Bush] intends, within the next 21 months, to order air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities from the three U.S. aircraft carriers already sitting nearby. " Our only hope is that the neocons are as WRONG about this as they are about everything else they predict.). Seymour Hersh has been writing in The New Yorker about plans for such an attack for months. He anticipates a large number of military resignations if such an attack is actually ordered (the uniformed military may be our last, best hope for averting this disaster -- and we may never even know it, at least at the time).
---
Allow me to comment and offer my own perspectives on this frightening scenario.
First, and yet again, please find for me one commentator who has been saying, longer than I have, that our chief hope must rest upon the skill and loyalty and patriotism and basic sense of the men and women of the US Officer Corps. They are the top victims of this gang. The ones most relentlessly oppressed and harassed and intimidated by a clade of genuine monsters.
As for the rabid neocons. Yes, Podhoretz & co are absolutely loony. When it comes to predicting Iranian actions, they are recapitulating one of the worst mistakes that bad leaders have relentlessly repeated, 4,000 years of statecraft -- assuming smugly that the enemy will react in a way that is DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE to the way that you and I or any normal person would react.
Why do leaders and others do this? If we were attacked by an outside foe, we would rally together courageously, bury our differences and meet the challenge, even if we despise our leaders. It is what human beings nearly always do! Moreover, it is what Iranians have done -- on a lower lever, political scale -- ever since Condi Rice began her loco and insipid "Axis of Evil" campaign of saber-rattling. With the sole palpable effect of driving the moderate Iranian majority into the mullahs' arms.
IS THERE ANY CAUSE FOR HOPE?
All right, Daggatt and I are in agreement about Podhoretz. And we concur that a drumbeat is rising, propelling the fringe 20% of diehard neocons in this country toward declaring war on Iran, on behalf of the other 80% of us. Because - putting it simply - they have a president and we do not.
At risk of belaboring a point that merits endless repeating... to me, the issue is plain. Will the professionals of the intelligence community, the civil service, the foreign service and the United States Officer Corps find a way to do their jobs, at last? Will they, during the next 20 months of danger, protect us from this pack of outrageous lunatics who have hijacked the top three or four tiers of every Executive department of this great nation, filling those layers with graduates of BobJones University and Messiah College? With maniacal third raters who devoutly believe they are doing God's work by pushing us toward Armageddon?
I have ranted endlessly that "this is all about the professionals." Only they can penetrate the cabals, find out the truth, counter-suborn henchmen, and whistle-blow in ways that take away their power to destroy America. Only they can put in place procedures that would SLOW DOWN an attack on Iran, until sane and adult political processes can step in to shelter brave officers who just-say-no.
WHY THE RUSH TO YET ANOTHER WAR?
All right, that's the top agenda and I think we're in basic agreement so far. But...
...but where Russ and I differ is over WHY this is happening. Why the rush toward an attack upon Iran? With nearly all of our land forces already committed to a land war of attrition in Asia, why should we press the accelerator and take on another nation, several times the size of Iraq?
It seems that a great many sincere people are subscribing to a weird notion that Israel is the prime driver. That the Jewish state is fervently chomping on the bit to blow up every nuclear facility between the Jordan and the Indus. Some of our dear friends on the left point to the goggle-eyed, pro-Israel statements made by those on the neocons’ “Book of Revelations wing.” Fanatics who see Israel-centered wars leading to the Big One on the Plains of Meggido - yum..
It's all very elegant and satisfying. And indeed, the most rabid of the fundamentalist Israel supporters do seem to fit this image.
But do the Israelis themselves? Not according to my contacts over there, who universally tell me that there is deep worry about being pushed into war with Iran by an over-eager US administration. (They are also very, very wary of their “dear friends” on the fundamentalist movement, who ALSO yearn for blood to gush from the eyes of every Jew who refuses to convert, when the Battle of Armageddon comes around. DOUBLE yum!)
Look, the Israelis do not have time for delusional games. These people are grownups who have their kids lives on the line. They know that A few bombed reactors will swiftly be replaced by others, financed by the Saudis. Pakistan already has nukes and these may swiftly be put at the disposal of a pan-Islamic Uma, if that widely sought dream ever comes about. (OUR fundies are not the only ones dreaming about a showdown in Megiddo!)
Despite short term hopes of hampering Iranian bomb production, in the intermediate term, Israel is going to have to rely upon deterrence, the same way the US did, threatening enemies with MAD.
In the long term, only peace will save the region from some horrible day. And the Bushites have done nothing to propel that. Zero engagement. Not a finger lifted. Because the their best friends in the region do not want it.
The Israelis know this. And except for their own fringe, nobody on Earth will be more glad to see a new US Administration. One that is run by adults.
THEN WHAT’S THE UNDERLYING REASON?
So, if it ain't Israel, WHY is the Bush Cabal violating every principle of leadership, government, or common sense and preparing to launch yet another war, when our reserves are already committed, our alliances are already in tatters, our social cohesion already ruined, our finances beggared and our nerves already frayed?
We keep on trying to explain Bushite behavior by adding epicycles of stupidity, graft, dogmatism and insanity. These Ptolemaic edifices often collapse -- (for example, if we went to Iraq for oil... where's the damned oil?) -- but always excuses are made and new epicycles inserted so that the gears keep turning to the satisfaction of those who hate these guys.
I do, too!
But maybe it's my union card as an astronomer... and a guy who helped to plan space missions ... that makes me grow weary of constantly filing and shaping and refitting gears in order to maintain a theory that simply does not work anymore!
Because, even though I believe that the Cheneykleps ARE stupid, venial, fanatical and insane, I also know that such people would have, by now, at least by sheer accident, have done ONE thing right! Complete morons would have stumbled into one successful policy, simply by random chance.
Instead, in managing the government of both America and Pax Americana, they have demolished nearly all of our strengths and made the whole world discontented with what had been a complacently-accepted unipolar world..
Their perfect record of mismanagement and destruction of US influence, popularity, power, wealth, cohesion, strength and so on ought to be suspicious! There comes a point when a mature, scientifically-minded person must consider other possibilities. At least for the sake of open-minded exercise.
OF COURSE, I COULD JUST BE MESSING WITH YOU.
I am paid to be interesting, not to be right. Yes, I have a top scoring record for successful predictions. But even more prevalent is a propensity for contrarian “poking.” At whatever notion seems prevalent or too-readily accepted as common “wisdom.”
Perhpas. Perhaps that is what’s going on here, right now, before your eyes.
Perhaps.
THEN AGAIN... PERHAPS THEY ARE NOT MORONS, AFTER ALL
Will anyone, anyone at all, be willing to ponder the simple, "Copernican" alternative explanation for all of this?
If the effect has been to ruin Pax Americana in twenty different ways... will NO ONE even posit the remote possibility that perhaps the universally consistent outcome of all administration practices might have been deliberate, after all?
Does it really take a fiction writer to ponder this “manchurian” thriller-plot, even as a remote possibility?
Try the idea on for size -- even if (like me!) you cannot bring yourself to believe it "officially." Because it certainly does fit the run up to a spasm-war against Iran, perfectly. Because such a spasm attack would:
* instantly unite all Iranians behind their mullahs for a decade.
* end the Sunni-Shia rift, uniting Hezbollah and Hamas and Al Quaeda, joining in common cause against the "crusaders."
* finish off our last shreds of popularity in Europe and anchor rising Russian influence in the Middle East.
* bring to the US Air Force and the US Navy all the joys that have been experienced, in recent years, by the Army and Marines. (While putting THREE CARRIER GROUPS into unnecessary jeopardy in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf...
Oh, I could go on, but here's the chief point. Stupidity, venality, dogmatism and insanity are insufficient to explain why a leadership clade would deliberately destroy the nation and system they are sworn to defend... and where they keep their money.
If you have a better explanation for the perfection of their record, and for the perfect way that certain groups have always benefited from apparently "stupid" decisions, then come on, out with it! But stop with the boring attempt to explain away such consistency as the product of epicycles of stupidity and coincidence.
The coming Iran War is much more than it seems.
It is proof that we need to finally slice through the epicycles and contemplate a simple, heliocentric explanation for the last six years.
(See also: Stop the IRAN War now…)
Russ Daggatt has been reminding us that the next twenty months are fraught with dangers, even as the Administration of George W. Bush settles into a tailspin of lame duck political irrelevance. It is vital to remember that, although despised by 3/4 of the electorate, the President retains several great powers.
Of course, the great presidential power that Bush will find irresistible, as his days wane, is the one that he has used recklessly to make the mess we are in. That of ‘Commander in Chief.’ Daggatt worries, rightfully, that Bush will almost certainly use that power yet again, before leaving office. If for no other reason than it is there.
From all the signs -- some of them blatant -- the swan-song “decider” spasm will manifest in a fierce and sudden military attack upon Iran.
The waters are being tested and prepared. Take the recent piece in OpinionJournal, the online presence of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. It is by long-time editor of Commentary, Norman Podhoretz, generally considered the godfather of today's neoconservative movement. “The Case for Bombing Iran I hope and pray that President Bush will do it. “
Comments Daggatt: I'm not making this stuff up -- these are the guys Bush listens to. And it's not like they are keeping this secret. This is the WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Almost every paragraph has a factual error or some bizarre assertion -- I'm not even going to begin to try to refute them all.
(E.g., It is not true that "schools in England are dropping the Holocaust from history lessons to avoid offending Muslim pupils." It is still law in England that the Holocaust must be taught in English schools. This has become a very popular right-wing myth in this country. One unnamed teacher in one unnamed school in Northern England dropped it from one course -- but it was taught in other courses.)
Podhoretz seems to think that Iranians would respond to an attack by the US by overthrowing their own government ("But a bombing campaign would without question set back its nuclear program for years to come, and might even lead to the overthrow of the mullahs ").
Makes perfect sense. The US overthrew a democratically-elected Iranian government in the '50's (Iranians have a long memory about this kind of thing), shot down a Iranian civilian airliner in 1988 killing all 290 aboard, supported Saddam Hussein's war against them, has a couple of hundred thousand troops occupying countries on both sides of them, has it as official policy to overthrow the Iranian government, and is currently holding five Iranian consular officers hostage. But if the US engages in an unprovoked attacked on them, they would respond by overthrowing their own government.
That's what WE would do if attacked, obviously. And, after all, the neocons have pretty much a perfect track record forecasting outcomes of US military adventures in the Middle East. And there is a certain logic to their arguments -- the more we follow their advise, the more dangerous the world becomes, which forms a compelling paranoid case for following more of their advise. (It's like Republican ideology generally -- the more they screw up their management of our government, the more it supports their case that government is a total failure.)
Like other neocons urging an attack on Iran, Podhoretz expresses confidence that Bush will do so ("Accordingly, my guess is that [Bush] intends, within the next 21 months, to order air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities from the three U.S. aircraft carriers already sitting nearby. " Our only hope is that the neocons are as WRONG about this as they are about everything else they predict.). Seymour Hersh has been writing in The New Yorker about plans for such an attack for months. He anticipates a large number of military resignations if such an attack is actually ordered (the uniformed military may be our last, best hope for averting this disaster -- and we may never even know it, at least at the time).
---
Allow me to comment and offer my own perspectives on this frightening scenario.
First, and yet again, please find for me one commentator who has been saying, longer than I have, that our chief hope must rest upon the skill and loyalty and patriotism and basic sense of the men and women of the US Officer Corps. They are the top victims of this gang. The ones most relentlessly oppressed and harassed and intimidated by a clade of genuine monsters.
As for the rabid neocons. Yes, Podhoretz & co are absolutely loony. When it comes to predicting Iranian actions, they are recapitulating one of the worst mistakes that bad leaders have relentlessly repeated, 4,000 years of statecraft -- assuming smugly that the enemy will react in a way that is DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE to the way that you and I or any normal person would react.
Why do leaders and others do this? If we were attacked by an outside foe, we would rally together courageously, bury our differences and meet the challenge, even if we despise our leaders. It is what human beings nearly always do! Moreover, it is what Iranians have done -- on a lower lever, political scale -- ever since Condi Rice began her loco and insipid "Axis of Evil" campaign of saber-rattling. With the sole palpable effect of driving the moderate Iranian majority into the mullahs' arms.
IS THERE ANY CAUSE FOR HOPE?
All right, Daggatt and I are in agreement about Podhoretz. And we concur that a drumbeat is rising, propelling the fringe 20% of diehard neocons in this country toward declaring war on Iran, on behalf of the other 80% of us. Because - putting it simply - they have a president and we do not.
At risk of belaboring a point that merits endless repeating... to me, the issue is plain. Will the professionals of the intelligence community, the civil service, the foreign service and the United States Officer Corps find a way to do their jobs, at last? Will they, during the next 20 months of danger, protect us from this pack of outrageous lunatics who have hijacked the top three or four tiers of every Executive department of this great nation, filling those layers with graduates of BobJones University and Messiah College? With maniacal third raters who devoutly believe they are doing God's work by pushing us toward Armageddon?
I have ranted endlessly that "this is all about the professionals." Only they can penetrate the cabals, find out the truth, counter-suborn henchmen, and whistle-blow in ways that take away their power to destroy America. Only they can put in place procedures that would SLOW DOWN an attack on Iran, until sane and adult political processes can step in to shelter brave officers who just-say-no.
WHY THE RUSH TO YET ANOTHER WAR?
All right, that's the top agenda and I think we're in basic agreement so far. But...
...but where Russ and I differ is over WHY this is happening. Why the rush toward an attack upon Iran? With nearly all of our land forces already committed to a land war of attrition in Asia, why should we press the accelerator and take on another nation, several times the size of Iraq?
It seems that a great many sincere people are subscribing to a weird notion that Israel is the prime driver. That the Jewish state is fervently chomping on the bit to blow up every nuclear facility between the Jordan and the Indus. Some of our dear friends on the left point to the goggle-eyed, pro-Israel statements made by those on the neocons’ “Book of Revelations wing.” Fanatics who see Israel-centered wars leading to the Big One on the Plains of Meggido - yum..
It's all very elegant and satisfying. And indeed, the most rabid of the fundamentalist Israel supporters do seem to fit this image.
But do the Israelis themselves? Not according to my contacts over there, who universally tell me that there is deep worry about being pushed into war with Iran by an over-eager US administration. (They are also very, very wary of their “dear friends” on the fundamentalist movement, who ALSO yearn for blood to gush from the eyes of every Jew who refuses to convert, when the Battle of Armageddon comes around. DOUBLE yum!)
Look, the Israelis do not have time for delusional games. These people are grownups who have their kids lives on the line. They know that A few bombed reactors will swiftly be replaced by others, financed by the Saudis. Pakistan already has nukes and these may swiftly be put at the disposal of a pan-Islamic Uma, if that widely sought dream ever comes about. (OUR fundies are not the only ones dreaming about a showdown in Megiddo!)
Despite short term hopes of hampering Iranian bomb production, in the intermediate term, Israel is going to have to rely upon deterrence, the same way the US did, threatening enemies with MAD.
