I keep saying it. You kids survived covid and boomers survived '68. We can survive this. Just buckle down and fight. As I am doing here. By proposing judo tactics instead of grunting sumo.
Today -- three topical issues. Two of them somewhat overblown and one of them truly important.
1. I tried to cover the important one, last time. It's the only truly central issue in this U.S. presidential election year, and one that Democrats always ignore.
That issue is the vastly consistent right wing, all-out war vs. all fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. Indeed, their core agenda is to wage war against the very notion of fact as a thing.
No other matter is as important! Because MOST other matters - from climate change to election denialism, to racism, to abortion, to the state of the economy - will be settled, quickly, if we restore disproof of lies.
Indeed, last time I spoke of a way that Joe Biden could raise this as a readily achievable goal. If nothing else, just proposing that method would emphasize that Democrats are generally the ones standing up for use of actual, demonstrable facts...
2. ... just as Democrats are the ones who don't want immunity from rampant law-breaking by presidents. And yes, the 'ruling' for blanket presidential criminal immunity, by the Trump-appointed (and blatantly corrupt) Supreme Court majority, was so utterly insane and treasonous that it shocked even cynical Rachel Maddow.
So, why aren't Democrats eager to claim and use that immunity, while they are in office? All those jokes about Biden dispatching 'Seal Team Six' miss the point. The real reason is simple. They don't need it.
This explains the desperation of high goppers to make the whole thing all-or-nothing. They know that if we go back to a nation of transparency and laws, using calm disproof to lance the Kremlin-run lie pustules, then sooner or later the blackmail will spill and hundreds of them will see their darkest secrets revealed, changing that crime ratio from double to triple digits. And John Roberts will be remembered by history next to Roger Taney.
That is why they must now go all-in brownshirt, as forecast in their horrendous Mein Kampf called Project 2025. For many of them, the only alternative to prison, or shamed retirement, or just universal ridicule is to emulate 1934's Night of the Long Knives. Perhaps with a triggering Reichstag Fire.
There are things that JoeB and the dems could say, that they aren't saying.
Example: every lame argument by the suborned SC majority - that 'presidents shouldn't be distracted from hard choices by legal second guessing' - could be satisfied by something called "slow process," where presidents might limit their time dealing with legal matters to (say) an externally prioritized ten hours a week. Slow... yet with justice wheels still rolling.
That plus an added layer of 'presumption of good faith' in post-hoc jury instructions should enable a president with decent legal advisors to navigate difficult ground, as Commander-In-Chief - as presidents have done for 240 years. Both of those clarifications could be arranged by legislation, negotiated in good faith, with an aim at finding a sweet spot between presidential flexibility and ... the Law. But that was never the intent of this corrupt SC majority.
Instead, they gave us a Tyrant's Bill of Spites.
I'd go deeper into that travesty. But what'd be the point? No one will care about my 'slow process' proposal... nor my suggestions re: the War on Facts. (Though I may do a midweek posting about the latter, in more detail.)
What I WILL spend the rest of this missive on is matter #3. The whole 'age thing.'
== A sweet-spot win-win-win re: the 'issue' of Joe Biden's age ==
3. Joe Biden's poor performance in the first debate is now history, with lingering distraction ripples all over. (So much for his being 'jacked up'!) Several tiring foreign trips likely roused his lifelong stuttering debility... but he also admits now that he needs to nap more.
Okay then, it happens that I have another Big Suggestion, how JoeB could deal with this matter decisively, in what could be a win-win-win-win for Democrats. And for the nation, world and future.
But first let's deal with the Fox-o-sphere ravings - "Do you want a geezer answering that terrible phone call at 3 am?"
Well, yes, I do, if it's this geezer. For several reasons.
3a. It's the appointments, stupid! We are a nation of institutions. For those 3am calls, we have a Defense Department and a State Department and a Cabinet filled with civil servants* and appointed officials. And selecting the latter is the President's most vital task.
Biden has done so, superbly! 5000 or so skilled, dedicated, brilliant professionals - without a single legal blemish among them - replaced Donald Trump's 5000 horrifically corrupt, stoopid dogmatists and Kremlin agents like Flynn & Manafort. Plus a few potemkin semi-'adults' like Tillerson and Kelly, who later denounced their ex-boss as a living monster.**
A man - even elderly - who works hard to appoint folks of character - in the caliber of Antony Blinken, Lloyd Austin, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris - is someone who is unafraid of being in a room filled with smarter people. That's diametrically opposite to Two Scoops Trump. Moreover, with such Very Best Folks working out all the plausible options for him, I am unafraid that such a wise grampa might face decisions at 3am.
Again: It's the appointments, stupid. And with those 5000 on the job... and 100,000 qualified civil servants protected from the Project 2025 plan (to return to a Spoils System)... I can sleep at night. And I do not care if Grampa takes some naps.
3b. Joe cares. Being human, he might resist a bit. Still, he will confront the matter of the age thing, if it gets worse after re-election. At which point he'll simply retire, allowing a vigorously qualified and now fully trained VP Kamala to take his place. (Down below, in comments if someone reminds me, I will describe how Democratic Presidential candidates always choose a qualified running mate and all but one GOP nominee chose some living horror.)
Was Kamala my first choice? No. But she is calm and balanced and totally qualified, and we'd be just fine.
