While striving to find time to finish a first draft of my big new book on AI - (isn't everyone writing one?) - I figure we'll take a break from political/social upheavals, in order to talk about a topic that's on (or inside) everyone's minds.
== Are we amid a thought revolution right now? ==
As usual, Nathan Gardels offers a thought-provoking essay in Noema Magazine, this time about how AI may enable humans to clamber up to higher levels of consciousness, as appeared to happen during a ‘leap’ in philosophical awareness called the “Axial Age” – when Buddha, Socrates, and other sages all seemed to emerge within roughly a single generation, across Eurasia. And possibly other areas, without historical note. Gardels suggests we may be embarking on another, greater leap, if AI tools allow us to augment our prodigious neo-cortexes to new levels of awareness and sensibility.
In fact, the two cited events cited by Gardels… a past “Axial Age” and a looming "AI-xial Age"... are clearly not alone. For example, about 40,000 years ago humanity's tool sets -- and presumably language and art -- took huge leaps ahead in just a few centuries, maybe less.
Then there's Julian Jaynes. Although his brilliantly entertaining tome The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of The Bicameral Mind is now dismissed by scholars as quaint, that’s unfair, since clearly something happened in the era of which he wrote, including the till-now ill-explained Bronze Age Collapse.
In my novel EXISTENCE I argue that we've had at least seven such major self reprogrammings, and we were already in another one, even without AI.
Gardels continues with an excellent thought: "AI-driven planetary-scale computation has enabled us to conceive of climate change — a phenomenon that could not be apprehended by the human mind alone"...
Absolutely! In fact, I deem it likely that failure to perceive ecological self-destruction may be one of the top contending theories for the Fermi Paradox. Perceiving and cancelling such failure modes in time may be rare... as Jared Diamond discusses in his great book COLLAPSE.
"Perhaps an approach that explores how consciousness expands and unfolds..."
We know the answer to that. It unfolds under competitive pressure - NATURE's tool for 4 billion years. Our enlightenment tames competition to be less bloody and more productive and rapid than Nature! Nevertheless, that fact remains.
So how do we get that tool – reciprocally vigorous competition - to work peacefully and well for us? Well enough to deliver sane, decent AI consciousnesses? I discuss that elsewhere.
== More on the hottest topic: Can we replicate consciousness… and should we? ==
Want other Noema articles on AI? This one: The Danger of Superhuman AI is not what you think - is a long and eloquent whine, contributing absolutely nothing useful.
OTOH this one is much better! AI Could Actually Help Rebuild the Middle Class.
"By shortening the distance from intention to result, tools enable workers with proper training and judgment to accomplish tasks that were previously time-consuming, failure-prone or infeasible. Conversely, tools are useless at best — and hazardous at worst — to those lacking relevant training and experience. A pneumatic nail gun is an indispensable time-saver for a roofer and a looming impalement hazard for a home hobbyist.
"For workers with foundational training and experience, AI can help to leverage expertise so they can do higher-value work. AI will certainly also automate existing work, rendering certain existing areas of expertise irrelevant. It will further instantiate new human capabilities, new goods and services that create demand for expertise we have yet to foresee. ... AI offers vast tools for augmenting workers and enhancing work. We must master those tools and make them work for us."
Well... maybe. But if the coming world is zero-sum, then either machine+human teams or else just machines who are better at gathering resources and exploiting them will simply 'win.' Hence the question that is never asked -- and that is the only crucial one -- is:
"Can conditions and incentives be set up, so that the patterns that are reinforced are positive-sum for the greatest variety of participants, including legacy-organic humans and the planet?"
You know where that always leads me - to the irony that positive-sum (PS) systems tend to be inherently competitive, though under fairness rule-sets that we've witnessed achieving PS over the last couple of centuries.
Which leads us to: A new study by Caltech and UC Riverside uncovers the hidden toll that AI exacts on human health throughout its production and use, from chip manufacturing to data center operation.
