Sci Fi Futures, here and now

Okay it's official.  I am author Guest of Honor at Westercon 2020 in Seattle, alongside other fabulous guests and even more fabulous readers, watchers and fans of far futures and farther-out ideas. So sign up for great 2020 visions -- And fight for an optimistic and confident civilization!

And hoping to see many of you at the World Science Fiction Convention in San Jose, California (Silicon Valley) in August.

Hong Kong journalist Paul Kay interviews me in the (Hong Kong) South China Post, covering the gamut, from history and evolution to the future and science fiction's role in exploring the phenomenon of change. And while we're in the region...

My colleague Hao Jingfeng – author of the Hugo-winning story “Folding Beijing” – talks about cyber systems that might enable future cities to synergize, like living organisms. 

And Chinese SF scholar Wu Yan joined a passel of U.S. mavens, actors and futurists on a panel at Comicon International, celebrating the release of a 4K version of “2001: A Space Odyssey” by Warner Bros, honoring the film classic’s 50^th Anniversary. Note Gary Lockwood and Keir Dullea on the far left… “Frank and Dave.”

Panel moderated by Dr. Erik Viirre, of UCSD's Arthur C. Clarke Center for Human Imagination, where the sciences and arts come together to explore humanity's most unique gift.  Home of the TASAT Project - There's A Story About That!

== Depletion of a precious commodity: our World Rascal Resource ==

Jason Sheehan gives a terrific and open-eyed eulogy to our irreplaceable rascal, Harlan Ellison. Harlan was wickedly witty, profanely-provocative, yet generous to a fault. His penchant for brilliantly skewering all authority – including the bossy voices in our own heads --would have got him strangled in any other human civilization, yet in this one he lived – honored - to 84... decades longer than he swore he would, much to our benefit with startling, rambunctious stories that will echo for ages.

Hence, I list Harlan Ellison -- along with John Perry Barlow and others -- as among the most-American beings I knew. Most-Californian. Heck, like Ray Bradbury, Harlan was among the most-Angelino, and most alien-ready of humans. And indeed, perhaps he was beamed-up, to confront and shake and amuse and offend those out there who most deeply need it.

Solace to Susan, and to all who love disturbances in the force. (There’ll be others.) One regret? Harlan should have held out till Shatterday.

== Sci Fi Miscellany ==

Such a lovely article about the chummy roast-flame war between colleagues Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov.

The fascinating and odd intersection of Science Fiction, popular culture and Rock ’n Roll in the late 60s and 70s is explored in the newly released book: Strange Stars: David Bowie, Pop Music, and the Decade Sci-Fi exploded, by Jason Heller, writer for Rolling Stone and the New Yorker.

Predicting the future: Here’s a seriously excellent and insightful podcast video by Simon Whistler on YouTube presenting a top ten list of novels that eerily and correctly predicted aspects of the future.  Books like Infinite Jest, Vonnegut’s Player Piano, Neuromancer and - counter-intuitively - Childhood’s End,  

Many of the on-targets have to do with creepy prescience about our, well, weird present-day politics, and on that note I would have added certain Heinleins. 

And yes, since you ask. Toward the very top of the list, I am just barely outranked by three heavyweights: H.G. Wells, Aldous Huxley and… John Brunner for Stand on Zanzibar, a choice that won this fellow serious props and cred, in my book! 

All told a riveting and excellent podcast.

== And more SF news ==

We liked the film A Quiet Place, very much. Emily Blunt is outrageously good.

In contrast, the new Lost In Space series, which started with some cool creativity, had one of the worst episodes (number 4) I have ever seen, in which not one of the characters makes even a single decision that makes even a scintilla of sense. A great example of how one director and writer can come close to killing a whole project. 

DOWNSIZING is a very weird movie that has many positive traits. For example, it is rare to see an sf'nal extrapolation of a new technology that is portrayed being used the way techs are actually used, in the real world... by everybody, instead of monopolized by conspirators or the rich. Many refreshing things... and some weird logic and bizarre/sudden turns in unexpected directions. Definitely more of an art film than you'd expect. And thought provoking, if weird.

ZION’S FICTION (or “Zi-Fi”) is the first authoritative volume  of Israeli fantastic literature. Showcasing a Foreword by Robert Silverberg, the book offers stories originally crafted in Hebrew, Russian and English by a gallery of genre-savvy Israeli writers. To be released in September, available for pre-order.

The mighty and charismatic science fiction author Cat Rambo has a new book in her “Tabat” sci-fantasy series. Check it out!                                                                                                   

A cute rumination about super-villains, by Talin.

A vivid tech thriller that delves into mathematics, cyberwarfare and terrorism, try Matt Ginsberg's new novel - Factor Man.