But still, I'm not done with the 'age thing.' In fact, here comes my crackpot idea!
== A judo move for Biden to get a win-win-win-win out of the 'age thing' ==
This one wasn't in my book Polemical Judo. But it's in the same, jiu jitsu spirit. The sort of move that could stagger the opposition, leaving them speechless and then shrill, while proving to the public how serious and thoughtful you are... and so much more.
3c. Call for 'debates' among the top tier of Democrats!
Yep. Do this now! Joe Biden could announce:
"Look, I had a bad debate. I and millions of others don't think it means that much. But I do listen! And I know some of you out there are concerned, Moreover, unlike my opponent, I know that wishing something and yelling it doesn't make it so.
"Hey, I am showing some signs of time's passage! I surround myself with the best folks the nation has to offer and I have vast experience. And some say I'm generally kind of a wise-guy...
"But I won't be obstinate. So let's test this!
"I hearby invite six of the top members of my party... truly fine and brilliant men and women with utterly proved chops as leaders... to join me onstage for a series of three forums, leading up to the Democratic National Convention, a month from now in Chicago!
"These would not be 'debates' as such. We won't be attacking each other... much. But it will accomplish many things at once!
- First, it would test me! If I can hold my own with these whippersnappers, that should anchor my rightful (already-earned) place as the party nominee with joyful confidence!
- If I fail that challenge, then the best new leaders of our party - and in-future the nation - will have a chance to show what they've got, before the party convention delegates, who will then have the authority given to them by voters this spring, to choose another slate.
"I am confident they will pick Biden-Harris! But if not, I will campaign for any of these fine folks, with vigor and energy!
- This will also show the depth of the Democratic Party's bench! The public will see that there are no flukes. Any and every person on the forum stage will be blatantly better - smarter, more grownup and vastly more moral - than any and every politician in the Republican Party.
- And finally, jeepers, why should we turn down this opportunity for a vast TV audience? Let the forum participants disagree over this and that practical matter or proposal! We'll still have a great chance to present our accomplishments, plus proofs about the dangers facing our nation, our planet, civilization, freedom and our children! And a chance to disprove the other party's mountain of volcanic, poisonous lies.
"I am consulting across a wide range of wise folks. But clearly, joining me onstage will be my own chosen running mate, world respected stateswoman and my trusted friend, Vice President Kamala Harris!
"Who else? Obviously, we need Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom up there! I want Pete Buttigieg, too. I'll let Bernie, Liz and AOC thrash out among themselves which of them to send from their wing. And from the other wing...? Hey Joe Manchin! Care to come back for a few nights and try the waters? They're pretty darn foul over in Fox country. Over here we argue fairly, about true things.
"So there you have it. Unlike my opponent, who squelches any competition, who demands utter obedience and denies any possible fault, I'll admit I might be wrong when I look in a mirror and say "You still got it, kid!"
"Like any wise grampa, I'll listen to the best and wisest of later generations!
"And so, we're gonna get six of em up on stage with me. And I predict two things.
"First, you'll see a terrific future for the Democratic Party and for America!
"But also, you will see the fact that I still got it! And when I don't any longer... we have a team that will keep America great and keep America winning!
God bless you all and good night."
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=======================================
Addenda
* Project 2025 includes utter trashing of the 140 year old Civil Service Act which ended the pyrotechnic corruption of the old Spoils System. The CSA insulated civil servants to do their jobs professionally, according to the law and enabled the U.S. to efficiently win our wars, build our industry and infrastructure, have clean food and water and obey laws. Trump felt frustrated by this and he intends to end it, finishing off one of the last bulwarks against a return to 6000 years of capricious rule by inheritance brat lords.
** Here's one of my standing wager demands... which no MAGA has ever had the guts to step up to meet:
Mike Pence, James Mattis, John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, Mark Milley, Mark Esper, H.R. McMaster, Elaine Chao, Omarosa, Bill Barr... jeez, over fifty former "great guys" have authored books about what a wretchedly horrible man they worked for. All of those 'adults in the room' have been shrugged off by Trump as 'terrible people!' Well, maybe so, in one or two - or even a dozen - cases. But unquestionably, Donald Trump has been 'betrayed' by more folks who he formerly called "great guys!" than across ALL other presidencies combined!
And hence there's one thing that no Fox ravings can obscure and that no MAGA can deny.
It shows that Donald J. Two Scoops Trump is a terrible judge of character!
247 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 247 of 247Look, I'd vote for the carbon rod over rumpt. At least it served a valuable purpose.
Pappenheimer
Someone on FB:"I heard a rumor that Sarah Palin was in the running for Trump's VP. 🤣
After I stopped laughing, it hit me that she was John the Baptist to Trump Jesus."
Nancy Ott I just had that thought this morning!
Dr. Brin,
“ I NEVER FREAKING SAID THAT THERE WAS NO VIOLENCE, EVER! “ “And no one ever, ever, ever said you did. But you sure as heck implied and cited folks saying that it was not a major factor.”
- Really? Then what is this?
“Sorry Paul, but there are a dozen reasons why I do not swallow that suddenly 90% of males went incel across Eurasia and Africa and went off into the wilderness leaving their sisters behind. OMG what a stunning notion.”
