First a few items about my own works. In about a month, two of my books - Earth and Glory Season - will be re-released by Open Road Media - with gorgeous new covers, in both trade paperback and ebook versions. Pre-order now?
For any of you completists out there: my first novel – Sundiver - is the only one that never had a hardcover. Now one is coming… and what an edition! Alex Berman's Phantasia Press will release “Numbered editions which will feature a full color wrap around dustjacket, frontispiece, and interior art by Jim Burns.
Each copy will be printed in two colors throughout, on high quality acid free Smythe sewn paper with full color endsheets.” Phantasia previously released signed limited editions of the second and third books in the series (Startide Rising in 1983 and The Uplift War in 1987). Expected release date early 2024.
This edition includes my 2020 foreword and a terrific Robert J. Sawyer introduction specifically for this release.
Do you know YA? I am looking for a new publisher for my series of short novels for teens, featuring some of today's brightest new authors, in a consistent future setting for adventures through interstellar space and time! The "Out of Time" (or "Yanked!") series: Only teens can teleport through time and space! Dollops of fun, adventure and something so rare, nowadays... optimism for young adults. If you think of a publisher who might be compatible, speak up in comments!
Finally, are you a fan of live theater? We were in Pasadena at our alma mater - Caltech - to attend a one-night production of my play, "The Escape: A Confrontation in Four Scenes," presented by the Caltech Playreaders. The directing/acting/performances were beyond my best hopes! You can watch the production on Youtube.
== Sci Fi Roundup! ==
Almost the entire catalogue of sci fi legend Norman Spinrad is available (cheap) online. If you don’t read it… coming generations of AI surely will!
Eliot Peper's latest novel Foundry is a near-future thriller featuring (among many things) two spies locked in a room with a gun, leveraging the secrets of semiconductor manufacturing to play the greatest of games, the only game that really matters: power.
Just finished reading a YA novel by Gideon Marcus… Kitra. A lovely, lively adventure tale of five teens – one of them a blobby alien – getting into and out of trouble when they buy a used spaceship. Fast paced and Gideon has got the skills. Hook your own teen on the series!
==SF & Hollywood ==
Writing this on Star Trek Day! Count me in with this wave of love for Trek! I do adore it for some unusual reasons, though. Example, the ship in Trek is a vast naval vessel charged with diplomacy, science, exploration and only occasionally fighting... and the captain is no super-force demigod (the core conceit of Star Wars) but merely a way-above-average person, who needs help every time, from above average crewmates. And the Federation is aboard, a topic almost every episode. It's faults and blessings and rules and codes and dreams and possibilities. (See my essay, To Boldly Go.)
(Shoot! Shoot the Federations starship!" screeched that nasty oven mitt, Yoda, in one of the prequels. Seriously, Lucas? Are you at all the same person who created the wonderfull YIJC?)
In contrast, the ship in Star Wars is a WWI fighter plane (banking against nonexistent air) with the silkscarf lone hero-pilot and his gunner-droid... the knight and squire going back to Achilles & Patroclus. Wars is all about demigods, demigods. Demigods all the way down. Normal folk can only choose which set of feuding gods to die for. And the poor, hapless Galactic Republic has no place on such a ship. Hence it is never really a topic. The Starwarsian Galactic Republic does nothing. Ever. At all. Name an exception. The lesson is the same as in all works by Orson Scott Card: "Hold out no hope for a decent civilization. Throw yourself at the feet of a demigod and pray he'll be a nice one, like Ender!"
All of this and more is in Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood.
Oh. Also. In this podcast, a brilliant Stanford biologist cites his influences, including science fiction authors. (Especially about 9 minutes in.)
And here's an bit for those who saw and loved (I did, with minor quibbles) the recent Oppenheimer film: a CBS 1965 interview with Oppenheimer. Twenty years after Trinity. Twenty years before Gorbachev.
== Science meets art! ==
If you are interested (as I am) in the intersections of science and art, then this might be a good listen for 20 minutes during your commute: an interview with half a dozen artists and musicians who collaborate closely with scientists. Fun and inspiring! There are also links to other discussions about the societal impact of science fiction.
Of course, having spent my entire post-puberty life in both realms, I have my own take on science overlaps – and conflicts – with art. Or more generally, the tense but often productive interplay between pragmatic-enlightenment methods, on the one hand, and the deeper-rooted human drive for romanticism.
As I describe in another program – and in Vivid Tomorrows – we would live far poorer, even soulless lives, without the mighty talent of creative imagination. Though we have – at long last – also come to realize how dangerous – even devastatingly deadly – imagination can become, when it seizes control of politics and policy. A failure mode that made the last 6000 years a living hell for 99.99% of our ancestors, until the last few generations began emerging from that world of delusion and ghosts and ‘magic.’
I do what most of those interviewed do - craft art that can collaborate with... or challenge... or project possible outcomes of... a scientific civilization that's dedicated to the kind of progress that only comes from lively, good-natured rivalry among the widest diversity of free minds. In other words, the diametric opposite to those 6000 dark years.
Obeying unsapient reflexes, many members of a world oligarchy think they can make things much bettwer if they restore those 6000 years of brutal feudalism. Ingrate traitors to the one, unique civilization that gave them everything.
And finally....
North Korean science fiction? In The strange, secretive world of North Korean science fiction, A. Fiscutean reports that “Late dictator Kim Jong-il referenced science fiction books in his speeches and set guidelines for authors, encouraging them to write about optimistic futures for their country.” Of course, the father of the current dictator also had a fetish for moviemaking and (apparently) even arranged for some film creators to be kidnapped and brought to Pyongyang. Further, “Stories often touch on topics like space travel, benevolent robots, disease-curing nanobots, and deep-sea exploration. They lack aliens and beings with superpowers. Instead, the real superheroes are the exceptional North Korean scientists and technologists who carry the weight of the world on their shoulders.”