And this re my alma mater: Caltech researchers have developed brain–machine interfaces that can interpret data from neural activity even after the signal from an implant has become less clear.
(Side note: I’ll keep letting slip – by accident – that Caltech gave me this honor. Hey. Credibility is relevant.)
Though… my kids remind me that the server farms delivering “AI” LLMs and other golem pre-entities are rapidly approaching bitcoin mining in their deleterious effects, heating up the planet.
== And more on the topic? ==
A new consciousness book by Micah Blumberg -- "Bridging Molecular Mechanisms and Neural Oscillatory Dynamics" -- introduces "Self Aware Networks: Theory of Mind" a new framework for understanding how the experience of being someone arises from neural activity.
And sci fi history scholar Tom Lombardo is running one of his extensive, multi-part deep-dives into a topic, this time highly pertinent: The Future Evolution of Consciousness Webinar.
Conscium claims to be “the world’s first applied AI consciousness research organisation.” From which my friend from the UK (via Panama) Calum Chace sent me this long paper re “Principles for Responsible AI Consciousness Research”. He is deeply involned with PRISM – “The Partnership for Research Into Sentient Machines” (Promoting responsible research into AI consciousness.) Which recruited me for their board.
Though in fact I truly cannot say which – if any – of these endeavors is on a ‘right track’ toward humanity’s soft and happy landing with our new children of the mind. While detailed and illuminating, that PDF – for example - remains vague about the most important things, like how to tell ‘consciousness’ from a system that feigns it… and whether that matters.
Broadening a bit into speculation… Take the exploratory dive into “what is consciousness’ that you’ll find in Peter Watts’s novel “Blindsight.” … wherein Watts makes the case that a sense of self is not necessarily needed, in order for a being to behave in a way that is actively intelligent, communicative and even ferociously self-interested.
All you need is evolution. And an overall system in which evolution remains (as in nature) zero-sum.
== And again, my own highly… different … takes on AI and dangerous clichés… like how best to navigate the future by using tools we already have! ==
While some – like Nathan Gardels and even more-so Reid Hoffman and Ray Kurzweill – suggest a coming AI-propelled apotheosis – or AIpotheosis (did I coin it first?) – from merging and expanding what it means to be human…
… others, like Eliezer Yudkowski publish jeremiad hand wringing like the self-explanatorily titled If Anyone Builds It, Everybody dies.
What is NOT helpful is the dismal mental laziness of Sam Altman and all the other Masters of The World, each of whom believes he (always ‘he’) is the Robur of Robots (look up the Verne reference!) A clade of tech wizards whose lazy assumptions about AI format could wind up proving Eliezer right.
And so, I conclude by reiterating…
My WIRED article breaks free of the three standard 'AI-formats' that can only lead to disaster, suggesting instead a 4th. That AI entities can only be held accountable if they have individuality... even 'soul'...
And still-more pertinent than ever… my related NEWSWEEK op-ed dealt with 'empathy bots'' that feign sapience and personhood.
Want it laid out more vividly detailed? My Keynote at the huge, May 2024 RSA Conference in San Francisco – is now available online. “Anticipation, Resilience and Reliability: Three ways that AI will change us… if we do it right.”
And you'll get it all, plus a dozen missing contexts that the robo-roburs have been utterly ignoring, in my coming Ai book. That is, if those new children of humanity allow it to appear in time.
38 comments:
The obvious solution to 'heating up the world' is to build space-based data and compute centers. Unbridled scaling and automation are becoming our new gods.
This is how 9/11 happened. GW Bush diverted counter-terror agents to search (uselessly) for scandals under Clinton. Counter-terror divisions have been stripped bare under Trump. And we need to yell about it. So when bad things happen blame will fall where it belongs...
https://apnews.com/article/trump-federal-agents-policing-tactics-d5caa4fe867d747ed466a48b726b2da5?