“While the utterly drivel notion that a Y Chromosome Bottleneck might have happened ‘without violence’ is stunningly beyond any conceivable explanation other than PC wish-lobotomization…”
“Patrilineal groups fissioning off and many of these groups dying out" is a string of gobbledygook that simply boils down to either driving off or killing the brothers of the women lords glommed for themselves. Jeepers. What blather, worthy of a MAGA”
- Worthy of MAGA? If we were stars in an old Western my next line in the script would probably be something like, “Them’s fightin’ werds!” Seriously, comparing any reasonably normal human being to MAGA maggots is pretty low. Should we get our spears and take this outside?
And Duncan and a couple others also jumped to that conclusion. So yeah, what we have here is a failure to communicate, to be sure, but also some conclusion-jumping.
Regarding the articles: as I wrote earlier, I only floated those to point out that there are other possibilities besides harems.
to be con.t
Then there’s this:
“But what species are you a member of? Heck do you know anything at all about male reproductive strategies across ALL of mammalia?”
- I’m not at liberty to reveal my species. The best I can do there is that when I wear my Saturn lapel pin, people sometimes ask me why, and I tell them that it reminds me of home.
- ALL mammalia? Have you ever seen a beaver harem? How about a raccoon harem? Shrew, vole, mouse, pika, marmot, weasel harems? They don’t exist. Harems only happen when you have an extreme level of sexual dimorphism, as in gorillas and most baboon species. You don’t even see that in all primates, and the current level of dimorphism in humans is only around 15%. According to the fossil record, that dimorphism has been shrinking for the past 4 million years. Harems are not the normal pattern for H. sapiens at all, and if you read that book you would get it.
- The only thing I can guess about your species is that you aren’t a marmoset.
This wikipedia article does an okay job of introducing the subject.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polygyny_in_animals
Given when the Y-Chromsome Bottleneck took place, and the fact that it took place over such an enormous area - Africa and just about all of Eurasia - we probably need to look more closely at world climate at the time. The transition from horticulture to plow agriculture (which shifted the work from women’s to men’s work, as you pointed out, correlates with desiccation of the climate resulting from deforestation. That moved agriculture away from the “hilly flanks of the fertile crescent” directly into river valleys. And that is when the major shift from chiefdoms to states began.
"The Y-chromosome bottleneck varied depending on location. It was more pronounced in Europe, the Near East, and South Asia, and less so in East and Southeast Asia." - Notice that the areas that suffered less from the bottleneck, East and Southeast Asia, are regions that maintained horticulture into modern times, and experienced far less deforestation and concomitant desiccation.
Then there’s the whole bit about genetics as deterministic of human behavior - a major arrow in the quiver of authoritarian bigots everywhere, and a gross oversimplification of how humans operate.
Paul SB
Slim,
Riverworld was super popular with nerdy types when I was in high school, but I was dirt poor in those days, so it went on my list of one-of-these-days books. But now I'm curious. What about it do you think would grab the attention of an anthropologist? Anthro is the study of humans, so there's a lot of things that get their attention.
Paul SB
Pappenheimer,
I did a paper on the Indus Valley Civ back when I was a wee undergrad lad. It was quite fascinating. My university library had a copy of John Marshall's 2-volume excavation report from the 1920s - fun stuff to dig through, and not just for the pictures. It was as much an education in the biases of the times as it was in Mohenjo-Daro (The Mound of the Dead - good setting for a zombie movie? Or are you more the vampire type?). I kind of forgot about them, though, because excavation in Pakistan was really spotty, survey was almost unheard of, and the bombshell coming out of Mayaland at the time was pretty distracting. I've had them on my mind recently, though. Glad you mentioned it.
Paul SB
Unser Oger,
The most impressive book I have seen on neuroscience that is somewhat comprehensible to non-scientists is Robert Sapolsky's "Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst." It's thick as a brick and requires some major concentration to get through, but it's well worth it. My copy is scrawled with marginalia on nearly every page.
A much easier author to read is Dan Ariely, who's a behavioral economist. His most popular work is called "Predictably Irrational" though I wouldn't suggest you stop there. His newest book, "Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things" is like an update to Michael Shermer's old "Why People Believe Weird Stuff" and was a good (and timely) read. "The Upside of Irrationality" and especially "The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty" might be worth your attentions.
