Last political posting I broached my what-if scenario (1:4
odds) that the powers in the Grand Old Republican Party will try for a brokered
convention aimed at throwing the nomination to Paul Ryan. Now let's have a glance at why they are desperate to do this.
Hate-government propaganda has reached a point where having
a scintilla of experience at public governance is poison to a GOP candidate. Our
parents in the Greatest Generation would be appalled by this betrayal of everything they fought for, using government as one tool in their ambitious kit. Even more so, they'd be stunned by the
boomer and GenXer candidates’ stunning self-obsession.
Donald Trump puts his name on everything and coats his homes
with gold. Ben Carson's homes are plastered with paintings of himself (including
selfies with Jesus) and blowups of press clippings, even in the baths. Carly
Fiorina touts friendships with people who openly loathe her. Ted Cruz
calls himself the only Republican with any cojones.
What's with the frail egos of these GOP front-runners? Trump's blaring self-touting
and Carson's relentless humble-brags say a lot about their followers - our
neighbors who would foist such people on us.
== Oh the scenarios! ==
What an entertaining season. I wrote much of what follows in this posting back when Ben Carson was the flavor of the moment. (It's still fun stuff so read on!) Now it's all Donald Trump again. Before I go on though...
If Trump gets the GOP nomination, will other goppers (many of them calling him “unhinged” or a “bigot” or "jerk") support him as the other candidates have signed a pledge to do? They used that pledge to corner Trump, now it is they who are cornered. But this article points out why they’ll back him, if he gets the nom:
“Let’s say you’re a Republican politician who is sincerely disgusted by Trump’s demagoguery. Here’s what you’d have to consider on the other side of the scale. If Trump becomes president, he’d inevitably fill the 3,000 or so appointed positions in the executive branch almost entirely from the Republican government-in-waiting currently camped out in think tanks and advocacy organizations; those people will then proceed to advance conservative goals in every agency of government. He’ll appoint conservative judges who want to overturn Roe v. Wade, undermine laws protecting worker and minority rights, and so on. He’ll carry out a pleasingly belligerent foreign policy. And perhaps most of all, he’ll sign most everything the Republican Congress delivers to his desk, which could be quite a lot; repealing the Affordable Care Act would be only the beginning.”
Good point. And yet, recall he’s the only GOP contender not utterly beholden to Rupert Murdoch and the Saudi co-owned Fox News, or to the Bush-Cheney clan. My own guess is that a President Trump would not appoint the normal GOP factotums. Oh, but even if he swore to to that, is it worth choosing a maniac? Well, given that measurable outcomes from both Bush presidencies were 100% negative in every single category, I’d call that a plus in Trump’s favor.
On the other hand, well, he is a screeching solipsistic bully. See this article drawing interesting comparisons to the 1920s racist mogul Henry Ford.
Since collating and preparing this piece (in bits) I find that the news cycle keeps shining new lights on this madness. Jeb Bush calling Donald a "jerk" - while declaring support for whomever is the eventual nominee (Oh, multiple ironies!) Then the exchange of respectful praise between Trump and Vladimir Putin! After Fox spent the last several years kvelling and adulating Putin at every turn, crafting a cult of respect-idolatry around the Russian leader (which I dissect and demolish here), Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes must feel personally hurt when Putin goes and heaps praise on the fellow Fox least wants and can least control. See a satirical website, trump-putin2016.com, promoting Putin as Trump's running mate.
Seriously, just like Putin, the man has a seriously high IQ. Trump knows that Outcomes eventually matter to swing voters. Outcomes from governance -- metrics of US national health across the board -- were steeply negative across both Bush presidencies and nearly all metrics of US national health were positive across the Clinton and Obama administrations. This set of diametrically opposite outcomes includes conservative desires like economic activity, entrepreneurship, deficit trends and military readiness. That kind of fact chops away at dogmatic loyalties and starts to tug at some voters sense of self-interest.
Hence, Trump recently actually said he hopes for a US economic bubble collapse soon!
"I don't want to sound rude, but I hope if it explodes, it's going to be now, rather than two months into another administration."
