Before getting into Science as the ultimate accountability process, let me allow that I am biased in favor of this scientific era! Especially after last weekend when Caltech - my alma mater - honored me - along with three far-more-deserving others - as Distinguished Alumnus. Seems worth noting. Especially since it is one honor I truly never expected!
You readers of Contrary Brin might be surprised that, with the crucial US election looming, I'm gonna step back from cliff-edge politics, to offer some Big Picture Perspective about how science works... and civilization, in general.
But I think maybe perspective is kinda what we need, right now.
== How did we achieve the flawed miracle that we now have... and take too much for granted? ==
All the way back to our earliest records, civilization has faced a paramount problem. How can we maintain and improve a decent society amid our deeply human propensity for lies and delusion?
As recommended by Pericles around 300 BCE… then later by Adam Smith and the founders of our era… humanity has only ever found one difficult but essential trick that actually works at freeing leaders and citizens to craft policy relatively - or partially - free from deception and falsehoods.
That trick is NOT preaching or ‘don’t lie’ commandments. Sure, for 6000 years, top elites finger-wagged and passed laws against such stuff... only to become top liars and self-deceivers! Bringing calamities down upon the nations and peoples that they led.
Laws can help. But the truly ’essential trick’ that we’ve gradually become somewhat good-at is Reciprocal Accountability … freeing rival powers and even average citizens to keep an eye on each other laterally. Speaking up when we see what we perceive as lies or mistakes.
== How we've done this... a method under threat! ==
Sure, scientists are human and subject to the same temptations to self-deceive or even tell lies. We who were trained in a scientific field (or two or three) were taught to recite the sacred catechism of science: “I might be wrong!”
That core tenet – plus piles of statistical and error-checking techniques – made modern science different – and vastly more effective (and less hated) -- than all or any previous priesthoods. Still, we remain human. And delusion in science can have weighty consequences.
Which brings us to this article by Chris Said: "Scientific whistleblowers can be compensated for their service." It begins with a paragraph that’s both true and also way exaggerates! Still, the author poses a problem that needs an answer:
“Science has a fraud problem. Highly cited research is often based on faked data, which causes other researchers to pursue false leads. In medical research, the time wasted by followup studies can delay the discovery of effective treatments for serious diseases, potentially causing millions of lives to be lost.”
As I said: that’s an exaggeration – one that feeds into today’s Mad Right, in its all-out war vs. every fact-using profession. (Not just science, but also teaching, medicine and law and civil service... all the way to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.)
Still, the essay is worth reading for its proposed solution. Which boils down to do more reciprocal accountability, only do it better!
The proposal would start with the fact that most scientists are competitive creatures! Among the most competitive that this planet ever produced – nothing like the lemming, paradigm-hugger stereotype spread by some on the far-left... and by almost everyone on today’s entire gone-mad right.
Only this author proposes that we then augment that competitiveness with whistle blower rewards**, to incentivize the cross-checking process with cash prizes.
Hey, I'm all in favor! I’ve long pushed for stuff like this since my 1998 book The Transparent Society: Will Technology Make Us Choose Between Privacy and Freedom?
...and more recently my proposal for a FACT Act...
...and especially lately, suggesting incentives so that Artificial Intelligences will hold each other accountable (our only conceivable path to a ’soft AI landing.’)
So, sure… the article is worth a look - and more discussion.
Just watch it when yammerers attack science in general with the 'lemming' slander. Demand cash wagers over that one!
== A useful tech rule-of-thumb? ==
Do you know the “hype cycle curve”? That’s an observational/pragmatic correlation tool devised by Gartner in the 90s, for how new technologies often attract heaps of zealous attention, followed by a crash of disillusionment, when even the most promising techs encounter obstacles to implementation, and many just prove wrong.
That trough is followed, in a few cases, by a more grounded rise in solid investment, as productivity takes hold. (It happened repeatedly with railroads and electricity and later with computers and the Internet and seems to be happening with AI.) The inimitable Sabine Hossenfelder offers a podcast about this, using recent battery tech developments as examples.
Your takeaways: yes, it seems that some battery techs may deliver major good news pretty soon. And remember this ‘hype cycle’ thing is correlative, not causative. It has almost no predictive utility in individual cases.
But the final take-away is also important. That progress is being made! Across many fronts and very rapidly. And every single thing you are being told by the remnant denialist cult about the general trend toward sustainable technologies is a damned lie.
Take this jpeg I just copied from the newsletter of Peter Diamandis, re: the rapidly maturing tech of perovskite based solar cells, which have a theoretically possible efficiency of 66%, double that of silicon. (And many of you first saw the word “perovskite” in my novel Earth, wherein I pointed out that most high-temp superconductors take that mineral form… and so does most of the Earth’s mantle. Put those two together!)
Do subscribe to Peter’s Abundance Newsletter, as an antidote to the gloom that’s spread by today’s entire gone-mad-right and by much of today’s dour, farthest-fringe-left.
The latter are counter-productive sanctimony junkies, irritating but statistically unimportant as we make progress without much help from them.
The former are a monstrously insane, science-hating treason-cult that’s potentially lethal to our civilization and world and our children. And for those mouth-foaming neighbors of ours, the only cure will be victory – yet again, and with malice toward none – by the Union side in this latest phase of our recurring confederate fever.
======
** The 1986 Whistle Blower law, enticing tattle-tales with up to 30% cuts of any $$ recovered by the US taxpayers, has just been gutted by a Trump appointed (and ABA 'not-qualified') judge. Gee, I wonder why?
116 comments:
So Ursula LeGuin's 1971 The Lathe of Heaven prefigures both Watchmen and Thanos, even the comics' Thanos from the 1990s.
And how about this innocuous excerpt:
"I even voted Isolationist in the last election because Harris promised to pull us out of the Near East."
"How much longer can I go on being an atheist?"
Photovoltaics demonstrates the competitive nature of scientists. It's a flat out race between physicists/chemists (solar cell) and biologists (artificial leaf). The great thing is - both sides would like to see the other succeed!
Yes.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Oct28-9.html
Although many Arab Americans think that Donald Trump will be worse fo their community than Kamala Harris, they nevertheless plan to vote for Jill Stein, just to punish Joe Biden for his role in supplying Israel with weapons it is using in Gaza. The technical term political scientists use for this is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
...
For Arab Americans, voting for Stein en masse is playing with fire. If Trump wins, his plan for ending the war is for Israel to win it. He has already told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nethanyahu to "finish the job." Arab Americans aren't going to like the results. And if Harris wins Michigan without the Arab American vote, that sends her the message that she doesn't need them, rather than the message that they are an important part of her base.
Yes, well, if you had a preferential voting system, I'd tell arab-americans to go for it, if Biden's support for Israel has really got up their noses.
... but you don't, so I'd tell arab-americans to shove their feelings, and vote for their *least* worst candidate (and maybe point out that nothing has any hope of improving under Trump, even white supremacy.)
Incidentally, following a Bluesky discussion comparing Musk's cybertruck to a trash dumpster, I have coined a new name for it: the 'dash trumpster'. World's problems solved...
Reposting to fix bolding:
If we had a preferential voting system, they'd list Trump as their second choice. It doesn't matter what he will do in the future--their point is to punish Biden and the Democrats for not giving them everything their ids desire.
They seem determined to punish Democrats for arming Israel because Biden happened to be president after Oct 7. For the ones who actually think about the consequences, they think that if Trump disappoints them, they'll abandon him next time, once they've shown how important they are to a campaign. As if they won't be in a concentration camp or deported to Gaza themselves by the next election.
