I've been mentioning that the TASAT Project is now up and running! A way that the very nerdiest readers of sci fi tales from the last 100 years might someday use their story-citing powers to save the world! Drop by to learn how. Or see my blip about it at-bottom.
And another classic updated and refreshed. Not genre, but akin.....John Perlin’s newly re-issued tome is a classic. A Forest Journey: The Role of Trees in the Fate of Civilization* is a deeply-moving and persuasive elegy to the vital importance of the natural world - the groves and prairies and seas. Not as alternatives to civilization, but as the lungs and sinews and beating heart that allow us - especially our glittering cities - to stand and gaze upward.
*I cited this one in Earth.
== Sci fi updates ==
SF epic poetry! Homer may be dead but not his spirit, as the mighty literary form of poetical epics lives on. The greatest such living bard would be Frederick Turner, whose topics include Genesis: the terraforming of Mars, or the rise of Artificial Intelligence, or the genetic engineering of our organic successors.
Another: Epoch: A Poetic Psy-Phi Saga, by Dave Jilk, is science fiction in the form of an epic poem, with the first fully human-level artificial intelligence telling its own story as a sort of memoir. The book turns much of current thinking on existential AI risk on its head, and raises some uncomfortable questions about humanity even as it lauds our accomplishments.
(Another mini epic poem by Ray Bradbury and J.V. Post is in Project Solar Sail!)
And there are updated movies. Oooh. The original is fine, but... I'm okay with plans afoot to remake the fine 80s sci fi flick Enemy Mine, based on Barry Longyear’s exquisite, Hugo-winning novella, which you can find on Amazon. (What I absolutely rebel against is the remake of perfect films. I mean carumba, leave Lawrence of Arabia alone!)
Flash fiction is a lovely exercise in rapid creation on the fly. I am pleased to recommend an allegorical fairy tale about a witch and a gargoyle.
== Sci Fi Roundup! ==
The mighty Kay Kenyon has finished her wonderfully entertaining series. Now available for pre-order, book 4, Keeper of the Mythos Gate, the exciting and moving conclusion to The Arisen Worlds. Publication, September 3. If you haven't checked out the series yet, dip in with this excerpt from Book 1.
Bruce Golden’s Evergreen centers around a mysterious artifact + themes of obsession, revenge, and redemption amid timber jockeys, uncouth frontier towns, and into the heart of an awareness so alien it defies common notions of "intelligent life."
One of the fine authors I’ve mentored in my Out of Time YA series (only teens can teleport through space and time!) is Torion Oey. His latest, a fantasy novel, is The Disgraced Mage.
Tales of the United States Space Force is a new combination of science fiction stories and fact articles about – or related to - America's newest military service branch. Space is critical to the economy and our whole modern way of life, and that makes it a target. Let this volume open some eyes. And one of my classics is included.
Winter 1962. A child is discovered in the frozen Oregon woods. Mute and feral, wandering lost, naked and near death… and not entirely human. Nonesuch Man: an illustrated novel by Steven Elkins.
Two of my out-of-print novels are now re-issued with fine new covers and fresh editing. Earth came in second for a Hugo and is on every “Top Ten Predictive Novels” list you can find. (See below!)
Also Glory Season is a Silverberg/Norton-style adventure on a world where human reproduction has been channeled down wholly new paths… with one of my favorite protagonists, plucky Maia! The trade paperbacks are luscious.
Terrific covers and Open Road allowed me to insert about 80 page breaks in Earth that give this edition a really classy look and feel. Don’t miss free chapters and trailers on my website.
== Stories that predicted well? ==
I mentioned predictive tales? Well, whenever exploring new territory, you might ask the natives? What profession spends a lot of time seeking and extrapolating on 'signals from the future?"
The top 10% of near future science fiction novels generally contain riffs to portray answers to the questions: "If this goes on..." or What if...?" From John Brunner's astonishingly prophetic 1968 books Stand on Zanzibar and The Shockwave Rider to Frederik Pohl and Ursula LeGuin and Nancy Kress... to my own Earth and Existence... to Kim Stanley Robinson's The Ministry of the Future, which has proved so influential that the UN is pondering naming a new agency after it.
Start here? 8 Books That Eerily Predicted the Future.
Which circles us back around to TASAT or There's A Story About That.
I blurted: "Suppose someday you encounter something strange - maybe very strange. You form a committee to look into it and give advice." (I have been on several such 'consultant rolladexes'.) "Shouldn't that committee have access to past ruminations that might have already explored similar ground? Tales that maybe poked at the first assumptions that you might mistakenly make, if you ever face a similar situation?"
The purpose of TASAT is to enroll folks who have read a lot of sci fi tales and who might be able to provide that very service! See the full explanation at TASAT.org!
Lately, the first beta testers have been citing past tales about tech-sabotage, that eerily foresaw the recent "pager caper" wherein explosives got inveigled into an adversary's unsuspecting hands. Citations included Eric Frank Russells's Wasp and Harry Harrison's The Stainless Steel Rat Wants You, but it goes back even a century!
The TASAT project has stumbled many times. Turns out we needed Mr. Todd Zimmerman, expert programmer, to finally make it happen. (Thank you, Todd!)
And now we're hoping many of you will try out TASAT in the current beta and give feedback... because who knows? You may be the one to cite a story that shakes a false assumption, and maybe thusly save us all!
== A final grumble ==
Okay, it still kinda hurts. But my tribute to the recently-late Vernor Vinge... my friend and one of the greats of science fiction - can be found here.
So, what’s my grumble? The travesty - also raised by Harry Turtledove - that one of the best and most visionary SF authors of all time – Vernor – was never named Grand Master of SFWA - the Science Fiction & Fantasy Writers Association.
(Hey, changing SFWA's name from the parochial 'of America' was long overdue.)
But as for neglecting Vernor - despite many campaigns on his behalf? No writhing excuse for this dismal spurning is anything other than masturbatory justification of pure bigotry, of the kind that George Orwell described in Homage to Catalonia. The same righteous circular firing squad behavior that demolished the left in the 1930s Spanish Civil War, opening up a path for Hitler & Mussolini. Or frippy fads like Nader and Stein, that led to the destructive presidencies of George W. Bush and Donald Trump, and could do it to us, again.
Likewise, it is – today – the very essence of self-destruction, narrowing, cauterizing and neutering what should be an inspiring and multi-directional literature of progress.
Was that a Heinlein-like, old man shouting-at-clouds grumble rant? Sure, but prove me wrong, in comments?
Or how about maybe let's try a gesture that will both re-establish some justice in our field and broaden -- rather than narrow-down -- a progressive, future-seeking coalition? It could begin with a simple act to honor one of the greatest science fiction authors of all time.
Nancy Kress for Grand Master of SF.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rant mode off, now. But always on standby mode. ;-)
Have a great weekend. And check your voter registration.
Here’s how the war on the “knowledge based professions” actually started https://thespectator.com/topic/scientific-american-making-mistake-endorsing-kamala-harris/
ReplyDeleteQuestion - did you actually read the Scientific American editorial?
DeleteAnother question: do you also object to commercial companies making endorsements of political candidates?
Deletemcsandberg what stunning drool. The entire premise is that smart people are stupid. Sure, we all know that "High intelligence and knowledge don't automatically make you wise." That's a truth we all understand. But today's Kremlin-led cult to sabotage the West has converted that truth into the following:
ReplyDelete"High intelligence and knowledge automatically make you unwise."
YWhen it is parsed that purely, you will shrink back and deny it. But that is EXACTLY the campaign pushed by the entire Fox-o-Sphere, in their all-out war vs ALL fact using professions...
...from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
Dig it. Universities have expanded to a point where there are valid criticisms needed now and it is time to provide many alternatives. NEVERTHELESS, our university systems have since 1945 been America's crown jewell, the central source of all our progress and might. And the massive propaganda campaign against them is always trackable to our enemies who seek to weaken us and bring back rule by inheritance brats.
Nonetheless, the editors of Scientific American did make the error of endorsing a political candidate. Not because they are stupid, but as Toby Young notes:
Delete"More likely, I fear, is that the editors of Scientific American really do believe in the snake oil they’re selling. It’s not science they’re committed to, but scientism — a weird hybrid of technocratic managerialism and radical progressive ideology. If the modern era was made possible by the separation of knowledge and morality, the worshippers at this new altar seem determined to usher in a new post-modern utopia in which science and religion are fused once again. In that light, they cannot help but endorse Kamala Harris because their consciences won’t allow them to do otherwise. It’s not a choice dictated by science, but by theology. Trump, who gleefully trespasses over their sacred values, is the devil and they must stop him. The title of their magazine should be changed to Scientistic Americans."
Scientists endorsing Harris does not require them worshipping her. Trump is the enemy of science. Not just of the preeminent role scientists have in making policy, but of the very notion that evidence and facts can lead to a logical conclusion.
DeleteEndorsing Harris is a way of endorsing "not-Trump". From their POV (and mine), Trump must not be elected, therefore Harris must* . And it's not a matter of Democrats being in thrall to science or anything like that. Democrats, including Harris, will respect science and what it can do for us. Republicans don't.
It's not the scientists or the Democrats or the liberals who are the cultists.
* But of course, "therefore" implies a logical conclusion following from established facts learned by evidence--something your type of know-nothing doesn't accept. Good luck on a battlefield.
"Scientism", a favorite flatearther word.
DeleteRe: Vernor VInge
ReplyDeleteI never met him, nor even read any of his SF (until lately). To me, his name was always associated with advanced computation, often in the pages of ACM.
This week I was perusing some old FORTH code (not mine) that implemented a fairly extensive Theory of Mind (the holy grail of A.I. before all this generative hokum). Lo and behold, there was a reference to Vinge and his 'Singularity' term.