... an openly treasonous sentiment that makes Donald Trump a genuine republican after all, through and through.
But then the cycle veers again! And now it's Dr. Ben Carson, prying his way back into headlines by saying he is thinking of bolting the Republican Party. Also he's still beating Trump in one place... on Facebook. And so...
== Oh the scenarios! ==
What an entertaining season. I wrote much of what follows in this posting back when Ben Carson was the flavor of the moment. (It's still fun stuff so read on!) Now it's all Donald Trump again. Before I go on though...
If Trump gets the GOP nomination, will other goppers (many of them calling him “unhinged” or a “bigot” or "jerk") support him as the other candidates have signed a pledge to do? They used that pledge to corner Trump, now it is they who are cornered. But this article points out why they’ll back him, if he gets the nom:
“Let’s say you’re a Republican politician who is sincerely disgusted by Trump’s demagoguery. Here’s what you’d have to consider on the other side of the scale. If Trump becomes president, he’d inevitably fill the 3,000 or so appointed positions in the executive branch almost entirely from the Republican government-in-waiting currently camped out in think tanks and advocacy organizations; those people will then proceed to advance conservative goals in every agency of government. He’ll appoint conservative judges who want to overturn Roe v. Wade, undermine laws protecting worker and minority rights, and so on. He’ll carry out a pleasingly belligerent foreign policy. And perhaps most of all, he’ll sign most everything the Republican Congress delivers to his desk, which could be quite a lot; repealing the Affordable Care Act would be only the beginning.”
Good point. And yet, recall he’s the only GOP contender not utterly beholden to Rupert Murdoch and the Saudi co-owned Fox News, or to the Bush-Cheney clan. My own guess is that a President Trump would not appoint the normal GOP factotums. Oh, but even if he swore to to that, is it worth choosing a maniac? Well, given that measurable outcomes from both Bush presidencies were 100% negative in every single category, I’d call that a plus in Trump’s favor.
On the other hand, well, he is a screeching solipsistic bully. See this article drawing interesting comparisons to the 1920s racist mogul Henry Ford.
Seriously, just like Putin, the man has a seriously high IQ. Trump knows that Outcomes eventually matter to swing voters. Outcomes from governance -- metrics of US national health across the board -- were steeply negative across both Bush presidencies and nearly all metrics of US national health were positive across the Clinton and Obama administrations. This set of diametrically opposite outcomes includes conservative desires like economic activity, entrepreneurship, deficit trends and military readiness. That kind of fact chops away at dogmatic loyalties and starts to tug at some voters sense of self-interest.
Hence, Trump recently actually said he hopes for a US economic bubble collapse soon!
"I don't want to sound rude, but I hope if it explodes, it's going to be now, rather than two months into another administration."
... an openly treasonous sentiment that makes Donald Trump a genuine republican after all, through and through.
But then the cycle veers again! And now it's Dr. Ben Carson, prying his way back into headlines by saying he is thinking of bolting the Republican Party. Also he's still beating Trump in one place... on Facebook. And so...
I== The other entertaining one ==
Though he's fading, can we linger a little with the other fun-one? I agree with essayist Amy Davidson that too much has been made of Ben Carson's exaggerated tales about his personal history.
For example, the 'knife' and 'hammer' stories tell us more about his intended audience -- redemptionist Christians -- than about his actual character. To them, his past does not show a messy, volatile personality fizzing below the surface, now asking for control over nuclear missiles. (A man who actively prays daily for the world and the United States to come to an end.) Rather, to his core base, these stories fit a specific narrative, that he is a reborn, his past sins and flaws washed away in the blood of the lamb.
In other words, Carson is tailoring his life story to get support from the radicals who vote in GOP primaries. So? I agree with Ms. Davidson that this is yawner stuff. No, Davidson urges that we pay attention instead to other Carsonisms:
"He has been utterly dismissive of climate change, and he has fostered the idea that vaccines cause autism. The numbers for his tax plan, insofar as there are any, don't add up. He has said that Joseph, of the coat of many colors, built the pyramids in order to store the grain of the seven fat years… troubling not because we expect our Presidents to be up on the distinction between Early and Middle Kingdom dynasties but because Carson presented it as an example of why one should reject the theories of experts and scientists and turn, instead, to the Bible.