In the long term, only peace will save the region from some horrible day. And the Bushites have done nothing to propel that. Zero engagement. Not a finger lifted. Because the their best friends in the region do not want it.
The Israelis know this. And except for their own fringe, nobody on Earth will be more glad to see a new US Administration. One that is run by adults.
THEN WHAT’S THE UNDERLYING REASON?
So, if it ain't Israel, WHY is the Bush Cabal violating every principle of leadership, government, or common sense and preparing to launch yet another war, when our reserves are already committed, our alliances are already in tatters, our social cohesion already ruined, our finances beggared and our nerves already frayed?
We keep on trying to explain Bushite behavior by adding epicycles of stupidity, graft, dogmatism and insanity. These Ptolemaic edifices often collapse -- (for example, if we went to Iraq for oil... where's the damned oil?) -- but always excuses are made and new epicycles inserted so that the gears keep turning to the satisfaction of those who hate these guys.
I do, too!
But maybe it's my union card as an astronomer... and a guy who helped to plan space missions ... that makes me grow weary of constantly filing and shaping and refitting gears in order to maintain a theory that simply does not work anymore!
Because, even though I believe that the Cheneykleps ARE stupid, venial, fanatical and insane, I also know that such people would have, by now, at least by sheer accident, have done ONE thing right! Complete morons would have stumbled into one successful policy, simply by random chance.
Instead, in managing the government of both America and Pax Americana, they have demolished nearly all of our strengths and made the whole world discontented with what had been a complacently-accepted unipolar world..
Their perfect record of mismanagement and destruction of US influence, popularity, power, wealth, cohesion, strength and so on ought to be suspicious! There comes a point when a mature, scientifically-minded person must consider other possibilities. At least for the sake of open-minded exercise.
OF COURSE, I COULD JUST BE MESSING WITH YOU.
I am paid to be interesting, not to be right. Yes, I have a top scoring record for successful predictions. But even more prevalent is a propensity for contrarian “poking.” At whatever notion seems prevalent or too-readily accepted as common “wisdom.”
Perhpas. Perhaps that is what’s going on here, right now, before your eyes.
Perhaps.
THEN AGAIN... PERHAPS THEY ARE NOT MORONS, AFTER ALL
Will anyone, anyone at all, be willing to ponder the simple, "Copernican" alternative explanation for all of this?
If the effect has been to ruin Pax Americana in twenty different ways... will NO ONE even posit the remote possibility that perhaps the universally consistent outcome of all administration practices might have been deliberate, after all?
Does it really take a fiction writer to ponder this “manchurian” thriller-plot, even as a remote possibility?
Try the idea on for size -- even if (like me!) you cannot bring yourself to believe it "officially." Because it certainly does fit the run up to a spasm-war against Iran, perfectly. Because such a spasm attack would:
* instantly unite all Iranians behind their mullahs for a decade.
* end the Sunni-Shia rift, uniting Hezbollah and Hamas and Al Quaeda, joining in common cause against the "crusaders."
* finish off our last shreds of popularity in Europe and anchor rising Russian influence in the Middle East.
* bring to the US Air Force and the US Navy all the joys that have been experienced, in recent years, by the Army and Marines. (While putting THREE CARRIER GROUPS into unnecessary jeopardy in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf...
Oh, I could go on, but here's the chief point. Stupidity, venality, dogmatism and insanity are insufficient to explain why a leadership clade would deliberately destroy the nation and system they are sworn to defend... and where they keep their money.
If you have a better explanation for the perfection of their record, and for the perfect way that certain groups have always benefited from apparently "stupid" decisions, then come on, out with it! But stop with the boring attempt to explain away such consistency as the product of epicycles of stupidity and coincidence.
The coming Iran War is much more than it seems.
It is proof that we need to finally slice through the epicycles and contemplate a simple, heliocentric explanation for the last six years.
(See also: Stop the IRAN War now…)
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Misc wonders...
For many years I have consulted with government agencies (e.g. DoD, CIA, AirForce, DTRA and Homeland Security) about potential “unusual threats and opportunities.” So have several of my colleagues in the futurist/science-fiction game - proving that there are many skilled professionals at the upper-middle ranks who know the value of technologically informed imagination, in peering at the dangers that may lie ahead. Some scientifically qualified authors even formed a think tank consultation outfit called SIGMA years ago, in order to provide this kind of service at a larger scale. Alas, SIGMA never really took off...
...till now, that is. In a recent issue of USA Today you can read about the latest DHS conference at which SIGMA members explored dire scenarios of peril for the US Homeland. I was unable to attend. But do read abouyt Greg Bear and Larry Niven and others, hard at work using those “lamps on the brow” to peer ahead for the greater good.
----- More Misc Items ----
-- Consider someone who has just died of a heart attack. His organs are intact, he hasn't lost blood. All that's happened is his heart has stopped beating—the definition of "clinical death"—and his brain has shut down to conserve oxygen. But what has actually died? As recently as 1993, when Dr. Sherwin Nuland wrote the best seller "How We Die: Reflections on Life's Final Chapter," the conventional answer was that it was his cells that had died. The patient couldn't be revived because the tissues of his brain and heart had suffered irreversible damage from lack of oxygen. This process was understood to begin after just four or five minutes. If the patient doesn't receive cardiopulmonary resuscitation within that time, and if his heart can't be restarted soon thereafter, he is unlikely to recover. That dogma went unquestioned until researchers actually looked at oxygen-starved heart cells under a microscope. What they saw amazed them, according to Dr. Lance Becker, an authority on emergency medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. "After one hour," he says, "we couldn't see evidence the cells had died.
But if the cells are still alive, why can't doctors revive someone who has been dead for an hour? Because once the cells have been without oxygen for more than five minutes, they die when their oxygen supply is resumed. "It looks to us," says Becker, "as if the cellular surveillance mechanism cannot tell the difference between a cancer cell and a cell being reperfused with oxygen. Something throws the switch that makes the cell die."
With this realization came another: that standard emergency-room procedure has it exactly backward. When someone collapses on the street of cardiac arrest, if he's lucky he will receive immediate CPR, maintaining circulation until he can be revived in the hospital. But the rest will have gone 10 or 15 minutes or more without a heartbeat by the time they reach the emergency department. And then what happens? "We give them oxygen," Becker says. "We jolt the heart with the paddles, we pump in epinephrine to force it to beat, so it's taking up more oxygen." Blood-starved heart muscle is suddenly flooded with oxygen, precisely the situation that leads to cell death. Instead, Becker says, we should aim to reduce oxygen uptake, slow metabolism and adjust the blood chemistry for gradual and safe reperfusion. WOW!
Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have found a way to stimulate the slow waves typical of deep sleep by the use of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to send a harmless magnetic signal through the skulls of sleeping folks.
India Looks To Produce World's First
European researchers have integrated thin-film organic solar cells with a flexiblehttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif polymer battery to produce a lightweight and ultrathin solar battery for low-wattage electronic devices, such as smart cards and mobile phones. The battery can recharge itself when exposed to natural or indoor sunlight
Scientists at Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (Spawar) claim they have achieved a low energy nuclear reaction (LERN) in an experiment that can be replicated and tested.
Much more efficient solar cells that make solar power about as cheap as electricity from the electric grid may soon be possible as a result of technology that more efficiently captures and uses light.
NASA will likely shut down its Institute for Advanced Concepts, which funds research into futuristic ideas in spaceflight and aeronautics, such as spacecraft that could surf the solar system on magnetic fields, motion-sensitive spacesuits that could generate power, and tiny, spherical robots that could explore Mars.
"metamaterial" that selectively filters terahertz radiation could perhaps be used for short-range wireless communications. The device is essentially a sheet of metal foil incorporating a carefully designed pattern of holes. It is a so-called metamaterial, since it interacts with electromagnetic waves in novel ways.
A sensor chip controlled not by wires and transistors, but by a living slime mould marks an important step towards more widespread use of biologically-driven components and devices.
Interesting interview re the quest for “intelligence” in . ”Ihave set these goals: the object recognition capabilities of a 2-year-old child, the language understanding of a 4-year-old.”
To which I would add a third & hardest far-out goal. The common sense of a chicken.
TerraPass is a company that sells "carbon offsets," mostly to individuals. What is a carbon offset? I’m glad you asked. Here’s how it works - customers come to the website, plug in the cars they drive, home energy usage, and airplane travel, and get back a calculation of how much carbon dioxide they are putting into the atmosphere every year. TerraPass then lets them pay renewable energy and efficiency projects to reduce emissions by the equivalent amount. So for example you might find that the "carbon footprint" of your minivan is 4 tons of carbon dioxide/year. Through the TerraPass website, you pay about $35, and your money is bundled with money from other customers to pay for reduction projects, or to keep ongoing projects in business. Typical project might be a landfill that is seeping methane gas (one of the worst of the global warming offenders), and TerraPass customer money is paying a developer to destroy or flare off that methane so it never enters the atmosphere. TerraPass is still small enough that we aren’t supporting projects single-handedly, and some projects also make some money by selling electricity, but you get the idea.
At the other end, Russ Daggatt offers this: ”By the time global warming got to the point where there was a broad scientific consensus that action was required there wasn't a whole lot of time to act before the problem gets beyond our ability to mitigate it. To our great misfortune, George W. Bush became president just as recognition of the problem became clear. Eight years is a long time in that context.
“Of course, it hasn't helped that ExxonMobil has spent $23 million since 1998 ($2.1 million in 2006 alone) funding various global warming denier groups http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laurie-david/catching-the-tiger-in the_b_48787.html. There should be a special place in Hell for them (actually, if Houston, where they have their headquarters, gets any hotter and smoggier than it already is, it might qualify). But even Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson now says, "It is clear that something is going on. It is not useful to debate (the issue) any longer." Not that he is actually doing anything about it (like ... you know, maybe cutting off funding to deceptive pseudo-science).”
A special place in hell, indeed.
Speaking of which...
"Star Wars" documentary reveals nothing.
In interview after interview, punctuated with film clip after film clip, one "Star Wars" authority after another compares the stories in the films to great epics and classical mythology. Over two hours, experts (an assortment that includes anchor Dan Rather, director Peter Jackson, journalist Linda Ellerbee, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and political satirist Stephen Colbert) find parallels to "The Iliad," "The Odyssey," "The Lord of the Rings," "Paradise Lost," "Jason and the Argonauts," "Hamlet" and the story of Christianity, among others. Rarely has so much time been spent on elaborating the obvious.
On this, the 30th anniversary of the first "Star Wars" film, it would have been more interesting to assess how well Lucas fulfilled his vision, but there is not a syllable of criticism uttered. Not even about JarJar Binks. And, although Lucas' production company helped make the special, there isn't a single frame of Lucas discussing the underlying philosophy of "Star Wars," how it evolved and how well, in retrospect, it was reflected in the films. Was he off in some galaxy far away?
ah well....
And now, from the Transparency front...
The Visible Man: An FBI Target Puts His Whole Life Online
Hasan Elahi whips out his Samsung Pocket PC phone and shows me how he's keeping himself out of Guantanamo. He swivels the camera lens around and snaps a picture of the Manhattan Starbucks where we're drinking coffee. Then he squints and pecks at the phone's touchscreen. "OK! It's uploading now," says the cheery, 35-year-old artist and Rutgers professor, whose bleached-blond hair complements his fluorescent-green pants. "It'll go public in a few seconds." Sure enough, a moment later the shot appears on the front page of his Web site, TrackingTransience.net.
...Elahi's site is the perfect alibi. Or an audacious art project. Or both. The Bangladeshi-born American says the US government mistakenly listed him on its terrorist watch list — and once you're on, it's hard to get off. To convince the Feds of his innocence, Elahi has made his life an open book. Whenever they want, officials can go to his site and see where he is and what he's doing. Indeed, his server logs show hits from the Pentagon, the Secretary of Defense, and the Executive Office of the President, among others.
The globe-hopping prof says his overexposed life began in 2002, when he stepped off a flight from the Netherlands and was detained at the Detroit airport. He says FBI agents later told him they'd been tipped off that he was hoarding explosives in a Florida storage unit; subsequent lie detector tests convinced them he wasn't their man. But with his frequent travel — Elahi logs more than 70,000 air miles a year exhibiting his art work and attending conferences — he figured it was only a matter of time before he got hauled in again. He might even be shipped off to Gitmo before anyone realized their mistake. The FBI agents had given him their phone number, so he decided to call before each trip; that way, they could alert the field offices. He hasn't been detained since.
I’d have to classify this as something that may have started out 80% self-protection but is now 90% “art”. Great art, but the story hardly looks like top case on my Amnesty International intervention list. The guy seems to have seized the initiative in ways that we all approve-of, here. You go, boy.
And finally...
Gotta see these way cool handmade Steampunk Rayguns From the F/X Guys at Weta.
...till now, that is. In a recent issue of USA Today you can read about the latest DHS conference at which SIGMA members explored dire scenarios of peril for the US Homeland. I was unable to attend. But do read abouyt Greg Bear and Larry Niven and others, hard at work using those “lamps on the brow” to peer ahead for the greater good.
----- More Misc Items ----
-- Consider someone who has just died of a heart attack. His organs are intact, he hasn't lost blood. All that's happened is his heart has stopped beating—the definition of "clinical death"—and his brain has shut down to conserve oxygen. But what has actually died? As recently as 1993, when Dr. Sherwin Nuland wrote the best seller "How We Die: Reflections on Life's Final Chapter," the conventional answer was that it was his cells that had died. The patient couldn't be revived because the tissues of his brain and heart had suffered irreversible damage from lack of oxygen. This process was understood to begin after just four or five minutes. If the patient doesn't receive cardiopulmonary resuscitation within that time, and if his heart can't be restarted soon thereafter, he is unlikely to recover. That dogma went unquestioned until researchers actually looked at oxygen-starved heart cells under a microscope. What they saw amazed them, according to Dr. Lance Becker, an authority on emergency medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. "After one hour," he says, "we couldn't see evidence the cells had died.
But if the cells are still alive, why can't doctors revive someone who has been dead for an hour? Because once the cells have been without oxygen for more than five minutes, they die when their oxygen supply is resumed. "It looks to us," says Becker, "as if the cellular surveillance mechanism cannot tell the difference between a cancer cell and a cell being reperfused with oxygen. Something throws the switch that makes the cell die."
With this realization came another: that standard emergency-room procedure has it exactly backward. When someone collapses on the street of cardiac arrest, if he's lucky he will receive immediate CPR, maintaining circulation until he can be revived in the hospital. But the rest will have gone 10 or 15 minutes or more without a heartbeat by the time they reach the emergency department. And then what happens? "We give them oxygen," Becker says. "We jolt the heart with the paddles, we pump in epinephrine to force it to beat, so it's taking up more oxygen." Blood-starved heart muscle is suddenly flooded with oxygen, precisely the situation that leads to cell death. Instead, Becker says, we should aim to reduce oxygen uptake, slow metabolism and adjust the blood chemistry for gradual and safe reperfusion. WOW!
Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison have found a way to stimulate the slow waves typical of deep sleep by the use of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to send a harmless magnetic signal through the skulls of sleeping folks.
India Looks To Produce World's First
European researchers have integrated thin-film organic solar cells with a flexiblehttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gif polymer battery to produce a lightweight and ultrathin solar battery for low-wattage electronic devices, such as smart cards and mobile phones. The battery can recharge itself when exposed to natural or indoor sunlight
Scientists at Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center (Spawar) claim they have achieved a low energy nuclear reaction (LERN) in an experiment that can be replicated and tested.
Much more efficient solar cells that make solar power about as cheap as electricity from the electric grid may soon be possible as a result of technology that more efficiently captures and uses light.
NASA will likely shut down its Institute for Advanced Concepts, which funds research into futuristic ideas in spaceflight and aeronautics, such as spacecraft that could surf the solar system on magnetic fields, motion-sensitive spacesuits that could generate power, and tiny, spherical robots that could explore Mars.
"metamaterial" that selectively filters terahertz radiation could perhaps be used for short-range wireless communications. The device is essentially a sheet of metal foil incorporating a carefully designed pattern of holes. It is a so-called metamaterial, since it interacts with electromagnetic waves in novel ways.
A sensor chip controlled not by wires and transistors, but by a living slime mould marks an important step towards more widespread use of biologically-driven components and devices.
Interesting interview re the quest for “intelligence” in . ”Ihave set these goals: the object recognition capabilities of a 2-year-old child, the language understanding of a 4-year-old.”
To which I would add a third & hardest far-out goal. The common sense of a chicken.
TerraPass is a company that sells "carbon offsets," mostly to individuals. What is a carbon offset? I’m glad you asked. Here’s how it works - customers come to the website, plug in the cars they drive, home energy usage, and airplane travel, and get back a calculation of how much carbon dioxide they are putting into the atmosphere every year. TerraPass then lets them pay renewable energy and efficiency projects to reduce emissions by the equivalent amount. So for example you might find that the "carbon footprint" of your minivan is 4 tons of carbon dioxide/year. Through the TerraPass website, you pay about $35, and your money is bundled with money from other customers to pay for reduction projects, or to keep ongoing projects in business. Typical project might be a landfill that is seeping methane gas (one of the worst of the global warming offenders), and TerraPass customer money is paying a developer to destroy or flare off that methane so it never enters the atmosphere. TerraPass is still small enough that we aren’t supporting projects single-handedly, and some projects also make some money by selling electricity, but you get the idea.
At the other end, Russ Daggatt offers this: ”By the time global warming got to the point where there was a broad scientific consensus that action was required there wasn't a whole lot of time to act before the problem gets beyond our ability to mitigate it. To our great misfortune, George W. Bush became president just as recognition of the problem became clear. Eight years is a long time in that context.
“Of course, it hasn't helped that ExxonMobil has spent $23 million since 1998 ($2.1 million in 2006 alone) funding various global warming denier groups http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laurie-david/catching-the-tiger-in the_b_48787.html. There should be a special place in Hell for them (actually, if Houston, where they have their headquarters, gets any hotter and smoggier than it already is, it might qualify). But even Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson now says, "It is clear that something is going on. It is not useful to debate (the issue) any longer." Not that he is actually doing anything about it (like ... you know, maybe cutting off funding to deceptive pseudo-science).”
A special place in hell, indeed.
Speaking of which...
"Star Wars" documentary reveals nothing.
In interview after interview, punctuated with film clip after film clip, one "Star Wars" authority after another compares the stories in the films to great epics and classical mythology. Over two hours, experts (an assortment that includes anchor Dan Rather, director Peter Jackson, journalist Linda Ellerbee, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and political satirist Stephen Colbert) find parallels to "The Iliad," "The Odyssey," "The Lord of the Rings," "Paradise Lost," "Jason and the Argonauts," "Hamlet" and the story of Christianity, among others. Rarely has so much time been spent on elaborating the obvious.
On this, the 30th anniversary of the first "Star Wars" film, it would have been more interesting to assess how well Lucas fulfilled his vision, but there is not a syllable of criticism uttered. Not even about JarJar Binks. And, although Lucas' production company helped make the special, there isn't a single frame of Lucas discussing the underlying philosophy of "Star Wars," how it evolved and how well, in retrospect, it was reflected in the films. Was he off in some galaxy far away?
ah well....
And now, from the Transparency front...
The Visible Man: An FBI Target Puts His Whole Life Online
Hasan Elahi whips out his Samsung Pocket PC phone and shows me how he's keeping himself out of Guantanamo. He swivels the camera lens around and snaps a picture of the Manhattan Starbucks where we're drinking coffee. Then he squints and pecks at the phone's touchscreen. "OK! It's uploading now," says the cheery, 35-year-old artist and Rutgers professor, whose bleached-blond hair complements his fluorescent-green pants. "It'll go public in a few seconds." Sure enough, a moment later the shot appears on the front page of his Web site, TrackingTransience.net.
...Elahi's site is the perfect alibi. Or an audacious art project. Or both. The Bangladeshi-born American says the US government mistakenly listed him on its terrorist watch list — and once you're on, it's hard to get off. To convince the Feds of his innocence, Elahi has made his life an open book. Whenever they want, officials can go to his site and see where he is and what he's doing. Indeed, his server logs show hits from the Pentagon, the Secretary of Defense, and the Executive Office of the President, among others.
The globe-hopping prof says his overexposed life began in 2002, when he stepped off a flight from the Netherlands and was detained at the Detroit airport. He says FBI agents later told him they'd been tipped off that he was hoarding explosives in a Florida storage unit; subsequent lie detector tests convinced them he wasn't their man. But with his frequent travel — Elahi logs more than 70,000 air miles a year exhibiting his art work and attending conferences — he figured it was only a matter of time before he got hauled in again. He might even be shipped off to Gitmo before anyone realized their mistake. The FBI agents had given him their phone number, so he decided to call before each trip; that way, they could alert the field offices. He hasn't been detained since.
I’d have to classify this as something that may have started out 80% self-protection but is now 90% “art”. Great art, but the story hardly looks like top case on my Amnesty International intervention list. The guy seems to have seized the initiative in ways that we all approve-of, here. You go, boy.
And finally...
Gotta see these way cool handmade Steampunk Rayguns From the F/X Guys at Weta.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Back to Politics
The political lamp is lit. Not in my usual way but a bit hurried and haphazard. (Still catching up, carelessly!) ANd yet, important stuff.
Before other matters, let us turn to Russ Daggatt:
Yesterday, Memorial Day, 10 more American troops were killed in Iraq. That brings the total so far this month (with two days to go) to 117. Last month it was 104. That is the first time since Bush started this war that over 100 US troops have died in each of two consecutive months. Over 80 have died in each of the past six consecutive months -- prior to that, there had been no two consecutive months with over 80 US dead. It just keeps getting worse and worse. 557 in the past six months. In the six months prior to that it had been 417. 974 in the past year -- exceeding the 807 of the year prior to that. Every year is worse than the previous year. Every six months is worse than the six months before that.
And yet, as I've noted repeatedly, I'm now more worried about the next war -- against Iran -- than I am about Iraq. Bush is going to run out the clock on the Iraq war and there is probably little we can do about it. Unfortunately for those of us worried about an Iran war, there are mounting signs that we will attack Iran before the end of Bush's presidency. Not a certainty, but better than even odds and growing. Take this tidbit:
The CIA has received secret presidential approval to mount a covert "black" operation to destabilize the Iranian government, current and former officials in the intelligence community tell the Blotter on ABCNews.com.
The pretext, that Iran is allying itself with Sunni Al Qaeda in Iraq, adds yet another layer to the head-scratching that any sensible person ought to be doing till he’s bald. Um... exactly who are our “friends” over there and who is attacking us?
The Shiite-dominated and Iran-friendly Baghdad government? Al Sadr’s Mahdi Army? The Sunnis who oppose Al Sadr and the government? But aren’t they Al Qaeda? Isn’t the answer than NOBODY is on the friends list and EVERYBODY is on the enemy list?
So what the $#@$&! are we even TRYING to do over there?
(An aside, are leaks like this a sign that the professionals are acquiring some backbone, at last?)
---- More items -----
The Globalist remains an online journal that churns out brief pieces ranging from utterly dreary-boring to perspective broadening to downright boggling. One in the last category tells about a concept called the “Palestinian Arc” that would seem to be one of the foremost examples of modernist, problem-solving ambition that I have seen in a long time! (And to qualify, an idea has to have aspects that seem at least a bit, well, crackpot.)
It is well-worth looking at, just to sit back and go :”huh! If only people were that sensible!”
Alas, the article ALSO ties this project it to “redeeming Dick Cheney’s legacy”... a dubious and vastly more far fetched project. Moreover, it assumes that the very people who have deliberately kept their Palestinian cousins in camps for three generations, in order to maintain a festering wound to blame on Israel, will suddenly change their mind and share some oil -wealth pocket change, in order to vitalize a vibrant and modern Palestine, that would only spread modernist memes throughout the Middle East. Oh, yeah. That’s gonna happen.
A side note, this project contains some elements of applying geometry to developmental planning. Something I have long urged.
Ah, but here’s something more “believably Cheney.”
“April 10, 2007 Halliburton Says It's Done in Iran - The Halliburton Company said yesterday that its subsidiary that does business in Iran had completed all its commitments and was no longer working in the country. In January 2005, the company, which was once led by Vice President Dick Cheney, said that it would not accept new work in Iran but that it would complete existing contracts there.” Comments Russ Daggatt: “I could never understand how Cheney got away with this Iran business. The sanctions law prohibits using a foreign subsidiary to get around the sanctions unless the foreign sub is truly independent of the parent.”
My answer is that treason is only treason if you aren’t the one calling the shots and controlling the government.
In a grim sign of the times, the "Wall of the Fallen," set up by House Republican leaders in June, is almost full. The mounting death toll from Iraq has forced U.S. House staffers to study how to reconfigure the display in the lobby of the Rayburn Building - the largest office building for members of Congress - to squeeze in more names.
-------
Jamais Cascio has delivered another concise bit of wisdom in the form of a book review of John Robb’s BRAVE NEW WAR. Which joins the clade of modernist tomes that urge a model of western civilization that is based upon openness, adaptability and resiliency.
From Jamais’s essay:
Robb makes it clear that the tactics the United States (and, to a lesser extent, Europe and other post-industrial nations) now employs are bad, bad ideas. "Knee-jerk police states" and "preemptive war" fall into a category Robb borrows from security specialist : Bruce Schneier "brittle security." The big problem with brittle security is that, when it fails, it fails catastrophically; moreover, by employing these tactics, the U.S. (etc.) undermines the very moral suasion and memetic influence that are among the most important tools to fight empowered extremism.
I’ve not read Robb’s book, but I have to wonder if he cites Arquilla and Ronfeldt and their classic NETWAR and also IN ATHENA’S CAMP, two books that some years ago spoke cogently about matters of dispersed organizations taking on lumbering titans.
Cascio continues:
Looking more broadly, Robb lists three rules for successful "platforms," or sets of services, operating under his resiliency model: transparency (so all participants can see and understand what's happening); two-way (so all participants can act as both providers and consumers of the services); and openness (so the number and kind of participants isn't artificially limited). Again, these rules should sound very familiar to readers of (among other sites) Open the Future and WorldChanging. (Um... and, Jamais, some EARLIER sages on these topics? Ahem?)
I make a point of highlighting these similarities in order to demonstrate that the concepts that Robb discusses as a way of dealing with a particular kind of challenge actually have far broader applicability. An open, transparent, distributed and resilient system is precisely what’s needed to survive successfully threats from:
Natural disasters, such as tsunamis, earthquakes, and pandemic disease.
Environmental collapse, especially (but not solely) global warming.
Emerging transformative technologies, such as molecular manufacturing, cheap biotechnology and artificial general intelligence.
Open source warfare. and so on...
Jamais is one of the wise guys.
---
A final aside: watching Ken Burns’s wonderful CIVIL WAR documentary with my kids, I heard the way one Confederate soldier reacted, upon learning that poor men were to be drafted and kept in for the duration, while rich men were set loose to guy home and prosper and “keep an eye” on their slaves.
“Rich man’s war, poor man’s fight,” he muttered, in an expression that could easily apply to today’s war in Iraq, For we now face an incredible situation. In all of our past wars, the rich and mighty at least had the patriotism to step up and help pay for the struggle. But the elites behind today’s GOP, while calling upon the nation to sacrifice, deem nothing to be more sacred than their precious tax cuts.
Before other matters, let us turn to Russ Daggatt:
Yesterday, Memorial Day, 10 more American troops were killed in Iraq. That brings the total so far this month (with two days to go) to 117. Last month it was 104. That is the first time since Bush started this war that over 100 US troops have died in each of two consecutive months. Over 80 have died in each of the past six consecutive months -- prior to that, there had been no two consecutive months with over 80 US dead. It just keeps getting worse and worse. 557 in the past six months. In the six months prior to that it had been 417. 974 in the past year -- exceeding the 807 of the year prior to that. Every year is worse than the previous year. Every six months is worse than the six months before that.
And yet, as I've noted repeatedly, I'm now more worried about the next war -- against Iran -- than I am about Iraq. Bush is going to run out the clock on the Iraq war and there is probably little we can do about it. Unfortunately for those of us worried about an Iran war, there are mounting signs that we will attack Iran before the end of Bush's presidency. Not a certainty, but better than even odds and growing. Take this tidbit:
The CIA has received secret presidential approval to mount a covert "black" operation to destabilize the Iranian government, current and former officials in the intelligence community tell the Blotter on ABCNews.com.
The pretext, that Iran is allying itself with Sunni Al Qaeda in Iraq, adds yet another layer to the head-scratching that any sensible person ought to be doing till he’s bald. Um... exactly who are our “friends” over there and who is attacking us?
The Shiite-dominated and Iran-friendly Baghdad government? Al Sadr’s Mahdi Army? The Sunnis who oppose Al Sadr and the government? But aren’t they Al Qaeda? Isn’t the answer than NOBODY is on the friends list and EVERYBODY is on the enemy list?
So what the $#@$&! are we even TRYING to do over there?
(An aside, are leaks like this a sign that the professionals are acquiring some backbone, at last?)
---- More items -----
The Globalist remains an online journal that churns out brief pieces ranging from utterly dreary-boring to perspective broadening to downright boggling. One in the last category tells about a concept called the “Palestinian Arc” that would seem to be one of the foremost examples of modernist, problem-solving ambition that I have seen in a long time! (And to qualify, an idea has to have aspects that seem at least a bit, well, crackpot.)
It is well-worth looking at, just to sit back and go :”huh! If only people were that sensible!”