I guess the rest of my life is going to suck.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/opinion/donald-trump-jr-republican-party.html
The Republican Party [ Donald ] Trump Jr. is building is younger, angrier and even more anti-establishment than today’s version. It is united less by common values and common ideas than by common contempt for its opponents — the liberal elites in government, big business, academia and Hollywood, whom he sees as dangerous enemies that must be forcefully confronted and vanquished. It’s a Republican Party that, no matter who wins in November, offers little hope of a respite from the chaos and vitriol that have defined American politics for the last decade.
Sounds like such folk want to vote Trump anyway, but don't want to admit it.
'ids' being the tell.
For most "undecided" voters, I'd say that's right.
For the Michigan Arabs in particular, I get a different take. They don't like Trump. They're just madder at Democrats at the moment.
They want to demonstrate that if the party in power* doesn't cater to their specific desires, they can throw the bums out. No matter that the replacement bums might be worse. The point is to show that they must be catered to.
* Many Americans have no idea how government works--that the party which controls the presidency and one house of congress isn't as much "in power" as they think. As long as the minority party is more interested in obstruction than in legislation, it's pretty easy for them to get their way.
That's a point to expand on. Proponents of the Senate filibuster say that the supermajority requirement guarantees that a mere 50.1% can't ram their agenda down everyone's throats. It takes an agreement of 60% to get something pushed through.
But if their goal is obstruction rather than legislation, then the filibuster means that a mere 41% can get their way all the time. The exact opposite of what the filibuster purportedly is for.
" then the filibuster means that a mere 41% can get their way all the time. "
Minority Veto is a wonderful improvement on majority rule, WHEN the polity is willing to negotiate, as in sane times. We are not in sane times. Both Clinton and Obama had 2 years of a Congress and wasted both opportunities trying to negotiate. Biden+Pelosi knew better and hit the ground running and got done almost a quarter of what needs doing! A huge amount that lefties give them scant credit for.
Gonna do a midweek posting filled with useful jpegs
I am taking bets for a DP blowout. But I desperately fear being wrong. A squeaker victory means we'll need every FBI undercover agent to do heroic service to avoid massive violence. And if Trump wins...?
We keep fretting over MAGA post election violence if Harris wins. NO ONE talks about the inevitable outcome - if Trump wins. If he trashes the FBI and military etc... expect the fact professions -- from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to maybe even the military officer corps -- to do a General Strike.
The quarter million subscribers leaving the Wa Post are just a taste.
Let's see how MAGAs like it when all the experts they have poured hate upon refuse to serve.
Dr Brin:
I am taking bets for a DP blowout. But I desperately fear being wrong.
Hmmmm. I'm trying to decide whether to take that bet, as I'm of exactly that same mindset. I don't want to jinx it, but I think the Dems have a shot. I also desperately fear being wrong, either in the aboveboard voting totals or in the shenanigans that Republicans will pull to affect the outcome.
We keep fretting over MAGA post election violence if Harris wins.
I actually fret more over MAGA pre-election violence to cause Trump to "win".
expect the fact professions ... to do a General Strike.
That might be something to bet on. Because I hope you are right, but I "expect" that they'll try to go on with business as usual.
It will be interesting to see how the MAGAts wave away the inflation and scarcity that a Trump presidency ushers in. But they've been very good at the 1984 doublethink, and I suspect they'll switch without a beat to "Inflation makes us all millionaires!"
Testing, just to see if I screwed up italicization.
"I am taking bets for a DP blowout. But I desperately fear being wrong. "
That would be my dearest wish and the best early Christmas present ever, but I don't see it. I'm not trusting the polling because trumpworld is deliberately flooding the zone with so much bullshit, but I would think that the most reputable polls might pick up some hints. Of course a large influx of unlikely voters would make things harder to predict. There's also the question of how many old school GOPers are there who are keeping their mouths shut in public but will heed Liz Cheney in the privacy of the voting booth. So my most optimistic scenario is that Harris holds the states Biden won, flips NC, and adds a few million more to the popular vote margin. Which normally would be convincing enough, but the ratfuckers aren't taking "OH HELL NO!" for an answer. 2025 will be lit, not in a good way.
The 250K+ WaPo cancellations apparently got to Bezos enough that he posted his own editorial on that matter, completely forgetting that the first thing one should do when one finds oneself in a hole is to stop digging. The time to change a policy like no longer making Presidential endorsements is right after an election, not right before one. My cancelled subscription runs through mid-January, so I took my opportunity to flame Bezos for his breach of trust and enjoy many of the other comments doing the same. Some of the commenters are good enough to deserve their own editorial space. I'll miss them, but should Bezos sell to someone who actually keeps a promise to not interfere with the paper's operations, I'll be back.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Oct29-1.html
Here's a rundown of the trio of "jokes" that have suddenly made the comedian [at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally] a household name:
"There's a lot going on. I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico."
"These Latinos, they love making babies, too. Just know that they do. There's no pulling out. They don't do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country."
[Pointing at a Black audience member: "That's cool, Black guy with a thing on his head. What the hell is that, a lamp shade? Look at this guy! Oh, my goodness. Wow! I'm just kidding, that's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party last night. We had fun, we carved watermelons together. It was awesome!"
The problem with a racist, nativist, Christianaist party trying to be a big tent (Blacks for Trump, Latinos for Trump, Women for Trump, etc) is that they can't help themselves from insulting the ones they are trying to invite in. So only the most self-hating toadyish ones remain.
From the same article:
The other speakers on stage may not have insulted Puerto Ricans, but they were also full of various forms of angry, hateful, demagogic rhetoric. Rudy Giuliani was there, and argued that Palestinians are born to be terrorists and that they are taught to "kill us at 2 years old."
This is what Michigan Arabs whose issue is the war in Gaza prefer to Kamala Harris.
@Flypusher, besides Republican rateffing with the polls, I suspect respondents are suffering poll fatigue from being asked every day if not multiple times a day, "Who are you voting for NOW?"
I'm not feeling so much that the polls are wrong as that they are meaningless. It's the equivalent of looking for your wallet under the lamppost because that's where the light is, even though that's not where you lost it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOvcGf3S7yM&t=364s
Flypusher:
so I took my opportunity to flame Bezos for his breach of trust and enjoy many of the other comments doing the same. Some of the commenters are good enough to deserve their own editorial space.
Where do you see the comments?
In every phase of the recurring US Civil (culture) War, going back to 1778, the fiery anti-urban, anti-modernity, anti-equality, 'confederate' faction won initial victories with aggressiveness, always assuming wimpiness on the part of 'northern epicures.' And they did win 3 phases - in the 1830s, 1870s and 1920s, by not pushing too hard. 4 other - bigger - phases - were total victories for the Union and modernity, for reasons Sam Houston expressed perfectly, in urging fellow Texans not to secede:
“Let me tell you what is coming. After the sacrifice of countless millions of treasure and hundreds of thousands of lives, you may win Southern independence if God be not against you, but I doubt it. I tell you that, while I believe with you in the doctrine of states rights, the North is determined to preserve this Union. They are not a fiery, impulsive people as you are, for they live in colder climates. But when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverance of a mighty avalanche...”
It's not purely North vs South, this time. But the deepest cultural divide is the same, going back to 1778. And today's 'red' anti-modernity passions are fully 1860s in vehemence - only this time with more foreign backers than even Jeff Davis could wish for.
