They're alive!
(1) I'm posting my SF comedy THE ANCIENT ONES!
Samples were available at davidbrin.com. Only now I'll go all the way through, one chapter per week (or so) on Wordpress. Come by for laughs + painful puns! And some sci fi concepts taken to extremes. Oh and there'll be freebies for best groaner comments to adjust the final version. (Full novel soon at Histria Press!)
== Rich prepper ingrates using my ideas ==
Almost exactly as depicted in Existence -- and after conversation with some of the innovative schemers -- it seems that an island nation -- one that is threatened by rising seas -- is collaborating with world zillionaires to erect a lagoon-sheltered arcology-city One that can float above changing sea levels… providing both those zillionaires and the island nation’s elites with refuge from both angry Nature and the western tax man. Again, exactly as in EXISTENCE. Moreover, as a bonus, those zillionaire preppers will get a legacy-sovereign UN seat, like a heritable seat on a stock exchange or law firm. Well-schemed!
And no need to pay the fellow who gave you the idea, in the first place? That, too, was predicted.
Speaking of predictive success, here’s an extremely minor forecast I'll now offer. Minor, but still, one for the registry. I foresee that folks will feel a small but real sense of relief when we reach the year 2032! Why? Because we will suddenly be able to use just 6 digits for the date, instead of 8. Can you envision why? Speak up, in comments.
Alas though, right about the same year religious zealotry will spread rapture ravings, like nothing we have ever seen before. Can you envision why? I explained here. Hopefully, by then we'll still have a civilization then that awards predictive points. And that has resumed confidence in science and reason.
Meanwhile... In Nautilus, Namir Khaliq interviews me, Doctorow, Bujold, Stross, Jemison and Weir about how science influences science fiction, especially in a time of looming AI. Come for insights.
== Are hidden or ‘shy’ aliens or AIs watching us right now? ==
The "After On" podcast posting by Rob Reid (author of the SF novels After On and Year Zero) about "Shy or Hidden AI" was fun and well-spoken... though incomplete and hence not fully persuasive. "Might we unwittingly start sharing our world with a super AI?" A monologue and (mostly) playful thought experiment. Listen on Apple Podcasts.
Interesting? Well... let me shine light on one under-explored aspect. For about two decades, I've pretty often been interviewed about either aliens or Artificial Intelligence. Sometimes I trot out a particular riff, when it seems likely to be fun. Here goes:
"I can now reveal that I've been 'channeling' for hidden (aliens/AIs) who use me as their human 'front,' to publish odd thoughts, or their attempts at sci fi (some better than others!), or else in order to float ideas out there...
"...like this idea that I'm floating right now, that a particular human might collaborate in this way, fronting for cryptic (aliens/AIs) who are shy about being publicly revealed. An idea that nearly all human audiences have deemed benignly amusing, because they assume that I am joking!
"But then, isn't that what I'd be hired to do? Getting folks pondering the possibility, so that the hidden aliens or AIs might get a measure of the reactions? Perhaps to see if it's safe to come out?
"Or else... isn't this exactly what a rascal like me would say, in order to tease about weird ideas? Just like you idea-rascals out there pay me to do?"
In fact, most of the last fourth of my novel Existence ponders cryptic or 'shy" interstellar probes who (conjecturally) have been lurking in the asteroid belt for millions of years, and might recently have been probing our internet. In that novel I riff-contemplate a wide array of motives they might have for maintaining secrecy a while longer. And yes, using humans as intermediaries is one of a dozen (actually 13) possible scenarios.
Still, this is an interesting and fun... if incomplete ... podcast speculation about the possibility. Including the notion that instead of lurker alien probes, it might be 'Shy AIs' reading these words right now as I type them... or else from stored files, five years from now.
I do say other things to such aliens or AI lurkers, that I won't get into here. Suffice it that I give them grandfatherly advice! ;-)
== The deep context of sci fi ==
Possibly the greatest living epic poet – certainly of epic-length poems about the future or sci fi themes – is Frederick Turner. He’s done me the honor of reading Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood – And while agreeing with some of my points, he also demurs on others.
