In so many ways, we are all in deadly danger due to … romanticism. Especially idealized and flat-out wrong notions about history.
Elsewhere, I talk about how the romantic side of humans… imagining and fantasizing wishes or nightmares, envisioned in vivid, luscious subjectivity… is an essential human trait! We’d be a drab, impoverished species without that rich, inexhaustible realm of delusion. Indeed, I make my living catering to it, selling imaginary trips of high vividness...
...delusions that are openly and honestly sold as delusions.
Nevertheless, I argue here – and in Vivid Tomorrows -- that delusion can also wreak utter hell. Across 6000 years of horrific misrule that we call “history,” our romantic figments have justified an endless parade of horrors.
And hence, running an actual civilization calls for something better.
Let me make clear: all strains of human life, including politics, are rife with delusions! And alhough I am about to dive into the way that many of our neighbors have gone particularly loco… I also avow that there are crazy romantics infesting and doing great harm, on my own political 'side.' I inveigh about those preening idiots, from time to time.
Take the Mad Right’s relentless incantation-fetish about the 1950s, an era when – for sure – middle class white guys felt they were on top. Though – um – even they, in vast majority, voted Democrat! Back then, the Greatest Generation guys remembered how FDR et. al. rescued the nation from previous, monstrous stupidities -- like an earlier effort by rich lords and inheritance brats to re-establish feudalism. Those veterans, bolstered by New Deal policies and the GI Bill, set in motion the greatest surge in productivity and prosperity any nation ever saw.
Still, that unparalleled growth and progress was incremental and comparative! It was a build toward better days, not a culmination or lost paradise. Indeed, YOU have a duty, in case any of you ever face romantics who actually actually claim that America was a better place in the 1950s!
If you run into that utter garbage, here is your ammo for shooting down that bald-faced lie-travesty. And yes, I mention not only FDR and Ike, but also utter the words Jonas Salk!
== The cult memes keep flowing ==
Want another madness of the gone-loopy U.S. right? It’s one that infests all forms of conservatism. (Though sure, some portions of the left have their own bad habits.) Yes, it is rife even among conservatives who (sanely) despise Donald Trump.
You've seen me talk about it before. But I'm going to keep hammering this as a lonely Cassandra, until I see someone out there joining me in denouncing a dangerously infectious madness.
It’s called cyclical history, and it is noxiously rampant now across the American right. See where I shred that grotesque fantasy-twaddle here.
== Originalism Sin ==
Here's another one. Rising to a higher – though still dismal – intellectual plain, there’s a fetish among the dopey shills at AEI, Heritage and Federalist Society called originalism. It is the core rationalized excuse offered by the John Roberts majority for easily half of the jibbering-awful Supreme Court judgements they have shoved down our throats, in recent years.
“The Founders clearly intended…”
Seriously? That is the argument?
My friend Joseph Carroll offers three items that may rattle originalist cages. One I have seen elsewhere, but two of them not.
1. "I recently read that through most of the 19th century, there was largely no control of immigration, and immigrants were allowed to vote as soon as they arrived.
Hence, under originalism, should we go back to both of those policies, and discard any later court decisions that justified limits on immigration and immigrant voting?
2. "George Washington hated political parties. And I think they have no status in the Constitution.
Hence, should an originalist want to preclude political parties from imposing any constraints on congressional procedures?
3. "Thomas Jefferson was a key original, but an anti-originalist in many ways. He wrote an essay to Madison in 1789 on the theme: "Earth belongs in usufruct to the living." He spells out various implications, including a constitution not remaining valid once the new generation outnumbers the old who were alive when it was established. And he saw no validity for debts lasting long enough to saddle later generations with them. Using new life expectancy data, he decided that 19 years was a reasonable limit. That may be partly why he wondered about whether one needed a revolution every 20 years (as Mao tried!), and the 17 year validity of patents. (I presume that might also have to be true for copyrights.)"
To which I answer... hmmmm!
== Romanticizing the father of liberal enlightenment… as an apologist for oligarchy! ==
I know and like many libertarians - such as those who help run the Freedom Fest gathering, at which I used to speak occasionally... before the movement was entirely bought and suborned by Steve Forbes and other inheritance caste oligarchs, whose top priority is to prevent self-styled libertarian folks from ever waking up from the lord-worshipping trance.
... along with many others who cling to old loyalties, despite being nauseated by Trump, they repeat these magic words....
“I know that Republicans have gone insane… but … but democrats are worse!
"THAT’S the ticket! Despite all the proof to the contrary, democrats are even worse!”
It's a koolaid incantation that gets repeated over and over, again and again, to excuse being complicit with the forces of restored feudalism.
Back to Adam Smith...
The ‘libertarian philosopher’ about whom I keep reminding folks - Adam Smith - pushed the one viable alternative to 6000 years of feudal lordship-stupidity. The alternative of fecund-flat-fair-open-transparent market competition by the widest range of healthy, educated, confident and unafraid competitors.
Smith made clear that the chief enemy of such creatively competitive markets has almost never been ‘socialists!' Especially not the Rooseveltean or Scandinavian styles of limited socialism – e.g. efforts to uplift poor children, turning them into healthy, educated and confident competitors. The part that creates fecund market competition with the maxim “stop wasting talent!”
Indeed, the trait that has made today’s Mad Right -- and a majority of self-styled ‘libertarians’ – turn their backs on Smith is his savage indictments of oligarchic-aristocratic cheating by inheritance brats, the bane on both freedom and markets across 99% of the last 6000 years.
… a malediction that now has surpassed French Revolution levels of wealth disparity and competition-suppression and cheating.
Smith’s caustic denunciations of rentier-caste corruption – and the American Founders’ revolution against precisely that caste – plus later history’s hugely successful liberal rebellions against feudal slave-holders and then Gilded Age titans – led to today’s ironic desperation by shill orgs like Heritage and AEI and the GOP to avoid ever mentioning that name.
163 comments:
Romanticizing the past is fear of future irrelevance
This goes double for SOCIALISM, a philosophical ideal with a record of failure so blatant that only a hopeless romantic would attempt to ignore, deny or evade this fact by invoking the 'No True Socialism' canard.
The statistics related to its attempted implementation are terrifying:
50 to 55 Million dead under National Socialism; 61 Million dead under the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; 78 Million dead under the PRC's 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics'; 3 Million dead under the agrarian socialist republic of the Khmer Rouge; and perhaps another 30 Million dead worldwide among other socialist-adjacent nations.
Even in the oft-cited Nordic countries, there never has been, nor will there ever be, a viable socialist utopia, as Nordic Countries Aren’t Actually Socialist:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/27/nordic-countries-not-socialist-denmark-norway-sweden-centrist/
As used above, the term 'romantic' actually means "imaginative but impractical", "visionary", "idealized or fictitious", and "Not based on fact", and there exists no word other than 'romantic' that describes Socialism better.
Socialism is Romanticism by definition.
Best
"History! One of its crimes:
A retread of some former times.
Though some say: more a set of rhymes.
A little bit like anto-nyms
Speaking of which...
National Socialism... wasn't.
(Aside: we had a highly unusual glimpse of aurora from Melbourne last night)
Tony,
Hard to sneak the word 'assonance' into your rhyming scheme, but that's what I'd use.
According to what I read in "The Rise and Fall" etc years ago, AH made noises at the beginning that attracted some socialists. Heck, as I wrote before, there was a Jewish Nazi group. Once he got closer to power, all the foliage got pruned, along with Rohm and his SA, which did the street-thuggery (and also, according to Wiki, sold their own brand of cigarettes?) Only the name remained.
Pappenheimer
P.S. Tried to catch the aurora; veni, sed non vidi. Of course, it was bright enough over Wright-Patt (near Columbus OH) decades ago that a security patrolman dragged me out of my weather office and onto the golf course so I could tell him what he was seeing up there; my weather observation that night included the term 'purple haze aloft', which was not proper code. Hey, YOLO.
@Pappenheimer, unusual observations call for unusual descriptions*, which isn't a bad thing. As you'll doubtless know, those 'proper codes' of weather proved to be the undoing of Enigma codes. It was much easier to crack the pass key of the day if you already knew what a stock message from a weather station was going to be. (and no, despite what the movie suggested for dramatic effect, it didn't take Turing to figure that out!)
* in our case, a greenish glow on the horizon that varied in brightness. Occasionally bracketed by red glows. First noted around 9:30pm, it had gone by 11pm. The view from Tasmania was apparently spectacular.
Oy gevalt!
Wright Patterson (Home of the Fighting Little Green Men*, in local myth) is nearer to Cincinnati than Columbus, unless it migrated northeast while I was away.
*WPAFB was the headquarters of the Foreign Technology Division back when I worked there, so it kind of made sense they'd store aliens and bits of alien stuff there, if they had any.
Pappenheimer
P.S. I remember some of that Enigma-breaking from the books I've read. There was also a nasty little war fought in the Arctic where small Allied units found and pinched out the last few North Atlantic observing stations giving the 3rd Reich hard weather data, meaning that Nazi weather forecasting around D-Day wasn't as accurate as the Allies'. Hard to build a surface synoptic chart from a few random U-boat reports.
P.P.S. I can forgive the movie a little overdramatization for giving Turing a little bit of his due. One part was dead accurate, though again not Turing-based; never to act on information gathered unless it could be attributed to more normal sources such as spies or recon. Although this was a Purple risk rather than and Enigma one, I still think the decision to ambush and shoot down Adm. Yamamoto's personal aircraft with extreme long-range fighters was a stupid one, but 1) payback is a female dog, 2) Japanese high command somehow did not take the hint and 3) by 1944 everyone except some Japanese civilians knew Japan's defeat was only a matter of time.
I was talked to by the unit commander and first sergeant, but all they said was "use AURBO next time." OK, then.
Pappenheimer
Pappenheimer,
Yah. I remember thinking that about the Yamamoto assassination when I first read about it. Thing is, we WERE getting intel from locals who hated their Japanese occupiers. There was a plausible explanation, though a little thin.
I think at that point, though, it was better to continue with the war of attrition. The US was rapidly killing off any of them with any training and we could reach where they would try to train more. Our training facilities were so far out of reach they could not respond to that imbalance.
Paul SB,
...never worship any one man...
Yep. I'd add to it that one should consider very carefully whether to vilify them too. Some deserve the label, but most of us don't see ourselves as the monsters others quickly imagine.
Our host points out another misunderstood 'villain' when he asks whether people have actually read Karl Marx. Many of us have not. I HAVE worked hard at Adam Smith's two giant books, but 18th century English is a challenge. Marx was a little more modern, but what I found so amazing about him is that by the mid-20th even the people who said they opposed him were making heavy use of his POV. (Except guys like Hayek and Von Mises.)
------
What gets to me the most about gun ownership is the statistics around suicides. We talk a lot about kids getting shot at schools, but strenuously avoid mentioning how a VERY large fraction of gun deaths are self-inflicted. Not having them around helps make it just a little harder and possibly buying someone time to make a different choice.
Add on to that the stats for people who choose to end themselves by taking others with them and the self-inflicted stats are staggering.
I'm old enough now to know a few people wanted to end it all and some of them actually tried. NOT having an easy way to do it saved them all. It's not perfect, but it helps enough that I can't imagine wanting to own one and effectively assist making it easier.
------
You underestimate the power of a pistol during civil conflicts, though. It's a hidden weapon. You smile, pretend to support your opponents, and then shoot the bastards at close range when they aren't expecting it. Sneak killing.
Speaking of delusions and how we cope, I got to witness a wonderful thing on a small math Discord server a couple days ago. One of the participants was explaining how we was unwilling to argue for a particular mathematical truth of which he was certain. He was willing to discourage people online from buying and reading books that contained the error and the grounds he was helping prevent the spread, but he wouldn't address the author directly. He was too certain it would erupt into a fight that would have professional consequences. A little cowardly I thought, but I didn't say that because I wasn't sure of the guy's circumstances.
Other equally young participants on that server, though, spoke up for arguments as the only way these errors actually get corrected. One of them knew the author personally and argued that the imagined risk simply wouldn't happen. At worst, the author would disagree and trot out his reasons for writing what he wrote. The best of them pointed out that only the extremes of the community would resort to that kind of unprofessional response and no one appeared to be willing to go that far.