Alas, there is no Sam Houston chiding for satiability. No recognition that machismo stands little chance, if it wages all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
Though maybe this blue generation does lack the patience and perseverance of which Old Sam spoke.
Over on FB a guy Dylan Wern said a riff I want to store here. "This is part of what I would have in a "closing argument" against Trump: These are essentially quotes from the Declaration of Independence and are about King George III, but you could apply them to Trump as well.
1. He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
2. He has made judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
3. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws ...
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury.
4.For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments.
5. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
6. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us ....
The point is that Trump does not share the morals and ethics of the Founding Fathers and is a traitor to what they stood for. It should be clear that he wants to rule America like a king or a dictator and that is obviously antithetical to the values that this country was founded on.
Gems found in the founding docs. Like I keep raisinf the 6th amendment
I think this might provoke some discussion here: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/musk-and-bezos-offer-humanity-a-grim-future-in-space-colonies/
This is the main reason I think there should be no billionaires. Too much unaccountable power to be trusted to a single individual.
Should point out that Sam Houston wasn't listened to in 1860 either. George Thomas pointed out to his fellow Virginian officers that what they were planning was treason, and they wondered if he was in the right state. He took the next train north.
Pappenheimer
Unsubscribing from the WA Post but it's going to be a hard slog getting my wife to unsubscribe from Amazon, Bezos' moneymaker.
Pappenheimer
P.S. Reason makes the same point a lot of us here do - billies distort the socioeconomic field - a lot like too much mass in one place causes a singularity, drawing in even more matter ($) and warping the space around it.
Privately owned space colonies are more likely to be totalitarian nightmares than libertarian utopias
See, that's just the thing. One man's libertarian utopia is a totalitarian nightmare for everyone else.
I mean, 1984 is a utopia for certain people at the top.
Gnashers of teeth to the contrary, the point of unsubscribing from the Washington Post isn't to directly hit Bezos in the pocketbook. It's a recognition that if the oligarchs who fear Trump decide what gets printed and what doesn't, then there's no way to trust that what gets printed is anything other than propaganda.
Electroal-Vote.com has the right of it. (Sadly, Stephanie Miller does not)
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Oct29-4.html
Indeed, as far as "integrity" goes, Bezos did about as much damage on that front as is humanly possible. Now, with very good reason, it looks like the line between "business" and "editorial" (and there's no more important line in the newspaper business) does not exist at the Post, and the money men (well, money man) will dictate coverage decisions from here on out. After all, the money man just did that very thing. How can a reader have confidence in any future stories about Trump OR Harris, not to mention myriad other subjects? If the Post writes a story critical of Wal-Mart, is that on the level, or is it really just a press release for Amazon? If the Post has a negative report on SpaceX, is it a legit news story, or is it really just a press release for Blue Origin?
Point being, unsubscribing from the Post is more relevant than unsubscribing from Amazon. It's not about punishing Bezos. It's about not trusting the integrity of the paper. Literally not buying what they're selling.
I think you both (and the opinion piece writer) are missing an important point.
"Why the f@$k would the colonists/settlers put up with it?"
History is peppered with rebellions of all sorts ranging from nobles who dislike their king to peasants who dislike them all. A belief that our ancestors meekly coped with imposed nightmares isn't supported by evidence.
THEY might create a nightmare settlement, but the most likely outcome that occurs when they don't figure out how to get along is they all die and the rich dude loses his investment.
I don't understand why so many expect they'd all be sheep ready to obey a shepard.
We will likely do what we've done before.
"Privately owned space colonies are more likely to be totalitarian nightmares than libertarian utopias..."
See Wil McCarthy's RICH MAN'S SKY/
GEO THOMAS The Rock of Chickamauga. Not only had the traitor confed officers taken oaths to the USA FAR more often than to their states, but the Declar of Independence makes very clear you can only break oaths when you have 1st tried hard to negotiate and were utterly refused reason... and the south sent ZERO delegations to negotiate with Lincoln.
The most important part of the great unsubscribing is not the $ it costs the billionaires - it is the press attention that the action gets.
Bezos' largest source of funding comes from Amazon Web Services, not Amazon sales. You are not going to hurt his bottom line one whit by unsubscribing from the Post or Prime, not even if 200k people do the same.
But, boy oh boy, do billionaires *hate* the public noticing their actions.
The drop in subscribers is reported on for multiple news cycles because the only thing that newspapers like reporting on more than access politics is bad news to other papers or sites. It's catnip to editors, and for that reason, unsubscribing is working as a protest action.
@Alfred, I think we're suspicious that people will be lured into joining up with wonderful promises and then stuck in a situation from which there is no recourse and no escape.
I only recently subscribed to the Post because I was getting tired of the Trump-friendly coverage in the New York Times. But for all that, the tone of Times op-eds comes from the columnists and writers themselves, not a mandate from above. So I joined in with the unsubscribers, not because they didn't endorse Kamala, but because that non-endorsement was forced on the editorial board by the owner. For reasons described above by an excerpt from Electoral-Vote.com
@Larry, Sensible. That likely WILL happen... except the no escape part. It will look like 'no easy escape' and no doubt feel like coercion instead.
It's just that the likely response will suck for billionaire investors. Mars return trajectories open only every couple of years. A lot of good things have to happen in the window or the investors get diddly squat. Futures markets are ALL about timing a price point.
The closest nightmare scenario I would expect to be tolerated will involve feeding happy drugs to the settlers shortly before the window opens to ensure complacency. There in a libertarian utopia idea in there (that isn't really a utopia), but it involves sex orgies more than whip cracking of slaves. Huxley rather than Orwell. 8)
I can see them on my phone, not not currently my computer. Weird. Bezos' lame excuses have over 24K comments, and very few of them are supporting him.
Bernie also talks sense on Middle East issues:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf5MThSniiY
I swear that I didn't want to talk about this jerk anymore, but this is particularly egregious:
https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/elon-musk-trump-hardship-austerity-taxes-rcna177732?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
So little lord Elon is enamored of Argentinian style austerity measures now? There is no limit to the contempt and loathing I have for someone who will never know food insecurity or worry about having a roof over his head being so willing top push hardship on people living hand to mouth. I so wish I could impose a Nathan Brazil style punishment on such arrogant callousness. But let's hear the Musk fanboys spin this; it could be amusing.
For me, the issue is not whether Musk is horrible - he certainly is. The issue is whether this was destiny or whether this was Victor Frankenstein level prideful delusion.
"You created Sato, and thousands like him." - BLACK RAIN (1989)
Musk is horrible - OK
But he has ACHIEVED more than anybody else this century for the good of all mankind
IMHO that is the important thing
Or would you rather that Ukraine had fallen in 2022
and the USA was still using Russia for its launches
And Electric cars were still hair shirt specials for tree huggers
And battery storage was still so expensive that Wind and Solar were uncompetitive
If the worse happens and the Orange Cockwomble does get elected - then Musk would only be 0.001% responsible
99.999% would be the American people
Alfred,
You're right that wise investors will treat their indentured servants, sorry, vital workforce, well if they want to see a profit. But we are talking about Dilbert Stark here. (h/t to Stross.) People have been ignoring the Confucian advice to treat your workforce like humans since a few seconds after he wrote it down in beautiful calligraphy.