https://www.amazon.com/Misbelief-Rational-People-Believe-Irrational/dp/0063280426/ref=sr_1_1?crid=14PYJFKCMUWNC&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.OsermKuIy7wqZNEpZtsXfql5zz8LkQF_hP0W6UkNPL9tCCS3CcjtXd-3djDWV1VvaFuyKuwh_MV1CIBl2fMLPJFS-GiH6e3r3O3KlGhWKWMoOkb3jeNCyjbbpLuNGqUw9ToiEr7DK-0-0DW2XDgWxEuwNzyRoFHQMO6DL9nk4b3VoKHp5REJckHweW007WDbThmBX7XIi1ojHk8iWpx-VNhZpC81MGwLI-ol9kdCiD-PIxkR2Sz4QNjTPSGtNcSyv0e9G08aW6-QJbxvvfOZwlmbZKfOn8kHGb7FL8yDNsA.quKNiHqn1samrPBPj_mEJTTIjPggYzoKRshoJr3PqYA&dib_tag=se&keywords=dan+ariely&qid=1720757791&s=audible&sprefix=dan+ariely%2Caudible%2C230&sr=1-1-catcorr
https://www.amazon.com/Predictably-Irrational-audiobook/dp/B0014EAHNQ/ref=sr_1_1?crid=14PYJFKCMUWNC&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.gWFyKt65gFUOlsqKbGz5-gYUO8B9iBxkPfUAiZvRHzm41wJ1Ls0ET4_IwQesffYC9TZS83qIXRPuDNslLMn3vRneee5OUUOeuecQ7Y33bxbZmsMRTsZIIy9VPwwuwsra.utjcwvUCO7oZ15nYUkiaDXLBVojSGsCei5hDafQ47ro&dib_tag=se&keywords=dan+ariely&qid=1720757791&s=audible&sprefix=dan+ariely%2Caudible%2C230&sr=1-1
https://www.amazon.com/Honest-Truth-About-Dishonesty-Everyone-Especially/dp/0062183613/ref=sr_1_3?crid=14PYJFKCMUWNC&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.OsermKuIy7wqZNEpZtsXfql5zz8LkQF_hP0W6UkNPL9tCCS3CcjtXd-3djDWV1VvaFuyKuwh_MV1CIBl2fMLPJFS-GiH6e3r3O3KlGhWKWMoOkb3jeNCyjbbpLuNGqUw9ToiEr7DK-0-0DW2XDgWxEuwNzyRoFHQMO6DL9nk4b3VoKHp5REJckHweW007WDbThmBX7XIi1ojHk8iWpx-VNhZpC81MGwLI-ol9kdCiD-PIxkR2Sz4QNjTPSGtNcSyv0e9G08aW6-QJbxvvfOZwlmbZKfOn8kHGb7FL8yDNsA.quKNiHqn1samrPBPj_mEJTTIjPggYzoKRshoJr3PqYA&dib_tag=se&keywords=dan+ariely&qid=1720757791&s=audible&sprefix=dan+ariely%2Caudible%2C230&sr=1-3-catcorr
Jared Yates Sexton focuses on the U.S., which is no surprise given his journalism background, but some of his works get into some really dig factors you can apply to modern humans generally. His latest, "The Midnight Kingdom: A History of Power, Paranoia, and the Coming Crisis" is pretty stunning. I also enjoyed "The Man They Wanted Me to Be."
https://www.amazon.com/Midnight-Kingdom-History-Paranoia-Coming/dp/B09YJVK3XX/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2A9X3CMOD8LHU&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.xCabkBkGTtc9K1Hqrqf9iDr3OsXWhH5aO2LIcBM-uinPJv8gvOUEpg1QWhtbMBFkMX_9XtJRXhoD_ewD8WoVp6aWFKZlniiTfK2QoF3biSvc6Ye3W_c-Q7eAZn8eszU9kHYz_xS_Pu6vdUMbkZVByg8HLI9p-ghvok4-HNTYZP5MIsaCk_uok3lEmezwEmY9p2b7FRS-TPMZckIng9TA1KjvIdIf2TbMPXOclLpKaUUs7D2YUO55mpnqKQs9MIofHNjm8Mphj32u0jZiwozDTw0793_QffJcV3IJfG4OrYA.RJzX9mJKGHJB8qGed05YL8-PcuELa-qZDECcMdd_qWc&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+midnight+kingdom&qid=1720758230&s=audible&sprefix=the+midnight+kingdom%2Caudible%2C658&sr=1-1
con.t
Leonard Mlodinow is an author who I would say is not up to Sapolsky's level, but in terms of academic skill he beats out both of the last two. I can recommend a list. One that I both love and hate ate the same time is called, "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives." It starts off with some pretty stunning examples of how the most successful people we are all supposed to look up to got where they were largely because of chance factors, and the same chance factors end up taking them out. There are whole categories of professions where we are expected to praise people for their great talents and acumen, and it all falls completely to chance. Naturally business is one of these. Unfortunately, most of the book deals with the mathematics of chance, tracing its history to the development of the modern statistical tools that would make fools of most of the people who claim to "merit" their power and fortune. If you really love math, as my son does, you'll love it. If you're in it for the human story, get it from the library and read the first three and the last chapter. On the other hand, "Subliminal: How Your Unconscious Mind Rules Your Behavior" and "Emotional: How Feelings Shape Our Thinking" are spot on. "Elastic: Flexible Thinking in a Time of Change" is a fun one, too.