Not only was CITOKATE being defended, though not named, it was being supported as the right way to advance. I don't think they won over the possible coward, but the discussion happened right in front of several other young participants. They said what needed to be said and then demonstrated it in action. In front of students!
I mostly lurked while they did it. Didn't have to lift a finger. Just smiled.
@Pappenheimer Enigma decoders certainly did have to be careful about what information they acted on. The most notorious example of having to pass being the bombing of Coventry.
He knows National Socialism wasn’t socialism, he’s gaming. What he’s written above are the talking points Limbaugh was using three decades ago, and are old standbys now.
Tony, the claim that the British knew that Coventry was the target is a myth. They knew that a large raid was planned but not the target. They thought it was probably going to be London but were not certain.
Alfred,
Re: training...WWII Japanese aircrew training was seriously messed up without Allied aircraft showing up on the training ranges. Training classes weren't expanded until after a lot of the superb initial cadre were dead (most of the Pearl Harbor veterans, for instance, were gone before 1943) and committed the unforced error of not pulling veteran pilots off the line to be trainers - they flew until they were shot down. Allied policy offered some hope to experienced pilots and gave new pilots the advantage of learning from someone else's experience before going into combat. Japanese aircrew quality nosedived* because of this - raw recruits with insufficient flight time fed into the meat grinder alongside a dwindling number of elite but increasingly worn-out, PTSD-ridden pilots. The same thing happened in Germany when training staff were shipped off to front line squadrons to try to cover increasing attrition. Eating your seed corn - first arrogance, then desperation.
*not an intentional pun
Pappenheimer
P.S. I don't recall where I read it, but I think Lloyd is right about Coventry not being a deliberate sacrifice. Wiki seems to agree and I don't have my sources to hand.
Italians were helpful to Enigma decoders, providing the arrival times and destination ports of ships delivering petroleum to Axis forces in Africa.
Italians were almost like allies to the Allies.
I do have an old USAF pamphlet about the people the US chose to keep the ULTRA secret and liaison with the actual fighting chain of command - elite lawyers were recruited (you know: Harvard, Yale, etc.) to safeguard the information transmission.
Pappenheimer
P.S. National Socialism...Alan, I hadn't realized you were trying to reply to Loc's latest jeremiad, which I try to skip over these days - I look for the word "Best" and move on. By equating Nazis with actual socialists, wouldn't you be arguing that there was no real change in government in Chile when Pinochet came to power?
And speaking of incompetence...Whack-a-Mole with Hamas, as no one could have predicted...no wait, a lot of people did. Including me.
We have "...IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi..,telling Netanyahu that because he refuses to make diplomatic arrangements for the post-war government of Gaza, the IDF is having to go back to fight again in areas it already took over. In some cases they’re having to go back and fight for the same ground a third time!"
Arrogance, malevolence, incompetence? Deliberate blindness to keep the blood flowing and Bibi's political career alive? I don't know.
Pappenheimer
On par with,
“the Confederacy was Democrats!”
Are they such tards as to think the Democratic Party of 2024 is similar to that of the 1860s? Some of them are.
Wait, have got to be careful these days: “Some of them are” means some Republicans are tards, not some Democrats are Confederates.
For Mother's Day, a shout out to Merlin's mom, Adhan. His daddy? Well, Merlin was technically a cambion. Dad was kind of a horny, fly-by-night chap.
Pappenheimer
Re: Coventry. Citotake training moment noted.
Military history (in particular) is fractally complex and filled with errors, unknowns, and deliberate lies to save face or smear opponents. I had a political science professor argue that the British lost whole divisions when the Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia) objected not to being liberated from the Japanese ("Baik! Terima kaseh!") but to a return to Dutch rule ("All bagus here, the Japanese are gone, go away, selamat jalan"). He did not reply when I asked what regimental histories would have recorded such destruction. Sure, there was fighting, but not at the scale he maintained. I've absorbed a lot of data I'm actually unsure of...what's more worrying is what I think is correct, but ain't. Just how did Baldwin IV's understrength pickup army* smash Saladin's huge force at Mont Gisard, anyway? We know it happened....because Saladin showed back up in Egypt with about six guys, and ever after had a healthy respect for the Leper King.
*including every knight who happened to be on pilgrimage in Jerusalem atm. I imagine his city guard shaking knights out of shrines, inns, gambling houses. brothels...
Pappenheimer
AD: “Marx was a little more modern, but what I found so amazing about him is that by the mid-20th even the people who said they opposed him were making heavy use of his POV.”
Especially true of Ayn Rand who – while a heretic demanding that the last phase of prol revolution be expunged… and flipping the heroes vs. villains – was otherwise one of the most-Marxist cult philosophers ever.
Nice story about grownup argument.
TF & LF: The worst example is “FDR knew about Pearl Harbor in advance and didn’t tell so we’d be shocked into war!” Hm… but did he want to 1st battle to be a devastating defeat?? If he know, then he might have ordered – let them fire the 1st shot, then spring a trap!” The whole scenario is jabbering insane, like most such masturbatory twaddles. Speaking of which, I see “L” is still hanging around yowling like a castrated cat searching fo long-gone balls. I no longer even ask anyone to control their gorge and check to see if his diet changed. Nothing can fix filthy insanity.
Pappenheimer the Japanese pilots were trained at Misty Lagoon Air Station and then in China, They could not expand much because (1) they did not rotate skilled pilots back as trainers but kept them flying until dead. (2) they had real troubles with finding recruits both fully fit (eyesight especially) and not of the lower classes. US had an almost infinite supply of fit recruits with expert trainers and they weren’t sent to battle till at least somewhat ready.
AB the one set of Italians who truly waged quality war were the torpedo boat and midget sub guys. Major deeds.
In Gaza Israeli should have spent the last 3 os rebuilding Gaza City so women and children could flee there from Rafah. BN is an idiot.
Dr Brin,
I'd argue that the Italian elite units were fully on par with their counterparts in other armies - both German and Allied primary sources respected the Ariete Division, for example - but Italian conscripts as a whole were unenthusiastic about fighting for Germany (many officers and NCOs remembered being on the other side in WWI). There is also the matter of simply being left behind in the tech race that was WWII. Italy's tanks and aircraft were top line in 1939 but death traps by 1943.
Likewise, the Italian forces on the Eastern Front did well initially, were expanded (I just found out Mussolini sent crack ALPINE troops - Alpini - to Southern Russia/Ukraine; what brainworms were in HIS head?), got crushed in the Stalingrad encirclement and the survivors were withdrawn.
The Japanese high command were fixated on a "Short Victorious War" and didn't plan for a long one, I think partly because they knew they could not win one. They could have expanded their air reserve pre-war and arranged for experienced pilot rotation, but did not. I should point out that the Brits and Amis were just as arrogant pre-war, but had planned better, and revised their plans after their shocking defeats. the US didn't have to worry about Victory Disease in 1942, even after Midway.
Pappenheimer
P.S. "Roosevelt knew about Pearl Harbor and let it happen." That's the Roosevelt who'd been naval secretary and loved his ships, right? Also, the guy who knew Germany was the greater threat? One of the few ways WWII MIGHT have turned out differently is Hitler not declaring war on the US after Pearl. He was not obligated to, and in so doing he made Roosevelt's job ever so much easier.
Tony Fisk:
National Socialism... wasn't.
It might have more accurately been called "Social Nationalism". Could the original German term actually mean that instead?
Pappenheimer.
A. Arrogance
B. malevolence
C. Incompetence?
D. Deliberate blindness to keep the blood flowing and Bibi's political career alive? I don't know.
How about:
E. All of the above
Paul SB
Alfred,
I'm an equal-opportunity vilifier.
" I'd add to it that one should consider very carefully whether to vilify them too. Some deserve the label, but most of us don't see ourselves as the monsters others quickly imagine."
- Few people ever see themselves as monsters. And when their words and actions have monstrous consequences, they desperately seek out excuses, justifications, and other people to blame. Friedman, Hayek, and von Mises were all elites who believed that if you let the people have power they would inevitably go fascist. Looking at America today, you might think they were right, but there are plenty of much less noisy people who contradict their belief.
"What gets to me the most about gun ownership is the statistics around suicides."
- Most people, especially more conservative people, don't give a rat's ass about suicide victims because they think they deserve it. If anyone is "dumb enough" or "weak enough" to commit suicide, in their minds that's a good thing. never mind the fact that 80% of suicides are committed during a panic attack or severe depressive episode, but since most people don't know squat about psychology or neuroscience, they wouldn't be impressed by that fact, either. They think that someone who has clinical depression is just some whiner who's trying to get out of working for a living, and anyone who has a panic attack is just stupid.
We aren't going to get anywhere without putting a serious dent in our collective ignorance. Since it's mostly willful ignorance for the purpose of maintaining troglodyte gender dynamics, I have an idea of what's important to take on, here.
Paul SB
Dr. Brin,
"Especially true of Ayn Rand who – while a heretic demanding that the last phase of prol revolution be expunged… and flipping the heroes vs. villains – was otherwise one of the most-Marxist cult philosophers ever."
- This says something about how schemata work. Any idea that is "out there" enters into unconscious processing and becomes the assumptions on which conscious ideas rest. Few people ever actually create any really new ideas, they just get them twisted around in their schemata and spit out their own unique combinations of ideas that are already out there.
While I'm fully cognizant of Marx's failings, one thing I do really like is that when he was asked to explain his ideology, his answer was that ideology doesn't mean squat, what matters is who has the power. It's not that it was a new innovation of his, but Western culture in his day was so focused on dueling political and religious propagandas that the honesty was a real breath of fresh air. Given all the dueling ideologies we have today, that kind of practical thinking could be pretty useful.
Paul SB
Paul SB: Given all the dueling ideologies we have today, that kind of practical thinking could be pretty useful.
Transistors aren't biased (there's a pun in there for all my electo-nerd friends). They don't eat or sleep (much), and almost never die. If there is a cure for romanticism, they'll find it first. That's why seeking to 'humanize' A.I. is misguided - it's like turning SETI into METI - powerful stoopid. I briefly mentioned Marx in my 2011 piece on computational psychohistory. I wish I'd gone deeper.
Scidata:
So should we instead AI-ize humanity?
Alfred Differ:
The statistic I've heard is that over 60% of all American gun deaths are suicides. To me that gives the game away. The gun cult is not about self-defense; it's about self-destruction.
Not with the current 'AI'. I want my digit count to be a fixed integer.
Pappenheimer
A college professor I respected, named Kim Sung-Ho, was tapped for the Special Squadrons in 1945, but the war ended before he was ordered to fly a junk plane with a fused bomb into a US ship. He was Korean, and I hope he's still alive...looks like he might have retired - not surprising, I'm on the cusp of retirement myself.
Pappenheimer
Scidata,
Transistors aren't biased, but neither are neurons. Neural networks that grow in specific environments grow bias. How do we know that networks of transistors won't be the same?
Paul SB
Smith made clear that the chief enemy of such creatively competitive markets has almost never been socialists[DB].
This is a before-the-fact 'a priori' argument.
As Adam Smith was an 18th Century economist who lived & died before the start of the 19th Century, what could he know of either 19th Century Marxism or the bloody 100+ Million death toll attributed to 20th Century Socialism ?
I therefore suggest that Adam Smith was 'No True Socialist', even if he did have certain leftist leanings, as it's extremely doubtful that what Adam Smith called 'socialism' was congruent with the 'socialism' of the 19th or 20th Century.
He knows National Socialism wasn’t socialism, he’s gaming.
I know no such thing & neither does Alan_B as his reliance on the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy is both thoughtless & automatic.
What I do know is that Adolph Hitler & the National Socialists of the 20th Century SELF-IDENTIFIED AS SOCIALISTS and I'm inclined to accept their argument as I would their chosen personal pronouns, just as Maya Angelou suggests.
This over-reliance on the 'No True Scotsman' fallacy in the defense of Socialism's repeated failures sickens me to the point where I'm tempted to invoke the same argument to defend National Socialism on the grounds that Hitler was 'No True Nazi'.
Is that what you Leftists are try to do? Defend the indefensible?
It's despicable.