There will be 2 kinds of people signing up for Mars - the science people and the corporate workers. (This is assuming there is anything on Mars worth sending workers FOR; there will certainly be research stations, given enough time and lack of global catastrophe on Earth.) If Elon ships a sizable workforce to Mars I'm sure he will revel in the fact that the nearest OSHA inspector will be between 40 and 250 million miles away, and the results may not be pretty. You can't shut the air off in most corporate towns. Heck, that was in that movie with Arnie! Will he also ship an armed security force? Do thoats poop in the desert? I'm sure someone is designing a nifty uniform right now....
SF writers have been considering Martian revolutions since at least Heinlein, and - given their druthers - the doughty, daring rebels usually win.
Successful slave or peasant revolts are unicorns among the equine herd of the ones that were crushed mercilessly, though. Consider the Fronde, or the Rising of the Moon*
*Did not take place on the Moon.
Pappenheimer
The problem with Musk is that, over the last few years, he's gone down the "longtermism" rabbit hole. Sabine Hossenfelder posted a video on the matter a couple years ago:
http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2022/10/
He's convinced himself that our highest priority should be setting up off-world colonies (particularly, colonizing Mars) and that all other considerations are inconsequential in comparison. Given that, I suspect he's concluded that democracies will never vote for the degree of sacrifice necessary to achieve that goal. So, he's allying with authoritarians to pursue it. And he's been quite explicit on the matter. He wears a "Mars or bust" shirt to his rallies. He's stated that "If there isn't a Trump victory/red wave we'll never get to Mars"...
He also has a nearly Trumpian level of ego. I recall a comment by someone elsewhere (I don't remember who) that Musk "dearly wants the human race to be saved but only if he's the one to save it." That may be a bit hyperbolic but I suspect he's convinced himself that he's the one person who's best suited for that mission (or, most capable of achieving that goal).
So, although he's done a lot of good in the past, his current obsession, amplified by his resources is proving counterproductive.
Pappenheimer
I'm a strong union guy - I was "Corresponding Member" for my union back in the 80's
There is only ONE way of avoiding a union that I would not be incredibly hostile about
And that is the method chosen by Musk
Have pay and conditions so good that the workers don't want a union
CP
If Musk has convinced himself that Humanity needs to be a multiplanet species - then I would agree
"most capable of achieving that goal"
On current showing- its Musk!!
The number two person in that race is - nobody knows! - there is nobody with the ability, the money and that as a goal
As far as Trump is concerned
I just hope that Musk continues to use the "Super Power" that distinguishes him from all of the other CEOs - the ability to see that he was wrong and reverse path
Pappenheimer,
People have been ignoring the Confucian advice to treat your workforce like humans since a few seconds after he wrote it down in beautiful calligraphy.
Heh. True. Kinda.
Except for a recent trend… that applies more broadly than at SpaceX… but I'll pick on SpaceX to make the point.*
1) At present, SpaceX employs about 13,000 people. Guess at an average fully loaded cost for one near $130K and you get a cost of labor near $1.7B/yr. They are still hiring, so that is a growing number.
2) Add on to that the costs associated with their giant R&D effort in TX and you get a terrific outflow of cash.
3) No matter what Musk says about not needing to raise money, they have in fact been raising money.
4) Not long ago, Boeing was courting Shotwell and people who track these things are pretty sure Musk sold some Tesla shares shortly before she announced she wasn't going anywhere. Add two and two to get… WHO do you think is actually running the show over there?
———
I get that some will put up with hardships to avoid changing jobs. Terrible bosses abound. The fraction of us who do, however, is NOT 100%. Confucian advice might get ignored, but the costs associated with talent bleeds do not. Shotwell isn't the only one who makes him pay for her apparently competent support. Others do too… and we can test this by examining the quit rate at SpaceX.
Do we examine those numbers before calling upon the horrors described in some science fiction stories? SpaceX DOES burn through many of its people and is well known for how many of them depart within two years and the 'culling' that happens to low performers. We saw Musk do this at Twitter too with a much larger and public culling. Stressful stuff, right? Terrible boss, right? No. Not really. Selective boss… yes. One few want to work for, yes. Yet… people flock there to hire on.
The kind of people who manage to hang on to jobs over there are tough SOB's. They are NOT the kind of souls who will cope sheepishly when the boss abuses them. Neither are they the kinds who will likely agree with the rest of us what CONSTITUTES abuse.
So, no. If he sends his current workforce to Mars, he's like to fill a colony with feisty people who can manage to work for someone like him… through the filter that Shotwell provides.
———
* Similar analysis can be done on other companies and I encourage people to get specific BEFORE turning to old science fiction stories and fretting about the horrors they portray. We should know those stories, but we must also look at the evidence to see if they ACTUALLY apply.
CP,
He's been thinking long term pretty much since he was kicked out of PayPal.
Just look at what he did with the money from that sale.
———
The other day I watched an exchange on Twitter where someone argued he should be ending poverty. His comeback was essentially "Show me how to do it in a way I can believe my money isn't wasted… and I'll do it." A lot of folks blew that off as a kind of non-response, but anyone who has paid attention to him a while knows better.
He IS willing to work at making the world a better place, but he won't put up with sh*t from people who won't try themselves… with their own hands and money.
Passing a problem to government doesn't count… and a lot of us mostly agree. As a kid I was sold on the idea that we'd be flying to the Moon now much like we can fly between cities on big jets. Didn't happen even though we threw oodles of money at it. NASA got captured by industry somewhere along the way and that money mostly gets used to run jobs programs that ensure votes for many on Congress. NASA did accomplish some amazing stuff, but barring more miraculous medicine*, I'll be dead before the vision sold to me as a kid materializes.
He's convinced himself that our highest priority should be setting up off-world colonies (particularly, colonizing Mars) and that all other considerations are inconsequential in comparison.
Probably right, but that's not unusual for people. We all prioritize our own interests and label the rest as inconsequential… to us. This is ultimately why central planning doesn't work. We simply don't agree on what's important. Well… maybe occasionally we do on a few narrow topics.
He also has a nearly Trumpian level of ego.
No doubt about that. He DOES imagine that he and what he does is necessary for saving humanity.
So? He's guilty of the vice of Pride. Maybe a few others too.
So? Don't teach our kids to emulate him in that regard.
Use him as a counter example. Modern Scrooge but with a different vice.
——————
* I'm not being cynical here. I'm already a survivor of cancer and an auto-immune disorder. Both would have killed my ancestors is grisly, miserable ways. I might survive the next battle too, whatever it turns out to be, but I'm not a cat with nine lives. I'm already on #4, so I'm pushing my luck.
P.S. Reason makes the same point a lot of us here do - billies distort the socioeconomic field - a lot like too much mass in one place causes a singularity, drawing in even more matter ($) and warping the space around it.
Wealth has a gravitational force of it's own? Makes sense.
This is ultimately why central planning doesn't work.
A friend once said to me: "Communism works for ants, not humans."
But, maybe, we are one the verge of creating the species that could make it work for us.
When my grandparents and their peers left Europe for America in the early 20th century, they expected the one-way trip that it was. They were not shuttling back and forth between continents. They came to America and planted their flag, never to return.
In the colonial age, it was the same for people who went west from New York or Philadelphia to the frontier, which at that time was east of Ohio. What is now a morning's drive on a turnpike was a one-way, one-time trek.