https://www.amazon.com/The-Drunkards-Walk-audiobook/dp/B001BSJHRC/ref=sr_1_2?crid=20RYMA22R4P6E&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.IdoOCz3QQSEYBY3XILK5GFzDu2m-Po7jjcdQmxlBbd5_nJXlqwpPsg22Ia5R2_QJGts10-f-fN9nh4YBgx9nxfGJmlgEs93Gisa5xgmVp--4QGxPAwCd6u8aNzIbFJcYAsrP7EiWWnsKCTFkeSs2x14dZdHkTolmsS-JNAVS8Mc04QyymxnQ5Rx7H5K8hRc6.btaf104k86nSiBy5UVCrNkXs4ueQE9lHj2135aIUm-k&dib_tag=se&keywords=leonard+mlodinow+books&qid=1720758379&s=audible&sprefix=leonard+mlo%2Caudible%2C173&sr=1-2
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B007WZU3E4?plink=JAAKkyz22VMDyk0H&pf_rd_r=6E6R98BT4BF932MXC3YP&pf_rd_p=96ab6d04-5523-43c9-882d-29e41898cb10&ref_=adblp13naprt_0_0_im
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09FYFKD2D?plink=3kiibBe55QrVnEI3&pf_rd_r=NXB8JVYCRB8XDQ758NSH&pf_rd_p=96ab6d04-5523-43c9-882d-29e41898cb10&ref_=adblp13naprt_0_1_im
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077BDVXGJ?plink=3kiibBe55QrVnEI3&pf_rd_r=NXB8JVYCRB8XDQ758NSH&pf_rd_p=96ab6d04-5523-43c9-882d-29e41898cb10&ref_=adblp13naprt_0_0_im
I have mentioned Helen Fisher here before, because she created a model of how a handful of neurochemicals and hormones drive human temperament, the genetic half of personality. The name of the book looks like some pop-psych fluff, which is unfortunate. Studying the biology of romantic love with neuroimaging is her life's work, so you can probably see why her titles sound like they do.
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Him-Why-Her-Helen-Fisher-audiobook/dp/B001QCZTPM/ref=sr_1_3?crid=QLON4VSKZKBS&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.qviQVlbhmUcG3Gs5XIH3YR0i6M68x2sieGHCRe-_B6YQRu8AeJQdr3cm6HrMUOuqlF2poJkAVjgiAbgkENr-rKrq_FvLmz7eOlsSn_xlDRNHMbAdqUQJt1qA2y8arUSpdCBj9B4A5w8HPxkVU1lOAXjrnIxmaD8ViRvvNw_R2u45iuih7RfiLvbzJCJNDe_qw5YPEl2mXJXEddWPoXfOWD5C_yvVVvU5R5_YbT2kKQ39X8M0eL5qnZi1Q2XhlAR6met80q2CMbfTJKk95K1psrbiCd7Ch6yoCu2-AqDP-CA.CmCo73LpVQ105uxzy_JDsNYh3jff9GhL8Pl0q9iLMmE&dib_tag=se&keywords=helen+fisher&qid=1720759148&s=audible&sprefix=helen+fisher+%2Caudible%2C308&sr=1-3-catcorr
My son just got up and is demanding my attention, so I'll have to come back later.
Paul SB
Paul,
Glad to help spark old memories. One thing that deCamp and Alan Foster both pointed out was that there are far more 'citadels of mystery' than there is funding to study them. Who lived here? What happened to them? For people who left no writing behind, the mysteries are even deeper - and even in 'historical' times we only start off knowing about the wealthiest tip of the pyramid. I'd bankrupt myself to buy a Clarke time-viewer, even with blocks on the 'controversial' date/locations like 4/3/33 AD Judea.
Pappenheimer
Sapolsky's book is well worth the effort. Even after only a few chapters, you can walk away with a buzz of confusion in your head... which is about right to have when someone wants to offer a simple just-so explanation for why humans do what they do.
Read a few more chapters into it and you'll eventually get to cultural impacts. That stuff got very depressing... but also liberating in a kind of way. Helps me see which heavy rocks need pushing.
PSB,
...and the same chance factors end up taking them out.
Yep. I think my first blunt encounter with this was the Drunkard's Walk idea as it related to investment fund managers. They REALLY don't know, but can't sell shares in a fund if investors believe that. We all wind up better off* in index** funds with essentially no management performed except to level the fund occasionally***.
* As long as people think investing is a useful place to put retirement money, the pot grows each year keeping demand slightly higher than supply. Hence S&P's average 9% yoy growth. It's mostly supply and demand. No genius required. At that rate, your money doubles about every 8 years if no one is bleeding off their cut.
** Of course there are sector indexes too which kinda defeat the purpose... but only kinda. There ARE cycles to our animal passions though they are hard to time.
*** NVidia is going wild right now. It's shares alone are WAY out balancing the others in essentially any index that tracks it. When that happens, index funds turn into non-index funds because they lose their diversification.
Re: time machines/viewers, anthropology, models, and even NVidia
It's hard for me not to lapse into a computational psychohistory balad :)
Re: good Dem slogans
Perhaps a bit of romanticism from one who loved both Scottish and American dreams of independence - Robert Burns:
"Freedom and Whisky"
Hal Sparks is correct when he says that George Stephanopoulos kept asking the wrong question in the Biden interview. The important thing is not, "If you stay in the race and lose to Trump, how will you feel?" At least not unless offset with, "If you exit the race and the Dems still lose to Trump, how will you feel?"
Not sure I'm going to make it through Designated Survivor Season 3.
The point of the first episode suddenly seems to be to demonstrate how much they are able to say "shit" and "fuck" on television.
Pappenheimer,
Yeah, if I were a billionaire, I can think of few good things I would use that money for besides ego-stroking. Actually, the Harappan Civ did have writing, but the only occurrences that have survived are on tiny little seals, which the excavators found just about everywhere. Strangely, I found somebody selling wall-sized replicas, which I'm tempted to get, but Spousal Unit gets on me about my crazy, dopamine-fueled spending habits.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CNDB441J/?coliid=I2M2GXMXDA0JQ2&colid=EXU7303C4J7V&psc=0&ref_=list_c_wl_lv_ov_lig_dp_it
Paul SB
Alfred,
If people took more time to read and less time to witlessly conform, whole industries would sink into oblivion.