Alas, the article ALSO ties this project it to “redeeming Dick Cheney’s legacy”... a dubious and vastly more far fetched project. Moreover, it assumes that the very people who have deliberately kept their Palestinian cousins in camps for three generations, in order to maintain a festering wound to blame on Israel, will suddenly change their mind and share some oil -wealth pocket change, in order to vitalize a vibrant and modern Palestine, that would only spread modernist memes throughout the Middle East. Oh, yeah. That’s gonna happen.
A side note, this project contains some elements of applying geometry to developmental planning. Something I have long urged.
Ah, but here’s something more “believably Cheney.”
“April 10, 2007 Halliburton Says It's Done in Iran - The Halliburton Company said yesterday that its subsidiary that does business in Iran had completed all its commitments and was no longer working in the country. In January 2005, the company, which was once led by Vice President Dick Cheney, said that it would not accept new work in Iran but that it would complete existing contracts there.” Comments Russ Daggatt: “I could never understand how Cheney got away with this Iran business. The sanctions law prohibits using a foreign subsidiary to get around the sanctions unless the foreign sub is truly independent of the parent.”
My answer is that treason is only treason if you aren’t the one calling the shots and controlling the government.
In a grim sign of the times, the "Wall of the Fallen," set up by House Republican leaders in June, is almost full. The mounting death toll from Iraq has forced U.S. House staffers to study how to reconfigure the display in the lobby of the Rayburn Building - the largest office building for members of Congress - to squeeze in more names.
-------
Jamais Cascio has delivered another concise bit of wisdom in the form of a book review of John Robb’s BRAVE NEW WAR. Which joins the clade of modernist tomes that urge a model of western civilization that is based upon openness, adaptability and resiliency.
From Jamais’s essay:
Robb makes it clear that the tactics the United States (and, to a lesser extent, Europe and other post-industrial nations) now employs are bad, bad ideas. "Knee-jerk police states" and "preemptive war" fall into a category Robb borrows from security specialist : Bruce Schneier "brittle security." The big problem with brittle security is that, when it fails, it fails catastrophically; moreover, by employing these tactics, the U.S. (etc.) undermines the very moral suasion and memetic influence that are among the most important tools to fight empowered extremism.
I’ve not read Robb’s book, but I have to wonder if he cites Arquilla and Ronfeldt and their classic NETWAR and also IN ATHENA’S CAMP, two books that some years ago spoke cogently about matters of dispersed organizations taking on lumbering titans.
Cascio continues:
Looking more broadly, Robb lists three rules for successful "platforms," or sets of services, operating under his resiliency model: transparency (so all participants can see and understand what's happening); two-way (so all participants can act as both providers and consumers of the services); and openness (so the number and kind of participants isn't artificially limited). Again, these rules should sound very familiar to readers of (among other sites) Open the Future and WorldChanging. (Um... and, Jamais, some EARLIER sages on these topics? Ahem?)
I make a point of highlighting these similarities in order to demonstrate that the concepts that Robb discusses as a way of dealing with a particular kind of challenge actually have far broader applicability. An open, transparent, distributed and resilient system is precisely what’s needed to survive successfully threats from:
Natural disasters, such as tsunamis, earthquakes, and pandemic disease.
Environmental collapse, especially (but not solely) global warming.
Emerging transformative technologies, such as molecular manufacturing, cheap biotechnology and artificial general intelligence.
Open source warfare. and so on...
Jamais is one of the wise guys.
---
A final aside: watching Ken Burns’s wonderful CIVIL WAR documentary with my kids, I heard the way one Confederate soldier reacted, upon learning that poor men were to be drafted and kept in for the duration, while rich men were set loose to guy home and prosper and “keep an eye” on their slaves.
“Rich man’s war, poor man’s fight,” he muttered, in an expression that could easily apply to today’s war in Iraq, For we now face an incredible situation. In all of our past wars, the rich and mighty at least had the patriotism to step up and help pay for the struggle. But the elites behind today’s GOP, while calling upon the nation to sacrifice, deem nothing to be more sacred than their precious tax cuts.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
More Misc causes for guarded optimism.
Progress on some environmental fronts only proves that we are capable of “creation tending”. That means we are also obligated to do more. (And that those who rationalize a “disposable Earth” before the Book of Revelations comes true... are doing the devil’s work.).
From The Progressive Policy Institute:
The Numbers:
World chlorofluorocarbon consumption, 1986: 1.08 million tons
World chlorofluorocarbon consumption, 2006: 0.04 million tons
What They Mean:
The Americans who observed the first "Earth Day" in 1970 must have been short of breath. That year, American factories and cars pumped 197 million tons of carbon monoxide, 27 million tons of nitrogen dioxide, 12 million tons of soot and ash, 31 million tons of sulfur dioxide, and 220,000 tons of lead into the air. Four decades later, after two versions of the Clean Air Act, the air is better.
By 2005, the air-pollution output had fallen to 89 million tons of carbon monoxide, 19 million tons of nitrogen dioxide, and 2 million of particulate matter; lead, at 3,000 tons, is all but gone. National figures for "fishable" and "swimmable" rivers and lakes have also improved, and the nest-pair count for bald eagles in the lower 48 states has risen from 417 in the 1960s to almost 7,100. Meanwhile, the national GDP has tripled in real terms (from $3.8 trillion to $11.4 trillion in 2000 dollars) as employment has risen from 71 million to 137 million.
Four decades later, with environmentalism focused as intently on climate change and other global issues as on local and national concerns, is it possible to repeat the achievement? Though international environmental policy is far less developed than national laws, a look at one of the most successful multilateral environmental agreements -- the 20-year-old ban on use of "chlorofluorocarbons" -- offers reason for optimism.
Chlorofluorocarbons, known as "CFCs" for short, are carbon atoms or chains with the halide elements fluorine and chlorine substituted for hydrogen atoms. First synthesized by an American named Midgley in 1928, they were used between the 1930s and 1980s (along with some related chemicals) as refrigerator coolants, and sometimes as industrial solvents and cleansers too. Their makers regrettably did not know that CFCs react easily with ozone gas, which, floating about 15-35 kilometers above the earth, blocks ultraviolet light and so helps to prevent skin cancers. Early in the 1970s, scientists found that high-atmosphere CFCs had begun to thin the belts of ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere; and by the 1980s a large hole in the ozone layer had developed above the Antarctic.
Governments banned further production of CFCs in 1987. At that time, the world was using about 1.1 million tons of CFCs a year. Two decades on, the total is down to 43,000 tons, with the residual emissions said to be mainly from old refrigerators and fire extinguishers rather than new products. CFCs persist in the atmosphere for varying periods, and concentrations are only now beginning to decline. The shortest-lived gas of the group, methyl chloroform, is now all but gone; others will decline at slower rates, with the most persisting lasting until the 2050s and 2060s. Nonetheless, ozone-depleting chemical concentrations peaked in the late 1990s, and have now fallen by about 8.5 percent, declining first in the lower atmosphere and more recently in the stratosphere.
The U.N. Environmental Program's most recent assessment finds that ozone layers outside the poles are showing signs of recovery, and that the "hole" in the ozone layer above Antarctica has stopped growing. The o zone layer generally will likely return to natural rates by 2065 or 2070, as today's children pay for their grandchildren's college bills.
Other topical matters:
(Note: I am way too swamped to even spare the time to hot link all these tidbits that I've gathered. Most are worth pasting. Good luck all!)
http://www.10zenmonkeys.com/2007/05/09/keith-henson-back-in-jail-space-elevator-will-have-to-wait/ A matter on which I do not express opinions, but one which remains of topical interest to those who are interested in stuff like religion, transparency and the vaunted influence of science fiction authors... for well or ill.
http://www.physorg.com/news96287560.html New research shows that black holes are not the ultimate destroyers that they are often portrayed to be in popular culture. Instead, warm gas escaping from the clutches of enormous black holes could be one source of the chemical elements that make life possible.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18053937/ Russia is working on a space transport system that could eventually lead to the industrialization of the moon. Backers of the idea argue that the potential benefits - such as resource harvesting or pollution outsourcing - easily outweigh the risks and necessary investment capital.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/30/business/30energy.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin Money is flowing into alternative energy companies so fast that “the warning signs of a bubble are appearing,” according to a report on investment in clean technology by a New York research firm, Lux Research. The report also suggests that companies that make equipment to cleanse air or water, or that process waste, have been overlooked by investors.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/050307R.shtml Agrichar is the term for what is left over after the energy is removed from biomass: a charcoal-based soil amendment. The agrichar process takes dry biomass of any kind and bakes it in a kiln to produce charcoal. Various gases and bio-oils are driven off the material and collected to use in heat or power generation. The charcoal is then buried in the ground, sequestering the carbon that the plants had pulled out of the atmosphere. The end result is increased soil fertility and an energy source with negative carbon emissions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/07/technology/07copy.html?ex=1179201600&en=69c70399fc6dc794&ei=5070&emc=eta1 Agh, nobody ever listens to me! I proposed this exact thing to NASA in 1983.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/05/070502143631.htm Rice University scientists today revealed a breakthrough method for producing molecular specks of semiconductors called quantum dots, a discovery that could clear the way for better, cheaper solar energy panels.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6773&m=15453 Johns Hopkins scientists have discovered to their surprise that nerves in the mammalian brain's white matter do more than just ferry information between different brain regions, but in fact process information the way gray matter cells do.
http://www.technologyreview.com/Biotech/18618/ The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is now considering a project, dubbed the human microbiome, to sequence the microorganisms that inhabit our bodies.
http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/news/C4F1278703F2238BCC2572BC00157CC9 The US military plans to test an internet router in space, in a project that could also benefit civilian broadband satellite communications. Potential non-military benefits of DoD's Internet Routing In Space (IRIS) program include the ability to route IP traffic between satellites in space in much the same way packets are moved on the ground.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6734&m=15453 The founder of the ambitious "$100 laptop" project, which plans to give inexpensive computers to school children in developing countries, revealed Thursday that the machine for now costs $175, and it will be able to run Windows in addition to Linux.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6767&m=15453 Shades of GATTACA! US to outlaw corporate prejudice based on genes
http://physorg.com/news97255464.html -- Pratim Biswas and his group have developed a method to make a variety of oxide semiconductors that, when put into water promote chemical reactions that split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The method provides a new low cost and efficient option for hydrogen production.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6721&m=15453 Large swaths of garbled human DNA once dismissed as junk appear to contain some valuable sections, according to a new study by researchers at the Stanford University School of Medicine and the University of California-Santa Cruz. The scientists propose that this redeemed DNA plays a role in controlling when genes turn on and off.
...(there... that oughta hold the little buggers....)
From The Progressive Policy Institute:
The Numbers:
World chlorofluorocarbon consumption, 1986: 1.08 million tons
World chlorofluorocarbon consumption, 2006: 0.04 million tons
What They Mean:
The Americans who observed the first "Earth Day" in 1970 must have been short of breath. That year, American factories and cars pumped 197 million tons of carbon monoxide, 27 million tons of nitrogen dioxide, 12 million tons of soot and ash, 31 million tons of sulfur dioxide, and 220,000 tons of lead into the air. Four decades later, after two versions of the Clean Air Act, the air is better.
By 2005, the air-pollution output had fallen to 89 million tons of carbon monoxide, 19 million tons of nitrogen dioxide, and 2 million of particulate matter; lead, at 3,000 tons, is all but gone. National figures for "fishable" and "swimmable" rivers and lakes have also improved, and the nest-pair count for bald eagles in the lower 48 states has risen from 417 in the 1960s to almost 7,100. Meanwhile, the national GDP has tripled in real terms (from $3.8 trillion to $11.4 trillion in 2000 dollars) as employment has risen from 71 million to 137 million.
Four decades later, with environmentalism focused as intently on climate change and other global issues as on local and national concerns, is it possible to repeat the achievement? Though international environmental policy is far less developed than national laws, a look at one of the most successful multilateral environmental agreements -- the 20-year-old ban on use of "chlorofluorocarbons" -- offers reason for optimism.
Chlorofluorocarbons, known as "CFCs" for short, are carbon atoms or chains with the halide elements fluorine and chlorine substituted for hydrogen atoms. First synthesized by an American named Midgley in 1928, they were used between the 1930s and 1980s (along with some related chemicals) as refrigerator coolants, and sometimes as industrial solvents and cleansers too. Their makers regrettably did not know that CFCs react easily with ozone gas, which, floating about 15-35 kilometers above the earth, blocks ultraviolet light and so helps to prevent skin cancers. Early in the 1970s, scientists found that high-atmosphere CFCs had begun to thin the belts of ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere; and by the 1980s a large hole in the ozone layer had developed above the Antarctic.
Governments banned further production of CFCs in 1987. At that time, the world was using about 1.1 million tons of CFCs a year. Two decades on, the total is down to 43,000 tons, with the residual emissions said to be mainly from old refrigerators and fire extinguishers rather than new products. CFCs persist in the atmosphere for varying periods, and concentrations are only now beginning to decline. The shortest-lived gas of the group, methyl chloroform, is now all but gone; others will decline at slower rates, with the most persisting lasting until the 2050s and 2060s. Nonetheless, ozone-depleting chemical concentrations peaked in the late 1990s, and have now fallen by about 8.5 percent, declining first in the lower atmosphere and more recently in the stratosphere.
The U.N. Environmental Program's most recent assessment finds that ozone layers outside the poles are showing signs of recovery, and that the "hole" in the ozone layer above Antarctica has stopped growing. The o zone layer generally will likely return to natural rates by 2065 or 2070, as today's children pay for their grandchildren's college bills.