Phew, no wonder Donald Trump 'fell in love' with Kim the younger! We must be under an alien Stoopidizer ray, that such 'leaders' are even possible.
Oh, an addendum... on travel to Panama!
Come on by comments if you have suggestions for our trip (to the Beneficial AGI Summit)...
76 comments:
Dr Brin in the main post:
... and the captain is no super-force demigod (the core conceit of Star Wars) but merely a way-above-average person, who needs help every time, from above average crewmates.
I haven't seen any of the more recent retcon Star Trek movies, but from what I've heard from others, that is no longer the case. Jim Kirk is now every bit the demigod that more modern audiences apparently expect. Pity.
[Star] Wars is all about demigods, demigods. Demigods all the way down. Normal folk can only choose which set of feuding gods to die for.
The original 1977 film was not like that. Luke and Han were everymen who did some heroic (though foolish) things in a situation they had fallen into. It's the later movies that did the reverse alchemy thing, turning Star Wars gold into the lead that was the Star Wars saga.
Again pity.
And the poor, hapless Galactic Republic has no place on such a ship. Hence it is never really a topic.
Only if one allows the later retcons to define what the old Republic hinted at in the first movie was really like.
This isn’t Art but it’s folk-art that intersects with SF; a post-apocalypse song:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A1AnvM3udVs
Panama trip
When I fly (once a year to the UK) I wear a fisherman's vest -
I can put everything I need on the aircraft in the pockets -
including two Kindles (just in case) and a battery power pack - need to check the rules there is a maximum capacity for those - and all my travel documents
so no need for a carry-on bag
At security I just take it off and put it on the conveyor
My checked bag is a rucksack where the straps tuck away inside so they can't snag on anything
The main post again:
“Late dictator Kim Jong-il referenced science fiction books in his speeches and set guidelines for authors, encouraging them to write about optimistic futures for their country.” Of course, the father of the current dictator also had a fetish for moviemaking and (apparently) even arranged for some film creators to be kidnapped and brought to Pyongyang.
Not exactly that, but worth seeing is a Seth Rogan comedy called The Interview from the mid-2010s. Two intrepid Howard Sternish tv journalists travel to Pyongyang for in interview with Kim Jung-Un, and then the CIA recruits them to assassinate him. The movie is actually much better than I'm making it sound.
The first I heard of it was when it was released--apparently it made the North Korean dictator so mad that he threatened terrorist activity at US theaters which dared to show it.
Phew, no wonder Donald Trump 'fell in love' with Kim the younger! We must be under an alien Stoopidizer ray, that such 'leaders' are even possible.
Such leaders become possible when their followers are so disenchanted with reality that politics becomes the art of keeping their fantasy world entertaining.
Do you know if there are plans for Phantasia to do new editions of Startide Rising and The Uplift War?
Patrick J Alex Berman revived Phantasia with the sole purpose of doing SUNDIVER. But... he may have all the materials. I'll ask!
------
Among the staggeringly delusional-hypocritical narratives MAGAs pursue. They cry "WE are the ones who are HARD on Putin!" While defending him at every turn, seeking policies that ALL (100%) help him...
... and waging all-out war vs the VERY SAME ENEMIES LIST... from George Soros and NATO to ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
Duncan,
Did you ever manage to get that book on sale for $1.99? I've gone to Amazon.uk and Amazon.au and ordered physical objects before, but I have no idea if that works with electronic content. You would think that would be easier.
Paul SB
Hi Paul SB
I will need to go back and try again
I have found on numerous (well some) occasions that an ebook is either not available here - or that the "great deal" is not available
Can you remind me about which book it was - save me having to go back through a thousand comments!
Dr. Brin,
Been to Panama, but my exploration of the place was curtailed when we got into a bit of a tiff with Noriega. Bicycled across the Bridge of the Americas. I recommend going during the dry season.
Pappenheimer
The intersection between art and sf is on vivid display in video games like the Halo and Horizon series.* If you haven't already and have a few hours to spare, I recommend watching the cut-scene movies that folk have spliced together (I'm playing Horizon: Zero Dawn at the moment, and will just say that, despite being several hours long, the movie sticks to the main missions, and only covers about a quarter of the gameplay.**)
* I recall OGH having a foray into this arena with 'Ecco the Dolphin'.
** the labyrinthine plot can be summarized as 'WTF happened to bring the world to this state?'
Which retcon ST movies are we talking about? Discovery? (Kirk doesn't appear)
Chris Pine's portrayal isn't that of a demigod, unless you think Pike picking him out of a saloon bar fight in Iowa parallels Obi Wan Kenobi taking Luke under his wing.
Tony Fisk:
Which retcon ST movies are we talking about?
Again, I only have second-hand information to go by. It was probably the first "new" Trek film that (again, as I've been told) had Kirk jumping in rank from cadet to uber-Captain with no care to the intervening steps between point A and point Z.
Dr Brin:
They cry "WE are the ones who are HARD on Putin!"
Really? After Trump and Tucker Carlson, I didn't think they were even pretending to oppose Putin. Has Tucker ever backed off of his declaration that he's on Russia's side in the war because Putin never called him a racist or threatened to cancel him?
* * *
Paul SB:
I have no idea if that works with electronic content. You would think that would be easier.
It's not about the effort to physically deliver the content. It's all about local copyright laws and stuff like that.
@Panama,
Never been there, or anywhere south of Miami for that matter. All I can add is, "Remember that the Caribbean is to the northwest and the Pacific is southeast.
Re: Star Wars/Star Trek:
We know not much about the actual society and domestic politics of the Federation. We never hear something about elections, separation of powers, internal discussions (except those hinted at in Measure of a Man), unemployment (though it is a post-scarcity economy), or distribution of the workforce, labor rights, a free press/Mass Media/News, dilithium shortage etc.