Best
_____
Paradoctor may be on to something when he quips that the Second Amendment Gun Cult is not about self-defense but self-destruction, which is why it's such an effective defense against tyranny & the use of force.
That the Second Amendment types do not fear death to the same extent that you fear death, remember this before you & your kind try to compel their unwilling obedience with threats of force & death. In other words...
Don't start none if you don't want none.
Pappenheimer (from previous thread),
My career was in IT, and although I worked for the (Australian) DOD it was for the most part very much on the Unclassified side. Literally writing code and running mainframe systems keeping track of nuts and bolts and standard office stuff.
Anyway, for a couple of years one of the members of my team had previously been in the RAN. I casually asked him once what area he had worked in there. Answer: Clearance Diver. Riiiiight.
Some time later there was an office social club lunch, and while ingesting pizza and coffee the discussion turned to personal weapons. Mr CD's flat statement of 'pump-action shotgun' may not have convinced everyone, but you had better believe it did me.
Loc,
You are conflating socialism with social fascism. National Socialism was proletarian in nature—but not socialist.
Ditto with Communism. Communism and Fascism/National Socialism were of the same system, but different ideologies. (Barbed wire doesn’t care what it is used for.)
I visited East Germany, and saw what it was about: nationalism, keeping other nations out. Today Russia is attempting to keep the West out. “Let it be worse, but let it be ours.”
If Russia can conscript sufficient cannon-fodder, they can keep on walloping Ukraine. Life is cheap to them.
Re: humanize AI vs AI-ize humanity
Both are misguided because they are essentially the same thing.
There are two kinds of people in the world, and this copyright case cleanly sorts them:
https://www.zhangjingna.com/blog/luxembourg-copyright-case-win-against-jeff-dieschburg
Is a photograph art? Or does it take some human 'fixup' to make it so?
I'd argue that the idea is the art, putting me on Jingna Zhang's side. In the context of the current topic, the dangers of romanticism are only visible if we have a non-romanticist foil to illuminate things for us. Further, just like DT's or Scopes' cases, it's more important that the case be brought and tried than who wins it.
Paul SB: Neural networks that grow in specific environments grow bias
Which is exactly why I prefer to work with transistors, gates, and what I call 'recursive memory circuits'. I realize that's tinker-toy thinking, but that's all I'm capable of :)
The right picks and chooses which parts of originalism they like. Original in the country, or in the Bible
Our literature and media romanticizes the person who overcomes the establishment. Democracy doesn't sell as a solution for anything in the arts we buy.
Reason I’m doubtful of you is your statement that half of CB thinks they aren’t going to die.
Plus, why would someone as educated as yourself not know the difference between socialism and National Socialism?
Doesn’t add up.
Scidata,
"I realize that's tinker-toy thinking, but that's all I'm capable of :)"
- Hey, tinker-toy thinking is what makes technology happen. Necessity isn't the mother of invention, curiosity is. Invention is the mother of necessity. Western Civ did just fine without processed sugar and chemical fertilizers. Now we can hardly live without them.
Paul SB
Alan,
You do realize you're talking to Choke'Em Ranch, right? That one's so religiously committed to fascist propaganda he will never give an inch on his dogma. It's funny how people who claim that all politicians are consummate liars will then turn around and use the "self-identify" argument when it's convenient, as if politicians never, ever lie.
Paul SB
Howard,
They are even more selective about Originalism, since they gladly twist the meanings of original documents like the Constitution to suit their agendas (like their version of the Second Amendment that didn't mean anything like what they say it does back in 1791) and cherry-pick their own holy book to the point that it is nothing but a source for solipsism.
When our literature strongly favors the mythical "rugged individualist" superhero who is somehow miraculously still the underdog, then the will of the people is easily twisted to look like dictatorship - unless said rugged individualist is a woman or member of a minority group opposed to the wealthy, white, Evangelical, hetero, uneducated male power bloc.
Paul SB
Don’t know. He’s a riddle wrapped in an enigma. Not directly related: ideology ended in the ‘90s; for decades we’ve been living in an ideological mausoleum.
A theory re MAGAs: perhaps they simply can’t bring themselves to admit they were mistaken in choosing Trump in 2016..too embarrassing.
Maybe Loc is similar.
The interconnections between American conservatives and the Hitler Administration are extensive and quite interesting. Hitler got a whole lot of his ideas from America, especially the Eugenics Movement and the Jim Crow Laws. As soon as he became Chancellor in 1933 he set his lawyers to making laws for Germany based on Southern Jim Crow, substituting “Aryan” for “White” and “Jew” for “Black.” He based his anti-abortion law on laws in the Southern states, and ended up creating the most restrictive anti-abortion legislation in all of Europe (which was only repealed in 2022). However, he thought that American miscegenation laws were too extreme. Yes, American laws were too extreme for Hitler. His own miscegenation law passed in 1934 allowed a person to be considered Aryan if they had no more Jewish blood than one grandparent, where American jurisprudence said that one drop of black blood makes you black.
American author Madison Grant wrote a book of flaming bigotry called “The Passing of the Great Race” which was basically an expression of the so-called great replacement that white conservatives are so enamored of. When the book was translated in German, Hitler fell in love with it. He called it his Bible, and made it required reading in German public schools and universities. Another parallel there. He interfered extensively with education, just like American conservatives love to do.
Hitler also admired the American economic system. He kept a portrait of Henry Ford in his office, who he admired as the greatest industrialist of all time. That’s what inspired Hitler to create Volkswagon. He also adopted Ford’s tactic of sending thugs to beat up labor leaders. A lot of ignorant people in America say that Hitler was a socialist, but if you know the history, you know that he adopted the name “National Social Workers’ Party” in the early ‘20s when the idea was popular and won him a lot of followers. For some reason a lot of people don’t seem to grasp the idea that politicians lie.
The influence didn’t just go one way. In an effort to break the labor unions he created the world’s first Right to Work Law in 1933. The very next year the law was translated into English and passed in Mississippi. Now these Right to Work Laws are a staple in almost all red states. Another really important aspect of the American right wing is their insistence that anyone they disagree with must be a communist. It was actually Mussolini who started this, but both Hitler and Franco adopted it right away, and it has been used by fascist regimes all over the world. Hitler is famous for scapegoating the Jews, but he justified it in part by claiming that Jews are all Marxists. Reagan even gave millions of American tax-payer dollars to Augusto Pinochet, which he used to torture and murder hundreds of thousands of his people, because Pinochet claimed that all his opponents were communists.
If you are old enough to remember the Reagan Administration, you probably remember him going on ad nauseam about “welfare queens” who he claimed were stealing millions of tax-payer dollars so they could live in luxury without doing any honest work. It turns out there actually was one. One. And she was black, too, which Reagan heavily hinted at. That one was caught and prosecuted during the Carter Administration, and had been found to have defrauded the government for $40,000, and yes, she did buy a Cadillac. Now where did Reagan get the idea that this would be such an effective campaign strategy it would win him millions of votes? Mein Kampf, Chapter 2. Yes, he was working from a tried-and-true playbook.
More recently, Trump has insisted that the mainstream media is an enemy of the state. Hitler’s term was Lügenpresse - lying press. Of course, this tactic was also used by Franco, Mussolini, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, Ceausescu, Gaddafi, and pretty much any other brutal dictator you can name. Once again, a tried-and-true strategy developed by genocidal dictators the world over.
Paul SB
Alan,
The Sunk Cost Effect is a powerful force in the minds of the simple. You could be right. However, I suspect that it has more to do with their association with his depravity. They see him as legitimizing all their vile behaviors that mainstream society looks down on.
Paul SB
He has over, what, over 70 million followers? Probably the sunk cost effect is their main reason, followed by another coming in at close second. There’re any number of reasons.
I don’t think it is his America or Biden’s America but, rather, Gordon Liddy’s. There was a tabula rasa zeitgeist when the Vietnam War ended, yet Watergate put a clog in that.
AB: please don't answer him. He does this same thing, whenever he's gone so viciously and fecal-spewing loco that we snub him, he changes his diets (or takes meds) for a while, in order to post something that MERELY sounds crazy right-wing, thus drawing someone into engaging. But having fallen for it a dozen times, I am done. Skim past the toxic sewer spill.
I've actually read part of Marx's 40 volume 'Das Kapital' treatise on Capitalism -- the first volume only -- but that's enough for me to accept Marx as the 19th Century's foremost expert on Capitalism, yet that expertise does not extend to his rather INEXPERT attachment to the speculative fiction that he calls 'socialism'.
As yet another expert on Capitalism, Smith was much like Marx in this regard, as both appeared to believe that Capitalism was literally 'the worst of all conceivable economic systems except for feudalism' & just about every other socioeconomic system than human beings have ever tried.
Alan_B thinks I may be "conflating socialism with social fascism", but I think that he may be conflating the IDEAL of Socialism with its practical application which seems to require FASCISM or some similar centralized authoritarianism strong enough to enforce universal equity & equality amongst imperfect humanity.
Either way, and in the typical fashion of those leftists who cannot distinguish the ideal from the real, I expect that he'll soon insist that REAL SOCIALISM has never & will never exist until we'll all be riding those unicorns, drinking that free bubble up and eating that rainbow stew which could happen any day now as long as we believe in fairies & clap our hands.
Alan_B then attacks my previous (slightly hyperbolic) statement about how "half of CB thinks they aren’t going to die", even though it's all there in black & white for all to read, as contained in Dr. Brin's essay on Immortality via techno-transcendence, singularity & nerd rapture (linked below):
https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/immortality.html
Granted:
Dr. Brin (as a published author) has already accomplished a higher degree of personal immortality than what most of us can hope for -- figuratively speaking, that is -- but this is just 1 of 3 forms of (mostly rhetorical) immortality within reach of the average human nobody, the other 2 being 'our posterity' (our children & genetic legacy) and some sort of religious afterlife with everything else being dust.
But, since I am neither an author nor a religious fanatic, I tend to lean more heavily towards Ethnonationalism as the most likely way to insure my posterity, as do most good Zionists.
Best
Dr. Brin,
"But having fallen for it a dozen times, I am done. Skim past the toxic sewer spill."
- I'm pretty sure I said something along those lines some time ago.
Beast,
Paul SB
...[Hitler] adopted the name “National Social Workers’ Party” in the early ‘20s when the idea was popular and won him a lot of followers. For some reason a lot of people don’t seem to grasp the idea that politicians lie.
A technique that can still be seen in party names at Australian elections.
eg 'Social Democrats' may sounds like a progressive ticket, until you spent 2 seconds skimming the policy summary...
Strangely enough, Ricky Muir, who once caught the last senate ticket for the Mad Max-ish 'Car Enthusiasts Party' turned out to have more than petrol fumes in his head. At least, he's why Abbott couldn't abolish the renewable energy agency.
When I first saw the Monty Python skit with the Silly Party and the Very Silly Party, it was a good bit of fun but not plausible in the real world. Now, the real world has shot way ahead. Even lines like, "Well, the result was as I predicted except that the Silly Party won," could be believably heard on CNN or Good Morning America.
Paul SB:
I'm pretty sure I said something along those lines some time ago.
My name is Larry. I am a locaholic. I've been sober for over seven months now.
Ambrose Bierce wrote this as one of his fables:
"
King Log and King Stork
The People being dissatisfied with a Democratic Legislature, which stole no more than they had, elected a Republican one, which not only stole all they had but exacted a promissory note for the balance due, secured by a mortgage upon their hope of death.
"
The Democratic and Republican parties were very different then in base and policy, but not in this.
Howard Brazee:
Originalism is whatever originates from the originalist.
@Paradoctor,
Frank Zappa:
"Imaginary guitar notes and imaginary vocals exist only in the imagination of the imaginer."
Proof that loc is a fool:
<
Paradoctor may be on to something when he quips that the Second Amendment Gun Cult is not about self-defense but self-destruction, which is why it's such an effective defense against tyranny & the use of force.
>
Loc, you ignorant slut, there is no such thing as revolutionary suicide. Blowing yourself away does not discomfit the Man at all. He might even harness that insanity for his own purposes. Show me a faction with suicide troops and I will show you fanatics led by tyrants.
History is written by the winners, but it is read by the survivors.