"Yes, many of the great epics - works like the Mahabharata, the Heike and the Aeneid – do emphasize demigods in a context of assumed rule by kingship. But that may not have been in preferred-contrast to then-unknown innovations like democracy."
Rather -- Fred argues -- many of them do contain their own profound critiques of power abuse by hereditary kings. Further, many of those epics may have been viewed as liberal in their age and context, contrasting instead vs: “…the only prior alternative, bloody tribalism and what Marx called rural idiocy. The city was a huge achievement, and it needed walls and authority, and was the origin of law and advanced technology.”
Certainly it has been pointed out that the story of Cain vs Abel has a context of the resentment by hunters and herders against the encroachment of agriculturalists, who appear (from genetic evidence) to have been far more expansionist and violent.
Indeed, a major new element has been added by genetic research which now says there was likely a huge Y Chromosome bottleneck around 10,000 years ago. Weirdly and inexplicably, it may have happened roughly simultaneously across much of the world -- a few centuries when only 17% or so of males got to breed. The implications are immense!
For one thing, this was the disruptive time when we invented both beer and kings. It's known that humans had less resistance to alcohol back then - more like other mammals, who are still very susceptible. So drunken boors musta been much more common. And this coincided with the new kings of minor agricultural realms, who abruptly possessed a power that tribal chiefs never had - to order killed anyone they didn't like, including drunken boors. (This was actually observed by Captain Cook etc., in Polynesia.) Hence, just one effect could have been a major quick-evolution toward more self control re alcohol. (Still incomplete, alas.)
It seems that this phase only lasted a few centuries, until kingdoms grew larger. At which point the top king's harems were as big as he could handle and he gained nothing further by allowing the lords under him to keep rampage-murdering other males. In fact, the local top king would lose soldiers that he needed against other mid-sized kings. Hence, there arrived rule of law against capricious murder... even by local lords... and the Y Chromosome bottleneck stabilized.
Sure, that is a speculative take on recent discoveries. But if all that is true, then there may be real implications for the vast oeuvre of oral mythology, coming to us from that era. The roots of all our heritage might be re-examined in new light.
== Pertinent Prescience? ==
Octavia Butler's terrific 1998 novel, Parable of the Talents, depicts a dystopian US ruled by fundamentalists. President Jarret seeks to rid the country of non-Christian beliefs, using the slogan.... "Make America Great Again." Sigh and alack.
And I miss her.
And her memory reminds me that we need to Make America smart and good and wise (and thus actually Great) someday yet again.
23 comments:
For the record, the previous comments went to a second page just before Dr Brin posted "onward", so there might be some posts there that you missed, or you might have posted something that you thought disappeared into the ether.
Carry on.
I'm glad I read The Ancient Ones before the promotional material started giving away who those various entities are. Maybe it's inevitable in the ways of promotion, and maybe the images do get people more interested than they would be otherwise. Just sayin' that I'm glad I was able to come to the realizations of what those creatures were during the actual course of reading the book.
Implicit agreement with some of Brin's political theory:
"for you Robocop fans out there, the Great Wad (as my friend, the late Harlan Ellison used to call them) does not admire the bespectacled kid working a night shift at a filling station while studying plane geometry.
They (sic) Great Wad hates that guy. Instead, they admire the asshole on the motorcycle who mocks the idea of being a "college boy" and takes what he wants by force.
Those are the ones we need to somehow bamboozle into the Big Tent. And believe me, I understand how uncomfortable this might make some of you. "
https://driftglass.blogspot.com/
Pappenheimer
Pappenheimer, you have to get them to realize that they are being taken for suckers. That machismo is a bribe to make them accept being expendable and exploited.
REVISED to include announcing After 44 years, at last (today!) a lovely hardcover of my first novel SUNDIVER with gorgeous cover + interiors by Jim Burns. From Phantasia Press. Murder... on the Sun! (Beat that, Poirot.)