Other topical matters:
(Note: I am way too swamped to even spare the time to hot link all these tidbits that I've gathered. Most are worth pasting. Good luck all!)
http://www.10zenmonkeys.com/2007/05/09/keith-henson-back-in-jail-space-elevator-will-have-to-wait/ A matter on which I do not express opinions, but one which remains of topical interest to those who are interested in stuff like religion, transparency and the vaunted influence of science fiction authors... for well or ill.
http://www.physorg.com/news96287560.html New research shows that black holes are not the ultimate destroyers that they are often portrayed to be in popular culture. Instead, warm gas escaping from the clutches of enormous black holes could be one source of the chemical elements that make life possible.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18053937/ Russia is working on a space transport system that could eventually lead to the industrialization of the moon. Backers of the idea argue that the potential benefits - such as resource harvesting or pollution outsourcing - easily outweigh the risks and necessary investment capital.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/30/business/30energy.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin Money is flowing into alternative energy companies so fast that “the warning signs of a bubble are appearing,” according to a report on investment in clean technology by a New York research firm, Lux Research. The report also suggests that companies that make equipment to cleanse air or water, or that process waste, have been overlooked by investors.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/050307R.shtml Agrichar is the term for what is left over after the energy is removed from biomass: a charcoal-based soil amendment. The agrichar process takes dry biomass of any kind and bakes it in a kiln to produce charcoal. Various gases and bio-oils are driven off the material and collected to use in heat or power generation. The charcoal is then buried in the ground, sequestering the carbon that the plants had pulled out of the atmosphere. The end result is increased soil fertility and an energy source with negative carbon emissions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/07/technology/07copy.html?ex=1179201600&en=69c70399fc6dc794&ei=5070&emc=eta1 Agh, nobody ever listens to me! I proposed this exact thing to NASA in 1983.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/05/070502143631.htm Rice University scientists today revealed a breakthrough method for producing molecular specks of semiconductors called quantum dots, a discovery that could clear the way for better, cheaper solar energy panels.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6773&m=15453 Johns Hopkins scientists have discovered to their surprise that nerves in the mammalian brain's white matter do more than just ferry information between different brain regions, but in fact process information the way gray matter cells do.
http://www.technologyreview.com/Biotech/18618/ The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is now considering a project, dubbed the human microbiome, to sequence the microorganisms that inhabit our bodies.
http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/news/C4F1278703F2238BCC2572BC00157CC9 The US military plans to test an internet router in space, in a project that could also benefit civilian broadband satellite communications. Potential non-military benefits of DoD's Internet Routing In Space (IRIS) program include the ability to route IP traffic between satellites in space in much the same way packets are moved on the ground.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6734&m=15453 The founder of the ambitious "$100 laptop" project, which plans to give inexpensive computers to school children in developing countries, revealed Thursday that the machine for now costs $175, and it will be able to run Windows in addition to Linux.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6767&m=15453 Shades of GATTACA! US to outlaw corporate prejudice based on genes
http://physorg.com/news97255464.html -- Pratim Biswas and his group have developed a method to make a variety of oxide semiconductors that, when put into water promote chemical reactions that split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The method provides a new low cost and efficient option for hydrogen production.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6721&m=15453 Large swaths of garbled human DNA once dismissed as junk appear to contain some valuable sections, according to a new study by researchers at the Stanford University School of Medicine and the University of California-Santa Cruz. The scientists propose that this redeemed DNA plays a role in controlling when genes turn on and off.
...(there... that oughta hold the little buggers....)
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Unleash problem-solving
I've been asked to contribute to a coming WIRED issue that discusses "what we need from science." Here's a draft for comment. Of course, much of it will seem yawningly familiar to you folks....
Given the daunting range of problems and opportunities that we face, I'd have to say that our most urgent scientific and technological need is to develop better methods for problem-solving.
Some pieces to the puzzle are already getting attention. Governments and big institutions are developing ways to combine sensor meshes and data mining with powerful analytic and projection tools. But this emphasis on centralized or professional-level anticipation ignores the other half of the solution -- generating a resilient citizenry. A populace so knowing and capable that all problems get noticed and addressed, quickly, by a billion eyes.
Naturally, quild-credentialed professionals have mixed feelings about such a prospect. But, in fact, this trend is in keeping with the way markets, democracy and science all use lateral feedback, rather than than top-down control.
Of course, that won't be enough. We also need help from science to achieve rapid increases in effective human _intelligence and _sanity. This may be achieved somewhat through rising individual abilities, both at thinking and using advanced tools. But the real potential may be in better collective intelligence, through improved methods of positive sum debate and discourse. That will call for tools that are vastly better than the drivel that passes for "discussion" on today's websites and blogs.
Finally, I think the word "sanity" is ripe for rediscovery, after years of well deserved exile (for past, horrific mis-uses). We may be ready for a new, modern and eclectic definition -- one that is based upon tolerance, adaptability, satiability, positive-sum ambition and openness to change.
Above all, we may benefit immensely if science proves, at last, that self righteous indignation is an addictive, self-doped drug high. Imagine how moderate problem solvers of all kinds will be empowered, when they can point to yammering indignation-junkies at every end of the political spectrum, and tell them to get help.
Then, we might roll up our sleeves and start negotiating with each other like adults, finding ways to heal the world.
Given the daunting range of problems and opportunities that we face, I'd have to say that our most urgent scientific and technological need is to develop better methods for problem-solving.
Some pieces to the puzzle are already getting attention. Governments and big institutions are developing ways to combine sensor meshes and data mining with powerful analytic and projection tools. But this emphasis on centralized or professional-level anticipation ignores the other half of the solution -- generating a resilient citizenry. A populace so knowing and capable that all problems get noticed and addressed, quickly, by a billion eyes.
Naturally, quild-credentialed professionals have mixed feelings about such a prospect. But, in fact, this trend is in keeping with the way markets, democracy and science all use lateral feedback, rather than than top-down control.
Of course, that won't be enough. We also need help from science to achieve rapid increases in effective human _intelligence and _sanity. This may be achieved somewhat through rising individual abilities, both at thinking and using advanced tools. But the real potential may be in better collective intelligence, through improved methods of positive sum debate and discourse. That will call for tools that are vastly better than the drivel that passes for "discussion" on today's websites and blogs.
Finally, I think the word "sanity" is ripe for rediscovery, after years of well deserved exile (for past, horrific mis-uses). We may be ready for a new, modern and eclectic definition -- one that is based upon tolerance, adaptability, satiability, positive-sum ambition and openness to change.
Above all, we may benefit immensely if science proves, at last, that self righteous indignation is an addictive, self-doped drug high. Imagine how moderate problem solvers of all kinds will be empowered, when they can point to yammering indignation-junkies at every end of the political spectrum, and tell them to get help.
Then, we might roll up our sleeves and start negotiating with each other like adults, finding ways to heal the world.
Friday, May 18, 2007
Catching up on cool stuff...
Have any of you rushed out and bought the latest (June) issue of DISCOVER MAGAZINE? It’s well worth the cover price! (And spread the word.)
There are a few mistranscriptions. At one point it should say” “Try to imagine when biochemists do to their room sized labs what cyberneticists did to room-size computers of the past.” (The way they printed it doesn’t make any sense!) Still, it’s cool and you’ll catch a glimpse of my office.
Again, alas, amid a month that is hellishly busy, I have fallen terribly behind, so here’s a huge data dump of “cool items.”
-- Scientific research conducted by Walker Reading Technologies has concluded that the natural field of focus for our eyes is circular, so our eyes view the printed page as if we’re peering through a straw. Every time we read block text, we’re forcing our brain to a wage a constant subconscious battle with itself to filter and discard the superfluous inputs. Randall Walker MD, believes he and his team have developed a solution with a product called that allows online publishers to improve reading speed and comprehension. Live Ink works by analyzing written language for meaning and language structure, and then applies algorithms that reformat the text into a series of short, cascading phrases. It breaks complex syntax into simpler syntax, which makes it easier for the brain to absorb the material.
-- After more than a quarter-century of market-oriented economic policies and record-setting growth, China recently approved its first law to protect private property explicitly. The measure, which was delayed a year ago amid vocal opposition from resurgent socialist intellectuals and old-line, left-leaning members of the ruling Communist Party, is viewed by its supporters as building a new and more secure legal foundation for private entrepreneurs and the country's urban middle-class.
-- Physics professors have definitively shown that light is made of particles and waves, a finding that refutes a common belief held for about 80 years. Previously, the scientific community had tended to support Niels Bohr’s ideas, commonly known as the Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, which stated that in any experiment light shows only one aspect at a time, either behaving as a wave or as a particle.
-- Microscopic medical devices could one day be steered through a patient's bloodstream using magnetic resonance imaging machines.
-- The spread of a particularly virulent form of tuberculosis in South Africa illustrates a breakdown in the global program that is supposed to keep the disease, one of the world’s deadliest, under control.
-- Mosquitoes genetically engineered to resist infection with malaria have outbred their normal cousins and may be used to help control malaria. Also long overdue for extinction -- the reflex lefty dogma against GM, which is just about as loony as anything believed by the far-right, including “intelligent design.”
-- A fascinating demonstration of leading-edge technology with numerous potential applications.
-- See this kinda cool video (1min) which gives the “secret of immortality.”
-- Commonly used lab bacteria called E. coli can be converted into light-harvesting organisms in a single genetic step, according to new research from MIT.
-- Citizendium, just launched, is intended to avoid the errors, juvenile vandalism, and lack of accountability of Wikipedia. Citizendium's volunteer contributors will be expected to provide their real names. Experts in given fields will be asked to check articles.
-- Researchers from Johns Hopkins University and the University of California, Santa Barbara genetically engineered mice to express a third, humanlike photoreceptor, giving them human color vision. Can they do the same for humans? Turns out some people may actually have a fourth photoreceptor that detects within the visible range at a slightly different wavelength range than the other three.
-- In Google Inc.'s vision of the future, people will be able to translate documents instantly into the world's main languages, with machine logic, not expert linguists, leading the way.
-- Human Heart Grown from Stem Cells -- (Guardian - April 2, 2007) A research team led by the world's leading heart surgeon has grown part of a human heart from stem cells for the first time. If animal trials scheduled for later this year prove successful, replacement tissue could be used in transplants for the hundreds of thousands of people suffering from heart disease within three years.
-- Alzheimer's Vaccine Works on Mice -- (Guardian - March 29, 2007) Scientists have developed an oral vaccine for Alzheimer's disease that has proved effective in mice, raising hopes that an effective treatment for humans can be found. The vaccine reduced the amount of amyloid plaques - believed to be the cause of Alzheimer's - and improved brain function when administered to mice that had been genetically modified to develop the disease
-- Enzymes Convert All Donor Blood to Group O -- (New Scientist - April 1, 2007) You're rushed into hospital and need a blood transfusion – but what is your blood group? In future, it may not matter, thanks to enzymes that scrub antigens from red blood cells, turning all donated blood into group O – which can be given safely to anyone.
-- Welcome to the singularity. Actually, I find very little of that presentation frightening. What I find frightening is that so many of our fellow citizens find the future frightening. And thus, they may do unfortunate reactionary things.
-- Remember the odd, six-sided, honeycomb-shaped feature circling the entire north pole of Saturn? Then there is WC 922: The Red Square Nebula "What could cause a nebula to appear square? No one is quite sure. The hot star system known as MWC 922, however, appears to be imbedded in a nebula with just such a shape..."
An interesting amateur investigation of the proposition that human knowledge has been doubling at an accelarationg rate:
-- My friend Ben Goertzel explicates his optimism for superhuman AI in the near future at Ray Kurzweil’s site.
-- From the Arlington Institute” “This twenty minute video was constructed almost entirely using government/military quotes, animations, videos, images and photos. The narrative is sourced from government quotes from start to finish. It unveils the government’s numerous and ongoing programs related to artificial intelligence., “NBIC”, the “Global Information Grid”, nanotechnology, biotechnology, autonomous drones, “naval sea-bases”, space weapons and weather modification. The makers of the video clearly had an agenda that exceeded mere information. Leaving aside the agenda, the video is nonetheless an introduction into types of technology that many civilians know little about.”
-- Thanks Zecharia for referring us to an article about cell phones being upgraded with sensors to detect Chemical/Nuclear/Biological threats. Smart mobs! Where’s that prediction registry?
-- Do we even have to be restricted to five senses?
-- Old dreams are reborn... Pentagon Considering Study on Space-Based Solar Power.
-- Finally. By now you all know that astronomers have detected water in the atmosphere of a planet outside our solar system for the first time. I’ve commented before that water would still have a hard time pooling in large quantities, even if size and insolation are right, because a planet with a 13 day “year” around a red dwarf would be tidally locked, with one side always sunlit and another always dark, pulling in and freeze-storing all the water in vast ice sheets.
Still, here are the numbers:
Star Gl 581
Distance: 6.26 pc
Spectral Type: M3
Apparent Magnitude: V = 10.55
Mass: 0.31 Msun
Age: 4.3 Gyr
Radius: 0.38 Rsun
Metallicity [Fe/H]: -0.33 (± 0.12)
Right Ascension: 15 19 26
Declination: -07 43 20
Planet Gliese 581c
M.sin i: 0.0152 MJ
Semi major axis: 0.073 AU
Orbital period: 12.91 (± 0.007) days
Eccentricity: 0
There are a few mistranscriptions. At one point it should say” “Try to imagine when biochemists do to their room sized labs what cyberneticists did to room-size computers of the past.” (The way they printed it doesn’t make any sense!) Still, it’s cool and you’ll catch a glimpse of my office.
Again, alas, amid a month that is hellishly busy, I have fallen terribly behind, so here’s a huge data dump of “cool items.”
-- Scientific research conducted by Walker Reading Technologies has concluded that the natural field of focus for our eyes is circular, so our eyes view the printed page as if we’re peering through a straw. Every time we read block text, we’re forcing our brain to a wage a constant subconscious battle with itself to filter and discard the superfluous inputs. Randall Walker MD, believes he and his team have developed a solution with a product called that allows online publishers to improve reading speed and comprehension. Live Ink works by analyzing written language for meaning and language structure, and then applies algorithms that reformat the text into a series of short, cascading phrases. It breaks complex syntax into simpler syntax, which makes it easier for the brain to absorb the material.
-- After more than a quarter-century of market-oriented economic policies and record-setting growth, China recently approved its first law to protect private property explicitly. The measure, which was delayed a year ago amid vocal opposition from resurgent socialist intellectuals and old-line, left-leaning members of the ruling Communist Party, is viewed by its supporters as building a new and more secure legal foundation for private entrepreneurs and the country's urban middle-class.
-- Physics professors have definitively shown that light is made of particles and waves, a finding that refutes a common belief held for about 80 years. Previously, the scientific community had tended to support Niels Bohr’s ideas, commonly known as the Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, which stated that in any experiment light shows only one aspect at a time, either behaving as a wave or as a particle.
-- Microscopic medical devices could one day be steered through a patient's bloodstream using magnetic resonance imaging machines.
-- The spread of a particularly virulent form of tuberculosis in South Africa illustrates a breakdown in the global program that is supposed to keep the disease, one of the world’s deadliest, under control.
-- Mosquitoes genetically engineered to resist infection with malaria have outbred their normal cousins and may be used to help control malaria. Also long overdue for extinction -- the reflex lefty dogma against GM, which is just about as loony as anything believed by the far-right, including “intelligent design.”
-- A fascinating demonstration of leading-edge technology with numerous potential applications.
-- See this kinda cool video (1min) which gives the “secret of immortality.”
-- Commonly used lab bacteria called E. coli can be converted into light-harvesting organisms in a single genetic step, according to new research from MIT.
-- Citizendium, just launched, is intended to avoid the errors, juvenile vandalism, and lack of accountability of Wikipedia. Citizendium's volunteer contributors will be expected to provide their real names. Experts in given fields will be asked to check articles.
-- Researchers from Johns Hopkins University and the University of California, Santa Barbara genetically engineered mice to express a third, humanlike photoreceptor, giving them human color vision. Can they do the same for humans? Turns out some people may actually have a fourth photoreceptor that detects within the visible range at a slightly different wavelength range than the other three.
-- In Google Inc.'s vision of the future, people will be able to translate documents instantly into the world's main languages, with machine logic, not expert linguists, leading the way.