Point being, if humanity expands to other planets, for at least some amount of time, the people who go there will be going for good. They will essentially become Martians or Titanians or whatever. Sure, further down the line there will be twice-daily shuttles to and from earth and day trips to the moon and stuff like that. But that won't happen right away. The first colonists, if they are not to be slaves, will have to be people who have an individual incentive to leave Earth behind.
I'm not sure that I understand Musk's approach to his Mars colony fantasy. It doesn't seem a realistic way to go about it in my viewpoint. Before you could even consider such massive transfers of people and materials and Mars, you are going to need orbiting base stations. He seems to think we can just get there, and THEN first think "now what".
Malcolm Nance asks for this to be shared (without paywall). So I'm sharing.
https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/kneel-pray-win-we-have-orders-from
...
The [cemetery] groundskeeping staff there know who I am. I am the guy who hugs the white stone as if his wife stood before him. I must cut a sad spectacle, talking to, kissing, and hugging the granite, but it always feels right. I did not have time to bring flowers, but I brought myself and was sure that would be enough for her. We always talk … it is usually a one-way conversation, but her responses sometimes reach me in my dreams.
I told her the nation was in trouble and did not know what would come. I asked her for help. I joked that anyone she could talk to in heaven should feel free to intervene and rapido. I laughed at the image of her asking God to ensure the success of an election, but this time, it was not a joke. When I leave her, I am usually too bereaved to do anything but cry in the car until I compose myself. But this time, I was moved by an unexplainable force to walk over to the statue of General George Washington.
The Washington statue graces the north side of the beautiful green grounds. He is a dark gray figure, literally larger than life. As he was the night before his dangerous gamble, on a freezing Christmas night, the General is on one knee in perpetual silent prayer. His hands are tightly clasped together in deep reverence to God, and his head is bowed. This giant man was positioned by the designers to face and to pray over the graves of those who gave their lives to the nation. It is a humbling sight to behold.
Suddenly overwhelmed with emotion, I was moved to pray alongside him.
...
Saw a pic on the news:
Save the GOP
Vote Harris
The first colonists, if they are not to be slaves, will have to be people who have an individual incentive to leave Earth behind.
"For pushing the "like" button on a post that insults Our Dear Leader, we sentence you to 211 years of labor in a prison colony on Mars."
I came across this cool little video on Brandolini's Principle (though it never uses the name) that would be a good thing to show to people who are a little too certain about what they "know."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgo7rm5Maqg
Paul SB
ERM is still very far from breakeven on the Good deeds vs Bad ratio. Tho he seems determined to press his thumbs hard on the balance scales on the Bad side, right now (and I still believe a major motive on this is to ‘show’ the sanctimony junkies who spat in his face). Still, rescuing him from that maniacal cult – by smashing the cult at Appomattox (my new term for the election) is among my many reasons to fight every single day.
I just realized… AMERICAN PIE is very similar in style to the Book of Revelation. Had he quadrupled its length with apocalyptic battles, maybe he’d be Saint Don the Divine!
“Not long ago, Boeing was courting Shotwell and people who track these things are pretty sure Musk sold some Tesla shares shortly before she announced she wasn't going anywhere. Add two and two”. Um, duh? The Falcon 9 is the workhorse that feeds humungous cash flow (along with NASA contracts) into both Starship and Starlink, which may in turn become highly profitable. But those shorting Tesla have also gone belly up. So far.
“Neither are they the kinds who will likely agree with the rest of us what CONSTITUTES abuse.” Exactly. The sense of mission over there is similar to military guys in a war.
“Passing a problem to government doesn't count…”
Markets, governments and rich-guy whim are very different investment models. Govts handle:
1.Ongoing unprofitable infrastructure/services that everyone takes for granted… streets, defense etc.
2. Consensus-agreed pursuits that markets can’t handle and richdudes won’t, either because they are outside business/investor ROI horizons or way too expensive even for the richest.
MARKETS are supposed to handle things with potentially profitable ROI (return on Investment) over a short scale to maybe 15 years… a horizon that cheaters have kept shrinking through parasitism down to (currently) 3 months.
RICHDUDE whim used to make pyramids. More recently it funded nearly all science. And art collecting and university buildings. Incentivized by public esteem, it now includes some major philanthropy. Build 100 schools or 1000 village wells in Africa? Check. Slay the Guinea worm, check.
End poverty? Are you freaking kidding me?
“But, maybe, we are one the verge of creating the species that could make it work for us.” Again… socialism for kids and as a floor to help marklet losers (the poor) stand up and try again. Adam Smith. Competition only works when it is fair and relatively flat. But when it works…
“I'm not sure that I understand Musk's approach to his Mars colony fantasy.”
It can’t work till 1. There are inflated domes already in place next to an ISRU plant that has already converted tone of local ice into both water and rocket fuel… ideally next to a lava tube cavern. 2. A similar ISRU plant and dome is perfected on Phobos. 3. Nuclear thermal rockets can send several ‘starships’ vastly faster than Elon’s refueled methane Rube Goldbergs. 4. Spectacular recycling systems to re-use consumables. 5. A dozen other keystone techs.
Dr Brin:
I just realized… AMERICAN PIE is very similar in style to the Book of Revelation. Had he quadrupled its length with apocalyptic battles, maybe he’d be Saint Don the Divine!
"Well for ten years..." was literal, from the 1959 death of Buddy Holly to the 1969 Altamont concert. The first was described in the intro, and the latter in the verse about (Mick Jagger, aka Jumping) Jack Flash sitting on a candlestick.
This reminds me of another character from 'classic' sci-fi: Kodos the Executioner from *The Conscience of the King*, a Star Trek episode. When a famine struck his planet, he killed off half the population to save the other half, implementing his own eugenics program. Who's to say if a catastrophe strikes a MuskMars colony, Elmo won't go the same route if he's in charge.
Apocemon meets the Arockalypse?
Maybe pitch it to Mr Farley as a joint graphic novel? Get those space guitars in the act? The sad trombone, even! (Sorry folks iykyk)
Musk appears happy to spout the standard vintage bs about the need for the economic suffering of the masses for the benefit of the few.
Well, maybe he will or won't be the root cause of a potential cockwombalypse, but he won't be getting to Mars that way.
I was thinking that we could send the Golgafrinchan B-Ark to Mars. That might work better than the Rapture.
Musk appears happy to spout the standard vintage bs about the need for the economic suffering of the masses for the benefit of the few
Is he? - I have never heard that from him!
And he (his companies) are busy working to spread the benefits of his technology as widespread as possible
Take electric cars - Musk understood several things
(1) Electric Cars need to be "Sexy"
(2) You always START at the top! - provide expensive cars for the rich and then work your way down the market
StarLink is providing internet for the rural masses - who are poorer than the urban people
@Duncan I regret to say that he most certainly is
Musk’s words make it clear that the disruption is not an unintended side effect but an accepted—if not desired—outcome. The billionaire went further by responding to an X (formerly Twitter) user who anticipated a market downturn if Trump’s aggressive policies, including mass deportations and extreme deficit cuts, were enacted. The user predicted that with Trump and Musk in charge, the U.S. economy—dependent on debt and vulnerable to asset bubbles—would face a severe reaction before stabilizing under the intended austerity. Musk’s response was a simple acknowledgment: “Sounds about right.”
And yet, people say they're voting for Trump because they miss $2 gas and they hate inflation? Nonsense. They're voting for Trump because he hates who they hate, and anything else he does is hunky dory with them.