An evolved SIRI that could function as a "Sarcastic nerd in your pocket" might be amusing, occasionally even useful. My impression of contemporary A. I. is that it's too soon, 10, 20 years in the future, there might be some dirt cheap NVIDIA GPUs.
Your kids said 'the server farms delivering “AI” LLMs and other golem pre-entities are rapidly approaching bitcoin mining in their deleterious effects'. Perhaps the solution is to use "answering dumb ChatGPT questions" as the "proof of work" to contribute to the blockchain.
I'm usually a bit mournful as we transition from the six consecutive months with less-than-seven letters in their (English) names to the six consecutive months with seven-or-more letters.
But this year, it fits the mood. I just hope there's something to look forward to when we next transition the other way.
I just gave my 2x/year talk to the Australian military about the future. Told them I'll see to it they'll get summer back, even if I suffer because of it.
I am not sure that the regime wouldn't be fine with a new 9/11 happening.
Reichstag fire and such.
If we are at it, I remember inter-agency feuds being a factor here, see John O'Neill.
What sticks with me from the last thread:
Even if we
1) Improve chemical rockets enough that they can carry a meaningful payload to actualize Space colonisation, and
2) That Market becomes important enough to matter,
won't we increase the greenhouse effect much faster?
Have there projections been made for that case?
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220713-how-to-make-rocket-launches-less-polluting
Beaming power from orbit and bringing home refined metals that don't need to be mined down here and melt-refined could eliminate a lot of smokestacks.
Yep, and the resource-rich nations with no space capability will see their balances of trade implode. IIRC the Outer Space Treaty, which is silent on possible exploitation of resources, does forbid the extension of sovereignty claims over any extraterrestrial bodies. Even if someone brings a flag. While I'd love to see the value of the Earth's fossil fuel deposits plummet due to beamed energy sources coming on line, there are going to be consequences back on Earth - and a number of very powerful corporations who will try very hard to halt or delay this future while they pump and burn as much as possible. (All for shareholder value, which is the only criteria they use.)
Pappenheimer
Re: getting payloads to orbit without exacerbating AGW, there's a cautionary tale by Joe Haldeman about that, about a future with orbital installations who have rebelled against the surface nations, won, and don't care what their spacecraft launches and returns are doing to the atmosphere. They don't live there, after all.
Pappenheimer
And re: Oger's comment about Reichstag fire events, isn't that what is already being pushed for with the current and planned occupation of American cities with US military forces, to try to spark a violent reaction and thus justify declaring an emergency/martial law? Though I suspect that none of the NG units activated will be on duty for more than 29 days, because what I am seeing here is rampant low-budget fascism; trying to take over the country on the cheap.
These scatterbrained actions like slapping together Alligator Auschwitz and somehow reopening the actual Alcatraz (I'd like to see the budget estimates on that) give me hope that our would-be overlords are too incompetent to complete the job, though I am not complacent - the original fascists were similarly viewed by the states they took over. I mean, Rudolph Hess was the #2 man in the Nazi Party, and an obvious flake.
Pappenheimer
"AI" is being pushed by the fossil fuel oligarchs, for the fossil fuel oligarchs, to further enrich fossil fuel oligarchs. Same as cryptocurrencies. These oligarchs will try to suck every amp of power generated through the renewables boom in order to keep demand for their dwindling, poisonous treasure.
Currently, "AI" is bunch of statistical models stealing the most popular answer to questions. Not the correct answer, the most statistically likely one.
The first "AI" company that learns how to rigorously test competing answers for verity may be on to something good. But that is *hard* and the techbois in Silicon Valley do not do *hard*, they do fraud and scam.
But in the meantime, they are just another shitty polling device, trying to deduce from a sampling a bunch of ignorant voices. And with an implicit bias for increasing the energy demands for their product.
This is not the future, this is the past desperate to stop the diminishment of oligarch power via the replacement of obsolete treasures.