"Nancy Kress for Grand Master of SF.
ReplyDeleteAmen.
I personally discovered Nancy Kress when I read Murasaki, which I bought because of your story, Doc.
So, thanks for that.
Say, will there be a Kindle version of Project Solar Sail: 21st century edition? Space is at a premium and when travelling, I only use ebooks. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteConser did you try the book's website? Let us know here if you can't find an e-version.
ReplyDelete-----
mcsandberg THANK YOU for perfectly illustrating the masturbation-incantation of the morons who desperately seek to justify their insane war on science. STEP UP NOW with $$$ wager stakes and one of us here will accompany you to the nearest research university and knock on twenty doors. to see if even one person matches your egregiously dumb and insulting slander.
Your incantation only applies to one very small (minuscule) clade of folks with a scientific background... members of your planet assassinating cult.
IF you knew any scientists at all, you'd know we are the most COMPETITIVE beings this species - this planet - ever produced. A young scientist only gets somewhere by finding some corner of a standard model and poking at it until something gives. And thus the model improves... or else is replaced.
In fact RIGHT NOW I demand that you name a fact-based profession that is not warred upon by Fox and whose members aren't fleeing your mad cult. (I can name one.)
Not just science but medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. The latter, mostly lifelong republicans, can see that the party has become a Kremlin-serving treason cult. Few have become Democrats. But almost all have left the GOP madness and taken long showers.
"John Perlin’s newly re-issued tome is a classic. A Forest Journey: The Role of Trees in the Fate of Civilization* is a deeply-moving and persuasive elegy to the vital importance of the natural world - the groves and prairies and seas. Not as alternatives to civilization, but as the lungs and sinews and beating heart that allow us - especially our glittering cities - to stand and gaze upward."
ReplyDeleteHere's one example of a culture that adapts trees into their infrastructure rather than converting them (it's an oldie but a goodie): The living bridges of Meghalaya.
Another (fictional) example of arboreal architecture comes from my current interest. The game Horizon: Forbidden West features the Utaru tribal village of Plainsong. Situated at what's left of the Very Large Array in NM, the Utaru have bolstered and interwoven the remains of some of the radio telescope dishes with vines and banyan trees. The result is a sight to behold!
DeleteHey mcsandberg. Where'd you go?
ReplyDeleteThe debate is ended when the insults begin.
DeleteYeah yeah yeah. The ideal mask for cowardice. YOU came here hurling insults at the entire field of science and all of its practitioners. Insults that are bald-faced lies. I challenged you to actual, actual tests of your baseless and insulting assertions.
DeleteWere you possessed of EITHER honor or curiosity, you would have been interested in pursuing those tests. e.g. goint with one of us to a nearby research university and knocking on 20 doors. But you can clearly see that any direct tests would reveal your assertions to be mere cult incantations.
Let's be clear. I enjoy brusque but fair debate. But I owe no courtesy to a person spreading general lie-calumnies against the topmost aspects of our era that actually "Made America Great." And as a scientist (the most-competitive of all professions) I sure as heck found your insults worthy of response.
You are directly part of a 'movement that is assassinating the planet and civilization that my children will need, to survive. That makes you unworthy of courtesy.
"The Word for World is Forest"
ReplyDeleteU K Leguin heard herself described as the most arboreal SF writer of her age, and mentioned in the preface to this story that 'some of us are still up here swinging'.
Pappenheimer
P.S. 'Science and religion are fused once again'.
Is that like the Republican (and, in Canada, the Conservative) Party, issuing fatwas forbidding the use of the words 'climate change' in official documents or using climate change forecasts in state planning? Or Project 2025 planning to dismantle NOAA and the NWS?
No, that's dismissing science on behalf of religion. Me, I'd say SA is acting in self-defense...
There are other examples, but I'm ex-USAF Weather, and this is not only ignoring the experts, but shutting them up. And down.
I found the Time list '8 books . . .' interesting for what was left out.
ReplyDeleteWhile the mechanisms may not be the same, I see real echoes of both 1984 and The Handmaid's Tale in play at the moment. And I find that terrifying rather than merely eerie.
We've been living in Brave New World for so long that it's the book's "good" characters who seem hopelessly naive.
DeleteDr Brin in the main post:
ReplyDeleteWhat I absolutely rebel against is the remake of perfect films. I mean carumba, leave Lawrence of Arabia alone!
What mystifies me even more are re-makes of films whose surprise endings are universally known. Like what was the point of re-making The Stepford Wives when "Stepford Wife" has become shorthand already.
The Stepford remake was weird. The wives are hypmo-tized!. No they're clones! No, robots!.
Deletehe way to make wagers work between ADVERSARIES is to escrow the stakes in advance with a neutral party... as when men (actual men) give the stakes to the bartender to hold. Then they find a neutral and savvy adjudicator. I have proposed a RANDOMLY selected panel of senior retired military officers. Supremely fact oriented and hard for MAGAs to spurn. Thus cornered, an honest person reconsiders ridiculous stances, in order to preserve both honor and money! The dishonorable liars flee. And so far it is always, always flight.
ReplyDeleteI’ve heard it said that you shouldn’t remake good movies, you should remake BAD ones…
ReplyDeleteI've been president of a couple of non-profits and I always advised the boards of trustees to avoid endorsing political candidates. Reason 1: you don't want to make enemies - if the opposing political party starts to view you as a partisan player you get stuck if that party gets into power. Reason 2: once you start endorsing somebody, you get pressured to join a coalition and you get pressured to take stands on issues that are irrelevant to your core mission.
ReplyDeleteI would gladly let political campaigns buy ad space in our fundraising flyers and we would only rarely refuse to let a group buy an ad. Don't make enemies if you don't have to.
If I were still president of a non-profit, I would probably recommend against running ads for any political candidates; the environment is just too toxic. I think Harris is a better candidate and would be a better functioning President, but if the board let the Harris campaign buy an advertisement and if the Trump campaign demonstrated its usual incompetence and failed to buy an ad, this might piss off the MAGA right. Better not to accept money from any of them.
DeleteThe group I led for a brief time had the good sense to split into a 501(c)3 and 501(c)4 leaving one part able to studiously avoid politics while the sister org could dabble as long as they didn't appear to be too partisan.
DeleteI get SciAm's motivation, though. This is one of those times in history where the next generation of kids is going to ask people who were here "Why did you stay silent?" No future org will do well with a 'collaborator' label pinned to it. Same goes for 'coward' most likely.
Deleteif the board let the Harris campaign buy an advertisement and if the Trump campaign demonstrated its usual incompetence and failed to buy an ad, this might piss off the MAGA right. Better not to accept money from any of them.
Isn't that how democracy dies? "Let's not piss off the Brownshirts or they might go from terrorizing everyone else to noticing us."
Isn't that how democracy dies?
DeleteYou should look at who actually owns charitable organizations. Two Scoops and Family showed how to treat them as cash supplies, but the rest of us who run them tend to see them serving a public service. As such, it is the public who actually owns them.
The bigger danger isn't pissing off a set of possible donors. The risk is pissing off lawyers who know how to challenge charitable status for an organization... or just take them over. There are perfectly good reasons for the charities to stay out of politics and focus upon their missions.
Someone (Niven?) said Heinlein's prediction of the arms race in Solution Unsatisfactory (1941) was the best prediction ever.
ReplyDeleteDon,
ReplyDeleteiirc, that story got Mr Heinlein an Official Visit.
He and Bertrand Russell (separately) came up with the most obvious solution - an international gov't with a monopoly on nukes, a UN with big teeth. I don't think there was ever a window for that. It makes too much sense for the human species to adopt.
Pappenheimer
@Hugh groups like the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) are explicitly neutral in political allegiance.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't stop them issuing score cards on certain desired policies (eg stronger nature laws, fossil fuel reduction)
It doesn't stop certain parties, whose policies score poorly , from sharpening the axe. Morrison sought to exclude all environmental groups from charity status.
Singing my song.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Sep23-2.html
Groups like this ["Uncommitted", an Abandon-Biden-over-Gaza group] , especially on the "left," have a lot of trouble handling situations where you get a choice between a candidate who is bad (from your point of view) and one who is truly horrendously awful. They don't get it that going for "bad" may not feel good but gets you a better result than truly horrendously awful.
I am still pissed that in Ohio, the Senate Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC paid $2.7 million in the GOP primary to support the worst Republican contender, Bernie Moreno.
Deletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/politics/moreno-trump-democrats-ohio.html
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/03/ohio-senate-race-democrats-supporting-trump-endorsed-bernie-moreno.html
This type of nonsense is legal but it is immoral and wrong. I won't argue for it to be made illegal...I don't know if that is possible. But we end up with the possibility that the plan can fail and you end up with a terrible person in office.
Irony is, Moreno is now leading Sharrod Brown in the polls even though the independent PACs supporting Brown are flooding the airwaves and social media with very effective ads showing how terrible Moreno is.
@GMT,
DeleteI can't help but notice that whenever you object to bad behavior that is not actually prohibited but that you wish would be discouraged, it's always in the context of telling Democrats not to harm Republicans. I don't recall you inveighing against your state's including text on the ballot's anti-gerrymandering provision which claims it to be a pro-gerrymandering provision. Or North Carolina actually delaying the printing of ballots (and foreshortening early voting) in defiance of actual state law in order to remove RFK Jr after the deadline for doing so.
As far as I'm concerned, Republicans can take the beam out of their own eye before complaining about the mote in Democrats' eye.
...though I will admit that your "Careful, it may backfire" argument has merit.
Deletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/20/opinion/trump-elon-musk-twitter-x.html
ReplyDeleteWhat Trump Did to the G.O.P., Musk Did to Twitter
That headline reminds me of the line from Mel Brooks's version of To Be Or Not To Be, spoken by a Nazi general to Brooks's disguised character, not realizing that he's talking about the actor he's speaking to:
"...and what he does to Shakespeare, we did to Poland."
"John Brunner's astonishingly prophetic 1968 books Stand on Zanzibar and The Shockwave Rider" - and "The Sheep Look Up" his novel on environmental collapse, which was almost prophetic. Global Warming wasn't on anyone's radar back in the 70s so it doesn't get much mention (though unusually hot days and weird weather like snow in Paris in August) are mentioned. His emphasis was on chemical pollution of air. water and soil along with species decimation, dead seas (the Med and the Baltic are lifeless), beaches ringed with trash, crop failures from insecticide resistant pests, drug resistant diseases, etc.. But his description of the government and wealthy elite responses (more right wing repression and foreign wars along with guarded and fortified wealthy communities) was spot on.
ReplyDeleteDP... Harry Harrison's MAKE ROOM! did the Greenhouse warming and so did the resulting movie SOYLENT GREEN.
ReplyDeleteHudh (GMT) Of course the behavior you describe is unpalatable.... as is the very notion that Indiana and Ohio run their electric grid off the spinning in the graves of 50,000 ancestors who fought for the Union wearing blue, against an earlier phase of confederate madness.
ReplyDeleteI do wonder to what degree your media sources exaggerate this electoral sabotage attempt. But even if it is true, the fault lies in insanely partisan election laws perpetrated by party machines... but nowhere as brutally and systematically as in red states, where gerrymandering and other tricks have rendered the general election moot, compared with primaries that are rigged to favor extremists.
A majority of blue states have ended gerrymandering - often via rebellions by blue voters against blue party leaders. In California we have the best election laws in the nation. Except for President and a couple of other offices, it matters not a whit what party you are "in." The primary is a 1st-round. Every candidate is listed and every voter votes, so that the General Election is a runoff. This means that:
1. The chances of a monster making it into the general are small and winning it the odds are even smaller.
2. Yes, it often results in two dems against each other in the general... or two republicans. But a funny, unexpected thing happens. As two dems fight it out, each says "Wow, this district is 40% Republican. They vote. Let me reach out and see if there are some issues they care about that I can serve."
In other words, the problem and injustice of the ignored and despised 40% is partly solved.
3. 3rd parties have a slightly better chance now. Would improve more with rank choice voting .
My point tho is that the whole situation you describe is the fault of one party. The same one trying to end meaningful democracy forever.
Dr Brin:
ReplyDeleteHarry Harrison's MAKE ROOM! did the Greenhouse warming and so did the resulting movie SOYLENT GREEN.
The movie even moreso than the novel. The book version did begin with a heat wave, but later on there was still snow and ice in New York. In the movie, they talked about running the air conditioner to cool a room, "like winter used to be" (emphasis mine), as if the weather has been consistently hot for a long time.
* * *
Also, you've mentioned before that Harrison sneered at the movie by insisting that his story didn't include cannibalism. Maybe not so overtly, but the novel did have the Soylent corporation introducing a new cheap cut of meat that people raved about without explaining what it was or why it was so abundantly available. Since I had already seen the movie, I couldn't help reading in.
It's fair to point out my bias. And because of that, I used two sources that I felt were less likely to share my biases: the NY Times and Slate. And if I spend too much time only pointing out the sins of one side, I am confident that the rest of you can more than compensate. I try not to be too much of a crank and I don’t insult people…at least I hope I don’t.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to accuse me of being a Republican...I used to be one, but now I am on the "disavowed list." Sort of like Tom Cruise in the Mission Impossible movies. I used to have a co-worker at the Ohio Department of Taxation, now of blessed memory, who considered herself to be a Republican, but she was an apostate Republican (or maybe even a Trotskyist-Republican)…she hate what the GOP was doing and always complained about them. That’s a characteristic of an apostate…they are so angry and feel so betrayed by the group they left that all they can do is vent their anger at it.
Regarding CA's election laws and their redistricting commissions, here is an early story that showed those commissions in a negative light:
https://www.propublica.org/article/how-democrats-fooled-californias-redistricting-commission
Maybe things have changed since this article was written. Or maybe ProPublica is unreliable.
And what is the story with California’s ballot drop boxes? In November of 2022 my wife and I were visiting Vasquez Rocks. As we were leaving the parking lot I saw a rather tired-looking ballot drop box chained to a post. That did not give me much confidence in the chain of custody for any ballots deposited there.
I have issues with ProPublica after it made available tax return information of thousands of Americans leaked by Charles Littlejohn, an IRS contractor. I work for the IRS now. I've spent most of my professional life working for government tax agencies. I was outraged when Littlejohn was allowed to plead guilty to one count of unauthorized disclosures of tax returns after stealing and leaking the returns for 7,600 individuals and 600 entities.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/01/29/irs-contractor-leak-trump-taxes-sentence/
David, I know you are an advocate for public availability for all of this information and I would love to talk with you about it someday. I am not opposed to the idea (I love your idea about requiring property owners to declare their interests), but I have concerns. As for now, I believe there are good reasons for the laws protecting the privacy of tax return information and HIPAA information.
One of those reasons is that you have to file that information under duress...if you don't file it, you are guilty of a crime. If you purposely file false information, you are guilty of a crime. There are lots of other laws and rules I have to follow concerning the information I have.
Speaking of work, I have to get back to it. My break is over.
That Propublica article is VERY dated. Since then we found that the Dems in our legislature did NOT want that measure to pass. Taking away redistricting took from one one of the votes they could use while horsetrading with the opposition. "You vote for my bill, I vote for your district safety."
DeleteTurned out there were giving up TOO much to win those GOP votes. After redistricting there were usually more Dems in the legislature than could have happened with maps they drew.
I'm not sure we get the moderation we need that our host suggests happens, though. Perhaps during the election cycle we do, but once in office... I'm not so sure. My current suspicion, though, is that has less to do with the district maps and more to do with short term limits. If you can only serve in an office a small number of times, they are a bit more motivated to DO something... which I'll admit I'd (often) rather they didn't. They stay in session way too long.
Stonekettle to a troll. And I agree wholeheartedly:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
I don't care if you agree with me or not on the little things. You don't like coffee? You think kale is food? Whatever. So long as you're not a dick about it.
I do, however, very much care if you disagree with me on things like "slavery is bad" or "separation of church and state," etc. If you're someone who idealizes the Confederacy or the Third Reich, you are wrong. We don't agree to disagree. We not going to be friends. I'm not going to respect your beliefs. You're wrong. Piss off.
GMT:
ReplyDeleteAnd if I spend too much time only pointing out the sins of one side, I am confident that the rest of you can more than compensate.
Ok, if the point is that we've detailed the Republican sins plenty, and you need to point out that "Democrats do it too." The thing is, you don't present yourself that way. I mean, I wear my politics on my sleeve. Everyone who knows me knows I am speaking as a liberal with liberal values. You seem to present yourself as merely fair and balanced, and so when your complaints just happen to all be against Democrats, the implication is that you have no issue with badly-behaving Republicans, or that you don't acknowledge that Republicans as a party are behaving badly in a way that isn't mitigated by bad behavior by individual Democrats.
Maybe it's just me. I had the same reaction when Tacitus used to look for bipartisan agreement on things like, "We should all agree that Kathy Griffen pretending to behead a Trump mannequin is so egregious that we all denounce it," and then when some of us disagree, that proves we're the partisan hacks.
If you want to accuse me of being a Republican...I used to be one, but now I am on the "disavowed list." ... I used to have a co-worker at the Ohio Department of Taxation, now of blessed memory, who considered herself to be a Republican, but she was an apostate Republican (or maybe even a Trotskyist-Republican)…she hate what the GOP was doing and always complained about them.
In my experience, apostate Republicans are mostly like your own governor, who complains about the damage Trump's and Vance's rhetoric are doing to his own state, but will still vote for them anyway. There are starting to be a few more Kinsinger/Cheney types who walk the walk, but they're still the exception that proves the rule.
Maybe things have changed since this article was written. Or maybe ProPublica is unreliable.
According to Stonekettle, both ProPublica and Nate Silver have sold out to the point that they now have a partisan agenda instead of just analyzing and reporting the facts.
I don't think Nate Silver has, but he sure doesn't shy away from pissing off True Believers.
DeleteThere are times when I wonder if he is on spectrum. Kinda feels like it when I read his newsletter.
GMT, if you check back...
ReplyDeleteThe thought of a Trotskyist-Republican fills my mind with the image of a Russian Civil War - era armored train, cannon and water-cooled machine guns bristling, except one of the cars is Dagny Taggart's boudoir
The horror...the horror
Pappenheimer
Larry, that's fair. I will try to make a point of agreeing to criticisms of Republicans and their policies when I read them here. I will also try to keep my partisan posts short. There is a certain person here who makes long posts filled with lots of arguments. That person always seems to have the same tone and I find them boring. I skip their posts.
ReplyDeleteMy main criticism of the GOP is that they don't seem to have any real policies. They vent on some of the hot button issues, but have not offered any constructive policies of their own since the mid-80s.
I was getting my LL.M. in taxation then and we were following the Congressional hearings on what would become the Tax Reform Act of 1986 very closely. It was the last time I think I saw Congress doing its job well.
The only reason a sane person would vote for the GOP now is as a brake on bad policies that they fear the government might enact. Problem is, we need good policies and the GOP is not offering any.
GMT:
ReplyDeleteI will try to make a point of agreeing to criticisms of Republicans and their policies when I read them here. I will also try to keep my partisan posts short.
Fair enough. I will also try to understand the context of your examples. They often feel as if some minor Democratic transgression more than cancels out the egregious nature of the current Republican Party. I understand that that might be on me.