Oh, and just so everyone knows where I stand on "Biden said Trump supporters were garbage". He was right. And yes, that's no way to convince them to vote for Kamala, but come on! Like that was in the cards anyway.
Ugh. Too many tried pushing for that change in the 20th century.
I'd rather we remained human to avoid killing tens of millions of us. Again.
Agreed regarding the humans who traveled.
However, colonies are usually created to make money. That doesn't happen unless the colony can trade with the homeland. The people who came to the English colonies might have mostly stayed, but their goods did not. Trade with the homeland HAD to occur, so there WAS a path back if necessary... or a path elsewhere.
Colonizing Mars will NOT happen unless there is a way to trade back and forth. Whatever comes back has to make financial sense, of course, but the plan envisioned at SpaceX (for now) involves exactly the same kind of ship coming back as went in the first place. That means options for return will exist.
reason,
I'm not sure that I understand Musk's approach to his Mars colony fantasy. It doesn't seem a realistic way to go about it in my viewpoint.(snip)
It isn't. I agree. It can't be realistic. Yet.
I've been involved in these kinds of space startups. The primary fuel involved is hope. They all have a vision in mind and then try to figure out how to make it happen.
Same thing is happening at SpaceX. They don't have to know how to settle Mars. They have to believe in the goal and then work out the problems along the way. Only those of us on the outside look at a founding vision as if it is a plan.
———
SpaceX is going to need all sorts of things figure out to make Mars work and Musk's vision moderately close to real. Maybe they won't make it all the way there without changing something huge.
I don't really care because in the effort to make the vision true, they are SOLVING problems many of us who came before failed to defeat.
1. Many of us knew cheap access to space (CATS) would change everything. I was part of a prize effort in the late 90's (before X Prize) that tried to help make it happen. We didn't know who the customers would be, though. We guessed… and talked a lot about it… but we didn't know. My guess was taken from transport industry pricing evidence which suggested the customer would find the provider.
Bzzt! I was wrong. SpaceX created a spinoff customer instead.
2. At activist conferences (among those of us who abandoned NASA and the defense contractors of implementers of the vision) we used to debate whether it made sense to aim at the Moon, Mars, or asteroids to open the frontier. For some it was kind of a religious war. (See also Zubrin). My guess was asteroids, but I eventually came to understand that it didn't matter. Trade mattered. We had to go where trade possibilities made sense because Science motives would just create another Antarctic-style colony. Not good enough.
I still think I'm right, but it was a Mars guy with a lot of money who made CATS happen. Bezos seems to be an asteroids guy, but I don't care at this point. What we really need next is to fill cis-lunar space with commercial activity. I don't give a fig what form it takes.
3. At one of the startups I supported, the founder was more interested in Venus. Think cloud-top colonies. They still get talked about, though I don't think they'll happen this century. I didn't buy into that vision because I had one of my own, but his vision and mine ran parallel for long enough that I didn't need to raise the issues I foresaw.
Turned out there were other issues neither of us foresaw, but the liquid propulsion hobby folks who morphed into big propulsion engineers made it all moot. No one should be debating SSTO or space-planes anymore. The start-up I was with DID correctly anticipate that SSTO wasn't the way forward, but our first stage turned out to be (essentially) a non-starter.
———
As long as start-ups are solving problems and have enough $$ to make payroll, we really don't have to worry about them. Just sit back. Unless they are hurting other people, we can afford to let them try to break open the next frontier. Don't worry about the egos either because chasing visions of a brighter future are actually good uses for giant egos.
Heh. Agreed on all that stuff that has to happen before Mars colonies make sense. I suspect it all will happen faster than many imagine it could, but I'm certain it won't happen at the pace ERM imagines. He's a little starry-eyed when it comes to schedules.
As for the methane-fueled Rube Goldbergs, I used to feel the same way. No doubt nuclear thermal has to happen, but those RG.v3 engines are looking pretty good. Did you see the video from a few days ago of them restarting one about 40 times in quick succession? Engine starts and stops are terrible sources of shocks, so they are obviously trying to break them now before they produce them by the thousands.
———
The 'end poverty' comment was by someone at least semi-famous (I think) who disagreed with some recent way ERM spent money. I think it involved $6B. You see the same kind of comments when someone argues that a few billion from the DoD budget could end such-and-such problem. His comeback was 'Show me how?' and was easily read as calling their bluff. Someone pursuing a sanctimony hit was invited to do something rational. Not exactly demanding a wager, but it is tangent.
I didn't bother much with the thread, though. I'd rather ERM not try to end world poverty. We shall manage that problem ourselves while he plays his guitar for us.
And yet, people say they're voting for Trump because they miss $2 gas and they hate inflation? Nonsense. They're voting for Trump because he hates who they hate, and anything else he does is hunky dory with rethem.
And when, not if, hard economic consequences hit them, there is always another group of scapegoats they will come up with.
If they care at all and don't just kill or imprison dissident voices, that is.
I suspect the technologies required to not immediately die on Mars will have application here, especially water & food recycling, given our bad habit of keeping tech that overruns the capacity of Gaia to process the byproduct. The weather is capricious enough without excess energy in the atmosphere. Ersatz reprocessed food beats starvation when crops fail.
Alfred Differ: They have to believe in the goal and then work out the problems along the way.
It's eerie how similar the ages of exploration are. To see the shape of things to come, just study the ways it was done before. Trade, technology, instinct, and most importantly psychology are ersatz* forms of destiny.
* proof that I do indeed read Brin novels
As far as I can tell, "Drumph!" has little in the way of original thought, he is a void that others may fill, and has allowed his self to be filled with questionable ideas. He is certainly fascist-adjacent and one is known by the company one keeps.
Again… socialism for kids and as a floor to help marklet losers (the poor) stand up and try again. Adam Smith. Competition only works when it is fair and relatively flat. But when it works…
"Citizen, taxes for your proceeds from your Swiss Banking accounts have been collected. If you disagree with my decision, you can appeal it within the next three months at your nearest court."
"Citizen, you just received payments from an account flagged as having been used for hostile influence operations in the past. I have to inform you that I have notified the authorities for a possible violation of The espionage act.The sum of $ 100.000 was frozen and will be donated to randomly chosen welfare organizations. If you disagree with my decision..."
"Ladies and Gentlemen, due to successful complaints against your financial institute and violations of international sanctions, we, the council of financial enterprises verification entities (COFEVE) have hereby stopped all of your financial interactions and severed your connection from the Global Financial Network. We also have determined a fine of $ 23.45 billion, to be added to your next tax collection. If you disagree with our decision...."
Trade mattered. We had to go where trade possibilities made sense because Science motives would just create another Antarctic-style colony. Not good enough.
Part of the fun in the Traveller game of yore was figuring out why a lifeless rock was a power house inhabited by billions, while the earth-like paradise next door was practically devoid of human civilization.
It often came back to the economy.
The supreme court doesn't care how much they suck at their job. Emphasis mine.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Oct31-3.html
While we are on the subject of last-minute election changes, the Virginia decision [to purge voter rolls five days before the election] is not the only one of them. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court rejected an emergency appeal from Robert Kennedy Jr. to get off the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin, which he had fought bitterly to get ON a few months ago. But that was when he thought his presence would hurt Joe Biden. Now he thinks it will hurt Donald Trump. That makes all the difference.