"AI" is utter fraud aimed at entrenching the current oligarchy.
GenAI is a trillion dollar parlor trick.
The verdict is already in on AI use: It makes us stupider.
https://tech.co/news/another-study-ai-making-us-dumb
Important to prepare for Vance/Thiel to run/own the US Government. I f I am right, and ALL of Trump's appointees have given him leverage kompromat, in exchange for their appointments, then the inheritors of those blackmail files will be the true rulers of the country and I have no idea of that includes Thiel. If it doesn't, then Peter needs to watch out for a Night of Long Knives.
Likewise, re my earlier post about a possible terror attack, now that Trump has diverted many counter-terror agents into absurd ICE_aiding missions in blue cities that are far more safe than most Read States? (Note that 9/11 happened just months after GW Bush committed the same egregious diversion.)
If such a calamity occurs, we must be ready for GOPpers trying to spin it as a Gleiwitz Incident or Reichstag Fire. We must be ready to Newsom it, making clear that diverting and wrecking US counter terror agencies was the real cause.
While I agree with many of the sentence assertions matthew posted above, and am saying so in my AI book... (without the masturbation-level exaggerations)... that is just one oversimplifying view of a blind man stroking an elephant.
Like you should know? You long ago did it the old fashioned way.
Trump had a stroke
@Celt,
"Don't give me hope." - Hawkeye to Black Widow
It will be interesting to see how evangelical MAGAs react to Theil, a gay man, being defacto ruler of the country.
celt they would do what they did with women and Blacks. "But I ALWAYS liked the GOOD ones!"
More likely, they will have no idea Thiel is running the country. As eminences go, he's much more gris than the Lone Skum.
Pappenheimer
P.S. Reserving all judgment regarding rumpT health issues, because I am vulnerable to believing reports that would gladden my heart. And I hate that the man is still someone I need to pay attention to, still. He should be doddering around a Black Sea retirement dacha by now, having barely escaped the FBI, with a few 'loyal' aides stealing his last remaining funds while they spin dreams for him of a return to power as a Triple Nobel winner.
Heard on Stephanie Miller's radio show:
"It's after Labor Day, so no more white supremacy."
I did see a photo that suggested he had an accident, possibly due to a blackout, where he had obvious hit the upper part of his head on something hard - particularly involving an impact between the top of his nose and left eye. Could have fallen face forward on a table with objects on it. The injuries are obvious - hence avoiding public appearances for a man of his vanity - but probably not serious. The more serious question is the cause.
My grandmother (a smoker!) was incredibly healthy until she turned 96, at which point everything fell apart all at once. She lived on her own until she took a fall just after her 96th birthday and had to be institutionalized. Four months later, she was gone.
Seems like DJT might have hit a similar moment of singularity.
Once Trump shuffles off his mortal coil, we have to roll up our sleeves and begin the decades long process of repairing the damage this bigoted idiot has done. Starting with making sure that democracy is protected from dictator wannabees and that no one like him can ever have this much power ever again. I see four reforms:
I. Nuclear Gerrymandering
Basically every Blue state does what Texas just did (and California is about to do in retaliation), gerrymander their congressional districts so that nearly all of each state's congressional delegation are Democrats. The remaining Red states can reply in kind, not that it would do them any good.
(Note: By Blue state I mean any state that went for Biden and whose results were not skewed like they were 4 years later by having a black woman run for president - something America obviously isn't ready for yet. So my advice to the Dems is to nominate only straight white males for president in the foreseeable future.)
Under perfect nuclear gerrymandering the Dems get a permanent lock on the House with a total number of 250 representatives vs.185 for the MAGA/GOP (with their representatives mostly coming from culturally backwards ex members of the confederacy and unpopulated and economically unimportant rectangle states). A permanent 65 seat advantage to the Dems.
II. Overturn the Reapportionment Act of 1929 which limited the total number of representatives in the House (and by extension the electoral college) to 435 members.