"Similarly, his claim that none of the signers of the Declaration of Independence had experience in elective office, when a great number of them did, is significant not only because it is false but because it speaks to a particular view of history and politics. (Carson later amended the statement to say that none had federal experience. Of course, they couldn't have, because there was no federal government when the Declaration was signed.) (Brin note: Some of them had served in royal offices, which was the “federal” of their time.)
Davidson continues: "He has suggested that President Obama might declare martial law, and that the 2016 elections might be cancelled amid scenes of untenable civil disorder. He has compared Obamacare to slavery and to Nazism. He has also made what PolitiFact judged to be outright false statements in the last Republican debate about his ties to a nutritional-supplement company. (In contrast, PolitiFact rated Carson's description of West Point's 'scholarships' as mostly true.) Perhaps the problem isn't that the media is too partisan but that, in looking at Carson, there was a hope that there might be a non-partisan way to address a campaign whose success is hard for observers of American politics to understand."
Though he's fading, can we linger a little with the other fun-one? I agree with essayist Amy Davidson that too much has been made of Ben Carson's exaggerated tales about his personal history.
For example, the 'knife' and 'hammer' stories tell us more about his intended audience -- redemptionist Christians -- than about his actual character. To them, his past does not show a messy, volatile personality fizzing below the surface, now asking for control over nuclear missiles. (A man who actively prays daily for the world and the United States to come to an end.) Rather, to his core base, these stories fit a specific narrative, that he is a reborn, his past sins and flaws washed away in the blood of the lamb.
In other words, Carson is tailoring his life story to get support from the radicals who vote in GOP primaries. So? I agree with Ms. Davidson that this is yawner stuff. No, Davidson urges that we pay attention instead to other Carsonisms:
"He has been utterly dismissive of climate change, and he has fostered the idea that vaccines cause autism. The numbers for his tax plan, insofar as there are any, don't add up. He has said that Joseph, of the coat of many colors, built the pyramids in order to store the grain of the seven fat years… troubling not because we expect our Presidents to be up on the distinction between Early and Middle Kingdom dynasties but because Carson presented it as an example of why one should reject the theories of experts and scientists and turn, instead, to the Bible.
"Similarly, his claim that none of the signers of the Declaration of Independence had experience in elective office, when a great number of them did, is significant not only because it is false but because it speaks to a particular view of history and politics. (Carson later amended the statement to say that none had federal experience. Of course, they couldn't have, because there was no federal government when the Declaration was signed.) (Brin note: Some of them had served in royal offices, which was the “federal” of their time.)
Davidson continues: "He has suggested that President Obama might declare martial law, and that the 2016 elections might be cancelled amid scenes of untenable civil disorder. He has compared Obamacare to slavery and to Nazism. He has also made what PolitiFact judged to be outright false statements in the last Republican debate about his ties to a nutritional-supplement company. (In contrast, PolitiFact rated Carson's description of West Point's 'scholarships' as mostly true.) Perhaps the problem isn't that the media is too partisan but that, in looking at Carson, there was a hope that there might be a non-partisan way to address a campaign whose success is hard for observers of American politics to understand."
Indeed, were there a "moderate" on the GOP side, with a shot at the nomination, I'd say Carson would likely be the Republicans' traditional VP pick -- the usual, stark-jibbering-loopy choice to help keep the crazy wing mollified.... and maybe draw some black vote. Were Jeb still viable, I would lay money on a Bush-Carson ticket. (Lately? Money is moving to Ted Cruz as the inevitable, Nixon-like VP choice.)
Almost certainly the Iowa Caucus winner will (once again) not be the nominee. (What's the point of these things, again?) The decision will again emerge from South Carolina... the irony that tops them all.