WWW.TINYURL.COM/HARDSUNDIVER
Congratulations
It is most telling that our fine host chooses to describe the hugely historical Y Chromosome Bottleneck of 10,000 years ago as 'weird & inexplicable', as human mating inequality was indubitably the historic norm and his preferred 'modern' one-to-one human mating strategy is most likely the waning aberrant artifact of subsistence agriculture, as shown by the unforced reoccurrence of human mating inequality wherein (1) western women prefer the top 20% of men while rating 80% of men as unattractive & undesirable, (2) 30% of western men characterize themselves as sexless 'incels' for at least 12 months, (3) western fertility has plummeted to historic lows and (4) 45% of western women will be single & childless by 2030.
(1) https://www.eviemagazine.com/post/women-more-selective-80-men-unattractive-on-dating-apps-recent-research
(2) https://news.iu.edu/live/news/26924-nearly-1-in-3-young-men-in-the-us-report-having-no
(3) https://www.npr.org/2023/03/19/1163341684/south-korea-fertility-rate
(4) https://www.msn.com/en-in/lifestyle/women/45-of-women-to-be-single-childless-by-2030-morgan-stanley-study/ar-AA1qfbU4
Unfortunately, it is this very type of statistical illiteracy that I've come to expect here, as currently demonstrated by Dr. Brin's moral preference for a fair (anti-evolutive) one-to-one mating strategy & previously demonstrated by our young Flack's apparent inability to separate the statistical fact from moral nicety.
"That a condition is unusual" is exactly my point as that which is unusual (rare, abnormal) cannot be considered either common or normal; this, I assert, is a completely different & separate issue from one's preference for morally decent falsehoods; and, likewise, I assert that one can be 'morally decent' to statistical outliers without promoting falsehoods & lying thru one's teeth.
And, finally, a word on 'Darwinism':
Darwinism (noun)
A theory of biological evolution developed by Charles Darwin, stating that all species of organisms arise and develop through selective breeding (aka 'the natural, unequal & inequitable selection of small, inherited genetic variations') that hopefully increases the individual's ability to compete, survive & reproduce, while conferring cumulative selective advantage upon surviving offspring.
But who, pray tell, would object to stronger, healthier, brainier & more competitive human offspring, I wonder?
Only those zealots who prefer voluntary human extinction over reproduction, and those expendable rejects & losers who fail miserably at either breeding or reproduction, and those egotistic narcissists who resent their own obsolescence & believe that 'history has ended' with them.
And, while the category we each choose is our own, just know that the human future belongs only to those biological units who succeed at reproduction but, most emphatically, the future does NOT belong to those bespectacled childless nerds who only excel at plane geometry.
Best
Just finished Naomi Kritzker's "Liberty's Daughter" - an interesting/fun take on sea-steading with a few pokes at libertarians.
William G wrote:
Just finished Naomi Kritzker's "Liberty's Daughter" - an interesting/fun take on sea-steading with a few pokes at libertarians.
I read that not too long ago and I also quite enjoyed it. Would recommend.
Rather than reject the embrace of Locum’s cyber manna, I’m going to practice the core principal of improv, which is the Yes-And.
1) western women prefer the top 20% of men while rating 80% of men as unattractive & undesirable
Yes! And “Compared with non-gamers, men playing videogames for more than 1 hour/day were less likely to have premature ejaculation but more likely to have decreased sexual desire.”
And “Results from a study conducted by researchers at the University of New Hampshire suggest that college men who play video games tend to exercise less and have poorer eating habits compared to non-gamers.”
And seriously. Duh.
(2) 30% of western men characterize themselves as sexless 'incels' for at least 12 months,
Yes! And “A Dentist Tesla Cybertruck Owner Says Loneliness Drove Him to Buy a Truck That Turns Heads: “They Can’t Ignore You Now” — Close to 50 Cybertruck Owners Share Similar Feelings”
(3) western fertility has plummeted to historic lows and (4) 45% of western women will be single & childless by 2030.
Yes! And “Despite their emphasis on the rewards of staying home and raising children, Republicans continue to delegate more of the responsibility of child-rearing to their wives than Democratic fathers.”
“And, while the category we each choose is our own, just know that the human future belongs only to those biological units who succeed at reproduction but, most emphatically, the future does NOT belong to those bespectacled childless nerds who only excel at plane geometry.”
Yes! Locum supports our host’s argument (class war with oligarchs targeting the fact using professions.)
And here’s something else to chew on!