-- Human Heart Grown from Stem Cells -- (Guardian - April 2, 2007) A research team led by the world's leading heart surgeon has grown part of a human heart from stem cells for the first time. If animal trials scheduled for later this year prove successful, replacement tissue could be used in transplants for the hundreds of thousands of people suffering from heart disease within three years.
-- Alzheimer's Vaccine Works on Mice -- (Guardian - March 29, 2007) Scientists have developed an oral vaccine for Alzheimer's disease that has proved effective in mice, raising hopes that an effective treatment for humans can be found. The vaccine reduced the amount of amyloid plaques - believed to be the cause of Alzheimer's - and improved brain function when administered to mice that had been genetically modified to develop the disease
-- Enzymes Convert All Donor Blood to Group O -- (New Scientist - April 1, 2007) You're rushed into hospital and need a blood transfusion – but what is your blood group? In future, it may not matter, thanks to enzymes that scrub antigens from red blood cells, turning all donated blood into group O – which can be given safely to anyone.
-- Welcome to the singularity. Actually, I find very little of that presentation frightening. What I find frightening is that so many of our fellow citizens find the future frightening. And thus, they may do unfortunate reactionary things.
-- Remember the odd, six-sided, honeycomb-shaped feature circling the entire north pole of Saturn? Then there is WC 922: The Red Square Nebula "What could cause a nebula to appear square? No one is quite sure. The hot star system known as MWC 922, however, appears to be imbedded in a nebula with just such a shape..."
An interesting amateur investigation of the proposition that human knowledge has been doubling at an accelarationg rate:
-- My friend Ben Goertzel explicates his optimism for superhuman AI in the near future at Ray Kurzweil’s site.
-- From the Arlington Institute” “This twenty minute video was constructed almost entirely using government/military quotes, animations, videos, images and photos. The narrative is sourced from government quotes from start to finish. It unveils the government’s numerous and ongoing programs related to artificial intelligence., “NBIC”, the “Global Information Grid”, nanotechnology, biotechnology, autonomous drones, “naval sea-bases”, space weapons and weather modification. The makers of the video clearly had an agenda that exceeded mere information. Leaving aside the agenda, the video is nonetheless an introduction into types of technology that many civilians know little about.”
-- Thanks Zecharia for referring us to an article about cell phones being upgraded with sensors to detect Chemical/Nuclear/Biological threats. Smart mobs! Where’s that prediction registry?
-- Do we even have to be restricted to five senses?
-- Old dreams are reborn... Pentagon Considering Study on Space-Based Solar Power.
-- Finally. By now you all know that astronomers have detected water in the atmosphere of a planet outside our solar system for the first time. I’ve commented before that water would still have a hard time pooling in large quantities, even if size and insolation are right, because a planet with a 13 day “year” around a red dwarf would be tidally locked, with one side always sunlit and another always dark, pulling in and freeze-storing all the water in vast ice sheets.
Still, here are the numbers:
Star Gl 581
Distance: 6.26 pc
Spectral Type: M3
Apparent Magnitude: V = 10.55
Mass: 0.31 Msun
Age: 4.3 Gyr
Radius: 0.38 Rsun
Metallicity [Fe/H]: -0.33 (± 0.12)
Right Ascension: 15 19 26
Declination: -07 43 20
Planet Gliese 581c
M.sin i: 0.0152 MJ
Semi major axis: 0.073 AU
Orbital period: 12.91 (± 0.007) days
Eccentricity: 0
Saturday, May 12, 2007
From the Sublime to the Ridiculous... to the Just Plain Ugly... Part Four
Returning to finish our series. I started this part a couple of weeks ago. The article mentioned here has already been discussed pretty widely. Still, I think you’ll find my take on it a bit unique.
EXAMPLE #4: A mind that is larger can still be deliberately ugly.
Want to read something infuriating? The court rationalizers have begun getting frantic. No longer able to defend recent power-grabs on the specifics, they are now reaching out for general philosophical justifications for Bushite consolidations of power. Moves that would have driven them into a fury, had Bill Clinton done the same - or far milder - things.
And now, they are even conjuring up John Locke - founder of the Western Political Enlightenment - by tossing carefully twisted slices of his work into a stewpot, along with Machiavelli, Aristotle and Plato, trying to use democracy’s greatest philosopher to justify their inherent and deeply cynical distrust of democracy:
By all means, do have a look at: The Case for the Strong Executive: Under some circumstances, the rule of law must yield to the need for energy. by Harvey C. Mansfield (Harvard) Reprinted in the Wall Street Journal Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Go ahead and give him a chance, before coming back to my reply.
Gosh, no wonder Rupert Murdoch wants to buy the WSJ. Let me get swiftly to my overall reaction to this pile of erudite drivel.
First: I must amend my earlier missive - “Invite Them Back” - which appraised the way that leftists helped to forge today’s rabid neocons by driving many of them off campus, into intellectual whoredom for the owners of the Heritage Foundation and other aristocratic-private “academies.” Clearly, Mansfield proves that not all of the neocon monsters were driven off-campus, after all. Some stayed put, protected by tenure and by a thick enough skin to withstand sniping jabs from the PC Police.
Second: Cutting through all the convoluted horse-hocky, Mansfield has one tendentious goal, to justify the elevation, above systems of routine legal accountability, a central authority figure who stands above and beyond the rule of law. Mansfield even says this, explicitly, on several occasions!
What fascinates me is pondering why he would even try to make such an argument, so flagrantly in opposition to the fundamentals of the American social contract. Mansfield’s pile of rationalizations, so convoluted and inane, will not convince a majority of Americans - even those who never heard of Locke - let alone the scholars to whom his words are superficially addressed. Evidently, Mansfield’s arguments are not meant to convince a majority, or his peers.
Rather, they appear aimed to achieve a more modest but crucially pragmatic aim - to help stanch the hemorrhage of neoconservatism patronage by educated people in every walk of American life. His aim is not to convince many, but to offer just enough ostrich conservatives a little temporary mantric cover. Propping up some crucial Reagan Republicans, helping them rationalize, so that they may to continue supporting the insupportable for a while longer.
Mansfield does this by nursing a current of patrician fear-of-the-masses, exactly as happened in 1932 Germany, when members of the old Junkers aristocracy talked themselves into backing another “strong executive.”
----
Oh, Mansfield makes some good micro-points, for example describing how the American Founders wanted an executive capable of applying “energy” to the enforcement of laws - a chief of state and government who is able to take urgent action, when matters are dire and time is short.
(See below, where I discuss the distinction between “emergency room operations” and “elective procedures... an almost perfect metaphor for when the commander-in-chief override power should - or should not - be applied.)
Yes, there are some valid points. But that is Mansfield’s job, as an eloquent shill, to mix five parts reasonable with three parts questionable and one part stark-jibbering-lying-insane. After all, a spoonful of sugary validity helps the cyanide go down.
You can’t believe a Harvard Professor would spew such things? Actually dissing the very notion of the rule of law? I must be exaggerating? Let me offer you a snippet passage:
”Now the rule of law has two defects, each of which suggests the need for one-man rule. The first is that law is always imperfect by being universal, thus an average solution even in the best case, that is inferior to the living intelligence of a wise man on the spot, who can judge particular circumstances. This defect is discussed by Aristotle in the well-known passage in his "Politics" where he considers "whether it is more advantageous to be ruled by the best man or the best laws."
“The other defect is that the law does not know how to make itself obeyed. Law assumes obedience, and as such seems oblivious to resistance to the law by the "governed," as if it were enough to require criminals to turn themselves in. No, the law must be "enforced," as we say. There must be police, and the rulers over the police must use energy (Alexander Hamilton's term) in addition to reason. It is a delusion to believe that governments can have energy without ever resorting to the use of force.
“The best source of energy turns out to be the same as the best source of reason--one man. One man, or, to use Machiavelli's expression, uno solo, will be the greatest source of energy if he regards it as necessary to maintaining his own rule. Such a person will have the greatest incentive to be watchful, and to be both cruel and merciful in correct contrast and proportion. We are talking about Machiavelli's prince, the man whom in apparently unguarded moments he called a tyrant.”
---
Where does one even begin, trying to answer stuff like this? By pointing out that Machiavelli was the neoconservative turncoat of his day? A once-event warrior for Florentine democracy, who only turned to flattering aristocrats and tyrants when it seemed that his beloved cause was lost? And - well - a guy’s got to earn a living?
Or reminding Mansfield what he well-knows, that the rule of law was established precisely because one-man rule has - historically - nearly always been an open invitation to outright disaster?
Or by asking him how is argument will stand up, when the towering authority figure up-high is someone from a faction he doesn’t like so much? One who doesn’t flatter him, or invite him to the right parties, or make policies that he cares for?
But I get ahead of myself. Russ Daggatt offers a clearcut rebuttal.
According to Bush, Congress doesn't have the power to condition its war funding on a directive to redeploy troops from Iraq. This is just a continuation of his practice of appending signing statements to legislation making it clear that he reserves the right to ignore any laws he doesn't like. Lately, many Administration apologists have been yapping that Congress has no business involving itself in matters like oversight or Foreign Policy at all!
In fact, and as a reminder, Article I of the US Constitution makes it pretty clear that Congress is the branch of government that sets war policy. Among the powers of Congress:
To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;
To provide and maintain a Navy;
To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;
And if that is not clear enough, it also gives Congress the power,
To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.
---
Thanks, Russ. Only I feel the best refutation to Mansfield’s screed is to reiterate the key point. One that cuts past every bit of theoretics and returns to the fundamental pragmatism that underlies our Great Experiment in reciprocal accountability as a way of life.
“Again. How will you neocon shills feel, when your words of support for unaccountable presidential prerogative are hurled back in your face by some imperial prexy who you don’t like?
“Are you really such unimaginative boors that you cannot picture your worst nightmare -- some scarecrow caricature of Bill Clinton, perhaps -- saying “gee, thanks for all the nifty rationalizations” and then using it all against you?
“Or do you already have it worked out so that (you think) the pendulum swings of American politics will stop here, with your team on top? Forever?”
That last point...
...do they really think this?
... is the one that should keep us sleepless and worrying at night.
(Return to Part 1 of this series.)
EXAMPLE #4: A mind that is larger can still be deliberately ugly.
Want to read something infuriating? The court rationalizers have begun getting frantic. No longer able to defend recent power-grabs on the specifics, they are now reaching out for general philosophical justifications for Bushite consolidations of power. Moves that would have driven them into a fury, had Bill Clinton done the same - or far milder - things.
And now, they are even conjuring up John Locke - founder of the Western Political Enlightenment - by tossing carefully twisted slices of his work into a stewpot, along with Machiavelli, Aristotle and Plato, trying to use democracy’s greatest philosopher to justify their inherent and deeply cynical distrust of democracy:
Go ahead and give him a chance, before coming back to my reply.
Gosh, no wonder Rupert Murdoch wants to buy the WSJ. Let me get swiftly to my overall reaction to this pile of erudite drivel.
First: I must amend my earlier missive - “Invite Them Back” - which appraised the way that leftists helped to forge today’s rabid neocons by driving many of them off campus, into intellectual whoredom for the owners of the Heritage Foundation and other aristocratic-private “academies.” Clearly, Mansfield proves that not all of the neocon monsters were driven off-campus, after all. Some stayed put, protected by tenure and by a thick enough skin to withstand sniping jabs from the PC Police.
Second: Cutting through all the convoluted horse-hocky, Mansfield has one tendentious goal, to justify the elevation, above systems of routine legal accountability, a central authority figure who stands above and beyond the rule of law. Mansfield even says this, explicitly, on several occasions!
What fascinates me is pondering why he would even try to make such an argument, so flagrantly in opposition to the fundamentals of the American social contract. Mansfield’s pile of rationalizations, so convoluted and inane, will not convince a majority of Americans - even those who never heard of Locke - let alone the scholars to whom his words are superficially addressed. Evidently, Mansfield’s arguments are not meant to convince a majority, or his peers.
Rather, they appear aimed to achieve a more modest but crucially pragmatic aim - to help stanch the hemorrhage of neoconservatism patronage by educated people in every walk of American life. His aim is not to convince many, but to offer just enough ostrich conservatives a little temporary mantric cover. Propping up some crucial Reagan Republicans, helping them rationalize, so that they may to continue supporting the insupportable for a while longer.
Mansfield does this by nursing a current of patrician fear-of-the-masses, exactly as happened in 1932 Germany, when members of the old Junkers aristocracy talked themselves into backing another “strong executive.”
----
Oh, Mansfield makes some good micro-points, for example describing how the American Founders wanted an executive capable of applying “energy” to the enforcement of laws - a chief of state and government who is able to take urgent action, when matters are dire and time is short.
(See below, where I discuss the distinction between “emergency room operations” and “elective procedures... an almost perfect metaphor for when the commander-in-chief override power should - or should not - be applied.)
Yes, there are some valid points. But that is Mansfield’s job, as an eloquent shill, to mix five parts reasonable with three parts questionable and one part stark-jibbering-lying-insane. After all, a spoonful of sugary validity helps the cyanide go down.
You can’t believe a Harvard Professor would spew such things? Actually dissing the very notion of the rule of law? I must be exaggerating? Let me offer you a snippet passage:
”Now the rule of law has two defects, each of which suggests the need for one-man rule. The first is that law is always imperfect by being universal, thus an average solution even in the best case, that is inferior to the living intelligence of a wise man on the spot, who can judge particular circumstances. This defect is discussed by Aristotle in the well-known passage in his "Politics" where he considers "whether it is more advantageous to be ruled by the best man or the best laws."
“The other defect is that the law does not know how to make itself obeyed. Law assumes obedience, and as such seems oblivious to resistance to the law by the "governed," as if it were enough to require criminals to turn themselves in. No, the law must be "enforced," as we say. There must be police, and the rulers over the police must use energy (Alexander Hamilton's term) in addition to reason. It is a delusion to believe that governments can have energy without ever resorting to the use of force.
“The best source of energy turns out to be the same as the best source of reason--one man. One man, or, to use Machiavelli's expression, uno solo, will be the greatest source of energy if he regards it as necessary to maintaining his own rule. Such a person will have the greatest incentive to be watchful, and to be both cruel and merciful in correct contrast and proportion. We are talking about Machiavelli's prince, the man whom in apparently unguarded moments he called a tyrant.”
---
Where does one even begin, trying to answer stuff like this? By pointing out that Machiavelli was the neoconservative turncoat of his day? A once-event warrior for Florentine democracy, who only turned to flattering aristocrats and tyrants when it seemed that his beloved cause was lost? And - well - a guy’s got to earn a living?
Or reminding Mansfield what he well-knows, that the rule of law was established precisely because one-man rule has - historically - nearly always been an open invitation to outright disaster?
Or by asking him how is argument will stand up, when the towering authority figure up-high is someone from a faction he doesn’t like so much? One who doesn’t flatter him, or invite him to the right parties, or make policies that he cares for?
But I get ahead of myself. Russ Daggatt offers a clearcut rebuttal.