Dr. Brin: Forgive me for feeding the troll, but its advocacy of revolutionary suicide was too much.
Pappenheimer,
"Short Victorious War"
We had those folks too, but they started to get outnumbered in the naval officer corp after a couple decades of gaming at the war college showed that tech was advancing fast enough we'd lose a serious number of capital ships from the Great White Fleet II sent to smash them.
I was watching a video interview of one of their historians who was trying to dispel some of the myth around Plan Orange. He explained that it wasn't so much that we had a plan to defeat Japan. It was that we knew what would NOT work through gaming experiences. The British approach with many 'Gibraltar' bases everywhere is something we gave up in a treaty, so that left the island hopping strategy polished by economic strangulation as the only option left standing after a number of tech advances were factored in. Even though we underestimated their torpedoes and fighting tactics, Great White Fleet II was a losing strategy.
I was just watching another video about two commercial hulls converted to training aircraft carriers that operated on Lake Michigan and just how many naval pilots processed through there to learn how to take off and land on a moving deck. Neat story in there.
My boss of a few years ago was a carrier pilot who spent his final years in service teaching other pilots and getting them certified. He had stories too.
———
…and I agree 100% about shotguns. They can be used effectively by people with minimal training and MIGHT not be set to kill.
Alfred Differ:
training aircraft carriers that operated on Lake Michigan
In the mid 50s, my dad was drafted into the navy shortly after he and my mom were married. My mom's mother took seriously the meme that as a sailor, Dad would have "a girl in every port." Only he never left Great Lakes Naval Base, a short train ride from home.
Paul SB,
Friedman, Hayek, and von Mises were all elites who believed that if you let the people have power they would inevitably go fascist.
No, but I can only speak to Hayek's POV with any accuracy. LOTS of people think he said that slide was inevitable, but he didn't and said so quite clearly when asked. In "THE ROAD TO SERFDOM" he described the path people took as they slid into fascism. It was a path he had seen first hand and he described it in detail, but you have to read the book to grasp the abstractions and not the Reader's Digest version published in the US.
When that book came out, he wrote it as a description of what happened in Germany without naming the Germans directly. In the UK, readers thought he was describing Germans. In the US, readers thought he was describing Russians. In truth, he was describing the British as they were on the same sliding path. Remember that they chose to keep Central Planning after WWII and kicked to the curb anyone who might have restored governance to a pre-war, more liberal state. (Germany and Russia had already slid into fascism, so the UK was the nation to save.)
He was trying to warn the British against continuing as if they were still at war after the war was over, but the book was being published while the war was still going. Certain things could not be said directly. Even after, some things could not be said if the book was going to sell any copies.
When anyone DID ponder who he was trying to warn, they got upset. The book made it look inevitable. He said it was not, but it was difficult to avoid. Adults in charge were needed to deal with the less educated voting for what they thought they could have. It wasn't a 'vote for cake' argument, but it looked a bit like one. What concerned him was that we'd vote for things that could NOT work. For example, no amount of magical thinking makes rent control work the way the idealists imagine. Same goes for supply side/trickle down nonsense. Most voters don't know this, though.*
In other books he DID lament the expansion of the franchise. I put his thoughts down and they made a kind of sense. Employees could be too easily swayed by an employer. A man who was not independently wealthy would vote his wallet. (Wealthy ones do too of course.) He did say all that, but also recognized that it didn't matter anymore. There was no going back. (He liked Austria's approach to liberalism with its benevolent bosses, but only relative to the chaos that led to fascism.) His lament, however, did not mean he would support coercion to bring about a reduction in the franchise again. He was clear about that.
———
…because they think they deserve it…
Maybe. Some. I think you are vilifying with a broad brush, though. I suspect most of them just don't think about it and will reject the attempt if it is a liberal suggesting they do.
I know of some strong exceptions, but they are people who had close relationships with other who managed to kill themselves. With about half of gun deaths in the US being suicides, the only way we haven't done something sensible about it is that the issue got politicized enough to define tribal identities.
* Take note that we have a rent control initiative on the California ballot this November. How many of us do you think understand economics well enough to realize we are wishing for unicorns who fart rainbows?
Larry,
Thank you for coming! You are always welcome here!
Seven months of freedom is quite an accomplishment!
Everybody, let's give a big round of applause for Larry!
Paul SB
Alfred Differ:
What gets to me the most about gun ownership is the statistics around suicides.
...
Add on to that the stats for people who choose to end themselves by taking others with them and the self-inflicted stats are staggering.
In his final published novel, Timequake, Kurt Vonnegut suggests that the popularity of movies in which military weaponry is used to mow down rows and rows of people stems from the audience's latent desire for a quick and relatively easy death.
I'm old enough now to know a few people wanted to end it all and some of them actually tried.
Sorry if this is crass, but your wording reminded me of this exchange from the 1990s Sandman comic. Hob Gadling is 640 years old, but his latest girlfriend doesn't know that yet.
"I used to think you were gay."
"Why? Because I'm English?"
"No, because you know so many people who are dead."
(dramatic pause)
"That's not funny."
"I know."
Larry,
The Lake Michigan fleet is a neat story that speaks about how the US actually fought. People can imagine the ships, planes, bombs, and torpedoes easily enough, but that's a smaller slice of what happened than the proverbial 'tip of the iceberg' would imply. Icebergs manage to get about 10% out of the water, but US was activity back home was way, way more than 90% of what happened.
One little side story to those training decks is that they operated year round while the sun was up. Year round on Lake Michigan is no simple feat as you'd know. Someone developed cold weather gear that those folks got to test out and I'm sure that tech got used elsewhere because my first 'exposure' to seriously well done cold weather gear occurred while my father was stationed on a US Navy base in Iceland. Got my first Moon Boots back then.
I don't have the stats handy to back this up, but there's one thing being left out in all this road to fascism/serfdom/oligarchy history: women didn't have the vote. That will be yuge in Nov. Hell hath no fury...
scidata:
Hell hath no fury
Heh. As the 2022 election approached, Kellyanne Conway insisted that women were so angry about their kids being kept home from school during COVID that they'd be part of the coming red wave, irrespective of the Dobbs decision. Oh, and gas prices.
As some Republican familiar with Game of Thrones put it later, "We were expecting a Red Wave, but what we got was a Red Wedding."
Larry,
One of the most telling stats for our civilization is how many of us get to be older before we encounter Death first hand. Think of those beasts in the fifth Harry Potter book that you couldn't see if you hadn't seen someone die.
A lot of us get pretty old before that happens now.
(Many of us also get reasonably old before we are confronted with the fact there are people we knew who we can never see again.)
Never before in human history have so many of us not seen it for so long.
------
One of my girlfriends (before I met her) tried and failed. No gun in the house. A friend checked in on her and intervened. We tracked it down to a thyroid issue eventually. She's alive today with a kid of her own.
My grad advisor's first wife tried and failed. Holiday depression. They got past season, but she tried again a few years later and succeeded. No guns in the house, but it's not an easy thing to stop. Wrecked the surviving family.
I can go on... and I'm not even 640 yo. Just 62. 8)
Old enough to know we'd save a lot more than students if we made guns a little harder to acquire. Not everyone... but some.
This is about as pro-life as I get. I'm kinda against making it too easy to end it all.
Alfred,
I have no idea what a rainbow-flavored fart would smell like, but I'm sure one set of people would call it delicious and the other sheep would claim that it makes you autistic, magnetic, and ovid simultaneously. My suspicion is that no human actually has the chemo receptors to detect such a smell.
We could take this as an argument in favor of elitism - that there must be a class of people who are smarter than the hoi polloi and will make the wise decisions for them. The other argument (so far as I know) is to adequately educate the voting public. But adequately educating the voting public means they learn to recognize the kind of cons that keep the political/executive caste able to pay for their yacht-of-the-month club memberships.
A quick note on racial bigotry in those days: While driving my daughter home from a doctor appointment, I played Antonin Dvorak's most famous work, his Ninth Symphony, titled "From the New World." Dvorak (1841 - 1904), whose name I can never be sure I'm pronouncing half way right, eventually migrated to the US and was quite successful here. He said that the only truly American music was negro. Everything else was just an imitation of European music. That famous symphony is based on a theme from a negro spiritual, and while he was here he employed African American musicians, including singers. That was pretty scandalous in those days, but it worked for him, and helped uplift some people who the Land of the Free kept under the thumbs of the rich for generation after generation. Sure, most people in Hayek's and von Mises' day were racial bigots as well as sexual biggots, but it's not like the idea of equality was unheard of or unthinkable back then.
Paul SB - who prefers to avoid any farts, however flavored.
One of Dvorak's influencers was Harry T. Burleigh, a black singer, composer, double bassist, handyman at the National Conservatory of Music.
August Dvorak (a distant relative of Antonin) invented the Dvorak keyboard in 1936 that should have replaced the QWERTY keyboard, but obviously never did. He also developed a one-handed keyboard. Some wizard-level FORTH programmers use a one-handed keyboard which exploits FORTH's spartan vocabulary & 1-4 char keyword length. The bizarre thing is that if you can touch type on a QWERTY, you already know how to use a one-handed keyboard - no training is necessary. He was a sub skipper in WWII. He was also a prof of math & psychology, just one more link in the chain of computational psychology that runs through the mid-20th C. I sometimes wonder how much Asimov knew about this chain.
Alfred,
RE: suicide, sometimes it's the people you don't meet, like the uncle who shot himself long before I was born (I didn't even discover his existence until I was in college) or my Fullbright girl's father (she found him in the kitchen one evening). Gun deaths, both of them; the US may lead the rest of the world in successful suicides per attempt (ref not found, so I'm qualifying that).
By the way, re: cold weather gear testing, do you know how they used to determine wind chill factors? About the same way Ensign Vorkosigan did, but without the firing squad...
Pappenheimer
P.S. have to pass this along -
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-nypd-cop-appears-to-accidentally-pepper-spray-himself-during-pro-palestine-protest
Don't care where you stand on the student protests, having an armchair cop pepper spray himself is near-peak schadenfreude. I took a faceful of CS back in basic training, and I am thinking, "oh, poor guy - but you brought that to the party yourself"
@larry the silly party sketch was a reflection on the quainter aspects of the British electoral system. Since the entry price for a local seat is (or was) so low, anyone can stand, and how the eccentrics love the soap box! Look up the recent example of 'Lord Bucketface', who won acclaim for beating the British Nationalists (ie they polled even lower than a guy with a bucket over his head!)
Oddly, despite the preferential vote encouraging multiple candidates, you don't see much of that sort of thing in Australia. Perhaps they're scared they'd catch too many of the protest votes?
Alfred Differ:
how many of us get to be older before we encounter Death first hand.
That's me, certainly.
My paternal grandfather died when I was two, so he wasn't part of my conscious memory. My other grandfather was already gone before I was born. So for my entire conscious life, my direct ancestry consisted of my parents and my two grandmothers, and one great-grandmother who lived across the country. The first grandmother to die did so when I was almost 30 and already working a real job. It was easy for me to grow up thinking that death was something that happened to other people's families and in movies. Of course, I knew different intellectually, but still...
My great grandmother died at 93 when I was in college, but that happened at a distance. My maternal grandmother made it to 96 when I was 41, surviving long enough to hold my newborn baby daughter. My dad lasted 10 years after that. He had complications from diabetes and dementia such that it was almost a relief when he passed, and still he made it to 80. Mom is still kicking at 90 and will probably outlive me.
scidata:
the Dvorak keyboard
I knew there was some reason that name was familiar.
if you can touch type on a QWERTY, you already know how to use a one-handed keyboard
Trivial fact: On a standard QWERTY keyboard, you type "Star Wars" entirely with the left hand. And only the pesky "k" keeps that from being true of "Star Trek" as well.
..."which should be obvious even to the most obtuse by now."
Stonekettle on Threads speaking of Republicans:
Without gerrymandering, voter purges and intimidation, disenfranchisement, and the electoral college, they cannot win elections.
Which is why they hate democracy so much.
‘Immortalism’ as in i.e. humans merging with machines.
—
And, again, ideology has finished.
Soon after the fellow in NY immolated himself outside the Trump trial, a MAGA wrote:
“Problem solved itself!”
I beg to differ on replying to him, though if you absolutely insist, shall desist.