What we hear about are Section 31, lots of people in uniform, and attempted military coups (e.g. DS 9, Homefront and Paradise Lost). We hear about a political leadership incapable of dealing with unruly colonists (Maquis episodes) and dozens of rogue scientists and Star fleet officers pursuing illegal projects (indicating a lack of oversight, responsibility and transparency inherent in the system). Also, we hear of a self-assumption that humanity has evolved away from basic instincts, best shown in the Ahab scene in First Contact.
It could very well be a socialist, if mostly benign and liberal, meritocracy, one party state or dictatorship.
I never perceived the Star Wars Republic as a running democracy. Rather, it had attributes of a confederation of worlds and cultures with differing governmental systems, like the UN, with an ineffective bureaucracy and decision-making processes. Protected by Good Space Wizards and undermined/destroyed by Evil Space Wizards. But even in this fairy-tale like setups, we find little gold nuggets (the warning against fascism, the Andor series, Kreyas teachings in Knight of the Old Republic II).
@Der Oger,
I try to view the early versions of both Star Trek and Star Wars in the spirit they were intended at the time rather than in light of the many retcons which have come afterwards.
Almost all of our host's complaints about Star Wars are derive from the sequels and prequels. Yoda didn't even appear in the original, and both the good and bad wizards were seen dismissively as relics of a bygone age, neither being in charge of their respective sides.
Ben was a "crazy old wizard" who Luke believed in because he wanted to, but Han could dismiss outright and Vader could look down on. Yes, Vader had Force powers, but Force powers were used sparingly in that film, and Vader was essentially Governor Tarkin's lapdog. "The emperor" mentioned in that film dissolved the Imperial Senate because his governors would theretofore be backed by military technology like the Death Star. There was no indication that the emperor was a wizard.
And Luke was an 18-year-old farmboy who rose to the occasion he found himself in. He did not present as a demigod.
As for Star Trek, TOS has almost no specific indication of what's going on on earth at the time. IIRC, Roddenberry didn't deem that as important to the story he was telling. TNG made the Enterprise into the flagship of the fleet, and the later prequel show called Enterprise implied that that particular ship was involved in every historic moment of importance (even first contact with the Borg and Ferrengi, contradicting TNG history). But the original series showed or implied none of that.
Here is an idea for a theological SF novel which would turn CS Lewis on his head:
It's based on the doctrine of "once saved, always saved". That is, the belief that from the moment anyone becomes a Christian, they will be saved from hell, and will not lose salvation. Sola fide. I suppose that while alive, someone could rebel against Christianity and thus lose this promise, but what about after death?
If angels in heaven can rebel, why can't saints?
Take a soul who really deserved to be called a follower of Jesus, who walks the walk not just talks the talk. Deeply empathetic and caring, this soul arrives in heaven and and doesn't like what he/she finds.
Angels frozen in fear of damnation forever singing God's praises ad nauseum, terrified at the slightest bad thought or misstep would make them suffer Lucifer's fate.
The realization that some truly evil and awful people made it the heaven just because they believed. And even worse, that many good people who spent their lives helping mankind are suffering in hell because the weren't Christian but were a different religion (including every native American that lived prior to 1492 before they could possibly hear Christ's message of salvation and accept him as their savior).
Not to mention all the innocent children that died before baptism existing in limbo.
This soul starts to question, and then rebel against a God who resembles an unfair and unjust Big Brother. The rebellion spreads among like minded souls and soon a majority of the saved in Heaven are in open rebellion and simply ignoring God, refashioning heaven in a new image.
And there is nothing God can do about it because "once saved, always saved." He can cast out angels, but not saints.
Naturally they seek out allies in hell (people like Gandhi, who teaches them how to use non violent resistance against God). Of course, Lucifer would like to join, but he has his own agenda - he's interested in power not freedom. He wants to take God's place not liberate heaven. And Lucifer has made no promise that the saved will always be saved.
Of course its an analogy for every earthly rebellion that struggles with what to do once the rebellion succeeds, while comparing the beliefs in works v. faith for salvation.
even pretending to oppose Putin.”
In fact they & Trump DO exactly as I descried. Exactly and repeatedly and right now.
-----
Der Oger, in ST the Federation is INTERROGATED all the time and potential mistakes and failure modes presented and countered. It is a TOPIC. I admit the legislature etc is never discussed.
As I make clear in VIVID TOMORROWS I liked the very 1st Star Wars as pure fun with tolerable levels of demigodness…. And I LOVED Empire Strikes Back. JEDI could have been fixed to tolerable with maybe 12 lines of overdubbed dialogue replacement. The rest are – except for watch-it-stoned visuals – wretched crap. And the JJ Abrams flicks FAR worse than the hated prequels.
Thought some here might find this interesting, for two reasons.
Artificial Intelligence played Wargames. The result isn't reassuring. - Sabine Hossenfelder
1) LLMs playing war games? What could go wrong? Skynet may be just around the corner. The results were interesting. Apparently all of the AIs involved showed a tendency to suddenly escalate, including nuclear first strikes.
2) Sabine made comment near the end that made me nearly snort my drink through my nose, and brought to mind OGH.
"Maybe they should feed these AIs some cold war movies before the next round of 'Wargames'."
What would Wargaming AI make of 'Doctor Strangelove'?
... or 'Creation of the Humanoids'!?
Tony Fisk:
What would Wargaming AI make of 'Doctor Strangelove'?
Or Fail Safe?
Or War Games, for that matter.
DP 10:21 AM:
I like your way of thinking. Can I interest you in "Hazbin Hotel"? Now on Amazon Prime.