According to Bush, Congress doesn't have the power to condition its war funding on a directive to redeploy troops from Iraq. This is just a continuation of his practice of appending signing statements to legislation making it clear that he reserves the right to ignore any laws he doesn't like. Lately, many Administration apologists have been yapping that Congress has no business involving itself in matters like oversight or Foreign Policy at all!
In fact, and as a reminder, Article I of the US Constitution makes it pretty clear that Congress is the branch of government that sets war policy. Among the powers of Congress:
To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;
To provide and maintain a Navy;
To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;
And if that is not clear enough, it also gives Congress the power,
To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.
---
Thanks, Russ. Only I feel the best refutation to Mansfield’s screed is to reiterate the key point. One that cuts past every bit of theoretics and returns to the fundamental pragmatism that underlies our Great Experiment in reciprocal accountability as a way of life.
“Again. How will you neocon shills feel, when your words of support for unaccountable presidential prerogative are hurled back in your face by some imperial prexy who you don’t like?
“Are you really such unimaginative boors that you cannot picture your worst nightmare -- some scarecrow caricature of Bill Clinton, perhaps -- saying “gee, thanks for all the nifty rationalizations” and then using it all against you?
“Or do you already have it worked out so that (you think) the pendulum swings of American politics will stop here, with your team on top? Forever?”
That last point...
...do they really think this?
... is the one that should keep us sleepless and worrying at night.
(Return to Part 1 of this series.)
Thursday, May 10, 2007
A Discover Magazine Interview
Interrupting my series on "From The Sublime to the Ridiculous"...
...for a sideways veer into the handsome and sagacious!
The June 2007 issue of Discover Magazine features a four page spread and interview about yours truly - and my record as a prognosticator. My successes and failures at peering into the future. Despite a few awkward mis-transcriptions, they did a good job. I even look credibly penetrating!
See: David Brin Predicts the Future
Recognize any of the books on my table?
Oh... because they are changing their domain, DISCOVER is allowing free access to their site for a while! One of the best magazines, ever.
...for a sideways veer into the handsome and sagacious!
The June 2007 issue of Discover Magazine features a four page spread and interview about yours truly - and my record as a prognosticator. My successes and failures at peering into the future. Despite a few awkward mis-transcriptions, they did a good job. I even look credibly penetrating!
See: David Brin Predicts the Future
Recognize any of the books on my table?
Oh... because they are changing their domain, DISCOVER is allowing free access to their site for a while! One of the best magazines, ever.
Would you rather be living 100 years from now, when we’ll presumably have access to so many more answers?
Is it better to sow than to reap? Jonas Salk said our top job is to be “good ancestors.” If we in this era meet the challenges of our time, then our heirs may have powers that would seem godlike to us—the way we take for granted miracles like flying through the sky or witnessing events far across the globe. If those descendants do turn out to be better, wiser people than us, will they marvel that primitive beings managed so well, the same way we’re awed by the best of our ancestors? I hope so. It’s poignant consolation for not getting to be a demigod.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
From the Sublime to the Ridiculous... to the Just Plain Ugly... Part Three
EXAMPLE #3... THE HORRIFICALLY IRONIC AND HYPOCRITICAL.
Guess what irresponsible Defeatocrat made these statements:
"Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is."
and
“I think it’s also important for the president to lay out a timetable as to how long [our troops] will be involved and when they will be withdrawn.”
(Continued from Part 2) Yes, it was the man who stood before a “Mission Accomplished” sign aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, back in ‘03.
All right, he said these things a few years earlier. It was a different war and a different president. Bush made the comments quoted above during the brief campaign by NATO forces to expel Serbian forces from Kosovo and Bosnia, led by President Bill Clinton and Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark. Without the loss of a single US life, that ultimately brought about the downfall of Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic, who died last year while being tried for war crimes.
Using diametrically opposite doctrines that avoided every mistake of Vietnam (instead of repeating them all) Clinton-Clark respected and gathered allies, respected military professionals, respected civilian populations, while applying fierce but targeted force that accomplished every objective.
Toppling a brutal dictator,
Bringing peace to an entire region,
Bringing democracy to an entire region,
Increasing our influence in the world and even our popularity in muslim lands,
Without allowing our alliances to suffer...
...or our readiness...
...or our budget...
...or our social cohesion...
...or even losing a single American life...
...while bringing an end to tyranny on the European continent, for the first time in 4,000 years. One of the most significant foreign policy triumphs in all of history.
Indeed, then-candidate George W. Bush was RIGHT to speak of timetables and exit strategies, even for a campaign that accomplished so much, so quickly, at so little cost. (Go over that list of Balkans Campaign accomplishments and compare it to Iraq. Well, one out of ten ain’t...bad?)
A side note - Clinton-Clark applied the same military doctrines to the war plan for Afghanistan, a plan which was already on the shelves, ready to be taken down, when George W. Bush suddenly had to act, days after 9/11. Lacking time to say anything but “Go!” Bush had to unleash a scenario that had been crafted by professionals, in dispatching that quick-effective slash at the Taliban.
One need look no farther in order to explain the difference between stunning competence that we displayed in Afghanistan (at least the first couple of years) and our noxiously vile/incompetent adventure in Iraq, where outrageous graft and meddling by clueless politicians has shoved our military near the breaking point.
(Dems really should use phrases like “meddling in military affairs by clueless, draft-dodging politicians.” It slices through the hypocrisy of a generation of right wing jerks who used exactly that phrase to explain the loss of Vietnam.)
Oh, about that brazen bragging, back in 2003 -- aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln? Let me quote Russ Daggatt, for concise and sharp gutting:
As you may recall, when the "Mission Accomplished" banner later proved to be an embarrassment, Bush tried to blame it on the ship's crew, claiming that the White House had nothing to do with it.
At a news conference on October 28, 2003, Bush said that the sign, "of course, was put up by the members of the USS Lincoln, saying that their mission was accomplished. I know it was attributed some how to some ingenious advance man from my staff -- they weren't that ingenious, by the way."
Later, the White House admitted that, in fact, they had the banner made up for the occasion. Typical of Bush to lie, evade responsibility and use those serving in the military as mere props to serve his own political agenda.]
Oh, when the sign was raised, we had lost 139 people in Iraq. On May1, 2007 the figure was 3,351.
“Accomplished.” Oh, yes, these guys - (the same ones who coddled Saddam for twenty years, then slapped his wrist in 1991) - have a right to preach about “judgement” and competence to “command.”
----
And now a self-serving but called-for query to you all.
Was I not the first person you heard raise this issue? That the Bushites are destroying US military readiness, waging all out war against the professional officer corps, and hollowing out our nation’s resiliency in challenging times? (Hint: I’ve been saying it since early 2004.)
Well, even worse has been the plight of the corps of non-commissioned officers... the sergeants etc who keep everything working.
Washington - Thousands more mid level enlisted soldiers are leaving the Army than in each of the past two years, forcing the service to increase its use of pay-to-stay programs and find other ways to keep GIs in the fold.
Four years into the fight in Iraq, the Army continues to be successful in retaining enough soldiers overall – "a miracle" to some observers, because the war has lasted so long, though at cost of increased bonuses and other inducements. But that success masks a growing problem within the ranks: Fewer mid-grade sergeants are opting to stay in the Army as many face yet another deployment to Iraq – and, more important, Army officials say, less time at home.
While a reenlistment shortfall in any Army group is cause for concern, many consider the declining rate among mid-grade sergeants to be a sign of potential bigger reenlistment problems for the Army down the line. In addition, the fact that more mid-level soldiers are leaving could have a long-term impact on the Army's ability to grow future leaders.
Why, oh why, are the dems to stupid to recognize this as an issue? THE issue?
The war being waged by a clan of super-empowered, spoiled brat amateurs, against professionalism of all kinds, at all levels - including the civil service and intelligence community and law enforcement, as well as the much beleaguered United States Officer Corps.
==Continue to Part 4
Guess what irresponsible Defeatocrat made these statements:
"Victory means exit strategy, and it’s important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is."
and
“I think it’s also important for the president to lay out a timetable as to how long [our troops] will be involved and when they will be withdrawn.”
(Continued from Part 2) Yes, it was the man who stood before a “Mission Accomplished” sign aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, back in ‘03.
All right, he said these things a few years earlier. It was a different war and a different president. Bush made the comments quoted above during the brief campaign by NATO forces to expel Serbian forces from Kosovo and Bosnia, led by President Bill Clinton and Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark. Without the loss of a single US life, that ultimately brought about the downfall of Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic, who died last year while being tried for war crimes.
Using diametrically opposite doctrines that avoided every mistake of Vietnam (instead of repeating them all) Clinton-Clark respected and gathered allies, respected military professionals, respected civilian populations, while applying fierce but targeted force that accomplished every objective.
Toppling a brutal dictator,
Bringing peace to an entire region,
Bringing democracy to an entire region,
Increasing our influence in the world and even our popularity in muslim lands,
Without allowing our alliances to suffer...
...or our readiness...
...or our budget...
...or our social cohesion...
...or even losing a single American life...
...while bringing an end to tyranny on the European continent, for the first time in 4,000 years. One of the most significant foreign policy triumphs in all of history.
Indeed, then-candidate George W. Bush was RIGHT to speak of timetables and exit strategies, even for a campaign that accomplished so much, so quickly, at so little cost. (Go over that list of Balkans Campaign accomplishments and compare it to Iraq. Well, one out of ten ain’t...bad?)
A side note - Clinton-Clark applied the same military doctrines to the war plan for Afghanistan, a plan which was already on the shelves, ready to be taken down, when George W. Bush suddenly had to act, days after 9/11. Lacking time to say anything but “Go!” Bush had to unleash a scenario that had been crafted by professionals, in dispatching that quick-effective slash at the Taliban.
One need look no farther in order to explain the difference between stunning competence that we displayed in Afghanistan (at least the first couple of years) and our noxiously vile/incompetent adventure in Iraq, where outrageous graft and meddling by clueless politicians has shoved our military near the breaking point.
(Dems really should use phrases like “meddling in military affairs by clueless, draft-dodging politicians.” It slices through the hypocrisy of a generation of right wing jerks who used exactly that phrase to explain the loss of Vietnam.)
Oh, about that brazen bragging, back in 2003 -- aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln? Let me quote Russ Daggatt, for concise and sharp gutting:
As you may recall, when the "Mission Accomplished" banner later proved to be an embarrassment, Bush tried to blame it on the ship's crew, claiming that the White House had nothing to do with it.
At a news conference on October 28, 2003, Bush said that the sign, "of course, was put up by the members of the USS Lincoln, saying that their mission was accomplished. I know it was attributed some how to some ingenious advance man from my staff -- they weren't that ingenious, by the way."
Later, the White House admitted that, in fact, they had the banner made up for the occasion. Typical of Bush to lie, evade responsibility and use those serving in the military as mere props to serve his own political agenda.]
Oh, when the sign was raised, we had lost 139 people in Iraq. On May1, 2007 the figure was 3,351.
“Accomplished.” Oh, yes, these guys - (the same ones who coddled Saddam for twenty years, then slapped his wrist in 1991) - have a right to preach about “judgement” and competence to “command.”
----
And now a self-serving but called-for query to you all.
Was I not the first person you heard raise this issue? That the Bushites are destroying US military readiness, waging all out war against the professional officer corps, and hollowing out our nation’s resiliency in challenging times? (Hint: I’ve been saying it since early 2004.)
Well, even worse has been the plight of the corps of non-commissioned officers... the sergeants etc who keep everything working.
Washington - Thousands more mid level enlisted soldiers are leaving the Army than in each of the past two years, forcing the service to increase its use of pay-to-stay programs and find other ways to keep GIs in the fold.
Four years into the fight in Iraq, the Army continues to be successful in retaining enough soldiers overall – "a miracle" to some observers, because the war has lasted so long, though at cost of increased bonuses and other inducements. But that success masks a growing problem within the ranks: Fewer mid-grade sergeants are opting to stay in the Army as many face yet another deployment to Iraq – and, more important, Army officials say, less time at home.
While a reenlistment shortfall in any Army group is cause for concern, many consider the declining rate among mid-grade sergeants to be a sign of potential bigger reenlistment problems for the Army down the line. In addition, the fact that more mid-level soldiers are leaving could have a long-term impact on the Army's ability to grow future leaders.
Why, oh why, are the dems to stupid to recognize this as an issue? THE issue?
The war being waged by a clan of super-empowered, spoiled brat amateurs, against professionalism of all kinds, at all levels - including the civil service and intelligence community and law enforcement, as well as the much beleaguered United States Officer Corps.
==Continue to Part 4
Sunday, May 06, 2007
From the Sublime to the Ridiculous... to the Just Plain Ugly... Part Two
We’ve begun a brief series that will take us on a tour illustrating the vast range and diversity of human nature... and governance.
EXAMPLE #2... THE ROLE MODEL
An administration-appointed independent commission reports that the country's leader rushed into a war without considering alternatives to full-scale conflict. He set unattainable goals, failed to adequately assess the military's readiness for the task, and did not have a clear exit strategy. "All of these add up to a serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and caution," said the leader of the commission.
As a result of the report, it is virtually certain that the country's leader -- already low in the polls -- will be forced to resign.
Of course, that last sentence is a tip-off that we aren't talking about President Bush and the Iraq war. (despite record low approval ratings that have fallen to 28%.) Rather, these were the conclusions of the Winograd Commission in Israel with regard to prime minister Olmert's performance in last summer's war with Hezbollah.Isn't democracy and accountability a wonderful thing? I wonder if we can borrow the Winograd Commission for a little while. (R. Daggatt source.)
And now The Decider has become The Commander Guy as Bush enters his "Nixon-talking-to-pictures-on-the-White-House-walls" phase.
As Eugene Robinson wrote in the Washington Post this week: Is George W. Bush even trying to make sense anymore?
On Wednesday, speaking to the Associated General Contractors of America, Bush gave himself a new nickname. Responding to a question from the audience, he asked rhetorically whether "the Congress or the commanders" should decide how many U.S. troops are needed in Iraq. “And as you know," he went on, "my position is clear -- I'm the Commander Guy." ...
The last six years are rife with episodes that, had Bill Clinton done it, would have been splashed across the cable news tabloids. Like when Bush welcomed the first blind summiter of Mt. Everest to the Oval Office and - instead of asking a single question relevant to the sightless hero’s accomplishment, proceeded to ramble about the colors of various artworks and furnishings, apparently forgetting that his guest was blind! (Not the only time he’s done that exact thing.)
As Daggatt says: “What I find astounding is that the right-wing has chosen this president as the vehicle through which to push their notions of authoritarian government to their most radical lengths. Throughout the history of government there have been arguments about the merits of a strongman running the show versus representative government and the rule of law. But the advocates of the former often assume some kind of enlightened philosopher king up against the irresponsible rabble. It seems pretty hard to make the case that an obviously-incompetent, incurious ideologue should be given unchecked powers.”