•I think somewhat like him, but am more backward-looking. What Churchill said to his physician illustrates it: “what good is there in any new thing?”
That is, there exists expediency/pragmatism—but ‘good’? Virtue? Whose virtue?
Have always hated change, do so even more now—yet as “you might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you,”
“You might not be interested in change, but change is interested in you.”
So I surrender reluctantly—with great sadness—to change. All to say I surmise Loc MIGHT think in a fairly similar fashion. Besides, if we can’t convince someone as educated as he of certain things, how are we going to convince the uneducated?
David,
your title brings to mind a meme I keep trying to push - a lot of people who attack "capitalism" aren't really against "capitalism" as such. Their alienation is about another, much more subtle problem. In many ways, the specialization was has enabled a great rise in productivity, is the enemy of most people, because for many people their most valuable asset is specialized skills, that constantly are in danger of being made redundant. (And here is a good time to say - there is no such thing as an unskilled job - not matter how many managers want to believe that there is.) So in a sense the whole of civilization (or to give it another name, "depeasantization") is a game in which people swap poverty for constant insecurity. I think what the Germans call "der Sozialstaat" (social security state) is a just compensation for accepting this risk, which makes everybody in the end better off. (The same could be said for cutting ties to local social communities such as extended families and villages, which are support but can also be prisons, and becoming part of a more mobile society.) I think these perspectives are often forgotten.
As an addendum to the above comment, I might add that it used to be common in economics (you hear it much less now), that if the winners compensated the losers from free trade, everybody could be made better off. Then they never compensated the losers, so the welfare argument, stopped making sense. So now instead of compensating the losers, they just abuse them. This is a clear case of bait and switch. People have such short memories.
Alfred Differ,
I once got to test some military cold weather gear, that was likely derived from that gear you mentioned tested by the Lake Michigan Fleet, first hand. I got caught out in a blizzard with -40 temps. The gear I had on was the underlayer of late 50s / early 60s USAF issue artic flight line gear. Even with just that plus an ordinary winter coat I was able to stay relatively comfortable for the half hour or so that it took for some kind soul in a properly outfitted vehicle to come across me and pick me up. The only circumstance that quickly became unbearable was when walking into the wind. If the wind was from the side or the back, I was fine. Of course, I've no idea for how long I would have been fine. As long as I could keep moving I suspect.
Alan Brooks:
“You might not be interested in change, but change is interested in you.”
As long as there are time and entropy, change is inevitable. The conservative on tv who insisted on a "right not to have things change" was being as ludicrous as Alfred's neighbors voting for rent control. I wish I was still 29 years old, but that's fantasy.
I found this (yet another) exchange from Neil Gaiman's Sandman comic ruefully enlightening on the subject:
"There must be a word for the thing that lets you know that time is happening. Is there a word?"
"Change."
"Oh. I was afraid of that."
I've never tried typing with a Dvorak keyboard myself, but from what I recall there is no clear consensus on whether or not it is any more efficient than QWERTY. Given how fast people can type with a QWERTY board, I have my doubts that Dvorak would be significantly better.
Personally, the biggest improvement in keyboard tech for me personally was contoured ergonomic keyboards. Felt weird at first, but quickly proved their worth to me.
As technology has continued to advance this is probably no longer true, but I used to be of the strong opinion that typing should be a required course in public schools, late elementary to middle school. The school I was at during 7th grade just happened to require typing, which I thought was absolutely ridiculous. But then a couple of years later I started playing with computers, TI-16, then TRS-80. Then I started college and it really became indispensable. Everything had to be typed. Most other students didn't know how, which gave me a pretty easy way to make extra money. Then, throughout my entire career a majority of my work has always been done on computers. I can not imagine being a hunt & peck typist doing the work I've done. Watching others around me, it's as if they are physically handicapped or suffering from a neurodegenerative disease.
Alan Brooks:
Soon after the fellow in NY immolated himself outside the Trump trial, a MAGA wrote:
“Problem solved itself!”
Was that MAGAt responding to the protester who set himself on fire over Gaza? Otherwise, I don't get why he'd be so crass about a fellow Trump fanatic.
Now, I definitely thought something like that about the self-immolating Trumper.
Darrell E: I can not imagine being a hunt & peck typist
Way back in my farm boy days, my mom had a typewriter but I wasn't allowed anywhere near it (having disassembled several small kitchen appliances, radios, siblings' toys etc in previous years*). So I drew a QWERTY keyboard on a piece of cardboard to practice on. It gave me a head start for eventual typing class in high school (not a normal choice for a boy, my guidance counselor said). In my early IT career, I achieved some fame as the boy wonder who could code as fast as he could type. August Dvorak wrote a book on the psychology of typing, but apparently it's been long out of print. I'd like to read it.
* came close to being given up for adoption
Difficult to recall which immolated is which. (“If it’s Tuesday this must be Bob”)
The immolated in question is a Bothsider, his protest sign read that Biden and Trump are going to “Fascist Coup Us”:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7T4Rz33o3iY
Yes, it’s only that someone would have to be a sadist to enjoy the dislocation today. Though it was predicted long ago—and predicting war in the Mideast is easy.
How many Postwar wars in the region? How many before ‘48? The current war must be ended so that construction can begin on tunnels for the next war. Cynical? Not in that region.
Tunnels are likely Israel's top reason for seizing the Gaza-Egypt border, so they can find the tunnels and incinerate them and any contents.
That's not the 'issue.' What makes Netanyahu and his top aides war criminals is neglect of care to minimize collateral casualties. Even though Hamas is herding their own women and children in front of their fighters, as human shields. Israel should have been rebuilding Gaza CIty 24-7 to provide a place for Women & children to flee-to, when Rafah's turn came. For that failure, BN deserves to go to the same Hell as the entirety of Hamas.
Mark Twain blamed the Civil War on Sir Walter Scott. See "How Walter Scott started the American Civil War" - Scott Horton in Harper's, July 20,2007.
scidata said...
"Way back in my farm boy days, my mom had a typewriter but I wasn't allowed anywhere near it (having disassembled several small kitchen appliances, radios, siblings' toys etc in previous years*)."
LOL. I can relate. It sounds like I may not have been as bad as you about it, but I did frustrate my parents with my habit of taking apart the toys they'd get for me. Unfortunately most of them were not really designed to ever be taken apart, but I always found a way.
"In my early IT career, I achieved some fame as the boy wonder who could code as fast as he could type."
I didn't make a career of it but I was pretty good at coding through the 80s and 90s. When my high school finally bought some TRS-80s and put together a computer class, I was the one the teacher would come to for help to figure out the days coding lesson.
All to say, I really can't imagine coding without also being good at "touch typing." If I had to "hunt and peck" I'd lose track of my ideas before being able to get the code typed out. And writing by hand? Forget it. I can type several times faster than I can write.
Darrell E:
Unfortunately most of them were not really designed to ever be taken apart, but I always found a way.
While not quite the same thing, I really impressed my daughter (then about age 12 or so) by somehow finding a way to fall off of the road in Mario Kart's Coconut Mall.
Netanyahu and Hamas are the best of frenemies. They have a common enemy: peace.
In a better timeline than this, they occupy adjacent cells in the Hague.
Paradoctor:
In a better timeline than this, they occupy adjacent cells in the Hague.
Or better yet, the same cell.
I have this horrifying feeling that the whole Israel/Palestine issue will be rendered moot in the most destructive way we have - "If we can't have it, then neither can they." One of Joe Haldeman's stories started off with a family of Jewish refugees from nuclear fallout, IIRC.
I also remember that the Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem - "Outremer" - which occupied almost the exact same area lasted only slightly longer than it received support from the West.
woops...forgot my nym
Pappenheimer
P.S. In happier news, China is set to market cheap EVs to Europe and the US - of course, our own big auto builders are only slowly pulling the thumb out and considering affordable models. The US just erected a tariff barrier. Will our car companies take the hint? (Narrator overvoice - "they did not")
Pappenheimer:
Nina Paley has the same feeling:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-evIyrrjTTY
When I watch it, I ask "Why am I laughing?!"
My crackpot theory is that 200,000 years ago, when Homo Sapiens came raiding out of Africa, a Neanderthal shaman laid a curse on the land. "If we can't have it, then nobody can." And it's been that way ever since.
Under Azrael's ownership, the land will be like the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone: a wildlife hotspot, because humans will avoid it.
Paul SB,
We could take this as an argument in favor of elitism…
I suspect many do. Hayek was pretty clear that education should teach a kind of humility to those who face economic choices. One of his moderately accurate quotes covers this.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."
———
His concerns about voters choosing goes like this…
"Perhaps the fact that we have seen millions voting themselves into complete dependence on a tyrant has made our generation understand that to choose one's government is not necessarily to secure freedom."
It's easy to hear that as 'they shouldn't be involved in choosing', but he was more concerned with their failure to understand WHAT they were choosing.
QWERTY was supposed to slow us down back in days of manual typewriters so we didn't have the letter hammers smacking into each other as often. My mother had an old Underwood and showed that the layout didn't stop her. She did.
I learned on that old manual typewriter. Still got picture of me typing up a report from when I was 12 and looked like I was 9. Took actual classes in JRHS and HS. Easy A's after I learned to adjust to electrics. I'm still amused at the goofy golfball trick IBM came up with to make them work.
As a result of the manual training, I'm still inclined to hammer computer keyboards. I was pounding away at one at work a few years ago and one guy poked his head around the wall and asked if I was upset. No, I said. Why would he think so? He just pointed at my keyboard and wondered aloud how long it would last. I had already knocked the lettering off the frequently used keys and added a 'wear' polish to them
DVORAK layouts might be useful in spreading the load between hands. There might be a carpel tunnel injury benefit in there. Maybe. I personally doubt it since most of those that result from typing are due to wrist positioning (turned outward or upward or etc) and forearm constraints like table edges.
I tried a DVORAK layout for a while. It's easy to do if you know where your computer keeps the keyboard map. (Buy a second keyboard and pop the keys off to re-arrange them.) It wasn't worth it to me to re-train.
reason,
Depeasantization!
I like it… but poverty was just another kind of constant insecurity. The difference now is which parts of Maslow's hierarchy are insecure.
I also agree that there is no such think as an unskilled job. The difference is over how much human capital you must bring with you when first hired. Most of us are mildly unproductive when we first start. It is OJT that makes us productive.
(I used to run an IT Service Desk and we knew how to measure when a new hire crossed that line. Back in the 90's it was around 6 months in. Better ticketing software reduced that over the years if a company had the sense to buy it and populate the knowledge base.)
Darrell E,
Yah. Keep moving.
Stop and die at those temperatures.
The Inuits knew this long ago.
Air temps near -40 and 25 knot winds are what I faced in North Dakota where my father got stationed next. You learn to walk sideways and mouth breathe air from inside the parka hood. My ND gear was the true arctic kind that assumed a few layers underneath. *
My thick glasses protected my eyes from the wind too. They were obviously at sub-zero temperatures and I got to see that when I stepped back inside. Any humidity froze out immediately.
I don't miss it. My father didn't either. He retired from there to get the hell out before his kids lost body parts. We moved Vegas. 8)
One thing I learned to respect about it all, though, is that we can live in very hostile environments. Even on an alien world with non-corrosive, toxic air… if the air pressure is high enough so our blood doesn't boil. Just bring your oxygen. I remember scenes in Babylon 5 where the actors wore arctic gear and O2 supplies. It was a nice touch not to see classic 50's fishbowl helmets where they weren't needed.
———
The inflatable boots where a hoot.
Also, there was no way to detect gender when looking at a properly protected human.
Completely wrapped up.
Alfred,
"It's easy to hear that as 'they shouldn't be involved in choosing', but he was more concerned with their failure to understand WHAT they were choosing."
- A reasonable person would conclude that the issue is education. But since Social Darwinism sits so deep in the American mythos, a whole lot of people here are not especially reasonable. With that as an assumption set running through so many people's schemata, it's easy to see how most people who are obsessed with economics would make the first, elitist, assumption. Experiments have shown that the only people who behave with the level of self interest that traditional economists claim are universal are the economists themselves. Like a lot of people, they presume that what they find in their own navels must be in everyone's.