Replace the 1929 Act with the Wyoming Rule whereas the number of representative per state is determined by the least populated state (Wyoming) with each state receiving a number of representatives equal to their population multiple of the population of Wyoming.
This results in an increase n the number of House members to 578. Again the Dems get most of the increase in numbers which results in an even tighter lock on the house of 326 Dems to 251 MAGA/GOP . A permanent 75 seat advantage to the Dems in the House and the Electoral college.
(cont.)
III. Soft Secession
Soft secession is a political strategy where a sub-national entity, such as a U.S. state, uses legal and financial means to distance itself from the central government without formally declaring independence. Instead of a "hard" or formal secession, which is illegal in the U.S., soft secession involves a state keeping as much of its own wealth as possible and insulating itself from federal oversight and spending.
A primary tactic is for a wealthy (Blue) state to stop receiving—and stop paying into—federal funding programs. The goal is to weaken the federal administration financially while retaining the state's own tax wealth. This tactic is most viable for "giver states" (like California and New York), which contribute more in federal taxes than they receive in federal funding, unlike "taker states".
The delicious irony here is that this is a right wing idea. According to this right wing ideology, states can engage in quasi-secession by refusing to enforce federal laws they oppose, an action known as nullification or interposition. Examples include "Second Amendment sanctuary" states that refuse to enforce federal gun laws, or states and cities that have created "sanctuary" policies regarding federal immigration laws.
IV. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
This is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential ticket wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome.
In effect it nullifies the Electoral College making the election of a president democratic. Because of winner-take-all, presidential candidates only pay attention to voters in closely divided battleground states. In 2024, 94% of the general-election campaign events took place in just seven states. That is, 43 states and 80% of U.S. voters were on the sidelines.
It is is actually rather close to passing. National Popular Vote has been enacted into law by 18 jurisdictions, including 6 small states (DC, DE, HI, ME, RI, VT), 9 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, WA), and 3 big states (CA, IL, NY). These jurisdictions have 209 of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate the law. It has also passed in legislative chambers in 7 additional states with 74 electoral votes (AR, AZ, MI, NC, NV, OK, VA). Over 3,800 state legislators have sponsored or cast a recorded vote in favor of it.
Okay, a terrific sci fi reference on Instagram. Watch it play. Of course you'll get the reference to THEY LIVE! But points for anyone citing the brilliant source story by Robert Sheckley!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHe2q8PSaTl/
Examples include "Second Amendment sanctuary" states that refuse to enforce federal gun laws, or states and cities that have created "sanctuary" policies regarding federal immigration laws.
That's another example of "rules for me but not for thee." Right-wingers are all about nullification of any restrictions on their Second Amendment rights, but they sure clutch their pearls over sanctuary cities who refuse to coordinate with ICE.
The irony is that, since they somehow equate illegal aliens with street crime, they insist that Democratic sanctuary cities are promoting crime, when that's exactly what unfettered gun access actually does.
“and whose results were not skewed like they were 4 years later by having a black woman run for president…”
You. Know that I disagree that this was the primary cause.
“Basically every Blue state does what Texas just did (and California is about to do in retaliation), gerrymander their congressional districts so that nearly all of each state's congressional delegation are Democrats.”
Dems are inherently disadvantaged by being more urban and hence easier to pack into just a few dense districts. As happened in Tx.
Where the heck do you get: “Under perfect nuclear gerrymandering the Dems get a permanent lock on the House with a total number of 250 representatives vs.185 for the MAGA/GOP (with their representatives mostly coming from culturally backwards ex members of the confederacy and unpopulated and economically unimportant rectangle states). A permanent 65 seat advantage to the Dems.” ???
Where the heck do you get this?
This only happens if the next Dem majority – with a simple bill – expand the House to 600+ members. Makes Gerry much harder and also weakens red states in the Electoral College.