My main criticism of the GOP is that they don't seem to have any real policies. They vent on some of the hot button issues, but have not offered any constructive policies of their own since the mid-80s.
Exactly. The modern Trumpist Republican Party offers its supporters only one thing--being mean to people they don't like. That's apparently enough for 40%+ of the country.
The only reason a sane person would vote for the GOP now is as a brake on bad policies that they fear the government might enact.
The Republicans* have their own bad policies, exemplified with Project 2025.
* I refuse to dignify the modern party by calling them Grand or Old (in the sense of venerable).
May I suggest "The (Formerly) GOP"? I've read that the party's current goal is an impotent Federal government that can't inconvenience oligarchs, seems unlikely to contribute to many more years as a great power.
DeleteLarry Hart: I refuse to dignify the modern party by calling them Grand or Old
ReplyDeleteYou could use George Will's term: Vichy Republicans
I've thought of that term, but how many Americans these days would have the faintest clue what that means? Everybody knows about the Nazis, but hardly anybody even remembers who Mussolini was, much less have heard of Vichy France. Republican administrations have been slashing education budgets for literally generations. As John D. Rockefeller said to the president he owned (McKinley), "I don't want an educated workforce, I want an obedient workforce."
DeleteNate Silver has pretty obviously gone over to supporting the goals of his oligarch employer. His polling keeps pushing back on any momentum the Dems may have built, just after any favorable poll. He's biased as much as Rasmussen is. He is not trying to be contrarian, he is blatant in his overt bias.
ReplyDeleteWho is his employer?
DeleteHe left Disney.
Peter Theil owns the PAC that is supporting Nate these days.
DeleteThank you. I'll watch out for that.
DeleteGMT Hugh. You raise good points… though again, they do seem minor compared to the big progress.
ReplyDeleteIn Polemical Judo I talk about methods for fair redistricting that would bypass potentially biased “commissions.” But to deny that those commissions are 500% better – make that 5000% - better than egregiously contorted cheating via gerrymandering, that has also helped to radicalize US politics, seems a bit inapropos.
Indeed, you point to anecdotes like forlorn drop boxes, when the actual security is as the ballot ingress stage when the outer envelope signature is compared to the signature on file and checked against double voting. Want to make that better? Even though there are almost ZERO reported examples of cheating at this phase? Fine! Do random audits of randomly chosen mailed or drop-boxed ballots -- by phoning the person who sent it -- and in-person checking anything suspicious.
It is troubling that such audits aren’t ever mentioned by GOPper complainers. Because they know it already works and would work better, if fully funded.
Having said all that, thank you for your dedicated service at a despised but desperately needed agency… that AT LAST is now funded to actually do its job. Despite massively slanderous propaganda campaigns funded by the oligarchs who now must fear being… audited.
GMT redux:
ReplyDeleteMy main criticism of the GOP is that they don't seem to have any real policies. They vent on some of the hot button issues, but have not offered any constructive policies of their own since the mid-80s.
This explains some of what the Vichy Republicans offer their voters.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/opinion/trump-springfield-haitian-immigrants.html
The divisive techniques of skilled orators, Rousseau wrote, work because people in conditions of inequality “look more below than above them,” such that “domination becomes dearer to them than independence.” That is, Rousseau understood that the greatest comforts of people in unequal societies are the sense that they are still better off than some others and the conviction that they might even exercise some power over them.
Stonekettle ruins his truly excellent persuasive skills when he loses his agility at being the credible sane-guy-with-guns.
ReplyDeleteIf a fellow like him is NOT fiercely focused on peeling away a few thousands of the ‘reachable’ - the few thousand defectors from MAGA that we desperately need - then he has devolved down to being a mere cheerleader for our side. And thus… though still fun… he becomes zzzzzzzz
Kamala did much better avowing to be a gun owner and threatening anyone who tries a Pelosi style home break-in. Good agility there.
----
LH is right. When one party has FORTY TIMES the number of high pols indicted by Grand Juries across the country – mostly white retirees in red states – and then convicted by other juries – and when the ratio goes to 80:1 for child predators like Dennis “friend to boys” Hastert (who the GOP made Speaker!)… then there’s a real burden of proof on anyone asserting “The GOP is worse but only by degree.”
No, it is worse by being evil that’s diametrically opposite to (flawed) good. Just as in other phases of the recurring US Civil War. As further evidence, compare rates of almost every turpitude in Red states (except Utah) vs Blue states.
As for an October Surprise… I pray for the competence of the FBI undercover guys who might save us from a McVeigh style Reichstag fire. Do good work, guys.
"Rousseau wrote, work because people in conditions of inequality “look more below than above them,” such that “domination becomes dearer to them than independence.”"
ReplyDeleteMark Twain said that a southern poor white man will do anything for the plantation lords because - "If he has someone lower down to kick, he'll let you take his wallet."
It's one of those "There are two kinds of people in the world..." things.
DeleteIn times of injustice and inequality, there are two kinds of people in the world. Those who want to make things more equitable and just; and those who want to make sure they're on the winning side.
And then there are those who Just want to survive another day, week or month.
DeleteAnd those who have been numbed and demobilized enough from political games that they stay home when it counts.
@Der Oger the answers to such as those are 'cynicism is obedience', and 'optimism is subversive'. A little bit of community activism works wonders for such attitudes.
ReplyDeleteLarry,
ReplyDeleteThe third category are the folks who are willing to give up their safety and comfort to make the world more just...a harder ask than just rooting for equality. Those who walk away from Omelas, as it were.
Pappenheimer, who isn't in that 3rd category. Sadly.
I posted a topic in TASAT about great SF story opening lines. Pappenheimer, you maybe should post one about great closing lines. Olemas (Salem, O.regon in rear-view mirror) would be a fine example.
ReplyDeleteThat's Omelas of course. Christopher Hitchens wrote tons about Dostoyevsky's "Brothers Karamazov".
ReplyDeleteno, that's Olemas, by the noted Dutch author Ursula Kaeleguin
ReplyDeletePappenheimer
sorry about that little quip - I thought *I* had misspelled Omelas and was acknowledging the touch.
ReplyDeletePappenheimer
Whenever my dyslexia pops up, I try to ignore it (and hope others do too). But in this case, the mirror factoid doesn't work with the Dutch author name (funny).
ReplyDeleteI wondered if it were a symptom, and felt bad. And I've been proud of my spelling since grade school, but I've noticed my brain is starting to tell my fingers to type homonyms. Sucks to grow old*.
ReplyDelete*still better than the alternative
"One can't help but grow old," said Alice.
"One can't, but two can," said the Caterpillar.
A bit alarming to find a reference to murder in a children's book.
Pappenheimer
Pappenheimer:
ReplyDeleteI've been proud of my spelling since grade school, but I've noticed my brain is starting to tell my fingers to type homonyms.
Are you sure it's not autocorrect doing that?
Ever since (I think it was) Windows 7, I've noticed that the letters I type on the screen don't always appear in the same order I typed them, especially if I'm typing quickly.
A bit alarming to find a reference to murder in a children's book.
Haven't read much Grimm's Fairy Tales, eh?
ReplyDeletethe folks who are willing to give up their safety and comfort to make the world more just...Those who walk away from Omelas, as it were.
Pappenheimer, who isn't in that 3rd category. Sadly.
I am also likely too cowardly to walk away. What I think I would do, though, is to comfort the afflicted child, or (if that were not possible) put him out of his misery. Consequences be damned.
Is that better or worse on the scale vs walking away?
scidata:
ReplyDeleteOlemas (Salem, O.regon in rear-view mirror)
Not knowing any backstory, was that fictional name supposed to invoke Salem, Oregon by design?
I ask because this past summer, I had the opportunity to visit a different and more famous Salem--Salem, Massachusetts. The downtown at least is a living theme park with the theme being witches. It's all tributes to the 1692 victims juxtaposed with images like a pizza restaurant whose icon is a slice with the point facing upward, like a witch's hat.
And I couldn't help but think, "You've got some chutzpah, putting innocents to death and then profiting off of the infamy of those trials 300 years later."
Hmmmmmm. Interesting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Sep25-6.html
Even in the worst-case [ Georgia ratf***ing ] scenario, it is worth noting that Team Trump may well be operating under a rather serious error of constitutional law. Many people have said, or written, that if no candidate gets 270 EVs, then the election will be sent to the House for a contingent election. This is simply not correct. In fact, the contingent election happens if no candidate gets at least 50.1% of the ascertained electoral votes. Imagine this situation: Georgia's 16 EVs are disputed, beyond the date the electors meet (December 17). Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, the one Nebraska EV, and the safe blue states. That would put her at 262 EVs. Then, Trump wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, the one Maine EV, and the safe red states. That would put him at 260 EVs. With Georgia's 16 EVs rendered moot by the terms of U.S. election law, there would only be 522 EVs available, and it would require 261 EVs to win. So, Harris would be elected in this scenario.
Larry Hart,
ReplyDeleteI misspelled the town's name. It's Omelas, which is how Le Guin saw 'Salem O.' in the car's mirror (according to Wikipedia).
The scapegoat parable itself is ancient and is probably considered public domain. BTW, Star Trek: Strange New Worlds "Lift Us Where Suffering Cannot Reach" tells the same story (same ref.)
Larry, note that the scenario you link to above (50.1% of ascertained electoral votes) would be adjudicated by SCOTUS, which contains at least 3 of the legal minds that ratfucked us with the GOP response to Bush v Gore and 1 of the justices that actually voted for that legal abomination.
ReplyDeleteAny legal challenge that gets to SCOTUS will be settled in favor of Trump. 100%, no question. There will be no attempt at a figleaf if the election can be determined by the court.