This morning I caught an interview with a nutritionist that I thought made a very good point. The guy was of the opinion that if you have not been prescribed vitamins by a doctor you should not be taking them. One case he cited was a study regarding prostate cancer. It had been found several years ago that people who have prostate cancer typically have low levels of selenium and vitamin E. It would make sense for people who have that condition to take vitamins to raise those levels, but until recently no one actually tested, they just assumed. Recently, however, medical researchers tested that assumption. They gave selenium to one group of prostate patients, vitamin E to another, and a placebo to a control group. The result? Taking either supplement increased the aggressiveness of the cancer by an average of 18%. This is exactly the opposite of what anyone would expect. I'm sure some day they'll be able to explain it. But the moral of this story is that just because something makes sense to you (or to any number of people) does not necessarily mean that it's true.
Anyone want some humble pie?
Paul SB
Interesting!
So, the "low level" was probably due to the cancer "eating" those things!
When you fed the patient more it just fed the cancer.
Damn but medicine is complicated!
Which gets to the next point
"if you have not been prescribed vitamins by a doctor you should not be taking them."
But the doctors are NOT going to understand about the cancer "requiring" the supplements
So a "Doctor's advice" is not ....
IMHO THIS is where AI will come in - not "Smart" so much as having a much larger database.
..." the only people who behave with the level of self interest that traditional economists claim are universal are the economists themselves."...
This may explain why I live in WA rather than next door, in low-tax, high-nutjob ID. Not that eastern Washington is particularly nutjob-free, but they don't run the place....
Pappenheimer
Growing up, my mom was always on my case about learning to type but I never wanted to take a class- at the time we had a computer but hadn't heard of the Internet yet, and I mostly just used it for school papers and playing a few games, so typing speed wasn't a huge priority.
I tried to teach myself to type a few different times in junior high/high school from books but was unsuccessful at doing anything other than greatly improving my hunt and peck speed. Late high school they stuck me in a typing class I didn't sign up for, and we learned on typewriters. Shortly after went to college and learned about the Internet and ended up spending large amounts of time typing on a regular basis in the newsgroups and chat channels I hung out in, in addition to school papers, and ended up typing up a storm, so now I type very fast. Accuracy is still not incredible but I'm fast enough to fix things quick. Haven't tried any of the ergonomic or Dvorak keyboards- I'm pretty set in my ways.
There's a lot of things my mom was wrong about growing up, but learning to type did turn out to be very useful, even if neither of us at the time knew the reason it'd be needed.
Paul SB,
But since Social Darwinism sits so deep…
Heh. Yah. We ARE barbarians.
Hayek wrote a three volume set in the 70's as a followup (some think replacement) to the big book Thatcher thumped. In it he worked through an exercise in political philosophy. What could we do if re-writing the US Constitution to make use of some big lessons learned. Those chapters are interesting from an academic perspective, but they comprise one huge non-starter. He even said so. The whole point of the exercise was to offer ideas to other new nations that were in a position to begin again. We aren't.
——
I'm with you on the vitamins. I've seen your POV in some of my doctors too. Kind of a "if it ain't broke" position. The flip side is they won't advise against things not known to do harm either.
My doctor recommended I start taking vitamin D, but wouldn't recommend how much because the science didn't really say. We settled on a number and then watched my blood tests. With enough personal data, we didn't have to guess… and I've got a LOT of data now.
I'm looking forward to a day when more of us have that mountain of data at our fingertips. My doctor isn't. She knows some of the nuttiness that will ensue. 8)
"... the only people who behave with the level of self interest that traditional economists claim are universal are the economists themselves."
An excusable assumption on the first iteration of economic theory. However, economists also incline to be narcissists. Thus, instead of noting the discrepancies and adjusting their depiction of the economic man to match observations, they chose to adapt their behavior to more closely mimic their ideal. Worse, they started forcing other people into their mould.
Economics should be placed in the biology department. Specifically, human behavior / psychology. Unfortunately those fields are very difficult, very messy. Until those fields advance enough to be able to make predictions with a rate of accuracy significantly above chance, and until economic models are based on them, economics will be limited to being a tool to analyze the past, at best.
Another major failing of economics is that testing against reality is not deemed a central, necessary feature. Probably because, to date anyway, that is too hard to do. This places economics more closely with theology than the sciences. Or at least philosophy. Just as in philosophy many economists see no need to maintain even a tenuous contact with empiricism, as difficult as that may be, but some do. The ones that do are the better ones.
An interesting thing in the news:
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/14/1251096758/biden-china-tariffs-ev-electric-vehicles-5-things
Biden's tariff policy is understandable, but goes against the auto industries habit of ceding the less profitable bits of a market to competitors and making strategic decisions without thought of their consequence to customers. An example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Taunus_P4
This car was originally intended to be a technically superior competitor to the VW type 1 in the US market, Ford decided to not compete here, opening a space for future competitors.
Darrell E: Economics should be placed in the biology department. Specifically, human behavior / psychology
"The only reason psychology students don’t have to do more and harder mathematics than physics students is because the mathematicians haven’t yet discovered ways of dealing with problems as hard as those in psychology."
- John Kemeny
I thought of tying the whole thing together with BASIC (Kemeny), WJCC (OGH), computational psychohistory (Asimov), philosophy of typing (Dvorak), etc. but that would lead to FORTH (NRAO) and I don't want to be ejected from CB.
Duncan,
Your average doctor is in the unenviable position of having to do the job while trying to keep up with research in the most studied science of them all - medicine. I'm not so sure that a whole lot of them are doing a great job keeping up, or even trying. I had to let one doctor go because I knew more about my condition than he did several years back. So I'm totally with you on AI to assist diagnosis and treatment. Human brains just can't cut it, especially when they are run by human egos.
Paul SB
Tony and Darrell,
For the entire 20th Century economics was pretty much treated like dogma for political purposes. Since Kahnemann there has been some very good work in what is called Behavioral Economics (though Anthropologist Marshall Sahlin's beat him out by a couple decades - but no one listens to anthropologists). The paradigm is slowly shifting toward something more like an actual science, but it's unlikely to catch on as long as the powers that be find Neoliberal orthodoxy politically useful and easy to sell to the masses. You might enjoy reading Dan Ariely and Leonard Mlodinow to get an idea of what's going on there.
Paul SB
Alfred.
"But since Social Darwinism sits so deep…
Heh. Yah. We ARE barbarians."
- Some of us are. Most of us are only part-time barbarians. And Social Darwinism is probably the greatest scourge on society after Porvidentialism. Ironically, so many people subscribe to both while not knowing what either one means. Humans!
Paul SB
As a result of the manual training, I'm still inclined to hammer computer keyboards. I was pounding away at one at work a few years ago and one guy poked his head around the wall and asked if I was upset. No, I said. Why would he think so? He just pointed at my keyboard and wondered aloud how long it would last. I had already knocked the lettering off the frequently used keys and added a 'wear' polish to them.
My mom had a better story. When she first moved to America, she got a job as a secretary for a professor at a nearby university. It was first the first time she had worked on an electric typewriter.
She had been trained on an old teletype machine, back during WWII. So when she tried to type on the electric typewriter, aaaalllll hhhheeerrr wwwwwoooooorrrrrddddddddssssss llloookkkkkeeeeedddd lllliiiikkkkkkkeeee tttthhhhhhhhiiiiiiissssss.
She didn't last long at the job. :(
I play Jane Curtain to Paradoc's Dan Aykroyd:
Paradoc, you miserable such & such.
Revolutionary Suicide is too 'a thing', except the West prefers to euphemistically refer to this selfless quality as 'spirit', 'courage' or 'AQ', as the gun-shy soldier who fears death makes an equally fearful & ineffective fighter.
Hence the long-abandoned 'Death before Dishonor' motto of the US Military and the West's recent, subsequent & ignominious defeat by a few suicidal Taliban savages in Afghanistan.
Alan_B fails to grasp the political implications of change & progress:
A progressive is someone who sees change as an opportunity for personal gain, while a conservative is someone who sees change in terms of a potential personal loss, and no one is entirely one way or the other.
Why not celebrate the recent 'Roe v Wade' changes if CHANGE IS ALWAYS GOOD, why don't ya? Or, perhaps a few of you are now willing to admit that unremitting change & progress are not always unmitigated goods?
Larry_H has things exactly backwards as usual.
There was this group of Great Lakes Naval Station nurses who I used to party with back in the day, who showed that it's not so much "a girl in every port" as "a port in every girl", and these were much frequented, high capacity & fairly undiscriminating ones at that, which is still the main perk of being a scarce female resource in a mostly male military. Your mother was not terrified enough!
And, finally:
Alfred is living in the distant past:
American were 'barbarians' in the past, but now not so much, as urban living has rendered many of us polite, civilized & URBANE, adverse to conflict, fearful of giving offense, increasingly UNABLE to defend ourselves in any fashion & eager to appease.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/29/us/us-mexico-border-migration/index.html
Los Angeles, Denver, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York City and Washington, although completely overwhelmed & fiscally insolvent, have refused to renounce their 'Sanctuary City' status or defend themselves against this mighty onslaught in any way, out of fear of appearing 'unwelcoming' or 'uncivilized'.
So Eden sank to grief,
So dawn goes down to day.
Nothing gold can stay.
True that & even more so for an 'ultracivilized' EU in collapse.
Best
_______
And, for those of you who hope that AI will discover 'the truth' about medicine & what have you, it can only discover the truth that it has been programmed to discover, but not the truths that it has been directed to ignore.
You want the truth? You can't handle the truth!
Especially if & when that truth is thought to be impolite, uncivil & socially unacceptable, as in the case of all those unacceptably CRIMINAL truths revealed by Snowden & Assange.
Glimpsed a line as I skipped past. ALL cultists - of the far-far-left and thoday's entire insanejibber right can't handle fact verifiable truth. Today's nazi cretins wage all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
Not one has ever had the balls to have an atty verify wager stakes over the volcano of masturbatory toxin lies. Fecal parasite.
A progressive perceives change as opportunity for personal gain, whereas a conservative thinks of potential personal loss?
Is that so? Will have to think on it, as all of what you write, for a long time—a very long time.
Now I do hate change, but fully accept it as much as accept visiting the dentist. Has to happen, but don’t have to like it. Too bad: the world wasn’t created to make us happy.
—
Next time we see Edgar Cayce, we can ask him if you are correct concerning AI.
Command-shift-V is supposed to pste text in without formatting. It doesn't seem to work on my Sonoma machine. Wondering why.
"A progressive perceives change as opportunity for personal gain, whereas a conservative thinks of potential personal loss?"
An ode to psychpathy... inbility to expand sense of self to include the civilization that benefits all and that will outlive us.
Alan Brooks:
A progressive perceives change as opportunity for personal gain, whereas a conservative thinks of potential personal loss?
Given the fact that change happens all the time, how does that square with all those polls that show conservatives are happier than liberals?
Now I do hate change, but fully accept it as much as accept visiting the dentist. Has to happen, but don’t have to like it.
But change isn't universally good or bad. Sure, tooth decay is change. So is the transition from hungry to satisfied. Even my favorite example--aging--seems like a bad thing for the past 30 years or so of my life, but let's not forget that going from 13 to 16 to 21 to 25 wasn't so bad.
Conservatives have reason to be happy, they can have their cake and eat it too. They can be religious and also be very materialistic.
Can’t have conservatism sans religion. A conservative lacking religiosity is more akin to a libertarian; without religiosity the social cohesion necessary for conservatism isn’t there.
One of DeCamp's short stories has a wealthy widow attending a seance because she misses her husband, who was - pretty obviously to everyone else there - a slumlord. It's the usual "He's in a better place now, and waiting for you" drivel until, somehow, hubby breaks through and the medium starts screaming in a man's voice about the flames.
Pappenheimer
Cmd-Alt-Shift V is what I use for pasting test with the format being used where the cursor is. Basically reformat to the local norm.
Having said that, Sonoma is causing serious headaches for a developer of a text editor that I know. They've been changing the API he thought would be stable. It isn't. So... the app you are using might be suffering the same way.
(Happens I guess in early revisions as they frantically try to fix things not caught in the *.0 release.)