Do you need any further proof that the Ostriches are seriously in hysterical denial, seldom asking themselves “what would I have done (or what will I do after 09) - if this same thing were done by a Clinton?”
Like openly declaring that the president and his men have the intrinsic power to throw American citizens seized on US soil in prison indefinitely with no charges, no counsel and no judicial review.
==Continue to Part 3
EXAMPLE #2... THE ROLE MODEL
An administration-appointed independent commission reports that the country's leader rushed into a war without considering alternatives to full-scale conflict. He set unattainable goals, failed to adequately assess the military's readiness for the task, and did not have a clear exit strategy. "All of these add up to a serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and caution," said the leader of the commission.
As a result of the report, it is virtually certain that the country's leader -- already low in the polls -- will be forced to resign.
Of course, that last sentence is a tip-off that we aren't talking about President Bush and the Iraq war. (despite record low approval ratings that have fallen to 28%.) Rather, these were the conclusions of the Winograd Commission in Israel with regard to prime minister Olmert's performance in last summer's war with Hezbollah.Isn't democracy and accountability a wonderful thing? I wonder if we can borrow the Winograd Commission for a little while. (R. Daggatt source.)
And now The Decider has become The Commander Guy as Bush enters his "Nixon-talking-to-pictures-on-the-White-House-walls" phase.
As Eugene Robinson wrote in the Washington Post this week: Is George W. Bush even trying to make sense anymore?
On Wednesday, speaking to the Associated General Contractors of America, Bush gave himself a new nickname. Responding to a question from the audience, he asked rhetorically whether "the Congress or the commanders" should decide how many U.S. troops are needed in Iraq. “And as you know," he went on, "my position is clear -- I'm the Commander Guy." ...
The last six years are rife with episodes that, had Bill Clinton done it, would have been splashed across the cable news tabloids. Like when Bush welcomed the first blind summiter of Mt. Everest to the Oval Office and - instead of asking a single question relevant to the sightless hero’s accomplishment, proceeded to ramble about the colors of various artworks and furnishings, apparently forgetting that his guest was blind! (Not the only time he’s done that exact thing.)
As Daggatt says: “What I find astounding is that the right-wing has chosen this president as the vehicle through which to push their notions of authoritarian government to their most radical lengths. Throughout the history of government there have been arguments about the merits of a strongman running the show versus representative government and the rule of law. But the advocates of the former often assume some kind of enlightened philosopher king up against the irresponsible rabble. It seems pretty hard to make the case that an obviously-incompetent, incurious ideologue should be given unchecked powers.”
Do you need any further proof that the Ostriches are seriously in hysterical denial, seldom asking themselves “what would I have done (or what will I do after 09) - if this same thing were done by a Clinton?”
Like openly declaring that the president and his men have the intrinsic power to throw American citizens seized on US soil in prison indefinitely with no charges, no counsel and no judicial review.
==Continue to Part 3
Saturday, May 05, 2007
From The Sublime to the Ridiculous... to the Just Plain Ugly... Part One
I have several important extracts to share with you, across the next few postings (which are coming to you amid a big kitchen remodel and various other major distractions.)
I am linking theme in a series because they illustrate... in a kind of The Good, The Bad And The Ugly sort of way... the range of inspiration and leadership that we can find, if we only look around and open our eyes.
The first of these excerpts is cogent, brilliant, concise and brave. The second could serve as a perfect type-exemplar of utter hypocrisy, simultaneously laughable and terrifying. The final passage is taken from a recent work of scholastic erudition that aims to rationalize and justify today’s real war. Not the “war” on terrorism or in Iraq, but the ruthless offensive that is being waged against the Enlightenment and the rule of law, by a new class of would-be feudal lords.
---
Let’s start at the high end with a courageous fellow who is clearly a friend of civilization. I have already cited a recent article, published in the Armed Forces Journal: http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2007/05/2635198 “A failure in generalship” by Lt. Col. Paul Yingling, a young officer who had been considered a sure bet to make general himself, someday, until taking the bold (some would say suicidal) step of publicly criticizing the Army’s entire upper echelon.
Indeed, Yingling appears to typify everything I have said about today’s U. S. Officer Corps. (Indeed, he even uses that term in his article (see below), proving that I have not made it up during the last three years I bandied it around.) Committed, professional and self-disciplined, this corps of commissioned public servants is -- among other sterling traits -- the third best-educated clade in modern American life - just after college professors and medical doctors.
That, alone, does not guarantee courage or sagacity, of course. (As we will see in our third and last extract.) Indeed, it has taken far too long for members of the officer corps to overcome their emotional fealty to superficial emblems of crewcut conservatism and come around to realizing how thoroughly they - and the nation - have been had. Betrayed by the spiraling and accelerating madness on America’s far-right.
(As I have pointed out frequently, the insulting behavior of the far-left shares some of the blame. refusing to reach out and embrace our nation’s protectors, or at least talk to them. Is it possible to even calculate the stupidity of a movement that would hand its neoconservative foes whole swathes of influential and important American citizenry, gratis, without even trying to engage and persuade? Or to create a Big Tent that welcomes, instead of helping Karl Rove maintain his?
(Still the betrayal of the far-right is far worse. Professionalism is treated like dirt, careers spoiled and wasted, and the Constitution that these men and women have sworn to defend is trampled. There are no greater victims than our service personnel.)
I stand by what I have said since 2004. Though they have been slow to wake up, these volunteer soldiers are what they have always been -- the thin blue line that stands between the rest of us and a very cold wind. They are the guarantors of our Great Experiment. Even when we criticize the Officer Corps, it should be in tones of respect and perhaps a little awe toward men and women who grasp the word “dedication” better than you and I ever will.
But enough of my own quirky ranting. Here’s an excerpt from Yingling’s document.
”For the second time in a generation, the United States faces the prospect of defeat at the hands of an insurgency. In April 1975, the U.S. fled the Republic of Vietnam, abandoning our allies to their fate at the hands of North Vietnamese communists. In 2007, Iraq's grave and deteriorating condition offers diminishing hope for an American victory and portends risk of an even wider and more destructive regional war.
“These debacles are not attributable to individual failures, but rather to a crisis in an entire institution: America's general officer corps. America's generals have failed to prepare our armed forces for war and advise civilian authorities on the application of force to achieve the aims of policy. The argument that follows consists of three elements. First, generals have a responsibility to society to provide policymakers with a correct estimate of strategic probabilities. Second, America's generals in Vietnam and Iraq failed to perform this responsibility. Third, remedying the crisis in American generalship requires the intervention of Congress.”
If Yingling is any kind of example, the corps may at last be waking up. To the fact that our national leadership has stupidly (or perhaps deliberately?) plunged America into a checklist repetition of every horrid mistake we made in Vietnam.
A few commentators have suggested that Yingling’s article be read NOT as an indictment of generals, but as a slightly disguised attack upon the Bush Administration. Read it yourself and ponder: when he faults generals for failing to successfully advise policy makers in the probabilities of successful outcome, could that not also be taken to mean that policy makers ought to take the dogma plugs out of their ears and actually listen?
Likewise, when he speaks of Von Clauswitz’s famed advice that a nation should have “passion” commensurate with the sacrifices needed in a war, could he not only be criticizing contemporary America in general, for spending is soldiers without sacrificing at home?
”Popular passions are necessary for the successful prosecution of war, but cannot be sufficient. To prevail, generals must provide policymakers and the public with a correct estimation of strategic probabilities. The general is responsible for estimating the likelihood of success in applying force to achieve the aims of policy. The general describes both the means necessary for the successful prosecution of war and the ways in which the nation will employ those means. If the policymaker desires ends for which the means he provides are insufficient, the general is responsible for advising the statesman of this incongruence. The statesman must then scale back the ends of policy or mobilize popular passions to provide greater means. If the general remains silent while the statesman commits a nation to war with insufficient means, he shares culpability for the results.”
When he speaks of insufficient commitment of resources, might Lt. Colonel Yingling be referring obliquely to the greed exhibited by our top 1%? An American aristocracy who, for all their past faults, always used to step forward to help pay for emergencies in bygone days. But who now - while beating drums of “war” - seem to care above all for their lavish tax cuts. Some crisis.
You have to read between the lines, of course. Superficially, Yingling has done something that might blight a young officer’s career - criticizing the entire class of general officers. And yet, this may not be quite as suicidal as it seems, if in this case he had a nod and a wink from several top commanders. If they are true heirs of George Marshall, they would know that the Colonel’s bullets are actually aimed PAST them, at higher targets.
Wherever he accuses generals of failing to “give good advice,” you can easily infer the reverse side of the coin that Lt. Col Yingling cannot legally mention aloud. That good advice is useless if the policy makers are deaf, dumb, blind, obstinate and/or cosmically stupid.
Read the article yourself. It is important. Especially for “ostrich conservatives” who are still floundering about, grabbing at every possible rationalization and excuse to stay loyal to a GOP that has long ago mutated into something quite unworthy to command.
----
*(Uncivilized, for sure. Unsapient, perhaps. Indeed, judging by its owners' vampiric qualities... undead.)
==Continue to Part 2
I am linking theme in a series because they illustrate... in a kind of The Good, The Bad And The Ugly sort of way... the range of inspiration and leadership that we can find, if we only look around and open our eyes.
The first of these excerpts is cogent, brilliant, concise and brave. The second could serve as a perfect type-exemplar of utter hypocrisy, simultaneously laughable and terrifying. The final passage is taken from a recent work of scholastic erudition that aims to rationalize and justify today’s real war. Not the “war” on terrorism or in Iraq, but the ruthless offensive that is being waged against the Enlightenment and the rule of law, by a new class of would-be feudal lords.
---
Let’s start at the high end with a courageous fellow who is clearly a friend of civilization. I have already cited a recent article, published in the Armed Forces Journal: http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2007/05/2635198 “A failure in generalship” by Lt. Col. Paul Yingling, a young officer who had been considered a sure bet to make general himself, someday, until taking the bold (some would say suicidal) step of publicly criticizing the Army’s entire upper echelon.
Indeed, Yingling appears to typify everything I have said about today’s U. S. Officer Corps. (Indeed, he even uses that term in his article (see below), proving that I have not made it up during the last three years I bandied it around.) Committed, professional and self-disciplined, this corps of commissioned public servants is -- among other sterling traits -- the third best-educated clade in modern American life - just after college professors and medical doctors.
That, alone, does not guarantee courage or sagacity, of course. (As we will see in our third and last extract.) Indeed, it has taken far too long for members of the officer corps to overcome their emotional fealty to superficial emblems of crewcut conservatism and come around to realizing how thoroughly they - and the nation - have been had. Betrayed by the spiraling and accelerating madness on America’s far-right.
(As I have pointed out frequently, the insulting behavior of the far-left shares some of the blame. refusing to reach out and embrace our nation’s protectors, or at least talk to them. Is it possible to even calculate the stupidity of a movement that would hand its neoconservative foes whole swathes of influential and important American citizenry, gratis, without even trying to engage and persuade? Or to create a Big Tent that welcomes, instead of helping Karl Rove maintain his?
(Still the betrayal of the far-right is far worse. Professionalism is treated like dirt, careers spoiled and wasted, and the Constitution that these men and women have sworn to defend is trampled. There are no greater victims than our service personnel.)
I stand by what I have said since 2004. Though they have been slow to wake up, these volunteer soldiers are what they have always been -- the thin blue line that stands between the rest of us and a very cold wind. They are the guarantors of our Great Experiment. Even when we criticize the Officer Corps, it should be in tones of respect and perhaps a little awe toward men and women who grasp the word “dedication” better than you and I ever will.
But enough of my own quirky ranting. Here’s an excerpt from Yingling’s document.
”For the second time in a generation, the United States faces the prospect of defeat at the hands of an insurgency. In April 1975, the U.S. fled the Republic of Vietnam, abandoning our allies to their fate at the hands of North Vietnamese communists. In 2007, Iraq's grave and deteriorating condition offers diminishing hope for an American victory and portends risk of an even wider and more destructive regional war.
“These debacles are not attributable to individual failures, but rather to a crisis in an entire institution: America's general officer corps. America's generals have failed to prepare our armed forces for war and advise civilian authorities on the application of force to achieve the aims of policy. The argument that follows consists of three elements. First, generals have a responsibility to society to provide policymakers with a correct estimate of strategic probabilities. Second, America's generals in Vietnam and Iraq failed to perform this responsibility. Third, remedying the crisis in American generalship requires the intervention of Congress.”
If Yingling is any kind of example, the corps may at last be waking up. To the fact that our national leadership has stupidly (or perhaps deliberately?) plunged America into a checklist repetition of every horrid mistake we made in Vietnam.
A few commentators have suggested that Yingling’s article be read NOT as an indictment of generals, but as a slightly disguised attack upon the Bush Administration. Read it yourself and ponder: when he faults generals for failing to successfully advise policy makers in the probabilities of successful outcome, could that not also be taken to mean that policy makers ought to take the dogma plugs out of their ears and actually listen?
Likewise, when he speaks of Von Clauswitz’s famed advice that a nation should have “passion” commensurate with the sacrifices needed in a war, could he not only be criticizing contemporary America in general, for spending is soldiers without sacrificing at home?
”Popular passions are necessary for the successful prosecution of war, but cannot be sufficient. To prevail, generals must provide policymakers and the public with a correct estimation of strategic probabilities. The general is responsible for estimating the likelihood of success in applying force to achieve the aims of policy. The general describes both the means necessary for the successful prosecution of war and the ways in which the nation will employ those means. If the policymaker desires ends for which the means he provides are insufficient, the general is responsible for advising the statesman of this incongruence. The statesman must then scale back the ends of policy or mobilize popular passions to provide greater means. If the general remains silent while the statesman commits a nation to war with insufficient means, he shares culpability for the results.”
When he speaks of insufficient commitment of resources, might Lt. Colonel Yingling be referring obliquely to the greed exhibited by our top 1%? An American aristocracy who, for all their past faults, always used to step forward to help pay for emergencies in bygone days. But who now - while beating drums of “war” - seem to care above all for their lavish tax cuts. Some crisis.
You have to read between the lines, of course. Superficially, Yingling has done something that might blight a young officer’s career - criticizing the entire class of general officers. And yet, this may not be quite as suicidal as it seems, if in this case he had a nod and a wink from several top commanders. If they are true heirs of George Marshall, they would know that the Colonel’s bullets are actually aimed PAST them, at higher targets.
Wherever he accuses generals of failing to “give good advice,” you can easily infer the reverse side of the coin that Lt. Col Yingling cannot legally mention aloud. That good advice is useless if the policy makers are deaf, dumb, blind, obstinate and/or cosmically stupid.
Read the article yourself. It is important. Especially for “ostrich conservatives” who are still floundering about, grabbing at every possible rationalization and excuse to stay loyal to a GOP that has long ago mutated into something quite unworthy to command.
----
*(Uncivilized, for sure. Unsapient, perhaps. Indeed, judging by its owners' vampiric qualities... undead.)
==Continue to Part 2
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