The only path forward for democracy is for Harris to win so big that the challenges do not matter.
I put the odds of Trump winning via his corrupt SCOTUS as 75%. Harris will "win" this election, and SCOTUS will reverse the will of the people, just like they did in 2000. Joe Biden will concede the loss rather than exercise his extra-legal POTUS powers to challenge SCOTUS.
matthew:
ReplyDeleteLarry, note that the scenario you link to above (50.1% of ascertained electoral votes) would be adjudicated by SCOTUS
There's nothing to be adjudicated. If Georgia's electoral votes are not certified by Dec 16, then their votes aren't part of the total.
While I agree with your contempt for the supreme court, and don't entirely dismiss the possibility that they just award the presidency to Trump with no justification, there is nothing in the above scenario for them to adjudicate with justification.
Facts and plain law will not stop them from doing it. They will legislate from the bench, as they are fond of doing.
Deletematthew:
ReplyDeleteI put the odds of Trump winning via his corrupt SCOTUS as 75%. Harris will "win" this election, and SCOTUS will reverse the will of the people, just like they did in 2000.
The court still had respect in 2000 that it does not have now. I'm not sure the non-Trumpy American people will simply accept such a ruling.
Also, in 2000, Bush had already won the electoral vote unless Florida was allowed to complete a recount. All the court had to do was to run out the clock and retain the status quo. That's different from actually changing the result of state elections.
I'm not trying to be happy-clappy, but the court would have a higher bar to clear than it did in 2000.
Joe Biden will concede the loss rather than exercise his extra-legal POTUS powers to challenge SCOTUS.
In that scenario, Harris should invoke the 25th Amendment to make herself president and then go nuts with her queen powers.
Larry,
ReplyDeleteI the non-fascist people of America are betrayed by the Supreme Court, what can they do about it? As Cersei Lannister once said, "Power is power." Short of outright rebellion and an assassination campaign, there isn't really anything we can do.
Paul SB
When in the course of human events...
Deletescidata:
ReplyDeleteOmelas, which is how Le Guin saw 'Salem O.' in the car's mirror (according to Wikipedia).
I was only wondering if there was something specific to Salem O that she was alluding to. As opposed to just considering the reversed name to be useful.
The scapegoat parable itself is ancient and is probably considered public domain.
In a way, it's the basis of Christianity. Everyone's salvation depending on God's Own suffering.
Dr. Brin,
ReplyDeleteDid you make that Terry Pratchett reference intentionally? I wouldn't say it was anywhere near one of his best, since it was only his second book. I'm sure several people here could recommend much better reading.
Paul SB
It's by no means certain that Harris wins Georgia, nor is doing so a necessary condition for her winning the electoral college.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, if it seems apparent that Trump will win that state, then a Democratic election official in some county should refuse to certify, thus potentially taking Georgia's electoral votes off of the board from Trump.
I mean, why not?
Because that offends my inner Boy Scout.
DeleteWe are at this point because too many centrists refused to take the GOP coup seriously and prosecute to the full extent of the law. GOP lawmakers and judges involved with the plot to coup the US should have been charged on Jan. 7th, 2021. Instead, the process was purposefully slow-walked by the DoJ, FBI, and the Biden administration.
ReplyDeleteWe know, with certainty, that members of SCOTUS were involved. That investigation was blocked by Liz Cheney.
We know, with certainty, that members of Congress were involved. That investigation was blocked by the DoJ.
We know, with certainty, that the GOP is taking orders from hostile foreign powers and mafia crime lords. That investigation is being blocked by the FBI and the AG of the US.
When the US devolves into a fascist state, we will have centrists to blame.
We also have Democrats who insist we have to play fair even while cheating is a winning strategy for the other side.
DeleteI don't advocating that our side cheat just for partisan advantage. But I do advocate countering Republican cheating with our own, if only to make the judges and politicians go, "Hey, that's cheating!" They won't say that if only Republicans are benefiting.
California got meaningful gun control passed--signed into law by Governor Ronald Reagan, for chrissake--when it became apparent that black people were taking the Second Amendment seriously. Likewise, we can only expect meaningful checks on unlimited presidential power or electoral chicanery if it appears that Democrats might benefit from those things.
Those centrists outnumber you, my friend. Don't piss them off.
DeleteBut I do advocate countering Republican cheating with our own, if only to make the judges and politicians go, "Hey, that's cheating!" They won't say that if only Republicans are benefiting.
DeleteUnfortunately, what I expect to happen now is the judges will rule narrowly, basically saying "How the Democrats cheated in this instance is cheating, but it doesn't apply to how the Republicans cheat."
Then expect to hear weeks of Republicans crowing, "Democrats cheat! They are cheaters! See, we have a court case to prove it!" :(
The centrists are putting their institutions above the survival of the nation.
ReplyDeleteAnd centrists do *not* outnumber us. Centrists and fascists together do not outnumber us. It is only by dint of cheating that they retain power.
You might be working with a narrower definition of 'centrist' than I am I suppose.
DeleteYour anger is understandable. Appreciated even. It's just that you are misusing it.
Get the young folks to vote. Most everyone else has made up their minds and you suck at convincing the few sane wives and aunts WE are sane enough that they should cancel the votes of their nearest male MAGA relatives. From their POV, you are raving too.
matthew, bah. You dippy, coalition destroying splitters are the reason we got GWBush and Donald Trump.
ReplyDeleteNO! The Supreme Court of the US is why we got GWB. In a plan made by John Roberts, aided by two other current members of the court, and voted in place by another member of the court. The refusal of our "centrists" to uphold the law is how we got GWB.
DeleteAnd fuck off calling me a splitter. I've *never* encouraged a split vote and you know it after 25 years of conversation.
I do push for following policy that 75% of the nation wants instead of centrist weak half-measures. But I have *never* encouraged splitting off. No matter how many times you slander me.
You rave and denounce your allies and that is splitterism. LOOK at AOC, Bernie, Liz, Stacey, Jaime (head of the DNC that you used to denounce)... ALL of them spend half their time corraling cats on the left to act like adult members of a broad and essential coalition.
DeleteDID you ever read Homage to Catalonia, where Orwell describes how splitterism on the left not only lost the Spanish Civil War but opened the way for Hitler?
You rave about how you lefties are a majority outnumbering both Republicans and the moderate and market Democrats you despise. PROVE IT with money on the line. I mean it. My tactic of shaming MAGAs with manly wagers works with them... at least at shaming them. But you frippers don't even think honor or manliness are relevant! So what will it take to get you to stop with the bullshit?
Have you LOOKED at the 2021 Pelosi bills? I keep asking you to and you keep changing the subject. She vuilt a coalition and it moved many thingbs making them THE NEW PLATEAU from which Bernie and AOC can demand next steps, IF we unify and smash the treason cult. But to you, they must be sellouts.
Bah. sanctimony junkies chafe my hide.
It was 'centrists' and incrementalists who passed the Pelosi bills of 2021 which accomplished VASTLY more, if incrementally, than all your yowling and preening and purity tests combined. And watch, if we give KH a Congress. Maher is SO right about you splitter poseurs.
ReplyDeleteThe Pelosi bills were brilliant and I said so at the time. Stop with your revisionist bullshit.
DeleteWhat I am pointing out is the Republicans that make up 90% of the FBI and DoJ have betrayed our nation. Even the moderate ones refuse to take action against their own party.
You work so hard to try to convince an illusionary middle to support your ideas and piss on your allies because they disagree on your tactics.
Fool.
A.F. Rey:
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, what I expect to happen now is the judges will rule narrowly, basically saying "How the Democrats cheated in this instance is cheating, but it doesn't apply to how the Republicans cheat."
Maybe, but there's benefit to forcing them to induce cognitive dissonance in everyone who hears their arguments. People don't like feeling like they're being played. At the very least, I want it rubbed into the faces of the Trump supporters that, "You're agreeing with a ruling that doesn't even make sense to you."
matthew:
ReplyDeleteThe Supreme Court of the US is why we got GWB. In a plan made by John Roberts, aided by two other current members of the court, and voted in place by another member of the court. The refusal of our "centrists" to uphold the law is how we got GWB.
Which centrists are you referring to who had the power to overrule the supreme court had they chosen to do so?
And didn't Roberts come afterwards? He was appointed by W.
I mentioned to my wife gov-candidate Robinson's comment that he, a black person, wished they'd bring back slavery; he'd like to buy a few slaves.
ReplyDeleteShe said "Goldscuttle."
Goldscuttle is a merchant NPC in the Dungeons and Dragons Online game we used to play. Goldscuttle specializes selling in arrows and crossbow bolts of kobold bane - that is, they do extra damage to kobolds.
Goldscuttle is also a kobold.
Pappenheimer
Larry,
ReplyDeletein 2000, of the 5 SC justices that voted to enthrone Bush; Sandra O'Connor was considered a 'moderate' (i.e. a sane Republican). Anthony Kennedy had some liberal views socially (i.e. same-sex marriage) but was otherwise bog-standard GOP.
Not sure how justified this is, but it's true that anyone standing next to Scalia and Thomas will look moderate.
Pappenheimer
"Drumph!" promises an administration that won't crimp the "style" of oligarchs & bigots, Harris hopes to provide a more prosperous clientele for the business folk. Oligarchs who support "Drumph!" might be a bit clueless outside of finance.
ReplyDeleteHi all, inspired by TASAT I'm looking for TASFT. In the Netherlands we have the children's book week to celebrate reading among kids. As part of that my 9yo daughter's teacher is inviting parents to come read for the class. I'm looking for a story that will get them excited about sci-fi (or fantasy) and with that thinking about the future in a hopeful manner, encouraging to ask questions (yay to SOA). Do any of you know of such a story that can be read in about 15-20 minutes and is age appropriate (ideally available in Dutch as well) ?