----
A progressive perceives change as opportunity for personal gain, whereas a conservative thinks of potential personal loss?
WAY too personal for a progressive's POV. Simplistic in the wrong way.
From my experience, progressives think a lot about losses associated with NO changes. For example, pick some genius contribution to civilization that came from a woman and then work backwards to the changes required to enable her. Stasis creates opportunity costs.
Larry,
It isn't too hard to explain why conservatives are often happy based on neurochemistry. A majority of conservatives have serotonin-dominant temperaments. How often have you heard about the politeness and general friendliness of southern or rural people? With dopamine types, they can be very happy, and very social people, as long as they have no reason to suspect that anyone around them is different in any way. I've shaken the hands of many a person who I think are disgusting pigs, but they saw me as a white male and I gave them no reason to suspect that I might not be like them. The other type that tends toward conservatism are testosterone types, who are all about domination and control. As long as they have gullible serotonin types to manipulate, they can be fairly happy, they they often suffer from insatiability.
On the other hand, progressives are more likely to be either dopamine or oxytocin types. Dopamine people want constant stimulation, so they actually like things and people who are different. Oxytocin types are highly social people who want everyone to be happy and sing Kumbiah together, so it's obvious why they are progressive.
Paul SB
Alfred Differ:
From my experience, progressives think a lot about losses associated with NO changes.
I think you're right there. If conservatives stand athwart history shouting "Stop!" then liberals shout "Fire!" in a crowded theater that really is on fire. And in the scheme of things, it's easier to get people to stay put than to rouse them to necessary action.
Recall the original Poseidon Adventure where the old conservative religious leader--a rabbi, I believe--led his group of people down to where the officers were, even though they would all have drowned by then, juxtaposed with the brash younger preacher leading his group to the keel where, even as unlikely as it seemed, there was a chance of rescue.
(Man, at 12 years old, I never caught all of the blatant religious imagery in that film)
Paul SB:
to explain why conservatives are often happy
But are they really as happy as all that? Seems to me that conservatives are happy when they're being mean to people they don't like. Other than that, they're alternately fearful or angry all the time.
I may be skewed in my perceptions by Trump-era "conservatism", which seems quite different from the 20th century version.
The neurotransmitters discussion is interesting - psychology is indeed everything. Even up here in overly polite Canada, one notices the coarsening of society (driving, shopping, queues). Rules and norms are for suckers. Common decency and delayed gratification are for losers. Civilization is a scam.
Recently my wife and I were having a coffee at McD's. She was playing peek-a-boo with a little guy about a year old at the next table. It was a two-way Shiva dance, with the world winking in and out of existence. It occurred to me that the current bizzaro trends of cultism, romanticism, and solipsism might simply come down to object permanence. Piaget argued that it's a threshold that's crossed in early childhood. But is that true in all cases? And even if it is, might not later regression into narcissism be possible? It would explain a lot very elegantly.
Pleasure is confused with happiness.
The 'conservatives' do not conserve, and they are not happy.
Paradoctor:
The 'conservatives' do not conserve, and they are not happy.
Maybe that's why? :)
Seriously, my sense is that they are only happy when they are punching down and making someone they don't like cry. Otherwise, they're either in a rage or fearful, depending on what they last saw on FOX. But I also keep reading about how conservatives are more happy than liberals. So I'm trying to reconcile.
Way to not put up with nonsense. A breath of fresh air.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/May16-4.html
Here is a poll that really should knock your socks off. It's the latest from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, and it included asking whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do more in a second term to weaken democracy. Overall, it was a near tie between the two, as 46% of respondents said Biden would weaken democracy as opposed to 48% of respondents who said Trump would. Among independents, 53% said Biden would weaken democracy as compared to 42% for Trump.
Whoa! There is one candidate on the ballot next year who has done more to weaken democracy than, arguably, all of his predecessors combined. This candidate politicized the position of attorney general, tried to use foreign aid to advance his own personal goals, tried to overturn an election result and, oh yeah, fomented an insurrection at the Capitol. If he's reelected, he has plans to implement some variant of fascism, and he almost certainly will try not to leave office when his term is up. The other candidate is tied with roughly 40 of his predecessors, Democratic, Republican, Democratic-Republican and Whig, with a score of 0 on a scale of 0 to 10, when 0 is "tried their level best to honor the Constitution" and 10 is "Trump."
Although this is nominally a subjective judgment, it's certainly clear to us that there's an objectively right answer as to which candidate is far and away the least likely to weaken democracy. If you accept that premise, then here are some theories as to what might be going on:
+ Trump supporters are being oversampled
+ Jokesters/Saboteurs are being oversampled
+ People who represent themselves as independents, but are not, are being oversampled
+ That Fox propaganda is propagating (propagandating?) very widely
+ Some voters want to ban abortion so badly, they are willing to deep six democracy to do so
+ Because it's a squishy question, some respondents are adopting... unorthodox interpretations. For example, "Joe Biden supports Israel, so he's a threat to democracy."
Anyhow, it continues the theme of this mini-series: There is good reason to take current polling, regardless of what it says or who it favors, with multiple grains of salt.
LH... typically, that article writhed and avoided THE real reason why the polls show a close Biden-Trump race.
FThat reason is frippy-preening leftist flakes who vomit at the very idea of devoting anything like loyalty or support to any white ortho male authority figure, no matter how many good things are being done by the broad coalition that he leads... or that the coalition he leads is the only force on Earth that can save the nation and the planet.
The sooner fellows like you realize it... that Maher is right that our own sanctimony junkies betrayed Gore and gave us Bush, betrayed Hillary and gave us Trump... and are on course to do the same again... the sooner you can join the real action to make a difference. Hammering those sanctimony-junkie traitors HARD!
"If you go flouncing after the next Nader/Stein bullshit, we will never, ever, ever forgive you."
Dr Brin:
The sooner fellows like you realize it...
I can't speak for other fellows, but I certainly realize it. I'm the one comparing President Biden to the lead character in Jesus Christ, Superstar. I may have voted for him as a non-Trump placeholder last time, but I'm voting enthusiastically for him now that I've seen the guy in action--just as I did for Hillary in 2016.
With my daughter graduating college recently, I had occasion to speak with my sister-in-law, who is the Alex P Keaton of my wife's family--a Republican in a family of Democrats. I elicited from her some disgust at Trump, but she had to counter with how deathly afraid she is of doddering old senile Joe Biden being re-elected. So, yes, there are nominal-liberals who say they can't vote for Biden, and that may cost us democracy. But it's not all on them. There are nominally-Never-Trump Republicans who nonetheless can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, thereby also allowing Trump to win.
And of course, the Michigan Arabs who prefer a Trump presidency to a Biden one because things can't possibly be worse for Palestinians than they are under this president. Whatever category they fall into, they're not "fellows like me."
Hammering those sanctimony-junkie traitors HARD!
I have been trying to convince a progressive on OSC's old board (Mr. Card has completely gone off the internet, but someone else is keeping the forum going--but that's another subject...), but it's not that simple.
He is frustrated that progressives are getting the short-shrift from Democratic leadership, and sees no way to influence them other than withholding his vote.
I have pointed out that things would be much worse for the things he cares about if Trump wins, but that doesn't address his main concern of having more of a voice in the party.
It doesn't help that he's in Texas and knows his vote probably won't matter anyway...
I think he will still vote for Biden in the end, but it was no use pounding on him. Just trying to tell him that Trump would be worse elicited a response of "you're not going to get me to be an enthusiastic Biden supporter." :(
It's the problem with any single-issue voter. If neither side satisfies their issue, they feel abandoned, much like those Republicans that turned to Trump, and they are no longer rational. Logic and reasoning won't change their minds, and the harder you push, the more you make them dig in their heels. You might as well try to hammer a Trump supporter.
There have always been such single-issue voters (or non-voters), and the Democrats have prevailed without them before. And while they could tip the election (if they don't happen to live in Texas :) ), other groups could do it, too (such as Haley voters, or moderate anti-abortion voters, or minority voters moving to Trump, or uninspired voters too lazy to vote this time). With the polls so close, any small group could tip it one way or the other. There will be plenty of blame to spread around if Trump wins (God forbid!).
I'll keep encouraging the ones I meet to vote and keep showing them the reasons why they need to, but pushing too hard could just alienate them for this AND the next election (if there is one). And don't blame me (or "Democrats", like Maher does ;) ) if we can't reach them. Some people are simply beyond reach.
A F Rey:
It's the problem with any single-issue voter. If neither side satisfies their issue, they feel abandoned, much like those Republicans that turned to Trump, and they are no longer rational.
Though I don't like it, I can understand a single-issue voter who votes for the candidate who supports them on that issue regardless of how bad he is on others. Trump voters whose single issue was abortion (or the supreme court, which amounted to the same thing) did act rationally, despite maybe not always being happy about the outcome afterwards. Same with those whose single issue was tax cuts or deregulation.
I can't wrap my head around those who want so much to punish Joe Biden personally for complicity in harming Palestinians that they are openly willing to allow the election of a president and a party who will be orders of magnitude worse for Palestinians. They're voting against their own interest on their single issue. I can only describe it as an id-driven tantrum.
A F Rey:
He is frustrated that progressives are getting the short-shrift from Democratic leadership, and sees no way to influence them other than withholding his vote.
That would actually be better if both sides did it--if the MTGs of the world who feel betrayed by the Republican Party also withheld their vote. Unfortunately, those who like even one Republican position tend to vote Republican, whereas Democratic voters want someone who agrees with them on everything.
Republicans fall in line. Democrats want only to fall in love.
Can’t have conservatism sans religion (and) progressives think a lot about losses associated with NO changes.
You're committing a logical error by confusing progress & conservation with religious & political affiliation, as many progressives are religious (as in the case of those who wish to 'heal the world') and many conservatives are not (as in the case of those who choose to defend the status quo).
Dr. Brin is a case in point, as he celebrates the dawning libertarian 'Age of the Amateur' (aka 'decentralization') as progress while vigorously defending the "FBI/Intel/Military officer corps" fact-using professional tradition of centralized hierarchical authority. An apparent contradiction? I think not.
This is a contradiction in appearance only which resolves itself when viewed through the lens of self-interest, as individual self-interest is the sole determinant of what constitutes progress (a chance at personal gain) & conservation (an attempt to avoid personal loss).
Self-identifying as both a libertarian & a member of the fact-using professional caste, it is in Dr. Brin's self-interest to simultaneously define libertarian decentralization as 'positive change' and any degradation of personal professional caste-based authority as 'negative change'. QED.
The most interesting aspect of this logical construct is the argument that personal self-interest (mine, yours, Dr. Brin's, etc) is somehow UNIVERSAL when it clearly is not, and this is where the Conflict Resolution Game comes into play.
Although many prefer to think about 'conflict resolution' as a discipline, it is more of a GAME in the sense of "Games People Play" (Eric Berne, 1964) and Dr. Brin is our resident expert here, as seen in his essay "Disputation Arenas", linked below:
https://kb.osu.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/a3184391-e24c-5498-9040-15d034c791a2/content
Once you've read this essay (if you so choose), we can talk more about this rather mechanistic & intrinsically manipulative approach and how it directly relates to certain aspects of behaviorism.
Best
______
By dismissing the 'single-issue voter' who won't support what you support, you're missing the forest for the trees since it's personal self-interest all the way down, theirs & not yours, so why should they support you when you won't support them?
A F Rey:
It's the problem with any single-issue voter. If neither side satisfies their issue, they feel abandoned,
If neither side satisfies their issue, there might be a good reason why their issue is flawed.
When Republicans and Democrats both agree on something, that usually means there is broad consensus for that position. For example, both parties would broadly support a bill forbidding the sale of bottled urine as a drink for children.* If you are in favor of bottling and selling urine as a kids' drink, you will be abandoned by both parties. That's a feature, not a bug.
* I would once have said "Neither party supports shooting puppies," but that Rubicon has been crossed now.
Dr Brin:
typically, that article writhed and avoided THE real reason why the polls show a close Biden-Trump race.
That post was not about how close the polls show Biden or Trump winning the election. It was about how close certain polls show people claiming Biden and Trump are essentially equally likely to subvert democracy. I'm sorry, but that's just insane. "Asked what color the White House is painted, 52% of independents said chartruse while 48% of Republicans said teal."