Both Michigan and Wisconsin said it would be impossible to remove Kennedy now. Early voting has started and millions of ballots have been printed and mailed out already. In fact, in Michigan, 1.5 million ballots have already been returned and another 264,000 people have already voted in person. Having some voters get one list of candidates and other voters get a different list of candidates would tie the courts in knots after the election—not that printing and distributing new ballots before Tuesday would have been feasible. It would be been chaos to even try.
In an unsigned order, the Supreme Court turned down Kennedy's request. However, Justice Neil Gorsuch dissented. Was he expecting Michigan to go to FedEx Office and have them produce over 5 million new ballots by Friday and then get them distributed by Tuesday? What about people who already cast a ballot? Would all those votes be burned and people told to show up on Tuesday to vote in person? This is beyond despicable and shows that some justices will do to help the Republican Party any way they can. Remember, what Kennedy wanted was unambiguously illegal. He wanted to get off the ballot after the deadline for getting off the ballot had passed. He had zero legal case. He just found the law inconvenient. Gorsuch felt that was good enough.
Of course we don't know how many votes Kennedy will get and who the voters would have chosen had his name not been on the ballot. If the people doing the exit polls on Tuesday ask every Kennedy voter: "If Kennedy had not been on the ballot, who would you have voted for?" then we might know, otherwise, we will probably never really know.
“The salient fact of American politics is that there are fifty to seventy million voters each of who will volunteer to live, with his family, in a cardboard box under an overpass, and cook sparrows on an old curtain rod, if someone would only guarantee that the black, gay, Hispanic, liberal, whatever, in the next box over doesn't even have a curtain rod, or a sparrow to put on it."-Davis X Machina at Balloon Juice
There are a lot of mean and stupid people in this country.
WTF is supposed to be the "fallout" from Biden's "garbage" remark? MAGAts will be so offended that they won't vote for Harris?
"How could it be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!"
“Calm down, MAGA, it's called the ‘Biden weave.’ quipped Alex Cole on Twitter. “It's genius, so ‘F*ck your feelings.’"
Maybe endorsements don't matter, but uncharacteristic non-endorsements do:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/media/trump-washington-post-los-angeles-times-endorsement/index.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Speaking at a rally in North Carolina, Trump claimed Wednesday that the papers’ non-endorsements are actually a stamp of approval for his campaign.
“The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times, and all these papers. They’re not endorsing anybody. You know what they’re really saying - because they only endorse Democrats - they’re saying this Democrat’s no good. They’re no good. And they think I’m doing a great job. They just don’t want to say it,” he said.
Rather liked this opinion, set to music:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=YY_8WzcHqMQ&si=hwFhhbdxoXJrsxA_
"Ladies and Gentlemen, due to successful complaints against your financial institute..." How dare you, Der Oger, limit it to two archaic, sex based classiications?? Deeply offended.
Tim thanks for that terrific link
Bezo's other businesses, especially his cloud computing business offer a lot of attack surface for a vengeful cretin.
My own estimate is that Harris will win the popular vote quite handily, perhaps by 12 million votes. I base that on the large gender gap in new voter registrations, a 55-45 split for women. The high early voting rate (about 60 million votes as of yesterday) is also indicative.
She should win the electoral vote by a comfortable margin, state-level shenanigans notwithstanding.
What I'm less confident about is if this will translate to a blue wave at the Congressional level. I think the Dems will take the House by a small margin, but I'm not sure they can keep the Senate.
Der Oger,
Of course, the planet creation rules in Traveller often resulted in some...extreme...discontinuities. I always assumed that the 'fallow' habitable planets were either owned outright by Trillion Credit Nobles and used as holiday excursion areas, or home to some horrible, ineradicable disease or creature that made humans turn inside out and then explode. Red Zones.
Pappenheimer
P.S. just read the news that VW is planning on closing 10+ manufacturing plants in Germany itself. I suppose they'll save money by moving the jobs to Poland or Mississippi, but the unions are seriously ticked off. Would this benefit any particular German party, or will it be a 'pox on all your houses' situation?
Look up the Brooks Brothers Riot that gave the Bushite Supreme Court the excuse to hand the 2000 election to Bush. Later face recog IDd the rioters as paid Bush campaign factotums. Anyone got a link?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/31/business/economy/inflation-prices-economy.html
...
This could clearly be an economy election — but a complicated one, as inflation cools, growth remains solid and Americans, nevertheless, remain unconvinced.
My translation: The economy was an excuse to vote Republican while the economy was bad. Now that the economy is good, voters will find another excuse to vote the same way.
Easy prediction: If prices continue not to fall, let alone to rise, under a Trump administration, those same voters will find some other criteria to use as to why Trump is better than Harris would have been.
Would this benefit any particular German party, or will it be a 'pox on all your houses' situation?
First, I would say that this is part of an ongoing poker game to "save" those jobs by tax Money. VW paid a sizeable dividend to it's shareholders earlier this year.
Also note that the state of Lower Saxony, currently ruled by Social Democrats and the Greens, is one of these major shareholders, holding 20% of the Stock.
That out of the way, I believe that the fringes - the fascist AfD and the newly formed
BSW would profit most If the worst did actually happen.
The Social Democrats could score points If the jobs are saved, the conservatives if not.
Maybe the Greens might recover If they have some luck and skill, but I am sceptical, they might be the losers of this affair.
(One should note that Robert Habeck, current Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economics, started in 2019 that VW must adapt to the EV market or will go broke. VW chose Not to adapt.)
And the libertarian FDP (Friends of Da Plutocrats)? Well, I believe nothing they do or say will save them from being voted out of the next Bundestag.
How dare you, Der Oger, limit it to two archaic, sex based classiications?? Deeply offended.
That one is easy. There are few people who work at criminal banks who take offenes in not using inclusive language, and a much higher rate of people who do If one used it.
So the COFEVE just was polite, addressing their readers in a way gorillas in suits on cocaine can understand them...
Also, many find a demagogue to be entertaining, as every day in Mar-a-Lago is Halloween.
People act out roles in films; actors—such as Clint Eastwood— fulfill their need for bravado...
“You mess with my action, and I’ll pulverize every last bitty chunk of you. Make my day.”
—
This demagogic-entertainer role by Andy Griffith was a precursor to ‘Network’:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3RO3mtyHwz0
Dearly deeply offended, there *are* only two sex based classifications, based on gamete size.
What *is* archaic is the ongoing conflation of sex (biological) with gender (identity).
Signed, someone in a onesie fort, seeking to lighten the mood with something else to grumble about. (Actually, the one with the real fur coat is pointing out that it's walkies time, so...later)
Here is a where are they now Washington post article from 2005.
https://web.archive.org/web/20080724155012/https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31074-2005Jan23.html
But he has ACHIEVED more than anybody else this century for the good of all mankind
You could make comparisons to Henry Ford, brilliant industrialist and rabid antisemite
Almost forgot: Happy Halloween!
If Republicans are elected, I'm sure they'll make Halloween illegal.
Jan Böhmermann (Comedian/Investigative Journalist/Hate Subject of the German Right/Last person to trigger our lèse-majesté paragraph before it got hastily abolished ) routinely starts his show with "Ladies and Gentlemen, everyone between and outside of it..."
If Republicans are elected, I'm sure they'll make Halloween illegal.
One more reason to celebrate it joyfully. Because it could be the last.
Larry Hart: because we'd dress as them.
Speaking of Halloween joy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBRHCprwbzw
It shall be celebrated in secret, masquerading as the RNC (a bit like Christmas in Mithras during Roman times). While some faun upon Dear Leader, others will be treating another great orange one.