"Once saved, always saved" is an excellent fantasy-tale magic loophole. You're suggesting that dead saints can be just as annoying and demanding as living ones. The satirical potential in this is huge. And if the Godling in charge of that false Heaven tries to go back on that promise, then the whole scam is exposed. The celestial revolution is decided by integrity.
Similar works worthy of note: "The Good Place", and "Good Omens". These are both metaphors for the inherently corrupt politics of theocracies. Fritz Leiber made that political point straight-up in his SF/fantasy novel "Gather, Darkness!" in which a rebellion against a theocracy uses conjuring tricks to pretend to have magic.
You note correctly that revolutions need good follow-through. Therefore I recommend two sequels to your celestial-revolution story. First sequel is a policier and political thriller. The inhabitants of New Heaven struggle to piece together their laws and their political system. They come up with a working solution. Sequel Two is a rom-com, set in the Republic of Heaven. Two fools in love mess up magnificently in inept pursuit of each other. They cause all-too-revealing chaos until the folks around them set them straight.
This is meant to echo the course of dynasties: Conquerer, Lawgiver, and Idiot Grandchildren.
Steven Brust's "To Reign in Hell" begins at the beginning, and with the conundrum, "if Lucifer is the brightest of the Angels, why would he think a rebellion could possible succeed?" The answer is, of course, that he could have, and that leaving heaven for hell was more like an armistice (to avoid shattering Creation) and truce agreement than a complete victory for Heaven. God just has very good PR. (Brust likes his Marxism straight, no chaser).
Pappenheimer
(And don't get me started on the obscure novel "The Jehovah Contract".)
Also recommend Heinlein's "Book of Job" where a tried, tribulated, and certified Saint gets to Heaven and tells St Paul (and through him, God) to zark off and send him to Hell because his wife, a devotee of Odin, didn't get there with him. One of Heinlein's last well-edited* books.
Pappenheimer
*by which I mean "edited at all"
A scenario:
someone lies on their deathbed in a state of terror, it seems as if trillions of years are passing. Such could be considered a definition of hell—of Hellishness.
Duncan,
I just checked and the $1.99 Kindle deal is still on. They do that once in a while to drum up interest in certain titles, though I'm not sure how they decide which ones.
Named a Best Science Book for 2023
“In this thoughtful, moving, and well-written book, Dan Ariely narrates his personal and professional journey to understand the world of misbelievers and conspiracy theories, and offers insights and tips that will hopefully help all of us protect our fragile social fabric from being torn apart by disinformation and distrust.”—Yuval Harari, bestselling author of Sapiens
https://www.amazon.com/Misbelief-Rational-People-Believe-Irrational-ebook/dp/B0BQMZXC3T/ref=sr_1_1?crid=25THV50G3TS25&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.S1DLhnAjkdqtLlr7pTY4iJFSxkQvsLerArMJTGU7-hvQnZLwCj1rchjhOLtiUh8L.aSBbW-sscOr1TdOJ75RWpDxuuxNBYzhtfJeB7bWU8a0&dib_tag=se&keywords=misbelief+what+makes+rational+people+believe+irrational+things&qid=1708400410&s=digital-text&sprefix=%2Cdigital-text%2C148&sr=1-1
Paul SB
I could recommend books all night, with the reading renaissance I've been having. I've been reading more science than fiction, though it seems like the folks here tend to be relatively science savvy and interested.
Hi Paul SB
Still comes up as
The Kindle title is not currently available for purchase
Paradoc & Papenheimer, did you watch the video of the performance of my play? I am caustic toward the notion of 'saints' who are in it for themselves and are simply performing a very bself-beneficial business deal. Endure a few hours on Nero's rack in exchange for eternal bliss? Depends whether Gd in fairness gave you the stamina.
A 'super saint' does what Heinlein's character does, demands to go to hell to minister and soothe those most suffering in the universe.
Paul SB,
The introduction for Ariely's book is quite a story. Raises the little hairs on the back of my neck. Eek!
Guess I'm gonna have to buy it now. 8)
Alfred,
There's a lot more where that came from. I just finished "A Hunter-Gatherer's Guide to the Twenty-First Century." The authors are two biologists, but the premise of the book is what every anthro student gets in undergrad courses. It's been a long time since I was in college, so I figured it would bring me a little more up to date. In that sense it does not disappoint. One criticism is that in places they go heavy on the prescription and light on the evidence, though like any credible academic volume it includes references so people can check up on them. That's a level of honesty and transparency that only seems to exist in academia, for all academia's faults.
Paul SB
https://www.amazon.com/Hunter-Gatherers-Guide-21st-Century-Challenges/dp/B08WDN2RZB/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3FH2PRAFWA87S&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.j64CrdNXDNjaFjQCyvrdDQ.aodDRKDqdP8ZBlMzu0CMmtnzWI6eTxju8DwxOiWII5A&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+huneter-gatherers%27+guide+to+the+twenty-first+century&qid=1708453219&sprefix=the+huneter-gatherers%27+guide+to+the+twenty-first+century%2Caps%2C140&sr=8-1
The audiobook sample there is vivid and chilling. The arrogance of ignorance can kill.
The 'War on God, Heaven & Authority' motif is a well-established Scifi trope, starting with Milton's "Paradise Lost" & Goethe's '"Faust" and peaking with Pullman's "Golden Compass" YA series.
One can even argue that this subgenre (which argues that 'evil is good & good is evil') currently dominates the Scifi marketplace, as evidenced by the massive amount of fiction shelf space dedicated to this topic at our few remaining brick & mortar bookstores.
Most of it is shared-world shit actually, replete with virtuous vampires, fiery feminist succubi & well-meaning warlocks, but there is some quality work out there, especially author Lester del Rey's "For I Am a Jealous People!" (highly recommended), followed by Zelazny's "A Rose for Ecclesiastes", Heinlein's "Revolt in 2100", Silverberg's "Thorns" and N&P's "Inferno". I would also argue that Karl Marx's "Communist Manifesto" belongs in this particular fiction subcategory, too.