The solution to the Apocalypse - from SMBC Comics.

Just released, in commemoration of Sir Arthur Clarke: 2001: An Odyssey in Words: Celebrating the Centenary of Arthur C. Clarke's Birth: an anthology of speculative fiction stories, each 2001 words in length, by Bruce Sterling, Emma Newman, Adrian Tchaikovsky, Chris Beckett, Alastair Reynolds - as well as essays by Neil Gaiman and China Mieville. 

A new Magazine - Martian - wants drabbles! Exact, super-short stories of 100 words. I like the 250 word length. I try to put one of those in each of my collections. WIRED ran a contest for 6-word tales. (I won ;-) And there's the "One Page Screenplay Contest in LA. (Won that too.)  Is this a sign we’ve fully entered the Twitter era?  Wasn’t there a “Short Attention Span Theater” that -- 

-- oh, look, squirrel!

Predicting the Future... a Touchy Business

We authors of “speculative” fiction like to say we don’t predict the future.  We peer ahead and find possibilities... plausibilities... to then write up as conjectures.  As exercises to help stretch and practice the reader’s pre-frontal lobes. Sure, we sometimes build a good record of “hits.”
But that’s not the core point.

As I often tell clients in government and business, the key thing is to find the ways that your forecasts have been consistently wrong... and to figure out why.  After all, the best definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, while expecting different results.

This came very much to mind as the frenzied news of recent weeks reminded me of 1968 - a year so eventful that we all reached its end in a state of utter exhaustion. Amid all the news of war and quakes and natural and man-made disaster, several authors have pointed at one of the oldest and nastiest cliches, expounded by smug pundits and cynics and hollywood directors for ages. Predictions are made about every disaster -- that once the lid of a tightly policed civilization is knocked off for a second, humans will become beasts.

In fact, the opposite is far more generally the case. The vast majority of people, when a disaster hits, behave in the aftermath as altruists. They organize spontaneously to save their fellow human beings, to share what they have, and to show kindness. They reveal themselves to be better people than they ever expected. A point that is made especially well by one of my favorite nonfiction authors, Rebecca Solnit, in her book A PARADISE MADE IN HELL.

In fact, I have been saying this for decades, expressing an ongoing theme about the 21st Century’s struggle to empower citizens, after the 20th Century's relentless trend toward the "professionalization of everything."  One overlooked aspect of the 9/11 tragedy was that citizens themselves were most effective in our civilization's defense, reacting with resiliency and initiative while armed with new technologies:

Now a large project is taking shape to improve forecasting. It involves thousands of volunteers and the wisdom of crowds. It’s officially known as the Forecasting World Events Project and is sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Activity (IARPA). The idea is to raise five large competing teams of people of diverse backgrounds who will be asked to make predictions on fields that range from politics and global security to business and economics, public health, social and cultural change and science and technology. The project is expected to run for four years and stems from the recognition that expert forecasts are very often wrong.

Now, mind you, I approve of this general idea and endeavor.  Still, one looks back across earlier “crowd-sourced wisdom” efforts, like the “delphi” polls of the 1960s, and it’s clear that we are still stumbling around.  My own general take on the topic of prediction takes a very broad view, spanning centuries. (For a less abstract, preening approach, see a wiki that has been set up by some meticulous fans, attempting to track my own near future forecasts.)


== SOME CLEVER SPECULATIONS ==

A new series in Scientific American asks science luminaries to "describe a hard problem that may be impossible - or almost impossible - to investigate." The initial essay deals with printing human organs. Some time later, my own contribution will be about (you guessed it) uplifting higher animals to sapience.

But heck, as long as were on the subject, though, here’s another “almost impossible problem" that I ruminated about. The most cosmic -- even meta-cosmic -- question that we can grapple with is: "Are we currently living in a simulation?

 It is the biggest simply because everything we consider to be "the universe" - and even its possible participation in some larger "context" of multiple cosmos - might be contrived and presented to us in an ersatz experience.

Of course, this is an old quandary, going back to Plato's allegory of the cave or the Chinese tale of the Emperor and the butterfly.  In our case, the "dream" or "illusion" may be something tangible - a super extrapolation of our own technology. Are we being just as naive and clueless now?

Several suggestions have been made, regarding experiments or observations that might reveal whether the larger context of our universe is a simulation. One of these is already known... the discrete division of nature into "quanta" that cannot be further divided. Also, the tendency of quantum mechanics to deal in probabilities, without having to calculate position and momentum to infinite precision.

These two traits of our universe are spectacularly convenient, if it happens to be a simulation.  They limit the amount of computing power required in order to drive our simulated world forward.  A fact that one might deem very creepy. (As if quantum mechanics weren't creepy enough!)