Oh, but just when you
think Carson has plumbed to very bottom of the Silly Ocean, there’s this: “Various
scientists have said, ‘Well, you know there were alien beings that came down
and they have special knowledge and that’s how they were,” Carson
said, at a graduation speech at Andrews University, in 1998. (BuzzFeed
found the video.) “You know, it doesn’t
require an alien being when God is with you.”
Um – let’s look at that again: “Various scientists have said, ‘Well, you know there were alien beings
that came down…”
Oh, please try that
“the parties are all the same,” malarkey on us, now. The only hope of US conservatism is for the
few remaining sane fellows to rise up and denounce what Rupert Murdoch has done
to your movement.
==
Strange bedfellows in the war on reason ==
Islamic leaders from 20 countries at the International Islamic Climate Change Symposium
concluded their two-day summit in Istanbul, Turkey by issuing a formal
declaration on global environmental issues. The declaration — which was clear
to stipulate that climate change is both real and “human induced” — was equal
parts theological and scientific, using an Islamic moral lens to insist that
world leaders take immediate action to assist our warming planet. Thus joining
the Pope and nearly all Jewish leaders and so many others in demanding we pay
up on our obligation to future generations.
Who does this leave out?
Not Protestants, per se. Methodists and Episcopals etc have
no truck with the War on Science.
Rather, it is being
waged by two groups in the world today. Muslim jihadists and a special sub
category of protestant Christians called “Book of Revelation fetishists.” Those relishing the schadenfreude thought
that the world can be treated like disposable toilet paper, because it will all
end soon, in an orgy of vengeful blood and eternal torment for whomever they
dislike. In that scenario, anyone
calling for “creation tending” and care for the planet we were given must be a
satanic being trying to defy heaven’s plan.
And the fact that they are clearly morons, does that come into it,
anywhere?
== Political Miscellany ==
Under the category
of you-knew-this-already…. The House science committee is even worse than the Benghazi committee, with most of the republican members vociferously hateful
toward science.
This chart shows where the candidates stand on science and global warming,
A new
browser plug-in will highlight the names of U.S. politicians in news articles,
letting you hover over them, creating a pop-out that informs you who their major donors are. A great way to verify
that their pronouncements and stances are - yes - bought and paid for. Says the 16 year old designer of the App: “It is my hope that providing increased
transparency around the amount and source of funding of our elected
representatives may play a small role in educating citizens and promoting
change. If you use the extension when reading about a Congressional vote on
energy policy, for example, maybe you’ll discover that a sponsor of a bill has
received hundreds of thousands of dollars from the oil and gas industry. Or
maybe you’ll learn that the top donors to a member of Congress who opposes tort
reform are lawyers and law firms.” The motto of Greenhouse is: “Some are red.
Some are blue. All are green.” As in the color of cash.
== A falsifiable
hypothesis ==
Winding
up, let us take note of an actually interesting and testable suggestion from
someone on the far right! "At a time when most college campuses prohibit
guns, Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr. thinks the opposite should
be the case -- urging his school's students to be armed, especially in light of
this week's massacre in San Bernardino, California." Yes! By
all means, let us test the mantra of the gun cult that "an armed society
is a polite society," as coined by the hyper conservative longtime editor
of Analog Science Fiction, John W. Campbell. Let all students at Liberty
University be the first to volunteer to create such a society.
A university campus is perfect. Almost everyone is there completely of his or her own volition, knowing in advance the school's quirks. And they are relatively isolated and contained. Sure the surrounding communities should be consulted and accommodated. But by all means, Jerry, get on with it. Arm every co-ed, jock, cheerleader and Book of Revelation apocalypse fan. Let's see how it goes.
A university campus is perfect. Almost everyone is there completely of his or her own volition, knowing in advance the school's quirks. And they are relatively isolated and contained. Sure the surrounding communities should be consulted and accommodated. But by all means, Jerry, get on with it. Arm every co-ed, jock, cheerleader and Book of Revelation apocalypse fan. Let's see how it goes.
And
finally… How on Earth did this SMBC cartoon actually come true?
At least in the Crazy Party...