ReplyDelete@roderikk well, I can point you to Grist's Climate 2200 competition which has been running for a couple of years, and which encourages optimistic cli-fi tales. At ~3000 words each, they should fit the 20 minute period and you may find something there, although I can't vouch for age appropriateness. For that, I might suggest Peter Brown's 'Wild Robot' series, which is somewhat fantastical, but told with charm (the film's terrific, btw)
ReplyDeleteAnd, of course, there's our host's YA offerings ('Out of Time' series)
Pappenheimer:
ReplyDeletein 2000, of the 5 SC justices that voted to enthrone Bush; Sandra O'Connor was considered a 'moderate' (i.e. a sane Republican). Anthony Kennedy had some liberal views socially (i.e. same-sex marriage) but was otherwise bog-standard GOP.
There are times of crisis during which is it somewhat obvious that the politicians who supposedly wield the levers of power are told in no uncertain terms by their real masters that this is one of the times you were elevated to office for, and here are your marching orders.
The 700 Billion dollar bailout of the financial industry in 2008 was one such moment. The supreme court's intervention in what should have been a Florida state matter sure looks like another one.
Pappenheimer:
ReplyDeleteI mentioned to my wife gov-candidate Robinson's comment that he, a black person, wished they'd bring back slavery; he'd like to buy a few slaves.
Ann Coulter famously said that she'd be happy if women were denied the vote.
There are always members of minority groups who see advantage in casting themselves as Juden Fur Hitler .
"The 700 Billion dollar bailout of the financial industry in 2008 was one such moment. The supreme court's intervention in what should have been a Florida state matter sure looks like another one."
ReplyDeleteThe bailout was necessary. Making it a gift instead of a loan backed by the banks' entire equity, THAT was utter corruption. And the top 3 layers of execs should have lost their mansions and sent to McDonalds.
When casting blame for the TWO times Florida gave us GOP monster presidents... don't forget to mention Nader and Stein, who could have said "I'm staying out of swing states." They should roast.
We'll see what effects Helene has. But it may take 3 hurricanes to waken anyone.
My arguments with Dr. Brin are over tactics. On strategy, we agree on most everything. Dr. Brin has written two non-fiction books on politics. One, The Transparent Society, is about vision and strategy. It is brilliant, and is why I hang around here. The other, Polemical Judo, is about tactics, and it is mostly very bad advice. It is over tactics to achieve a shared strategy that I have conflict with our host.
ReplyDeleteOn tactics - 75% of Americans support the "liberal" position on most issues - guns regulation, raising taxes on the rich, etc. etc. But 50% of Americans eligible to vote do not bother to do so. Dr. Brin spends all his tactical energy trying to convince defections from the GOP instead of going after the 50% of non-voters. This is bad tactics and bad math.
Take the wager technique that he tries constantly - He uses terms like "manliness" to try to convince conservatives to change their mind out of shame. This is utterly tone-deaf. It shames his targets and is supposed to impress any bystanders, but it fails to do so, especially with anyone under 40 because it comes off as peacocking, bragging, and bullying. It reinforces the "both sides are bad" meme. It angers the target and turns off the kids in the room. Stoopid.
The Pelosi Bills were brilliant. I said so at the time, and I said so just upstream. But the reason the Pelosi Bills were brilliant was because they included so many ideas pushed by the liberal wing of the Democrats. Bernie, Warren, AOC, et al understand how to reach the three-quarters of non voters that support liberal policies. You reach those voters by doing things that matter to them, not by some pivot to the center. Do the good work and trumpet the news.
If Harris wins, it will be because the Democrats have shown that they govern wisely and in accordance with the wishes vast majority of "get-able" votes.
The "centrists" that I blame for our present situation are those moderate Republicans that Dr. Brin keeps trying to convince, even at the expense of alienating his allies to the left and the vast audience of non-voters.
ReplyDeleteThese "centrists" are mostly conservative in nature, and therefore tend to be tribal and institution-minded. The DoJ and FBI have a lot of these folks, and also a lot of hard-core GOP true believers. These institutions do *not* resemble the political makeup of the US. 90% of FBI are registered GOP.
Is it any wonder that the DoJ and FBI have failed so utterly to hold anyone responsible for the attempted coup? Rooting out coup-plotters requires exposing the guilty within their own institutions, and the blue wall of silence will not allow that to happen.
After Jan. 6th, there was political will to punish the coup-plotters. But Biden chose an AG who was very "centrist" instead of a partisan hawk. AG Garland has slow-walked the investigations, protecting the institutions, instead of aggressively prosecuting the criminals. He has hidden the rot at the DoJ and FBI instead of fixing the problem. He may be directly responsible for the loss of democracy in the US by doing so.
Okay. Your definition of centrist is quite a bit narrower than mine. I'll take back my comment about them out-numbering you.
DeleteNo doubt Biden had the coup indictments slow-walked and focused. Some of what happened, though, likely isn't visible to you. Many of these so-called centrists working for DoJ require security clearances to do their jobs. I'm DoD and almost immediately all our training materials shifted to emphasize how domestic terrorism is a big, fat "Don't Pass Go. Do not collect $200." It is very easy for clearances to be to be re-investigated and not granted. They don't have to explain a damn thing to us when they yank 'em.
It has been a few years since Jan 6 and they STILL emphasize how they want us reporting on each other about these kinds of shenanigans. They actually call it 'domestic terrorism' and not some euphemism.
I would still appreciate it if you did not piss off these folks. I know you think the wager approach doesn't work, but some of us are still active at converting some of them through other tricks. Don't harden them further against us.
Dr Brin:
ReplyDeleteThe [2008] bailout was necessary. Making it a gift instead of a loan backed by the banks' entire equity, THAT was utter corruption.
Notwithstanding it being necessary, no congress people wanted to vote for it. Until they were told/bribed/extorted into doing it anyway. I forget who the treasure secretary was who was flop-sweating when he announced the need for the bailout and its size.
I'm thinking that the pressure on Republican appointees on the supreme court to find for W in 2000 was similar.
Elon Musk is running Trump's get out the vote program.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/26/trump-voter-turnout-elon-musk-pac
I'm inclined to see this as good news. Elon generally learns by breaking stuff, so I suspect that the GOP get out the vote program will soon be broken.
Of course, if anyone lets Elon run the program a second time, we may be in trouble. He *learns* by breaking stuff.
And, by all appearances, the GOP is not relying on getting out the vote. They intend to cheat.
I still give 75% odds that their cheating will work because the "centrists" I mentioned above will turn a blind eye to the cheating, all in the name of preserving institutions, while pissing away the USA.
matthew: The Transparent Society... is why I hang around here"
ReplyDeleteIt's an interesting 'once around the table' subject. I hang around for FOUNDATION'S TRIUMPH (an enchanting wrap-up of Asimov's masterwork), and for "Why Johnny Can't Code" (the essence of computational thinking).
Who are you and what have you done with Matthew? That was a cogent response and made several arguable points. But –
ReplyDelete- You claim that the Pelosi coalition and those with ‘liberal views’ were leftists in a convenient relabeling, a VAST majority of whom think of themselves as ‘centrists.’ A VAST majority. Parsing what YOU say: the policy positions of a US majority are ‘liberal,’ sure. THAT IS THE CENTER. Your own words undermine your earlier sanctimony yowls.
-
Get out the vote is already being handled by both the pros and masses of volunteers. Kamala has achieved what Obama did… absolutely neutralizing the lefty frippers who otherwise reliably betray their own coalition. And in both cases it was in part because of their status as formerly under-empowered (and now in some cases over-empowered) minorities. I DON’T MIND THAT A BIT, if it results in a winning coalition and Kamala is as solid as she seems…
…and above all appoints those 5000 skilled professionals. But it can’t permanently be the only thing that keeps the left from betraying us.
I can’t matter to the Get Out The Vote – except I donated to my local congressman’s tight campaign. What I CAN do is try to peel away the residually sane from the mad confederacy, with unusual confrontational tactics.
You dismiss that as hopeless and not worth the effort. But it is desperately needed, because peeling away just 1 million will prevent the “We wuz robbed!” yowls that can lead to violence and civil war. Every residually sane defector from Trumpism creates a penicillin circle around herself that spreads.
And KH will only be able to pull another Pelosi year if she has a solid Congress. That means it must be a landslide.
BTW the genius aof Pelosi + B iden was to realize: “Even an 8 year Democratic presidency only gets 2 years of Congress. Clinton & Obama wasted those 2 years trying to negotiate. Biden & Pelosi hit the ground running and with Schiff and Schumer etc pounded past all GOP obstructionists. KH and Hakeem & Schumer will do the same… IF we give her a Congress. Are YOU helping?
“But the reason the Pelosi Bills were brilliant was because they included so many ideas pushed by the liberal wing of the Democrats. Bernie, Warren, AOC, et al understand how to reach the three-quarters of non voters that support liberal policies. You reach those voters by doing things that matter to them, not by some pivot to the center. Do the good work and trumpet the news.”
You say some cogent thing. Then this. You are so incredibly full of it. Have you ever, ever, ever considered actually LISTENING to Bernie and Liz?
“The "centrists" that I blame for our present situation are those moderate Republicans that Dr. Brin keeps trying to convince…”
Jesus, you are very agile sir. Watching you definition dance is like watching a Disney film.
“I'm inclined to see this as good news. Elon generally learns by breaking stuff, so I suspect that the GOP get out the vote program will soon be broken.”
likewise. GOP pols across the country are reporting empty volunteer stations.
It may come down to wives across America promising to mail their husbands’ ballots and then shredding them and burying the bits under mulch.