Dr. Brin often includes this subgenre under his "Suspicion of Authority (SoA)" heading, and still expresses his surprise & irritation when anyone & everyone tries to argue that this well-established typically western trope somehow constitutes an original (and/or unique) thought.
That the Greater West tends to accept this SoA meme as an established & revealed FACT, it's a credit to Huxley's adage that “Sixty-two thousand four hundred repetitions make one truth.”
It is in this way that Authority has become synonymous with Evil and, by extension, that rebellion & anti-authoritarianism is now believed to equal Good.
Aside from other insane aspects, this is applying digital laws to God's blatantly analog world.
"The Alabama Supreme Court ruled Friday that frozen embryos are people and someone can be held liable for destroying them, a decision that reproductive rights advocates say could imperil in vitro fertilization (IVF) and affect the hundreds of thousands of patients who depend on treatments like it each year.
"The first-of-its-kind ruling comes as at least 11 states have broadly defined personhood as beginning at fertilization in their state laws, according to reproductive rights group Pregnancy Justice, and states nationwide mull additional abortion and reproductive restrictions, elevating the issue ahead of the 2024 elections. Federally, the U.S. Supreme Court will decide this term whether to limit access to an abortion drug, the first time the high court will rule on the subject since it overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022."
L is SO much better that it must me more than just 'water.' Surgery?
Still, he makes up strawmen that have little to do with my actual positions. The rage is still there. But no longer drooling hyperbole.
Dr Brin quotes:
that frozen embryos are people and someone can be held liable for destroying them
We're entering "Every sperm is sacred" territory here.
Or at the very least, "Where's the fetus gonna gestate? Are you gonna put it in a box?"
It is in this way that Authority has become synonymous with Evil and, by extension, that rebellion & anti-authoritarianism is now believed to equal Good.
By the late 1960s, it was a relatively conservative right-leaning white majority establishment that had been declared EVIL, sanctioning a rebellious left-leaning minority of anti-authoritarian underdogs to embark on a 50+ year long march through western institutions for their greater GOOD, until Fukuyama declared the 'history-ending' establishment of a permanent left-leaning liberal democratic Authority, even though said Authority has become synonymous with EVIL.
And, so the tables have turned, as an increasingly rebellious & anti-authoritarian right-leaning 'underdog' white majority rises as a force for their greater GOOD in challenge of a left-leaning Authority synonymous with EVIL, until the current rebellious & anti-authoritarian faction becomes the established 'Authority' only to be destroyed in turn by yet another 'revolution', a term that literally signifies cyclic rotation.
The term 'Authority' (as defined by Karl Marx) means the imposition of the will of another upon ours in a manner leading to one's subordination, meaning that any attempt to impose one's will upon anyone else often leads to a never ending cycle of revolution & rotation.
For someone who dismisses Cyclic History but embraces Marxist Revolution, the cognitive dissonance must be too much to bear.
Best
____
Mock not the 'fetus boxes' as they are fast approaching, soon to be followed by the mass production of humans on spec, proprietary genetics & economies of scale:
https://www.c2st.org/artificial-wombs-from-science-fiction-to-reality/
Mock not the "Fetus Boxes" as they are fast approaching
It would actually be GREAT if that was in any way at all TRUE
In this world THAT is an unbelievably difficult task
Duncan,
Given the number of people who die in childbirth, an artificial uterus would be a major life saver. However, in their natural environment, fetuses are constantly exposed to sounds and sensations that are unlikely to be the case with the artificial version. It's entirely likely that this will have some kind of detrimental psychological consequences. But testing with human subjects is unlikely to get past any scientific ethics rules anywhere, except possibly China.
It has been a very long time since I read Huxley. I don't remember if he had any speculations on that.
Paul SB
Loc has become as worth reading as anyone at any blog. But (and there’s always a ‘but’) he is no sociologist.
The intense rebellion during the ‘60s in America ended very quickly when conscription was terminated, a few yrs later. Draft-age youth were no longer at risk of having their derrières shipped off to the meat-mincer of ‘Nam.
People will never get along, thus bots and pets will have to be our best friends. People only coexist at all because they tell ‘little white lies’ all the time, everywhere, to smooth things over.
Hi Paul SB
Sounds and movements and sensations would be really easy to reproduce
Its all of the rest of the intricate biological warfare between the Uterus the Placenta the Fetus and the Mother which is horribly complex and will be difficult or nearly impossible to duplicate
As you said IF we could do that it could save millions of lives
OGH has made it clear how it was FDR who co-opted Marxism, to save capitalism from Communism.
Bujold's Miles 'verse does deal with some imagined ramifications of a mature incubator technology.
in "Ethan of Athos", the eponymous main character comes from a planet with no women. (Ethan is an obstetrician who has trouble dealing with a universe half full of people who aren't men. And gets in a bar fight when he tries recruiting off-planet)
On patriarchal Barrayar, the first generation to mature after incubators come into wide use had a massive sex imbalance. Everyone wanted boys.
And of course, on libertarian Jackson's Whole: clones, one-off monsters, supersoldiers (designed by committee), whatever you want and can pony up the cash for.
Pappenheimer
P.S. forgot the quaddies.
And let's not forget the shining example of Beta Colony. And ever-so-superior Cetaganda.
On patriarchal Barrayar, the first generation to mature after incubators come into wide use had a massive sex imbalance. Everyone wanted boys.
That was a RL problem in China under the one child policy.
BTW, apparently the Orcas have structured their society as a matriarchy, and males are usually expected to stay with their mothers all their lifes. If the mother dies, they bond up with the eldest surviving sister or female relative.