Paul SB
Imagine Clarence Thomas resigning from SCOTUS to be "Drumph"!'s veep, it could work out well. Especially if the ticket is buried in a Biden-Harris landslide.
I wonder if "Drumpf!" could persuade Clarence Thomas to resign from SCOTUS to be his veep? Might work out for the best...
Jeez Paul, have you suddenly got access to a trove of old-style Sudafeds?
Dr. Brin,
How's that Marmoset pattern working out for you?
BTW: Did you watch the Carol Burnett clip? I thought Tim Conway made for a fun Hitler, though obviously not nearly on level with Charlie Chaplin.
Paul SB
Pappenheimer,
I just remembered that I once ran a Doctor Who RPG campaign that took place in the Indus Valley. It centered around a band of American NeoNazis who got hold of a time machine and brought their arsenal back to help the "Aryans" take over the world. Does that sound like it could be a Heinlein plot?
Paul SB
Stonekettle on Threads:
https://www.threads.net/@stonekettle
Joe Biden TOO Alert, Cognitive, and Prepared At Press Conference!
"I miss the incoherence of the Trump years," David Brooks
--
@nytimes
OpEd tomorrow, probably
Timestamp 3:32 to 3:49 on this video is the Joe Biden I'm voting for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mw0npm56wn0
Doctor Brin,
My son has been on a Nine Inch Nails binge for months - happens with ASD. As if the Poly Ticks weren't band enough. I could really use some of that Sudafed, if you have any...
Head Like A Hole
Song by Nine Inch Nails
God money, I'll do anything for you
God money, just tell me what you want me to
God money, nail me up against the wall
God money, don't want everything he wants it all
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take that away from me
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take that away from me
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
God money's not looking for the cure
God money's not concerned about the sick among the pure
God money, let's go dancing on the backs of the bruised
God money's not one to choose
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take that away from me
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take it
No, you can't take that away from me
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Head like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the one you serve
You're going to get what you deserve
Yipes!
Paul SB
And here is the 10th key (major foreign/military success) for Biden
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-810103
Biden: Israel and Hamas have agreed to ceasefire, hostage deal framework
So that's Biden 10 to Trump 3.
Biden wins.
Here is an article by Carl Zimmer in the NYT that some might find interesting, given the recent conversation on ancient human history. If I did the link correctly it should be available to all.
Early Humans Left Africa Much Earlier Than Previously Thought
As some may already know fairly recently evidence has been accumulating of several waves of migration out of Africa, all much earlier than the ~50,000 year ago migration from which we are all descended. The article gives some hilights of a new study and a few other fairly recent studies.
Most of the new evidence is from genomic studies, which purportedly show evidence of multiple migrations starting as early as 370,000 years ago. There have also been some hints in the fossil record. In 2019 a skull fragment found in Greece dating "back over 210,000 years" "bears some hallmarks of modern human anatomy." And, "Paleoanthropologists have found modern-looking fossils and stone tools in Israeli caves that are estimated to be 100,000 to 130,000 years old."
Cool stuff.
"As Steve Gould once said, he always prepared for his class on human evolution by throwing away all his notes from the previous year’s lecture and rewriting his spiel." [Jerry Coyne]
NIN is not a bad binge to be on.
Darrell,
The book that I keep asking our host to read brings up the multiple migrations, though it isn't a major issue for her thesis. I often see articles, even on a cool site like Science Daily, that presents stuff the professionals have known about for a long time - sometimes decades - as if it were fresh news. Any time I spend on social media shows me that the general public is many decades behind the professionals on a whole lot of subjects.
The sad thing is, I introduce him to NIN. They're a band that is so angry I can only stand to listen to them a couple times a year, but when I do I really need it. Now my doctor is telling me that with all the summer sun I'm at risk of going manic (and our host's hyperbole habit doesn't help). And I can only go for so many grocery runs and pop in an old Moody Blues CD.
I vaguely remember you previously saying something about heritability scores, and I wanted to warn you to keep your salt shaker handy whenever you see them. There are two basic methods they use to estimate heritability: the old ANOVA method and the even older Regression method. I'm pretty sure I read about a newer, molecular method coming on line, but it doesn't seem to have caught on yet. Within both of these standard methods there are all sorts of ways that a statistician can cook the numbers to bring the results more in line with their assumptions. In some cases this is intentional dishonesty (if a group like The Heritage Foundation or the Family Research Council quotes a figure, I'd bring a bucket of salt), but I suspect that most of the time statisticians just follow the procedures they were trained to use. Most stats classes focus on the math like they have OCD, to the exclusion of comprehending the subtleties of meaning and how bias can creep in to supposedly objective procedures. This is why we can get, "Lies, damn lies, and statistics." I was very fortunate to be taught stats by a professor who double majored in math and anthro.
Paul SB
Darrell E:
NIN is not a bad binge to be on.
Probably better than Designated Survivor. :)
Paul SB,
"Riverworld was super popular with nerdy types when I was in high school..."
Maybe I hung out with the wrong crowd, but I never found anyone at my high school who even knew who Asimov was let alone read him, including my English teachers who acted like Bradbury was hardcore SF.
"But now I'm curious. What about it do you think would grab the attention of an anthropologist?"