“The New Must-Have for Overwhelmed Kids: An Executive Function Coach
As students struggle with paying attention and managing stress, demand is soaring for a new—and often pricy—kind of support.”
Go forth my children and multiply!
2) 30% of western men characterize themselves as sexless 'incels' for at least 12 months
Only 12 months? I'd have been ecstatic in high school and college to have been without sex for only 12 months. These kids today...
3) western fertility has plummeted to historic lows and (4) 45% of western women will be single & childless by 2030.
So overpopulation isn't a concern any more? Eight billion humans isn't enough?
"...but, most emphatically, the future does NOT belong to those bespectacled childless nerds who only excel at plane geometry.”
It's a natalist fallacy that a legacy only pertains to one's own biological offspring. It presumes that, for example, if your goal is to emigrate to Mars, that goal will be advanced by your genetic descendants and not by anyone who isn't your genetic descendant. As if George Washington and Alexander Hamilton haven't achieved a kind of immortality in other ways. Or Hitler, for that matter.
Has locum apologized for his breathless support of Gaetz?
machismo has been a good method for getting guys to make themselves expendable since before the Trojan War. I'd have thought that the invention of the water-cooled machine gun would have started to make men say "Hold up, now", but to steal from Stephenson:
Shaftoe, US Marine: "Banzai charges don't work!"
Goto Dengo, IJA: "All the that know that were killed in Banzai charges!"
Pappenheimer
Exactly. The failures of feminism have come from its attempts to shame men into changing for the sake of women. What is needed is for it to change into a broader movement. And for that to happen men need to loose their taste for the ego bribes of machismo and to see it as the con that it is,
But changes have to be based on what the difference between the sexes actually are. Feminists try to attribute too much to nurture and reactionaries attribute too little.
Did someone say Darwinism? Here's my prediction:
Far-future Humanity will be athletes, acrobats, singers, artists, poets, and lightning calculators, from childhood. Their immune systems will easily defeat all parasites, cancers, bacteria, viruses, prions, and toxins. Their livers will break down dioxin and nanomachines. They will resist gamma rays, sales pressure, and candy. They'll have accurate intuitions for physics, statistics, business, and politics. They'll have super-Human compassion, super-Human emotional resilience, super-Human bullshit detection, a super-Human sense of humor, and many other gifts.
That’s the _good_ news. The _bad_ news is that they'll *need* all of those super-Human gifts to survive long enough to reproduce.
Larry Hart 6:12:
The problem is the rate of population decline. If it's too fast, then we'll get an inverted population pyramid, with plenty of geezer pensioners supported by not enough young workers and innovators. I guess that Japan will try to solve the problem with robots, America with immigrants (reluctantly), and China with elder poverty.
Lloyd,
There is the 'Gate to Women's Country' method, also known as 'why male reindeer don't fight'. Needs a serious does of Lysistrata, though, which will increase the incel count dramatically. For a few generations.
Pappenheimer
A (literally) grimmer solution is the one given in the story 'Gerontius Dancing'.
It's known that humans had less resistance to alcohol back then
Does this offer an explanation for the oft-stated derogatory meme that native Americans and Australian Aborigines (but, perhaps significantly, NOT native Africans except for isolated tribes) are 'natural alcoholics'? I would have thought there would be at least one Doctorate in researching that possibility.
Based on my recent experience of watching my mother fade away, a lot of people wouldn't regard the Dancing Gerontius scenario as grim at all, compared to the alternative.
Quick survey suggests that alcohol tolerance isn't definitively genetic, but alcohol intolerance is. Europeans don't have as much incidence of alcohol intolerance as some other populations - on AVERAGE.
The other thing I gleaned is that it's not wise to try to drink a Luxembourger under the table. (Again, on average). Funny, I thought the Finns would be champs at alcohol imbibement....just my stereotyping showing up, I suppose.
Pappenheimer
Re: bespectacled nerds, childless or not, who excel at plane geometry, I'll try to reclaim my meme here (from Loc, I guess?) by pointing out that there are definitely women and men who are turned on by academic accomplishment. Also, of the nerd and the thug in the Robocop movie's gas station scene, which one got a Darwin award?
Pappenheimer
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