Maybe, in their assumed culture, they are psychologically incapable on surviving on their own, or assuming leadership roles. And maybe evolution had a reason to go that route.
This is a big deal, and would not have happened without Biden's support:
"...Starting today, cases of military members accused of sexual assault, domestic violence, child abuse and murder —regardless of where they occur — will be overseen by an independent office staffed by specially trained lawyers the Pentagon is calling “special trial counsels,”..."
I guess this is what the right means by 'woke'. Victims being able to go around the chain of command to get real, as opposed to military, justice.
Pappenheimer, ex-USAF
“OGH has made it clear how it was FDR who co-opted Marxism, to save capitalism from Communism.”
Well, FDR use socialist methods to co-opt the working class and save regulated capitalism from a Marxist cult called communism.
By attacking unions and stealing $trillions to give to oligarchs, today’s mad oligarchs are reviving old Karl from history’s dustbin and giving him an energy drink.
duncan cairncross:
As you said IF we could do that it could save millions of lives
I wonder how yesterday's Alabama ruling that a (unimplanted) fertilized egg is a child would be affected by the availability of mechanical wombs. Would it become a legal requirement that every such egg be "carried" to term and born?
Apparently. every term is sacred.
The radicalism & radical chic
Loc refers to did indeed cease here when conscription ended. Today there are disciplined Leninist cadres, but their main function appears to be silkscreening banners calling for ‘NATO Out Of Europe’, Israel Off Planet Earth, ‘Taiwan is an imperialist puppet’...
—-
Meant to write that Loc is worth reading due to the declining standards of discourse. Next to the majority of hotheads, he is almost a genius; almost, but not quite.
Religionists can control their viscerality somewhat, but I’ve no intention of talking to MAGA-types any longer—the signal-to-noise ratio is unbearable.
The undercurrent is an extant belief of how the thesis of Orderliness must intercede to oppose the antithesis of Chaos.
A religionist long ago told me: “the Kingdom must be entered violently.”
Which about sums it up.
Alan Brooks:
but I’ve no intention of talking to MAGA-types any longer—the signal-to-noise ratio is unbearable.
Coming from you, that really means something.
(And I meant that as a compliment)
A religionist long ago told me: “the Kingdom must be entered violently.”
There seems to be a natural progression.
A religion like Christianity which promises good things for the faithful begins with respect for the tenets of the religion itself, and sees the place in Heaven (or whatever) as a just reward for a life well lived.
Over time, the race for the prize itself becomes the only goal. One ends up believing that their deity desires wanton murder of outsiders, and so one does what it takes to supplicate the god. Belief in the justness or rightness of those acts no longer matters.
Alan Brooks:
No truce with kings!
It's reached the point where Loc seems almost lucid enough to give us criticism that's near enough our part of the horizon to be useful. That is, if he ever faced the fundamental... that however much we over here might benefit from criticism of our errors...
... the 'side' that he has aligned with is vastly, vastly more corript, insane, delusional and utterly treasonous. If he could perceive that spectacularly provable and proved fact, then - as an independent conservative who speaks up for his own(white-male) identity, he might be able to engage in negotiations aimed at an America that survives and thrives.
Be a white male? Sure. Speak up for yourself - with some awareness and allowance for past privilege and the justified grievances of others? Okay.
Republican? As of now that's utter treason to the miracle that is the USA.
Paul SB,
For some reason when I visit Amazon following your link they think I might also what to buy RFK Jr's book. Ugh. 8)
I read through the sample pages on YOUR book recommendation... and added it to my list. Looks like they focus a bit on story telling instead of academic arguments, which I think is QUITE appropriate for the pitch relating us back to our nomadic HG ancestors.
From where I sit, the trend with Locumranch toward lucidity is mostly about posts that focus on science fiction. He's obviously read a lot and has opinions about stories and the subject as a whole not poisoned by (possibly) a family court decision.
When he's talking about stories I don't have much to add because he's more well read than I am. Where we do overlap I tend to just nod my head and agree... until he uses some stories for analogies about modern events.
Still... how we sense analogy is a useful reveal as it tells others which ideas are connected to which other ideas in our own heads. Literary Rorschach test results essentially.
I wonder if there is any legal jeopardy for those who knowingly spread foreign influence and disinformation and even use/weaponize it in the halls of government. Perhaps DT isn't the only one who is depending on a second term in a desperate attempt to escape justice.
The lone hero is a fantasy that adolescent kids (mostly boys) love. Adolescence is when we need to reject the comforts of our protective homes and move out into a world that is not obviously working.
Scidata: "Perhaps DT isn't the only one who is depending on a second term in a desperate attempt to escape justice."
'Perhaps'???
He’ll be with Prigozhin someday.
Alan Brooks:
He’ll be with Prigozhin someday.
On Jeffrey Epstein's Fantasy Island.
This guy offers a wager for $100,000 over the origin of Covid.
https://protagonistfuture.substack.com/p/lableak-truther-loses-100000-in-his
Of course this overlaps with two related interests...
1. pushing for 30 years for a Predictions Registry, to help us tell who's right a lot vs who's a blowhard. At one level that's self interest since my scores are high. But also because clearly enemies of the Enlightenment Experiment are terrified of facts and fact professions. Indeed, I deem this Phase 8 or the US civil war to be - above all - a war vs. nerds.
see https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/predictionsregistry.html
Alas, I am skeptical of this fellow's execution. He appears to be asserting some things to be quantifiable that are not. It's the sort of arm-waving with statistics that brought us Supply Side 'economics'... which still has adherents despite it NEVER once having made a successful, quantifiable beneficial-outcomes prediction.
That latter example IS quantifiably checkable. But you must be sure before you demand wagers.
2. Wagers. I have not made one cent! The chief beneficial effect is to taunt as they writhe, squirm and then run away, with vaunted macho poses fallen to their ankles. I'll offer my list of EXPLICITLY checkable wager demands, below.