Well, whenever discussions come up involving what people were doing x-thousand years ago, I think about the Riverworld series. I've never studied anthropology, but the first few books (especially "To Your Scattered Bodies Go") seem like they'd be of interest to someone who has. Maybe because the premise involves a controlled experiment with fixed parameters, starting with the aspect of population distribution of the thirty-six billion plus along the river, with each area hosting 60% of a particular nationality from a specific time period, 30% of another group from a different time, and 10% randomly. The individuals start forming groups which lead to city states and the factions start competing for resources. And that element is maintained in the backdrop, especially in the first few books. Farmer consistently juxtaposes culture clashes of interest and humor.
Okay Slim, it's still on my list.
Have you read Ursula LeGuin? She was the offspring of California's most famous anthropologist, Alfred Kroeber. I don't recall any of her stories getting real didactic, and she did most of her stuff back in the 70s, but I can see how growing up with a parent like that influenced her writing. "The Lathe of Heaven" and "The Left Hand of Darkness" are top of the list, just don't watch that awful HBO movie they made of Lathe - it was truly cringe.
Paul
Alfred,
I imagine that after seeing just how random reality really is, you can see how meritocracy is just as much a pipe dream as communism. Some successful people deserve their success, tons of them don't, and likely the number of people who deserve success but never get it could line up to the moon and back.
Paul SB
Paul,
Just reread a Leguin book - Tehanu, a continuation of the Earthsea trilogy. She knew she'd left some things unfinished. My subtitle for it is
***SPOILER ALERT***
Earthsea IV: Ged gets laid.
Pappenheimer
P.S. As for didactic, her Always Coming Home reaches back to her anthro roots and is pretty dam' didactic.
P.P.S. they tried to do an Earthsea series. IIRC LeGuin tossed a fit because all the main characters were played by Caucasians.
Also, communism works.
Before Alfred blows a valve, I'll add that it's fine for lifeboat survival or hunter-gatherer economics where everyone's related, knows everyone else, and there aren't any surpluses that you can't carry. Once you move beyond near-complete trust and transparency, not so much...
Pappenheimer, hoping for those machines of loving grace...
It appears that homo sap tried to slip out of Africa into Neandethal territory maybe 170,000 ya… and we got our asses kicked back into Africa. When we re-emerged, it was with dogs(!) and with (I theorize in EXISTENCE) fundamentally re-formatted brains capable of rapid cultural reprogramming of even basic perceptions and assumptions. Ass-kicking reversed – permanently.
---
Re UKLG
Ursula had a chance to nip in the bud the pyrotechnic tsunami of self-indulgent, masturbatory sanctimony-fetishism that currently dominates all major institutions of science fiction, raging endlessly about colonial-white-male oppression in the field, citing examples that never amounted to more than a clutter of peripheral (if sometimes hurtful) anecdotes, next to the GENERAL nature of the field... which was welcoming to female and minority colleagues as far back as the 1920s. She herself was lauded and well-treated (generally) in her time, suffering at-most irks and scratches (like many of us now receive, sith similar unfairness). Irks that she handled with admirable, thick-skinned wit! As did CL Moore and CJ Cherryh and Leigh Brackett and Andre Norton, Anne McCaffrey, Chip Delaney, Connie Willis and so many others. At no moment across the last century, was SF *not* the very leading sub-genre of literature as such exploratory inclusiveness.
She could and should have said so.
-------
Jeez I changed my mind. Paul’s recencies cannot be explained by Old Sudafed. Have you checked, son, whether that white powder in your coffee is actually creamer? ;-)
Paul SB
Yeah, I dig Ursula Le Guin. And her relationship to Anthropologists falls in line with her fiction thematically with intersections between cultures. Languages. Environments.
And Pappenheimer, seeing your Tehanu reference I don't think I read that one. So went to the U-LG site to re-calibrate works I've read.
There I saw a new edition "Word for World is Forest" which I recall as sort of calmly and deeply unsettling. But dear lord, who is responsible for writing the synopsis? Is it the publisher?
Get a load of this:
"When the inhabitants of a peaceful world are conquered by the bloodthirsty yumens, their existence is irrevocably altered. Forced into servitude, the Athsheans find themselves at the mercy of their brutal masters.
Desperation causes the Athsheans, led by Selver, to retaliate against their captors, abandoning their strictures against violence. But in defending their lives, they have endangered the very foundations of their society. For every blow against the invaders is a blow to the humanity of the Athsheans. And once the killing starts, there is no turning back"
For a back cover blurb? As a reader right away I'm moving on unless I already know the author or the book is recommended from a vetted source.
Yumen? Yuma. Athsheans? Anhill. Athena. Airstream. Selver? Sliver. Silver To parse this sort of nonsense I have to add multiple processing centers in my brain analogous to a cow's stomach. Selver enters the rumen. Is Selver a Yuma or an Airstream or a Milkshake? Wait What? Yuma. Arizona. Wait, Selver Silver Airstream. Burp. Whatever, I'm not flipping back pages to check. Keep chewing. I want to know what Selver is doing and pass them on to the Reticulum. Selver. Male or female? Male? Does it matter? Not really. On to the Omasum...are they a good guy or a bad guy. Good guy? On to the abomasum. Selver. Good. Male. We will code Selver as Bob, pronounced Silver. We think he's an Airstream. Continue reading.