Would it be dangerous to explore this hypothesis further? Consider that it may displease the owners of the simulation, to have their subjects aware that they are in an experiment, and possibly biasing their decisions because of that, or even interfering!  Perhaps even thereupon speaking up and demanding rights?

I explored all of this in an award-winning short story: "Stones of Significance."

Um, in fact, I have just been told that I had better stop talking about this.  The owner has his finger on the REBOOT button....

(Till then... keep making conjectures!)


== ANNOUNCEMENTS! ==

Did some of you have trouble ordering e-book copies of The Transparent Society overseas? It now looks as if folks in the UK can order it on Kindle, so I think it’s been released throughout the world.  Would some of you folks in Asia/Australia/Europe please check and report back?  Thanks.

My friend and collaborator Jeff Carlson (http://www.jverse.com) has republished the best of his award-winning short fiction on Kindle and Nook in 99 cent mini-collections including "The Frozen Sky," an alien encounter set beneath the ice of Jupiter's sixth moon, Europa.  You can find cover art, blurbs, free excerpts. Try out this bright talent!

University exchange programs with aliens! (April fool.)

At once looking a bit silly -- and showing some pizzazz - the trailer for the Captain America movie has been released. First, I always prefer it when the hero rises from brave everyman status (as in Spiderman or Cat. America) or through cleverness with tech (Batman/Ironman) than from mutants or magic or by some alien invading the Earth as a baby.  Which is why I root for ol' Cap'n over THOR! With both movies coming soon, remember the title of my Hugo-nominated story "Thor Meets Captain America!"  (And see how much better I dealt with both characters in the expanded graphic novel -- THE LIFE EATERS.


== SOME SCIENCE SNIPPETS RELEVANT TO POLICY...==

*This is actually pretty big news. * See an excellent and dispassionate survey of the most recent re-appraisal of rates of average climate warming (without examining the cause.) You’ll get a better picture of the players in the controversy and  how (gradually) science is starting to eliminate the skeptics’ concerns.

Interesting, slightly-creepy technical discussions of implanted RFID tags letting the researcher enter his house/car and control his environment with waves of the hand. The beginnings of Harry Potter style incantation! Plus discussion of security/hacking dilemmas. Loved the “Faraday-Cage pants!”

Also a panel discussion on “Uberveillance.”

Analyzing percentages of deaths by kilowatt hour. Nuclear far down the list. Even after Fukushima. We need to learn, improve, innovate and not lose our heads. 

See a fantastically effective chart portraying the various thresholds and doses and known effects from exposure to ionizing radiation.  Sets a lot of things (including Anne Coulter's loony notion of immunizing hormesis of low doses being "good for you") in perspective. (One small observation. Don’t go into a profession requiring you to fly from Ny to LA every week!) http://xkcd.com/radiation/


== AND SOME MORE SCIENCE THAT’S JUST COOL ==

Eyes on the Solar System" is a 3-D environment full of real NASA mission data. Explore the cosmos from your computer. Hop on an asteroid. Fly with NASA's Voyager 2 spacecraft. See the entire solar system moving in real time. It's up to you. You control space and time!

Alert to all you hard sci fi writers. To Search for Intelligent ETs -- Signs of Mining Asteroid Belts may be visible from Earth. Any technologically advanced civilization will require resources, which may become depleted on their home planet. Large scale mining may be detectable by analyzing the thermal and chemical signatures from dust debris  -- though such signs may be hard to distinguish from collisions and natural erosion. (I used to do research in this field. Knew it all along! ;-)

Electric wands could allow future firefighters to extinguish flames with a wave of the hand, recent experiments suggest.

After a 6 year journey, 15 loops around the sun and three flybys of Mercury, NASA’s MESSENGER spacecraft entered the orbit of Mercury -- the first probe to orbit the planet. Its mission: to photograph and map Mercury’s surface composition, study its atmosphere & exosphere, its magnetic field and interaction with solar wind. I want to see those polar craters! MESSENGER stands for MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, Geochemistry and Ranging. It’s the second spacecraft sent to Mercury - -the first being Marine 10 in 1975. Why polar craters? It’s where there just might be water!

And now this... Solar Probe: First mission to sun scheduled for 2018. I was named in the proposal... because of my novel SUNDIVER!

The hexagon on Saturn’s north pole... solved! (?)

=== AND FINALLY ===

Facebook has declared that all posts by members on their walls are public property. And the Library of Congress is recording all Tweets. The U.S. has a patchwork of laws, some applying to banking, some to medical records. Even those laws won’t prevent those in the know from knowing everything about you. If you don’t want something made public, don’t put it online. I've been writing about this since before the Web.

There are solutions, but they'll take innovation, compromise... and agility.