But I very much doubt you read Polemical Judo/
Oh, I've read Polemical Judo. My copy is beat to hell from me throwing it across the room in frustration about every 10 pages, but it has been read more than once.
ReplyDeleteThere a a few good ideas in there. And a ton of very bad ones.
Most of PJ was hashed through in this blog log before publication. I recognize voices from here in some of the good ideas, as well as in a lot of the bad ones.
I'll leave you with one thought - your wager dare, the one you keep coming back to over and over again, does not produce the results that you want. It does not convince the audience to the wager that you are right and that your target is a coward for not meeting your challenge. No, it fails at that every time.
But it does one thing very very well. It fills you with sanctimony. It utterly charges you up with self-righteousness. It doesn't solve a damn problem other than getting you your fix. You get to be macho and argumentative and YOU"RE SOLVING THE PROBLEM BY SHOWING THE BULLY!
But it doesn't impress the bullies' wifes and kids, not one damn bit.
I accept your assertion as an assertion worth weighing. I know damn well that it works better than anything you have ever proposed. But it is worth looking at, in the spirit of citokate.
ReplyDeleteThank you, I appreciate that.
DeleteOne of the main differences between the USA and most democracies is the way that voters are registered
ReplyDeleteIn most countries there is a non-partisan organisation funded by the state with the TASK of getting all eligible voters registered and keeping the registers up to date
This is the difference that accounts for most of the difference in voting percentages
How can you guys push for the creation of some such organisation in the USA?
Duncan,
ReplyDeleteWell, the Voting Rights Act was created to deal with such issues, but most of it seems to be defunct now, because a number of states were unfairly targeted (according to the Taliban Supreme Court) just because they were routinely rigging their rules to stop some citizens from voting, said citizens not being willing to just go back to working in the cotton fields for food and board after that unpleasantness occurring at Fort Sumter and Appomattox, and a few places temporally in between.
I suppose a new VRA, to pass SC scrutiny, would have to apply to all states equally. It'd also have to pass both the House and Senate with approved federal funding, be signed by the Prez (FSM bless her) and survive an immediate legal challenge the SC would rule on sometime in the next decade, with everything being on hold until then.
I'd like a magic pony that can time travel, too. I'd put the Library of Alexandria on my bucket list.
Pappenheimer
P.S. how can we push for one? First step is getting a trifecta in the next Fed election. So, TWO magic ponies! The other one has a 6-parsec stellar jump drive!
Seriously, there are so many things wrong with the US 'system' of voting that it's almost easier to list what doesn't need fixing. It's the beta version, and we can't update it in the current political climate.
Some blue states have done motor voter where gettign a driver's license you must opt out in order not to register to vote.
ReplyDeleteRe: Wagers
ReplyDeleteThere happened something of this kind on Twitter during the past few weeks in Germany.
A University professor and renowned politologist, Johannes Varwick (who is mostly known for his "pro-diplomacy"* stance on the war in Ukraine) offered to donate 500 Euros to an Ukrainian child charity if someone could prove that an anonymous critic known as "Lena4Berger" would be a real person with the right credentials and not a "NATO psyop". The critic went to two famous lawyers who certified who she was (without dropping her real identity) and had the right background. She exactly did what Varwick demanded. Varwick tried to bail out of the reward, and "Berger" publicly announced that she would donate the money for him.
Sometimes you have to let people run into traps they build for themselves and (to use the soccer picture) use the penalty given to you to score a goal.
*read: pro-Kremlin
@Dr. Brin: Just saw the newest episode on Isaac Arturs YT channel, who did mention you more than once.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IgygSomuc4
Stonekettle warning about Politifact and other so-called fact checkers. The post he's referring to claims that Kamala is lying when she says, "Trump's Project 2025" would "go after birth control and ban abortion nationwide," because Trump says he wouldn't do so and disavows Project 2025.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Trump and his hardcore cronies have REPEATEDLY said they plan on coming for birth control next and outlawing abortion at the nation level.
But here's PBS, reposting @politifact simping for Trump.
You CANNOT trust these fucking people. Not Politifact, not Snopes, not any of them. Once they turned "fact-checking" into a for-profit business and got themselves billionaire and big business sponsors and started getting paid to police social media, they became the very lies they warn you about.
re: Supreme Court overhaul. Sen. Ron Wyden makes his move.
ReplyDeleteFact Act. https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/factact.html
ReplyDelete'Pro-diplomacy'
ReplyDeleteDefinitely ASAT, only the sincerity of the peace-proposer wasn't in question...
'City on the Edge of Forever', a Star Trek original episode, had a time branch where a committed, charismatic pacifist delayed the entry of the US into WWII so that the Axis won. Harlan Ellison wrote that, iirc, and Kirk doesn't get to Kobayashi Maru his way to save the universe AND the girl.
Pappenheimer
Oger, sounds like Varwick doesn't have your respect - is he a Quisling fanboy?
matthew,
ReplyDeleteBut 50% of Americans eligible to vote do not bother to do so.
We've been after these voters for a couple of generations now with less and less success.
What do you propose for reaching them and getting them to give enough of a damn to vote?
I voted in EVERY election as soon as I was old enough, but that is the Boy Scout in me. It's a duty. It's also rare. I sincerely doubt an appeal to duty to non-scouts will work with the youngest generation.
How would I build youth enthusiasm?
DeleteEnact policy that directly tackles problems that youth want. To the credit of Biden / Pelosi, this is exactly what the current administration have done.
Examples that passed:
Student Loan reform and forgiveness, enacted and blocked by SCOTUS (mostly).
Massive infrastructure investment. Often claimed by the same GOP members that voted against it.
FTC action against corporate monopolies.
Childcare vouchers.
Examples in progress (e.g. bills have been written but not passed):
Expanded Child Tax Credit.
Increase of corporate tax rate.
SCOTUS Reform. (YAY my senator, Wyden).
Codify Roe in 50 states.
Responsible gun ownership laws.
Big 3rd rail that would be popular with the youth and left but probably net increased voters:
End arms support for Israel.
Prosecute Israeli war crimes including against Netanyahu.
Why didn't Biden get the increase in youth / left voters? Mostly because our legacy media is actively in the tank for Trump / GOP at this point due to corporate ownership and access journalism.
Harris *is* getting a big bump in popularity with youth / leftists compared to Biden, because she is emblematic of one of the best ways to attract non-voters.
She represents kicking the damn boomer generation out of leadership.
Out with the old, in with the new.
I get that there are ways to make them enthusiastic.
DeleteProblem is they don't vote. Mostly.
If we can't peel away your centrists as our host thinks is possible, the only choice I see left to us is figuring out how to perform the miracle of getting to the young to ACTUALLY vote.
I like some (not all) of what was done legislatively, but that's wonky stuff for motivating votes.
I'm not trying to be cynical here, though. I'm addressing your belief that our host's tactics don't work and asking what do do about increasing youth voting.
Alfred - the percentage of registered voter that vote in the USA is not that far from the norm
ReplyDeleteThe real deviation is the percentage of eligible voters who are registered
Agreed. A disappointing truth over here is that young people got the franchise through the rarest of events. An Amendment got passed because they could be drafted and couldn't vote. But... they don't vote (on average) until they get much older.
DeleteAlfred - I suspect our youngsters don't vote in the same numbers as us old fogeys - but they ARE "registered" in similar numbers and voting is dead easy
ReplyDeleteHere I can drop into a polling station in the week running up to the voting Saturday - there are more locations open on the Saturday
I am NOT using the "reply" bit as it means that if there are a number of comments I do not see the "reply"
ReplyDelete@Pappenheimer:
ReplyDeleteVarwick steadfastly proposes that, because Ukraine can't win, they should enter negotiations and the West should deliver arms. Ukraine should "finnlandize" and become neutral.
Kiev has labeled him to be a Kremlin propagandist.
'Finlandize'?
ReplyDeleteWell, Finland is now a NATO member, so...
A surge in young voters is one of several reasons I believe the polls are wrong. Still, don't vount your chickens before hatched.
ReplyDeleteFrom the wisest book, BORED OF THE RINGS.
"FATE SINGS A MOURNFUL TUNE,
"FOR HE WHOSE CAMPAIGN PEAKS TOO SOON."
If things get too blatant, the powers will act to eliminate Eric Robinson and maybe Vance and maybe Trump before they can bring down everything the oligarchy has built.
Pedant mode engaged...
ReplyDelete"For fortune hums a mournful tune
for those whose campaigns peak too soon"
Of course, my copy is missing, so I could be just as wrong
Pappenheimer
Dr Brin:
ReplyDeleteIf things get too blatant, the powers will act to eliminate Eric Robinson and maybe Vance and maybe Trump before they can bring down everything the oligarchy has built.
They might want to, but they can't. Or rather, if they do, it will hurt more than help the goal. Eliminating the deplorable candidates may stanch some of the drain of Republican and independent voters, but that will be more than compensated by the loss of enthusiasm from the MAGAts. They've bet the farm on a campaign of white Christian grievance, and lost the support of everyone else.
The smart move would be to make friends rather than enemies of the Democratic Party.
Pappenheimer... I love being corrected! ;-) by a fellow BOTR geek! (gobble, gobble, gobble, gobble...)
ReplyDeleteLH that depends on HOW they remove Trump or the others...
@ Tony Fisk: Yes, that did not age well for this World-Explainer.
ReplyDeleteOGH should look into how many bright minds have been corrupted by you-know-whom, because it is an angle he usually does not mention. I believe that the War on Professions is in a much worse situation.
Larry,
ReplyDelete...that will be more than compensated by the loss of enthusiasm from the MAGAts.
Martyrdom might not work that way. In my darker, cynical moods I believe they'd form a religion around him after that. You might already be of the opinion that construction is underway.