The Silly Party sketch has come to life.
LH remind your sister-in-law that “it’s the appointments, stupid.” Across Carter, Clinton, Obama, Biden, just ONE indictment for malfeasance of office vs over a hundred during Republican admins. The ratio holds for ANY kind of indictments or criminal convictions. And also for the ration of actual, proved child molesters.
…and now the entire GOP (no exceptions) is waging all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
In that context, compare Trump’s long, long chain of horrific appointments and HE AGREES that most of his appointments were ‘terrible people”!
If Old Joe keeps appointing wonderful brilliant, dedicated, honest grownups like Antony Blinken… who the hell CARES IF HE NAPS?
Ask her to compare rates of turpitudes (of all kind) and tax parasitism in blue states vs red (except Utah.)
As for OSC… he is a self-declared enemy of every single aspect of the Enlightenment Experiment, including democracy and even freedom for those who aren’t his beloved demigods.
Link your friend to this ans ask him if he actually… actually… knows a damn thing about the Pelosi miracle bills of 2021-2. He is probably an ignorant sanctimony junky yammering about failures to listen to liberals when everything they want depends utterly on the blue coalition.
TODAY the CFPB held onto its power to protect poor consumers. Ask if he even knows what that is.
As for the sewer spill, now he’d just desperately raving LOOK AT ME! If he limits his spews to 1-2 times a week, it’s one thing. Now he simply daring me to ban him. The pretense of being among the ‘courteous’ clade, when he’s dropping his pants and shitting where his sickness is unwanted, is frantic hypocrisy.
‘Healing the world’ is spiritual.. that is to say, I’d define such as metaphysical without being comprehensively organized—as organized religion is.
Progressives holding hands and singing kumbayah are not houses of worship, with their elaborate rites & rituals.
Dr Brin:
Now he simply daring me to ban him.
It's just as easy to ignore him. I've done so since last October with no inclination to even dip a toe in the water.
remind your sister-in-law that “it’s the appointments, stupid.”
I try, but to her, it all just comes across as Democrats bullying a Republican into repudiating her values. She's in a situation similar to our good friend Tacitus who feels besieged on all sides by liberals, not seeing the larger picture that we're the ones besieged on all sides except within our small but plucky communities.
And she lives in Georgia, so her vote matters more than yours or mine. I might have to be satisfied that Trump loses "half a game" in the standings because she won't vote for him. That's better than when a likely-Democratic voter throws their vote away to Jill Stein or RFK Jr, which is like Trump winning half a game.
He is probably an ignorant sanctimony junky yammering about failures to listen to liberals when everything they want depends utterly on the blue coalition.
Hal Sparks described a reporter interviewing people at one of Trump's rallies and actually asking a spectator what he thought President Biden was doing so wrong. The MAGAt first responded with canards like, "Well, there's so many things. Everything." But the reporter kept pushing for a specific. The guy finally appealed to the crowd to, "Help me out here." In other words, for all of his Bidenhass, the guy had no idea what he hated the president for.
I don't have a big beef with Bill Maher, other than that he's not as funny as he once was. Scolding crazy lefties who would damage the Dem coalition is good. But doing a sloppily researched hatchet job on a close ally isn't. The bad guys must have loved that Maher piece.
"DEBUNKED: Bill Maher On Canada"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4_jLVsKn0s
(sources listed in full description under video)
If the Enlightenment fizzles, it will be due to mathiness masquerading as journalism, just as scripture has done since forever. Mark Twain was right about Walter Scott, and also about statistics.
"Mark Twain was right about Walter Scott..."
Agreed. It was a lot more fun being a dashing cavalier before repeating rifles and canister came along. By some of my early reading, the South had too much cavalry at the beginning, as all the young aristocrats wanted to play that game*. IIRC, Sam actually joined a volunteer unit for a short time. He knew whereof he spoke.
*this problem tended to solve itself through what the military textbooks call 'attrition'.
Pappenheimer
Dr. Brin:
About single-issue voters sabotaging their own single issue due to fixed and misdirected anger: remind them of the 109th Ferengi Rule of Acquisition:
Dignity and an empty sack is worth the sack.
Paradoctor:
single-issue voters sabotaging their own single issue due to fixed and misdirected anger:
Oscar Wilde in (I think it was) "The Ballad of Reading Gaol" had a line to the effect of, "For each man kills the thing he loves." I disagree that everyone is inclined to do so, but there does seem to be a significant subset of humanity which is tuned to do just that.
Nah. Dignity is worth quote a lot.
Righteousness and an empty sack is worth the sack.
Moral victory and an empty sack is worth the sack.
Donald Trump's gratitude and an empty sack is worth the sack.
Wait up, what's the empty in the sack worth?
Depends who's sacking what when. Sacking Rome is great the first time, but by the sixth...Five chickens and a bag of groats.
Pappenheimer
The 'empty in the sack' is probably worth a country-n-western song.
My Dad said: "You know the Mayor? That plus a nickel will get you a cup of coffee."
I know 6 billionnaires on a first-name basis. That and $4.65 will get me a small latté.
The old saying was pithier.
The problem with voters these days, and throughout all of history no doubt, is that they are delusional. They believe things that aren't true. All of us suffer from that. But there is a multidimensional spectrum. Some suffer from it more than others. In divisive times like we are experiencing now the degree of delusion reaches problematic levels. And entities seeking power work intentionally to create this detachment from reality. And in times like this, times in which clear thinking, rational assessment, science and experts are needed most, that's when they become the most hated. Crazy Eddie.
Some things might be explained more succinctly. We could say that Ukraine is: no more a part of Russia than Canada is part of America. They are different nations with different systems.
—
As for Loc, he’s infinitely preferable to the uneducated yahoos I talk to. They say ‘the Jooz control the media’; and ‘Zelensky is a Joo’. Etc...
Darrell, our enemies have studied our strengths, including a propensity for disrespecting authority... and turned them into weak points to attack. "Expertise" is now a foul word and "Smart people can sometimes be unwise" has metastacized into "ALL smart people who know stuff are ALWAYS unwise." Which is jibbering insanity.
Alan,
Where's a space laser when you need one...
Pappenheimer
P.S. I remember deeply surprising a Born Again Christian (BAC) by telling her the population of the Earth is far larger today than it ever was in the past. She'd never thought about it before, and assumed we are living in a dark age, I guess.
A F Rey:
There will be plenty of blame to spread around if Trump wins (God forbid!).
And you can bet that I'll be spreading it. Minuscule small comfort, but I'll take what I can get.
"First, they came for the Michigan Arabs, and I did not speak up, because they had purposely caused Trump to be elected, so they f***ing deserve the consequences.
...
Then they came for me. And there was no one left who wouldn't have done any good anyway, having already abandoned me to my fate with their election tantrums."
Oh, well, at least the guy on OSC's old site made it very clear he will vote for Biden in the next election. He just wants to be able to keep on criticizing Biden in the strongest terms possible. :)
The problem is he keeps using terms so strong, it may convince some that Biden isn't good enough to be president and they may not vote for him. :(
Well, it's a small site...
Well, I am back again after a long hiatus.
Basically, 2 months ago, got sick for the first time in 4 1/2 years. I had a severe lung cold that triggered an asthma attack bad enough that I had to go to the ER.
At the ER, well...I received "service" so bad that it crossed the threshold of "gross negligence." In a nutshell, those idiots put a person with 2 mechanical heart valves suffering an asthma attack in a cold air waiting room for more than an hour (cold air is one of the most common triggers for an acute asthma attack). While I had been stabilized with pure O2 in the ambulance, exposing me to cold air for an extended period of time could have triggered a fatal attack (not likely with aid near at hand in an ER, but it has happened).
While this 12-hour ordeal was going on, I had left a pressure cooker going (I was attempting to put steam into the air to help me breathe before calling an ambulance). This burned a few clothes and scorched a bed, filling my house with smoke.
This required professional cleaners to get the smell of smoke out of my house (a more than 10K homeowners claim). I was fortunate I neither suffered any meaningful health impacts OR irreparable harm to my house.
Took me about a month to truly recover, and then had an ENORMOUS amount of work to do to get my house back in order (cleaners removed ALL clothing and fabrics from the house for professional cleaning, plus I painted most of the interior rooms in the house).
Watched a lot of news while I was sick, and one thing that struck me is Gaza has been a disaster for the Dems. Campus youth and young adults are squarely in the anti-colonial Gaza camp and continued Gazan deaths are making them think the current administration is enabling a genocide.
This is one hell of a thorny campaign problem for Biden, and could kill turnout (I don't see the youth vote becoming ardent Trump supporters...more like they'll sit on their hands in disgust during election time).
Trumps trials seem more like old news by comparison...plus you don't have the social media images of Gazan carnage to fuel the outrage to the same degree.
"I recently read that through most of the 19th century, there was largely no control of immigration, and immigrants were allowed to vote as soon as they arrived.
Hence, under originalism, should we go back to both of those policies, and discard any later court decisions that justified limits on immigration and immigrant voting?
The counter to this argument is that the social safety net most advanced countries have created since that era have made an open borders policy untenable.
Thus, an originalist might say, "I'm fine with the "Ellis Island" immigrant policy if you get rid of the safety net. That way, it's a Heinlein paradise of "root, hog, or die," sort of like the society of Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
@John Viril,
Sorry to hear about your health issues. Good that you came out the other side.
The counter to this argument is that the social safety net most advanced countries have created since that era have made an open borders policy untenable.
There probably is some truth to that trade-off. But then remember that anti-immigrant sentiment and immigration quotas were pretty big in the 1920s, long before the New Deal.
thus, an originalist might say, "I'm fine with the "Ellis Island" immigrant policy if you get rid of the safety net.
Thus inadvertently demonstrating why originalism isn't a tenable governing philosophy. Times change, and society has to adapt to the chagning environment. It can't keep doing what it always did and expect it to work.
(A microcosm of originalism would be requiring parkas, gloves, and boots to be worn in the heat of summer because your civilization and its dress code were founded in winter)
Gaza has been a disaster for the Dems.
And that's likely why Putin ordered the HAMAS attack.
Campus youth and young adults are squarely in the anti-colonial Gaza camp and continued Gazan deaths are making them think the current administration is enabling a genocide.
That is a real fear. But I think (or hope) that there's time to remind pro-Palestinian voters just how bad Donald Trump as president will be for their stated cause. Biden is just the man who happens to be president at the time of the war. He's not doing anything that most presidents wouldn't do. In fact, despite continuing to support Israel, he's more concerned with Palestinian safety than most presidents would be. The complaint from the left against Biden is that he's not anti-Israel enough. Those voters need to be made to remember just how pro-Israel (and pro-Netanyahu) Trump will be. No matter what one thinks of President Biden, enabling a Trump presidency in order to punish him is strategically flawed, to say the least.
I mentioned this while you were away, but a Chicago Tribune political cartoon from just before the 2022 midterms showed a man at a gas pump complaining, "Hey, I voted for authoritarianism over democracy, and gas prices are still high!" I'm afraid the 2024 equivalent will be, "Hey, I voted 'Genocide Joe' out of office, and life has gotten worse for the Palestinians!" (Followed by, "Who could have seen that coming?" )
JV sorry about your crises and travails!
Hoping all is much much better now. But yeah, glad neither crisis ‘burned the house down.’
Your appraisal is a little unfair to Heinlein, I believe: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2017/03/looking-back-at-heinleins-future.html
Point is that enemies of Western Liberalism have found an ideal weapon. Persecute poor people and make them refugees, then herd them across borders and voila! The target country veers hard-populist right! It happens so well (e.g. Poland and several Euro states and the issue that keeps Trump alive)…
…and it is utter, utter proof that our preening sanctimony-junky leftists are utterly crazy and uninterested in pragmatic progress. If they actually actually cared about actual progress, they would realize they must prioritize and open-borders must be lower on the list than STOPPING the rightward slide, crushing oppressive dictators, ensuring a just society with fair laws, helping all poor children (both at home and abroad) and reversing the skyrocketing wealth disparities returning us to feudalism.
They cannot re-examine tactics, even pissing on allies – and certainly will give no loyalty to the only coalition that can save the world.
onward
onward
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