I have great respect for writers who can force me to appropriate their painstakingly crafted/stupid book universe names without making me feel like a cow trying to eat raw oysters.
I just heard that Alec Baldwin's case was dismissed. How was it even pursued in the first place? I understand gun safety, but when you're an actor who is supposed to be handling a prop gun, is it really your responsibility to treat it the way you would a real gun?
If there's any responsibility for the death, it's with the gaffer (or whatever) who handed him a working gun with bullets in it as a prop.
Right?
It can be two things. I did think Hillary was the most qualified candidate for the office ever.
Larry?
Just what were these wonderful, best-ever, qualifications of Hillary?
Her biggest move on the world stage was "getting on the right side of history" by supporting the Arab Sring as Secretary os State.
Ok, that ended with her and the Obama administration deciding to support the overthrow of Muammar Quaddafi---which turned Libya into a failed state.
Combined with supporting attempts to overthrow Syria, these decisions ruined millions of lives across the middle east and flooded Europe with refugees. What, exactly, does ruining millions of lives qualify her to do as President?
Were you hoping she could ruin billions of lives instead of mere millions?
John,
Not sure where you would go with that - for each of your examples, please provide a better course of action.
1) ignore the Arab Spring? Or send arms to the brutal dictators who were being overthrown?
Save Ghadaffi, a well-known friend of the US?
2) Support the Syrian government, an egregiously murderous pack of thugs? Or again, ignore the rebels?
Would playing King Log have been better? Pretty sure millions of lives were about to be ruined no matter what the US did. Your vision is hindsight.
My regret about the Clintons is that they did not manage to get better health care for US citizens during his administration.
Pappenheimer
Slim,
You try to create names for SF or fantasy stories that are 1) thematically similar, i.e. sound like they fall within a language group and 2) don't have unfortunate connotations. It's not easy. Martin went with a lot of names like 'Riverrun' which are perfectly fine - I mean, the Norse didn't name it Iceland because the island was temperate - but those don't given as much of a feeling of otherness. I've got two islands off my main RPG continent, Tau Lirin and Tau Ildrion, named by Elves, so now you know what 'Tau' means in my version of Elvish. Not great, but I'm trying. Tolkein clean stole Gondor from a map of Africa, and they still parodied it - Tudor and Fordor.
Pappenheimer
Pappenheimer,
"It's not easy."
Agree. And I should clarify, LeGuin was a master and I don't recall names bothering me READING any of her books. Lesser SF writers do send me into ruminations.
I'm somewhat mystified that editors and marketing folks think they're going to sell books to a new audience by dropping the created names out of context.
John Viril:
What, exactly, does ruining millions of lives qualify her to do as President?
Well, when you put it that way...
Dr. Brin,
I had a friend who took his caffeine nasally, but the instants tore the hell out of his sinuses. I do the Dew through an IV bottle. Actually for the past few years it's been the diet. My doctor got mad at me. It turns out that taking in tons of sugar in a liquid form does some pretty unpleasant things to brains, including dopamine depletion. Bad idea.
Have you looked into those marmosets?
Paul SB
Pappenheimer,
The communism you're describing is what Marx called "primitive communism." He got that wrong, too, but given the state of ethnography in those days, he can be forgiven for that. The idea can work where a group is small enough that everybody knows everybody, so peer pressure works. Communism is simply impossible in a state-level civilization because of the massive population and anonymity that allows. But even at the band level, it doesn't exactly work the way he imagined it.
It's not that band-level people share everything. In the Kalahari Desert, every band has a traditional water hole, and if anyone else wants to drink they are supposed to ask permission. In practice, though, no one ever says no. That's a matter of survival, like the more well-known Beduin hospitality code. But for everything else there's what's called Reciprocal Exchange.
It's a system we are all familiar with, but it's so normalized no one thinks of it as exchange. In our context, we give presents for birthdays and some religious holidays, and the people we gave to are expected to reciprocate. When this is the entire basis of your economy, it usually starts with kinship obligations, extends into fictive kinship, and from there to the whole community. People simply give people things when they need it, and expect that they will give something back at some other time, when they are capable. Religious gift exchange is also common. Either way, it isn't random sharing out of the goodness of their hearts. Everyone keeps track. What they don't do, though, is insist on equal value. If you want to cook your slice of antelope, I might give you my tin pot. Maybe a week from now you find a stash of honey and give some of it to me. The only accounting is that reciprocation happens eventually. People who take but never return are at risk of getting the boot.
Okay, that's your Anth 101 lecture for today.
Paul SB
Slim,
Wouldn't it be a bull trying to eat raw oysters?
Yes, the business/marketing people suck.
I haven't read the Earthsea series. I'm just not really a fantasy fan, but my Spawn 1 has and enjoyed it. It's been a long time, though.
It's sad she died during the Shrub 2 years. She was out ridiculing the fool to the end, though.
Paul SB
jeepers, so now we're defending mass murderers like Ghaddafi and Assad? YES we didn't handle it right. We should have been less gun shy and helped in the aftermath. For all of the spectacular faults of modern Iraq... and I deem George HW Bush to have been the worst president of the 20th century(!) in part because of his munging that job... today Iraqis have some basic laws and rights and a crude democracy that lets them build toward better. It would have taken for less - and still could today - in Libya, if we found our balls there.
onward
onward
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