Is there some way we can have UN monitors watching our election?
Seriously.
Larry,
They should be already here:
"As a member of the organization (OSCE), the US is obligated to invite international election observers by a 1990 agreement. Observers first came to the US in 2002, as a result of the Bush v. Gore presidential election’s complications in 2000."
https://www.passblue.com/2020/10/07/international-election-monitors-arrive-in-the-us-for-the-nov-3-poll/
Pappenheimer
I think this was raised and covered in 2020, by ... Jimmy Carter?
Anyway, as I recall, the explanation was that covering the vagaries of fifty independent voting bodies was beyond the UN's capacity.
Der Oger, I sometimes think the FDP joined the government coalition in order to destroy the other parties in the coalition. It is a tragedy (especially for the greens who are regularly blamed for things that are the doing of the FDP), that the Linke failed ti get 5% at the last election.
Right
We have a habitat (even number of starships spinning on tethers) in Mars orbit
We have throwing machines on Phobos/Deimos supplying raw materials
We have lots of mirrors and solar panels providing lots of solar power
How do we turn this into a business??
We need to be able to ship material - raw and processed - from here to Earth orbit where it can be used by the stations in earth orbit or even back on earth
The "Competition" - Starships is between $10 and $30 per kg
What is the cheapest way to "ship" from Mars orbit to Earth orbit - 4km/sec
I'm thinking centrifugal throwers - at least two so they can rotate in opposite directions
SpinLaunch is talking about 2 km/sec - and that on earth with gravity and having to have a vacuum!
Lets up the ante a bit - 6km/sec
6 km/sec would require a mass ratio of about 5
We use the material from Deimos/Phobos - put the good stuff to one side and turn the rest into balls - say 1kg each
We are throwing them at 6km/sec - so 18 million Joules per ball
Lets have 3000 tons of vehicle and payload -
15,000 tons of balls to throw - at 180,000 million Joules per ton -
a total energy of 270,000 Mega Joules
We take 4 weeks to accelerate - call it two million seconds -
so we need an acceleration of 2mm/second squared
- 270,000 MegaJoules over 2 million seconds is 135 kWatts - that's not very much from our solar panels - and our solar panels don't have to resist high accelerations! 1/5,000th of a "G"
Simple "ball thrower" Four arms each 100 meters long - spinning at 600 rpm - the ends are doing our 6km/sec 15,000,000 balls - over 2 million seconds is 7.5 balls per second
Two four armed ball throwers - (need two to react against each other) - so each arm is fed with one ball every 10.67 seconds
The balls roll to the end of the arms and are released at the correct time
Centrifugal force - That gives 36 tons centrifugal force from each ball at the end of the arm - sounds doable
A "Dirt Powered" rocket!
"The Five Sexes" for your reading pleasure:
https://danielwharris.com/teaching/360/readings/FaustoSterling.pdf
And "The Five Sexes, Revisited":
https://www2.kobe-u.ac.jp/~alexroni/IPD%202016%20readings/IPD%202016_3/FAUSTO_STERLING-2000-The_Sciences%205%20sexes%20revisited.pdf
Paul SB
OOps one ball every 1.067 seconds
In Annie Hall, there's a split-screen scene where Woody Allen's character and Diane Keaton's character are each speaking to a psychiatrist. Woody is asked how often they have sex, and he says something like, "Hardly ever. Maybe...three times a month." Diane Keaton, answering the same question says exasperatedly, "Constantly. I'd say at least three times a month!"
I'm reminded of this listening to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump doing their last minute campaigning. Kamala can say, "Donald Trump only cares about grievances and revenge," while Trump is going, "Vote for me, because only I care about your grievances and revenge!"
@Reason:
Yes, watching the Greens in the current political discourse is Like witnessing seal babies being clubbed to death. They are under fire from both the Kremlin's and western Oligarchs who wish to expand the fossile age.
Regarding Die Linke: While there would have been more reforms regarding social justice had they ended up in government, Germany would have blocked much aid to the Ukraine. In addition, Sarah Wagenknecht would have conducted her little shit show anyway - so we would have ended in a crisis and new elections. The absolute irony is that the conservatives are forced to kiss her ring now to be able to govern in the East.
@Der Oger,
In retrospect, German reunification seems to have been a mistake the same way that it was for us to let the confederate states back into the union.
My man Putin don't shiv.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Nov01-1.html
Of course, Trump is not actually after the money [bringing suit against CBS] . Consistent with the campaign of hate and fear, he's: (1) villainizing the media (and, as an added bonus, Harris), and (2) putting media outlets on notice that if they don't adopt the party line, he'll come after them with all his might if he becomes president again. We tend to doubt that it was planned, but it's certainly very interesting that there's news of Vladimir Putin engaging in similar shenanigans this week. Alphabet (Google), which owns YouTube, has blocked the Russian government and its propaganda outlets from posting their content to the site. This gave Putin the sads, so he told a Russian court to hit Alphabet with a big fine. How much? $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. That's 20 DECILLION dollars, or 180,000,000,000,000,000,000 times the entire annual economic output of the whole planet.
Too long to post, but I'd recommend reading the whole thing (no paywall).
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Nov01-1.html
...
Let us close by noting that this entire item, all 3,000 words of it, has a very sharp tone. We usually dial it back, in an effort to keep things as fair and as dispassionate as we are able. But this item isn't about political differences at all. It's not about what the correct tax rate is, or whether the government should fund lunches for children, or if marijuana should be legalized. No, this item is about human decency vs. human indecency. And so, we're not going to bite our tongue, or in ANY way imply that both sides have a point. What Trump, Vance, and their various supporters and enablers are doing right now is absolutely vile and has no place in a civil society. We would think 100% of people would agree with that, though obviously that is not the case.
I completely agree. Emphasis mine.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Nov01-5.html
Incidentally, there is an argument going around, expressed in [a] piece from Slate, among many other places, that people who want to stick it to Jeff Bezos should cancel their Amazon Prime subscription and not their Washington Post subscription. The basic point is that hurting the Washington Post, where finances are already shaky, just hurts a lot of hardworking journalists, while increasing the chances that the Post goes under.
We see the argument, but we don't buy it. First of all, Amazon employs people, too. And we're not sure that someone busting their rear end all day for something not much better than minimum wage is somehow less a concern than a reporter is. Beyond that, the Post is now deeply, and perhaps fatally, compromised. Its only real hope of coming back from this is if the billionaire owner goes away, and leadership ends up in the hand of a person or entity that is not scared of Donald Trump. In turn, the only way to communicate that is to cancel one's Post subscription. If 200,000 people bail on Amazon Prime tomorrow, nobody's even going to notice, much less interpret it as a message about The Washington Post.
So yes, it's a shame that there is some collateral damage here. But again, the good news is not only that Bezos is getting vast blowback for his choices, but also that support is flowing to other, actually independent journalists and newspapers.
I think Kohl stuffed it up, to be honest. I remember somebody commenting that the East consisted of a population of renters and employees. The population had hardly any assets. It was outrageous to allow the mostly Western owners to reclaim their property from before the war, that they had played no role in maintaining.
Der Oger, the Wagenknecht faktion in the Linke was only a fraction of the party and the CDU would have supported aid to Ukraine, so I don't think you are right that.
Missile to Moscow?:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/01/ukraine-war-ballistic-missile-hrim-2-putin-moscow-strike/
onward
to my final pitch (but one?) Help spread this one...
onward
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