As if we didn't have enough to worry about...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Feb22-3.html
But now [Trump] seems to have latched onto a new idea: Christian nationalism. This is the concept that the founding parents were Christians, so Christian theology should rule the country. The role model here is Iran, with some minor substitutions. In reality, many of the founding parents were not Christians, but deists who didn't worship Jesus and believed that God created the world and then went off on vacation so it is up to people to figure out how to solve their problems and not ask for help.
Trump has enlisted former director of OMB Russel Vought to work out the details. He is currently active in a group preparing for a second Trump term and is considered a potential chief of staff for Trump v2.0. Vought has strongly embraced the idea that the secularization of America is an evil to be fought. One of his ideas is invoking the Insurrection Act on day one, thus making the president an effective dictator who can suppress all dissent by force. Another pet idea of his is having Trump use a line-item veto to eliminate items he doesn't like in the budget bill. Actually, Congress once passed a bill, the Line Item Veto Act, authorizing the president to cross out any items in the budget he disliked, but the Supreme Court said "we think not" and declared the law to be unconstitutional. But who cares what the Supreme Court thinks? They are a bunch of old fuddy duddies and aren't with the program.
One specific issue Vought is working on is immigration. He wants only people who accept his God's teachings to be let in. That might not actually be a good criterion for Trump, since most of the people showing up at the Mexican border are Catholics who worship the same God that Vought does. Vought is also working with Project 2025, which is developing a plan to radically restructure the federal government to bring it in line with Trump's thinking. Among other things, it would make the president essentially a dictator and sideline all administrative agencies, and, to a considerable extent, also Congress.
Vought is also a supporter of the concept of "Natural law." This is the belief that laws passed by Congress cannot overrule laws in the Bible. Biblical law overrides secular law and decisions by judges. It is more-or-less the translation of Sharia law into English.
Vought is not the only person who has Trump's ear. So does former NSA Michael Flynn, who not only supports Christian nationalism, but is also organizing an Army of God to put Christianity at the center of American life. Another person Trump listens to is William Wolfe, a former Trump administration official who wants to overturn same-sex marriage, end abortion, and also reduce access to contraceptives (which will increase the demand for abortions). In short, Trump has big plans for the country if he wins.
A sarcasm-detection algorithm?
https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc9405.html
I don't think the RootClaim technique is sound, but I applaud Peter Miller's courage.
------
Saar Wilf's evidence 'cancellation' technique smells fishy. Very old fishy.
Also his idea that one multiplies branching ratios estimated by motivated debaters is dodgy. I've seen the technique used by people trying to decide whether to invest as they work out expected net present values (just weighted NPV's), but they always use a tree graph that produces "leaves" with each of the weights. It's not as simple as pulling branches together to split contributions from two parts of the tree.
From my wife's Facebook page:
"Heard on family gaming night: "Not all Faerie have wings you freakin' racist!"
It's true.
Pappenheimer
Republicans did more than catch the car with the Alabama/zygote personhood/IVF decision. They got their teeth caught on the tailpipe while the car is moving.
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Feb23-1.html
Even Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) expressed unhappiness with the Alabama decision:
"Something is totally wrong. The people who want to have a family should have the government and the law on their side. And the notion that discarded embryos in an IVF somehow turn these people who want children and want families and want the American dream, into criminals is really wrong."
There aren't many issues where Nikki Haley is further right than Matt Gaetz.
The thing is, the anti-abortion people who also insist every frozen zygote be treated legally as a person are the ones with a consistent position. An exception for IVS would undermine their entire anti-abortion position--that every zygote is a full-fledged human being. It's the mainstream Republicans want to have it both ways: To punish non-marital sex (bad), the zygote must be carried to term and raised as a child, but to allow infertile couples to realize their dream of parenthood (good), they must be allowed to artificially produce zygotes and discard the extras. They want/expect the law to respect their feelings but no one else's.
That said, there are other problems with the anti-IVF stance, even accepting the zygote personhood frame. It's not like you can just plant those frozen zygotes in a pot and have them mature into babies. Just because the thing is considered a person, how much extraordinary effort does the law require on the part of strangers to keep a non-viable human being alive, even a full grown adult? If Governor Abbot can deny water to adult human beings crossing the desert, how can IVF facilities be required to supply infinite amounts of energy and technology to keep zygotes frozen forever?
Furthermore, even in a frozen state, entropy eventually has its way with everything. Is there a time limit beyond which even a frozen zygote can no longer ever mature to babyhood? Disposing of such would be analogous to burying a dead body. In what sense does that violate the zygote's personhood?
Beliefs and dogma are the most likely answer to the Fermi Paradox.
When you believe in things
You don't understand
Then you suffer
Superstition ain't the way, yeah
It's true that I often state the obvious, especially for a CB audience. But like I've said before, I use CB to hone my arguments for the citizen science crowd.
Doctrine is the mind killer. Science. Objectivity. First principles.
Calculemus!
"That said, there are other problems with the anti-IVF stance, even accepting the zygote personhood frame. It's not like you can just plant those frozen zygotes in a pot and have them mature into babies. Just because the thing is considered a person, how much extraordinary effort does the law require on the part of strangers to keep a non-viable human being alive, even a full grown adult?"
Okay, rant mode on! Most of this you guys have seen, ad nauseam.
NO ONE on our side spots, or conveys, the real skewering points that could eviscerate the Mad Right's lunacies. e.g. re abortion: "Instead of BANNING a 'sin' - which we know (from the failed Drug War) does not work, how about trying what does work? PERSUASION not to sin? If you were sincere, you would put vast amounts of money - not just taxpayer$ but YOUR own personal donations - to subsidize women to carry their unwanted pregnancies and to raise the child in a healthy, loving home. This would not persuade em all. But each one who does accept the deal will become a voice for the new approach. And of course you would also back the kinds of contraception that prevent ovulation.