Der Oger,
Wow. As if Ukraine wasn't already Finlandized before 2014.
They all should be careful for what they wish.
Finland isn't populated by cowards.
Duncan,
Some of our states have made it very easy with de facto registration, automatic mail-in ballot delivery, and early opening of the polling stations. I live in one such state... but the young still don't vote in large enough numbers to warrant attention from most candidates. Lip service is given at best.
I'd LOVE to see them voting in large numbers. Even if many of them vote for the 'wrong' candidate, I'd cheer them on.
Ukraine ‘demolished’?:
Deletehttps://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ukraine-putin-zelenskyy-0f4d539aa73a943474d779716e5fe42a
@Alfred Differ: Four years ago, I'd have said that your domestic politics are way crazier than ours, and that our society is way more stable. Now, we are rapidly deteriorating.
ReplyDeleteChaos is a ladder.
@Alfred Differ:
ReplyDeleteConsider the following scenario:
1) Trump is elected.
2) Warsaw, the Baltics, and Scandinavia (and maybe France and Great Britain) say "Fuck you DC, Fuck You, Berlin, let's kill the Bear now when he is weakest, nuclear threats be damned."
Both Poland and Finnland could, theoretically, field more troops than Russia currently can deploy to fight them off AND wage war in Ukraine AND keep the Empire together.
Don't forget those Finnish girl Scouts I keep talking about.
DeleteAlfred Differ:
ReplyDeleteIn my darker, cynical moods I believe they'd form a religion around him after that. You might already be of the opinion that construction is underway.
I don't disagree. But I don't think that religion would benefit the Republican Party or the oligarchs any more than Naziism benefited the German masters of the universe who thought they could control them.
Trump cultists are more likely to commit acts of domestic terrorism than they are to vote for other Republicans.
Der Oger:
ReplyDeleteConsider the following scenario:
1) Trump is elected.
2) Warsaw, the Baltics, and Scandinavia (and maybe France and Great Britain) say "Fuck you DC, Fuck You, Berlin, let's kill the Bear now when he is weakest, nuclear threats be damned."
A similar plausible scenario is that the lame duck Biden administration decides the same thing--probably not to send American troops, but to supply intel and weapons with no strings attached.
Dr Brin:
ReplyDeleteLH that depends on HOW they remove Trump or the others...
Well, two white, gun-loving Republicans have already shot at the king and missed. Even J.D. Vance is having a hard time selling, "Rhetoric from Democrats is endangering Trump." A pattern is forming which doesn't fit that narrative.
A feel-good meme worth spreading. It's worth reading the whole thing at the non-paywalled link.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Sep27-9.html
...
We say all of this as prelude to talking about a story from The Washington Post that may not be overtly political, but that we think is political nonetheless. It starts with a woman named Denaesha Gonzalez, who lives in Nashville, TN, and who was visiting her local Target with her 2-year-old son in tow. While shopping the baby aisle, she noticed a less-than-$20 purse that someone had left on the shelf. Given her own experience, Gonzalez had a pretty good idea of the story that purse was telling: A mother had wanted to buy it, but after buying necessary baby supplies, realized the money just wasn't there, and had to cut the purse out of the budget.
This caused Gonzalez to do two things. First, she took a brief (17-second) video of the purse on the shelf. Second, she posted the video to TikTok, with the caption "She deserved the purse" imposed on top of the footage, and the note: "To the Mother who chose themselves last, you deserve the world tonight and always."
The video, as you might guess, went viral, and has been viewed by over 20 million people, with well over 15,000 comments. Among the folks who saw the video is Cecily Bauchman, who is a "mom influencer" with over 2 million followers. She posted her own video, in which she mentioned the Gonzalez video while visiting a Target, buying a $100 gift card, and hiding the card inside a package of diapers with a note "Hey! You deserve that special 'you' thing. You are amazing!"
Thus commenced the #shedeservedthepurse challenge; thus far, many thousands (possibly tens of thousands) of women have followed Bauchman's lead, and have hidden gift cards (or cash) and notes within packages of things commonly purchased by new moms. At least 200 of the beneficiaries have posted their own videos, expressing gratitude for the unexpected pick-me-up. If you're into that sort of thing, watching a few videos of women giving, or receiving the gift cards, might just be a pick-YOU-up.
In short, if that is not evidence of a group consciousness among women, we don't know what is. And if Donald Trump does lose this election, it will be substantially because he and his three Supreme Court justices unleashed forces they did not fully understand, and could not counteract.
feel good indeed
DeleteThe Dorkus gets it right:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/27/putin-russia-invasion-war-ukraine/
Israel killed Hezbollah leader Nasrallah yesterday. Wow. Israel has been doing a masterful job of killing Hezbollah's leadership during the last few weeks. I've read that Israel's plan was to knock out Hezbollah's electronic means of communications so that its leaders had to meet in person, then to target those meetings.
ReplyDeleteMost of the world is going to condemn Israel. Most of the world is going to be unabashed in their hatred of Jews. Sigh. I wonder if some of the more strident antisemitic countries will outlaw the religion.
I have been told that Nasrallah was not well loved by most Lebanese. Back when I worked for the Ohio government, one of my co-workers was a Lebanese-Christian who fled the country because of Hezbollah. One day she was talking about how her mother had been listening to a news broadcast that featured Nasrallah giving a speech. Her mother said something along the lines of, "He's yapping like a dog." I was told that was a terrible insult.
ReplyDeleteGMT:
ReplyDeleteMost of the world is going to condemn Israel. Most of the world is going to be unabashed in their hatred of Jews.
That's one thing you and I are on the same side of.
I have a hard time reconciling my fellow liberals rooting for the eradication of Israel "from the river to the sea," and not simply tolerating terrorism to that end, but celebrating it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/opinion/israel-hezbollah-hamas.html
ReplyDelete...
The immediate trigger and goal of the war was a Hamas-Iranian interest to scuttle the Biden team’s diplomatic initiative to forge Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia into a ring of peace.
The Iranian-Hamas counterstrategy was to ignite a ring of fire around Israel, using Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq and West Bank militants armed by Iran with weapons smuggled through Jordan. The Iranian strategy is exquisite from Tehran’s point of view: Destroy Israel by sacrificing as many Palestinians and Lebanese as necessary but never risk a single Iranian life. The Iranians are ready to die to the last Lebanese, the last Palestinian, the last Syrian and the last Yemeni to eliminate Israel (and distract the world from the Iranian regime’s abuses of its own people and imperialist control over Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria).
Still, this is also true:
DeleteThe problem for Israelis and the Jewish people is that while the Netanyahu government was right in its diagnosis that this was a war of annihilation, it refused to conduct the war in the only way that could hope to bring success — because that strategy ran counter to the political interests of the prime minister and the messianic ideological interests of his coalition.
Israel faces an existential threat from the outside, and its prime minister and his allies have been prioritizing their own political and ideological interests ahead of that. They have even lately resurrected their judicial coup attempt to crush the Israeli Supreme Court — in the middle of a war of national survival while hostages rot in Gaza. It is one of the most shameful episodes in Jewish history, and shame on the AIPAC pro-Israel lobby in Washington for not speaking out against it.
Honest government ads has made a video for the 2024 election:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHuMjIhS6t0
@Larry: This is why I think the best position in this conflict is "outside" of it. We have Iran & its death cult proxies, and we have a corrupt, almost fascist government in Israel which does everything to prolong the war and destroy their own democracy.
ReplyDeleteIsrael should receive military support, but only under the condition that Netanjahu and his cabinet resign, and maybe are extradited to Den Haag. Netanjahu's political career is like a vampire: Unless you drag it into the sunlight, put a stake in it's heart and stuff his mouth with garlic, he always will rise again.
And speaking of lame duck presidents, I'd rather see those aircraft carrier groups in the Black Sea.
You'd have to get Turkey's permission to get a US naval force into the Black Sea, unless we have helicarriers I don't know about.
ReplyDeleteAlso, re: Israel, the country is not facing 'an existential threat' at this time. There is no military or alliance of militaries in the Mideast capable of defeating the IDF. Hamas and Hezbollah can do harm, but exactly how many armored brigades do they have?
The most significant threat I see to Israel's existence is in world perception, and the US is still providing financial, military, and political support. I can think of only one way to halt that support, and the genocide would have to be obvious and over the top. I expect Netanyahu to push the envelope, though.
Pappenheimer
P.S. even with Turkish permission, I suspect the USN wouldn't want to put large fleet units into a landlocked sea next to an open war. Mahan's ghost would be screaming in their ears.
Calling the Israeli government "almost fascist" is a vast overstatement but I understand why you would say that.
ReplyDeleteIt's too much to ask folks to parse for subtlety. Like tha almost civil war divide between Tel Aviv inhabitants and those of Jerusalem. Or the way Rules for Collateral Harm have changed each generation since the horrors of WWII firebombing whole cities. And the Pager incident was 'modern' in that sense - some innocent deaths but a large majority well-targeted enemies. But Netanyahu and the Israeli Haredim do not consider Arab civilians to be human enough for that calculus to apply... and hence they are lured into violating those rations when shooting back at Hamas monsters who herd civilians ahead of them as human shields. N is a war criminal. But ideally both Lebanese and Gazans will eventually be rid of these monsters.
ReplyDeleteThe irony of Shiite ayatollahs being 'champions' of the Palestinian cause is wrenching. But this is what's happened after a lifetime of Saudi refusal to help Palestinians just get on with life.
Turkey is building two naval corvettes for Ukraine. But might not let them leave the Black Sea. I keep wondering why Ukraine doesn't just buy a couple elsewhere and use them to go after RF oil tankers and anything North Korean.
ReplyDeleteonward
ReplyDeleteonward
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ReplyDelete