“The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact” is a ditzy and dumb idea from fifty different directions. It cannot work. Whereas summoning an actual meeting of the Electoral College might have interesting results. Especially if they are sealed in a room, like the cardinals electing a pope.
Redraw the to districts like Texas did, extending from blue cities and snaking across red countrysides. However this same process can be done to give blue the advantage
Perfect is a simplifying assumption. Nobody gets it perfect not even Texas which will still have 3 blue districts. But the point remains. With every blue state following California's lead a significant and permanent advantage can be had since blue states have greater populations.
Using the Wyoming rule, the California delegation expands from 52 to 67 representatives. Again the populations of blue states are higher
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is simplicity itself. The members simply assign their electoral votes to the candidate that has the most votes
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is simplicity itself.
The problem is getting enough states to sign on. The low-hanging fruit is already on board, and to get the rest of the way to 270, enough small states would have to voluntarily give up their party's power for the greater good. Since that party is inevitably the Republican one, that ain't happening.
The only way it could happen is if the residents of enough small Republican-dominated states decide they prefer fairness and democracy to Republican hegemony. And the only way that could happen is if something were to happen to FOX News.
I. Nuclear Gerrymandering.
II. Overturning the Reapportionment Act.
III. Soft Secession.
I second Celt's motion to do all-of-the-above, since 'Nuclear Gerrymandering' will forever fix Blue & Red State electoral boundaries in their current form, 'Overturning the Reapportionment Act' will allow underpopulated states like Wyoming to appoint THOUSANDS of federal representatives rather than just two and 'Soft Secession' is just Federal Nullification & Balkanization by another name.
I'm especially partial to the 'Giver v Taker State' embargo, as the Blue "giver states" like California and New York do contribute more in federal tax monies than do those financially strapped Red "taker states".
In fact, I vehemently agree that the Blue 'giver states' should get to keep all of their imaginary fiat money, so they can EAT IT instead of exchanging it for the deliberately undervalued Red 'taker states' supply of food, water & energy, while the piss poor Red states can muddle through somehow with only their copious natural resources to sustain them.
BTW, the following Axios article says it all, as it clearly states that the highest crime & homicide rates occur in the BLUE CITIES that infest many red states:
https://www.axios.com/2025/08/15/homicide-rates-highest-blue-cities-red-states
Best
I was lazy and just kinda scanned and saw "Overturning the Reapportionment Act' will allow underpopulated states like Wyoming to appoint THOUSANDS of federal representatives rather than just two and..."
.. and wondered "who the fk is THIS idiot? Oh... Oh, I see... never mind,
And um California feeds the nation, dummy. And nothing you yammer changes the fact that most red states are cesspits of mismanagement, corruption and turpitude. ALL turpitudes. I await your wager stakes.
You will never find a worse hive of scum and villainy than East Resume Speed, Arkansas. It's just that the county sheriff and his deputies have their fingers in all the crime, and having a higher murder rate than Chicago equals about an extra mysterious death per year in a town with pop. 232 1/2*.
(The 1/2 is Old Fred, who lives in the Air Raid Shelter with his BAR and is still raving about commies.)
Pappenheimer
P.S. I am also of the opinion that Trump is in the Epstein Files
P.P.S. There's been some notice taken of NG troops who, while supposed to be fighting crime in their deployed urban areas, are policing up the neighborhood instead - i.e. picking up trash. I suspect from prior service that at least some of these folks have refused their primary orders to stand around with loaded weapons menacing US civilians and been given punishment detail. It happened to me when I declined the 'voluntary' chapel service on Sunday in boot camp.
Seems the US are entering the "High Tech -Low Life" topos of the cyberpunk genre.
I just heard electricity prices are spiking in parts of the US, mainly because demand is driven up by data centers. At the same time Trump lowers future supply by stopping the building of wind parks already under construction.
Oh, and more data centers are already under construction and planned.
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