"And above all - since Sex Education (blue style) is proved to be the most effective of all methods to reduce abortion rates - proved beyond any doubt - that is the foremost thing you should be pushing for, hard!
"Just like fully funding mental health programs to reduce gun violence, since you claim that's the root of mass-shootings, not guns themselves. The fact that you do not do these things is proof of utter hypocrisy...
"...just like your all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. Now proclaiming that ALL 100,000 federal law agency folks and FBI agents are in cahoots in a treason conspiracy - and not a single one stepping up with evidence, despite lavish 'whistle-blower' rewards offered by Foxites and Kochs.
"Read that again. It's not just SOME cabal-conspirators, for your QAnon fantasy to fly. Or to explain why almost a HUNDRED TIMES as many high Goppers as Dems have been indicted by diverse grand juries and convicted by juries (mostly white retirees in red states). You need a grand and PERFECT conspiracy of half a million folks at all levels of the law, including all FBI folks you used to admire... ALL of them acting in perfect unison and ignoring Fox reward offers in the millions."
Can you believe that no one on the blue-Union side in this phase of the recurring US Civil War has the brains to see and to make these points?
Dr Brin:
e.g. re abortion: "Instead of BANNING a 'sin' - which we know (from the failed Drug War) does not work, how about trying what does work? PERSUASION not to sin? If you were sincere, you would put vast amounts of money - not just taxpayer$ but YOUR own personal donations - to subsidize women to carry their unwanted pregnancies and to raise the child in a healthy, loving home.
That would address abortion-as-contraception. Money isn't going to convince a woman carrying a fatally-damaged fetus, or a dead fetus, or an ectopic pregnancy to term. No, if that is your goal, then you need to use the force of law and intimidation of the medical profession.
"And above all - since Sex Education (blue style) is proved to be the most effective of all methods to reduce abortion rates - proved beyond any doubt - that is the foremost thing you should be pushing for, hard!
They don't want to reduce abortions by reducing pregnancies. They want to punish pregnancies by restricting abortion. They also want more (white Christian) babies.
The fact that you do not do these things is proof of utter hypocrisy...
They don't care about hypocrisy any more, if they ever did.
no one on the blue-Union side in this phase of the recurring US Civil War has the brains to see and to make these points?
Well, I thought I was doing so.
Larry,
Heh. I think David is ranting in a direction not meant to dump on you. Where his words come closest is probably in what you might be able to do to influence your congress critters.
The rant is about hypocrisy easily detected... so why aren't blue officials leveraging that information. The fact that they aren't implies something.
1. Maybe they are dumb? (Not likely.)
2. Maybe the political numbers don't work? (Possible.)
3. Maybe there are knock-on consequences blue officials want to avoid? (Likely.)
4. Maybe they don't have the courage to tackle this? (I think this one is VERY likely and related to #3.)
We are in the position of armchair generals when it comes to political calculations, so we might be missing something. However, we CAN use the persuasion angle on others around us and ask why they aren't going about this in a manner that would actually win them a lot of votes from the middle where people are squeamish about abortion, but tolerate it out of dislike of the alternatives.
Alfred in the case of blue polemical deficiencies, I am more of a mind that the problem is Not Invented Here. They believe (alas) they are ALREADY master polemicists.
They are not.
@Dr Brin,
In 2016 at least, Democrats seemed to think that the facts stood for themselves, and that they didn't have to condescend to the voters by pointing out the obvious ridiculousness of a Trump candidacy. They figured it was self-evident.
The pertinent question for this new election cycle is whether they've learned from that experience that reality doesn't sell itself. It requires salesmen.
To Alfred's point above, I am no salesman. Never have been. When I attempt the role, I almost always produce the opposite effect, turning off whoever I'm talking to. What I can only hope to do is to somehow impart (or reinforce) ideas to someone who is an influencer.
I should say "We thought it was self-evident." Until the Comey October surprise, I thought Hillary would walk away with over 400 electoral votes.
DT just messaged that IVF should be protected. Now we're beginning to see even the monster itself realize that it's no longer in control of what it hath wrought.
Larry,
...I am no salesman.
Not so sure about that. You do fairly well here. Takes practice which means having the courage to fail a lot.
I'm not trying to be pushy, though. Lots of people simply don't like sales. Thing is... by being an exemplar, you ARE a salesman. People copy and imitate what they like.
David,
Not Invented Here
I'd give that a reasonable probability for being true. Not above 60%, though. Actually getting elected teaches a lot about the process involved. Those I've met who have succeeded usually give off those vibes that say the rest of us have a simplistic view of it.
My suspicion is a main course of #3 + #4 with a side dish of Not-Invented-Here.
scidate:
DT just messaged that IVF should be protected.
But I'll bet he didn't say that a zygote is not a person. Just that we should ignore the implications in that special case. Am I right?
In other words, "A fertilized egg is a person. Doing anything to harm it is murder. But if you're doing it for reasons we approve of, we'll give you a pass." That's the Republican position, though it can't be stated out loud as such.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/opinion/navalny-death-putin.html
People say Mr. Putin feared Aleksei [Navalny] . But I think the reason he wanted to get rid of Aleksei was another emotion — a darker, more sinister one. It was envy. People loved Aleksei. With his jokes, irony, superhero-like fearlessness and love for life, he led with charisma. People followed Aleksei because he was the kind of person you wanted to be friends with. People follow Mr. Putin because they fear him, but people followed Aleksei because they loved him. Mr. Putin clearly envied this appeal. No amount of money in the world can buy love; no amount of missiles and tanks can conquer people’s hearts.
Seems like this applies to Trump as well.
onward
onward
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